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Market trades lower, Traxcn Technologies' IPO gets bids for 54% of the available shares

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 lost over 250 points amid selling pressure towards the end of the trading session and closed below the 17,000 mark. Indian indices closed in the red with the volatility index, India VIX, at around 20.5%. European stocks followed the global trend and traded lower than Monday’s close as the Bank of England warned of a "material risk to U.K. financial stability" due to crisis in the country's pension fund sector.

Major Asian indices closed in the red, in line with the US indices, which also closed lower on Monday. The tech-heavy index NASDAQ 100 lost over 1% and settled at its lowest level since July 2020. Investors look ahead to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and US inflation print to be released later this week. Brent crude oil futures traded sharply after losing 2.4% on Monday. However, crude oil is still up over 9% in the last six days amid supply concerns.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the red, following the benchmark index. Nifty Energy and Nifty Pharma closed lower than Monday’s levels. Nifty IT closed in the red as investors assessed TCS’ Q2FY23 results announced on Monday.

Nifty 50 closed at 16,964.15 (-276.9, -1.6%) , BSE Sensex closed at 57,147.32 (-843.8, -1.5%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 14,700.90 (-250.8, -1.7%)

Market breadth is highly negative. Of the 1,937 stocks traded today, 419 showed gains, and 1,476 showed losses.

  • Stocks like Cochin Shipyard, Rites, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, and Tejas Networks are in the overbought zone, according to the relative strength index or RSI.

  • Brigade Enterprises' Chairman and Managing Director M R Jaishankar steps down as the company’s MD. He will continue to remain the Executive Chairman.

  • ITD CementationIndia wins orders worth Rs 1,755 crore for construction projects like container terminal in the port of Colombo in Sri Lanka, berth and yard facilities at Dhamra port in Odisha, and piling and civil work for coke oven project at Hazira plant in Gujarat.

  • Traxcn Technologies Rs 309.3-crore IPO gets bids for 54% of the available 2.1 crore shares on offer on the second day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 2.6X of the available 38.6 lakh shares on offer.

  • Mastek and Medplus Health Services hit their 52-week lows of Rs 596.5 and Rs 1,663, respectively. Both stocks fall for three-consecutive sessions.

  • Larsen & Toubro’s arm L&T Construction wins repeat orders worth Rs 1,000-2,500 crore from the state government of Odisha. The order pertains to the execution of lift irrigation projects to enable the irrigation of almost 30,000 hectares in the districts of Keonjhar, Jajpur, and Kendrapada in Odisha.

  • HDFC Securities initiates coverage on Endurance Technologies with a ‘Reduce’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,340. The brokerage expects the company’s profitability to be impacted by the slowdown in demand for two-wheelers, a fall in demand for passenger vehicles in Europe, and a sharp rise in energy costs in Europe. The brokerage also believes the company is currently trading at an expensive valuation

  • Commerial Services & Supplies, Hardware Technology & Equipment and Hotels, Restaurants & Tourismsectors rise more than 25% in the past 90 days.

  • Rajesh Ravi of HDFC Securities expects the cement industry’s volume to grow 8% YoY. He also expects the industry’s margin to expand during H2FY23 however fluctuations in fuel prices remain a concern.
  • Sobha is rising as its total sales value rises 13% YoY to Rs 1,164.2 crore as demand for residential and office spaces increases in Q2FY23. Its average price realization is up 14% YoY. It shows up on a screener which lists stocks with strong cash-generating ability from core business.

  • Sugar stocks like Shree Renuka Sugars, EID Parry (India), Balrampur Chini Mills, and Dalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries are rising in trade. The sugar industry is up 2.5% in trade today.

  • Automotive Axles is rising as Cummins Inc places an open offer to acquire 26% stake (or 39.3 lakh shares) in the company. The open offer comes after Cummins' subsidiary, Rose Inc entered a merger agreement with Meritor Inc. Meritor is a promoter entity of Automotive Axles and holds 35.52% stake in the company.

  • Realtystocks like Brigade Enterprises, Oberoi Realty, Sobha, and Phoenix Mills are falling in trade. The broader sectoral index Nifty Realty is also trading in red.

  • IndusInd Bank falls over 3% as 1.2 crore shares (1.6% equity) amounting to Rs 1,442 crore change hands in a large trade, according to reports.

  • Infosys announces that its board of directors will consider a proposal to buyback equity shares at its upcoming board meeting on Thursday.

  • Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) receives approvals from the national company law tribunals of Ahmedabad and Hyderabad to acquire the remaining 58.1% stake in Gangavaram Port (GPL). The company had already bought a 41.9% stake in GPL during FY22. The remaining stake will be purchased through a share swap deal, with 4.77 crore shares of APSEZ being issued to the promoters of GPL. The acquisition is valued at Rs 6,200 crore.

  • Morgan Stanley expects Delhivery’s express parcel volumes to go up during the festive season. It also expects the company's gross margin to improve to 21% in Q2FY23, compared to 16.8% in Q1.
  • RateGain Travel Technologies, a SaaS company, is rising in trade as Royal Orchid Hotels selects the company to help the hotel chain in providing competitive pricing and connect online travel agents globally.

  • Mohnish Pabrai buys a 0.4% stake in Rain Industriesin Q2FY23, he now holds an 8.8% stake in the company.

  • India Cements sells its entire shareholding in Springway Mining to JSW Cement for a cash consideration of Rs 476.9 crore. Springway Mining is no longer a wholly owned subsidiary of India Cements.

  • Tata Consultancy Services’ Q2FY23 net profit rises 10% QoQ to Rs 10,431 crore led by strong deal wins. Revenue increases by 4.8% QoQ driven by growth across all its business verticals led by the communication, media & technology and life sciences & healthcare segments. The stock shows up on the screener which lists companies with revenue increasing sequentially for the past eight quarters.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Bata India Ltd. (1,810.30, 1.64%), Gland Pharma Ltd. (2,083.60, 1.58%) and Axis Bank Ltd. (785.55, 1.12%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include JSW Energy Ltd. (326.85, -5.33%), Divi's Laboratories Ltd. (3,502.20, -5.00%) and Havells India Ltd. (1,279.40, -4.91%).

Movers and Shakers

15 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Kalpataru Power Transmissions Ltd. (447.90, 4.71%), Rajesh Exports Ltd. (625.90, 3.98%) and Star Cement Ltd. (110.05, 3.58%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Divi's Laboratories Ltd. (3,502.20, -5.00%), IndusInd Bank Ltd. (1,164.60, -3.78%) and Intellect Design Arena Ltd. (502.65, -3.32%).

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (697.80, -0.69%) was trading at 13.2 times of weekly average. Shipping Corporation of India Ltd. (118.85, 2.06%) and Aster DM Healthcare Ltd. (248.30, -2.65%) were trading with volumes 6.8 and 4.3 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

6 stocks took off, crossing 52 week highs, while 7 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Kalpataru Power Transmissions Ltd. (447.90, 4.71%), Star Cement Ltd. (110.05, 3.58%) and Tata Chemicals Ltd. (1,164.35, -2.94%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Biocon Ltd. (268.75, -3.12%) and Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (697.80, -0.69%).

8 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Shipping Corporation of India Ltd. (118.85, 2.06%) and Honeywell Automation India Ltd. (38,890.20, 0.64%). 28 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including United Spirits Ltd. (815.60, -4.94%) and PNB Housing Finance Ltd. (386.20, -4.79%).

Market closes lower, Tracxn Technologies' IPO gets bids for 23% of the available shares

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 recovered over 175 points from its day’s low but still closed in the red on a volatileday of trade. European indices followed the global trend and traded lower than Friday’s close. India's foreign exchange reserves fall to $532.66 billion, its lowest level since July 2020. India's forex reserves decrease by $4.85 billion for the week ending September 30 compared to the previous week. Indian rupee touches a new lifetime low of 82.64 against the US dollar in early trade today.

