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Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
24 Jan 2025
Market closes lower, Granules India's Q3 net profit falls 6.4% YoY to Rs 117.6 crore
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 23,092.20 (-113.2, -0.5%), BSE Sensex closed at 76,190.46 (-329.9, -0.4%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,318.90 (-219.2, -1.0%). Market breadth is sharply down. Of the 2,395 stocks traded today, 438 showed gains, and 1,924 showed losses.

Nifty 50 closed lower after switching between gains and losses throughout the day. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 0.2% and closed at 16.7 points. Cyient plunged to its 52-week low of Rs 1,328.9 per share as its net profit declined 31.7% QoQ to Rs 122.3 crore in Q3FY25.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed lower, following the benchmark index. S&P BSE SME IPO and BSE SmallCap Select Index were among the top index losers today. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Telecommunications Equipment emerged as the worst-performing sector of the day, with a fall of 4.6%.

Asian indices closed mixed. European indices are trading mixed. US index futures are trading flat, indicating a cautious start to the trading session as investors are assessing Trump's comments in an interview, where he expressed hope for a potential trade deal with China. Brent crude oil futures are trading higher.

  • Cyient sees a short buildup in its January 30 futures series, with open interest increasing by 104.7% and a put-call ratio of 1.

  • Max Estates is rising as it acquires a 10.3-acre land parcel in Sector 105 on the Noida-Greater Noida Expressway for Rs 711 crore. The project offers a development potential of 2.6 million sq ft, comprising 40% residential (group housing) and 60% commercial space. It has a gross development value (GDV) potential over Rs 3,000 crore.

  • Granules India falls sharply as its net profit declines 6.4% YoY to Rs 117.6 crore in Q3FY25 due to higher employee benefits and depreciation & amortisation expenses. Revenue falls 1.1% YoY to Rs 1,143.4 crore, caused by a reduction in the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) and pharmaceutical formulation intermediate (PFI) segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks with declining net cash flow.

  • Exicom Tele-Systems surges to its 5% upper circuit as it secures a Rs 1,412.5 crore advance purchase order from Rail Vikas Nigam (RVNL). The project includes supply of telecom equipment, power systems, and a 10-year maintenance contract for the BharatNet Phase III project in Uttar Pradesh.

  • Citi maintains a 'Buy' rating on UltraTech Cement with a target price of Rs 13,100. The brokerage estimates a 12% volume CAGR through FY25-27 and notes EBITDA/ton upside, primarily driven by cost improvements and continued profitability growth. It also highlights a 1.5% increase in cement prices in Central and West India.

  • Ujjivan Small Finance Bank is falling sharply as its net profit declines 63.8% YoY to Rs 108.6 crore in Q3FY25 due to higher interest, employee benefits expenses, and provisions. However, revenue grows 6.5% YoY to Rs 1,763.2 crore, helped by an improvement in the treasury, retail, and corporate banking segments. The bank's asset quality deteriorates as its gross and net NPAs grow by 50 bps YoY and 39 bps YoY, respectively.

  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories falls sharply as its Q3FY25 net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 3.2% despite growing 2.5% YoY to Rs 1,413.3 crore. Revenue increases 15.9% YoY to Rs 8,358 crore, driven by improvement in the global generics segment. The company appears in a screener of stocks near their 52-week low.

  • NBCC (India) secures work orders worth Rs 229.8 crore. This includes a Rs 148.4 crore order from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare for constructing residential units, lecture halls, hostels, and a rooftop solar system at AIIMS Bilaspur. Additionally, it receives an Rs 81.4 crore order from IIM Visakhapatnam for building a hostel, dining facility, and related infrastructure at its campus.

  • Axis Securities expects the Indian government to leverage India’s manufacturing strengths, leading to a PLI scheme for the chemical sector in the upcoming budget. The brokerage anticipates tax incentives for chemical hubs like Gujarat, benefiting Indian manufacturers. These efforts align with broader economic trends, including India’s demographic advantages, manufacturing quality, and the shift towards Euro+1 and China+1 strategies.

  • Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services signs an agreement with Siemens to provide its Zaggle Propel reward platform, which includes channel rewards and recognition to Siemens' employees for three years.

  • Indus Towers is rising as its Q3FY25 net profit surges 159.9% YoY to Rs 4,003.2 crore, owing to a Rs 3,024.1 crore reversal of allowances for doubtful receivables. Revenue grows 4.6% YoY to Rs 7,631.2 crore, supported by new towers and colocations. It features in a screener of affordable stocks with good financials and durability.

  • One97 Communications (Paytm) falls sharply as reports reveal the company is among eight payment gateways under Enforcement Directorate (ED) investigation in a Rs 2,200 crore cryptocurrency scam. The scam involves HPZ token, allegedly operated by Chinese nationals.

  • Erez Israeli, CEO of Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, says while the company faces competition in some products, it plans to launch 15-20 new products annually. He expresses satisfaction with a 25% margin, though it may vary depending the the product mix. He also mentions plan to launch the GLP-1 drug in Canada, India, and Brazil in 2026 and is seeking funding from multiple sources.

  • MphasiS' Q3FY25 net profit grows 1.1% QoQ to Rs 427.8 crore, helped by lower employee benefits and finance costs. Revenue rises 0.8% QoQ to Rs 3,624.1 crore, led by an improvement in the baking & financial services, technology media & telecom, and insurance segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past four quarters.

  • Ashish Kacholia cuts stake in E2E Networks to below 1% in Q3FY25. He held a 1.1% stake in the company in Q2FY25.

  • Kalpataru Projects International, along with its international subsidiaries, secures new orders worth Rs 2,038 crore. The orders include transmission and distribution (T&D) projects in India and international markets, and a building project in India.

  • The Appellate Tribunal for Electricity (APTEL) directs the Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company (MSEDCL) to pay NTPC Rs 2,477 crore for terminating agreement with its subsidiary, Ratnagiri Gas Power (RGPPL). The dispute dates back to 2014, when MSEDCL ended its agreement with RGPPL, which operates a 2 GW gas-fired plant in Maharashtra.

  • Bondada Engineering is rising as it signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) worth Rs 450 crore with the Assam Government to set up a 100 MW hybrid power plant in Assam.

  • Kotak Mahindra Bank acquires a Rs 3,300 crore personal loan portfolio from Standard Chartered Bank.

  • Indian Energy Exchange is rising as its net profit beats Forecaster estimates by 5.2% as it grows 16.9% YoY to Rs 107.3 crore in Q3FY25, driven by lower finance cost and employee benefit expenses. Revenue increases 14.5% YoY to Rs 132.1 crore during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks with zero promoter pledge.

