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17 Apr 2025

Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 17, 2025

1.Delhivery:

This transport and logistics company rose by over 15.5% in the past week after announcing the acquisition of Ecom Express for over Rs 1,400 crore. Ecom is the second-largest player in the business-to-consumer (B2C) third-party logistics space after Delhivery. Together, the two companies would hold around 55–60% of the market share.

The acquisition was a fire sale by Ecom Express. Major clients like Meesho, Reliance, and Flipkart had reportedly cut back or stopped using Ecom’s services. This loss of big customers made it harder for Ecom to keep up with its costs. The company sold its business at nearly half the valuation it was looking at during its now-shelved IPO.

Analysts believe Ecom's acquisition will help Delhivery offset the impact of clients like Meesho choosing to insource. Delhivery may also benefit from significant cost savings over the next 12-18 months by using the same facilities, like sorting hubs and delivery centers. However, some analysts do not expect the deal to boost earnings in the near term, as Ecom posted a net loss of Rs 2,600 crore in FY24, likely higher in FY25.

During the December quarter, the express parcel segment accounted for 63% of the company’s total revenue, while the partial truckload (PTL) segment made up 19%. The express parcel segment’s EBITDA margin dropped by 500 bps to 15.6%, due to higher vehicle rental costs. Sahil Barua, MD & CEO, expects this margin to stabilize at 17-20% in the coming quarters, helped by a shift to locked-in vehicle rental rates and better volumes, which will improve cost efficiency.

He said, “We are targeting a 25-30% volume growth in the PTL segment and expect margin improvement through better utilization in FY26.” Delhivery plans to open 50 dark stores (local warehouses for online orders) in the top eight cities and expects full-year revenue of Rs 80-100 crore from this initiative.

Emkay has given a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 400. This indicates an upside of 42.3%. The brokerage expects smooth post-acquisition sales retention and network integration. Emkay projects a revenue growth of 16.3% and a net profit growth of 87.5% annually over FY25-27.

2. Kaynes Technology India:

This IoT solution provider for electronic components in the consumer durables sector rose 27% over the past week, as the US temporarily exempted tariffs on the consumer electronics industry. Rising tensions between the US and China is also expected to boost orders for Indian electronics manufacturers.

Apple's plan to manufacture more iPhones in India has raised expectations of new contracts for manufacturing components and assembly work, adding to Kayne’s positive outlook.

Kaynes Technology designs and builds electronics for the automotive, industrial, aerospace, and consumer electronics industries. It plans to enter the manufacturing and assembly of high-density printed circuit boards (PCBs).

Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects the company’s revenue to grow by 51.4% YoY to Rs 1,009.8 crore in Q4FY25 and net profit by 42.4% YoY to Rs 115.8 crore.

However, the company lowered its FY25 revenue target to Rs 2,800 crore from Rs 3,000 crore due to delays in executing Rs 100 crore worth of industrial orders. For FY26, it aims to generate Rs 4,500 crore in revenue with margins above 15%.

Kaynes Technology is setting up a Rs 3,300 crore semiconductor facility in Gujarat under the India Semiconductor Mission. The investment follows a public-private partnership model, with the Central Government chipping in with 50%, the Gujarat Government 20%, and Kaynes Technology 30%. The plant will have a capacity of 6.3 million chips per day, with pilot production scheduled for June 2025.

Ramesh Kunhikannan, MD of Kaynes Technology, said, “We expect an annual capex of Rs 200–300 crore in the Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) business to support additional volumes in FY26 and FY27.” He added that exports could contribute 20–25% of revenue, up from the current 10%, and the railway business may see a significant resurgence through the Kavach program.

Motilal Oswal reiterates a “Buy” rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 6,500. The brokerage notes that the company holds a strong revenue growth momentum, supported by a healthy order book and steady order inflows. It projects a revenue CAGR of 56% and a PAT CAGR of 68% for FY25–27.

3. Olectra Greentech:

Thiselectric bus manufacturer has surged 13.9% over the past week, driven by a series of positive developments. On April 11, the company rose 5.8% aftersecuring an order worth Rs 424 crore from the Himachal Road Transport Corporation (HRTC) to supply 297 Electric Buses.

On April 16, it gained 4.4% following thenews that the Indian government is set to launch a tender for the procurement of 10,000 electric buses under the PM E-Drive scheme. Convergence Energy Services (CESL) is expected to issue tenders next month for nine cities, with a Rs 3,000 crore subsidy.

Olectra Greentech’sQ3FY25 revenue rose 50.2% YoY to Rs 517.6 crore, driven by the sale of more buses and the introduction of higher-priced models. Trendlyne’sForecaster projects the company's revenue to grow 62.7% YoY and its net profit to surge 1.1X YoY in FY25 on the back of a strong order book.

The company’s net order book for electric busesstands at 10,224 units. Olectra Greentech aims to deliver around 2,500 buses in FY26 and is developing a new Greenfield electric vehicle manufacturing facility to meet the increasing demand.

The new facility is expected to ramp up significantly in the second half of FY26. B. Sharat Chandra, Chief Financial Officer,said, “We have built about 200 units per month, which we are ramping up to about 5,000 units per annum soon. Over a period of one year, we want to ramp up to about 10,000 units.” The second phase of construction, which includes adding robots for automation, is on track and should be finished in the next 3 to 4 months. However, the automation process will take another 6 months to complete.

Geojit BNP Paribasdowngrades the stock to ‘Accumulate’ rating, citing delays in the execution rate and a slow ramp-up in the order book for the year. The brokerage has also reduced its target price to Rs 1,485 from Rs 2,086.

4. Transformers & Rectifiers (India):

This heavy electrical equipment manufacturing company rose by 2.2% in the past week. It announced its Q4FY25 & full year results on April 8. The company’s Q4FY25 net profit jumped 135.8% YoY to Rs 94.2 crore, driven by a strong order book, while revenue rose 32.9%. The company’s management highlighted a sharp rise in order enquiries worth $3 billion (~Rs 25,700.7 crore) in FY25, and reported its highest-ever production at 29,118 MVAs, up from 16,425 MVAs in FY24. The stock also appears in a screener for strong momentum stocks.

The company missed Trendlyne’s forecaster Q4 revenue estimate by 6.1%, impacted by high exposure to State Electricity Boards (SEBs) which constitute a major chunk of its revenue and are known for late payments. It has also been due to volatility in copper and steel prices amid global trade tensions.

Chanchal Rajora, CFO at TARIL, said, “Looking ahead at FY26, we are entering the year with a robust unexecuted order book of Rs 5,132 crore and a well-diversified pipeline of inquiries from both domestic and international markets. We are committed to our long-term goal of reaching $1 billion(~Rs 8,555.9 crore) in revenue within the next 3 financial years, and we believe that we are well on track to achieve this vision.”

Mr. Rajora added, “In the next 15 months, the company will be spending Rs 550 crore on capex expansions to strengthen its organic as well as backward integration growth, with the target to become 100% backward integrated.” During the year, the company has also started a capacity expansion of 22,000 MVA at its Moraiya facilities, which is expected to be completed by February 2026.”

Nuvama Institutional Equities highlights that the current industry capacity stands at approximately 0.3 million MVA, while demand is around 0.4 million MVA and is projected to reach 0.7 million MVA by FY29. The brokerage highlights strong domestic and export demand amid tight supply for high-voltage transformer players, driving premium pricing. It sees a major market opportunity and maintains a 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 725.

5. Poonawalla Fincorp (PFL):

This non-banking financial company’s (NBFC’s) stock price rose 9.2% over the past week after it expanded its secured lending portfolio with the launch of its gold loan business. The company also plans to open 400 branches in FY26 to strengthen its presence in Tier 2 and 3 cities and foray into different loan segments.

The company announced another expansion to provide loans to shopkeepers on April 8. This targets small retailers and kirana stores, and includes cash flow, inventory, and customer management services. PFL plans to set up 44 branches across the country.

Speaking on the company’s expansion plans, its Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Arvind Kapil, said, “We have invested significantly over the last few months in rolling out multiple scalable lending businesses across the secured, unsecured and digital segments. These investments may have a four-quarter gestation period, resulting in low profitability due to high expenses.”

In Q3FY25, the company’s net profit declined by 92.9% YoY to Rs 18.7 crore due to higher expenses for new businesses and a higher share of secured loans with low margins. Poonawalla Fincorp reported a 42.2% YoY growth in assets under management (AUM) to Rs 35,550 crore in Q4FY25.

In its Q4FY25 results preview, KR Choksey expects Poonawalla Fincorp’s NII to rise 17.8% YoY, driven by strong AUM growth. However, the brokerage expects the lender’s net interest margin (NIM) to remain under pressure due to increasing borrowing costs and a shift in asset mix to lower margin loans. This is a dangerous game for a lender, considering the volatility of incomes for small businesses like kirana shops. It also estimates the firm’s net profit to decline 49.6% YoY during the quarter, caused by higher provisions against potential stress in the new businesses.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

16 Apr 2025

Top five: Stocks that could outperform in upcoming results | Screener: Stocks with high durability scores, high target prices

By Tejas MD

Does the tariff policy coming out of the US mean anything anymore? It seems pointless for markets to react to new announcements, since Trump could withdraw some tariffs in the morning and add new ones in the evening.

Still, global equities got some breathing room after Trump hit pause on the latest round of tariffs. But don’t get too comfortable. US policy has become volatile, and dangers lurk around every corner.

