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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    07 Feb 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - February 07, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - February 07, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Kalyan Jewellers India:

    Thisjewellery retailer surged 22.4% over the past week after announcing itsQ3 results. This jump was primarily driven by a 40% YoY growth in revenue, which surpassedForecaster estimates by 1.3%. However, net profit growth fell short of projections by 6%, mainly due to the introduction of corporate tax in the UAE.

    The proposed customs duty cut on jewellery and platinum parts in the FY26Budget is expected to make platinum jewellery more affordable. The duty on platinum parts has been significantly reduced from 25% to 5%, and the duty on jewellery has been lowered to 20%. Suvankar Sen, CEO of Senco Gold, expects these measures to boost jewellery demand as the government aims to improve middle-class consumption.

    KJIL’s Indiabusiness, which contributes the majority of its revenue, recorded a 42% YoY growth. The remaining comes from the UAE, which saw a revenue growth of 23%, although net profit remained flat compared to the previous year. Losses in its e-commerce division, Candere, expanded to Rs 7 crore, with revenue of Rs 15 crore. Executive Director Ramesh Kalyanaramansaid, “We will focus on making the store (Candere) EBITDA positive in FY26.” He projected an ambitious revenue target of Rs 1,000 crore for Candere in “the next two-three years”.

    During Q3, KJIL opened 45 showrooms in India and launched its first showroom in the US, taking the total showroom count to 349. In FY26, the firm plans to expand its showroom count by over 40% and has already signed letters of intent for showrooms to be opened during H1FY26. KJIL owns approximately 60% of its stores, while the remainder operates under a franchise-owned, company-operated (FOCO) model. 

    The company is using about 50% of its profits to pay down its debt, which exceeds Rs 2,000 crore. The FOCO model and debt repayments are expected to result in an EBITDA margin contraction of around 100 bps. However, as the debt is paid and the company starts to add more stores of its own starting 2027, margins are expected to expand.

    2. Nestle India:

    This packaged foods company rose 4.3% on January 31 after announcing its Q3FY25 results, but has declined 3.8% since then. Nestle reported a 4% YoY revenue growth to Rs 4,780 crore, driven mainly by price hikes across three of its four product groups. Volume growth stood at ~1% YoY. The company’s e-commerce segment grew 38%, boosted by festive promotions and premiumization, with Kitkat, NESCAFÉ and Maggi playing key roles.

    Nestle's net profit increased 5% YoY during the quarter, but missed Forecaster estimates by 8.2% due to lower volumes, impacted by coffee and cocoa price inflation. The company’s management stated that if coffee prices stay high, it may introduce further price hikes.

    Nestle's packaged food penetration has grown in tier-2 and rural markets, with higher growth in ‘Rurban’ areas as the company focuses on premiumization. The company is expanding into previously untapped categories, adding cereals, flavored yogurts, cat food and premium coffees to its portfolio. However, it continues to offer mass-market products like Rs 10 noodles, which remain essential for rural and budget-conscious consumers.

    Chairman and Managing Director Suresh Narayanan said, “The premiumization trend is no longer limited to urban consumers—rural consumers also have a taste for premium products. We see a Rs 7,500 crore opportunity in this space across our categories.” He also said the Rurban strategy has helped Nestle reach more consumers. Over the past year, this strategy has expanded distribution reach by 5%.

    Speaking on the capex, Narayanan mentioned that the commissioning of its third confectionery unit at the Sanand factory for Kitkat will boost manufacturing capacity, supporting the Rs 5,800 crore capex goal from 2020 to 2025.

    Motilal Oswal has a ‘Neutral’ rating for Nestle. The brokerage notes that Nestlé's portfolio faces limited competition from local players, reducing the need for high overhead costs to protect market share. However, with the ongoing inflation, maintaining margins remains crucial. They estimate EBITDA margins of 24% for FY25-26.

    3. Swiggy:

    This internet & catalogue retail company has plunged over 9% in the last two days after its Q3FY25 results showed losses outpacing revenue growth. Swiggy’s net loss widened 39.1% YoY to Rs 799.1 crore due to higher finance costs, employee benefits, advertising, and delivery expenses. The company’s revenue grew 31% YoY to Rs 3,993.1 crore during the quarter due to improvements in the food delivery, out-of-home consumption, and supply chain & distribution segments.

    During the quarter, gross order value (GOV) grew 38% YoY, while the average MTU (monthly transacting users) increased 25.3%, driven by innovations like Bolt (10-minute food delivery) and better execution. Bolt constitutes 9% of the overall food deliveries. The food delivery business’ GOV was up 19.2% YoY. Rohit Kapoor, CEO, Food Marketplace, said, “The October-December quarter is usually slightly softer than others, but we are growing at 19.2%, which is within the range of what we've guided (18 to 22% growth)".

    Swiggy’s management is optimistic that the income tax cut announced in the Union Budget 2025-26 will increase disposable income, driving higher discretionary spending and boosting the food delivery business. It expects its GOV to grow by 18-20% YoY in FY26.

    The company’s quick commerce unit Swiggy Instamart added 96 dark stores on a net basis in Q3FY25, taking the total store count to 705. However, analysts highlighted that Instamart’s GOV (up 88% YoY) lagged in comparison to Zomato’s Blinkit, which surged ~1.2X YoY. Swiggy’s management noted that competition in quick commerce remains intense in Q4 and is unlikely to ease soon. Competitors like Zepto are also expected to stay aggressive in acquiring customers ahead of their public listing. It has reiterated its guidance of doubling its dark stores and raising the store size by the end of FY25.

    Kotak Institutional Equities initiated coverage on the company with a 'Buy' call, and set a target price of Rs 500. The brokerage highlights Swiggy’s unified platform approach, integrating multiple services within a single app, which enhances customer acquisition and cross-selling opportunities. However, it remains cautious due to potential challenges, including increasing competition from Zomato in food delivery along with Blinkit and Zepto in quick commerce.

    4. Hitachi Energy India:

    Thiselectrical equipment company surged 20% on January 30 following the announcement of itsQ3FY25 results. During the quarter, the company’s net profit soared five-fold YoY to Rs 137.4 crore in Q3FY25, driven by inventory destocking and higher order backlog. Revenue grew 27.2% YoY to Rs 1,620.3 crore due to improved order execution.

    Hitachi Energy India’s Q3 order intakesurged eight-fold YoY, reaching a record high of Rs 11,594.3 crore, supported by higher number of orders from data centers and the renewables segment. As a result of this growth, the companyachieved debt-free status in the quarter. The company’s order backlog grew 1.5X YoY to Rs 18,994.4 crore. MD & CEO of Hitachi Energy India, N Venu,said, "Quarter-on-quarter, order inflow growth will depend on market conditions and we are looking at high single-digit to high double-digit growth.”

    A key contributor in the order backlog growth was an ordersecured in partnership withBharat Heavy Electricals. The company won an HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) order fromPower Grid Corporation to build a high-voltage power line that will transport renewable energy from Khavda (Gujarat) to Nagpur (Maharashtra), covering 1,200 km.

    On January 18, the company’s board approved aproposal to raise funds up to Rs 4,200 crore. These funds will be utilized for capacity expansion at its transformer factory, upgrading testing facilities, and increasing capacity for traction transformers and network control solutions. N Venuadded, ”We plan to invest Rs 2,000 crore in India over the next four to five years for expansions, capacity building, and talent attraction.” 

