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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    30 Aug 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 29, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 29, 2024

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Karur Vysya Bank:

    Asit C Mehta initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 265 implying a 18.6% upside. The bank reported net profit growth of 18.9% YoY to Rs 458.7 crore in Q1FY25 while its operating revenue grew 21.3% YoY to Rs 2,284.5 crore. Analyst Akshay Tiwari and Shweta Upadhyay highlight that the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) and net non-performing assets (NNPA) declined from 8.7% and 3.9% in FY20 to 1.3% and 0.4% respectively in Q1FY25.

    The analysts expect the bank to see growth in its retail and MSME loan portfolios, while corporate lending growth may remain subdued. The bank's initiatives to attract retail customers should lead to an increase in retail deposits, thereby improving its CASA ratio and driving higher net interest margins. Asset quality continues to improve, supported by healthy recoveries and lower loan defaults.

    Tiwari and Upadhyay project the bank's loan book will grow at a CAGR of 16.3% over FY 25-27 (CAGR of 19.7% excluding corporate loans). Margins are expected to improve to 4.4% by FY27. Additionally, they anticipate the bank's net interest income (NII) and PAT to increase at CAGRs of 18% and 25%, respectively, over the same period.

    2. Royal Orchid Hotels:

    Edelweiss maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this hotels company with a target price of Rs 477. This indicates a potential upside of 29.4%. Royal Orchid’s revenue grew 6% YoY to Rs 73 crore in Q1FY25, driven by strong room additions (up 13.7% YoY). However, the EBITDA margin declined by 347 bps YoY to 22.8%. Analysts Amit Agarwal and Rishith Shah predict, “Margins will face pressure in FY25, declining to 23.8% due to higher fixed costs to aid its property expansion.”

    The analysts are still bullish, due to the company’s expansion plans. The company plans to add 1,900 rooms across 26 hotels in FY25, expanding its total inventory to nearly 7,826 rooms. It aims to drive growth through new management contracts and revenue-sharing agreements. The company also recently opened a new five-star hotel in Mumbai with 300 rooms, expecting an average room rate (ARR) of Rs 9,000–11,000 and approximately Rs 120 crore in revenue at an 80% occupancy rate.

    Agarwal and Shah expect a 16.3% revenue CAGR over FY25-26, driven by a 5% ARR growth from improved occupancy, over 1,200 new rooms, increased food & beverages income, and higher in-resort spending.

    3. Kalpataru Projects International:

    Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on Kalpataru Projects International (KPIL), setting a target price of Rs 1,550, indicating a potential upside of 15.9%. This construction and engineering company reported a 19.1% YoY decline in net profit to Rs 93 crore in Q1FY25, while revenue grew by 8.2% YoY to Rs 4,609 crore.

    Analysts Ashwani Sharma and Chinmay Kabra noted that KPIL’s order inflow for the year stands at Rs 7,000 crore, down 5% YoY due to a higher base, despite strong growth in the power transmission & distribution (T&D) and water segments. The company has a robust order backlog of Rs 57,100 crore, with FY25 order inflow guidance set at Rs 23,000 crore.

    A key positive for KPIL is its recent arbitration win against the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for two road projects. The company is also progressing with the divestment of Vindhyachal Expressway and Indore Real Estate, and expects to  generate Rs 550 crore  in cash flow from these two assets by FY25.

    Sharma and Kabra project a 20% CAGR in revenue, 27% in EBITDA, and 38% in PAT over FY 25-27. The company’s strong order book and favorable industry conditions support a one-year forward PE ratio of 20 times.

    4. Mankind Pharma:

    Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceutical company with a target price of Rs 2,760, indicating a 13.7% upside. Analyst Tushar Manudhane notes that Mankind is focused on launching innovative products in the high-barrier chronic and consumer segments. The recent launch of Nimulid, a consumer wellness product, generated Rs 13.3 crore in revenue for FY24. Additionally, the company is expanding its presence in Tier I and metro cities through hospital partnerships.

    Mankind’s acquisition of Bharat Serums and Vaccines (BSV) has enhanced its R&D, manufacturing, and institutional capabilities while gaining access to a specialty portfolio and a new distribution channel. BSV’s strong presence in women’s healthcare includes unique drugs with no direct competitors.

    Manudhane is upbeat about Mankind’s expansion into new sectors such as pet food, agritech, and ayurveda (following the acquisition of Upakarma). He anticipates a 14% CAGR in earnings and a 180 bps margin expansion over FY25-26, driven by increased footprint in metro and Tier-I cities and expanding the number of brands in the Rs 50-100 crore range.

    5. EFC:

    Khambatta Securities gives a ‘Buy’ rating to small cap company EFC, setting a target price of Rs 863, which suggests a potential upside of 72.3%.This realty firm reported a net profit increase of 190.5% YoY to Rs 15.1 crore in Q1FY25 and its revenue grew 84.6% YoY to Rs 105.3 crore during the quarter. The company is in a PE buy zone.

    The analyst notes that flexible office spaces have transformed India's commercial real estate sector, doubling from 29.3 million sq ft (MSF) in 2019 to 61 MSF in 2023, making it the fastest-growing market.The sector is projected to reach 126 MSF by 2028, absorbing over 40 MSF annually as companies return to office. EFC has established a strong market presence, delivering projects for major clients including Conneqt and Tech Mahindra, and securing its largest contract with Coforge to develop 100,000 square feet of commercial space.

    The analyst expects revenue to grow at an annualized average rate of 77% over the next few years while forecasting a PAT CAGR of 105%, driven by profitability gains and adds that at a FY26 forward PE of 11.2 times, the EFC stock looks attractive.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    28 Aug 2024

    Chart of the Week: Financial firms continue on their growth trajectory in Q1, while the gems & jewellery industry struggles

    By Satyam Kumar

    At the monetary policy meeting on August 8, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) rate-setting panel maintained India's economic growth outlook, projecting GDP growth of 7.2% for FY25, after keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. 

    The GDP growth forecast for the full year and the upcoming quarters is unchanged, but RBI’s forecast for Q1FY25 has been revised down to 7.1%. A poll conducted by Financial Express among economists suggests that Q1 growth, estimated at 6.7%, will be the lowest compared to the past five quarters. This slowdown is attributed to weaker manufacturing and agricultural activity, alongside a decline in government spending. The National Statistical Office (NSO) is set to release the Q1FY25 GDP data on August 30.

    According to Trendlyne’s Results dashboard, more than 60% of the Nifty500 companies have reported positive net profit growth in their results for the quarter ending June 30. This edition of Chart of the Week looks at YoY growth in revenue and net profit across industries, and the biggest contributors here.

    Exchanges & capital markets industry continue to outperform in Q1FY25

    India’s capital markets have been on a consistent upward trajectory over the past few years, and the last quarter was no exception. Markets hit new highs, with Nifty50 near its all-time of 25,073 after rising 30% over the past year. Revenue growth in the industry has reached new highs with each passing quarter driven by rising investor confidence. According to Trendlyne’s Results Dashboard, the exchange industry witnessed its revenue double on a YoY basis in Q1. 

    For BSE, transaction charges—which make up more than half of the total revenue—soared by 5.6X YoY to Rs 366 crore. Revenue from equity derivatives also jumped to Rs 242 crore, compared to just Rs 1.6 crore in Q1FY24, thanks to a relaunch of derivatives in May last year. However, net profit declined 40.1% YoY to Rs 265.1 crore due to a higher base, which is evident on a QoQ comparison, where it surged 147.6%. Similarly, revenue for MCX India surged 52.3% YoY to Rs 253 crore, with net profit rising 464.2% YoY to Rs 111 crore due to a lower base in the corresponding quarter during the previous year.

    The capital markets industry registered an overall revenue and net profit growth of 60.1% and 73.8% respectively, in Q1FY25. Firms like Motilal Oswal Financial Services, ICICI Securities and Angel One contributed significantly to this surge.

    Consumer electronics and realty ride the tide of better living standards

    The consumer electronics industry saw average revenue growth of 51.7% YoY, while net profit surged 139.5%. Once considered a luxury, room air-conditioners (AC) have become mainstream as summers get hotter. AC manufacturers like Voltas and Blue Star reported net profit growth of 158.5% and 102.6% respectively in Q1FY25, driven by high demand. None of the above-mentioned companies were able to keep up with the rising demand in the peak summer months of April to June. This led them to announce huge capex in FY25 in a bid to double their manufacturing capacity by FY26, to prepare for the next summer.

