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1. Polycab India:

Sharekhan reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this cables and wires (C&W) manufacturer with a target price of Rs 8,000, a 16.9% upside. In Q1FY26, the company posted a 26% YoY revenue growth, driven by strong performance in both the C&W and fast-moving electrical goods (FMEG) segments. Exports rose 24% and made up 5.2% of total revenue, with the management aiming to grow this to 10% by 2030. Net profit grew 49% YoY during the quarter. Both revenue and profit exceeded Forecaster estimates.

Analysts highlight that the management is optimistic about domestic demand, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and growth in the real estate sector. They expect real estate projects to play a key role in boosting wire sales, as it accounts for about 70% of demand in that segment.

Polycab’s order book stands at Rs 10,000 crore, with Rs 8,000 crore linked to the Bharat Net project (a government drive to expand broadband in rural areas). Analysts are optimistic as the company plans to bid for more such projects and has stated it faces no working capital concerns for executing them. During the quarter, Polycab spent Rs 410 crore on capex and plans to invest over Rs 6,000 crore in the next five years. It expects these investments to generate returns worth 4 to 5 times the amount spent.

2. Marico:

Emkay maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this personal products company with a target price of Rs 810, indicating a 14.6% upside. Analyst Nitin Gupta notes that the company’s short-term performance may be affected by rising copra prices in both India and Indonesia. Over the past six months, copra prices have gone up by about 35% in Indonesia and around 70% in India due to the early arrival of the monsoon.

Gupta expects current cost pressures to ease as market supplies improve in the coming months, which is in line with the company’s view. He believes margins will recover in H2, helped by stronger volumes and better cost control. This, in turn, is likely to support double-digit growth in earnings.

For its India business, analysts expect Marico to slightly reduce volumes as copra prices ease in the coming months. The company is expected to stay cautious, since dealing with high-cost inventory in the supply chain is difficult. While Marico usually keeps its prices steady during inflation, the recent sharp rise in copra prices has led to monthly price hikes—adding up to a total increase of about 55% in the last six months.

3. Astral:

Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this plastic pipes maker with a target price of Rs 1,680, a 14.1% upside. Analyst Eesha Shah notes that Astral is actively expanding both in India and overseas to tap into new growth opportunities. The company has opened marketing offices in Dubai to target the African and Middle Eastern markets with value-added products. It also plans to launch 12–14 new products from its overseas plants. For FY26, Astral has set a capex target of Rs 250–300 crore.

Astral’s pipes business saw only single-digit volume growth in FY25, mainly due to fluctuating polymer prices, which fell by 18% during the year, and lower government spending. Its adhesive segment reported a 12% EBITDA margin, down by 120 bps, because of volatility in raw material prices and high operating costs. Looking ahead, the company expects EBITDA margins to improve to around 17–18%.

Hiranand Savlani, Director & CFO, said, “We’re focused on adding more value-added products—these may not boost volumes much, but they deliver higher margins.”

Shah expects Astral’s revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% and 25.9%, respectively, over FY26–FY27.

4. Fine Organic Industries:

Anand Rathi initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this specialty chemical company, with a target price of Rs 6,400, a 18.7% upside. In FY25, revenue increased by 7.8%, supported by higher exports and strong demand for its chemicals.

Analyst Nitesh Dhoot notes that in Q3 FY25, the management signed an agreement with the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority (JNPA) to establish a 70 kilo tonnes per annum (ktpa) manufacturing facility in a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Maharashtra to increase exports. The company also plans to establish a unit in South Carolina, US.

Analysts write that the company's international expansion will strengthen its presence and create new growth opportunities once facilities become operational. They expect the company to generate Rs 900 crore in cash by FY27 and project Fine Organic’s revenue and net profit to grow by 11.6% and 15.6%, respectively, over FY26–28.

Mukesh Shah, Chairman, notes, “Domestic demand for chemicals is growing at 8–10% CAGR. We expect the Patalganga facility, with a capacity of 10 ktpa, to reach full utilisation by the first half of FY27. We also plan to increase the facility’s capacity over the next 6 to 8 months to meet the rising demand.”

5. ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this general insurance company with a target price of Rs 2,400, a 25.9% upside. In Q1FY26, the company's revenue rose 14.3% YoY to Rs 6,408 crore, driven by higher growth in auto and health segment premiums. Net profit grew 28.7% to Rs 747 crore, supported by strong investment income.

Management is prioritising profitability over volume in the auto, business insurance, and retail health insurance segments, and avoiding aggressive pricing. Analysts Prayesh Jain and Nitin Aggarwal note that the company is not expanding in the auto insurance segment due to intense competition. They expect margins to improve in third-party auto insurance if the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) approves the proposed rate hike.

