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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    12 Sep 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 12, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 12, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Eureka Forbes:

    Thisconsumer electronics company rose 2.7% on September 4 after Emkayinitiated a ‘buy’ rating, expecting the stock price to double in the next three to four years. The brokerage set a target price of Rs 725 for the next 12 months, highlighting growth under new management in the underpenetrated water purifier and vacuum cleaner markets.

    Since being acquired by Advent International in 2022, the company has shifted from a legacy appliances maker to a health and hygiene brand. Management has updated product designs, increased research and development spending, and shifted its focus from door-to-door sales to a retail and online presence.

    Eureka Forbes holds about 40% of the Indian water purifier market. However, India’s overall purifier penetration is just 6%, a fraction of the levels in Korea (60%) and China (25%). CEO Pratik Potasaid the key is tackling affordability. “During Q1FY26, we scaled up our range of water purifiers with a two-year filter life. These new products lowered the lifetime cost of ownership, and we are confident that this will drive penetration,” he stated.

    The early results are promising. InQ1FY26, revenue grew 10.7% YoY, led by a 52% surge in the robotics segment of its vacuum cleaner division. Potasaid, "In vacuum cleaners, our early bet on robotics is beginning to bear fruit, helping drive the division to strong double-digit growth." However, the growth came at a cost, as higher advertising spending pushed EBITDA marginsdown by ~50 bps to 11%. 

    But the road ahead isn't clear. Eureka Forbes faces a two-front war against traditional rivals like Kent and tech-challengers like Urban Company, which threaten its high-margin services business. This competitive pressure demands continued high ad spending, which could cap profit growth. And its booming robotics vacuum business is a luxury, making it vulnerable to pullbacks in consumer spending if the economy slows down.

    2. CESC:

    This Kolkata-basedpower utility firm surged 4% last week after the RP-Sanjiv Goenka Groupunveiled its “Growth Vision 2030” plan at its investor day. The company is injecting Rs 32,000 into renewables, distribution, and solar manufacturing, aiming to double its profit by FY30.

    As one of India’s oldest players in the space, CESC commands a presence across the entire energy value chain, from coal mining and generation to transmission and distribution. A key growth driver is its distribution (DISCOM) business, which contributes over 60% of its profits. Management expects distribution profits to double from Rs 840 crore inFY25 to Rs 1,600 crore by FY30, driven by demand growth in Noida, a turnaround in Malegaon, and the Chandigarh acquisition.

    “Our ability to efficiently manage large networks is proven, with technical and commercial (AT&C) losses already in the single digits in Kolkata and Rajasthan,”said MD Sandeep Kumar. The bigger prize, however, is in Uttar Pradesh, where the state is preparing to privatise five large DISCOMs serving nearly 18 million customers. Losses in these networks exceed 30%, creating a huge efficiency gap. Kumar says, “This is exactly where our operating model can add value, by bringing down losses, improving collections, and ensuring reliable supply.”

    On the renewables front, CESC is late but scaling fast. The initial phase of its plan targets 3.2 GW of renewable energy capacity by FY29, with more than a gigawatt already under construction. By FY32, the company aims to hit 10 GW of RE capacity. 

    To ensure these plans materialise, the company has already secured transmission infrastructure for 3.8 GW and has applied for an additional 4 GW, providing clear visibility for execution.

    Diversifying its portfolio even further, CESC is venturing into solar manufacturing, with plans to establish 3 GW of cell and module capacity by FY28. This strategic move not only broadens its earnings base but also vertically integrates the renewable business, providing more control over its supply chain and costs. Reflecting this growth trajectory, ICICI Securities anticipates the company's EBITDA margin will expand by 200 basis points to over 23% by FY27 andmaintains a “Buy” rating on the stock.

    3. Samvardhana Motherson International (SAMIL):

    This auto parts & equipment company jumped over 3% on September 10 after it announced the full acquisition of two of its Turkish subsidiaries. The company took complete control by purchasing the remaining 25% stake in these firms, solidifying its ownership after an initial investment in 2021.

    This move is part of the company’s broader strategy. At its recent annual investor day, it outlined an ambitious five-year growth plan, targeting $108 billion in revenue and a 40% return on capital employed (RoCE) by 2030. A key part of the plan is to expand its customer base beyond traditional European and Indian partners to win more business from major American, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean carmakers.

    However, the road hasn’t been without bumps. The company’s Q1FY26 profit dropped nearly 49% YoY, impacted by challenges in developed markets, including shifting trade policies and lower sales volumes in Europe and North America. Still, overall revenue rose 4.7%, driven by its automotive vision systems division, although it missed Forecaster estimates by 0.3%. The stock features in a screener of companies that have outperformed the industry over the past week.

    Addressing investor concerns about US tariffs, SAMIL’s Director Laksh Vaaman Sehgal said the direct impact is minimal, as exports to the US are limited. He added, “We’re setting up new factories from scratch to tap growth in emerging markets and non-auto segments, with an expected boost to profits later this year.” The company plans to invest Rs 6,000 crore in new facilities and equipment this fiscal year.

    Looking ahead, ICICI Securities is optimistic about the company’s plans, which aims to quadruple revenue and become one of the top global suppliers by replicating past success in new areas like aerospace and electronics. Calling SAMIL a top pick in its segment, the brokerage maintains a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 115.

    4. Cummins India:

    This engine manufacturer hit a new 52-week high on September 10 after Nomura raised its target price to Rs 4,500. The brokerage cited strong demand, cost-cutting measures, and new product plans as reasons for the optimistic outlook. They highlighted the company's expansion into battery energy storage systems (BESS) as a significant area for growth, expecting it to enhance their product offerings.

    Nomura noted that Cummins is initially focusing on battery storage solutions for factories and industrial clients, rather than large-scale systems for power plants. The company will depend mainly on China for its supply chain due to a lack of local suppliers. However, Cummins plans to stand out by adding unique features to its products.

    The brokerage added that recent GST cuts could stimulate demand for power generation, as increased consumption may encourage private investment. Growth in sectors such as real estate, hospitals, data centres, and quick commerce is anticipated to fuel demand. They project the company’s net profit to grow at an 18% CAGR over FY26-28, with a return on equity of 33%.

    In Q1FY26, Cummins’ revenue and net profit surpassed Forecaster estimates by 12% and 27%, respectively. The power generation segment was a primary driver of this performance, with a 31% YoY growth as demand picked up after the implementation of new emission standards. Export revenue saw a 34% increase, led by sales in Latin America and Europe, which were bolstered by products with lower emissions. Analysts see further potential in the US market, especially on large engines like the QSK38 and QSK50, which are used in markets that have stricter emission regulations.

    MD Shveta Arya said, “We expect double-digit growth in FY26, led by domestic demand, while we remain cautiously optimistic about exports. We have introduced battery storage systems for commercial and industrial customers. To be clear, this won’t eat into sales of our existing products but will act as an add-on, especially for customers using solar power.” However, they added that rising competition and tariff-related challenges remain a concern.

    5. RailTel Corporation of India:

    The share price of this telecom services provider surged 9% over the past week, buoyed by recent order wins. On September 8, RailTel Corp secured contracts exceeding Rs 714 crore from the Bihar Education Project Council for digital classrooms and labs. Execution is slated between December 2025 and March 2026.

    In August, the company secured new orders totalling over Rs 220 crore. These included a work order from BSNL and a contract from the Kerala State Information Technology Mission for the operation and maintenance of the state’s data centre project. RailTel also received an order from the Airports Authority of India for telecom services. These additions bring the overall order book to over Rs 7,200 crore.

    RailTel Corp primarily builds and operates telecom infrastructure, utilising its vast optical fibre network along railway tracks to support Indian Railways and deliver broadband and data services nationwide. In Q1FY26, the company’s revenue climbed 33.3% YoY to Rs 744 crore, driven by an improved projects business. Its telecom business grew, albeit more slowly, amid heightened competition in rail wire and other services. Meanwhile, net profit grew by 36% during the quarter.

