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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    08 Mar 2023
    Five analyst picks this week

    Five analyst picks this week

    By Abhiraj Panchal
    1. Ceat: Motilal Oswal reiterates a ‘Buy’ call on this tyre manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,860. This indicates an upside of 28.8%. After visiting its Halol facility and an overview of its research and development centre, analysts Jinesh Gandhi, Amber Shukla and Aniket Desai say the company has showcased its capabilities to scale international business to Rs 35 billion and explore electric vehicles. The tyre manufacturer also indicates improved efficiency at the Halol plant.

    According to the analysts, “Cyclical recovery in both OEMs and replacement will enable faster absorption of new capacities and drive operating leverage benefits. This, coupled with softening raw material prices, would help a partial recovery in margins in FY23 and full recovery in FY24.” They remain optimistic as the company continues to focus on key strategic areas as well as expansion in international markets and electric vehicles. In addition, they believe prudent capex plans to be long-term catalysts for Ceat.

    1. KSB: ICICI Direct retains its ‘Buy’ call on this industrial machinery and pump manufacturer company with a target price of Rs 2,390, indicating an upside of 23.3%. According to an institutional investor call arranged by KSB and ICICI Securities on February 28, 2023, the company’s profit has grown 41.9% YoY to Rs 55.9 crore in Q3FY23, while its revenue improved 17.8% YoY to Rs 533.3 crore. KSB has an order intake of Rs 2,045.6 crore for the year ending December 2022. 

    Analysts Chirag Shah and Vijay Goel say, “Domestic business is doing better with healthier demand for standard pumps and engineered pumps.” The analysts remain optimistic as nuclear, petrochemical and mechanical seal segments of KSB witness strong traction and the company focuses on increasing its share in services and spares. Shah and Goel expect revenue, EBITDA and profit to grow at 18.1%, 22.1% and 21.6% CAGR respectively over CY22-24, led by strong execution.

    1. Federal Bank: Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this private bank with a target price of Rs 170, implying an upside of 27%. Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya, Prathamesh Sawant and Bhavya Shah believe the company is well-placed to deliver healthy growth in the medium term as its operational metrics continue to improve. They expect the bank to see robust credit growth, driven by an improvement in the share of high-yielding products. The analysts also see the firm’s improving fee income, moderating operating expenses and improving asset quality as key positives and that “this would result in the bank’s credit costs trends continuing to remain benign”.

    Vaidya, Sawant and Shah are upbeat about the bank’s prospects due to its high share of retail-dominated deposits and healthy CASA ratio. The analysts anticipate healthy growth in the medium term due to the company’s expansion plans and its healthy metrics. They expect the bank’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 15.3% over FY23-25. 

    1. Axis Bank: ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 1,130. This indicates an upside of 32%. Analysts Chintan Shah and Renish Bhuva believe the company’s acquisition of Citibank’s consumer business in India will enable the bank to capture premium market share growth. The total purchase consideration for the acquisition is Rs 11,603 crore. The analysts say the deal is favourable for Axis Bank as it gets “access to Citibank’s huge retail deposit base, affluent and profitable consumer franchise and strategic synergy benefits over the medium term”.

    Shah and Bhuva see this deal as a boost towards the bank’s long-term growth as it aligns with its premiumisation strategy. It gets access to a sizable granular deposit base and an opportunity to cross-sell its products to Citibank’s affluent customers. The analysts expect the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 39% over FY22-24.

    1. Infosys: Bob Capital Markets maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this software and services company with a target price of Rs 1,760, indicating an upside of 18%. Analyst Saptarshi Mukherjee says, “Private 5G is expected to be a key enabler for the digital transformation of enterprises.” He adds that the market for private 5G services in India is likely to be around $570 million by 2026, and the software expense will be materially higher than hardware and services over the next decade.

    According to Mukherjee, the company is well-placed to leverage its global 5G expertise to deliver private 5G-as-a-service. “Despite Infosys’ cautious outlook on a few verticals, we believe its strength in managing the twin journey of digital transformation and cost takeout will drive growth leadership,” he concludes.   

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    03 Mar 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Rail Vikas Nigam (RVNL): This construction & engineering company, an infrastructure arm of the Ministry of Railways, has outperformed the Nifty 50 index by 6.7 percentage points in the past week. However, the stock price has fallen 9.4% over the past 30 days. Because of the sharp rise over the past week, the company features in a screener of stocks with the highest recovery from 52-week low.

    RVNL rose 12.3% on Thursday on the back of an order win from the  joint venture with Metrowagonmash and Locomotive Electronic System. The Rs 24,000 crore order is for the manufacture and maintenance of 200 Vande Bharat trains. It also includes the upgradation of government manufacturing facilities and train depots.

    The company had risen 4.4% on February 24 as well after winning another order worth Rs 196.8 crore from Madhya Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran for the supply, installation, testing and commissioning of new 11 KV lines in Bhopal.

    These order wins take the company’s order book to approximately Rs 77,862.8 crore. The orders come on the back of the government’s capex push in the railways segment. The government increased the capex for railways by 16% to Rs 2.92 lakh crore in the FY24 budget announcement. It will be used for building railway tracks, wagons, trains, electrification, signalling and developing facilities at stations.