Analysts note that ICICI Lombard is gaining traction in the retail health segment, supported by product innovation and expanding distribution. They expect the industry to gradually recover in FY26, supported by infrastructure spending and a rebound in auto sales, which could support growth. 

Management aims to reduce the retail health loss ratio (claims paid to premiums earned) to below 70% this fiscal year, compared to 74.3% in FY25, through improved pricing and product mix. Analysts believe this focus on retail health, along with recovery in the business insurance segment and improved industry pricing, will support growth. They expect 23% profit growth in FY26.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

On July 11, the Chinese company Moonshot AI launched a new, cutting-edge AI model, Kimi K2. The scientific journal Naturecalled it ‘another DeepSeek moment’. But it did not get the DeepSeek buzz, and barely anyone in the general public noticed. 

Many recent China news stories, in fact, haven’t caught much media attention. ByteDance for instance, the makers of TikTok, has quietly beaten Meta to become the world’s largest social media company by revenue in the first quarter of this year. China has also announced that it will spend $8.5 billion to boost new start-ups in AI.

Governments are watching -- and they are worried. At the G7 summit earlier this month, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbell said that they are looking at how to limit China's economic power. "There are concerns that the G-7 countries are losing influence," he said.

As China becomes increasingly dominant in tech innovation and trade, countries see their domestic economy and industry is under threat. They may have good reasons to worry. Many sci-fi films - from Bladerunner to Terminator - are based in the US. But the future may very well be Chinese.

China is getting closer to building a James Bond car

Remember the cars of the fictional British spy? James Bond has cars with missile launchers and ejector seats, that can even run underwater.

The new launches at the Shanghai Auto Show this year felt like something out of a Bond flick. For instance, the Nio ET9 can turn into a full-fledged 5D theatre, with shaking seats, moving suspension, and AC that syncs with movie action scenes. I would be very interested to find out what happens to that car while playing a Rohit Shetty film.

BYD is attracting travel vloggers with inbuilt drone cameras for its cars. Nio’s Onvo L60 has a fridge, while Ora has added thoughtful touches for women like menstrual pain relief and a built-in emergency alert.

As driving and car-charging tech became standard, automakers are in a race to be different by adding other software with more capabilities. The advantage now is all in the software, which is why such cars are called Software-Defined Vehicles (SDVs). 

Software-first approach gives Chinese cars the edge

Consider Xiaomi. It has launched an electric car in 2024 that runs on HyperOS — the same system used in its phones and gadgets. The car becomes just another machine in the company's Mi ecosystem, which also includes robot mops, smart watches and lamps.

Xiaomi cars pack premium features like a Tesla — LiDAR, 800V charging, air suspension — but keeps prices low by cutting margins. AI tech powers everything from self-driving to real-time defect detection. It’s a software-first car compared to Tesla, which is a car with a tech edge. 

While Tesla still leads the EV category in the Wards Intelligence rankings for both 2023 and 2024, the leaderboard is shifting fast. In 2023, Tesla was followed by Lucid (US), Rivian (US), Nio (China), and Polestar (Sweden).

But in 2024, Chinese players Nio, Xiaomi and Xpeng occupied second, third and fourth positions, respectively, pushing Rivian down to fifth. Xiaomi grabbed the third place in its first year making electric vehicles. This is a competitor to fear.

The Squid Game - survival of the fittest - in the auto sector

State support and smart engineers have played a big role in China's tech rise. But competition is the X factor here.

The pressure in China's market is brutal.  Out of nearly 500 new electric vehicle makers in 2018, over 90% have failed, and another 80% are expected to disappear in the next five years. This Darwinian race has left only the most innovative and financially smart companies still standing.

This approach has killed many entrepreneurial dreams in China, but it has helped the economy and people. China became a net exporter of cars in the last few years, from being a net importer in 2020. And average EV prices in China are down by 14% since 2023. 

One company, many different industries

Right now, BYD is busy building the world’s largest battery storage facility of 12.5GWh in Saudi Arabia. It is applying all its EV knowhow to other industries. It is using its signature blade battery across industries to make energy storage systems, and borrowing the lithium iron phosphate chemistry and ceramic insulation tech from its cars.

Many components used in EVs — like batteries, motors, power electronics, and software — are also used in drones, robots, and home appliances. This modular approach to manufacturing is known as the “Lego block” structure. The knowledge from making smartphones and cars is now being used in drones and AI-driven gadgets. 