    Looking ahead, the company anticipates steady growth in its telecom business while its project segment continues its expansion. Management projects the telecom business to grow at an annual rate of 8-9%. CMD Sanjai Kumar highlighted a shift in the company's revenue mix, stating, “Last year, around 65% of our revenue came from projects, and about 35% from telecom. That mix is certainly going to favour the project business in future years.”

    ICICI Securities maintained its ‘Sell’ rating with a lower target price of Rs 255, citing weakness in the company's telecom services business due to intense competition.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    12 Sep 2025
    Thin promises: Weight loss drugs are gaining ground in India

    Thin promises: Weight loss drugs are gaining ground in India

    Like many of us, I sometimes fall into the pattern of ordering Swiggy one too many times, and get a bit chubby.

    Soon enough, the comments start. Indian families don't hold back. From a favourite aunt who's handing me a plate of biryani: "Start your diet after eating this". From an uncle I haven't seen in a while: "Is that two of you or one?" and so on. 

    After the cutting comments, I do a whole year of avoiding my favourite sweets and snacks. Icecream is banished from the freezer, kit-kat is my enemy. But after losing the weight, my favourite foods return to the table. The supermodel Kate Moss once said that "Nothing tastes as good as skinny feels." I think she just never encountered a truly excellent jalebi. 

    Enter the GLP-1 drugs, a magical promise for the weak-willed among us.

    The new generation GLP-1 weight loss medications have been called "miracle drugs" because they cause 15–25% weight loss on average, way more than any drug that came before. For a 60 kg person, that's a weight loss of at least nine kgs – the difference between rude comments and compliments.

    We humans spend a lot of effort trying to resist the food that make us gain weight. The GLP drugs target brain pathways that manage our appetite, so that we just don't feel hungry.  By outsourcing our willpower to these drugs, we can get a version of ourselves that wins the approval of uncles, aunties and dates everywhere. 

    GLP drugs are coming in just as India gets fatter

    You are meeting your college friend after 20 years. When you see him you try to hide your shock
    – more likely than not, he's much fatter than you remember.

    Most college-age people are thin, but the percentage of thin people falls rapidly in each older age group. The total numbers are also higher than ever before. There are now about 254 million people classified as obese in India, and 40 million on diabetes medications.

    Despite the price tag, weight loss drugs are growing fast

    Eli Lilly launched its anti-obesity drug, Mounjaro (tirzepatide), in India in March 2025. Mounjaro is a weekly dose, and a month's supply costs Rs 14,000-17,500.

    Despite the price, the drug has crossed Rs 100 crore in sales in just four months, making it one of the country’s fastest-growing prescription brands ever by value. The drug had sales of Rs 47 crore in July, double its June figure.

    Weight loss will be the "largest category of drugs" in India within five years, as generics boom

    Right now the GLP-1 market globally is a duopoly of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. These companies built on decades-long diabetes research to come up with these revolutionary drugs for weight loss. 

    But the patents for semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, are set to expire in India in March 2026. This will pave the way for a "generic tsunami," with major Indian pharma companies like Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy's and Lupin getting ready to launch affordable generics. The CEO of India Business at Sun Pharma, Kirti Ganorkar, says that Sun will be among the first to launch GLP generics in India on patent expiry. They are also planning to launch in non-US markets like Canada and Brazil.

    With the entry of generics next year, drug prices are set to crash by as much as 80% from the current price tag of Rs. 14000+ a month. “Weight-loss molecules like semaglutide and tirzepatide will be the largest category of drugs in the country in the next 4-5 years,” Vishal Manchanda, pharma analyst at Systematix Group says. He estimates that India's weight-loss drug market will rise from Rs. 700 crore today to Rs 8,000-10,000 crore by 2030.

    The GLP effect on other industries

    Early evidence suggests that the impact of these drugs will not be limited to India's pharma sector. Their role in killing appetite has according to JP Morgan, slowed growth in the FMCG and food sectors in the US, and caused this segment to underperform the S&P 500 by nearly 40% year to date.

    “We have seen a number of...disruptions come and go in consumer staples over the years, but never one quite like GLP-1,” Ken Goldman, an equity analyst at JP Morgan says. Current GLP-1 users in the US purchase around 8% less of items like snacks, packaged foods and soft drinks compared with the average consumer. If this pattern holds in India, it could mean slowing growth across FMCG and QSR.

    Companies like PepsiCo and Nestle are already set to launch smaller portion sizes and healthier options in the US. Companies here may have to plan similarly, as Indian consumers get on GLP-1s.

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    The Baseline
    11 Sep 2025

    India’s IPO story in 2025: Investors go selective, backing quality over hype

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    India's IPO market remains a hotbed of activity in 2025. Indian investors have been enthusiastic and actively participating in new issues. But they are also becoming far more selective, picking companies with strong fundamentals while staying away from ones with aggressive valuations.

    An analyst noted at the ET Soonicorns Summit 2025, “IPOs are making a comeback, but the rules have changed. The old ‘growth at any cost’ approach is fading, and investors now want companies to show profitability, good governance, and transparency before putting in their money”.

    Interestingly, while the total number of IPOs has dipped slightly from 217 in 2024 to 197 in 2025 in the January to August period, the amount of money raised has surged by nearly Rs 10,000 crore. This signals a trend of fewer but much larger companies going public. Much of this fundraising has been led by big-ticket issues such as HDB Financial Services (Rs 12,500 crore), Hexaware Technologies (Rs 8,750 crore), Knowledge Realty Trust (Rs 4,800 crore), NSDL (Rs 4,011 crore), and JSW Cement (Rs 3,600 crore), etc.

    The pipeline of upcoming offerings is fueling further excitement. Audio and wearable brand boAt is targeting an IPO of Rs 2,000 - Rs 2,500 crore by late 2025. Digital payments leader PhonePe, which handles nearly half of all UPI transactions in India, is expected to file its papers by September 2025. Meanwhile, after a long wait, hospitality startup Oyo is making another attempt at going public, planning to file papers in November 2025. This is Oyo’s third DRHP filing - it withdrew the first, and SEBI sent the papers back on its second attempt. Maybe it will be lucky this time. 

    The immediate calendar is also packed, with home-services leader Urban Company's Rs 1,900 crore issue that opened on September 10 with an expected listing on September 17. Dev Accelerator and Shringar House of Mangalsutra are also opening on the same dates.

    In the edition of Chart of the Week, we take a closer look at India’s IPO market in 2025, highlighting strong investor interest, sector-wise trends, and how selective participation is shaping post-listing performance.

    High-flyers and hard landings in 2025

    The 2025 IPO market has split into two clear tracks. On one side are the standout performers, where strong fundamentals and heavy bidding translated into healthy gains. Highway Infrastructure leads the pack with a 64.3% listing gain, followed by Aditya Infotech (50.4%) and GNG Electronics (49.8%).

    What these companies had in common was high subscription—Highway Infrastructure saw a subscription of over 300X, while Aditya Infotech and GNG Electronics drew bids of 100X and 148X, respectively. All three IPOs saw strong demand from institutional investors, even though the qualified institutional buyers’ (QIBs) average subscription was far behind the HNIs and retail investors.

    On the other side are companies that have struggled since their listing day. Laxmi Finance and Indiqube Spaces listed at discounts, losing 13% and 8.9% respectively, while Arisinfra Solutions is currently trading at a 35% discount. The reasons are clear: investors were turned off by factors such as the company not yet being profitable (Indiqube), high debt and a negative PE ratio (Arisinfra), or an issue that simply failed to generate demand, with subscriptions at just 1.9X (Laxmi Finance).

    While the overall IPO activity is high, mainline offerings drove the market. In 2024, more mainboard IPOs led to higher funds raised, unlike previous years when SME IPOs surged but raised less due to fewer mainline listings.

    Where are investors betting big?

