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1. IDFC First Bank:

BOB Capital Markets maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a higher target price of Rs 79, an upside of 20.6%. In Q4FY25, the bank’s net interest margins (NIMs) dropped 58 basis points YoY to 6%, because of a decline in its microfinance (MFI) loan portfolio by 28%. MFI loans now make up just 4% of the bank’s total loan book, compared to 6.6% a year ago. The company's management also expects a slight impact on NIMs in FY26 due to possible interest rate cuts.

On April 17, IDFC Bank approved a preferential equity capital raise of Rs 7,500 crore by issuing compulsorily convertible preference shares (CCPS) at Rs 60 per share. Analysts Niraj Jalan and Vijiya Rao believe this will boost the bank’s core capital ratio (which shows how well a bank can absorb losses) to 16.5%, up from 13.2% as of March 2025. This added capital is expected to support future growth and improve cost efficiency.

Jalan and Rao believe that improved operating efficiency and asset quality will lift the return on assets (RoA) to 0.9–1.3% by FY26–27, from 0.5% in FY25.

2. Eternal (Zomato):

Emkay Global initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this food delivery company with a target price of Rs 290, indicating a potential upside of 24.6% %. In Q4FY25, the company’s revenue rose 63.8% YoY to Rs 58,330 crore, owing to improvements in its quick commerce (QC) and Hyperpure segments.

Eternal's QC unit Blinkit's Gross Order Value (GOV) grew 20% QoQ. However, Blinkit’s EBITDA margin dropped by 60 bps to -1.9% QoQ in Q4, driven by higher costs from new store openings and customer acquisition.

Analysts highlight that management is prioritizing market share and growth over immediate profits due to heightened competition. Quick Commerce has become crowded with both new startups and established players like BigBasket fighting for market share. They expect the stock price to remain range-bound in the near term due to increased competitive intensity in QC and planned investments in the going-out (dining out, events, and ticketing) business.

Analysts note that in Q4, the company added 294 dark stores, bringing its total to 1,301. They highlight that management plans to open 2,000 dark stores by December 2025, and maintain an EBITDA margin of 4–5% of GOV in quick commerce. Analysts also project Eternal’s EBITDA margin to improve to 7.5% by FY27, up from 3.1% in FY25.

3. Dalmia Bharat:

Sharekhan retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this cement manufacturer with a target price of Rs 2,300, indicating an upside potential of 17.8%. The company’s Q4FY25 revenue fell 5% YoY to Rs 4,091 crore due to lower cement volumes. But net profit rose 38% to Rs 435 crore, helped by reduced fuel costs and a higher share of renewable energy.

The company’s management aims to reduce the cost of cement manufacturing to an EBITDA/ tonne of Rs 150–200 over the next two years, down from the current Rs 820. They plan to achieve half of this target by FY26 through lower input costs and a doubling of renewable power capacity to 595 MW. Analysts are optimistic that the company will balance volume growth and profitability once it reduces manufacturing costs.

In FY25, Dalmia Bharat expanded its cement capacity by 2.9 metric tonnes (mt), bringing the total to 49.5 mt. It plans to invest Rs 3,520 crore to establish a clinker unit (partially processed cement unit) and a 6 mt grinding unit in Karnataka and Maharashtra. Analysts expect cement volumes to grow 7–8% in FY26, driven by increased government infrastructure spending. They also expect the company to receive Rs 400 crore in subsidies for setting up cement plants in Northeast India.

4. Bandhan Bank:

Anand Rathi reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 207, indicating an upside of 31.5%. In Q4FY25, Bandhan Bank's slippages (bad loans) were up 8% QoQ to Rs 1,750 crore, or 5.5% of its total loans. Analysts Yuvraj Choudhary, Kaitav Shah and Subhanshi Rathi expect slippages to stay high for a few more quarters but ease later, as most of the older loans have already been recognised and new loan stress is limited. 

The bank has been dealing with stress in its emerging enterprises banking (EEB) loan book (loans to small and growing businesses) for the past 17 quarters. However, the analysts believe future stress will likely be lower than the industry average. In Q4, the bank’s collection efficiency in the EEB book was 97.8%, slightly up from 97.4% in Q3. Choudhary, Shah, and Rathi expect gross NPAs to drop below 4% by FY26, from 4.7% during the quarter.

5. Ambuja Cement:

Axis Direct initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this cement manufacturer with a target price of Rs 655, indicating an upside potential of 22.4%. Analysts Uttam Srimal and Shikha Doshi note that the company is targeting a cement capacity of 140 MTPA by FY28, up from its current capacity of 100 MTPA. They expect volume and revenue to grow at a CAGR of 11% and 10%, respectively, over FY25–FY27.