  • India’s manufacturing PMI climbs to a six-month high of 58 in January 2025, up from 56.4 in December, driven by a recovery in new orders after a relatively weak Q3. In contrast, India’s Services PMI declines from 59.3 in December to 56.8 in January, reflecting slower growth in new domestic business within the services sector.

  • Mankind Pharma is falling as its net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 18.2% as it declines 16.2% YoY to Rs 380.2 crore in Q3FY25 due to higher cost of finance and employee benefit expenses. However, revenue rises 23.9% YoY to Rs 3,230 crore during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry in terms of share price change over the past quarter.

  • Sona BLW Precision Forgings' net profit grows 13.9% YoY to Rs 151.2 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 11.8% YoY to Rs 868 crore, driven by 48% YoY growth in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) segment, contributing 39% of the overall revenue during Q3. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving RoCE over the past two years.

  • Cyient plunges to its 52-week low of Rs 1,579.8 per share as its net profit declines 31.7% QoQ to Rs 122.3 crore in Q3FY25 due to higher employee benefits, raw materials, and depreciation & amortisation expenses. However, revenue grows 0.5% QoQ to Rs 1,909.8 crore, helped by an improvement in the digital, engineering & technology (DET) and design led manufacturing (DLM) segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks where promoters are decreasing their shareholding.

  • Hindustan Petroleum Corp rises sharply as its Q3FY25 net profit surges 3.6x YoY to Rs 2,543.7 crore, helped by lower inventory expenses. Revenue rises marginally by 0.4% YoY to Rs 1.2 lakh crore, driven by an improvement in the downstream petroleum segment. It appears in a screener of stocks with YoY growth in quarterly net profit and increasing profit margin.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 23,273.25 (67.9, 0.3%) , BSE Sensex was trading at 76,455.35 (-65.0, -0.1%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,604.10 (66.1, 0.3%)

  • Market breadth is overwhelmingly positive. Of the 1,881 stocks traded today, 1,334 were gainers and 488 were losers.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Torrent Power Ltd. (1,469.70, 3.2%), MphasiS Ltd. (3,009.30, 3.1%) and Au Small Finance Bank Ltd. (594.65, 2.1%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. (1,255.65, -6.5%), Oil India Ltd. (424.50, -5.9%) and UNO Minda Ltd. (913.60, -5.6%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

21 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Capri Global Capital Ltd. (200.60, 10.4%), KFIN Technologies Ltd. (1,164.90, 5.5%) and Five-Star Business Finance Ltd. (703.95, 4.3%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Cyient Ltd. (1,344.90, -23.4%), Techno Electric & Engineering Company Ltd. (1,110.05, -7.4%) and Syngene International Ltd. (796.10, -6.0%).

Aegis Logistics Ltd. (675.15, -4.5%) was trading at 12.1 times of weekly average. MphasiS Ltd. (3,009.30, 3.1%) and Atul Ltd. (6,547.10, -3.0%) were trading with volumes 11.0 and 9.6 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

27 stocks hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Apollo Tyres Ltd. (423.40, -3.5%) and Axis Bank Ltd. (948.50, -0.3%).

15 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including ICICI Securities Ltd. (807, 1.0%) and Indus Towers Ltd. (367.95, 0.4%). 20 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Syngene International Ltd. (796.10, -6.0%) and Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd. (804.25, -5.9%).

 
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The Baseline
23 Jan 2025
Chart of the Week: Indian Rupee reaches record low against the US Dollar
By Aditi Priya

The Indian Rupee (INR) has been under pressure over the last year, facing both global and domestic economic challenges. The rupee has been hit by  the US Fed’s policy moves,  rising crude oil prices and domestic inflation, depreciating sharply.

A selloff in Indian assets has led this month to the rupee’s biggest drop in two years. It fell 0.6% to a record low of 86.6 against the US dollar on January 13. Domestically, inflation has also put pressure on the rupee by reducing purchasing power.

With the new RBI Governor at the helm, reduced intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has added to the pressure. 

Reduced RBI intervention weakens INR

One of the primary reasons for the recent, sharp decline is the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy shift under its new governor. The RBI, under new governor Sanjay Malhotra, has opted to let the rupee move more freely, and has limited aggressive actions to stabilize the currency. This is a shift from the previous approach by ex–Governor Shaktikanta Das, who kept tight control over the rupee, only allowing gradual changes in its value.

Shaktikanta Das served as the RBI Governor from December 2018, managing crises like the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and instability in the non-banking financial sector. The RBI, under his governance, worked to  mitigate rupee volatility. To defend the rupee, the RBI intervened aggressively, utilizing over $60 billion of its foreign exchange reserves in November. The RBI also used dollar-rupee swaps to manage rupee liquidity without affecting the exchange rate.

However, experts including former RBI Deputy Governor Viral Acharya, have emphasized the importance of allowing some currency volatility to encourage private hedging, as the central bank cannot absorb all risks. 

The IMF also highlighted that excessive interventions have limited rupee movement, and reclassified India’s exchange rate regime as a ‘stabilized arrangement’ from ‘floating.’ Exporters were also impacted by the central bank’s policy of not allowing the rupee to find its natural level versus the dollar.

Indian Rupee hits record lows, could fall further

The INR moved from being one of Asia’s best-performing currencies in 2023 and 2024,  to a significant underperformer in the past quarter. Throughout 2024, the rupee depreciated by 2.8%, starting the year at Rs 83.2 and weakening to Rs 85.6 by December. It is down over 1% so far this year.

Over the last three years, the INR has gradually weakened against the dollar. In January 2022, the exchange rate stood at approximately Rs 74.5 per USD. By January 2025, the INR had depreciated by nearly 16.2% over this period. Several factors contributed to this decline, including the USD’s strength driven by global economic changes, India’s slowing economic growth, and a widening trade deficit. As a major crude oil importer, fluctuations in global oil prices have also hit India’s import costs and the rupee’s value.

Rupee’s depreciation comes with significant consequences

When the rupee depreciates, the cost of importing goods rises, leading to higher prices for imported products and raw materials. This increase in import costs can contribute to overall inflation, affecting consumers and businesses alike. 

Rising inflation due to a weaker rupee can influence RBI’s monetary policy decisions. The RBI might raise interest rates to control inflation, which makes borrowing costlier and could slow down economic growth. On the other hand, if inflation seems under control, the RBI might decide not to change rates. With the rupee's recent drop in value, there’s speculation that planned interest rate cuts might be postponed.