China's electric tech stack is powering new products across the economy

Electric batteries, motors, power electronics and computing are the main drivers of innovation in China right now. It's being called China’s ‘electric tech stack’.

Two main aspects have helped them develop this stack. The first is domestic control over the full value chain. From mining lithium, cobalt, and rare earths to refining, battery production, and final assembly, Chinese firms can develop vertical integration faster, fix supply chain bottlenecks, reduce costs and launch products quickly.

Second is the location. In places like Shenzhen, suppliers, engineers, and factories operate next to each other. Engineers can walk from the design studio to the assembly line, solving problems quickly. Similarly, an EV maker in Shanghai can get all its components in just four hours from Changzhou, a place that handles 31 of the 32 steps in battery production, covering 97% of the value chain.

It's a bird...it's a car? China's push for a flying economy

If you can build a car, why not a flying one? Backed by a mature EV supply chain, Chinese companies like Ehang, XPeng, Autoflight, and Geely’s AeroFugia are building eVTOLs (electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles) using the same battery and technology. 

China is pushing for a low-altitude flying economy, with air taxis, drone deliveries, etc., with a roadmap that includes pilot licenses, aerial tolls, and eVTOL test zones.

At the centre of it all is DJI, which commands over 70% of the global drone market. With over 2.2 million civilian drones flying across China, their use in warfare has drawn scrutiny. Beijing is also ramping up drone production for defence, including a mosquito-sized surveillance drone that’s light, silent, and controlled via smartphone.

Are robots going mainstream?

Unitree's G1 robot, available for online purchase, has recently gone viral online and nicknamed 'Uncle Bot' for its natural movement and behavior. Many Chinese tech players including car makers are leaning into robotics.

Robotics and electric cars share deep technological overlap — both rely on sensors, batteries, motors, and advanced algorithms. Around 70% of components are interchangeable between these sectors. That’s why automakers like BYD, Xiaomi, SAIC, GAC, XPeng, and Huawei are entering robotics.

XPeng’s Iron Robot, for instance, uses the navigation systems of autonomous vehicles. GAC Group’s GoMate robot runs on EV battery packs. 

China has over 230,000 robotics firms, supported by a roadmap to mass-produce humanoid robots and build a $43 billion industry by 2035. XPeng’s chairman urged an EV-style policy support for robots, predicting similar explosive growth. 

AI investment is much lower in China compared to the US

AI is poised to be the main computing agent in all applications, products, and services. The government is driving AI investments through labs, data centres, and partnerships with firms like Alibaba and ByteDance. It is going to invest $56 billion out of a total $84–98 billion projected in 2025.

This is opposite of the US, where almost all investment is private sector-driven. For instance, AI capex by US tech Big 4 (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta) is estimated to be $302 billion in 2025, whereas for China’s Big 4 (Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, and Tencent) it is at $51 billion. Absolute spending in the US is almost six times higher than China. 

Will this tech stack help China dominate the world?

China’s manufacturing scale is reshaping global markets. It’s a leader in many areas like batteries, solar panels, rare earth production, drones and robotics. Its dominance gives it geopolitical leverage, as recently seen in the case of rare earths. 

China-made products are no longer inferior to their Western counterparts in terms of quality and functionality. They are also usually 20–40% cheaper. That forces countries to impose tariffs and curb trade. But that has not stopped innovation in China. 

For instance, Nvidia was asked not to export chips to China by the US government, creating a shortage of chips in China. Nio, which relied on Nvidia chips earlier, now uses its own ET9 chips. “It’s precisely the shortage of semiconductors that is leading China to develop their own faster,” says Frank Bournois, dean of the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.

Still, challenges remain. Global firms are diversifying supply chains, while China faces a slowing economy, youth unemployment, ageing demographics, and a post-Covid trust deficit — making global dominance harder. But the Chinese government is ambitious, and so far, its efforts have been paying off.

1. AWL Agri Business:

This FMCG company, formerly known as Adani Wilmar, jumped 6% on Thursday after the Adani Group announced the sale of a 20% stake in the company to Wilmar International. With this stake purchase, Singapore-based Wilmar becomes the majority shareholder in the company. Adani Group plans to exit entirely by selling its remaining 10% stake to “a set of pre-identified” investors.

In Q1 FY26, the company reported YoY revenue growth of 20%, led by strong pricing in the edible oils segment. However, it missed Forecaster estimates by 5%, mainly due to lower volumes and exit from the government rice export business.