Shrimal and Doshi write that the company has reduced costs by Rs 150 per tonne through operational improvements. They highlight that the management aims to achieve additional savings of Rs 300–350 per tonne by FY28 by lowering logistics costs, increasing the use of renewable energy, and expanding the share of blended cement.

Management is aiming to optimize cost savings and increase operational efficiency by consolidating their acquired assets—Penna, Sanghi, and Orient Cements—across the companies. Analysts expect that synergies between the companies will improve EBITDA margins to 21% by FY27, up from 17% in FY25.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

1. TVS Motor Company:

This two-wheeler manufacturer rose 1.6% on May 2 after reporting a 16% YoY increase in total sales for April 2025. The company sold 3.8 lakh vehicles during the month, driven by a 59% jump in electric vehicle (EV) sales. Exports grew 45%, while three-wheeler sales rose 50% YoY.

In Q4FY25, TVS Motor's electric scooter sales rose 55% YoY. The company’s revenue jumped 17.5%, supported by a 16% rise in volumes to 12.2 lakh units. Net profit saw an impressive spike of 75% during the quarter. Both revenue and net profit beat Trendlyne Forecaster estimates.

The company benefited from raw material costs coming down to about 69.3% of sales, compared to 72.8% in Q4FY24. It reported an EBITDA margin of 14% in Q4, which includes the full-year PLI benefit booked during the quarter. Export growth was strong in Latin America and Asia, while African markets were slower due to inflation and currency issues. TVS Motor’s overall market share increased by 160 bps YoY to 20.4%.

The company’s investments rose to around Rs 4,000 crore in FY25, up from Rs 2,450 crore in FY24. Of this, about Rs 500 crore went to TVS Credit Services, its non-banking finance subsidiary, which added over 40 lakh new customers during the year, taking the total to 1.9 crore. A significant portion also went to Norton, its premium motorcycle brand, where new product launches are expected by Q4FY26.

Regarding the demand outlook, CEO K N Radhakrishnan said that the company expects domestic two-wheeler demand in FY26 to remain steady, similar to FY25, driven by the ongoing need for vehicle replacements. He added, “A 50 bps cut in the repo rate, leading to lower EMIs, more wedding dates, and a normal monsoon will drive positive sentiment. May and June are expected to see a boost due to the wedding season.”

Post results, Anand Rathi has assigned a ‘Buy’ rating. The brokerage expects 7% CAGR in domestic 2W volumes from FY25-27, driven by rising EV adoption, replacement demand, and easy access to finance. They believe investments in TVS Credit Services, Norton, e-cycles, and TVS Digital will materialize over the next 1-2 years.

2. CEAT:

This tyre manufacturer surged 9.5% over the past week following the announcement of its annual result. In Q4, the company reported 14.4% YoY revenue growth, surpassing Forecaster estimates by 3%, driven by both volume and price increases. However, net profit came 8% lower compared to the same period last year and missed estimates by 12% due to elevated rubber prices.

CEAT gets the majority of its revenue from the replacement market, while 28% comes from OEMs and 19% from exports. Within its portfolio, tyres for trucks, buses, and two- and three-wheelers account for 60% of total revenue. CEO Arnab Banerjee expects falling crude prices to help offset the impact of high rubber costs and projects gross margins to improve to over 40%, up from 37.5% in Q4.

Banerjee also highlighted that rural demand outpaced urban by 4–5% in Q4, a trend he expects to continue in the current quarter. Over the long term, the company anticipates the domestic tyre industry to grow at a CAGR of 6–7%, while exports are projected to grow at 10–11%.

Integration of Camso, an off-road tyre and tracks company that CEAT acquired from Michelin in December last year, is on track for completion by Q2FY26. This move is likely to increase export revenue to 25%, up from the current 19%. Notably, about 30% of Camso’s exports to the US originate from Sri Lanka, which faces a 44% tariff. However, management notes that tyre tracks, which constitute nearly 50% of US-bound exports, attract only a 4% duty.

Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, viewing the replacement segment as the key growth driver. Analysts at Motilal believe that CEAT’s focus on 2W, passenger car and off-road tyre segments will boost margins and lower its dependence on the truck segment.

3. Maruti Suzuki India:

This car manufacturer fell 1.7% on April 25 following the announcement of its Q4FY25 results. Maruti Suzuki India’s net profit declined 1% YoY to Rs 3,911.1 crore, missing Forecaster estimates by 3.8%. The dip in profit was driven by higher discounts on small cars, increased marketing expenses, and costs related to the launch of its first electric vehicle, the e-Vitara SUV.