Fear gauges like the Nifty VIX and S&P 500 VIX have surged since Trump’s "liberation day." And now, with the Q4FY25 earnings season kicking off, there’s potential for more stock market turbulence. Morgan Stanley projects just 3% revenue growth for Nifty 50 companies—a 19-quarter low.

The real question is: which companies will beat that trend?

We have identified five stocks with the potential to beat both the overall index, and their industries. One company in the list has a fast-growing vertical that is defying the slowdown. Another has massive new international orders coming in, while a third has a reliable client that keeps on spending. They all have something unique about them.

In this week’s Analyticks:

Five stocks to watch this results season: Five companies that could deliver high growth
Screener: Stocks rising in the past quarter, with high durability scores and at least 20% target price upsides

The big winners: Five stocks expected to stand out in upcoming results

Heading into the Q4FY25 results, we shortlisted five stocks from the Nifty 500 that are predicted to post high revenue and net profit growth YoY and QoQ in Q4FY25, according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. These companies have already set the bar high with strong results in the previous quarter.

Five stocks across industries have strong revenue and profit forecasts

All five stocks in the list—KEC International, Mastek, Larsen & Toubro, Endurance Tech, and Hindalco Industries—are from different sectors. While these stocks weakened in the past year due to the market downturn, they’ve outperformed the benchmark index over two years.

Short-term laggards, long-term winners vs Nifty 50

Due to the fall, Trendlyne’s Momentum scores for these companies range from neutral to weak. But high Durability and Valuation scores signal that these may be strong, undervalued picks.

All stocks in focus have good Durability scores with strong fundamentals

T&D all the way: One segment becomes the star for KEC International

Industrials player KEC has got a boost from the Centre's capex push. The big revenue driver here is the company’s transmission and distribution (T&D) segment. In Q3FY25, the T&D business grew 17% YoY, with new orders surging an impressive 119% to Rs 16,000 crore. This momentum is expected to continue in Q4FY25.

T&D and civil segment expected to improve KEC’s profitability

Analysts expect T&D margins to improve in the coming quarters due to a higher mix of T&D orders (54%) in the order book, and strong T&D traction in both domestic and international markets.

Golden goose: Mastek eyes 50% growth in UK healthcare in FY26

This software and services company generates 56% of its revenue from the UK, with a significant portion coming from government contracts, especially with the NHS (National Health Service).

This is Mastek's golden goose, and has long been a growth driver for the GovTech-focused firm. In Q3FY25, UK revenue rose 13% YoY, helped by a rebound in UK’s overall healthcare spending.

Mastek’s revenue to rise YoY for the tenth straight quarter

Expectations for Q4 are positive, with revenue and net profit projected to grow YoY and QoQ. There is however, a word of caution. Recent news about cuts to NHS England’s administration, due to its merger with the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), led to high volatility in Mastek's share price.

However, the management is optimistic and is projecting 40-50% revenue growth in UK healthcare next year due to the government’s modernisation commitment, including increased funding and a 10-year health plan.

Going vroom: Endurance Tech rides EV momentum, with strong order wins and German expansion

Automotive component manufacturer Endurance Technologies has operations in India, Italy and Germany. It supplies aluminum castings, suspensions, transmissions, braking, and battery management systems.

Endurance Tech has been on a good streak. Strong order wins and good execution have led to rising revenue and net profit for the past nine quarters. This trend is expected to continue in Q4FY25.

Endurance Tech’s strong order execution to continue in Q4FY25

As of Dec'24, the company secured Rs 3,341 crore in new orders from India and €244 million from Europe. 84% of the latter is linked to EVs or hybrids. In India, the EV order backlog stands at Rs 960 crore, including orders from Bajaj Auto.

The company is expanding its presence in Europe, which contributes to around 23% of the total revenue. In December 2024, Endurance Tech acquired a 60% stake in Stoferle, a German company, for € 37.7 million to strengthen its presence in Germany. However, Trump’s new tariffs have led several European automakers to cut forecasts, which could weigh on demand for Endurance Tech.

Super-sized orders. But can it deliver?: QatarEnergy deal powers L&T

On March 26, this Nifty 50 giant won its largest-ever project—an eye-popping $4 billion order from QatarEnergy LNG. The company’s order book is on the rise. As of Q3FY25, it reached Rs 5.64 trillion, with 58% from domestic projects and the remaining 42% from international markets.

The infrastructure projects segment continues to anchor growth, posting a 14.7% YoY revenue in Q3 and accounting for nearly half (49.5%) of total revenue in the quarter.

Analysts expect revenue and profit to grow YoY and QoQ in Q4FY25, driven by strong execution, especially in the international order book.

Strong order execution in the international segment to drive L&T's revenue

Despite the surge in new orders, investors are concerned about the company’s ability to execute such a massive order backlog while maintaining profitability. While these large order wins sound impressive, they can sometimes be margin-dilutive.

Growth amid uncertainty: Capex-fueled growth for Hindalco, but tariffs cause jitters

On April 1, this metals and mining company announced a $10 billion capex plan through FY29 to scale production at Hindalco and its US subsidiary Novelis significantly.

The investment will fund capacity expansions across India's aluminium and copper operations, while Novelis aims to add approximately 800,000 tonnes of aluminium capacity globally by FY27. Following the investor day, brokerages including ICICI Securities, Anand Rathi, and Axis Direct reiterated their ‘Buy’ ratings, citing long-term growth potential.

Hindalco’s Indian business to drive revenue growth in Q4FY25

In Q3, the company’s aluminium upstream revenue rose 25% YoY, driven by higher average aluminium prices. Downstream aluminium revenue also increased 25% on the back of higher volumes. Analysts anticipate strong performance in Q4, led by strong growth in Indian operations.

However, shares are down 9.4% in April, impacted by recent tariff-related announcements.

Novelis, Hindalco’s US subsidiary, is largely insulated from tariffs due to its reliance on aluminium scrap, which isn’t tariffed. However, Hindalco's direct aluminium exports to the US are expected to decline due to the tariffs, which could affect profitability.

Screener: Stocks rising in the past quarter with high durability scores and 20%+ Forecaster target price upsides

Forecaster expects banking stocks to rise the most in the next year

As the Q4 results season kicks off, we look at stocks with the highest upside potential over the next 12 months, according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. This screener shows stocks rising more than 5% in the past quarter with strong durability scores, and where Forecaster sees at least a 20% target price upside.

The screener consists of stocks from the banking, housing finance, aerospace & defence, construction & engineering, and heavy electrical equipment industries. Major stocks that feature in the screener are NBCC (India), Adani Ports & SEZ, Transformers & Rectifiers (India), Balrampur Chini Mills, Indian Bank, Aadhar Housing, PNB Housing Finance, and Union Bank of India.

NBCC (India) appears in the screener with the highest Forecaster target price upside of 31.4%. The stock has risen 7.1% over the last quarter, helped by multiple order wins and project sales. Analysts believe the construction and engineering company's consistent growth in infrastructure and residential real estate projects positions it well for long-term growth. They expect NBCC’s order book to expand on the back of continued public sector projects and increasing demand for urban development.

Transformers & Rectifiers (India) also appears in the screener with a Forecaster target price upside of 25.8%. This heavy electrical equipment company’s stock price increased by 11% over the past quarter, driven by strong Q4FY25 results. Its revenue and net profit grew 33% YoY to Rs 683.4 crore and 135.8% YoY to Rs 94.2 crore during the quarter. Analysts at ICICI Direct are positive about the company due to a strong order book of Rs 5,132 crore and further bid prospects of Rs 22,000 crore.

You can find more screeners here.

The Baseline

15 Apr 2025

Chart of the week: Capex surge puts order books of railway companies on the fast track

By Omkar Chitnis

The Indian railway sector is one of the largest railway networks in the world, and has become a focus of government investment. The centre’s push for long-overdue network expansion and modernization has created new growth opportunities for the sector.

In FY26, the Union Budget allocated Rs 2.62 lakh crore to Indian Railways – 22.7% of the total budget, and three times the Rs 0.93 lakh crore allocated in FY16. The goals were expanding freight capacity, modernising infrastructure, and improving safety.

Is this a new golden age for railway stocks? The increased capex, and the government focus on better railway infrastructure has accelerated growth in railway projects, creating a ripple effect on railway-related stocks, which have seen strong order inflows.

The government’s investments in railway and metro projects have driven share price growth in key sectors. Wagon and coach manufacturers such as Titagarh Rail, Texmaco Rail, and Jupiter Wagons won orders for freight wagons, passenger coaches, and metro cars.

Infrastructure providers like IRCON International and RVNL capitalized on electrification and station upgrade orders, while financing companies like IRFC supported the sector by funding railway projects and infrastructure development.

Industry experts expect railways to remain a priority, as the government reduces logistics costs and increases freight share. Ashish Modani, Vice President at ICRA, said, “Roads and railways will be the government’s top priorities due to their critical role in lowering logistics costs. Over the years, the rail share in freight transportation has declined, and there’s a strong push to reverse this trend.”

Despite great returns over 5 years, railway stocks have faced a downturn in 2025, primarily due to weak government spending and negative sentiment in global markets. Concerns over high valuations and delays in order execution have added to the uncertainty.

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyze railway stocks and their growing order books over the past five years.