A weaker rupee can make Indian exports more competitive by reducing their prices in international markets. This price advantage can boost demand for Indian goods abroad, potentially increasing export volumes. However, the benefits may be limited if key export sectors rely heavily on imported raw materials, as the cost of these imports would also rise with a depreciating rupee, offsetting the advantages gained from lower export prices.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
23 Jan 2025
Market closes higher, Adani Energy's Q3 revenue grows 27.8% YoY to Rs 5,830.3 crore
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 23,205.35 (50, 0.2%) , BSE Sensex closed at 76,512.96 (108.0, 0.1%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,538.05 (141.5, 0.7%). Market breadth is in the green. Of the 2,388 stocks traded today, 1,265 were on the uptrend, and 1084 went down.

Indian indices closed higher, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index closing at 23,205.4 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 0.4% and closed at around 16.7 points. Hindustan Unilever closed in the red as its Q3FY25 revenue missed Forecaster estimates by 1.8% despite growing 1.7% YoY to Rs 16,050 crore. Net profit rose 18.9% YoY to Rs 2,984 crore.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green. Nifty India Digital and Nifty Consumer Durables were among the best performing indices of the day. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Fertilizers emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 2.5%.

European indices are trading mixed. Major Asian indices closed mixed. US index futures are trading higher, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Intuitive Surgical, GE Aerospace, Texas Instruments, and Evelance Health are set to report their earnings later today.

  • Kalyan Jewellers India sees a short buildup in its January 30 futures series, with open interest increasing by 22.5% and a put-call ratio of 0.6.

  • Adani Energy Solutions rises as its net profit surges 72.9% YoY to Rs 561.8 crore in Q3FY25, helped by a deferred tax credit of Rs 88.5 crore. Revenue rises 27.8% YoY to Rs 5,830.3 crore, owing to improvements in the transmission and distribution segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past four quarters.

  • Ultratech Cement rises sharply as its Q3FY25 net profit beats Forecaster estimates by 15.8% despite falling 17.3% YoY to Rs 1,469.5 crore due to higher raw materials, inventory, employee benefits, finance, depreciation & amortisation, and freight & forwarding expenses. It features in a screener of stocks near their 52-week highs with significant volumes.

  • Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency's board of directors approves raising funds worth up to Rs 5,000 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP) of equity shares.

  • Bharti Airtel and Jio align with the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India's (TRAI) directive. Airtel reduces its annual and quarterly voice plans by Rs 40-70, while Reliance Jio introduces new plans following an order for separate voice and SMS plans.

  • GAIL is rising as it signs a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Argentina's YPF and two Indian firms to explore LNG exports, lithium, and hydrocarbon opportunities. The collaboration aims to strengthen ties in energy and mining sectors for global markets.

  • Zydus Lifesciences is rising as the US FDA grants Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) to Usnoflast, an oral inhibitor for treating amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a fatal neurodegenerative disease.

  • Cigniti Technologies surges more than 10% as its Q3FY25 net profit grows 20.1% QoQ to Rs 63.6 crore, helped by lower employee benefits, finance, and depreciation & amortisation expenses. Revenue rises 1.7% QoQ to Rs 525.8 crore, driven by increased order intake from the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). It appears in a screener of stocks where promoter holding increased more than 2% QoQ.

  • Inder Jaisinghani, Chief Managing Director of Polycab India, notes that Q3 volume growth was affected by delayed private capex and a slowdown in public spending but remains optimistic about Q4 growth. He sets a revenue target of Rs 40,000 crore and aims to reach Rs 50,000 crore by 2030. Jaisinghani also states the company has no inorganic growth plans at present.

  • Paras Defence and Space Technologies surges as it signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Maharashtra government to develop an Optics Park in Navi Mumbai. The project is expected to cost Rs 12,000 crore over 10 years and aims to advance optical technologies, generating 2,000 jobs.

  • Zensar Technologies surges to its all-time high of Rs 869.7 per share as its Q3FY25 net profit grows 2.6% QoQ to Rs 159.8 crore owing to lower purchase of traded goods, sub-contracting, finance, and depreciation & amortisation expenses. Revenue rises 0.5% QoQ to Rs 1,356.3 crore, attributed to improvements in the digital & application services and cloud infrastructure & security segments. It features in a screener of stocks with consistent highest returns over the past five years.

  • Laxmi Organic Industries' net profit grows 7.8% YoY to Rs 29.3 crore in Q3FY25 due to lower cost of materials and employee benefit expenses. Revenue increases 13.3% YoY to Rs 786.3 crore during the quarter. The company features in a screener of stocks with improving cash flow from operations over the past two years.

  • India’s Steel Ministry advocates for a Rs 15,000 crore policy push for green steel in the upcoming budget. Reports suggest that the fund will include a PLI-type scheme to incentivise low-carbon steelmaking and introduce a mandatory procurement provision for this higher-cost metal, along with other key focus areas.

  • Vijay Kedia sells a 0.6% stake in Tejas Networks in Q3FY25. He now holds a 1.3% stake in the company.

  • RARE Enterprises sells a 0.8% stake in Nazara Technologies in Q3FY25. He now holds a 7.2% stake in the company.

  • Coforge surges more than 10% as its Q3FY25 net profit grows 6.6% QoQ to Rs 215.5 crore. Revenue rises 8.3% QoQ to Rs 3,377.8 crore, owing to improved order intake. It features in a screener of stocks where FIIs are increasing their shareholding.

  • Reports indicate that Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, in partnership with Germany's TKMS, progresses to the commercial negotiation stage for the Centre's Rs 70,000 crore P75(I) submarine project. The new submarines, equipped with air-independent propulsion systems, are expected to become operational within seven years of contract signing.

  • Stallion India Fluorochemicals' shares debut on the bourses at a 33.3% premium to the issue price of Rs 90. The Rs 199.4 crore IPO received bids for 188.4 times the total shares on offer.

  • Housing and Urban Development Corp signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Vadhvan Port Project (VPPL), a joint venture (JV) between JNPA (Government of India) and Maharashtra Maritime Board (MMB). As per the MoU, the company will finance up to Rs 25,000 crore and explore the development of new ports.

  • Laurus Labs' wholly-owned foreign subsidiary, Laurus Generics, receives a Form 483 with one observation from the US FDA following a post-marketing adverse drug experience (PADE) inspection. The subsidiary is located in Berkeley Heights, New Jersey, USA.

