• Trendlyne logo
  • Markets
  • Alerts
  • F&O
  • MF
  • Reports
  • Screeners
  • Subscribe
  • Superstars
  • Portfolio
  • Watchlist
  • Insider Trades
  • Results
  • Data Downloader
  • Events Calendar
  • What's New
  • Explore
  • FAQs
  • Widgets
More
    Search stocks
    IND USA
    IND
    IND
    IND
    USA
    • Stocks
    • Futures & Options
    • Mutual Funds
    • News
    • Fundamentals
    • Reports
    • Corporate Actions
    • Alerts
    • Shareholding

    The Baseline

    12
    Following
    368
    Stocks Tracked
    49
    Sectors & Interests
    Follow
    Load latest
    logo
    The Baseline
    15 Jan 2025
    A turnaround for Indian pharma in the US | Screener: High momentum pharma stocks

    A turnaround for Indian pharma in the US | Screener: High momentum pharma stocks

    By Tejas MD

    The fireworks were soggy for Indian markets in the new year. In the first 15 days of 2025, the Nifty 50 slipped into correction territory, down over 10% from its highs, while the Indian rupee tumbled to a record low, breaching 86 against the US dollar.

    According to Bloomberg, the mood will be muted this earnings season as well, as Q3FY25 results could bring a flurry of downgrades.

    Pictet Asset Management portfolio manager Prashant Kothari, who oversees about $1 billion in an Indian equity fund, says, “We have had very good economic expansion in India, but there may be clouds on the horizon.” He adds that opportunities in India "are not juicy."

    But falling valuations may not be a bad thing, if you know where to look. Warren Buffett loved buying great stocks at discount valuations, and famously said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." 

    One defensive sector that gets interesting in tough times is pharma. Since 2005, the Nifty 50 has delivered an annual negative return three times, but the Nifty Pharma index has outperformed the benchmark index all three times. 

    So which stocks are looking especially strong ahead of Q3FY25 results? Let’s dive in. 

    In this week’s Analyticks,

    • Indian pharma companies are adapting - and winning - in a changing US market
    • Screener: Pharma stocks with high momentum and durability scores, with rising operating profit margin in Q2

    US market recovery gives Indian pharma a boost

    Indian drug makers have seen booms and busts in the past 15 years, due to their heavy reliance on the US generics business. 

    The problem with generics? A generic drug contains the same chemical substance as one originally protected by patents. Its main appeal is its lower price.

    So competition in the generic drug market is fierce. A single generic option usually causes a 40% fall in the drug's prices, and five to six generic players cause a 90% reduction. As a result, this segment has lower margins, and no product differentiation to bank on. 

    Trendlyne’s share price history data shows that Nifty Pharma outperformed the Nifty 50 from 2010 to 2016. This was due to a sharp uptick in US generics sales, which Indian players benefitted from by exporting low-cost generic drugs to the US. 

    Nifty Pharma outperforms the Nifty 50 in nine out of past 15 years

    But the easy generics money soon ran out, and a slowdown took hold in 2016. US generics became less profitable due to stricter regulations by the US FDA. The regulator also encouraged more generics competition. Nifty Pharma posted negative returns from 2016 to 2019.

    Post-Covid, Indian pharma companies pivoted towards specialty and complex generics segments in the US to beat the slowdown in generics sales. Industry leaders like Sun Pharma, Cipla, and Dr Reddy’s embraced this strategy.

    This pivot led to Nifty Pharma's sharp rise of 34% in 2023, and 39% in 2024. Relatively smooth USFDA inspections have also contributed to this, allowing Indian drug makers to speed up product launches and enhance profitability in the competitive US market.

    However, not all companies enjoyed similar success. Firms like Aurobindo Pharma and Alkem Labs attempted to diversify into specialty injectables and biosimilars but faced challenges. Weak demand and persistent supply chain issues have undermined their efforts, limiting revenue growth.

    India vs US: Where is pharma's focus? 

    Post-COVID, Indian companies have switched away from the broad generics space in the US, which had high competition, to complex generics (Cipla, Dr Reddy’s), specialty products (Sun Pharma), and peptides. 

    Abhay Gandhi, Sun Pharma's CEO (North America Business), said in the Q2FY25 earnings call, “The US specialty business has grown YoY. The underlying prescription trends for the specialty business are strong.” 

    This diversification strategy has fueled two growth engines - India and the US. In addition, the number of adverse classification outcomes from US FDA inspections fell in 2024 after a sharp uptick in 2019. 

    USFDA’s red flags decrease in 2024

    In 2024, 206 USFDA inspections were conducted, of which only 14 (6.6%) resulted in official action (OAI). The OAI percentage has fallen from 11% in 2019. An OAI from the USFDA greatly impacts the profitability and product launch timeline for drugmakers. 

    US generics remain an important vertical. Several bestseller drugs are expected to go off-patent in the US, increasing the potential for generic alternatives. This could help offset any lower-than-expected India sales. The Indian pharmaceutical market's growth moderated to 7% in 2024. This was primarily due to a lack of price hikes on the National List of Essential Medicines products and a regulatory ban on 156 fixed-dose combination drugs. 

    The US market, on the other hand, has picked up in the last few quarters after a period of underperformance. This was helped by strong sales of the complex generic cancer drug Revlimid (lenalidomide). 

    In the generics space, companies must launch new complex generics to find the next blockbuster, which remains a concern. 

    Pharma companies expected to post strong numbers in Q3

    According to a Q3 result preview report by KR Choksey, pharma companies’ revenue is expected to grow 10.8% YoY, led by strong US business, and domestic growth.

    The EBITDA margin is expected to expand 198 bps YoY, led by a favorable product mix and increased focus on complex products. Falling freight and raw material costs are also expected to help margins. The average price of raw materials has fallen around 25% YoY in Q3FY25 to $114/Kg. 

    A diverse set of companies, from API manufacturers to branded generics manufacturers, are in the list of players expected to post positive revenue and net profit growth in Q3. 

    Divi’s Labs expected to post high revenue and net profit growth

    Mankind Pharma depends mainly on Indian market growth (over 90% of revenue share), and its Q3FY25 revenue and net profit are set to increase for the eighth quarter. Its outperformance in market growth with IPM is expected to continue in the chronic segment in Q3. 

    Companies like Sun Pharma and Dr Reddy’s get a notable portion of their revenues from the US. While specialty products should drive revenue growth for Sun Pharma, new product launches remain key for Dr Reddy’s. 

    Divi’s Labs and Lupin saw a sharp turnaround in the past two years. Divi’s Labs is benefitting from lower raw material prices and high demand in the custom synthesis segment. 

    When it comes to Trendlyne’s DVM scores, these pharma companies boast high durability scores. 

    Pharma companies have medium momentum scores despite a weak quarter

    Despite a weak quarter, these pharma companies’ momentum scores remain in the ‘Medium’ category. Zydus Lifesciences has the highest DVM score. It has good durability, medium valuation, and momentum scores, making it a ‘Mid-range Performer.’ 


    Screener: Pharma stocks with high momentum and durability with rising operating profit margin in Q2

    Pharma stocks with high momentum scores and rising operating margins

    As we enter the results season, we look at stocks from the pharmaceutical industry with good momentum and durability with rising operating profit margin growth in Q2FY25. This screener shows pharmaceutical stocks with high Trendlyne momentum and durability scores with rising operating profit margins in Q2FY25.

    Major stocks that feature in the screener are Procter & Gamble Health, Lupin, Granules India, Ipca Laboratories, Mankind Pharma, Orchid Pharma, Innova Captab, and Caplin Point Laboratories. 

    Lupin features in the screener with a good Trendlyne momentum score of 57 and a growth of 5.4 percentage points YoY in operating profit margin in Q2FY25. This pharma stock has a high momentum score, helped by an 18.7% rise in stock price over the past six months. The company’s operating margins improved due to lower freight costs, combined with a better mix of high-margin products, helped by new product launches like Mirabegron in the US and Luforbec in the UK.

    Ipca Laboratories also appears in the screener after its operating profit margin grew by 3 percentage points YoY to 18.8% in Q2FY25. Operating margin improved, led by reduced raw material costs and a 25-30% cost reduction in active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) processes at its subsidiary, Unichem Laboratories. It also has a good Trendlyne Momentum score of 59, driven by a 28.7% surge in its stock price over the past six months.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

    Signing off this week,

    The Trendlyne Team

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    10 Jan 2025, 04:33PM
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 10, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 10, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Titan Company:

    This gems and jewellery major has risen by 1.5% over the past week, outperforming its industry by 4.1%. This comes after Titan reported a 24% YoY growth in revenue in its Q3FY25 business update.

    The jewellery segment (which contributes over 87% of the total revenue) grew by 25% YoY, driven by strong festive demand. Plain gold jewellery sales jumped 24% YoY due to robust festive and wedding purchases over October-December despite higher gold prices, while gold coin sales surged 48% YoY.