    Another consumer electronics front-runner, Dixon Technologies saw revenue and net profit almost doubled on a YoY basis in Q1FY25 driven by the Make in India initiative. The rise in sales was driven by their mobile and electronic manufacturing services (EMS) division. This division saw revenue growth of 189% YoY to Rs 5,192 crore, and contributed 79% to the total revenue in Q1FY25, compared to 55% during the same period last year.

    Meanwhile, the realty industry had a mixed performance in Q1FY25, with both winners and losers. However, the industry registered an average revenue and net profit growth of 24.9% and 140.6% respectively. Firms like Macrotech Developers, Oberoi Realty and Brigade Enterprises contributed significantly to the growth of the industry.

    Gems & jewellery industry moderates in Q1, while the movies & entertainment industry witnesses a decline

    Industry leader, Titan saw its revenue moderate in Q1FY25 driven by rising gold prices which led to subdued demand. Meanwhile, Kalyan Jewellers India and Senco Gold saw their net profit surge 23.5% and 85.3% respectively on a YoY basis driven by healthy same-store-sales growth and new store additions. On the contrary, Rajesh Exports’ share price continues to hit new lows as its net profit falls to 96.2% YoY to Rs 12 crore due to high operating costs.

    The movies and entertainment industry also registered a decline in their business owing to general elections and a cricket-heavy season which resulted in a 13% YoY drop in movie releases. PVR INOX’s revenue and net profit declined on a YoY basis by 8.8% and 119% respectively in Q1FY25. Similarly, Prime Focus’ revenue and net profit declined on a YoY basis by 32.8% and 75.3% respectively.

    Healthcare facilities & fertilizers industry show early signs of recovery

    Both healthcare facilities and fertilizers industries reported average revenue moderation corresponding to the same quarter during the previous year but delivered positive net profit growth on a YoY basis in Q1FY25.

    The healthcare facilities industry’s average revenue growth declined by 3.1% in Q1, but the net profit surged by 488% on a YoY basis. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Fortis Healthcare and Aster DM Healthcare contributed significantly to this surge in net profit. Apollo Hospitals witnessed growth across all segments, driven by higher occupancy and outpatient volumes. Similarly, Fortis’ occupancy increased from 64% in Q1 last year to 67% in Q1FY25 leading to higher revenue per occupied bed.

    Similarly, the fertilizer industry saw its average revenue growth decline by 5.7% in Q1FY25, however, net profit surged 12% YoY driven by forecasts of a good monsoon this year. National Fertilizers and Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals saw moderate revenue growth, but net profit rose 92.8% and 32.4% respectively on a YoY basis.

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    The Baseline
    24 Aug 2024
    2024 becomes the 'Year of IPOs' | Screener: Newly listed stocks with rising revenue and profits in Q1

    2024 becomes the 'Year of IPOs' | Screener: Newly listed stocks with rising revenue and profits in Q1

    By Tejas MD

    When the tide rises, a lot of boats turn up to ride the wave. As Indian markets hit record highs, multiple companies - both SMEs and mainstream - have been launching IPOs on a near daily basis. According to Trendlyne’s IPO dashboard, 2024 has seen a record 204 companies list on the exchanges so far.

    Most of these companies are raising funds for expansion, working capital and to pay their debts. Some big-name IPOs are also coming up:

    Swiggy, the food delivery platform became a unicorn by making our food cravings - like midnight chicken biryani - too easy to satisfy. It is reportedly set to file its IPO prospectus with SEBI in early September. Last week, the Indian IPO scene was buzzing with Ola Electric's debut, which surprised everyone by soaring to hit the upper circuit on the first day. The stock is currently up 80% from its issue price.

    How has the IPO landscape fared overall, in this year’s booming equity market? Let’s dive in.

    In this week’s Analyticks,

    • Indian IPO market: Number of listings zoom, success rate climbs 
    • Screener: IPOs with rising revenue and net profit YoY in Q1FY25 

    Indian IPO market switches to top gear in 2024

    The IPO market struggled in the pandemic year 2020, with a 15% fall in number of listings. But listings recovered from 2021, and the record number of new public offerings in 2023 made it the ‘Year of IPOs’.

    But 2024 is set to take the ‘Year of IPOs’ crown from 2023. Trendlyne’s IPO dashboard  shows 121 IPOs listing between January and August 2023. This puts 2024 already ahead, with 204 IPOs listing over the same period.  

    2024 on track to see the highest number of IPOs listed in six years

    India used to be a laggard in IPOs (especially pre-covid), with few large deals. That has changed. According to Dealogic, India now ranks as the second biggest IPO market, behind only the US and ahead of Japan, UK, Saudi Arabia and China, with firms collectively raising $32.6 billion this year till August 6 in the equity capital markets. 

    Indian equity capital markets collectively raise $32.6 Bn in 2024 – next only to the US

    This is good news for investment banks, which hold road shows, talks and strike deals with qualified institutional investors (QIBs) for subscriptions in the IPOs they are underwriting. Ola Electric and FirstCry IPOs alone made investment banks Rs 241.4 crore. The fees earned from IPOs in the first seven months of 2024 have almost matched the total fee earnings for all of 2023. 

    Investment banking companies rake in fees from large issue-size IPOs 

    The excitement in IPOs this year being driven by institutional investors. In 2024, QIBs have had an average subscription rate of 80.1 times in IPOs, compared to 33.2 times from retail investors. 

    QIBs and HNIs are driving the IPO market 


    The vast majority of Indian IPOs list in the green

    Over the past six years, the total number of Indian IPOs listing with gains has steadily increased. As of August 19, 90% of all IPOs in 2024 (mainline and SME) have listed above their issue prices, with a median listing gain of 36.3%. 

    IPO success rate climbs: Most list in the green

    When it comes to mainline IPOs, 78% of them listed above their issue price. Only 10 mainline IPOs listed at a discount. Out of these 10 IPOs, one sector appears twice - Banking and Finance. Two banks, Jana Small Finance Bank and Capital Small Finance Bank, fell 11.1% and 7.1% lower than their issue price on the listing day, respectively. 

    Worst performers: Two stocks from the banking & finance sector fall on listing day

    Despite listing at a discount, J G Chemicals and Jana Small Finance Bank recovered significantly and are now comfortably trading above their issue price.

    Consumer services and commercial services IPOs most successful, banking and finance sector disappoints

    The average listing gains/losses differ from sector to sector. In 2024, the Diversified Consumer Services sector saw the highest number of IPOs, followed by Banking and Finance, which was the favorite in 2023. 

    Banking & Finance IPOs disappoints in 2024 despite higher number of listings

    A total of five banking and finance companies listed in 2024 and the highest listing gain was for Go Digit General Insurance, which listed at a 12.5% premium to issue price. Two IPOs (Capital Small Finance Bank and Jana Small Finance Bank) listed at a discount to the issue price. 

    The Metals and Mining sector saw the highest average listing gains in 2024, thanks to the most successful main line IPO of 2024 - Vibhor Steel Tubes, which rose a staggering 195.5% premium to the issue price on the listing day. 

    But the aura around this stellar listing quickly faded and the stock has fallen sharply, while still trading comfortably above its issue price. 

    The 'list high, fall later' trend among IPOs

    A pattern of 'list high, fall later' is visible for the most successful IPOs. Among the top five IPOs of 2024, only one (JNK India) now trades above the listing day gain. All other four IPOs have fallen since listing day. Vibhor Steel and BLS E-Services have seen a sharp fall.

    If an investor had bought Vibhor Steel in the public market after seeing the high listing gain, they would be sitting at 44% losses now. Retail investors will have to be careful in assessing the IPOs both before and after listing. 

    Among the top five IPOs of 2024, only JNK India holds gains after listing

    With five months left in the year, India's IPO landscape is bustling with activity. Top IPOs that investors are waiting for include Hyundai Motor India, ACME Solar Holdings, and Hero FinCorp among others. Companies rushing to list is another signal of confidence in the Indian economy, but institutions could be gaining a lot more than retail investors in the IPO frenzy going on.


    Screener: IPOs with rising revenue and net profit in Q1FY25

    Banking IPOs see YoY growth in revenue and profit in Q1FY25

    With the end of the result season, we look at the top-performing mainline IPOs listed in 2024 in terms of revenue and net profit growth in Q1FY25. This screener shows IPOs listed in 2024 with rising revenue and net profit YoY for the quarter.

