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20 Mar 2025

Chart of the Week: Best and worst performing indices over the past year

India's equity market has swung between gains and losses over the past year. While there have been moments of optimism, multiple global factors have pulled the market down, making it unpredictable.

In the first half of FY25, the Nifty 50 Index surged by 15.6%, but those gains were wiped out in the latter half due to global economic uncertainties, rising trade tensions, FII selling and weaker domestic spending. This downturn has affected several key indices. According to Reuters, Indian stocks have suffered their longest slump in nearly three decades, erasing almost $1 trillion in market value in the past five months.

At an event, Radhika Gupta, CEO of Edelweiss Mutual Fund, said, “Nifty is like Shah Rukh Khan – he has had some bad patches but has delivered most of the time.”

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at the top four indices with the highest gains and losses over the past year.

Strong momentum driven by Government plans boosts SME growth

The BSE SME IPO Index has gained 58.2% over the past year. The top performers in the index include Mayank Cattle Food, Qualitek Labs, and Gabriel Pet Straps, with returns of 93.1%, 62.3%, and 46.9%, respectively.

The surge in SME IPOs is driven by a combination of government initiatives, such as the Mudra Scheme, tax benefits, and the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) program, which have created a favorable environment for small and medium enterprises. Additionally, rising investor interest and strong performance across various industries have further fueled growth in this segment.

The Nifty Midcap Liquid 15 Index includes the 15 most liquid mid-cap stocks listed on the NSE. Over the past year, the index has gained 15.3%, driven by strong performances from its key constituents. Dixon Technologies surged 90.9%, driven by its expansion in electronics manufacturing and collaborations with global brands. The growing shift towards diversifying manufacturing hubs beyond China further boosted its growth.

Indian Hotels Company gained 38.6%, supported by a strong recovery in domestic tourism and strategic expansion plans, including new hotel developments, contributing to higher earnings.

Defensive indices grow in a bearish market

The BSE Healthcare Index includes companies involved in the pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, and healthcare equipment industries. Over the past year, the index has gained 18.3%. The top gainers in this sector include Blue Jet Healthcare, Wockhardt, and Suven Pharmaceuticals, with gains of 164.3%, 159.4%, and 84.3%, respectively.

The Centre’s PLI scheme drove growth in healthcare by boosting domestic manufacturing and reducing import dependence, particularly for critical active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). In addition, the sector has expanded its contract development & manufacturing organisations (CDMOs), as global pharmaceutical companies diversify supply chains beyond China. Over the past year, theNifty Financial Services index has gained 15.4%. The top performers in this index include Muthoot Finance, Cholamandalam Investment & Finance, and Bajaj Finance, with a gain of 72.9%, 38.6%, and 31.7%, respectively.

The index gained over the past year due to expectations of interest rate cuts, which boosted credit demand and improved liquidity. Rising domestic gold prices and increased collateral value supported strong demand for gold loans, further supporting earnings.

Rising costs lead to a decline in the Nifty Energy and Nifty PSU Bank indices

The Nifty Energy Index has fallen 15.1% over the past year and contributes 10% to the Nifty 50, making it the third-largest contributor. The index includes companies from the oil & gas and utilities sectors. Firms like Adani Green Energy, Adani Total Gas, and Indian Oil Corporation saw the highest declines at 52.7%, 38.6%, and 22.5%, respectively, over the past year.

Oil & gas stocks fell due to higher purchase costs after the Centre reduced cheaper gas supplies. Energy price fluctuations, influenced by global demand, geopolitical tensions, and potential US policy changes, added to the pressure.

Oil and gas firms struggled with losses in the LPG segment as the government kept domestic LPG prices unchanged despite rising raw material costs. The narrowing discount on Russian crude also reduced the price gap between crude oil and refined products, directly impacting the Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) and earnings. The Nifty PSU Bank Index fell by 13.5% over the past year. Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank, and Indian Overseas Bank led the decline, dropping by 24.6%, 24.1%, and 29.9%, respectively, over the same period. Weak quarterly updates drove this decline, as many banks struggled with sluggish deposit growth, leading to concerns about slowing business momentum.

Nifty200 Alpha 30 and Nifty Media plunged due to weak spending and a slower growth rate

The Nifty200 Alpha 30 consists of 30 stocks selected from the Nifty 200, based on ‘Jensen’s Alpha’. Jensen's alpha is used to evaluate the performance of an index or portfolio relative to a benchmark index. The weight of stocks in the index is determined by their alpha scores. The index has declined by 27.4% over the last year. Consumer services hold the highest weightage(16%) among sectoral weights, followed by capital durables (14.5%) and financial services (13.8%). Within the Nifty200 Alpha 30 index, IRFC, Zydus Lifesciences, and Bajaj Auto were among the worst performers, with a fall of 11.8%, 8.1%, and 9.4%, respectively.

The index’s underperformance was mainly due to the weak performance of its heavyweight sectors. Consumer Durables, which hold a significant weight in the index, struggled due to slower-than-expected economic growth in India. A weaker expansion in manufacturing and consumption, along with reduced government spending, pressured discretionary sectors.

The Nifty Media index has declined by 20% over the past year. The beleaguered Zee Entertainment Enterprises (which saw the collapseof its $10 billion merger with Sony, and a $940 million legal dispute with Star India over the termination of a cricket broadcasting deal) holds the highest weight of 25.2% in the index and has fallen by 28.1%. PVR INOX has declined 28.3%, and Network18 Media has dropped 52.5% over the same period.

Media companies have faced margin pressure due to rising operating, production, and marketing costs.

The Baseline

20 Mar 2025

Are FIIs buying China and selling India? | Screener: Momentum stocks with high Forecaster price upsides

By Swapnil Karkare

A few months ago, Mililing was just another unremarkable village in China. After January 20 though, when DeepSeek released its R1 version, the place was suddenly on the map. Liang Wenfeng, the brain behind DeepSeek, turned out to be from this village.

Overnight, Mililing, with a population of just 700, became a tourist hotspot, with 10,000 tourists visiting daily during the spring holidays. Roads were widened, houses were painted, and new trees were planted. No one would have imagined that a young techie could boost tourism like that.

DeepSeek's impact has shown up in other ways. Investors have since flocked to buy Chinese tech companies through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. To buy these shares, investors need Hong Kong dollars. The demand for the dollars rose so much that by February 18, banks ran low on cash. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority had to inject HK$5.5 billion in overnight lending - the biggest intervention in five years.

This rush into China seems to have come at India’s expense. FIIs have sold over Rs. 2 trillion in Indian stocks since October last year. The big question: is this just temporary or a sign of a bigger shift in global investor sentiment?

In this week's Analyticks,

Choices, choices: FIIs take another look at their India and China investments
Screener: Rising momentum stocks with high Forecaster target price upsides

Let's check in on this rivalry.

A twist in the story for Indian markets

India at the start of 2024, was all positive vibes. Corporates expected healthy profits, the IMF projected steady Indian GDP growth at 6.3% for both FY24 and FY25, and investors bet on policy continuity. Goldman Sachs even called India ‘the port of calm’ in a turbulent world.

China however, was struggling. GDP growth would fall from 5% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024. Until mid-September 2024, markets agreed. India was the clear winner: Nifty 50 Index was up by 20%, while China’s SSE 50 Index had fallen by 5%.

But as the summer heat faded and we entered September, the mood changed. Worries about high valuations, and a consumption slowdown in India hit market sentiment. And China unveiled an economic stimulus package. Within ten days, China's SSE 50 Index was up by 29%.

In 2025, DeepSeek’s breakthrough pushed Chinese stocks higher, with foreign investors coming back in.

is the ‘Buy China, Sell India’ trend real?