Government spending fuels growth for wagon and coach makers

In FY26, the government allocated Rs 57,693 crore for 200 Vande Bharat sleeper trains, 100 Amrit Bharat trains, 50 Namo Bharat rapid rail trains, and 17,500 non-AC coaches. These initiatives are creating opportunities for companies in the wagon and coach manufacturing sector.

Titagarh Rail Systems, Jupiter Wagons, and Texmaco Rail & Engineering collectively control 70% of the Indian wagon manufacturing market.

Titagarh Rail Systems, a commercial vehicle industry player specializing in railway wagons, coaches, and metro trains, holds a 30% market share in freight wagon production. Its share price is up 2,100% in the past five years, driven by an order book growing at a CAGR of 62.1%. The company more or less relies on one client, the government – it receives nearly 99% of its orders from the Ministry of Defence and the Railways.

Between FY19 and FY24, Titagarh’s revenue grew at a CAGR of 19.5%, reaching Rs 3,893 crore. Over the same period, it shifted from a Rs 28.5 crore loss to a profit of Rs 286 crore.

Jupiter Wagons generates 80% of its revenue from railway wagons. Its share price has risen 600% in the past five years. As of FY25, the order book stands at Rs 6,320 crore, with 50% coming from government orders.

In FY23, the company secured a large order of Rs 58,200 crore from the Ministry of Defence and Railways. Over the last five years, the company’s revenue grew at a CAGR of 76% to Rs 3,641 crore in FY24, and its net profit increased by 30% to Rs 333 crore during the same period.

Texmaco operates in freight wagons, rail, and electrical businesses, with a 20% market share in India’s wagon industry. It generates 84% of its revenue from wagons. Over the last five years, its share price has jumped 540%, and the order book has grown at a CAGR of 25.3% to Rs 7,878 crore in FY24.

The company derives 80% of its revenue from government projects. Revenue grew at a 13.5% CAGR to Rs 3,503 crore, while profit increased at an 8.4% CAGR to Rs 113 crore from FY19 to FY24.

BEML manufactures commercial vehicles for mining and construction, along with rail coaches, metro cars, and components for the railway sector. It generates 37.4% of its revenue from rail and metro projects. Its share price is up 440% in the last five years. Over this period, revenue grew at a CAGR of 3.2%, reaching Rs 4,096 crore, while net profit grew at a CAGR of 34.8% to Rs 281.8 crore from FY19 to FY24.

RVNL and IRCON ride Centre’s railway infra project wave

The government is expanding railway infrastructure to reduce logistics costs, streamline transportation, and support trade and economic development. In the FY26 budget, the government allocated Rs 32,235 crore for new railway lines.

RVNL, a Navratna PSU, specializes in railway infrastructure within the Construction & Engineering industry. RVNL’s shares have gained 1,790% over the last five years. The order book stood at Rs 97,000 crore at the end of the December quarter, 4.8 times its trailing 12-month revenue. The company derives 91.3% of its revenue from railway projects, with the rest from metro and national highway projects.

Its revenue increased from Rs 14,776.26 crore in FY20 to Rs 23,074 crore in FY24, while net profit doubled from Rs 753.32 crore to Rs 1,574 crore over the same period. Government-backed initiatives like railway electrification and the introduction of the Vande Bharat train have driven RVNL’s growth.

IRCON International operates in the construction and engineering industry, focusing on railways, highways, and bridges. Its shares have risen 250% over the past five years. As of Q3FY25, the company’s order book totals Rs 21,939 crore, with 78% of the revenue from railway projects and the rest from highways.

IRFC and RailTel drive railway growth through funding and digitisation

The government is modernizing Indian Railways through investments from financing institutions like IRFC. Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) is a Navratna PSU and a Non-Banking Financial Company. It serves as the financing arm of Indian Railways for large-scale expansion and upgrades. Since its listing in January 2021, IRFC’s share price has jumped 400% to Rs 124.

IRFC’s asset under management (AUM) has risen 6.5 times, from Rs 70,471 crore in FY20 to Rs 4,64,641 crore in FY24. The NBFC finances around 80% of Indian Railways’ needs.

RailTel offers telecom and digital services to Indian Railways, focusing on projects like train communication systems, real-time monitoring, and station upgrades. Since its listing in 2021, the company's share price has increased by 145%, reaching Rs 292. Its order book grew from Rs 4,400 crore in FY21 to Rs 5,280 crore in FY25, with 28% linked to railway contracts.

The Baseline

11 Apr 2025, 05:20PM

Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 11, 2025

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo):

Thisairline company surged 3% over the past week and is trading near its 52-week high after announcing apartnership with French hospitality firm Accor to enter the hospitality sector. Together, IndiGo and Accor will acquire a majority stake in India’s budget hotel chain, Treebo.

The airline adds one new aircraft to its fleet every week, a trend expected to continue until 2030. This expansion is fueled by growing demand, driven by rising middle-class income and the opening of new airports across India. With 65% of the world’s population located within 5-6 hours from India, IndiGo sees significant growth opportunities in international connectivity and is expanding aggressively.

Due to its rapid expansion,Forecaster expects IndiGo to report sales growth in FY25 but anticipates that margins will be negatively impacted on a YoY basis. However, they project that margin and net profit growth will return to a positive trajectory starting in FY26. IndiGo has launched “Strech,” a business class seating option, introduced a loyalty program, and expanded its cargo division to improve its margins. The airline currently offers business class services on three routes and aims to cover thirteen routes by the end of 2025.

InQ3, the airline’s net profit was lower YoY, primarily due to foreign exchange losses on lease liabilities denominated in US dollars. However, when excluding the impact of these forex losses, IndiGo reported a net profit growth of 26% YoY in Q3. To mitigate these losses, CFO Gaurav Negisaid, “We will further enhance our hedging positions, and as we add more international capacity, we expect the natural hedge to also improve.” He believes that expanding international capacity will serve as a “natural hedge” due to cash inflows in the form of US dollars.

According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, 21 analysts have a consensus recommendation of “Buy”, with an average target price of 5,385.Analysts at Motilal Oswal expect IndiGo to benefit from India’s aviation sector's growth and expansion into international destinations.

2. Jubilant Foodworks:

This QSR player has gained over 59.5% from its 52-week low of Rs 429.6. On April 5, Jubilant Foodworks released its business update for Q4FY25, showing a 33.9% YoY increase in revenue at Rs 2,107 crore. The company features in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased shareholding over the past quarter.

Jubilant Foodworks is the master franchise for brands like Domino’s Pizza, Popeyes and Dunkin’ Donuts in India. During the quarter, Domino’s Pizza reported like-for-like or LFL growth of 12.1% YoY. LFL growth stood at 12.5% in the December quarter, driven by improvements in home delivery orders.

The company has risen 61.1% in the past two years, underperforming the broader hotels, restaurant & tourism sector by 41.1% points. Over the past 8–9 quarters, QSR (quick service restaurant) chains have faced pressures due to weak demand and tough market conditions. Delivery remained strong, but dine-in and takeaway slowed down. However, the management highlighted recovery in dine-in sales and expects growth in the coming quarters.

Meanwhile, the company continued to expand its store network in Q4FY25 and opened 52 new Domino’s outlets, taking the total to 2,179 stores in India. Commenting on this, Sameer Khetarpal, the MD and CEO, said, “We plan to add 1,000 new Domino’s and around 150 Popeyes stores over the next three years as demand momentum remains upbeat.”

Analysts highlight that demand for fast-food chains is improving, driven by better affordability and a recovery in dine-in sales. This trend is likely to strengthen in FY26 as discretionary incomes rise following personal income tax cuts.

Motilal Oswal gives a ‘Hold’ rating on Jubilant Foodworks with a target price of Rs 715. The brokerage believes that improving the menu and promotional strategies for dine-in will be key in boosting footfall and orders moving forward.

3. Hindustan Unilever:

This personal products company rose by 5.4% in the past week. On April 8th the company’s demerged entity, Magnum Ice Cream Company, signed an MoU with the Maharashtra government to set up a Global Capability Center (GCC) for its ice cream business in Pune. Maharashtra CM, Devendra Fadnavis, said, “This Rs 900 crore investment will generate over 1,000 jobs and is Unilever’s largest Global Capability Centre (GCC) to date.”

To prepare for the Environment Ministry's April 1st mandate requiring recycled plastic use, the company acquired a 14.3% stake in Lucro Plastecycle Private, a plastic recycling firm, on March 20th. This strategic investment aims to ensure compliance and mitigate potential sales risks within the FMCG sector.

Trendlyne’s forecaster predicts the company's revenue and net profit will decline by 0.7% and 16.3% in Q4FY25. The negative estimates are due to inflationary material prices and flat growth in the previous quarter for the Beauty & Personal Care segment, which is the largest contributor at 36.6% of sales. However, the FMCG sector’s resilience and strong domestic demand have made it a preferred investment amid rising market volatility with Trump’s tariffs and recession fears. It appears on the screener for stocks in the ‘Buy’ zone.

Ritesh Tiwari, Executive Director & CFO of HUL, said, “If commodity prices remain where they are, we expect low single-digit price growth in the near term. With inflationary material prices, we expect to maintain EBITDA at the lower end of 23-24%. Along with our ice cream business demerger we've also entered an agreement to acquire a stake in premium beauty brand ‘Minimalist’, aligning with our strategy to pursue bolt-on acquisitions and strengthen our Beauty & Wellbeing portfolio.”