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the banking & finance, commercial services & supplies, and diversified consumer services sectors. Major stocks that appear in the screener are EPACK Durables, Rashi Peripherals, Bansal Wire Industries, Jana Small Finance Bank, Go Digit General Insurance, Entero Healthcare Services, Aadhar Housing Finance, and Juniper Hotels. 

    EPACK Durables has the highest revenue growth of 77.2% YoY to Rs 779.8 crore in Q1FY25, while its net profit rose by 168% YoY to Rs 23.4 crore during the quarter. This commercial electronics manufacturer’s revenue increased on the back of the commissioning of the Sri city manufacturing plant, and an improvement in the AC products segment. Its net profit growth was driven by revenue growth outpacing the rise in expenses. 

    Entero Healthcare Solutions also appears in the screener with its net profit improving the most, by 221.8% YoY to Rs 20.1 crore in Q1FY25. This healthcare services company’s revenue also grew by 22% YoY to Rs 1,110.5 crore, outperforming the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM)’s growth of 9% YoY during the quarter. Improvement in supply to retail pharmacies and hospitals led to revenue growth, whereas, net profit rise was on account of inventory destocking and lower finance costs.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    23 Aug 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 23, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 23, 2024

    1. Zomato: 

    This internet software & services company has risen 18.5% over the past month, driven by its plans to acquire One97 Communication’s (Paytm) entertainment ticketing business and positive Q1FY25 results. On Thursday, the company entered an agreement with Paytm to acquire its movie, sports, and events ticketing businesses for Rs 2,048 crore. On Tuesday, Antfin Singapore reportedly sold 20.7 lakh shares (or 2.2% stake) in Zomato worth $556 million (approx Rs 4,667.6 crore) in a block deal. 

    In FY24, Paytm’s entertainment ticketing business had a revenue of Rs 239.2 crore. Paytm will transfer the ticketing business to its subsidiaries, Wasteland Entertainment and Orbgen Technologies which will then be acquired by Zomato for Rs 783.8 crore and Rs 1,264.6 crore, respectively. At the company’s concall with Emkay, the Zomato management said that it believes going-out experiences will see strong growth, with traction in lifestyle and consumption. It expects the going-out segment’s gross order value (GOV) at more than Rs1 lakh crore in FY26 with a break-even EBITDA margin. 

    The stock had surged by 13.6% in two sessions after posting its Q1FY25 results on August 1, where its revenue and net profit grew by 71% YoY and 126.5x YoY to Rs 4,442 crore and Rs 253 crore, respectively. Both revenue and net profit beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 7.5% and 16%. Revenue got a boost from  improvements in the food ordering and delivery, Hyperpure supplies, and quick commerce (Blinkit) segments. The surge in net profit was led by lower overhead costs. 

    Deepinder Goyal, Founder & CEO of the company, was bullish on delivery, saying, “We expect the food delivery segment to grow by 25% YoY in FY25. EBITDA margin has been expanding over time and we expect it to reach the range of 5%. Food gross order value (GOV) grew 25%, going forward, we expect it to be closer to the industry average of 30%.”

    Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ call on Zomato with a higher target price of Rs 300 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 14.2%. The brokerage believes that on its own, the ticketing business could be a small part of Zomato’s business, but if executed correctly, could give Zomato strong revenue growth. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 37.6% over FY25-26.

    2. Central Depository Services (India):

    This depository company surged to a new 52-week high of Rs 1664.4 on Friday after rising 22.5% in the past week as it got board approval for a 1-for-1 issuance of bonus shares. Of the two depositories that operate in India, CDSL holds a leadership position with a market share of 77% as of June ‘24.

    In Q1FY25, the company reported revenue growth of 65% YoY to Rs 287 crore, exceeding Forecaster estimates by 3.5%. Net profit during the quarter went up by 82.4% YoY to Rs 134 crore, surpassing estimates by 2.3%. During the quarter, the company’s new account openings doubled YoY to 99 lakh, taking the total count above 12.5 crore.

    More than half of the revenue for CDSL comes from annual issuer income and transaction charges, which rose 21% and 108% on a YoY basis. Revenue from online data charges also doubled to Rs 53 crore. Meanwhile, revenue from IPO/corporate action charges almost tripled to Rs 27 crore, driven by a surge in new listings over the past year.

    MD and CEO, Nehal Vora, said, “India’s capital markets have experienced growth, benefiting from shifting investor preferences toward capital market investments.” He highlights the rapid growth in the number of new demat account openings as rising interest in the Indian equity market continues to attract new investors.

    Despite the outperformance, ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Hold’ rating on CDSL, noting that the lower regulatory risk for the company in comparison to brokerages or exchanges is already priced in and is reflected in its current valuation. Analysts forecast revenue and PAT CAGR of 23% over FY25-26 driven by continued growth in capital markets.

    3. DLF:

    This realty company has risen by over 3.4% in the past week. It announced its Q1FY25 results on July 25th, where the company’s net profit increased by 22.5% YoY to Rs 645.6 crore, while its revenue rose by 13.7% YoY, mainly due to a decline in expenses related to constructed properties and development rights. 

    The firm missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 11.5% and for net profit by 7.1%, due to an 83% YoY decline in Q4FY24 pre-sales resulting from a lack of new launches in that quarter. The stock appears in a screener for stocks with high momentum scores.

    The firm’s pre-sales in Q1 jumped to Rs 6,400 crore, compared to Rs 1,642 crore in Q4FY24. This surge in pre-sales was primarily driven by the successful launch of the second phase of its new project, Privana West in Gurugram. Ashok Tyagi, Whole Time Director of the firm, maintained his FY25 pre-sales guidance of Rs 16,000 crore and stated: “We are not officially re-guiding a higher number right now. But this guidance figure accounts for about 90%+ sale level on all other launches, and a small introductory sale level on Lux 5 (an ultra-luxury project of the company). Hopefully, that’s where more upside could come in.”

    The firm’s rental income in its commercial portfolio increased by 10% YoY to Rs 1,150 crore, led by the completion of its Downtown Chennai asset and a 40 bps rise in occupancy, which resulted in a 10% YoY increase in office rental income.

    Commenting on the rental business, Sriram Khattar, Vice Chairman and MD (Rental Business), said: “The increase in rental income is due to two factors: the annual accrual and the commencement of rentals for Downtown 1 and 2 in Chennai. While the exit guidance remains Rs 5,000 crore, the rental jump next year will be substantial with the inclusion of Downtown 4 in Gurgaon, Downtown 3 in Chennai, and full rentals for Downtown 1 and 2, resulting in a significant rise in FY26.”

    Motilal Oswal has maintained a “Neutral” rating on DLF, with a target price of Rs 850. The brokerage estimates an 8-10% CAGR growth in prices across its key markets of Gurugram, New Gurugram, Delhi, and Chandigarh. Based on these assumptions, it values the firm’s land parcel at Rs 1,10,900 crore. The brokerage adds that the firm’s current valuation already implies Rs 1,06,000 crore of value for its land, indicating limited upside potential. 

    4. Genus Power Infrastructures:

    This electric meter manufacturer surged 13.9% over the past week as it secured multiple orders worth Rs 6,534 crore from state electricity boards (SEBs) and private utilities. The orders include the design, supply, and installation of 80 lakh smart meters, as well as the design of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) systems.

    Genus Power has outperformed the consumer durables sector by 14.8% over the previous quarter. Its net profit rose 109.7% YoY to Rs 48.3 crore in Q1FY25, helped by inventory destocking. The firm’s EBITDA grew 2.3 times YoY to Rs 63.2 crores as margins expanded by 440 bps, helped by lower expenses. Revenue grew 57.5% YoY to Rs 441.2 crore during the quarter, but saw a marginal decline compared to the previous quarter due to seasonal fluctuations and delays caused by the Lok Sabha election.

    Genus Power holds an order book of Rs 28,000 crore, with Rs 25,000 crore attributed to the AMI segment through Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). This also includes contracts from various export customers and supply orders. Jitendra Agarwal, Joint Managing Director, said, "Of the Rs 25,000 crore AMI order book, around 70-75% flows back to Genus, while the rest is allocated to project financing and O&M activities. This order book is expected to be completed by mid-FY28, with a significant portion set to be executed within the next 24 months.”