Major Asian indices closed in the red, in line with the US indices, which settled sharply lower on Friday. US stocks fell as strong September jobs report raised the possibility of the Federal Reserve continuing with its aggressive monetary policy tightening to combat high inflation. The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 fell 3.9% while the Dow Jones closed 2.1% lower. Brent Crude oil futures traded lower after rising 3.7% on Friday. Crude oil prices hit a five-week high on Friday amid supply concerns as OPEC+ recommended the largest supply cut since 2020 last week.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the red, following the benchmark index. Nifty FMCG and Nifty Media closed lower than Friday’s levels. Nifty IT closed higher as investors looked ahead to heavyweight Tata Consultancy Services’ Q2FY23 results to be declared later today.

Nifty 50closed at 17,252.45 (-62.2, -0.4%), BSE Sensexclosed at 57,991.11 (-200.2, -0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 14,961.25 (-75.5, -0.5%)

Market breadth is overwhelmingly negative. Of the 1,964 stocks traded today, 616 were on the uptrend, and 1,283 went down.

  • Hero MotoCorpsees a short build-up in its October 27 future series as its open interest rises 22.5% with put to call ratio of 0.28.

  • US introduces new measures to cut off China from various semiconductor chips made in the world with the help of US equipment. The US aims to slow down China’s technological and military advancements through these measures.
  • ICICI Securities reiterates its 'Buy' rating on Macrotech Developers with a target price of Rs 1,348. This indicates an upside of 35.3%. The brokerage believes that the company's strong launch pipeline and sustenance in sales momentum will help revenue growth. It estimates the company's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% over FY22-24.

  • Suzlon Energy appoints Vinod R Tanti as the Chairman and Managing Director of the company on Friday. The appointment is subject to the approval of the shareholders at the next general meeting.

  • Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and Cochin Shipyard hit their 52-week highs of Rs 680 and Rs 559.8, respectively. Both stocks rise for seven consecutive sessions.

  • JSW Steel’s Q2FY23 combined crude steel production rises 12% to 5.68 million tonnes led by its Indian operations’ production volumes rising 36% YoY. However, its combined crude steel production falls 3% QoQ due to maintenance shutdowns, supply chain constraints, and subdued market conditions in the US.

  • Axis Direct initiates coverage on IDFC First Bank with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 70, implying an upside of 29%. The brokerage expects the bank’s profitability to improve as it has one of the best CASA ratios among its peers, a well-diversified retail loan book, a pan-India geographical presence, and improving asset quality. The brokerage estimates the bank’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 194.6% over FY22-25.

  • Tracxn Technologies Rs 309.3-crore IPO gets bids for 23% of the available 2.1 crore shares on offer on the first day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 1.2X of the available 38.6 lakh shares on offer. The issue is entirely an offer for sale.

  • Nomura expects India’s FY24 GDP growth rate to fall to 5.2% due to a slowdown in the global economy. It expects India's GDP growth to be at 7% in FY23.
  • Consulting Servicessector rises more than 6% in trade today despite a weak market. Integrated oil & gas, non-alcoholic beverages and surface transportationsectors fall more than 3.5% in trade today.

  • Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley says that the depreciation of the rupee will continue. He expects a rate hike rate of 25 bps by the US Federal Reserve in January.
  • Easy Trip Planners is rising as its board approves a stock split in the ratio of 1:1, subject to shareholders' approval. This will be followed by a bonus issue of three bonus shares for one existing share. The company had done a bonus issue in the ratio of 1:1 in February.

  • Adani Group is in advanced talks with Jaiprakash Power Ventures to acquire its cement unit for Rs 5,000 crore, according to reports. Jaiprakash Power Ventures intends to divestits cement grinding unit in Nigrie, Madhya Pradesh and other non-core assets. The company intends to use the proceeds of the sale of its cement unit to cut debt.

  • Bandhan Bank falls as its CASA ratio dips 380 bps YoY to 40.8% in Q2FY23. However, loan advances rise 22% YoY and total deposits increase to 21% YoY. The bank’s collection efficiency also improves to 97% in Q2.

  • IDBI Bank is rising as the Centre invites bids to sell a large part of its stake in the company. Currently, the Government of India holds a 45.4% stake and the Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) holds a 49.2% stake in the company. The Centre plans to offload a 30.4% stake and LIC plans to pare its holding by 30.2%. The management control will also be transferred to IDBI Bank.

  • Ramkrishna Forgingswins an export order worth Rs 131.5 crore from a rear and front Axle manufacturer for its heavy commercial vehicles application in North America. The order will be executed over a period of four years.

  • Hindustan Unilever and Godrej Consumer Products are falling in trade as they cut soap prices due to raw material costs easing up. Fall in palm oil costs results in Hindustan Unilever cutting prices by 5-11% and Godrej Consumer Products by 13-15%.

  • Indian rupee touches a new lifetime low of 82.64 against the US dollar in early trade today.

  • One97 Communications (Paytm) is rising as its loan disbursals grow 224% YoY to 92 lakhs in Q2FY23, while the value of loans disbursed rises 482% YoY. Merchant payment volumes increase by 63% YoY. Offline payment volumes, subscription revenue and merchant loan distribution rise as devices deployed at merchant stores increase to 48 lakh in Q2.

  • Traxcn Technologies’ raises Rs 139 from investors ahead of its IPO which opens for subscription today. The company allotted 1.7 crore equity shares at a price of Rs 80 per share to the anchor investors. The investors include ICICI Prudential, India Acorn Fund, Whiteoak Capital, Abakkus Emerging Opportunities Fund, BNP Paribas Arbitrage, Tara Emerging Asia Liquid Fund, and Motilal Oswal Fund.

  • Tata Motors arm Jaguar Land Rover’s retail sales fall 4.9% YoY to 88,121 units in Q2FY23. However, retail sales were higher on a QoQ basis. The company says that although sales were up in Q2 production continues to be affected by semiconductor shortages.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include IDBI Bank Ltd. (46.55, 9.02%), One97 Communications Ltd. (727.25, 2.80%) and Axis Bank Ltd. (776.85, 2.80%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Varun Beverages Ltd. (1,089.60, -4.02%), Tata Motors Ltd. (395.95, -3.93%) and Ashok Leyland Ltd. (154.35, -3.32%).

Movers and Shakers

13 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Brightcom Group Ltd. (41.45, 12.94%), IDBI Bank Ltd. (46.55, 9.02%) and Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd. (38.50, 6.94%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Cholamandalam Financial Holdings Ltd. (636.90, -1.28%), Crisil Ltd. (3,133.70, -1.12%) and Westlife Development Ltd. (729.75, -0.18%).

Castrol India Ltd. (115.50, 3.22%) was trading at 6.8 times of weekly average. Star Health and Allied Insurance Company Ltd. (732.60, 1.88%) and Jyothy Labs Ltd. (200.80, 2.32%) were trading with volumes 6.7 and 4.7 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

14 stocks made 52-week highs, while 2 stocks hit their 52-week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - EID Parry (India) Ltd. (605.80, -1.62%), IDFC Ltd. (72.55, 2.62%) and J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (1,970.15, -1.49%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (702.65, -1.51%) and Gland Pharma Ltd. (2,051.10, -1.23%).

7 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Equitas Holdings Ltd. (102.65, 2.14%) and DCM Shriram Ltd. (1,047.70, 1.54%). 24 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Hatsun Agro Products Ltd. (1,029.50, -3.15%) and Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. (454.50, -2.80%).

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The Baseline
07 Oct 2022
Five Interesting Stocks Today
  1. APL Apollo Tubes: The stock of this structural steel tube maker gained over 9% ever since it released its business update for Q2FY23 on October 1, 2022. It also touched a 52-week high on Thursday and has outperformed the Nifty 500 index by over eight percentage points in the past week.

APL Apollo Tubes reported its highest-ever sales volumes in Q2FY23 which were at 6.02 lakh tonnes. The volumes jumped over 40% YoY and sequentially in Q1FY23 led by the ‘Apollo Structural’ product category. Within this category, general structures grew the fastest in this quarter. As a result, share of the value-added segment in APL’s overall volumes fell to 54% in the quarter from 61% in Q1FY23. The management’s medium-term goal is contrary to the actual result. It aims to raise the share of value-added products in its sales volumes to 75% by FY25. Nevertheless, the volume numbers for Q2FY23 are impressive as the company had seen its volume fall by more than 20% QoQ in the previous quarter. This was on account of distributors reducing their stocks as a response to falling steel prices. Back then, the company was confident of clocking one million tonnes of sales in H1FY23. It has comfortably exceeded that target despite Q2FY23 being a seasonally weak quarter for construction given the monsoon season.