    1. Uflex: This containers & packaging stock had a shaky end to February as the Income Tax (IT) department conducted raids across 64 locations related to the company, causing the stock price to nose-dive more than 11% in the past week. It fell 17% on February 27, hitting a 52-week low despite the company releasing a clarification. But the clarification came six days after the exchange sought an explanation.

    According to media reports, the IT department found irregularities of Rs 1,000 crore in Uflex’s financial statements and allegedly seized evidence to the tune of Rs 4,000 crore from its Noida office. Bogus company transactions through 60 shell companies were also reported. IT officials have seized 28 bank lockers linked to the company. This was similar to the raid in 2014 where Rs 300 crore in cash was seized from Uflex’s office. Notably, Ashok Chaturvedi, the company’s promoter, was investigated by the IT Dept in 2007 in another case.

    The stock gained 7% on Tuesday and 10% on Wednesday, erasing nearly all losses after the company released a  clarification denying all media reports of the seizing of assets or financial documents. The company, in its filing, says it continues to adhere to good business practices. However, the IT department is yet to make an official statement regarding the matter. Uflexshows up in a screener of stocks losing more than 20% in one month and declining net cash flow.

    1. Delhivery: This logistics company’s share price fell 2.1% in intra-day trade on Thursday after Softbank’s arm SVF Doorbell cut its stake by 3.84% (Rs 954 crore) to around 14% through a block deal. This comes after Tiger Global pared its holding in the company to 2.98%, after it sold 1.2 crore shares worth Rs 414.2 crore on February 24. The company’s stock has been picked up by many investment firms and funds like Baillie Gifford, Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, BNP Paribas Arbitrage and City of New York Group Trust.

    The stock currently trades 30.4% lower than its issue price of Rs 487 as of Friday. But the firm has risen over 8% since announcing its Q3FY23 results on February 10. Even though its revenue fell and net loss widened on a YoY basis, its performance improved sequentially on the back of cost optimisations and market share gains. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with increasing revenue sequentially over the past two quarters. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, the consensus recommendation on the company is ‘Buy’.

    The company’s partial truckload (PTL) volumes have been consistently improving since November 2022, after a dip in the initial days of Q3FY23 due to unseasonal rains. The management points out that the company has renegotiated contracts with its low-margin clients in the PTL business, which resulted in better margins from the segment. It expects the momentum to carry forward in Q4FY23 and FY24, and is confident about expanding its market share. Overall, the firm expects e-commerce shipments to grow 15-20% and the PTL market to grow 10-12% in a year.

    1. Vedanta Limited (VEDL): This Metals and Mining firm has been in the news for locking horns with the Government of India over a proposed related-party transaction (RPT) withHindustan Zinc. The stock hastumbled by 18% from its January-31 peak to Rs 268. In January, Hindustan Zinc, via its promoter group, has approved the purchase of Vedanta’s zinc assets for USD 2.98 billion over a span of 18 months. This was despite the dissent of Hindustan Zinc’s directors representing the government. The government has plans to sell part of its stake in Hindustan Zinc in line with its divestment plans.

    Hindustan Zinc is a subsidiary of Anil Agarwal’s Vedanta Limited. The promoter group owns a 69.69% stake in Vedanta, and Vedanta owns a  64.92% stake in Hindustan Zinc. Among minority shareholders, the Government of India owns 29.54% in Hindustan Zinc.

    As Hindustan Zinc’s plan to buy VEDL’s assets will come under RPT, SEBI regulations mandate the approval of minority shareholders in full majority. The government, with its 29.54% stake, has voted against the RPT stating that it is against Hindustan Zinc using the cash reserve to buy VEDL assets.

    Vedanta was selling its assets as part of its plans to reduce its debt by USD 4 billion in three years. In the past 11 months, VEDL has reduced its debt by USD 2 billion. The sale of its zinc assets would have ensured smooth sailing of the debt reduction commitment. According to VEDL,it has fulfilled all debt obligations till March 2023 and has sufficient cash flows to manage debt payments till June 2023. Further, VEDL is in talks to raise USD 1 billion via a syndicated bank loan.

    1. Power Grid Corporation of India: This electric utilities company closed in the red on Wednesday despite its order win to establish an inter-state transmission system. However, the stock has risen 2.7% in the past week, outperforming the Nifty 50 index by 3.6% in an overall weak market. Due to the rise in stock price, the company features in a screener of stocks trading above their short-, medium- and long-term moving averages.

    Post market hours on Tuesday, the company was declared the successful bidder under tariff-based competitive bidding to establish an inter-state transmission system for Khavda Pooling Station-3 in Khavda RE Park, on a build own operate and transfer (BOOT) basis. The project includes the establishment of a new 765/400kV GIS substation, a 765kV direct current transmission line, and associated works in Gujarat.

