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One could picture the stock market as a high-level chess match. Some players take bold risks, pushing their queen out early. Others play it safe, holding back their key pieces, and waiting for the perfect moment to strike.

Warren Buffett is playing defense. His cash reserves have hit a record $330 billion, signaling he’s waiting for a deeper correction. More than 80% of this capital sits in Treasury bills.

This doesn't mean his love for stocks has faded. Even as he nears ninety-five, he insists his appetite for risk is unabated. “Despite what some commentators view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities,” Buffett wrote to his shareholders in his 2024 annual letter. “That preference won’t change”.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq plunged into correction territory, down over 10% from its peak. The S&P 500 teeters on the edge of a similar drop, and the Dow is slipping as economic fears mount. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls the correction a “healthy reset.”

Fisher doubles down, while others sell

Warren Buffett calls tariffs “an act of war”. So Trump's approach to global trade can't be encouraging. Buffett's net worth is down by 36% over the past two years, mostly driven not by losses but by the stake cuts in his top bets. Berkshire Hathaway’sApple stake has shrunk to 2%, down from around 6% in September 2023.

In contrast, Ken Fisher steadily accumulated Apple, NVIDIA, and Microsoft. His portfolio of over 750 stocks, mostly dominated by market leaders, has fueled a 30% surge in his net worth over the past two years. Ray Dalio, on the other hand, cut stakes in Alphabet, Meta Platforms and NVIDIA - a move that, combined with market corrections, dragged his net worth down 4%. 

Buffett & Cathie lose over 35%; Fisher & Ackman make strong gains

Diversification is key, but over-diversification doesn't necessarily over-deliver. Ken Griffin holds over 4,000 stocks, but his portfolio has gained just 10% over the past two years. Meanwhile, Jim Simons, with over 3,000 stocks, has seen his portfolio drop 20% since June 2023. 

Top investors’ net worth fall from their peak in 2024

Cathie Wood, a Tesla bull, has seen her portfolio take a beating (No surprise then, that she's talking up the stock). Tesla, Roku and Palantir Technologies, her top holdings, are down at least 30% from December highs.

Warren Buffett’s portfolio plunged over 25% from its peak in June 2024 after he cut stakes in his top long-term holdings. From over 13% in June last year, Berkshire’s stake in Bank of America is down to just under 9% as of December-end.

Who are the big winners and losers across superstar portfolios?

AppLovin Corp drives gains for both Griffin and Dalio

In Buffett's portfolio, broadcasting company Sirius XM Holdings has been the top performer over the past year, surging 505%. In Fisher's case, internet retail Alibaba Group leads with an 87% gain. Packaged software firm AppLovin in Ken Griffin’s holdings soared 341%, while broking firm Robinhood Markets and Spotify, which are in Cathie Wood’s and Jim Simons’ portfolios gained 142% and 126%.

Intel and AMD drag Griffin, Fisher & Dalio’s portfolios

If we look at the top losers, Occidental Petroleum, an oil production company in Warren Buffett’s portfolio slid 25%, while semiconductor firm AMD in Ken Fisher’s holdings fell 41% over the past year. Intel in Ken Griffin’s portfolio plunged 43%, while biotechnology company CRISPR Therapeutics and AMD in Cathie Wood’s and Jim Simons’ holdings dropped 42% and 41%, respectively. Nike in Bill Ackman’s portfolio also slid 27%.

Buffett bets $1 billion on booze

Q4 was relatively quiet in terms of new bets taken by superstar investors. Warren Buffett took a position in Constellation Brands, an alcoholic beverage maker, with a current holding value of $1 billion. He also nearly doubled his holding in Dominos Pizza, another consumption-driven stock, to $1 billion.

Superstar investors take new stakes in mass consumption stocks

Meanwhile, top investors like Steve Mandel, Frank Sands, and Ole Andreas Halvorsen each grabbed over 1% of Flutter Entertainment, a major player in sports betting and gambling.

Tariff-led actions are squeezing some sectors

Rising tariffs are squeezing banks and businesses alike. Higher interest rates are slowing capital demand, making it tougher for banks to grow. Over the past quarters, Warren Buffet has been offloading his stake in Bank of America and Citigroup.

Meanwhile, Bill Ackman trimmed his stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill, which sources most of its avocados and tomatoes from Mexico. With tariffs driving up costs, serving the same menu at the same price is getting harder. Analysts expect this to hit Chipotle’s gross margins this quarter and beyond.