Given the rising applications of steel tubes for construction of airports, warehouses and high-rise buildings, the company aims to clock a volume CAGR of over 30% between FY22 and FY25. Its targeted sales volumes are at four million tonnes for FY25. Its upcoming facility of 1.5 MTPA in Raipur will enable APL Apollo to achieve this growth target. In fact, the company may generate additional volumes of 30 to 40 lakh tonnes from the Raipur plant in FY23. The outlook for APL Apollo is promising with the government’s thrust on infrastructure development. 

  1. Angel One: This brokerage company’s stock rose over 12% on Tuesday after it released its monthly business update. Angel One’s client base rose 77.4% YoY to 1.15 crore in September. In addition, a jump in average daily turnover (ADTO) of Futures and Options (FnO) and commodities segments helped the overall ADTO to increase by 116.4% YoY. With such a rise in share price after the business update, Angel One comes up in a screener that shows companies whose share price is trading above their short, medium, and long-term moving averages. 

The sharp rise in the FnO ATDO could be due to the volatile nature of the markets. This bodes well for the company as it has a higher dependence on FnO income. Overall, the top five brokerages account for around 58% of the overall NSE active clients with Angel one’s market share at about 9%.

Though the company posted strong numbers, investors will have to note that trading enthusiasm slows down when markets are in a downturn. This remains a key risk for Angel One. This is reflected in its gross client acquisition, which fell both YoY and QoQ in September. Active users in the industry also fell both in July and August indicating a slowdown. However, the company’s share price is rising ahead of its Q2FY23 results, which is scheduled to be released on October 13. 

  1. VIP Industries: This luggage manufacturer rose more than 7% in intra-day trade on Monday and over the past month, it gained over 18.9% till Thursday. The uptrend in the stock’s price comes on the back of a robust business outlook. The rise in demand for travel this festive season is expected to augur well for the company given its dominant position in the organised luggage industry. The firm commands a market share of 45% in the industry, according to reports. Another key positive for the company has been its focus on increasing revenue from its own manufacturing. In-house manufacturing contributed 64% of revenue in Q1FY23, up from 35% in Q1FY20. 

Along with improving its manufacturing capabilities, the firm has sharply reduced sourcing finished goods from China in Q1FY23 to 11% from 40% in FY20, according to ICICI Direct. This helps it reduce its exposure to forex fluctuations and disruptions in the supply chain. Over the past year, the company has risen over 40.4% till Thursday and made it to this screener with stocks that have had high returns consistently over the past 5 years.

The management has targeted annual revenue of Rs 2,000 crore in FY23, given a recovery in demand and a fall in some key raw material prices, according to reports. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates its revenue to grow 32.9% YoY to Rs 1,921.3 crore in FY23, coming in close to the company’s intended target. At the end of FY22, the company had 376 exclusive brand outlets, and by the end of FY23, it aims to increase its retail store network to 500. The firm hopes to achieve this target by expanding into smaller towns in India, and most of these outlets will be opened through a franchise model.

  1. Avenue Supermarts (DMart): This retail chain company rose more than 3% on September 30 after brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher increased its target price for the stock by 16.7% to Rs 5,118. The stock also shows up on a screener where brokers upgraded recommendations and target prices in the past three months. Three brokers upgraded their recommendations while five brokers increased their target price for the stock.

Prabhudas Lilladher feels that the stores opened by DMart during the pandemic will deliver gains in FY23. It also believes that the company’s current strategy of ‘Everyday Low Prices’ will drive sales in this festive season, beating inflation woes. It also expects ‘Dmart Ready’ - a new venture by the company into door-to-door delivery service - to clock growth in FY23 as its sales almost doubled in FY22. One view of the new venture is that despite heavy competition in this segment, DMart has not structured its model on heavy discounts which generally burns cash flow, resulting in losses. The brokerage expects DMart’s top line to grow by 38% YoY and net profit to increase by 46% in Q2FY23.

The company recently gave out its quarterly business update. Its revenue is up 35.8% YoY to Rs 10,384.6 crore in Q2FY23. This number is almost double (Rs 5,218.1 crore) of revenue generated in Q2FY21. Although revenue growth is slightly down because of lower rural demand and rising inflation, some segments like apparel and general merchandise are seeing a surge. The company also plans to open more stores and expand geographically in FY23. Analysts expect that Avenue Supermarts’ EBITDA will break even by FY25 if it scales up at a faster pace. 

  1. Blue Dart Express: This logistics company touched its all-time high of Rs 9,640 on Tuesday and rose 9.2% in the past week till Thursday. The stock started its uptrend after the company announced an increase in shipment prices by 9.6% on September 28, effective from January 1, 2023. The management said the price hike will be taken to offset rising input costs, high inflation, and rising interest rates. The surge in share price comes on the back of expected volume growth and market share gains. This is due to its 54% market share in the organised air express market and the ability to deliver to 98% of pin codes in India. The company also shows up on a screener which lists stocks with rising cash flow from their operations in the last two years.  

The company has been able to maintain its gross margins at 36% in FY22, despite  elevated aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices. Its ability to pass on prices and a 30% surge in volumes during FY22 aided in maintaining its margin, according to Motilal Oswal. Looking ahead, the management wants to expand its ground express segment and increase the segment’s contribution to total revenue from its current levels. This is because it expects the growth in this segment to be 2X the growth in the air express segment, mainly due to cost differential in services. The management also plans to scale up its services in e-commerce as well, as it sees this segment driving growth in the long term.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movement, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

Market closes flat, EID Parry and Praj Industries hit their all-time highs

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50recovered from its day’s low and closed flat, with the volatility index, India VIX, falling below 19%. European indices followed the global trend and traded lower than Thursday’s close. World Bank cuts India’s FY23 GDP forecast by 100 basis points to 6.5%. Indian rupee touched an all-time low of 82.2 against the US dollar amid rate hike concerns on Thursday.

Major Asian indices closed in the red, in line with the US indices, which closed lower on Thursday. US stocks fell on Thursday ahead of a key US jobs data release scheduled later today. The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 fell 0.8% while the Dow Jones closed 1.2% lower on a volatile day of trade. Brent crude oil futures traded flat after rising around 8% in the last four trading sessions amid supply concerns.

Nifty Smallcap 100 closed in the green, despite the benchmark index closing lower. Nifty Bank and Nifty FMCG traded lower than Thursday’s close. Nifty IT closed lower, taking cues from the NASDAQ 100, which closed in the red on Thursday.

Nifty 50closed at 17,316.15 (-15.7, -0.1%), BSE Sensexclosed at 58,191.29 (-30.8, -0.1%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 15,037.20 (-15.9, -0.1%)

Market breadth is in the green. Of the 1,925 stocks traded today, 1,027 were on the uptick, and 832 were down.

  • Stocks like Rites, Cochin Shipyard, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, and Zydus Lifesciencesare in the overboughtzone, according to the Money Flow Index or MFI.

  • Restaurant stocks like Jubilant Foodworks, Sapphire Foods India, Restaurant Brands Asia, Barbeque-Nation Hospitalityand Coffee Day Enterprisesfall in trade. The restaurant industry also trades in the red today.

  • Emkay Global reiterates its 'Buy' rating on IndusInd Bank with a target price of Rs 1,275. This indicates an upside of 10.3%. The brokerage believes the company's non-performing assets (NPA) will fall from the levels Q1FY23. It estimates the company's interest revenue to grow at a CAGR of 11.8% over FY22-25.

  • Tata Steel’s Q2FY23 domestic production rises 1.7% YoY but its Europe business segment’s production falls 6.3% YoY. The company’s domestic sales volume rises 7.2% YoY whereas its Europe business segment’s sales volume declines 12.1% YoY.