Higher input costs, especially for palm oil, weighed on profitability. Net profit declined 24% YoY in Q1, and EBITDA margin dropped to 2.1%. Addressing this, MD & CEO Angshu Mallick said, “We expect some improvement in demand starting July, with the onset of the festive season and easing raw material cost pressures, especially in palm.”

The company operates across three key segments—Edible Oils, Industry Essentials, and Food & FMCG. Although the edible oil segment brings in 80% of revenue, it contributed only 50% to total profit, highlighting its low-margin nature. In contrast, the Industry Essentials segment, which includes castor oil and oleochemicals, delivered 28% of profits from just 13% of sales, aided by near-full capacity utilisation. The Food & FMCG segment also added 21% to profits, despite accounting for only 8% of sales in Q1.

AWL Agri reported fairly substantial retail expansion, directly reaching customers via 8.7 lakh outlets. It saw 26% YoY growth in rural areas and 11% in urban markets. Mallick expects the Food & FMCG segment to “continue to grow in double digits given the expansion in product pipeline and distribution.” He adds that the company aims to generate Rs 10,000 crore in revenue from this segment by FY27, with rural growth playing a key role. 

ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a higher target price of Rs 360. The brokerage is optimistic about the company’s transition from a commodity-driven business to a more stable and profitable FMCG model. However, it also flags volatility in raw material prices and execution risks in scaling the branded food portfolio as potential headwinds.

2. Allied Blenders & Distillers (ABD):

This breweries & distilleries company rose by 8.1% over the past week. This surge followed the Maharashtra government's July 15th announcement of plans to issue 328 new wine shop licenses, a move set to increase licensed liquor outlets by 19% (from 1,713). This policy shift, which aims to boost state revenue, is expected to generate an additional Rs 14,000 crore annually in excise revenue. Allied Blenders & Distillers (ABD), having opened its second Maharashtra distillery in January and as India's third-largest Indian made Foreign Liquor (IMFL) company, is set to significantly benefit.

Despite Maharashtra's growing population, the number of licensed liquor outlets has remained static since the 1970s, leading to just 1.5 shops per lakh people—far below the national average of six. However, implementing changes faces significant challenges due to cultural opposition and bar association protests over hiked excise duties, creating an intense situation for these policy reforms.

For FY25, the company reported a 6.2% increase in revenue, driven by growth in its Prestige & Above (luxury) portfolio. Trendlyne Forecaster projects a 12.3% revenue growth in FY26, attributing it to the company's focus on expanding reach to other countries and premiumization efforts. The stock has also appeared on a screener of stocks which have outperformed their industry over the past month.

Alok Gupta, the Managing Director of ABD, expressed confidence in the company's future, stating, "FY26 will be a year of momentum, backed by positive consumer sentiment, stable input costs, and a supportive policy landscape. Growth in the super premium to luxury segment will be driven by rising disposable incomes and demand for experience-based consumption.” The anticipated UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) may also reduce Scotch import duties.

According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, 5 analysts have a consensus recommendation of “Strong Buy”, with an average target price of Rs 516.6. ICICI Securities projects moderate volume growth of about 3% CAGR for the company's mass premium segment from FY26-27. Realization growth, however, is expected to come from price increases.

3. Computer Age Management Services (CAMS):

Thismutual fund services company rose 2.9% on July 15 after Motilal Oswalraised its target price to Rs 5,000 and reiterated its ‘buy’ rating. CAMS is a prominent tech services player in the finance space – it handles the back-end operations for mutual funds and also offers digital services in insurance, payments, and investor verification (KYC).

India’s mutual fund industry hasgrown rapidly, from around Rs 25 lakh crore in mid-2020 to over Rs 74 lakh crore by June 2025, and is projected to cross Rs 130 lakh crore by FY30. As the main registrar that handles about 68% of industry assets, CAMS is likely to benefit from this growth. Higher mutual fund volumes means more transactions, investor accounts, and servicing needs, which would support steady revenue growth across CAMS’ core and allied services.

InFY25, its revenue grew 25.3% to 1,475.1 crore, while its net profit surged 33% to 470.2 crore. Strong growthcame from its continued leadership in the mutual fund registrar and transfer agent (RTA) segment, a 29% rise in equity assets under management (AUM), and a 51% jump in SIP registrations. CAMS alsoadded three new AMC mandates and its first international MF client, CeyBank Asset Management Company, a Sri Lankan AMC. Non-MF businesses, which contributed 14% of revenue, grew nearly 25%, led by CAMS KRA and CAMSPay.

While the core RTA business accounts for approximately 87% of its revenue, CAMS continues todiversify into non-MF segments to mitigate concentration risk.