AUM of money market funds top $7 trillion

If investors are pulling out of the stock market, you might wonder where all the money is going. Rising asset under management (AUM) of money market funds, which invest in bonds maturing in less than a year, can be one place investors are parking their money.

Constant inflow into money market funds pushes AUM to over $7 trillion

US money-market funds now have more than $7 trillion in AUM, a milestone for an industry that’s skyrocketed in popularity among investors over the past two years. The top three managers — Fidelity, JP Morgan and Vanguard — control over 40% of the total AUM. 

Gold has also surged to record highs of over $3,000 per ounce as investors flock to safe havens. According to Macquarie Group analysts, its burgeoning allure as a safe haven could push it up another $500 during the third quarter.

The Indian stock market recorded its best weekly gain in over four years, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex rising over 4% last week. The surge was driven by strong domestic investor buying and reduced selling by foreign institutions. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers for the first time in 13 weeks, purchasing equities worth Rs 5,819.1 crore over the week, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought Rs 4,337.9 crore worth of stocks.

FIIs were selling Indian equities earlier this month, but the pace slowed. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investment Services, said, “It can be argued that positive domestic fundamentals like pick up in growth, easing inflation, and a weaker dollar have contributed to the change in FII strategy.”

The mainboard IPO segment has seen no new launches for over a month, but the SME segment remains active. This week, six new SME IPOs are set to open, while three companies will make their market debut, following four listings last week.

Three SME IPOs are set for listing this week

Grand Continent Hotels, a hotels chain, will close its IPO on March 24 and list on the NSE SME platform on March 27. By day 2 of bidding, the IPO remained undersubscribed at 0.5X. In FY24, the company’s revenue grew 86% YoY, while net profit rose 3.9X.

Grand Continent and Active Infra draw HNI bids; Rapid Fleet lags behind

Active Infrastructures and Rapid Fleet Management will close their IPO bidding on March 25 and list on March 28. By the end of day 1, both remained undersubscribed at 0.2x and 0.1x, respectively.

Six SME IPOs to open for subscription this week

Desco Infratech is the first IPO to open this week, with the subscription period from March 24 to 26. The issue size is Rs 30.8 crore, with a price band of Rs 147-150 per share. The IPO is expected to list on the BSE SME platform on April 1.

Desco Infratech and Indentixweb’s net profit more than double in FY24

Other IPOs opening for subscription this week:

• ATC Energies System (March 25-27) has an issue size of Rs 63.8 crore, with a price band of Rs 112-118 per share.
• Shri Ahimsa Naturals (March 25-27) plans to raise Rs 72.8 crore, with a price band of Rs 113-119 per share.
• Indentixweb (March 26-28) aims to raise Rs 16.6 crore via a fresh issue, with a price band of Rs 51-54 per share.
• Retaggio Industries (March 27-April 1) has an issue size of Rs 15.5 crore, with a fixed price of Rs 25 per share.
• Infonative Solutions (March 28-April 3) is set to raise Rs 24.7 crore, with a price band of Rs 75-79 per share.

Four new companies listed last week; all declined post-listing

PDP Shipping & Projects listed on March 18 at a 19.8% discount to its issue price of Rs 135 and is now trading 31.2% lower.

PDP Shipping and Paradeep Parivahan see weak debuts; others list flat

Paradeep Parivahan debuted on March 24 at a 20% discount. Its IPO was subscribed 1.6 times the total shares on offer. The stock fell further, trading at a 22.4% discount.

Super Iron Foundry and Divine Hira Jewellers listed at their issue prices but have since declined. Super Iron Foundry is now down 14.2%, while Divine Hira Jewellers is trading 5% lower.

What buzzed in the primary market last week?

• Edtech company PhysicsWallah has confidentially filed draft papers to raise Rs 4,600 crore through an IPO. The offering includes a fresh issue of shares along with an offer-for-sale (OFS) by existing investors. The company is reportedly targeting a valuation of $2.8 billion.
• SEBI has approved the IPOs of LG Electronics India and Innovision. LG Electronics' IPO is completely an offer-for-sale of 10.2 crore equity shares with no fresh issue. Innovision, which provides manpower services and toll plaza management, plans to raise Rs 255 crore through a fresh issue, along with an offer-for-sale of 17.7 lakh shares.
• US e-commerce giant Amazon is reportedly considering spinning off its Indian unit and listing it in India. The company is in the early stages of discussions and has engaged with JP Morgan while initiating talks with investment banks in India.
• Saatvik Green Energy, a solar photovoltaic module manufacturer, has refiled its draft papers for a Rs 1,150 crore IPO after SEBI returned its earlier documents in February. The offering consists of a fresh issue of shares worth Rs 850 crore and an offer-for-sale of Rs 300 crore by promoters.
• SEBI has put the IPO approvals for Hero FinCorp on hold for nearly eight months and HDB Financial Services, an HDFC Bank subsidiary, for four months. The delay is due to concerns that their share sales might not comply with pre-IPO share sale rules.