    Diving down into specific sectors reveals where investor capital is flowing and why. The cement and construction companies saw one of the strongest listing gains, supported by the government’s infrastructure push through initiatives like the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) and PM Gati Shakti. This policy-driven tailwind fueled the confidence behind Highway Infrastructure’s successful listing.

    The hardware technology & equipment sector also delivered healthy listing gains, with Aditya Infotech and GNG Electronics gaining from rising digital adoption and demand for smart-home solutions.

    Conversely, the hotels & tourism sector struggled, with Brigade Hotel Ventures and Schloss Bangalore (Leela Hotels) both debuting below their issue prices—at discounts of 9.9% and 6.7%, respectively. Investor caution was evident, as both IPOs were only moderately subscribed at 4.5X. The performance reflects underlying financial uncertainties: Leela Hotels returned to profitability in FY25 after a Rs 2 crore loss in FY24, while Brigade’s net profit declined in FY25.

    The general industrials sector saw the highest mainline listings, including Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases, Standard Glass Lining, and Vikran Engineering. Overall, the sector saw generally positive performance, though listing trends were mixed. Ellenbarrie and Standard Glass Lining recorded strong listing gains of over 21%, while Vikran Engineering posted a modest gain of 2%.

    The trend in 2025 so far is clear: investor appetite is selective. Companies tied to policy support or structural demand shifts are being rewarded, while those relying on market buzz or stretched valuations face immediate pushback.

    Decoding the push behind IPO oversubscriptions

    A look at subscription data reveals three distinct investor mindsets. Leading the charge are high-net-worth individuals (HNIs), who oversubscribed their portion by an average of 215X. This aggressive demand is driven by a strategy focused on short-term listing gains. 

    HNIs often use leverage or borrow funds to place large bids, aiming to profit from the initial "listing pop." Their high-risk, high-reward approach is often a key factor in the massive oversubscription of a public issue, but it can also be a sign of a speculative bubble forming around a company.

    Retail investors also showed considerable enthusiasm, with their category being oversubscribed by an average of 91.6X. However, the most insightful trend is seen in the QIBs, which include mutual funds and foreign institutional investors. Their average subscription stood at 45.5X – relatively lower, as the portion allotted to them is much higher than that of HNIs and retail investors, which naturally brings down their subscription multiples.

    QIBs are long-term, fundamental-driven investors who are less influenced by market hype. Their participation is often seen as a mark of a company's genuine long-term value, as they are not chasing a quick exit.

    Harshal Dasani, Business Head, INVAsset PMS, said, “This divergence—weak secondary trade but robust primary activity—is common in maturing markets. Domestic capital is able to support new issues even when global sentiment is weak. It shows investors prefer fresh growth stories over crowded secondary valuations.”

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    The Baseline
    09 Sep 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - September 9, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - September 9, 2025

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Britannia Industries:

    Axis Direct upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this packaged foods company with a target price of Rs 6,750, an upside of 9.9%. Analyst Suhanee Shome cites the recent Goods and Services Tax (GST) reduction as the primary reason for the upgrade.

    The GST on biscuits, packaged foods, chocolates, dairy products, and beverages has been lowered to 5%. Shome notes this will make products cheaper, boost demand, and narrow the price gap with unorganised competitors who previously benefited from tax evasion. This change should help Britannia compete more effectively on price and increase its market share. Additionally, she expects this could encourage premiumisation, where consumers shift to higher-value products within Britannia’s portfolio at more affordable prices.

    In Q1FY26, the company reported revenue growth of 8.8% YoY, supported by higher sales volume and price hikes. Rural markets delivered double-digit growth, while urban growth was supported by e-commerce. Market share gains were seen in most regions, although East India was impacted by distribution restructuring.

    2. ICICI Bank:

    Emkay retains its 'Buy' rating on this bank, with a target price of Rs 1,700, an upside of 21.1%. In Q1FY26, ICICI Bank’s credit growth slowed to 12% YoY due to weaker demand in retail and corporate loans. However, growth in the small and medium enterprise (SME) segment remained strong at 30% and now constitutes about a fifth of the loan book. Management noted that home loan growth was affected by higher interest rates, but the recent rate cut could help improve demand. 

    Analysts Anand Dama and Nikhil Vaishnav highlight that ICICI Bank is strengthening its position through digital banking and cross-selling products. Its SME loans are mostly large-ticket, which reduces risk. Investments in technology and better banking processes are helping the bank to manage costs, improve efficiency and maintain a strong portfolio.

    Despite near-term challenges, Dama and Vaishnav expect ICICI Bank to deliver a return on assets of 2.1-2.3% over FY26-28, supported by cost control and stable asset quality. They also mention that the upcoming listing of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company could unlock more value for shareholders.

    3. Zydus Lifesciences:

    Geojit BNP Paribas reiterates its 'Buy' rating on this pharma company, with a target price of Rs 1,121, an upside of 8.3%. In Q1FY26, the company’s revenue grew 5.9% YoY to Rs 6,574 crore, led by pharmaceuticals and consumer products. Domestic formulation sales rose 8%, driven by chronic therapies in oncology (cancer treatment) and cardiology (heart treatment).

    Management noted that the impact of US pharmaceutical tariffs remains uncertain, but they will continue to supply generics, which constitute about 90% of the US market. They also guided growth in the high-teen to mid-20% range in international markets. The company plans to invest Rs 300 crore in medical devices and healthcare technology (MedTech) over the next 12-18 months.

    Analyst Gopika Gopan expects key priorities to include the launch of the blockbuster drug Semaglutide, a treatment for type 2 diabetes and obesity. Other priorities are likely to be the commercialisation of Desidustat (an anaemia treatment) in China and the rollout of robotic surgery systems in Europe. She adds that Zydus is well placed to sustain growth across India, the US, and emerging markets, driven by specialty launches and MedTech expansion.

    4. Premier Explosives:

    ICICI Direct initiates a 'Buy' rating on this small-cap explosives manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 680, an upside of 26.9%. Analysts Vijay Goel and Kush Bhandari note that the company’s order book stood at Rs 989 crore in Q1FY26, which is 2.1 times its annual revenue, providing clear visibility for the next 2-3 years.

    The company is undergoing a capacity expansion at its Katepally facility to integrate advanced explosives and rockets. At the same time, a new greenfield plant in Odisha is set to add ammunition and raw material production in phases. The company also plans to raise Rs 300 crore to fund expansion and repay debt. Management expects revenue to grow around 44% to Rs 600 crore in FY26.

    Goel and Bhandari highlight that the company is benefiting from strong industry tailwinds, including higher defence spending and increased government procurement. Order inflows for FY26 year-to-date have already exceeded Rs 700 crore, more than the total for FY20-23 combined. They project revenue to grow at 27% CAGR over FY26-28, with EBITDA and net profit growing 40% and 54% respectively, supported by a shift towards higher-margin defence products.

    5. SRF:

    Sharekhan maintains its 'Buy' rating on this chemicals company, with a target price of Rs 3,540, an upside of 20.7%. Management anticipates a 20% growth in the chemical business in FY26. The specialty chemicals segment is likely to perform strongly, supported by new product launches and active ingredients.

    Analysts note that India is now implementing the Kigali agreement, which requires countries to reduce their use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). As India’s reliance on HFCs decreases, demand is shifting toward newer, cleaner alternatives like hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs). The company is well-positioned to benefit from this transition and is also expanding its production capacity for HFO refrigerant gas.

    The brokerage highlights that Asia, including India, will remain the largest market for refrigerant gases. SRF’s backward integration, brand strength, and strong distribution network provide a competitive edge. Sharekhan expects the business to grow at a 20% CAGR, with EBITDA and net profit rising 32% and 51% over FY26-27.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    05 Sep 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 5, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 5, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Blue Star:

    A major government tax reform has provided a significant boost to this consumer electronics company, sending its stock up 3.4% in the last week. The Indian government’s GST overhaul slashed the tax on electronics like air conditioners from a steep 28% down to 18%.

