• Trendlyne logo
  • Markets
  • Alerts
  • F&O
  • MF
  • Reports
  • Screeners
  • Subscribe
  • Superstars
  • Portfolio
  • Watchlist
  • Insider Trades
  • Results
  • Data Downloader
  • Events Calendar
  • What's New
  • Explore
  • FAQs
  • Widgets
More
    Search stocks
    IND USA
    IND
    IND
    IND
    USA
    • Stocks
    • Futures & Options
    • Mutual Funds
    • News
    • Fundamentals
    • Reports
    • Corporate Actions
    • Alerts
    • Shareholding

    The Baseline

    12
    Following
    368
    Stocks Tracked
    49
    Sectors & Interests
    Follow
    Load latest
    logo
    The Baseline
    07 Mar 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - March 07, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - March 07, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Rail Vikas Nigam:

    This railwayconstruction firm has risen around 4.7% in the last three days after itreceived a letter of acceptance (LoA) from the Himachal Pradesh State Electricity Board (HPSEBL) worth Rs 729.8 crore. The contract involves the development of distribution infrastructure in Himachal Pradesh’s Central Zone.

    RVNL manages the complete life cycle of projects in railway track construction, railway electrification, and signalling solutions. Over the past week, the company received an LoA worth Rs 135.7 crore from Central Railway and also emerged as the lowest bidder for a Rs 156.4 crore South Western Railway project. 

    During Q3FY25, RVNL’s net profit declined 13.1% YoY to Rs 311.4 crore due to higher operating expenses and finance costs. Revenue decreased 2.6% YoY to Rs 4,567.4 crore during the quarter and missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 6.3%. Analysts highlighted that the company’s performance during the quarter was impacted by weak execution and a slowdown in government capex. 

    The company’s order book stood at Rs 97,000 crore as of Q3FY25, with competitive bid projects now making up 45% of its pipeline. RVNL plans to bid for more Metro and BOT (Build, Operate, Transfer) projects from NHAI (National Highways Authority of India). 

    Commenting on the order pipeline, Pradeep Gaurji, the Chairman and Managing Director, said, “We have signed MoUs (Memorandums of Understanding) with Peru and Turkey for railway projects and are also exploring solar ventures. We aim to bid for Rs 80,000 crore in orders and await results for Rs 10,000-12,000 crore worth of bids.”

    For FY25, RVNL expects revenue to remain flat at Rs 22,000 crore and aims to sustain this level in FY26. By FY27, revenue is projected to rise to Rs 27,000-28,000 crore. The company expects EBITDA margins of 5.5-6%, with further improvements.

    Despite the muted outlook, Axis Securities gives the company a ‘Buy’ rating and sets a target price of Rs 501. The brokerage believes that RVNL's robust order book will drive revenue growth. It also expects a pick-up in execution in the near term and projects margins at around 6% in FY25-26. 

    2. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise:

    Thishospital company rose 1.7% over three trading sessions following its March 4announcement of a partnership with Belgium-based Ion Beam Applications (IBA) to introduce the Proteus One Proton Beam Therapy system in India. 

    The India proton therapy market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10% from FY25 to FY32, increasing from $21.3 million in FY24 to $45.6 million by FY32. This therapy is used for specific cancer types, including brain, head, and neck tumors, pediatric cases, and complex cancers.

    Following the partnership, Apollo Hospitalsplans to invest Rs 250 crore in the project to expand its existing proton therapy capacity in Chennai. The new system is expected to be operational by FY28 and will increase treatment capacity by 350 patients annually, bringing the total to 850. 

    The company also plans toadd 3,512 beds between FY26 and FY30, with a total capex of Rs 6,100 crore. Krishnan Akhileswaran, Group Chief Financial Officer,said, “Starting in the second half of next year, we will open hospitals in Pune and Kolkata and a dedicated cancer hospital in Delhi. These facilities will become operational in H2.” The expansion includes commissioning 1,737 beds in FY26 and FY27 and another 1,775 beds beyond FY28.

    InQ3FY25, the company reported a net profit increase of 51.8% YoY to Rs 372.3 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 7.5%. Revenue grew 14.6% YoY to Rs 5,590.7 crore, supported by an 8% YoY increase in inpatient discharges and an 8% YoY growth in average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB).

    The Healthcare Services (Hospital)segment, accounting for 50.4% of total revenue, saw a 13% rise in revenue to Rs 2,785 crore. This was driven by higher revenue from complex procedures in key specialties like Cardiac Sciences, Oncology, and Neurosciences. Apollo HealthCo (Pharmacy Distribution & Digital Health) segment, contributing 42.6% of total revenue, grew 15%, supported by higher online medicine orders. Meanwhile, the AHLL (Diagnostics & Retail Health) segment, with a 7% revenue share, also grew 15%, driven by higher patient footfall in specialty care.

    Prabhudas Lilladhar maintained its ‘Buy’ rating, citing steady hospital revenue growth, expansion plans, and strong Q3 performance. The brokerage noted that Apollo’s digital platform, 24x7, is on track to break even by H2FY26, supporting a target price of Rs 8,100.

    3. NCC:

    This Hyderabad-based construction company has surged 3.4% over the past week after announcing an order win worth Rs 219 crore. This order from an unspecified state government is for the transport division. The firm shows up in a screener of stocks where mutual funds have increased their shareholding in the past two quarters.

    In Q4, the firm reported revenue growth of 2% YoY, while net profit declined 12% YoY during the same period. Flat revenue growth and a decline in profits were due to a slowdown in project execution and delayed receivables, mainly due to the Maharashtra elections. The company expects these metrics to improve in Q4 as the situation normalises.

    The firm gets around 75% of its revenue from segments such as building construction, transmission & distribution, and transportation. The remaining 25% comes from other segments like water and railways, irrigation, and mining. As of Q3, NCC’s order book stood at Rs 55,548 crore across various segments, providing revenue visibility for the next 2-3 years.

    NCC has emerged as the lowest bidder in projects worth over Rs 10,000 crore and expects to receive orders in the current or upcoming quarter. Neerad Sharma, Head of Strategy and Investor Relations, said, “We see a healthy order pipeline in the future as we have bid for projects worth more than Rs 2.4 lakh crore (across segments and states).”

    Axis Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the company, anticipating revenue and net profit CAGRs of 11% and 27%, respectively, over FY25-27. The stock is in the PE Buy Zone, trading below its historical PE after declining approximately 50% from its all-time high. With a target price of Rs 213, NCC has a potential upside of 15%.

    4. Solar Industries India:

    This explosives manufacturer has risen by 8.8% over the past week after securing two major orders. On March 4, its wholly-owned subsidiary, Solar Defence and Aerospace, won a Rs 239 crore contract from the Ministry of Defence to supply multi-mode hand grenades. On February 28, the company also secured Rs 2,150 crore in export orders for defence products.

    Solar Industries secured its biggest-ever order worth Rs 6,084 crore on February 6, with the Ministry of Defence awarding contracts to its arm, Solar Defence, for ‘Pinaka’ (a rocket launching system). The company's current defence order book stands at Rs 11,000 crore, with over Rs 4,400 crore in export orders set for execution over the next 3-4 years.

    The company also signed an agreement with the Maharashtra government to set up a Defence & Aerospace project in Nagpur. The proposed project involves an investment of Rs 12,700 crore. ICICI Securities estimates Solar Industries' capex at Rs 13,000-15,000 crore over the next five years.

    Solar Industries released its Q3FY25 results on February 5. Its net profit rose 55% YoY to Rs 315 crore, while revenue grew 37.7%. However, the stock fell 5.6% that day after MD & CEO Manish Nuwal said the company wouldn’t achieve its 30% revenue growth target for FY25. He said, “Due to a slowdown in the domestic market, volume growth has declined and is impacting revenue. However, we can see the market is much better since January.”

    Nuwal also noted that the company is seeing strong performance across all segments, including defence, beyond the domestic market. He said, “The defence revenue guidance of Rs 1,500 crore for FY25 is sustainable. There may be a 5-10% variation, but we are confident of reaching the target.”

    ICICI Securities retains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 13,720. Based on the current order book, the brokerage believes the company's defence revenue could grow four times from FY25 levels in the next five years. With this, the EBITDA margin is expected to reach 27.9% by FY27, up from 26.7% in Q3FY25.