  • Jefferies is positive on the Indian auto sector, expecting the two-wheeler and tractor segments to grow at a 13-15% CAGR over 2025-27. The brokerage names Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Eicher Motors, and TVS Motor as its top picks, assigning 'Buy' ratings with target prices of Rs 4,075, Rs 6,600, and Rs 3,050, respectively. It believes these companies' growth outlook and improving franchises will support their premium valuations.

  • Persistent Systems is surging as its net profit grows 14.8% QoQ to Rs 373 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue rises 5.5% QoQ to Rs 3,104.9 crore, led by improvements in the banking, financial services & insurance (BFSI), healthcare & life sciences, and software, hi-tech, & emerging industries segments. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past eight quarters.

  • Hindustan Unilever is falling sharply as its Q3FY25 revenue misses Forecaster estimates by 1.8% despite growing 1.7% YoY to Rs 16,050 crore, helped by improvements in the home care, beauty & wellbeing, and foods segments. Net profit rises 18.9% YoY to Rs 2,984 crore, driven by lower raw material costs. The company's board approves acquiring a 90.5% stake in Uprising Science for a cash consideration of Rs 2,670 crore.

  • Bharat Petroleum Corp is falling as its Q3FY25 net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 27.5% despite growing 19.6% YoY to Rs 3,805.9 crore due to lower cost of materials. However, revenue declines 2% YoY to Rs 1,13,165.9 crore during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks underperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

  • Pidilite Industries is rising as its net profit grows 8.2% YoY to Rs 552.4 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 7.6% YoY to Rs 3,368.9 crore, driven by higher sales from the consumer & bazaar, and business-to-business segments during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding over the past two months.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 23,103.70 (-51.7, -0.2%) , BSE Sensex was trading at 76,414.52 (9.5, 0.0%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,361.55 (-35, -0.2%)

  • Market breadth is in the red. Of the 1,888 stocks traded today, 821 were in the positive territory and 1,011 were negative.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Coforge Ltd. (9,196.45, 11.8%), Persistent Systems Ltd. (6,287.70, 10.6%) and UltraTech Cement Ltd. (11,420.90, 6.8%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Au Small Finance Bank Ltd. (582.40, -3.6%), Jio Financial Services Ltd. (255.85, -2.6%) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (271.25, -2.3%).

Volume Rockets

27 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Go Digit General Insurance Ltd. (327.35, 14.3%), Coforge Ltd. (9,196.45, 11.8%) and Zensar Technologies Ltd. (836.90, 11.6%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (978.10, -4.0%), EIH Ltd. (385.20, -3.2%) and Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd. (221.48, -2.6%).

JK Lakshmi Cement Ltd. (821.45, 5.1%) was trading at 13.2 times of weekly average. Pidilite Industries Ltd. (2,909.65, 5.6%) and Honasa Consumer Ltd. (248, 0.2%) were trading with volumes 9.2 and 5.6 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

2 stocks made 52 week highs, while 15 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Wipro Ltd. (317.70, 2.8%) and Zensar Technologies Ltd. (836.90, 11.6%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Axis Bank Ltd. (951.05, -0.9%) and Grindwell Norton Ltd. (1,826.95, 1.5%).

17 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including KEI Industries Ltd. (4,480.60, 8.6%) and UltraTech Cement Ltd. (11,420.90, 6.8%). 19 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd. (855.05, -4.6%) and Sammaan Capital Ltd. (157.19, -2.8%).

 
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The Baseline
22 Jan 2025
The rise of the rural consumer is changing FMCG | Screener: FMCG stocks outperforming their industry
By Swapnil Karkare

One evening, instead of absent-mindedly watching something with an audience rating of 4/10 on Netflix, I scrolled through a list of 2024’s top-grossing Indian movies. One thing stood out: three of the top five films were set in rural India. At the top of the list was Pushpa 2, based in a remote Andhra village. In third place was Stree 2, a horror-comedy that takes place in a small Madhya Pradesh town. Devara, the fifth in the list, is again based in an Andhra Pradesh village. 

 Popular culture is mirroring a shift in India’s consumption story. The latest Grameen Bharat Mahotsav 2025 in New Delhi, held earlier this month, couldn't have been better timed. Discussions focused on rural innovation and sustainable farming. Villages and small cities, often seen as passive participants, are playing a larger part in India's growth narrative, and brands are taking note.

In this week's Analyticks:

  • Rural revival: A recovery in rural India helps FMCG players, amid an urban slowdown
  • Screener: FMCG stocks outperforming their industry

A rural resurgence amid the urban gloom

The quarterly earnings season isn't looking great so far, especially for the consumer sector. In Mumbai and Bangalore's high-street shops, you see more salespeople than customers. FMCG companies admit that the reluctant Indian consumer is hurting their balance sheets.

Dabur expects its revenue to grow in the low single digits. Analysts estimate single-digit revenue growth for HUL, Britannia, and Nestle. Tata Consumer is expected to deliver healthy revenue growth, but faces margin pressures. 

Mirae Asset Sharekhan projects a weaker overall consumer goods sector for Q3FY25 due to sluggish urban demand, compounded by inflation and fewer job opportunities. This has forced FMCG companies to focus on rural areas, which have been outgrowing cities for the last three quarters. 

Rural consumers increase their spends

Most brands rely on small sachet sizes to penetrate the very price-elastic rural markets. But recently, HULobserved that rural consumers who previously purchased Re. 1 sachets of Clinic Plus shampoo for years, have upgraded to Dove’s Rs. 2 sachets. They are also buying Rs. 10 packs of noodles, chocolates, soaps, and detergents instead of the smaller five rupee ones, according to Kantar’s report. Brand and product preferences are changing, indicating lifestyle upgrades.

Recent income support schemes rolled out by several Indian states like the Ladki Bahin Yojana have also contributed to a decline in consumption inequality.

The change is beyond FMCG. Government data shows that spending patterns in rural areas are diversifying. There’s a growing interest in convenience and health products, with an increase in the share of processed food (from 9.6% to 9.8%), vegetables (from 5.4% to 6%), and fruits (from 3.7% to 3.9%) in consumption expenditure in 2023-24 compared to 2022-23.


The attitudes of rural consumers are also changing. Lakshmi Venu, director of TAFE, a farm equipment company, adds, "The knowledge asymmetry that used to exist between urban and rural is virtually gone. With cheap accessible data, today the rural customer has access to all the same information as the urban resident."

Rising income in non-metros drive luxury goods purchases

Like villages, consumers in tier II and III cities crave upgrades too. Pradeep Bakshi, Voltas’ Managing Director, notes that as per capita income increases in smaller towns, consumers are spending more on luxuries and durable goods.