    Analysts believe that jewellery consumption remained strong due to rising gold prices, more auspicious days, and a shift from unorganised to organised trade after a 900 bps gold import duty cut to 6% (during the FY25 Union Budget). The company’s peer Kalyan Jewellers has also reported healthy revenue growth in Q3FY25, with a 39% YoY rise. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, Titan’s revenue is expected to grow by 16.1% YoY in Q3FY25.

    Meanwhile, the company added 69 stores on a net basis during the quarter, taking its retail store count to 3,240. Titan has a market share of 8% in the Indian jewellery market and has been working on expanding its retail footprint. It also aims to triple volumes in emerging segments like wearables, women’s bags and ethnic wear by FY27. It opened an exclusive store for its bags and accessories brand, IRTH, in Chennai, as part of its expansion plans in South India. Commenting on this, Manish Gupta, CEO of the Fragrances and Fashion Accessories Division, said, “We aim to achieve Rs 1,000 crore in revenue by FY26-27 from our IRTH and Fastrack bags divisions”.

    InCred Equities gives an ‘Add’ rating on Titan Co with a target price of Rs 3,600. The brokerage remains positive on the company but expects margin pressures from higher gold prices and diamond price volatility. It expects EBITDA margins to contract by 105 bps YoY to 10% in Q3FY25.

    2. Manappuram Finance:

    This gold loan company’s share price jumped over 6% before paring its gains amid profit booking by investors. This surge followed the company’s announcement that the RBI had lifted its ban on new loans and disbursements by its subsidiary, Asirvad Micro Finance. The RBI had slapped this ban on Asirvad over two months ago on October 22, after it found “material supervisory concerns and non-compliance issues”.

    Manappuram’s stock fell by over 13% after the ban was imposed and made a 52-week low in the days that followed. The removal of this ban is a significant development for the company, as its micro-finance business contributes around 30% to its total revenue. The other 70% of the company’s revenue comes from gold loans. 

    The company's consolidated AUM (assets under management) jumped by 17.4% on a YoY basis in Q2. The gold loan segment has experienced remarkable growth over the past year, driven by higher-than-normal interest rates on unsecured loans. Bloomberg columnist Andy Mukherjee, writes that loans against gold jewellery have risen in India by 56.2% annually. In Q3, Forecaster expects revenue growth for Manappuram of 14.2%, with net profit growth of 8% on a YoY basis.

    V P Nandakumar, MD and CEO, said, “The micro-finance sector is facing (collection-related) challenges in certain geographies.” Due to this, the company added around 5,000 new loan officers in Q2. He also said that he expects net interest margins to fall as operating expenses rise.

    Motilal Oswal retains a 'Hold' rating on the stock with an upgraded target price of Rs 205. The brokerage anticipates a gradual recovery in Asirvad’s microfinance (MFI) and gold loan segments. However, it predicts that credit costs will remain high over the next two to three quarters due to industry-wide pressures. Currently, the stock is in the PE Buy Zone, trading at a relatively cheaper valuation than its historical PE.

    3. Dabur India:

    ThisFMCG producer declined 3.8% on January 6 following theannouncement of its Q3FY25 business update. Dabur India expects low single-digit (~1-5%) revenue growth due to weak demand in segments like Health Care, impacted by a delayed winter, and in Beverages, as consumersshift from non-carbonated to carbonated drinks. Higher-priced juices are seeing the biggest impact.

    Management noted that rural demand for FMCG outpaced urban demand, contributing around 4-8% growth in the home & personal care (HPC) segment. Dabur expects its culinary brands to deliver double-digit growth, supported by brands like 'Homemade Cooking Pastes & Purees' and 'Badshah Spices.'

    InQ2FY25, the company reported a revenue decline of 5.5% YoY to Rs 3,028.6 crore, with net profit falling 17.5% YoY to Rs 425 crore. This underperformance was due to heavy rainfall, floods, and high food inflation, which slowed down consumption. Dabur Indiareduced the inventory days of its general trade partners from 30 days to 21 days in Q2, to tackle challenges from alternative channels like modern trade, e-commerce, and quick commerce. The company aimed to reduce this by 19 days by the end of December ‘24. According toTrendlyne’s Forecaster estimates, the company’s revenue is expected to grow by 5.8% YoY in Q3FY25. 

    Mohit Malhotra, CEO of Dabur India,said, “We expect the Home Care portfolio to grow in double digits going forward in the future, taking up the portfolio from Rs 700 crore to around Rs 1,000 crore in 2 to 3 years.” To achieve this, Dabur is premiumizing and expanding its home care range, introducing Odonil (room air freshener) in gel pockets, diffusers, and premium air fresheners, and launching Odomos (mosquito repellent) in a liquid vaporizer format. The recentacquisition of hair oil brand Sesa marks Dabur’s entry into the premium Ayurvedic hair oil market, in line with its strategy to diversify and expand.

    Still, analysts are pessimistic. Following the business update, Citimaintained its ‘sell’ rating on Dabur India and lowered its target price to Rs 510. The brokerage expects a 2.5% YoY revenue growth in Q3FY25, citing weak performance in healthcare and beverages, rising costs, and shifting consumer preferences as key challenges.

    4. Zydus Lifesciences:

    This pharma company's stock rose by 1.4% over the past week after it signed an agreement with CVS Caremark, a US healthcare solutions provider, on January 7. The agreement also adds the ZituvioTM range - Sitagliptin and combination tablets - to CVS' list of medicines for type 2 diabetes treatment. 

    On the same day, the US FDA accepted the New Drug Application (NDA) for CUTX-101, a potential treatment for Menkes disease, and assigned it priority review. The application was filed by Sentynl Therapeutics, the US subsidiary of Zydus. Menkes disease is a rare pediatric condition with no FDA-approved treatment, and often leads to death in infants. The CUTX-101 clinical trials showed promising results, with early-treated patients having an 80% lower death risk. The Menkes disease market, valued at approximately $8 million at the end of 2023, is expected to grow 5.9% annually through 2034.

    Following the news, Nomura upgraded Zydus Life to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ and raised its price target to Rs 1,140, indicating an upside of 13.5%. The brokerage also increased earnings estimates due to higher contributions from the Sitagliptin drug, used to regulate high blood sugar. They believe the drug’s market opportunity, estimated between $300-500 million, could provide Zydus with an annual revenue boost of $100-150 million. However, they anticipate a 5% decline in US revenues in FY26.

    In Q2FY25, the company’s revenue increased 19.9% YoY to Rs 5,237 crore, driven by improvements in the US formulation (up 30%) and Indian formulation (up 9%). Its net profit rose 20.5% YoY to Rs 865.8 crore during the quarter. For Q3FY25, Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates profit to surge 14.9% YoY, with a revenue growth of 17.8%.

    Managing Director Sharvil Patel mentioned that Zydus is focusing on expanding its portfolio in the US by targeting high-value products that offer better returns and margins. This involves launching limited-competition products and exploring in-licensing opportunities for niche, high-value products. He added, “We anticipate topline growth in the high teens (15-17%) and maintain our FY25 margin guidance of 27%, with an expected improvement of 100-150 basis points over last year.”

    5. Reliance Industries:

    This refineries & petro-products company has declined by over 4% in the past month. The company has reportedly raised $3 billion (approximately Rs 24,900 crore) from a consortium of 11 banks, marking its largest borrowing deal in nearly two years. The five-year loan, finalized last month, was set at 120 bps above the three-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), with $450 million (around Rs 3,700 crore) denominated in Japanese yen. It is also reported that the company is gearing up for substantial loan repayments in 2025.

    The company posted a nominal 0.3% YoY increase in revenue for Q2FY25. However, its net profit declined by 4.8% to Rs 16,563 crore due to a decline in EBIT of the Oil-to-Chemical(O2C) segment. The Trendlyne Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue to rise by 2.9% and the net profit to rise by 4.8% Q3FY25. Morgan Stanley expects the company's refining segment to grow on the back of increasing global demand. It appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds have increased holdings in the past month.

    Mukesh Ambani, chairman & MD of the company, said, “Jio and Retail are expected to double their revenues and EBITDA in the next 3-4 years. I see immense growth potential in our media business. I foresee our New Energy business becoming as big and profitable over the next 5-7 years, as our O2C business which we had built over the past 40 years.” 

    Global brokerage firm Jefferies points out that while Reliance lagged behind the Nifty 50 index by 15% in 2024, primarily due to concerns about its retail business's medium-term growth and weak earnings growth for the year, the company’s retail segment is expected to see mid-teen growth going forward. Additionally, improved profitability is anticipated in the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) segment by FY26. Jefferies also notes the potential initial public offering (IPO) of Reliance Jio, the company’s telecom arm in FY26.

