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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    15 Dec 2022
    Screener of the Week: Rising durable stocks in the PE buy zone, with low volatility 

    Screener of the Week: Rising durable stocks in the PE buy zone, with low volatility 

    By Tejas MD

    This stock screener looks at PE Buy Zone stocks with high Trendlyne durability scores, which outperformed both the benchmark index and their industry in the past month.

    These stocks also have a beta lower than 1, meaning their stock prices are less volatile than the overall market. Beta is a measure of the volatility (or systematic risk) of a company compared to the market as a whole. It is important to note that this doesn't necessarily mean the company has fewer risks. It implies that its systematic market risk is lower compared to the benchmark index. It is possible for a firm to have low systematic risk but high firm-specific risks. 

    Just twenty five companies from the Nifty 500 made it to the list. Companies from the pharma and agrochemical industries are well represented. The top two companies that rose the highest, outperforming both the industry and the benchmark, were Bank of Maharashtra and  Sharda Cropchem.

    Bank of Maharashtra's share price rose over 50% in the past month. PSU banks have been in the news lately as the industry posted promising Q2FY23 results. Bank of Maharastra's revenue has been increasing for the past eight quarters. In addition, this PSU Bank's asset quality improving with rising net interest margins also excited investors.

    Sharda Cropchem rose over 25% in the past month on the back of good Q2FY23 results. However, the company still trades in the PE Buy Zone, which means that its TTM PE ratio is lower than its historical PE ratio. According to Trendlyne's DVM classification, the stock comes under "strong performer, under radar stocks". 

    You can find more screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    13 Dec 2022
    Five Analyst Picks with High Durability Scores

    Five Analyst Picks with High Durability Scores

    By Suhas Reddy

    This week we take a look at five analyst picks with high Trendlyne Durability scores. A high durability score (>60) indicates a company with strong financial health and management quality.

    1. Greenpanel Industries: BOB Capital maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this forest products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 595. This indicates an upside of 72%. Greenpanel Industries has a Trendlyne Durability score of 90. 

    After an interaction with Greenpanel’s CFO Venkatramani, analyst Ruchitaa Maheshwari said, “Greenpanel Industries has strong growth prospects due to its leadership position in India’s fast-growing, medium-density fibreboard (MDF) market, coupled with an improving balance sheet and return ratios.” The forest products manufacturer's management is optimistic about demand recovery in Q4 despite MDF and plywood businesses slowing down due to the festival season in Q3.

    The company has plans to incur capex to the tune of Rs 600 crore for new MDF brownfield capacity and add 400 dealers to the MDF business, as well as 40-50 dealers to plywood by the end of FY23. Maheshwari models revenue and profit CAGR of 13% and 15% over FY22-24, aided by better capacity utilisation at the MDF facility and EBITDA margins from operating leverage.

    1. Central Bank of India: LKP Securities recommends a ‘Buy’ on this bank with a target price of Rs 37, indicating an upside of 9%. The bank has a Trendlyne Durability score of 75. 

    Analyst Ajit Kumar Kabi is optimistic about the bank as it returned to profitability in FY22, after incurring losses in FY16. It also reported consistent growth in net profit over the past six quarters. He said the bank has been reporting stable credit growth with an improving cash deposit ratio, and its recovery is in line with the guidance. 

    On the back of the digital lending platform, Kabi expects the bank’s loan book to fatten cautiously. “We believe that the asset quality hurdles are behind it and the bank will witness gradual improvement in profitability,” he concluded.

    1. Solar Industries India: ICICI Securities upgrades its rating on this explosives manufacturer to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ and raises its target price to Rs 4,760 from Rs 4,225. This indicates an upside of 16.3%. Solar Industries has a Trendlyne Durability score of 70.

    Analysts Amit Dixit, Mohit Lohia and Pritish Urumkar believe that the company is well-placed to capitalise on the expected ramp-up in orders from the defence sector. They are positive about the firm’s prospects, given its strong technological capabilities, growing order book and focus on the high-margin defence explosives segment. They added, “The company has sufficient capacity, expertise and land bank to increase revenue contribution from the high-margin defence business.”

    The analysts also expect Solar Industries’ export book to surge from its current level of Rs 300 crore in the coming years. This is due to its product expertise on missiles and rockets fitting well into the Centre’s push towards indigenisation and increasing defence exports. They expect the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 47.2% over FY22-24.

    1. ICICI Bank: IDBI Capital maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this large-cap bank with a target price of Rs 1,260. This indicates an upside of 35.4%. In Q2FY23, the company’s standalone net profit grew 37.1% YoY to Rs 7,557.8 crore and revenue rose 22.6% YoY. ICICI Bank has a Trendlyne Durability score of 65. 

    Analysts at IDBI Capital believe that the bank’s focus on improving digitalisation and technological capabilities will aid this leg of growth. It also aims to improve customer experience and simplify all processes from boarding to servicing through digitalisation. “The bank has created a position of Chief Data Officer for the same and increased its technology spend as a percentage of operating expenses to 9% (vs 6% in FY20). It expects the spend to remain at elevated levels in near future,” they added. The analysts expect the bank’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 20.1% over FY22-25. 