KR Choksey expects strategic acquisitions and premiumization efforts to support long term growth recovery for HUL. Subsequently, the brokerage has maintained its ‘Accumulate’ rating on the stock. The brokerage has lowered its FY26 & FY27 adjusted EPS estimates by 1.5% and 2% respectively, factoring in the Q3FY25 performance.

4. IRB Infrastructure Developers:

This roads & highways stock rose 5.9% on Tuesday as its toll collections increased 15.8% YoY to Rs 556.8 crore in March. Toll revenue for FY25 jumped 23% YoY to Rs 6,360 crore. The recent decline in Indian markets has helped the stock to feature in a screener of stocks with above-line growth and below-line valuations.

An improvement in the company’s monthly and yearly collections for the IRB MP Expressway, IRB Ahmedabad Vadodara Super Express Tollway, and CG Tollway helped its toll revenue improve in March and FY25.

Speaking on its Q4FY25 update, the company’s Deputy Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Amitabh Murarka, said, “With a strong finish to FY25 and strong growth in toll revenue, we expect the trajectory to continue, driven by budget allocations aimed at boosting consumption and tourism, which will increase traffic on our assets in 12 states."

Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects the company’s net profit to grow by 10.5% YoY to Rs 208.7 crore in Q4FY25. However, revenue is expected to decline by 22.1% YoY to Rs 1,949.8 crore.

In Q3FY25, the stock’s revenue grew by 2.9% YoY to Rs 2,025.4 crore. Meanwhile, its net profit surged by 32.2x to Rs 6,026.1 crore during the quarter, helped by lower road work and site expenses, and fair value gains of Rs 5,804.1 crore from investments made in joint ventures.

Speaking on the order book, Anil Yadav, Director of Investor Relations of the company, stated, “Our total order book now stands at approximately Rs 31,500 crores, with an executable order book of Rs 6,000 crores in the next two years. We expect further growth in the order book, with the government’s push for public-private partnership (PPP) projects gaining momentum and bidding for BOT and TOT projects already underway.”

5 institutional analysts have a consensus recommendation of “Buy”, with an average target price of Rs 63.6 per share, indicating an upside of 39.5%.

5. Sobha:

This Bengaluru-based realty company rose 5.7% on April 8 after announcing its Q4FY25 business update. Sobha’s total sales increased by 22.1% YoY to Rs 1,836 crore, driven by higher volumes from new launches in Bengaluru, which contributed 76.6 % of total sales.

During the quarter, the company sold 15.6 lakh sq ft of area, a 16.3% rise YoY. The average price was Rs 11,781 per sq ft, down 13.8% QoQ due to a higher share of mid-income projects, but it rose 4.5% YoY. Bengaluru alone accounted for Rs 1,406 crore in sales, supported by two project launches, Sobha Madison Heights and Sobha Hamptons. Other regions like Gurgaon, Hyderabad and Tamil Nadu also performed well during the quarter.

Despite a good recent quarter, Sobha’s total sales declined 5.5% YoY for FY25 to Rs 6,277 crore due to a weak H1 impacted by launch delays and slower sales in premium projects. Despite lower sales, the average price rose 22.8% YoY to Rs 13,412 per sq ft, aided by a higher share of own land projects and selective price hikes.

The company missed its FY25 presales guidance of Rs 8,500 crore, to which Jagadish Nangineni, the company's Managing Director, pointed to “the regulatory delay in Sobha Townpark, and the slower pace of sales in some of our projects where the ticket size is large.”

Sobha plans to launch 210 lakh sq ft of residential and 11.9 lakh sq ft of commercial space across 10 cities in the next 4-6 quarters. Management expects to add Greater Noida, Hosur, and Mumbai to its operating locations in the next financial year, expanding its real estate presence to 15 cities.

Following the business update, HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, citing its launch pipeline and an improving regulatory environment. They expect presales of Rs 9,000-10,000 crore in FY26, supported by geographical expansion and product diversification.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

10 Apr 2025, 12:31PM

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 10, 2025

By Divyansh Pokharna

The Indian stock market saw declines since April 7, with the Nifty 50 down 2.2%. This came after US President Trump announced a 26% reciprocal tariff on Indian imports on April 2. The fall was part of a broader global sell-off as investors moved to safer assets like US Treasury bonds and gold. On Wednesday, with the US stock and bond market falling, Trump announced a 90 day pause on higher tariffs for most countries while the US negotiates deals.

Despite the volatility, some analysts still see value in a few stocks. Here are five stocks with a ‘Buy’ rating from analysts. Two of them, Hindalco Industries and Prestige Estates, hit new 52-week lows in the week. The other three are down over 20% from their year highs.

1. PTC Industries:

ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this industrial products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 20,070. This indicates an upside of 52.4%. Aeroalloy Technologies (ATL), a unit of PTC Industries, received a long-term order on March 28 from Safran Aircraft Engines to supply seven cast parts for LEAP-1A (Airbus A320neo engines) and LEAP-1B (Boeing 737 Max engines). This order comes as PTC is expanding capacity at its Uttar Pradesh Defence Industrial Corridor.

Analysts Amit Dixit, Mohit Lohia and Pritish Urumka believe this deal could boost PTC’s earnings in the near term. They highlight that ATL is emerging as a key local supplier for Safran to support LEAP engine production, which powers many domestic airline fleets.

Dixit, Lohia, and Urumka expect PTC to add major capacities in 2025. This includes starting a new metal melting unit by April and expanding its casting and forging facilities by the end of the year. They project the company’s revenue to grow at a 104% CAGR over FY25-27.

2. Power Grid Corporation of India:

Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this electric utility company with a target price of Rs 350, indicating an upside potential of 19.2%. In Q3FY25, Power Grid secured 11 transmission projects under the tariff-based competitive bidding (TBCB) framework. The company spent Rs 17,651 crore on capex during 9MFY25. As of December 2024, its order book stood at Rs 1.4 lakh crore.

Analysts believe that the government’s plan to increase renewable energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030, along with the national electricity plan (NEP) investment of Rs 9.2 lakh crore for transmission lines, provides Power Grid with an opportunity to secure inter-state transmission system (ISTS) projects worth Rs 1.9 lakh crore by FY32.

The management is targeting a capitalization of Rs 25,000 crore, with capex guidance of over Rs 28,000 crore by FY26. Analysts expect Power Grid to invest approximately Rs 3.3 lakh crore until FY32, driven by renewable energy capacity additions. They project a 6% CAGR in net profit over FY25- 27.

3. Prestige Estates Projects:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this Bangalore-based realty firm with a target price of Rs 1,725, indicating a potential upside of 59.8%. Prestige Estates Projects (PEPL) has a diverse portfolio covering residential, office, retail, and hospitality segments. The company added 15 million square feet (msf) of new projects in 9MFY25. Analysts Abhishek Lodhiya and Yohan Batliwala highlight that with a launch pipeline of Rs 80,000 crore, PEPL’s presales are expected to grow at a 14% CAGR, reaching Rs 31,500 crore by FY27.

The company is expanding its commercial and hospitality segments, adding 43 msf of commercial space. It expects rental income from this segment to grow at a 53% CAGR and reach Rs 1,950 crore by FY27. In the hospitality segment, analysts expect revenue to rise annually by 20%, based on estimates for about 3,000 hotel rooms, out of a total pipeline of 4,760 rooms planned in the near term.

Lodhiya and Batliwala note that the company’s upcoming launches and strong pipeline are not fully reflected in the current stock price. They estimate PEPL's net asset value (NAV) at Rs 56,900 crore and expect its net profit to grow at a 10.6% CAGR over FY25-27.

4. Hindalco Industries:

Anand Rathi retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this aluminium company with a target price of Rs 800, indicating an upside potential of 41.8%. Analysts Parthiv Jhonsa and Prakhar Khajanchi believe the company’s recent announcements strengthen its long-term growth visibility.

At the 2025 Investor Day, Hindalco announced a $10 billion capex plan covering both Novelis (its subsidiary), and its India operations. Novelis aims to raise its recycled content from 63% to 75%, cut emissions, and improve return on capital. The company reiterated its long-term EBITDA/tonne guidance of over $600, supported by scale, better pricing, and a stronger product mix. Its 6 lakh tonne Bay Minette facility in the US is on track for completion in H2CY26 and is expected to deliver $1,000/tonne EBITDA at peak utilization.

In India, Hindalco plans to increase its aluminium smelting capacity to 15 lakh tonnes from the current 13.5 lakh tonnes and downstream capacity from 4.3 lakh tonnes to 6 lakh tonnes by FY28. It has earmarked Rs 5,200 crore to expand alumina, copper, and specialty alumina capacities.

5. J K Paper:

Geojit BNP Paribas initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this paper manufacturer with a target price of Rs 392. This indicates a potential upside of 25.6%. The company’s Q3FY35 sales volume, however, fell by 6% YoY, and net sales dropped 4.4% YoY to Rs 1,632 crore due to weak domestic demand and increased paper imports.

Analyst Sheen notes that in Q3FY25, JK Paper’s EBITDA margin declined by 1,155 bps to 10.3% due to rising raw material costs and high wood prices. The analyst expects the company’s margins to improve from FY26 onwards, supported by easing raw material costs, increased demand for packaging boards, and a diversified product mix.

Over the past three years, JK Paper has expanded into the packaging business through acquisitions in the corrugated (cardboard containers) packaging segment. The analyst is optimistic that government initiatives, such as import tariffs, agroforestry support, and eco-friendly incentives, will help the company tackle competition, stabilize costs, and improve profitability.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

09 Apr 2025

Tariffs are the only story right now | Screener: Companies with large revenues from the US

The modern American, however worldly-wise, has not really experienced tariffs.