    Post results, Geojit BNP Paribasupgraded its rating to ‘Buy’, highlighting the strong order backlog, and ongoing capacity expansion. The brokerage sets a target price of Rs 13,825, expecting a CAGR of 26.3% in revenue, 60% in EBITDA, and 73% in net profit over FY25-27.

    5. Indian Oil Corporation:

    This oil marketing and distribution company declined by over 5% in the past month. It announced its Q3FY25 results on January 28th. During the quarter, its net profit declined by 76.6% YoY to Rs 2,115.3 crore. Revenue was down 3.1% YoY, primarily due to a 4% decline in revenue of the petroleum products segment. However, the company’s revenue beat forecaster estimates by 18.3%, thanks to an 8% QoQ recovery in refining volumes to 18.1 million metric tonnes (MMT). It appears in a screener for stocks which have given consistent high returns over 5 years in Nifty 500.

    The Russia-Ukraine conflict, weakness in the Chinese economy, and a weakening rupee have significantly impacted the company’s performance in FY25. However, according to the latest estimates from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) published in January 2025, India's petroleum product demand is expected to reach an all-time high of 252.9 MMT in FY26, reflecting a 4.65% YoY growth. To meet this demand, the company has outlined capital expenditure plans totaling Rs 72,000 crore.

    Regarding capex guidance, Anuj Jain, Director Finance of Indian Oil, said, "Indian Oil is investing Rs 72,000 crore to increase its refining capacity by 25%, reaching a total of 88 MMTPA. This includes Rs 38,000 crore for the expansion of Panipat refinery, Rs 19,000 crore for the expansion of Gujarat refinery (both expected to be completed in FY26) and Rs 14,800 crore for the expansion of Barauni refinery, which is anticipated to be finished in 1-2 years."

    Speaking on Russian crude imports to India, Mr. Jain said, “We source crude from various markets, including Russia, based on the lowest price. IOCL doesn't have a term contract for Russian crude in FY25. The intake in FY26 will depend on available discounts and freight costs, as Russian crude comes in smaller tankers compared to Middle East crude which comes in Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs).”

    Goldman Sachs has upgraded IOCL to a ‘Neutral’ rating, noting a 25% drop in Indian OMCs stock prices since early 2024, driven by reduced crude discounts and LPG under-recovery. The brokerage however, believes these concerns are already reflected in OMC stock prices. It forecasts an improved outlook for OMCs in FY26-27, driven by capped crude prices and potentially higher discounts on Russian crude. It also expects Brent crude to drop to $70 per barrel by the end of the year and anticipates a recovery in free cash flow for OMCs in FY26.

    Post results, Motilal Oswal has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on IOCL. The brokerage highlights that IOCL’s major refinery expansions are slated for commissioning in H2FY26. However, considering the sequentially weak refining performance and expected medium-term weakness in the segment, it has reduced its target price to Rs 145.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    07 Feb 2025
    Chart of the Week: In a muted quarter, finance stocks deliver the highest YoY growth

    Chart of the Week: In a muted quarter, finance stocks deliver the highest YoY growth

    By Abdullah Shah

    It’s been a muted Q3FY25 results season, with a large number of companies seeing negative profit growth. But there have been some bright spots, and we look at the best-performing stocks so far. In this chart of the week, we spotlight a screener of stocks with rising Trendlyne momentum scores, which delivered strong YoY growth in revenue and net profit. 

    Stocks from the banking, finance (including NBFCs), capital markets, IT consulting & software, and agrochemicals industries show up in the screener. The most notable companies here are Multi Commodity Exchange of India, DOMS Industries, Cholamandalam Investment & Finance, Bajaj Finance, Navin Fluorine International, ICICI Securities, Laurus Labs, and Karur Vysya Bank.

    Banking & finance stocks see high growth in Q3FY25

    Multi Commodity Exchange of India’s (MCX) Trendlyne momentum score has risen to 57 over the past month after its revenue grew 57.4% YoY in Q3FY25. Meanwhile, the company posted a net profit of Rs 160 crore during the quarter compared to a net loss of Rs 5.4 crore in Q3FY24. This helped the capital markets firm’s revenue to beat Forecaster estimates by 5%. Revenue increased due to growth in the options average daily turnover (ADT), futures ADT and transaction value during the quarter. 

    The company’s MD and CEO, Praveena Rai, said, “Moving forward, MCX will be continuing to look at launching new commodity derivative contracts, as well as looking at innovations in our existing products and processes, mapping, and studying the evolving needs of the industry.”

    Cholamandalam Investment & Finance’s (CIFC’s) momentum score jumped to 52 after its Q3FY25 revenue and net profit grew 34.5% YoY and 24.8% YoY, respectively. The non-banking financial company’s (NBFC’s) revenue rose thanks to improvement in assets under management (AUM), vehicle financing, property loans, and home loans. This helped revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 3.8% and 3%. 

    Ravindra Kumar Kundu, MD, states, “CIFC retains its leadership in vehicle financing, with strong AUM growth despite sector challenges like inflation and supply chain disruptions. Infrastructure and capex spending in India will drive growth in heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) financing. Expansion into Tier 3 & Tier 4 towns for home loans will help us longterm.”

    Bajaj Finance’s momentum score jumped to 66 after its Q3FY25 revenue and net profit grew 27.4% YoY and 16.7% YoY, respectively. The non-banking financial company’s (NBFC’s) revenue rose, led by new customer additions, improvement in loan disbursals, and assets under management. This helped its revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 2% and 2.6%. 

    ICICI Securities’ Trendlyne momentum score increased to 53 over the past month as its revenue and net profit rose 19.9% YoY and 8.3% YoY in Q3FY25. Revenue growth was driven by an improvement in the broking & distribution and issuer services & advisory segments, while net profit rose due to a reduction in commission expenses. 

    Karur Vysya Bank also features in the screener, with its Trendlyne momentum score rising to 65 after posting a 16.2% YoY and a 20.5% YoY growth in its Q3FY25 revenue and net profit. This bank’s revenue and net profit surpassed Forecaster estimates by 173% and 5.8%. Revenue rose due to improved corporate & retail banking, while net profit increased due to lower provisions and employee benefits expenses. 

    Analysts at BNP Geojit Paribas believe that India’s loan growth has peaked and expect deposit growth to align with loan growth in FY26-27. They anticipate the bank’s loan book to grow by 10.4% in FY26E and 11.6% in FY27E, while deposit growth is expected to decrease but remain stable at 10.9% for FY26E and 11.8% for FY27E.

    Stationery, commodity chemicals and pharma stocks deliver strong results 

    Pharmaceuticals player Laurus Labs, witnessed its Trendlyne momentum score rising to 71 over the past month due to its revenue and net profit growing 18.4% YoY and 298.9% YoY, respectively in Q3FY25. Both revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 7.7% and 41.3%, respectively, on the back of an increase in sales from the contract development & manufacturing organisation (CDMO) and formulation (FDF) segments. 

    DOMS Industries' Trendlyne momentum score increased to 54 in the last month, helped by its revenue and net profit growing 34.9% YoY and 35.9% YoY, respectively, in Q3FY25. Its revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 4.6% and 8.3%, respectively. This stationery company’s revenue jumped owing to increased sales of school stationery and office supplies. 

