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Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
27 Dec 2023
Market closes higher, holding gains
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 21,654.75 (213.4, 1%), BSE Sensex closed at 72,038.43 (701.6, 1.0%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 19,296.95 (148.1, 0.8%), of the 2,026 stocks traded today, 1,001 were on the uptick, and 980 were down.

Indian indices maintained their gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing at 21,655 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 6% and closed at 15.6 points. Aarti Industries touched its 52-week high and closed 1.7% higher after securing a long-term supply contract with a global agrochem major, offering a revenue potential of nearly Rs 3,000 crore.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed flat, despite the benchmark index closing in the green. Nifty Bank and Nifty Metal closed higher than their Tuesday close. According to Trendlyne's sector dashboard, Healthcare Equipment & Supplies was the top-performing sector of the day as it rose 2.8%.

Major European indices traded in the green, taking cues from the Asian indices. US index futures traded flat, indicating a cautious start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures traded flat after rising 2.2% on a volatile day on Tuesday.

  • Godrej Consumer Products sees a long buildup in its December 28 future series as its open interest rises 33.6% with a put-call ratio of 0.8.

  • 3M India surges over 10% to an all-time high of Rs 34,799.9 and ranks high on Trendlyne's checklist with a score of 77.3%. The stock is in the strong buy zone. It appears in a screener of stocks with improving cash flow from operations.

  • Suzlon Energy rises as it receives an order for its 3 MW series generators, amounting to 100.8 MW, from Mahindra Susten. The company appears in a screener of stocks with growing net profit and margins.

  • Sectors like utilities, commercial services & supplies, forest materials and transportation rise more than 17% in the past month.

  • Swan Energy is rising as 48.6 lakh shares (1.9% equity), amounting to Rs 244 crore, change hands, according to reports.

  • Aurobindo Pharma rises as its subsidiary Eugia Pharma Specialities receives US FDA approval to manufacture and market Posaconazole Injection. The drug is used in the treatment of fungal diseases in adults and has a market size of $25.4 million (Rs 211.6 crore).

  • IDFCreceives 'No Objection' from the Reserve Bank of India for the proposed composite scheme of amalgamation of IDFC Financial Holding into and with IDFC, and IDFC into and with IDFC First Bank.

  • ICICI Prudential Life Insurance receives a GST demand notice for Rs 269.8 crore, including interest and penalty, for FY18 from the Deputy Commissioner of State Tax, Maharashtra.

  • Kamal Khushlani, CMD of Credo Brands Marketing, forecasts the company's revenue to hit approximately Rs 600 crore with a 30% margin in FY24. He also highlights the company’s target to double its revenue in the next 4-5 years. Credo Brands’ shares debuted on the bourses today at a 0.8% premium to the issue price of Rs 70.

  • PSU bank stocks like Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India, Punjab National Bank and Indian Bank are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index Nifty PSU Bank is also trading in the green.

  • NBCC rises as it bags an order worth Rs 150 crore from Steel Authority Of India (SAIL) ISP, Burnpur for civil and various types of infrastructure works in the plant and township.

  • Coromandel International falls following an ammonia gas leak at its fertilizer manufacturing facility in Chennai, resulting in multiple hospitalizations.

  • Emkay Global initiates coverage on Tejas Networks with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,050. The brokerage believes that the company will secure orders worth at least Rs 29,200 crore over FY24-28E. It also foresees Tejas Networks’ revenues reaching Rs 30,000 crore, led by the BSNL and Bharatnet projects.

  • Nifty 50 hits an all-time high of 21,603.4 today after rising for four consecutive days.

  • Cupid rises to an all-time high of Rs 1,016.2 as Universal-Halwasiya Group acquires an additional 26% stake (35 lakh shares) for Rs 325 per share, amounting to Rs 113 crore. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong annual EPS growth.

  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm wins an engineering, procurement and construction order worth Rs 5,000-10,000 crore to establish renewable energy generation, power utilities and water systems for an ultra-luxury tourism destination in Saudi Arabia.

  • India's current account deficit narrows to $8.3 billion, equivalent to 1% of GDP in Q2FY24, compared to 3.8% in Q2FY23. This is due to a lower merchandise trade deficit and a rise in services exports.

  • Happy Forgings’ shares debut on the bourses at a 17.6% premium to the issue price of Rs 850. The Rs 1,008.6 crore IPO has received bids for 82 times the total shares on offer.

  • Aarti Industries touches a 52-week high after securing a long-term supply contract with a global agrochem major, offering a revenue potential of nearly Rs 3,000 crore. It appears on a screener for stocks with strong momentum.

  • Vishnu Prakash R Punglia rises to an all-time high of Rs 242 as it bags orders worth Rs 899 crore from the Uttarakhand government. The orders involve the development, operation, and maintenance of water supply systems in various parts of the state.

  • Nomura has a ‘Buy’ rating on UltraTech Cement,Dalmia Bharat, The Ramco Cements and Shree Cements, and ‘Reduce’ on Ambuja Cements. The brokerage expects strong growth in sales volume in H2FY24. It also sees an improvement in margins driven by robust volumes, pricing discipline and lower fuel costs.

  • Cera Sanitaryware's Executive Director, Ayush Bagla, tenders his resignation to pursue new avenues. His resignation will be effective from March 31, 2024.

  • Kansai Nerolac Paints rises to a new 52-week high of Rs 357.3 as it plans to sell a land parcel worth Rs 726 crore in Mumbai's Lower Parel to Aethon Developers. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving book value per share.

  • Mathew Cyriac buys a 0.5% stake in Indiabulls Housing Finance for approx Rs 53.4 crore in a bulk deal on Tuesday.

  • SJVN rises as it bags an order worth Rs 550 crore from Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam. The order involves the construction and operation of a 100 MW solar power plant. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include 3M India Ltd. (36,389.95, 15.72%), Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd. (614.50, 6.16%) and Life Insurance Corporation of India (821.40, 5.13%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Vedanta Ltd. (252.40, -3.55%), Cummins India Ltd. (1,983.60, -2.15%) and REC Ltd. (410.50, -2.03%).

Volume Shockers

21 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included 3M India Ltd. (36,389.95, 15.72%), Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd. (114.00, 8.06%) and Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd. (614.50, 6.16%).

Top high volume loser on BSE was Coromandel International Ltd. (1,244.90, -1.45%).

Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd. (337.55, 3.78%) was trading at 24.1 times of weekly average. HEG Ltd. (1885.60, 4.86%) and Poly Medicure Ltd. (1,522.75, 5.56%) were trading with volumes 6.2 and 5.9 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

63 stocks made 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - 3M India Ltd. (36,389.95, 15.72%), Ajanta Pharma Ltd. (1,997.45, 0.54%) and Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Ltd. (811.80, 5.50%).

1 stock climbed above their 200 day SMA including Alkyl Amines Chemicals Ltd. (2,522.65, -1.88%). 7 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Vedanta Ltd. (252.40, -3.55%) and G R Infraprojects Ltd. (1,161.20, -2.01%).

 
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The Baseline
27 Dec 2023
5 stocks to buy from analysts this week
By Abhiraj Panchal

1. Devyani International:

KRChoksey maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this restaurant chain manager with a target price of Rs 230. This indicates an upside of 19.6%. Analyst Unnati Jadhav remains optimistic about the company with its entry into the Thailand market. Devyani has acquired a controlling interest in Thailand’s Restaurants Development Co for Rs 1,066.1 crore. The analyst notes that chicken is a favourite dish in the region, “Thailand is a strong market for poultry consumption, presenting significant growth opportunities.” 