1. BSE:

This exchange stock rose 22% over the past week after UBS initiated coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 5,350. The brokerage anticipates a share price upside of around 12%, believing the market has not fully priced in the shift in trading volumes from NSE.

BSE fueled this rise in trading volume by shifting Sensex’s expiry day from Friday to Tuesday. This change increased its market share from just above 16% in December last year to over 22% in February.

BSE nearly doubled its Q3 revenue and net profit compared to the same period last year. Transaction charges, which form the bulk of its revenue, jumped 157% YoY. Operating expenses rose 86% YoY. This was mainly because of higher contributions to the core settlement guarantee fund – the exchange increased its contribution to the guarantee fund after SEBI introduced a new methodology for computing the minimum corpus requirement.

Discussing growth in the equity segment, MD & CEO Sundararaman R said, “We are working with market participants (discount brokers) to ensure a level playing field so clients can choose the exchange based on the best price for execution.” He emphasised that once fully implemented, this change will give BSE a 50-50 chance of handling retail orders.

Forecaster projects the firm’s revenue to grow by around 50%, driven by market share gains. Net profit is expected to rise four times in Q4 compared to the same period last year. UBS analysts see the company’s mutual fund distribution business as a key growth driver and project a 37% CAGR in revenue over FY25-27.

2. KEC International:

This heavy electrical equipment manufacturer made headlines today after CBI arrested its Deputy General Manager Suman Singh and Power Grid General Manager Uday Kumar for corruption. Kumar was caught taking a Rs 2.5 lakh bribe, while Singh allegedly favoured certain contractors. The FIR names five individuals, including KEC Vice President Jabraj Singh and the company itself.

Despite this, the company has surged by 24.9% over the past week after it received new orders worth Rs 1,267 crore across its businesses on March 15. 

KEC International’s transmission and distribution (T&D) business won 800 kV HVDC and 765 kV transmission line orders from Power Grid Corp, and supply of towers, hardware, and poles in the Americas. Its cables business won an order to supply various types of cables and conductors in India and overseas.

During Q3FY25, KEC International reported a 33.8% YoY increase in net profit at Rs 129.6 crore. Revenue grew 6.8%, reaching Rs 5,349.4 crore. EBITDA margin expanded by 85bps to 7%. 

The company’s order intake jumped 115.2% to Rs 8,600 crore in Q3, driven by strong growth in the T&D, civil, and renewables segments. YTD inflows now stand at Rs 25,000 crore, boosting revenue visibility. Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects KEC’s revenue to grow by 12.3% YoY in Q4FY25. 

Vimal Kejriwal, the MD & CEO, said, “With a solid and diversified order book and L1 (orders where the company is the lowest bidder) of over Rs 41,000 crore, better execution visibility, a stable cost environment, and a robust tender pipeline, we are well positioned for sustained growth in the coming quarters”.

With a strong order pipeline in place, the focus now falls on the execution of projects. KEC International also expects strong T&D opportunities in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi to drive international orders while maintaining a wait-and-watch stance on US orders.

Axis Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on KEC International and sets a target price of Rs 1,040. The brokerage believes the company’s strong order book offers healthy revenue visibility for the next 18-24 months. The government’s focus on T&D and the Jal Jeevan Mission extension till 2028 further support its growth prospects.

3. Steel Authority of India:

This PSU steel manufacturer has gained 8.9% in the past week following two major announcements. Steel Authority of India (SAIL) plans to invest Rs 30,000 crore to double the capacity of its Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP) to 9 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). After the expansion, RSP will produce about 25% of SAIL’s total target of 35 MTPA by 2030.

Meanwhile, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has recommended a 12% safeguard duty on certain steel imports for 200 days, to support domestic producers. This decision follows the US imposing a 25% tariff on steel imports. With US export options becoming limited, major steel-producing countries like China, Japan, and South Korea may look to dump their excess steel into India. This could lead to a surge in imports and put pressure on domestic steel manufacturers. To counter this, the safeguard duty has been proposed.