    The stock has been on an uptrend since February 23 with JP Morgan’s upbeat outlook on the company, according to reports. The brokerage has an ‘Overweight’ rating with a target price of Rs 255. This implies an upside of 18%. It believes that the company targets to grow generation capacity at a 10% compounded annual rate to meet the power demand. The rise in stock price was also because of its board approving  a Rs 803 crore investment in electricity transmission projects. Currently, Power Grid has ongoing projects worth Rs 7,600 crore, new projects for Rs 27,000 crore and tariff-based competitive bidding projects of Rs 13,000 crore, totalling to Rs 47,600 crore, according to Sharekhan.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    03 Mar 2023
    Chart of the week: From merger talks to bankruptcy threat, Zee Entertainment is going through a volatile time

    Chart of the week: From merger talks to bankruptcy threat, Zee Entertainment is going through a volatile time

    By Abdullah Shah

    The past few weeks have been turbulent for Zee Entertainment Enterprises. The company was placed under the corporate insolvency resolution process by the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) on February 24. However, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) removed the stock from the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) framework on Tuesday. The NSE’s actions came after the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) stayed the NCLT order following an appeal from Zee’s Managing Director and CEO, Punit Goenka. 

    Zee’s share price has gone through ups and downs as these events unfolded. In this edition of chart of the week, we take a look at the company’s price action since it first started talks about the merger with Sony Pictures Networks in September 2021.

    The stock had surged almost 40% back on September 14, 2021, as the company’s two biggest investors, Invesco Developing Markets Fund and OFI Global China Fund LLC, holders of 17.9% stake in the company, called for an extraordinary general meeting. The purpose of the meeting was to oust Managing Director and CEO Punit Goenka and two other directors from the board. 

    Almost a week later, on September 22, 2021, the stock rose again (31.7%) after its board approved the execution of a non-binding term sheet for the merger of the company with Sony Pictures Networks. Some principle terms included that the company’s shareholders will have a 47.1% holding in the merged entity, while Sony India will have 52.9%. Another term was that Sony India will have the right to appoint majority directors on the board, with Punit Goenka as the MD and CEO of the merged company. 

    After the news about the merger settled, investors’ focus shifted to Zee’s Q3FY22 results. The stock fell for three consecutive sessions after the company posted a 25.3% YoY drop in net profit to Rs 298.7 crore in Q3FY22 on February 2, 2022. A fall in income from advertisement, subscriptions and other sales caused the revenue to decline by 22.6% YoY. 

    However, the stock rose 16.7% on March 24, 2022, as its promoters showed their support for the merger and ended their demand  for an EGM to remove Punit Goenka from his post.

    The company showed some signs of operational recovery as its revenue grew by 19% YoY to Rs 2,361.2 crore in Q4FY22, helping the stock rise for four consecutive sessions till May 31, 2022. The rise came as its revenue beat analysts’ estimates. On October 4, 2022, the stock rose 6.3% after its board approved the composite scheme of arrangement for its merger with Sony India following the nod from the Competition Commission of India (CCI). 

    Recently, the merger came under scrutiny after the NCLT placed the company under corporate insolvency resolution process based on a petition filed by IndusInd Bank. Zee was a guarantor for Siti Networks for a loan worth Rs 83 crore owed to IndusInd Bank. This caused the stock to plunge 9.2% on February 24, 2023. Earlier in the month, the NCLT initiated insolvency proceedings against Zee Learn, a Zee Group company, after Yes Bank filed a petition for a loan default of Rs 469 crore by Siti Networks.

    But the order was then stayed by the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) on February 24 after hearing from Punit Goenka, and it has asked IndusInd Bank for a response in two weeks. On February 28, 2023, NSE followed suit by removing the stock from the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) framework, reverting the surveillance actions on the company, while also reincluding the stock in its futures and options contracts with expiry in May 2023. The stock rose 6.3% on the same day. 

    Zee Entertainment is not out of the woods yet. This volatility in Zee’s share price is expected to continue as investors track the latest news and IndusInd Bank’s response to NCLAT. 

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    The Baseline
    02 Mar 2023
    Screener of the week: Companies with increasing debt and reducing operating cash flows

    Screener of the week: Companies with increasing debt and reducing operating cash flows

    By Abdullah Shah

    The Adani Group controversy and a series of rate hikes have made investors cautious towards high-debt companies. So this week, we look at a screener of companies with high total debt-to-equity ratios. These businesses also saw their long-term debt-to-equity ratio rising and cash flows falling in FY22. 

    This screener has 14 stocks from Nifty 500 and five stocks from the Nifty 50 index. Major stocks that show up in the screener are TVS Motor, Tata Motors, Adani Enterprises, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum. 

    TVS Motor had the highest annual total debt-to-equity ratio of 3.5X among non-banking stocks. It posted an annual operating cash outflow of Rs 1,560 crore in FY22 against an inflow of Rs 1,151 crore in FY21. In H1FY23, the company’s long-term debt to equity ratio rose to 1.9X from 1.7X in FY22, as borrowings rose by 25%.

    Tata Motors had an annual total debt-to-equity ratio of 3.1X in FY22. The company’s total debt-to-equity ratio rose to 5.2X in H1FY23, owing to a sharp rise in long-term liabilities. 