One of the keychallenges for CAMS is a pricing reset with a major mutual fund client. The company reduced its service fees earlier than planned, as older pricing models based on physical processes no longer made sense in the digital age. This changecaused a Rs 14 crore revenue hit in the Q4 and a 4% drop in the fees CAMS earns from servicing mutual funds.

Anuj Kumar, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer,said, “About half the pricing impact is already in the books (Q4). The remaining will flow through Q1 and Q2. After that, we expect to return to growth.”

Motilal Oswal remains positive on the stock, citing strong positioning and steady non-MF growth, but also flagged near-term margin pressure from the repricing impact. The brokerage expects non-MF revenue to grow 21% and MF revenue 9% annually over FY25-27.

4. Tata Technologies:

This IT software firm rose over 2% on July 15 as its Q1 FY26 revenue and net profit came in well above Forecaster estimates, despite a QoQ decline. Net profit dropped 9.8% and revenue declined 2.6%, mainly due to slower activity in core services as project ramp-ups were delayed and clients held back on spending. The product segment also saw weak growth because of the typical seasonal slowdown in the first quarter.

Tata Technologies’ core auto segment was affected by delays in project ramp-ups, especially from North American carmakers. These companies held back on R&D spending after the US announced higher tariffs on auto imports in April. They are now looking at shifting manufacturing operations to the US to avoid the tariffs. Since over 60% of Tata Tech’s revenue comes from the auto sector, this had a notable impact. However, the company saw signs of recovery in the second half of the quarter by closing six new deals, four worth over $10 million (~Rs 86 crore) each and two over $5 million.

Analysts believe the management's positive outlook comes from a stronger order book at the end of Q1 compared to last year. However, slowing global demand amid rising tariffs remains a concern for the auto segment's growth. Additional pressure from export restrictions of rare earth metal by China is weighing down growth.

Warren Harris, MD & CEO, said that tariff announcements in April created uncertainty, causing many clients to pause or delay their orders. He mentioned that while customer decisions were initially expected in April, they only came through by late June. This delay makes the company more confident about better performance in Q2 and the rest of the year. However, he added, “We don't anticipate a V-shaped recovery (quick and sharp rebound), in part because of uncertainty due to trade tensions.”

ICICI Securities has a ‘Sell’ rating on Tata Technologies with a price target of Rs 510. The brokerage expects revenue to decline by 1.5% in FY26, which is in contrast to the management’s aim of double-digit growth. It also pointed out that the stock’s high valuation amid slow recovery in the auto segment remains a key concern.

5. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals:

This pharmaceutical company rose 20% to a 52-week high of Rs 2,286.1 on July 11. The rally came after its subsidiary, Ichnos Glenmark Innovation (IGI), signed a licensing agreement with AbbVie for exclusive rights to commercialise its blood cancer drug ISB 2001 (myeloma), with a global market size of $27.5 billion in 2024.

The drug is currently in phase I trials. AbbVie will further develop, manufacture and market the drug worldwide. IGI will receive an upfront payment of $700 million (Rs 5,850 crore) from AbbVie following regulatory approvals. The company is also eligible to earn up to $1.2 billion (Rs 10,000 crore) from FY27 onwards as the drug reaches sales milestones. IGI will also receive double-digit royalties on sales generated by AbbVie.

Managing Director, Glenn Saldanha,said, “We plan to transition to an innovation-led business over the next five years in dermatology, respiratory, and oncology segments.” He emphasises that this deal with AbbVie supports the goal of increasing patented medicines revenue to 70% by 2030, up from 60%.

The company’s revenue rose 6.1% to Rs 13,435.4 crore in FY25, driven by growth in India and the European market, new product launches, and regulatory approvals. The net profit turned positive at Rs 1,047 crore, driven by lower raw material costs and a decline in tax expense, compared to a loss in the previous year.

Glenmark’s US revenue declined 5.4% in FY25 due to delays in regulatory approvals. Senior General Manager Utkarsh Gandhi expects an uptick in US sales, driven by the launch of respiratory and injectable products. The company expects revenue growth of up to 12% in FY26, supported by product rollouts in Russia, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Southeast Asia regions.

Post the deal, Motilal Oswalreiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on Glenmark with a target price of Rs 2,430. The brokerage expects that the partnership with AbbVie will drive earnings for Glenmark in domestic and international markets. Over the past two years, Glenmark has strengthened its portfolio in the higher-margin oncology portfolio, which is supporting sales growth. The brokerage projects net profit to grow at a CAGR of 20% over FY26-27.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

Despite Trump's near-daily threats -- to fire Powell, to increase tariffs -- the US markets have continued to rise in puzzling fashion, making new highs over the past quarter. There is one powerful force at play here: American firms are pouring billions into buying back their own shares, providing a critical support to share prices at a time of high volatility. 

