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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    12 Apr 2024
     Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 12, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 12, 2024

    1. Godrej Properties:

    This realty company hit its all-time high of Rs 2,791.8 on Tuesday and rose by 11.2% in the past week after it released its Q4 business update. It has risen by 117.5% in the past year, but still underperformed its sector by 18.8% points.

    In Q4FY24, the company’s bookings grew 135% YoY to Rs 9,500 crore and sold 5,331 homes. Its bookings grew 84% YoY to over Rs 22,500 crore in FY24 with sales of 14,310 homes on the back of improving project mix as well as strong volume growth. The management said, “This is the highest ever quarterly and annual sales to date by any publicly listed real estate developer in India.” The firm also exceeded its annual bookings guidance of Rs 14,000 crore.  

    In the past week, Godrej Properties said that it has sold inventory worth Rs 2,690 crore in its Mumbai project, Godrej Reserve. This project has an estimated revenue potential of approx Rs 7,000 crore. Similarly, the firm also sold homes worth over Rs 3,000 crore within three days of the launch of its project Godrej Zenith in Gurugram. 

    Along with its rising bookings, the company’s debt levels are rising as well. Its net debt stands at Rs 6,900 crore. Its debt-to-equity ratio has consistently increased over four consecutive quarters to 0.7 in Q3FY24 from 0.4 in Q4FY23. 

    Trendlyne Forecaster estimates a 25% YoY increase in Godrej Properties’ FY24 profit. HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Accumulate’ rating on Godrej Properties on the back of a strong launch pipeline of 18 million square feet over the next 2-3 years. The brokerage estimates a growth of 15% CAGR in net sales over FY24-26. It believes that the firm will add projects on a replacement basis rather than having lumpy transactions. The company appears in a screener for stocks with recommendations or target price upgrades by brokers.

    2. IIFL Finance:

    This finance company has surged 19.6% in the past week, driven by several positive developments. On April 5, the stock rose 13.2% after its price band limit was revised to 20% from 10%. Additionally, the company received approval from the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) on April 1 to acquire equity shares worth Rs 284.4 crore in the exchange through a secondary market purchase from FIH Mauritius Investments.

    Despite recent gains, Trendlyne’s Technicals indicates that the stock is trading at a discount of 33.7% from its all-time high of Rs 703.4. It fell after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) imposed restrictions on IIFL Finance on March 4, prohibiting it from sanctioning and disbursing gold loans due to ‘material supervisory concerns’.

    This was a significant blow - as of December 31, 2023, gold loans comprised 32% of the total assets under management (AUM) at Rs 24,692 crore for the IIFL Finance Group and 79% of the standalone AUM of IIFL Finance. 

    Following the RBI ban, the company, to ensure enough liquidity raised Rs 500 crore through a non-convertible bond issue on March 20, as part of a larger fundraising plan worth Rs 2,000 crore.

    Managing Director, Nirmal Jain said that, “The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) action on the firm’s gold loan business was attributed to ‘operational issues’ and not governance or ethical problems.” Jain said that the company is implementing corrective measures to reduce discrepancies in the assessment of gold value between branches and audit teams. 

    As of February, Trendlyne’s Forecaster showed a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' on the stock with all six analysts rating it a 'Strong Buy'. However, post the ban, the consensus in April shifted to 'Hold,' with three analysts rating it as 'Strong Buy,' one as 'Hold,' and another as 'Sell.'  With an average target price of Rs 581, IIFL Finance has a potential upside of 34.1%.

    Motilal Oswal reiterated its 'Buy' rating on March 6, estimating that it could take around six months for the RBI to conduct a special audit and resolve its observations. 

    3. Bandhan Bank:

    This bank has fallen by 7.3% over the past week, following an announcement that Chandra Sekhar Ghosh will retire as the MD & CEO after his current tenure ends on July 9, 2024. Investors were taken by surprise, since in November 2023 the bank’s board had approved his reappointment for three years, effective July 10, 2024. As a result of the fall in share price, the bank features in a screener of companies with weak momentum.

    Ghosh has been serving in this position since July 10, 2015. Now, he is expected to  take up a strategic role at the group level. According to reports, an external candidate is likely to replace him as CEO. 

    The retirement comes amid ongoing challenges for the bank, including Covid-related stress in asset quality and a slower recovery than its peers. In addition, Bandhan Bank is currently undergoing a forensic audit by the National Credit Guarantee Trustee Company (NCGTC) for loans worth Rs 23,000 crore (constituting roughly 18% of the total loan book as of Q3FY24), with conclusions expected in 1-2 months.  

    Meanwhile, in Q4FY24, Bandhan Bank’s deposits have grown by 25.1% YoY to Rs 1.4 lakh crore, while its advances rose by 17.8% YoY.  Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the bank’s net profit to grow by 27.5% YoY in Q4FY24. However, analysts are concerned about the uncertainty around management succession and the potential challenges in terms of growth strategy for the bank. The new CEO's transition would take at least six months. 

    According to Nomura, “With leadership now in flux, we see more uncertainties for the franchise”. It has downgraded its rating on the bank to ‘Reduce’ and slashed the target price to Rs 175.

    4. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders:

    This defence stock rose 4% on Monday after it reported a year-on-year annual revenue growth of 20% to almost Rs. 9,400 crore for FY24 (this is an unaudited figure). The stock has gained over 222% in share price over one year.

    China in the news tends to be good for defence companies like Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders. The rising naval threat from China in the Indian Ocean, especially around Sri Lanka and the Maldives, and its sales of submarines to Pakistan and Bangladesh, have drawn the Indian government’s attention.

    Consequently, the Indian defence industry has seen a big boost in government orders over the past year, and has risen 141% overall. The industry is likely to remain bullish in the coming quarters –  the government is considering spending $130 billion over the next six years for fleet modernisation across its armed services. The sector received over $70 billion in the interim budget for 2024-25.

    A substantial amount of India’s spending in this sector is likely to be allocated to submarine and ship manufacturers like Mazagon Dock, as India looks to aggressively boost its naval capabilities. The Indian navy currently has about 140 ships, which is expected to expand to 170-175 ships by 2035. Mazagon Dock has the only shipyard in the country that has built naval destroyers and conventional submarines for the Indian Navy. Its order book is currently 5x its revenue, and Nirmal Bang expects a revenue CAGR of 25% over FY24-26E.

    The company is however, not exactly a value buy at this point. It is trading at relatively high PE compared to historical trends, and has traded below its current PE 80% of the time. Trendlyne’s Forecaster share price target is relatively bearish on Mazagon Dock due to the run up in its share price over the past year. The consensus is Hold, with a target price of Rs. 1857, a downside of 16.7%. 

    5. Exide Industries:

    This auto parts & equipment manufacturer touched a new 52-week high today of Rs 403. Exide Energy Solutions, its wholly owned subsidiary, signed an MOU with Hyundai Motors and Kia, where they plan to collaborate on battery cell development and supply for Hyundai’s Indian EVs. The company also recently acquired a 26% equity stake in “Clean Max Arcadia”, a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV)  incorporated by Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions, a renewable energy firm based out of Mumbai, to promote renewable energy on a long term basis.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company's net profit to grow by 40.2% to Rs 291.3 crore in Q4FY24 while revenue is expected to improve by 15.6% YoY. The firm however missed estimates for Q3FY24 for net profit by 9.4% and revenue by 2.7% due to higher raw material prices during the quarter.

    Factors such as rising demand for personal mobility, a shift in global supply chains and increasing demand for more efficient batteries are acting as long term drivers for the company. Exide is also venturing into manufacturing of Li-On cells in technical collaboration with SVOLT (Chinese collaboration) with a capex outlay of  around Rs 6,000 crore for a 12 GWH capacity. The first phase of 6 GWH is slated to be operational in 2025 with a capex outlay of  around Rs 4,000 crore, and the complete plant in the next 3-4 years.

    Subir Chakraborty, MD & CEO, said: “We are optimistic about the future and are witnessing signs of demand pick-up. Our Lithium-ion cell production is on schedule. We plan to regain our pre-Covid  EBITDA margin levels of 13-14% in the next 1-2 years.”