Jadhav is optimistic that this acquisition will position Devyani as a key player in the QSR/LSR market in Thailand and the surrounding region and pave the way for additional growth. While still awaiting the management’s commentary about their growth and profitability plans for the newly acquired business, the analyst retains her estimates. She expects revenue and EBITDA to grow at CAGRs of 22.5% and 21.9%, respectively,  for FY24-FY25.

2. JK Lakshmi Cement:

Axis Direct retains its ‘Buy’ call on this cement manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,000, indicating an upside of 11.9%. Analysts Uttam Srimal and Shikha Doshi say, “Cement demand is expected to remain robust on the back of the government’s infra push, better real estate demand, private capex, and pickup from individual home builders.” 

The analysts remain optimistic due to JK Lakshmi Cement’s ongoing capacity expansion. They expect this expansion, along with strategic initiatives, to improve the company’s EBITDA/tonne from the current Rs 700/tonne to Rs 900 and Rs 970 in FY25 and FY26E, respectively. They estimate the company to deliver revenue, EBITDA and profit growth of 10%, 24% and 26% CAGR respectively over FY24-FY26, backed by an 8% volume growth CAGR over the same period. The management is aiming for a 7-8% volume growth CAGR over the next 3-4 years, driven by higher demand and cement consumption.

3. Delhivery:

BP Wealth assigns a ‘Buy’ rating to this logistic services provider with a target price of Rs 450, indicating an upside of 17.6%. Analysts at the brokerage say, “Delhivery's strategic positioning as the most efficient player in the logistics market has poised the company for significant growth in the rapidly expanding e-commerce sector.” They believe that this operational efficiency enables Delhivery to price its offerings competitively. 

The analysts are also optimistic about Delhivery's adaptability, underscored by its successful expansion into new markets, and the diversification of its customer base. A key aspect of its strategy is reducing its dependency on its top five customers, which currently account for 40% of its revenues. 

They also expect the anticipated growth of over 20% in the third-party logistics space, supported by category expansion, improved return logistics and a focus on tier-2 and 3 cities. They say, “Delhivery's focus on improving its market share and adapting to changing customer preferences positions it as a key player in logistics.”

4. Persistent Systems:

HDFC Securities maintains its 'Buy' rating on this IT consulting and software company with a target price of Rs 8,530, indicating an upside of 15.3%. Analysts Apurva Prasad, Amit Chandra, and Vinesh Vala are upbeat, citing its strength in product engineering services, consistent deal flow, market-share gains over tier-1 competitors, and strategic additions to its senior management. The analysts believe that the recent acquisition of enterprise software platforms of Software AG by IBM and the company's focus on GenAI solutions will boost its growth prospects.

Anticipating improved margins, Prasad, Chandra, and Vala highlight Persistent Systems’ ability to secure deals exceeding $50 million, with a notable focus on managed services and cost optimization. The analysts are confident that the company's expertise in software product engineering will drive market-share gains. New senior management hires from Microsoft, Tech Mahindra and other major players have been key in growing the business and attracting larger clients, helping the company's goal to hit the $2 billion revenue milestone.

5. Manappuram Finance:

Motilal Oswal maintains its 'Buy' rating on this non-banking financial company with a target price of Rs 205, indicating an upside of 19.3%. Analysts Abhijit Tibrewal and Nitin Aggarwal say, "To mitigate the cyclicality in the gold loan segment, the company is actively diversifying into non-gold lending." They anticipate achieving a target 50:50 mix between gold and non-gold businesses and foresee increased gold loan demand due to growth in economic activities.

Tibrewal and Aggarwal expect the company to use data analytics for informed credit decisions, reducing lending risk. They foresee growth in the vehicle loan segment, particularly with the introduction of automated two-wheeler loans. The company’s recent partnership with JCB, venturing into the used equipment business, adds to its vehicle finance portfolio. 

With an in-house field collection team and about 94% of customers using NACH (automated payment systems), Tibrewal and Aggarwal expect timely recovery to be a strength. The analysts view the company's diversified geographical presence as an effective de-risking strategy, that will be key to its long-term growth.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
26 Dec 2023
Market closes higher, Greenply Industries transfers 51% of stake in Greenply Middle East
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 21,441.35 (92.0, 0.4%), BSE Sensex closed at 71,336.80 (229.8, 0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 19,148.85 (94.2, 0.5%), of the 2,042 stocks traded today, 1,166 were on the uptrend, and 842 went down.

Indian indices maintained the gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green, with the Nifty 50 closing at 21,441. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose by 7.1% and closed at 14.7 points. Bharat Electronics won an order worth Rs 678 crore from the Uttar Pradesh government, for supplying AI software tools and cybersecurity solutions to the state's 'Dial 112 Project'.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed higher following the benchmark index. Nifty Metal and Nifty Oil & Gas closed higher than Friday’s closing level. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, chemicals & petrochemicals emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 1.9%.

Major European and US indices are closed today on account of Boxing Day. According to Singapore’s Department of Statistics, the country’s CPI inflation in November increased by 3.6% against estimates of 3.8% growth.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Allcargo Logistics, Shyam Metalics and Energy, Jubilant Ingrevia and Voltas are in the overbought zone.

  • NMDC rises to a new 52-week high of Rs 204.9 as iron ore futures rise to a 10-month high of $140 per tonne. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

  • RBL Bank and Bajaj Finance are falling as the RBI reportedly notes "serious deficiencies" in Bajaj Finance's adherence to guidelines concerning its co-branded credit card partnership with RBL Bank. The RBI has granted only a one-year extension, until December 21, 2024, for this partnership, despite Bajaj Finance seeking a longer duration.

  • Greenply Industries transfers 51% of its stake in its arm, Greenply Middle East, for $1.6 million to an investor group. Greenply Industries will cease to hold a controlling interest in the arm following this transaction.

  • Star Health and Allied Insurance Co is rising as 14.3 lakh shares (0.2% equity), amounting to approximately Rs 75.3 crore, change hands, according to reports.

  • Innova Captab's Rs 570 crore IPO gets bids for 55.2X the available 90.8 lakh shares on offer on the third day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 17.1X the available 45.8 lakh shares on offer.

  • Inox Wind rises after securing a 279 MW wind turbine generator order from a large commercial & industrial player. The order includes the supply of the company's 3 MW wind turbine generators and is expected to be completed by 2025.

  • Thermax is falling as the National Company Law Tribunal approves the demerger of its arms, Thermax Cooling Solutions and Thermax Instrumentation.

  • According to a poll by economists, India’s GDP is expected to grow by 6.7% in FY24, led by domestic demand and improvement in investments.

  • Bharat Electronics rises to an all-time high of Rs 184.5 as it bags an order worth Rs 678 crore from the Uttar Pradesh Government. The order involves the supply of AI software tools and cybersecurity solutions to the state's 'Dial 112 Project'.

  • Arman Financial Services falls after raising Rs 230 crore through qualified institutional placement. The issue price is set at Rs 2,195, which is a 16% discount to Friday's closing price. The company appears in a screener of stocks with declining cash flow from operations.

  • Godrej Properties launches a new residential project, Godrej Aristocrat, in Gurugram, selling 600 flats worth Rs 2,600 crore.