    Fueled by this news, the company’s managing director, B. Thiagarajan, has doubled the sales growth forecast for the upcoming festive season to 30%. He confirmed that the full benefit of the tax cut will be passed on to customers, predicting that the entire industry could see 20% growth in the next financial year thanks to the lower prices.

    This positive outlook comes despite a recent speed bump. Unexpected early rains led to a 28.4% YoY drop in the company's Q1FY26 net profit, as sales in its cooling products segment fell by 13% compared to the previous year. However, the company’s overall business is still growing. Total revenue climbed 3.8% YoY, beating Forecaster estimates by 5.5%, thanks to strong performance in its commercial refrigeration and engineering project divisions. The stock features in a screener of companies which have given consistent returns over the past five years.

    Drilling down into its operations, the company's commercial projects division is sitting on a robust order book worth Rs 5,080 crore, with strong demand from data centers and the healthcare sector. On the other hand, its room air conditioner business faced challenges from the unusual weather. With a current market share of 14%, the company aims to increase this to 15% in the coming years.

    Looking ahead, brokerage firm Sharekhan is optimistic. It believes the company is positioned to benefit from growing demand for air conditioners in India and has opportunities to export to the US and Europe. The firm highlights huge long-term potential, noting that AC ownership in India is still very low compared to the global average. With rising incomes and increasing urbanization, Sharekhan has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, setting a target price of Rs 2,000.

    2. Netweb Technologies India:

    This cloud infrastructure company surged over 37% last week, hitting an all-time high of Rs 3,182.5 on August 5. The rise was fueled by a Rs 1,734 crore order to supply servers built on Nvidia's Blackwell architecture (AI-focused chips). As part of the contract, Netweb Tech will deploy an AI infrastructure facility using the latest GPU-accelerated platforms. This landmark deal, awarded under the IndiaAI Mission, excites analysts as India steps onto the global AI stage, currently dominated by the US and China. 

    The order size represents around 102% of the company’s estimated sales for the current financial year and 72% for the next. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates Netweb’s profit to rise 48% in FY26, with revenue growth of 46.5% to Rs 1,683 crore. Also, it's worth noting that the promoters hold a substantial 71% stake in the company.

    The company’s latest results showed revenue and net profit nearly doubling YoY in Q1 FY26. The AI segment contributed 29% of revenue with a 300% YoY growth. CEO Sanjay Lodha said, “AI’s share will continue growing at the same pace of 40% CAGR as before. We are raising the AI contribution guidance from 20% to 22% for FY26.”

    While Netweb shows growth potential, its valuation is a point of discussion. The stock currently trades at an expensive PE of 115, giving it a low valuation score of 24. However, it's not all red flags – the current PE is still below its average and median, placing it in a neutral zone.

    Ventura has given a ‘Buy’ rating for Netweb, citing optimism about its total order book of Rs 4,142 crore. The brokerage notes that AI investments and private cloud adoption are driving computing demand in India, while the company also plans to expand in Europe and the Middle East. They expect Netweb’s revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 36% and 64% over FY25-28.

    3. Ashok Leyland:

    Thisvehicle manufacturer rose 2.7% over two trading sessions after the companyunveiled on September 1 a Rs 5,000 crore investment plan to develop battery manufacturing in India over the next decade. As a first step, the company will invest Rs 300-600 crore into a new lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery pack facility within the next three years.

    To power this ambitious supply, Ashok Leyland hasentered into a long-term partnership with the Chinese battery firm CALB Group. This collaboration will focus on technology sharing and joint research, with core goals of reducing vehicle manufacturing costs and lowering India’s dependence on imported battery components.

    "The new battery business shall first focus on the automotive sector, and then move to non-automotive areas, including energy storage systems,”said Shenu Agarwal, the company’s MD and CEO. The new manufacturing capacity is set to be a key supplier for its own electric vehicle arm, Switch Mobility, while also serving other vehicle manufacturers in the market.

    Following the announcement, Nomuramaintained its Buy rating but cautioned that the battery business will face initial margin pressure. The brokerage noted that profits will likely be thin at first, but will improve as production scales up significantly. With operations scheduled to begin in the first half of FY27, any delays in the timeline could impact cash flow and returns.

    This strategic pivot comes at a time of strong performance for the company. InQ1FY26, the company’s revenue grew 9.2% YoY to 11,708.5 crore, driven by higher sales in its core commercial vehicles segment. Meanwhile, management isconfident its EV division will break even within the next year, fueled by a strong order book and soaring demand. Switch Mobility currently holds a market share of approximately 41% in India’s e-bus market.

    In a separate but significant boost, the GST Council recently slashed the tax on commercial vehicles from 28% to 18%. Ashok Leyland’s CFO, KM Balaji,explained that previously, a tax disparity encouraged customers to buy a vehicle chassis and have the body built separately to save money. The new, unified 18% rate removes this incentive, simplifying the buying process and likely increasing demand for Ashok Leyland's fully-built vehicles.

    4. Kaynes Technology India:

    Thiselectronic component manufacturer jumped 8% on September 1 after its subsidiary, Kaynes Semicon, announced apartnership with technology services firm UST. The tie-up will fast-track Kaynes’ semiconductor packaging facility in Sanand, with UST providing equipment, technical know-how, and customer connections. Management sees a revenue potential of Rs 1,500 crore from this venture by FY28.

    Revenue mix has shifted towards innovative, design-led, and high-margin businesses. In the first quarter of FY26, printed circuit board (PCB) assembly accounted for 45% of sales, while system-level integration (box-build) fell to 19%. Meanwhile, contributions from original design manufacturing (ODM) and product engineering skyrocketed to 36%, a huge leap from just 2% a year ago.

    This pivot lifted the EBITDA margin to 16.8%, up 350 basis points YoY, and powered a 47% jump in net profit, beatingexpectations. CFO Jairam Sampath said, “For the remaining nine months, you can expect an EBITDA margin similar to the first quarter.” Revenue grew 34% YoY in Q1 but missed estimates slightly, as demand in the box-build segment softened.

    New orders worth Rs 1,480 crore in Q1 lifted the backlog to Rs 7,400 crore, nearly 2.7 times FY25 sales, providing visibility for future growth. The industrial sector has been a key driver, with orders soaring by over 40% YoY and now accounts for more than half of total revenue. Chairman Ramesh Kannansaid, “We are seeing strong traction in aerospace, industrials, and railways, which will continue to grow through FY26, giving us confidence that the order book will only strengthen from here.”

    Macquarieinitiated coverage on the stock with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a target price of Rs 7,700. The brokerage is bullish on Kaynes’ pivot to high-value electronics manufacturing, its strategy of bringing more production in-house, and plans for global expansion. It argues that while the stock trades at rich valuations, they are supported by the trillion-dollar opportunity in India’s Electronics System Design & Manufacturing industry.

    5. TBO Tek:

    This travel support services firm saw its stock soar over 15% on September 3 following the acquisition of US-based Classic Vacations for approximately $125 million (Rs 1,100 crore). TBO Tek also features in a screener of stocks where mutual funds have increased their holdings over the past two months.

    At its core, TBO Tek runs a digital marketplace for the travel industry, handling bookings for everything from flights and hotels to cruises and rail. Classic Vacations, on the other hand, is a specialist in premium luxury travel with a network of over 10,000 travel advisors. With this acquisition, TBO Tek gains direct access to this advisor network, enabling it to sell its high-end travel offerings and expand its presence in the North American market.

    During Q1FY26, the company's revenue grew by a healthy 22% compared to last year, reaching Rs 511 crore, thanks to a boom in its hotels and packages segment. The hotels division alone grew by 32%, fueled by global expansion and the ramp-up of JumboOnline, a European company TBO acquired in December 2023. However, the air ticketing business faced significant headwinds, hit by disruptions like the Pahalgam incident, the India-Pakistan border clash, and the Air India crash in mid-June.

