Atul Ltd. share price target

Atul invested ~Rs20bn over the last three years in setting up capacity (capex matching the cumulative investment over the last decade). In its analyst meet, management highlighted unrealized sales potential of over Rs25bn from recently concluded capex (~Rs17bn) and from previously unutilized capacity (~Rs8bn).

Atul’s (ATLP) 4QFY25 revenue came in line with our expectation. The Life Science Chemicals (LSC) segment’s revenue increased 18% YoY, while the Performance & Other Chemicals (P&OC) segment’s revenue rose 21% YoY.

We initiate coverage on Atul with BUY and TP of Rs8,500 (30x Mar-27E EPS). Atul has invested ~Rs20bn over FY22-24 toward capacity expansion in existing products like Liquid Epoxy Resin (50ktpa) and Caustic Soda (300tpd), and in the backward integration of some key products (MCA for 2,4 D).

Atul (ATLP) reported revenue 7% above our expectation in 3QFY25. Revenue in the Life Science Chemicals segment increased 23% YoY, while it rose 24% YoY in the Performance & Other Chemicals segment

Topline rose 17% y-o-y and 5% q-o-q, with operating Profit of Rs. 243 crore and adjusted
PAT of Rs. 112 Crore surpassing our estimates, attributed to margin enhancements in
LSC and POC.

Atul (ATLP) reported in-line revenue in 2QFY25. Revenue in the Life Science Chemicals segment increased 13% YoY, while it rose 18% YoY in the Performance & Other Chemicals segment.

ATLP has burned for three long years (FY22-24) and it is a classic case of valuations perched higher despite a significant decline in earnings. During FY22/FY23/ FY24, EBITDA declined 1%/15%/18% YoY .

Consolidated revenue for Q1FY2025 was Rs. 1,322 crore, reflecting a 12% increase from the previous year and a 9% rise from the previous quarter, slightly exceeding our estimate of Rs. 1,314 crore by 1%.

Atul (ATLP) reported in-line revenue in 4QFY24. Revenue in the Life
Science Chemicals segment declined 8% YoY, while it increased 5% YoY in
the Performance & Other Chemicals segment.

Helped by base effect (from the pandemic), Atul's income from operations by a little enthusing 63.5% to Rs 1080.20 crs from just Rs 660.56 crs in the same quarter a year ago; though quarter on quarter income from operations slid 3.2%. Performance and other chemicals business accounted for most of the swell for its sales advanced by a blistering...