  • Rahul Thomas, Director at Suraj Estate Developers, reveals plans to launch three new projects by March. He adds that the company targets margins of 40% in redeveloped projects. Suraj Estate’s shares debuted on the bourses today at a 5.6% discount to the issue price of Rs 360.

  • US FDA closes an inspection of Zydus Lifesciences' API site in Changodar, Ahmedabad, with six observations. The PAI-cum-GMP inspection took place from December 14 to December 22, 2023.

  • Motisons Jewellers’ shares debut on the bourses at a 98.2% premium to the issue price of Rs 55. The Rs 151.1 crore IPO has received bids for 159.6 times the total shares on offer.

  • Swan Energy's subsidiary, Triumph Offshore (TOPL), prepays its Rs 300 crore debt from internal accruals. This repayment has been made to the consortium of senior lenders for its Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) Project.

  • Himanshu Baid, Managing Director of Poly Medicure, highlights the company’s entry into the cardiology and critical care segments. He projects a 20-22% revenue growth and 25-27% margin expansion for the company in FY24. Baid believes the industry will reach $50 billion by 2030.

  • One97 Communications falls amid reports of laying off 1,000 employees from its operations, sales, and engineering teams during its shift towards AI technology. The company appears in a screener of stocks with falling book value per share.

  • PNC Infratech rises as it receives a provisional completion certificate for the Unnao-Lalganj section of NH-31. The project, with a total cost of Rs 1,602 crore, was completed 33 days ahead of its schedule.

  • Kiddy Plast, promoter of VIP Industries, sells a 0.2% stake in the company. It now holds 2.3%.

  • CLSA maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Bharat Electronics with an upgraded target price of Rs 207. The brokerage says the company’s order inflows have surged 7X year-to-date and are expected to beat the FY24 inflow guidance of Rs 20,000 crore, led by OEM orders.

  • Saumya Polymers, promoter of Astral, sells a 1.4% stake in a block deal. It now holds 8.5% of the company.

  • JSW Energy rises as its subsidiary, JSW Renew Energy, begins phased commissioning of an 810 MW wind power project in Tamil Nadu. The first phase, with 51 MW, is now operational under a 25-year power purchase agreement with Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI).

  • KPIT Technologies rises as it acquires a 13% stake in cloud-based game aggregator N-Dream AG for 3 million euros (approx Rs 27.5 crore). This acquisition will help the company to enter into the cloud gaming space. It appears in a screener of stocks with low debt.

  • Infosys falls as a global company terminates a $1.5 billion (approx. Rs 12,475.1 crore) memorandum of understanding. The deal was for Infosys to provide AI solutions.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Divi's Laboratories Ltd. (3,863.50, 4.56%), Adani Green Energy Ltd. (1,600.20, 4.38%) and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (2,820.65, 4.33%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Zomato Ltd. (125.00, -2.72%), Bank of India (109.50, -2.06%) and Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. (570.20, -1.93%).

Volume Rockets

13 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Castrol India Ltd. (182.55, 12.30%), NLC India Ltd. (250.20, 11.75%) and Alkyl Amines Chemicals Ltd. (2,570.90, 11.54%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Poly Medicure Ltd. (1,442.55, -1.17%) and Jupiter Wagons Ltd. (320.30, -1.05%).

Balaji Amines Ltd. (2,614.60, 10.54%) was trading at 9.0 times of weekly average. Mahindra Lifespace Developers Ltd. (540.40, 1.51%) and Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd. (789.35, 5.04%) were trading with volumes 7.9 and 7.8 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

42 stocks took off, crossing 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Bayer Cropscience Ltd. (5,651.00, 0.91%), Bharat Electronics Ltd. (181.95, 4.09%) and Bharat Forge Ltd. (1,226.95, 2.10%).

7 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Alkyl Amines Chemicals Ltd. (2,570.90, 11.54%) and Restaurant Brands Asia Ltd. (111.40, 1.13%). 1 stock slipped below their 200 SMA including V-Mart Retail Ltd. (2,027.15, -3.67%).

 
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The Baseline created a screener Fast-growing, cheap valuation stocks
26 Dec 2023
 
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The Baseline
22 Dec 2023
Five Interesting Stocks Today

1. Jubilant Foodworks

This restaurant chain touched a new 52-week high of Rs 586.9 today, after its unit, Jubilant Foodworks Netherlands, launched a cash offer to acquire the remaining 45.3% in Domino's Pizza Eurasia. DP Eurasia operates the Domino's Pizza brand in Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

The acquisition is expected to take place at an average price of €1.1 per share, totaling approximately €73.4 million (Rs 668.8 crore). This move will help the company to expand its presence in pizza delivery, particularly in Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. 

Emkay Global says that the potential expansion into other underpenetrated regions is a future opportunity for Jubilant Foodworks. However, it remains cautious of the adverse currency movements and inflationary pressures in Turkey. The brokerage has a ‘Sell’ rating on the company.    

Meanwhile, on December 19, the company initiated a makeover drive for its pizza chain brand Domino’s. Under the campaign, 'It Happens Only with Pizza’, Jubilant Foodworks plans to upgrade its pizza stores, and introduce new packaging & delivery systems with an aim to boost consumer demand. According to Sameer Khetarpal, the MD and CEO, “Priority remains on growing Domino’s as well as our fried chicken brand Popeyes”. He also highlights that the company targets to have 3,000 Domino’s outlets in the medium term.

2. Varun Beverages:

This non-alcoholic beverages firm rose 12% to an all-time high of Rs 1,380 on December 20 as it announced the acquisition of South Africa’s The Beverage Company for Rs 1,320 crore. According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, VBL rose 19.4% in the past month, outperforming the food, beverage & tobacco sector by 13.4% in the same period. 

The Beverage Company’s (BevCo) acquisition gives VBL a presence in 10 African nations, including the five existing ones, with control over most of southern Africa. The market is projected to grow to 153.7 crore cases by CY27, with an expected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from CY22 to CY27E. BevCo achieved a sales volume of 11.7 crore cases in FY23 across its five manufacturing facilities. The volume distribution included 14.6% for the company's energy drink (Reebost), 14.9% for Pepsi brands, and 70.5% for other in-house brands.

Revenue from Sting and Gatorade increased by 50% YoY. Energy drink Sting contributed 15% to the revenue, and Gatorade contributed 7% in Q3CY23. The greenfield facility in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has an investment of Rs 1,600 crore for future expansions. VBL plans to launch another energy drink in India with PepsiCo which is forecast to further increase its volumes by 24%. 

PepsiCo branded carbonated drinks contributed 15% to the revenue of the company in India, with a growth in sales of 7.5% for Q3CY23. The company expects reduced seasonality as the South and West regions become more important. In Q3CY23, VBL reduced prices on major packs, boosting volumes.

KR Choksey says that PepsiCo and market leader Coca-Cola dominate over 80.0% of the carbonated drinks market in India. VBL, contributing around 90% to PepsiCo's beverage sales in India, benefits from industry growth factors like rising income, increased spending, large youth population, growing urbanization, and improved electricity and cooling equipment availability in rural areas. After completing significant capital expenditures in CY23 and CY24E, an increase in free cash flow is expected, helping reduce debt. The broker maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.

3. Nippon Life India AMC:

This asset management company rose by 2.9% in the last week and surged 39.1% in the last quarter. Monthly SIPs stood at Rs 17,073 crores, the highest ever, and the number of active demat accounts on CDSL crossed the ten crore mark in November. Nippon AMC is the fourth largest fund house in terms of equity assets under management (AUM).