SAIL’s earnings are highly sensitive to hot rolled coil (HRC) and coking coal prices. The company’s management expects coking coal costs to decline by Rs 1,000/t in Q4FY25 (current Rs 15,0000/t) due to lower imported coal prices. At the same time, HRC prices rose by over Rs 1,100/t (currently Rs 50,000/t) in early March. Higher HRC prices and lower coking coal prices boost profitability.

Meanwhile, the company aims to reduce debt and maintain a stable debt-to-equity (DE) ratio during its expansion. Executive Director of Finance Praveen Nigam said, “Borrowings will be reduced to around Rs 30,500 crore by FY25-end from the current Rs 32,600 crore, aligning with FY24 levels. We expect the DE ratio to remain at 1:1, peaking at 1.2:1 during the expansion phase.”

Axis Securities has upgraded its rating to ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 130. The brokerage noted that capital expenditure for the next phase of expansion will begin in H2FY26 and could peak in FY28-29. They expect steel price spreads (price-cost gap) to drive profitability.

4. Dr. Agarwals Health Care:

Thiseye hospital chain surged 3.9% on March 20 after Motilal Oswalinitiated a ‘Buy’ call with a target price of Rs 510, citing the significant market share shift from unorganized to organized players in the eye care industry.

Dr. Agarwals Health Care (DAHL) has anestimated 25% market share among organized players in FY24. The company provides eye care services, including cataract and refractive surgeries, diagnostics, consultations, and non-surgical treatments. The company also sells optical products such as glasses, contact lenses, and eye care-related pharmaceutical products.

InQ3FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 28.7% YoY to Rs 443.4 crore and its net profit increased 12.7% YoY to Rs 22.3 crore. The growth was driven by an increase in surgical volumes, a shift towards high-end procedures, particularly in cataract surgeries, and a 19.3% YoY increase in patient footfall over 9MFY25. The company added 12 facilities in Q3, with a focus on expanding its reach in underpenetrated regions.

DAHL isactively expanding into underpenetrated regions like North India (Punjab, Jammu) and West India (Maharashtra, Gujarat) while also planning to enter non-core states such as Delhi-NCR, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, and Madhya Pradesh. Adil Agarwal, Director and CEO of the company,said, “In the fourth quarter, we have already launched three new facilities. Looking ahead, in Q4, we are targeting to launch another 8 to 10 additional surgical facilities and seven primary facilities.” 

The brokerageexpects a CAGR of 21% in revenue and 23% in EBITDA over FY25-27, reaching Rs 2,490 crore and Rs 690 crore, respectively, driven by growth in surgical volumes and pharmacy revenue.

5. Welspun Corp:

This iron & steel pipes manufacturing company touched a new 52-week high of Rs 856 on 20th March. On March 17th, the company won new orders worth around Rs 2,400 crore for supply of coated pipes for gas pipeline projects in the USA. With these new orders, the company's consolidated order book stands at approx. Rs 20,000 crore, to be executed in FY26-27. On February 24, the company incorporated its new wholly owned subsidiary, Welspun Europe in Spain. The subsidiary will be focusing on all types of conduits and systems for the transport of fluids.

The company announced its Q3FY25 results on February 5. In the quarter, its net profit surged 131.7% YoY to Rs 674.7 crore, fueled by a reduction in raw material costs. However, its revenue decreased by 23.2% due to decline in plastic products segment revenue. The company’s revenue beat forecaster estimates by 12% due to growth in its steel products segment. It appears on the screener for stocks with strong momentum.

Vipul Mathur, Managing Director of Welspun Corp, said, “I would like to emphasize that for the first nine months, our consolidated EBITDA reached Rs 1,356 crore, compared to our full-year FY25 guidance of Rs 1,700 crore. This clearly shows that we are on track to exceed our guidance for the second consecutive year, despite global challenges and concerns. We have a strong order book exceeding Rs 15,000 crore as of Q3, and in line pipes, our combined order book for India and the USA stands at nearly 8,66,000 tons, valued at over Rs 12,000 crore. ”

The company has invested Rs 1,700 crore in Saudi Arabia for an LSAW (Longitudinal Submerged Arc Welding) plant that manufactures large-diameter pipes. Vipul Mathur said, “The main incentive in Saudi Arabia is its market. We're observing strong return ratios, and we're expecting a payback period of no more than three to four years for this investment.”