Market experts have been talking about the ‘Buy China, Sell India’ trend this year — but it’s not new. In just the last 15 quarters, it’s played out four times. One example is June 2022, when FIIs pulled money from emerging markets but found value in beaten-down Chinese stocks, especially as Shanghai reopened after long lockdowns.

But the battle is not necessarily India vs. China. In 8 of the last 15 quarters, investors have either bought both or sold both. Perhaps it's a lack of imagination that drives investors to pit India and China against each other, as if it's always the dragon or the elephant, not both.

Global sentiment and country-specific triggers matter more than simple either/or choices. And Charlie Dutton from Manulife has a contrarian viewpoint. He believes domestic Chinese investors drove this most recent rally, not FIIs. Unfortunately, we cannot verify this as China does not update FII data regularly.

Valuations don’t matter…until they do

Why have FIIs been pulling out of Indian markets in recent weeks? The biggest reason is valuation. India’s stock market capitalisation was around 1.3 times its GDP in 2024 (now down to 1.2x), while it was close to 0.7x in China, making it a more attractive market for many investors.

For value-focused funds, India is a tough fit right now. Take GMO’s value fund, for example. Arjun Divecha, Partner at GMO, said, “We're very underweight in India - close to zero - because of the valuation."

Rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar have also played their part. When safer assets like US bonds and dollars become more attractive, emerging markets like India take a hit.

Is the government stimulus enough for China?

The China stimulus has caught attention, but the results are still unclear. The government cut policy rates by 50 basis points, encouraged property purchases, announced childcare subsidies, increased wages, and subsidised the replacement of old home appliances, automobiles, and electronics with newer, energy-efficient models, among other things.

The focus is enticing people to buy more. But the response has been lukewarm.

Retail sales growth slowed from 7.2% YoY in 2023 to 3.5% YoY in 2024. Demand is so weak that consumer inflation turned negative in February — a clear sign of deflation and fading consumer confidence. To keep things moving, the government has raised its fiscal deficit target to 4% for 2025, up from 3% in 2024. But it's not certain if these measures will revive demand and hit the 5% GDP target.

The wind is on India's back

While domestic measures are underway, China is also under pressure from shifting global trade patterns, especially ‘China+1’. It won’t happen overnight, but the signs are already visible. For instance, the share of Chinese products in US imports has fallen from 22% to 11% in six years, creating opportunities for countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and India, according to investment firm GMO.

China, on the other hand, is setting up factories in other countries to bypass tariffs and remain the world's go-to supplier. At the same time, it doesn’t want to pass the baton to India. Recent reports show that China is also blocking its companies from investing in India, limiting the flow of Chinese workers and equipment to India, and limiting exports of key materials — all to put roadblocks in India's manufacturing growth.

Here, China may be fighting the inevitable. When we look at the long term, India is much better positioned. A young population, a growing domestic market, political stability, and deepening global partnerships work in its favour. In contrast, China faces structural weakness — a shrinking, ageing population, heavy dependence on exports and state-owned enterprises, an opaque, non-democratic system, and growing geopolitical tensions that risk isolating it from the West.

Franklin Templeton’s Brian Freiwald highlights that India’s consistent GDP growth and market returns over the past two decades offer a better broad-based opportunity than China, which still needs careful stock picking. He also pointed out that with global portfolios still underweight on Indian equities, there’s room for significant capital inflows once valuations stabilise. Charlie Dutton from Manulife expects FII interest in India to return in the second half of 2025.

So the long-term story is intact. As Howard Marks said, ‘You don’t want to miss out on India in the next 10 years.”

Screener: Rising momentum stocks with high Forecaster 12-month target price upside

Top Forecaster picks with momentum: High growth potential stocks

With the Indian market seeing a gradual recovery over the past week, we look at stocks with the highest target price upside potential over the next year, which are seeing an uptick in momentum. This screener shows stocks with an MoM improvement in Trendlyne Momentum scores and high Forecaster estimates 12-month upside %.

The screener consists of stocks from the aluminium & aluminium products, commodity chemicals, healthcare facilities, housing finance, and iron & steel products industries. Major stocks that feature in the screener are Lloyds Metals & Energy, Aadhar Housing Finance, Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corp, Coforge, Minda Corp, Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences, Bharti Hexacom, and Hitachi Energy India.

Lloyds Metals & Energy shows up in the screener as Forecaster estimates a 40% target price upside over the next year. This coal & mining stock’s Trendlyne momentum score increased by 5.2 points MoM to 57.9. Analysts at ICICI Securities expect the company’s top line to improve on the back of the expansion of its steel plant, while the acquisition of Thriveni Earthmovers is expected to improve margins. They expect the firm’s revenue and EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 49% and 59% over FY25-27.

Deepak Fertilisers’ Trendlyne momentum score jumped by 17.8 points MoM to 61.1. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects this commodity chemicals company’s stock price to grow by 28.3% over the next year. Analysts at Keynote Capital believe the firm’s expansion of the technical ammonium nitrate (TAN), weak nitric acid (WNA), and concentrated nitric acid (CNA) capacities, to be completed by H2FY26, will help in revenue growth. They expect its revenue to grow at a CAGR of 13% over FY25-26.

You can find some popular screeners here.

The Baseline

18 Mar 2025

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - March 18, 2025

By Ruchir Sankhla

1. State Bank of India:

Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 980, indicating a potential upside of 33%. State Bank of India expects 14-15% YoY loan growth over the next few quarters. The bank sees growth in personal loans picking up, as the recent slowdown was mainly due to stricter credit approval standards. It has a strong corporate loan pipeline of Rs 4.8 lakh crore.

The analysts highlight that the bank's asset quality remains stable, with a net NPA of 0.5% and no major signs of loan stress. They expect credit costs to gradually normalize unless a major economic downturn occurs.

The bank expects net interest margins (NIMs) to remain around 2.9-3% over the next few quarters. The analysts note that the impact of rate cuts on net interest margins should be limited, as only about 28% of the loan book is linked to the repo rate, and the rate cut cycle is expected to be shallow.

2. Tata Consumer Products:

Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this tea & coffee company with a target price of Rs 1,067. This indicates a potential upside of 12.7%. In Q3FY25, the company’s revenue grew 16% YoY, helped by strong growth in the domestic tea segment. However, its net profit remained flat at Rs 285 crore, mainly due to amortization costs of around Rs 60 crore for the acquisitions of Capital Foods and Organic India. Higher interest costs also impacted profitability.

Tata Consumer Products has focused on premium offerings with new launches such as Tata Tea Premium Care, Tetley Instant Green Tea Ready Mix, and Monsoon Malabar Coffee. The analysts are positive about the company’s focus on premiumization and expansion into new channels like food services and pharma. They believe this strategy will support growth and estimate a revenue CAGR of 11% over FY25-27.

3. Tata Communications:

Coming to yet another Tata pick by analysts - ICICI Securities upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this telecommunications company with a target price of Rs 1,840. This indicates an upside potential of 22.2%. The upgrade follows a stock price decline due to short-term revenue weakness, making valuations attractive.

Analysts Sanjesh Jain, Mohit Mishra and Aparajita Chakraborty highlight that Tata Communications faced challenges in FY24, including a cable cut in the Red Sea and slow order book growth. However, with the Red Sea issue resolved and strong double-digit order book growth in FY25, revenue is expected to improve.

The analysts mention that the company is expanding its digital services portfolio, with a focus on cloud and AI-driven solutions. Digital services revenue is expected to grow at a 17% CAGR over FY25-27, driven by new product launches such as AI Studio and GPU-as-a-Service. Large deal executions are expected to accelerate revenue from Q4FY25, with digital services likely to break even at the EBITDA level by FY27. The company also plans a Rs 5,500 crore capital expenditure over FY25-27, for network expansion and fiber replacement.