During the quarter, the operating margin contracted 210 bps to 8.7%. This was due to higher overheads, increased steel costs and start-up expenses for the new Kharkhoda plant, which began commercial production in March 2025. The Kharkhoda plant in Haryana adds 2.5 lakh units to Maruti's annual production capacity, bringing the total to 26 lakh units. The plant has the potential to scale annual capacity up to 10 lakh units.

Maruti Suzuki’s revenue grew 6.4% YoY to Rs 40,920.1 crore, aided by a 2.8% increase in domestic sales volume, totalling 5.2 lakh units. Segment-wise, the compact segment (Baleno, Swift, WagonR) grew 1.9% YoY, while the mini segment (Alto, S-Presso) declined 14.9% YoY. The mid-size segment (Ciaz) saw growth of 77.2% YoY.

Looking ahead, the company expects strong export momentum, targeting at least 20% YoY growth in exports for FY26, supported by demand in Latin America and Africa. Maruti Suzuki currently constitutes nearly 43% of India's total vehicle exports.

One of the key growth drivers for exports for FY26 is expected to be the e-Vitara. Rahul Bharti, Chief Investor Relations Officer, said, “We expect to do a volume of about 70,000 units annually of e-Vitara in FY26, and a large part of it will come from exports.” 

Commenting on the future market outlook, Senior Executive Officer of Marketing and Sales, Partho Banerjee, said, “The PV industry is expected to grow by around 1-2% and fundamentally, we are not expecting very high growth in the automotive industry.”

Post results, Motilal Oswal reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating, citing exports as a key growth driver. The brokerage expects the company’s export volumes to reach 7.5- 8 lakh units by FY31 and has given a target price of Rs 13,985.

4. Trent:

This department stores company declined by 4.8% after it announced its Q4FY25 & full year results on April 29. The company’s Q4FY25 net profit declined by 36% YoY to Rs 318.2 crore due to higher inventory & depreciation expenses. However, its revenue increased 27.2% YoY driven by strong performance in its fashion brand 'Zudio'. The stock appears in a screener for stocks which have given consistent high returns over 5 years.

The company beat the Trendlyne forecaster Q4FY25 revenue estimate by 4.1% and the net profit estimate by 7.3%. Driven by store optimization efforts that boosted EBITDA margins by 101 bps to 16% YoY, the company strategically grew its store network. They added a net of 10 Westside locations, reaching 248 in total, and significantly expanded their Zudio presence with 130 new stores, now totaling 765. This growth supports Trent’s strategy of deepening its reach in metro and Tier-1 cities while boosting performance in important micro markets.

Noel N Tata, Chairman of Trent, said, “Given business seasonality, real estate dynamics, and our inventory approach, full-year results better reflect performance across revenue, profitability, and expansion than any single quarter. Our fashion portfolio remains distinct through clear choices and discipline. In FY25, Zudio surpassed $1 billion in revenue. In the Star business, we’re leveraging Trent’s model, with own brands contributing over 70% of revenue. ”

Axis Securities has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on Trent, citing the company’s strong revenue growth despite macroeconomic challenges. The brokerage highlights that the recent stock price correction presents an attractive entry point for long-term investors. With structural tailwinds in organized retail and significant room for market share expansion, Trent is well-positioned to capitalize on the sector’s long-term growth. However, it has revised its target price downward to Rs 6,650, factoring in increased competitive intensity.

5. Persistent Systems:

This IT consulting & software company has risen 5.2% over the past week after its Q4FY25 net profit grew 6.1% QoQ to Rs 395.8 crore. Revenue increased 5% QoQ to Rs 3,260.5 crore owing to improvements in the banking, financial services & insurance (BFSI), healthcare & life services, and software, hi-tech & emerging industries segments. The stock features in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue over the past eight quarters.

The company’s revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively. North American, Indian, and European business also improved on the back of client wallet expansion and deeper penetration across existing accounts. Its highest contributing segment, software, hi-tech & emerging industries (contributing 40.9% of revenue), improved during the quarter, thanks to increased traction in product engineering mandates, platform modernisation, and AI-led productivity initiatives. 

The total contract value (TCV) of the company grew 15.6% YoY to $ 517.5 million (~ Rs 4,361.7 crore) on the back of new bookings of $ 329 million (~ Rs 2,773 crore) during the quarter. However, the TCV declined 12.9% QoQ due to the quarter being seasonally weak. Additionally, the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID) implemented cost rationalization initiatives, which impacted several provider and payer clients.