    1. Motherson Sumi Wiring India: ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this auto parts & equipment manufacturer with a target price of Rs 75, indicating an upside of 25.9%. Motherson Sumi Wiring India has a Trendlyne Durability score of 60.

    Analysts Shashank Kanodia and Raghvendra Goyal believe that the company is “a good proxy to play upon the recovery in the domestic automobile space with a superlative return ratio profile (RoCE of 40-50%) and structural levers for long-term growth”. They expect the company to benefit in the long term on the back of increasing components per vehicle along with increasing electrification. 

    The analysts also pointed out that the company is committed to achieving an annual revenue of $36 billion by FY25 and intensifying expansion into non-auto-related segments. They expect the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 25.9% over FY22-25. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    09 Dec 2022
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. JK Lakshmi Cement: This cement stock touched an all-time high of Rs 860.4 on Thursday. Trendlyne’s Technicals suggest that the stock gained more than 19% over the past month and over 70% in three months. Its trajectory has been interesting given that it rose for five consecutive sessions from November 28, before breaking the streak on December 6 as markets fell. The gain is because of a sector report by ICICI Securities, which suggests that if cement companies take better price hikes in Q3FY23 and global crude oil falls or maintains at current levels (between $85-$90 per barrel), they will see a significant improvement in margins. 

    Fall in crude prices will definitely help JK Lakshmi Cement’s input prices go down. In Q2FY23, the company’s power and fuel costs rose by 49.9% YoY to Rs 418.85 crore, which caused a dent in net profit as it fell nearly 27% YoY. The management, in its earnings call, mentioned that their profits were affected by high global fuel prices. They tried to mitigate these problems by expanding volumes, improving product mix and increasing sales of their premium products. The company is currently working on increasing its capacity with its subsidiary, Udaipur Cement Works. The plant is expected to be ready by March 2024 and start contributing towards revenue growth in FY24. Axis Securities expects JK Lakshmi Cement to clock revenue CAGR of 16% over FY22-24E.

    Axis Securities expects Centre’s spending in the infrastructure space to boost demand for cement. The housing and infrastructure segment consumes nearly 80-90% of the total cement produced in the country and this bodes well for cement stocks. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates operating revenue to be 11% more than Rs 1,302.7 crore in Q2FY23. However, JK Lakshmi Cement missed its estimated target (Rs 1,347 crore) by 3.3% in Q2. Consensus recommendation suggests 15 analysts recommending a ‘Buy’ on the stock.

    1. Westlife Development: This quick-service restaurant company, which holds the master franchise for McDonald's in the western and southern parts of India, held ‘Strategy day’ on December 1. In reaction, its stock price rose in the subsequent three trading sessions, hitting its life-high on Tuesday. As a result, it features in a screener of companies with share prices above their short, medium and long-term moving averages. Post Westlife’s investor day, brokerages like Axis Direct and Edelweiss also remained positive about the company’s prospects as they both maintained ‘Buy’ ratings. 

    What excited investors could be the management’s ambitious target of a three-fold jump in sales, between Rs 4,000 crore and Rs 4,500 crore, in the next five years. Westlife Development plans to drive revenue growth on the back of network expansion, widening of product mix and an omnichannel approach. 

    QSR companies have been expanding rapidly post-Covid as they look to offset slowing sales growth by adding more stores. Despite strong Q2FY23 results, QSR companies' share prices fell as investors had expected higher growth. The only exception to this was Westlife, which rose after its results. In fact, it is the only QSR company that beat the Nifty 50 in the past quarter in terms of price change. 

    Going forward, the company’s management intends to focus on expansion in tier 2 cities. Akshay Jatia, Executive Director of Westlife Development, said, “Non-metro towns continue to post 1.6x growth vs metros on the pre-COVID base of Q2FY20.” 

    1. Dabur India: This FMCG company touched its 52-week high of Rs 610.8 on Wednesday after Morgan Stanely upgraded its rating on the stock to ‘Overweight’ and raised its target price to Rs 660 from the earlier Rs 578. The rally was also backed by the rise in the Nifty FMCG index in the past week. 

    Morgan Stanley expects Dabur’s top-line growth and margins to improve in H2FY23 and FY24 due to rural recovery and softening of inflation. It said 45% of the company’s revenue comes from the rural economy, and recovery of rural demand will be positive. It also expects strong growth in Dabur’s food and beverage portfolio, driven by rural opportunities for beverages, and its recent acquisition of Badshah in the spices category. ICICI Securities also expects an improvement in the volume growth of FMCG companies, backed by the recovery of rural demand and monsoons. As a result, Dabur features in a screener of companies where brokers upgraded recommendations or target prices in the past three months.

