Oberoi Realty Ltd. share price forecast

ORL is also looking at rental asset development opportunities in NCR/southern markets. It already has FSI in Mulund, Borivali, and Thane for office asset development. We maintain BUY, with a TP of INR 1,118/sh. FY22 was a defining year for Oberoi Realty (ORL), as it (1) registered the highest-ever annual presales of INR 40bn and (2) reported the highest-ever annual profit of INR 10bn. Multiple tailwinds that could lead to a further rerating include: (1) a strong sales pipeline for the next 12 months, with new towers expected in Borivali and Goregaon; (2) Thane launch, targeted for Q2FY23. Further, the unsold stock monetisation in Mulund and Worli could add to overall sales. In its rental portfolio, it is rethinking making a comeback in the office and retail asset space and is expected to take decision on Glaxo Worli retail/office soon.

Oil India: Our BUY recommendation on Oil India with a target price of INR 300 is premised on (1) increase in crude price realisation and (2) improvement in domestic gas price realisation. Oil price realisation for FY22 improved to USD 76.7/bbl, vs USD 43/bbl in FY21, given the expected global economic rebound, post COVID. Q4FY22 revenue was 2% below our estimate, while EBITDA was 1% higher than the estimate, owing to lower-than-expected employee expenses and lower other expenses. RPAT came in 29% above the estimate, given lower depreciation, higher other income, and lower tax rate of 20%. Crompton Consumer: Crompton's Q4FY22 revenue was a miss but the EBITDA margin was in line. Similar to peers, the company too was impacted by Omicron in Jan and slow channel filling. Feb/March saw double-digit growth along with healthy secondary growth. Revenue growth, at 2% YoY (HSIE 8%, 9% three-year CAGR), was also impacted by pumps (industry-level issue). ECD clocked in 3% growth (ex-pump 7%, FY22 15%), with a healthy three-year CAGR of 12.5%. Fan growth was at 9% YoY (32% three-year CAGR, 19% in FY22), resulting in a 3% share gain to exit share of 29%. Lighting revenue was down by 4%, with continuous impact of B-B and B-G conventional lighting. Crompton remained one of the best among peers in cost control, and hence, despite several headwinds, EBITDA margin came in flat YoY/QoQ at 15% (a slight beat). We remained confident of healthy growth for fans, appliances and B-C lighting. However, a part of the portfolio (pump, B-B/B-G lighting)...

EBITDA margin remained stressed at 41.6% (-570bps YoY, -980bps QoQ) on lower realisations and increase in operating costs. Despite this, PAT rose 63.1% YoY to Rs. 468cr (+75.4% QoQ), primarily aided by...

Elysian new tower launch drives strong presales About the stock: Oberoi Realty (ORL) is a Mumbai-focused premium real estate Q3FY22 Results: ORL reported a strong operating performance. On the financial front, reported revenues were muted YoY at | 832 crore with residential segment revenue recognition, which was at | 709.1 crore, up ~0.8% YoY. PAT was at | 467.5 crore, (up 63% YoY), with beat due to recognition of Worli projects (under profit from associates)...

The company commenced the profit recognition of 360 West, its Worli project, which led to a 101% YoY increase in PAT. On the back of earlierthan-expected recognition, we increase our FY22E PAT by 60% and correspondingly reduce the same for FY23E by 34%. We increase our presales estimates by 3% for FY22. The company expects to launch its muchawaited Thane project in Feb'22. Moreover, the receipt of the Occupancy Certificate (OC) for 360 West, Worli, is expected to boost pre-sales growth...

The company reported sales volume of 0.9 lakh sq ft (up 6.5x YoY on wash out base of Q1FY21 but down 91% QoQ) largely due to second wave impact and high base of Q4FY21, which had a couple of launches including big...

The company reported highest ever sales volume of 1.06 msf (up 7.3x YoY on a depressed base of Q4FY20 and strong 103% QoQ growth). The sales value was up 8.2x YoY, 2x QoQ at | 1957 crore (gross value | 2050 crore). The sales volume was largely driven by new launches new Goregaon tower named Elysian, which clocked sales volume of 0.53 msf (~50% of overall sales volume of the quarter) and launch of sixth tower in Borivali project (Borivali contributed 0.26 msf (~25% of sales volume). ORL is currently at the designing stage to launch newer projects for Thane and...

Sales volume was at 5.1 lakh sq ft, strong growth of ~230% YoY. Sales value was up 220% YoY at | 970.8 crore (excluding subvention costs at | 1,016 crore). The key factors driving demand included a) mortgage rates at all-time low levels, b) buyers preferring better quality homes, especially after lockdown, c) local government interventions such as stamp duty cut and d) higher customer's preference towards readily available inventories/near completion projects. During Q4, ORL is likely to launch projects of ~4-5 mn sq ft (msf) at Borivali Phase II, Goregaon - Exquisite III and Thane. We bake...

15 July 2020 Oberoi Realtys (OBER) portfolio is heavily concentrated in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) one of the worst affected regions in India due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, we have lowered our estimates for residential, retail and hospitality segments for FY21; however, we have broadly maintained estimates for the commercial office space. Despite the current challenges, OBERs balance sheet strength gives us comfort. Maintain Buy with a revised TP of INR444. Revenue was down 80.4% YoY to INR1,180m (v/s est. EBITDA declined 75.4% YoY to INR579m (v/s est. However, EBITDA margins expanded 1,010bp to 49.1% (v/s est.

Housing market to be impacted in near term Coverage sales volume to decline 1.9% YoY in Q4FY20E We anticipate Covid-19 led lockdown would impact some deal closures for real estate players leading to lower sales volumes in Q4FY20E. Bengalurubased players have shown some resilience in sales volumes. Hence, we anticipate relatively lower impact on operational performance of Brigade Enterprises. Overall, we expect sales volumes of our coverage universe to decline 1.9% YoY to 10.8 lakh sq ft (lsf) in Q4FY20E largely on account of 22.4% YoY decline in Oberoi Realty's sales volumes to 1.1 lsf due to the...

Real estate players (like all major sectors) have faced the brunt of Covid-19, which is apparent from the stocks having seen a sharp correction in the past month. Segment wise, mall developers would be the first casualty with closure of malls and invocation of Force Majeure by at least some tenants. Similarly, home buyers' demand as well as construction stoppage will impact the residential segment. On the other hand, office segment cash flows remain protected. We expect the ground level situation to remain operationally challenging for all companies in our coverage universe amid...

Owing to recent correction we upgrade ORL from ADD to BUY. We have cut FY21/22E EPS by 12.1/21.8%. Reduce our NAV based TP to Rs 543/sh. Risks (1) Prolonged COVID impact (2) Sharp correction in property prices. We interacted with the management of Oberoi Realty Ltd (ORL) to assess the impact of COVID. Some obvious concerns viz (1) Residential demand (2) Site labour availability (3) Capex on ongoing real estate assets (4) Impact of Mall closure & (5) Status of new launches are addressed in this note.

Sales volumes grew 5.3% YoY (11.3% QoQ growth) to 1.55 lsf on account of lower sales at Eternia, Enigma and Three Sixty West projects. Sky City project recorded strong sales momentum with 65,326 sq ft (42 units) sold with a total sales value of | 100.4 crore in Q3FY20. Overall, no new launches and weak demand dynamics in the sector have impacted the company's sales performance, which de-grew 20.5% YoY to 5.3 lsf in 9MFY20. Furthermore, with no new launches planned in Q4FY20, we lower ORL's...