Share buybacks have become one of Corporate America’s favourite cashback schemes to shareholders, a quick way of returning capital to them. Unlike dividends, buybacks offer flexibility, reduce outstanding shares to boost earnings per share, and allow management to signal confidence in the company’s valuation. They also carry tax advantages for many investors and help offset dilution from employee stock compensation.

While institutional investors pulled back during recent market swings, retail investors and companies kept buying stocks. Companies have sped up repurchase activity to a near-record pace, making 2025 the strongest year-to-date for corporate stock buybacks.

“We have raised the year-end S&P 500 target to 6,550,” says Binky Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist at Deutsche Bank. “We expect robust corporate demand to reduce stock supply, forecasting $1.1 trillion in buybacks this year, supported by resilient earnings.”

Beyond returning cash to shareholders, companies view buybacks as a practical way to navigate market swings and manage their share price. Michael, Chief Market Strategist at Jones Trading, said, “The benefit to having an approved buyback program in this environment is that should volatility emerge, the company opportunistically retires shares while supporting the share price.”

Buyback authorizations reach record high

Trump’s, er, unconventional trade moves have, in many cases, made planning for the future more difficult. Buybacks have become increasingly popular since Trump’s corporate tax cuts in 2017 left companies with more cash, boosting repurchases by S&P 500 companies to an annual record of $943 billion last year, according to S&P Global.

So far in FY25, US companies have announced over $800 billion in share buybacks, putting the market on track to easily cross the $1 trillion mark for the year.

Buyback announcements this year surge over $800 billion

This year’s surge stands out not just for its size but also for its breadth. Tech giants lead the way, with Apple authorizing $100 billion in repurchases and Alphabet approving $70 billion. Other companies joining the wave include Meta, Visa, PayPal, Nvidia, and Netflix.

Even financial institutions are not far behind, with banks announcing a total of $130 billion in buybacks. 

JP Morgan recently announced a share repurchase program worth $50 billion. “Our capital levels are strong,” said Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase. “Having passed the Fed’s stress test, we believe share repurchases are a responsible way to return excess capital while continuing to invest in the business.”

Several large banks, including Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, ramped up buybacks after clearing the Fed’s annual stress tests. This suggests that these banks are well-capitalized and can withstand severe economic downturns.

Buybacks: A corporate power play

The pace of executed share repurchases has picked up sharply. In Q1 FY25, S&P 500 companies executed $294 billion worth of buybacks, marking the highest quarterly total on record, surpassing even the Q1 2022 peak of $281 billion.

That’s a 21% jump compared to the previous quarter and 24% higher year on year.

However, in terms of dollars spent on buybacks, the activity is highly concentrated, with the top 20 companies collectively accounting for half of all the repurchases in Q1.

FY25 starts with record buybacks amid tariff uncertainty

“Corporations are hedging against volatility by locking in shareholder support, buybacks to give them control over valuation and earnings optics,” said Savita Subramanian, US equity strategist at Bank of America.

This timing also coincides with receding recession fears and a growing belief that the Fed is done hiking rates, and this has pushed firms with healthy balance sheets to act on previously authorized repurchase programs. For many, this was the perfect opportunity to buy shares at lower valuations as the stock market plunged in Q1 after President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

“When growth visibility gets murky, companies tend to favor levers that offer immediate impact, and buybacks do just that,” said Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Asset-light companies spending more on buybacks

Information technology and financials dominated buybacks executed in Q1 FY25, accounting for almost 40% of all S&P 500 repurchases. Tech companies bought back $80.2 billion in shares, while finance firms followed with $59 billion in repurchases.

In contrast, capital-heavy sectors like utilities spent far less. This shows that utilities, real estate and other capital-intensive sectors tend to spend less on buybacks in contrast to asset-light sectors such as tech and financials.

IT and Finance sector leads in buybacks for Q1 2025

“Tech companies, especially the cash-rich giants, continue to see buybacks as a way to send a confidence signal without committing to risky M&A or expansion,” said Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush Securities.

This concentration in buyback activity by high-margin, asset-light sectors reveals which parts of the market are best positioned to navigate the current economic crosswinds, taking a more cautious approach.

Buybacks vs. Capex

While tech firms remain leaders in buybacks, they face growing trade-offs. Companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta plan to invest over $300 billion in AI infrastructure and other capital expenditures in 2025, representing a 35% increase from 2024.