    Recently, Dabur announced its entry into the D2C space by launching its website, Dabur Shop. Dabur’s CEO Mohit Malhotra said this will become a one-stop shop for its entire product portfolio over time. The company also announced its foray into the women’s personal hygiene space on Wednesday, as part of its social initiative to support women’s health. This launch would strengthen Dabur’s presence in the personal products space.

    1. Macrotech Developers: This realty company rose nearly 3% in intraday trade after it announced the launch of its Qualified Institutions Placement (QIP) of equity shares on Wednesday. The promoters, with this QIP, intend to reduce their stake to 75% from 82.2% to achieve the minimum public shareholding of 25%, as stipulated by SEBI. According to reports, the management aims to raise around Rs 3,500 crore from the sale of its shares through the QIP route.

    Meanwhile, the Lodha Group company gained nearly 17% in the past month after announcing the launch of 16 new projects in H2FY23. The combined estimated sales potential of these projects stands at Rs 10,300 crore, with a total area of 7.3 million square feet. These new launches are a mix of fully owned and joint development projects. The management expects the demand for housing during the festive season to remain robust despite the rise in home loan interest rates. It believes that a long-term upcycle in housing has started in India. 

    The company’s collection rose 24% YoY in Q2FY23 but its revenue fell 16.9% YoY, posting a loss of Rs 933.1 crore. This was due to a one-off provision of Rs 1,177 crore made for a loan to its British arm, Lodha Developers UK. Excluding the provision, the firm’s net profit in Q2 grew 28% YoY to Rs 367 crore. The realty firm also shows up in a screener for companies with improving net cash flow over the past two years and the consensus recommendation for the stock is a ‘Buy’ rating.

    1. JSW Steel & Power: This iron & steel company has been on a rise since November 28, following a series of pledge releases over the past two weeks. Siddeshwari Tradex, a promoter entity of the company, released 16 lakh pledged shares (or 0.16% stake) to Standard Chartered Capital and 10 lakh shares (or 0.1% stake) to RBL Bank on November 29. 

    Opelina Sustainable Services, also a promoter entity of the company, released 1 lakh pledged shares (or 0.01% stake) to JM Financial Credit Solutions on December 2 and 16 lakh shares (or 0.16% stake) to Aditya Birla Finance on Monday. 

    According to reports, Jindal Steel & Power won a Rs 410-crore bid for the liquidation of a power plant of the debt-ridden Monnet Power in Odisha. The new power plant will supply energy to the company’s steel plant in Angul, which is in the process of expansion. 

    The stock ranks high in Trendlyne’s checklist with a score of 52.2%. It also features in a screener with stocks that have momentum and return on equity (RoE).


    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    07 Dec 2022
    Stock Screener: Stocks with high forecaster estimates for capex, revenue and profit

    Stock Screener: Stocks with high forecaster estimates for capex, revenue and profit

    By Abdullah Shah

    Continuing with the investments theme this week, we take a look at companies which will incur a big capex in the ongoing fiscal year. This screener reflects companies which may see over 20% rise in their capex, revenue and net profit in FY23, according to Trendlyne’s forecaster. It reflects 50 stocks from Nifty 500 and 4 stocks from the Nifty 50 index. 

    The screener features stocks from industries like cars & utility vehicles, heavy electrical equipment, non-alcoholic beverages, other apparels & accessories, and travel support services. Major stocks listed in the screener are IRCTC, Page Industries, Adani Ports, Asian Paints, Varun Beverages and Maruti Suzuki India.

    IRCTC may see the highest capex rise of over 3X YoY in FY23. Analysts also expect the company’s annual revenue to jump by over 75% YoY in FY23 . The company’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO) expects the capex outlay to be Rs 250 crore for the new office and Rs 100 crore to upgrade the IT services.

    The forecaster sees Asian Paints capex rising by over 94% YoY in FY23. The company also announced a new capex plan of Rs 6,750 crore post its Q2FY23 results. It seeks to expand its overall paints capacity by 30% in the next three years.

    Maruti Suzuki India is likely to see its capex nearly double in FY23. Reports say the company will be spending more than Rs 7,000 crore during FY23, which is significantly more than the Rs 5,000-crore capex guidance given by it in April. 

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    The Baseline
    07 Dec 2022
    Portfolio X-Ray: An analysis of Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund

    Portfolio X-Ray: An analysis of Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    In many ways, Sunil Singhania, the founder of Abakkus Asset Manager LLP, is an old-school investor.  You are not going to find a loss-making startup with crazy valuations in his portfolio. He is not a PayTM or Zomato kind of guy. 

    Rather, Singhania, over his 28-year long career tracking equity markets, built a reputation for finding diamonds in the rough - smaller companies with strong financials, who were just starting to see strong growth momentum. Here we take a closer look at his portfolio, to see if that reputation of picking winners still holds up in his recent bets. 

    Singhania founded Abakkus in 2018, and it has grown to $1.4 billion since inception. Before Abakkus, he worked at Reliance Capital as Chief Investment Officer and global head for equities, managing over $10 billion in investments. During his 22 years at Reliance Capital he significantly increased the size of the Reliance Growth Fund. 