Non-metro cities like Ludhiana, Jaipur, Lucknow and Coimbatore are witnessing increased spending power. Ethos, a luxury watch retailer, has launched boutiques in Kochi, Dehradun and Mangaluru. Tata Cliq Luxury reported a growing demand for brands like Louis Vuitton, Gucci, and Rolex in cities like Nagpur, Ajmer, and Aligarh. Non-metros now account for more than half of Tata Cliq Luxury's sales.

How are brands responding?

Brands are reaching non-metro consumers in unconventional ways. One example is the decision to launch Pushpa 2’s Hindi trailer in Patna instead of Mumbai.

FMCG companies are pushing their network into more villages. Daburhas reached 122,000 villages out of the over 6 lakh villages in India, and ITC has boosted its rural stockist network by 1.3 times in two years. Mahindra Logistics’ innovative ‘Direct to Kirana’ model has helped a leading multinational expand its market reach by 30% in non-metro cities. Even Durex is getting in on the action, cleverly targeting rural markets with premium products in smaller, pocket-friendly packs.

Smaller cities are making their online presence felt, outperforming metros in data consumption. Users in these cities are consuming 38–42 GB per capita per month, compared to Delhi and Mumbai’s 30–34 GB, and streaming platforms and the digital ecosystem are benefiting. Netflix and Amazon are investing in content delivery networks in cities such as Pune, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, and Jaipur.

Local and blue-collar influencers such as Siraj Bachchan, a mimicry artist, Ankit Baiyanpuria, a Sonipat-based fitness creator, Rajesh Rawani, a truck driver, Santosh Jadhav from Sangli, and Pawan Bisnoi, an electrician-cum-mason from Fatehabad, are becoming prominent. They drive engagement at a fraction of the cost of traditional campaigns. Brands like Swiggy, Asian Paints, True Elements, and Jindal Stainless are collaborating with them, to connect with audiences in ways that big celebrities often can’t.

A structural improvement in rural consumption?

The government data shows that monthly spending (including social security benefits) in villages has surged 10% YoY, as against 8.5% YoY in cities, during the August 2023-July 2024 period. The gap between rural and urban spending has narrowed. In 2011-12, urban spending was 84% higher than rural. It’s down to 67% in 2023-24. This signals a more balanced economic landscape. Rural consumption growth has recently outpaced urban across most income categories. 

It's time to dig deeper

Rima Bijapurkar, in her book "Liliput Land," challenges the traditional classification of consumers as just urban and rural. She points out that nearly 50% of India’s wealthiest households, reside in rural areas, and run agricultural businesses — busting the myth that wealth is concentrated in metros.

To truly understand the Indian consumer, Bijapurkar argues for more granular data: insights into income patterns, category-wise GST data, and comprehensive rural surveys. Without this, brands risk oversimplifying a complex and evolving market.

Of course, one cannot ignore the looming slowdown in the cities. As the government prepares the budget, all eyes are on how it balances the needs of urban and rural residents, and introduces much needed reforms in ease of doing business and in taxation, that have burdened urban India.

Screener: FMCG stocks outperforming their industries in price change and revenue YoY growthr

Packaged goods & personal products stocks have high quarter change and revenue growth

With the Indian markets undergoing a correction, we examine the performance of FMCG stocks over the past quarter. FMCG stocks are classified as defensive stocks, which provide relatively consistent returns and stable earnings regardless of the overall state of the stock market. This screener shows FMCG stocks outperforming their industries in the past quarter and quarterly revenue growth.

Major stocks appearing in the screener are CIAN Agro Industries & Infrastructure, Polo Queen Industrial & Fintech, Galaxy Cloud Kitchens, Radix Industries (India), Hipolin, Gillette India, Future Consumer, and Gokul Agro Resources. 

CIAN Agro Industries & Infrastructure features in the screener with the highest YoY revenue growth of 452.5% to Rs 126.4 crore in Q2FY25, outperforming the edible oils industry’s average revenue growth by 439 percentage points. This helped the stock price surge by 126.2% over the past three months, outperforming the industry by 127.1 percentage points. The company’s revenue surged on the back of an increase in the agro and infrastructure divisions. 

Gillette India is the only large-cap stock in the screener after outperforming the personal products industry price change by 20 percentage points after growing by 8.5% over the past quarter. The company’s revenue grew by 17.1% YoY to Rs 788.9 crore in Q2FY25, beating its industry average revenue growth by 14.8 percentage points. The company’s revenue increased, driven by an improvement in the grooming products segment. 

You can find some popular screeners here.

Signing off this week,

The Trendlyne Team

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
22 Jan 2025
Market closes higher, HDFC Bank's net profit grows 2.2% YoY to Rs 16,735.5 crore in Q3
By Trendlyne Analysis

Markets closed higher. Nifty 50 closed at 23,155.35 (130.7, 0.6%) , BSE Sensex closed at 76,404.99 (566.6, 0.8%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,396.55 (-36.7, -0.2%). Market breadth is moving down. Of the 2,394 stocks traded today, 522 showed gains, and 1,846 showed losses.

Indian indices closed higher, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index closing at 23,155.4 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 1.7% and closed at around 16.8 points. HDFC Bank's net profit grew 2.2% YoY to Rs 16,735.5 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increased 7% YoY to Rs 87,460.4 crore during the quarter. 

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the red. Nifty Services Sector and Nifty Pharma closed higher. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Software & Services emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 1.4%.

European indices are trading in the green, except for Spain’s IBEX 35. Major Asian indices closed mixed. US index futures are trading higher, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Alphabet reportedly invests an additional $1 billion in AI start-up Anthropic, building on its earlier $2 billion commitment to strengthen its position in the AI race. GE Aerospace, Texas Instruments, and Union Pacific are set to report their earnings later today.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that Sanofi India is in the oversold zone.

  • HDFC Bank rises as its net profit grows 2.2% YoY to Rs 16,735.5 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 7% YoY to Rs 87,460.4 crore, owing to improvements in the treasury, retail and wholesale banking segments. However, the bank's asset quality declines as its gross and net NPA grow by 16 bps and 15 bps YoY, respectively. It appears in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past four quarters.

  • Cyient DLM plunges to its 52-week low of Rs 505.7 per share as its net profit declines 40.4% YoY to Rs 11 crore in Q3FY25 due to higher raw materials, inventory, employee benefits, finance, and depreciation & amortisation expenses. However, revenue grows 36.5% YoY to Rs 451.1 crore, helped by improvements in the defence and aerospace segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with declining cash flows.