    Geojit has maintained Reliance Industries at a ‘Buy’ rating as it expects the recent tariff hikes and ongoing technology advancements to strengthen Jio's customer base, supporting its growth momentum. The brokerage also says that although the recent tariff hikes led to some SIM consolidation and a higher churn rate, the management expects the full impact of the hikes to be reflected in the earnings over the next 2-3 quarters. With a target price of Rs 1,516, the stock has a potential upside of over 22%.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    09 Jan 2025, 04:48PM
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 09, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 09, 2025

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Radico Khaitan:

    Sharekhan retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this breweries and distilleries company with a target price of Rs 2,996. This indicates an upside potential of 25.4%. Radico Khaitan (RKL) has been focusing on premiumisation, and aims for 15-18% volume growth in the prestige & above (P&A) category for FY25. This segment has delivered 15 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. The P&A portfolio’s contribution to Indian-made foreign liquor sales increased from 28% in FY19 to 46% in FY24 and is expected to reach 56% by FY27.

    The company is implementing cost-optimisation measures such as backward integration with the Sitapur distillery and packaging shifts from glass to plastic bottles in the regular segment. These initiatives are expected to improve operating profit margins (OPM) by 125-150 bps annually, with a target to achieve late-teens OPM within three years.

    The analysts mention that with no major capex planned for the next 6-7 years, RKL aims to repay most of its Rs 745 crore debt by FY27. They expect a CAGR of 16.6% in revenue and 29.6% in net profit over FY25-27.

    2. Signatureglobal (India):

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this NCR-based realty company with a target price of Rs 2,000. This indicates an upside potential of 52.8%. The company is expected to achieve a 35% CAGR in pre-sales from FY25-27, driven by its shift from affordable housing to the mid-luxury segment. Since 2014, the company has sold over 32,000 units (~25 million square feet) and achieved a 63% CAGR in pre-sales from FY21-24.

    Analyst Abhishek Lodhiya notes that the company has a pipeline of 25.4 million square feet (msf), including projects in Gurugram's high-demand markets like South Peripheral Road and Dwarka Express Highway. The company is executing approximately 51msf of projects, with 25.3msf underway and 25.4msf in forthcoming projects that are set to be launched in the next 12-24 months. 

    Lodhiya believes that the company has a strong launch pipeline of premium projects, and expects it to deliver a 35% CAGR in bookings over FY25-27. He estimates the value of Signatureglobal’s current project pipeline at Rs 15,000 crore.

    3. Metro Brands:

    Emkay initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this footwear manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,500. This indicates an upside potential of 18.1%. Analysts Devanshu Bansal, Vishal Panjwani and Mohit Dodeja highlight Metro’s 20% CAGR growth in India’s sports and athleisure market from FY18-23. The company holds exclusive rights to FILA and Foot Locker.

    The analysts note that the company caters to a wide audience with products priced from Rs 700 to Rs 12,000. Around 30% of employee compensation is linked to sales, which improves performance and drives consistent same-store growth of 3-4%. Analysts mentions that the company has ample expansion potential as premium brands like Tanishq operate in 290 cities, while Metro’s brands such as Metro, Mochi, and Crocs are present in only 171, 122, and 97 cities, respectively. They anticipate Metro can add 110-120 stores annually.

    Bansal, Panjwani and Dodeja expect Metro Brands to continue adding 80-90 exclusive Metro/Mochi brand outlets annually to deliver a 18% revenue CAGR over FY25-27. They also expect net profit to grow at a CAGR of 22% over the same period.

    4. Black Box:

    Ventura maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this IT software firm with a target price of Rs 826. This indicates a potential upside of 28.2%. The company offers digital infrastructure solutions in data centers and cybersecurity, as well as consulting services. Black Box expects its pipeline to grow to $3 billion from $2 billion and aims for a conversion rate of ~25%, up from the current 20%.

    Analysts highlight that the company plans to expand its data center operations, primarily in North America and India, which contribute about 20% of its revenue. Black Box expects major clients like Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft to invest heavily in data centers, driving revenue growth. Analysts anticipate data center revenue to grow at a CAGR of 15%, rising from Rs 1,256 crore to Rs 1,994 crore by FY27.

    Black Box has redefined its strategy by focusing on its top 300 customers and exiting less profitable long-tail clients, which do not contribute to margin growth. The company achieved an 8.9% EBITDA margin in Q2FY25 and 8.5% for H1FY25. Analysts note that Black Box has consistently outperformed in H2 compared to H1 in terms of operating profitability. They expect revenue to grow at a CAGR of 8% and net profit at a CAGR of 25.9%.

    5. Canara Bank:

    Hem Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 118, suggesting a potential upside of 23.3%. The company’s management targets an 11% YoY increase in credit for FY25. Analyst Madhur Mandhana highlights that, of the total Rs 18,000 crore in unsecured personal loans, about Rs 12,000 crore was allocated to retirees and wage account holders, which poses no concerns. The remaining Rs 6,000 crore was used for education loans.

    Mandhana believes that the 2020 merger of Canara Bank with Syndicate Bank enhanced its market position, giving it a market share of over 6% in advances and deposits as of FY24. The bank's net profit rose by 37.3% YoY to Rs 14,554 crore in FY24, with the net interest margin (NIM) increasing to 2.6%, up from 2.5% in FY23. It expects a gross NPA of 3.5% and a net NPA of 1.1% for FY25, compared to 4.2% and 1.3% in FY24. However, Mandhana expects these figures to stay below 3.5% and 1.1%, respectively.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    08 Jan 2025
    Potential rockets? Defence stocks of 2025 | Screener: Defence stocks with high durability scores and growth forecasts

    Potential rockets? Defence stocks of 2025 | Screener: Defence stocks with high durability scores and growth forecasts

    By Swapnil Karkare

    Welcome to 2025 - which Defence Minister Rajnath Singh calls the "Year of Reforms" for India’s defence sector. Singh wants to modernise the sector, and increase local production.

    The government has been arguing that our defence processes are frozen in time. But reforms face many blocks, including outdated command structures, internal resistance to change ("we have always done it this way"), and tight budgets.

    Still there has been progress: India’s defence exports have jumped 30X in the last decade, with help from the private sector.

    The growth is happening just in time. The world is becoming increasingly violent, with the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Ukraine-Russia war, and China-Taiwan all simmering. The US has elected a President that puzzlingly, wants to annex Canada and Greenland. India’s defence needs will grow in a more aggressive world, and will need heavy investments.

    One can argue that people being the way they are, the market for bullets will never die. A defence investor may see this as an optimistic statement, and these stocks have become quite popular. The message from Motilal Oswal’s Defense Fund ad — "India is investing in defence, are you?" — captures the shift over the last ten years.

    In this week's Analyticks:

    • Defence stocks boom, as private companies make their mark
    • Screener: Defence stocks with high durability scores and revenue growth forecasts for Q3

    India moves towards the West, and away from Russia

    The French Rafale deal controversy marked an early shift in India's defence strategy. India hugged Russia close for decades for its military needs - the country accounted for 76% of our arms imports between 2009 and 2013.

    That has drastically reduced, and is below 50had % for the first time since the 1960s. While Russia is still the largest supplier with36% of our imports, Western countries - France (33%) and the US (13%) - are getting the larger share. This is part of a strategy to reduce our reliance from any single nation. 

    India is the world’s largest arms importer, accounting for 9.8% of global arms imports. However, the country is now focusing more on manufacturing defence products here and reducing dependency on foreign suppliers.

    India's defence makeover: government push boosts production and exports

    Our defence transformation took off with 2014’s ‘Make in India’ initiative. The government identified over 36,000 defence items that could be produced locally, ranging from complex systems, sensors, weapons, and ammunition. Since then, public sector companies have placed orders worth over Rs. 7,500 crore with domestic defence vendors

    India's diplomats have also turned into brand ambassadors for Indian-made defence products. India’s defence exports touched Rs. 21,000 crore in FY24, growing by 40% CAGR over the last decade. Defence production has soared 8% CAGR, from around Rs. 74,000 crores in FY17 to Rs. 1.3 trillion in FY24. The government hopes to hit Rs. 3 trillion in production and Rs. 50,000 crore in exports by 2030.

    Enter the entrepreneurs: open doors for the private sector

    The public sector has long dominated India's defence production, but the private sector has made recent gains, with a 20% share in production and 60% in exports. The increase in private sector participation has led to interest from a wide range of investors, including retail, mutual funds, and foreign institutions.

    In 2022, the NSE launched the Nifty India Defence Index, which has seen an impressive 4.5-fold rise since its inception, further fueling investor interest in the sector. As a result of this growing interest, fund houses like HDFC, Motilal Oswal, Aditya Birla Sun Life, and Groww have launched defence-specific schemes, with three of them debuting in 2024. 

    A Balasubramanian, CEO of Aditya Birla Sun Life, highlighted the large order books of top defence companies as attractive for investors. However, he noted that state-owned firms still dominate the sector, with the government holding majority stakes in many companies. Limited free float also makes these stocks vulnerable to price swings.