  • Electronics Mart’s Rs 500-crore IPO gets bids for 71.9X of the available 6.25 crore shares on offer on the last day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 19.7X of the available 3.1 crore shares on offer.

  • EID Parry (India) and Praj Industries hit their all-time highs of Rs 621.9 and Rs 461.4, respectively. Both stocks rise for three consecutive sessions.

  • NTPC signs an MoU with General Electric (GE) Gas Power to demonstrate the feasibility of hydrogen co-firing in the gas turbines to decarbonise power generation. This agreement pertains to GE’s gas turbines installed in the company’s Kawas gas power plant in Gujarat. The companies intend to explore ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the Kawas power plant.

  • Lupin rises after it announces partnerships with global agencies like Unitaid, The Aurum Institute, Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) etc. to support the treatment of tuberculosis. The company plans to introduce new formulations and affordable medicines which will be easily accessible in 138 countries.

  • Coal, Metals & Mining, and Hardware Technology & Equipmentsectors rise more than 6.5% in the past week.

  • Maruti Suzuki is rising after Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on the stock with a ‘Buy’ and a target price of Rs 10,500. The brokerage says that the company is in a better position due to falling raw material prices and its new model launches like Grand Vistara and Jimny.

  • Indian Overseas Bank, GMR Infrastructure and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals trade below their second support or S2 level as market trades lower.

  • Indian Hume Pipe is rising as it bags an order worth Rs 194 crore from the Maharashtra government. The order is for the water supply of 150 villages in Jalgaon under the Jal Jeevan mission project.

  • Sharekhan continues to be positive on HDFC Bank’s growth prospects as it retains its ‘Buy’ rating on the bank with a target price of Rs 1,800. This indicates an upside of 23.9%. The brokerage expects the bank’s healthy loan growth trend to continue driven by the retail and corporate segments. It also believes the company’s focus on improving its digital capabilities and franchise network will aid growth in the coming quarters. The brokerage estimates the bank’s profit to grow at a CAGR of 17.5% over FY22-25.

  • World Bank lowers India’s FY23 GDP growth forecast to 6.5% from its earlier estimate of 7.5%.

  • Biocon falls after a European Directorate of Quality of medicines and healthcare (EDQM) cites a major deficiency at the API manufacturing site in Bangalore. The stock shows up on a screener of companies with declining RoA for the last two years.

  • Bank stocks IDFC First Bank, Bank of Baroda, Bandhan Bank among others are falling in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Bank index also trade in the red.

  • Indian rupee touches an all-time low of 82.2 against the US dollar in early trade today.

  • Titan is rising as its overall sales in Q2FY23 rise 18% YoY as customer sentiment improves across all of its business segments. The overall sales growth is driven by the jewellery, watches, and accessories & apparel segments rising 18% YoY, 20% YoY, and 58% YoY, respectively. The company adds 105 retail stores for the quarter.

  • Dolly Khannabuys a 0.1% stake in Talbros Automotive Componentsduring Q2FY23, she now holds a 1.2% in the company.

  • Quess Corp’s board approves the disinvestment of 53% stake in its non-material subsidiary Simpliance Technologies. Simpliance Tech is valued at Rs 120 crore and Quess Corp will receive its due consideration after adjustments are made for cash, debt and working capital. The company shows up on a screener which lists stocks with improving RoE in the last two years.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Zomato Ltd. (69.55, 6.10%), Titan Company Ltd. (2,730.50, 5.31%) and JSW Energy Ltd. (345.00, 4.34%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Adani Total Gas Ltd. (3,187.60, -3.64%), Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. (618.95, -3.17%) and Dalmia Bharat Ltd. (1,524.35, -2.95%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

13 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Poly Medicure Ltd. (1,010.65, 6.18%), Zomato Ltd. (69.55, 6.10%) and Mahindra CIE Automotive Ltd. (317.25, 6.00%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Varroc Engineering Ltd. (315.30, -6.87%), Dalmia Bharat Ltd. (1,524.35, -2.95%) and Emami Ltd. (487.75, -2.50%).

Century Plyboards (India) Ltd. (630.15, 0.02%) was trading at 4.1 times of weekly average. Titan Company Ltd. (2,730.50, 5.31%) and eClerx Services Ltd. (1,460.65, 2.59%) were trading with volumes 4.1 and 3.7 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

14 stocks overperformed with 52-week highs, while 1 stock hit its 52-week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - EID Parry (India) Ltd. (615.80, 1.85%), Phoenix Mills Ltd. (1,451.65, 2.39%) and Solar Industries India Ltd. (4,139.30, 1.87%).

Stock making new 52 weeks lows included - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (713.40, -2.37%).

12 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including JSW Energy Ltd. (345.00, 4.34%) and Heidelberg Cement India Ltd. (197.70, 3.73%). 12 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Endurance Technologies Ltd. (1,360.05, -2.91%) and Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (829.85, -2.79%).

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The Baseline
06 Oct 2022
Chart of the week: Hong Kong's Hang Seng index falls the most in the past six months
By Abdullah Shah

2022 has seen rising inflation and interest rates, as well as conflict in Europe. The weakening environment has spooked investors,  resulting in a global sell-off across indices as people hunt for less risky options for their money.

The Hang Seng index of Hong Kong, China fell 18.4%, the most in the past six months among global indices. The index fell to its lowest level since October 2011. The major reason for this fall is traders selling equities for much safer government bonds, as Covid zero policies and weakening GDP growth discourage investment. 

The USA’s S&P 500 fell 15.6% in the last six months. Ever since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 bps for the third consecutive time on September 21, the index has taken another plunge and dropped below the lows of June.

The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 index fell 7.1% over the last six months. The US Fed’s interest rate hikes combined with the UK government’s unfunded tax cuts in its mini-budget have resulted in the British pound falling to its all-time low of $1.038 on September 26. The concerns around the tax cuts fuelling further inflation in the UK has caused investors to pull out of the equity market.

India’s Nifty 50 index has fared well compared to most other global indices. It has fallen just 2.4% in the past six months. A broad sell-off from foreign investors contributed to this drop. Another reason is the fall of the Indian rupee to its all time low of Rs 81.9 per dollar on September 28. Japan’s Nikkei index has recovered in recent weeks on the back of strong buying from retail investors.

As we head into the second half of FY23, central banks are likely to further increase interest rates to keep inflation in check. 

Market closes higher, Apollo Hospitals acquires 60% stake in Kerala First Health Services

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed in the green but fell from its day’s high towards the final hour of the trading session. European shares traded higher as investors awaited minutes of the European Central Bank’s September monetary policy meeting. India's services Purchasing Managers' Index or PMI missed estimates and fell to 54.3 in September from 57.2 in August.

Major Asian indices closed higher despite the US indices closing marginally lower on Wednesday. US stocks settled lower after strong US labour demand suggested the Federal Reserve could keep the federal funds rate higher for a more extended period. Previously, on Monday and Tuesday, US indices posted their best two-day rally since 2020. Brent crude oil futures traded lower after rising over 9% in the last three days. Crude oil prices rose over 2% on Wednesday after OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day to arrest a fall in crude oil prices.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. Nifty Metal and Nifty Media closed sharply higher than Tuesday’s levels. Nifty IT closed in the green, following the NASDAQ 100 futures, which are trading higher.

Nifty 50closed at 17,316.30 (42, 0.2%), BSE Sensexclosed at 58,222.10 (156.6, 0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 15,042.90 (77.1, 0.5%)

Market breadth is overwhelmingly positive. Of the 1,938 stocks traded today, 1,340 were on the uptick, and 549 were down.

  • Stocks like Cochin Shipyard, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Rites, and Zydus Lifesciences are in the overbought zone, according to the relative strength index or RSI.

  • HFCL is rising as it enters into an agreement with Qualcomm Technologies to design and develop 5G outdoor small cell products. The company believes its investment in 5G outdoor small cell products will lead to a faster rollout of 5G networks, improve user experience, and efficient utilisation of the 5G spectrum.

