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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    03 Jan 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 03, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 03, 2025

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. Ipca Laboratories:

    Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceutical company with a target price of Rs 1,980, indicating a potential upside of 13.5%. Analysts Tushar Manudhane, Akash Dobhada, and Viraj Shah highlight that after a muted performance in the US over the past eight years due to compliance issues, Ipca Labs is well-positioned to revive its US business. This will be supported by new product launches, relaunches, stable pricing in its base business, and the integration of the Unichem business over the next 12-24 months.

    Ipca Labs has received 11 approvals from the US FDA in the 12 months ending September 2024. While the company has already shipped products to the US, it plans to file 15-17 more products over the next two years. The company also aims to enter the Chilean market, where the drug authority accepts US FDA-approved drugs without extra testing. Unichem’s strong presence in the US will help speed up approvals in Chile, significantly reducing the time needed for market entry.

    Manudhane, Dobhada, and Shah expect a 52% CAGR in US sales for Ipca Labs over FY25-27, driven by improved process efficiency, new drug filings, and the integration of Unichem’s front-end operations. The company is also focusing on launching new divisions in high-growth therapies, such as cosmeto-dermatology and orthopedics.

    2. Amara Raja Energy & Mobility:

    Hem Securities reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this battery manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,397. This indicates an upside potential of 16.2%. In Q2FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 9.8% YoY to Rs 3,250.7 crore, driven by the lead-acid battery business.

    Amara Raja Energy is focusing on cost reduction by increasing in-house manufacturing, with a tubular battery facility set to begin production by the end of FY25. Additionally, the company is improving lead refining operations at its Tamil Nadu plant, targeting a 2-3% improvement in lead recovery to reduce material costs. 

    The business is expanding its lithium-ion battery and electric vehicle (EV) charger segments, having already invested Rs 850 crore, with plans for further investment of Rs 500-600 crore. The company plans to invest approximately Rs 1,200 crore in FY25 for the Giga Corridor and lithium-ion projects, with additional investments planned for FY26 to expand advanced chemistry cell manufacturing.

    Analysts mention that the investments in electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage system (ESS) batteries position the company for future growth and expect a CAGR of 18.9% in net sales and 19.9% in net profit.

    3. Man Infraconstruction:

    Axis Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this Mumbai-based construction company with a target price of Rs 280, indicating an upside of 11.3%. Man Infraconstruction (MICL) recorded Rs 670 crore in collections for H1FY25, up 44% YoY from Rs 465 crore in H1FY24. Its pre-sales for the period totalled Rs 900 crore, driven by projects like Ghatkopar One Earth and Atmosphere in Mulund. MICL has achieved about 50% sales in the Ghatkopar ‘One Park’ project, with a potential revenue of Rs 1,200 crore. The company expects another Rs 500 crore in pre-sales in H2FY25.

    MICL sold 3.2 lakh square feet of carpet area in Q2FY25, and its upcoming project pipeline is seen as promising by analysts. Upcoming developments include projects in Vile Parle, Malabar Hills, Dahisar and Pali Hill. Analysts Eesha Shah and Preeyam Tolia said, "These projects are expected to contribute Rs 3,500-4,000 crore to the topline. The company will continue focusing on an asset-light development strategy, with joint venture (JV) and development management (DM) projects in the upcoming pipeline."

    Shah and Tolia believe the company is in a launching phase after making several acquisitions and will start realizing benefits in the upcoming financial year. They also note that the asset-light model has led to the highest profit margins in the industry, and are expected to grow further.

    4. APL Apollo Tubes:

    Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this steel products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,850. This indicates a potential upside of 16.6%. Analysts note that domestic steel prices have improved and stabilized after a recent decline. They expect Q3FY25 earnings to improve due to higher steel prices and growth in volumes. However, the near-term outlook remains weak.

    APL Apollo’s current capacity stands at 4.3 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) and is expected to increase to 5 MTPA by FY26. The company plans to set up three greenfield units in Uttar Pradesh (1.1 lakh tonnes per annum or LTPA), West Bengal (2 LTPA), and Karnataka (3 LTPA), along with brownfield expansions of 0.9 LTPA. Analysts expect the structural steel tubes market to grow at a 12% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, reaching around 17 million tonnes by 2030.

    The analysts project APL to achieve a revenue CAGR of 24% and a net profit CAGR of 33% over FY25-27. They highlight that the management is sticking to its sales volume targets of 3.2 million tonnes for FY25, with further growth to 4 million tonnes in FY26 and 5 million tonnes in FY27.

    5. Torrent Power:

    Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this electric utilities company with a target price of Rs 1,709. This indicates an upside potential of 11.1%. In H1FY25, the company's revenue grew 13.4% YoY to Rs 16,210 crore, and net profit surged 38.8% to Rs 1,492 crore. However, Q2 net profit declined 8.5% YoY to Rs 481 crore due to weaker renewable and thermal generation, and lower electricity demand caused by extended monsoons.

    Analyst Arun Kailasan noted that the company recently raised Rs 3,500 crore through its first Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP), which was oversubscribed 4X. Investors such as SBI Mutual Fund, Capital Group, Norges Bank, and Kotak Mutual Fund participated. The issue price was Rs 1,503 per share, and proceeds will be used to repay debt and to fund corporate expenses.

    Kailasan expects expansion plans for over 4.3GW of renewable capacities in the next 3 to 4 years. He also expects EBITDA to grow by 18% CAGR in FY25-27, supported by strong addition to renewables portfolio and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 23.8% over the same period.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    03 Jan 2025
    Did the richest get richer in 2024?

    Did the richest get richer in 2024?

    By Swapnil Karkare

    Born in Tehran in 1979, Adam Foroughi’s family fled to the US when he was a child. In 2012, he co-founded AppLovin, a gaming and mobile ad business that struggled at first. But in 2024, the company pivoted to AI, and surprised investors with its stellar performance, which pushed up the stock price by more than 700% this year.

    The owner of Chinese vaccine maker Zhifei, Jiang Rensheng, was a primary school teacher. Sunil Mittal started out manufacturing bicycle parts. Others like Musk and Ambani, came from business families. What they all have in common: they are now among the 500 richest people in the world.

    In 2024, the combined net worth of the top 500 billionaires reached a staggering $9.9 trillion, rising by 19%. But 112 individuals in the top 500 experienced substantial losses. While some billionaires rode a rising wave in sectors like AI, retail, and finance, others faced economic slowdowns and volatile markets.

    Europeans struggled, while Asians, Americans prospered

    In 2024, the wealth of Filipino billionaires doubled, while Mexican fortunes dipped by about one-sixth. The wealth of American and Chinese billionaires grew 34% and 14%, while Indian billionaires saw a modest 9% growth, beating the French (-14%) and Germans (6%).

    One country dominates. More than one-third of the top 500 billionaires in the world live in the US. Together, they have a net worth exceeding $5 trillion. These are familiar names - Elon Musk, the richest person worldwide, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Warren Buffett.

    China is second with 56 billionaires in the top 500, followed by India and Russia with 26 and 25 billionaires, respectively. Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani from India, Zhong Shanshan and Ma Huateng from China, and Russia’s Alexey Mordashov lead their respective countries. Ambani became the richest Asian person in 2024 with a net worth of $91 billion.


    The tech boom vs. the consumer slump

    The technology sector was a driving force behind wealth creation in 2024. Tech entrepreneurs added more than $900 billion collectively to their wealth -- the rise of AI and the strong US economy fuelling this growth. While tech represents only 82 people (16%) of the top 500 billionaires, it is 32% of the total net worth ($3 trillion).

    Not doing so well? The consumer and commodities sectors. Slow growth in China, rising interest rates, and a pause in revenge spending post-pandemic, especially in luxury, resulted in a $21 billion fall in the net worth of consumer-sector billionaires, with French billionaires hit the hardest. Bernard Arnault, the French founder of the world’s largest luxury company LVMH (which owns Louis Vuitton), saw his wealth drop by $31 billion - equivalent to Azim Premji’s entire net worth. 

    The US is the world's dominant economy, and it takes up a lot of space in the 500 billionaires list.

    Who are India’s Richie-Riches?

    Out of the 500 ultra-rich, Indians take up 26 spots, underscoring the country’s growing influence in the global economy. However, India’s top two wealthiest individuals - Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani slipped out of the $100 billion club in the last three months.