    High valuations is another worry. The HDFC scheme, for example, had to stop accepting fresh investments due to worries about peak valuations. But over the last six months, the defence sector index corrected by 20%, driven by slower order inflows, supply chain disruptions, and other execution challenges.

    Valuations are a high wall to climb for defence

    The sector is promising, but stocks are at pretty high valuations. Surjitt Singh Arora of PGIM India AMC warns that “valuations have run ahead of fundamentals”. Shiv Chanani of Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund agrees, pointing out that while order books provide revenue visibility, execution hurdles and rich pricing are worries.

    Despite this, Binod Modi of Mirae Asset Sharekhan, is among the optimists, arguing that the sector’s growth potential justifies its current valuations. He also says that the sector will see premium valuations for the next 3-5 years. Brokerages like Antique and Elara Securities share this bullish outlook, and point to the recent correction as a good entry point for long-term investors. 

    Diamonds in the mix?: Looking for good fundamentals amid high valuations

    Among the key players in the industry, Solar Industries, Astra Microwave, Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) and Bharat Electronics (BEL) have grown steadily in revenue, net profit, order books and return ratios. 

    ICICI Securities expects Solar Industries to increase its share of defence revenue over the next five years, particularly with the global shortage of ammunition creating new opportunity. Astra Microwave’s healthy order book and robust pipeline have also kept its revenue and profitability healthy, especially with a focus on higher-margin domestic contracts.

    ICICI Direct forecasts that HAL’s revenue growth will rise significantly from FY26, due to better execution. And Mirae Asset Sharekhan expects BEL to be the biggest beneficiary of recent proposals from the Defence Acquisition Council, including maritime surveillance, and other capability upgrades. 

    Challenges like high valuations or FII sell-offs could dampen the sentiment in the near term. But the long-term potential of the sector has made analysts upbeat. 

    Since FY23, the government has cleared Rs. 8.3 trillion worth of Acceptance of Necessities (AoNs) for defence projects — a 53% jump from the past decade. Government procurement begins after an AoN, and this signals a massive pipeline of upcoming projects for defence companies. According to Elara Securities analysts, there are substantial growth opportunities for the sector in the coming years, driven by the government’s focus on indigenisation and exports.


    The government is also looking to increase the role of startups, SMEs, and corporates in various segments such as research and AI. Antique Research is particularly excited about the untapped potential in this space, noting that several defence companies with unique technologies and capabilities are still not publicly listed - including Tata Advanced Systems, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Mahindra Aerospace, Kalyani Strategic Systems, DRDO, Munitions India, and BrahMos Aerospace. A long established sector is seeing fresh excitement, with young players rising alongside promising, listed companies.


    Screener: Defence stocks with the highest Durability scores and revenue growth estimates for Q3FY25

    Defence stocks have high durability and revenue growth estimates in Q3

    As we wait for the Q3 result season, we look at defence stocks with the highest Forecaster estimates for revenue YoY growth and a good Trendlyne durability score. Stocks with high durability scores are companies rated with good management, that have consistently demonstrated good growth and cash flow, stable revenues and profits, and low debt. This screener shows such defence stocks, which are expected to show high revenue growth in upcoming results

    The most notable stocks in the screener are Bharat Dynamics, Data Patterns (India), ideaForge Technology, Bharat Dynamics, Hindustan Aeronautics, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, and Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers.

    Bharat Dynamics shows up in the screener with a Trendlyne Durability score of 70 and Forecaster estimates revenue growth of 102.8% YoY in Q3FY25. This debt-free defence stock’s high score can be partly attributed to its net profit increasing YoY in five out of the past eight quarters. Analysts at Phillip Capital and Elara Capital expect the company’s revenue to grow due to a strong order backlog and its inclusion in defence modernisation programs.

    Bharat Electronics also features in the screener with the highest Trendlyne Durability score of 85 among defence stocks. Its good durability can be attributed to consistent revenue growth YoY for the past nine consecutive quarters and net profit increasing YoY for the past eight quarters. The company also has low interest expenses and a strong return on equity (RoE) of 16.8% in FY24. Its trailing twelve-month (TTM) PE stands at 45.4, higher than its three-year and five-year average PE. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates this company’s revenue to grow by 28.6% YoY in Q3FY25. Analysts at Sharekhan expect its revenue to grow due to increasing defence spending in India, the structural trend of indigenisation, and export opportunities.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

    Signing off this week,

    The Trendlyne Team

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    07 Jan 2025
    Zomato leads with high analyst upside, Aster DM shows strong momentum

    Zomato leads with high analyst upside, Aster DM shows strong momentum

    By Aditi Priya

    Finding the right investment opportunities can feel like a race against time for stock market investors. By the time a good stock is widely covered, much of its potential upside may already be gone. The challenge is identifying the right stocks at a good valuation, while sifting through a lot of data. 

    Screeners make it easier to find stocks that outperform on not one or two but multiple metrics. For example, Trendlyne’s durability and momentum scores look at metrics across management quality, financial health, and several dozen technicals to identify high-scoring stocks. These scores help investors shortlist quality stocks more easily.

    In this week's Chart of the Week, we look at this screener of stocks with high durability and momentum scores, that fall within the PE buy zone with at least a 5% target price upside, according to the Forecaster. A stock in PE Buy zones indicates that it is undervalued compared to its historical averages. 

    These stocks are from various sectors, including software & services, banking & finance, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, retailing and diversified consumer services.

    Zomato leads in 12-month upside from analysts

    The internet platform company, Zomato, boasts a 12-month upside forecast of 20.2%. It has an impressive durability score of 80 and a momentum score of over 50. The company has risen 93.7% over the past year. In Q2FY25, the company reported a 64% YoY revenue increase, driven by strong performance in key segments including hyperpure, quick commerce, and the food ordering and delivery business. Net profit rose 388.9%, driven by platform fees and higher ad revenue. 

    Geojit Paribas maintains its ‘BUY’ rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 284. Analysts noted, “We believe that growth in all key areas - orders, AOV, and new user acquisition should enhance profitability going forward.” 

    However, on Tuesday, Jefferies downgraded Zomato to a ‘HOLD’ rating, citing increasing competition in the quick commerce space.

    Healthcare sector companies exhibit strong momentum

    Cipla, a pharmaceutical company, has a 12-month upside potential of 8.8%, backed by solid durability and momentum scores of 85 and 51, respectively. In Q2FY25, Cipla's revenue increased by 5.7% YoY, driven by growth in South Africa, emerging markets, and Europe. Revenue from Indian operations saw a 4.7% YoY increase, fueled by strong sales in chronic therapy and consumer health.

    PL Capital has upgraded Cipla to ‘BUY’ with a target price of Rs 1,730. Analysts at the brokerage stated, “We believe the recent classification of its Goa facility as VAI (Voluntary Action Indicated) by the US Food and Drug Administration has paved the way for the gAbraxane launch.” This clears regulatory hurdles, enabling Cipla to proceed with production and launch of gAbraxane, a generic version of the chemotherapy drug Abraxane, in the US market. Cipla’s $1 billion net cash position also provides room for strategic M&A opportunities.

    Healthcare facilities player Aster DM has a 12-month upside potential of 7.8%. It has the highest momentum score of 69 among all the stocks in the screener, signalling strong buying interest. The company’s net profit increased to Rs 96.8 crore, a turnaround from a net loss of Rs 30.8 crore in Q2FY24. Steady growth in its core business segments and effective cost-optimization strategies drove this performance. On November 29, 2024, Aster DM board approved a merger with Quality Care, which made them the third largest healthcare chain in terms of revenue and bed capacity in India.

    After the Q2FY25 result announcement, Alisha Moopen, Deputy Managing Director, stated, “We expect synergies to deliver a near-term EBITDA upside potential of 10-15%, driven by optimizing material and manpower costs and improving ARPOB (average revenue per occupied bed) through a better clinical mix. Over the next 3-4 years, we aim to further enhance margins to 24-25%.”

    Banking and finance companies show strong growth potential and high momentum 

    ICICI Bank has a 12-month upside forecast of 15% and is categorized as a 'Strong performer, under radar', in Trendlyne’s DVM score classification. The bank holds a durability score of 60 and a momentum score of 50, consistently delivering strong financial results. In Q2FY25, it recorded a 27.3% YoY revenue growth and an 18.8% YoY increase in net profit.

    Brokerages like Motilal Oswal and Sharekhan have maintained their ‘Buy’ ratings, citing the bank’s robust performance driven by healthy loan growth, strong asset quality, and industry-leading return ratios. Sharekhan highlights, “ICICI Bank remains our top pick in the private banks and is well positioned to deliver superior performance despite cyclical headwinds. NIMs (net interest margin) are expected to be stable in H2 vs. H1 FY25 until the rate cut cycle starts.”

    City Union Bank (CUB) offers a 12-month upside potential forecast of 11.6%, with a durability score of 65 and a momentum score of 50. The bank posted positive results for Q2FY25, with net profit and revenue increasing by 1.6% YoY and 11.7% YoY, respectively, driven by improved asset and earnings quality.