    Been fortunate to have managed Reliance Growth Fund in its journey of being 100x for most of that journey! https://t.co/hWJfr7Epq3

    — Sunil Singhania (@SunilBSinghania) August 9, 2019

    Singhania was also the chairman of the investment committee at CFA Institute, overseeing over $400 million worth of investments in an honorary capacity. 

    As the head of the Abakkus Fund, Singhania has invested primarily in small and micro-caps, and a few mid-cap companies. The Fund’s net worth during Q2FY23 was Rs 2,079.2 crore, and it publicly owns a stake in 24 companies.

    Singhania’s track record of choosing good companies still looks quite strong. Hindware Home Innovation, HIL, Siyaram Silk Mills and Mastek are among the oldest stocks in the portfolio. The best long-term performing companies in the Abakkus portfolio are Mastek and AGI Greenpac, which have increased by 304.7% and 285% respectively since Q4FY19. The small-cap investor cut a 1.5% stake in Mastek in Q2FY23 and now holds 2.8%. However, its price fell 47.6% during H1FY22. He also reduced stakes in AGI Greenpac to 1.9% in Q2FY23 from 3% in Q3FY21.  

    Other high-performing long-term companies in the portfolio are Jindal Stainless (Hisar) (bought in Q4FY19), Hindware Home Innovation and IIFL Securities (bought in Q3FY20), and HIL and ADF Foods (bought in Q1FY21). Singhania purchased a stake in Polyplex Corp in Q4FY19 but cut it to below 1% in Q2FY23. During this period, the packaging company’s price grew by 232.7%

    Singhania maintains a well-diversified portfolio

    While Abakkus is a well-diversified portfolio, Singhania maintains 19.7% of the portfolio in the metals and minings sector, aggregating to Rs 363.7 crore, and 19.3% in the software and services sector (Rs 357.2 crore). While cement and construction amounts to 11.4%, consumer durables has 10.9%, and textiles, apparel and accessories, 7.9%. The least invested in sectors are diversified consumer services, FMCG, retailing, and food, beverages and tobacco, with less than 2% each.

    During Q2FY23, the marquee investor increased his stake in eight companies and reduced it in nine. He added a 1.2% stake of pharma company Jubilant Pharmova to his portfolio. He also bought an additional 0.4% in Stylam Industries, 0.1% each in Sarda Energy & Minerals, Hindware Home Innovation and HIL. He cut a 1.5% stake in Mastek, a 1% stake in The Anup Engineering and a 0.2% stake in Route Mobile. Singhania also cut stakes in Polyplex Corp, Saregama India, Surya Roshni, Paras Defence and Space Technologies and CMS Info Systems to below 1%.

    23 out of 24 stocks report consolidated profits in Q2FY23

    Sunil Singhania’s LinkedIn profile mentions his strength as “a balance sheet-focused investor with a keen eye on numbers”. All companies in the portfolio have reported consolidated profits in Q2FY23, except HIL, which reported a loss of Rs 6.8 crore (against a profit of Rs 26.1 crore in Q2FY22), despite just a marginal fall in revenue of 0.3%.  

    During Q2FY23, Ethos reported a 410.5% YoY rise in profit to Rs 13.6 crore, while its revenue grew 32.3% YoY. Route Mobile and J Kumar Infraprojects reported a net profit of Rs 73.6 crore and Rs 67.54 crore, indicating an increase of 74.5% YoY and 64.5% YoY, respectively. Their revenue also grew 94.2% and 31.2% respectively. Even though 23 out of 24 companies reported profits for the quarter, 11 companies saw a YoY fall in their net profit. Jubilant Pharmova, DCM Shriram Industries and Rupa & Company reported a fall in net profit by 96.2%, 92.6% and 68.2% respectively.

    Sarda Energy & Minerals, J Kumar Infraprojects, AGI Greenpac and Stylam Industries outperformed their respective industries over a year, while eight companies outperformed their respective industries over a quarter, 11 outperformed over a month. 

    From the portfolio, HIL announced the highest basic annual EPS of Rs  280.5, followed by Sarda Energy & Minerals (Rs 223.1), Ion Exchange (India) (Rs 137.3), Technocraft Industries (Rs 109.3) and Mastek (Rs 106.5).

    Currently, out of 24 stocks in the holding, eight are trading in the PE Buy Zone, aggregating to 33% of stocks, and five stocks are trading in the PE Sell Zone, aggregating to 21%. Stocks in the Buy Zone include Route Mobile, Ethos, AGI Greenpac and J Kumar Infraprojects, whereas Rajshree Polypack, Ion Exchange (India), Jubilant Pharmova, ADF Foods and DCM Shriram Industries are in the Sell Zone. Additionally, all stocks’ PE is below their respective sectors. 

    How volatile is Singhania’s portfolio?