    DOMS’ MD, Santosh Rasiklal Raveshia, said, “The new distribution agreement with FILA will offer significant growth potential in South Africa, Australia, the US, and Europe markets, utilising FILA's strong network in over 100 countries.”

    Navin Fluorine International appears in the screener with its Trendlyne momentum score rising to 66 as its revenue increased 20.8% YoY in Q3FY25. Its net profit jumped 7.2% YoY during the quarter. Both revenue and net profit surpassed Forecaster estimates by 4.9% and 17.3%, respectively. Increase in high-pressure processing (HPP) and specialty chemicals segments helped revenue growth, while higher capacity utilisation at the Dahej and Surat plants; and lower inventory and employee benefits expenses assisted in net profit rise. 

    Analysts at Edelweiss believe that the capacity expansion at Navin Fluorine’s R32 facility will improve optimisation amid a recovery in demand, higher demand in the agro-specialty business, and a recovery in the contract development & manufacturing organisation (CDMO) will help growth in FY26-27. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 27.2% over FY26-27.

    Commenting on its results, Laurus Labs’ Founder and CEO, Satyanarayana Chava, said, “The strong progress in the CDMO business will help to achieve long-term growth. The strategic investment by Eight Roads in our biotech arm will further expand our efforts toward building a commercial scale sustainable manufacturing capability, helping boost revenue growth."

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    The Baseline
    06 Feb 2025
    Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q3FY25?

    Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q3FY25?

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    Investors closely track superstar investors like RARE Enterprises, Ashish Kacholia, Sunil Singhania, and Vijay Kedia for insights into the market. Their buying and selling activity helps retail investors identify interesting sectors and stocks. Let’s take a look at their top buys in Q3FY25.

    (You can now invest in shadow superstar baskets available on Starfolio, which are updated and rebalanced in line with Trendlyne's superstar portfolios).

    In Q3, most superstar investors stayed cautious as markets fell, making fewer additions and more stake sales, continuing the trend from the September quarter. The chart below shows the changes in superstar investors' current public portfolio net worth. 

    Note that net worth includes both current holding changes, and new buys & sells. 

    Each superstar investor's portfolio reflects their unique investing style and sector preferences. The following chart highlights the dominant sectors in each investor’s public portfolio. 

    Sector preferences vary among superstar investors – RARE Enterprises leans towards the diversified consumer services sector, while Ashish Kacholia favours general industrials. Sunil Singhania prefers the metals & mining sector, and Vijay Kedia’s preferred industry is automobiles & auto components. Dolly Khanna leans more towards the oil & gas industry, and Porinju Veliyath focuses on software & services.

    RARE Enterprises reveals a 49.3% stake in a newly listed company during Q3

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio, currently managed by Rekha Jhunjhunwala and RARE Enterprises, has risen by 16.9% to Rs 64,384.4 crore as of February 5. RARE Enterprises disclosed a stake in one newly listed company and made a minor increase in another during the quarter.

    Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio includes a 49.3% stake inInventurus Knowledge Solutions, a healthcare services company. This drove the overall net worth higher. The company debuted on the bourses on December 19, 2024, with itsIPO oversubscribed by 52.7 times and has gained 30.7% since listing. RARE Enterprises is part of Inventurus’ promoter group. The late Rakesh Jhunjhunwala acquired a stake in the company in 2007.

    During Q2, RARE increased a minor stake in Geojit Financial Services. The portfolio now holds a 7.2% stake in this capital markets company. Over the past year, the company’s share price has increased by 11%. 

    Ashish Kacholia adds two new companies to his portfolio

    Ashish Kacholia’s net worth has declined by 18.3% to Rs 2,858.7 crore as of February 5. During the quarter, the investor added two new companies to his portfolio and raised stakes in another two companies. 

    Kacholia’s biggest buy during the December quarter was Texel Industries, a plastic products maker. The ace investor bought a 7.9% stake in the company. The company’s share price has increased by 77.4% over the past year, outperforming its industry by 58.2% points. 

    During Q2, he also acquired a 3.8% stake in Aelea Commodities. Over the past quarter, the cashew processing company has surged by 27.1%, outperforming its industry by 43% points. 

    He increased his stake in Xpro India by 0.5%, bringing his holding to 4.2%. Xpro has a high Durability score of 70 and 52 on Trendlyne’s checklist. Kacholia also made a minor increase in Aeroflex Industries, now holding 1.8% in the iron & steel products maker.

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund adds a textiles company in Q3

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund saw its net worth fall by 17% to Rs 2,654.9 crore as of February 5. The fund made its first new stock addition since Q3FY24 and increased a minor stake in a household appliances company.

    Abakkus Fund's most notable investment was a 6.8% stake in Himatsingka Seide, a textile manufacturer. The company has a Durability score of 70, reflecting strong financial stability, along with an affordable valuation. However, its stock price has declined by 5% over the past year.

    The fund also raised its stake in Hindware Home Innovation by 0.1%, now holding 4.6% in the household appliances manufacturer.

    Vijay Kedia increases stake in three companies during Q3FY25

    Vijay Kedia’s net worth decreased by 2.7% to Rs 1,627 crore. During the October-December quarter, the ace investor increased his stake in an airlines company.

    The investor raised his stake in Global Vectra Helicorpby buying a 0.2% stake. Over the past year, this airlines company’s share price has zoomed 126.3%, outperforming its industry significantly by 89.9% points. 

    Dolly Khanna adds three new companies in Q3, raises stakes in four

    Dolly Khanna’s net worth decreased by 34.8% to Rs 397.9 crore as of February 5, and publicly holds 19 companies. During Q3, she continued to expand her portfolio by adding three new companies and raising stakes in four others. Her new investments include a 1.2% stake each in metals & mining company Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys, and Rajshree Polypack, a containers & packaging firm, along with a 1.1% stake in household appliances maker Stove Kraft. 

    Trendlyne classifies both Indian Metals and Rajshree Polypack as Strong Performers, Under Radar. Meanwhile, Stove Kraft has risen by 81.7% over the past year, outperforming its industry by 59.9% points. 

    During the third quarter, Khanna bought a 0.3% stake in capital markets company Emkay Global Financial Services, taking her holding to 2.8%. She bought a 0.2% stake in fertilizers stock Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers and now holds a 1.8% stake. 

    The ace investor added minor stakes in the sugar stock KCP Sugar & Industries Corp and metals & mining company Prakash Industries. She now holds 1.8% and 1.3% stakes, respectively, in these companies. 

    Porinju Veliyath adds an auto parts company 

    Porinju Veliyath’s net worth decreased by 10.7% to Rs 248.8 crore. During the December quarter, he added Sundaram Brake Lining to his portfolio, acquiring a 1% stake in the auto parts & equipment manufacturer. Over the past year, the company has risen by 64.6%, outperforming its industry by 54.9% points. Sundaram Brake Lining is a Mid-range Performer with high financial strength and mid-valuation, scoring 85 and 35.3, respectively.  

    Veliyath also added a 0.5% stake in an IT software company Aurum Proptech, taking his holding to 5.9%. The company’s share price has increased by 32.8% in the past year, outperforming its industry by 20.1% points. 

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    The Baseline
    05 Feb 2025
    Market correction hits superstar investor portfolios | Screener: Stocks with positive surprises in results

    Market correction hits superstar investor portfolios | Screener: Stocks with positive surprises in results

    By Tejas MD

    Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is probably not very happy with Tariff ManDonald Trump, considering how his tariff announcements stomped all over her Budget buzz.