    5. HPCL:

    This refineries & petro-products company gained over 8% over the past week. On March 5, the company rose by over 6% as OPEC+ decided to gradually roll back the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut, which has been in place since November 2023. The rollback will begin in April 2025 and continue through September- December 2026. As a result, Brent crude oil price hit the $70 per barrel mark, its lowest level since 2021.

    Morgan Stanley revised its Brent crude oil price forecasts for the restof the year, expecting the benchmark to trade in the $60-70 range in the second half. It highlighted that lower crude oil prices benefit refiners like HPCL, as reduced input costs enhance profitability and margins. 

    Reportedly, India's state-run refiners are close to completing the world's longest liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) pipeline, set to begin operations by June and improve supply chain efficiency. The $1.3 billion (approx. Rs 10,700 crore) project was developed by IHB—a joint venture between Indian Oil, BPCL, and HPCL. The 2,800km pipeline will run from Kandla in the west to Gorakhpur in the north. HPCL would benefit from the increased demand and smoother logistics, potentially leading to higher sales volumes.

    The company announced its Q3FY25 results on January 23, 2025. During the quarter, its net profit soared 256.8% YoY to Rs 2,543.7 crore, driven by reduced stock-in-trade purchases and improved inventory management. The company’s revenue beat forecaster estimates by 17.9% due to higher revenue growth in the refining segment. It appears on the screener for stocks showing strong annual EPS growth.

    Rajneesh Narang, Chairman & Managing Director of HPCL, said, “Our consolidated EBITDA target is to reach over Rs 40,000 crore by FY28, driven by the expanded Vizag and Barmer refineries and maturing JV projects. We expect capex of Rs 14,000-15,000 crore over the next 3-4 years, with stable debt and improving debt-to-equity. HPCL is seeing 5-6% marketing volume growth, outpacing PSU OMCs, and rising crude throughput.”

    Emkay has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on HPCL but cut its FY26 EPS estimates by 7-10% due to lower Gross Refining Margins (GRMs). The brokerage highlights HPCL’s 8.5% growth in domestic marketing volumes, outperforming the industry growth of 4.5%. However, it warns that adverse commodity prices and downstream margins could affect the company.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    06 Mar 2025

    Chart of the Week: How has the net worth of Indian superstar investors changed over the past decade?

    By Abdullah Shah

    India’s superstar investors are famous for their stock picks and track records over the past decade. So they draw plenty of imitators – an Ashish Kacholia buy, for instance, can significantly move the stock price the next day. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at superstar investors’ public portfolio holdings from December 2015 to March 2025 and analyse their preferred sectors and investing strategies. 

    Trendlyne's superstar dashboard shows that superstar investors have bet on retailing, software & services, textiles, apparels & accessories, diversified consumer services, and banking & finance. 

    Prominent investors like the late Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (whose portfolio is now managed by RARE Enterprises), Vijay Kedia and Radhakishan Damani saw significant changes in their net worth from June 2018 to March 2025. Most superstars and promoters have seen their net worth fall in the Covid lockdown, and more recently, as the Nifty 50 declined by 14.4% over the past six months.

    Promoters Ambani, Damani and Premji beat career investors, and boast the highest net worth

    Reliance Industries and Jio Financial Services’ promoter, Mukesh Ambani, has the highest net worth of Rs 3.2 lakh crore as of March 2025 (this includes the family’s holdings. His net worth surged to Rs 76,790.2 crore in Q4FY17 after Reliance Industries became the first Indian firm to cross the Rs 6 lakh crore mark in market capitalization during the quarter. 

    Ambani’s portfolio consists of only the above two stocks. His net worth jumped by another 115.4% to Rs 2.8 lakh crore after a significant investment in his digital arm, Jio Platforms. He sold a 33% stake to investors like Google and Facebook, which boosted the value of his holdings in 2020.

    Radhakishan Damani, the promoter of retail chain DMart, dropped to the sixth richest Indian from the third spot in 2024, according to Forbes’ 100 richest Indians in 2024. This came after his net worth eroded by 28.9% in Q3FY25 after DMart’s stock price plunged 30.1% in the quarter. The superstar holds the third largest public stock portfolio among superstar investors. As of March 2025, this superstar investor’s net worth stood at Rs 1.6 lakh crore. 

    In Q3FY16, he ranked 3rd in net worth, but after DMart went public in Q4FY17, his net worth soared to Rs 35,827 crore. During the COVID-19 pandemic in Q4FY20, Damani rose to second in public portfolio net worth, surpassing Premji and Associates and coming behind Mukesh Ambani. 

    Damani is primarily a passive investor who has exited just three positions over the past two years: Astra Microwave, India Cements, and Andhra Paper. Additionally, he has reduced his holdings in three companies from Q3FY23 to March 2025: Blue Dart Express in Q1FY25, Avenue Supermarts in Q1FY24, and VST Industries in Q2FY25.

    Another promoter who ranks near the top of the list is Premji and Associates, with a net worth of Rs 2.1 lakh crore as of March 2025. His portfolio consists of only one stock after selling stakes in Balrampur Chini Mills and Tube Investments of India. This means this superstar investor’s public portfolio value entirely depends on Wipro’s share price. Premji and Associates holds a 72.7% stake in Wipro as of March 2025. Damani overtook Premji in 2019 due to the muted growth of the Indian IT sector, during which Wipro lost 10% of its share value. 

    Superstar investors go on a selling spree in 2024

    The late Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, also known as the Big Bull, has a portfolio of 29 stocks, currently managed by Rare Enterprises. His portfolio value jumped 15.6% to Rs 56,915.4 crore in Q3FY25. Preferred sectors include diversified consumer services (30%), textiles, apparels & accessories (24.7%), and banking & finance (13.9%). 

    Despite an investment slowdown, Rare added a 24.1% stake in Concord Biotech, a 3.7% stake in Baazar Style Retail and a 49.3% stake in Inventurus Knowledge Solutions since September 2023. 

    Rare Enterprises also increased its stake in Geojit Financial Services by 0.2% while reducing stakes in Jhunjhunwala’s top picks, Titan, Jubilant Pharmova, Crisil, Nazara Technologies and Aptech since the start of 2024. Rare reduced stakes across banks like Canara Bank, Federal Bank, and Karur Vysya Bank in the past year. 

    Mukul Agarwal’s net worth rose 21.3% over the past year to Rs 6,062.61 crore, helping the portfolio to jump to the second spot behind Rakesh Jhunjhunwala among the superstar investors. Like Jhunjhunwala, Agarwal prefers stocks from the banking & finance (19%), pharmaceuticals & biotechnology (17.8%), and textiles, apparels & accessories (12%) sectors. His portfolio is one of the most diversified among the superstars, with 64 stocks currently active. 

    Mukul Agarwal has been an active investor since Q3FY23, when he added 30 stocks to his portfolio. The most notable additions are BSE in Q1FY24, Deepak Fertilizers in Q2FY25, Strides Pharma in Q3FY24, and KRN Heat Exchanger & Refrigeration in Q3FY25. Over the past two years, he has exited his positions from 29 stocks, including Paras Defence, Suzlon Energy, Newgen Software, Delta Corp, Karur Vysya Bank, and Raymond.

    Akash Bhansali has a significant investment in the chemicals & petrochemicals (41.6%) sector. He also prefers pharmaceuticals & biotechnology (11.3%) and general industrials (11%) stocks. Bhansali added eight new stocks to his portfolio, including Dilip Buildcon, Genus Power and Natco Pharma, among others, since Q3FY23. He holds substantial stakes in Sudarshan Chemicals (7.9%) and Gujarat Fluorochemicals (4.8%), which serve as the main drivers of his portfolio. He also exited positions in six stocks, like Arvind Fashions, Granules India and Titagarh Rail Systems.

    Ashish Kacholia prefers general industrials (22.7%), pharmaceuticals & biotechnology (16%) and diversified consumer services (14%). His portfolio has a majority of small-cap stocks. In December 2024, he added stocks like Texel Industries (7.9%) and Aelea Commodities (3.8%). Kacholia actively manages his investments, regularly adding new stocks, increasing stakes, and exiting positions. In the past year, he entered or exited 33 positions as the smallcap universe grew volatile, including popular ones such as Man Industries, Awfis Space Solutions, and Gravita India.