  • Sugar stocks Shree Renuka Sugars, EID Parry (India), Balrampur Chini Mills, Dalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries, among others rise by more than 3% in trade today. The sugar industry also trades in the green.

  • Electronics Mart’s Rs 500-crore IPO gets bids for 7.6X of the available 6.25 crore shares on offer on the second day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 7.8X of the available 3.1 crore shares on offer.

  • Sharekhan maintains its 'Buy' rating on APL Apollo Tubes with a target price of Rs 1,275 per share. This indicates an upside of 16.2%. The brokerage believes that the first mover advantage in structural steel tube space and a potential rise in margins will aid revenue growth. It estimates the company's net profit to grow at a CAGR of 33% over FY22-25.

  • Apollo Hospitals Enterpriseacquires a 60% stake in Kerala First Health Services through primary and secondary equity investment for a combined consideration of Rs 26.40 crore. Kerala First Health Services offers ayurveda medical care services under the brand AyurVAID Hospitals.

  • Macrotech Developers’ Q2FY23 bookings rise 57% YoY to Rs 3,148 crore and collections grow by 24% YoY on the back of robust demand. During the quarter, the company took on four new projects with a saleable area of 2.2 million square feet and a gross development value of Rs 3,100 crore. The stock makes it the screener which lists companies with an improving book value per share over the past two years.

  • SpiceJet rises on reports that the airline may get additional funds worth Rs 1,000 crore under the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) in order to manage rising fuel costs and pay pending dues. The Centre raises the ELCGS limit for the aviation industry to Rs 1,500 crore from Rs 400 crore.

  • OPEC+ to cut oil production amid rising interest rates. The output will be cut by 2 million barrels per day.
  • Glenmark Pharmaceuticals rises after announcing the launch of lobeglitazone, an oral drug used for treating type 2 diabetes in adults. The company is the first to launch this drug in India. Oral anti-diabetic drugs in India had annual sales of Rs 11,725 crore for the 12 months ended August 2022.

  • Metal stocks like JSW Steel, Vedanta, Hindalco Industries, Jindal Steel & Power and Steel Authority of India (SAIL) are up by more than 2.5%. All constituents of the BSE Metal index are also trading in the green.

  • ICICI Securities continues to remain positive on the future growth prospects of Phoenix Mills as it retains its ‘Buy’ rating on the company with a target price of Rs 1,638. This implies an upside of 19%. The brokerage believes the company is well-placed to benefit from the revival in consumption across malls in India. This is due to its strong brand recall, market share leadership, robust pipeline of projects, and healthy balance sheet. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 34.6% over FY22-25.

  • India’s September Services PMI falls to 54.3 compared to 57.2 in August as growth in the services industry falls to a six-month low amid inflationary pressures.
  • Larsen & Toubro's arm L&T Construction wins an order worth Rs 1,000-2,500 crore from an automobile company to construct a manufacturing facility in Haryana. The company also wins an order to construct a police reserve campus in Guwahati from the government of Assam.

  • JSW Energy is rising as its arm inks a pact with the state government of Maharashtra for a 960-MW hydropower plant in Raigarh.

  • JP Morgan upgrades its rating on Persistent Systems to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ and raises the target price to Rs 4,100 from Rs 3,900. The brokerage says that having a defensive portfolio (isolation from reaction to broad market movements) and maximum revenue coming in US dollar is a sign of strength.
  • Media stocks Zee Entertainment Enterprises, PVR, Inox Leisure, among others are rising in trade. The broader Nifty Media index rises above 3%.

  • Happiest Minds Technologies rises after the board approves fund raising of Rs 1,400 crore via equity or debt bonds. The company shows up on a screener which lists stocks with strong cash-generating ability from core business.

  • Mahindra Lifespace Developers establishes a joint venture with Actis to develop industrial and logistics real estate facilities across India. The total combined investment in the joint venture over the initial years is estimated to be Rs 2,200 crore.

  • Indian Energy Exchange’s total production volumes fall 8% YoY to 8,160 million units. Supply issues continue because of the high prices of e-auction of coal and gas. However, according to National Load Dispatch Center’s data, energy consumption is up 11% YoY to 127 billion units.

  • Bajaj Finance’s Q2FY23 assets under management rise 30.8% YoY to Rs 2.1 lakh crore as new loans disbursed go up by 7.9% to 68 lakhs. The NBFC’s deposit book also grows 37% YoY in Q2. The company shows up on a screener of stocks with improving cash flow and good durability.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include JSW Energy Ltd. (330.65, 12.75%), Bharat Forge Ltd. (763.90, 8.05%) and Persistent Systems Ltd. (3,552.75, 7.69%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (853.65, -4.79%), Gland Pharma Ltd. (2,074.80, -2.68%) and Lupin Ltd. (723.20, -2.57%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

23 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included JSW Energy Ltd. (330.65, 12.75%), HEG Ltd. (1,186.15, 10.98%) and Sterlite Technologies Ltd. (180.70, 8.95%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (853.65, -4.79%), Sheela Foam Ltd. (2,736.20, -3.13%) and Galaxy Surfactants Ltd. (2,990.45, -0.48%).

Praj Industries Ltd. (443.65, 7.01%) was trading at 10.2 times of weekly average. Mishra Dhatu Nigam Ltd. (229.70, 7.26%) and Graphite India Ltd. (382.10, 5.29%) were trading with volumes 10.0 and 7.0 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

18 stocks took off, crossing 52-week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Cipla Ltd. (1,134.45, -0.89%), EID Parry (India) Ltd. (604.60, 2.54%) and IDFC First Bank Ltd. (54.30, 2.07%).

33 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including JSW Energy Ltd. (330.65, 12.75%) and Bharat Forge Ltd. (763.90, 8.05%). 6 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Lupin Ltd. (723.20, -2.57%) and NLC India Ltd. (69.15, -1.71%).

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The Baseline
04 Oct 2022
Five analyst stock picks from the banking and finance sector
By Suhas Reddy

This week, we look at five analyst picks from the banking and finance sector, which has been in the green over the past quarter.

  1. IndusInd Bank: Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 1,400. This indicates an upside of 19.8%. Analysts at the brokerage believe that “the bank is well positioned to resume on the path of higher credit growth, as it has recovered from past asset quality challenges''. They note that concerns over the bank’s asset quality are fading as its collection efficiencies, liquidity position, and internal costs have been improving for a few quarters. The bank’s credit costs are also expected to fall, and they anticipate a decline of 150 bps annually over FY23-25.

Sharekhan believes IndusInd’s loan disbursement growth will be driven by its vehicle finance, micro-finance and MSME business segments in the coming quarters. Overall, the company’s growth is expected to be broad-based. The analysts are positive about the firm’s foray into new segments such as NRI banking, tractor finance, and affordable housing. They expect the bank’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of  29.5% over FY22-25.

  1. Star Health and Allied Insurance: Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this insurance provider with a target price of Rs 830. This indicates an upside of 19%. Prayesh Jain and Nitin Aggarwal say, “Star Health outlined strong growth opportunities in the health insurance space in India. After the lifting of COVID-related restrictions, there is growing acceptance of the need for hospitalization, leading to larger customer walk-ins wanting to avail health insurance policies without being prospected.” 

According to the analysts, the insurance company is planning to expand its presence in rural India by creating a dedicated vertical for addressing demand from these geographies. Jain and Aggarwal expect Star Health to deliver an 18% gross premium CAGR over FY22-25, led by strong growth in retail health insurance and expect claim ratios to improve due to the pandemic receding. They also remain optimistic about the company due to its healthy earnings growth and limited cyclicality risk.

  1. Bandhan Bank: ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank but reduces its target price to Rs 408 from Rs 414. This implies an upside of 54.9%. Analysts Kunal Shah, Renish Bhuva, and Chintan Shah have cut their target price mainly due to the disruptions in collection efficiency and disbursements in Q1FY23. These disruptions were caused by the Assam floods and the revision in RBI regulations. However, they expect a recovery in the bank’s collection efficiency and disbursements in the coming months. They are constructive on mortgage lending growth as well.