    The Budget this year was a careful balancing act, with big income tax cuts for consumers as well as lower import duties to boost manufacturing. All this got eclipsed by Trump's tariff threats, and market chaos peaked on Sunday, as Nasdaq futures crashed 2.5%.

    Last-minute agreements with Mexico and Canada have now delayed tariffs for a month. But Trump is the chaos president. Just yesterday, on February 4 he announced that the US plans to seize the Gaza strip, relocate its two million residents elsewhere, and turn it into a 'riviera'.

    Trump said, "Everybody I have spoken to loves the idea of the United States owning that land". Well, everybody except almost every country in the Middle East.

    So, how are superstar investors playing this volatile market?

    In this week’s Analyticks, 

    • Superstar investors see their net worth fall from their peak
    • Screener: Stocks with positive surprises in Revenue and EPS this quarter

    Market correction hits superstar investors' portfolios

    India's benchmark indices have fallen 12% from their all-time highs. Relentless FII selling, muted earnings and worries about a trade war are spooking investors.

    Superstar investors haven’t been spared either, despite their long experience and in-house research teams. 

    Major superstar investors see their net worth fall in 2025

    With negative market sentiment in Q3FY25, only two major superstar investors—Mukul Agrawal and Vijay Kedia—managed to grow their net worth. 

    Mukul Agrawal's gains were primarily from his bet on BSE, which surged 22% during the quarter. The stock constitutes 14% of his portfolio, making it the key driver of his overall performance. 

    Vijay Kedia’s gains came from TAC Infosec, which rose 14% in Q3 and contributes 14% to his total holdings.

    Outside of these two, most superstar investors have faced significant declines since the correction began in Q2FY25. 

    Dolly Khanna’s public portfolio slumped 25.5% in Q3, dragged down by Chennai Petroleum, which fell 17%. That one stock alone makes up 25% of her holdings - an argument for diversification, folks.

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala & Associates saw a rise in overall net worth in January 2025, but that was mainly due to a Rs 14,953 crore fund infusion into a newly listed company (Inventurus Knowledge) on December 19, 2024. Without this capital injection, the portfolio actually declined 4.6% in January.

    Ace investors’ net worth fall from their Q1FY25 peak 

    As expert investors saw their net worth fall, most decided to either hold or trim their stakes. Buys were few. But Mukul Agrawal has followed a different strategy - he shuffled his portfolio significantly, both decreasing his stakes in 12 companies and buying shares in eight new companies. 

    Mukul Agrawal breaks the trend, buys several stocks even as he sells

    We will have to wait and see if these new buys turn out to be smart bets. 

    Expert investors buy new stakes in financially strong and recently listed companies

    The group of top investors we analyzed acquired in total, new stakes in 15 companies in Q3, mainly in the small-cap space. Mukul Agrawal contributed eight of these new additions.

    Two clear patterns emerge from this list. First, six of these new buys were recently listed on the exchanges and outperformed the benchmark index over the past quarter. Second, these stocks have strong financials, as reflected in Trendlyne’s Durability scores.

    Two sectors stand out among these investments—commercial services & supplies and textiles, apparel & accessories, both appearing frequently in the portfolio updates.

    Superstar investors are buying stocks with good financial health

    Note that newly listed companies don’t yet have some Trendlyne scores.

    The quarter's best performer was KRN Heat Exchanger (listed on exchanges on October 3) picked up by Mukul Agrawal. In fact, five of the six recently listed stocks have delivered better returns than the Nifty50 in the last three months. 

    Superstar investors pick up stakes in recently listed companies

    Superstar investors sell stakes in underperforming companies 

    Nine stocks exited superstar portfolios in the past quarter. Barring Jagsonpal Pharma, all other companies have underperformed the Nifty50 in the past quarter. 

    Superstar investors sell underperforming stocks in Q3FY25

    The list includes stocks from pharma to banking and finance. The top loser on the list is the software and services company E2E Networks, which was sold by Ashish Kacholia. 

    Rare Enterprises and Dolly Khanna reduced their stake to below 1% in Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company and Pondy Oxides Chem, respectively, in Q3. 

    Top performers: Mukul Agrawal's 2017 bet Neuland Labs delivers growth

    When we look at long-term bets by these superstars, Mukul Agrawal's Neuland Labs and Kacholia’s Shaily Engineering Plastics come out on top. Neuland Labs and Shaily Engg contribute around 13.5% of their portfolios. 

    Best performing long-term holdings: Mukul Agrawal's Neuland Labs tops the list

    Bhanshali’s Gujarat Fluorochemicals (30% of total holding value) and Khanna’s Chennai Petroleum Corp (22% of total holding value), on the other hand, have relatively lagged since they bought the stock. However, Bhanshali's net worth has almost tripled in the past two years due to high performance in their other holdings and fresh buys in new stocks. 


    Screener: Stocks with positive surprises in Revenue and EPS in Q3FY25

    Cement & construction stocks beat Forecaster estimates in Q3FY25

    As we are past the halfway point of the Q3FY25 results season, we look at stocks that have outperformed estimates with the highest margin. This screener shows stocks where quarterly revenue and EPS in Q3FY25 beat Forecaster estimates.

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the realty, general industrials, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, metals & mining, and banking & finance sectors. Major stocks that show up in the screener are Bharat Electronics, Brigade Enterprises, Ambuja Cements, Coromandel International, Bajaj Finserv, ACC, Canara Bank, and Indian Hotels.

    Bharat Electronics features in the screener with the highest Forecaster revenue surprise of 17.4% in Q3FY25. Meanwhile, its net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 29.3% during the quarter. This aerospace & defence company’s revenue and net profit grew by 37.6% YoY to Rs 5,957.1 crore and 52.5% YoY to Rs 1,311 crore, respectively. Its revenue increased on the back of its order book rising by Rs 11,000 crore to Rs 71,100 crore so far in FY25. Net profit rose due to a reduction in inventory costs. 

    Ambuja Cements’ revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 14% and 75.5%, respectively in Q3FY25. This cement & cement products firm’s revenue grew by 26.6% YoY to Rs 1,529.7 crore, driven by an improvement in sales of cement and ready-mix concrete. Its net profit surged 157% YoY to Rs 2,115.3 crore owing to a tax return of Rs 805 crore and lower finance costs. 

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    05 Feb 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - February 05, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - February 05, 2025

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. DLF:

    Edelweiss maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this Delhi-based realty company with a target price of Rs 1,040. This indicates an upside potential of 36.5%. In Q3FY25 its net profit grew 61.2% YoY to Rs 1,058.7 crore, helped by a deferred tax credit of Rs 820.3 crore and increase in revenue from its subsidiaries and joint ventures (JVs). Revenue increased by 5.7% YoY to Rs 1,737.5 crore, thanks to an improvement in new sales bookings. 

    Analysts Amit Agarwal and Akhil Lalchandani highlight a 34% YoY increase in pre-sales to Rs 12,093 crore, driven by strong demand and festive season buying. The company plans four launches in Q4, covering 9 million square feet (msf) with a gross development value (GDV) of Rs 44,100 crore. It also aims to launch 28 msf (Rs 70,400 crore) after FY25, bringing total planned launches over the next four years to 37 msf (Rs 114,500 crore).