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund holds 23 stocks, with a focus on metals & mining (17.4%), general industrials (15.4%) and cement & construction (10.2%). During Q4FY25, Singhania’s portfolio fell by 21.5% due to the downturn in metals stocks. He added a 6.8% stake in Himatsingka Seide and increased his stake in Hindware Home Innovation by 0.1% to 4.6% in Q3FY25. He has reduced his stakes in HIL, IIFL Securities, and Sarda Energy & Minerals. 

    Vijay Kedia focuses mainly on the automobiles and auto components sector (23.1%). In comparison, Nemish Shah’s portfolio is dominated by the general industrial sector (59.3%), and Ashish Dhawan favours the banking and finance sector (44.3%). Vijay Kedia’s net worth has fallen 31.1% in the ongoing Q4FY25 after his portfolio stock, Om Infrastructure, posted weak results in Q3FY25. During Q3FY25, Kedia increased his stakes in Precision Camshafts and Global Vectra while reducing his holdings in Elecon Engineering and Tejas Networks. 

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    06 Mar 2025
    Fast growing companies in a muted market | Screener: Stocks with strong PEG and revenue growth

    Fast growing companies in a muted market | Screener: Stocks with strong PEG and revenue growth

    “When men are brought together,” the French mathematician Henri Poincaré wrote, “they no longer decide independently of each other, but react to one another. ”

    This behaviour is so common that there are many words for it. Herd mentality. Hive mind. Groupthink. As a result, bull markets last longer than valuations can justify. And downcycles, like the current one, can also be long and painful. The same stocks that were so attractive to investors months ago with expensive valuations, investors don't want to touch when they are cheaper. 

    But in addition to macro factors impacting stock markets, investors hate uncertainty. With US President Trump  hitting allies like Canada and Mexico with hard-to-justify tariffs, and promising more tariffs to come for EU, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, and yes, India, stock markets globally have become volatile. 

    Trump also seems to be a man of many moods. He will announce tariffs one day, and his advisers will hint the next morning that these tariffs may be removed. Maybe he just likes watching markets switch from green to red and back again.

    But as India's macro numbers recover, the recent downcycle in stocks may offer some interesting opportunities for investors looking for bargain buys, and willing to ignore the herd.  

    In this week's Analyticks,

    Fast growing players: Companies showing resilience in a weak market

    Screener: Stocks with a strong PEG ratio and good growth in Q3 revenue and net profit

    Let's hunt for some diamonds.


    In an uncertain environment, investment options narrow

    Some economists believe that uncertainty is the world's new reality.  "The past seven-plus decades of free trade..and relatively peaceful cooperation among nations", Robert Kagan writes, "are a great historical aberration."

    The world is now facing tariffs, the rise of populism, and rising conflicts. This makes it more difficult for investors and analysts to predict business growth. Growing exporters may be hit by tariffs that make them less competitive; new sanctions may drive up the price of oil. But there are some companies in the current market that have the wind on their backs.

    Electronics manufacturer Dixon Technologies for example, has made headlines and grown steadily, as major consumer electronics companies shift  their manufacturing from China to India. It is projected by analysts to record an EBITDA growth of 59% CAGR during FY25-27.

    Dixon is working hard to take advantage of its golden moment, via acquisitions, and in trying to enter display fabrication - a significant backward integration move, since it manufactures TVs, smartphones and laptops. If this initiative gets approved under the Indian Semiconductor Mission 2.0. Dixon would be eligible for a subsidy covering nearly 70% of its Rs. 25,000 crore expected capex. 

    We look at similar companies, whose growth outperformance has kept valuations in line. The list includes Nifty players, as well as midcaps and smallcaps across industries that are benefiting from different factors: a growing export niche, government support, new project wins, and so on. 

    To find the full list of these companies, you can look at this screener. To identify these players, the screener looks at the TTM PEG ratio, which is a stock's PE ratio divided by its earnings growth rate.

    When earnings growth is especially high relative to the company's valuation, the PEG will be less than 1, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. A PEG ratio between 0 and 1 is the sweet spot for stocks. The screener also looks at momentum score, year change and revenue growth.

    We discuss some frontrunners below. 

    Top growing companies are in finance, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals

    Among the 137 companies identified, the fastest growing are in a range of industries, with some of the top ones in finance, pharma, fertilizers, engineering and electronics. 

    Finance is a wide ranging sector, and the firms that turn up in this list include banks, NBFCs, and holding companies.  Kotak Mahindra Bank's reasonably strong Q3 performance compared to its peers, has had analysts turn positive on it. Its healthy PEG ratio and its steady net interest margin has made Kotak an attractive bank play for analysts.

    Bajaj Holdings' underlying companies Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Auto have delivered growth in recent quarters in a muted market, although domestic sales for the latter have slowed. Exports for Bajaj Auto however, have been surging, and overtook its domestic sales in February. 

    Sarda Energy is one of the less familiar names in the list, but it has been a steady outperformer recently, with a growth of 120% in share price over the year.

    The company has been investing in expanding its coal mining capacity: it's growing fast in a "dirty" energy industry. It has recently won key clearances such as for the Shahpur West Coal Mine, and is expanding into both power plant and solar energy projects. 

    Avanti Feeds is another player that looks positioned for growth. It hit a five year high today, as I was writing about the stock. Sitharaman's announcement in the Budget to boost the fisheries sector has put wind in its sails.

    Rising shrimp demand from both the US and China also has analysts predicting a strong year for the shrimp industry. 

    GlaxoSmithKline's stellar Q3FY25 performance triggered a surge in investor interest. Profit jumped 5X, and management sounded bullish on continued growth. The company is benefiting from its presence in high growth domestic pharma markets - pediatric and adult vaccines, as well as respiratory treatments. Both these segments are growing sharply as GSK has focused on expanding patient access here. 

    These players, and Dixon Tech, which we discussed earlier, have held on to their momentum (momentum scores all above 50). Expect for Dixon, which has aggressive growth forecasts, these are at reasonable PE levels. 

    You know that disclaimer one hears at the end of every MF ad, said at 1.5X speed: 'investments are subject to market risks'? Market upheavals are unavoidable. In the Trumpian era, they may even be more frequent. 

    But even with volatility, a  quieter market is a great time to look at stocks that seemed too pricey during the bull run. While we have picked out six stocks to analyze, the screener has many interesting names.


    Screener: Stocks with a strong PEG ratio and good growth in Q3 revenue, profit

    Banking & finance stocks have the highest month change and good PEG TTM

    In this section, we look for growth stocks from a slightly different angle. We analyze the PEG ratio (trailing twelve months price/earnings (P/E) to growth ratio). We also see how the stocks did in the most recent quarter results, in Q3FY25. This screener identifies such stocks, with a TTM PEG ratio between 0 and 1 and good YoY growth in Q3FY25 revenue and net profit. 

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the banking & finance, general industrials, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, realty, and automobile & auto components sectors. Notable stocks in the screener are GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals, Shriram Finance, Hindalco Industries, Chambal Fertilisers, Cholamandalam Finance, Hitachi Energy India, Union Bank of India, and Go Digit General Insurance. 

    GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals shows up in the screener with a TTM PEG ratio of 0.8. This pharmacauticals company also rose 34.3% over the past month. Its net profit and revenue surged by 402.8% YoY and 17.9% YoY, respectively, in Q3FY25, helping to lower its TTM PEG. The company’s revenue increased on the back of volume growth of 11% YoY and a price hike of 3% in the general medicine segment, and a 14% YoY increase in its vaccine portfolio.

    Hindalco Industries has a good TTM PEG of 0.2. This aluminium & aluminium products company’s stock price jumped 11.8% over the past month. The company’s net profit and revenue increased by 60.2% YoY and 10.6% YoY in Q3FY25, helping to lower its TTM PEG. An improvement in sales volumes and margins from the upstream (mining and refining) and downstream aluminium (final products) and copper segments drove the company’s net profit and revenue growth.

    You can find more screeners here.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline created a screener Fast growing companies with …
    05 Mar 2025

    Fast growing companies with steady momentum

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    04 Mar 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - March 04, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - March 04, 2025

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. SRF:

    Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this specialty chemicals firm with a target price of Rs 3,250. This indicates a potential upside of 13.9%. SRF is experiencing strong demand and higher prices for refrigerant gases in India. Globally, prices of R32 and R22, commonly used in air conditioning and cooling, are rising due to higher refrigerant gas prices in China and a shift to eco-friendly alternatives with lower global warming impact. Analysts Meet Vora and Meet Gada expect prices to remain stable through this season and into 2025. 