    Axis Securities says, “CUB appears to have re-started its growth journey, with demand-driven growth evident in its core segments. As revamped processes show results and the bank expands into the non-core retail segment, we expect further improvement. Steady NIMs, better operating expense ratios, and stable credit costs are likely to help CUB achieve RoA (return on asset) and RoE (return on equity) of 1.6% and 13-14%, respectively, over FY25-27.” The brokerage upgraded its rating from HOLD to BUY on the valuation front. They revised the target price to Rs 185, a 8.7% upside potential from the current market price of Rs 170.3.

    Retail sector company Campus Activewear shows strong momentum

    Campus Activewear, a footwear company, has a 12-month upside potential of 6.4%, with durability and momentum scores around 60. In Q2FY25, the company reported a 30% YoY revenue increase and net profit grew to Rs 14.3 crore from a loss of Rs 0.3 crore in Q2FY24, driven by 35% volume growth. 

    Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘BUY’ rating with a target price of Rs 360, based on 55x Dec’26 P/E. It stated, “Campus’ innovative designs, color combinations, and attractive price points make it a market leader in the Sports and Athleisure category. We expect the revival of the demand environment in 2H and stabilization in the D2C online channel to aid Campus’ growth recovery."

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    03 Jan 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 03, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 03, 2025

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. Ipca Laboratories:

    Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceutical company with a target price of Rs 1,980, indicating a potential upside of 13.5%. Analysts Tushar Manudhane, Akash Dobhada, and Viraj Shah highlight that after a muted performance in the US over the past eight years due to compliance issues, Ipca Labs is well-positioned to revive its US business. This will be supported by new product launches, relaunches, stable pricing in its base business, and the integration of the Unichem business over the next 12-24 months.

    Ipca Labs has received 11 approvals from the US FDA in the 12 months ending September 2024. While the company has already shipped products to the US, it plans to file 15-17 more products over the next two years. The company also aims to enter the Chilean market, where the drug authority accepts US FDA-approved drugs without extra testing. Unichem’s strong presence in the US will help speed up approvals in Chile, significantly reducing the time needed for market entry.

    Manudhane, Dobhada, and Shah expect a 52% CAGR in US sales for Ipca Labs over FY25-27, driven by improved process efficiency, new drug filings, and the integration of Unichem’s front-end operations. The company is also focusing on launching new divisions in high-growth therapies, such as cosmeto-dermatology and orthopedics.

    2. Amara Raja Energy & Mobility:

    Hem Securities reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this battery manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,397. This indicates an upside potential of 16.2%. In Q2FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 9.8% YoY to Rs 3,250.7 crore, driven by the lead-acid battery business.

    Amara Raja Energy is focusing on cost reduction by increasing in-house manufacturing, with a tubular battery facility set to begin production by the end of FY25. Additionally, the company is improving lead refining operations at its Tamil Nadu plant, targeting a 2-3% improvement in lead recovery to reduce material costs. 

    The business is expanding its lithium-ion battery and electric vehicle (EV) charger segments, having already invested Rs 850 crore, with plans for further investment of Rs 500-600 crore. The company plans to invest approximately Rs 1,200 crore in FY25 for the Giga Corridor and lithium-ion projects, with additional investments planned for FY26 to expand advanced chemistry cell manufacturing.

    Analysts mention that the investments in electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage system (ESS) batteries position the company for future growth and expect a CAGR of 18.9% in net sales and 19.9% in net profit.

    3. Man Infraconstruction:

    Axis Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this Mumbai-based construction company with a target price of Rs 280, indicating an upside of 11.3%. Man Infraconstruction (MICL) recorded Rs 670 crore in collections for H1FY25, up 44% YoY from Rs 465 crore in H1FY24. Its pre-sales for the period totalled Rs 900 crore, driven by projects like Ghatkopar One Earth and Atmosphere in Mulund. MICL has achieved about 50% sales in the Ghatkopar ‘One Park’ project, with a potential revenue of Rs 1,200 crore. The company expects another Rs 500 crore in pre-sales in H2FY25.

    MICL sold 3.2 lakh square feet of carpet area in Q2FY25, and its upcoming project pipeline is seen as promising by analysts. Upcoming developments include projects in Vile Parle, Malabar Hills, Dahisar and Pali Hill. Analysts Eesha Shah and Preeyam Tolia said, "These projects are expected to contribute Rs 3,500-4,000 crore to the topline. The company will continue focusing on an asset-light development strategy, with joint venture (JV) and development management (DM) projects in the upcoming pipeline."

    Shah and Tolia believe the company is in a launching phase after making several acquisitions and will start realizing benefits in the upcoming financial year. They also note that the asset-light model has led to the highest profit margins in the industry, and are expected to grow further.

    4. APL Apollo Tubes:

    Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this steel products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,850. This indicates a potential upside of 16.6%. Analysts note that domestic steel prices have improved and stabilized after a recent decline. They expect Q3FY25 earnings to improve due to higher steel prices and growth in volumes. However, the near-term outlook remains weak.

    APL Apollo’s current capacity stands at 4.3 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) and is expected to increase to 5 MTPA by FY26. The company plans to set up three greenfield units in Uttar Pradesh (1.1 lakh tonnes per annum or LTPA), West Bengal (2 LTPA), and Karnataka (3 LTPA), along with brownfield expansions of 0.9 LTPA. Analysts expect the structural steel tubes market to grow at a 12% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, reaching around 17 million tonnes by 2030.

    The analysts project APL to achieve a revenue CAGR of 24% and a net profit CAGR of 33% over FY25-27. They highlight that the management is sticking to its sales volume targets of 3.2 million tonnes for FY25, with further growth to 4 million tonnes in FY26 and 5 million tonnes in FY27.

    5. Torrent Power:

    Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this electric utilities company with a target price of Rs 1,709. This indicates an upside potential of 11.1%. In H1FY25, the company's revenue grew 13.4% YoY to Rs 16,210 crore, and net profit surged 38.8% to Rs 1,492 crore. However, Q2 net profit declined 8.5% YoY to Rs 481 crore due to weaker renewable and thermal generation, and lower electricity demand caused by extended monsoons.

    Analyst Arun Kailasan noted that the company recently raised Rs 3,500 crore through its first Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP), which was oversubscribed 4X. Investors such as SBI Mutual Fund, Capital Group, Norges Bank, and Kotak Mutual Fund participated. The issue price was Rs 1,503 per share, and proceeds will be used to repay debt and to fund corporate expenses.

    Kailasan expects expansion plans for over 4.3GW of renewable capacities in the next 3 to 4 years. He also expects EBITDA to grow by 18% CAGR in FY25-27, supported by strong addition to renewables portfolio and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 23.8% over the same period.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    03 Jan 2025
    Did the richest get richer in 2024?

    Did the richest get richer in 2024?

    By Swapnil Karkare

    Born in Tehran in 1979, Adam Foroughi’s family fled to the US when he was a child. In 2012, he co-founded AppLovin, a gaming and mobile ad business that struggled at first. But in 2024, the company pivoted to AI, and surprised investors with its stellar performance, which pushed up the stock price by more than 700% this year.

    The owner of Chinese vaccine maker Zhifei, Jiang Rensheng, was a primary school teacher. Sunil Mittal started out manufacturing bicycle parts. Others like Musk and Ambani, came from business families. What they all have in common: they are now among the 500 richest people in the world.

    In 2024, the combined net worth of the top 500 billionaires reached a staggering $9.9 trillion, rising by 19%. But 112 individuals in the top 500 experienced substantial losses. While some billionaires rode a rising wave in sectors like AI, retail, and finance, others faced economic slowdowns and volatile markets.

    Europeans struggled, while Asians, Americans prospered

    In 2024, the wealth of Filipino billionaires doubled, while Mexican fortunes dipped by about one-sixth. The wealth of American and Chinese billionaires grew 34% and 14%, while Indian billionaires saw a modest 9% growth, beating the French (-14%) and Germans (6%).

    One country dominates. More than one-third of the top 500 billionaires in the world live in the US. Together, they have a net worth exceeding $5 trillion. These are familiar names - Elon Musk, the richest person worldwide, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Warren Buffett.

    China is second with 56 billionaires in the top 500, followed by India and Russia with 26 and 25 billionaires, respectively. Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani from India, Zhong Shanshan and Ma Huateng from China, and Russia’s Alexey Mordashov lead their respective countries. Ambani became the richest Asian person in 2024 with a net worth of $91 billion.


    The tech boom vs. the consumer slump

    The technology sector was a driving force behind wealth creation in 2024. Tech entrepreneurs added more than $900 billion collectively to their wealth -- the rise of AI and the strong US economy fuelling this growth. While tech represents only 82 people (16%) of the top 500 billionaires, it is 32% of the total net worth ($3 trillion).