    Agarwal and Lalchandani are optimistic about the company driven by strong sectoral tailwinds, an extensive launch pipeline, and expansion of its annuity portfolio. They expect a CAGR of 9.1% in revenue and 15.3% in net profit over FY25-27.

    2. Sumitomo Chemical India:

    Anand Rathi maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this agrochemicals company with a target price of Rs 630, indicating an upside of 20.2%. The company’s revenue grew 18.4% YoY to Rs 642 crore in Q3FY25, largely driven by a 54% increase in exports. Analyst Himanshu Binani points out that stable raw material prices, liquidation of high-cost stocks from previous quarters and a better product mix led to a 240 bps YoY rise in gross margin.

    Sumitomo Chemical’s management highlighted that the domestic rainfall patterns (with more rain and uneven distribution) and disrupted spraying activities impacted offtake in Q3. However, for the rabi season in Q4, better soil moisture and higher reservoir levels offer a positive outlook. The company is focusing on improving collections and maintaining receivable days at 93, similar to last year. Its payable days increased from 78 to 89 during Q3. Binani expects the company to achieve revenue and net profit CAGR of 18% and 21%, respectively, over FY25-27.

    3. Ami Organics:

    KR Choksey upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 2,613. The stock has limited upside left, with just 0.7% remaining, as it hit a 20% upper circuit on January 29 after announcing its Q3 results. It has surged 29.2% in the last six sessions following the management’s upward revision of its FY25 revenue growth forecast to 35% from 30%.

    In Q3FY25, the company’s revenue grew 65.2% YoY to Rs 275 crore, driven by an 86% increase in the advanced intermediates segment. Gross margins improved by 333 bps to 46.2%, thanks to a shift to higher-value pharma intermediates and contract development and manufacturing organisation (CDMO) products.

    Ami Organics’ capex for 9MFY25 stood at Rs 118 crore, mainly directed towards the Ankleshwar site, as well as solar and electrolyte additive projects. The company is ramping up utilisation at Ankleshwar. Analyst Dipak Saha highlights that the Ankleshwar facility has helped optimise costs through better production efficiency and savings from solar power, boosting margins. Additionally, the company plans to develop a 4,000 metric tonne capacity for electronic additives, which is expected to impact revenue and margins.

    Saha expects revenue to grow at a 28.7% CAGR and net profit at a 54.2% CAGR over FY25-FY27.

    4. Westlife Foodworld:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this restaurants chain with a target price of Rs 870. The stock has met its target post-budget by rising 20%, driven by expectations of increased footfalls and dining out due to income tax relief and higher disposable income.

    Westlife Foodworld added 15 new stores in Q3FY25, bringing its total to 421 restaurants across 67 cities by December 2024. The company is focusing on expanding its presence in south India, along with smaller towns, and enhancing drive-thru options. It aims to open 45-50 new stores annually.

    Analysts Preeyam Tolia and Suhanee Shome said, “We believe that the strategic initiatives outlined in Vision 2027 to drive the company’s growth trajectory remain intact, such as expanding the fast-growing categories and targeting 580-630 store openings by CY27.”

    During Q3FY25, Westlife’s revenue grew by around 9% YoY, with same-store sales growth (SSSG) increasing by 2.8% YoY, driven by higher footfalls and consistent spending per customer. Tolia and Shome are optimistic about the long-term prospects for the quick service restaurant (QSR) industry, supported by rising disposable income and a growing dining-out culture. They expect Westlife’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 16% over FY25-27.

    5. Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC:

    Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this asset management company with a target price of Rs 850, indicating an upside potential of 24.8%. The company reported a net profit growth of 7.2% YoY to Rs 224.5 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue rose 30.4% YoY to Rs 445.1 crore, driven by an increase in quarterly average assets under management (QAAUM).

    Analysts Prayesh Jain, Nitin Aggarwal, Muskan Chopra and Kartikeya Mohata note that systematic investment plan (SIP) inflows climbed 38% YoY to Rs 1,380 crore, supported by a nearly threefold growth in new SIP registrations to 670,000. About 95% of SIPs have a tenure of over five years, and 89% exceed ten years. They mention that in the coming quarter, the company plans to aggressively promote its new Global Blue Chip fund through GIFT City. 

    Jain, Aggarwal, Chopra, and Mohata say yields will improve slightly, mainly in the debt segment, due to higher expense ratios in some schemes. They believe the company's profitability will grow from its expanding alternate business, and a shift toward longer-duration debt funds. They expect a CAGR of 14.7% in average assets under management (AAUM) and 13.5% in net profit over FY25-27.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks with Rising Momentum …
    02 Feb 2025

    Stocks with Rising Momentum Score and Price Above First Support

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    The Baseline
    01 Feb 2025
    Budget 2025: Huge income tax relief, custom duty cuts, rural economy boost

    Budget 2025: Huge income tax relief, custom duty cuts, rural economy boost

    • A pretty big announcement: Sitharaman says no tax on income up to 12 lakh rupees per annum. Woo!
    • Insurance has got a boost from Sitharaman's announcement of 100% foreign ownership for some firms.
    • Hardware tech players are the biggest sector gainers so far, thanks to custom duty cuts in key components.
    • A boost for India's electronic assembly plants that have been so much in the news the past year. Basic customs duty reduction across electronic products. Dixon Technologies, a key player here, is rising.
    • A much needed boost for trade: India’s model bilateral investment treaty will be updated and revamped, Sitharaman says. 
    • Twitter is talking about the Budget's Bihar focus. 

    #Bihar#Budget2025pic.twitter.com/tQDnSsTIDe

    — Finance Memes (@Qid_Memez) February 1, 2025
    • Indian cities are in crisis, with overwhelmed infrastructure, half-completed flyovers and traffic snarls. Sitharaman announces the 1 trillion rupee “Urban Challenge Fund” for municipalities who come up with projects and financing. They can get 25% federal support. But that is a very small fix in the ongoing problems for cities in governance and finance access.
    • The "Deepseek Effect": Centre of excellence in Artificial Intelligence will be set up for Rs 100 crore. However, qualified talent access across key areas like AI and aviation is a concern. 
    • Air travel in focus: Sitharaman announces that 120 new destinations will be connected for air travel. This is in the midst of a boom in flight travel in the last five years across India, as airport building has surged. New airports will connect 40 million additional passengers in the next 10 years.
    • Textile stocks are rising after Sitharaman announces five year mission for cotton farmers. 
    • An announcement for gig workers at Swiggy, Blinkit, etc: They will get health coverage from the government. 
    • Joke circulating on whatsapp groups yesterday. Income tax announcements are awaited.
    • It's Adani and Ambani who are regularly present in Indian business news, but Sitharaman announces a boost for medium and small businesses. There are over 1 crore MSMEs employing 7.5 crore people. She says, "For micro and small enterprises, credit cover will be increased from Rs 5 crore to Rs 10 crore. For startups, it will be increased to Rs 10 crore. For well-run exporter MSME, term loans of Rs 20 crore will be granted".
    • Amara Raja Energy was already seeing some momentum at market open. The stock is rising as Sitharaman announces focus on EV batteries and solar. 
    • Sitharaman announces loans for 500,000 female entrepreneurs from so-called backward classes. This is expected to drive momentum for self-help groups and smaller entrepreneurs,
    • Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Budget is focusing on farmers and the rural economy, suggesting that the government is focused on bringing down food inflation and addressing rural distress. Her announcements include: 
      • Nafed and NCCF to drive procurement of pulses over the next four years
      • PM Dhan Dhyan Krishi Yojan to benefit, Sitharaman says, over 1.7 crore farmers
      • Agriculture stocks are surging in response
    1
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    The Baseline
    31 Jan 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 31, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 31, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. TVS Motor Company:

    Thistwo-wheeler manufacturer has surged around 7% in the past week after announcing its Q3 results, driven by a 57% YoY rise in electric scooter sales. Cost control measures and stable raw materials prices helped the EBITDA margin improve by 70 bps YoY to a new high of 11.9%.