    18 Indian billionaires saw their wealth increase.  Shiv Nadar, the founder of HCL Technologies and the third richest person in India, witnessed the highest jump of $9 billion in his wealth. Others whose net worth spiked include Sunil Mittal, Dilip Shanghvi, Savitri Jindal, Samir & Sudhir Mehta, Murali Divi, Vikas Oberoi and Rahul Bhatia.

    Subdued consumer demand has weakened share prices and hit companies like Reliance Retail (Mukesh Ambani), DMart (Radhakrishnan Damani), and Britannia (Nusli Wadia), while a healthy luxury real estate market has boosted the net worth of individuals like KP Singh (DLF) and Vikas Oberoi (Oberoi Realty).

    What about the rest of us?

    India has witnessed a rise in the number of millionaires and billionaires over the past two decades. However, overall per capita wealth has grown by a mere 6% CAGR, from $2,088 in 2012 to $3,755 in 2022.

    The disparity is striking: the average Indian billionaire's net worth is 6 million times India's per capita median wealth, far more than Russia (1.7 million times) and China (0.5 million times). Developed nations, on the other hand, show smaller disparities (0.05 to 0.3 million times).

    India stands out as an extreme case compared to both emerging and developed economies. Here, the rise of billionaires is well underway. But the rest of the country has a lot of catching up to do.

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    The Baseline
    03 Jan 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 03, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 03, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. JSW Energy:

    This electric utility company rose over 2.8% on December 30 after its subsidiary, JSW Neo Energy, signed a definitive agreement to acquire O2 Power, a renewable energy platform. The platform is a joint venture between Sweden’s EQT Partners and Singapore’s Temasek Holdings. The transaction, valued at around $1.5 billion (approximately Rs 12,468 crore), is the company’s largest acquisition. The deal is expected to close by May 2025.

    Renewable energy currently accounts for over 51% of JSW Energy’s capacity. The acquisition of O2 Power will further enhance its renewable energy portfolio. The deal will increase JSW Energy’s generation capacity by 23%, from 20 GW to 24.7 GW.

    Commenting on this, Sharad Mahendra, Joint MD, and CEO, said, “We are on track to reach close to 10 GW by March 2025 and for the O2 platform (we will reach) 2.3 GW by June 2025. This deal will also help achieve our renewable capacity growth target of 20 GW by FY30.” Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates revenue growth of 28.1% in FY25, with net profit growth of 41.5%.

    Meanwhile, over the past month, JSW Energy has secured multiple renewable energy projects in the Commercial and Industrial (C&I) power market, increasing the company's total power generation capacity to 20 GW. Its locked-in renewable energy C&I capacity now totals 3.1 GW, including 2,654 MW of JSW Group's captive capacity and 445 MW of third-party C&I capacity.

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on JSW Energy with a target price of Rs 810, indicating a potential upside of 27.7%. The brokerage names JSW Energy as its top pick in the utility space for 2025. It believes the company's strong position in renewable energy augurs well for its growth prospects.

    2. Mahanagar Gas:

    This gas distribution company rose over 5% in the past week. In late November, the company raised CNG prices by Rs 2 in Mumbai and surrounding areas, excluding Delhi, due to a 20% rise in input costs. Reports indicate that the company may revise CNG prices in Delhi after the assembly elections, which are expected to be scheduled for February. 

    The company posted a 13.5% YoY increase in revenue for Q2FY25. However, its net profit declined by 16.3% to Rs 283.5 crore due to a rise in input cost. The Trendlyne Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue to rise by 7.6% in Q3FY25 due to rising demand for commercial and domestic natural gas. Meanwhile, net profit is estimated to decline by 2.5% due to the government's reduced domestic gas allocation to city gas distributors. It appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds have increased holdings in the past month.

    Geojit highlights the company’s robust volume growth of 13.1% in Q2FY25. Regarding the volume guidance, the company’s MD, Ashu Shinghal, noted,“ In the past few quarters, we have successfully added several large-volume customers. In fact, one of our largest customers has reached its full volume. For the first half, we have achieved around 7% growth in volumes. By year-end, we expect an additional 2-3% growth, bringing us close to a double-digit increase for the year. As for next year, we'll see how it unfolds, but the momentum is definitely there.”

    Geojit has upgraded to an ‘Accumulate’ rating on MGL with a target price of Rs 1,392. The brokerage expects increased demand for commercial and domestic natural gas, driven by population growth, more CNG and PNG customers, and higher CNG usage in commercial vehicles, to fuel the company's future growth. The brokerage notes that in H1FY25, CNG end-users rose to 10.4 lakh from 9.5 lakh in H1FY24, while PNG end-users grew to 17.6 lakh from 16 lakh. Price hikes and cost-cutting measures are expected to boost MGL’s margins and profitability.

    3. Jubilant Foodworks:

    Thisrestaurant company surged 7.7% over the past week and hit a52-week high of Rs 774.8 on Friday, following theannouncement of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Coca-Cola India on December 26. The agreement allows Jubilant to acquire a range of sparkling beverages and products from Coca-Cola's authorized bottlers.

    The partnership with Coca-Cola was longstanding and existed for nearly 20 years (1998-2018). However, the contract was terminated during Pratik Pota's tenure as CEO, as his previous experience with Pepsi enabled him to secure a more favorable deal for Domino’s India (operated by Jubilant Foodworks) at that time. 

    After a six-year collaboration with Pepsi, Jubilant FoodWorks has decided to renew its partnership with Coca-Cola, effective April 1, 2025. This decision follows the Bhartia family, promoters of Jubilant Foodworks, recentlyacquired a 40% stake in Hindustan Coca-Cola Beverages (HCCB), the largest bottling partner of Coca-Cola India, for approximately Rs 12,500 crore. 

    In theH1FY25, the company opened over 139 new stores, bringing its total to 3,130 stores across six markets, including India, Turkey, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Founder and Co-chairman of Jubilant Bhartia Group, Hari Bhartia,said, “We’re doubling down on reducing delivery times from 30 minutes to 20 minutes and accelerating new store openings, expanding into new cities to capture growing demand.” Domino's India hasexpanded to 50 new cities in the past year. In the second quarter of FY25, the company added 20 cities, bringing its total presence to 447.

    However, the company faces competition in the Indian food delivery market from players like Zomato, Swiggy, and Ola Foods, which could affect its market share. Additionally, Jubilant Foodworksstruggles to maintain its margins due to increasing raw material costs and rising competition. Analysts have raised concerns regarding past capital allocations, particularly with investments in DP Eurasia and Barbecue Nation, which have diverted focus from the company’s core business objectives.

    Jefferies hasreiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Jubilant Foodworks with a target price of Rs 1,000. The optimism is based on expectations for a recovery in the company's same-store sales growth (SSSG), supported by a low base effect and internal improvement measures.

    4. Ashok Leyland:

    This commercial vehicles manufacturer rose 6.4% over the past week after announcing a 5% YoY growth in its December 2024 wholesales to 16,957 units, led by a 7.9% growth in total domestic medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV). However, cumulative sales for 2024 declined by 2% to 1.35 lakh units, compared to 1.38 lakh units in 2023.

    On December 13, Ashok Leyland (ALL) announced a price hike of up to 3% on all of its commercial vehicles, effective January 2025, citing inflation and rising commodity costs. Similarly, Tata Motors also plans to raise the prices of its trucks and buses by up to 2% starting in January due to higher input costs. Analysts believe these industry-wide price hikes highlight efforts by leading players to maintain pricing discipline in the commercial vehicle segment while focusing on sustaining double-digit EBITDA margins.

    The company’s share price has declined by 1.7% over the past quarter. However, it has outperformed its industry by 3.6% points. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates profit to increase 4.4% YoY in Q3FY25, with revenue growth of 0.6% YoY.

    While discounting is standard across the industry, ALL has reduced discounts and is focusing on its medium-term goals, including a 35% market share in MHCVs, expanding non-CV businesses, and leading alternate fuel vehicles. In the LCV segment, ALL serves 50% of the addressable market and aims to grow it to 80% with new product launches.

    Managing Director and CEO Shenu Agarwal said, “We aim for 80-85% participation in the LCV industry, with new product launches driving this goal. The LCV segment has higher growth potential than MHCV in terms of volume due to last-mile delivery and rural penetration.” He also highlighted the company is focusing on expanding geographically and enhancing its product portfolio to gain a better market share.