    For a year, beta for 14 stocks in his portfolio is greater than 1 and the other 10 have it lesser than 1. However, only eight stocks have a beta greater than one for a quarter. The average beta of the portfolio for a year is 1.1, whereas it is 1  for a quarter. 

    The volatility of Singhania’s portfolio is in line with the benchmark index, which shows that the marquee investor is not a risk taker nor is he especially risk-averse. He also holds stocks within both the PE Buy and Sell Zones. He tends to focus on value stocks, as all of his stocks have PE ratios lesser than that of their sectors. To conclude, even though Sunil Singhania has a neutral-risk portfolio, he looks for positive fundamentals and decent valuations while placing his bets.

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    The Baseline
    05 Dec 2022, 03:52PM
    Five analyst picks with high upsides in target price

    Five analyst picks with high upsides in target price

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    This week we take a look at analyst picks with high upsides (over 15%).

    1. Mahindra & Mahindra: BOB Capital Markets assumes coverage of this auto manufacturer with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,496. This implies an upside of 18.7%. In Q2FY23, the company’s net profit surged 43.8% YoY to Rs 2,772.7 crore and revenue rose 39.1% YoY.

    Analyst Milind Raginwar is optimistic about the firm’s prospects on the back of an improving business environment. He said, “Margin headwinds are likely to recede with better raw material availability, moderating costs, price hikes and optimal utilisation.” The analyst also sees the company’s strong order book amid moderating raw material costs as a key positive. 

    Raginwar points out that the demand for Mahindra’s new sports utility vehicles is higher than the planned supply capacity. He believes this will lead to an expansion in production capacity in the coming quarters. The analyst expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 24% over FY22-25. 

    1. Ashok Leyland: ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this commercial vehicle (CV) manufacturer with a target price of Rs 180. This indicates an upside of 22.2%. In Q2FY23, the company turned profitable on a YoY basis with a net profit of Rs 163.9 crore and its revenue rose 72.6% YoY. 

    Analysts Basudeb Banerjee and Pratit Vajani believe the robust retail demand for trucks is driven by infrastructure, mining and e-commerce segments. They added that the demand for new trucks was also due to the need to replace old fleets with more efficient ones. The company’s management is confident about the CV upcycle lasting till FY25.

    Banerjee and Vajani are positive about the company’s dominant position in the CV market. They said, “Ashok Leyland has recovered its M&HCV (medium & heavy commercial vehicle)market share from sub-25% a year ago to around 32% now and is confident of retaining it.” The analysts estimate the firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 39.4% over FY22-24. 

    1. ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (ICICIPRU): Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this life insurance provider with a target price of Rs 600, indicating an upside of 26.2%. Analysts Nitin Aggarwal and Yash Agarwal arranged an interactive session with the top management of ICICIPRU to discuss various regulations being introduced by the regulator, the industry, and its growth and margin outlook. Based on the discussion, the analysts understand that the insurance provider is focusing on revenue growth rather than targeting product mix.

    The analysts said, “The management indicated that growth in absolute value in new business (VNB)  is the most important metric.” They believe that a pick up in annual premium equivalent (APE) and an improving product mix will keep the margin steady and drive VNB growth.

    The analysts added that an increase in agent recruitment, new partnerships and a strategy to approach customers with a wider product range through all channels will boost premium growth. They expect ICICIPRU to deliver 23% CAGR in VNB over FY22-24, led by premium growth and improvement in margin.

    1. Maruti Suzuki India: Sharekhan reiterates a ‘Buy’ call on this auto manufacturer with a target price of Rs 10,965. This indicates an upside of 24.7%. Analysts from the brokerage said, “We stay positive on Maruti Suzuki India as volumes are expected to regain pace on the back of new launches and improving demand in both rural and urban markets.” They added that easing in electronic components shortage, softening commodity prices and positive operating leverage are likely to keep earnings growth momentum intact.

    Maruti’s management expects to regain market share on the back of new launches and a stronger distribution network. The analysts believe that the automobile manufacturer is well positioned to accomplish its electric vehicle plans as well. They expect exports to be a long-term key growth driver for the company.

    They remain optimistic on the back of a better product mix, structural growth outlook, healthy balance sheet, and comfortable valuations. 

    1. CESC: Emkay maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this electric utility company but reduces the target price to Rs 101, indicating an upside of 33.1%. The company reported a standalone profit after tax of Rs 243 crore (up 3.4% YoY), in line with the brokerage's estimates. The consolidated profit after tax fell 5.9% to Rs 320 crore, which analysts Abhineet Ananda and Chinmay Kabra believe fell due to lower profit at Haldia Energy. 

    The analysts said, “Performance of distribution segments of Rajasthan and Malegaon was not encouraging. Rajasthan distribution franchises, despite having completed four to five years, have not been able to see break-even.” 