    Adani Enterprises had a total debt-to-equity ratio of 1.9X in FY22, which fell to 1.3X in H1FY23, owing to equity fundraising. The company saw its cash flow from operating activities fall by 66% in the past fiscal.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    28 Feb 2023
    Five analyst picks this week

    Five analyst picks this week

    By Suhas Reddy
    1. Prestige Estates Projects: Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this realty company with a target price of Rs 675, implying an upside of 66%. Analysts Pritesh Sheth and Sourabh Gilda note that the company’s plans to double its sales bookings to Rs 25,000 crore by ramping up new launches is a key positive. They point out that Rs 7,500 crore of the firm’s planned capex (Rs 15,700 crore) for the next five years will be funded through external debt. Investors have been concerned about the strain this additional debt may cause on the balance sheet. But analysts believe Prestige’s rising cash flows and net worth will keep its debt-to-equity ratio stable. 

    Sheth and Gilda are optimistic about the company’s ambitious growth guidance for the next five years, but believe the realty firm’s business development is key to realise the growth potential. They anticipate robust growth in rental income as well. They say, “Once the commercial portfolio fully stabilises over the next five to six years, it will generate rental income of Rs 3,200 crore.” The analysts expect the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% over FY23-25. 

    1. Minda Corp: Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this auto parts & equipment company with a target price of Rs 230, indicating an upside of 19.3%. Analysts Aditya Welekar and Shridhar Kallani maintain their previous recommendation and target price following Minda’s acquisition of a 15.7% stake in Pricol for Rs 400 crore. As this has been a financial investment and the company holds a minority stake, no synergies are expected from the acquisition, they add.  

    The analysts maintain their positive outlook on the company’s growth prospects. They expect Minda Corp to be the prime beneficiary of product premiumization, growth in electric vehicle usage and increased business from commercial and passenger vehicle manufacturers. They are also upbeat about the management’s confidence to outperform the industry by 10-12% on the back of margin optimisation measures. 

    However, they believe risks such as inflation, interest rate hikes and demand slowdown persist. “We maintain our cautious outlook on the 2W domestic market and overall export market in the next few quarters,” the analysts point out, and add that they expect the firm’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 21.8% over FY23-25. 

    1. Supreme Petrochem: KRChoksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this petrochemicals stock with a target price of Rs 427, indicating an upside of 12.1%. In Q3FY23, the company’s net profit fell 45.6% YoY to Rs 89.6% and revenue declined by 8.9% YoY. 

    Analyst Abhishek Agarwal attributes this weak Q3 performance to lower realisations and volumes. However, the analyst remains optimistic about the company’s growth prospects given its capacity expansion projects, as he believes it will drive future growth. According to him, “The firm is enhancing its polystyrene (PS) and expanded polystyrene insulation (EPS) production capacities to cater to the increasing demand for its products. With enhanced capacity and healthy demand from end-user industries, it will see strong growth in the future.” 

    Agarwal expects capacity expansion projects to add 1.2 lakh metric tonnes per annum of additional PS and EPS to its current capacity. The launch of new products and the production expansion will boost volume growth in the coming quarters, he says. He expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 10% over FY22-24. 

    1. Muthoot Finance: Chola Wealth Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this NBFC with a target price of Rs 1,350. This indicates an upside of 39.4%. According to analyst Huseain Kaizer Bharuchwala, the company has witnessed better gold loan demand in the past two months and it expects to return to double-digit gold loan growth in a few quarters. He believes that the tradeoff between loan growth and margin will persist “in the foreseeable future”.

    The analyst says, “Muthoot, in our view, is unlikely to pursue gold loan growth at the cost of profitability. As pressure from banks and fintechs start subsiding and teaser loan rates impact vanish, we expect 10% growth in standalone AUM in FY24.” The analyst remains optimistic, expecting the company to regain some lost market share starting FY24 and returning to a double-digit growth rate in Q2FY24.

    1. Mahindra Lifespace Developers: ICICI Securities retains its ‘Buy’ call on this realty company with a target price of Rs 483, indicating an upside of 29.5%. After the company’s Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Managing Director (MD) Arvind Subramanian resigned from his post, Mahindra Group replaced him with Amit Kumar Sinha. The resignation will take effect from May 22, 2023. Analyst Adhidev Chattopadhyay says, “The management transition comes at a time when the wheels for growth have been already set in motion, and barring any large churn in department heads, continuity in growth plans should not be a major hurdle.”

    The analyst expects the company to achieve Rs 1,900-2,000 crore of FY23 sales bookings, implying 58% growth over FY22 sales. He estimates FY24 and FY25 sales bookings to be at Rs 2,340 crore and Rs 2,710 crore respectively on the back of a robust launch pipeline for FY24 and new project additions. “We believe that the company is on track to achieve its medium-term guidance of Rs 2,500 crore of residential sales bookings by FY25,” the analyst concludes. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    24 Feb 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Samvardhana Motherson International: This auto parts & equipment company’s share price has been on an uptrend since Monday, after its step-down subsidiary signed an agreement to acquire a 100% stake in SAS Autosystemtechnik at an enterprise value of 540 million euros (Rs 4,790 crore). As a result of the share price rise, the company features in a screener of stocks trading above their short-, medium- and long-term moving averages.