    Not doing so well? The consumer and commodities sectors. Slow growth in China, rising interest rates, and a pause in revenge spending post-pandemic, especially in luxury, resulted in a $21 billion fall in the net worth of consumer-sector billionaires, with French billionaires hit the hardest. Bernard Arnault, the French founder of the world’s largest luxury company LVMH (which owns Louis Vuitton), saw his wealth drop by $31 billion - equivalent to Azim Premji’s entire net worth. 

    The US is the world's dominant economy, and it takes up a lot of space in the 500 billionaires list.

    Who are India’s Richie-Riches?

    Out of the 500 ultra-rich, Indians take up 26 spots, underscoring the country’s growing influence in the global economy. However, India’s top two wealthiest individuals - Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani slipped out of the $100 billion club in the last three months.

    18 Indian billionaires saw their wealth increase.  Shiv Nadar, the founder of HCL Technologies and the third richest person in India, witnessed the highest jump of $9 billion in his wealth. Others whose net worth spiked include Sunil Mittal, Dilip Shanghvi, Savitri Jindal, Samir & Sudhir Mehta, Murali Divi, Vikas Oberoi and Rahul Bhatia.

    Subdued consumer demand has weakened share prices and hit companies like Reliance Retail (Mukesh Ambani), DMart (Radhakrishnan Damani), and Britannia (Nusli Wadia), while a healthy luxury real estate market has boosted the net worth of individuals like KP Singh (DLF) and Vikas Oberoi (Oberoi Realty).

    What about the rest of us?

    India has witnessed a rise in the number of millionaires and billionaires over the past two decades. However, overall per capita wealth has grown by a mere 6% CAGR, from $2,088 in 2012 to $3,755 in 2022.

    The disparity is striking: the average Indian billionaire's net worth is 6 million times India's per capita median wealth, far more than Russia (1.7 million times) and China (0.5 million times). Developed nations, on the other hand, show smaller disparities (0.05 to 0.3 million times).

    India stands out as an extreme case compared to both emerging and developed economies. Here, the rise of billionaires is well underway. But the rest of the country has a lot of catching up to do.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    03 Jan 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 03, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 03, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. JSW Energy:

    This electric utility company rose over 2.8% on December 30 after its subsidiary, JSW Neo Energy, signed a definitive agreement to acquire O2 Power, a renewable energy platform. The platform is a joint venture between Sweden’s EQT Partners and Singapore’s Temasek Holdings. The transaction, valued at around $1.5 billion (approximately Rs 12,468 crore), is the company’s largest acquisition. The deal is expected to close by May 2025.

    Renewable energy currently accounts for over 51% of JSW Energy’s capacity. The acquisition of O2 Power will further enhance its renewable energy portfolio. The deal will increase JSW Energy’s generation capacity by 23%, from 20 GW to 24.7 GW.

    Commenting on this, Sharad Mahendra, Joint MD, and CEO, said, “We are on track to reach close to 10 GW by March 2025 and for the O2 platform (we will reach) 2.3 GW by June 2025. This deal will also help achieve our renewable capacity growth target of 20 GW by FY30.” Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates revenue growth of 28.1% in FY25, with net profit growth of 41.5%.

    Meanwhile, over the past month, JSW Energy has secured multiple renewable energy projects in the Commercial and Industrial (C&I) power market, increasing the company's total power generation capacity to 20 GW. Its locked-in renewable energy C&I capacity now totals 3.1 GW, including 2,654 MW of JSW Group's captive capacity and 445 MW of third-party C&I capacity.

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on JSW Energy with a target price of Rs 810, indicating a potential upside of 27.7%. The brokerage names JSW Energy as its top pick in the utility space for 2025. It believes the company's strong position in renewable energy augurs well for its growth prospects.

    2. Mahanagar Gas:

    This gas distribution company rose over 5% in the past week. In late November, the company raised CNG prices by Rs 2 in Mumbai and surrounding areas, excluding Delhi, due to a 20% rise in input costs. Reports indicate that the company may revise CNG prices in Delhi after the assembly elections, which are expected to be scheduled for February. 

    The company posted a 13.5% YoY increase in revenue for Q2FY25. However, its net profit declined by 16.3% to Rs 283.5 crore due to a rise in input cost. The Trendlyne Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue to rise by 7.6% in Q3FY25 due to rising demand for commercial and domestic natural gas. Meanwhile, net profit is estimated to decline by 2.5% due to the government's reduced domestic gas allocation to city gas distributors. It appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds have increased holdings in the past month.

    Geojit highlights the company’s robust volume growth of 13.1% in Q2FY25. Regarding the volume guidance, the company’s MD, Ashu Shinghal, noted,“ In the past few quarters, we have successfully added several large-volume customers. In fact, one of our largest customers has reached its full volume. For the first half, we have achieved around 7% growth in volumes. By year-end, we expect an additional 2-3% growth, bringing us close to a double-digit increase for the year. As for next year, we'll see how it unfolds, but the momentum is definitely there.”

    Geojit has upgraded to an ‘Accumulate’ rating on MGL with a target price of Rs 1,392. The brokerage expects increased demand for commercial and domestic natural gas, driven by population growth, more CNG and PNG customers, and higher CNG usage in commercial vehicles, to fuel the company's future growth. The brokerage notes that in H1FY25, CNG end-users rose to 10.4 lakh from 9.5 lakh in H1FY24, while PNG end-users grew to 17.6 lakh from 16 lakh. Price hikes and cost-cutting measures are expected to boost MGL’s margins and profitability.

    3. Jubilant Foodworks:

    Thisrestaurant company surged 7.7% over the past week and hit a52-week high of Rs 774.8 on Friday, following theannouncement of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Coca-Cola India on December 26. The agreement allows Jubilant to acquire a range of sparkling beverages and products from Coca-Cola's authorized bottlers.

    The partnership with Coca-Cola was longstanding and existed for nearly 20 years (1998-2018). However, the contract was terminated during Pratik Pota's tenure as CEO, as his previous experience with Pepsi enabled him to secure a more favorable deal for Domino’s India (operated by Jubilant Foodworks) at that time. 

    After a six-year collaboration with Pepsi, Jubilant FoodWorks has decided to renew its partnership with Coca-Cola, effective April 1, 2025. This decision follows the Bhartia family, promoters of Jubilant Foodworks, recentlyacquired a 40% stake in Hindustan Coca-Cola Beverages (HCCB), the largest bottling partner of Coca-Cola India, for approximately Rs 12,500 crore. 

    In theH1FY25, the company opened over 139 new stores, bringing its total to 3,130 stores across six markets, including India, Turkey, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Founder and Co-chairman of Jubilant Bhartia Group, Hari Bhartia,said, “We’re doubling down on reducing delivery times from 30 minutes to 20 minutes and accelerating new store openings, expanding into new cities to capture growing demand.” Domino's India hasexpanded to 50 new cities in the past year. In the second quarter of FY25, the company added 20 cities, bringing its total presence to 447.

    However, the company faces competition in the Indian food delivery market from players like Zomato, Swiggy, and Ola Foods, which could affect its market share. Additionally, Jubilant Foodworksstruggles to maintain its margins due to increasing raw material costs and rising competition. Analysts have raised concerns regarding past capital allocations, particularly with investments in DP Eurasia and Barbecue Nation, which have diverted focus from the company’s core business objectives.

    Jefferies hasreiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Jubilant Foodworks with a target price of Rs 1,000. The optimism is based on expectations for a recovery in the company's same-store sales growth (SSSG), supported by a low base effect and internal improvement measures.

    4. Ashok Leyland:

    This commercial vehicles manufacturer rose 6.4% over the past week after announcing a 5% YoY growth in its December 2024 wholesales to 16,957 units, led by a 7.9% growth in total domestic medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV). However, cumulative sales for 2024 declined by 2% to 1.35 lakh units, compared to 1.38 lakh units in 2023.

    On December 13, Ashok Leyland (ALL) announced a price hike of up to 3% on all of its commercial vehicles, effective January 2025, citing inflation and rising commodity costs. Similarly, Tata Motors also plans to raise the prices of its trucks and buses by up to 2% starting in January due to higher input costs. Analysts believe these industry-wide price hikes highlight efforts by leading players to maintain pricing discipline in the commercial vehicle segment while focusing on sustaining double-digit EBITDA margins.

    The company’s share price has declined by 1.7% over the past quarter. However, it has outperformed its industry by 3.6% points. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates profit to increase 4.4% YoY in Q3FY25, with revenue growth of 0.6% YoY.

    While discounting is standard across the industry, ALL has reduced discounts and is focusing on its medium-term goals, including a 35% market share in MHCVs, expanding non-CV businesses, and leading alternate fuel vehicles. In the LCV segment, ALL serves 50% of the addressable market and aims to grow it to 80% with new product launches.

    Managing Director and CEO Shenu Agarwal said, “We aim for 80-85% participation in the LCV industry, with new product launches driving this goal. The LCV segment has higher growth potential than MHCV in terms of volume due to last-mile delivery and rural penetration.” He also highlighted the company is focusing on expanding geographically and enhancing its product portfolio to gain a better market share.