JM Financial recommended a ‘Buy’ rating on Welspun Corp with a target price of Rs 940, citing robust demand outlook from the US market. The brokerage highlighted that the company’s net debt in Q3FY25 sharply reduced to Rs 100 crore as compared to Rs 530 crore in Q2FY25 on the back of better operational cashflows. It notes that all the company’s projects including Saudi Arabia and US remain on track. 

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

India's equity market has swung between gains and losses over the past year. While there have been moments of optimism, multiple global factors have pulled the market down, making it unpredictable.

In the first half of FY25, the Nifty 50 Index surged by 15.6%, but those gains were wiped out in the latter half due to global economic uncertainties, rising trade tensions, FII selling and weaker domestic spending. This downturn has affected several key indices. According to Reuters, Indian stocks have suffered their longest slump in nearly three decades, erasing almost $1 trillion in market value in the past five months. 

At an event, Radhika Gupta, CEO of Edelweiss Mutual Fund, said, “Nifty is like Shah Rukh Khan – he has had some bad patches but has delivered most of the time.”

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at the top four indices with the highest gains and losses over the past year.

Strong momentum driven by Government plans boosts SME growth

The BSE SME IPO Index has gained 58.2% over the past year. The top performers in the index include Mayank Cattle Food, Qualitek Labs, and Gabriel Pet Straps, with returns of 93.1%, 62.3%, and 46.9%, respectively.

The surge in SME IPOs is driven by a combination of government initiatives, such as the Mudra Scheme, tax benefits, and the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) program, which have created a favorable environment for small and medium enterprises. Additionally, rising investor interest and strong performance across various industries have further fueled growth in this segment.

The Nifty Midcap Liquid 15 Index includes the 15 most liquid mid-cap stocks listed on the NSE. Over the past year, the index has gained 15.3%, driven by strong performances from its key constituents. Dixon Technologies surged 90.9%, driven by its expansion in electronics manufacturing and collaborations with global brands. The growing shift towards diversifying manufacturing hubs beyond China further boosted its growth.

Indian Hotels Company gained 38.6%, supported by a strong recovery in domestic tourism and strategic expansion plans, including new hotel developments, contributing to higher earnings. 

Defensive indices grow in a bearish market

The BSE Healthcare Index includes companies involved in the pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, and healthcare equipment industries. Over the past year, the index has gained 18.3%. The top gainers in this sector include Blue Jet Healthcare, Wockhardt, and Suven Pharmaceuticals, with gains of 164.3%, 159.4%, and 84.3%, respectively.

The Centre’s PLI scheme drove growth in healthcare by boosting domestic manufacturing and reducing import dependence, particularly for critical active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). In addition, the sector has expanded its contract development & manufacturing organisations (CDMOs), as global pharmaceutical companies diversify supply chains beyond China. Over the past year, theNifty Financial Services index has gained 15.4%. The top performers in this index include Muthoot Finance, Cholamandalam Investment & Finance, and Bajaj Finance, with a gain of 72.9%,  38.6%, and 31.7%, respectively.

The index gained over the past year due to expectations of interest rate cuts, which boosted credit demand and improved liquidity. Rising domestic gold prices and increased collateral value supported strong demand for gold loans, further supporting earnings. 

Rising costs lead to a decline in the Nifty Energy and Nifty PSU Bank indices

The Nifty Energy Index has fallen 15.1% over the past year and contributes 10% to the Nifty 50, making it the third-largest contributor. The index includes companies from the oil & gas and utilities sectors. Firms like Adani Green Energy, Adani Total Gas, and Indian Oil Corporation saw the highest declines at 52.7%, 38.6%, and 22.5%, respectively, over the past year.

Oil & gas stocks fell due to higher purchase costs after the Centre reduced cheaper gas supplies. Energy price fluctuations, influenced by global demand, geopolitical tensions, and potential US policy changes, added to the pressure.

Oil and gas firms struggled with losses in the LPG segment as the government kept domestic LPG prices unchanged despite rising raw material costs. The narrowing discount on Russian crude also reduced the price gap between crude oil and refined products, directly impacting the Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) and earnings. The Nifty PSU Bank Index fell by 13.5% over the past year. Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank, and Indian Overseas Bank led the decline, dropping by 24.6%, 24.1%, and 29.9%, respectively, over the same period. Weak quarterly updates drove this decline, as many banks struggled with sluggish deposit growth, leading to concerns about slowing business momentum. 