    Sharekhan reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on ALL with a target price of Rs 268, which indicates a potential upside of 14.5%. The brokerage notes that ALL is expanding its presence in new and existing international markets, aiming for annual exports of 50,000 units. The company is gaining strong traction in the bus segment and continues to secure new orders from state transportation units.

    5. Maruti Suzuki India Limited (MSIL):

    This car manufacturer has gained 9.5% over the past week following its monthly sales report. In December 2024, total wholesales rose 29.6% YoY to 1.8 lakh units. Maruti Suzuki’s domestic passenger vehicle (PV) sales increased by 24.2% to 1.3 lakh units. The rise is due to new launches, festive offers, and anticipated price hikes in January 2025. 

    The demand for CNG models also significantly contributed to the overall numbers. Chief Investor Relations Officer Rahul Bharti stated, “MSIL saw robust customer adoption of CNG vehicles, with one in three cars sold being a CNG model. The company plans to expand its hybrid offerings and enhance its product portfolio with limited-edition launches, including the S-CNG powertrain for the Swift.” He added that the company plans to launch a high-speed electric SUV with a 60 kWh battery by early CY25, aimed at export markets such as Europe and Japan.

    MSIL delivered a mixed performance in Q2FY25, with net profit dropping 17.6% while revenue slightly increased. The profit declined due to high commodity prices and higher sales promotion expenses. Recovery in overseas markets and improved realization helped the car maker post a slight revenue growth of 2.8%. Trendlyne Forecaster estimates a 7% YoY increase in revenue for Q3FY25.

    ICICI Direct has maintained a ‘Hold’ rating for Maruti Suzuki, highlighting its strong position to leverage the underpenetrated PV market domestically. With ongoing capacity expansion, the brokerage anticipates a 9% CAGR in sales and a 12% CAGR in profit after tax (PAT) for MSIL over FY25-27. The stock's target price of Rs 12,450 indicates an upside potential of 4.3% from the current price.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    31 Dec 2024

    Chart of the week: 42 companies are poised for a comeback in Q3FY25, according to analyst estimates

    By Aditi Priya

    As 2024 ends, the benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are set to finish the year with single-digit gains. The Sensex has gained 8.2% over the year, while the Nifty has risen 8.8%. 

    The year saw major milestones: the Sensex hit a record high of 85,978.3 and the Nifty reached a record of 26,277.4 on September 27. However, the year's final quarter has seen a downturn for the indices with the Nifty 50 declining by 8.7% and the Sensex falling by 9.7%.

    ICICI Direct said, “In the journey of Nifty to 50,000 by CY30, the index has achieved the milestone of 24,800 for CY24. Our analysis indicates that the stage is set for the next up move towards 28,800 levels in CY25.”

    But a continued rise for the Indian indices depends on whether company earnings can justify current and future valuations. The September quarter was disappointing for many sectors. Now as the next earnings season approaches, we look at turnaround companies that analysts say are poised for a financial recovery in Q3FY25. These companies underperformed in revenue or net profit in Q2FY25, but are expected to show a stronger performance in Q3FY25.

    In this chart of the week edition, we highlight these comeback kids, the companies which delivered disappointing results in Q2FY25 but are forecast to rebound in the upcoming quarter.

    Bharat Dynamics and Prestige Estates lead the turnaround charge

    Bharat Dynamics, a leading defense company, is expected to see a 102.8% YoY revenue growth in Q3FY25, rebounding from an 11.5% and 16.7% YoY decline in revenue and net profit, respectively in Q2FY25. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts caused supply chain delays, affecting Q2 performance.

    The company’s 68.3% EPS growth forecast signals a strong recovery in profitability. As the sole manufacturer of missiles and torpedoes for the Indian military, Bharat Dynamics benefits from both domestic and export opportunities. While recent order delays have affected performance, Elara Securities remains optimistic about a surge in orders driven by upcoming defense capital expenditures.

    Despite a challenging Q2FY25, Prestige Estates is expected to perform strongly in Q3FY25, with a forecast of 56.6% YoY revenue growth and a 165.2% YoY EPS increase. This turnaround is driven by the expected recovery in demand across the residential and commercial real estate segments. The company is also accelerating new launches in key markets such as Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and NCR, following delays due to RERA (Real Estate Regulatory Authority) approval processes. Many of these projects, originally planned for earlier, are now slated for Q3FY25. Prestige Estates has also outlined plans to launch projects with a total Gross Development Value (GDV) of Rs 520 billion in H2FY25.

    General industrials and consumer durable sectors expected to recover

    The turnaround screener has the maximum number of companies (8 out of 42) from the general industrials sector. Several companies from the sector are expected to make significant turnarounds in Q3FY25. Companies like CG Power & Industrial, Grindwell Norton, and Timken stand out with positive forecasts. 

    CG Power & Industrial is expected to see a 40.2% rise in net profit in Q3FY25, despite an 8.8% decline in Q2FY25. The decline was due to higher material costs and other expenses. The company, which specializes in electrical equipment, automation, and industrial solutions, has a strong order book of Rs 7,831 crore. In November, it won a Rs 500-600 crore order for the Kavach train protection system from Chittaranjan Locomotive Works, with execution expected within a year.

    Grindwell Norton, which saw a modest 4% YoY revenue growth and a 4.7% decline in net profit in Q2FY25, is projected to post a 15.8% YoY revenue growth and 18.7% YoY EPS growth in Q3FY25. The company's performance in Q2 was impacted by margin declines in the ceramics & plastics and digital services segments, along with lower-than-expected growth in the abrasives segment. In H1FY25, the abrasives segment grew 5.5% YoY to Rs 350 crore, accounting for nearly 50% of total revenue of Rs 710 crore. Moving forward, growth in the abrasives segment is set to be driven by opportunities in solar glass edge grinding, increased demand for high-productivity solutions in steel and construction, and the expansion of non-woven products into new market segments. 

    Similarly, companies from the consumer durables sector are expected to deliver positive results in the upcoming quarter. Finolex Cables is expected to recover in Q3FY25 with 11.6% YoY revenue growth and 7.8% EPS growth. In Q2FY25, net profit declined by 23.5% due to volatility in input prices, inventory loss, and destocking. However, stable input costs, improving margins and higher volumes are expected to drive growth in the upcoming quarter. Strong demand from the real estate sector and increased government spending are expected to boost wire and power cable volumes. 

    Kajaria Ceramics, India’s largest ceramic and vitrified tile manufacturer, expects a positive Q3FY25 with 10.5% revenue growth and 12.2% EPS growth after weak Q2FY25 results. Strong domestic demand, driven by the realty sector and growing exports, is expected to support its recovery. 

    Honeywell Automation faced challenges in Q2FY25, with a 5.6% decline in net profit due to weak execution, softer demand, and accounting changes. However, Q3FY25 looks promising, with EPS forecast to grow by 26.2%. The company should benefit from the government's focus on infrastructure sectors like oil, gas, power, and metals. Its emphasis on industrial digitalization, automation, and sustainability is expected to drive long-term growth, aiming to outpace GDP domestically.

    Strong rebound in consumer-facing companies

    Jubilant Foodworks is expected to achieve 50.3% revenue growth and 48% EPS growth in Q3FY25, recovering from a 34.1% YoY net profit decline in Q2FY25 due to higher tech investments and supply chain upgrades. The company also holds the master franchise for Domino’s India. Domino's added 50 stores and entered 20 new cities in Q2, with expansion efforts set to further boost customer reach and market share.

    Westlife Foodworld reported a 98.4% drop in Q2 net profit, driven by higher expenses, subdued in-store business and rising inflation, which affected consumption outside the home and intensified competition. However, the company, analysts predict, will achieve 30.9% EPS growth in Q3FY25. Despite near-term challenges like lower on-premise sales, the company is expected to perform well in Q3 due to the festive season and new menu offerings. Management expects gross margins to rebound to over 70% in H2FY25, targeting 18-20% EBITDA margins by 2027.

    Dabur reported a 5.5% revenue decline and a 17.5% net profit drop in Q2FY25, impacted by inventory corrections. Commenting on Q2 results, the company's CEO, Mohit Malhotra, stated, “The inventory correction is an exceptional one-time event. Dabur's business fundamentals remain strong, with our 5-year revenue CAGR for the India business growing at over 8%.” The forecast for Q3FY25 indicates a recovery with 5.7% revenue growth and 0.9% EPS growth. The acquisition of Sesa Care in October is expected to strengthen Dabur's position in the premium Ayurvedic hair oil segment.