    Sharekhan reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on ALL with a target price of Rs 268, which indicates a potential upside of 14.5%. The brokerage notes that ALL is expanding its presence in new and existing international markets, aiming for annual exports of 50,000 units. The company is gaining strong traction in the bus segment and continues to secure new orders from state transportation units.

    5. Maruti Suzuki India Limited (MSIL):

    This car manufacturer has gained 9.5% over the past week following its monthly sales report. In December 2024, total wholesales rose 29.6% YoY to 1.8 lakh units. Maruti Suzuki’s domestic passenger vehicle (PV) sales increased by 24.2% to 1.3 lakh units. The rise is due to new launches, festive offers, and anticipated price hikes in January 2025. 

    The demand for CNG models also significantly contributed to the overall numbers. Chief Investor Relations Officer Rahul Bharti stated, “MSIL saw robust customer adoption of CNG vehicles, with one in three cars sold being a CNG model. The company plans to expand its hybrid offerings and enhance its product portfolio with limited-edition launches, including the S-CNG powertrain for the Swift.” He added that the company plans to launch a high-speed electric SUV with a 60 kWh battery by early CY25, aimed at export markets such as Europe and Japan.

    MSIL delivered a mixed performance in Q2FY25, with net profit dropping 17.6% while revenue slightly increased. The profit declined due to high commodity prices and higher sales promotion expenses. Recovery in overseas markets and improved realization helped the car maker post a slight revenue growth of 2.8%. Trendlyne Forecaster estimates a 7% YoY increase in revenue for Q3FY25.

    ICICI Direct has maintained a ‘Hold’ rating for Maruti Suzuki, highlighting its strong position to leverage the underpenetrated PV market domestically. With ongoing capacity expansion, the brokerage anticipates a 9% CAGR in sales and a 12% CAGR in profit after tax (PAT) for MSIL over FY25-27. The stock's target price of Rs 12,450 indicates an upside potential of 4.3% from the current price.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    31 Dec 2024

    Chart of the week: 42 companies are poised for a comeback in Q3FY25, according to analyst estimates

    By Aditi Priya

    As 2024 ends, the benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are set to finish the year with single-digit gains. The Sensex has gained 8.2% over the year, while the Nifty has risen 8.8%. 

    The year saw major milestones: the Sensex hit a record high of 85,978.3 and the Nifty reached a record of 26,277.4 on September 27. However, the year's final quarter has seen a downturn for the indices with the Nifty 50 declining by 8.7% and the Sensex falling by 9.7%.

    ICICI Direct said, “In the journey of Nifty to 50,000 by CY30, the index has achieved the milestone of 24,800 for CY24. Our analysis indicates that the stage is set for the next up move towards 28,800 levels in CY25.”

    But a continued rise for the Indian indices depends on whether company earnings can justify current and future valuations. The September quarter was disappointing for many sectors. Now as the next earnings season approaches, we look at turnaround companies that analysts say are poised for a financial recovery in Q3FY25. These companies underperformed in revenue or net profit in Q2FY25, but are expected to show a stronger performance in Q3FY25.

    In this chart of the week edition, we highlight these comeback kids, the companies which delivered disappointing results in Q2FY25 but are forecast to rebound in the upcoming quarter.

    Bharat Dynamics and Prestige Estates lead the turnaround charge

    Bharat Dynamics, a leading defense company, is expected to see a 102.8% YoY revenue growth in Q3FY25, rebounding from an 11.5% and 16.7% YoY decline in revenue and net profit, respectively in Q2FY25. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts caused supply chain delays, affecting Q2 performance.

    The company’s 68.3% EPS growth forecast signals a strong recovery in profitability. As the sole manufacturer of missiles and torpedoes for the Indian military, Bharat Dynamics benefits from both domestic and export opportunities. While recent order delays have affected performance, Elara Securities remains optimistic about a surge in orders driven by upcoming defense capital expenditures.

    Despite a challenging Q2FY25, Prestige Estates is expected to perform strongly in Q3FY25, with a forecast of 56.6% YoY revenue growth and a 165.2% YoY EPS increase. This turnaround is driven by the expected recovery in demand across the residential and commercial real estate segments. The company is also accelerating new launches in key markets such as Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and NCR, following delays due to RERA (Real Estate Regulatory Authority) approval processes. Many of these projects, originally planned for earlier, are now slated for Q3FY25. Prestige Estates has also outlined plans to launch projects with a total Gross Development Value (GDV) of Rs 520 billion in H2FY25.

    General industrials and consumer durable sectors expected to recover

    The turnaround screener has the maximum number of companies (8 out of 42) from the general industrials sector. Several companies from the sector are expected to make significant turnarounds in Q3FY25. Companies like CG Power & Industrial, Grindwell Norton, and Timken stand out with positive forecasts. 

    CG Power & Industrial is expected to see a 40.2% rise in net profit in Q3FY25, despite an 8.8% decline in Q2FY25. The decline was due to higher material costs and other expenses. The company, which specializes in electrical equipment, automation, and industrial solutions, has a strong order book of Rs 7,831 crore. In November, it won a Rs 500-600 crore order for the Kavach train protection system from Chittaranjan Locomotive Works, with execution expected within a year.

    Grindwell Norton, which saw a modest 4% YoY revenue growth and a 4.7% decline in net profit in Q2FY25, is projected to post a 15.8% YoY revenue growth and 18.7% YoY EPS growth in Q3FY25. The company's performance in Q2 was impacted by margin declines in the ceramics & plastics and digital services segments, along with lower-than-expected growth in the abrasives segment. In H1FY25, the abrasives segment grew 5.5% YoY to Rs 350 crore, accounting for nearly 50% of total revenue of Rs 710 crore. Moving forward, growth in the abrasives segment is set to be driven by opportunities in solar glass edge grinding, increased demand for high-productivity solutions in steel and construction, and the expansion of non-woven products into new market segments. 

    Similarly, companies from the consumer durables sector are expected to deliver positive results in the upcoming quarter. Finolex Cables is expected to recover in Q3FY25 with 11.6% YoY revenue growth and 7.8% EPS growth. In Q2FY25, net profit declined by 23.5% due to volatility in input prices, inventory loss, and destocking. However, stable input costs, improving margins and higher volumes are expected to drive growth in the upcoming quarter. Strong demand from the real estate sector and increased government spending are expected to boost wire and power cable volumes. 

    Kajaria Ceramics, India’s largest ceramic and vitrified tile manufacturer, expects a positive Q3FY25 with 10.5% revenue growth and 12.2% EPS growth after weak Q2FY25 results. Strong domestic demand, driven by the realty sector and growing exports, is expected to support its recovery. 

    Honeywell Automation faced challenges in Q2FY25, with a 5.6% decline in net profit due to weak execution, softer demand, and accounting changes. However, Q3FY25 looks promising, with EPS forecast to grow by 26.2%. The company should benefit from the government's focus on infrastructure sectors like oil, gas, power, and metals. Its emphasis on industrial digitalization, automation, and sustainability is expected to drive long-term growth, aiming to outpace GDP domestically.

    Strong rebound in consumer-facing companies

    Jubilant Foodworks is expected to achieve 50.3% revenue growth and 48% EPS growth in Q3FY25, recovering from a 34.1% YoY net profit decline in Q2FY25 due to higher tech investments and supply chain upgrades. The company also holds the master franchise for Domino’s India. Domino's added 50 stores and entered 20 new cities in Q2, with expansion efforts set to further boost customer reach and market share.

    Westlife Foodworld reported a 98.4% drop in Q2 net profit, driven by higher expenses, subdued in-store business and rising inflation, which affected consumption outside the home and intensified competition. However, the company, analysts predict, will achieve 30.9% EPS growth in Q3FY25. Despite near-term challenges like lower on-premise sales, the company is expected to perform well in Q3 due to the festive season and new menu offerings. Management expects gross margins to rebound to over 70% in H2FY25, targeting 18-20% EBITDA margins by 2027.

    Dabur reported a 5.5% revenue decline and a 17.5% net profit drop in Q2FY25, impacted by inventory corrections. Commenting on Q2 results, the company's CEO, Mohit Malhotra, stated, “The inventory correction is an exceptional one-time event. Dabur's business fundamentals remain strong, with our 5-year revenue CAGR for the India business growing at over 8%.” The forecast for Q3FY25 indicates a recovery with 5.7% revenue growth and 0.9% EPS growth. The acquisition of Sesa Care in October is expected to strengthen Dabur's position in the premium Ayurvedic hair oil segment.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    27 Dec 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 27, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 27, 2024

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. InterGlobe Aviation:

    This airlines company has risen by 5.6% over the past week, and gained around 64.5% from its 52-week low of Rs 2,847. This comes after Elara Securities upgraded its rating to ‘Buy’ from ‘Sell’ and raised the target price to Rs 5,309, while highlighting that the company will be a key beneficiary of the growth in India's aviation sector. The average target from analysts on the company according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster is Rs 4,913. 