    Vora and Gada noted the company’s efforts to reduce costs for key products while keeping profit margins steady (EBITDA margin at 19.7% in FY24). SRF’s new active ingredients (AIs) are expected to start making a significant impact from FY26 and reach full production by FY28. The total market for manufacturing these AIs is estimated at around $1-1.5 billion, with SRF aiming to capture a 35-40% share.

    The analysts project SRF’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 17.6% and net profit at 52% over FY25-27. This growth is expected to be driven by increasing contributions from new products, and rising refrigerant gas prices globally.

    2. Godrej Properties:

    Hem Securities initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this Mumbai-based realty company with a target price of Rs 2,405. This indicates a potential upside of 19.8%. The company’s revenue grew 126% YoY to Rs 1,240 crore in Q3FY25, driven by the delivery of 2.6 million square feet (msf) of projects.

    Analyst Deepanshu Jain highlights that the company has achieved 71% of its Rs 27,000 crore FY25 booking value target. Godrej Properties has surpassed its business development guidance of Rs 20,000 crore, adding 16.9 msf of saleable area with a potential booking value of Rs 23,450 crore. 

    Management remains confident in achieving its Rs 30,000 crore launch target, supported by Rs 7,000 crore in Q4 launches across Hyderabad, Noida, Gurugram, Mumbai, Pune, and Indore. The company also raised Rs 6,000 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP) to expand its project pipeline.

    Jain is optimistic about the company, citing its CY24 pre-sales of Rs 2.9 lakh crore as the highest among peers. With better cash flow, a strong land bank, and high demand, he expects sales to grow at 39.8% CAGR and net profit at 31.4% over FY25-26.

    3. AU Small Finance Bank:

    ICICI Securities upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this bank with a target price of Rs 725, indicating a potential upside of 32.2%. AU Small Finance Bank (AU SFB) merged with Fincare Small Finance Bank in April 2024. Following the merger, AU SFB’s profitability was affected by higher-than-expected loan defaults in its credit card (CC) and microfinance (MFI) portfolios, leading to increased credit costs. For 9MFY25, credit costs stood at 5.4% in the MFI segment and 9.2% in the CC segment. 

    AU SFB’s return on assets (RoA) fell to 1.5% in Q3, reflecting a continued pressure on profitability. Analysts Renish Bhuva and Chintan Shah expect RoA to gradually improve to ~1.8% by FY27, driven mainly by a reduction in credit costs, which are projected to normalize to 3% in the MFI segment and 6–7% in the credit card segment.

    Bhuva and Shah are optimistic about the RBI’s 25 bps rate cut to 6.25%, believing that the bank is well-positioned to benefit the most in the current falling rate cycle. They point out that during the last rate-cut cycle, the repo rate dropped from 6.5% in December 2018 to 4% in May 2020. Within a year of the cut, AU SFB’s margins expanded by 100–120 bps.

    The bank’s management has raised its net interest margin (NIM) estimate to 6% for FY25, up from its earlier guidance of 5.8% in H1 FY25, while analysts expect it to be slightly higher at 6.2%.

    4. Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences:

    Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this hospitals company with a target price of Rs 622, indicating an upside of 21.3%. In Q3FY25, the company’s revenue grew 27.5% YoY to Rs 772 crore, while average revenue per operating bed (ARPOB) increased by 25.2%. However, occupancy declined to 50.7% from 61.6% in Q3 FY24, mainly due to lower occupancy at its Telangana facilities. 

    Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS) recently signed an agreement with Valiyath Institute of Medical Sciences (VIMS) in Kerala’s Kollam district to manage its 300-bed facility. It also plans to expand capacity over the next two years, including in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. The company has allocated Rs 500-600 crore for expansion in the coming year.

    The analysts highlight that with new units set to contribute, KIMS is well-positioned to achieve its FY25 revenue growth target of 24% and continue expanding beyond that. They project revenue and profit CAGR of 28% and 32%, respectively, over FY25-27.

    5. Healthcare Global Enterprises:

    Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this cancer care hospitals company with a target price of Rs 575, indicating an upside potential of 12.1%. In Q3FY25, revenue rose 18.9% YoY to Rs 1,058.7 crore, driven by a 3.5% YoY increase in average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) and 16% growth in occupied days. 

    Analysts Ankush Mahajan and Aman Goyal note that during the quarter, the company acquired MG Hospital in Vizag, which contributed Rs 25 crore in revenue with EBITDA margins of 24%. The company’s digital business grew by 14% YoY, generating Rs 76 crore in revenue. Meanwhile, KKR, an American private-equity and investment firm, acquired a majority stake 54% in Healthcare Global for approximately Rs 3,350 crore, taking full control from CVC Asia.

    Mahajan and Goyal stated that the company operates in the cancer treatment industry, which is expanding at 17% CAGR. To capitalize on the emerging opportunities the company plans to add 900 beds over the next 4-5 years. Management expects EBITDA margins to expand by 100-150 bps in FY26. The analysts also anticipate a 1,000 bps increase in return on invested capital (RoIC) over the next three years.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    28 Feb 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - February 28, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - February 28, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Ultratech Cement:

    This cement & cement products company fell 6.2% since Thursday despite announcing its foray into the wires and cables (W&C) segment, investing Rs 1,800 crore to set up a plant in Gujarat over the next two years. 

    The stock plunged after analysts at Citi Research said the expansion would hurt Ultratech’s positioning as a pure-play cement company. Other analysts at JM Financial, Axis Capital, and Jefferies noted that the firm’s investment in a non-cement business might raise doubts among investors about capital allocation. 

    The company’s board of directors also approved the demerger of the cement business from its subsidiary, Kesoram Industries. As per the demerger agreement, shareholders of Kesoram Industries will get one share of the demerged entity for every 52 shares held in the company.

    The board aims to meet the growing demand for wires and cables across residential, commercial, infrastructure, and industrial sectors. The wires and cables industry grew at a CAGR of 13% from FY19-24. 

    CLSA expects the new segment to drive 4x- 5x revenue growth with 11-13% margins. However, the brokerage expects rising competition in the wires and cables segment may hurt sector profitability. It also expects UltraTech to prioritize wires over cables in its new venture. 

    Speaking on the expansion plans, Ultratech Cement’s Chairman, Kumar Mangalam Birla said, “We intend to expand our presence in the construction value chain through our foray in the cables and wires segment, which aligns with our vision of providing comprehensive solutions to our end customers in the construction sector.”

    The company’s expansion news came as a disaster for the cables & wires industry, with Polycab India, KEI Industries, R R Kabel, and Havells India plunging 18.8%, 21%, 19.8%, and 6.2%, respectively, on Thursday. These stocks fell after expectations of de-rating and margin pressure from investors.

    2. Blue Star:

    This air conditioner manufacturer's stock rose 2.5% on February 27 after it announced the commissioning of a new assembly line for room air conditioners (AC) at its Sri City plant in Andhra Pradesh. The company has allocated Rs 200 crore for the project, expanding its capacity by 20,000 units per month.

    Blue Star’s Sri City facility is operating at full capacity with 6.5 lakh units and will expand to 12 lakh units by FY27. The company aims for a 13.8% market share by FY25 and 14.3% in FY26. Its 15% target, initially set for FY25, has been pushed to FY27.

    Managing Director B. Thiagarajan said, "We aim to maintain an 8.5% operating margin while working towards a 15% market share. The original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are increasing their production capacity, which should help stabilize supply and demand." He also mentioned that the room AC market is expected to grow by 20-25% with a promising summer ahead.

    In Q3FY25, Blue Star’s revenue grew 20% YoY, driven by outperformance in the electro-mechanical projects and commercial AC segment. Net profit rose 36% YoY, driven by lower finance costs and inventory destocking. Both revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 4% and 5%, respectively.

    Over the past quarter, foreign investors increased their holdings from 18.1% to 18.5%, while mutual funds reduced their stake from 20.8% to 20.1%. However, mutual funds have shown renewed interest, as the stock appears in a screener of companies where they increased holdings in the last month.

    Jefferies downgraded Blue Star to 'Hold', citing limited upside potential after the stock surged 140% in CY24. However, the brokerage noted that demand for ACs and cooling products in Q4FY25 is expected to exceed 25%.