  • LTIMindtree is rising as it extends its partnership with the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), a non-profit association focused on improving medical education and health care. Under this partnership, the company will help AAMC accelerate continuous improvement initiatives, improve decision-making, and enhance productivity.

  • Bandhan Bank receives a claim payout of Rs 289.6 crore under the Credit Guarantee Fund for Micro Units (CGFMU) scheme. The amount, calculated at Rs 314.7 crore as of March 31, 2024, is adjusted by Rs 25.1 crore recovered from eligible accounts between April 1 and October 31, 2024.

  • Polycab India falls sharply as its revenue misses Forecaster estimates by 2.8% despite rising 20.4% YoY to Rs 5,226.1 crore in Q3FY25, driven by strong performance in the wires & cables and FMEG segments. Net profit grows by 10.8% YoY to Rs 457.6 crore, helped by inventory destocking. It shows up in a screener of stocks with an increasing trend in non-core income.

  • Neuland Laboratories rises sharply as its board of directors approves a capex of Rs 342 crore for the capacity expansion at Units 1 and 3 of its Telangana manufacturing facility. The company plans to increase the peptide synthesizer capacity by 6.4-kilo litre (KL) from 6.9 KL at Unit 1 and expand capacity by 52 KL to 373 KL at Unit 3.

  • ITI secures a Rs 167 crore contract from the Rural Development Department, Government of Maharashtra. The contract involves setting up, operationalizing, rolling out, and monitoring the implementation of Aaple Sarkar Seva Kendra (ASSK) in the Gram Panchayats of the Chatrapathi Sambhaji Nagar, Nagpur, and Amaravati regions of Maharashtra.

  • Jefferies maintains a 'Buy' rating on Ambuja Cements & ACC with target prices of Rs 725 and Rs 2,655, respectively. The brokerage cites the cement industry's recovery in volume and pricing in CY25. It names Ambuja Cements among its top picks and expects the recent mergers and acquisitions (M&As) to help drive volume growth.

  • Tanla Platforms falls sharply as its Q3FY25 net profit drops by 15.4% YoY to Rs 118.5 crore due to higher cost of services and employee benefits expenses. Revenue decreases marginally by 0.2% YoY to Rs 1,000.4 crore during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks where mutual funds decreased their holding in the past quarter.

  • Piramal Pharma is falling as it issues a corporate guarantee for a $216 million (~ Rs 1,869.1 crore) loan for its European subsidiary, Piramal Dutch Holdings, from a group of banks, including The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corp, BNP Paribas, and Axis Bank.

  • Akums Drugs & Pharmaceuticals is falling as the Income Tax Department conducts a search at the company's and its subsidiaries' offices and manufacturing units.

  • Life Insurance Corporation of India increases its stake in Container Corp of India (CONCOR) to 9.8% (approx 6 crore shares) from 7.8% in September 2024, by buying 41 lakh shares this month. The insurer bought the stake through open market purchases, indicating confidence in the company's outlook.

  • Dalmia Bharat's net profit plunges 76.8% YoY to Rs 61 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue declines 12.2% YoY to Rs 3,218 crore due to lower sales volumes during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks with PE higher than industry average PE.

  • India Cements' falls sharply as its revenue falls 16.5% YoY to Rs 903.2 crore in Q3FY25, missing the Forecaster estimates by 4.5%. Net loss expands to Rs 428.8 crore compared to Rs 16.5 crore in Q3FY24 due to higher raw material, power & fuel and finance costs. It shows up in a screener of stocks underperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

  • Rossari Biotech is falling as its net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 6.5% after declining 7.8% YoY to Rs 31.7 crore in Q3FY25 due to rising input costs and lower operational efficiency. However, revenue increases 10.6% YoY to Rs 512.7 crore during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

  • Kotak Institutional Equities believes the Indian economy could experience moderate collateral damage if a prolonged "conflict" arises between foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs). The brokerage anticipates large FPI outflows, with DIIs buying at current high valuations, likely leading to issues with the balance of payments (BoP), forex reserves, and liquidity.

  • JK Tyre & Industries secures a $100 million (~Rs 865.7 crore) sustainability-linked loan from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), allocating $30 million to itself and $70 million to its subsidiary, Cavendish Industries. The funds will boost passenger car radial (PCR) tyre production at its Madhya Pradesh plant and bus radial (TBR) tyres in Uttarakhand.

  • KEI Industries is falling as its Q3FY25 net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 6% despite growing 9.4% YoY to Rs 164.8 crore, helped by inventory destocking and lower sub-contracting expenses. Revenue rises 19.6% YoY to Rs 2,480.9 crore, driven by improvements in the cables & wires and stainless steel wire segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with growing costs YoY for long-term projects.

  • Home First Finance Company India's board of directors schedules a meeting for January 28 to consider a proposal to raise funds via a qualified institutional placement (QIP) of equity shares. The board will also announce the company's Q3FY25 earnings during the meeting.

  • DAM Capital initiates a 'Buy' rating on Karur Vysya Bank with a target price of Rs 274. The brokerage highlights the bank's structural transformation, with improvements in return on assets (RoA) and return on equity (RoE) to 1.7% and 17%, respectively. It believes the bank has the potential to be a steady compounder and its strong business can thrive in the mid-sized banking sector.

  • IndiaMART InterMESH plunges to its 52-week low of Rs 2,065.4 per share as its Q3FY25 net profit declines 10.4% QoQ to Rs 121 crore, caused by higher employee benefits expenses. Revenue falls 3.2% QoQ to Rs 399.2 crore during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks where promoters are decreasing their shareholding.

  • PNB Housing Finance's net profit grows 42.8% YoY to Rs 483.3 crore in Q3FY25, driven by better management of financial losses and write-offs. Revenue increases 10.7% YoY to Rs 1,941.8 crore during the quarter. It features in a screener of stocks with zero promoter pledges.

  • Tata Technologies' net profit grows 7.1% QoQ to Rs 168.6 crore in Q3FY25, helped by lower outsourcing & consultancy expenses. Revenue rises 2.4% QoQ to Rs 1,345 crore, driven by improvements in the services and technology solutions segments. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing return on equity (RoE) over the past two years.