    The company plans an equity infusion of Rs 1,700 crore into the platform over the next three to four years, with 20-25% of this amount expected in this year. Agarwal clarified that this infusion will not be purely from debt, as the company currently holds a cash reserve of approximately Rs 500-600 crore.

    ICICI Securities maintains its “Buy” rating with an upgraded target price of Rs 445. The brokerage anticipates improved raw material supply and a ramp-up in order execution, projecting a PAT CAGR of 125% over FY25-26.

    5. Techno Electric & Engineering Company: 

    This electric utilities company primarily generates wind power through wind turbine generators, and also specializes in engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) services. Its stock was a multibagger, surging 252.3% over the past year and rising 7.9% in the past week. 

    The company had delivered strong quarter results, as its net profit grew 288% YoY to Rs 98.1 crore in Q1FY25. Revenue rose 37% YoY to Rs 375.4 crore, driven by a 27.4% rise in the EPC/Engineering services segment. The company appears in a screener of stocks with quarterly growth in net profit with increasing profit margin. Ankit Saraiya, Whole-Time Director, noted that quarterly results vary due to the business cycle: Q1 usually contributes 15% of annual turnover, Q2 20%, Q3 30%, and Q4 35%.

    On August 19, the company hit a 5% upper circuit as it entered a partnership with Indigrid to set up two greenfield interstate transmission system (ISTS) projects. Under the partnership, Techno Electric co-developed and invested a minority stake in Indigrid's Ishanagar Power Transmission and Dhule Power Transmission. Saraiya also stated, “We are actively pursuing bids of over Rs 5,000 crore and are expecting to secure orders at least worth Rs 3,000 crore.”

    The company’s current unexecuted order book stands at approximately Rs 9,100 crore (a 146% YoY change), with a diverse portfolio that includes Rs 1,260 crore in generation, Rs 4,889 crore in transmission, Rs 2,776 crore in distribution, and Rs 175 crore in data center projects.The company serves both government and private sector clients with a focus on power, infrastructure, and industrial projects. It has also secured L1 status in additional orders worth Rs 1,200 crore, including two Power Grid Corp of India (PGCIL) projects in Nilgarh and Zerovi valued at Rs 478 crore, an Assam Gas Company (AGCL) order worth Rs 522 crore, and an Adani order of Rs 135 crore.

    Despite strong results and a robust order book, Emkay has initiated a 'Sell' rating with a target price of Rs 1,600. The brokerage anticipates that the company will benefit from a significant increase in the order book and favorable tailwinds. However, they downgraded the stock from 'Buy' to 'Sell' due to its current valuation and the recent sharp rise in the stock price. They expect revenue and EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 21% and 25%, respectively, over FY 25-27.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    22 Aug 2024
    Chart of the Week: Indian rupee holds steady despite big shifts in monetary policies across the globe

    Chart of the Week: Indian rupee holds steady despite big shifts in monetary policies across the globe

    By Satyam Kumar

    On August 5, 2024, the Indian rupee reached its all-time low of Rs 84.1, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and recession fears in the United States. Though the Indian rupee has hit its all-time low multiple times in the past year, the fall has been marginal, thanks to intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, limiting the losses. 

    High volatility can complicate trading and investing in the rupee, potentially increasing costs for businesses and investors. However, interventions by the central bank and optimism surrounding potential rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the rupee around the critical threshold of Rs 84. The chart above shows that over the past year, the Indian rupee has depreciated by only 0.8% against the US dollar, reflecting its relative stability compared to other currencies like the Brazilian real and the Russian ruble. The Euro and Australian dollar have risen over the past year driven by growing expectations that the Fed might soon begin cutting interest rates.

    RBI Governor, Shaktikanta Das, said, “It is always the priority of the RBI to ensure stability of Indian rupee.” This stability the governor talks of has been hard-won – a decade ago, the Indian rupee was one of Asia’s most volatile currencies. US-based Global Finance magazine has ranked Das as the top central banker globally for the second consecutive year, a ranking based on his success in managing inflation, promoting economic growth, and ensuring the currency’s stability while overseeing interest rate policies. 

    The governor’s job is a tightrope, in ensuring the economy’s stability while facing pressures from corporates and consumers around interest rates. And not everyone is pleased. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that excessive forex intervention has contributed to the rupee-dollar moving within a narrow range since December 2022 and reclassified India’s exchange rate regime to ‘stabilized arrangement’ from ‘floating’

    This week’s Chart of the Week examines the rupee’s performance among global currencies over the past year and the factors contributing to its improving stability over the past decade. 

    How does the Yen carry trade impact the Indian rupee?

    The yen carry trade, a popular strategy for over a decade, has been undergoing significant unwinding recently, affecting global markets, including India. This trade involves borrowing Japanese yen at the country’s very low interest rates (around 0.1%) and investing in higher-yielding assets abroad. However, the strategy has become less profitable due to recent changes in Japan’s monetary policy.

    On the 31st of July, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.25% from near-zero levels, and hinted at further hikes this year. Analysts also expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024, squeezing the differential between US-Japan interest rates and impacting profit margins further for those engaged in yen carry trades.

    The BoJ's rate hike has led to a sharp 8% appreciation of the yen over the past month. As the yen strengthens, it becomes more expensive for investors to maintain yen-funded positions, prompting a rapid unwinding of these trades. This shift has had a noticeable impact on India’s financial markets. Following the BoJ’s rate hike, India's benchmark index, Nifty50, experienced a significant sell-off, dropping over 1,000 points from its peak of 25,000 within just three trading days. This decline is partly attributed to the fact that 23% of total inflows into India since January 2023, amounting to $10.3 billion, were invested by participants in yen carry trades.

    US rate cuts: Potential boon for the Indian rupee

    The anticipated rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, expected to be around 75 bps in 2024, could, however, prove advantageous for the Indian rupee. Lower interest rates in the US often lead to increased foreign investment in emerging markets like India. As the interest rate differential between India and the US widens, India may become a more attractive investment destination compared to the US. 

    The expected inflow of foreign capital could further boost Indian markets. Foreign institutional investors, who had withdrawn from Indian markets as the US Fed started to hike interest rates, could return as the interest rate environment shifts.

    The lower US interest rates would also increase the availability of dollars, potentially leading to a softer dollar and a stronger rupee. A stronger rupee could benefit India by reducing its import bill, particularly for oil, which constitutes more than 80% of its total imports. A stronger rupee would help lower import costs, alleviate the current account deficit, and improve the fiscal deficit. A fiscal deficit represents the gap between how much the government earns and how much it spends. It would also make it cheaper for India to service its foreign debt.

    Strong economic growth coupled with RBI’s intervention has led to a stable rupee

    Volatility in the Indian rupee has fallen to a decade-low

    Even though the Indian rupee has consistently weakened against the dollar over the past decade, the volatility has significantly decreased over time. This relative stability can be attributed to robust economic growth, consistent policy measures, and political stability coupled with RBI intervention whenever needed. Continuity in the Central government after the recent elections in June has boosted the confidence of foreign investors. Key reforms, such as assigning an inflation-target mandate to the central bank and reducing the budget deficit, have further supported this stability. India now boasts the world’s fourth-largest pile of foreign reserves.

    By buying dollars when the rupee strengthens and selling foreign exchange when it weakens, the RBI has moderated significant currency fluctuations. This intervention helps smooth out the value of the rupee by managing the supply of dollars in the market.

    However, the RBI's approach has its limitations. The central bank's interventions can sometimes mask changes in economic fundamentals, meaning that strong growth, which usually supports currency strength, might not always translate into a stronger rupee if the RBI continues to buy dollars.

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    The Baseline
    20 Aug 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 20 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 20 2024

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. PCBL:

    ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this black carbon manufacturer with a target price of Rs 500, indicating a potential upside of 18.1%. Analysts Chirag Shah and Shashank Kanodia highlight the recent acquisition of Aquapharm Chemicals, which reported a Q1FY25 EBITDA of Rs 55 crore with 75% capacity utilization. Shah and Kanodia said, “Aquapharm’s performance is promising, with EBITDA expected to rise to Rs 80-90 crore by Q4FY25.”

    PCBL reported net sales of Rs 2,144 crore in Q1FY25, with carbon black sales volumes reaching 154 KT, up 25% YoY. Net profit for the quarter was Rs 118 crore, supported by the highest-ever EBITDA of Rs 358 crore. The company’s near-term capacity expansion aims to increase carbon black production to 10 lakh tonnes, with further medium-term plans for an additional 4 lakh tonnes. 