    TVS reported an operating revenue growth of 10.3% YoY to Rs 9,097 crore in Q3, with net profit growth of 4.2% YoY to Rs 566 crore. While revenue was in line withForecaster estimates, net profit missed by 13%. Besides TVS Credit, rising losses from its subsidiaries, such as Norton Motorcycles and an e-bicycle company, contributed to the shortfall. A flat average selling price of around Rs 75,000, due to minimal price hikes during Q3, also impacted profitability.

    TVSrecorded a 10.1% increase in overall sales on a YoY basis, reaching 12.1 lakh units in Q3, driven by a 22% rise in scooter sales. This surge was supported by the rising market share of scooters (both ICE & electric) in the two-wheeler category, which increased to 40% from 31% a year ago.

    Regarding the demand outlook, CEO K N Radhakrishnansays, “This is the first year I have seen rural (demand) matching or slightly ahead of urban, which is very positive news.” He expects volumes of entry-level 125cc motorcycles and mopeds to improve, driven by a recovery in rural demand supported by high reservoir levels and expectations of a good monsoon this year.

    Axis Securitiesmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating on TVS as sales volume outperformed that of the industry in Q3. The brokerage expects volumes to rise by 13% in FY25, driven by a rural demand recovery and an expanded international presence. It also anticipates the margin to improve as the company recognises PLI benefits from Q4.

    2. Suzlon Energy:

    This heavy electrical equipment hit its 5% upper circuit for three consecutive sessions following the announcement of its Q3FY25 results on January 29. The company’s revenue surged 90.7% YoY to Rs 2,969 crore, driven by higher sales from the WTG (wind turbine generators) and foundry & forging segments. EBITDA margin rose by 90 bps to 16.8% in Q3, while net profit grew 90% to Rs 387 crore. Both revenue and net profit surpassed Trendlyne Forecaster estimates.

    As of January 2024, Suzlon’s order book stood at 5.5 GW. The WTG segment, which contributes the majority of revenue, saw its contribution margin rise by 330 bps YoY to 22.7% in 9MFY25. JP Chalasani, the Group CEO, said, “We’ve always maintained our contribution margin in the high teens. For FY25 and beyond, we expect a steady consolidated margin of slightly over 20%.”

    The company has upgraded its Nacelle manufacturing facilities in Daman and Puducherry, increasing its annual production capacity by 45.2% to 4.5 GW. To expand operations further, it is adding two more production lines at its Ratlam and Jaisalmer facilities. Chalasani expects an annual capex of over Rs 350 crore in the next 2-3 years. 

    Suzlon’s Vice-Chairman and Co-Founder, Girish Tanti, shared his expectations for Budget 2025, emphasising the need for “policy alignment” between wind and solar energy to support industry growth while keeping tariff costs low. He projects India’s wind energy capacity additions at 3.5-4 GW this year, with further growth expected at a CAGR of 42%, reaching 10 GW by FY28.

    Post results, Nuvama upgraded its rating to ‘Buy’ as it expects the firm’s installed capacity to increase by 4.2% to 1.5 GW. It also highlighted the positive impact of Suzlon's acquisition of Renom Energy Services as a key factor driving the company's performance.

    3. United Spirits:

    This breweries & distilleries company has declined by 5.1% over the past week following its Q3FY25 results announcement. The company’s revenue grew 14.4% YoY to Rs 3,433 crore for the quarter but missed Trendlyne's Forecaster estimates by 1.2%. Net profit declined 4.3% YoY to Rs 335 crore due to higher excise duty, employee benefits and depreciation expenses, as well as a Rs 65 crore exceptional charge related to severance costs for a closed unit. EBITDA margins stood at 17.1% during the quarter.

    During the quarter, revenue growth was led by robust consumer demand in the peak festive season and a rapid scale-up in Andhra Pradesh. The company resumed sales in Andhra Pradesh in Q3 after five years, as the state's new liquor policy permitted private retailers to sell spirits. Andhra Pradesh contributed 6.1% to overall revenue in Q3. Hina Nagarajan, the MD and CEO, said, “We anticipate stable demand going forward and remain cautiously optimistic on the demand environment in the short term.” 

    Meanwhile, the Prestige & Above (P&A) segment (which constitutes 90% of the revenue mix) was up 16% YoY, while the Popular segment grew by 10% YoY. 

    The management reiterated its guidance for double-digit revenue growth for its prestige products in FY25, driven by Andhra Pradesh's market recovery and ongoing innovation across the portfolio. United Spirits expanded its portfolio with the launch of X Series, under McDowell's brand, in five key markets, including Maharashtra, Goa, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. The X Series operates in the upper prestige price segment and consists of a premium range of Vodka, Rum, and Gin (priced above Rs 1,000/750 ml). 

    Following the company’s results, Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Neutral’ rating as it expects liquor policies in many states to become more favourable, driving consumer upgrades and increased consumption frequency. It believes United Spirits is well-positioned to capitalise on this large opportunity. Motilal Oswal expects the company’s EBITDA margins to sustain between 17-17.5%.

    4. Laurus Labs:

    This pharmaceutical company rose by 2% on January 24th after announcing its Q3FY25 results. During the quarter, its net profit rose 298.9% YoY to Rs 92.3 crore due to strong 89% YoY growth in Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) sales. Revenue was up 18.9% YoY at Rs 1,424.5 crore. The company’s revenue beat Forecaster estimates by 7.7%, while net profit beat estimates by 43.1%. It appears on screener for stocks with strong momentum.

    The company witnessed strong growth in Q3 on the back of robust demand in its CDMO business. Satyanarayana Chava, Founder & CEO, added, “The CDMO division achieved its highest quarterly sales in the last 8 quarters, nearing Rs 400 crore. Over the first 9 months, the division saw a 33% growth, driven by a ramp up in new assets. The portfolio is shifting towards high-value complex small molecules, and we maintain a positive outlook for the small molecule CDMO industry. We remain committed to our 2025 growth targets, backed by scheduled project deliveries in Q4.”

    On future guidance, Mr. Chava said, "We remain confident in our commitment from the last call to achieve an EBITDA close to 20% for FY25 from the current level of 16.6%, as the growth prospects for Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) are expected to improve, driven by new products."

    The company has entered into a definitive agreement to secure Rs 120 crore in equity investment from Eight Roads Ventures and F-Prime Capital. Additionally, it is investing Rs 40 crore in the joint venture, which is developing a 400KL fermentation facility in Vizag, set to be completed by the end of CY26.

    Motilal Oswal maintains a 'Buy' rating on Laurus Labs as it expects the company’s CDMO business to grow at a 26% CAGR over FY25-27, reaching Rs 2,420 crore, and the non-Antiretroviral (ARV) segment sales to grow at a 29% CAGR over FY25-27, reaching Rs 2,260 crore. The brokerage notes that after six quarters of earnings decline, the company has shown strong financial improvement, estimating a robust 71% earnings CAGR over FY25-27.