The firm’s average AUM is expected to increase by 25% YoY in FY24 to Rs 3,664 crore with debt assets forming only 19% of total AUM, according to the management. This, they say, “signals a downward trend in debt assets due to volatile interest rates, new tax treatment restricting long-term capital gain benefits, and higher FD rates offered by banks”. 

BOB Capital expects the industry to grow by 15% in the medium term factoring in a 10% rise in annual inflows and believes hybrid funds could gain traction in times of weak debt inflows. 

Despite many new entrants in the industry, the firm’s focus on active management of investments could build a competitive advantage over the new entrants who focus mainly on passive funds. Analysts have noted that the firm is among the only few fund houses with a separate risk team and audit being done at both the scheme and AUM level. Additionally, the firm is looking to diversify its revenue sources by entering portfolio management services and alternative investment funds.

According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, the firm’s net profit is expected to grow at 24.9% YoY in FY24. Due to its established core business, the firm appears in a screener of companies with strong cash-generating ability from core business.

4. Aether Industries:

This specialty chemicals company rose 1.6% on Tuesday after the company entered a strategic agreement and contract with a lithium-ion manufacturer. The agreement is for the commercial supply of one specific electrolyte additive and to initiate the discussion on three other types of electrolyte additives. The electrolyte additive industry has a market size of $1.4 billion (approx. Rs 11,581.3 crore) in 2022. The industry’s market size is expected to grow to $3.5 billion (approx. Rs 29,405.3 crore) by 2028. Owing to this, it has also risen by 5% over the past week, helping it to appear in a screener of highest gaining stocks in the same period.

The company also signed an agreement with Saudi Aramco Technologies for its converge polyols technology on June 9. With this, the company jointly developed the manufacturing process using the converge polyols technology. The company also signed a letter of intent (LoI) with a US-based oilfield services company to become its strategic supplier and contract manufacturing partner on June 7. 

However, according to Trendlyne’s technicals, the stock has fallen by 19.2% over the past six months. It recently plunged by 10.8% in two sessions ending November 30 to nearly touch its listing price of Rs 744.4 per share. The stock declined after a fire broke out at its manufacturing facility in Surat on November 29 which injured 25 employees and prompted the Gujarat Pollution Control Board to forbid operations at the facility. 

HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the company with a target price of Rs 1,200 per share. This implies a potential upside of 35.1%. The brokerage believes that the company’s capacity expansion-driven growth, advanced R&D capabilities, skilled management, a leading market position in most products and diversification will help with revenue growth.

5. Cochin Shipyard: 

This marine port and services provider has risen by 19.1% in the past month. During the month, the company launched the first three anti-submarine warfare watercraft for the Indian Navy. The contract was signed with the Ministry of Defence (MoD) in April 2019 for eight ships. The company also signed a new contract worth Rs 488.3 crore with MoD on December 19, 2023, to repair and maintain the equipment and systems onboard the naval vessels. 

Cochin Shipyard’s current order backlog stands at Rs 22,000 crore, which will be executed over the next few years. The pick-up in execution provides strong earnings visibility in the coming years. The company expects to receive repeat defence orders and other opportunities worth Rs 13,000 crore in FY24-25. This increasing order inflow will be backed by the expansion of the dry dock and the completion of the international ship repair facility (Q1FY25). This will double the operational capability of the yard and enable the company to construct and repair larger vessels.

In Q2FY24, Cochin Shipyard’s net profit grew by 60.9% YoY to Rs 181.5 crore while the revenue increased by 47.7% YoY. It beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit estimate by 44.4% and revenue estimate by 22.7%. The company also appears in a screener for stocks with improving cash flow from operations for the past two years.

ICICI Direct gives a ‘Buy’ call on Cochin Shipyard and estimates its revenue, EBITDA and PAT to grow at 34%, 78% and 52% CAGR respectively over FY24-25. The analysts expect growth to be led by execution pick-up in all the segments.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

 
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The Baseline
22 Dec 2023
The punches you don't see coming | Screener: outperformers of 2023

The boxer Mike Tyson once said, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth". The world economy gets punched in the mouth, a lot.

In the leadup to 2024, news headlines are filled with predictions for the future. Economists and analysts look at political and macro trends, as well as their financial models to forecast what the next year holds for us.

The problem is that many of these predictions end up being wrong. The future is full of punches that we don't see coming.

Consider The Economist—a starchy, well-respected magazine - which makes a set of predictions in January every year. The writer Morgan Housel points out that the Economist's predictions for 2020 said nothing about Covid, even though China had informed the World Health Organization in December 2019 about "cases of pneumonia in Wuhan of unknown origin".

In 2022, the Economist did not mention a chance that Russia would invade Ukraine, even though by then, Putin had been assembling a huge military force along the Ukraine border for months. 

But that’s the point: the biggest risks, which turn our markets and politics upside down, are often underestimated, and obvious to us only in hindsight. People thought Covid was a regional flu; few believed Putin would actually attack. 

Even smaller predictions analysts regularly make and have good models to fall back on - like GDP growth and stock market levels - are rarely accurate. At the start of 2023, analysts were all over the place in their estimates for India's GDP growth and likely Nifty levels. India grew faster thanks to a spending boost from the Indian government, a healthy financial sector, and China's unexpected slowdown, which drove down oil prices.

Goldman Sachs came the closest when it came to predicting the levels Nifty would hit in 2023.

What are the risks that we are currently under-estimating, and not paying enough attention to? This week, we look at:

  • Three risks that may affect 2024, as we head into the new year
  • Screener: Stocks and industries that outperformed the index in 2023

Let's dive in.

1) The Red Sea turns red: Rising tensions in the Suez Canal can hit oil prices

The 192-km long Suez canal is the fastest sea route between Europe and Asia, andh transports 10% of the world's oil - around 92 billion barrels every year. With the Israel-Gaza war, the canal and the Red Sea have become conflict zones, as Iran-backed rebels, the Houthis in Yemen, have started attacking transport ships and oil tankers.

The tensions in the Suez have driven Brent crude oil prices up from a low of $73 per barrel earlier this month to over $80. If tensions worsen, it could spill over into a regional war that drags additional players like Iran into the mix. And of course, with a war cheap oil would go out of the window, hitting importers like India hard.

The other flashpoint is China and Taiwan. China has long claimed Taiwan as its own, and the US has pledged to defend it from any attack. Analysts have been saying that Chinese Premier Xi Jinping is more risk-averse than Putin, and unlikely to invade. But they have been wrong before.

Taiwan has its elections in January, and a win for the China-unfriendly Democratic Progressive Party may force Xi's hand. China is also in a bad spot economically. Exports have shrunk in 11 out of 13 months, and consumers are not spending. Leaders in a bad spot like Xi usually tend to look for a distraction. 

2) Unexpected results: A Trump win in the US, a mixed election result in India

The 2024 US election will likely be between two senior citizens: a 76 year old Donald Trump versus a 80 year old Joe Biden. This rerun of the 2020 election has many American voters disappointed about the choices available.

Trump is fighting a raft of legal cases, and running on a platform of revenge against his enemies and closing down the US economy. Despite all that, he is neck-and-neck in the polls with current President Biden. Some even show Trump leading. Many American analysts still think that the election is a likely Biden win. A win for Trump on the other hand, threatens many global efforts the Biden administration has signed onto, including the climate agreement and funding for the Ukraine war.