    Yet Ananda and Kabra remain positive about the company as the performance of Dhariwal Infrastructure and Noida circle has improved. Haldia profits are normalising as well. According to them, the key triggers include an increase in standalone tariffs and the performance of distribution franchises 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    02 Dec 2022
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Larsen & Toubro: This construction and engineering company reached an all-time high of Rs 2,110 today as it closed a $107 million three-year loan from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. The company’s subsidiary, L&T Energy Hydrocarbon, secured two offshore contracts worth Rs 1,000-2,500 crore in total on Monday. The contract is India’s first order to decommission offshore facilities from British Gas Exploration and Production India. 

    The company’s infrastructure business, L&T Construction, also won an order worth Rs 1,000-2,500 crore from Greenko Group on November 24. It is for the construction of an off-stream pumped storage project in Madhya Pradesh. Larsen & Toubro also acquired the entire stake held by Chiyoda Corp in L&T-Chiyoda, a joint venture between the two companies, on November 22. 

    According to Sharekhan, the company’s H1FY23 performance was strong despite cost pressures in its core business, and supply chain challenges. L&T also has a rich order intake in the domestic and international markets. The brokerage maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the company with a target price of Rs 2,390. This indicates a potential upside of 15.8%. The company features in a screener of stocks with high Trendlyne momentum score. 

    1. Apollo Tyres:This tyre stock rose more than 4% in trade after it announced Q2FY23 results. While its net profit rose 11.9% YoY to Rs 194.5 crore, its standalone net profit fell 9.9% YoY to Rs 80.8 crore. This was caused by a 9.9% YoY increase in raw material costs, which also pulled its EBITDA margin down by 61 bps YoY to 12%. The company’s management, however, expects raw material costs to ease from Q3FY23.

    Apollo Tyres’ revenue rose by 16.8% YoY in Q2 driven by price hikes, which were in the range of 5-12%. Decent performance in the European markets helped drive revenue growth for Apollo Tyres, despite these markets facing high energy prices. The management expects replacement demand in domestic markets to improve, especially in the OEM (original equipment manufacturers) segment. The stock also shows up in a screener with increasing revenue for the past two quarters.

    Reports suggest that easing crude oil prices and correction in rubber prices bode well for tyre stocks. Rubber and crude oil consist of nearly 60% of the raw material cost as a percentage of sales and a fall in prices would significantly bring down raw material costs. Apollo Tyres rose 6% in trade on Monday and touched an all-time high on Thursday in hopes of low costs and improving margins in H2FY23. The stock rose nearly 9% in the past month and 11% in the past week.

    Trendlyne’s consensus recommendation has 20 analysts suggesting a ‘Buy’ on the stock. Reliance Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ as it expects the company’s volumes to grow in FY23-24 on the back of increasing demand from OEMs and EBITDA margins to be around 13.1% in FY23E. However, the stock is in the PE Sell Zone as it is trading below its current PE valuation. 

    1. Zomato: This internet software company saw a series of senior-level exits in the past month. Zomato fell over 4% after its co-founder Mohit Gupta resigned from his post on November 18. Although the company rose 6.5% in the past month, it has fallen by 57.8% from its 52-week high of Rs 157.9. Recent reports on the company's plans to lay off 3% of its workforce in order to scale down costs and turn profitable have likely weakened the investor sentiment. 

    In the recently ended quarter, Zomato’s net loss narrowed to Rs 250.8 crore, as against Rs 429.6 crore in Q2FY22. Brokerage firm Ambit is optimistic about the company’s growth and has a ‘Buy’ rating on the company with a target price of Rs 94. It says that Zomato's market share in the food delivery space rose to 55% in H1CY22. The brokerage expects the entire enterprise (including Blinkit) to turn profitable in approximately four years, by FY27.

    Motilal Oswal also recommends a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. The brokerage says that the acquisition of Blinkit has been positive for the company and it has not lost market share in the last quarter.

    Meanwhile, Alipay Singapore Holding sold a 3.15% stake (26.2 crore shares) in Zomato for Rs 1,631.4 crore in a bulk deal on Wednesday. In another deal, Camas Investments picked up a 1.18% stake (9.8 crore shares) worth Rs 607.6 crore in the company. 

    1. Rail Vikas Nigam: This rail infrastructure construction company gained 84.6% in the past month. With improving investor sentiment, the stock’s momentum score has steadily risen since mid-October. The uptrend comes on the backdrop of a strong business outlook for the company. Its robust Q2FY23 performance, order wins, and a rise in government capital expenditure on railway infrastructure has fuelled the street’s optimism surrounding the stock. 

    Rail Vikas Nigam’s net profit in Q2 rose 36.5% YoY to Rs 381.2 crore and beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 37.6%. The stock also has a Trendlyne consensus recommendation of ‘Strong Buy’ and shows up in a screener which lists companies with improving cash flow and high durability.

    The company has been trying to diversify its order book and bag non-railway infrastructure projects as well. Between September and November, the company won four infrastructure contracts, of which three were non-railway projects. It won an international contract from the Indian government for the construction of a harbour in the Maldives for Rs 1,544.6 crore. It also won contracts worth Rs 484.2 crore from the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation for the construction of canals. Overall, the company had an order book of Rs 55,000 crore at the end of Q2 and the management aims to increase it to Rs 1 lakh crore in a few years. To meet its target, it has been aggressively focusing on bidding for projects in the domestic and international markets.