    ICICI Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ for Exide with a target price of Rs 400, which it hit today. The brokerage notes that with stable raw material prices (lead at ~US$ 2,100/tonne) and operational efficiencies, margins should inch up to 12.5% by FY26.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    10 Apr 2024
    Chart of the week: The biggest wealth destroyers of FY24

    Chart of the week: The biggest wealth destroyers of FY24

    By Satyam Kumar

    Over the past year, the Indian equity market has seen remarkable growth, highlighted by the Nifty 500 index rising 39.1% in FY24. But as always, the rising tide lifted some boats higher, while others sprung leaks. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we take a look at companies that saw big declines in their share prices, underperforming the index and eating into investors' wealth in FY24.

    At the end of FY24, 45 Nifty 500 companies feature in the Wealth Destroyers screener, which looks for negative share price changes in the past year. The chemicals and petrochemicals sector had a difficult year and dominates this list with the highest number (eleven) of wealth destroyers. These include UPL, Navin Fluorine International, Atul and Aether Industries among others. 

    Retailing and logistics companies also faced challenges with above-average inflation in FY24, which peaked in July 2023 at 7.4%. However, central banks worldwide are trying to bring inflation down by keeping interest rates higher. Still, rising geopolitical tensions, and crude production cuts by OPEC+ have kept inflation sticky.

    Regulatory issues trigger sell-off in Paytm and Rajesh Exports

    In the gems and jewellery industry, which rose 78.4% in the past year, Rajesh Exports depreciated by 50.7%. The company is involved in various compliance issues, including instances of missing documents during earnings filings, which were further compounded by declining revenues. Their net profit for Q3FY24 slumped 97% YoY at Rs 12.4 crore. According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, Rajesh Exports fell to a 5-year low at Rs 261 on March 28, 2024.

    Similarly, internet software and services company, One97 Communications faced a significant setback following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) directive on January 31. The RBI ordered Paytm Payments Bank to cease banking services due to persistent non-compliance concerns. However, the stock has been stabilizing after its Founder & CEO, Vijay Shekhar Sharma resigned from the Payments Bank board. At the same time, the company also withdrew its nominee and the bank’s future business is to be led by a reconstituted board. The company’s share price has gone down 39.1% in the past quarter.

    Weak demand and Chinese competition hurt the chemical industry’s profits

    The chemical sector faced continued price pressures in the past year, mainly due to a weak and erratic monsoon. As a result, major agrochemical company UPL posted a net loss of Rs 1,217 crore in Q3FY24, compared to a profit of Rs 1,087 crore in Q3FY23. 

    Another contributing factor was a sharp decrease in price realisation, and higher supplies from Chinese competitors as Covid-related restrictions eased. 

    Commodity chemicals company, Navin Fluorine International declined due to industry-wide channel destocking and inventory reductions. As a result, the company’s net profit fell 26.8% YoY to Rs 78 crore in Q3FY24. Navin Fluorine’s share price has slumped by 25.8% in the past year. Meanwhile, specialty chemicals company, Atul is down 14% in the past year, with a fall of 15.1% in the past quarter. This company has also witnessed its net profits fall 32.5% YoY in Q3FY24.

    Sticky inflation eats into logistics and retail companies' revenue

    As inflation in India peaked in 2023, people started paring down their discretionary spending. As demand softened, footwear company Campus Activewear saw its net profit contract 48.4% YoY in Q3FY24 at Rs 24.9 crore. At the same time, Vedant Fashions, also known as Manyavar, witnessed its sales in 9MFY24 increase only marginally to Rs 1,050 crore. However, the company saw its net profit in 9MFY24 fell 25.4% YoY to Rs 320 crore. This ethnic wear manufacturer witnessed its share price fall 24.8% in the past quarter because wedding-related consumption remained muted in FY24, unlike FY23, due to the lower number of wedding dates and the broader impact of consumption slowdown.

    Meanwhile, logistics company Allcargo also declined 15.4% in the past year. This is because their net profit in Q3FY24 fell by 93% YoY to Rs 11 crore. This was on the back of significant losses incurred in some of the markets in the US and Germany. The company expects global trade to revive in Q2FY25. 

    Edible oils company, Adani Wilmar’s share price slumped after the Hindenburg report came out on January 24 last year, which alleged that the Adani group was manipulating and inflating stock prices. Making matters worse, Wilmar’s net profit in 9MFY24 went down by 76% YoY to Rs 122 crore. The company’s revenue in 9MFY24 decreased 13% YoY to Rs 36,539 crore. This contraction in revenue was mainly due to weak demand in the edible oil segment (contributing 75% to its revenue) and lower product prices.

    A cancelled merger creates major hurdles for Zee Entertainment

    Finally, media company Zee Entertainment has fallen 28.8% in the past year and 46.2% in the past quarter mainly because Sony Group’s India unit called off its proposed merger amid questions around fund diversion and corporate governance.

    Adding to its woes, Reliance Industries entered into a joint venture with Walt Disney on February 28 to merge Viacom18 and Star India. This deal which resulted in a media behemoth worth Rs 70,352 crore, will negatively impact Zee as it would be difficult for the company to scale up its market share. The lesson here is that even in a rising economy and a surging stock market, there are many stumbles – self-inflicted and otherwise. 

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    The Baseline
    05 Apr 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 5, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 5, 2024

    1. Latent View Analytics:

    This data processing services company rose by 8.2% over the past week after it acquired a 70% stake in Indian IT services company Decision Point on March 28 for $39.1 million (approx. Rs 326.3 crore). Decision Point is a leader in business improvement using artificial intelligence (AI), and revenue growth management solutions. The acquisition,Latent View says, will give it a foothold in the retail CPG segment. It will also give access to new clients and geographies. The company appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding in the past month.

    Decision Point will also bring new large clients in the Retail CPG vertical, and in new regions like LatAm, US (its clients are largely US firms and are billed in $) and India. As a higher margin business, Decision Point can play a role in restoring LatentView’s operating margins to its historic levels of 32.1% (stands at 24.4% in FY23). 

    Speaking on the acquisition, the management commented, “Decision Point derives about 8% revenue from Beagle GPT (the GenAI app used by Fortune 500 retail CPG clients), which helps the company have multiple revenue streams. After the integration, the retail CPG segment will become the second largest (20% of revenue by FY25) vertical for the company.”

    Post the acquisition, Anand Rathi Wealth Management maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 630. This indicates a potential upside of 14.6%. The brokerage expects the company to maintain industry-leading growth in Q4FY24, despite the prevailing tough environment, followed by strong growth in FY25 supported by Decision Point’s integration (expected to be completed in Q1FY25).

    2. AU Small Finance Bank:

    This small finance bank has risen by 4.8% in the last two days after releasing its Q4 business update. Its total deposits have risen 26% YoY to Rs 87,182 crore and gross advances grew by 25% YoY to Rs 73,999 crore. 

    The management noted that the macro environment has remained challenging in Q4FY24, due to intense competition among banks to mobilize deposits. However, the expansion in the bank’s business groups, such as urban branch banking (which focuses on the urban market and constitutes 79% of deposits) and swadesh banking (which focuses on the core market and makes up 21% of deposits) have driven deposit growth during the quarter. 

    AU Bank has risen by 12.4% over the past week, outperforming its industry by 8.3%. On Monday, the bank announced the merger with Fincare SFB, after receiving approval from the RBI on March 4. Fincare has previously served a total customer base of approximately 54 lakh across 1,292 branches, with a strong presence in South India. After the merger, AU Bank’s total branch count will reach around 2,334, serving over 1 crore customers. 

    The merger enables AU Bank to expand into new geographical areas, especially in South India. This increased presence will facilitate the distribution of its products and services to a larger customer base, and help strengthen its market position in the south. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, the bank’s revenue is expected to grow by 26% YoY in FY24.

    Motilal Oswal reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 720. This implies an upside of 13.4%. It believes that the overall business of the bank will become more diversified,  gaining presence in high-yielding MFI (micro-finance) and gold loan. 

