Bharat Forge Ltd. share price target

*over or under performance to benchmark index Bharat Forge Ltd. (BFL) is a leading player in the forging industry. The company serves in several sectors, including automobile, power, oil and gas, rail & marine,...

Bharat Forge’s (BHFC) consolidated revenue and EBITDA missed our estimate. Nevertheless, management commentary on the outlook remained strong.

Bharat Forge’s (BHFC) 4QFY26 standalone adjusted earnings at INR3.7b came in slightly below our estimate of INR3.9b due to lower-thanexpected revenue and an adverse mix.

We recommend a BUY with a target price of Rs 2,095/share, implying ~10% upside.

FY25 standalone export mix - ~70% America, ~24% Europe, ~6% other Q3FY26 Result: Standalone revenues for the quarter came in at 2,084 crore flat YoY, amidst an 6% de-growth in tonnage at 57,859 tonnes. Standalone EBITDA in Q3FY26 stood at 566 crore, with consequent margins placed at 27.2%, down 112...

*over or under performance to benchmark index Following a positive geopolitical shift and ongoing capacity expansion, coupled with inorganic opportunities in India, the company is well placed to deliver stronger profitability in H2. Margin resilience, driven by defence, aerospace, and overseas subsidiaries, provides a solid foundation, while any favourable tariff developments could further accelerate growth. We therefore value the stock at 42x FY28E EPS and...

Bharat Forge’s (BHFC) standalone adjusted earnings at INR3.2b came 14.7% below our estimate due to lower-than-expected margins. Margins were impacted by weak exports, adverse mix and increase in tariff costs in Q3.

Consolidated revenue increased 9% YoY to Rs.4032 cr on strong PV, industrial and defence performance with stable overseas operations, whereas standalone revenue fell 12% YoY in Q2FY26 due to weak CV exports amid a North American...

Q2FY26 Result: Standalone revenues for the quarter came in at 1,947 crore down 13% YoY, amidst an 12% de-growth in tonnage at 56,457 tonnes. Standalone EBITDA in Q2FY26 stood at 551 crore, with consequent margins placed at 28.3%,...

BHFC’s standalone earnings at INR3.15b came in line with our estimate. Revenue came in below our estimate, whereas margins surprised positively.

Despite a weak quarter primarily due to global uncertainties, BFL's diversified streams of revenue across geographies and new businesses & verticals have led to a resilient performance. Standalone revenue for Q1FY26, de-grew by 10% YoY due to weak export revenue....

In 4QFY25, BHFC (standalone) posted a 9% YoY decline in PAT to INR3.6b (in line). The key highlight of 4Q was that the US subsidiary achieved EBITDA break-even for the first time in many quarters.

Bharat Forge Q3FY25 consolidated revenue declined for 2nd consecutive quarter as revenue was down by 10.1% YoY, 21%/8% lower than PLe/consensus estimates. The de-growth in revenue was due to persistent challenges in European business as well as a slowdown in defence business. Consequently, this led its gross profit to decline by 3.9% YoY, however, margin improved by 376bps YoY to 57.7%. EBITDA declined by 10.5% YoY while margin remained flat at 18%. Subdued overall performance led its PAT to decline by 12.3% YoY. BHFC delivered weak Q3FY25 performance with the outlook for European...

We met BHFC’s management team recently to understand the company’s growth outlook in the coming years. the robust order backlog of INR54b in defense exports to be executable over the next three years.