Nifty200 Alpha 30 and Nifty Media plunged due to weak spending and a slower growth rate

The Nifty200 Alpha 30 consists of 30 stocks selected from the Nifty 200, based on ‘Jensen’s Alpha’. Jensen's alpha is used to evaluate the performance of an index or portfolio relative to a benchmark index. The weight of stocks in the index is determined by their alpha scores. The index has declined by 27.4% over the last year. Consumer services hold the highest weightage(16%) among sectoral weights, followed by capital durables (14.5%) and financial services (13.8%). Within the Nifty200 Alpha 30 index, IRFC, Zydus Lifesciences, and Bajaj Auto were among the worst performers, with a fall of 11.8%, 8.1%, and 9.4%, respectively.

The index’s underperformance was mainly due to the weak performance of its heavyweight sectors. Consumer Durables, which hold a significant weight in the index, struggled due to slower-than-expected economic growth in India. A weaker expansion in manufacturing and consumption, along with reduced government spending, pressured discretionary sectors. 

The Nifty Media index has declined by 20% over the past year. The beleaguered Zee Entertainment Enterprises (which saw the collapseof its $10 billion merger with Sony, and a $940 million legal dispute with Star India over the termination of a cricket broadcasting deal) holds the highest weight of 25.2% in the index and has fallen by 28.1%. PVR INOX has declined 28.3%, and Network18 Media has dropped 52.5% over the same period.

Media companies have faced margin pressure due to rising operating, production, and marketing costs.

A few months ago, Mililing was just another unremarkable village in China. After January 20 though, when DeepSeek released its R1 version, the place was suddenly on the map. Liang Wenfeng, the brain behind DeepSeek, turned out to be from this village. 

Overnight, Mililing, with a population of just 700, became a tourist hotspot, with 10,000 tourists visiting daily during the spring holidays. Roads were widened, houses were painted, and new trees were planted. No one would have imagined that a young techie could boost tourism like that. 

DeepSeek's impact has shown up in other ways. Investors have since flocked to buy Chinese tech companies through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. To buy these shares, investors need Hong Kong dollars. The demand for the dollars rose so much that by February 18, banks ran low on cash. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority had to inject HK$5.5 billion in overnight lending - the biggest intervention in five years. 

This rush into China seems to have come at India’s expense. FIIs have sold over Rs. 2 trillion in Indian stocks since October last year. The big question: is this just temporary or a sign of a bigger shift in global investor sentiment?

In this week's Analyticks,

• Choices, choices: FIIs take another look at their India and China investments
• Screener: Rising momentum stocks with high Forecaster target price upsides

Let's check in on this rivalry.

A twist in the story for Indian markets

India at the start of 2024, was all positive vibes. Corporates expected healthy profits, the IMF projected steady Indian GDP growth at 6.3% for both FY24 and FY25, and investors bet on policy continuity. Goldman Sachs even called India ‘the port of calm’ in a turbulent world.

China however, was struggling. GDP growth would fall from 5% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024. Until mid-September 2024, markets agreed. India was the clear winner: Nifty 50 Index was up by 20%, while China’s SSE 50 Index had fallen by 5%. 

But as the summer heat faded and we entered September, the mood changed. Worries about high valuations, and a consumption slowdown in India hit market sentiment. And China unveiled an economic stimulus package. Within ten days, China's SSE 50 Index was up by 29%.

In 2025, DeepSeek’s breakthrough pushed Chinese stocks higher, with foreign investors coming back in.

is the ‘Buy China, Sell India’ trend real?

Market experts have been talking about the ‘Buy China, Sell India’ trend this year — but it’s not new. In just the last 15 quarters, it’s played out four times. One example is June 2022, when FIIs pulled money from emerging markets but found value in beaten-down Chinese stocks, especially as Shanghai reopened after long lockdowns.

But the battle is not necessarily India vs. China. In 8 of the last 15 quarters, investors have either bought both or sold both. Perhaps it's a lack of imagination that drives investors to pit India and China against each other, as if it's always the dragon or the elephant, not both.

Global sentiment and country-specific triggers matter more than simple either/or choices. And Charlie Dutton from Manulife has a contrarian viewpoint. He believes domestic Chinese investors drove this most recent rally, not FIIs. Unfortunately, we cannot verify this as China does not update FII data regularly.