4. Venus Pipes & Tubes:

Anand Rathi retains a ‘Buy’ rating on this small cap pipes & tubes manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,700, indicating an upside potential of 30.9%. The company expanded its production capacity 4.1X over five years to 38,400 tons, during which its market share grew from 3.6% to 6.2%. It is now increasing its capacity to 46,800 metric tons by adding high-grade stainless steel and titanium-welded tubes, fittings, and seamless pipes.

Analysts Parthiv Jhonsa and Prakhar Khajanchi highlight that Venus Pipes has improved its backward integration by producing 14,400 tons of mother hollow pipes, reducing its reliance on external suppliers. Its Rs 180 crore capex plan includes new seamless pipe and tube lines, fittings, and a 4,800-ton piercing line, funded through warrants, long-term debt, and internal accruals.

Jhonsa and Khajanchi expect revenue, EBITDA, and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 24%, 26%, and 28%, respectively, over FY25-27, driven by expanded capacity, improved backward integration, rising domestic market share, and surging exports, which have grown 36 times since FY20 and now contribute 32.2% of revenue.

5. Supreme Industries:

BOB Capital Markets maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this plastic products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 5,150. This indicates an upside potential of 50.5%. The company signed a memorandum of understanding with Wavin Industries to acquire its Indian piping and fittings business for $30 million (approximately Rs 260 crore) plus net working capital. The acquisition includes exclusive access to Wavin BV’s existing and future technologies for India and SAARC countries for seven years.

Analyst Utkarsh Nopany notes that Wavin, a subsidiary of the Netherlands-based Orbia Group, entered India’s plastic pipe market in 2017 and operates three plants with a total capacity of 73,052 metric tons per annum (TPA). He also mentioned that this acquisition will expand Supreme Industries’ piping capacity from 820,000 TPA in December 2024 to 973,000 TPA by June 2025, improving its presence in North and South India. Nopany expects a CAGR of 16.2% in revenue and 22.5% in net profit over FY25-27.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

15 Mar 2025, 11:10AM

Musk, Adani, and the double-edged sword of politics | Screener: Stocks with high buy calls from analysts

As a writer of a stock market newsletter, I probably wouldn't be allowed to leave the building if I didn't quote Warren Buffett at least once a quarter. Buffett was no stranger to stock market volatility, and often said that 'The stock market is a manic depressive.'

If that is the case, we are definitely in the manic phase right now.

Unless you have been living in a lightless cave with no wifi, you know the reason why. US President Trump has a very large microphone recording and broadcasting everything he says and does. Most of what he is saying and doing is pretty chaotic: deep cuts in government programs, tariffs against friends and enemies alike, and threats of more to come.

As Trump generates fresh headlines everyday, one must ask: do investors want the news to be interesting? I would argue that they do not. Stock markets prefer predictable policy environments, where business estimates are met, growth is steady, and there is peace in our time. When that changes, investors become cautious and sentiment goes negative.

When politics gets noisy, the parties closest to the politicians often see the most collateral damage. Two major entrepreneurs who have aligned themselves closely to their relevant administrations, Gautam Adani and Elon Musk have both built strong ties with their respective administrations. That comes with many benefits. But the spotlight is bright and can give you a headache.

In this week's Analyticks,

Musk and Adani: A handshake between business and politics gets sweaty

Screener: Stocks outperforming their industries in the past month, with a high number of 'Buy' ratings from Forecaster

Let's jump in.

The handshakes get a little sweaty

This share price chart of Adani Enterprises and Tesla is revealing. These two companies are behemoths in their respective stock markets. Both founders are self-made entrepreneurs that did not inherit a family legacy. Both have built close political relationships - the Musk-Trump brofest is more recent, while Adani and Modi go a long way back.

Over five years, Adani Enterprises' share price jumped 1400%, while Tesla's rose 530%. Both have outsize valuations compared to the rest of their respective industries. In recent months however, their share prices have struggled.

Adani has his fingers in many pies, thanks to his close access to Indian government officials. Consider some of the projects he has underway: the new airport in Mumbai. The world's biggest copper smelter in Gujarat. A $4.1 billion housing redevelopment project in Goregaon - announced yesterday. A new solar project in Andhra Pradesh, announced today.

Tesla's founder Elon Musk is aligning himself similarly with Trump, except even more publicly. Via his cost-cutting efforts to "improve government efficiency", he is making up for lost time by quickly inserting himself into government agencies, gaining access to sensitive databases in social security, the treasury, and government contracts. After Tesla's share price fell on Tuesday, in its worst day in 2025, Trump did an impromptu ad for Musk and Tesla on the White House lawn, with the President promoting his purchase of a shiny red Tesla.

Adani has become an important driver of Modi's development agenda, to the point that the Prime Minister faced questions from the US press about the relationship, when he visited Trump in the White House in February.

Political proximity brings you powerful friends - and enemies

Musk has already got plenty of largesse from the US government over the years. He and his businesses have received at least $38 billion in government contracts, loans, subsidies and tax credits, going back at least 20 years.

Musk's strong, personal connection with Trump is new, but may already be seeing some upside. Musk, like Adani, is already benefiting from increased access to international markets, via Trump. Both Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio today announced a team up with Musk's Starlink, which will bring the Starlink network to India, a market that till now, Musk found difficult to penetrate.

However, Musk won - and then lost - a $400 million armored vehicle contract from the US state department, a contract which was cancelled after media reports.And Musk's visibility in Trump's administration, and his public political statements, have not been good for Tesla. Tesla's sales collapsed across Europe last quarter after Musk expressed his support for extreme right wing political parties like Germany's AFD. In the US, Tesla showrooms have been attacked, and cars vandalized. The company's share price has seen a downward spiral in 2025.

Adani has benefited greatly over the years from his proximity to Modi. He has won deals from various governments in the Middle East, Africa, Australia, Nepal, Sri Lanka. But controversies have begun to haunt the magnate, especially after the US Justice department opened an investigation against him on bribery allegations.

Some deals however, are now wobbling. Kenya has cancelled its energy and airport expansion deals with Adani with after news of the US investigation, while French investor TotalEnergies has paused new investments.

Bangladesh wants to change the 25 year power deal with Adani, saying that it involves inflated prices. Sri Lanka is reviewing the wind projects. Adani Enterprises' share price as a result, has not recovered since the US Justice department opened its investigation.

On opposite sides of US India trade policy

Musk and Adani may have much in common, but they may find themselves on opposite sides in upcoming trade and tariff negotiations between US and India. One of Trump's demands has been that the Indian economy open up to US businesses. India for example, currently imposes import duties of up to 110% on US vehicle imports - which Musk has openly criticized. The US government is demanding India cut these duties to zero, which would be a big boost for Tesla.

Most of these duties and tariffs currently in place benefit India's family conglomerates, like Tata and Mahindra in the auto sector, Reliance in retail, Adani in infrastructure, and so on. Sharp tariff cuts would mean that these Indian businessmen would be forced to compete with some of the most powerful US corporations. It remains to be seen if Musk and Adani will leave their fingerprints on US-India policy - and if their influence has its limits.

Screener: Stocks outperforming their industries in the past month, with a high number of 'Buy' ratings from Forecaster

Finance and consumer electronics have the most buy calls by Forecaster

The Indian market is now more attractively valued, with the Nifty 50 sliding 9.2% over the past quarter, pushing its P/E ratio to 20, below its 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year averages. For investors eyeing opportunities, this dip could present an entry point. This screener has a helpful shortlist, showing rising stocks that have outperformed their industries in the last month, with 'Buy' ratings from Trendlyne's Forecaster.

