The modern American, however worldly-wise, has not really experienced tariffs.
For that, you need to ask an Indian. Let's take televisions, for instance. Most American households had a television in their living rooms by the late 1950s. Americans were watching TV dramas like Mary Kay and Johnny in the 1950s, The Dick Van Dyke Show in the 1960s, The Brady Bunch in the 1970s.
But TVs reached most Indian homes only by the 1980s (a national telecast began in 1982), decades after the US. A big reason for this was Indian tariffs which kept foreign products and new technology out of Indian hands. If you wanted to time travel, you could visit India in the 1980s, a nation stuck in the past - people were driving Premier Padminis (a 1960s car), using Indian made refrigerators, and eating Mars bars and Toblerones only when someone visited from "foreign". Coca Cola aired the iconic "I'd like to buy the world a Coke" ad in 1971, but it got kicked out of India in 1977 and returned only in 1993 (to be fair, the domestic substitute Campa Cola was pretty decent).
So color me surprised that the United States now wants to block itself from the world with the highest tariff rates in a century. US President Trump, after implementing tariffs ranging from 104% on China to 10% on Australia, has promised Americans that they are somehow going to get a lot richer with tariffs.
Not many people are buying the "good for America" claim:
"A huge policy mistake and a tax on American consumers" - Ken Griffin, billionaire investor and Republican megadonor
"Unambiguously stupid" - Jay Hatfield, CEO, Infrastructure Capital Advisors
"You can’t go to the bathroom because who knows what’s going to happen” - Peter Tchir, Strategy Head, Academy Securities
Meanwhile, Apple stores across the US are packed with customers buying the phones before prices go up (estimates put the iPhone price in the US doubling with tariffs). Among the biggest hit stocks are the Magnificent-7 (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft and Tesla), which have lost $1.5 trillion in market value over the past few days.
The tariffs seem perfectly designed to crash American growth, as well as cause a recession in many parts of the global economy. But even in a bad scene, there are relative winners and losers.
In this week's Analyticks:
Tariff chaos: What does the impact on India look like?
Screener: Indian companies with high revenue exposure to the US market
Some countries are better off than others
In human history, trade has been a consistent winner. Global trade has averaged 4% in annual growth since the Mongol invasion in the 12th century. Trump is unlikely to be the one to break this pattern. Still, the damage to global supply chains, even if temporary, is significant.
India's stock market has see-sawed with the tariff announcements, but the trade data points to limited direct exposure. India's US exports account for 2.2% of its GDP. "India has relatively low dependence on the US for exports," Crisil analysts note. Vietnam in comparison, has 23% of its GDP coming from exports to the US, and 9% for Thailand.
A few Indian sectors take the lion's share in our US exports. Capital goods, textiles and pharmaceuticals have substantial shares.
Some sub-industries however, have a disproportionate share of export revenue coming from the US. 38% of India's dairy exports by value go the US, as do 28% of iron and steel products and 22% of agrochemical exports.
It's now a game of relative advantage
One advantage India may have in the new US tariff regime is in the difference in tariff rates. India's level of 26% is lower than what the US has imposed on big exporters like China, Vietnam and Bangladesh. This may drive players to shift operations - from Vietnam to India for Samsung and Nike, and from China to India for Apple.
Supply chains however, take a lot of time to move between countries. Apple still makes around 85% of its iPhones in China, even though it has been expanding production in India since 2017. Much of the equipment and machinery in Apple's Indian factories are still made in China.
But even as we assess tradeoffs and relative advantages, the fact remains that Trump, the Mad King with his chart of death, can change these numbers around on a whim and upend global markets week to week (he's already gleefully promising more pharma tariffs).
A trade deal here and there could bring tariffs down for some countries. But while markets hate uncertainty, Trump, a veteran of six bankruptcies, looks like someone who is unbothered by chaos.
Screener: Indian companies with high revenue exposure to the US market
IT stocks decline after Trump imposes tariffs on Indian imports
As FY26 kicks off, the Indian equity market is under pressure, witnessing a sharp sell-off. Amid escalating global trade tensions sparked by US tariffs, foreign investors have offloaded Rs 22,770 crore worth of Indian equities, leading to a 4.6% decline in the Nifty 50 index from April 1st. The screener highlights stocks that generate the most revenue from the US market.
The screener primarily consists of stocks from the IT consulting & software, construction & engineering, pharmaceuticals, and auto parts & equipment sectors. Notable stocks featured includeBharat Forge, Birlasoft, Mphasis, Persistent Systems, Hexaware Technologies, LTIMindtree, Bharat Forge, Zensar Technologies, and Welspun Living.
Bharat Forge features in the screener after falling 17.7% over the past week, touching a new 52-week low of Rs 919. The sharp decline comes as the US imposes a 25% tariff on automobiles and auto parts.
In Q3FY25, this industrial products manufacturer derived 74% of its revenue from the US market by supplying parts for Class 8 trucks and OEM parts to automotive companies. The 25% tariff on auto parts increases export costs, reduces demand, impacts revenue, and makes the company less competitive in the US.
In Q3FY25, revenue fell by 10%, and it reported a loss of Rs 19.5 crore due to lower sales of defense products on both a QoQ and YoY basis. On February 19, the company received a letter of intent (LOI) from AM General, USA, to supply advanced artillery cannons to the United States.
Birlasoft also features in the screener after falling 10.6% over the past week. This IT Consulting company derived 86% of its revenue from the US market in Q3FY25. The manufacturing sector and banking and financial services account for 64% of its revenue.
Trump has not imposed tariffs on the Indian IT sector. However, tariffs will likely increase costs for Indian tech’s American customers across sectors, leading them to reduce spending on IT services and postpone discretionary spending. This could extend deal cycles, delay projects, and weaken IT sector growth. A US recession could deepen these impacts further.
In Q3FY25, Birlasoft’s net profit fell 27.3% YoY, while revenue grew slightly by 0.9% YoY, impacted by seasonally weak demand and a drop in net new deals.
You can find more screeners here.