    Shah and Kanodia note that the company targets a five times increase in PAT, reaching Rs 2,500 crore by FY29. They also highlight strong export performance, with export volumes reaching 21% of total sales in Q1FY25 and expected to grow to 45% by FY27, supporting robust long-term growth.

    2. Ipca Laboratories:

    Sharekhan upgrades its rating on this pharma company to ‘Buy’ with a higher target price of Rs 1,600. This indicates a potential upside of 15.6%. The company's Q1FY25 sales grew 32.9% YoY to Rs 2,092 crore. The analyst attributes this growth to the integration of the Unichem business, and strong domestic and international sales. IPCA has surpassed the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) growth of 8-9% with a 11.6% increase in the domestic brand. The company appears in a screener of stocks that have outperformed their respective industry over the past month.

    Unichem's integration is expected to add to profitability, with EBITDA set to reach Rs 225 crore by FY25 from Rs 100 crore in FY24. The company plans to launch 4-5 new products in the US market in FY25 and expand its international presence. Bayshore, now part of Unichem, will handle distribution of IPCA’s US products.

    Analysts highlight the company’s promising growth prospects, driven by strong API demand and capacity expansion. It has set up a new 50MT API plant at Ratlam, nearing commercialization. Despite short-term cost pressures, new plants and increased formulation opportunities are expected to drive future growth.

    3. EPL:

    Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this plastic packaging company with a target price of Rs 275, indicating an upside of 9.7%. In Q1FY25, the company’s net profit grew 18% YoY to Rs 64.2 crore, and revenue increased by 10.2% YoY to Rs 1,013 crore. According to analyst Sumant Kumar, improved operating performance in the US and Europe drove profits higher. The EBITDA margin grew by 610 bps to 15.8% in the US region.

    Revenue growth was driven by broad-based regional performance, and a 6% YoY increase in the personal care segment, which now contributes 47% to total revenue. Kumar also highlights the company’s strong momentum in Brazil, where new customer acquisitions are driving the Brazil plant's utilization rate to 65-70%. He expects the firm to post revenue CAGR of 8% and adjusted net profit CAGR of 30% over FY25-26.

    EPL is experiencing significant demand for sustainable products, with the share of sustainable tubes rising to 29% of total volume in Q1FY25, up from 21% in Q1FY24. The company aims to sustain double-digit growth with margins exceeding 20%.

    4. Hindalco Industries:

    Axis Direct has reaffirmed its ‘Buy’ rating for Hindalco Industries, a key player in aluminum and aluminum products, with a target price of Rs 715, indicating a potential upside of 6.3%. In Q1FY25 the company's net profit rose 25.3% YoY to Rs 3,074 crore, driven by higher EBITDA. Its operating revenue increased 7.6% YoY to Rs 57,013 crore, fueled by higher sales from its upstream and aluminium business, and copper business segments.

    Analyst Aditya Welekar highlights that the downstream capex for its extrusion plant in Silvassa, Gujarat and flat rolled products (FRP) plant in Odisha is nearly complete and is expected to operate at full capacity from Q4FY25. For upstream projects, alumina expansion in Odisha will commence first, followed by the Copper smelter (280-300 kt) and a 180-pot Aluminium smelter (180 ktpa) expansion in Aditya with RE-RTC power. Each of these projects will have a capex of Rs 8,000 crore.The company is also in the process of securing Stage I & II forest clearances. It owns several key assets, including the Chakla coal mine (5.5 mtpa), Meenakshi West (5 mtpa), and Meenakshi mine (12 mtpa).  Welekar anticipates that the company's expansion projects will result in EBITDA and revenue growth of 6% and 7.7 % respectively for FY25-26, with PAT and EPS growth of 11% over the same period

    5. Fineotex Chemical:

    KRChoksey retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this small cap Fineotex Chemical with a target price of Rs 529, indicating a potential upside of 44.5%. This specialty chemicals company reported a net profit of Rs 28.8 crore in Q1FY25, a 12% rise YoY. Revenue grew 7.3% YoY to Rs 146.8 crore, although it declined by 7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) due to lower realizations, while volume growth was maintained, according to analyst Unnati Jadhav.

    Jadhav highlights that during the quarter, the company allotted 9.7 lakh fully paid-up equity shares and issued 26.3 lakh share warrants, each convertible into one equity share, were issued at Rs 346 per share. The company raised a total of Rs 56.2 crore this quarter. An additional round of 28.2 lakh equity shares and warrants, both priced at Rs 387.4 per share, has also been announced, totaling Rs 192.5 crore.

    Jadhav notes multiple triggers coming into play for next year such as increasing cotton demand, inorganic international opportunities and the expansion of cleaning and hygiene segment. She expects EPS estimates for FY 25-26 to be Rs 13.7 and Rs 17.5, respectively, with a revenue CAGR of 23% and a PAT CAGR of 32% over the same period.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    16 Aug 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 16, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 16, 2024

    1. Voltas:

    This consumer electronics company surged 10.8% on Monday after announcing Q1 results that beat estimates on all fronts. The company reported revenue growth of 45.8% YoY, reaching Rs 5,001.3 crore in Q1FY25, surpassing Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimate by 9%. Net profit rose 158.5% YoY to Rs 334.2 crore, beating the estimate by 35.9%.

    If we look at the revenue mix, the company’s cooling products segment, which contributed more than 75% to its topline, saw volume growth of 67%. The heat waves drove demand up during the peak summer months, powering the segment’s revenue higher by 51% on a YoY basis. The electro-mechanical projects segment also saw revenue growth of 40% YoY to Rs 949 crore.

    Voltas saw its market share fall to 18.7% in FY24 in air conditioners, down from 21.6% in FY23. Meanwhile, its major competitor Blue Star’s market share rose by 25 bps to 13.8%.and hopes to drive it higher by 100 bps every year. 

    In its latest annual report, the company projects the overall AC market to grow at a CAGR of 10% in FY25-28. Managing Director and CEO, Pradeep Bakshi, said, “The company has begun the groundwork to set up a manufacturing plant in Tamil Nadu to cater the rising demand for ACs which has grown by 75% in the past few quarters.” He highlights that this facility will have a manufacturing capacity of 2 million cooling units and focus mainly on southern and western India.

    BOB Capital Markets maintains its ‘Hold’ rating on Voltas as they are optimistic about future growth, considering the under penetration of ACs in India. They are also upbeat about the growth outlook of its home appliances brand ‘Voltas Beko’ which manufactures fridges, washing machines, etc. as it achieved 12% of sales from e-commerce channels in FY24.

    2. Signatureglobal (India):

    This realty company has risen 296.8% since its listing on September 23 of last year and has surged 8.9% in the past week following its results announcement on August 7. The company reported a net profit of Rs 6.8 crore in Q1FY25 compared to a net loss of Rs 7.2 crore in Q1FY24. Its operating revenue grew 141.5% YoY to Rs 400.6 crore, driven by a 148% YoY rise in sales in the real estate segment. It beat Forecaster revenue estimates by 92.6%.

    Revenue growth was driven by the company’s pre-sales, which reached Rs 3,120 crore in Q1FY25, marking a remarkable growth of 255% YoY with a 63% CAGR in pre-sales over FY21-24. Pradeep Kumar Aggarwal, Chairman and Whole-Time Director, said, "In the first quarter itself, we have achieved 30% of our annual pre-sales target. We are planning to launch a few projects over the coming quarters, which are likely to boost our operational targets.” The growth is primarily due to the successful launch of Phase 1 of the group housing project 'TITANIUM SPR' in Sector 71, Gurgaon – the project has accounted for 87% of sales.

    The company plans to increase its launches by four-fold YoY to 32 million sq. ft. (msf) worth Rs 16,000 crore in FY25 (from Rs 4,200 crore in FY24). Some of the existing projects in the pipeline for FY25 include premium projects in Gurgaon at Sector 71, Sector 84 and Sector 37D, worth Rs 8,700 crore, as well as mid-income projects with independent floors at Sohna, Haryana with gross development value (GDV) of approximately Rs 5,800 crore. Additionally, the company will launch industrial plot projects at Sohna and Manesar in Haryana, worth Rs 1,500 crore.