    3. Havells India:

    This electrical equipment company fell 6.2% to a new 52-week low of Rs 1,402.2 on Thursday, following UltraTech Cement's announcement of its entry into the wires and cables segment, with a Rs 1,800 crore investment over the next two years. This development is expected to intensify competition and lead to pricing pressures in the industry, impacting companies like Havells India, Polycab India, and KEI Industries.

    In Q3FY25, Havells' net profit fell 3.3% YoY to Rs 278.3 crore as its EBITDA margin contracted 100bps YoY to 8.8%. However, revenue grew 10.8% YoY to Rs 4,889 crore, driven by the wires and cables segment, which rose 7% YoY to Rs 1,690 crore. This segment contributes 35% to the total revenue. 

    The lighting segment faced challenges due to price cuts owing to competitive pressure from brands like Philips, which impacted the margins. Havells’ Lloyd division, acquired in 2017 for Rs 1,600 crore, still remains unprofitable. Although performance improves during peak seasons, the division has not yet achieved full-year breakeven.

    Havells India plans to enter the electric vehicle (EV) charging market within the next six months. Vivek Yadav, Executive Vice President of the company,stated, “The EV scene in India is set to grow multi-fold. We identified chargers as a key business, as the charging infrastructure in India is still nascent.” The company intends to start with a business-to-business focus on automakers before expanding into the retail market.

    Additionally, Havells is investing in internet-connected household devices, enhancing its Internet of Things (IoT) capabilities, which enables consumers to monitor and optimize their energy consumption efficiently. Yadav noted that the company allocates over 2% of its turnover to research and development.

    Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Neutral’ rating on the company, highlighting that while revenue growth in Q3FY25 was driven by improved consumer demand, lower margins in the switchgear segment and higher losses in the Lloyd division weighed on earnings. The brokerage expects revenue, EBITDA, and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 14%, 21%, and 23% over FY25-27.

    4. Chalet Hotels:

    Thishotel company’s share price rose 3.6% over the past week afterICICI Securities increasedthe target price to Rs 1,017 (from Rs 965 earlier) while retaining its ‘Buy’ call. Chalet Hotels recentlyacquired Mahananda Spa and Resorts in an all-cash deal worth Rs 530 crore. 

    This deal adds the Westin Resort & Spa to Chalet Hotels' portfolio. The acquired hotel has 141 rooms, with an expected average room rate of Rs 25,000-30,000 per night. The resort has 45% occupancy and is expected to reach 60% within a year. With the addition of these 141 rooms, the company will have around 3,200. It aims to reach around 5,000 rooms over the next two quarters. 

    Chalet Hotels’ revenue grew 21.9% YoY to Rs 457.8 crore inQ3FY25, beatingTrendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 0.6%. Improvements in the hospitality and rental segments drove growth. Meanwhile, net profit increased 36.7% YoY to Rs 96.5 crore.

    During thequarter, the company’s hospitality revenue grew 17% YoY. Chalet Hotels’ revenue per available room (RevPAR) increased 16% to Rs 9,090, while its occupancy reached 70%. The management is optimistic that the company will achieve double-digit RevPAR in FY25. 

    Commenting on the future outlook, Managing Director and CEO Sanjay Sethisaid, “Q4 is always better than Q3, and we expect this trend to continue in the coming quarters. For Q1FY26, we see weddings contributing to demand, which was not the case last year, providing an upside. Additionally, we expect corporate travel to remain strong in the coming months.”

    ICICI Securities believes the recent acquisition strengthens growth prospects while its expansion plans are on track. The brokerage is optimistic about Chalet's growth, citing its rental expansion, hotel developments, and upcoming projects like the Taj Hotel at Delhi Airport T3, Hyatt Regency Navi Mumbai, and CIGNUS POWAI Tower II. Analysts expect strong industry demand driven by leisure and business travel. The changing preference for branded hotels, a shift of weddings to hotels, and growth in destination weddings also bode well for the hotel operator.

    5. Bharti Airtel:

    Thistelecom company surged 2.5% on Wednesday following theannouncement of ongoing discussions to merge the Tata Group’s DTH business with its own. This deal is reportedly expected to be structured as a share swap, with Airtel acquiring a majority stake and existing Tata Play shareholders retaining a 45-48% stake in the combined entity.

    InQ3, the firm reported revenue growth of 19%, and its net profit surged six times YoY. Both revenue and net profit exceeded Forecaster estimates. The surge in net profit was due to the consolidation of Indus Towers and a lower tax rate. Average revenue per user (ARPU) grew 18% YoY to Rs 245, driven by tariff hikes, and net subscriber addition stood at around 5 million, 50% higher than that of Jio.

    Mobile services, whichcontribute most of its revenue, surged 21% YoY as subscribers transitioned from 2G to 4G. Postpaid subscriber growth of 13% YoY and rising ARPU added to the revenue surge. VC and MD Gopal Vittal believes that 80 million subscribers can potentially upgrade to Airtel’s postpaid services, further adding to the growth momentum.

    Bharti Airtel incurred 5% lower capex of Rs 7,400 crore in Q3 compared to the same period last year. Vittalsaid, “We are not putting any investments in 4G capacity; all we are doing is a few more 5G radios as we expand and see more devices coming in.” He expects capex to decline this year and further reduce in FY26.

    ICICI Securitiesmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock as it expects Bharti to increase its market share further and narrow its gap with Jio. They also believe that disciplined capital allocation and tight control on capex will improve EBITDA margins by 410bps in FY26. With a target price of Rs 1,925, Bharti Airtel has a potential upside of 22.6%.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    26 Feb 2025
    Nifty Midcap is the winner among indices. But it's not without risks | Screener: Stocks that outperformed Q3, with strong estimates for next quarter

    Nifty Midcap is the winner among indices. But it's not without risks | Screener: Stocks that outperformed Q3, with strong estimates for next quarter

    By Tejas MD

    The Indian stock market has been caught in a bear hug. The Nifty 50 is set to post losses for the fifth straight month—a trend we haven't seen since 1996. Unlike previous sharp corrections though, this downturn has been a slow bleed, with red ink drip-dripping across the charts every month.

    Just six months ago, the mood was very different. Markets were hitting record highs. It seemed like stocks could only go up.

    A mix of heavy FII selling, earnings downgrades, and global uncertainty, especially from the US, sent the market into reverse. If you poured in money during the highs, well, let’s just say that it hasn’t been the most rewarding stretch.

    As the joke goes, "Everyone becomes a long-term investor in a falling market."

    So with this extended correction, have valuations finally become attractive, or are stocks still overpriced?

    To get a clearer picture, we turned to Trendlyne’s Historical PE Analysis tool to see where things stand for the Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap 100, and Nifty Smallcap 100.

    Let’s dive in.

    In this week’s Analyticks, 

    • Valuation check: The benchmark Nifty 50 index turns attractive 
    • Screener: Stocks which beat Q3 Forecaster estimates for revenue and net profit with high revenue and EPS growth expectations for Q4FY25

    Nifty Midcap 100 wins in the long run, but there are risks

    The recent market correction has dragged the major indices down from their peaks. The Nifty 50 and Nifty Midcap 100 have entered the correction zone after falling over 10% from their highs, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 has crossed the 20% loss mark (bear market territory). 

    Nifty Midcap 100 outperforms peers in long term gains

    Despite these short-term setbacks, the Nifty Midcap 100 has proven its strength over the long run, outperforming both the Nifty 50 and the Nifty Smallcap 100. But this impressive performance comes with heightened valuation risks.

    Sankaran Naren, Chief Investment Officer of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, said in an event on February 12, “India has one of the best macros in the world compared to other countries, but our smallcap and midcap valuations are absolutely absurd right now”. He asked investors to pause their SIP in the current environment.  

    However on Monday, Citigroup upgraded its rating on Indian stocks from ‘neutral’ to ‘overweight’, pointing to improving consumer sentiment, expected rate cuts, and minimal exposure to US trade risk.

    Midcaps shine, but earnings struggle

    The Nifty Midcap 100 has historically commanded a higher price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, due to the stronger growth potential of its companies, which are seen as mid-sized and fast-growing. At 33.9, it has the highest PE among the three major indices.

    But this elevated PE is also due to a sharp drop in its earnings per share (EPS) in Q4FY24.