The screener is dominated by stocks from the banking, finance, consumer electronics, iron & steel products, and realty industries. The most notable stocks present in the screener are Shriram Finance, Cholamandalam Finance, Voltas, Tata Steel, Blue Star, SBI Cards & Payment Services, Chalet Hotels, and Jindal Steel & Power.

Shriram Finance shows up in the screener after rising 18.9% over the past month. This finance stock has nine ‘Buy’ recommendations from institutional analysts according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. Analysts remain optimistic about the company, citing its strategy to reduce cyclicality by diversifying beyond commercial vehicles (CVs) and driving strong growth in non-CV segments.Portfolio diversification could also help growth in assets under management (AUM).

Jindal Steel & Power also features in the screener after rising 7.9% over the past month. Trendlyne’s Forecaster shows four ‘Buy’ calls on this iron & steel products company. Analysts expect the ongoing Angul expansion to boost the company's crude steel capacity by 65% to 15.9 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) and finished steel capacity by 90% to 13.8 MTPA once completed. The firm’s revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% over FY25-26.

You can find some popular screeners here.

The Baseline

13 Mar 2025

Five Interesting Stocks Today - March 13, 2025

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Bharti Hexacom:

Thistelecom services company surged 8.5% on March 11 after Motilal Oswalinitiated a ‘Buy’ call with a target price of Rs 1,625, citing its long-term growth potential and market leadership in key regions.

Bharti Hexacom, a wholly owned subsidiary ofBharti Airtel, provides mobile and broadband services in Rajasthan and the Northeast under the Airtel brand. The company reported a 22.7% rise in net profit to Rs 260.9 crore forQ3FY24, driven by average revenue per user (ARPU) and subscriber growth. Revenue grew 23.2% YoY to Rs 2,295.7 crore. ARPUimproved to Rs 204 from Rs 189, supported by premiumization, higher data usage, and increased postpaid adoption.

The company has a competitive edgeover Bharti Airtel due to its presence in under-penetrated circles. These regions have a mobile connection rate below 70%, compared to the national average of about 85%. Hexacom holds around 38% of total mobile users in these areas, higher than Airtel’s 33% across India.

Bharti Hexacom is alsoexpanding its home broadband services, adding 44,000 new broadband customers in Q3FY25, taking the total customer base to 40 lakh, supported by the expansion of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and fiber broadband to 110 cities.

Bharti Hexacom plans to transfer 3,400 telecom towers to Indus Towers, and Bharti Airtel will transfer around 12,700. Gopal Vittal, Managing Director of Bharti Airtel,said, “ Our belief is that this business is best managed by Indus, since they know how to do this better than us.”

While EBITDA margins may decline due to rental payments (to Indus Towers for using the towers), the cash inflow from the deal could be used for spectrum dues repayment, expanding fiber and FWA networks.

Despite its strengths, Hexacom facesrisks from intense competition in the sector, limiting tariff hikes and profitability. Its operations are restricted to Rajasthan and North East, making it vulnerable to regional disruptions. Additionally, its reliance on Bharti Airtel for branding and infrastructure means any change in this relationship could impact operations.

2. Castrol India:

This lubricant manufacturer surged over 10% on March 6 after reports that Saudi Aramco is considering acquiring promoter BP’s 51% stake in the company. According to Bloomberg, Aramco is exploring a bid for part or all of BP’s lubricant business, which operates under the Castrol brand.

In Q4, Castrol reported revenue growth of 7% YoY with net profit up 12% YoY. While revenue aligned with estimates, net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 2.7%. This beat was driven by an EBITDA margin surge of 180 bps on a YoY basis, thanks to stable crude prices.

Lubricant volume grew 7% YoY, outperforming the market due to strong demand for its ‘Essential’ range and expansion into rural areas. CFO and Whole Time Director Deepesh Baxi expects Castrol to continue outpacing market growth, which is projected at 4% to 5%, while maintaining an EBITDA margin of 22-25%.

Currently, most of Castrol’s volume comes from commercial vehicles, the industrial segment and personal mobility, which includes cars and bikes. However, as electric vehicle adoption rises in India, the company plans to diversify beyond automobiles. Managing Director Kedar Lele highlights Castrol’s plan to make “coolants and transmission liquids and fluids for data centers,” along with a stronger focus on the commercial segment.

Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Castrol as it expects volume growth and market share expansion driven by a broader distribution network and new product launches. Target price of Rs 260 indicates a potential upside of over 12%.

3. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries:

This pharmaceutical company gained over 6% over the past week. On March 10th, the company entered into an agreement to acquire Checkpoint Therapeutics, a US-based oncology focused, biotech firm, for $355 million (Rs 3,097.9 crore). ICICI Securities noted that Checkpoint's leading anti-PD-L1 drug, Unloxcyt (cosibelimab), has been approved by the USFDA for treating adults with metastatic or locally advanced skin cancer. The brokerage believes Unloxcyt will complement Sun Pharma's existing product portfolio.

The company announced its Q3FY25 results on January 31. In the quarter, its net profit grew 15.4% YoY to Rs 2,912.9 crore, helped by lower raw material costs. Revenue increased by 11.9%. The company’s net profit beat forecaster estimates by 0.5% and its revenue beat estimates by 2.1%, due to growth in its India formulation sales. It appears on the screener of companies having low debt.

The company’s management notes that for Japan they have shifted focus on growing the specialty business because the generic business has become very challenging. Kirti Ganorkar, CEO (India Business), Sun Pharma, said, “ In the Japanese generics market we have experienced a price decrease ranging from 5-7%, based on the product. So we are shifting focus to grow ILUMYA (a speciality drug used to treat moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis) business.”

Dilip Shanghvi, Chairman and MD of Sun Pharma, said, “Due to delays in clinical expenditures, our R&D spending is running below our guidance for the year. We now anticipate that the FY25 R&D spend will be under 7% of our sales.”

ICICI Securities has upgraded Sun Pharma to a ‘Buy’ rating, citing the company’s ongoing aggressive acquisition strategy to enhance its specialty portfolio. In March 2023, Sun Pharma acquired Concert Pharma, gaining access to the deuruxolitinib (Leqselvi) drug. The brokerage expects Sun's specialty portfolio to see significant growth in FY27-28 with the launches of Leqselvi and Unloxcyt. The target price of Rs 1,895 indicates an upside of over 12%.

4. Godrej Agrovet:

This agricultural products company has gained over 50% from its 52-week low of Rs 476. On March 12, Godrej Agrovet’s board approved the acquisition of an additional 48.1% stake in Creamline Dairy Products (CDPL) for a cash consideration of Rs 930 crore.

Creamline Dairy sells dairy products such as milk, curd, butter and cheese in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra under the 'Jersey' brand. Godrej Agrovet already owns a 51.9% stake in CDPL, and this acquisition will make it a wholly owned subsidiary.

This deal is expected to strengthen Godrej Agrovet’s presence in the dairy sector, expanding its value-added dairy portfolio through Creamline Dairy’s distribution network and product range.

Over the past month, Godrej Agrovet’s share price has risen by 1.8%, outperforming its industry by 9.7%. Godrej Agrovet’s net profit increased 21.4% YoY to Rs 111.5 crore in Q3FY25. Its revenue grew 4.5% YoY to Rs 2,449.6 crore during the quarter, led by improvements in the vegetable oil, dairy, and animal feed segments. EBITDA margins stood at 9.3%. The company has recently been focusing on value-added products to maintain stable margins. It projects EBITDA margins between 9-10% for FY26.

Meanwhile, during Q3, the vegetable oils segment saw a 38% YoY growth led by higher realizations in raw palm oil and palm kernel oil. The animal feed business grew by 1% YoY.

Speaking on the company’s performance, Balram Singh Yadav, the MD said, “Q4 is traditionally strong for us as rising temperatures boost the consumption of high-margin products like curd, buttermilk, lassi, and flavored milk. We expect Q4 to outperform Q3 in terms of overall performance."