    5. Macrotech Developers:

    Thisrealty company rose 11.3% over the past week following the announcement of its Q3results. Its net profit surged 87.6% YoY to Rs 944.4 crore, helped by a tax refund of Rs 228.3 crore, beating forecaster estimates by 47.1%. Revenue grew 40.1% YoY to Rs 4,146.6 crore, driven by an improvement in presales and collections. 

    Macrotech Developers (Lodha)achieved quarterly pre-sales of Rs 4,510 crore, a 32% YoY growth, while collections jumped 66% YoY to Rs 4,290 crore. In Q3FY25, the companylaunched its fifth project in Bangalore with a Gross Development Value (GDV) of Rs 2,800 crore. It also introduced 2.7 million square feet (msf) of space in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and Pune. 

    Abhishek Lodha, MD & CEO of Macrotech Developerssaid, “We have now achieved 90% of our full year target for business development, and in spite of heavy investments in land and business development, our debt has come down by over 15%. At the end of this fiscal year, we expect to meet the presales target of Rs 17,500 crore.” Lodhaaims to generate Rs 500 crore in annual rental income by FY26 and Rs 1,500 crore by FY31.

    For the coming quarter, the companyplans to launch 4.3 msf with a GDV of Rs 7,520 crore across locations such as Alibaug, Vikhroli, Palava, Pune, Bangalore, along with new phases of existing projects in the eastern suburbs of MMR. They are expanding their portfolio beyond entry-level and mid-income housing to include luxury and premium residences. However, the focus will remain on mid-income housing that comprises 60% of their sales.

    Motilal Oswalmaintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this stock with a target price of Rs 1,568. The brokerage expects pre-sales to grow at a 21% CAGR over FY25-26. They estimate revenue of Rs 4,270 crore, EBITDA of Rs 890 crore, and net profit of Rs 330 crore for Q4FY25, driven by upcoming launches and inventory with a ~Rs 7,520 crore GDV.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    30 Jan 2025
    RBI tries to not drop the icecream | Screener: Stocks with FIIs and MFs increasing shareholding

    RBI tries to not drop the icecream | Screener: Stocks with FIIs and MFs increasing shareholding

    By Swapnil Karkare

    India's current Central Bank problem is a bit like the challenge Indian kids face. Indian parents want you to be all three things at once - super smart, good-looking, and socially savvy, ready to jump up and make conversation when neighbour aunty drops in.

    This trinity of skills is of course, near-impossible to achieve (although said parents will always claim that some distant cousin possesses all three).

    Central banks face a similar problem. They have three goals —keep the currency stable, allow free flow of money across borders, and set interest rates to suit the country’s needs. But they can’t achieve all three at once. Economists call this the ‘impossible trinity.’

    India's RBI has historically focused on free money flows and controlling interest rates, while not trying to stabilize the rupee. But in recent years under Shaktikanta Das, it changed course, and worked hard to keep the rupee’s value stable.

    To do this, the central bank sold dollars and bought rupees, which reduced rupee availabilty and artificially boosted its value. As a result, money flow tightened, even as GDP growth slowed.

    Now, it looks like the RBI is shifting focus back to rupee liquidity, instead of controlling the currency's value. It announced this week that it will inject Rs. 600 billion ($18 billion) into the economy to address the worst cash crunch in a decade.

    Like Indian kids, the RBI must make some hard choices. And it has apparently decided to stop trying to control the value of the rupee, and let it depreciate.

    In this week's Analyticks:

    • A tightrope walk for RBI: Under the new RBI governor, the Central Bank is making different choices
    • Screener: Stocks where foreign investors and mutual funds have increased their stake

    A strong dollar is a challenge for emerging markets

    The US economy post-Covid has been stronger than other developed markets, with solid economic growth and low unemployment.But its interest rates have stayed high due to inflation.

    High rates have drawn global investors, who are piling money into US assets. The dollar as a result has strengthened steadily in the last few years.

    A strong dollar has been tough on emerging markets

    Over the past year, emerging market (EM) currencies took a huge hit. The Egyptian Pound lost more than half its value over the last year. Latin American countries such as Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil saw their currencies depreciate 18-30%, while Polish, Thai and Vietnamese currencies depreciated the least (<2%). Following Trump's victory, EM currencies fell by an average of 2-4%.

    When currencies depreciate, imports such as fuel, get expensive, straining budgets. As these countries slip into the red, foreign investors lose confidence and start selling their investments. This further weakens these currencies.

    The RBI kept battling a strong dollar

    Former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian, Josh Felman, and Abhishek Anand say that the RBI changed how it managed the rupee in the last two years. The data for the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) Index, a measure of the rupee’s intrinsic value, showed that before 2022, the rupee moved a lot due to events like the global financial crisis (2008), the taper tantrum (2013), and crises in Turkey and the IL&FS default (2018).

    But since 2022, the rupee became very stable. They compare this stability to the flat cricket pitch at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. This suggests that the RBI has kept the rupee steady, almost pegging it to the US dollar.

    In 2025, 2013 still haunts policymakers

    Whenever EM currencies take a hit, the scars of the 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum’ resurface for policymakers.

    After the 2008 global financial crisis, the US Fed started buying government and corporate bonds through a program called quantitative easing (QE). The objective was simple: By buying bonds, money would flow into the system and lower interest rates.

    In May 2013, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that the Fed might reduce its bond purchases sooner than expected due to improving economic conditions. This meant that the dollar would likely strengthen, and US interest rates would rise.

    The dollar didn't surge, but EM currencies depreciated sharply. Countries like Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey, known at the time as the ‘Fragile Five’, saw their currencies drop by over 10% in just four months. The Fragile Five had high current account deficits (spending more on imports than they earned from exports) and heavy reliance on foreign investments.

    The Indian rupee was hit the hardest, depreciating by 22%, worsening the current account deficit, pushing inflation to double digits, and slowing economic growth. 

    But EMs, including India, took this as a wake-up call. Today, they are better prepared, as highlighted by Nomura.


    Emerging Markets rise to the dollar challenge

    The past few months have been challenging for many EM central banks, but they've acted quickly. Indonesia and Malaysia for example, asked commodity and state firms to bring overseas earnings back into their countries to boost their currencies. South Korea sold won debt for the first time in 21 years to defend its currency and increase forex reserves. China limited yuan lending in Hong Kong to support its value. Brazil's central bank intervened by selling $21.57 billion in the spot market in December, along with currency swaps and spot auctions. It's hard to say for sure, but there's hope that these measures could help steady these economies.

    And what is the RBI doing?

    Back home, RBI sold a record $81 billion from its reserves since October 2024 as it worked to keep the value of the Indian rupee up. India’s forex reserves stood at $705 billion on September 27, but is now down to $624 billion.

    Since December, the RBI started course-correcting. To address the rising cash crunch in the economy, it cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to allow banks to lend more, and has conducted variable rate repo (VRR) auctions so that banks can borrow more funds from the RBI.

    These measures will pour more money into the system. And when there’s more cash in the system, banks are more willing to offer loans at lower rates. Analysts also believe that this liquidity push means that RBI is getting ready to cut the interest rate.