    3. Tata Technologies:

    This software and services company has surged by 9.9% in the past week following its joint venture (JV) announcement with BMW Group. This partnership involves building a software hub with a 1,000+ workforce to provide the BMW Group with automotive software and digital engineering services. JM Financial estimates that the JV could add 4-5 percent to their bottom line. 

    This collaboration is also expected to diversify the company’s client base, which is currently dominated by Tata group firms that account for approximately 33% of revenue as of Q3FY24.

    Tata Tech’s IPO worth Rs 3,042.5 crore was oversubscribed 69.4 times and debuted with substantial gains of 162.6%. Currently, the stock trades 124.3% above its issue price since November 2023. Price consolidation in the past few months was mainly because of investors cashing in on bumper listing gains.  Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue to grow by 14% YoY in FY24. At the same time, it forecasts its net profit to increase by 12.5% YoY. 

    The share of electric vehicles (EVs) in India's auto sales has surged to 6.4% in 2023 from 1.75% in 2021, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards EVs over the past two years. This suggests that India has crossed the tipping point in mass adoption of EVs, with sales now exceeding 5% of overall auto sales. Tata Technologies, with its extensive expertise in automotive technology, is well-positioned to capitalise on this EV trend.

    CEO, Warren Harris, says "We see very strong tailwinds as the industry pivots towards alternative propulsion systems and connected services." Despite some OEMs suggesting a slowdown in EV sector growth, Harris remains upbeat, believing otherwise from a product engineering perspective. Additionally, he highlighted optimism in the aerospace sector, citing their relationship with Airbus.

    Joindre Capital has initiated a 'Buy' rating on Tata Technologies. They believe that the company's expertise in the engineering, research and development (ER&D) space, along with its long-standing relationships with OEMs worldwide, increasing outsourcing demand, and rising EV adoption will drive growth.

    4. Mahindra & Mahindra

    This cars & utility vehicles manufacturer rose by 4.8% over the past week. The company recently signed an agreement with Volkswagen group, where it will equip its new electric platform INGLO with electric components from Volkswagen´s Modular electric drive matrix (MEB) and unified cells. The company plans to launch five all-electric SUVs on INGLO, starting December 2024.The company also signed an Memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Adani Total Energies E-Mobility to set up EV charging infrastructure across the country. 

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company's net profit to grow by 27.8% to Rs 1,980 crore in Q4FY24 due to its strong PV order book in Q4FY24, while revenue should improve by 6.7% YoY. The firm beat the Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimates for Q3FY24 for net profit by 5.9%, but missed the revenue estimate by 0.3%.

    The company’s total wholesales for FY24 rose by 18.1% YoY to 8.3 lakh units and the passenger vehicles domestic wholesales rose by 12.9% YoY to 40,631 units. But rural demand has been weak, driving YoY declines in  commercial vehicles, 3W and tractor wholesales – these fell 6.1%, 7.3%, 27.8% respectively. 

    However, demand is reportedly strong for its new launches, specially the SUV’s priced above Rs 10-12 lakh. The company is ramping up its SUV production capacity to 49k units per month, from the current 40-42k units. 

    Rajesh Jejurikar, ED & CEO, Auto & Farm Sectors of the firm, said, “ New bookings continue to be healthy at around 50,000 per month and the order backlog stands at around 2.3 lakh units. The rural economy is experiencing challenges, but tractor subsidies have decreased, benefiting the industry. Farm machinery growth is 29%, with a goal of 40% this year. In the urban space there are segments, particularly the rich, where we are seeing increased demand for certain vehicles.”

    ICICI Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ for Mahindra & Mahindra with a target price of Rs 2,225. The brokerage maintains its bullish stance on M&M due to the company's market leadership in the SUV and tractor segments. The brokerage expects sales to grow at 14.2% CAGR in FY23-26E amid 9.4% blended volume CAGR. The adjusted PAT is expected to grow to Rs 11,496 crore by FY26E.

    The brokerage currently values M&M based on Sum Of The Parts (SOTP) at Rs 2,225 (11x FY26E standalone EV/EBITDA and Rs 300 per share value accruing for the Electric PV arm).

    5. Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL):

    This department stores company rose by 15.5% in the past week. The rise came after the company announced a vertical demerger of its Madura Fashion & Lifestyle (MFL) business into a separate listed entity. This move aims to create two growth engines, with distinct plans to create value and allocate capital. Managing Director Ashish Dikshit said, “The restructuring will help the company focus on different strategies for each business segment.”

    MFL’s portfolio consists of lifestyle, casual wear, and sportswear brands like Louis Phillippe, Van Heusen, Allen Solly, Peter England, American Eagle, Forever 21, and Reebok. After the demerger, ABFRL’s portfolio will consist of value retail, ethnic, luxury, and digital brands. The demerger will allow ABFRL to focus on high-growth segments where there are tailwinds from a shift to premiumization, the rise of super-premium and luxury brands, and rapid growth in digital-first brands.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the firm to report a loss of Rs 293.2 crore in Q4FY24 and expects revenue to fall 16.9% YoY. The company reported a net loss of Rs 186.9 crore in Q4FY23. Analysts are cautious due to the company’s rising debt and inefficient working capital management. They believe that any misstep can lead to inventory liquidation-led margin loss or derailed growth. ABFRL also appears in a screener for stocks with low Piotroski scores (companies with weak financials).

    Axis Securities maintains a ‘Hold’ on the company on the back of near-term challenges, such as a slowdown in discretionary spending due to lower demand from tier-2/3/4 cities, a sharp increase in debt, and an increase in ad spending.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    04 Apr 2024

    Chart of the week: Finance, construction stocks among those with the highest analyst growth estimates for FY24

    By Satyam Kumar


    As the financial year ends, investors are eager to see the FY24 report cards of companies. But there are already predictions from analysts of who the top-rankers will be, ahead of the final quarter’s result season.  

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we take a look at the sectors and companies that analysts believe will come out on top. These have the highest growth estimates for revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for FY24.  

    The reference here is this screener of stocks with the highest Trendlyne’s Forecaster growth estimates in annual revenue and EPS in FY24. We have selected stocks with the highest Forecaster estimates from the most dominant sectors.

    Banking and finance sector companies estimated to post strong revenue growth in FY24

    The banking and finance sector has multiple companies with the highest Forecaster estimates for revenue and EPS in FY24. Lending company CreditAccess Grameen caters to low-income households lacking access to formal sources of financing. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates annual revenue growth for FY24 at 43.4% for CreditAccess, with EPS growth of 71.8%. Analysts at ICICI Securities believe that the company’s deeper penetration in rural areas, focus on increasing geographic coverage & diversifying product segments will help growth. In Q3FY24, the company had added 17 new branches, taking its total count to 1,894.

    Two other big winners in this space are capital markets companies such as Angel One and ICICI Securities, which are beneficiaries of the bullishness around the Indian stock market. Angel One is Angel Broking, post its rebranding and an aggressive focus on derivatives. Forecaster estimates Angel One’s annual revenue to increase by 45.2%. At the same time, Forecaster estimates ICICI Securities’ revenue to grow by 42.4% and EPS to rise by 48.1% in FY24.

    Construction stocks’ order book near all-time highs on the back of robust execution

    With their order book near all-time highs, construction companies such as Ahluwalia Contracts, Kalpataru Projects and PSP Projects are benefiting from strong order inflows. This is because of a 33% YoY rise in government spending on infrastructure at Rs 10 lakh crore in FY24 and a strong economy. Forecaster estimates Ahluwalia Contracts’ revenue growth of 33.5% in FY24, with EPS growth of 31.5%. Meanwhile, it estimates Kalpataru Projects’ annual EPS to increase by 50.9%. 

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates PSP Projects to post annual revenue growth of 31.2% in FY24, with EPS growth of 16.1%. The company says it’s confident of achieving a Rs 26 billion revenue target for FY24 with 11-12% EBITDA margins. However, since the start of FY24, it has witnessed increasing debt levels. In Q3FY24, debt stood at Rs 478 crore. With a few projects nearing completion, the company plans to reduce it meaningfully.