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    The Baseline
    27 Dec 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 27, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 27, 2024

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. InterGlobe Aviation:

    This airlines company has risen by 5.6% over the past week, and gained around 64.5% from its 52-week low of Rs 2,847. This comes after Elara Securities upgraded its rating to ‘Buy’ from ‘Sell’ and raised the target price to Rs 5,309, while highlighting that the company will be a key beneficiary of the growth in India's aviation sector. The average target from analysts on the company according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster is Rs 4,913. 

    IndiGo carried 90.7 lakh passengers during November, with its market share increasing to a dominant 63.6%, according to data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). The company targets to fly around 11.2 crore passengers in 2024, surpassing its previous record of over 10 crore last year. India's air travel industry is witnessing rapid growth, driven by rising domestic and international passenger traffic. In the January to November 2024 period, Indian airline companies carried 14.6 crore passengers, a 5.9% YoY growth. 

    To meet the growing demand in India’s air travel market, IndiGo is exploring advancing its aircraft rental agreements to February. In April, the company announced an order for 30 wide-body Airbus A350-900 aircraft, with deliveries starting in 2027, and 69 A321XLR aircraft expected in 2025. However, the company stated that it won’t wait until 2027 to introduce these planes. Commenting on this, Pieter Elbers, the CEO said, “To meet the rising demand for international and domestic travel to and from India and considering global supply chain challenges, IndiGo is exploring interim solutions for an earlier induction of long-range aircraft”.

    India’s aviation space is projected to grow at a 12% CAGR from FY25-28, driven by capacity expansion and new infrastructure, including new airports in Delhi and Mumbai by April 2025 and terminal upgrades in Bengaluru, Chennai, and Ahmedabad. Elara Securities believes IndiGo is well-positioned to benefit from these tailwinds. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates, the airline’s revenue is expected to grow by 28.5% YoY in Q3FY25. 

    2. Dr. Reddy's Laboratories:

    Thispharmaceuticals company surged 3.9% on December 19 after Nomuraupgraded Dr. Reddy's Laboratories’ rating to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral.’ The brokerage set a target price of Rs 1,500 per share based on the company’s growth potential and investments in emerging markets and key therapeutic areas.

    On November 28, the companylaunched Toripalimab, the first and only approved drug in India for nasopharyngeal carcinoma, a rare throat cancer. This drug, marketed under the brand name Zytorvi, works alongside chemotherapy to enhance the immune system's ability to fight the disease. This treatment is only available in a few countries, including India.

    InQ2FY25 the company reported a revenue growth of 15.6% YoY to Rs 8,345.7 crore, driven by a 17.2% increase in sales from the pharmaceutical services & active ingredients segment, and a 16.3% rise in the global generics segment. However, net profit declined 15.3% YoY to Rs 1,255.7 crore during the quarter, due to the acquisition of Haleon’s global portfolio of consumer healthcare brands in Nicotine Replacement Therapy.

    Dr. Reddy's has significantly increased its investments in manufacturing infrastructure, with capital expenditure (capex) expected toexceed Rs 2,500 crore in FY25. This is more than double the average annual capex of Rs 1,100 crore over the past five years. The increase is primarily for API capacity expansion, particularly for peptide products, including weight loss GLP-1 drugs. CFO M V Narasimhan,said, “We are developing a robust pipeline of small molecules, biosimilars and novel oncology assets, through internal and collaborative efforts, to drive future growth.”

    Nomura believes the company is focusing on wellness and unique products, reducing its reliance on traditional therapies that currently make up 41% of sales. This shift is expected to strengthen its product range and improve its position in the market.

    3. UPL:

    This agrochemicals company has fallen by over 3% in the past week. On December 20th, the company raised Rs 3,376 crore through a rights issue at a price of Rs 360 per share. On December 1st, the company completed the transfer of its Specialty Chemical business by way of a slump sale to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Superform Chemistries.

    UPL had posted a nominal 9% YoY increase in revenue for Q2FY25. However, its net loss rose to Rs 443 crore due to a jump in net debt and pricing pressure. Trendlyne Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue to rise by 38% in Q3FY25. Meanwhile, analysts from Sharekhan highlight rising food grain production, favorable regulatory reforms for farmers, and significant opportunities from off-patent products as positives for the company. It appears in a screener of stocks with the highest FII stock holdings.

    The outlook however, is mixed – company’s management anticipates a slowdown in volume growth during the second half of the year, with expected growth in the mid-single digits, down from 18% in H1. Anand Vohra, CFO of the company, notes, “We continue to maintain our revenue guidance of 4-8% for FY25, driven by an increase in our differentiated product sales and recovery in the US market.” Commenting on the overall agrochemical space, the company’s CEO, Mike Frank, says, “Price pressure continues to weigh on the overall market, partly due to overcapacity issues in China and tight grower margins, specifically in global row crops. However, we continue to perform well in maintaining and growing our market share in most regions.”

    Sharekhan has maintained its ‘Hold’ rating on UPL with a target price of Rs 584. The brokerage observes that high channel inventory and pricing pressures, coupled with increasing Chinese supply, will pose growth challenges for both global and domestic agrochemical companies. It anticipates that the demand recovery for the company is expected to be gradual in North America, Europe, and Brazil, with a quicker rebound in Asia. Given these industry challenges, the brokerage anticipates that earnings concerns for UPL will continue in the near term, with a recovery expected in FY25.

    4. Akums Drugs & Pharmaceuticals:

    This pharma company, which went public in August 2024, gained 19.2% last week after signing a long-term agreement with a leading global pharmaceutical firm to manufacture and supply oral liquid formulations for the European market. The total deal is valued at approximately €200 million (Rs 1,760 crore), including an upfront payment of €100 million (Rs 880 crore) for product development and site approval.

    Akums is set to begin the commercial supply of these products in 2027, continuing through 2032. The company also plans to seek European approvals for its oral liquid site, which it aims to utilize for manufacturing these products.

    Akums Drugs reported mixed Q2FY25 results, with a 105% YoY increase in net profit to Rs 65.2 crore, despite an 11.9% YoY decline in revenue due to muted volume demand and lower active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) prices. The company operates in three main segments - contract development and manufacturing operations (CDMO), active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), and branded and generic formulations. CDMO led the performance, contributing 79% of Q2 revenue, followed by branded and generic formulations at 16%, and API accounting for 5%.

    On November 19, Akums also announced that it had signed an exclusive Master Sales Agreement with Caregen Ltd., a South Korean company in the nutraceuticals segment. Under the agreement, Akums obtained exclusive rights to market specific Caregen products in India.

    Sandeep Jain, Managing Director of Akums stated, “Looking ahead, we anticipate demand trends in the second half to remain largely similar to the first half. There is potential for upside if API prices improve and industry volumes pick up, but that remains uncertain.” He believes that either in Q3 or Q4, API prices to at least average out or normalize, which should positively impact their revenue cycle.

    5. Bharat Petroleum Corp:

    This oil exploration and production company rose 1% on December 24 following two developments. Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) initiated pre-project activities for a greenfield refinery and petrochemical complex on the East Coast of Andhra Pradesh, with an estimated cost of Rs 6,100 crore. The refinery reportedly could have a capacity of at least 9 million tonnes (180,000 barrels per day).

    On the same day, the company also won NTPC’s 1200 MW solar tender as the lowest bidder, securing 150 MW in capacity. The project, valued at Rs 756.5 crore, will be developed over two years and is expected to generate annual revenue of ~Rs 100 crore by producing 400 million clean energy units.

    On December 2, BPCL signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Coal India to explore a coal-to-synthetic natural gas project at Western Coalfields (WCL). According to reports, BPCL and Coal India will invest Rs 12,000 crore in the joint venture, with Coal India holding a 51% stake and BPCL 49%. The investment supports BPCL’s clean energy goals and Coal India’s efforts to diversify coal use. The government will provide Rs 1,350 crore in funding for the project.