Speaking on the company’s aspirations, Sandeep Kalra, Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, states, “We target to reach $2 billion in annual revenues by FY27, with a longer-term goal of $5 billion by FY31. We are confident in achieving these targets through strategies tailored to both organic growth and potential acquisitions.”

Post results, KR Choksey upgrades Persistent Systems to a ‘Hold’ rating from ‘Reduce’, with a target price of Rs 5,324 per share. The brokerage is confident in the stock due to its strong Q4FY25 execution, a healthy deal pipeline, and platform-led operating leverage. However, \macro risks like geopolitical uncertainty, tariff overhang, and an elongated deal cycle are rising across the industry. The brokerage expects the firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 19.3% over FY25-27.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Indian stock market started the year on the back foot. Concerns over valuations amid muted earnings, and an unpredictable US President steering economic policy weighed on investor sentiment. Dr. V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said, “Stock markets dislike uncertainty, and uncertainty has been rising since Donald Trump was elected US president. The series of tariff announcements by Trump has impacted markets.”

The Nifty 50 fell 7.9% from the beginning of 2025 until 6 April. However, optimism over the US-India trade deal helped the index recover 10.8% from its low of 21,758.4 on 7 April, bringing the year-to-date or YTD gain to 2.5%.

The Nifty IT index, which tracks the performance of Indian IT companies, has fallen by 18% from its peak of 46,088 on December 13, 2024. 

The Nifty IT index heavyweights include Infosys with a weight of 27.6%, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) at 23.3%, HCL Technologies at 10.7%, Tech Mahindra at 9.4%, and Wipro at 7.7%. 

India's IT industry contributes 7.5% to the GDP and relies heavily on Western markets. The US and Europe account for 54% and 31% of software exports. Any turmoil in these regions directly affects Indian IT. Currently, the US has not imposed tariffs on the Indian IT sector, but increasing tariffs on other sectors will raise costs overall for the tech industry’s American clients. This could lead to postponed investments, extended deal cycles, and delayed projects.

In this edition of the Chart of the Week, we analyse the YTD performance of IT stocks and the reasons behind their weak performance.

Muted overseas growth leads to revenue misses for Infosys and TCS

Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services, the two giants of India’s IT sector, have seen their share prices fall sharply in 2025. Both companies missed revenue estimates in Q4FY25 due to cautious spending from their clients and tariff uncertainties. Infy and TCS derive over 85% of theirrevenue from the US and Europe, and both companies have revised their growth outlook for FY25.

InQ4FY25, Infosys missed revenue estimates by 2.7% due to delayed deals and lower billing for third-party services. The company alsomissed its FY25 revenue guidance by 80 bps, growing 4.2%.

The company’s revenue from the US dipped slightly, while revenue from other global markets dropped 4.5% YoY. However, net profit rose 3.3% QoQ, thanks to lower third-party expenses.

For FY26, management guided muted revenue growth to 3%, citing tighter client budgets due to tariffs, and extended decision cycles for discretionary spending. Salil Parekh, the Infosys CEO, notes, “Clients are cautious with discretionary spending, leading to delays in decision-making and slower deal conversions.” Infosys' share price has declined by 20.2% in 2025.

Morgan Stanley downgraded Infosys to ‘equal weight’ from ‘overweight’ and reduced the target price to Rs 1,740, following the Q4 revenue miss and concern over slowing growth.

Tata Consultancy Services' profit fell 1.2% QoQ in Q4, missingestimates by 3.7%. TCS shares have declined 15.1% year-to-date, due toweakness in North America, where the economic mood has shifted from optimism in the previous quarter to extreme caution.

In Q4, operating margin fell 30 basis points QoQ to 24.2% due to higher sales and marketing expenses and the execution of low-margin deals across the consumer business, manufacturing, and communications segments. These segments account for two-thirds of the company’s total revenue.

Kotak Institutional Equities has lowered its target price on TCS to Rs 3,800 from Rs 3,900, while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, citing weak quarterly performance, margin miss, and concerns over the demand outlook.

Growth cools for LTIMindtree and Tech Mahindra amid renewal delays

Other tech players are also feeling the pain. LTIMindtree and Tech Mahindra, seen as agile challengers in the IT space, are facing slowdown pressures in their business verticals. Rising client concentration risks and weak traction in telecom, consumer, and healthcare verticals have led to revenue shortfalls in FY25.

LTIMindtree shares are down 18.1% year-to-date. The company generates 89% of its revenue from the US and Europe, with its top 10 clients contributing about one-third of the total revenue. Its key client, Citigroup, reduced its reliance on external IT contractors to 20% from 50%, impacting LTIMindtree’s stock performance.