    Consumer demand drives growth in the electronics and automobile sector

    Moving to the consumer durables sector, Dixon Technologies is a major beneficiary of the Make in India scheme, with additional support from the government’s production-linked incentive schemes. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates revenue growth for Dixon Technologies at 51.4% YoY in FY24, with EPS growth at 54.7%. Meanwhile, Polycab India is benefitting from growing industrial demand for wires and cables as various real estate projects nears completion. 

    Consumer electronics company Voltas stands to gain from consumer demand, especially in the cooling space, due to extreme weather conditions. At the same time, premiumisation of products has led to better margins. Forecaster estimates Voltas’ FY24 revenue growth at 23.5%, with EPS growth of 62.3%.

    Automobile company Tata Motors witnessed strong demand across all segments in FY24. Forecaster estimates its revenue growth in FY24 at 26.5%, with EPS growth of 1,671%. The significant rise in EPS is mainly due to a jump in sales volumes in its luxury vehicles segment. Also, the margin expansion for Jaguar Land Rover to above 8% in FY24E along with a 50% debt reduction (on a consolidated basis) will help achieve bottom-line growth. In FY23, the company posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 2,414.3 crore, compared to a loss in the previous years. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the revenue growth of auto components companies such as Samvardhana Motherson and UNO Minda at 25.8% and 23.4% respectively in FY24. 

    Healthcare facilities company Max Healthcare witnessed its bed occupancy stabilise at 75% levels in 2024. Motilal Oswal expects average revenue per occupied bed to increase by 8% YoY in FY24. Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue growth at 50.4%, with EPS growth of 20.7%. Meanwhile, Apollo Hospitals currently has bed occupancy above 65%, Forecaster estimates revenue growth of 15.4%, with EPS growth of 20.5% in FY24. On the other hand, leisure facilities company, Wonderla Holidays’ is focusing on enhancing customer experience and adding new parks every 3-4 years to drive growth.

    Strong order book and international orders in general industrials drive growth

    Finally, general industrial companies stand to benefit from a strong order book on the back of domestic as well as international orders. Triveni Turbine witnessed export sales growth of 35% YoY to Rs 190 crore in Q3FY24. The company is seeing a surge in order bookings from the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, Turkey, and the Americas. This has led Forecaster to estimate annual revenue growth of 34.6%, with EPS growth of 40% in FY24. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates Bharat Forge’s revenue to grow at 21.3%, with EPS growth at 87.7% in FY24. 

    Meanwhile, ABB India is witnessing demand from civil construction players engaged in building public infrastructure assets as they are focusing on high-quality products, which is helping margins. Forecaster estimates the company’s annual revenue growth for FY24 at 21.8%, with EPS growth of 17.7%.

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    The Baseline
    02 Apr 2024
    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week

    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    1. Dalmia Bharat:

    BOB Capital Markets upgrades this cement products manufacturer to ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 2,443. This indicates an upside of 22.7%. Analysts Milind Raginwar and Shree Kirloskar say, “Dalmia Bharat is set to tap growth opportunities by consolidating its India presence, and its plans to address shortages by enhancing capacity in its major regions.” They expect the company’s market share to grow in FY25-26. 

    Dalmia Bharat plans to enhance capacity utilisation to 27.1 million tonnes in FY26 from 22.9 million tonnes currently. It also plans to raise cement capacity by 13.3% to 49.5 million tonnes in FY26. The analysts are also optimistic about the company due to its plans to enhance its alternative energy sources. Raginwar and Kirloskar expect these measures to improve EBITDA margin by 4.7% points to 21.7% in FY26.

    Given its healthy margins, focus on calibrated growth and limited balance sheet stress, the analysts believe that Dalmia Bharat is poised for sustained growth.

    2. Birlasoft:

    Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this IT consulting and software company with a target price of Rs 950. This indicates an upside of 24.7%. The analysts at Sharekhan met the company’s management to get an update on its outlook and growth plans. They say, “Birlasoft remains well placed to deliver top-quartile performance, guided by a revamped management, a robust order book and deal ramp-ups.” They believe that the company is witnessing a decent flow of cost take-out deals, which should drive a rebound in new deals after the moderation in Q3FY24.

    With the senior leadership hiring complete, the analysts are positive that the management is focused on agile growth. They say that it is investing in emerging technologies such as generative AI along with scaling up its existing capabilities in Microsoft Azure, AWS, GCP, and Cloud platforms. 

    The analysts expect 15% and 23% CAGR growth in sales and profit respectively, over FY25-26. 

    3. BSE:

    HDFC Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this exchange with a target price of Rs 3,050. This indicates an upside of 12.6%.  Analyst Amit Chandra says, “BSE has attained a 20% and 7% notional and premium market share, respectively, largely driven by the rising popularity of its derivatives contracts.” He is optimistic as the Sensex weekly contract has been a success, and Bankex is gaining strength. The analyst believes that BSE derivatives will continue to grow, with the growth led by the scaling of the Bankex contract, a higher volume of proprietary traders, and greater participation of Foreign Portfolio Investors. 

    Chandra believes that the core settlement guarantee fund (SGF) pool is increasing across exchanges, led by regulatory initiatives to mitigate risk. Also, the settlement costs for BSE are 2.5X that of NSE. The analysts expect SGF and settlement costs to fall gradually as economies of scale come into play. Assuming an 11% market share in premium in FY26, the analyst expects derivatives to contribute 43% of the company’s total revenue. He expects a revenue CAGR of 34% over FY25-26, led by a revival in transaction revenue. 

    4. Sagar Cements:

    Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades this cement products manufacturer to ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 246, indicating an upside of 11.6%. The company’s Q3FY24 revenue grew by 16% YoY, which the analyst Vincent Andrews believes was aided by volume growth of 14% YoY and realisation growth of 2.4% YoY. However, capacity utilisation was lower due to state elections, floods and festivals. The analyst reduces volume guidance for FY24 due to low capacity utilisation but expects an improvement in capacity utilisation over the next financial year.

    Andrews expects margin improvement, supported by a ramp-up in recently acquired units, improvement in the green power mix, and deployment of electric trucks and wheel loaders. He believes that the healthy demand outlook, given the strong government focus on infrastructure along with the company’s consistent focus on lowering costs and improving operational efficiencies, will aid growth and margins. The analyst expects revenue to grow at a 17% CAGR over FY25-26.

    5. South Indian Bank:

    ICICI Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ call on this bank with a target price of Rs 35, indicating an upside of 19.5%. The analyst Vishal Narnolia says, “Post restructuring, the bank now is focused on a five-step strategy to steer its growth and profitability.” According to him, this ‘five-step strategy’ includes a focus on accelerating growth in MSME and retail portfolios, improving branch productivity, and lowering a relatively higher cost-to-income ratio. The other two steps are sourcing new business through partnerships and enhancing compliance architecture.

    Narnolia believes that focusing on MSME and retail loans will improve margins. He also notes that a healthy liabilities franchise, recent capital raising and scope to increase the credit-to-deposit ratio will keep margins steady. He expects advances to grow at 13% CAGR over FY25-26. He concludes, “With business transformation imbibed and new competitive leadership, the current trajectory of business restructuring is expected to continue.”

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    28 Mar 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. ABB India:

    This heavy electrical equipment company has risen 10.9% over the past week, reaching its all-time high of Rs 6,472 today. This comes after UBS upgraded the company’s target price to Rs 7,550, implying an upside of 18.7%. The brokerage has retained its 'Buy' rating. UBS cited high double-digit growth across domestic and export orders from the motion and electrification segments. This is the highest target in the consensus – the average target from analysts on ABB India according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster is Rs. 5,148. 

    ABB India has also risen 16.7% over the past month, outperforming the industry by 3.5%. As a result, it features in a screener of companies with strong momentum.

    In Q3FY24, the heavy equipment manufacturer’s order inflows stood at Rs 3,147 crore, up 35% YoY, taking its order backlog to Rs 8,404 crore. ABB's orders have mostly been short-cycle ones. However, its large orders (longer gestation orders - to be executed in 18-24 months) are gaining momentum. The company is also seeing an improvement in large orders and now represents 15% of the total order book. UBS expects ABB India’s order inflow to grow by 23% during 2023–26E. With a strong order pipeline in place, the focus now falls on the execution of projects.  

