BHFC's 4QFY21 result beat estimates on all fronts as Revenue/EBITDA/Adj. PAT came higher by 10%/23%/43% over PLe. This was led by i) 39% YoY growth in tonnage (due to strong traction in auto demand for both domestic/exports), ii) 7% YoY growth in realizations (better mix and RM inflation price through) and iii) cost control. Outlook for auto segment...

BFL said: (i) cost pressure exists on raw material and freight costs (up 3-4x in the recent past), (ii) BFL has recently won an order from Government of India in the defence domain (non-automotive) wherein BFL will start supplying components in a month's timeframe (quantum not disclosed); (iii) BFL will be acquiring land to the tune of ~70 hectares at Khed (Maharashtra, near Pune) at an outlay of ~| 240 crore (over the next two to three years) wherein they intend to construct two new plants in the domain of e-mobility and defence. (iv) BFL will be targeting an RoCE of ~20%; (v) US-class 8 truck...

Bharat Forge Ltd (BFL) is a leading player in the forgings industry. The company is serving several sectors including automobile, power, oil and gas, rail & marine, aerospace & defence, construction, mining, etc. Q4FY21 has witnessed a standalone revenue growth of 26.2%QoQ on the back of 43% growth in exports (US truck sales and Oil & Gas) and 9.6% growth in domestic revenues. Despite cost inflationary pressure, margin expanded by 680bps from Q3FY21, owing to superior product mix and cost control initiatives....

We maintain BUY with a revised target price of INR 860 at 34.5x FY23E EPS (vs 32x earlier) the multiple has been raised to factor in the reorganised group structure, emerging opportunities in defence and PV segments, and stronger-than-expected demand. The stock is our preferred pick in the CV segment. Key risks: delayed defence orders; any sudden lockdowns due to COVID Bharat Forges (BFL) 4QFY21 results were a significant beat with APAT coming in at INR 2.06bn (vs 0.98bn QoQ). The management is upbeat on the outlook for Class-8 trucks and expects its volume to reach 300k (+50%) in FY22E. In the defence segment, it is bringing the entire business under the listed entity, which should increase investor confidence. BFL is also setting up a dedicated defence manufacturing facility near Pune to streamline and expand operations. We are raising our estimates by 31/14% over FY22/23E to factor in the positive 4QFY21 results and improving outlook.

Greenfield capex with focus on the Defense and e-Mobility space Strong performance by BHFC in 4QFY21 was driven by a strong recovery in the Auto export business and resultant benefits of operating leverage. While all core businesses are expected to witness a sharp cyclical recovery, BHFC's huge plans in Defense and e-Mobility is starting to fructify with the setting up of a greenfield plant focusing on these areas. We raise our consolidated EPS by 17%/18% for FY22E/FY23E, driven by...

However, the pace of transition is expected to be gradual with ICE engines remaining dominant in the near to medium term, particularly in India. We hosted the HSIE Autos and Mobility Conference, which was attended by five auto OEMs, five parts suppliers, and three startups, amongst others. The key themes that emerged from the conference were electrification and diversification, as the industry is preparing to diversify beyond combustion engines. OEMs are increasingly investing in EV and hybrid technology while auto parts companies are seeking to de-risk their customer mix by foraying into the non-auto space including defence, aerospace, industrial and renewable segments.

Bharat Forge (BFL) reported a steady Q3FY21 performance. Standalone revenues came in at | 1,036 crore (down 3.8% YoY) despite 8.4% YoY tonnage growth to 50,943 MT. Total India revenues were at | 516 crore (up 26.5% YoY; CV up 49.4%, PV up 27.5%, industrial up 16%). Export revenues, on the other hand, were down 19.5% YoY to | 512 crore (CV up 7.1%, PV down 8.4%, industrials down 60.1%). Standalone EBITDA for the quarter was at | 215 crore, with consequent margins at 20.7%. Margin performance was positively impacted by operating leverage, with gross...

BHFC's 3QFY21 performance was weak as realizations declined to 3- year low by ~11% YoY to Rs2.03L/ton (PLe Rs2.33L/ton). This was led by weak sales in oil & gas segment (sales at USD3m v/s normalized rate of USD25-30m) and higher PV share. Tonnage growth of 8% was led by strong traction in auto demand in both India and exports. While pickup is visible in class 8 trucks for...

With the bulk of target customer segments viz. domestic CV, global CV space (improved new order readings of Class 8 trucks with November 2020 print coming in at ~53,000 units (~3x YoY, up ~30% MoM)), bottoming out, we expect a rapid recovery at Bharat Forge, a large part of which is captured by its prevailing valuation multiples (trading at ~32x P/E on FY23E numbers). We will keenly monitor any surprise on the operating margin front consequent to a lot of cost cutting initiatives undertaken by the company, before any meaningful upgrade. We also await outcome on scrappage...