In Q4FY25, net profit rose 4% QoQ but missed estimates by 2.8% due to delays in executing deals and client-specific challenges. Revenue fell 0.5% short of expectations, impacted by headwinds in the consumer and healthcare verticals, which kept the full-year revenue and profit flat.

Tech Mahindra's profit grew 18.6% QoQ to Rs 1,166.7 crore, driven by lower subcontracting costs and a deferred tax gain. However, revenue rose marginally to Rs 13,384 crore, missing estimates due to delays in customer renewals, seasonal impacts, and macro uncertainty. These factors contributed to a 14.5% decline in its share price in 2025.

The company's telecom and manufacturing segments, contributing 50% of total revenue, saw muted growth due to high inflation and reduced client spending. Revenue from the US, which is half of the total revenue, declined by 5.9%.

Jefferies maintained an "underperform" call on the stock with a price target of Rs 1,260 per share, citing weak Q4FY25 revenue growth and high valuations.

Wipro signals caution, while HCL offers an upbeat forecast

Wipro and HCL Technologies hold contrasting forecasts for FY26. Wipro signals a cautious approach due to concerns over tariff impacts, while HCL is optimistic, supported by order backlogs despite challenges in profitability.

Wipro’s struggles continue in Q4, and its shares are down 20% YTD. The company reported subdued revenue growth due to delayed project ramp-ups in its healthcare, consumer, and technology & communication verticals and flat revenue from international markets, specifically from Europe and the Americas regions.

Its profit rose 6.4% QoQ, exceeding estimates, driven by a lower effective tax rate and higher yield from non-core operations.

The company generates the majority of its total revenue from the US and European markets. Management expects revenue to decline by 1.5% to 3.5% in Q1FY26, driven by rising US tariff policies and concerns over a global market slowdown.

Bernstein has an 'Underperform' rating on Wipro with a target price of Rs 200 per share, citing concerns over clients' cautious IT spending and subdued Q1FY26 guidance.

HCL Technologies generates 93% of its revenue from the US and Europe. In Q4FY25, revenue grew 1.2% QoQ to Rs 30,246 crore, in line with estimates, supported by gains in technology services, financial services, and telecom. However, profit declined 6.2% QoQ due to higher employee benefits and tax expenses. The company's shares have fallen 18.6% YTD.

The company’s new bookings reached $3 billion in Q4, driven by the engineering research and development (ER&D) vertical and AI services. For FY26, management expects 2.0% - 5.0% YoY revenue growth. C Vijayakumar, CEO of HCL Technologies, said, “Q4 showed growth in core verticals, and moderate revenue growth is expected in FY26. The focus will be on managing operational costs, improving efficiency, and expanding presence in emerging markets.”

Nuvama upgraded HCL Tech to ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 1,700, highlighting its strong performance amid macroeconomic uncertainty and Q4 results in line with expectations.

It's been foggy days for Q4 results. The results so far aren’t giving us a clear, one-size-fits-all headline. Some sectors are riding strong on demand, while others are battling cost pressures, weak spending and project delays.

Analyst views are also all over the place. Crisil projects that overall revenue growth for Q4 will be flat at about 5-6%, but that profitability may improve. But Morgan Stanley expects a single-digit decline in profits, hitting a 19-quarter low due to weak revenues and falling margins. 

This quarter matters more than most. It gives us an early sense of how India Inc. is preparing for FY26 in an uncertain global environment.

While results so far have been mixed, most results are still not out. So we decided to take a look at what institutional analysts are predicting, with the help of Forecaster. This tells us the numbers Nifty 500 companies are likely to see across revenues, earnings, margins, and capex in this quarter's results.

The indicators we use here are: Q4 estimated revenue growth (YoY%), Q4 estimated earnings per share growth (YoY%), expected change in EBITDA Margin from Q3FY25 to Q4FY25 (percentage points), and FY25 capex growth (YoY%).

Let's dive in!

Revenue winners and losers: Strong numbers look likely for some, with pockets of weaknesses

This quarter looks like a good one for consumer-focused and manufacturing companies. These businesses could see revenues go up from strong demand and new product lines, while infra, energy, and NBFC players grapple with regulatory issues, cost and execution headwinds.

Elara Securities expectsconsumer electronics companies to benefit from increased local manufacturing, and consumer durable firms to gain from festive demand. In real estate, top developers are likely to see growth from demand in major cities and premium launches, while smaller players face challenges.