    According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, the company’s revenue is expected to grow by 21.8% YoY in FY24. In Q3, it's revenue growth was led by new-tech segments, including electrification, robotics, and industrial automation. 

    Sanjeev Sharma, the Managing Director of ABB India says, “We expect growth to remain healthy given the ongoing capex upturn in India.” He cites potential drivers such as data centres, railways, metros, renewable energy and electronics. 

    2. Amber Enterprises India: 

    This consumer electronics company rose by 5.7% on March 21 after it  announced a 50% joint venture (JV) with Resojet, part of the Hyderabad-based Radiant Group of companies. The JV serves as an entry for Amber Enterprises into the manufacturing of fully automatic top-loading and front-loading washing machines and components. The washing machine industry in India has a market size of $2.4 billion (approximately Rs 20,002 crore) as of CY23. Amber Enterprises will also invest Rs 35 crore in the JV to acquire the 50% stake.

    The stock has risen by 13.5% over the past week, helping it appear in a screener of stocks outperforming their industries over the past quarter. 

    The company also previously expanded its electronics manufacturing services portfolio after its subsidiary, ILJIN Electronics, acquired a 60% stake in Ascent Circuits on January 3. Ascent is an Indian manufacturer of various types of printed circuit boards (PCBs) which are widely used across industries, including in aerospace, defence and consumer electronics.

    After the JV announcement, CLSA has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 4,300 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 17.6%. The brokerage believes that the stock has an attractive entry point due to its 2% decline over the past month on the back of an overall decline in the market. It also states that the company’s attempts to diversify will help its non-RAC (non refrigeration and air conditioning) segment to contribute to 50% of its revenue in the next five years. 

    3. PNC Infratech:

    This road and highway construction company rose by 5.8% in the past week. The price rise comes after the firm received ‘Buy’ calls from analysts. ICICI Direct is optimistic and believes that the company has shown healthy execution and a stable margin trajectory. With asset monetisation done, the brokerage expects that resultant cash will free up capital and drive 10% revenue growth in FY24 and FY25, and 15% in FY26. 

    Under the Vivad se Vishwas scheme, PNC Infratech hopes to receive Rs 766 crore from the authorities for three projects accepted. It recently inked a settlement agreement with the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) to receive Rs 255.4 crore under the scheme. The company has also inked an agreement to sell twelve road projects at approx Rs 9,000 crore. This along with the inflow of cash under the Vivad se Vishwas scheme, will help the company have a cash balance which it can utilize for its growth, going forward. 

    In the past month, PNC Infratech won an order worth Rs 1,174 crore to construct a bypass in Madhya Pradesh. Its current order book stands at Rs 17,380 crore. The company is also targeting order inflows of Rs 12,000 crore in FY25. 

    According to Trendlyne Forecaster, PNC Infratech will report profit growth of 10% YoY in Q4FY24 while revenue will increase by 12% YoY. The company appears in a screener for stocks with consistently highest returns over five years.

    4. Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals:

    This household appliances player has fans in the analyst community, with an estimated upside of 23% on its share price and a consensus of ‘buy’. This is despite the stock seeing a decline in March, falling by over 8%. 

    No one likes a long, hot summer. But it’s good news for a company that sells fans and air coolers. Crompton management has mentioned this weather trend as a positive, and key to demand being strong in the upcoming quarter. It expects the core fan segment to grow in double digits as a result. Another major growth driver is premiumization – Crompton’s premium mix is at just 25%, compared to the industry average of 40%.

    Crompton has faced higher costs due to new changes in energy efficiency rules. It hiked prices by 4-5% in fans over the last few months, which has helped it recover most of the cost increase. And over the long-term, these efficiency rules may work out in its favour – rules are being updated every two years, and the market as a result is increasingly shifting to the organized sector.

    A major drag on Crompton Greaves is Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances. The 2022 acquisition of the kitchen appliances company has not yet been a successful union. Crompton expected BGAL to be EPS accretive by FY24, but the business has underperformed. Revenue was down 6% YoY in Q3FY24, compared to 2% growth for its competitor Sunflame. On the upside, the kitchen industry is growing by double-digits, and Crompton Greaves is restructuring channel sales for BGAL to boost growth.  

    5. KEC International:

    This heavy electrical equipment manufacturer rose by 6.1% over the past week. The company recently won orders worth Rs 2,257 crore across its various businesses which  included new international and domestic orders for its transmission & distribution, oil & gas pipelines, cable verticals, and domestic orders for its civil business.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company's net profit to grow by 6.9X to Rs 203.9 crore in Q4FY24 due to its strong order book and favorable government policies, while revenue is expected to improve by 20.7% YoY. The firm beat the Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimates for Q3FY24 for revenue by 1.2%. However, it missed the net profit estimate by 5% due to challenges in the supply chain and issues around the Red Sea.

    KEC’s year to date (YTD) orders stand at Rs 13,000 crore, in which its transmission & distribution segment contributed to 61% of the total. Its total order book stands at approx Rs 38,000 crore, of which 69% are domestic and the rest 31% are international orders. The company is planning to participate in at least 30-35 renewable transmission tenders, adding another vertical to its business. The management expects execution to pick up going ahead for FY25, with a scale-up in execution in international T&D orders, civil, and oil & gas.

    Vimal Kejriwal, Sr. Vice President of the firm, said, “For Q4, I think that margin guidance looks difficult to achieve today. I don’t say that 7% will become 5%, but there could be some downside depending upon the supply chain part, and whether we are able to get some more supplies or more profitable orders. There will definitely be significant improvement QoQ as interest cost will come down so on the profit before tax (PBT) side, you will see improvement happening.”

    Sharekhan recommends a ‘Buy’ for KEC International with a target price of Rs 850. They say “We expect around 15% revenue growth for FY2024-26E with a sequential improvement in its margins. KEC is trading at a P/E of ~17x its FY2026E EPS, which provides room for upside, given its healthy order backlog and order pipeline and the possibility of margin revival. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised price target (PT) of Rs 850”

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    27 Mar 2024
    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week

    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    1. Varun Beverages:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this non-alcoholic beverages company and Pepsi bottler with a target price of Rs 1,550, indicating an upside of Rs 10.6%. Analysts Preeyam Tolia and Suhanee Shome say, “The company achieved a strong all-round performance, despite a weak and challenging demand environment. It saw a volume growth of 13.9% YoY in  CY23 driven by robust double-digit volume expansion.” 

    The analysts are optimistic about the company’s focus on investment and expansion of manufacturing facilities at Bundi and Jabalpur for juices and value-added dairy products. It is also setting up new plants in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Odisha, which will increase its total capacity by 45%. The company also announced the acquisition of South African-based BevCo. The analysts believe that this acquisition will provide significant synergy benefits along with a market expansion opportunity.

    The analyst expects the company to continue its growth momentum led by expansion in its distribution reach mainly in rural areas with an expected addition of 4-5 lakh outlets per year.

    2. Zydus Lifesciences:

    Sharekhan reiterates a ‘Buy’ call on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 1,100. This indicates an upside of 7.9%. In February, the company’s domestic sales and volumes grew 11.2% YoY and 0.8% YoY, respectively. The analysts note that this growth was driven by key brands like Lipaglyn, Monotax and Amicin. 

    Analysts like Zydus Lifesciences’ move to acquire the Liqmed business, which has 16 products approved in the UK and five new products approved in the US. Liqmeds currently is a profitable business with a small revenue size which is expected to scale up. 

    The analysts say, “Zydus is focusing on specialty products both in India and the US, through its rare and orphan disease portfolio which will aid the firm towards reaching $100 million in the specialty portfolio by FY26.” They expect Zydus Lifesciences’ earnings to grow by 15% CAGR from FY24-26 led by approvals in multiple high-margin businesses like specialty and injectables, leading to double-digit growth in both the US and India.