The analysts say the bank is looking to open more than 500 branches in FY23, predominantly outside of its key markets Assam and West Bengal. Given these expansion plans, they expect the bank’s operating expenses to rise but the operating expenses to assets guidance of 2.6-2.7% to be maintained. They also see the firm’s increasing investment in technology as a key positive. They estimate the company’s net profit in FY24 to grow by 24.4% over FY23.

  1. Au Small Finance Bank: Axis Direct retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this small finance bank with a target price of Rs 705, implying an upside of 17.7%. The analysts at the brokerage expect the bank’s strong disbursement growth momentum to continue over the medium term. They see this growth led by vehicle finance, home loans, credit cards, and business banking segments. The bank’s asset quality recovery since the disruptions caused by the pandemic is a key positive. They expect its asset quality to further improve as “the restructured book has been exhibiting strong collection trends and slippages from the pool well below the anticipated levels”.

The analysts also expect the company’s net interest margin to remain stable despite an increasing interest rate environment. However, operating expenses can increase in the medium term as the firm is investing in expansion and technology. Nonetheless, Axis is positive about the small finance bank’s growth prospects given its stable NIMs and low credit costs, and the analysts expect the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 26.3% over FY22-25.

  1. Union Bank of India: Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this public sector bank with a target price of Rs 50, indicating an upside of 14.8%. After attending the Union Bank’s thematic investor day on asset quality, Nitin Aggarwal, Yash Agarwal, and Vinayak Agarwal say, “The bank has segregated and shifted the loan portfolio to dedicated verticals, which focuses on marketing and general servicing.” The bank has opened 250 retail loan points, 125 MSME loan points, mid-corporate branches, and 13 large corporate branches to primarily focus on specific loan segments. 

The analysts note, “The bank saw recoveries of Rs 3,800 crore and is on track to achieve total recoveries of Rs 15,000 crore in FY23.” For FY23, they expect GNPA and NNPA to be at 9% and 3% respectively, and expect the slippages to moderate to less than 2%, with a credit cost of less than 1.7%. 

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

Market closes higher, HDFC Bank's advances rise by 23.5% YoY

Trendlyne Analysis

Indian indices closed sharply higher with the volatility index, India VIX, falling below 20%. The Nifty 50 rose 387 points and closed above the 17,250 mark. European indices followed the global trend and traded higher than Monday’s close. India's exports fall 3.5% to $32.6 billion in September against $33.8 billion in the same month in 2021 with the trade deficit widening to $26.7 billion.

Major Asian indices closed in the green, in line with the US indices, which closed sharply higher on Monday. The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 rose around 2.4% while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 also closed over 2.5% higher. Brent crude oil futures traded higher after rising close to 4% on Monday as OPEC+ considers cutting output of up to 1 million barrels per day at a meeting scheduled on Wednesday.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. Nifty Bank and Nifty Auto closed higher than Tuesday’s close. Nifty IT closed sharply higher, tracking the NASDAQ 100, which closed in the green on Monday.

Nifty 50closed at 17,277.45 (390.1, 2.3%), BSE Sensexclosed at 58,065.47 (1,276.7, 2.3%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 14,965.35 (326.9, 2.2%)

Market breadth is overwhelmingly positive. Of the 1,950 stocks traded today, 1,542 showed gains, and 364 showed losses.

  • Stocks like Rites, Cochin Shipyard, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, and Zydus Lifesciencesare in the overboughtzone, according to the Money Flow Index or MFI.

  • HDFC Bank rises as it reports a rise in advances by 23.5% YoY to Rs 14.8 lakh crore in Q2FY23. Total deposits grow 19% YoY led by retail deposits rising 20.5% YoY. The bank’s CASA ratio falls by 168 bps YoY to 45%.

  • FMCG sales in September fell 9.6% MoM, due to a slowdown in demand from rural areas amid inflationary pressures, according to the data from Bizom.
  • HDFC, Tata Consultancy Services and Hero MotoCorp trade above their third resistance or R3 level as market trades higher.

  • Oil companies plan to not lift the 6-month freeze on the daily price hike of automobile fuel prices in order to recover past losses, according to reports.
  • IndusInd Bank rises after it reports a rise in advances by 18% YoY to Rs 2.5 lakh crore in Q2FY23. The increase in loans is led by the retail segment, according to reports. The bank’s deposits also rise 15% YoY with deposits from retail and small businesses constituting 41% of total deposits.

  • Edelweiss Securities upgrades its rating on Maruti Suzuki to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’. The brokerage says that Maruti Suzuki India will majorly benefit from its new launches, rising demand, and fall in commodity prices.
  • Electronics Mart’s Rs 500-crore IPO, which is entirely a fresh issue, gets bids for 1.7X of the available 6.25 crore shares on offer on the first day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 2X of the available 3.1 crore shares on offer.

  • Banks like IDFC First Bank, IndusInd Bank, Federal Bank, Bank of Baroda, and Bandhan Bank are rising in trade today. The broader sectoral index Nifty Bank is also trading in the green.

  • KRChoksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Sun Pharmaceutical Industries with a target price of Rs 1,114. This implies an upside of 18%. The brokerage believes expects the company’s new product launches, a strong pipeline of generic products, market share gains, and better supply chain management to drive future revenue growth. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 10.6% over FY22-24.

  • Angel One is rising as its client base increases 77.4% YoY to 1.15 crore in September. Growth in average daily turnover (ADTO) of F&Os helps the overall ADTO to increase by 116.4% YoY to Rs 13.7 lakh crore.

  • Larsen & Toubro rises as its power transmission & distribution business wins multiple orders worth Rs 1,000-2,500 crore in India and abroad. The company will work on building a 765kV transmission line in Gujarat and upgrade a distribution system in North-East India. The company won a repeat order to build 132 kV sub-stations in UAE and a 380 kV overhead line in Saudi Arabia.

  • Easy Trip Planners is rising as its board of directors will meet on Monday to consider a proposal for increasing the authorised share capital, bonus issue of shares, and a stock split.

  • Metal stocks like Hindalco Industries,APL Apollo Tubes, JSW Steel, among others are rising in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Metal index are trading in the green.

  • Vedanta is rising as its total aluminium production rises 2% YoY to 5.8 lakh tonnes in Q2FY23. Mined metal production rises 3% to 2.5 lakh tonnes. The company features in the screener with companies effectively using its capital to generate profit.

  • India’s September merchandise exports decline 3.5% to $32.6 billion amid a fall in demand for Indian goods due to global recession fears. India’s imports stand at $59.3 billion and the trade deficit in September is $22.7 billion.
  • Dilip Buildcon rises as its joint venture, RBL-DBL, receives a letter of acceptance from the Gujarat Metro Rail Corp. It pertains to the construction of a 10.6 km elevated viaduct and 11 metro stations worth Rs 1,061 crore for the Surat metro rail project.

  • Electronics Mart raises Rs 150 crore from anchor investors ahead of its IPO, which opens for subscription today. The company has allotted 2.5 crore equity shares at a price of Rs 59 per share to the anchor investors. The investors include Nippon Life India, Pinebridge Global Funds, Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund, Tata Mutual Fund, Whiteoak Capital, Abakkus Emerging Opportunities Fund, and Societe Generale.

  • Avenue Supermarts’ (Dmart) standalone revenue rises 35.8% YoY to Rs 10,384.6 crore in Q2FY23 on improved demand. Q2FY23 standalone revenue is 5.9% higher than the revenue of Q1FY23. The company shows up on a screener which lists stocks with quarterly growth in net profit and profit margin.

  • KEC International wins new orders worth Rs 1,407 crore across business verticals like transmission and distribution, railways, civil construction, and cables. The project pertains to the setting up of transmission lines in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The company shows up on a screener which lists stocks with an improving book value per share over the past two years.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. (200.40, 11.49%), NHPC Ltd. (38.40, 8.17%) and IDFC First Bank Ltd. (53.20, 7.80%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd. (484.15, -1.90%), Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. (208.45, -1.11%) and Supreme Industries Ltd. (2,069.35, -1.08%).