    Nifty 50 PE falls 12.2% in the past year, while Nifty Midcap 100 PE surges 33.2%

    The Q3FY25 results did not help the Nifty Midcap’s EPS recover to the March 2024 level. Companies like Oil India (Oil and gas), Petronet LNG (Oil and gas), and Oracle Financial Services (Software and services) reported sharp falls in their EPS. As a result, the Nifty Midcap continues to trade at a high PE.

    Analysts see Nifty 50 as the most promising, backed by historical data

    Like the Nifty Midcap, the Nifty Smallcap 100 is also trading at a premium compared to its 10-year average. Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 both beat the Nifty 50 in revenue growth - they posted a Q3FY25 revenue growth of 8.2% and 8.7%, outpacing Nifty 50’s 4.5% increase. 

    But indices with high PE ratios are more vulnerable to market downturns, as seen in the past quarter. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 both suffered steeper losses than the Nifty 50.

    In comparison, the Nifty 50 appears more reasonably valued. Its current PE is below its historical averages, and its forward PE of 19 makes it even more appealing.

    Buy zone?: 1 year forward PE of indices below current PE

    Beating the bears: Midcaps dominate the list of top performers

    The top-performing midcap companies have held on to their gains over the past year, even as the broader market has faced turbulence.

    In contrast, smallcap stocks have taken a big hit since the correction began, wiping out the triple-digit returns that once dominated the Nifty Smallcap 100. This has especially hurt large investors who specialize in smallcaps, like Ashish Kacholia.

    Top performers in Nifty Midcap 100 outperform large and Smallcap cos

    Midcaps have emerged as clear winners, with all the top five stock market performers in the Nifty Midcap 100. In the Nifty 50, the auto sector has stood out, with Mahindra & Mahindra and Eicher Motors securing two of the top five spots. 

    Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been selective in their bets. Only five companies across the three indices saw FII holdings increase by over 3% in Q3FY25: IDFC First Bank, Voltas, BSE, PNB Housing, CDSL, and Chambal Fertilisers. And none of these companies are in the Nifty 50.

    Worst-performing stocks: some investors are feeling the pain

    The Nifty Smallcap 100 has struggled in the past year, with only 43% of its stocks delivering gains. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty 50 have fared slightly better, with 53% and 50% winner-to-loser ratios, respectively.

    Four companies across the three indices have lost nearly half their value. Hopefully, none of your portfolio picks are on this list—Mangalore Refineries (falling profits), Vodafone Idea (loss-making), Sterling and Wilson (PE of 234), Tanla Platforms (falling profits) and Sonata Software(falling margins).

    Five companies in the Nifty Smallcap 100 lose nearly half their value in the past year

    In the Nifty 50, Adani Enterprises takes the unwanted top spot as the worst performer, shedding a third of its value over the past year.

    The market correction has affected all the major indices. While midcaps have outperformed over the long term, their high valuations and recent earnings struggles raise concerns. Large caps appear more reasonably valued and could offer a safer bet amid market uncertainty. 

    But foreign brokerages like Citi and Jefferies are turning bullish on Indian markets, citing Nifty 50's attractive valuation at 19x forward earnings, which is below its historical averages.

    Looking ahead, factors like good Q4 earnings, rate cuts and FII interest could provide some support. But the red flags of elevated valuations in mid and small-cap stocks are still there. 


    Screener: Stocks which beat Q3 Forecaster estimates for revenue and net profit with high revenue and EPS growth expectations for Q4FY25

    Stocks beating Forecaster estimates are from diverse sectors

    With the end of the Q3FY25 results season, we look at stocks that outperformed expectations during the quarter, that also have high growth estimates for Q4FY25. This screener shows stocks which beat Trendlyne's Forecaster estimates for revenue and net profit in Q3FY25, with high revenue and EPS YoY growth expectations for Q4FY25.

    The screener consists of stocks from the aerospace & defence, cement & cement products, commercial vehicles, consumer electronics, IT consulting & software, and pharmaceuticals industries. Interesting stocks in the screener are Bharat Electronics, Ambuja Cements, Indian Hotels Company, Ashok Leyland, Blue Star, APL Apollo Tubes, Bajaj Finance, and Bharti Airtel.

    Bharat Electronics features in the screener after beating Forecaster estimates for revenue and net profit by 17.4% and 37.3%, respectively, in Q3FY25. This aerospace & defence stock’s revenue and net profit grew 37.6% YoY and 52.5% YoY, respectively. Revenue growth was supported by a strong order book of Rs 71,100 crore and an order inflow of Rs 11,000 crore during 9MFY25.

    Analysts at Motilal Oswal expect the company’s revenue to surge on the back of large-sized order inflows from quick reaction surface-to-air missile (QRSAM) and next-generation corvettes. However, the focus will shift to order execution. Any delays can hurt the company’s top and bottom line. 

    Indian Hotels’ Q3FY25 revenue and net profit beat forecaster estimates by 4.3% and 1.1%, respectively. This hotels stock’s revenue increased by 29.4% YoY, driven by an improvement in the food & beverage and new business segments, rising average room rate (ARR), and occupancy.

    Its net profit jumped by 28.9% YoY, led by improving margins in the new business segment and a recovery in US subsidiaries. Axis Direct expects the company’s revenue and net profit to grow on the back of a low supply of rooms and an increase in Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs), which positively impact ARRs.

    You can find more screeners here.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    26 Feb 2025

    Chart of the Week: FIIs hit the brakes, shift into reverse

    By Abdullah Shah

    2024 witnessed a slew of global conflicts, sticky inflation, and high interest rates, resulting in Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) getting a lot pickier with their investments in the Indian equity market. Investments and withdrawals were sector-specific investments and withdrawals. 

    The trend persists in 2025 as Trump has been known to make both friends and enemies easily, and he brings this penchant into geopolitics. Markets have reacted sharply to his tariffs against allies and his outreach to Putin. 

    Since January 2024, FIIs have sold total equities worth Rs 77,597 crore. FII shareholding in Indian equities were at a 12-year low of 16% in January 2025.

    Speaking on the FII sell-off, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, “FIIs go out when they are in a position to book profits. The Indian economy has an environment today where investments are yielding good results and profit-booking is happening.” 

    Sitharaman is dodging a bit here. Profit booking isn’t the only factor driving FIIs to sell. Concerns such as earnings downgrades, a weakening rupee, slower-than-expected GDP growth, and anemic private capital expenditure are also fueling the outflows.

    This Chart of the Week dives into the patterns of FII investments across various sectors in the past several months.

    FIIs trim holdings in Finance, Oil & Gas, and IT stocks 

    The financial sector bore the brunt of FII sell-offs in 2024 and January 2025. FIIs offloaded financial sector shares worth Rs 83,229 crore since January 2024, with January and October 2024 witnessing the highest outflows of Rs 30,013 crore and Rs 26,139 crore, respectively. 

    After four consecutive years of healthy double-digit growth, Indian equities faced earnings downgrades in the past two quarters. 

    The Indian government's estimates for GDP in FY25 confirmed the vibes – that the economy is seeing a slowdown. Real GDP growth is estimated to decelerate to 6.4% from 8.2% in FY24. This is below both the Ministry of Finance's forecast of 6.5% and the Reserve Bank of India's projection of 6.6%. 

    The Indian rupee also weakened to a record low of Rs 87.2 against the US dollar in January 2025, after the RBI stopped aggressively defending the rupee via dollar sales. This depreciation has increased currency risk for FIIs, potentially triggering further outflows as investors sought to limit foreign exchange losses. 

    Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, noted, "Despite the massive FPI selling in financials, this sector is resilient since the valuations are fair and every selling is being absorbed by Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) and individual investors, particularly HNIs." 

    The oil & gas sector also saw substantial FII exits, with total sell-offs amounting to Rs 57,912 crore by January 2025. Notably, October, November, and December 2024 alone accounted for Rs 45,616 crore of these outflows. 

    Fluctuating global oil prices from geopolitical tensions and supply-demand imbalances from US sanctions on Russian crude oil, have created uncertainty in the sector. FIIs further lost confidence in the sector due to domestic policy adjustments, including changes in subsidies and taxation.

    The oil & gas marketing industry’s revenue and net profit declined by 3.8% YoY and 65.8% YoY during Q3FY25, further contributing to the sell-off. With the sector weakening, BPCL fell out of the Nifty 50 index in the most recent reshuffle.

    The IT sector presents a mixed picture. While specific periods saw FII interest, the overall trend  indicates caution. In January 2025, FIIs withdrew approximately Rs 6,471 crore from IT stocks, reversing the Rs 14,566 crore invested in November and December 2024. Signs of a potential slowdown in key markets such as the US, have investors anticipating reduced demand for IT services.