Back home in India, Modi remains a popular leader as we approach the Lok Sabha elections. But a spike in inflation, or rising worries around issues like unemployment, could dent the BJP's vote bank. Opposition parties have mainly focused on freebies instead of laying out an economic vision. A coalition or opposition win could threaten India's ambitious economic program.

3) Lies, lies and more lies: AI driving scams and misinformation

A fake video that triggers a riot in Tamil Nadu. A scam call to your parents asking for an OTP, telling them that their bank needs to verify their identity. A link in your gmail that when you click on, steals your passwords. There has been a 200% spike in cybercrime in India this year, and 54% of urban Indians say that they have been targeted by scammers. Disinformation and scams have become a problem for the internet and digital payments like UPI.

The rise of AI can can potentially make this even worse. Already, spoofing the voice of a family member using AI has become noticeable in phone scams.  OpenAI CEO Sam Altman talked about this last week: “A thing that I’m concerned about is what happens if an AI reads everything you’ve ever written online … and then right at the exact moment, sends you one message customized for you.” If scams and attacks become more high-volume, automated and personalized, frauds can become an even more significant problem for India in the coming year.

Finally, there is of course 4) the placeholder risk. The one that we don’t know about yet. The future is a place full of sharp turns and blind corners. Hopefully 2024 will be less surprising than the past three years. We could all use a break.

Screener: Stocks from industries beating Nifty 50 in year change %, outperforming their industries in 1-year change %

Shipping industry leads in Nifty 50 outperformance in year change %

This screener shows stocks from industries that have beaten the Nifty 50 index in terms of one-year change %. These stocks have also outperformed their industries in 1-year change, return on capital employed (RoCE) and return on equity (RoE).

Industries outperforming the Nifty 50 index include shipping, electrical equipment and construction & engineering industries. These industries outperformed the Nifty 50 index by 91.2, 86.8 and 66.1 percentage points over the past year respectively. Two stocks each represent the other electrical equipment and construction & engineering industries.

Major stocks that appear in this screener are Power Finance Corp, Apar Industries, The Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore, Rail Vikas Nigam, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Olectra Greentech and Polycab India. 

Among the stocks in the screener, Power Finance Corp has risen the most over the past year by 261.7%. This has helped the stock outperform its finance industry by 175 percentage points. The company has also outperformed its industry in terms of return on capital employed (RoCE) and return on equity (RoE). Strong power demand and government PLI schemes have helped power sector financing companies.

Apar Industries has outperformed the other electrical equipment industry in year change % by 114.2 percentage points owing to a 218.1% surge in its stock price over the past year. The stock has been on the rise for the past year thanks to premium product launches and growth in exports. This has helped the company to register a net profit CAGR of 35% over the previous five years.

You can find more popular screenershere.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
22 Dec 2023
Market closes higher, Bharat Electronics bags orders worth Rs 2,673 crore
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50closed at 21,349.40 (94.4, 0.4%), BSE Sensexclosed at 71,106.96 (241.9, 0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 19,054.70 (112.9, 0.6%). Market breadth is ticking up strongly. Of the 1,997 stocks traded today, 1,313 were in the positive territory and 636 were negative.

Indian indices closed in the green, with the benchmark index Nifty 50rising 94.4 points and closing at 21,349.4 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell marginally and closed at 13.7 points. Nifty 50 closed 0.7% higher this week amid high volatility. Allcargo Logistics closed 7.7% higher as it announced the demerger of its international business into a separate entity.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, outperforming the benchmark index. Nifty Metal and Nifty IT closed higher than their Thursday close. According to Trendlyne's sector dashboard, Forest Materials was the top-performing sector of the week as it rose 5.5% in a volatile market.

Major Asian indices closed flat or higher, except for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index closing in the red. European indices traded flat amid mixed global cues. US index futures traded marginally lower as investors looked ahead to US inflation data, scheduled to be released later today. Brent crude oil futures traded in the green and are set to post weekly gains for a second straight week.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Bharat Dynamics, Voltas and Birlasoft and are in the overbought zone.

  • KPI Green Energy is rising after its subsidiary bags an order from Radhamohan Dyeing and Printing Mills to set up a 1.8 MW solar project as a captive power producer.

  • PSP Projects bags an order worth Rs 158.9 crore from Gandhinagar Municipal Corporation for civil, electrical, mechanical, and plumbing works.

  • GAIL (India) rises over 7% in trade. The company ranks high on Trendlyne’s Checklist, scoring 52.2%. It also features in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

  • Realty stocks like Prestige Estates Projects, Phoenix Mills, Sobha and DLF rise more than 2% in trade today. All constituents of the broader Nifty Realty index are also trading in the green.

  • SVF India Holdings (Cayman) sells a 2.1% stake in One97 Communications. It now holds 7%.

  • Innova Captab's Rs 570 crore IPO gets bids for 3X the available 90.8 lakh shares on offer on the second day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 4.3X the available 45.8 lakh shares on offer.

  • Ramkrishna Forgings is rising as the National Company Law Tribunal approves the acquisition of ACIL.

  • Azad Engineering's Rs 740 crore IPO gets bids for 43.4X the available 1 crore shares on offer on the third day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 19.8X the available 50.6 lakh shares on offer.

  • Metal stocks like National Aluminium, Hindustan Copper, Steel Authority of India and Jindal Steel & Power rise more than 2% in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Metal index are also trading in the green.

  • Bharti Airtel is rising as it signs a partnership with aha Telugu and Tamil to provide regional content to its subscribers.

  • Godawari Power & Ispat rises as it receives approval from Chhattisgarh Environment Convention to operate its steel melting shop at an increased capacity of 5.2 lakh metric tonnes. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

  • Bharat Electronicsrises as it receives orders worth Rs 2,673 crore from Goa Shipyard and Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers for the supply of 14 types of sensors to be used on next-generation offshore patrol vessels. Additionally, the company has received orders worth Rs 86.2 crore for the supply of miscellaneous spares and services.

  • Energy stocks such as GAIL (India), Gulf Oil Lubricants India, Castrol India, and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals surge more than 3% in trade as Power Minister Raj Kumar Singh announces plans to enhance India's thermal power capacity.

  • Foreign institutional investors have invested Rs 15,890.9 crore in the equity market over the past week, according to Trendlyne's FII dashboard. Index options witness the highest outflow of Rs 81,903.8 crore from foreign investors. Meanwhile, mutual funds pulled Rs 370.8 crore from the equity market over the same period.

  • Lupinrises after signing an asset purchase agreement of €10 million (approx Rs 91.5 crore) with Sanofi. The deal strengthens the company's respiratory drugs portfolio in Germany following their successful launch in the US.

  • Tata Power's board plans a capex of Rs 60,000 crore over FY24-27, aiming to generate 100% of its power from renewable energy. The company plans to spend Rs 13,000 crore of the capex to set up two pump hydro projects near Pune with a total capacity of 2,800 MW. It aims to achieve a green energy capacity of 15 GW by FY27.

  • State Bank of Indiarises as it signs a $165 million (approx Rs 1,373.5 crore) line of credit from the World Bank. The bank appears in a screenerof stocks with nearing 52-week high with significant volumes.

  • Auto stocks like Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki India, TVS Motor and Ashok Leyland are rising in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Auto index are also trading in the green.