    Looking to the future, TBO Tek believes it is in a prime position to ride the wave of a booming global travel market. Joint Managing Director Gaurav Bhatnagar stated, "The travel industry is expected to grow at an 8.2% CAGR, reaching nearly $2.6 trillion by 2027." He also highlighted a new trend: strong interest in niche travel, such as study abroad programs, luxury getaways, and cruises, particularly among customers in India's Tier 2 and 3 cities.

    While the company's heavy investment in international expansion has temporarily squeezed its margins, which fell by 440 bps in Q1, analysts are optimistic. Brokerage firm Anand Rathi believes that as this spending phase concludes, TBO Tek is on track for revenue growth of 22-23% annually for the next few years, with margins expected to steadily improve from 2027. Reflecting this confidence, it has a 'Buy' stance with a higher target price of Rs 1,725.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    05 Sep 2025
    A bull run in healthcare: Indian hospital stocks are beating the market

    A bull run in healthcare: Indian hospital stocks are beating the market

    By Tejas MD

    Indian benchmark equities look flat over the past year. But the calm surface hides a turbulent story.

    Investors have been on a wild ride, dodging trade fights, tariff announcements, and worries about corporate earnings. The action wasn’t just in the market – political tensions are rising, and the news headlines recently exploded with Trump advisor Navarro’s bizarre claim that the Russia-Ukraine war was “Modi’s war”. 

    The drama is far from over. Now Modi is holding hands with a smiling Putin, and Russia, India, and China huddling together at the SCO summit. Modi has clearly been forced to look for economic concessions – partnerships with Chinese companies, and cheaper crude oil from Russia – to cushion the blow of US tariffs.

    While the Nifty 50 and Sensex appear range-bound, one sector has stood out in this upheaval — the hospital industry.

    Let’s dive in. 


    A bull run in healthcare: Indian hospital stocks are defying the market

    Traditionally a defensive play, hospital chains are behaving like growth stocks, and leaving the Nifty50 in the dust. 

    The top seven hospital chains by market cap have all outperformed the benchmark. Over the last two years, Fortis Healthcare has surged 2.7x. Even Apollo Hospitals, the “laggard” of the group, beat the Nifty 50 by more than 30 percentage points in the past year.

    Healthcare’s healthy run: hospital stocks surge past Nifty 50 returns

    Post-Covid, there has been rising health awareness among Indians, but the health market is still massively underserved. India has just 0.5 hospital beds per 1,000 people, (compared to a global average of 3). Closing this gap means adding over 2 million beds, and hospital chains are racing each other to do that.

    So bed additions have surged, and the key metric – average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) is climbing across companies. Price hikes, higher-margin elective surgeries, and more insurance coverage have all boosted this number. 

    Occupancy has stayed stable even as prices and availability rise. There's just a lot of pent-up demand.  The revenue and net profit of these hospital chains have jumped. 

    Hospitals enter FY26 on a high-growth trajectory

    Profits have gone up across hospital chains, except for the Covid year, which saw low occupancies and postponed surgeries.

    Rising ARPOB and better payer mix to power profit growth

    The great hospital rush: build, build, build

    Max Healthcare’s Managing Director, Abhay Soi, says, “We have per capita income increasing right now, aspirations are increasing, and the desire for proper hospitals is also increasing. I don't see us catching this curve for the next 20-30 years. We need to build, build, build.” 

    Hospital chains are racing to increase their bed counts and have set aggressive targets for fiscal year 2026 and beyond. They are doing this in two ways: capex and acquisitions. 

    Capex momentum in hospitals to stay strong for two years

    Capex for all hospitals are up, with Max Healthcare leading the pack. Hospitals are funding expansions through cash flows, equity, and debt.


    Hospital giants push bed expansion drive

    Hospital chains are also doubling down on acquisitions to grow faster. Max Healthcare snapped up Lucknow’s Sahara Hospital in December 2023 for Rs 940 crore, and also bought a 63.65% stake in Jaypee Healthcare for Rs 398 crore. gaining control of a 500-bed hospital in Noida and a 200-bed unit in Bulandshahr. Others like Aster DM Healthcare are also expanding their footprint. 

    An insurance stand-off even as ARPOB rises 

    Ashutosh Raghuvanshi, MD and CEO of Fortis, says, “ARPOB growth is getting a boost from a rising share of complex cases, as reflected by a 75% increase in robotic surgeries. We are also seeing an improved payer mix via insurance payouts.” 

    ARPOB climbs on higher-margin surgeries and payer mix shifts

    But the path to better numbers isn’t entirely smooth. While hospitals prefer patients who pay through insurance, friction is rising, with more disputes between insurers and hospitals. 

    Hospitals accuse insurers of delays in claim settlements and unfair pricing pressures. Insurers have fired back, saying that hospitals have been inflating their bills.  

    These tensions have flared to the point that over 15,000 hospitals — including Max Healthcare and Medanta—say they have stopped accepting cashless claims from Bajaj Allianz General Insurance from September this year.

    In a workaround, Narayana Hrudayalaya has launched its own insurance arm, bringing the insurer and health provider under one roof to prevent patient overcharging. 

    The final diagnosis: hospital stocks trading at premium valuations as growth looks rosy 

    It’s no surprise that hospital stocks are trading at premium valuations: the market is betting on a bright future. All major hospital companies have forward P/E ratios lower than their current P/E levels, a sign that investors are expecting strong profit growth to continue.

    Major hospitals trade at lower forward multiples vs current PE

    Apollo Hospitals, Global Health, and Narayana Hrudayalaya are all trading below their historical and forward PEs. Narayana Hrudayalaya also appears attractive on an EV/EBITDA basis, at 26, compared to the sector average of 31.

    The sector is in a sweet spot, with strong revenue and profit growth, and a massive IPO coming up in the $1 billion Temasek-backed Manipal Hospitals offering set for FY26 (targeting a valuation of around $13 billion).

    But investors will be keeping an eye on whether capacity expansion continues to translate to profitable growth. Right now, occupancy rates are stable even as beds are being added. But any drops in efficiency would raise red flags—especially for chains like Narayana Hrudayalaya and KIMS, which are seeing lower occupancy levels.

    You can deep dive into the Healthcare Facilities industry here. 

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    The Baseline
    04 Sep 2025

    Retail investor wave powers mutual funds to record momentum

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    The old kings of India’s stock markets are being challenged. The centre of gravity is shifting to retail investors, and the engine driving this change is the humble SIP.

    Month after month, we have seen SIP inflows breaking records, hitting an all-time high of Rs 28,464 crore in July 2025, as households across the country move their wealth into equities and long-term investment products.

    This domestic firepower has helped steady Indian markets in a time of global volatility. When ‘hot’ foreign money has pulled out, retail investors have held the line, keeping the markets resilient and more independent. DIIs have now surpassed FIIs in shareholding of Indian equities, with their stake now at a record high.

    Investors are also getting bolder. While large-cap stocks still get attention, more money is flowing into high-risk, high-reward small-caps and specialised theme-based funds. 

    This trend is worrying insiders watching the market, such as S. Naren, CIO of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, who has warned against this all-in bet on equities. “Despite repeated advice from fund houses to diversify into debt or REITs, Indian households remain overwhelmingly focused on equities,” he said. 

    So is this a story of empowerment or overconfidence? In this edition of COTW, we dig into where retail money is moving, and how the top funds are doing. 

    Beyond the blue chips: small, flexi, and thematic funds take center stage

    The shift in mutual fund preferences is the story of an Indian investor who is growing bolder, and more sophisticated. The appetite for stocks is strong – equity mutual funds saw record inflows of Rs 42,673 crore in July 2025, up 81% from June. 

    But the real story here is where the money is going. Between Q1 2021 and Q2 2025, asset allocation has shifted away from the large caps, with their share declining from 28% to 17% as investors moved away from stability in search of high growth. Multi-cap funds tripled their share from 3% to 9%; thematic and small cap funds are also gaining fast.

    A mood-shift post-Covid

    There has been a break in how investors behaved, before Covid and after Covid. When investors returned to equities post pandemic, sector and theme based funds were the new favourites, as industries like technology, consumer discretionary, and renewable energy zoomed.Gold funds have also become a go-to safe haven amid global uncertainty.