    The company’s Bina refinery project, which involves an investment of Rs 50,000 crore, is expected to be commissioned by FY28, with a production capacity of 2.2 million metric tonnes per annum of bulk petrochemicals. The propylene project at the Kochi refinery, with a capacity of 4 lakh tonnes per annum, is set to be commissioned by FY27. Speaking about the capex on these projects, VRK Gupta, Director of Finance, said, “We don't anticipate a significant increase in borrowing in the next couple of years. However, from FY27 and FY28 onwards, peak capex will occur for both the Bina and Kochi projects, leading to higher borrowings. In the next 1–2 years, we expect a capex plan of around Rs 18,000–20,000 crore.”

    Geojit BNP Paribas has given a ‘Hold’ rating to BPCL with a target price of Rs 326. This indicates a potential upside of 11.1%. The brokerage expects earnings growth in the coming quarters, driven by its expanding market share across segments, aggressive capital expenditure, and strategic partnerships. However, geopolitical uncertainties and volatile oil prices remain key risks that could affect the company's performance.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    27 Dec 2024
    The biggest global index gainers of 2024 | Screener: stocks with high momentum and durability scores

    The biggest global index gainers of 2024 | Screener: stocks with high momentum and durability scores

    By Tejas MD

    2024 is ending with investor hopes for a Santa rally. But so far, December has brought little festive cheer to global markets. The month has seen volatility in India and steep declines in US indices, driven by the Federal Reserve's cautious outlook on rate cuts for 2025.

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell's words travel around the world, and after he said on December 18 that rate cuts would be slower - "it's like...driving on a foggy night, you need to move slowly" - the Nifty 50 dropped 2.5% in the next two trading sessions. 

    If the Fed keeps US interest rates higher, then foreign investors will prefer investing in safer, high-yield US bonds than in riskier emerging markets like India. 

    But despite December's muted performance, it was a strong year for global equity markets. But which index was the winner of 2024? And which sectors and stocks powered the surge?

    Let’s uncover the stars of the year.

    In this week’s Analyticks,

    • 2024 index winners: The indices that top the list, amid tough competition
    • Screener: Stocks with high Trendlyne Momentum and Durability scores, with high revenue forecasts for the upcoming quarter

    2024 round-up: A strong year for major global indices

    Equity markets across major economies have had a good year, riding high on cooling inflation and interest rate cuts from central banks worldwide.

    It is Taiwan's Weighted Index that tops the charts, with the highest one-year gain. As AI investments surged, its semiconductor and electronics sectors boomed. 

    Major global indices post gains in the past year

    The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also delivered. India's Nifty 500, rose over 18% in the past year. This is despite falling sharply in the past quarter due to FII selling and muted Q2 results. 

    China’s Shanghai Composite recovered from its lows after a massive government stimulus, helping the index rise 23% in the past quarter. 

    When looking at five-year performance, the Nasdaq 100 emerges as the leader, followed by India’s Nifty 500. On the flip side, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, the FTSE 100, and the Shanghai Composite have lagged. 

    The top stock gainers in the respective indices indicate tech as the top performer for the US, while finance, energy and industrials won elsewhere.

    Top-performing stocks across global indices in 2024

    The US has dominated global tech in 2024, thanks to AI investments by the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla).

    But 2025 may be more muted. These stocks rose on the promise of the AI investments they made in 2024. Now comes the hard part: these investments have to show financial gains.

    Central bankers gave stock markets a boost (except for the RBI)

    Central Banks shifted their interest rate policies in 2024. When inflation rose to record levels in 2022, major central banks had raised interest rates. Now with the exception of RBI, most central banks are cutting rates.

    RBI yet to start with rate cuts

    Lower interest rates allow companies and people to borrow money cheaply, driving consumption and boosting the economy. The Euro zone was among the first to cut interest rates in June. The US followed in September. The US Fed has cut rates by a whole percentage point in 2024. 

    The RBI has held off cutting interest rates in India despite the global trend, due to inflation breaching the upper tolerance limit of 6% in October. Weaker-than-expected GDP growth in Q2 and persistent foreign investor outflows caused Indian markets to enter correction territory in November. 

    Which sectors and stocks contributed most to the stock market jump in India and the US? 

    General industrials and consumer durables stocks shine in 2024

    Several sectors stood out in the Indian market in 2024, with general industrials, consumer durables, realty and pharma stealing the spotlight.

    Three of the top four contributors in the general industrials sector are from the defence industry: Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Bharat Electronics, and Hindustan Aeronautics, as the Indian government, focused on border tensions, boosted spends on domestic defence equipment and product manufacturing. 

    In consumer durables, solar energy player Premier Energies and electronics manufacturer Dixon Tech lead the pack, with their share prices jumping sharply in the past year. Waaree Energies and Premier Energies both debuted on the market this past quarter—and haven’t stopped climbing since. 

    General Industrials emerges as the start sector in the past year

    The pharma sector has continued its recovery, with falling raw material costs and a resurgence in API manufacturing demand. Lupin, Torrent Pharma, Divi’s Labs, and Sun Pharma are leading the charge. 

    In the realty sector, Anant Raj leads the pack with strong residential market demand. Analysts are also bullish on the company's presence in the data centre space. Other top contributors include Prestige Estates, Oberoi Realty, and Macrotech Developers. 

    Hardware tech, software & services are star segments in the US

    2024 was a great year for America's big guns. The Magnificent Seven dominated the sectors that saw the most growth this year: hardware technology and equipment, automobiles &auto components, and software and services.

    Among them, Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang in his signature leather jacket, stole the show. The media anointed Huang as 'the Steve Jobs of AI' and people clamoured for his autograph, as the demand for AI-related technologies catapulted Nvidia to the top. Semiconductor powerhouses Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (ADR) also soared.

    Nvidia drives the hardware tech & equipment sector higher

    In the retail sector, Walmart was the winner. Its strong Q3 results, which outpaced Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for both revenue and net profit, pushed its stock to new highs.


    Screener: Stocks with high Trendlyne Momentum and Durability scores with  high revenue forecasts for the upcoming quarter

    IT stocks have high momentum and revenue growth forecast

    As we inch closer to the end of Q3FY25, we take a look at technically strong stocks with high Forecaster estimates for YoY revenue growth in Q3FY25. This screener shows stocks with high Trendlyne omentum and durability scores where Forecaster estimates high quarterly revenue YoY growth.

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the heavy electrical equipment, IT consulting & software, realty, exchange, and asset management companies industries. Major stocks featuring in the screener are BSE, KFIN Technologies, Kaynes Technology, Dixon Technologies (India), Coforge, Newgen Software Technologies, Persistent Systems, and KEC International.

    BSE shows up in the screener with the highest Trendlyne momentum score of 76.2, helped by the exchange stock surging by 38.6% over the past quarter. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects the company’s revenue to grow 67.6% YoY in Q3FY25. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services expect momentum from BSE's relaunch of derivative products, new product launches, and improvement in member participation.

    Coforge also appears in the screener with a high Trendlyne momentum score of 71.4 due to the IT consulting & software stock’s price rising by 36.4% over the past three months. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects the company’s revenue to grow by 37.4% YoY in Q3FY25. Analysts at Sharekhan say its revenue should improve via its growing order book, strong large deal pipeline, and synergies from the Cigniti acquisition. 

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    26 Dec 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 26, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 26, 2024

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Awfis Space Solutions:

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this consumer services company with a target price of Rs 1,049, indicating an upside of 44.7%. Awfis Space Solutions provides workspace rentals and enterprise workspace design and building services. The company has a pipeline of 150,649 seats, with over 110,000 operational as of September 2024. Analysts Adhidev Chattopadhyay and Saishwar Ravekar expect a modest increase in seat prices (4-5% like-to-like) over FY25–27, with steady occupancy of around 71% in its operational portfolio during this period, as new centres typically take 6-12 months to fully mature.

    The analysts highlight that workspaces are increasingly integrating flexible office spaces into their portfolios as part of “Core + Flex” strategies. According to a survey, ~30% of respondents plan to expand their presence in flexible office spaces over the next 12 months. Chattopadhyay and Ravekar said, "We estimate the company will achieve a 31% revenue CAGR over FY25–27, driven by seat expansion. Additionally, we expect EBITDA margin to rise to 14.6% by FY27, up from 9.2% in FY24, as the non-seat revenue increases and cost-optimisation initiatives in existing centres take effect."

