2024 is ending with investor hopes for a Santa rally. But so far, December has brought little festive cheer to global markets. The month has seen volatility in India and steep declines in US indices, driven by the Federal Reserve's cautious outlook on rate cuts for 2025.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's words travel around the world, and after he said on December 18 that rate cuts would be slower - "it's like...driving on a foggy night, you need to move slowly" - the Nifty 50 dropped 2.5% in the next two trading sessions. 

If the Fed keeps US interest rates higher, then foreign investors will prefer investing in safer, high-yield US bonds than in riskier emerging markets like India. 

But despite December's muted performance, it was a strong year for global equity markets. But which index was the winner of 2024? And which sectors and stocks powered the surge?

Let’s uncover the stars of the year.

In this week’s Analyticks,

• 2024 index winners: The indices that top the list, amid tough competition
• Screener: Stocks with high Trendlyne Momentum and Durability scores, with high revenue forecasts for the upcoming quarter

2024 round-up: A strong year for major global indices

Equity markets across major economies have had a good year, riding high on cooling inflation and interest rate cuts from central banks worldwide.

It is Taiwan's Weighted Index that tops the charts, with the highest one-year gain. As AI investments surged, its semiconductor and electronics sectors boomed. 

Major global indices post gains in the past year

The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also delivered. India's Nifty 500, rose over 18% in the past year. This is despite falling sharply in the past quarter due to FII selling and muted Q2 results. 

China’s Shanghai Composite recovered from its lows after a massive government stimulus, helping the index rise 23% in the past quarter. 

When looking at five-year performance, the Nasdaq 100 emerges as the leader, followed by India’s Nifty 500. On the flip side, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, the FTSE 100, and the Shanghai Composite have lagged. 

The top stock gainers in the respective indices indicate tech as the top performer for the US, while finance, energy and industrials won elsewhere.

Top-performing stocks across global indices in 2024

The US has dominated global tech in 2024, thanks to AI investments by the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla).

But 2025 may be more muted. These stocks rose on the promise of the AI investments they made in 2024. Now comes the hard part: these investments have to show financial gains.

Central bankers gave stock markets a boost (except for the RBI)

Central Banks shifted their interest rate policies in 2024. When inflation rose to record levels in 2022, major central banks had raised interest rates. Now with the exception of RBI, most central banks are cutting rates.

RBI yet to start with rate cuts

Lower interest rates allow companies and people to borrow money cheaply, driving consumption and boosting the economy. The Euro zone was among the first to cut interest rates in June. The US followed in September. The US Fed has cut rates by a whole percentage point in 2024. 

The RBI has held off cutting interest rates in India despite the global trend, due to inflation breaching the upper tolerance limit of 6% in October.  Weaker-than-expected GDP growth in Q2 and persistent foreign investor outflows caused Indian markets to enter correction territory in November. 

Which sectors and stocks contributed most to the stock market jump in India and the US? 

General industrials and consumer durables stocks shine in 2024

Several sectors stood out in the Indian market in 2024, with general industrials, consumer durables, realty and pharma stealing the spotlight.

Three of the top four contributors in the general industrials sector are from the defence industry: Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Bharat Electronics, and Hindustan Aeronautics, as the Indian government, focused on border tensions, boosted spends on domestic defence equipment and product manufacturing. 

In consumer durables, solar energy player Premier Energies and electronics manufacturer Dixon Tech lead the pack, with their share prices jumping sharply in the past year. Waaree Energies and Premier Energies both debuted on the market this past quarter—and haven’t stopped climbing since. 

General Industrials emerges as the start sector in the past year

The pharma sector has continued its recovery, with falling raw material costs and a resurgence in API manufacturing demand. Lupin, Torrent Pharma, Divi’s Labs, and Sun Pharma are leading the charge. 

In the realty sector, Anant Raj leads the pack with strong residential market demand. Analysts are also bullish on the company's presence in the data centre space. Other top contributors include Prestige Estates, Oberoi Realty, and Macrotech Developers. 

Hardware tech, software & services are star segments in the US

2024 was a great year for America's big guns. The Magnificent Seven dominated the sectors that saw the most growth this year: hardware technology and equipment, automobiles &auto components, and software and services.

Among them, Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang in his signature leather jacket, stole the show. The media anointed Huang as 'the Steve Jobs of AI' and people clamoured for his autograph, as the demand for AI-related technologies catapulted Nvidia to the top. Semiconductor powerhouses Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (ADR) also soared.
 

Nvidia drives the hardware tech & equipment sector higher

In the retail sector, Walmart was the winner. Its strong Q3 results, which outpaced Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for both revenue and net profit, pushed its stock to new highs.

Screener: Stocks with high Trendlyne Momentum and Durability scores with  high revenue forecasts for the upcoming quarter

IT stocks have high momentum and revenue growth forecast

As we inch closer to the end of Q3FY25, we take a look at technically strong stocks with high Forecaster estimates for YoY revenue growth in Q3FY25. This screener shows stocks with high Trendlyne omentum and durability scores where Forecaster estimates high quarterly revenue YoY growth.

The screener is dominated by stocks from the heavy electrical equipment, IT consulting & software, realty, exchange, and asset management companies industries. Major stocks featuring in the screener are BSE, KFIN Technologies, Kaynes Technology, Dixon Technologies (India), Coforge, Newgen Software Technologies, Persistent Systems, and KEC International.

BSE shows up in the screener with the highest Trendlyne momentum score of 76.2, helped by the exchange stock surging by 38.6% over the past quarter. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects the company’s revenue to grow 67.6% YoY in Q3FY25. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services expect momentum from BSE's relaunch of derivative products, new product launches, and improvement in member participation.

Coforge also appears in the screener with a high Trendlyne momentum score of 71.4 due to the IT consulting & software stock’s price rising by 36.4% over the past three months. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects the company’s revenue to grow by 37.4% YoY in Q3FY25. Analysts at Sharekhan say its revenue should improve via its growing order book, strong large deal pipeline, and synergies from the Cigniti acquisition. 

You can find some popular screeners here.