Volume Rockets

14 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Angel One Ltd. (1,532.15, 12.35%), Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. (200.40, 11.49%) and IDFC First Bank Ltd. (53.20, 7.80%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. (223.30, -1.76%) and Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Healthcare Ltd. (13,939.75, -0.44%).

Bank of Maharashtra (18.00, 2.56%) was trading at 9.3 times of weekly average. Godfrey Phillips India Ltd. (1,197.35, 5.47%) and Easy Trip Planners Ltd. (409.30, 6.89%) were trading with volumes 5.8 and 5.6 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

15 stocks took off, crossing 52-week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Bharti Airtel Ltd. (808.70, 0.67%), Blue Dart Express Ltd. (9,369.45, 4.07%) and Cipla Ltd. (1,144.65, 1.23%).

43 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Angel One Ltd. (1,532.15, 12.35%) and L&T Finance Holdings Ltd. (77.00, 6.43%). 2 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including PVR Ltd. (1,739.60, -0.94%) and Shriram City Union Finance Ltd. (1,747.50, 3.37%).

Market closes lower, Eicher Motors's September total wholesales rise 9.2% YoY

Trendlyne Analysis

Indian indices closed in the red with the volatility index, India VIX, rising over 21%. The Nifty 50 lost over 200 points and closed below the 16,900 mark. European indices traded lower as Credit Suisse fell close to 8% in early trade after its CEO asked investors for 100 days to deliver a new turnaround strategy. Major Asian indices closed in the red, in line with the US indices, which closed lower on Friday. The S&P 500 extended its losses and posted its third-worst performance in the first nine months of a year since 1931. The Dow Jones and the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 lost over 1.7% and closed in the red on Friday. Brent crude oil traded sharply higher as OPEC+ considered cutting output of up to 1 million barrels per day at a meeting scheduled on Wednesday.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the red, following the benchmark index. Nifty Pharma bucked the market trend and closed higher than Friday’s level. Nifty IT closed in the red, taking cues from the NASDAQ 100, which closed 1.7% lower on Friday.

Nifty 50closed at 16,876.00 (-218.4, -1.3%), BSE Sensexclosed at 56,788.81 (-638.1, -1.1%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 14,632.15 (-197.2, -1.3%)

Market breadth is highly negative. Of the 1,961 stocks traded today, 616 were gainers and 1,292 were losers.

  • Indraprastha Gassees a short build-up in its October 27 future series as its open interest rises 12% with put to call ratio of 0.4.

  • Ciplaand Vedant Fashionshit their all-time highs of Rs 1,144.9 and Rs 1,475, respectively. Both stocks rise for two consecutive sessions.

  • Kajaria Ceramics to make an investment of upto Rs 125 crore to set up a manufacturing facility in Nepal on a joint venture basis. The joint venture partner Ramesh Corp will invest Rs 125 crore in the facility.

  • Hotel stocks like Indian Hotels Co, EIH, Chalet Hotels, Oriental Hotels, among others are up by more than 2% in trade today. The hotels industry is also rising in trade today.

  • Eicher Motors is falling despite a 9.2% YoY rise in September's total wholesales to 6,631 units from its joint venture with Volvo, its exports fall 35.8% YoY. The company's subsidiary Royal Enfield's total wholesales rise 145% to 82,097 units.

  • Triveni Turbine rises as Anand Rathi initiates coverage on the stock with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 285, according to reports. The brokerage believes the company’s strong order book, capacity expansion, and industry-leading market share will aid growth in the coming quarters.

  • Eicher Motors, Delhivery, and Suzlon Energy trade below their third support or S3 level as market trades lower.

  • FSN E-Commerce Ventures' (Nykaa) board recommends bonus issue of five fully paid-up equity shares for every one fully paid-up equity share held by the shareholders, subject to shareholders’ approval.

  • Federal Bank's Q2FY23 total deposits rise by 10% YoY to Rs 1.9 lakh crore and gross advances rise by 19.4% YoY to Rs 1.6 lakh crore. The bank's CASA deposits rise 10.7% YoY to Rs 68,873 crore. This bank shows up on the screener that lists companies with increasing profits for four consecutive quarters.

  • Pharmaceutical companies like Lupin, Zydus Lifesciences, Aurobindo Pharma, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, and Granules India are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index Nifty Pharma is also trading in the green.

  • Lupin is rising as it receives establishment inspection report (EIR) from the US FDA for its manufacturing facility in Ankleshwar, Gujarat. An EIR is issued after an inspection is completed without the need of observations. Inspection of the facility was conducted from August 16-19.

  • Coal India’s production for September rises 12.3% YoY to 45.7 MT. Its supply to the power sector increases by 7% YoY on rising demand from thermal power plants. Coal India’s production in H1FY23 rises 20% and its supply to power plants grows 17% compared to the same period last year.

  • Tata Motors is falling despite a 44% YoY rise in total domestic wholesales to 80,633 units in September. The passenger vehicle wholesales increases 85% YoY but the commercial vehicle (CV) wholesales rise marginally by 4% YoY due to a 36% fall in CV exports.

  • Axis Direct remains optimistic about the future growth prospects of JK Lakshmi Cements as it retains its ‘Buy’ rating on the company with a target price of Rs 680. This indicates an upside of 18%. The brokerage believes the company will benefit from the expected fall in commodity prices and a rise in demand given its production capacity plans, focus on cost optimisation, and higher realisation. It expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 13% over FY22-24.

  • India’s September Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) falls to 55.42 compared to 56.2 in August, as India’s factory growth declines to a three-month low.
  • Zydus Lifesciences is rising as it receives the final approval from the US Food & Drug Administration and a 180-day shared exclusivity for mirabegron extended-release tablets. The drug is used to treat symptoms of overactive bladder. It had annual sales of $ 2.42 billion (approximately Rs 19,792.1 crore) in the US for the 12 months ended August 2022.

  • The Centre reduces windfall tax on locally produced crude oil to Rs 8,000 per tonne from Rs 10,500 per tonne earlier. It also removes the tax on the export of aviation turbine fuel and halves export duties on diesel to Rs 5 per litre.
  • Telecommunication stocks like ITI, HFCL, Sterlite Technologies among others are rising in trade. The broader telecommunication equipment sector rises above 3%

  • Maruti Suzuki is falling despite its domestic passenger vehicle wholesales surging by 135.1% YoY to 1.48 lakh units. The rise in wholesales comes on the back of new product launches, improvement in the supply of semiconductor chips, and the onset of the festive season.

  • Konark Trust buys a 0.5% stake in Aptus Value Housing Finance India worth Rs 71.3 crore on Friday.

  • Hero MotoCorp’s September wholesales fall 1.9% YoY to 5.1 lakh units as motorcycle sales fall 1.8%. However, the company expects demand to rise because of the ongoing festive season. It also expects normal monsoons to improve farm activity and sales in rural areas.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Lupin Ltd. (722.10, 6.21%),  Zydus Lifesciences Ltd. (409.35, 5.80%) and Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (535.20, 4.82%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Adani Enterprises Ltd. (3,157.30, -8.64%), Adani Green Energy Ltd. (2,074.05, -8.26%) and Adani Total Gas Ltd. (3,100.80, -7.16%).

Volume Shockers

19 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Cochin Shipyard Ltd. (485.40, 10.07%), Triveni Turbine Ltd. (255.50, 8.77%) and VIP Industries Ltd. (714.65, 7.38%).

Top high volume loser on BSE was Eicher Motors Ltd. (3,463.35, -5.67%).

Avanti Feeds Ltd. (486.95, 3.97%) was trading at 9.3 times of weekly average. Ajanta Pharma Ltd. (1,286.90, 1.14%) and Finolex Industries Ltd. (137.80, 0.88%) were trading with volumes 9.2 and 7.3 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

14 stocks hit their52-week highs, while 3 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52-week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Bharti Airtel Ltd. (803.35, 0.43%), Cipla Ltd. (1,130.75, 1.42%) and Indian Hotels Company Ltd. (336.85, 1.55%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd. (2,921.75, -2.04%) and Birlasoft Ltd. (278.90, -1.26%).