    IndiGo carried 90.7 lakh passengers during November, with its market share increasing to a dominant 63.6%, according to data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). The company targets to fly around 11.2 crore passengers in 2024, surpassing its previous record of over 10 crore last year. India's air travel industry is witnessing rapid growth, driven by rising domestic and international passenger traffic. In the January to November 2024 period, Indian airline companies carried 14.6 crore passengers, a 5.9% YoY growth. 

    To meet the growing demand in India’s air travel market, IndiGo is exploring advancing its aircraft rental agreements to February. In April, the company announced an order for 30 wide-body Airbus A350-900 aircraft, with deliveries starting in 2027, and 69 A321XLR aircraft expected in 2025. However, the company stated that it won’t wait until 2027 to introduce these planes. Commenting on this, Pieter Elbers, the CEO said, “To meet the rising demand for international and domestic travel to and from India and considering global supply chain challenges, IndiGo is exploring interim solutions for an earlier induction of long-range aircraft”.

    India’s aviation space is projected to grow at a 12% CAGR from FY25-28, driven by capacity expansion and new infrastructure, including new airports in Delhi and Mumbai by April 2025 and terminal upgrades in Bengaluru, Chennai, and Ahmedabad. Elara Securities believes IndiGo is well-positioned to benefit from these tailwinds. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates, the airline’s revenue is expected to grow by 28.5% YoY in Q3FY25. 

    2. Dr. Reddy's Laboratories:

    Thispharmaceuticals company surged 3.9% on December 19 after Nomuraupgraded Dr. Reddy's Laboratories’ rating to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral.’ The brokerage set a target price of Rs 1,500 per share based on the company’s growth potential and investments in emerging markets and key therapeutic areas.

    On November 28, the companylaunched Toripalimab, the first and only approved drug in India for nasopharyngeal carcinoma, a rare throat cancer. This drug, marketed under the brand name Zytorvi, works alongside chemotherapy to enhance the immune system's ability to fight the disease. This treatment is only available in a few countries, including India.

    InQ2FY25 the company reported a revenue growth of 15.6% YoY to Rs 8,345.7 crore, driven by a 17.2% increase in sales from the pharmaceutical services & active ingredients segment, and a 16.3% rise in the global generics segment. However, net profit declined 15.3% YoY to Rs 1,255.7 crore during the quarter, due to the acquisition of Haleon’s global portfolio of consumer healthcare brands in Nicotine Replacement Therapy.

    Dr. Reddy's has significantly increased its investments in manufacturing infrastructure, with capital expenditure (capex) expected toexceed Rs 2,500 crore in FY25. This is more than double the average annual capex of Rs 1,100 crore over the past five years. The increase is primarily for API capacity expansion, particularly for peptide products, including weight loss GLP-1 drugs. CFO M V Narasimhan,said, “We are developing a robust pipeline of small molecules, biosimilars and novel oncology assets, through internal and collaborative efforts, to drive future growth.”

    Nomura believes the company is focusing on wellness and unique products, reducing its reliance on traditional therapies that currently make up 41% of sales. This shift is expected to strengthen its product range and improve its position in the market.

    3. UPL:

    This agrochemicals company has fallen by over 3% in the past week. On December 20th, the company raised Rs 3,376 crore through a rights issue at a price of Rs 360 per share. On December 1st, the company completed the transfer of its Specialty Chemical business by way of a slump sale to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Superform Chemistries.

    UPL had posted a nominal 9% YoY increase in revenue for Q2FY25. However, its net loss rose to Rs 443 crore due to a jump in net debt and pricing pressure. Trendlyne Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue to rise by 38% in Q3FY25. Meanwhile, analysts from Sharekhan highlight rising food grain production, favorable regulatory reforms for farmers, and significant opportunities from off-patent products as positives for the company. It appears in a screener of stocks with the highest FII stock holdings.

    The outlook however, is mixed – company’s management anticipates a slowdown in volume growth during the second half of the year, with expected growth in the mid-single digits, down from 18% in H1. Anand Vohra, CFO of the company, notes, “We continue to maintain our revenue guidance of 4-8% for FY25, driven by an increase in our differentiated product sales and recovery in the US market.” Commenting on the overall agrochemical space, the company’s CEO, Mike Frank, says, “Price pressure continues to weigh on the overall market, partly due to overcapacity issues in China and tight grower margins, specifically in global row crops. However, we continue to perform well in maintaining and growing our market share in most regions.”

    Sharekhan has maintained its ‘Hold’ rating on UPL with a target price of Rs 584. The brokerage observes that high channel inventory and pricing pressures, coupled with increasing Chinese supply, will pose growth challenges for both global and domestic agrochemical companies. It anticipates that the demand recovery for the company is expected to be gradual in North America, Europe, and Brazil, with a quicker rebound in Asia. Given these industry challenges, the brokerage anticipates that earnings concerns for UPL will continue in the near term, with a recovery expected in FY25.

    4. Akums Drugs & Pharmaceuticals:

    This pharma company, which went public in August 2024, gained 19.2% last week after signing a long-term agreement with a leading global pharmaceutical firm to manufacture and supply oral liquid formulations for the European market. The total deal is valued at approximately €200 million (Rs 1,760 crore), including an upfront payment of €100 million (Rs 880 crore) for product development and site approval.

    Akums is set to begin the commercial supply of these products in 2027, continuing through 2032. The company also plans to seek European approvals for its oral liquid site, which it aims to utilize for manufacturing these products.

    Akums Drugs reported mixed Q2FY25 results, with a 105% YoY increase in net profit to Rs 65.2 crore, despite an 11.9% YoY decline in revenue due to muted volume demand and lower active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) prices. The company operates in three main segments - contract development and manufacturing operations (CDMO), active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), and branded and generic formulations. CDMO led the performance, contributing 79% of Q2 revenue, followed by branded and generic formulations at 16%, and API accounting for 5%.

    On November 19, Akums also announced that it had signed an exclusive Master Sales Agreement with Caregen Ltd., a South Korean company in the nutraceuticals segment. Under the agreement, Akums obtained exclusive rights to market specific Caregen products in India.

    Sandeep Jain, Managing Director of Akums stated, “Looking ahead, we anticipate demand trends in the second half to remain largely similar to the first half. There is potential for upside if API prices improve and industry volumes pick up, but that remains uncertain.” He believes that either in Q3 or Q4, API prices to at least average out or normalize, which should positively impact their revenue cycle.

    5. Bharat Petroleum Corp:

    This oil exploration and production company rose 1% on December 24 following two developments. Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) initiated pre-project activities for a greenfield refinery and petrochemical complex on the East Coast of Andhra Pradesh, with an estimated cost of Rs 6,100 crore. The refinery reportedly could have a capacity of at least 9 million tonnes (180,000 barrels per day).

    On the same day, the company also won NTPC’s 1200 MW solar tender as the lowest bidder, securing 150 MW in capacity. The project, valued at Rs 756.5 crore, will be developed over two years and is expected to generate annual revenue of ~Rs 100 crore by producing 400 million clean energy units.

    On December 2, BPCL signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Coal India to explore a coal-to-synthetic natural gas project at Western Coalfields (WCL). According to reports, BPCL and Coal India will invest Rs 12,000 crore in the joint venture, with Coal India holding a 51% stake and BPCL 49%. The investment supports BPCL’s clean energy goals and Coal India’s efforts to diversify coal use. The government will provide Rs 1,350 crore in funding for the project.

    The company’s Bina refinery project, which involves an investment of Rs 50,000 crore, is expected to be commissioned by FY28, with a production capacity of 2.2 million metric tonnes per annum of bulk petrochemicals. The propylene project at the Kochi refinery, with a capacity of 4 lakh tonnes per annum, is set to be commissioned by FY27. Speaking about the capex on these projects, VRK Gupta, Director of Finance, said, “We don't anticipate a significant increase in borrowing in the next couple of years. However, from FY27 and FY28 onwards, peak capex will occur for both the Bina and Kochi projects, leading to higher borrowings. In the next 1–2 years, we expect a capex plan of around Rs 18,000–20,000 crore.”

    Geojit BNP Paribas has given a ‘Hold’ rating to BPCL with a target price of Rs 326. This indicates a potential upside of 11.1%. The brokerage expects earnings growth in the coming quarters, driven by its expanding market share across segments, aggressive capital expenditure, and strategic partnerships. However, geopolitical uncertainties and volatile oil prices remain key risks that could affect the company's performance.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    more
    loading
    Logo Trendlyne

    Stay ahead of the market

    Company

    PrivacyDisclaimerTerms of Use Contact Us

    Resources

    Blog FAQsStock Market Widgets

    Copyright © 2025 Giskard Datatech Pvt Ltd