Among individual companies, Inox Wind is forecast to deliver strong revenue growth thanks to robust sales of its new 3MW wind turbines. Suven Pharma is expected to benefit from rising CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisation) demand and recent acquisitions like Cohance and NJ Bio.

In electronics, Dixon Technologies continues to be a star player, and should see higher revenues from increased mobile manufacturing, growth in its iSmartu brand, and strong refrigeration sales.

Sobha in real estate is likely to gain from over 20% higher bookings in Q4, while Bharat Dynamics in defence may grow with the execution of pending MRSAM (Medium Range Surface to Air Missile) orders.

On the other hand, NBFC revenues may drop due to weak demand, higher credit costs, and stress in microfinance, with net interest margins (NIMs) expected to shrink because of slow rate cuts.Aditya Birla Capital for example, could face topline pressure from regulatory tightening and weak credit growth.

The energy sector may face revenue pressure due to low crude price realisation and high LNG costs. Gujarat State Petronet may be hit by lower LNG production, costly imports and weak pipeline utilisation. Infra and industrial firms like KNR Constructions, PNC Infratech and Siemens see struggles ahead with project delays and a weaker government capex. 

EPS (Earnings Per Share) winners and losers: Consumer players shine, while Energy and Auto are under pressure

HDFC Securities is expecting a profitable quarter for the retail, jewellery and durables sectors, driven by improved consumer sentiment, stable raw material costs and rising temperatures. 

Sobha is set to benefit from strong bookings, while FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa)’s growing beauty segment and reduced fashion losses are expected to give its profits a boost.

Another potential winner is Sumitomo Chemical, which should gain from a favourable rabi season, solid exports, and stable costs.

Post its Gulf exit, healthcare company Aster DM Healthcare could improve profitability through cost optimisation and network expansion. Gujarat Fluorochemicals could benefit from industry tailwinds and recovering refrigerant gas prices.

On the flip side, Prestige Estates could see earnings pressure due to a high base and project delays. For Manappuram Finance, rising defaults in its microfinance book remain a concern. Meanwhile, Eternal's aggressive push to scale Blinkit might continue to weigh on profitability.

The revenue headwinds for PNC Infratechand Gujarat State Petronet mentioned earlier are also likely to spill over into its earnings.

At the sector level, consumer discretionary earnings are expected to rise, led by platforms like Swiggy and Nykaa, as well as jewellery firms gaining from elevated gold prices. 

In contrast, EPS for the energy sector may fall due to weaker marketing margins and LPG under-recoveries. Similarly, auto could see muted earnings, with pressures from low operating leverage, intense passenger vehicle competition, and rising input costs, especially in natural rubber.

A margin squeeze comes for everyone

On the margin front, Q4FY25 is shaping up to be a challenging quarter, with a sequential decline expected across all sectors. Morgan Stanley writes, “Indian corporates' margins are likely to contract for the first time in two years.” 

However, among the few companies that stand out, DLF could post margin gains from a larger share of high-margin, super-luxury residential projects and robust NRI demand. Balrampur Chini and Triveni Engineering in the sugar sector are also expected to expand margins, supported by higher sugar prices amid lower cane availability and increased ethanol diversion.

Natco Pharma could see better margins thanks to a favourable business mix between domestic and US markets, while Bharat Dynamics should benefit from strong revenue traction.

On the red side,Sun TV could suffer from slower FMCG ad spending and a soft theatrical release pipeline. Delays in delivering orders have likely dragged margins for Data Patterns, too. Kansai Nerolac might also see margin compression due to muted demand and intensified competition, while rising operating costs and fewer days in the quarter are expected to impact Airtel's margins.

Weaker government capex has compressed the margins of industrials like KNR Constructions. These two sectors - telecom and industrials - could report the highest sequential declines in margins this quarter.

Capex and private sector spending may finally see some pickup

On the capex front, FY25 is shaping up to be a year of strong private investment across sectors, even as government capex shows signs of slowing. The Ministry of Statistics highlights this trend, noting: “Despite challenges like weak demand, geopolitical tensions, and high borrowing costs, about 30% of firms plan to invest in upgradation in 2024–25, supporting the sharp increase in capex for that year. The slightly lower intended capex for 2025–26, though still above 2023–24 levels, reflects caution after a strong 2024–25”.

Leading the capex charts is the telecom sector, thanks mainly to Vodafone Idea. The company has rolled out a massive Rs. 50,000–55,000 crore investment plan over the next three years to upgrade its 4G and launch 5G services, out of which Rs. 10,000 crore is set to be spent in FY25 alone. Real estate is another sector making big investment moves, with Brigade and DLF leading the charge through expansion into new regions and a push to complete ongoing projects.