    High valuations in the IT sector and earnings downgrades prompted FIIs to book profits. Aamar Deo Singh, Senior Vice President of equity, commodity, and currency at Angel One, referred to this as a "double whammy," as the dip in consumer sentiment follows higher-than-expected January inflation figures of 3% compared to 2.9% in December. 

    Consumer Services and Capital Goods sectors see limited FII interest

    FIIs showed mixed interest in sectors like consumer services and capital goods. While these sectors saw good FII activity, the investments were modest. The sectors saw FII investment in H1CY24. However, investor interest declined towards the end of 2024 and January 2025.  

    Despite the Union Budget's focus on boosting discretionary spending, concerns over stretched valuations and a slowing trend in urban consumption led to profit-booking by foreign investors. A continued recovery in demand is needed for investors to return.

    Healthcare and Realty sectors attract FIIs, backed by favourable government regulations

    As a defensive sector, the healthcare sector attracted FII investments with inflows of Rs 23,984 since January 2024. The sector also witnessed FIIs investing Rs 20,823 crore from June to September 2024 after expectations of increased spending. India's healthcare sector continued to expand, with growing demand for hospital chains, specialized treatments, and innovative drug research. Government initiatives to improve healthcare services made the sector attractive to foreign investors.

    The realty sector saw a surge in foreign institutional investments of Rs 5,375 crore, Rs 2,061 crore and Rs 4,778 crore in September, November, and December 2024. This suggests growing confidence in India's real estate market. Rapid urbanization and government initiatives aimed at infrastructure development have strengthened the realty sector's prospects. 

    Overall, 2024 witnessed significant FII outflows, with financials and oil & gas sectors facing the largest withdrawals. So far, 2025 has seen a similar trend. However, the healthcare and real estate sectors have attracted foreign investments – investors are lifting some boats over others

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    25 Feb 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - February 25, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - February 25, 2025

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Nazara Technologies:

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this internet software company with a target price of Rs 1,080. This indicates an upside potential of 16.9%. Analysts Abhisek Banerjee and Jayram Shetty highlight its strong growth potential, supported by recent acquisitions, business expansion, and a solid market position in gaming, eSports, and ad-tech.

    The company is expanding through acquisitions, including a 60% stake in indoor play center Funky Monkeys for Rs 43.7 crore, marking its entry into the physical entertainment gaming segment. It also acquired CATS: Crash Arena and King of Thieves from ZeptoLab for Rs 65.5 crore, strengthening its mobile gaming portfolio. Additionally, its eSports subsidiary, Nodwin Gaming, acquired esports events business StarLadder for Rs 46.8 crore, enhancing its global eSports leadership.

    Banerjee and Shetty note that the investor interest remains strong, with Axana Estates investing ~Rs 495 crore for a 5.4% stake, alongside a public offer for an additional 26%. Management targets Rs 300 crore EBITDA by FY27, driven by scaling up its content library and expanding partnerships with game developers and publishers.

    2. Marico:

    Sharekhan retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this consumer goods manufacturer with a target price of Rs 780, indicating a potential upside of 25.4%. The company’s Q3FY25 revenue rose 15.4% YoY to Rs 2,794 crore due to growth in core categories such as coconut oil, hair oils, and premium refined edible oils, along with contributions from new business expansion, while its net profit increased 4.2% YoY to Rs 399 crore.

    The analysts note that the domestic volume grew 6%, improving from 5% in Q2 and 4% in Q1. International sales rose 16%, driven by 20% growth in Bangladesh, 35% in the Middle East and North Africa, and 17% in South Africa. Operating profit rose, but operating margin fell 210 bps YoY to 19.1% due to higher copra and vegetable oil prices.

    The company’s management believes that the consistent growth in the core portfolio, driven by brands like Parachute and Saffola, and over 20% growth in the foods and premium personal care portfolio, led by Saffola Oats, True Elements, Plix and Beardo. Additionally, a double-digit growth in the international business will help revenue expansion in the medium term. Analysts are optimistic about the company and expect a CAGR of 11.9% in revenue and 15.1% in net profit over FY25-27.

    3. Federal Bank:

    Emkay retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 240, indicating an upside potential of 34.3%. Analysts Anand Dama and Nikhil Vaishnav highlight the bank’s efforts under new MD & CEO KVS Manian to strengthen its core and become a top private bank.

    Dama and Vaishnav note that the bank has built a strong digital and physical network, a diverse loan portfolio, and stable leadership. The bank now aims to improve profitability with a return on assets (RoA) of 1.4-2.3% over the next 3-4 years and join top private banks like ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. To achieve this, it is focusing on improving margins and asset quality.

    Recently, the bank has taken steps such as deliberately slowing growth to manage liquidity and asset quality risks, increasing provisions for bad loans, and shifting auto loans to fixed rates to handle interest rate changes better. It plans to improve its CASA (current and savings account) ratio to 36% from 30% by FY28 by expanding in Tier-2 cities, attracting non-resident deposits, and offering wealth management services. 

    4. Indus Towers:

    Ventura initiates coverage on this telecom infrastructure company with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 450. This indicates a potential upside of 35.7%. The company’s net profit surged 2.6X YoY to Rs 4,003 crore in Q3FY25. This increase was mainly after Indus reversed a Rs 3,020 crore provision (previously set aside for doubtful payments from Vodafone Idea), bringing the total pending amount down to Rs 500 crore. Additionally, the company raised Rs 1,910 crore in Q3 by selling a pledged 3% stake held by Vodafone PLC.

    The analysts highlight that 5G rollouts are driving demand for towers and co-locations. In Q3, Indus Towers added 4,985 macro towers and 7,583 co-locations. They note that growing 5G adoption will require more infrastructure to manage increasing traffic. Indus Towers is expanding its In-Building Solutions (IBS) portfolio, with small cell deployment in malls, airports, and stadiums to improve indoor coverage and network capacity.

    The analysts expect the company’s tenancy ratio (average tenants per tower) to increase from the current 1.65X to 1.7X by FY27.

    5. Ethos:

    Axis Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this specialty retail firm with a target price of Rs 3,070, indicating a potential upside of 20.7%. A retailer of luxury watches and accessories, Ethos added five new stores in Q3FY25, bringing the total count to 73. The company’s management stated that it remains committed to expansion and aims to open six more boutiques by the end of FY25.

    Ethos reported a 32% YoY revenue growth in Q3, reaching Rs 376 crore. EBITDA margins stood at 15.4%, down 42 bps, impacted by higher costs from hiring staff for new stores and rent for recently opened stores that are still in their early sales phase.

    Analysts Preeyam Tolia and Suhanee Shome project the company's revenue to grow at a 34.5% CAGR over FY25-27, driven by a higher share of high-margin exclusive brands and expansion into luxury segments like luggage and jewellery. The company’s management aims for 10x revenue growth over the next decade.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    21 Feb 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - February 21, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - February 21, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Narayana Hrudayalaya:

    Thishealthcare facilities company surged 3.1% on February 18 following the announcement of itsQ3FY25 results. During the quarter, the company’s revenue rose 13.6% YoY to Rs 1,366.7 crore. Its net profit grew 2.6% YoY to Rs 192.9 crore, beating theForecaster estimates by 6.6%. 

    The growth was driven by better realizations, with an Average Revenue Per Occupied Bed (ARPOB)growth of 9% YoY, and increased domestic patient footfalls. However, international patient volumes declined by 51% YoY and 48% QoQ, primarilydue to a drop in patients from Bangladesh amid geopolitical issues.

    In Q3FY25, revenue from the Cayman Islandsrose 14% YoY, accounting for 21% of total sales. Growth was driven by strong outpatient demand at the new Camana Bay hospital. Inpatient department operations began in January 2025, with full operationalization expected by Q4FY25.

    Sandhya J, Group Chief Financial Officer of the companysaid, “We are entering a capex growth phase right now, and are going to add at least 1,400 beds in the next 3 to 4 years.” The company plans toexpand further, adding about 2,000 beds over six years.

    To support this expansion, the company has allocated acapex of Rs 1,650 crore in FY25, Rs 1,000 crore in FY26, and Rs 850 crore in FY27. Key projects driving this expansion include new hospitals in Bangalore and Kolkata, a 300-bed expansion in Raipur, and a 220-bed facility in Central Bangalore. Additionally, the company isexploring expansion opportunities in existing locations and aims for returns of over 15%. 