    Based in Germany, SAS is a leading provider of cockpit module assemblies for cars. This acquisition will help Samvardhana improve integration in the automotive supply chain, increase customer proximity and diversify its products. Europe is a key market for Motherson, accounting for 60% of its revenues.

    Vivek Chaand Sehgal, Chairman of Samvardhana Motherson International, said that the acquisition will help in diversifying the customer base and products. It will transform Motherson Group into a leading assembler of cockpit modules globally, with a special focus on EV models.

    Analysts believe that the acquisition is in line with Samvardhana's strategy to expand its product line and enhance its footprint in the European market. ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock post the acquisition announcement. The brokerage believes the acquisition will help the company improve its logistical practices and, in turn, save costs and add new business opportunities.

    1. Bharat Dynamics: The Aero India event has helped this defence company takeoff. It has risen 22.2% over the past week on the back of multiple memorandum of understanding (MoU) contracts from Indian as well as foreign companies at Aero India 2023. It also won an export order worth $255 million (approximately Rs 2,108 crore) on Monday. This order will be added to the company’s already strong order book of Rs 11,906 crore as of November 2022. The company features in a screener of stocks near their 52-week highs with significant volumes.

    However, the share price had previously fallen around 10% in five trading sessions starting February 7 after it announced Q3FY23 results. Its net profit declined 60.7% YoY to Rs 213.3 crore in Q3FY23 and revenue also fell 42.6% YoY to Rs 461.6 crore. Talking about the result, the management said, “Supply of certain electronic components was delayed due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and this impacted the performance during the period. The company is exploring alternatives to mitigate the impact.” 

    ICICI Securities remains bullish on the stock and maintains its ‘Add’ rating with a revised target price of Rs 955, despite slower-than-expected order inflows during 9MFY23. The broker believes that the company is likely to benefit from several defence procurement opportunities in the pipeline.

    The company has also launched several new products at Aero India 2023. It ranks high on Trendlyne’s checklist with a score of 56.5%, while the broker consensus on the stock is ‘Buy’.

    1. United Breweries: This breweries and distilleries stock has fallen 1.5% in the past week. On the technical front, the stock is trading down 7.7% over a month, 13% lower in the past 3 months and 5% lower over the year. It shows up in a screener of weak momentum stocks where the price is below short-, medium- and long-term averages.

    United Breweries faced two major incidents this week. Its Managing Director & CEO Rishi Pardal resigned on February 17 (the announcement came in after market hours), causing the stock to fall 2% in trade on Monday. But the stock held its ground during the second incident: The Supreme Court (SC) stayed a penalty order from the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) and the Competition Commission of India in an alleged beer cartel case against the company. However, the SC has directed the company to pay a 10% additional penalty over and above the 10% paid to NCLAT. The total fine slapped on the company is around Rs 873 crore.

    Its Q3FY23 results have not been encouraging either. It reported a net loss of Rs 2 crore on lower sales volumes, especially in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, triggering an impairment review by the company. It reported an exceptional loss of Rs 33 crore on its profit and loss statement, which is the amount of impairment of property, plant and equipment. The management, in its earnings call, says that they are not planning a restructuring in these states yet, but will improve sales volumes in the coming quarters. High raw material costs (up 22% YoY) and an increase in excise duty have also led to rising expenses eating into earnings.

    The stock shows up in a screener of stocks with declining revenue for the past two quarters. However, Trendlyne’s consensus recommendation of February shows that 10 analysts recommend a ‘Buy’, 2 ‘Hold’ and 1 ‘Sell’.

    1. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited (ZEEL): This media stock slumped on Thursday and made news for its continued financial woes. It tanked 14% in the past two trading sessions after National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) admitted IndusInd Bank’s insolvency plea against ZEEL.

    In December 2021, Sony and ZEEL had signed a deal to merge their television networks, programme libraries, digital assets, and operations. But IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank and IDBI Bank opposed the ZEEL-Culver Max Entertainment (Sony) merger citing non-payment of dues. In line with that, IndusInd filed an application with NCLT seeking payment of Rs 89 crore against the loan default. Once the NCLT proceedings are initiated, the firm cannot go ahead with its merger.

    ZEEL is also the guarantor for a Rs 150-crore loan given by IndusInd Bank to Siti Networks. Siti Networks is another Subhash Chandra-owned ESSEL Group company. NCLT has initiated insolvency proceedings against Siti Networks as well. The alternative solution for ZEEL is to repay the dues or file an appeal against the plea.  

    ZEEL MD & CEO Punit Goenka says they will “take all measures to protect shareholder interests and ensure the timely completion of the deal”. On Friday, it was reported that ZEEL has challenged the Mumbai NCLT order and successfully received a stay order from National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) till March 29.

    1. Sonata Software: This IT consulting & software company rose 5.3% in trade on Thursday after announcing the acquisition of Quant Systems, a US-based software company. This comes while the company is in the midst of an uptrend since announcing its Q3FY23 results on January 24. Its net profit has risen 4.4% QoQ to Rs 117.7 crore and revenue surged 51.1% QoQ. Over the past month, the firm has gained 24.1% till Thursday and shows up in a screener for stocks trading above their short, medium and long-term moving averages.