For that, you need to ask an Indian. Let's take televisions, for instance. Most American households had a television in their living rooms by the late 1950s. Americans were watching TV dramas like Mary Kay and Johnny in the 1950s, The Dick Van Dyke Show in the 1960s, The Brady Bunch in the 1970s.

But TVs reached most Indian homes only by the 1980s (a national telecast began in 1982), decades after the US. A big reason for this was Indian tariffs which kept foreign products and new technology out of Indian hands. If you wanted to time travel, you could visit India in the 1980s, a nation stuck in the past - people were driving Premier Padminis (a 1960s car), using Indian made refrigerators, and eating Mars bars and Toblerones only when someone visited from "foreign". Coca Cola aired the iconic "I'd like to buy the world a Coke" ad in 1971, but it got kicked out of India in 1977 and returned only in 1993 (to be fair, the domestic substitute Campa Cola was pretty decent).

So color me surprised that the United States now wants to block itself from the world with the highest tariff rates in a century. US President Trump, after implementing tariffs ranging from 104% on China to 10% on Australia, has promised Americans that they are somehow going to get a lot richer with tariffs.

Not many people are buying the "good for America" claim:

"A huge policy mistake and a tax on American consumers" - Ken Griffin, billionaire investor and Republican megadonor

"Unambiguously stupid" - Jay Hatfield, CEO, Infrastructure Capital Advisors

"You can’t go to the bathroom because who knows what’s going to happen” - Peter Tchir, Strategy Head, Academy Securities

Meanwhile, Apple stores across the US are packed with customers buying the phones before prices go up (estimates put the iPhone price in the US doubling with tariffs). Among the biggest hit stocks are the Magnificent-7 (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft and Tesla), which have lost $1.5 trillion in market value over the past few days.

The tariffs seem perfectly designed to crash American growth, as well as cause a recession in many parts of the global economy. But even in a bad scene, there are relative winners and losers.

In this week's Analyticks:

Tariff chaos: What does the impact on India look like?

Screener: Indian companies with high revenue exposure to the US market

Some countries are better off than others

In human history, trade has been a consistent winner. Global trade has averaged 4% in annual growth since the Mongol invasion in the 12th century. Trump is unlikely to be the one to break this pattern. Still, the damage to global supply chains, even if temporary, is significant.

India's stock market has see-sawed with the tariff announcements, but the trade data points to limited direct exposure. India's US exports account for 2.2% of its GDP. "India has relatively low dependence on the US for exports," Crisil analysts note. Vietnam in comparison, has 23% of its GDP coming from exports to the US, and 9% for Thailand.

A few Indian sectors take the lion's share in our US exports. Capital goods, textiles and pharmaceuticals have substantial shares.

Some sub-industries however, have a disproportionate share of export revenue coming from the US. 38% of India's dairy exports by value go the US, as do 28% of iron and steel products and 22% of agrochemical exports.

It's now a game of relative advantage

One advantage India may have in the new US tariff regime is in the difference in tariff rates. India's level of 26% is lower than what the US has imposed on big exporters like China, Vietnam and Bangladesh. This may drive players to shift operations - from Vietnam to India for Samsung and Nike, and from China to India for Apple.

Supply chains however, take a lot of time to move between countries. Apple still makes around 85% of its iPhones in China, even though it has been expanding production in India since 2017. Much of the equipment and machinery in Apple's Indian factories are still made in China.

But even as we assess tradeoffs and relative advantages, the fact remains that Trump, the Mad King with his chart of death, can change these numbers around on a whim and upend global markets week to week (he's already gleefully promising more pharma tariffs).

A trade deal here and there could bring tariffs down for some countries. But while markets hate uncertainty, Trump, a veteran of six bankruptcies, looks like someone who is unbothered by chaos.

Screener: Indian companies with high revenue exposure to the US market

IT stocks decline after Trump imposes tariffs on Indian imports

As FY26 kicks off, the Indian equity market is under pressure, witnessing a sharp sell-off. Amid escalating global trade tensions sparked by US tariffs, foreign investors have offloaded Rs 22,770 crore worth of Indian equities, leading to a 4.6% decline in the Nifty 50 index from April 1st. The screener highlights stocks that generate the most revenue from the US market.

The screener primarily consists of stocks from the IT consulting & software, construction & engineering, pharmaceuticals, and auto parts & equipment sectors. Notable stocks featured includeBharat Forge, Birlasoft, Mphasis, Persistent Systems, Hexaware Technologies, LTIMindtree, Bharat Forge, Zensar Technologies, and Welspun Living.

Bharat Forge features in the screener after falling 17.7% over the past week, touching a new 52-week low of Rs 919. The sharp decline comes as the US imposes a 25% tariff on automobiles and auto parts.

In Q3FY25, this industrial products manufacturer derived 74% of its revenue from the US market by supplying parts for Class 8 trucks and OEM parts to automotive companies. The 25% tariff on auto parts increases export costs, reduces demand, impacts revenue, and makes the company less competitive in the US.

In Q3FY25, revenue fell by 10%, and it reported a loss of Rs 19.5 crore due to lower sales of defense products on both a QoQ and YoY basis. On February 19, the company received a letter of intent (LOI) from AM General, USA, to supply advanced artillery cannons to the United States.

Birlasoft also features in the screener after falling 10.6% over the past week. This IT Consulting company derived 86% of its revenue from the US market in Q3FY25. The manufacturing sector and banking and financial services account for 64% of its revenue.

Trump has not imposed tariffs on the Indian IT sector. However, tariffs will likely increase costs for Indian tech’s American customers across sectors, leading them to reduce spending on IT services and postpone discretionary spending. This could extend deal cycles, delay projects, and weaken IT sector growth. A US recession could deepen these impacts further.

In Q3FY25, Birlasoft’s net profit fell 27.3% YoY, while revenue grew slightly by 0.9% YoY, impacted by seasonally weak demand and a drop in net new deals.

You can find more screenershere.

The Baseline

09 Apr 2025

Chart of the week: Gear shift in two-wheeler market: Hero loses ground to Honda & TVS

By Omkar Chitnis

India’s two-wheeler market is caught up in a high-speed race, with a diverse lineup of models competing for the spotlight. Two-wheeler volume grew 30%, reaching 18.7 million units in FY25, up from 13.8 million units in FY13.

Over the past decade, Indian two-wheeler manufacturers have launched new models across all segments to stay competitive. Strategic global collaborations have further fueled innovation, enabling Indian players to bring fresh, premium offerings to consumers.

Hero MotoCorp collaborated with Harley-Davidson to develop the X440 series motorcycles, while TVS partnered with BMW Motorrad to launch premium bikes over 300cc. Similarly, Bajaj Auto joined Triumph Motorcycles to introduce mid-capacity bikes. These partnerships and new launches helped the Indian companies tap the growing demand for mid-capacity and premium bikes.

But the road hasn’t been smooth for Hero. Hero’s pole position has been under threat since 2013, while Honda and TVS Motors are expanding their market presence. Changing consumer preferences, innovative product strategies, and a growing focus on premium motorcycles and electric models are reshaping the industry.

Before Hero and Honda parted ways in 2011, Hero Honda dominated the two-wheeler space with a 68.9% market share. The split created an opportunity for other manufacturers to expand and challenge Hero’s leadership. Today, four major players – Hero MotoCorp, Honda, TVS Motor, and Bajaj Auto – control nearly 80% of the market, and the landscape is shifting fast.

Honda is going after Hero for the top spot. Minoru Kato, Executive Officer at Honda Motor Co., said, “We have launched highly competitive products of all kinds. With the advantage of 6,000 dealers and service networks covering all the geographies of India, we have increased unit sales. Now, the number one position is well within our sight.”

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyze Hero MotoCorp’s declining market share, the rise of its competitors, shifting consumer preferences, and the growth of the electric two-wheeler segment.

Hero’s market share dips amid limited product portfolio

Hero MotoCorp has remained India and the world’s largest two-wheeler manufacturer for 24 years. However, its market share declined from 48% in CY13 to 28% in FY25. The company sold 58.9 lakh two-wheelers in FY25, recording a 5.5% increase from the previous year. Hero's sales growth has been slow, with a 5-year CAGR of just 2.2%. In contrast, TVS sales have grown at a CAGR of 14.2% over the same period.

Hero generates 93% of its revenue from motorcycles, with 80% from just the Splendor and HF Deluxe models. Scooters contribute just 7% to their total revenue. The company faces intense competition from Honda, TVS, and Suzuki.

Hero is mainly recognized as a commuter brand focused on entry-level motorcycles, making it difficult to establish its credibility in the premium segment, priced above Rs 2 lakh. This positioning has restricted its ability to build a strong brand presence for models above 150cc, as its new models accounted for only 7% of sales in the first nine months of FY25.

TVS Motors has strengthened its market position, increasing its share from 13% in FY13 to 17.4% in FY25. Its scooter market share rose from 32% to 46% during the same period.

TVS maintains a balanced revenue mix, generating 49% of its revenue from motorcycles, 38% from scooters, and the rest from mopeds. In motorcycles, new models have significantly contributed to growth. The Apache series and Raider accounted for 70% of total motorcycle sales, while models launched in 9MFY25 accounted for 20% of the segment’s sales.