    2. Oberoi Realty:

    Axis Direct initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this realty company with a target price of Rs 2,560, indicating an upside potential of 10.2%. Oberoi Realty is a major real estate developer in Mumbai, active in residential, retail, hospitality, and social infrastructure projects, and in the luxury and ultra-luxury real estate market.

    The analysts Eesha Shah and Preeyam Tolia highlight that the company plans to expand into key markets such as Delhi NCR, where rising demand for premium properties is an opportunity for high-end projects. The company has around 17.2 million sq ft of upcoming projects in MMR and Delhi region. The analysts note that the company has completed over 35 projects and holds a portfolio of ~30 Mn sq ft of ongoing and future developments. The company is expected to achieve a pre-sales CAGR of 25% between FY25-27. 

    Shah and Tolia expect a CAGR of 17.8% in net sales and 20.2% in net profit over FY25-27. Additionally, they also expect collections to grow at a CAGR of 20% over the same period.

    3. PNB Housing Finance:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this housing finance company  with a target price of Rs 1,160, indicating an upside potential of 36.4%. Analysts Abhijit Tibrewal, Nitin Aggarwal and Raghav Khemani highlight that the company is shifting its loan mix toward higher-yield emerging and affordable housing segments. These segments now account for 23% of its portfolio, up from 18% in March 2023.

    This shift is driven by leveraging the Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme (CLSS) scheme under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), which is expected to improve yields and expand net interest margins (NIMs). The analysts also note that the company plans to open 15 new branches in the affordable housing segment during FY25. Further, they target to add around 50 new branches every year from FY26 onwards.

    Tibrewal, Nitin Aggarwal and Raghav Khemani believe the company is well-positioned to navigate the headwinds in net interest margin (NIM) growth and further offset it with an improvement in product mix. They expect the firm's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 26.6% over FY25-27, with the loan book expanding at ~18% CAGR and net profit at ~23% CAGR over the same period.

    4. Bharat Forge:

    Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this industrial products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,558. This indicates an upside of 18.6%.  In H1FY25, the company's revenue grew 2% YoY to Rs 7,795 crore, while net profit increased significantly by 32.1% to Rs 598 crore. EBITDA margin improved by 190 bps to 17.8%, driven by a favorable product mix and strong domestic business performance.

    Bharat Forge’s (BFL) capital expenditure (capex) for the first half of the year totalled Rs 820 crore, primarily focused on US operations and investments in the EV business. Analyst Antu Thomas expects the EV segment to achieve EBITDA break-even in the next two to three quarters, despite the current slowdown in Europe.

    The company secured new orders worth approximately Rs 646 crore in H1, contributing to a total order book of Rs 2,200 crore, primarily from defence. Thomas expects continued growth in the defence order book, which should help expand margins, along with long-term improvements in overseas operations strengthening BFL’s stability.

    5. Lumax Auto Technologies:

    Sharekhan reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this small cap auto parts & equipment manufacturer with a target price of Rs 767, indicating an upside potential of 23.6%. Lumax Auto Technologies (LATL) has entered the CNG segment by acquiring a 60% stake in Greenfuel Energy Solutions for Rs 153.1 crore.

    The analysts say that this acquisition will provide access to the growing green fuels market, including CNG, hydrogen, and related technologies. The deal is expected to generate annual revenue of Rs 300-350 crore with a CAGR of 25-30% for the next few years. They also highlight that LATL’s order book has reached Rs 1,050 crore in Q2FY25, with 40% dedicated to EV models.

    The analysts believe the company is focusing on increasing content per vehicle, pursuing joint ventures and acquisitions to introduce new product categories, and strengthening partnerships with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). LATL is also investing in research and development for advanced technologies such as autonomous driving assistance, electronics integration, and Human-Machine Interface. As a result, they expect a CAGR of 12.9% in revenue for FY25-27.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    24 Dec 2024
    Chart of the Week: Biggest wealth destroyers over the past year

    Chart of the Week: Biggest wealth destroyers over the past year

    By Aditi Priya

    Over the past year and despite the volatility in recent months, the Indian equity market has delivered impressive returns, with the Nifty 500 index gaining 17.6% in 2024. 

    Foreign outflows increased recently due to high equity valuations and muted Q2 results in India. Foreign investors were lured elsewhere by US Fed rate cuts and recent China stimulus, contributing to an 8.1% decline in the Nifty 500 over the past quarter. 

    Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on December 17, “This is only a temporary blip, and healthy growth will return in the coming quarters.” She added that India’s GDP growth has averaged 8.3%, making it the world’s fastest-growing major economy. 

    While the Indian equity market still managed to post strong gains in the past year, the gains were unevenly distributed. Some companies surged ahead, while others struggled due to challenges such as regulatory investigations (Vodafone Idea, Rajesh Exports), sector-wide downturns (banking and finance), or significant business losses (Honasa Consumer, Tanla Platforms), leading to a loss of investor wealth. 

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we spotlight the underperformers – companies that saw significant declines in their share prices, lagging behind the index and leaving investors disappointed.

    126 companies from the Nifty 500 have made it to the ‘Wealth Destroyers’ screener in 2024. The banking and finance sector struggled the most, contributing 28 names to the list. Among them are CreditAccess Grameen, RBL Bank, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, IndusInd Bank, and Equitas Small Finance Bank. The software and services sector followed, with 11 companies making it to the screener including Tanla Platforms, Tata Technologies, Happiest Minds, Tata Elxsi and Birlasoft.

    A canceled merger and rising competition weigh on Zee Entertainment

    Media company Zee Entertainment, witnessed the sharpest decline of 52.9% this year within the Nifty 500 universe, topping the wealth destroyer screener. It has been a tough year for the company, with the main setback being the cancellation of its proposed merger with Sony Group’s India unit, which cited concerns over fund diversion and weak corporate governance. 

    Additionally, the joint venture between Reliance Industries and Walt Disney, announced on February 28, merged Viacom18 and Star India, has created a media giant valued at Rs 70,352 crore. This has intensified competition, making it more difficult for Zee to grow its market share. The company also reported mixed results in Q2FY25, with revenue and operating profit falling nearly 19% and 3% YoY, respectively. However, net profit saw a 70% YoY increase driven by a 20.3% reduction in expenses through effective cost management. But the previous year's net profit was affected downward by a one-time charge of Rs 120 crore, which did not recur this year. The net profit  this Q2 rose mainly due to reduced expenses and the absence of last year's one-time charge, and operating profit declined.

    Multiple banking and finance companies feature in the Wealth Destroyers 

    CreditAccess Grameen, one of India’s largest non-banking finance company-microfinance institutions (NBFC-MFI), saw the sharpest decline of 49.2% in 2024 in share price within the banking and finance sector. This came after its Q2FY25 results highlighted increasing delinquencies in the microfinance space, slower disbursements, and higher provisions. Gross NPA rose by 1.7 percentage points YoY to 2.4%, while net NPA increased by 0.5 percentage points YoY to 0.8%, signaling a decline in asset quality. 

    In fact, the Nifty Bank index, with an 8% return in 2024, has notably underperformed the broader Nifty 500 index. Banks such as AU Small Finance Bank, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, and IDFC First Bank have significantly contributed to this underperformance, appearing on the wealth destroyer screener. IndusInd Bank has faced a sharp 40.1% decline over the past year. This was due to increased stress in microfinance loans, failure to meet its full-year loan growth target, and a surge in bad loans in the microfinance segment. Similarly, AU Small Finance Bank and IDFC First Bank have dropped nearly 30% in 2024, while Axis Bank has recorded a smaller decline of 0.9% during the same period.

    In addition to these big names in the sector, small finance banks and institutions with high exposure to unsecured loans also struggled. RBL Bank faced asset quality concerns due to rising NPAs and regulatory challenges, which eroded investor confidence and sharply reduced its share value by 40.1% over the past year. The gross NPA ratio rose by 0.2 percentage points QoQ to 2.9%, while the net NPA increased by 0.1 percentage points QoQ to 0.8%.

    Ujjivan Small Finance Bank saw a 41.5% drop in 2024, with net profit for Q2FY25 declining by 29% to Rs 233 crore. This decline was due to deteriorating asset quality and higher expenditures. The bank's gross NPA ratio increased to 2.5% in Q2FY25, up from 2.4% a year earlier, while the net NPA stood at 0.6%, compared to 0.1% previously.