    In Q4FY24 Signatureglobal had launched its first premium project, Deluxe-DXP at Sector 37D in Gurugram, which sold out in 48 hours. Its second high-priced project also received a strong response, with 85% of inventory sold at launch.

    Motilal Oswal has initiated a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 2,000. The brokerage believes that the strong pre-sales growth will lead to a rapid scale-up across key parameters, such as cash flows, revenue and profitability, enhancing the company’s execution capability and future growth potential. The firm expects the growth momentum to remain intact and estimates that Signatureglobal will deliver a 35% CAGR in bookings over FY25-27.

    3. FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa): 

    This internet retail company rose over 1% after its net profit surged 191.9% YoY to Rs 9.6 crore in Q1FY25. Revenue rose 22.8% YoY to Rs 1,746.1 crore during the quarter, driven by growth in the beauty & personal care (BPC) and fashion segments. The company’s revenue was in line with Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates, but profit missed estimates by 43.5%. 

    During the quarter, Nykaa’s GMV (gross merchandise value) grew 25% YoY, with the BPC segment’s (constituting over 76% of the total GMV) GMV rising 28%. Nykaa’s owned brands GMV grew 47% YoY in Q1. The fashion segment (which makes up 23% of the total GMV) saw its GMV increase by 15% YoY in a highly competitive space. Analysts noted that fashion GMV growth was slower compared to 27% in Q4FY24, due to a drop in store visits, and slower demand amid fewer wedding dates during the quarter. Nykaa provided discounts across its beauty and fashion categories due to the lack of festivities, but expects discounts to moderate in Q3 and Q4 as demand picks up in the festive season.

    Meanwhile, Nykaa continued to expand its retail network, with stores reaching the 200 mark. During the quarter, the company announced the acquisition of an additional 39% stake in Dot & Key Wellness for Rs 265.3 crore. With this, company's stake will increase from 51% to 90%. Earlier in March the e-commerce company entered the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) Beauty space, under the brand Nysaa. GCC Beauty is estimated to be a $30 billion market and the company expects this to be a significant growth driver in the future.

    Nykaa increased its warehouse count to 44 in Q1, with an aim to improve its delivery timelines. Falguni Nayar said, “Given the investments we have made in the space, our key objective is to improve consumer experiences by getting the product into the consumer’s hands faster. We aim to deliver 70–80% of orders placed in major cities and 50% of other cities, on the same day or the next day by September”.

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Add’ rating with a target price of Rs 210. The brokerage remains cautious on the company and believes success in the fashion business can be difficult given the intense competition in the category. 

    4. Aurobindo Pharma: 

    This pharmaceuticals company rose by 4.1% in three sessions after posting its Q1FY25 results on Saturday. Its revenue increased by 10.5% YoY to Rs 7,567 crore, in line with Forecaster estimates, driven by improvements in the US, Europe, and in rest of the world (ROW) formulations, as well as a rise in the active pharmaceutical ingredient segment. 

    The company’s stock price rose by 4.5% on August 7 after it received final approval from the US FDA to manufacture and market Estradiol Vaginal Inserts. The drug is a generic equivalent of Novo Nordisk’s VAGIFEM, and has an estimated market size of $268 million. However, it pared its gains on Friday and fell 2% after the US FDA issued a warning letter for its Eugia II formulations manufacturing plant.

    Aurobindo’s net profit grew by 61.5% YoY to Rs 919.2 crore, backed by reduced raw material costs. However, net profit still missed Forecaster estimates by 3.1%. The US formulations segment (which contributes to 47% of total revenue) witnessed just 8% revenue growth YoY. Growth was helped by improvements in specialty and injectables. 

    Growth was muted and in single digits due to the remedial actions taken by the company after the US FDA issued an official action indicated (OAI) status on its Eugia III plant. The rest of the world (ROW) formulations experienced a 49.2% YoY rise in revenue during the quarter, led by new product launches. 

    The company has been rapped on the knuckles multiple times by the FDA this year, and received multiple Form 483s or its Eugia plant in India since December 2023. This has resulted in a hit of $30-40 million in its revenue in Q4FY24 and Q1FY25, combined with a remediation cost of $8-9 million for the plant. These consistent issues have led to the company posting a 3-year revenue CAGR of 5.5%, which is lower than its competitors like Cipla (10.9%), Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (14.3%) and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (13.2%). As a result, the company has developed the Vizag plant as a back-up and expects US FDA approval by the end of FY25. Puvvala Yugandhar, CEO of Eugia, expects the plant to be running at full capacity from Q2FY25 onwards.

    Speaking on the company’s results, its Vice-Chairman and MD, K Nithyananda Reddy, says, “Our EBITDA margin remained at 21.4% and is in line with expectations. EBITDA margins are supported by stable raw material prices. We are confident in our ability to achieve our EBITDA growth target of 21-22% for FY25. We also expect the current pricing scenario in the US market to continue.” 

    Post results, Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on the company with a higher target price of Rs 1,612 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 7.3%. The brokerage remains confident about the stock due to its new launches in the US formulations and planned entry into biosimilars, peptides, and contract development & manufacturing organizations (CDMO) services. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 5.7% over FY25-26.

    5. Oil India:

    This oil exploration and production company rose by 10.6% over the past week after the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas approved a 20% premium on gas prices from new wells. Oil India plans to grow its gas output by 50% over FY25-26, building gas production infrastructure to increase domestic production.

    The company’s net profit rose 32.2% YoY to Rs 1,885.8 crore, helped by inventory destocking. Revenue grew 30.9% YoY to Rs 9,350 crore in Q1FY25, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 70%. The Gross Refining Margin (GRM) of Numaligarh Refinery (NRL) stood at $6.4 per barrel in Q1FY25, compared to a negative margin of $15.6 per barrel in Q1FY24. 

    Analysts predict that the GRM across the industry will decline to $6-8 per barrel in FY25, down from an average of $10-12 per barrel in FY24 – a narrowing discount on Russian crude and a decrease in the profit margin from selling refined products are impacting GRMs.

    The company’s NRL expansion project, with a total cost of Rs 28,000 crore, has achieved 65% progress and is expected to be completed by December 2025. CFO Rupam Baura said “Once the new capacity is installed, we expect it to operate at around 50-60% in the first year, gradually ramping up to 90% by the second year. This expansion will increase the refinery’s capacity from 3 MMTPA to 9 MMTPA.” The firm plans to build a gas pipeline to connect the stranded North Brahmaputra fields which has a capacity of 3 bcm, equivalent to FY24 gas production.

    Post results, Prabhudas Lilladher has upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ with a raised target price of Rs 766. This indicates a potential upside of 13%. It remains positive about the NRL expansion, expecting it to boost gas production. Prabhudas Lilladher predicts that Oil India will see volume CAGRs of 8% for oil and 16% for gas over FY25-26.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    14 Aug 2024, 05:48PM
    Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q1FY25?

    Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q1FY25?

    By Melissa Koshy

    Investments by superstar investors like RARE Enterprises, Ashish Kacholia, Sunil Singhania, and Vijay Kedia are closely tracked by investors for valuable insights into the market. Their buys and sells help investors identify interesting sectors and stocks. Here we look at the sells made by these superstar investors during Q1FY25.

    The chart below shows the changes in superstar investors' current portfolio net worth. Note that net worth reflects both changes in current holdings as well as new buys and sells. 

    Some superstar investors see their net worth rise in Q1FY25

    Previously, we looked at the key superstar buys in Q1FY25. Now, let's analyse their sells. During the latest quarter, most superstars went on a selling spree as many stocks hit sky-high valuations, and adjusted their holdings in key sectors. The following chart shows their biggest sells during this period. 

    Biggest sells by superstars in Q1FY25

    RARE Enterprises makes minor stake sales 

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio made some cuts, but with a cautious knife. The portfolio, currently managed by Rekha Jhunjhunwala and investment firm RARE Enterprises, cut minor stakes in multiple companies. The portfolio’s net worth grew 4.5% to Rs 50,586.1 crore after Q1FY25.

    Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio pares minor stakes in multiple companies

    In the April-June quarter, the late big bull’s portfolio cut a 0.2% stake in internet software company Nazara Technologies, and now holds an 8.37% stake. Its share price rose by 37.3% in the past year, underperforming its industry by 71.1 percentage points. This is the third consecutive quarter the portfolio has reduced its stake in the company. RARE also cut a 0.2% stake in edible oils maker Agro Tech Foods, taking the holding to 7.3%. Previously, it held an 8.1% stake in the firm since Q1FY24 before reducing it to 7.5%. 