Domestic auto industry volumes have been on a steady mend in the months post lifting of lockdown restrictions. Manufacturing and distribution activities have been getting ramped up gradually since June 2020, in step with the rest of the economy. However, the impact of the pandemic on the supply chain continues to inhibit a complete return to production normalcy. Nevertheless, most automotive industry segments have reported successive improvement in offtake throughout June-November 2020 (Exhibit 1) on the back of (i) initial bounce provided by pent-up aspect,...

Consol capex guidance at Rs4.5bn for FY21. Expect no major capex in 2H. to 40.8k (PLe 44.6k). The sharp decline in volumes was led by ~33%/44% YoY there has been some initial pickup in class 8 trucks (~19% of S/A revenues) along with ramp-up in PVs, the outlook for industrial remain weak with no...

Bharat Forge Ltd (BFL) is a leading player in the forgings industry. The company is serving several sectors including automobile, power, oil and gas, rail & marine, aerospace & defence, construction, mining, etc. Total revenues in Q2FY21 declined by 30%YoY. The sharp decline is on account on continued weakness in the export Industrial business and downturn in the Commercial Vehicle sector. Margin expanded to pre-covid level at 12.1% owing to continuous restructuring and cost control measure. However a significant...

International oil & gas segment remains an area of concern amid soft crude...

Bharat Forge Ltd (BFL) is a leading player in the forgings industry. The company is serving several sectors including automobile, power, oil and gas, rail & marine, aerospace & defence, construction, mining, etc. BFL revenue came with a surprise as the company able to reduce its Break even point (BEP) on the backdrop of 20% utilization and stringent cost controlling measures, during the lockdown period. The Indian government's recent announcement to restrict the import of defence equipment enhances the order procurement visibility in...

Sharp cost focus expected to pay dividends Despite soft revenue performance during the quarter (~20% capacity utilisation), BFL nearly managed EBITDA breakeven in standalone and consolidated operations. Its focus on reducing breakeven levels by downsizing costs, enhancing efficiencies while simultaneously controlling capex spends is seen leading to improvement in margin trajectory. BFL expects to continue to post sequential improvement in coming quarters and return to previous margin levels on these cost initiatives. We build 17.4%...

S/A revenue declined ~68% YoY to ~INR4.3b; however, EBITDA/PAT loss of ~INR74m/INR563m was reported. While tonnage declined 71% YoY, realizations grew 8% YoY (9% QoQ) to The Auto segments revenues declined 78% YoY, impacted by decline across segments, with 85%/86% and ~79%/53% declines in CV/PV (domestic and exports, respectively). The Non-Auto segments revenue declined ~51%, impacted by similar declines in both domestic and export revenues. EBITDA loss stood lower due to better fixed cost management. Higher other income and lower depreciation/interest restricted net loss. Revenue is expected to decline in 2Q on a YoY basis, but domestic revenue would be flat, with growth in Industrial, PV, Mining, and Tractor to cover for expected 67% decline in CV. Oil & Gas) would be flat in 2Q on a YoY basis. The Oil & Gas business would be lower; however, Brent sustaining above USD42/barrel could drive recovery in demand.

Led by cost control, able to achieve EBITDA breakeven at ~20% utilization. 17.8k (PLe 14k) partly offset by realization growth of ~8% at Rs239k/ton (PLe came in at Rs17mn (PLe Rs182mn) while adj. loss restricted at Rs563mn (PLe Rs757mn). While the ongoing cycle is negative for core segments such of CVs (~39% of consol revenues) and Oil & gas, ramp-up is visible in PV and...

Bharat Forge Ltd (BFL) is a leading player in the forgings industry. The company is serving several sectors including automobile, power, oil and gas, rail & marine, aerospace, construction, mining, etc. Q4FY20 revenue de-grew by 35%YoY due to sharp decline witnessed in both the Auto and Industrial business across geographies.. Weak product mix lockdown and negative operating leverage dragged the EBITDA margin down to 8.5%(-75%YoY). Though the subdued commentary across OEM especially both the...

Near term pain, Margin and growth levers intact Bharat Forge's (BFL) 4QFY20 consolidated EBITDA was Rs 1.48bn (-75% YoY, vs est 1.88bn), below our expectations. Weak product mix, lockdown in the 2nd half of March and negative operating leverage...

BFL's segmental revenue mix at standalone level for FY20 was at ~39% CV, ~37% industrial, ~16% PV, ~8% others. The CV space domestically (~11% of sales) as well as in overseas geographies (~29% of sales) remains a laggard. In India, present run rate of retail sales for M&HCVs; trails wider industry by a large margin when compared to pre-Covid levels on account of continued demand side (muted economic activity) and supply side (system overcapacity, revised axle load norms) issues. We expect the domestic CV recovery to be quite gradual in nature. In the US Class 8 truck...