    1. Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail: This fashion retailer announced that its arm TMRW acquired eight digital-first lifestyle and apparel brands on Monday for Rs 289 crore. The management expects these acquisitions to increase the firm’s digital presence across apparel segments like casual wear, kids wear and western wear. The company has been scaling up its digital capabilities to increase sales through e-commerce. Robust growth in e-commerce sales was a key growth driver in Q2FY23. Digital sales grew 24% YoY. 

    The company’s revenue rose 49.7% YoY to Rs 3,074.6 crore and net profit jumped nearly 7X YoY. This growth was led by aggressive network expansion offline and online. The company added 85 branded stores in Q2 and plans to continue ramping up its store count across business segments in H2FY23. Aditya Birla Fashion acquired Reebok’s India operations to diversify its product portfolio with an entry into the footwear segment. It also acquired a majority stake in Masaba to expand into the beauty segment. 

    The management aims to acquire 30 brands across the fashion sub-categories within three years, which will be funded through internal accruals initially. This is in line with the company’s strategy to lower debt and strengthen its balance sheet. It reduced debt to Rs 243 crore in Q2FY23 from Rs 2,500 crore at the end of FY20. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with low debt.

    Looking ahead, the management expects consumer demand to rise in H2FY23 on the back of the festive/wedding season and normalisation of economic activities. However, ICICI Direct sees the risk of rising margin pressure as investments into new brands may lead to higher-than-expected working capital requirements.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    01 Dec 2022
    Chart of the week: India’s interest rate hikes in 2022 lower than most central banks

    Chart of the week: India’s interest rate hikes in 2022 lower than most central banks

    By Abdullah Shah

    Supply shocks, rising demand and high energy prices caused the world to see a sharp rise in inflation in 2022. The Russia-Ukraine conflict only aggravated supply chain disruptions and drove costs higher. Sanctions imposed on Russia by the western nations also made oil, metal and coal pricier. 

    Inflation was further worsened by falling currency values, which made imports more expensive. To counter inflation, major central banks began raising interest rates in March, and rates are expected to rise at least until mid-2023. 

    The Reserve Bank of India increased interest rates by 190 bps in 2022 on the back of the US Fed raising rates, and the rupee falling against the US dollar. However with inflation muted domestically, the RBI has stayed cautious, raising rates at a lower pace compared to other Central Banks. 

    South American Central Banks in Brazil, Chile and Mexico have hiked interest rates sharply.The Central Bank of Chile raised interest rates by 675 bps in 2022, the highest among all central banks, followed by the Central Bank of Brazil’s hike of 450 bps. Mexico’s Banxico has also raised the interest rate by 375 bps. The South American region is battling steep inflation due to bottlenecks in production, high commodity prices and high demand.

    The Federal Reserve of the United States has raised interest rates by 375 bps so far in 2022, while the Bank of Canada increased it by 350 bps. The United Kingdom’s Bank of England has also bumped up the rates by 275 bps on the back of higher energy prices and high demand. 

    China is the only economy which has dropped rates by 15 bps. The People’s Bank of China made this move to tackle an economy that is weakening due to the zero-Covid policy and falling property prices

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    The Baseline
    30 Nov 2022
    Stock Screener: Indices that are five year outperformers, under pressure in short-term gains

    Stock Screener: Indices that are five year outperformers, under pressure in short-term gains

    By Abdullah Shah

    The Sensex and Nifty 50 closed at record highs this week. But it's increasingly clear that this year, the preferred stocks and sectors have changed. This screener shows the Momentum score of various NSE and BSE indices, and tracks the share price changes over one year, three years and five years. Some of the biggest gainers of the past five years have been muted in recent months. 

    Major indices that show up in this screener include Nifty IT, Nifty Tata Group, S&P BSE Energy, Nifty Services Sector, S&P BSE Industrials, Nifty Financial Services, BSE Cap Goods and Nifty PSU Bank.

    The Nifty IT index (which includes Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, HCL Technologies) rose 171% over the past five years, the highest among major indices, even though it fell 12% over the past year. The index has a Trendlyne momentum score of 54.6, suggesting mid-range bullishness. Edelweiss believes that demand outlook in the IT sector has still not fully incorporated global macro-concerns. So the index may fall further. 

    The S&P BSE Energy index (which includes heavyweights like Reliance Industries, Adani Total Gas and Oil and Natural Gas Corp) rose 111% over the past five years, while it was 17% over the past year. The index has a mid-range Trendlyne momentum score of 55. As Brent crude prices touched $123.2 per barrel in March, the index fell 2.4% since the start of the year. In recent weeks, Brent crude prices dipped to $87.4 per barrel, helping the index rise 3.7% in the past week in hopes of demand recovery and lower pressure on margins for Indian companies in this space. 