    During the latest quarter, RARE reduced a minor 0.1% stake each in bank stocks — Federal Bank, and Karur Vysya Bank. It now holds 2.5% and 4.27%, respectively, in the banks. 

    RARE Enterprises also sold a 0.1% stake each in other industrial goods firm Raghav Productivity Enhancers, other financial services company Crisil, capital markets stock Geojit Financial, and pharmaceuticals firm Jubilant Pharmova during the quarter. The portfolio now holds 5%, 5.36%, 7.2%, and 6.57%, respectively, in these companies. 

    Ashish Kacholia goes on a selling spree

    Does Ashish Kacholia know something that we don’t, about the stock market? His net worth fell by 15.9% to Rs 2,847.1 crore after Q1FY25 as he pulled back on multiple stocks. The investor, who is usually a bullish player in midcap and smallcap stocks, reduced his stakes inAdor Welding to below 1% from 4.2% in Q4FY24. The Industrial goods company’s share price rose by 16.8% in the past year underperforming its sector by 128.9 percentage points. 

    Kacholia sells stakes in multiple companies

    The marquee investor also reduced his stake in the non-ferrous metals company Gravita India to below 1% compared to 2.2% in Q4FY24. This company is in a strong PE sell zone with its promoter holdings decreasing from 66.48% in Q4FY24 to 63.37% in Q1FY25.

    Kacholia also cut his stake to below 1% each in apparels & accessories company Vaibhav Global, finance company Ugro Capital, industrial machinery company HLE Glascoat, iron & steel products retailer Shankara Building Products, and restaurants chain Barbeque-Nation Hospitality.

    He reduced his stakes in other companies – 0.7% in Shaily Engineering Plastics, 0.5% in Garware Hi-Tech Films, 0.4% in Repro India, 0.1% in NIIT Learning Systems, 0.2% in Ami Organics and 0.3% in Aditya Vision. He also sold 0.8% each in PCBL and Sastasundar Ventures during the quarter. A likely reason for Kacholia’s multiple sells is the soaring valuations in the midcap and smallcap space. 

    Raging bull market can be trouble some for experienced investors https://t.co/QZDIgoNgdo

    — Ashish Kacholia (@LuckyInvest_ARK) June 28, 2024

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund adjusts holdings in key sectors

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fundsaw its net worth fall 10.3% to Rs 2,741 crore after Q1FY25. The fund reduced its stake in Route Mobile to below 1% during the quarter, after holding a 2.4% stake in the internet services & software company in Q4FY24. Its share price has risen marginally by 0.7% over the past year, underperforming its industry by 107.6 percentage points. It also reduced its stake in PSP Projects, a construction and engineering company, to below 1% from 1.5% in Q4FY24.

    Singhania trims his stake in Route Mobile and PSP Projects to below 1%

    Singhania’s fund also trimmed its stake in IIFL Securities by 0.2%, now holding 3.1% of the capital markets company. It sold a 0.1% stake in Mastek and now holds 3% in the IT consulting & software company. 

    Abakkus cut a 0.09% stake in the construction & engineering company HG Infra Engineering. It now holds 1.35% compared to 1.44% in Q4FY25. Its share price rose by 60.3% in the past year, underperforming its industry by 33 percentage points. 

    Vijay Kedia cuts stakes in three companies

    Vijay Kedia reduced his holdings in three companies in Q1FY25, with stakes below 1% in two companies. His net worth dropped 12.8% to Rs 1,615.2 crore since the end of Q1FY25. During the quarter he reduced his stake to below 1% in auto parts & equipment manufacturer Talbros Automotive Components and in electric utilities company Reliance Infrastructure from 1% each in Q4FY24. Over the past year, its share price increased by 28.8%, underperforming its industry by  82.

    Kedia reduces stakes in Talbros Auto, Reliance Infra to below 1%

    Kedia also cut his stake in Patel Engineering to 1.4% from 1.6% in Q4 FY24. The ace investor had added the construction & engineering company to his portfolio in Q4FY23, by buying a 1.3% stake. The company’s share price has fallen by 7.6% over the past quarter.

    Dolly Khanna cuts stakes in four companies 

    Dolly Khannareduced her holdings in four companies in Q1FY25, including one where her stake fell below 1%. Her net worth has increased by 4.2% to Rs 608.4. crore since the end of Q1FY25. During the quarter, she reduced her stake in Salzer Electronics (an other electrical equipment/ products manufacturer) to below 1%, from the 1% held in Q4FY24. She added the firm to her portfolio in Q2FY24 by buying a 1.1% stake but reduced her holding to 1% in Q3. Over the past year, Salzer has risen by 195.6%, underperforming its industry by 978.4 percentage points. 

    Dolly Khanna pares stakes in Salzer Electronics, Deepak Spinners and others

    During the April-June quarter, Dolly Khanna cut her stake in Deepak Spinners by 0.7% to 1.04%. She held a 1.77% stake in the small-cap textiles company in Q4FY24. 

    The ace investor reduced 0.1% stake each in National Oxygen and Control Print, taking her holding to 1.16% and 1.1%, respectively, in the industrial gases and computer hardware companies. 

    Porinju Veliyath cuts stakes in two companies in Q1

    Porinju V Veliyath’s net worth increased by 17.3% to Rs 224.2 crore after Q4FY24. During the quarter, he reduced his stakes in two companies. Porinju cut a 0.2% stake in Mitsu Chem Plast, taking his holding to 1.5%. He added the containers & packaging firm to his portfolio in Q4FY24 by buying a 1.7% stake. Over the past year, the company’s share price has declined by 25.2%, underperforming its industry by 85.8 percentage points. 

    Porinju pares stakes in Kaya and Mitsu Chem

    During the latest quarter, the marquee investor reduced a minor stake (0.1%) in special consumer services company Kaya, taking his holding to 2.9%. He has consistently held a 3% stake for a year since Q4FY23. The company has an expensive valuation with a score of 19.7, but a moderately bullish momentum score of 63.7. 

    Mohnish Pabrai reduces stake in a realty company to below 1% 

    Mohnish Pabrai’s net worth fell by 81.1% to Rs 92.5 crore after Q1FY25, and publicly holds just one company currently. During the quarter, he reduced his holding in Sunteck Realty to below 1%, from 2.2% in Q4FY24.  He consistently held a 6.7% stake in the company since Q1FY23, before reducing it to 2.2% in the March quarter. The realty company’s share price has risen by 58.5% over the past year but underperformed its industry by 60.4 percentage points.

    Pabrai trims stakes in two companies in Q1

    During Q1, Pabrai cut his stake in Edelweiss Financial Services by 3.9%, taking his holding to 1.2%. He held a 5.1% stake in the other financial services company in Q4FY24. Over the past quarter, Edelweiss has risen by 9.9%, underperforming its industry’s 22.9% growth.

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    The Baseline
    14 Aug 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 14 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 14 2024

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Maruti Suzuki India:

    KRChoksey maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this cars and utility vehicles manufacturer with a target price of Rs 14,148, indicating a potential upside of 15.3%.  The stock is currently in a strong PE buy zone. The company saw a strong performance in Q1FY25, where its net profit rose 48.9% YoY to Rs 3,759.7 crore, driven by cost reduction initiatives, favorable commodity prices and foreign exchange rate. Revenue grew 10.6% YoY to Rs 36,839.9 crore.

    Analyst Unnati Jadhav says, “The growth was primarily driven by strong export sales which increased by 11.6% YoY, with Jimny being the highest exported vehicle during the quarter.” She notes the company’s plans to double its production to 4 million vehicles by FY30-31 from the current level of 2.2 million.

    Jadhav anticipates that stronger rural markets will drive increased demand for hatchbacks, as the company aims to boost exports and CNG sales. Revenue, EBITDA, and adjusted PAT are expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.5%, 9.4%, and 12.6%, respectively, over FY25-FY26, as margins continue to improve.

    2. Coal India:

    ICICI Direct makes a ‘Buy’ call on this coal mining and production company with a target price of Rs 650 and a potential upside of 24.6%. The company reported a net profit of Rs 10,959.5 crore for Q1FY25, up 37.5% YoY. This increase was driven by lower material costs, reduced employee benefits, and decreased inventory. Its revenue grew 2.2% YoY to Rs 38,349.2 crore. Coal India is classified a strong performer as shown by its DVM score.