    Equitas Small Finance Bank saw a 38.6% decline in its stock price over the past year. Weak quarterly results in FY25 and higher provisions to address stress in its microfinance portfolio drove this drop.

    Regulatory issues and weak financials trigger sell-off in Vodafone Idea and Rajesh Exports

    Vodafone Idea's share price dropped over 45% in 2024 due to regulatory challenges and ongoing profitability concerns. The Supreme Court’s decision on Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) added financial pressure, requiring the company to pay significant dues. The company is also struggling with a shrinking customer base, lagging far behind Reliance Jio and Airtel, and rising costs, leading to doubts about its long-term financial health.

    Similarly, Rajesh Exports, a gems and jewellery company, saw its stock decline by 36.3% over the past year, struggling with multiple challenges. The company faced regulatory compliance issues, including missing documents in earnings filings and tax-related controversies. The company also faced allegations of ambiguous transactions and lapses in disclosures, leading to accusations of misleading financial reporting. 

    In addition, Rajesh Exports has struggled with declining revenues and thin profit margins since Q2FY24, making it difficult for the company to generate sustainable profits.

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    The Baseline
    20 Dec 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 20, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 20, 2024

    1. Avenue Supermarts (DMart):

    This department stores chain has declined by 7.6% over the past week, and touched a new 52-week low of Rs 3,399 on Friday. This comes after Goldman Sachs cut the target price on the stock to Rs 3,425 per share, highlighting that Avenue Supermarts’ (DMart) competitive moat is facing increasing pressure amid a rise in quick commerce players. The average target from analysts on the company according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster is Rs 4,442, so Goldman Sachs’ outlook on the business is now especially negative.

    The DMart operator is known for offering the lowest prices on branded fast-moving consumer goods. However, the company has had to increase its discounting efforts to sustain its pricing advantage. In December, DMart increased its discounts to 25% over the maximum retail price to counter competitive pressures from Q-commerce players like Zepto, Zomato’s Blinkit, and Swiggy Instamart. 

    Q-commerce players’ advantages are discounted pricing and 10-minute delivery. This has pressured DMart's growth in metro cities, as consumers in the region now prefer smaller, frequent purchases. Analysts believe the overlap between convenience-seeking consumers and DMart's value-focused shoppers is higher than expected, likely impacting its growth trajectory further.

    During Q2FY25, Avenue Supermarts’ revenue grew by 14.4% YoY to Rs 14,444.5 crore. Net profit increased by 5.8% YoY to Rs 659.6 crore. However, revenue growth was slower compared to the previous quarters. The management highlighted that like-for-like (LFL) sales declined to 5.5% during the quarter, driven by slower growth in metro areas. Q-commerce's rising popularity has impacted these markets, which account for 47% of DMart’s revenue. Commenting on this, Neville Noronha, the CEO and MD, said, “We are clearly seeing the impact of online grocery formats on our stores and operations in metro cities”.

    Goldman Sachs notes that DMart’s growth prospects are strongest in smaller cities beyond the top 10, where competition is less intense. However, its slower expansion approach may hinder its ability to be the first to market. The brokerage also lowered its earnings estimates for DMart for FY25 by 4.2% to reflect slower revenue growth. 

    2. Lupin:

    This pharmaceutical company rose 3% on December 19 after receiving FDA approval for its drug application for Emtricitabine and Tenofovir Alafenamide tablets. These drugs are used together to treat human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and as a pre-exposure to reduce the risk of HIV-1 infection. The market size for these drugs was valued at $3.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to $6.2 billion by 2033.

    Lupin rose 5.5% in the past month following two key developments. The company acquired trademarks for three anti-diabetes brands—Gibtulio, Gibtulio Met, and Ajaduo to strengthen its diabetes portfolio in India. Additionally, Lupin received tentative approval from the US FDA for its Sitagliptin and Metformin Hydrochloride tablets. These tablets help manage blood sugar levels in adults with type 2 diabetes. It had an estimated annual sales of $1.1 billion in the US as of September 2024.

    In Q2FY25, in-licence products made up 12% of Lupin’s sales, down from 15% in Q2FY24. Analysts expect that as the share of in-licensing products decreases, Lupin’s margins and profitability will improve, particularly in India. The company’s EBITDA margin stood at 19% in FY24 and increased to 23% in Q2FY25, driven by product launches like Mirabegron. CEO Vinita Gupta said, “We have achieved higher margins despite a nearly 190bps QoQ increase in our R&D spend. We expect EBITDA margins to range between 22-23% for H2FY25 and aim for a margin of 23-25% in the medium term.”

    Gupta highlighted that Lupin has a pipeline of over 20 respiratory and 40 injectable products in development in the US. This is expected to push complex generics above 50% of total sales in the next few years. This signals a growing moat for Lupin, from more sales in advanced, harder-to-make medicines. Gupta is confident of achieving its FY25 double-digit revenue growth target in the US markets.

    BOB Capital Markets maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharma stock with a target price of Rs 2,438, suggesting a potential upside of 13.4%. The brokerage expects the proportion of in-licence sales to decrease to 10% by FY26, down from 12% in Q2FY25, with margins in the India business improving. It anticipates Lupin’s sales to grow at a 9% CAGR and net profit at 19% over FY25-27, driven by a strong product pipeline for the US market.

    3. KFIN Technologies:

    Thisfinancial services provider surged 15.8% over the past week following theannouncement that it has joined BlackRock’s Aladdin Provider network in a bid to make its offerings for asset managers more standardised and efficient. This collaboration will enable KFintech to offer enhanced fund administration and accounting services to clients.

    If we look at the revenue mix as of Q2 FY25, around 70% of the revenue comes from the domestic mutual fund business, which is up 39.4% YoY. As of September 30, KFintech had a market share of 32.4% in India’s asset management services industry, as it serves 6 of the top 10 asset management companies.

    Given the heavy reliance on Indian markets, CFO, Vivek Mathur,said, “We continue to de-risk the domestic business by expansion in the international market.” The company witnessed the highest revenue growth of 44% YoY from the services provided in the international market and other investor solutions. The firm saw an average AUM growth of 27.5% YoY in this segment. They also aim to capture 100% of the market opportunity in Thailand as there is no competition. The company has also won service contracts from funds in Malaysia and a trust in the Philippines.

    Forecaster estimates revenue and net profit growth to be over 35% for Q3. The company stands to benefit from the ‘financialization’ trend of Indians moving money from savings into investments. MD & CEO, Sreekanth Nadella, expects this trend to continue to play out into the coming quarters and years.

    Jefferies maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on KFintech as they believe that the firm offers a long-term opportunity. They are optimistic about the opportunities in international business as the company receives licenses to operate in the Southeast Asian markets.

    4. HG Infra Engineering:

    Thisconstruction & engineering company rose 3.4% on Monday after its wholly-owned subsidiary, HG Chennai-Tirupati (II) Highway Private Ltd,secured an order worth Rs 862.1 crore from the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI). The project is for building 4-lane and 6-lane highways in Andhra Pradesh.

    Last week, the companyreceived a letter of acceptance (LoA) for a Rs 763.1 crore project from the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH). This project focuses on upgrading National Highway 227B, in Uttar Pradesh, to a two-lane road.

    Despite the huge order book of Rs 16,985 crore inQ2FY25, HG Infra Engineering’s net profit declined 16% YoY to Rs 80.7 crore, due to high cost of materials. However, net profit beat Trendlyne’sForecaster estimates by 25.1%. Its revenue for the quarter also fell 5.5% YoY to Rs 902.4 crore. Regarding the fall in revenue, Harendra Singh, Chairman and Managing Director of the company said, “Progress of highway (construction) was slowed down due to erratic and good rainfall during the monsoon.” However, the management expects revenue to grow 17-18% in the upcoming quarters.

    Commenting on the order book, Harendra Singhsaid, “We are targeting an order inflow of between Rs 11,000-12,000 crore for FY25.” In H1FY25, the companyreported an order inflow of Rs 6,280 crore, reflecting over 2X YoY growth, leading the order book to grow by 56% YoY. The company appears in ascreener of stocks with high analyst ratings and a potential upside of at least 20%.

    Geojit BNP Paribas has a ‘Buy’ rating on HG Infra Engineering with a target price of Rs 1,791. The brokerage expects a CAGR of 16.8% in revenue, 15.7% in EBITDA, and 18.3% in net profit over FY25-27. They also expect the order book to grow at a CAGR of 31% over the same period.