    3. Granules India:

    ICICI Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ call on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 515, indicating an upside of 18.1%. Analyst Siddhant Khandekar is positive about the company due to its plans to expand its product and therapeutic basket. He says, “The company is focusing more on formulations to drive growth backed by volumes, especially in the US and Europe. It plans to file eight products in the US every year. The analyst likes the firm also due to its backward integration plans with a green technology focus. 

    Khandekar says that despite its recent history of flat revenue growth, Granules India’s margins have improved. He believes that this was a result of 47% YoY growth in formulations to Rs 766 crore, driven by increased volumes in the US across all major products, especially controlled substances. He recommends the call on the back of the company’s compelling risk-reward matrix and its ability to play in its strength areas.

    4. Mahanagar Gas:

    HDFC Securities recommends a ‘Buy’ call on this utilities company with a target price of Rs 1,535. This indicates an upside of 12.8%. Analysts Harshad Katkar, Nilesh Ghuge, Akshay Mane and Prasad Vadnere believe that the company’s recent price correction – due to the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board’s notice on the end of infrastructure exclusivity in Mumbai – is overdone. The analysts say that this notice will not have a material impact on the company’s operations as it would be extremely difficult for any competitor to access significantly cheaper natural gas and set up a new CNG station network at similar costs and locations.

    The analysts are also optimistic about the company due to the recent improvement in new CNG vehicle registrations. New CNG vehicle registrations for February 2024 rose 64% YoY to 6,196 units. They expect the company’s volume growth to accelerate, led by its increased focus on expanding the CNG retail network, its marketing efforts, improvement in CNG vehicle registrations, incremental volume growth from UEPL acquisition, and additional volumes from the industrial segment. They expect a 9% CAGR volume growth over FY24-26.

    5. Prince Pipes & Fittings:

    Geojit BNP Paribas reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this plastic products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 659, indicating an upside of 15.9%. In 9MFY24, the company’s revenue declined by 6.1% YoY, attributed to a drop in realization. However, analyst Anil R believes that going forward, steady real estate sector and plumbing demand will drive volume growth, and he anticipates revenue to grow at an 18.6% CAGR from FY24-26. He expects the margins to remain healthy at 13.4% over FY24-26, supported by lower input prices and a better product mix. 

    Anil R is also optimistic about the company’s acquisition of the Aquel bathware brand. He believes that at peak capacity, the revenue contribution from Aquel would be Rs 120 crore. He concludes, “We anticipate that healthy demand from construction and plumbing, a strong summer, better pricing actions, and stable input prices will drive volumes.”

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    22 Mar 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Bharat Electronics:

    This defence stock rose by 1.2% in the past week outperforming the Nifty 50, as it won orders worth Rs 1,940.4 crore from the Indian Navy. The first order for the supply of communication and electronic warfare sensors is worth Rs 847.7 crore, while the second order for the supply of line-replaceable units is worth Rs 1,092.7 crore. The company also announced a second interim dividend worth Rs 0.7 per equity share for FY24. 

    The company’s YTD FY24 order inflow stands at Rs 32,716.3 crore (compared to Rs 20,000 crore in FY23). The total current order book is to be around Rs 73,500 crore. According to the management, execution for most projects will occur between three to four years. 

    Bharat Electronics manufactures specialised electronics for the Indian defence industry. It is engaged in the development of new products, technology modules, subsystems and components. It is well-positioned to capture growth opportunities in Indian defence and space electronics, as analysts expect this space to grow at 13-14% CAGR over FY24-27. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates profit to grow by 8% YoY in Q4FY24 while revenue improves by 28% YoY. 

    Bharat Electronics currently generates around 90% of its revenue from the defence sector, supplying products to the Indian Government, while the non-defence segment contributes only around 9%. However, ICICI Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ call as it believes that the company’s strategy to diversify into the non-defence segment and increase exports & services will aid growth and de-risk its business. The brokerage also expects revenue and profit to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% & 17.6% respectively over FY24-26. The company appears in a screener for stocks with price or recommendation upgrades by brokers in the past month.

    2. Swan Energy:

    This realty stock has had a topsy-turvy week. It plunged by 23.8% in the two weeks ending March 15 after IFFCO (Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Limited - A government-owned fertilizer producer) moved the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) against the company and their joint venture (JV), Triumph Offshore. It asked the tribunal to restrain their JV firm from passing any resolution without its approval and issuing any shares to lenders against loans. 

    IFFCO owns 49% of the JV (Triumph Offshore), while Swan Energy is the majority stakeholder with a 51% stake. The JV’s board consists of three nominees from Swan, two from IFFCO and two independent directors. IFFCO alleges that the JV signed an agreement with a consortium of banks to secure a term loan of Rs 1,604 crore by mortgaging the entire share capital of IFFCO. 

    However, the stock recovered to rise by 27.7% over the past week after the NCLT denied interim relief to IFFCO and directed the JV to hold a board meeting before April 4 to discuss issues raised by the minority shareholder. The minority holder also alleged that the JV is pre-paying debt which could result in dilution of IFFCO’s shareholding in Triumph. 

    On March 1, the company raised Rs. 3,000 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP). The issue price of the QIP was set at Rs. 670 per share. The funds raised through the QIP will be used for the modernisation of the recently acquired Reliance Naval and Engineering shipyard at Pipavav. Additionally, a portion of the funds will be allocated for project expansion and debt reduction.

    After securing these funds, the company’s subsidiary, Swan LNG, prepaid a loan of Rs 2,206 crore along with interest to a consortium of banks on March 2. The company’s subsidiary Veritas also won an order worth Rs 155.9 crore in a consortium with Genesys International Corp from the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). 

    3. Sun Pharmaceuticals:

    This pharmaceutical company is nearing its all-time highs following approval from the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration for Winlevi, which is used to treat acne in people aged 12 and above. With approval from the Australian health authority, Sun Pharma will have the exclusive rights to sell the product in the country starting Q1FY25.

    Sun Pharma’s global specialty segment sales, constituting 19.2% of overall sales, will get a boost from the recent additional marketing approval for Winlevi. According to Statista, the skin treatment market in Australia and Oceania is expected to grow at 6.0% CAGR during FY24-28, reaching USD 610 million.

    However, due to deviations in manufacturing practices norms, the drug manufacturer had to recall 55,000 bottles of generic medication for treating gout from the American market. The US FDA stated that microbial contamination was reported in stagnant water in the duct of the manufacturing equipment. The affected lot was produced at Sun Pharma's Dadra-based plant.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates that the company’s annual net profit growth will be 9% in FY24 compared to FY23. It estimates revenues in FY24 to grow by 9.9%.

    Managing Director Dilip Shanghvi plans to increase the company's R&D spending to USD 1 billion in the next three to five years. The company aims to raise its R&D spend from the current 7% of revenues, to 9%. The company spends 40% of its overall R&D budget to develop new products. Shanghvi noted that while the R&D amount will increase, the percentage spent on new products will continue to be the same.

    KR Choksey maintains a 'Buy' rating on Sun Pharma, and expects that global specialty sales will receive a lift from the addition of Australian marketing rights. Consequently, they have raised the company's sales and net income estimates to a CAGR of 10.9% and 16.0%, respectively, up from the previous estimates of 10.6% and 15.3%. With a target price of Rs 1,827, the stock has a potential upside of 13.6%.

    4. Cochin Shipyard:

    This marine ports & services company has risen by 12.2% in the past week. The company recently launched its first indigenously developed hydrogen fuel cell ferry, and has also started work on its Sea Shuttle zero emission container project, which is being built for Samskip, a Netherlands logistics firm.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates profits to decline by 13.5% YoY due to high working capital requirements in Q4FY24, while revenue is expected to improve by 49% YoY. The firm beat Trendlyne Forecaster estimates for Q3FY24 for net profit by 86.1% and for revenue by 11.8% thanks to growth in its ship building and ship repair segments.

    Cochin Shipyard’s current orderbook stands at Rs 21,500 crore in ship-building, with above Rs 800 crore worth of contracts in the ship-repair segment. The company's capabilities have improved after the establishment of its new dry dock facility and International Ship Repair Facility (ISRF). It plans to add four more workstations, which are expected to be completed by mid-2024. 