      The acquisition of Quant Systems is set to be the largest in the company’s history. Sonata Software has agreed to buy a 100% stake in the US-based company for an upfront cash consideration of $65 million and deferred achievement-based payouts up to $95 million, payable over two years. The management believes this deal will accelerate growth and scale while strengthening the company’s capabilities in a wide range of services. Samir Dhir, CEO and Managing Director of the company, believes that the acquisition will contribute 16.7% to the consolidated revenue, according to reports. This acquisition will also add two large clients to the company’s top five client list.

      The management plans to accelerate growth by doubling its IT services revenue in the next four years by focusing on winning large deals. The company is looking to enhance its presence in the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) and healthcare verticals to accelerate its growth trajectory. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, the consensus recommendation on the company is a ‘Buy’.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    24 Feb 2023
    Chart of the week: India’s foreign exchange reserves under pressure?

    Chart of the week: India’s foreign exchange reserves under pressure?

    By Abdullah Shah

    India’s foreign exchange reserves declined for two consecutive weeks in February 2023, after rising for three straight months from November 2022 to January 2023. The week ending February 10, 2023 witnessed the sharpest fall in weekly reserves since April 2022. The reserves plunged by $8.4 billion. 

    The Adani-Hindenburg saga caused a massive sell-off in the Indian equity market, and foreign institutional investors sold Rs 10,068.3 crore over the past 30 days. At the same time, the Indian rupee took a hit as the US Federal Bank raised interest rates by a further 25 bps on February 1, 2023. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been selling US dollars to put a floor under  the rupee’s depreciation. This was the major reason for the decline in the foreign exchange reserves. 

    Despite the decline in reserves, data shows that India is still at double the reserve levels in 2013, when the RBI had gone on a dollar selling spree as the US Fed slowed its pace of bond buybacks.

    How is India doing relative to other emerging markets? For comparison, we can look at some economies in the world which are facing tough challenges for economic growth. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves has suffered a drastic decline of 61.4% since February 2022 and stands at a meagre $8.7 billion as of January 2023. The country had already secured a $6 billion bail-out from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2019 followed by another infusion of $1 billion in 2022. It has a total foreign debt of $126 billion which includes loans from China, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

    Another neighbour, Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy in July 2022 with a possibility of having to default on its sovereign debt repayment. The country’s foreign exchange reserve stands at just $1.9 billion as of December 2022, down 19.6% since January 2022 with loans from the IMF, China, India and Japan. 

    On the other side of the world, Turkey has seen its foreign exchange reserves fall to $75.6 billion in February 2023, its lowest level since July 2022. But it is still 21.9% higher than its multi-month low in August 2022. 

    Despite the drop, India still has a comfortable reserves cushion, although the impact of the trade deficit and appreciating dollar in the coming months will have to be closely monitored. At its current level of $566.9 billion, India’s foreign exchange is estimated to cover for 9.2 months of imports projected for FY23.

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    The Baseline
    23 Feb 2023
    Screener of the week: IT stocks that beat analyst estimates for revenue and net profit in Q3FY23

    Screener of the week: IT stocks that beat analyst estimates for revenue and net profit in Q3FY23

    By Abdullah Shah

    This week’s screener features stocks from the software & services sector which beat Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates for both revenue and net profit in Q3FY23. Major stocks in the screener are KPIT Technologies, Cyient, Tata Elxsi, Infosys and HCL Technologies.

    Cyient’s Q3FY23 revenue beat analyst forecaster estimates by 1.8%, while net profit overtook the estimates by 10.3%. The company’s revenue and net profit have grown by 15.9% and 97.2% QoQ respectively. This rise was helped by growth in its overseas business and an 83% QoQ increase in the company’s order intake. 

    Tata Elxsi also beat the forecaster estimates in revenue and net profit by 1.3% and 10.2% respectively in Q3FY23. Its revenue has risen 28.7% on the back of growth in embedded product design (EPD), industrial design and visualization (IDV) and transportation segments. The company saw an increase in orders from the US and European markets.

    You can find more screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    22 Feb 2023
    Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q3FY23?

    Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q3FY23?

    By Suhas Reddy

    Superstar investors make portfolio changes every quarter, which give us insights into which stocks they are bullish and bearish on. Earlier, we looked at the companies in which superstars bought stakes in Q3FY23. Here, we look at their key sells.  

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio takes holdings below 1% in three companies

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's portfolio, currently managed by the Rare Enterprises team, sold stakes in 11 companies in Q3FY23. The investment firm reduced stakes to below 1% in Orient Cement, Man Infraconstruction and Anant Raj from 1.2%, 1.2% and 3.1% respectively. 

    Over the past year till February 21, the cement & construction firms, Orient Cement and Man Infraconstruction, have fallen by 22% each. The realty firm Anant Raj’s share price rose 60.5%.