26 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including FDC Ltd. (275.80, 4.51%) and Avanti Feeds Ltd. (486.95, 3.97%). 21 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Adani Green Energy Ltd. (2,074.05, -8.26%) and Mahanagar Gas Ltd. (802.10, -3.61%).

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The Baseline
01 Oct 2022
Festival season boosts travel, jewelry, paint sectors; stocks flying high in a volatile market
By Deeksha Janiani

For a time, it was good: optimistic growth predictions for India helped drive a market rally over the past three months. But the world is becoming sharply volatile, and multiple global factors are now rocking the boat. Russia's gas cutoff has caused an energy crisis in Europe, threatening a deep recession, and US Fed Reserve Chairman Jay Powell announced an interest rate hike of 75 bps on September 21.

Higher US interest rates have made US treasury assets more attractive, and foreign investors renewed selling Indian equities. The "fear index" Nifty Vix is back up to June levels.  

However amid this gloom, the Indian consumer story is a bright promise. Indians are preparing for get-togethers and celebrations, with big spending plans this festive season.

In this week’s Analyticks:

  • Festive plans cheer travel, home improvement and jewellery sectors
  • Screener: These stocks are holding steady, with high-momentum and strong EPS growth predicted in FY23

Let’s get into it.


The great Indian festival season is here: What’s in store for tourism, home improvement and jewellery?

The Indian festive season kick-started with the arrival of Ganesh Chaturthi and Onam in August-end. Now, it’s in full swing with the onset of Navratri. For the first time in two years, people will be able to gather for the Garba Utsav without restrictions - no mandatory masking, no one checking your Covid certificate at the door, no limits on the number of people.

Indians are itching to get into their party clothes, and are ready to loosen their purse strings. According to a survey undertaken by LocalCircles, consumer spending during the festive season is expected to hit $32 billion this year, higher than both 2020 and 2021. Although this is below the pre-Covid level (2019) of $37 billion, this will boost India Inc in an otherwise inflationary and tough global environment. 

24% of respondents in this survey plan to spend on travel and tourism in this season - the highest among all categories. Jewellers and home improvement players will also see the benefit of higher consumer spends. 

Hotels and Tourism sizzle, as consumer segments come alive

When the worst of the pandemic got over in March 2022, short-haul travel became the top priority for millennials. Businesses also restarted events and conferences as employees were back in offices. 

By the summer of ’22, there was high traction visible across both leisure and corporate travel segments. The occupancy rates and revenue per available room of the hospitality sector crossed pre-pandemic levels in Q1FY23 thanks to the demand rebound in metros. 

According to the management of Indian Hotels, robust demand especially in the corporate segment continued in July and August, despite the seasonal weakness. Now, with consumers willing to spend more on travel, the demand outlook from September to November also looks strong. 

Traveller mix shifts towards richer Indians

Overall festive spends this year are being driven by higher income groups, as they saved a lot of money in the work-from-home era, according to LocalCircles.

This may also be true for the travel sector.

Let’s consider some hard facts here: the traveller mix is changing. In Q1FY23, the premium chains of Indian Hotels like ‘SeleQtions’ and ‘Vivanta’ saw over20% growth in occupancies while mid-segment chains like ‘Ginger’ fell 11% compared to pre-covid levels.

The overall occupancy level of a mid-segment hotel chain like Lemon Tree has been consistently lower than that of premium and luxury players like Indian Hotels and EIH in the past three quarters. Clearly, higher price inflation has impacted the discretionary spends of middle-income groups, while the affluent class is relatively unaffected. 

Foreign travellers will also drive demand for hospitality and recreational sectors in H2FY23. According to a RateGainreport, foreign tourist arrivals in Delhi and Mumbai are likely to see double-digit MoM growth between September and November owing to the festivities and a favourable climate in India. 

These demand trends bode well for an online travel agent like Easy Trip Planners. This travel startup has showcased consistent profitability in the past 10 quarters despite the pandemic. This was achieved on the strength of its ‘no convenience fee’ model and easy refunds policy. The company now looks to double its gross booking revenue to Rs 6,500-7,000 crore in FY23 and makes a good proxy play in the travel sector. 

Enthused by the current travel boom, hotel chains have drawn up ambitious expansion plans. Indian Hotels looks to add 18 hotels in its portfolio this year while Lemon Tree seeks to complete a major hotel project in Mumbai. 

According to Trendlyne Forecaster’s consensus estimates, annual revenues of the top three listed hotels will jump by over 60% YoY in FY23 with all of them returning to profitability. 

Jewellery makers sparkle on lower gold prices, healthy demand

Women customers have also made a comeback - retail sales of jewellery have grown in double-digits in the past four months, backed by the correction in gold prices. This trend is likely to continue in the coming months as the peak festive season has begun, which will be followed by the wedding season. According to C K Venkataraman, Managing Director at Titan, the affluent class has amassed a lot of wealth in the pandemic years and are now ready to spend on high value items.

The period from Navratri upto Diwali is an auspicious period to buy jewellery in India. In order to leverage this, Tanishq, a brand owned by Titan, has launchednew collections like ‘Zoya’, ‘Aishani’, 'Chozha' and ‘Alekhya’. This is also in line with the company’s strategy to cater to more regional tastes to capture higher market share. 

Kalyan Jewellers aims to spend Rs 250 to 300 crore to open 10 stores across Delhi, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa and Chhattisgarh by this Diwali. Meanwhile, Titan aims to launch 50 Tanishq stores in FY23 to meet rising demand. The revenue of both these players is set to jump over 20% in FY23 with profits rising faster. 

Paint companies are all set for a 'double delight' 

Another major beneficiary of this festive season will be the home improvement sector, as people repaint and refurbish their houses for Laxmi Pooja. Paint makers like Asian Paints and Berger Paints already witnessed robust sales volumes in Q1FY23, backed by premium and luxury products. Such strong demand trends will continueinto Q2FY23 with the early onset of Navratri. 

Demand growth is coming with lower costs - a double delight for paint companies. Pressure on the gross margins of these companies have eased up thanks to the 27% correction in crude oil prices since May 2022. Analysts predict oil prices will zoom back up towards the end of the year as China comes out of lockdowns, but Q3FY23 may still see the double benefit of low input costs and high demand. This is why analysts predict these companies’ net profit rising more than their revenues in FY23.

However, Kajaria Ceramicsis likely to suffer margin compression on account of higher natural gas prices. Nevertheless, the tile-maker is positive on the demand front and is putting up new capacities in the sanitaryware and bathware segments. 

Hopes are high for a bumper festive season across consumer facing sectors in India. The promise is clear: let's see which companies are able to make the most of it. 


Screener: Stocks flying high in a volatile market, with medium to high momentum score and rising EPS forecasts

With the result season just around the corner, we take a look at stocks which have a medium to high momentum score, with high EPS growth forecasts. This screener consists of 34 companies within the Nifty 500 index. The companies belong to industries like telecom services, realty, non-alcoholic beverages, two-wheelers among others.

Major stocks featured in the screener are Bharti Airtel,Phoenix Mills, Adani Enterprises, Varun Beverages and Eicher Motors. Bharti Airtel has the highest annual EPS growth forecast of 237%. According to Prabhudas Lilladher, the telecom company’s customer focused strategies along with digital investments has helped increase revenue and subscriber market share. It has a Trendlyne momentum score of 60.7, indicating that it has high buying interest and improving sentiment.

The second highest annual EPS growth forecast is for Phoenix Mills. The company saw a 316% rise in its annual EPS in FY22. According toICICI Securities, the realty player has a strong pipeline of projects which will aid its bottomline growth. It has a Trendlyne momentum score of 61.8.

Analysts see Eicher Motors clocking an EPS growth of over 65% in FY23. Axis Securitiesbelieves that lower commodity prices, improving demand and easing of supply-side constraints will aid its earnings growth. 

Varun Beverages has a healthy EPS growth estimate of 88% for FY23. The demand outlook for this Pepsico franchise is strong given that its juices, energy drink and dairy segments are performing well,and it is expanding into newer markets.

You can find some popular screeners here.