Valuations don’t matter…until they do

Why have FIIs been pulling out of Indian markets in recent weeks? The biggest reason is valuation. India’s stock market capitalisation was around 1.3 times its GDP in 2024 (now down to 1.2x), while it was close to 0.7x in China, making it a more attractive market for many investors. 

For value-focused funds, India is a tough fit right now. Take GMO’s value fund, for example. Arjun Divecha, Partner at GMO, said, “We're very underweight in India - close to zero - because of the valuation."

Rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar have also played their part. When safer assets like US bonds and dollars become more attractive, emerging markets like India take a hit.  

Is the government stimulus enough for China?

The China stimulus has caught attention, but the results are still unclear. The government cut policy rates by 50 basis points, encouraged property purchases, announced childcare subsidies, increased wages, and subsidised the replacement of old home appliances, automobiles, and electronics with newer, energy-efficient models, among other things.

The focus is enticing people to buy more. But the response has been lukewarm.

Retail sales growth slowed from 7.2% YoY in 2023 to 3.5% YoY in 2024. Demand is so weak that consumer inflation turned negative in February — a clear sign of deflation and fading consumer confidence. To keep things moving, the government has raised its fiscal deficit target to 4% for 2025, up from 3% in 2024. But it's not certain if these measures will revive demand and hit the 5% GDP target.

The wind is on India's back

While domestic measures are underway, China is also under pressure from shifting global trade patterns, especially ‘China+1’. It won’t happen overnight, but the signs are already visible. For instance, the share of Chinese products in US imports has fallen from 22% to 11% in six years, creating opportunities for countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and India, according to investment firm GMO. 

China, on the other hand, is setting up factories in other countries to bypass tariffs and remain the world's go-to supplier. At the same time, it doesn’t want to pass the baton to India.  Recent reports show that China is also blocking its companies from investing in India, limiting the flow of Chinese workers and equipment to India, and limiting exports of key materials — all to put roadblocks in India's manufacturing growth.

Here, China may be fighting the inevitable. When we look at the long term, India is much better positioned. A young population, a growing domestic market, political stability, and deepening global partnerships work in its favour. In contrast, China faces structural weakness — a shrinking, ageing population, heavy dependence on exports and state-owned enterprises, an opaque, non-democratic system, and growing geopolitical tensions that risk isolating it from the West.

Franklin Templeton’s Brian Freiwald highlights that India’s consistent GDP growth and market returns over the past two decades offer a better broad-based opportunity than China, which still needs careful stock picking. He also pointed out that with global portfolios still underweight on Indian equities, there’s room for significant capital inflows once valuations stabilise. Charlie Dutton from Manulife expects FII interest in India to return in the second half of 2025.

So the long-term story is intact. As Howard Marks said, ‘You don’t want to miss out on India in the next 10 years.”

Screener: Rising momentum stocks with high Forecaster 12-month target price upside

Top Forecaster picks with momentum: High growth potential stocks

With the Indian market seeing a gradual recovery over the past week, we look at stocks with the highest target price upside potential over the next year, which are seeing an uptick in momentum. This screener shows stocks with an MoM improvement in Trendlyne Momentum scores and high Forecaster estimates 12-month upside %.

The screener consists of stocks from the aluminium & aluminium products, commodity chemicals, healthcare facilities, housing finance, and iron & steel products industries. Major stocks that feature in the screener are Lloyds Metals & Energy, Aadhar Housing Finance, Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corp, Coforge, Minda Corp, Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences, Bharti Hexacom, and Hitachi Energy India.

Lloyds Metals & Energy shows up in the screener as Forecaster estimates a 40% target price upside over the next year. This coal & mining stock’s Trendlyne momentum score increased by 5.2 points MoM to 57.9. Analysts at ICICI Securities expect the company’s top line to improve on the back of the expansion of its steel plant, while the acquisition of Thriveni Earthmovers is expected to improve margins. They expect the firm’s revenue and EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 49% and 59% over FY25-27. 

Deepak Fertilisers’ Trendlyne momentum score jumped by 17.8 points MoM to 61.1.  Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects this commodity chemicals company’s stock price to grow by 28.3% over the next year. Analysts at Keynote Capital believe the firm’s expansion of the technical ammonium nitrate (TAN), weak nitric acid (WNA), and concentrated nitric acid (CNA) capacities, to be completed by H2FY26, will help in revenue growth. They expect its revenue to grow at a CAGR of 13% over FY25-26.

You can find some popular screeners here.