    Fueled by eye-popping returns (the Nifty Smallcap 250 index is up 248% in five years), a wave of FOMO—fear of missing out—has gripped Indian investors. As one expert notes, "A lot of retail investors continue to chase past performance" – and the performance of small- and mid-cap funds has been hard to ignore. 

    Flexi-cap funds that can invest across company sizes and choose international stocks, like the popular Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Fund, have seen massive inflows. These funds offer diversification and allow fund managers to hunt for opportunities anywhere in the market. Small-cap and flexi-cap funds together attracted over Rs 26,000 crore in the June 2025 quarter.

    A GST boost might be next

    Mutual fund inflows have slowed relatively in 2025, but the AUM remains at an all-time high. But another new catalyst is on the horizon: the newly announced GST reforms.

    These reforms slash GST rates into two simplified slabs of 5% and 18%, and cut taxes on essentials so that industries like FMCG, autos, healthcare, and cement are set to benefit. This will lift consumption and corporate earnings, while putting more disposable income in the hands of ordinary Indians. The shift could fuel even more money into SIPs, accelerating the trends we are seeing today.

    Kranthi Bathini, Equity Strategist at WealthMills Securities, says, “We've already seen consumption-oriented stocks moving up after the GST reduction announcement. Mutual funds focused on this space could also benefit in the medium to long term.”

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    The Baseline
    02 Sep 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - September 2, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - September 2, 2025

    By Abdullah Shah

    1. Bikaji Foods International:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this packaged foods company with a target price of Rs 870, implying an upside of 10.2%. Analyst Suhanee Shome believes the company is strategically positioned to benefit from improving demand trends, rural recovery, and market share gains from unorganised players. She also expects its margins to rise on the back of strong topline growth, price hikes, and stable raw material costs.

    In Q1FY26, Bikaji Foods' revenue and net profit grew 11% and 4.3% YoY, surpassing Forecaster estimates by 2.8% and 10.5%, respectively. This growth was driven by strong performance across segments, including ethnic snacks, packaged sweets, western snacks, and papad. Shome also believes the proposed GST cut on namkeens and bhujia (from 12% to 5%) could accelerate category consumption.

    Management's outlook for FY26 is to grow the topline by 9-10%, with momentum expected to build in H2, supported by festive and wedding season demand. The company expanded its direct distribution network by 15,000 outlets to 3.3 lakh in Q1FY26. Shome expects the company to deliver a revenue and net profit CAGR of 14% and 31.8% over FY26-27.

    2. Allied Blenders & Distillers:

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this beverage company with a target price of Rs 600, an upside of 18.3%. Analysts Dhiraj Mistry and Manoj Menon note that ABDL is focusing on premiumisation to drive its growth and margins.

    The management is aiming for mid-teens revenue growth with double-digit volume growth by FY28. They also expect half of its sales to come from premium and higher-end products. Their premium products account for only a small share (~10%) of sales but generate approximately 42% of net profits. To strengthen its portfolio, ABDL has launched ICONiQ White whisky for mid-level consumers and revamped Sterling Reserve B7 whisky in the premium segment.

    Mistry and Menon mention that the backward integration is on track to complete by FY27. Capacity expansion in plastic bottle manufacturing, single malt distillery, and high-purity alcohol distillation is expected to improve gross margins by ~300 bps over two years. They expect revenue, EBITDA, and net profit CAGRs of 12%, 18%, and 28% over FY26-27.

    3. Radico Khaitan:

    Ventura initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this alcoholic products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 4,133, an upside of 42.7%. Analysts highlight that Radico Khaitan has strengthened its position in the Indian made foreign liquor (IMFL) market with successful launches such as Royal Ranthambore whisky and Jaisalmer gin, gaining recognition both in India and internationally.

    Growth is expected to come from premiumisation, an expanded distribution network in Andhra Pradesh, and a higher focus on the prestige & above (P&A) segment. EBITDA margins are likely to improve as raw material prices stabilise and lower energy costs reduce glass packaging expenses.

    The brokerage forecasts revenue to grow at a 20% CAGR to Rs 8,393 crore by FY28, led by a 29% CAGR in the P&A segment. However, analysts note that the recent 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian goods, may impact whisky exports. Higher duties could increase retail prices by $5-10 per bottle, limiting competitiveness against local American spirits.

    4. ITC:

    Deven Choksey upgrades this food, beverages & tobacco company to a ‘Buy’ rating from ‘Accumulate’, with a target price of Rs 512, an upside of 25.9%. Analyst Ishank Gupta is optimistic about the medium-term outlook of the company, led by steady momentum across core FMCG categories, increasing premiumisation in the cigarette portfolio, and continued expansion of digital-first and modern trade channels.

    ITC’s revenue grew by 15.3% YoY in Q1FY26, beating Forecaster estimates by 10.2%, while net profit remained flat, missing estimates. Revenue increased due to improvements across segments, including cigarettes, FMCG, agri, and paperboards, paper & packaging. 

    Management expects stable growth and distinct brand positioning in the FMCG segment, helped by continued investments in trade and marketing. Gupta estimates ITC’s revenue to deliver a CAGR of 10.6%, while net profit and EBITDA will deliver 10.1% CAGR each over FY26-28.

    5. Coforge:

    Motilal Oswal maintains its 'Buy' rating on this IT major, with a target price of Rs 2,240, an upside of 27.7%. Analysts, Abhishek Pathak and Keval Bhagat, note that Coforge aims to achieve $5 billion in revenue, driven by strong deal momentum and resilient client spending. Management is confident in sustaining long-term growth through large deals, diversification, and inorganic opportunities.

    A strong executable order book supports the company's growth plan. Coforge is targeting at least 20 deals worth over $20 million in FY26, with five deals over the line. The company has a high win rate of 40-45% in proactive proposals, outperforming traditional request-for-proposal-led deals. This strategy is crucial to maintain its growth trajectory.

    Pathak and Bhagat state that Coforge's acquisition of Cigniti will create cross-selling synergies and enhance its capabilities. They also add that inorganic growth remains a near-term priority of the management to add capability depth and diversify further. 

    The company has guided for an EBIT margin of approximately 14% for FY26, which it believes is sufficient to support its growth ambitions.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    29 Aug 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 29, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 29, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Maruti Suzuki India:

    This car manufacturer hit an all-time high of Rs 14,895 on August 28 following reports that the government may announce a cut in GST on most cars and two-wheelers before Diwali 2025. The proposals under discussion include lowering GST on small cars and two-wheeler petrol vehicles to 18% from 28%, while large cars may see a cut to 40% from the current 43–50%.

    Global brokerages Nomura and Jefferies are positive on Maruti Suzuki, noting that carmakers are likely to benefit more than two-wheeler makers from the proposed GST cuts. This is because two-wheeler companies will soon face higher costs from implementing anti-lock braking systems, which the government has mandated from January 2026. Maruti, with 68% of its sales coming from small cars, is well placed to benefit from the tax cuts. Jefferies expects the company’s earnings to rise by 2–8% over FY26–28.

    Nomura highlights that since carmakers usually offer higher discounts, there is room to reduce them now. The brokerage estimates this could lead to a margin improvement of 100–150 bps for all OEMs, even if the full GST reduction is passed on to customers.

    On August 26, Maruti launched its first all-electric SUV, the e-Vitara. The model is aimed mainly at global markets, with plans to cover over 100 countries, starting with Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Analysts however, expect domestic EV demand to slow, since GST cuts on conventional vehicles could make electric cars comparatively more expensive, potentially delaying the EV adoption by 2–3 years.

    Rahul Bharti, Chief Investor Relations Officer (CIRO), said, “We expect SUVs, including electric models, to be a key driver of growth during the festive season and in the medium term." But he cautioned that Maruti faces supply challenges for EV magnets and is working on alternatives through localization and diversified sourcing.