    5. Coromandel International:

    This fertilizer company has risen by 4% in the past week. On December 17th, the company entered into a partnership with Mahindra Group’s ‘Krish-e Partner’ to provide drone spraying services for Indian farmers. Along with this, on December 5th, the company signed a strategic research agreement with the US-based International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) to address agricultural challenges with next-generation fertilizers, that improve nutrient efficiency and reduce environmental impact.

    CRIN posted a nominal 6.6% YoY increase in revenue in Q2FY25, however it reported a 12.3% YoY decline in net profit to Rs 664.1 crore due to rise in raw material prices and lower government subsidies. The company however beat the Trendlyne Forecaster estimates for revenue by 12.7% and the net profit estimate by 2.7% due to a rise in net manufacturing volumes by 6% YoY to 1.1 MMT. It appears in a screener of stocks having strong momentum.

    The company’s management highlights the improving monsoons in India, contributing towards demand appreciation of fertilizers. On this aspect, the company’s MD & CEO, S. Sankarasubramanian, said, “The monsoon has been good at 108% of the long-term period average and we have witnessed a strong Kharif season. Actually, our south markets received 114% of the normal rains. Northeast monsoon which is likely to bring rains to Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra has started on a strong note, and we do expect a very strong Rabi season.”

    The company has maintained its EBITDA per ton guidance of Rs 4,500-5,000 per ton for manufactured fertilizer (NPK and DAP) for FY25. On the guidance front, S. Sankarasubramanian adds, “Our enhanced value addition and increased intermediate capacities help us maintain margins despite significant global commodity price volatility. By boosting our captive manufacturing of phosphoric and sulfuric acid, we can absorb price shocks and subsidies. If market conditions improve, margins are expected to rise.”

    Motilal Oswal has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on CRIN with a target price of Rs 2,000. The brokerage expects the company’s fertilizer business to show strong growth with improved margins YoY in H2FY25. Additionally, the crop protection business is expected to recover and maintain growth momentum. It also adds that the Agrochemical prices have bottomed out globally and are expected to rise in the next calendar year, as Chinese suppliers won't be able to sustain the low prices for long.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    20 Dec 2024
    Five trends that will make 2025 very different from 2024 | Screener: Sector outperformers of 2024

    Five trends that will make 2025 very different from 2024 | Screener: Sector outperformers of 2024

    We are cursed with short attention spans, so we tend to prioritize the most recent events. Social media and smartphones have made this attention problem even worse - as I am constantly reminded, when I return from the grocery store with everything except the item I went there for. 

    Investors have been pretty downbeat recently about the stock market's performance, so it took a glance at the Nifty50's share price history to give me some perspective on what the year was actually like. The index had a pretty strong first half in 2024, compared to the previous years. The trendline changed sharply only in October, when the decline shook up portfolios and the investor mood. 

    What about 2025? 2024 has sometimes felt like a holding pattern, with elections in the India and the US, wars without end, and inflation keeping consumers quiet. Early signals suggest that 2025 will be different. 

    In this week's Analyticks:

    • Five trends that will make 2025 unlike 2024
    • Screener: Stocks that outperformed their sectors over the past year

    1) What happens in the US will not stay in the US - especially under Trump

    President-elect Donald Trump is a noisemaker who writes messages in ALL CAPS, throws threats at countries ("100% tariffs!") and nominates messy, troubling characters to key administrative roles, like conspiracy-theorist Kash Patel to the FBI and vaccine-opponent Robert F Kennedy to be the Health Secretary. Trump has also signalled a broad change in US international policy, with his  focus on"America First".

    One of the things Trump promised this week was "reciprocal tariffs" on US trading partners: “If they tax us, we tax them the same amount." This has big implications for India, since US is India's second-biggest trading partner, and many American goods face high import duties in India.  India's average tariffs have risen from 5% in 2014 to 17% now, which is higher than other Asian countries that trade with the US.

    Overall, Biden has been better than Trump for India's trade with the US. So this relationship may get shaky if Trump follows through on his trade threats.

    2. Oil will be cheaper in 2025 - maybe by a lot

    A big, once-in-decades change is happening in the oil market: the OPEC cartel's power is dwindling, with its market share falling fast. “There is more fear about 2025's oil prices than there has been since years - any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” one oil analyst noted. OPEC countries are set to raise their pumping targets gradually in 2025, bringing more oil to the market. But 90% of the increase in oil supplies in 2025 are set to come from non-OPEC countries like US, Brazil and Canada, limiting OPEC's pricing power. 

    The oil surplus could hit 1.6 million barrels per day by the second half of 2025, bringing prices lower, especially if demand from China, the main oil consumer, stays weak.

    Brent futures point to a continued downward trend in oil prices, and some analysts are especially pessimistic - Citi analysts expect Brent price to average $60 per barrel next year, while others predict $40 per barrel. 

    3. Not so green: Coal will come out of the shadows in 2025

    There is much talk these days about the green economy: increasing renewables is non-negotiable to bring down emissions. But coal, the dirtiest fuel, is not going anywhere and may even hit record highs in 2025, thanks in part due to India.

    Despite countries like the UK banning coal entirely, coal demand was at a record in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency, and is still growing. 

    India is expected to consume more coal than the European Union and the US combined in 2025.  But the main driver of coal consumption is China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together. It will take until 2027 for India's power generation from renewables to have real impact.

    4. The consumer story will be back in the headlines in 2025

    2024 was an especially difficult year for the Indian consumer, with high inflation and high interest rates depressing spending, and the overall consumer mood. From FMCG to paints to consumer durables, CEOs noticed "a muted response" across Indian consumer markets. Another worrying signal was slow growth in the average salary bill at India's listed companies in the September quarter. 

    2025 however is expected to see a recovery, with inflation trending downward, as food prices come down from recent highs. If inflation stays within RBI's target range, interest cuts should come as early as February 2025.

    S&P Global predicts healthy growth in Indian consumption spending, with spending on goods, already at $1.29 trillion, set to ramp up steadily.

    5. 2025 will be a volatile year

    The Nifty Vix is going to see some upheaval. Analysts across the board are predicting volatilty thanks to rising geopolitical risks: a trade war is a possibility between the US and China, and a change in government is likely in Canada, Germany and Australia. There has also been a swing to the political right globally, and that is coming with deregulation across industries. Cooling inflation could also drive rate cuts across the board. 

    Overall, the momentum looks for now, to be in India's favour. China is in the crosshairs, giving India an opportunity in global markets. Oil prices are trending lower, more good news for us, an oil importer.

    But there are as always, unpredictables  - another regional crisis could flare up (say China-Taiwan), US-India relations could worsen, a bad monsoon could trigger more inflation. 

    Changes are afoot. As that double-edged promise goes: it is going to be an interesting year.


    Screener: Relative Outperformance versus sector over one year

    General Industrials & Consumer Durables stocks rise the most in the past year

    As we near the end of 2024, we take a look at the top-performing stocks over the past year relative to their sector. This screener shows Nifty 500 stocks whose share price over one year rose faster than its sector. 

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the banking & finance, automobiles & auto components, food, beverages & tobacco, realty, and pharmaceuticals & biotechnology sectors. The most notable stocks in the screener are Jyoti CNC Automation, GE Vernova T&D India, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Dixon Technologies (India), Oracle Financial Services Software, Godfrey Phillips India, Kaynes Technology India, and Anant Raj. 

    Jyoti CNC Automation shows up in the screener after rising by 333.8% over the past year, outperforming the general industrials sector by 157.5 percentage points. This industrial machinery stock was listed on the exchange on January 16, 2024, and is the best-performing IPO during the year. Its stock price surged on the back of its revenue and net profit growing YoY in Q1 and Q2 of FY25. In Q2FY25, the company’s revenue grew by 45.6% YoY to Rs 441.7 crore. Its net profit increased by 348.2% YoY to Rs 75.9 crore, driven by a reduction in inventory and employee benefits expenses.

    Motilal Oswal Financial Services also appears in the screener after rising 225.5% over the past year, outperforming the banking & finance sector by 201 percentage points in the same period. This capital markets stock’s price surged on the back of strong results. Its revenue and net profit have grown YoY for the past six consecutive quarters. The company also issued three bonus shares for every share owned by the shareholders on June 10, helping the stock price surge 10.6% during the month. 

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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