TVS gained a foothold in the premium segment early by launching multiple variants in the Apache series in 2016. Hero entered this category in Q3FY25 with six premium models, including the Xpulse 200, Xtreme 160R, and Mavrick 440. Honda holds a 25.3% market share, supported by its presence in both the scooter and motorcycle segments.

Peers challenge Hero’s rural presence

Hero remains a dominant player in rural markets due to its affordable, fuel-efficient motorcycles designed for local needs, with over 55% of its sales coming from rural areas. Its commuter motorcycles, including the Splendor, Passion, and HF Deluxe, continue to lead the segment. In FY24, the Splendor held a 26.5% market share among commuter bikes, while the HF Deluxe maintained an 8.3% share.

TVS and Bajaj have also expanded their presence in rural India. TVS increased its rural market share from 15.5% in FY18 to 45% in FY24, driven by entry-level models like Star City, Jupiter, and Radeon, priced between Rs 75,000 and Rs 1 lakh. Bajaj's rural market share rose from 12.7% to 13.9% as it focused on entry-level motorcycles. The company introduced Discover, Platina, CT series, and CNG-powered Freedom 125 for rural buyers.

Honda, on the other hand, generates 70% of its sales from urban areas. The Activa remains the top-selling urban commuter model, contributing 38.8% of Honda’s sales. In FY24, Honda sold four Activa scooters every minute. But over the past decade, Honda has expanded its rural and semi-urban network from 1,950 outlets in 2013 to 6,000 in 2025. This growth, supported by models like the Shine 100 and SP125, strengthened its presence in urban and rural markets.

Royal Enfield leads the shift to premium bikes

A decade ago, the premium motorcycle segment was relatively overlooked. It is now growing rapidly, with more consumers choosing bikes above 250cc for better performance and advanced features. The shift towards aspirational, higher-capacity motorcycles is driven by rising disposable income, a younger demographic, and evolving consumer preferences.

Royal Enfield continues to dominate the premium motorcycle segment. In the 250–700cc category, it holds an 88.2% market share, led by models like the Classic, Meteor, and Himalayan.

Bajaj Auto is expanding in the 350–500 cc category through partnerships with KTM and Triumph, introducing models like the KTM 390 and the Bajaj Dominar 400. Hero MotoCorp entered the premium segment in Q3FY25 with six models, including the Karizma XMR and Mavrick, along with collaborations with Harley-Davidson.

Honda plans to launch three new premium bikes in India next year under the Rebel series through its BigWing network in the 300cc and 500cc segments to compete with Royal Enfield’s dominance in this market.

TVS has also gained traction in the premium segment. Its partnership with BMW Motorrad has increased its motorcycle volume above 310cc, rising from 1.1% of total sales in FY20 to 11.8% in FY24. In the 150–200cc category, TVS holds a 40% market share, led by the Apache series, Ronin, and Commando.

Government push is reshaping the electric two-wheeler segment

India’s electric two-wheeler market grew 33% YoY in CY24 to 19 lakh units. Despite this growth, EVs account for only 5% of total two-wheeler sales. Government initiatives like the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME) scheme and lower GST rates continue to support adoption, especially in rural and semi-urban areas.

Ola Electric leads the EV segment with a 30% market share and a 1.9% share of the overall two-wheeler market. However, its market share has dropped from 52% in early 2024 to 30% in FY25. Bajaj Auto’s Chetak electric scooter holds a 20% market share, benefiting from the FAME II subsidy, which has helped lower costs and expand its reach.

TVS Motor is the second-largest electric scooter manufacturer, holding a 21% market share. It sold 2.3 lakh iQube in FY25, a 30% year-on-year growth. The company has benefited from the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, which supports the iQube scooter and TVS X production.

Hero MotoCorp entered the EV market in late 2022 and has grown rapidly. Management expects support for its Vida electric scooter under the PLI scheme. Vida’s sales surged 174% year-on-year to 48,673 units in FY25. Additionally, Hero owns a 40% stake in Ather Energy. Its sales rose 20% YoY to 1.3 lakh units in FY25, supported by EMPS 2024 incentives.

In Q3FY25, Honda Motorcycle & Scooter entered the EV segment with its Activa E and QC models. The company plans to introduce 30 electric models globally by 2030, signaling its long-term commitment to the space

The Baseline

04 Apr 2025

Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 4, 2025

By Trendlyne Analysis

1.Larsen & Toubro:

This construction conglomerate is up 2% over the past month after receiving orders worth over Rs 30,000 crore. In late March, L&T secured its largest order to date, worth over Rs 15,000 crore from QatarEnergy LNG, to establish two offshore complexes.

L&T continues to reduce orderbook risks from domestic fluctuations in recent quarters, with a growing number of orders now coming from international clients. L&T Management has expressed confidence in easily surpassing the 10% order inflow growth target set for FY25, as they anticipate that capital expenditures in India will pick up starting in Q4, supported by a strong international pipeline.Forecaster projects revenue to increase by 18.4% YoY in Q4, with net profit expected to rise by 8%.

The company’s net working capital to sales ratio improved significantly, declining by 390 bps in December 2024, driven by robust customer collections during the quarter. P. Ramakrishnan, Head of Investor Relations, expects the ratio to remain at this level in FY25. The company appears in a screener of stocks that efficiently utilise their capital to enhance return on employed capital.

Thanks to free cash flow generation over the past couple of years, Ramakrishnan says, “The company is stepping up capital allocation into newer business areas like green energy, data centres and semiconductor design.” These initiatives are expected to bear fruit in the company’s upcoming Lakshya plan for FY27-31.

Geojit BNP Paribas maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on L&T. The brokerage anticipates that a strong order pipeline will drive revenue growth at a CAGR of 16% over FY25-27. With a target price of Rs 3,863, the stock has a potential upside of over 18%.

2. Tata Motors:

This car and utility vehicle manufacturer dropped 8.2% in the past week due to concerns over new US tariffs. On April 2, US President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on foreign auto products. Tata Motors is the most affected among Indian automakers as Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) sales in the US contribute over 20% of its revenue.

JLR, the luxury vehicle arm of Tata Motors, contributed most of the company's revenue in FY24. Its wholesale volume in the US increased from 26% in FY24 to 33% in 9MFY25. Analysts estimate a 5-10% drop in JLR’s volume due to US tariffs, which could reduce its earnings per share (EPS) by 15-20%.

JLR’s North America sales grew 48% YoY in Q3FY25. JLR’s CFO Richard Molyneux set a 10% EBIT margin target for Q4FY25 but cautioned that macroeconomic challenges could make it difficult. Recently, Tata Motors’ management reaffirmed its 10% EBIT margin target for Q4 and its plan to be net debt free by FY25.

Tata Motors’ India business reported an 8.4% YoY drop in commercial vehicle (CV) revenue due to weak demand, while passenger vehicle (PV) revenue fell 4.3% YoY in Q3FY25. Shailesh Chandra, MD of Tata Passenger Vehicles and Electric Mobility, said, “We saw 2% growth in 9MFY25 and expect the same for FY25. Demand has been unpredictable, rising in some months and falling in others due to macroeconomic factors.” He added that if economic conditions improve and the budget provides support, the industry could return to 6-7% growth in FY26. Tata Motors, like other auto majors, is facing competition from Chinese players in the international markets and from domestic competitors like M&M and Maruti in the Indian market, as new launches ramp up.

ICICI Securities has a ‘Buy’ rating for the stock with a target price of Rs 831, implying an upside of 35.4%. The brokerage expects Tata Motors' new PV launches and the revamp of its small commercial vehicle (SCV) business to drive growth. It projects a 7.2% revenue CAGR and 19.2% net profit CAGR over FY25-27.

3. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders:

This aerospace & defence company declined by over 7% today. On April 3rd the company’s promoter, the President of India, proposed to sell a total of around 1.9 crore equity shares (4.8% stake) in the firm via an offer for sale (OFS) issue at Rs 2,525 per share.

On April 2nd, the company began production of a Multi-Purpose Vessel (MPV) for M/s Navi Merchants Denmark. Mazagon will design, build and deliver six MPVs at a value of approximately $14 million (approx. Rs 119 crore).

The company’sQ3FY25 results saw net profit rise 28.8% YoY to Rs 807 crore, on the back of declines in raw material and project related costs. Its revenue increased by 30.4%but missed forecaster estimates by 2.2% due to a 9% YoY decline in its order book to Rs 34,800 crore. It appears on the screener for stocks lying in the ‘Sell’ zone.

Morgan Stanley highlighted that naval contracts for submarines and warships involve substantial, long-lead-time projects. The company's strong Q3 profit margins were driven by cost efficiencies on existing, older contracts. However, as new, specifically assigned orders come in, the company will not be able to maintain similar cost efficiency. Consequently, the brokerage believes that profit margins will return to normal levels within approximately 2.5 years, coinciding with the completion of the current order backlog.

Sanjeev Singhal, Chairman & MD of Mazagon Dock, commented on the order book, “ We are executing the existing orders. So the FY25 normalized margin for our industry should be around 12-15% level. Except for the exceptional items like reversal of Liquidated Damages (LDs) and depending upon the D-448 (the acceptance documents for the delivery of ‘Vaghsheer’ submarine) execution, so we don't see much change for the existing orders.”

Geojit BNP Paribas notes that the stock was trading at a 61% premium to its 5 year average last week. Considering this expensive valuation coupled with its likely moderation in earnings growth the brokerage has assigned a ‘Sell’ rating to the stock with a target price of Rs 2,318, based on an expected 24.5x FY27 adjusted EPS.