Motilal Oswal reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Godrej Agrovet and set a target price of Rs 940. The brokerage sees margin expansion across businesses, driven by strategic initiatives, and expects strong performance in the animal feed and palm oil segments to continue.

5. Tata Power Company:

This electric utility firm’s subsidiary, Tata Power Renewable Energy, entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to develop up to 7,000 MW of renewable energy projects in Andhra Pradesh. This project includes solar, wind, and hybrid initiatives and requires an estimated investment of Rs 49,000 crore.

On February 25, the company signed a similar agreement with the Assam Government to support 5,000 MW of renewable energy projects, with an investment of Rs 30,000 crore over the next five years. Additionally, on February 28, Tata Power secured a Rs 632 crore contract from the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI). The contract involves supplying 293 Megawatt-peak (MWp) Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) solar modules in Ramagiri, Andhra Pradesh.

In Q3, the company’s net profit rose 8.2% YoY to Rs 1,031 crore, driven by higher realizations in the transmission and distribution (T&D) business and improved capacity utilization at the Mundra thermal power plant. Revenue grew 5% YoY during the quarter. The company has incurred a capex of Rs 12,000 crore in 9MFY25 and plans to invest an additional Rs 10,000 crore in Q4, bringing the total capex for FY25 to around Rs 22,000 crore.

Praveer Sinha, MD & CEO, mentioned that this summer is expected to be more intense than last year, leading to higher power demand. Commenting on this, he said, "Peak demand could reach 265-270 GW. In February, it already crossed 230 GW, and summer hasn't even started". Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates profit to increase 53.4% YoY in Q4FY25, with revenue growth of 23.7% YoY.

The company is interested in power distribution opportunities in Uttar Pradesh (UP), where two distribution companies (DISCOMs) are set for privatization. Sinha stated that the company is actively pursuing this opportunity. He believes Tata Power’s experience in turning around Odisha DISCOMs, which saw a 37% YoY increase in net profit, can be an advantage.

Sharekhan has a ‘Buy’ rating on the company, and expects that Tata Power’s focus on renewables and transmission will drive growth. However, slower expansion in these segments and lower-than-expected profitability in the Solar EPC business pose risks. They expect renewables to contribute 50% of net profit by FY30, up from 21% currently.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

12 Mar 2025

Chart of the Week: High valuations compared to Asian markets lead to a sell-off in India

By Abdullah Shah

Trade tensions sparked by President Trump’s tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada have spooked investors worldwide. Trump’s unpredictable policy shifts and escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine have shaken investor confidence.

While several indices are in a correction phase—trading more than 10% below their 52-week highs (India’s Nifty 50, Japan’s Nikkei 225, the US’ Nasdaq 100, and Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted indices) —some continue to hover near record levels (France’s CAC 40, the UK’s FTSE 100, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng).

Speaking at the CERAWeek conference in Houston, Peter Orszag, CEO of Lazard stated, "The amount of uncertainty that has been created by the tariff wars with regard to Canada, Mexico and Europe, is causing boards and C-suites to reconsider the pathway forward."

In this chart of the week, we look at the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the largest markets, which offers insights into market valuations at prevailing uncertain times. A higher P/E ratio suggests that investors are willing to pay more for each unit of net income, as they anticipate future growth. Conversely, a lower P/E ratio may indicate undervaluation or potential challenges within the market or specific sectors.

As of March 2025, PE ratios across various markets have shifted due to economic recovery, geopolitical developments, and sectoral performances.

Taiwan and India have the highest PE among Asian countries

Among Asia’s prominent markets, India’s Nifty 50 stands out with a relatively high P/E ratio of 20 as of March 11—despite a 9.2% decline over the past quarter. This elevated valuation comes from the index’s 115% surge over the past five years, fueled by strong growth expectations.

A key driver of this rally was China’s extended COVID-19 lockdown and growing tensions in the US-China relationship, which redirected investor interest toward India’s economy. With a GDP growth of 9.7% in 2021, India emerged as a high-growth alternative to China.

However, the benchmark index has fallen 10.3% over the past six months, and its PE has fallen below its 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year averages.

Relentless FII selling and weaker-than-expected earnings for consecutive quarters (Q2 and Q3 FY25) triggered the sell-off after the Nifty 50 hit its all-time high on September 27. Since October 2024, FIIs have divested stakes worth Rs 2.4 lakh crore from the equity market.

Sunil Tirumalai, Executive Director of GEM Equity Strategist, said that news about China's stimulus and slowing Indian macro and earnings momentum are factors in FII selling. The sell-off was also due to the weak rupee against the US dollar, which plunged to Rs 88 per dollar on February 10.

In addition, the Indian government raised the taxes on long-term capital gains to 12.5% in its FY25 Budget, further prompting an FII exodus.

Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted index also has a higher PE of 21.8 as of March 11. Taiwan’s stock market is heavily weighted toward the semiconductor and electronics industries. High demand and profitability in these industries lead to increased PE. However, the index has declined 4.5% over the past month due to fears of 25% import tariffs on semiconductors in the US.

Other major Asian indices have lower PEs, including China’s Shanghai Composite, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, and Japan’s Nikkei 225, at 14.2, 14.4, and 13.7. This valuation reflects a moderate market sentiment toward Chinese equities, helping the Shanghai Composite Index rise 3.2% over the past month.

Nikkei 225’s PE plunged 5.6 points in September 2024 after the index declined 4.8% in Q2FY25 after news emerged that Shigeru Ishiba was elected as the country's Prime Minister. Shigeru Ishiba indicated increasing interest rates if elected, leading to the index decline.

European markets trade near their 52-week highs

The S&P 500 index has a high PE ratio of 25.6. However, the US market has been volatile since the start of 2025. After President Trump took office, the S&P 500 touched its 52-week high of 6,147.4 on February 19. Since then, the S&P 500 has fallen 8.4% due to the import tariffs imposed by President Trump on products from China, Canada, and Mexico. Later, President Trump levied taxes on the import of steel and aluminium. This came as part of Trump’s plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries. As a result, the S&P 500 plunged by 7.2%, causing a decline in its PE.

By contrast, the UK’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX, and France’s CAC 40 have a relatively lower PE of 17.9, 20.1 and 21, respectively. However, these indices are trading near their all-time highs. Over the past year, the FTSE 100’s PE has risen by 8.1 points, drawing investors due to the interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank in 2024, with four more cuts expected by July 2025. The European market has strong dividend yields, with total payouts expected to reach £83.9 billion in 2025. This translates to a yield of around 4%, making UK stocks attractive in a high-interest-rate environment.

European stocks have also been outperforming the S&P 500 over the past quarter. Germany's DAX is up 11.8%, France's CAC 40 has risen 7.8%, and the UK's FTSE 100 has increased by 2.8%, compared to the S&P 500's 7.2% decline. DAX rose after Germany’s new Chancellor proposed excluding defence spending from its debt brake of 0.35%, freeing up money for other expenditures. The German Government has also proposed a Euro 500 billion fund for infrastructure spending over the next 10 years.

Despite threats of tariffs from US President Donald Trump, European markets, including the UK and German indices, have reached record highs. Investor sentiment, monetary policy divergence from the US, and a weaker euro benefiting European exporters have contributed to this resilience.

The Baseline

07 Mar 2025

Five Interesting Stocks Today - March 07, 2025

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Rail Vikas Nigam:

This railwayconstruction firm has risen around 4.7% in the last three days after itreceived a letter of acceptance (LoA) from the Himachal Pradesh State Electricity Board (HPSEBL) worth Rs 729.8 crore. The contract involves the development of distribution infrastructure in Himachal Pradesh’s Central Zone.