  • ICICI Prudential Life Insurance's net profit grows 43.2% YoY to Rs 325.7 crore in Q3FY25, helped by lower advertisement and publicity expenses. Revenue decreases by 82.8% YoY to Rs 4,535.6 crore due to a loss from investment income during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks with increasing profits every quarter for the past three quarters.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 23,099.85 (75.2, 0.3%) , BSE Sensex was trading at 76,114.42 (276.1, 0.4%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,416.70 (-16.5, -0.1%)

  • Market breadth is sharply down. Of the 1,902 stocks traded today, 528 were gainers and 1,324 were losers.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Bajaj Holdings & Investment Ltd. (11,286.40, 4.5%), Wipro Ltd. (309.10, 3.6%) and Infosys Ltd. (1,856.45, 3.1%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Macrotech Developers Ltd. (1,077.20, -6.1%), Polycab India Ltd. (6,164.35, -6.0%) and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd. (598.05, -5.9%).

Movers and Shakers

20 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd. (2,230.15, 12.6%), Star Cement Ltd. (229.77, 6.9%) and Elgi Equipments Ltd. (558.80, 5.6%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were India Cements Ltd. (319.65, -8.3%), Aditya Birla Real Estate Ltd. (1,845.80, -6.7%) and IndiaMART InterMESH Ltd. (2,143.45, -6.6%).

Zydus Wellness Ltd. (1,802, -3.2%) was trading at 20.3 times of weekly average. Bajaj Holdings & Investment Ltd. (11,286.40, 4.5%) and PNB Housing Finance Ltd. (911.45, 1.4%) were trading with volumes 15.9 and 10.9 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

30 stocks tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Astral Ltd. (1,455.40, -0.6%) and Axis Bank Ltd. (959.30, -1.1%).

6 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd. (2,230.15, 12.6%) and Star Cement Ltd. (229.77, 6.9%). 43 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including India Cements Ltd. (319.65, -8.3%) and Aegis Logistics Ltd. (718.65, -6.1%).

 
logo
The Baseline
22 Jan 2025
Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 22, 2025
By Divyansh Pokharna

1. REC:

Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this public sector NBFC with a target price of Rs 530, indicating a potential upside of 11.2%. REC's management plans to double its assets under management (AUM) to Rs 10 lakh crore by 2030, with renewable energy making up about 30% of its portfolio. The company also aims to capture 20% of the market share in the coal-based power plant business. Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya and Pranav Nawale project an AUM growth of ~18% CAGR over FY25-27.

REC has managed higher risks from state government-backed entities by relying on government guarantees for timely repayments. Its selective lending strategy and efforts to resolve stressed loans have helped improve asset quality. Vaidya and Nawale say, “We expect slippages to stay under control, leading to a gradual improvement in asset quality. With credit costs remaining in check, we anticipate healthy earnings growth of 14% CAGR over FY25-27.”

The company’s management expects to maintain net interest margins (NIMs) between 3.5-3.8%, with FY25 NIMs estimated at around 3.6%. The analysts believe that while there may be a slight decline in NIMs, low credit costs will offset this, enabling REC to achieve a stable return on assets (RoA) of 2.5-2.6% and return on equity (RoE) of 20-21% in the medium term.

2. Bharat Electronics:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this defence equipment manufacturer with a target price of Rs 360, indicating an upside potential of 29.1%. Bharat Electronics (BEL) has grown its overall defence market share to 12.8% in FY24 from ~12% in FY23, driven by government focus on defence indigenization. Analysts Teena Virmani, Prerit Jain, and Harsh Tewaney note that the BEL holds nearly 60% market share in the specialized defense electronics segment.

The analysts highlight BEL’s strong order book of Rs 74,600 crore as of Q2FY25. They also note that the company is expanding its presence through strategic business units and focusing on increasing exports and non-defense projects in its order book. In FY24, the company filed 146 intellectual property rights (IPRs), including 82 patents, in areas like AI, radars, and embedded systems. During the same period, 161 patents were granted, comprising approvals from some of the FY24 filings as well as applications submitted in previous years, bringing the total number of granted patents to 208.

Virmani, Jain, and Tewaney project order inflows of Rs 25,000 crore, Rs 32,100 crore, and Rs 38,500 crore for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively. They expect a revenue CAGR of 19% and a net profit CAGR of 20% over the FY25-27. However, the firm is in the PE Sell Zone, currently trading above its historical PE.

3. HCL Technologies:

Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this IT consulting firm with a target price of Rs 2,180, indicating an upside of 21%. In Q3FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 3.6% QoQ, reaching Rs 29,890 crore, driven by improvements in the software, engineering research and development (ER&D), and services segments. EBIT margin expanded by 90 bps to 19.5%, surpassing analyst estimates of 19.3%. Net profit increased by 8.4% to Rs 4,591 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates marginally by 0.3%.

HCL Tech's total contract value (TCV) stood at $2,095 million in Q3FY25, marking a 6% QoQ decline. The company’s management noted that the average duration of signed deals has shortened, leading to moderated TCV. While smaller deals are converting faster, larger deals are taking more time. Analysts believe that HCL Tech is well positioned to deliver growth among Tier-1 IT companies in FY25 and beyond, thanks to its diversified offerings and partnerships with hyperscalers like SAP and ServiceNow.

The company’s share price dropped by 9.3% over the past month and 4.4% during the previous quarter. However, analysts expect the company to continue its growth in the IT services business, which makes up 89% of its total revenue. They forecast a revenue CAGR of 9% and a net profit CAGR of 12% over FY25-27.

4. HDFC Life Insurance Company:

KRChoksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this life insurance company with a target price of Rs 820, indicating an upside potential of 31.4%. In Q3FY25, the company reported a 11.6% YoY growth in gross written premium (GWP) to Rs 17,275 crore, driven by higher contributions from individual and group businesses.

Analyst Dipak Saha mentions that the market share of the company rose by 70 bps to 10.8%. The number of policies sold increased by 15%, outpacing the private sector’s growth of 9%. He notes that the annuity business is expected to grow due to rising awareness of retirement planning and a growing customer base, along with increased demand for guaranteed income products for post-retirement financial security. 

In Q3FY25, the value of new business (VNB) grew by 9.1%, driven by a solid increase in annualized premium equivalent (APE). The company aims for double-digit APE growth in FY25, supported by strong seasonal demand in the January-March quarter. 

Saha expects the annuity and protection businesses to see steady growth, supported by increased demand in tier 2 and tier 3 cities. They expect 15.2% CAGR growth in net premiums, 15.9% in VNB, 23.1% in net profit and 13.8% over FY25-27.

5. Rainbow Childrens Medicare:

Prabhudas Lilladher initiates coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating on this healthcare facilities company with a target price of Rs 1,785. This indicates an upside potential of 23.7%. Analysts Param Desai and Sanketa Kohale believe that the company leveraged its first-mover advantage to establish itself as a leader in India’s pediatrics market, offering specialized healthcare services.