    The big bull’s portfolio reduced its stake in Dishman Carbogen Amcis by 1.6% to 1.6%. It also cut a 0.4% stake in Titan Co, bringing the holding to 5.2%, and pared stakes in Fortis Healthcare and Star Health & Allied Insurance Co by 0.2% and 0.1% to 4.5% and 17.3% respectively. 

    It also sold minor stakes in Metro Brands, Nazara Technologies, Aptech and Indian Hotels Co in Q3FY23. 

    Sunil Singhania makes minor changes to portfolio in terms of stake sell

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund sold a 0.5% stake in industrial machinery company The Anup Engineering in Q3FY23. Its stake in the company is now at 4.2%. The fund also cut a 0.2% stake in Jindal Stainless (Hisar), taking the stake to 3.7%. The stainless steel producer’s net profit fell 32.9% YoY to Rs 344.3 crore in Q3FY23. 

    The marquee investor cut a 0.1% stake in Route Mobile (internet software and services company) and Hindware Home Innovation (consumer durables manufacturer). The fund now holds 2.6% and 4.9% in these companies respectively. Hindware Home Innovation reported a YoY fall of 78.3% in its net profit during the quarter. 

    Abakkus Fund also cut a minor stake in IIFL Securities and HIL; it now holds 3.2% and 3.1% respectively.

    Ashish Kacholia takes his holdings below 1% in two companies 

    Ashish Kacholia sold his stake in Rainbow Children’s Medicare (healthcare facilities company) and SG Finserve (financial services provider) to below 1% during Q3FY23. These companies were added to his portfolio in Q2FY23 when he bought 1% and 1.1% stakes in them respectively. 

    Like Singhania, Kacholia also pared his stake in Hindware Home Innovation by 1.3% during the quarter. He now holds a 1.3% stake in the company. The ace investor also sold a 1.2% stake in D-Link (India), an IT company, bringing his stake down to 2.1%. During the quarter, D-Link’s profit increased almost three-fold YoY to Rs 27.3 crore. 

    Dolly Khanna bearish in Q3FY23, reduces holdings in 18 companies

    Dolly Khanna was on a selling spree in Q3, and pared her stakes in 18 companies. This seems to be a response to the volatility in markets - this investor tends to sell quickly in flat and bearish markets. The ace investor trimmed her stakes to below 1% in seven companies–Aries Agro, J Kumar Infraprojects, Manali Petrochemicals, NCL Industries, Polyplex Corp, Sharda Cropchem and Zuari Industries.

    Of the 18 companies the investor cut her stakes in, three were from the cement & construction sector, three from the chemicals & petrochemicals sector, and two each from the fertilizers, automobiles & auto components, commercial services & supplies and textiles sectors.  She also reduced her holdings in one firm each from the realty, FMCG, oil & gas and metals & mining sectors.

    She sold a 0.6% stake in cement manufacturer KCP, bringing her holding down to 2.4% in Q3. She pared her stake in Chennai Petroleum Corp by 0.4% to 2.2%, Pondy Oxides & Chemicals by 0.3% to 3.1% and Rama Phosphates by 0.2% to 1.5%. 

    Khanna also reduced her holdings in Nitin Spinners, Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers, Ajanta Soya, Tinna Rubber & Infrastructure and Deepak Spinners by 0.1% each to 1.4%, 1.2%, 1.5%, 1.6% and 1.2% respectively. She sold minor stakes in Talbros Automotive Components and Control Print as well. 

    Vijay Kedia cuts stake in FMCG company Lykis to below 1% 

    After reducing his stake in Lykis to 2.7% from 9.3% in Q2FY23, Vijay Kediatook it to below 1% in Q3. Lykis’ share price has surged by 48.1% since the beginning of Q4FY23. In Q3, Kedia cut his stake in Cera Sanitaryware (furnishing products company) also to below 1%, as against the 1% held in Q2FY23. 

    Kedia slashed his stake in Talbros Automotive Components to 1.3% from 2.3% held in the previous quarter. He reduced his stake in Tejas Networks (telecom company) to 2.3% by cutting 0.3% and in Ramco Systems (IT consultant) to 1.4% by cutting 0.2%. He sold a minor stake in Repro India also and now holds a 7.1% stake in the company. 

    Porinju Veliyath takes stakes below 1% in three companies

    Porinju Veliyath reduced his stakes in a total of  four companies in Q3FY23. Among them, three firms were taken to below 1%, namely heavy electrical equipment company HPL Electric Power (from 1.3%), retailing company Praxis Home Retail (from 1.1%) and logistics firm Gati (from 1%). Praxis and Gati have fallen by 64.4% and 20.7% respectively over the past year till February 21. On the other hand, HPL Electric gained 31.6% in the same time period. 

    The ace investor also sold a 0.5% stake in Kerala Ayurveda, bringing down his stake in the pharmaceutical company to 1.9%. 

    Anil Kumar Goel cuts stakes in small-cap and micro-cap companies

    Anil Kumar Geol & Associatesreduced stakes in three companies in Q3FY23. The investor took his stake below 1% in construction & engineering firm Salasar Techno Engineering. Over the past year till February 21, the stock has gained 73.8% but shed 10.2% in the past month. 