    The Nifty Tata index (which includes Tata company stocks like Titan, Tata Motors and Tata Steel) rose 132% over the past five years and 1% over the past year. It has a Trendlyne momentum score of 52.8.

    The Nifty PSU Bank index (which includes State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda and Canara Bank) rose 2.8% over the past five years, while it is up 55.8% over the past year. The index has a Trendlyne Momentum Score of 69.6. According to ICICI Securities, financiers are optimistic on growth momentum as some corporate segments like retail and SME are showing sustained growth.

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    The Baseline
    29 Nov 2022
    Five analyst picks this week

    Five analyst picks this week

    By Suhas Reddy
    1. Delhivery: ICICI Securities upgrades its rating on this logistics company to ‘Buy’ from ‘Sell’ with a target price of 460, implying an upside of 43.3%. In Q2FY23, the firm posted a loss of Rs 254.1 crore and its revenue grew by 19.9% YoY. 

    Analysts Abhisek Banerjee, Amit Dixit and Heenal Gada have turned positive on the company as they believe “Delhivery’s current valuations provide a great opportunity to buy this high-quality stock”. By the end of November, Delhivery fell by around 50% from its peak in July due to concerns over the sustainability of its revenue growth and profitability, But analysts believe that the company’s low-cost structure, effective management, strong balance sheet and high brand recall alleviate these concerns. 

    They also expect the logistics firm’s EBITDA margins to improve steadily in the coming quarters. They see the firm gaining market share in niche segments like secured delivery. Analysts estimate Delhivery’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 25.6% over FY22-25. 

    1. Can Fin Homes:Keynote Capitals initiates coverage on this housing finance company with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 670, indicating an upside of 22.7%. In Q2FY23, Can Fin Homes’ net profit rose 14.6% YoY to Rs 141.7 crore, and its revenue grew by 40.6% YoY.

    Analyst Devin Joshi is positive about the company’s future growth prospects given its “strong growth history and best-in-class asset quality across various industry phases driven by excellent risk management techniques”. He anticipates the firm’s loan book to grow by 18-20% and maintain its robust asset quality in the coming quarters. 

    Joshi finds the company’s strict credit policy, which allows lending to only low-risk and safe customers like salaried or self-employed, a key positive. He believes this policy aids the firm in maintaining its excellent asset quality. He also sees the housing finance company’s AUM (assets under management) expanding as it plans to establish 12-15 new branches every year. The analyst expects Can Fin Homes’ net profit to grow at a CAGR of 17.6% over FY22-24. 

    1. State Bank of India: Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this PSU Bank with a target price of Rs 700, implying an upside of 15%. In Q2FY23, the bank’s standalone net profit surged 73.9% YoY to Rs 13,264.5 crore and revenue grew 14.9% YoY. 

    Analysts Nitin Aggarwal and Yash Agarwal attribute the company’s robust performance to “strong loan growth, margin expansion, and lower provisions”. The improvement in its treasury performance (which supported other income) and controlled operating expenses led to healthy growth in core pre-provision operating profit, they added. They expect loan disbursements to grow 14-16% in FY23, driven by the retail and corporate segments.

    In the near-to-medium term, analysts expect a high mix of floating loans to aid profitability and growth in net interest income. They are banking on the asset quality remaining robust while the restructured book is under control. They anticipate the bank’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 32% over FY22-24. 

    1. Cyient: ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this IT consulting and software company with a target price of Rs 920, indicating an upside of 13.9%. Analysts Sameer Pardikar and Sujay Chavan attended Cyient’s analyst meeting at their Hyderabad campus and noted that the company is targeting a quarterly revenue run rate of $250 million in FY24 from the current $175 million, which will be driven by organic and acquisition synergies. They expect Cyient’s acquisition to improve diversification and drive annual revenues to  $1 billion by FY24. 

    Pardikar and Chavan expect improved demand from large deals, healthy order book, rebound in DLM business and organisation restructuring to accelerate Cyient’s growth. They are optimistic about the IT consultant as it is also partnering with auto space start-ups and looking to strategically acquire them in the future.

    1. ACC: Axis Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ call on this cement producer with a target price of Rs 2,710. This indicates an upside of 7.2%. To cater to the high-growth market of central India, the company is expanding its cement grinding capacity to 39.2 metric tonnes per annum from the present 36.1 metric tonnes. The analysts at Axis Direct expect the cement manufacturer to deliver volume growth of 7% CAGR over CY22-24 and record revenue CAGR of 10%. 

    “The company exhibits a robust financial position with a debt-free balance sheet, high-interest coverage ratio and healthy cash flows Housing and Infra, which consumes around 80-90% of the total cement produced in the country, will further accelerate the demand as the Central government is keen on developing infrastructure under various government schemes and initiatives,” they added.

    On the back of expanded capacity, better pricing, increased demand and moderation in commodity prices, the analysts expect ACC to report revenue and APAT CAGR of 10% and 40% respectively over CY22-24. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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