  • Polycab India is falling as reports suggest that the investigation wing of the Income Tax Department conducted searches at approximately 50 locations linked to the company in Mumbai on Friday.

  • AstraZeneca Pharma surges as it annouces the launch of Trastuzumab deruxtecan (Enhertu) in January 2024 in India. The drug is meant for the treatment of adult patients with breast cancer.

  • Life Insurance Corp of India surges almost 6% to touch its 52-week high of Rs 821 per share as the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, grants the company a one-time exemption to achieve a minimum public shareholding of 25%. The government has provided a time frame of 10 years since the company's listing (i.e., until May 2032) to achieve the 25% public shareholding target.

  • Allcargo Logistics rises 7% as it announces the demerger of its international business into a separate entity. The new entity, named Allcargo East India Continental United (ECU), will integrate India into the global supply chain operations of ECU Worldwide, including its international subsidiaries.

  • GMR Airports Infrastructurerises as the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund announces a Rs 675 crore investment in the company's greenfield project in Bhogapuram, Andhra Pradesh. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

  • WPILsurges 5% as it bags an order worth Rs 425.3 crore from the government of West Bengal to establish a turnkey project for the surface-based water supply scheme. The project is expected to be commissioned in 27 months, with another three years of operation and maintenance.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include GAIL (India) Ltd. (151.50, 7.68%), Wipro Ltd. (462.65, 6.60%) and Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. (3,569.05, 5.32%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Polycab India Ltd. (5,359.30, -4.63%), Varun Beverages Ltd. (1,238.60, -4.08%) and Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (1,066.40, -2.36%).

Volume Rockets

15 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included AstraZeneca Pharma India Ltd. (5,399.90, 14.05%), Piramal Pharma Ltd. (140.50, 9.00%) and J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (1,618.85, 8.87%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Polycab India Ltd. (5,359.30, -4.63%), IIFL Finance Ltd. (572.60, -3.79%) and Medplus Health Services Ltd. (726.55, -2.66%).

Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd. (13,316.65, -0.76%) was trading at 5.4 times of weekly average. Anupam Rasayan India Ltd. (1,008.50, -1.38%) and Castrol India Ltd. (162.55, 7.15%) were trading with volumes 5.3 and 5.3 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

37 stocks made 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (1,066.40, -2.36%), Bayer Cropscience Ltd. (5,600.10, 1.85%) and Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd. (1,405.80, 8.06%).

16 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Piramal Enterprises Ltd. (915.10, 3.78%) and V-Mart Retail Ltd. (2,105.00, 3.39%). 2 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Vedant Fashions Ltd. (1,278.35, -1.36%) and Restaurant Brands Asia Ltd. (110.50, -0.50%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
21 Dec 2023
Market closes higher, Suzlon Energy secures a repeat order with a total capacity of 193.2 MW
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 21,255.05 (104.9, 0.5%), BSE Sensex closed at 70,865.10 (358.8, 0.5%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 18,941.80 (162.4, 0.9%), of the 2,005 stocks traded today, 1,575 showed gains, and 401 showed losses.

Indian indices maintained the gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green, with the Nifty 50 closing at 21,255. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, dropped by 4.8% and closed at 13.8 points. Bandhan Bank approves the transfer of its non-performing asset (NPA) portfolio worth Rs 775.6 crore for a binding bid of Rs 280.4 crore from an asset reconstruction company (ARC).

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed sharply higher following the benchmark index. Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Oil & Gas closed higher than Wednesday’s closing level. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, fertilizers emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 3.5%.

Most European indices trade in the red. US indices futures trade higher, indicating a positive start. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Biden administration in the US is in discussion to raise tariffs on imported electric vehicles from China.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Varun Beverages, Voltas and Bharat Dynamics are in the overbought zone.

  • Media stocks like TV18 Broadcast, Dish TV India, Zee Entertainment Enterprises and Nazara Technologies surge more than 3% in trade. The broader Nifty Media index is also trading more than 2% higher.

  • Natco Pharma rises as it is dismissed from an anti-trust lawsuit in the USA regarding its Pomalidomide drug. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving book value per share.

  • Bhanu Prakash Srivastava, CMD of Bharat Electronics, highlights that the company's order inflow stands at Rs 23,300 crore so far, with additional orders in the pipeline. He adds that the company maintains its FY24 revenue growth and margin guidance of 15% and 21-23%, respectively.

  • Bandhan Bank's board of directors approves the transfer of its non-performing asset (NPA) portfolio worth Rs 775.6 crore, for a binding bid of Rs 280.4 crore from an asset reconstruction company (ARC). The bank will transfer the NPA portfolio with unpaid dues over 180 days to the ARC.

  • Credo Brands Marketing's Rs 549.8 crore IPO gets bids for 20.8X the available 1.4 crore shares on offer on the third day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 15.8X the available 68.7 lakh shares on offer.

  • RBZ Jewellers' Rs 100 crore IPO gets bids for 11.1X the available 79 lakh shares on offer on the third day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 20X the available 35 lakh shares on offer.

  • Vidyashankar Krishnan, VC and MD of M M Forgings, says the company has lowered its FY24 revenue guidance to around Rs 1,600-1,620 crore, compared to the earlier Rs 1,700 crore. He attributes it to sluggishness in exports and adds that the margins will be around 18%.

  • Happy Forgings' Rs 1,008.6 crore IPO gets bids for 22.8X the available 83.7 lakh shares on offer on the third day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 11.9X the available 42.4 lakh shares on offer.

  • State Bank of Indiais rising as it signs a €200 million (approx. Rs 1,823.6 crore) line of credit with the European Investment Bank to support its climate action projects in India.

  • Manali Petrochemicalssurges more than 5% as it resumes entire operations of Plant 2 in Manali, and has also initiated partial operations at Plant 1. The company is working on restoring the other manufacturing units at Plant 1.

  • The RBI predicts healthy growth for India's economy. However, it highlights that sticky inflation is impacting consumer demand and poses risk to growth. It expects inflation to average at 5.4% in FY24

  • UltraTech Cement is rising as it agrees to buy a 26% stake in Clean Max Terra for a consideration of Rs 20.3 crore to meet its green energy needs.

  • Zee Entertainment Enterprises surges more than 4% as Culver Max Entertainment (formerly Sony India) and Bangla Entertainment agree to enter negotiations to discuss the extension of the date required to make the merger effective.

  • Suzlon Energy surges more than 4% as it secures a repeat order to supply and commission 92 wind turbines with a total capacity of 193.2 MW from the KP Group. The order is part of a wind-solar hybrid and State Transmission Utility (STU) tariff-based project aimed at increasing renewable energy capacity in Gujarat.

  • Saurabh Gupta, CFO of Dixon Technologies, anticipates that the mobile segment will drive growth for the company, contributing to 60-65% of its revenues moving forward. He also expects an improvement in its RoCE.

  • Sapphire Foods Mauritius, promoter of Sapphire Foods India, has sold a 5.2% stake in the company. It now holds a 24% stake.

  • Inox India’s shares debut on the bourses at a 43.9% premium to the issue price of Rs 660. The Rs 1,459.3 crore IPO has received bids for 61.3 times the total shares on offer.

  • Tarsons Products rises as it will be acquiring Germany's medical distributor Nerbe for €10 to 15 million (approx Rs 91.1 to 136.7 crore). With this acquisition, the company aims to enhance its presence in Germany. The company appears in a screener of stocks with growing net profit and margins.