    2. Titan:

    Thisgems & jewellery maker has risen by 7% over the past month. Bernstein recentlyinitiated coverage on the company with an ‘Outperform’ rating and set the target price at Rs 4,200. The brokerage believes the company is well-poised to benefit from India's growing shift towards organised players and modern consumer preferences. This is the highest target in the consensus – the average target from analysts on Titan, according toTrendlyne’s Forecaster, is Rs 3,941.

    DuringQ1FY26, the company’s revenue grew by 24.6% YoY to Rs 16,523 crore, driven by improvements in the watches and jewellery segments. Net profit was up 52.6% at Rs 1,091 crore. Both revenue and net profit beat Trendlyne’sForecaster estimates by 13.5% and 15.7%, respectively.

    Titan’s jewellery businessgrew 16.6% YoY in the quarter, led by a 15% rise in its gold portfolio. Growth was primarily thanks to higher ticket sizes (the average customer spend per purchase), which helped offset the impact of rising gold prices. 

    The company also highlighted changing customer tastes, including rising demand for 18-carat jewellery across segments, and growing traction for 14-carat jewellery in some regions. To mitigate the impact of higher gold prices, Titan launched 9-carat diamond jewellery. With the festive season ahead, analysts expect jewellery demand to pick up further, leaving Titan well-positioned to capitalise. The company is targeting 15–20% growth in its jewellery division for FY26.

    Most jewellery players have delivered strong results despite global headwinds like geopolitical tensions, tariff volatility, and surging gold prices. Addressing the tariff impact, MD C.K. Venkataramansaid, “The US contributes just over 2% of Titan’s sales, making recent tariff developments less significant in the short term. Our international jewellery business is expanding rapidly, with the GCC market expected to grow substantially. Combined with the US, overseas sales could soon contribute around 6% of total revenues”. Meanwhile, Titan’s watches segmentgrew by 24% YoY, primarily driven by improved analogue watch sales and strong growth in the Helios retail channel. 

    Bernstein highlights Titan’s opportunities in international jewellery, especially after the Damas acquisition in the Middle East, as well as in its eye-care business, which offers longer-term incremental growth opportunities if executed well.

    3. Divi's Laboratories:

    Thispharma company rose 1.6% on August 25 following Jefferiesupgrade to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’, with a higher target price of Rs 7,150. The brokerage cited two major trends that could benefit the company: the rising demand for diabetes and weight loss drugs and the global shift of manufacturing away from China. On the impact of US tariffs, CEO Kiran Divi said, ”Right now, there is no clear methodology on what the tariff will be. But we have long-term supply agreements, which will protect the company.”

    Divi’s has thelargest production capacity among Indian drugmakers at 16,500 kilolitres (KL). Nearly all of this capacity has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), with the remaining capacity expected to receive approval within the next two years.

    A key focus is on GLP-1 drugs, which help control blood sugar and support weight loss in patients with Type 2 diabetes. Divi’s is India’s key supplier of these drugs, holding contracts to supply both injectable and oral versions. Analystsexpect GLP-1 drugs to contribute $250 million (around Rs 2,200 crore) in revenue by FY28.

    To manufacture such medicines, companies require peptides, short chains of amino acids that serve as the building blocks for these drugs. Divi’sis “backward integrated”, meaning it can produce these raw materials (peptides) in-house. Kiran Divisaid, “Most customers are coming to us because of our ability to make key starting materials and peptide fragments. This places us uniquely in the GLP-1 opportunity.”

    Financially, inQ1FY26, the company reported a 26.7% YoY rise in net profit to Rs 545 crore with revenue growth of 13.7% to Rs 2,410 crore. The custom synthesis segment, which includes GLP-1 drugs and peptides, accounts for 53% of revenue and grew 23%. Growth in the segment was driven by strong demand from companies developing new drugs and thecommissioning of Kakinada Unit-III, which expanded the production capacity. 

    Jefferies noted that Divi’s custom synthesis segment grew 19% YoY in FY25, led by the heart failure drug Sacubitril Valsartan. They cautioned that the segment may face near-term volatility due to the launch of Entresto generics in the US, after the July 2025 ruling allowed generic versions of a drug to enter the market. However, Jefferies expects the segment to deliver a 16% CAGR between FY26-28.

    4. Action Construction Equipment (ACE):

    Thiscrane maker surged 6% last week as investors bet on demand tailwinds from GST rationalisation, likely to be finalised at the September council meeting. A simpler GST structure could boost consumption and revive private capex. ACE, with over 60% market share for cranes in India, stands to benefit from this revival.

    In addition, the rising public capex on roads, rail, metros, and logistics is reinforcing theprospects of medium-term order pipelines for ACE’s cranes, construction, and material-handling equipment. Executive Director Sorab Agarwal expects the construction equipment and road machinery business to grow 30–40% this year as order releases pick up, supported by Minister Nitin Gadkari’s push for a faster approval of road tenders. Tower crane volumes, which climbed 16% YoY in Q1, further highlight resilience in the real estate sector and the broader construction ecosystem.

    The recent rebound in ACE’s stock followed an over 15% slide after itsQ1FY26 results on August 8, where revenue fell 8% YoY and more than 50% QoQ. The drop was largely due to pre-buying of cranes in late FY25 ahead of new emission and safety norms, which resulted in price hikes of over 10%. Early monsoons and weak investment sentiment amid tariff and geopolitical uncertainty further weighed on sales.

    CMD Vijay Agarwalsaid, “We expect demand to normalise from the second quarter and improve more visibly from Q3, as pricing transition issues settle and the monsoon recedes.” Despite the revenue decline, ACE delivered a 16% YoY rise in net profit, driven by margin expansion from price hikes, cost efficiencies, softer input costs, and higher other income.

    Based on its existing capacity, ACE can scale up to Rs 5,000 crore in revenue, offering over 30% growth headroom from current levels without major capex until FY27, when it is targeting sales of Rs 4,400 crore. In the near term, the company is prioritising modernisation and automation with over Rs 100 crore earmarked for FY26, alongside Rs 130 crore for land acquisitions. Beyond this, ACE has planned a larger expansion of Rs 250–300 crore over the next two years to drive its longer-term ambition of reaching Rs 6,600 crore in revenue by FY29.

    5. PVR INOX:

    The stock of this movies & entertainment company rose 14.4% over the past month. On August 22, it launched a 10-screen megaplex in Borivali, Mumbai, with a total seating capacity of 1,372, and spread across 43,500 sq ft. PVR INOX’s Managing Director, Ajay Bijli said, "Mumbai remains a key market, and this launch under our capex model shows our commitment to aspirational cinemas."

    In Q1FY26, the company significantly reduced its net loss to Rs 54 crore, down from Rs 125 crore in the prior year. Revenue climbed 23% YoY, driven by an 8% increase in average ticket prices and a 23% rise in movie ticket sales. Operating revenue surpassed Forecaster estimates by 1.7%, with F&B and ad revenues growing 22.4% and 17.3%, respectively The stock features in a screener of companies with improving net cash flow over the past two years.

    Q1 cinema admissions increased 12% YoY, reaching 3.4 crore. The company’s management expects to exceed its FY24 number of 15 crore footfalls in FY26, backed by a strong content pipeline including "Coolie" and "Avatar 3." Mr. Bijli added that FY26 began robustly for the Indian box office, with Bollywood collections up 38% due to successful films. He noted that their "Blockbuster Tuesdays" offer which started in April, has been highly effective, attracting nearly 1 million new and returning moviegoers and boosting weekday attendance.

    Regarding capital expenditure, CFO Gaurav Sharma stated, "Our capex guidance remains unchanged despite plans for 90 to 100 new screens and increased renovation spending decided earlier this year. We expect a total spend of approximately Rs 400-425 crore. This includes about Rs 250-260 crore for new screens."