    Post results, Prabhudas Lilladhermaintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the company, citing its aggressive expansion plans and strong financial performance, including a 10% YoY increase in EBITDA and 9% YoY ARPOB growth in India. The brokerage also highlights operational efficiencies, improved margins in new India units, and the anticipated ramp-up of the Cayman unit as key factors supporting its recommendation, with a target price of Rs 1,560.

    2. Muthoot Finance:

    This gold loan NBFC surged by 6.2% on February 13 following the announcement of its Q3FY25 results. Muthoot Finance’s net profit increased 25.9% YoY to Rs 1,389.2 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 4.4%. Revenue grew 35.9% YoY to Rs 5,189.7 crore during the quarter. 

    During the quarter, the company reported its highest-ever AUM growth of 34% YoY at Rs 1.1 lakh crore. The gold loan segment witnessed remarkable growth of 34% YoY, compared to Q2FY25 (up 28% YoY), driven by higher gold prices and new customer additions. Commenting on this, George Alexander Muthoot, the Managing Director, said, “There is strong demand for gold loans as credit from other sources, including fintech, unsecured, and microfinance lending, has dried up in recent months". 

    Muthoot Finance witnessed a drop in its microfinance (MFI) lending in Q3. The company’s disbursals were down 47% YoY as it remained cautious, given sector challenges. The MFI sector has been facing pressures due to rising bad loans and slower growth. Muthoot’s GNPA (gross non-performing asset) in the microfinance business rose to 2.9% from 1.9% in Q3FY24. However, conditions are expected to improve over the next few quarters as the company moves its focus to improving its collection efficiency as well as the quality of its loan book.

    Going forward, the management maintains its guidance for gold loan growth at 25% YoY in FY25. For FY26, Muthoot Finance projects a 15% growth and expects to surpass the target. 

    Following the company’s earnings announcement, Nuvama upgraded its rating to ‘Buy’ from ‘Reduce’ and raised the target price to Rs 2,550. The brokerage believes the company is well-positioned for sustained growth. It remains bullish due to Muthoot Finance’s consistent performance, supported by rising gold prices. Trendlyne classifies it as a Turnaround Potential stock.

    3. ITC:

    This cigarettes & tobacco products company touched a 52-week low of Rs 396.2 on 20th February. The decline in its stock price came after reports suggested that the government may increase the GST on tobacco products once the compensation cess is removed. Currently, cigarettes and other tobacco products are subject to a 28% GST, along with cess and other levies, bringing the total indirect tax to 53%.

    The government aims to maintain its tax revenue from tobacco products after the compensation cess ends on March 31, 2026, and is not inclined to replace it with another cess. The GST Council's Group of Ministers (GoM) had previously suggested linking the cess to a product’s maximum retail price instead of its sales value. This proposal was later referred back to the fitment committee and the GoM on rate rationalization.

    On February 8, ITC announced its plan to enter the frozen foods and ready-to-cook business by acquiring a 43.8% stake in both ‘Prasuma’ & ‘Meatigo’ for around Rs 300 crore, reportedly. The deal is expected to be completed in over three years. ITC plans to increase its stake to 62.5% in ‘Prasuma’ by April 2027, with the remaining stake to be potentially acquired by June 2028. Hemant Malik, Wholetime Director of ITC, stated, “The deal will enable ITC to develop a portfolio in the frozen, chilled, and ready-to-cook (RTC) segment of the Rs 10,000 crore market, which holds significant growth potential.”

    The Company announced its Q3FY25 results on February 6th. During the quarter, its net profit declined by 7.5% YoY to Rs 4,934.8 crore due to muted demand in FMCG and hikes in prices of key input materials like edible oil, leaf tobacco and wood. Revenue was up by 8.6% YoY. The company’s revenue beat forecaster estimates by 6.9%, due to growth in the cigarettes and agri segment revenue. It appears on a screener for stocks with high FII stock holdings.

    KR Choksey has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on ITC but lowered its FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates by 6.1% and 7.5%, respectively, due to the hotel business demerger, weak Q3FY25 performance, soft demand, and inflationary pressures. Despite this, the brokerage remains optimistic about ITC’s long-term prospects, thanks to its strong cigarette market share, solid FMCG execution, and rural demand recovery. Following the demerger, the brokerage has adjusted its valuation to 40% of market capitalization with a 20% holding discount, lowering its target price to Rs 494.

    4. ABB India:

    This heavy electrical equipment company has fallen by 2.8% over the past week, despite surpassing the Forecaster estimates for revenue and net profit in its Q4CY24 results. The company's order inflow (OI) declined 14% YoY to Rs 2,700 crore, primarily due to a 30% drop in the motion (motors and drives) segment. This segment benefited from a large data centre order in Q4CY23. However, base orders (with completion timelines of 3-12 months) rose 4%, while the order book stood at Rs 9,400 crore.

    CFO T. Sridhar said, "The market is easing out, which can lead to lower pricing power on new orders.” Sridhar flagged profit margin pressures, “We expect profit margins to settle in the 12-15% range (15.4% in CY24)," he said. 

    Sridhar noted that while order growth was strong earlier, sustaining the same pace may be difficult since the company already has a large number of existing orders. However, he expects private capex to rise after the 2025 budget, with growth driven by sectors like power generation, automotive, food & beverages and data centres.

    ABB India’s EBITDA margin improved to 19.5% (up 440 bps) due to high-margin orders and better capacity utilization. The company appears in a screener of stocks with growing costs YoY from long-term projects.

    ABB’s MD, Sanjeev Sharma, discussed the impact of US tariffs, stating that they could open opportunities for India to expand its role in global trade. While the company has grown its export portfolio, it still accounts for only 10% of its business. The company anticipates exports to contribute positively to India, despite global market fluctuations.

    Post results, ICICI Securities upgraded its rating on ABB India to ‘Hold’ with a target price of Rs 5,302. The brokerage believes the company will benefit from the Centre's capex push in renewables, infrastructure, EVs, and manufacturing. Additionally, its strong distribution network enhances its ability to secure industry orders.

    5. Cipla:

    This pharmaceuticals company has risen 2.1% in the past month in a weak market owing to strong Q3FY25 results, where revenue and net profit grew by 7.5% YoY to Rs 7,294.6 crore and 48.7% YoY to 1,570.5 crore. 

    On Wednesday, the company invested ZAR 900 million (~Rs 424.9 crore) in its subsidiary, Cipla Medpro South Africa Proprietary, for 4.1 crore shares. The company has a strong presence in South Africa and intends to expand its footprint. 

    The drug maker also received final approval from the US FDA for a new drug application (NDA) for Nilotinib Capsules and a Form 483 with two observations from the US FDA following a good manufacturing practices (GMP) inspection at its analytical testing facility in Navi Mumbai. 

    The company’s Q3 revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 1.9% and 30.4%, respectively. Revenue improved due to increased sales in the Indian, South African, and rest of the world (RoW) markets. However, the US market witnessed a downturn due to Lanreotide supply issues due to temporary lower production at a partner facility. 

    The company’s Indian business grew due to improvements in branded prescriptions, chronic, and trade generics. Meanwhile, reducing inventory and finance costs, combined with launching high-margin products, helped its net profit grow. 

    Speaking on its results, Cipla’s MD and CEO, Umang Vohra, said, “Our Emerging Markets & Europe (EMEU) and One Africa businesses together account for more than 25% of total revenue, similar in size to our US business. In 9MFY25, these markets combined have delivered a strong growth of 15% YoY. Our diversification and backlog of our launch pipeline gives us confidence in a resilient business model.”

    Post results, Axis Direct retains its ‘Buy’ call on Cipla. It has a target price of Rs 1,700 per share, indicating a potential upside of 15.2%. The brokerage believes that the company’s India business will continue to grow, driven by diversification and a strong launch pipeline. However, it expects the US business to remain sluggish due to the continued supply issues of Lanreotide. Axis Direct expects the firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 8.3% over FY25-26.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    more
    loading
    Logo Trendlyne

    Stay ahead of the market

    Company

    PrivacyDisclaimerTerms of Use Contact Us

    Resources

    Blog FAQsStock Market Widgets

    Copyright © 2025 Giskard Datatech Pvt Ltd