4. PNB Housing Finance:

Thishousing finance company surged 20.3% over the past month, driven by 202% YoY growth in its affordable-segment loan book to Rs 5,000 crore in FY25 and two upgrades from credit rating agencies.

On March 29,CARE Ratings upgraded the company’s long-term bank facilities to 'CARE AA+' with a 'Stable' outlook, citing stronger asset quality and an improved market position. In reaction, the stock rose 5% on April 1.

Meanwhile,ICRA also upgraded the PNB Housing Finance’s rating to '[ICRA]AA+' with a 'Stable' outlook due to improved asset quality, strong capital resilience, and the stock’s inclusion in the futures and options segment. This upgrade also drove the rise in share price.

InQ3FY25, the company reported a 42.8% YoY increase in net profit, reaching Rs 483.3 crore. A 31% rise in retail disbursements and a 17.5% increase in retail loan assets drove growth. The net NPA improved by 34 basis points YoY, reaching 0.8% in Q3FY25.

Girish Kousgi, MD & CEO,said, “We are confident of achieving our target of a Rs 1 lakh crore retail book by the end of FY27, with the affordable segment contributing 15%, or Rs. 15,000 crore; emerging markets contributing 25%, or Rs. 25,000 crore; and the remaining from the Prime business.”

Management aims to achieve an NIM above 4% and plans to expand into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, growing its network to 500 branches by FY27. It also projects its corporate loan book to reach Rs 7,000-8,000 crore by FY27 and expects the retail loan book to grow by 17-18% annually. Management plans to introduce Loan Against Property (LAP) as a separate segment from FY26.

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on PNB Housing with a target price of Rs 1,160. The brokerage expects retail loan CAGR of approximately 18% by FY27 and projects an improvement in NIM from FY26, driven by lower credit costs and recoveries from previously written-off loans.

5. Shaily Engineering Plastics:

Thisplastics and health products company has nosedived in share price over the past week, falling 20% after ending FY25 on a high note with a year gain of over 250%. The stock has been hit by US President Trump's tariff announcements on Wednesday.

Shaily's relatively new pharma product line has been key to its dramatic growth momentum in the past two years. While revenues for Shaily's consumer and industrial segmentsgrew by 20% and 13% respectively YoY, its pharma segment has been the big outperformer for 9MFY24, growing at 57%. The company appears in a screener of stocks with high TTM EPS growth.

Shaily has ridden the massive growth wave in GLP weight-loss drugs, as a manufacturer of medical pens. The company has built a moat manufacturing insulin pens and auto injector pens (the latter is used to deliver doses of weight loss drugs). These pens are highly regulated, with a long approval process in the US and Europe. Shaily has received the requisite approvals and faces limited competition here.

The management identified this space early on, and the company’s UK R&D center has helped Shaily rapidly ramp up its innovation efforts over the past two years. In February, Managing Director Amit Sanghvi talked about the company's plans to grow aggressively in pen manufacturing, with a focus on auto-injectors. "From having about 35 million capacity right now, we're looking at adding another 50 million to 80 million over a short period of time", he said.

The new tariff regime announced by Trump however, may ruin the party. For Shaily’s clients, 60-70% of end-customers are in the US. Trump's ‘Liberation Day’ announcements are therefore a complicating factor for its business outlook.

Monarch Capital is among the brokerages with an accumulate call on Shaily (with a target price of Rs. 1,600). The analysts note that Shaily aims to increase its healthcare segment revenue contribution to 25% by FY27E vs. 18.6% currently.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

03 Apr 2025

Chart of the Week: Drop in multibagger stocks from 157 in FY24 to 18 in FY25

By Omkar Chitnis

As uncertainty jumped across global markets in FY25, Indian stocks turned volatile. In the first half, the Nifty 50 surged 16.98%, and reached a record high of 26,277.3 on 27 September 2024, supported by market momentum and investor enthusiasm. The trend turned in the second half, however, and portfolios turned red as India’s growth disappointed. Foreign investors pulled their money out, as highly valued Indian stocks posted disappointing corporate earnings in Q2 and Q3.

Hard questions about valuation, which always get postponed when markets are on a bull run, cropped up again. This led to an 8.8% decline in the second half of FY25, limiting the index’s overall return to just 5.3% for the overall financial year.

Despite these challenges, the market showed resilience towards the end of FY25. In March 2025, the Nifty 50 rose 6.3%, with early signs of government spending and improving economic indicators. Foreign investors returned as US stocks lost momentum. But Abhishek Jain, Head of Research, Arihant Capital, cautioned, “Investors should moderate their return expectations, as the market is shifting towards a stock-specific phase rather than broad-based rallies.”

In FY25, finding multibagger stocks proved trickier than usual. In FY24, 215 stocks (with market cap of Rs 5,000 crore and above) gave multibagger returns, but in this fiscal year it dropped to just 38. Similarly, among Nifty 500 stocks, 157 gave multibagger returns in FY24, but only 18 managed to do so in FY25.

Jai Balaji Industries, GE Vernova, and Aurionpro Solutions saw the highest returns of 2,031%, 640%, and 650% in FY24 but could not maintain that performance in FY25. Among the top multibaggers in FY24 and FY25, BSE was the only stock to feature in both years, delivering returns of 516% and 122.5%, respectively.

PG Electroplast, Shakti Pumps, V2 Retail, and Shaily Engineering are among the top stocks that outperformed the market trend in FY25. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyze the top multibagger stocks in FY25 and why they beat the market index.

Government incentivesgive defense, energy, and electronics industries a boost

The government’s 'Make in India' push gave electronics, defense, and renewable energy industries momentum in FY25. Increased spending and initiatives like the PLI scheme for white goods and electronics also drove growth in these sectors.

PG Electroplast, the largest supplier of plastic-molded components for the consumer electronics industry, saw its share price rise by over 476% in FY25. Increased demand for electronics, production shifts from China, and PLI benefits for white goods contributed to this growth.

Shakti Pumps, a market leader in solar pumps within the industrial machinery industry, saw a 335% stock gain. The company capitalized on its 40% share in solar PV water pumping systems and government schemes, securing orders of Rs 2,070 crore, including from the Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan state governments under PM-KUSUM for FY25. A QIP and a bonus issue contributed to the stock price jump.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, a leading manufacturer of defense warships and submarines within the defense industry, saw its stock price increase by 179% in FY25. Government orders and increased defense investments expanded its order book to Rs 34,787 crore in Q3FY25, supported by major contracts, including those for ONGC and submarine projects.

Some cyclical stocks rise on better operational and financial performance

Cyclical stocks in FY25 fluctuated due to economic slowdowns, commodity price changes, and supply chain disruptions. Sectors such as power, engineering, automotive, metals, and gold saw higher volatility. But companies like Shaily Engineering and GMR Power outperformed the broader market.

Shaily Engineering, a high-precision engineered plastic products exporter, saw its shares rise by 252% in FY25. Growth was supported by a 94% increase in healthcare sales and a 56% YoY rise in EBITDA. The company expects medical devices to contribute 25% of its revenue within three years.

GMR Power, an electric utilities company, saw its shares rise 160% after securing a Rs 7,593 crore smart meter order, reducing debt, and improving thermal plant efficiency. Asset monetization strengthened liquidity and drove a strong financial turnaround, pushing Q3FY25 operating revenue up 46.1% YoY.

PC Jeweller, a Gems & Jewelry company, rose 150%, driven by a Rs 3,760 crore debt settlement and Rs 646 crore fundraise, strengthening its balance sheet. The company turned profitable in FY25, with net profit surging 174.7% YoY and revenue soaring 1471.8% in Q3FY25.

Expansion and investments lift industrial, healthcare, and consumer stocks

Consumer discretionary spending is increasing, particularly among high-income households, despite inflation and higher interest rates. In response, industries are expanding their production capabilities. This shift has resulted in improved financial performance, positively impacting investors in these companies.

JSW Holdings, the holding company of the JSW Group, saw its share gain 217%, rising to Rs 22,985 in FY25. This growth was driven by investments in EV ventures, a $1.5 billion battery plant, non-ferrous metals, steel, and green energy. Strong Q2 and Q3FY25 performance contributed to the share price growth.

Transformers & Rectifiers, a heavy electrical equipment company, saw its shares rise 184% in FY25. This growth was supported by the energy expansion and a 145% YoY rise in work orders to Rs 3,686 crore by Q3FY25.

Wockhardt, a pharmaceutical firm, soared 154% to an eight-year high after reporting positive clinical results for its cancer drug Zaynich in the US and planning an India launch at an 85-90% discount. The company also reduced pledged shares from 69% to 37% and returned to a Rs 14 crore profit in Q3FY25.

Higher customer engagement boosts retail and telecom stocks

Indian companies have been using discounts and promotions to expand their customer base. A growing focus on digital platforms and personalized services is boosting stock performance for some players in retail and telecom.

V2 Retail Ltd, specializing in fashion retail, saw its shares surge by 300% in FY25. This was backed by a 58% rise in operating revenue, Rs 590.9 crore in Q3FY25, and a 117.2% YoY profit rise to Rs 51 crore. Sales per square foot improved to Rs 1,219 from Rs 1,085, reflecting better space utilization.