RVNL manages the complete life cycle of projects in railway track construction, railway electrification, and signalling solutions. Over the past week, the company received an LoA worth Rs 135.7 crore from Central Railway and also emerged as the lowest bidder for a Rs 156.4 crore South Western Railway project.

During Q3FY25, RVNL’s net profit declined 13.1% YoY to Rs 311.4 crore due to higher operating expenses and finance costs. Revenue decreased 2.6% YoY to Rs 4,567.4 crore during the quarter and missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 6.3%. Analysts highlighted that the company’s performance during the quarter was impacted by weak execution and a slowdown in government capex.

The company’s order book stood at Rs 97,000 crore as of Q3FY25, with competitive bid projects now making up 45% of its pipeline. RVNL plans to bid for more Metro and BOT (Build, Operate, Transfer) projects from NHAI (National Highways Authority of India).

Commenting on the order pipeline, Pradeep Gaurji, the Chairman and Managing Director, said, “We have signed MoUs (Memorandums of Understanding) with Peru and Turkey for railway projects and are also exploring solar ventures. We aim to bid for Rs 80,000 crore in orders and await results for Rs 10,000-12,000 crore worth of bids.”

For FY25, RVNL expects revenue to remain flat at Rs 22,000 crore and aims to sustain this level in FY26. By FY27, revenue is projected to rise to Rs 27,000-28,000 crore. The company expects EBITDA margins of 5.5-6%, with further improvements.

Despite the muted outlook, Axis Securities gives the company a ‘Buy’ rating and sets a target price of Rs 501. The brokerage believes that RVNL's robust order book will drive revenue growth. It also expects a pick-up in execution in the near term and projects margins at around 6% in FY25-26.

2. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise:

Thishospital company rose 1.7% over three trading sessions following its March 4announcement of a partnership with Belgium-based Ion Beam Applications (IBA) to introduce the Proteus One Proton Beam Therapy system in India.

The India proton therapy market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10% from FY25 to FY32, increasing from $21.3 million in FY24 to $45.6 million by FY32. This therapy is used for specific cancer types, including brain, head, and neck tumors, pediatric cases, and complex cancers.

Following the partnership, Apollo Hospitalsplans to invest Rs 250 crore in the project to expand its existing proton therapy capacity in Chennai. The new system is expected to be operational by FY28 and will increase treatment capacity by 350 patients annually, bringing the total to 850.

The company also plans toadd 3,512 beds between FY26 and FY30, with a total capex of Rs 6,100 crore. Krishnan Akhileswaran, Group Chief Financial Officer,said, “Starting in the second half of next year, we will open hospitals in Pune and Kolkata and a dedicated cancer hospital in Delhi. These facilities will become operational in H2.” The expansion includes commissioning 1,737 beds in FY26 and FY27 and another 1,775 beds beyond FY28.

InQ3FY25, the company reported a net profit increase of 51.8% YoY to Rs 372.3 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 7.5%. Revenue grew 14.6% YoY to Rs 5,590.7 crore, supported by an 8% YoY increase in inpatient discharges and an 8% YoY growth in average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB).

The Healthcare Services (Hospital)segment, accounting for 50.4% of total revenue, saw a 13% rise in revenue to Rs 2,785 crore. This was driven by higher revenue from complex procedures in key specialties like Cardiac Sciences, Oncology, and Neurosciences. Apollo HealthCo (Pharmacy Distribution & Digital Health) segment, contributing 42.6% of total revenue, grew 15%, supported by higher online medicine orders. Meanwhile, the AHLL (Diagnostics & Retail Health) segment, with a 7% revenue share, also grew 15%, driven by higher patient footfall in specialty care.

Prabhudas Lilladhar maintained its ‘Buy’ rating, citing steady hospital revenue growth, expansion plans, and strong Q3 performance. The brokerage noted that Apollo’s digital platform, 24x7, is on track to break even by H2FY26, supporting a target price of Rs 8,100.

3. NCC:

This Hyderabad-based construction company has surged 3.4% over the past week after announcing an order win worth Rs 219 crore. This order from an unspecified state government is for the transport division. The firm shows up in a screener of stocks where mutual funds have increased their shareholding in the past two quarters.

In Q4, the firm reported revenue growth of 2% YoY, while net profit declined 12% YoY during the same period. Flat revenue growth and a decline in profits were due to a slowdown in project execution and delayed receivables, mainly due to the Maharashtra elections. The company expects these metrics to improve in Q4 as the situation normalises.

The firm gets around 75% of its revenue from segments such as building construction, transmission & distribution, and transportation. The remaining 25% comes from other segments like water and railways, irrigation, and mining. As of Q3, NCC’s order book stood at Rs 55,548 crore across various segments, providing revenue visibility for the next 2-3 years.

NCC has emerged as the lowest bidder in projects worth over Rs 10,000 crore and expects to receive orders in the current or upcoming quarter. Neerad Sharma, Head of Strategy and Investor Relations, said, “We see a healthy order pipeline in the future as we have bid for projects worth more than Rs 2.4 lakh crore (across segments and states).”

Axis Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the company, anticipating revenue and net profit CAGRs of 11% and 27%, respectively, over FY25-27. The stock is in the PE Buy Zone, trading below its historical PE after declining approximately 50% from its all-time high. With a target price of Rs 213, NCC has a potential upside of 15%.

4. Solar Industries India:

This explosives manufacturer has risen by 8.8% over the past week after securing two major orders. On March 4, its wholly-owned subsidiary, Solar Defence and Aerospace, won a Rs 239 crore contract from the Ministry of Defence to supply multi-mode hand grenades. On February 28, the company also secured Rs 2,150 crore in export orders for defence products.

Solar Industries secured its biggest-ever order worth Rs 6,084 crore on February 6, with the Ministry of Defence awarding contracts to its arm, Solar Defence, for ‘Pinaka’ (a rocket launching system). The company's current defence order book stands at Rs 11,000 crore, with over Rs 4,400 crore in export orders set for execution over the next 3-4 years.

The company also signed an agreement with the Maharashtra government to set up a Defence & Aerospace project in Nagpur. The proposed project involves an investment of Rs 12,700 crore. ICICI Securities estimates Solar Industries' capex at Rs 13,000-15,000 crore over the next five years.

Solar Industries released its Q3FY25 results on February 5. Its net profit rose 55% YoY to Rs 315 crore, while revenue grew 37.7%. However, the stock fell 5.6% that day after MD & CEO Manish Nuwal said the company wouldn’t achieve its 30% revenue growth target for FY25. He said, “Due to a slowdown in the domestic market, volume growth has declined and is impacting revenue. However, we can see the market is much better since January.”

Nuwal also noted that the company is seeing strong performance across all segments, including defence, beyond the domestic market. He said, “The defence revenue guidance of Rs 1,500 crore for FY25 is sustainable. There may be a 5-10% variation, but we are confident of reaching the target.”

ICICI Securities retains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 13,720. Based on the current order book, the brokerage believes the company's defence revenue could grow four times from FY25 levels in the next five years. With this, the EBITDA margin is expected to reach 27.9% by FY27, up from 26.7% in Q3FY25.

5. HPCL:

This refineries & petro-products company gained over 8% over the past week. On March 5, the company rose by over 6% as OPEC+ decided to gradually roll back the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut, which has been in place since November 2023. The rollback will begin in April 2025 and continue through September- December 2026. As a result, Brent crude oil price hit the $70 per barrel mark, its lowest level since 2021.

Morgan Stanley revised its Brent crude oil price forecasts for the restof the year, expecting the benchmark to trade in the $60-70 range in the second half. It highlighted that lower crude oil prices benefit refiners like HPCL, as reduced input costs enhance profitability and margins.