  • Ami Organics is falling as reports suggest that 46 lakh shares (12.5% equity), amounting to Rs 475.2 crore, change hands in a large trade.

  • Promoters of Astral, Saumya Polymers and Kairav Chemicals, sell 1.4% and 0.4% stake, respectively, in block deals on Wednesday.

  • Sunil Singhania buys a 6.7% stake in Shriram Pistons & Rings in bulk deals and a 7.9% stake through block deals on Wednesday.

  • Cochin Shipyard rises as it receives an order worth Rs 488.2 crore from the Defence Ministry. The order involves the repair and maintenance of equipment and systems onboard the naval vessel. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving net cash flow for the past two years.

  • Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders rises as it bags an order worth Rs 1,615 crore from the Ministry of Defence. The order involves the construction of six offshore patrol vessels for the Indian Coast Guard to be completed in the next 5 years.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd. (98.85, 6.92%), Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation Ltd. (868.25, 6.51%) and Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd. (571.40, 6.21%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Indian Bank (412.85, -3.93%), Supreme Industries Ltd. (4,463.75, -3.75%) and Star Health and Allied Insurance Company Ltd. (512.35, -2.04%).

Volume Rockets

12 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Shyam Metalics and Energy Ltd. (571.90, 9.75%), Metropolis Healthcare Ltd. (1,709.50, 7.25%) and Chemplast Sanmar Ltd. (510.60, 6.39%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Indian Bank (412.85, -3.93%), IIFL Finance Ltd. (595.15, -3.89%) and Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd. (359.80, -1.59%).

AstraZeneca Pharma India Ltd. (4,750.00, 2.90%) was trading at 10.6 times of weekly average. Aptus Value Housing Finance India Ltd. (327.80, 1.06%) and SKF India Ltd. (4,699.75, 1.19%) were trading with volumes 5.8 and 5.0 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

8 stocks made 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (1,092.15, 5.75%), Cyient Ltd. (2323.30, 5.53%) and Fortis Healthcare Ltd. (397.85, 1.56%).

10 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Delhivery Ltd. (387.95, 6.19%) and GMM Pfaudler Ltd. (1,609.10, 3.21%). 18 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Dabur India Ltd. (530.25, -0.88%) and Jamna Auto Industries Ltd. (105.85, -0.66%).

 
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The Baseline
21 Dec 2023
Chart of the Week: Nifty 50 rises 17.3% in a volatile year, set to close 2023 in the green
By Akshat Singh

As we near the end of 2023, the Indian benchmark index, Nifty 50, is set to close in the green for an eighth straight year. The rise in the benchmark index has accelerated in the past month, arising 7.6% to hit new life-highs. There’s been a shift in mood from the previous year, when most of the global indices were under pressure amid high inflation and recessionary fears. 

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we will be looking at India’s benchmark index, Nifty 50’s performance in 2023. As of December 21, the Nifty 50 is up 17.3% over the year, despite facing global inflation, recessionary risks in the US and Europe and conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India is expected to be among the fastest-growing economies in 2024 with a projected growth of 6.3%, thanks to its fast-growing middle class that is driving consumer spending.  

Nifty 50 gets off to a good start in 2023, but Hindenburg report crashes Adani stocks

2023 started well for equity markets, as Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s CEO Charles Evans hinted at a slower rate of increase in interest rates. Due to this, the Nifty 50 rose 1.4% on January 9. 

This rise was later offset by the benchmark declining 2.4% during the week ending January 22, due to Hindenburg's short position and explosive report on Adani group stocks. Hindenburg's report accused the group of stock manipulation and accounting fraud. In addition, the SEBI moved to the Supreme Court with regards to the NSE’s co-location scam involving its previous chief Chitra Ramakrishna, which led to a 1.2% fall in the index on January 25. 

On January 27, the Nifty 50 continued to fall by 1.6% due to the US GDP rising by 2.9% QoQ in Q3FY23, lower than the previous quarter's growth of 3.2%. This raised fears of a global recession. 

However, the index recovered with a rise of 1.4% on February 3, as the growth rate of the Indian services sector in December remained above the long-run average (53.5). The positive upturn was linked to good demand conditions. 

The Nifty 50 fell 1.5% on February 22 on fears of the US Federal Reserve hiking its interest rates. The Nifty 50 fell by 2.7% in the week of February 19. The Adani-Hindenburg effect started fading on March 3 with the index rising 1.6%. This can also be attributed to a 5% rally in the Nifty PSU Bank index on the same day, following the central government's 'bad loan initiative'.

Improved sovereign rating limits India’s exposure to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis

The US-based Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy on March 10, leading to a fall of 1.5% in the benchmark on March 13.  The Nifty 50 rose by 1.6% on March 31, after Morgan Stanley upgraded India to ‘Equal-Weight’ citing reduced valuation premiums and a strong economy. 

In the week of June 25, the Nifty 50 rose 2.8%. This rise was due to the Reserve Bank of India pausing its rate hikes and weak production data from China. Various restrictions on Chinese goods by the US and other countries shifted supply chains to India and lowered production for China. The Nifty Bank and Nifty 50 indices hit their respective record highs. 

There continued to be some pressure on the index, however, with Nifty IT falling by 4% due to pessimism and poor earnings by some large-cap IT companies like Infosys (which fell by 8%).

Israel-Hamas conflict raises volatility in markets

The Israel-Hamas conflict intensified on October 7 after which the index fell by 1% and 2.5% in the following weeks of October 15 and 22. The bearish streak was broken by the dovish stance of the US Federal Reserve, as it indicated that its interest rate hike cycle was coming to an end. 

In the week of November 26, the index rose by 2.4%. Master Capital Services attributes the impressive rise in the index to a combination of factors. A more dovish Fed, and the return of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) buying Indian stocks, as well as significant investments by domestic investors, boosted the index. Investors put in Rs 11,139 crores into the cash segment for November.

BJP state wins ahead of general elections drive Nifty 50 to all-time highs

On December 4, the index rose 2.1% as the BJP won three out of four state elections, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chattisgarh. Nuvama Institutional Equities says these results reduce the chance of a change in power at the center. On December 13, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate constant in its policy meeting. This led to the market rise by 1.2% on December 14. 

As we head into general elections in 2024, Nifty 50 is set to scale new highs. In seven of the previous eight instances of an upcoming Lok Sabha election, the average gain over six months leading up to the election period was 15.3%. It remains to be seen if investors will get lucky this year as well, considering that much of the gains may be baked in, and the indices are already near all-time highs

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
20 Dec 2023
Market closes lower, Happy Forgings' IPO gets bids for 6.2X the available 83.7 lakh shares
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 21,150.15 (-303.0, -1.4%), BSE Sensex closed at 70,506.31 (-930.9, -1.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 18,779.45 (-389.8, -2.0%), of the 2,009 stocks traded today, 160 were on the uptick, and 1,828 were down.

Indian indices fell sharply from their day highs and closed in the red on a volatile day of trade. The benchmark Nifty 50 index fell 303 points and closed at 21,150.2 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 4.2% and closed at 14.5 points. Blue Star closed 2.6% lower as Mumbai and Jaipur state tax authorities increased the tax demand to Rs 5.6 crore and Rs 53.6 lakh respectively.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed deep in the red, underperforming the benchmark index. Nifty Media and Nifty Energy closed sharply lower than their Tuesday close. According to Trendlyne's industry dashboard, Non-alcoholic Beverages was the top-performing industry of the day as it rose 6.7% in a weak market.