1. State Bank of India:

Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 980, indicating a potential upside of 33%. State Bank of India expects 14-15% YoY loan growth over the next few quarters. The bank sees growth in personal loans picking up, as the recent slowdown was mainly due to stricter credit approval standards. It has a strong corporate loan pipeline of Rs 4.8 lakh crore.

The analysts highlight that the bank's asset quality remains stable, with a net NPA of 0.5% and no major signs of loan stress. They expect credit costs to gradually normalize unless a major economic downturn occurs.

The bank expects net interest margins (NIMs) to remain around 2.9-3% over the next few quarters. The analysts note that the impact of rate cuts on net interest margins should be limited, as only about 28% of the loan book is linked to the repo rate, and the rate cut cycle is expected to be shallow.

2. Tata Consumer Products:

Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this tea & coffee company with a target price of Rs 1,067. This indicates a potential upside of 12.7%. In Q3FY25, the company’s revenue grew 16% YoY, helped by strong growth in the domestic tea segment. However, its net profit remained flat at Rs 285 crore, mainly due to amortization costs of around Rs 60 crore for the acquisitions of Capital Foods and Organic India. Higher interest costs also impacted profitability.

Tata Consumer Products has focused on premium offerings with new launches such as Tata Tea Premium Care, Tetley Instant Green Tea Ready Mix, and Monsoon Malabar Coffee. The analysts are positive about the company’s focus on premiumization and expansion into new channels like food services and pharma. They believe this strategy will support growth and estimate a revenue CAGR of 11% over FY25-27.

3. Tata Communications:

Coming to yet another Tata pick by analysts - ICICI Securities upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this telecommunications company with a target price of Rs 1,840. This indicates an upside potential of 22.2%. The upgrade follows a stock price decline due to short-term revenue weakness, making valuations attractive. 

Analysts Sanjesh Jain, Mohit Mishra and Aparajita Chakraborty highlight that Tata Communications faced challenges in FY24, including a cable cut in the Red Sea and slow order book growth. However, with the Red Sea issue resolved and strong double-digit order book growth in FY25, revenue is expected to improve.

The analysts mention that the company is expanding its digital services portfolio, with a focus on cloud and AI-driven solutions. Digital services revenue is expected to grow at a 17% CAGR over FY25-27, driven by new product launches such as AI Studio and GPU-as-a-Service. Large deal executions are expected to accelerate revenue from Q4FY25, with digital services likely to break even at the EBITDA level by FY27. The company also plans a Rs 5,500 crore capital expenditure over FY25-27, for network expansion and fiber replacement.

4. Venus Pipes & Tubes:

Anand Rathi retains a ‘Buy’ rating on this small cap pipes & tubes manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,700, indicating an upside potential of 30.9%. The company expanded its production capacity 4.1X over five years to 38,400 tons, during which its market share grew from 3.6% to 6.2%. It is now increasing its capacity to 46,800 metric tons by adding high-grade stainless steel and titanium-welded tubes, fittings, and seamless pipes.

Analysts Parthiv Jhonsa and Prakhar Khajanchi highlight that Venus Pipes has improved its backward integration by producing 14,400 tons of mother hollow pipes, reducing its reliance on external suppliers. Its Rs 180 crore capex plan includes new seamless pipe and tube lines, fittings, and a 4,800-ton piercing line, funded through warrants, long-term debt, and internal accruals.

Jhonsa and Khajanchi expect revenue, EBITDA, and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 24%, 26%, and 28%, respectively, over FY25-27, driven by expanded capacity, improved backward integration, rising domestic market share, and surging exports, which have grown 36 times since FY20 and now contribute 32.2% of revenue.

5. Supreme Industries:

BOB Capital Markets maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this plastic products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 5,150. This indicates an upside potential of 50.5%. The company signed a memorandum of understanding with Wavin Industries to acquire its Indian piping and fittings business for $30 million (approximately Rs 260 crore) plus net working capital. The acquisition includes exclusive access to Wavin BV’s existing and future technologies for India and SAARC countries for seven years.

Analyst Utkarsh Nopany notes that Wavin, a subsidiary of the Netherlands-based Orbia Group, entered India’s plastic pipe market in 2017 and operates three plants with a total capacity of 73,052 metric tons per annum (TPA). He also mentioned that this acquisition will expand Supreme Industries’ piping capacity from 820,000 TPA in December 2024 to 973,000 TPA by June 2025, improving its presence in North and South India. Nopany expects a CAGR of 16.2% in revenue and 22.5% in net profit over FY25-27.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)