Reportedly, India's state-run refiners are close to completing the world's longest liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) pipeline, set to begin operations by June and improve supply chain efficiency. The $1.3 billion (approx. Rs 10,700 crore) project was developed by IHB—a joint venture between Indian Oil, BPCL, and HPCL. The 2,800km pipeline will run from Kandla in the west to Gorakhpur in the north. HPCL would benefit from the increased demand and smoother logistics, potentially leading to higher sales volumes.

The company announced its Q3FY25 results on January 23, 2025. During the quarter, its net profit soared 256.8% YoY to Rs 2,543.7 crore, driven by reduced stock-in-trade purchases and improved inventory management. The company’s revenue beat forecaster estimates by 17.9% due to higher revenue growth in the refining segment. It appears on the screener for stocks showing strong annual EPS growth.

Rajneesh Narang, Chairman & Managing Director of HPCL, said, “Our consolidated EBITDA target is to reach over Rs 40,000 crore by FY28, driven by the expanded Vizag and Barmer refineries and maturing JV projects. We expect capex of Rs 14,000-15,000 crore over the next 3-4 years, with stable debt and improving debt-to-equity. HPCL is seeing 5-6% marketing volume growth, outpacing PSU OMCs, and rising crude throughput.”

Emkay has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on HPCL but cut its FY26 EPS estimates by 7-10% due to lower Gross Refining Margins (GRMs). The brokerage highlights HPCL’s 8.5% growth in domestic marketing volumes, outperforming the industry growth of 4.5%. However, it warns that adverse commodity prices and downstream margins could affect the company.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

06 Mar 2025

Chart of the Week: How has the net worth of Indian superstar investors changed over the past decade?

By Abdullah Shah

India’s superstar investors are famous for their stock picks and track records over the past decade. So they draw plenty of imitators – an Ashish Kacholia buy, for instance, can significantly move the stock price the next day. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at superstar investors’ public portfolio holdings from December 2015 to March 2025 and analyse their preferred sectors and investing strategies.

Trendlyne's superstar dashboard shows that superstar investors have bet on retailing, software & services, textiles, apparels & accessories, diversified consumer services, and banking & finance.

Prominent investors like the late Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (whose portfolio is now managed by RARE Enterprises), Vijay Kedia and Radhakishan Damani saw significant changes in their net worth from June 2018 to March 2025. Most superstars and promoters have seen their net worth fall in the Covid lockdown, and more recently, as the Nifty 50 declined by 14.4% over the past six months.

Promoters Ambani, Damani and Premji beat career investors, and boast the highest net worth

Reliance Industries and Jio Financial Services’ promoter, Mukesh Ambani, has the highest net worth of Rs 3.2 lakh crore as of March 2025 (this includes the family’s holdings. His net worth surged to Rs 76,790.2 crore in Q4FY17 after Reliance Industries became the first Indian firm to cross the Rs 6 lakh crore mark in market capitalization during the quarter.

Ambani’s portfolio consists of only the above two stocks. His net worth jumped by another 115.4% to Rs 2.8 lakh crore after a significant investment in his digital arm, Jio Platforms. He sold a 33% stake to investors like Google and Facebook, which boosted the value of his holdings in 2020.

Radhakishan Damani, the promoter of retail chain DMart, dropped to the sixth richest Indian from the third spot in 2024, according to Forbes’ 100 richest Indians in 2024. This came after his net worth eroded by 28.9% in Q3FY25 after DMart’s stock price plunged 30.1% in the quarter. The superstar holds the third largest public stock portfolio among superstar investors. As of March 2025, this superstar investor’s net worth stood at Rs 1.6 lakh crore.

In Q3FY16, he ranked 3rd in net worth, but after DMart went public in Q4FY17, his net worth soared to Rs 35,827 crore. During the COVID-19 pandemic in Q4FY20, Damani rose to second in public portfolio net worth, surpassing Premji and Associates and coming behind Mukesh Ambani.

Damani is primarily a passive investor who has exited just three positions over the past two years: Astra Microwave, India Cements, and Andhra Paper. Additionally, he has reduced his holdings in three companies from Q3FY23 to March 2025: Blue Dart Express in Q1FY25, Avenue Supermarts in Q1FY24, and VST Industries in Q2FY25.

Another promoter who ranks near the top of the list is Premji and Associates, with a net worth of Rs 2.1 lakh crore as of March 2025. His portfolio consists of only one stock after selling stakes in Balrampur Chini Mills and Tube Investments of India. This means this superstar investor’s public portfolio value entirely depends on Wipro’s share price. Premji and Associates holds a 72.7% stake in Wipro as of March 2025. Damani overtook Premji in 2019 due to the muted growth of the Indian IT sector, during which Wipro lost 10% of its share value.

Superstar investors go on a selling spree in 2024

The late Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, also known as the Big Bull, has a portfolio of 29 stocks, currently managed by Rare Enterprises. His portfolio value jumped 15.6% to Rs 56,915.4 crore in Q3FY25. Preferred sectors include diversified consumer services (30%), textiles, apparels & accessories (24.7%), and banking & finance (13.9%).

Despite an investment slowdown, Rare added a 24.1% stake in Concord Biotech, a 3.7% stake in Baazar Style Retail and a 49.3% stake in Inventurus Knowledge Solutions since September 2023.

Rare Enterprises also increased its stake in Geojit Financial Services by 0.2% while reducing stakes in Jhunjhunwala’s top picks, Titan, Jubilant Pharmova, Crisil, Nazara Technologies and Aptech since the start of 2024. Rare reduced stakes across banks like Canara Bank, Federal Bank, and Karur Vysya Bank in the past year.

Mukul Agarwal’s net worth rose 21.3% over the past year to Rs 6,062.61 crore, helping the portfolio to jump to the second spot behind Rakesh Jhunjhunwala among the superstar investors. Like Jhunjhunwala, Agarwal prefers stocks from the banking & finance (19%), pharmaceuticals & biotechnology (17.8%), and textiles, apparels & accessories (12%) sectors. His portfolio is one of the most diversified among the superstars, with 64 stocks currently active.

Mukul Agarwal has been an active investor since Q3FY23, when he added 30 stocks to his portfolio. The most notable additions are BSE in Q1FY24, Deepak Fertilizers in Q2FY25, Strides Pharma in Q3FY24, and KRN Heat Exchanger & Refrigeration in Q3FY25. Over the past two years, he has exited his positions from 29 stocks, including Paras Defence, Suzlon Energy, Newgen Software, Delta Corp, Karur Vysya Bank, and Raymond.

Akash Bhansali has a significant investment in the chemicals & petrochemicals (41.6%) sector. He also prefers pharmaceuticals & biotechnology (11.3%) and general industrials (11%) stocks. Bhansali added eight new stocks to his portfolio, including Dilip Buildcon, Genus Power and Natco Pharma, among others, since Q3FY23. He holds substantial stakes in Sudarshan Chemicals (7.9%) and Gujarat Fluorochemicals (4.8%), which serve as the main drivers of his portfolio. He also exited positions in six stocks, like Arvind Fashions, Granules India and Titagarh Rail Systems.

Ashish Kacholia prefers general industrials (22.7%), pharmaceuticals & biotechnology (16%) and diversified consumer services (14%). His portfolio has a majority of small-cap stocks. In December 2024, he added stocks like Texel Industries (7.9%) and Aelea Commodities (3.8%). Kacholia actively manages his investments, regularly adding new stocks, increasing stakes, and exiting positions. In the past year, he entered or exited 33 positions as the smallcap universe grew volatile, including popular ones such as Man Industries, Awfis Space Solutions, and Gravita India.

Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund holds 23 stocks, with a focus on metals & mining (17.4%), general industrials (15.4%) and cement & construction (10.2%). During Q4FY25, Singhania’s portfolio fell by 21.5% due to the downturn in metals stocks. He added a 6.8% stake in Himatsingka Seide and increased his stake in Hindware Home Innovation by 0.1% to 4.6% in Q3FY25. He has reduced his stakes in HIL, IIFL Securities, and Sarda Energy & Minerals.

Vijay Kedia focuses mainly on the automobiles and auto components sector (23.1%). In comparison, Nemish Shah’s portfolio is dominated by the general industrial sector (59.3%), and Ashish Dhawan favours the banking and finance sector (44.3%). Vijay Kedia’s net worth has fallen 31.1% in the ongoing Q4FY25 after his portfolio stock, Om Infrastructure, posted weak results in Q3FY25. During Q3FY25, Kedia increased his stakes in Precision Camshafts and Global Vectra while reducing his holdings in Elecon Engineering and Tejas Networks.

The Baseline

06 Mar 2025

Fast growing companies in a muted market | Screener: Stocks with strong PEG and revenue growth

“When men are brought together,” the French mathematician Henri Poincaré wrote, “they no longer decide independently of each other, but react to one another. ”

This behaviour is so common that there are many words for it. Herd mentality. Hive mind. Groupthink. As a result, bull markets last longer than valuations can justify. And downcycles, like the current one, can also be long and painful. The same stocks that were so attractive to investors months ago with expensive valuations, investors don't want to touch when they are cheaper.

But in addition to macro factors impacting stock markets, investors hate uncertainty. With US President Trump hitting allies like Canada and Mexico with hard-to-justify tariffs, and promising more tariffs to come for EU, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, and yes, India, stock markets globally have become volatile.

Trump also seems to be a man of many moods. He will announce tariffs one day, and his advisers will hint the next morning that these tariffs may be removed. Maybe he just likes watching markets switch from green to red and back again.

But as India's macro numbers recover, the recent downcycle in stocks may offer some interesting opportunities for investors looking for bargain buys, and willing to ignore the herd.

In this week's Analyticks,

Fast growing players: Companies showing resilience in a weak market

Screener: Stocks with a strong PEG ratio and good growth in Q3 revenue and net profit

Let's hunt for some diamonds.

In an uncertain environment, investment options narrow

Some economists believe that uncertainty is the world's new reality. "The past seven-plus decades of free trade..and relatively peaceful cooperation among nations", Robert Kagan writes, "are a great historical aberration."

The world is now facing tariffs, the rise of populism, and rising conflicts. This makes it more difficult for investors and analysts to predict business growth. Growing exporters may be hit by tariffs that make them less competitive; new sanctions may drive up the price of oil. But there are some companies in the current market that have the wind on their backs.

Electronics manufacturer Dixon Technologies for example, has made headlines and grown steadily, as major consumer electronics companies shift their manufacturing from China to India. It is projected by analysts to record an EBITDA growth of 59% CAGR during FY25-27.

Dixon is working hard to take advantage of its golden moment, via acquisitions, and in trying to enter display fabrication - a significant backward integration move, since it manufactures TVs, smartphones and laptops. If this initiative gets approved under the Indian Semiconductor Mission 2.0. Dixon would be eligible for a subsidy covering nearly 70% of its Rs. 25,000 crore expected capex.

We look at similar companies, whose growth outperformance has kept valuations in line. The list includes Nifty players, as well as midcaps and smallcaps across industries that are benefiting from different factors: a growing export niche, government support, new project wins, and so on.

To find the full list of these companies, you can look at this screener. To identify these players, the screener looks at the TTM PEG ratio, which is a stock's PE ratio divided by its earnings growth rate.

When earnings growth is especially high relative to the company's valuation, the PEG will be less than 1, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. A PEG ratio between 0 and 1 is the sweet spot for stocks. The screener also looks at momentum score, year change and revenue growth.

We discuss some frontrunners below.

Top growing companies are in finance, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals

Among the 137 companies identified, the fastest growing are in a range of industries, with some of the top ones in finance, pharma, fertilizers, engineering and electronics.

Finance is a wide ranging sector, and the firms that turn up in this list include banks, NBFCs, and holding companies. Kotak Mahindra Bank's reasonably strong Q3 performance compared to its peers, has had analysts turn positive on it. Its healthy PEG ratio and its steady net interest margin has made Kotak an attractive bank play for analysts.

Bajaj Holdings' underlying companies Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Auto have delivered growth in recent quarters in a muted market, although domestic sales for the latter have slowed. Exports for Bajaj Auto however, have been surging, and overtook its domestic sales in February.

Sarda Energy is one of the less familiar names in the list, but it has been a steady outperformer recently, with a growth of 120% in share price over the year.

The company has been investing in expanding its coal mining capacity: it's growing fast in a "dirty" energy industry. It has recently won key clearances such as for the Shahpur West Coal Mine, and is expanding into both power plant and solar energy projects.

Avanti Feeds is another player that looks positioned for growth. It hit a five year high today, as I was writing about the stock. Sitharaman's announcement in the Budget to boost the fisheries sector has put wind in its sails.

Rising shrimp demand from both the US and China also has analysts predicting a strong year for the shrimp industry.

GlaxoSmithKline's stellar Q3FY25 performance triggered a surge in investor interest. Profit jumped 5X, and management sounded bullish on continued growth. The company is benefiting from its presence in high growth domestic pharma markets - pediatric and adult vaccines, as well as respiratory treatments. Both these segments are growing sharply as GSK has focused on expanding patient access here.

These players, and Dixon Tech, which we discussed earlier, have held on to their momentum (momentum scores all above 50). Expect for Dixon, which has aggressive growth forecasts, these are at reasonable PE levels.

You know that disclaimer one hears at the end of every MF ad, said at 1.5X speed: 'investments are subject to market risks'? Market upheavals are unavoidable. In the Trumpian era, they may even be more frequent.

But even with volatility, a quieter market is a great time to look at stocks that seemed too pricey during the bull run. While we have picked out six stocks to analyze, the screener has many interesting names.

Screener: Stocks with a strong PEG ratio and good growth in Q3 revenue, profit

Banking & finance stocks have the highest month change and good PEG TTM

In this section, we look for growth stocks from a slightly different angle. We analyze the PEG ratio (trailing twelve months price/earnings (P/E) to growth ratio). We also see how the stocks did in the most recent quarter results, in Q3FY25. This screener identifies such stocks, with a TTM PEG ratio between 0 and 1 and good YoY growth in Q3FY25 revenue and net profit.

The screener is dominated by stocks from the banking & finance, general industrials, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, realty, and automobile & auto components sectors. Notable stocks in the screener are GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals, Shriram Finance, Hindalco Industries, Chambal Fertilisers, Cholamandalam Finance, Hitachi Energy India, Union Bank of India, and Go Digit General Insurance.

GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals shows up in the screener with a TTM PEG ratio of 0.8. This pharmacauticals company also rose 34.3% over the past month. Its net profit and revenue surged by 402.8% YoY and 17.9% YoY, respectively, in Q3FY25, helping to lower its TTM PEG. The company’s revenue increased on the back of volume growth of 11% YoY and a price hike of 3% in the general medicine segment, and a 14% YoY increase in its vaccine portfolio.

Hindalco Industries has a good TTM PEG of 0.2. This aluminium & aluminium products company’s stock price jumped 11.8% over the past month. The company’s net profit and revenue increased by 60.2% YoY and 10.6% YoY in Q3FY25, helping to lower its TTM PEG. An improvement in sales volumes and margins from the upstream (mining and refining) and downstream aluminium (final products) and copper segments drove the company’s net profit and revenue growth.

You can find more screeners here.

The Baseline created a screener Fast growing companies with …

05 Mar 2025