Major Asian indices closed higher, except for China’s Shanghai Composite index and India’s BSE Sensex closing in the red. European indices traded flat or higher amid mixed global cues. Brent crude oil futures traded in green after closing 1.7% higher on Tuesday. US index futures traded flat, indicating a cautious start to the trading session.

  • HDFC Asset Managementsees a long buildup in its December 28 future series as its open interest rises 14% with a put-call ratio of 0.3.

  • Blue Staris falling as the Deputy Commissioner of State Tax of Mumbai and Jaipur increase the tax demand to Rs 5.6 crore and Rs 53.6 lakh due to transitional credit and differential tax rate in outward supply.

  • Credo Brands Marketing's Rs 549.8 crore IPO gets bids for 5.1X the available 1.4 crore shares on offer on the second day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 7.3X the available 68.7 lakh shares on offer.

  • Reliance Jio gains 34.8 lakh wireless subscribers in September on a net basis, while Bharti Airtel adds 13.2 lakh. Vodafone Idea’s subscribers continue to decline, with a loss of 7.4 lakh on a net basis.

  • Happy Forgings' Rs 1,008.6 crore IPO gets bids for 6.2X the available 83.7 lakh shares on offer on the second day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 6.4X the available 42.4 lakh shares on offer.

  • Motisons Jewellers' Rs 151.1 crore IPO gets bids for 118.6X the available 2.1 crore shares on offer on the third day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 104.6X the available 1.1 crore shares on offer.

  • Suraj Estate Developers' Rs 400 crore IPO gets bids for 8.1X the available 82.3 lakh shares on offer on the third day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 7.3X the available 41.2 lakh shares on offer.

  • Kavinder Singh, Managing Director and CEO of Mahindra Holidays & Resorts, says the company will surpass 90% occupancy in December, driven by the holiday season. He also expects 84-85% occupancy in Q3FY24.

  • HDFC Securities maintains its 'Buy' rating on Can Fin Homeswith a downgraded target price of Rs 908 per share, indicating a potential upside of 15.6%. The brokerage believes that the lender's recent investments to widen its sourcing channels will boost net profit growth. It expects the company's profit to grow at a CAGR of 11.9% over FY23-26.

  • Muthoot Microfin's Rs 960 crore IPO gets bids for 7.4X the available 2.4 crore shares on offer on the third day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 4.1X the available 1.2 crore shares on offer.

  • Nazara Technologiesrises as it plans partnerships with four different Indian gaming studios: Smash Head Studios, Wandermind Labs, Pixcell Play, and ATG Studios. Under these partnerships, Nazara Technologies plans to release 20 games in the next 12 to 18 months, investing between Rs 1 crore and Rs 3 crores per game.

  • Jubilant Foodworksrises as its unit, Jubilant Foodworks Netherlands, launches a cash offer to acquire the remaining 45.3% in Domino's Pizza Eurasia. The acquisition will occur at an average price of 95 pence per share, amounting to €73.4 million (approx. Rs 668.8 crore).

  • One97 Communications (Paytm) is rising as 40.2 lakh shares (1% equity), amounting to approximately Rs 254.3 crore, change hands, according to reports.

  • Satin Creditcare hit its 52-week high of Rs 276 after the board approved the allotment of 1.08 crore shares at Rs 230.7 each to eligible qualified institutional buyers, raising about Rs 250 crore.

  • Embassy Office Parks REIT is falling as reports emerge that Blackstone is planning to sell its entire 23.6% stake in the company for Rs 6,931.5 crore at a floor price of Rs 310 per share in a bulk deal.

  • India Shelter Finance Corp’s shares debut on the bourses at a 14.5% premium to the issue price of Rs 493. The Rs 1,200 crore IPO has received bids for 36.7 times the total shares on offer.

  • Sameer Khetarpal, Managing Director and CEO of Jubilant Foodworks, says the company's like-for-like growth will be around 2-3%, with store addition at 10% annually. He expects the margins to grow by 100-150 bps from present levels in FY24. Khetarpal also highlights that the firm aims to surpass sales of Rs 1,000 crore for Popeyes in the coming 3-4 years.

  • DOMS Industries’ shares debut on the bourses at a 77.2% premium to the issue price of Rs 790. The Rs 1,200 crore IPO has received bids for 93.5 times the total shares on offer.

  • JK Tyre & Industries is rising as it opens its qualified institutional placement to raise Rs 500 crore, with the floor price set at Rs 358.9 per share. The company appears in a screener of stocks with high TTM EPS growth.

  • Oil & gas stocks like Oil India, Mahanagar Gas, Oil & Natural Gas Corp and GAIL are rising in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Oil & Gas are also trading in the green, helping it to touch its all-time high of Rs 9,329.3.

  • Goldman Sachs maintains its 'Buy' rating on Container Corp of India with an upgraded target price of Rs 850. The brokerage foresees stable Q3FY24 performance by the company, expecting an 8% growth in volumes. However, it anticipates lower margins during the quarter.

  • Transformers & Rectifiers (India) rises as it bags an order worth Rs 118 crore from Uttar Pradesh Power Transmission Corp (UPPTCL). The order involves the designing, engineering and manufacturing transformers and its accessories.

  • Bharat Petroleum Corp is rising as its board of directors has approved the establishment of a 400 KTPA polypropylene (PP) manufacturing facility at its Kochi refinery. The company expects the facility to be commissioned in the next 46 months with a capex of Rs 5,044 crore.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam rises as it bags an order worth Rs 123 crore in a joint venture with KRDCL. The project involves a significant upgrade of the Varkala Sivagiri Railway Station. The company appears in a screener of stocks with growing net profit and margins.

  • Varun Beverages rose to an all-time high of Rs 1,178 as it is set to acquire South Africa's The Beverage Company and its subsidiaries for Rs 1,320 crore. The company has also signed a Rs 450 crore MoU with the Jharkhand government for the Patratu manufacturing plant.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Varun Beverages Ltd. (1,253.40, 6.98%), Oil India Ltd. (360.60, 5.62%) and Supreme Industries Ltd. (4637.90, 4.66%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Indian Overseas Bank (42.30, -9.32%), UCO Bank (38.10, -8.85%) and Indus Towers Ltd. (180.65, -8.16%).

Volume Shockers

32 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Varun Beverages Ltd. (1,253.40, 6.98%), Oil India Ltd. (360.60, 5.62%) and Hatsun Agro Products Ltd. (1,123.70, 4.20%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were India Cements Ltd. (248.15, -7.67%), Jindal Worldwide Ltd. (302.30, -5.75%) and ITI Ltd. (282.65, -4.80%).

Grindwell Norton Ltd. (2,160.20, -0.59%) was trading at 20.0 times of weekly average. Symphony Ltd. (877.00, 0.12%) and SIS Ltd. (462.10, -0.84%) were trading with volumes 13.9 and 7.0 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

61 stocks hit their 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (1,032.80, -0.00%), Bajaj Finserv Ltd. (1,680.90, -1.69%) and Bank of Baroda (219.30, -3.01%).

4 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including GMM Pfaudler Ltd. (1,559.05, 0.79%) and VST Industries Ltd. (3,355.40, -0.51%). 24 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Piramal Enterprises Ltd. (885.35, -7.93%) and G R Infraprojects Ltd. (1,154.85, -6.16%).