Bharti Hexacom, a telecom service company, rose 159.3%. The stock’s initial rise was driven by 'Buy' ratings from brokerage firms. Growth was supported by a higher mobile ARPU, which increased to Rs 241 in Q3FY25 from Rs 200 due to tariff hikes. Net profit grew 23% to Rs 261 crore, while operating revenue rose 25%. Mobile service revenue increased to 25.5%, supported by network expansion.

The Baseline

02 Apr 2025

Former multibaggers: The top ten disappointments of FY25

By Swapnil Karkare

Ever jumped on a trend that didn’t last? It could be a fitness craze (the "five minute workout"), a fashion fad (low-rise jeans - thank god that's over), or even an app (is anyone still using Threads?).

Stocks work the same way. Some rally on hype, only to crash when reality kicks in. A winner today can easily become a loser tomorrow.

As we say goodbye to FY25, we look back at stocks that were multibaggers in FY24 but fell on their faces in FY25.

We used this screener, along with the screener rewind feature, to shortlist Nifty500 stocks that outperformed in FY24 but saw the highest declines (over 25%) in FY25. We focused on the top 10 by market capitalisation.

Here are the ten stocks that went from market darlings to big disappointments.

Let's take a closer look.

Tata Motors (Rose 147% in FY24, fell 32% in FY25)

For several quarters, Tata Motors rode a wave of positive media coverage, after launching its Nexon EV in 2020. In FY24 it achieved its highest-ever revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow. Operational efficiency was up, it was seeing strong demand for JLR and great India sales. It also reduced its net debt from Rs. 43,700 crore to Rs. 16,000 crore.

But the management predicted weakness in H1 FY25 due to dying pent-up demand, rising inventory, elections and the heatwave. Then came Emkay’s downgrade last year. Indian demand slowed, JLR revenue was flat in Europe and China as customers turned to Chinese cars.

Rising competition in India didn't help. Tata Motors saw a marginal revenue increase of just 1.6% YoY in 9MFY25. Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on automobiles has also put pressure on the stock.

CLSA is optimistic due to a potential JLR recovery, EV plans, attractive valuations, and a cyclical rebound in the CV segment. But competition looms from every side, and it's a rocky road.

Indian Overseas Bank (Rose by 184% in FY24, fell by 35% in FY25)

Between July and September 2023, Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) nearly doubled its stock price, marking its best quarter since 2001.

But in September 2024, Goldman Sachs downgraded bigwig PSU bank SBI, citing slower loan growth and rising credit costs, especially in MSME, agricultural, and unsecured portfolios. This sparked negative sentiment across PSU banks. And a broader market correction hit IOB hard.

Despite ongoing improvements in asset quality and margins, IOB’s high valuation, trading at a 2.7x price-to-book (PB) ratio, second only to HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank at 2.9x, has deterred investors.

New India Assurance (Rose by 139% in FY24, fell by 32% in FY25)

According to HDFC Securities, RBI’s decision to raise risk weights for unsecured lending in 2023, led to a shift in investor interest from banks to insurance companies. Cheaper PSU insurers, some trading below their issue price, became more attractive.

New India Assurance is a market leader in general insurance, with around 45% of premiums coming from the health & personal accident sub-segment.

However, several catastrophic claims in FY24, rising competition from new-age players, and a muted H1FY25 have put the brakes on the company’s growth. Weak Q1FY25 results led FIIs and mutual funds to dump 13 PSU stocks, including New India Assurance.

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals (Rose by 331% in FY24, fell by 38% in FY25)

Gross refining margins (GRMs) – the difference between the purchase and selling price of petroleum products - is a key growth driver for this oil & gas company. Higher margins mean better profitability for MRPL. Its turnaround between Q2FY23 and Q2FY24 saw MRPL's GRM jump from $-4.5 to $17.1 per barrel, as improved debt-to-equity ratio drove share price gains.

But narrowing discounts on Russian oil and falling petro-product prices as China demand weakened, have caused GRM estimates to fall. That led to a ‘Sell’ call from Motilal Oswal in January last year.

Then, in Q1FY25, MRPL's net profit declined by 93% YoY despite a 10% YoY increase in revenue. Since then, the stock has not recovered.

Ircon International (Rose by 314% in FY24, fell by 29% in FY25)

Government capex has turned railway stocks into multibaggers in recent years. Ircon’s stock had a good run for a few years thanks to strong fundamentals: Between FY18 and FY24, investors noticed as its revenue tripled from around Rs. 4,200 crore to over Rs. 12,800 crore.

The railway construction company was also diversifying into highway contracts and renewable energy, with highways accounting for 16% of operating income in FY24, up from 7% in FY22.

However, stock prices have declined recently due to surprisingly poor results. Domestic revenue fell 16% YoY while order books shrunk by 22% in Q4FY25 due to fewer orders, smaller project sizes, and intense competitive bidding.

According to Prashanth Tapse of Mehta Equities, weak earnings and steep valuations have triggered a sector-wide sell-off. Ircon director Ragini Advani said, “This is a cyclical area where we will need to survive. But growth may not be possible in this time.”

Cyient (Rose by 101% in FY24, fell by 37% in FY25)

Cyient’s share price rise in FY24 was driven by the AI boom, the resilience of Engineering Research and Development (ER&D) companies against macro challenges, a strong revival in the aerospace sector, and cheaper valuations relative to its peers.

Axis Securities recognised Cyient as a strong long-term ER&D player but downgraded it to ‘hold’ after Q1FY25 results, citing Digital, Engineering & Technology (DET) revenue decline, which makes up over two-thirds of its revenue. Motilal Oswal downgraded it to ‘Sell’ after Q3FY25 results, anticipating a weak Q4 and slower FY26 revenue growth.

Swan Energy (Rose by 220% in FY24, fell by 36% in FY25)

Swan Energy operates across sectors like Oil & Gas, Defense, Petrochemicals, Real Estate and Textiles. It acquired Veritas India, transforming it from a petrochemical trading company into a PVC and LPG processing company, and Reliance Naval & Engineering, boosting its defence and shipbuilding vertical.

Between FY22 and FY24, Swan's operating revenue surged 10x, turning losses of Rs. 158 crore into a Rs. 609 crore profit. Its stock price rose from Rs. 192 in April 2022 to Rs. 670 in March 2024, a 3.5x increase. In November 2023, Ventura predicted further growth due to Reliance Naval’s turnaround, Veritas’ transformation, and steady real estate rental income.

But that prediction didn't pan out. Results weakened over the next quarters. The company’s other income rose from Rs. 31 crore in Q2FY25 to Rs. 1,868 crore in Q3FY25, almost at the same level as its operating income due to the divestment of its LNG Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU). Its operating expenses have spiked almost 3X over the last two quarters. Rising operational expenses and inefficiencies have dragged down the stock in the last few months.

Jyothy Labs (Rose by 138% in FY24, fell by 25% in FY25)

This FMCG company has evolved from a single-brand, ‘Ujala’, to fabric care, dishwash, household insecticide, and personal care categories with brands like Henko, Pril and Exo. Its stock price zoomed 20% on 25th July 2023, the day it announced its Q1FY24 results. In that quarter, its sales grew by 15% YoY while its profits doubled.

The company was confident about its growth prospects in FY24 due to lower inflation and improving demand. These results especially surprised the market because overall FMCG sales for the quarter fell by 4-5% YoY, according to retail intelligence firm, Bizom.

Jyothy management changed its tune in the recent quarter, talking about subdued demand because of inflationary pressures and urban slowdown. It is also worried about margins, which fell from 19% in Q2FY25 to 16% in Q3FY25. For the past few quarters, its net profit growth has been slowing down. In the previous quarter, its operating profit contracted by 2% YoY and net profit by 4% YoY. Most segments have recorded declining operating margins.

Birlasoft (Rose by 195% in FY24, fell by 48% in FY25)

Leadership changes under Birlasoft CEO Angan Guha were aimed at bringing about stability and revenue growth. The company has long struggled with a low deal win-to-revenue conversion, and low annuity revenue.

But in August 2023, Nomura highlighted the company’s operational streamlining efforts and projected a 30% upside in stock price. The stock doubled in just six months.

In February 2024, however, the CEO expressed concerns about a weakening demand environment. Following this, the company reported a 2.7% QoQ revenue decline in constant currency terms in Q1FY25 as customers tightened their discretionary spending.

Its Q3FY25 results further disappointed investors with low growth and deal wins. “Revenue is likely to decline further in Q4 due to furlough extensions and client ramp-down. The weak exit rate, along with smaller sized deals, paints a dismal picture for FY26 as well," said Nuvama Institutional Equities.

Jammu & Kashmir Bank (Rose by 194% in FY24, fell by 31% in FY25)

The bank's share price witnessed a remarkable rise from around Rs. 36 in December 2021 to over Rs. 140 in March 2024, driven by a significant turnaround under the leadership of MD and CEO Baldev Prakash. Key factors included improvement in the state of affairs and economy of Jammu & Kashmir along with asset quality, with gross non-performing assets (GNPA) declining from 9.7% in FY21 to 4.1% in December 2024.

However, the stock has faced pressures due to muted growth in 9MFY25, impacted by elections and severe winter conditions. Advances growth has been sluggish during Q3FY25, with net advances growing only 7% YoY, and GNPA reaching 4.08% from 3.95% in Q2. Slower recoveries due to strain on borrowers' repayment capacities have further weighed on investor sentiment. Despite these challenges, the bank expects a substantial improvement in Q4.

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