Amazon's board approved a $10 billion buyback program in 2022, but the company used only half of it by Q2 FY22 and hasn’t repurchased shares since. Meanwhile, Amazon’s capital spending surged from $63 billion to an estimated $104 billion.

This contrast highlights a critical point: while buybacks remain a key part of capital return strategies, major firms are increasingly prioritizing long-term investments, especially in areas like AI. That shift may gradually reshape how companies allocate excess cash, with a growing share moving from shareholder returns to strategic growth initiatives.

Still, buybacks aren’t without critics. Warren Buffett has warned that companies risk destroying value if they repurchase shares at a price above their intrinsic worth.

“It would be value-destroying if we overpaid while buying Berkshire,” Buffett famously wrote in a shareholder letter. The takeaway: Buybacks only make sense when companies purchase shares at a price below their intrinsic value. Else, companies caught up in the buyback fever can erode long-term shareholder wealth.

Capex, or capital expenditure, is typically a positive signal, indicating that the company is upbeat about its future and planning its next leg of growth. 

So capex growth forecasts by analysts are a useful proxy for industry optimism and future growth, and help justify current valuations. 

After several muted quarters in capex spending, a report by the Union Bank of India says that FY26 looks promising, with both fiscal consolidation and higher capex outlays. Capex in April-May FY26 rose 54% YoY to Rs 2.2 lakh crore (19.7% of the Rs 11.2 lakh crore annual target), indicating frontloaded government spending to boost demand.

Group CEO of Infomerics Valuation and Ratings, Shubham Jain, said, “India's economy is expected to grow at a rate of 6.3-6.8% in the next 12 to 18 months. This growth will be driven by strong domestic consumption and government-led infrastructure spending.”

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at the most dominant sectors, software & services, general industrials, utilities, and metals & mining, that turn up in a screener of stocks with high Forecaster capex growth estimates. 

Software & services sector ramps up AI, cloud investments

15 of the top 100 stocks with the highest capex forecasts are in the software & services sector. Research firm, Gartner estimates the industry to grow 11.1% to $161.5 billion in 2025. 

The sector has received strong deals in the cloud computing and artificial intelligence segments over the past two years. In 2024, Indian companies spent over $8.5 billion on public cloud services, with forecasts estimating it to reach $13 billion by 2026.

As of 2024, 65% of Indian IT services firms have integrated AI robotic process automation (RPA) into client offerings, with high demand from banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI), manufacturing, and retail clients. This has prompted the software & services companies to ramp up the development of AI and cloud services, leading to higher capex spends.

IT consulting & software firms such as MphasiS, Tata Elxsi, Zensar Technologies, and HCL Technologies are among the major contributors to this trend.

Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates MphasiS’ capex to surge 556.2% in FY26. The company’s deal pipeline consists of 65% deals in the AI segment in Q4FY25, up from 25% in Q4FY24. The management plans to invest in AI to enhance client experience while keeping the cost to serve low. This involves integrating AI directly into business operations, and continuing these investments regardless of the macro environment. 

Nitin Rakesh, Chief Executive Officer of MphasiS, said, “We will be focused on growing the deal pipeline and total contract value (TCV), with AI-led deals playing a bigger role. We plan to invest in our AI solutions while staying within our target margin band.”

Internet software company Just Dial has the highest capex growth estimate of 826.1% in the sector, while Tata Elxsi and Zensar Technologies are expected to see a capex growth of 356.9% and 296.6%, respectively. 

Software products developer Tata Technologies is estimated to increase its capex by 288.2%, while HCL Tech is expected to grow its capex by 199.8% in FY26. Both companies are also investing in AI and cloud computing services.

PLI push and rising utilisation drive industrial capex upswing

General industrials is seeing a sharp rise in capital investment. Backed by government initiatives like "Make in India" and PLI schemes, companies are actively setting up and expanding production facilities. A key trend driving this is improving capacity utilisation — existing plants are running closer to their full potential, which justifies further expansion.

The Economic Survey 2024-25 noted, "Manufacturing is resilient, with capacity utilisation above long-term averages, and private sector investment continues to grow steadily." Reflecting this momentum, 13 out of the top 100 stocks in our screener are from the general industrials sector.

HEG leads in capex growth estimates with a 418.2% rise expected in FY26, driven by its Rs 1,850 crore graphite anode plant. This electrodes manufacturer expects to maintain or slightly improve utilisation this year. Chairman and CEO Ravi Jhunjhunwala said, “We aim to keep utilisation at 80-85%, compared to an average of 50-60% of our international peers.”