    Analyst Shashank Kanodia and Manisha Kesari note that the company is expanding its portfolio into new areas, including coal gasification through JV agreements with BHEL and GAIL, investments in thermal power such as Mahanadi Basin Power and exploring acquisitions of critical mineral assets both domestically and internationally. They remain optimistic about Coal India, citing strong volume growth prospects, ongoing diversification into emerging sectors, a healthy net cash positive balance sheet, and dividend yield of approximately 5%. Analysts expect coal production to grow at an 11% CAGR from FY25 to FY26 to 950 metric tonne (MT) by FY26, and anticipate a 7% CAGR growth in sales and PAT over the same period.

    3. Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS):

    Edelweiss retains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS) setting a target price of Rs 2,560, suggesting a potential upside of 15.2%. This healthcare facilities company posted a 7.2% YoY increase in net profit to Rs 86.6 crore and a 13.8% YoY rise in revenue to Rs 693 crore in Q1 FY25. Analysts Thakur Ranvir Singh and Pawan Bhatia say,”Growth in revenue was helped by 21% YoY rise in ARPOB, 8% YoY growth in IP volume and 10% rise in OP volume”.

    KIMS plans to add approximately 1,800 beds in two years through various greenfield and brownfield plans. Analysts highlight that the company is on track to commence operations at its Nasik unit (300-beds) and newly acquired 200-bed multi-specialty Queen’s NRI Hospital (QNRI) at Vizag in Q2FY25, which is expected to improve performance in H2FY25.

    Singh and Bhatia believe the company has a strong expansion plan for the next 3 years, anticipating an increase in the total bed capacity to approximately 6,300 in FY27 from 3,975 in FY24. They retain their FY25 estimates, with a revenue, EBITDA, PAT CAGR of 23%, 22%, 19% respectively for FY 25-26. They also revised theirFY26 revenue, EBITDA and PAT forecasts upwards  by 6%, 5%, 8% due to the addition of new beds.

    4. Oil And Natural Gas Corporation:

    Emkay maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this exploration and production company with a target price of Rs 360. This indicates an upside of 7.2%. The company has received approval for the restructuring of its ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) project. The government has approved a Rs 10,501 crore investment in OPaL, including financial support for raw materials, with gas priced up to 20% above the Administered Price Mechanism (APM).

    ONGC reported a revenue growth of 19% YoY to Rs 1,69,562.3 crore in Q1FY25, but missed the Forecaster estimates by 5.8%. The revenue increase was driven by higher crude sales, while lower gas output impacted results. ONGC Videsh (OVL) saw costs reduce due to a shift in royalty payments from cash to kind, though production remained unchanged.

    Analysts Sabri Hazarika, Harsh Maru, and Arya Patel are optimistic about ONGC’s investment in green energy, targeting 10GW by CY30, and its plans to expand gas production capacity by developing new wells throughout the year. They anticipate positive developments in premium gas pricing and a boost from increased capex for Mozambique projects.

    5. Tech Mahindra:

    Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades this IT consulting firm to ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 1,645, indicating a potential upside of 9.4%. The company’s EBITDA margin improved by 180 bps, and lower interest expenses supported net profit growth in Q1FY25. However, revenue dropped 1.2% YoY to Rs 13,006 crore, impacted by the communications segment.

    The company introduced TechM VerifAI, a framework for validating AI systems, and developed over 100 AI solutions. During the quarter, Tech Mahindra expanded its workforce by 2,165 employees, and continued strategic initiatives like Project Fortius and Turbocharge to enhance margins. The analyst says, “The company's investment in AI and its workforce expansion, coupled with cost-saving initiatives, should  yield enhanced margins and drive growth in the manufacturing segment”. Additionally, they anticipate stable demand in the BFSI segment, as the company continues to explore new opportunities with existing clients. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here

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    The Baseline
    13 Aug 2024
    COTW: When it comes to the Olympic race, India lags in medals to GDP ratio

    COTW: When it comes to the Olympic race, India lags in medals to GDP ratio

    By Satyam Kumar

    The Paris 2024 Summer Olympics ended with Indian athletes winning a total of six medals (one silver, five bronze) –three in shooting, and a medal each in hockey, wrestling, and athletics (javelin). 

    Successful Olympic athletes like Abhinav Bindra and Neeraj Chopra have won golds in the past and have become national heroes, inspiring others. Rifle shooter Abhinav Bindra was the first Indian to win an Olympic gold medal in an individual event at Beijing in 2008 and was the only one to do so for over a decade before Neeraj’s javelin triumph at Tokyo in 2020.

    Last year in October, Prime Minister Modi expressed hopes that India would host the Olympics in 2036, pledging to leave no stone unturned in the effort. However, there is still a lot of work to be done if we want to get a piece of the global sports action.

    The International Monetary Fund in May projected that India will surpass Japan to become the 4th largest economy in the world in terms of nominal GDP in 2025. With a growth rate of over 7%, India will very likely become the third largest economy in the coming years. However our performance in the Olympics is a different story. 

    India stands last in terms of number of medals to GDP ratio in the 2024 Olympics, at 0.05 medals for every $100 billion in GDP.

    In this week’s Chart of the Week, we explore why India lags so far behind in global sports. Countries like the United States, China, and Australia dominate the medal tally, and even smaller developing nations like Jamaica, Mexico, and Brazil are far ahead of us.

    An Olympic medal is a rarity in India: one per 250 million people

    India ranks last in medal density among the most populous nations

    In 2023, India beat China to become the most populous country in the world, with over 1.4 billion people. More than half of the population is under the age of 25, and the average age in India is 29 years, compared to 37 in China and 48 in Japan. 

    You would imagine that this kind of demographics would produce hundreds of thousands of talented Indian athletes. 

    But despite  having the highest youth population, only 117 Indians went to compete in the Olympics this year. China in comparison, sent around 388 people who participated in a total of 33 events. From the above chart, it is clear that qualifying for the Olympics events and winning medals is very rare for India. If we look at the tally this year, India has won only one medal per 250 million people, which translates to 0.004 medals per million people. Meanwhile, countries like the United States, Japan and Brazil won 0.38, 0.36 and 0.10 medals respectively per million people.

    Sports: A neglected field in terms of government spending

    Budget allocation for sports has been below 0.1% for the past decade

    The percentage of the total budget allocated to the Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports, which oversees sports, games, and youth welfare programs, is abysmal. For over a decade, this allocation has remained below 0.1% of the total budget. This underinvestment could be a major reason why a country with the largest youth population ranks 71 in terms of medal tally in the 2024 Olympics.

    Over the past decade, the government has launched various initiatives to promote sports in India. To enhance Olympic and Paralympic performance, the Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports introduced the Target Olympic Podium Scheme (TOPS) in 2014. It ensures that a ‘core group of athletes’ have all necessary, personalised support in terms of foreign exposure, hiring of specific coaches, training and competition abroad.

    In 2018, another program was launched by the name “Khelo India Program” which aimed at reviving the sporting culture in India at the grassroots. It has been more than five years since the programme was launched, and has seen participation of around 20,000 athletes. 3,000 athletes identified as Khelo India Athletes are currently training at Khelo India Academies, and are given an out-of-pocket allowance of Rs 10,000 per month.

    A lot of noise, but not enough money: China spends ten times more than India on sports

    At the outset, it looks like the government has only revamped the names of various sports programs but changed little else. For instance, Sports Authority of India (SIA) centers have been renamed Khelo India Academies, but little to no effort have been put into increasing the budget allocation.

    India has aims to become a developed nation by 2047. To compete globally at a level that reflects our rising economic strength, India needs substantial investment in infrastructure and athlete development. In the FY25 Budget, the government has allocated Rs 3,442 crore for the development of sports, which translates to approx. $410 million. In comparison,, China spent around $3.2 billion in 2023, and has plans to spend around $1 billion in 2024.

    The cause of our medal drought is clear: sports in India is severely underfunded and has failed to  keep up with other nations. The government's ambitious goal of hosting the Olympics in 2036 may not materialze if we don’t do a big overhaul, in funding as well as infra and training for young athletes. 

    To excel on the global stage and nurture our talent, the Indian government needs to step up to the plate. Else we will continue to finish dead last in the race.

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