    Goel reduced his stake in TCPL Packaging, a paper & paper products company, by 0.3% to 10.2%. He also reduced his stake by 0.1% to 2.2% in Austin Engineering Co, a micro-cap industrial machinery firm. 

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    The Baseline
    21 Feb 2023
    Five High Performing Analyst Picks This Week

    Five High Performing Analyst Picks This Week

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    This week, we take a look at analyst stock picks which saw positive YoY profit and revenue growth in Q3FY23, with strong Trendlyne Durability, Valuation and Momentum scores.

    1. Oil India: Prabhudas Lilladher keeps its ‘Buy’ rating on this oil exploration & production company, and raises the target price to Rs 305 from Rs 300. This implies an upside of 19.8%. In Q3FY23, the company’s net profit surged by 76% YoY to Rs 2,284.4 crore and revenue grew by 37.7% YoY. Oil India has a high DVM score, with a Durability score of 85, Valuation score of 84.3 and Momentum score of 67.3. 

    Analyst Avishek Datta attributes the firm’s robust Q3 performance to healthy crude oil and gas realisations, along with increasing demand. He adds that the company’s Numaligarh refinery has had a steady performance. 

    Datta sees the company’s aggressive production expansion plans as a key positive, and expects oil volumes to increase by 30% and gas volumes to surge by 60% by FY25. The analyst believes, “Oil India’s earnings will ride on new capacity addition across crude oil, natural gas and refinery”. He expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 15.7% over FY22-25. 

    1. Zydus Lifesciences: KRChoksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceuticals company and increases its target price to Rs 610 from Rs 507. This indicates an upside of 30.1%. In Q3FY23, the company’s net profit rose by 24.5% YoY to Rs 622.9 crore and revenue increased by 19.4% YoY. Zydus Lifesciences has a Durability score of 75, Valuation score of 33.3 and Momentum score of 67.7. 

    Analyst Abhishek Agarwal attributes the company’s growth in Q3 to healthy growth in the key markets of India and the US. He points to new product launches and innovations in the US market as growth drivers. According to the analyst, “Zydus Lifesciences has a strong portfolio of existing products and new US product launches in the pipeline, which provides revenue visibility over the long term.”

    Agarwal expects growth in the India formulations business will be led by rising market share in key therapies. The consumer wellness segment will see an expansion in margins in the medium term, he says, due to pricing actions and recovery in rural demand. The analyst anticipates the firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% over FY22-25. 

    1. JK Lakshmi Cement: Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this cement manufacturer with a target price of Rs 840, indicating an upside of 12.8%. In Q3FY23, the company’s net profit increased 19.1% YoY to Rs 76.4 crore, while its revenue grew 20.9% YoY. The company missed the brokerage’s estimates according to analysts Uttam Srimal and Shikha Doshi. JK Lakshmi Cement has a Durability score of 75, Valuation score of 37.5 and Momentum score of 60.8. 

    The analysts say, “The company is working on many levers – optimising geo-mix, higher production, sale of blended cement, increasing proportion of trade sales, premium and value-added products, logistic efficiency.” They expect the company to post EBITDA growth of 12% CAGR over FY21-24 on the back of better realisation, higher volume and cost-saving initiatives.

    Srimal and Doshi are optimistic as the demand for cement remains robust on account of the government’s push for infrastructure development and affordable housing.

    1. Mahindra & Mahindra: HDFC Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this automobile manufacturer and increases the target price to Rs 1,554. It indicates an upside of 15.1%. In Q3FY23, the company’s profit rose 34.7% YoY to Rs 2,676.6 crore, while its revenue grew 30% YoY. Analysts Aniket Mhatre and Sonaal Sharma believe that the higher-than-estimated profit growth is backed by higher other income. Mahindra & Mahindra has a Durability score of 70, Valuation score of 47.5 and Momentum score of 58.9.

    According to the analysts, “It is commendable that Mahindra & Mahindra has already achieved most of the targets it earmarked a couple of years ago (like EPS CAGR, improvement in auto margins, RoE at 18%, calibrated asset allocation, etc.) and the management has indicated that it is now time to raise its targets.” 

    They continue to remain positive about the company on the back of a big order backlog for utility vehicles, positive rural sentiment, strides taken to achieve a strong position in electric vehicles and cautious capital allocation.

    1. Oil And Natural Gas Corp: ICICI Direct updates its rating to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ on this oil and gas producer and gives it a target price of Rs 180, indicating an upside of 16.7%. In Q3FY23, ONGC reported an increase of  5.1% YoY in net profit to Rs 11,489 crore and a 15.7% YoY rise in revenue. Analysts Harshal Mehta and Payal Shah say the results are below estimates due to the decline in crude prices and increase in depreciation. ONGC has a Durability score of 70, Valuation score of 74.7 and Momentum score of 64.5.

    The analysts believe that even if gas prices get capped, realisations are likely to remain high as they are well above historical averages, and with the commencement of production from the KG Basin in May, volumes are expected to grow. They add, “Sustained higher crude oil prices and gas realisations can result in better profitability.” Mehta and Shah remain optimistic due to the high dividend yield and payout ratio.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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