Among other sectors, IndiGo is focused on expanding its international footprint and upgrading its fleet, while Eternal's Blinkit wants to proliferate its dark stores and warehouses network.

However, a few companies are hitting the brakes. Inox Wind and Godrej Properties are expected to adopt a more conservative stance, focusing on executing existing projects, managing debt, and optimising cash flows. Similarly, Ramkrishna Forgings and Lemon Tree Hotels are looking to consolidate after recent expansion, while Bikaji Foods plans to prioritise higher utilisation of its current capacity before committing to new investments.

Across the board, most sectors are leaning toward higher capex in FY25, signalling growing confidence in the business cycle recovery and future demand prospects.

Some clear signals are emerging

Q4FY25 is expected to be a quarter of contrasts, with strong revenue momentum in consumer-facing sectors, but margin and earnings pressures for industries linked to energy and autos. On the upside, capex plans are ambitious across key sectors, pointing to long-term growth optimism.

As the Q4FY25 result season is underway, we look at stocks that posted strong results in Q3FY25, where Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects continued growth in Q4FY25. This screener shows stocks outperforming their industries in YoY revenue and net profit growth in Q3FY25, with strong Forecaster estimates for YoY revenue and earnings per share (EPS) growth in Q4FY25

The screener is dominated by stocks from the heavy electrical equipment, realty, healthcare facilities, pharmaceuticals, and software & services industries. Major stocks in the screener are Signaturglobal (India), Suzlon Energy, Inox Wind, Sobha, Amber Enterprises, Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), and PB Fintech.

Signatureglobal (India)’s YoY revenue surged the most, by 193.7% in Q3FY25, while its net profit rose by 1,266.3%.  Strong sales in projects like Titanium SPR, the township projects of Daxin, the City of Colours, and the Twin Towers helped with revenue growth. Trendylne’s Forecaster expects this realty company’s YoY revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to increase by 97.7% and 51.8%, respectively, in Q4FY25. Analysts at Axis Direct believe that the firm will sustain its strong growth momentum on the back of its strategy to capitalise on Gurugram’s urbanisation, new micro-markets in Delhi and a project pipeline of 26.1 million square feet with a gross development value (GDV) of Rs 35,000 crore.

Inox Wind also shows up in the screener after a YoY revenue and net profit growth of 81% and 18.8% in Q3FY25, driven by an 89% rise in order execution to 189 mega watt (MW). Forecaster expects this heavy electrical equipment company’s YoY revenue and EPS to improve by 158.3% and 616.9% during Q4FY25. Analysts at Systematix Institutional Equities expect the firm to show strong performance, led by improving deliveries of 3MW wind turbine generator (WTG) sets, and better execution. They believe that a pickup in engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) contracts and ramp-up of manufacturing operations will boost execution.

Amber Enterprises' YoY revenue and net profit grew by 64.8% and 52.2%, respectively, in Q3FY25, helped by strong performance in the consumer durables, electronics, room air conditioner (RAC), and non-RAC segments. Forecaster expects this consumer electronics company’s YoY revenue and EPS to rise by 22% and 47.1%, respectively, in Q4FY25. Analysts at Sharekhan believe that the company is well-positioned to capture the increasing demand from the components (including mobility, electronics, and non-RAC components) ecosystem. Management expects growth in components, new customer additions, and exports in the next 3-4 years.

Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)’s YoY revenue rose 57.4% in Q3FY25, driven by a 32% and 116% YoY increase in futures and options volumes. The capital markets company posted a net profit of Rs 160 crore in Q3FY25 compared to a net loss of Rs 5.4 crore in Q3FY24, owing to an 86.3% decline in IT and related expenses. Forecaster expects its YoY revenue and EPS to grow by 62% and 88.5%, respectively. Motilal Oswal expects the firm’s top line to grow, driven by new product launches in the futures and options segments, continued volatility in commodity prices, and sustained growth in retail participation in the options market.

1. ICICI Bank:

KR Choksey maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 1,662. This indicates an upside of 16.2%. In Q4FY25, the bank’s net interest income (NII) grew by 11% YoY to Rs 21,192.9 crore. Advances increased by 13.3%, supported by strong growth in the corporate loan, credit card, and mortgage segments. However, the bank’s current account savings account (CASA) ratio stood at 38.4% for the quarter, slightly lower than 38.9% in Q4FY24.

The company's management believes that deposit growth will stay strong, helped by improved liquidity in the system. ICICI Bank recently cut its savings account interest rates by 25 bps. Balances up to Rs 50 lakh will now earn 2.75% interest, while higher balances will earn 3.25%. The management expects this will make it easier to pass on lower interest rates and reduce the bank’s cost of raising funds.

