As we near the end of 2023, the Indian benchmark index, Nifty 50, is set to close in the green for an eighth straight year. The rise in the benchmark index has accelerated in the past month, arising 7.6% to hit new life-highs. There’s been a shift in mood from the previous year, when most of the global indices were under pressure amid high inflation and recessionary fears. 

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we will be looking at India’s benchmark index, Nifty 50’s performance in 2023. As of December 21, the Nifty 50 is up 17.3% over the year, despite facing global inflation, recessionary risks in the US and Europe and conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India is expected to be among the fastest-growing economies in 2024 with a projected growth of 6.3%, thanks to its fast-growing middle class that is driving consumer spending.  

Nifty 50 gets off to a good start in 2023, but Hindenburg report crashes Adani stocks

2023 started well for equity markets, as Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s CEO Charles Evans hinted at a slower rate of increase in interest rates. Due to this, the Nifty 50 rose 1.4% on January 9. 

This rise was later offset by the benchmark declining 2.4% during the week ending January 22, due to Hindenburg's short position and explosive report on Adani group stocks. Hindenburg's report accused the group of stock manipulation and accounting fraud. In addition, the SEBI moved to the Supreme Court with regards to the NSE’s co-location scam involving its previous chief Chitra Ramakrishna, which led to a 1.2% fall in the index on January 25. 

On January 27, the Nifty 50 continued to fall by 1.6% due to the US GDP rising by 2.9% QoQ in Q3FY23, lower than the previous quarter's growth of 3.2%. This raised fears of a global recession. 

However, the index recovered with a rise of 1.4% on February 3, as the growth rate of the Indian services sector in December remained above the long-run average (53.5). The positive upturn was linked to good demand conditions. 

The Nifty 50 fell 1.5% on February 22 on fears of the US Federal Reserve hiking its interest rates. The Nifty 50 fell by 2.7% in the week of February 19. The Adani-Hindenburg effect started fading on March 3 with the index rising 1.6%. This can also be attributed to a 5% rally in the Nifty PSU Bank index on the same day, following the central government's 'bad loan initiative'.

Improved sovereign rating limits India’s exposure to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis

The US-based Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy on March 10, leading to a fall of 1.5% in the benchmark on March 13.  The Nifty 50 rose by 1.6% on March 31, after Morgan Stanley upgraded India to ‘Equal-Weight’ citing reduced valuation premiums and a strong economy. 

In the week of June 25, the Nifty 50 rose 2.8%. This rise was due to the Reserve Bank of India pausing its rate hikes and weak production data from China. Various restrictions on Chinese goods by the US and other countries shifted supply chains to India and lowered production for China. The Nifty Bank and Nifty 50 indices hit their respective record highs. 

There continued to be some pressure on the index, however, with Nifty IT falling by 4% due to pessimism and poor earnings by some large-cap IT companies like Infosys (which fell by 8%).

Israel-Hamas conflict raises volatility in markets

The Israel-Hamas conflict intensified on October 7 after which the index fell by 1% and 2.5% in the following weeks of October 15 and 22. The bearish streak was broken by the dovish stance of the US Federal Reserve, as it indicated that its interest rate hike cycle was coming to an end. 

In the week of November 26, the index rose by 2.4%. Master Capital Services attributes the impressive rise in the index to a combination of factors. A more dovish Fed, and the return of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) buying Indian stocks, as well as significant investments by domestic investors, boosted the index. Investors put in Rs 11,139 crores into the cash segment for November.

BJP state wins ahead of general elections drive Nifty 50 to all-time highs

On December 4, the index rose 2.1% as the BJP won three out of four state elections, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chattisgarh. Nuvama Institutional Equities says these results reduce the chance of a change in power at the center. On December 13, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate constant in its policy meeting. This led to the market rise by 1.2% on December 14. 

As we head into general elections in 2024, Nifty 50 is set to scale new highs. In seven of the previous eight instances of an upcoming Lok Sabha election, the average gain over six months leading up to the election period was 15.3%. It remains to be seen if investors will get lucky this year as well, considering that much of the gains may be baked in, and the indices are already near all-time highs