    Cochin Shipyard’s total export orders stand at around Rs 2,688 crore and it is also seeing strong demand from various types of vessels plying within Europe, as an estimated 2,500 vessels are scheduled to be replaced with green vessels.

    Madhu S Nair, Chairman and MD of the firm, said, “We would exceed our all-time best gross revenue turnover targets. And for FY25, we will try to raise it by 12-15% on top of that. EBITDA margin would be around 18-19% for FY25.”  

    ICICI Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ on Cochin Shipyard with a target price of Rs 1,055. They say “We expect CSL to witness significant YoY growth in revenues & profitability over FY24-26E, led by execution pick-up in both segments and increasing share of the margin accretive ship-repair segment. We estimate revenue and PAT to grow at around 23% & 36% CAGR respectively over FY23-26E as against the de-growth seen over FY20-23.”

    5. Avenue Supermarts (DMart):

    This billionaire-owned discount hypermarket chain touched a fresh 52 week high today, and rose 6.9% over the past week. On Thursday, CLSA initiated a buy call on the Damani-owned company with a target price of Rs. 5,107, implying an upside of 18.8%. This is the highest target in the consensus – the average target from analysts on DMart according to Trendlyne Forecaster is Rs. 4,108. 

    DMart opened 17 new stores in 9MFY24 and 90 stores in the last two years to hit a total of 341, and its management has highlighted a focus on rural areas and new states in its ongoing expansion. CLSA expects these new store additions to ramp up considerably and triple in the next ten years (by FY34), as the chain builds up its network to a store to population density ratio like Walmart in the US. 

    With only 5% of DMart’s addressable Indian market in the organized sector, the half a billion dollar opportunity here is a large pie. Analysts argue that D-Mart has a better than even chance of winning a significant market share here, since it offers the lowest prices on its range of food, FMCG, general merchandise and apparel products.

    The company also recently appointed former SEBI chief Chandrashekhar Bhave as chairman of the company's board. Bhave, who has previously been on the boards of Tejas Networks and M&M Financial Services, will take over on April 1.

    For investors, DMart may be in a sweet spot currently in its valuation – it is in the PE   Buy/Neutral Zone. The stock had seen consecutive monthly declines between July and October 2023, pulling it into a more affordable PE range compared to its historical trend. However even at this lower level, its PE stands at 107, which is above the industry average.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    20 Mar 2024
    IPOs: Outperformers and underperformers in the past three months

    IPOs: Outperformers and underperformers in the past three months

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    After a certain stage in their life cycle, companies usually need to raise funds or let the early investors in the company cash out their investments. To do this, they go public via Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). This is an opportunity for public investors to put money in promising, and often young companies. Both institutional and retail investors tend to …

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    After a certain stage in their life cycle, companies usually need to raise funds or let the early investors in the company cash out their investments. To do this, they go public via Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). This is an opportunity for public investors to put money in promising, and often young companies. Both institutional and retail investors tend to invest in IPOs for long-term as well as listing gains.  

    In the past three months, 30 mainline companies have gone through an IPO and have listed on the bourses with an average listing gain of 28%. The overwhelmingly positive IPO listing numbers attracts more investors. All the IPOs over the past three months have been oversubscribed, with more than 80% of them subscribed over 10 times of available shares.

    Today, we take a look at the performance of IPOs since December 2023. You can find the complete data for all the mainline IPOs in the table below:

    Juniper Hotels, the biggest IPO of the past three months, lists at an 11.5% premium

    Mainline IPOs raised approx Rs 20,400 crore from public offerings. Out of all of the IPOs, 8 had issue sizes above Rs 1,000 crore. Juniper Hotels, a hotels company, being the largest IPO, had an issue size of Rs 1,800 crore. It was followed by Entero Healthcare Solutions (healthcare services provider) and Inox India (general industrials company) with issue sizes of Rs 1,600 crore and Rs 1,459.3 crore respectively.

      Juniper Hotels is the biggest IPO with an issue size of Rs 1,800 crore

    Small size, big returns: Vibhor Steel Tubes gives the highest return

    Despite being the smallest mainline IPO with an issue size of Rs 72.2  crore, the iron and steel products manufacturer, Vibhor Steel Tubes had the highest listing gains, debuting at a 195.5% premium. However, it has since fallen and is currently trading 73.5% higher than its issue price as investors cash out. 

    BLS E-Services, a commercial supplies and services company, listed at a premium of 171.1% and is currently trading 129% higher than its issue price. 

    Azad Engineering currently outperforms its listing price

    Motisons Jewellers (gems and jewellery company) and Azad Engineering (industrial machinery company) are listed at a premium of 88.3% and 29.3%, respectively. However, these two companies have gained sharply post-listing, and are currently trading at 140% and 131.3% higher than their respective issue prices. 

    Nine mainline IPOs in the past three months disappoint, list at a discounted price 

    Even though most IPOs’ performed well, 9 of the 30 listed IPOs were at a discount.

    J G Chemicals listed at a discount of 16.4%

    Specialty chemicals company, J G Chemicals, was the least successful IPO, listing at a disappointing 16.4% discount and is currently trading 13.3% lower than the issue price. EPack Durables (consumer electronics company), Muthoot Microfin (finance company), and Capital Small Finance Bank (bank) are among the top losers, currently trading below their issue price. They have lost 29.1%, 30.7%, and 28.6% respectively, from their issue prices. 

    Most of the companies that listed at a discount have further extended their losses, while three companies that debuted at a premium have pared their gains and are currently trading below their issue prices.

    Credo Brands pares gains, trades lower than issue price

    Happy Forgings (general industrials company) was listed at a premium of 21.3% but is currently trading at a 2.7% discount to its issue price. Similarly, Credo Brands Marketing (retailing) and GPT Healthcare (diversified consumer services) were listed positively but since listing, have led to investors losing 33.4% and 9.8% of their application amount. 

    All IPOs in the past three months were fully subscribed

    Out of 30 IPOs, 25 were subscribed more than 10 times, while all the IPOs have been fully or over-subscribed. Vibhor Steel Tubes being the smallest mainline IPO in the group, raised Rs 72.2 crore via a fresh issue of 48 lakh shares. It was oversubscribed 298.9 times. It was followed by BLS E-Services and Motisons Jewellers, which were subscribed for 162.5 and 159.6 times their issue size. 

    Vibhor Steel Tubes gets subscribed 298.9x

    Amongst the least subscribed IPOs were Entero Healthcare Solutions, Juniper Hotels, Capital Small Finance Bank, GPT Healthcare, and Gopal Snacks (packaged foods company), all of which had subscription rates below 10 times their available shares.

    Recent numbers show a correlation between listing prices and subscription rates

    Retail investors tend to invest in IPOs with high subscription rates as they believe there is a correlation between that and listing gains. Is that actually the case? The chart below can help us clarify this.. 

    The most subscribed companies delivered highest listing gains

    Vibhor Steel Tubes, with the highest subscription rate, has the highest listing gains, while India Shelter Finance Corp (housing finance company) has a lower subscription rate as well as a low listing gain. Even though the trend between listing gains and subscription rates is not exactly the same, one can observe a strong correlation between them. 

    However, the correlation between subscription and listing rate drops where the subscription rate is lower. J G Chemicals listed at a discount of 16.4%, while it was subscribed 27.8 times. On the contrary, Juniper Hotels is listed at a premium of 11.5%, while it was just subscribed 2.1 times.

    All companies from the general industrials sector listed at a premium 

    The 30 companies that were listed in the past three months were from 17 sectors. We can draw some observations from the sectors with multiple listings. The average listing rate of the banking and finance sector is -4% with three companies listing at a discount and one at a premium. All the companies from the general industrial sector listed positively with an average listing gain of 31.1%. The commercial services and supplies sector’s average gain was 80%.

    The banking & finance sector had 4 IPOs listing at an average of -4%

    However, one cannot always depend on sectoral averages. For instance, diversified consumer services had varied listing gains for each company, although it had an average listing gain of 3.4%. Entero Healthcare Solutions is listed at a discount of 8.6%, while Medi Assist Healthcare Services is listed at a premium of 11%.