    Geojit BNP Paribas attributes the stronger Q1 performance to a robust content slate and improved admissions. While it flags risks like Karnataka pricing and external disruptions, it sees support from a rebound in Hollywood content, select Bollywood hits, and consistent regional demand. The brokerage maintains an ‘Accumulate’ rating with a revised target price of Rs 1,252.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    28 Aug 2025

    Chart of the Week: Domestic demand gives finance, hotels, jewellery and IT services a boost

    By Abdullah Shah

    India’s economy grew 6.7% in Q1FY26, according to ICRA estimates – a slower pace of growth. Signs of a muted economy showed up in corporate performance, as India Inc. recorded its fifth straight quarter of single-digit earnings growth. This was largely due to weakness in the IT and manufacturing sectors. 51 companies transitioned from profit in Q4FY25 to losses this quarter.

    Domestic support from government spending, liquidity, and RBI policy helped stabilise the economy, but global upheaval, including Trump's proposed 50% tariffs, volatile crude oil prices, and changing interest rates, have made CEOs cautious.

    Emkay Global’s Seshadri Sen noted, “The broader market delivered weak earnings for Q1FY26, though trends did not worsen significantly. We see this as the bottom for the cycle, and expect a recovery from H2FY26, led by consumer discretionary spending.”

    According to Trendlyne’s Results dashboard, more than 58% of Nifty500 companies have reported positive net profit growth for the quarter ending June 30. This Chart of the Week looks at industries with strong YoY growth in revenue and net profit. The major industries include investment companies, hotels, gems & jewellery, internet software & services, and finance. 

    Strong portfolios give investment companies a boost

    In Q1FY26, investment companies significantly outperformed other industries, boasting an 86.4% rise in revenue and a 47% increase in net profit YoY, thanks to strong portfolio gains. Sundaram Financial Holdings, Maharashtra Scooters and Summit Securities saw the highest growth.

    Sundaram Financial Holdings' Q1FY26 revenue jumped 317.8% and net profit grew 42.4% YoY, due to rising investments. The company significantly increased its direct holding in Axles India to 63% from 38.8%, taking its effective holding to 89.4% in April, allowing for full financial consolidation. The sale of 5.6 lakh TVS Holdings shares for Rs 301.4 crore contributed to its revenue and profit.

    Both Maharashtra Scooters and Summit Securities also reported strong Q1FY26 performances, driven by gains in their portfolios. Maharashtra Scooters’ revenue grew 279.2% and net profit soared 328.1% YoY, with an additional boost from an 82.6% cut in expenses. Summit Securities reported a 32.2% increase in revenue and a remarkable 585.5% surge in net profit, benefiting from a low Q1FY25 base that included a divestment-related loss.

    Hotels see higher room rates and occupancy in Q1FY26

    Strategic moves, including expansion into Tier 2 and 3 cities and a shift from property ownership to management contracts, propelled the hotels industry's Q1FY26 performance. It reported a 38.1% rise in revenue and an impressive 82.5% increase in net profit YoY.

    The industry is witnessing strong demand for domestic travel, MICE events, weddings, and business travel. Indian Hotels, Chalet Hotels and ITC Hotels emerged as the top performers this quarter.

    Leading the hotels industry, Chalet Hotels’ Q1FY26 revenue climbed 147.8% and net profit surged 234.9% YoY, exceeding Forecaster estimates by 101.2% and 196.4%. Strong hospitality segment performance, marked by higher average room rates (ARR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR), drove revenue growth. An additional boost of Rs 439.1 crore in residential project sales further strengthened the top line.

    Sanjay Sethi, MD and CEO of Chalet Hotels, noted, "We expect double-digit RevPAR growth over the next 3-4 years, driven by a strong travel ecosystem within India, both on the leisure and business sides."

    In Q1FY26, ITC Hotels’ revenue increased by 15.5% and net profit by 53.8% YoY, surpassing Forecaster estimates for both. Indian Hotels also reported growth, with revenue up 31.7% and net profit rising 19.3%, though its net profit fell short of estimates. Higher domestic travel led to increased average room rates (ARR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR), driving growth at Indian Hotels.

    A strong wedding season and rising gold prices drive growth for the gems & jewellery industry

    Strong domestic demand, driven by the wedding season and higher gold prices, propelled the gems & jewellery industry to a 24.3% revenue increase and a 43% net profit jump YoY in Q1FY26. Export growth, however, was tempered by anxieties surrounding the new US tariffs. Key players, including Titan, Kalyan Jewellers, and PC Jeweller, led growth.

    Titan’s Q1FY26 revenue jumped by 24.6% and net profit by 52.6% YoY, beating Forecaster estimates. Healthy performance across its jewellery, watches, and eyewear segments fueled this growth. Jewellery led the gains, benefiting from demand during the wedding season and higher average transaction values resulting from rising gold prices. Robust sales volumes and a favourable shift to higher-margin products further boosted profitability.

    CK Venkataraman, Managing Director of Titan, said, “In light of the tariffs, Titan is exploring a Middle East Gulf country as a manufacturing base to export to the US."

    Kalyan Jewellers’ Q1FY26 revenue grew 31.3% and net profit increased 48.6% YoY, surpassing Forecaster estimates. Aggressive store expansion and strong sales at existing stores drove this growth. Meanwhile, PC Jeweller’s revenue and net profit rose 80.7% and 3.8% year-over-year, benefiting from a low base in Q1FY25.

    Core business momentum powers growth in internet software & services 

    In Q1FY26, the internet software & services industry’s revenue and net profit grew by 22.3% and 4,230.1% YoY, fueled by AI-driven operational efficiencies and strong performance in key segments like digital payments, insurance tech, and gaming. Nazara Technologies, One97 Communications (Paytm) and PB Fintech were at the forefront of these gains.

    Nazara Technologies delivered mixed but strong results in Q1FY26 – revenue jumped 99.4% and net profit rose 136.2% year-over-year. While revenue missed Forecaster estimates, net profit exceeded them. Better performance in its gaming, e-sports, and ad-tech segments boosted its top-line. The gaming segment surged 159.6% YoY, due to strong contributions from Fusebox and Animal Jam.

    However, Nazara Technologies’ stock fell 18.9% last week after the company suspended real-money gaming operations following the passage of the Online Gaming Bill, 2025, which bans money games, ads, and payments, posing major risks to the sector.

    One97 Communications’ revenue climbed 27.7% and net profit soared 114.6% YoY in Q1FY26, propelled by growth in subscription merchants, gross merchandise value, and financial services. The company also improved its profitability by utilising AI to reduce expenses in marketing, employee, and technology areas. 

    PB Fintech’s revenue increased by 33.4% and its net profit rose by 40.6% YoY, helped by higher insurance premiums and lending disbursements.

    Interest rate cuts and strong retail credit demand fuel growth in the finance industry

    The finance industry’s Q1FY26 revenue rose 21.5% and net profit 17.8% YoY, driven by strong retail credit demand, including gold loans and RBI rate cuts since February. Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Investment & Finance, and Muthoot Finance were contributors to growth.

    Bajaj Finance delivered a strong Q1FY26 performance, with revenue growing 21.3% and net profit increasing 20.1% YoY, with revenue meeting and net profit exceeding Forecaster estimates, respectively. Larger assets under management (AUM), increased loan bookings, and rising customer additions, driven by high demand in the mortgage sector, contributed to this growth.

    Cholamandalam Finance & Investment posted Q1FY26 revenue growth of 25% and net profit growth of 20.1% YoY, driven by strong AUM growth in vehicle and loan-against-property segments. Muthoot Finance’s revenue rose 44.2% and net profit 73.2% YoY, boosted by a surge in gold prices above Rs 1 lakh in April, which enabled larger loan disbursals and fueled AUM, revenue, and profit growth.

    The healthcare services and other industrial products industries' revenue and net profit also increased by 19.6% & 28.8%, and 17.7% & 27.9% YoY. Standout performers from the healthcare services industry are Inenturus Knowledge Solutions, Dr. Lal Pathlabs, and Metropolis Healthcare. On the other hand, Solar Industries, PTC Industries, and Premier Explosives drove growth in the other industrial products industry.

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