Analyst Ishank Gupta said, “Despite industry-wide credit pressures, the bank kept its asset quality strong, with GNPA at 1.7% and NNPA at 0.4%, helped by careful lending and strong provisions.” He also noted that the bank’s diversified loan portfolio and focus on high-yield segments, like corporate loans and credit cards, provide a foundation for continued profitability.

2. Home First Finance:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this housing finance company with a target price of Rs 1,500, indicating an upside of 17.7%. The company raised Rs 1,250 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP) in April 2025. Analysts Abhijit Tibrewal, Nitin Aggarwal and Raghav Khemani note that this capital will help Home First expand its business over the next 3–4 years, and strengthen its leadership in the affordable housing finance (AHF) segment.

Home First Finance has expanded its geographic reach to reduce concentration risk and target emerging markets. It has seen some success, as the share of the top five states in total assets under management (AUM) fell from 78% in FY22 to 69% as of December 2024. The company plans to open 30–40 new branches in FY26, focusing on states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. This expansion aims to capitalise on the growing housing demand in tier 2 and tier 3 cities.

The company has surpassed Rs 10,000 crore in AUM and is likely to seek a credit rating upgrade after the recent capital raise. A higher credit rating would help reduce its borrowing costs. Tibrewal, Aggarwal, and Khemani project a CAGR of 26% for AUM and 31% for net profit over FY25-27.

3. Atul:

Emkay initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this specialty chemicals company with a target price of Rs 8,500. This indicates a potential upside of 25.7%. Atul has invested around Rs 2,000 crore over FY22–24 to expand capacity in existing products, including liquid epoxy resin (LER) and caustic soda. It commissioned a new 50 kilo tonnes per annum (ktpa) LER plant, increasing total LER capacity to 80 ktpa, and also set up a 300 tonnes per day (tpd) caustic soda plant. 

Additionally, the company has invested in backward integration into key products like mono chloro acetic acid (MCA) to support margin improvement. Analysts Meet Vora and Meet Gada note that 20–40% of existing capacity across various products is still underutilised. They highlight that the new capacities, along with the ramp-up of some underutilised ones, could generate around Rs 25,000–30,000 crore in revenue over the next 2–3 years, driven purely by volume growth.

Atul’s share price has declined by 11.5% over the past six months. Vora and Gada expect Atul to generate around Rs 2,000 crore in operating cash flow over the next three years. A significant portion of this is likely to be reinvested in growth-related capex, although some of the plans are still being finalised. They project a revenue and net profit CAGR of 15% and 37%, respectively, over FY25–27.

4. Ujjivan Small Finance:

Axis Direct initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this microfinance bank with a target price of Rs 49. This indicates a potential upside of 11.6%. Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya and Pranav Nawale highlight that the bank’s collection efficiency (CE) and credit costs have improved QoQ across all states.

Analysts believe that microfinance loan (MFI) stress is gradually decreasing due to the rise in secured lending products across its key states, including Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. They expect MFI stress to ease by H1FY26, driven by improvements in asset quality.

The bank’s management is aiming to shift the majority of its portfolio mix towards secured micro mortgage products, such as gold loans and vehicle finance, to balance the portfolio mix and reduce risk. In FY25, the non-MFI portfolio rose by 50% YoY. 

Vaidya and Nawale expect net interest margins (NIMs) to remain between 8.5-8.8% and return on assets (ROA) to range from 1.9-2.1% by FY27. This outlook is supported by a focus on low-cost CASA deposits and benefits from the ongoing rate-cut cycle.

5. Tata Consultancy Services:

Geojit BNP Paribas retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this IT software company with a target price of Rs 3,671, indicating an upside potential of 5.7%. The company’s Q4FY25 revenue rose 5.3% YoY to Rs 64,479 crore, driven by strong traction in emerging markets and deal wins.

In Q4FY25, TCS’ India revenue grew by 33.1% YoY, driven by increased state government investments in digital platforms for education automation and employability. However, EBITDA declined by 1.1% to Rs. 16,980 crore due to higher employee benefit expenses and increased software license costs. The company’s stock price has dropped by 14% over the past quarter.

Analyst Vincent notes that the tariff war indirectly impacts IT companies due to supply chain disruptions in sectors such as auto, manufacturing, and retail, and businesses tightening their belts. He believes TCS will address these tariff-related challenges by leveraging AI for IT cost savings and focusing on industry-specific AI and data solutions. It has to be noted however, that ‘AI’ is doing a lot of work for TCS in managing expectations here.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

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