    While investing in an IPO, one should consider its subscription rate, but it is only one of the variables. There are many other factors, such as valuation, market conditions, financial stability, as well as broader risks that may affect the listing price of a company. Similarly, it is not necessary for a company to list at a premium just because it belongs to a certain sector. Investors should conduct thorough research before making a decision to invest.

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    The Baseline
    19 Mar 2024
    Chart of the week: Some mainline IPOs deliver strong gains, but SMEs have the biggest winners and losers

    Chart of the week: Some mainline IPOs deliver strong gains, but SMEs have the biggest winners and losers

    By Satyam Kumar

    The Indian IPO market typically slows down in the six months before the Lok Sabha elections. But 2023-24 has bucked the trend due to increased market confidence, and greater certainty around the election result – most analysts predict a comfortable win for Prime Minister Modi and the BJP. 

    In the last six months alone, 49 companies have collectively raised Rs 41,000 crore via the IPO route, according to Trendlyne’s IPO dashboard. As interest rates remain high, many companies are going public to fund their operations and growth. The market’s recent track record of strong listing gains has also drawn investors to IPO offerings. 

    But if there is a suspiciously loud party happening, authorities tend to sit up and notice. In the case of IPOs, it’s the SEBI regulator. On March 11, SEBI Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch expressed concerns about manipulation in the Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) segment of the capital markets, and the possibility of over-stretched valuations.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we take a look at Trendlyne’s IPO Dashboard to analyse top-performing and worst-performing mainline and SME IPOs in terms ofcurrent gains/losses, along with their listing gains/losses in the past six months.

    BLS E-Services & Tata Technologies saw the biggest listing gains, but have fallen since

    BLS E-Services is a digital service provider that offers services to major banks in India, assisted e-services, and e-governance services at the grassroots level. This company gavestellar listing gains of 171% over its issue price, but has fallen since. It is currently trading at 141% over its issue price.

    Operating primarily in the automotive space, Tata Technologies is an engineering and R&D company. It listed on the bourses on November 30, 2023, with gains of 163%. It currently trades at a premium of 110% over its issue price. Profit booking by investors looking for IPO gains and a high valuation gap (at the time of listing) compared to its peers have contributed to this decline. Its offer for sale of 609 lakh shares was oversubscribed by 69 times.

    IREDA, Motisons Jewellers, and Azad Engineering are the best performers overall

    The top performer among mainline IPOs is the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) which listed at a premium of 88% and is currently trading at 302% above its issue price. This financial institution plays a strategic role in the government’s renewable energy initiative. With an issue size of Rs 2,150 crore, it was oversubscribed by 38.8 times and listed on the bourses on November 29, 2023.

    Motisons Jewellers and Azad Engineering also lead the pack in terms of current gains after listing at a premium of  88% and 29% respectively. Both companies raised capital to reduce their debt obligations and fund working capital requirements. 

    For the top-performing SME IPOs, the sky seems to be the limit

    Goyal Salt raised Rs 18.6 crore to invest in product quality and marketing. Its fresh issue of 49 lakh shares was oversubscribed by 267 times. The company listed at 258% premium and is currently up 318% from the issue price. 

    Leading the pack in the SME segment is Trident Techlabs with current gains 483% above its issue price. The company listed on the exchanges on December 29, 2023, posting stellar listing gains of 194%. This SME is involved mainly in engineering and power system solutions. The company raised Rs 16 crore with a fresh issue of 46 lakh shares mainly to fund its working capital requirement. Trident’s IPO was oversubscribed by 502 times.

    Australian Premium Solar (India) specialises in manufacturing solar panels and provides end-to-end solutions for residential, agricultural, and commercial applications. The company posted listing gains of 172% and currently trades 286% above its issue price. Its fresh issue of 52 lakh shares was oversubscribed by 432 times listed on the bourses on January 18, 2024.

    SAR Televentures, with a listing gain of 100% over its issue price, focuses on installing and commissioning 4G and 5G towers, Optical Fibre Cable (OFC) Systems, and dealing in network equipment. The company raised Rs 24.8 crore to support its provisions and install 4G and 5G towers. The stock currently trades at a premium of 275%, after listing 101% over its issue price.

    With plans to set up a manufacturing facility, Amic Forging raised Rs 34.8 crore. Their fresh issue of 28 lakh shares was oversubscribed by 269 times. The stock listed on the bourses on December 6, 2023, at a premium of 99%, and the company is currently trading 390% above its issue price. As the name suggests, the company specialises in manufacturing forged components catering to various industries.

    Credo Brands and Vrundavan Plantation trade at steep discounts post-listing

    Worst performers among SMEs sink deeper than mainline

    After looking at the top-performing IPOs, let’s take a look at mainline and SME IPOs which are trading at deep discounts to the issue price. 

    Credo Brands Marketing raised Rs 550 crore via an offer for sale (OFS). The company’s promoters were looking to exit. Its offer for sale of 196 lakh shares was oversubscribed by 52 times. On December 27, 2023, the company posted a moderate listing gain of 12%. However, the company is currently trading 37% below its issue price as investors booked profits after listing.

    Capital Small Finance Bank started operations as India’s first small finance bank (SFB) in 2016. The company has a strong presence in semi-urban and rural areas with a branch-based operating model. It intends to use the proceeds from the fresh issue to strengthen its capital base and fulfil future capital needs. The SFB listed at a discount of 7%, and currently trades 28% below its issue price.

    Suraj Estate Developers has been in the real estate business since 1986, developing properties in both residential and commercial sectors in South Central Mumbai. The company raised Rs 400 crore via a fresh issue to settle debt obligations, and acquire land and development rights. The stock is trading 20% below its issue price, after listing at a discount of 7%.

    Muthoot Microfin is a microfinance institution that offers small loans to female customers, particularly in rural areas of India. Muthoot Microfin raised Rs 960 crore through a combination of fresh issue and OFS. The company will use the net proceeds from the fresh issue to strengthen its capital base and fulfil future capital needs. The company listed at a discount of 9% and currently trades 30% below the issue price. 

    Consumer electronics company EPack Durables is the second-largest room air conditioner original design manufacturer in India in terms of the number of units manufactured in FY23. With a promoter holding of 42.6% post-IPO, the company listed at a discount of 10% to its issue price and currently trades 30% lower than its issue price.

    Worst-performing SME IPOs lose half their value 

    When looking at the best and worst performing SME and Mainline IPOs, one thing stands out: high risk equals high rewards. SME IPOs tend to have higher listing and current gains, but also have the worst listing and current losses. 

    Some SME IPOs have already lost nearly half their value since listing. Investors need to do their due diligence on IPOs, especially during a rising market, when the companies tend to make use of the positive sentiment in the market for listing.

    Vrundavan Plantation is mainly engaged in the nursery business, and stands out as the worst-performing IPO. It has declined 61% below its issue price after listing at a discount of 6% on November 6, 2023. The company raised Rs 15.3 crore for the repayment of its working capital and unsecured loans. Its fresh issue of 14 lakh shares was oversubscribed by 18 times. However, the issue had not garnered any subscriptions from qualified institutional investors.

    Advertising and media company Graphisads raised Rs 53.4 crore mainly for repayment of provisions and to meet working capital requirements. After listing at a moderate discount of 4.6%, the company currently trades 54% below its issue price.

    Meanwhile, Italian Edibles with its wide range of confectionery foods under its OfCour’s brand has two manufacturing units in Indore. The company has raised Rs 26.7 crore proposing to set up another manufacturing unit and repayment of borrowings. The company trades at a discount of 48% below its issue price. 

    Vivaa Tradecom is trading at a discount of 49% to its issue price. The company is mostly engaged in the apparel and accessories business. It listed at a discount of 17% on October 12, 2023.

    Lastly, sugar company MVK Agro Food Product listed on the bourses at a discount of 31%, and went further down, currently trading at a discount of 47% below its issue price. The company raised Rs 66 crore to set up a greenfield unit for manufacturing ethanol, and generation and bottling of Bio-CNG and fertiliser.

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