Electrical equipment firm Hitachi Energy, preparing for India’s major grid expansion (from 400 GW to 900 GW), is putting a large part of its recent QIP funds toward factory upgrades, machinery, and infrastructure. Its FY26 capex is five times what it spent between FY20 and FY25.

Explosives company Solar Industries’ order book has jumped from Rs 2,600 crore in FY24 to Rs 13,000 crore in FY25. ICICI Securities expects the company to invest Rs 15,000 crore over the next five years as it scales up in defence orders. CEO Manish Nuwal noted, “Solar has signed a Rs 12,700 crore MoU with the Government of Maharashtra to invest in defence and aerospace,” adding that defence revenue will rise to "over 30% from the current 18%" driven by this capex.

Forecaster projects defence products maker Zen Technologies capex to grow by over 300% in FY26 to Rs 125 crore. However, the company missed the Forecaster estimates sharply for FY25 capex. CEO Ashok Atluri stated, “We’ve allocated Rs 70 crore for the R&D facility and another Rs 5 crore for equipment. We make budgets, but we spend when opportunities come up or when we see a gap in our products.”

Utilities sector capex surges on Government schemes

The utilities sector also features in the screener, with eight among the top 100 companies. The government has introduced several schemes to modernise the power distribution infrastructure and increase the share of renewable energy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the ‘Panchamrit’ goals at the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow. 

Under Panchamrit goals, the government aims to achieve a renewable energy capacity of 500 gigawatt (GW) by 2030, with 50% of the energy requirement being met by renewable energy. 

Power infrastructure players like JSW Energy, Adani Power, and Techno Electric & Engineering are capitalising on the government’s push to modernise the energy sector. Techno Electric has the highest Forecaster capex growth estimates of 790.7% among utilities stocks in FY26. The company’s Director & CEO, Ankit Saraiya, in an interview with CNBC, announced a $1 billion (~ Rs 8,598 crore) investment plan to set up a total data centre capacity of 250 megawatt (MW) across India by 2030.

The company plans a capex of Rs 5,000 crore in FY25-26, with half of the capex assigned for smart meters and the remaining shared between expansion of data centres and tariff based competitive bidding (TBCB) power transmission projects.

Green energy firm ACME Solar Holdings is riding the government capex waves in the renewables sector, with Forecaster estimates capex growth of 308.8% in FY26. The company plans to invest Rs 17,000 crore to expand its renewable energy capacity to 5 GW in FY26. It aims to add new capacities in the hybrid and firm & dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) segments. 

ACME Solar’s CEO, Nikhil Dhingra, said, “Our growth plan is not only focused on expanding solar capacity but also diversifying the project mix. Our under-construction projects include a mix of solar, wind, FDRE, and hybrid solutions. These projects have a short capex to revenue cycle, ensuring faster accretion of revenue and margin benefits.”

Forecaster projects JSW Energy’s capex to grow 227.8% in FY26. The company plans an investment of Rs 15,000-18,000 crore during the financial year to increase its renewable energy and energy storage capacity. 

Adani Power also shows up in the screener with Forecaster estimating a 192.1% increase in capex during FY26. This Adani Group company plans a capex of Rs 13,000 crore to increase its thermal power generation capacity to 30.7 GW by FY30. 

Metals & mining firms ramp up expansion, eye backward integration

Six out of the top 100 stocks belong to the metals & mining sector, which is currently witnessing strong capex activity as companies expand existing production and set up new integrated facilities. 

A key trend across the sector is the shift toward value-added products to boost profit margins. At the same time, companies are looking to cut operational costs through backward integration and better logistics, such as building slurry pipelines to reduce transportation expenses.

The plan to commission the cold-drawn pipe is driving Maharashtra Seamless’ capex growth estimate of over 1000%. The company, which manufactures steel products, is focusing its Rs 850 crore capex on this project, with machinery already ordered and expected to arrive later this year. Cold-drawn pipes are high-precision pipes used in sectors like oil & gas and automotive. The company expects this expansion to boost its annual turnover by Rs 1,900 crore.

Mining firm Lloyds Metals & Energy plans to invest around Rs 6,000-6,500 crore in FY26 and over Rs 7,000 crore in FY27. Managing Director Rajesh Gupta said, "The ongoing capex is heavily geared towards backward integration," referring to key projects such as a pipeline to move raw materials more efficiently, a facility to make sponge iron, and its own power plant—all of which are close to completion.

Non-ferrous metals processor Gravita has planned a Rs 1,500 crore capex through FY28, including Rs 1,000 crore for expanding current operations and Rs 500 crore for entering new areas such as lithium-ion battery recycling, paper, rubber, and steel.