    2025 is a different story from 2013

    Now that RBI has stopped defending the rupee, the market will likely decide the rupee's value. The rupee could fall as far as 90-95 against the dollar, according to analysts.

    While a falling rupee may make imports more expensive and raise inflation, its a challenge the central bank can handle. Fortunately, India is far healthier in 2025 compared to 2013.


    Screener: Stocks where foreign investors and mutual funds have increased their stake

    FIIs and MFs increase their holdings in banks and NBFCs

    As the shareholding data for Q3FY25 comes in, we look at stocks where foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and mutual funds (MFs) bought the most stakes. This screener shows stocks with the highest FII and MF holding increases in the latest quarter. 

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the banking, capital markets, IT consulting & software, and auto parts & equipment industries. Major stocks featured in the screener are Home First Finance, IDFC First Bank, GE Vernova T&D India, PNB Housing Finance, BSE, Godrej Properties, DOMS Industries, and Amber Enterprises. 

    Home First Finance features in the screener with the highest QoQ growth of 12.3 percentage points in FII holding in Q3FY25, while its MF holding increased by 4.9 percentage points QoQ. This comes after the housing finance company’s promoters, Aether (Mauritius) and True North Fund V LLP, sold a combined 9% stake in the company through the open market in December 2024. Home First's stock price has declined 1.2% over the past year. 

    Notable FIIs that bought the sold shares are Smallcap World Fund Inc (bought a 2.9% stake), Government Pension Fund Global (bought a 2.6% stake), and Goldman Sachs Funds - Goldman Sachs India Equity (bought a 1% stake). The largest MF buyers include Hdfc Mutual Fund - Hdfc Banking And Financial Serv (bought a 4.1% stake).

    GE Vernova T&D India also appears in the screener after FIIs and MFs increased their stake in the company by 5.2 percentage points QoQ and 2.7 percentage points QoQ, respectively in Q3FY25. This industrial machinery stock’s promoters sold an 8.4% stake through an offer for sale (OFS) worth Rs 3,324.9 crore at a floor price of Rs 1,550 per share. This stake sale was likely a profit booking by the promoters after its stock price surged by 152.8% over the past year.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    28 Jan 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 28, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 28, 2025

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Persistent Systems:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this IT consulting firm with a target price of Rs 7,600. This indicates an upside potential of 28.6%. In Q3FY25, the company reported a net profit growth of 14.8% QoQ to Rs 373 crore. Revenue rose 5.5% QoQ to Rs 3,104.9 crore, led by improvements in the banking, financial services & insurance (BFSI), healthcare & life sciences, and hi-tech segments. 

    Analysts Abhishek Pathak, Keval Bhagat, and Tushar Dhonde highlight that the company targets a revenue of $2 billion (~Rs 17,302 crore) by FY27 and $5 billion (~Rs 43,255 crore) by FY31. To achieve this, it plans to strengthen relationships with its top 100 clients, diversify into new areas like private equity, and develop 12-15 growth engines within three main verticals.

    Pathak, Bhagat, and Dhonde expect a growth of 24.2% YoY in revenue, 27.3% YoY in EBIT, and 22.9% YoY in net profit for Q4FY25, with BFSI and Hi-Tech to be the fastest-growing sectors. They also expect a CAGR of 20.1% in sales and 23.4% in net profit over FY25-27.

    2. V2 Retail:

    Edelweiss maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this department stores company with a target price of Rs 2,230. This indicates an upside potential of 25%. In Q3FY25 the company’s net profit rose 1.2X YoY to Rs 51.2 crore. Revenue grew 58.1% YoY to Rs 590.9 crore, driven by higher same-store sales growth and footprint expansion.

    The company added 21 new outlets in the quarter, bringing its total store count to 160 as of Q3. Its retail footprint now covers approximately 17.2 lakh sq ft, a 51% YoY growth. Analyst Palash Kawale highlights that the management plans to open 20-25 more stores in Q4 which will take its FY25 store additions to around 70. He mentions that the company aims to be a national level value retail player in the next 4-5 years, with plans to add 100 stores in FY26 and focusing 80% of these additions in existing states.

    Kawale expects a CAGR of 44.1% in revenue, 54.3% in revenue and 82.1% in net profit over FY25-27 on aggressive store additions, reaching 282 stores by FY27.

    3. Polycab India:

    BOB Capital Markets upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this electrical equipment company with a target price of Rs 8,090. This indicates an upside potential of 42.6%. In Q3FY25 its net profit grew by 10.8% YoY to Rs 457.6 crore. Revenue rose 20.4% YoY to Rs 5,226.1 crore, driven by growth in wires & cables, and fast-moving electrical goods (FMEG). 

    Analyst Arshia Khosla points out that the international business saw a 62% YoY growth, contributing 8.3% to the company’s overall revenue. He notes that the company has introduced project Spring, which sets targets for FY30. These include growing its wires and cables business 1.5X faster than the industry and achieving domestic EBITDA margins of 11-13%. Additionally, it aims to expand international business share to 10% of total sales, helped by capital expenditure of Rs 6,000-8,000 crore over five years.

    Khosla expects revenue to grow at a CAGR of 18.2% and net profit at 22.6% from FY25-27. The stock is in the PE Sell Zone, currently trading above its historical PE.

    4. Karur Vysya Bank:

    Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 325, indicating a potential upside of 44.5%. In Q3FY25, Karur Vysya Bank (KVB) reported a credit growth of 14.6% YoY, driven by growth across most segments. However, its corporate loan book declined by ~5% due to planned reductions in low-yielding loans. Net interest margin (NIM) fell by 29 bps to 4%, mainly due to slower growth in high-yield segments like personal loans (PL), vehicle finance (VF), and microfinance (MFI), along with higher cost of funds (CoF).

    KVB’s gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio improved by 75 bps YoY to 0.8%, thanks to lower gross slippages, higher write-offs, and better recoveries. Analysts Anand Dama, Nikhil Vaishnav, and Kunaal N highlighted that the bank’s MFI book of Rs 350 crore is mostly in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, and has not seen any significant decline in quality. Additionally, the bank is setting aside funds to manage any potential risks to its assets, with a contingency buffer of Rs 100 crore and floating provisions of Rs 75 crore.

    KVB is in the PE Buy Zone, currently trading below its historical PE. Dama, Vaishnav, and Kunaal expect the bank to maintain a return on assets (RoA) of 1.7% and a return on equity (RoE) of 17-18% over FY25-27.

    5. Dalmia Bharat:

    Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this cement products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 2,000. This indicates a potential upside of 10.3%. The company's performance in Q3FY25 was affected by a 2% YoY decline in volume, leading to a 540 bps drop in its EBITDA margin. 

    However, the management expects Dalmia’s cement grinding capacity to increase to 49.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by FY25, up from the current 46.6, which should support volume growth. Analysts Uttam Srimal and Shikha Doshi say, “We expect the company to achieve a 7.5% CAGR in volume growth over FY25-26.”

    Dalmia Bharat highlighted that cement prices remained steady in Q3, with its management expecting a slight hike in Q4FY25. However, they ruled out any significant price increases due to heightened competition. To address performance declines, the company aims to reduce costs by Rs 150-200 per tonne over the next two years by improving operating efficiency.

    Srimal and Doshi are optimistic about strong demand from infrastructure development, driven by large-scale projects and affordable housing initiatives. They project revenue to grow at a CAGR of 5% and net profit at 13% over FY25-26.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here

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