As of Q2FY25, Rainbow Childrens Medicare has 1,523 beds operational out of its total capacity of 1,935 beds. The company plans to add over 380 beds between H2FY25 and FY27 by expanding spokes in Bengaluru and establishing regional hubs in Coimbatore and Rajahmundry. Additionally, the board is exploring mergers and acquisitions in Northeast and West India.

Desai and Kohale project the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 19% over FY25-27, driven by improvements in FY25, new bed additions, and scaling up of recently launched units.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
21 Jan 2025
Market closes lower, Aditya Birla Real Estate's Q3 revenue falls 12.3% YoY to Rs 961.3 crore
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 23,024.65 (-320.1, -1.4%) , BSE Sensex closed at 75,838.36 (-1235.1, -1.6%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,433.20 (-375.8, -1.7%). Market breadth is sharply down. Of the 2,390 stocks traded today, 546 showed gains, and 1,815 showed losses.

Indian indices closed in the red as most of the Q3 earnings, were either in-line or marginally fell short of expectations. Stretched valuations added to the trouble. Zomato was the biggest stock loser on the Sensex today, falling over 10% after its net profit dropped 57.2% YoY. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 3.5% and closed at 17 points.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the red, following the benchmark index. S&P BSE Realty Index and Nifty Realty were among the top index losers today. According to Trendlyne’s Sector dashboard, Telecommunications Equipment emerged as the worst-performing sector of the day, with a fall of 3.6%.

Asian indices closed higher with an exception of Indian indices, while European indices are trading mixed. US index futures traded in the green, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures are trading in the red. Goldman Sachs expects Chinese equity markets to grow 20% over the next 12 months, despite US trade tariff concerns. Kinger Lau, chief China equity strategist at the firm, believes China can absorb additional tariffs this year and anticipates low-teens earnings growth for Chinese companies, excluding the tariff impact.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that Vodafone Idea is in the overbought zone.

  • Indian Railway Finance Corp's net profit grows 2% YoY to Rs 1,630.7 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases marginally by 0.4% YoY to Rs 6,763.4 crore, helped by higher lease income. It shows up in a screener of stocks with improving book value over the past two years.

  • Adani Energy Solutions secures an order worth approximately Rs 25,000 crore for the Bhadla (Rajasthan)-Fatehpur (Uttar Pradesh) High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission project. The order aims to evacuate 6 GW of renewable energy from Rajasthan’s renewable energy zones to demand centers in North India and the national grid. AESL will complete the project within 4.5 years.

  • Aditya Birla Real Estate is falling sharply as it posts a net loss of Rs 40.6 crore in Q3FY25 compared to a net profit of Rs 83.3 crore in Q3FY24 due to higher inventory, land, construction, employee benefits, finance, and depreciation & amortisation expenses. Revenue declines 12.3% YoY to Rs 961.3 crore, caused by a reduction in the pulp and paper segment. It shows up in a screener of stocks with weakening technicals and share price decline.

  • Sudipta Roy, Managing Director & CEO of L&T Finance, projects a 20% growth in assets under management (AUM) for FY25. He adds that the company’s disbursements will be risk-calibrated, with reduced sectoral disbursements in the rural joint liability group segment. Roy expects credit costs to remain high in Q4FY25 and highlights a recovery in the rural segment in Q3.

  • Sunteck Realty is rising as it posts a net profit of Rs 42.5 crore in Q3FY25 compared to a net loss of Rs 9.7 crore in Q3FY24, driven by lower construction and development costs. Revenue surges 2.8X YoY to Rs 161.8 crore during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks with increasing profits every quarter for the past two quarters.

  • South Indian Bank's net profit grows 12% YoY to Rs 342 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 6.9% YoY to Rs 2,817.8 crore driven by improvements in the corporate and retail banking segments. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross and net NPAs decline by 44 bps YoY and 36 bps YoY, respectively. It shows up in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue over the past eight quarters.

  • AGI Greenpac's Q3FY25 net profit grows 34.9% YoY to Rs 90.5 crore owing to lower raw materials, employee benefits, finance, and depreciation & amortisation expenses. Revenue rises 7.8% YoY to Rs 674 crore, led by an improvement in the packaging products segment. It features a screener of stocks with dividend yields greater than their sector average dividend yield.

  • Macquarie maintains a positive outlook for the cement industry, forecasting demand recovery and price hikes to drive margin expansion in H2CY24. The brokerage keeps an 'Outperform' rating on Ultratech Cement with a target price of Rs 11,868. However, it downgrades Ramco Cements to an 'Underperform' rating with a target price of Rs 785.

  • Indoco Remedies is falling as it posts a net loss of Rs 26.4 crore in Q3FY25 compared to a net profit of Rs 16.3 crore in Q3FY24 due to higher inventory, depreciation & amortisation, finance, and employee benefits expenses. Revenue declines 10.9% YoY to Rs 411.4 crore, caused by a reduction in exports. It shows up in a screener of stocks with low Piotroski scores.

  • Tata Elxsi partners with Minespider, a blockchain-powered solutions provider, to Launch MOBIUS+ for battery lifecycle traceability. The partnership will develop a battery lifecycle management platform that combines blockchain and analytics to optimize battery sustainability and compliance across global markets.

  • Multi Commodity Exchange of India falls sharply as it posts a net profit of Rs 160 crore in Q3FY25, compared to a loss of Rs 5.4 crore in Q3FY24, but misses Forecaster estimates by 1%. The profit is driven by a significant reduction in information technology and related expenses. Revenue grows 57.3% YoY to Rs 301.4 crore during the quarter. It features in a screener of stocks underperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

  • Nomura upgrades its rating on Gland Pharma to 'Neutral', with a lower target price of Rs 1,790. The brokerage notes that improved US exports could impact the company’s performance. It attributes lower Enoxaparin supplies to the decline in US exports in Q3 but expects a recovery in Q4. This setback will likely result in a stronger product mix, potentially enhancing YoY gross margin.

  • L&T Finance is rising as its Q3FY25 net profit beats Forecaster estimates by 5.2% despite falling 2.2% YoY to Rs 626.4 crore due to higher finance, impairment on financial instruments, and employee benefits expenses. However, revenue grows 14.6% YoY to Rs 4,105.1 crore, helped by improvements in its retail book and disbursements. It features in a screener of stocks with above-line growth and below-line valuations.

  • Cipla is falling as its wholly-owned subsidiary, Medispray Laboratories, receives a Form 483 with one observation from the US FDA following an inspection at its manufacturing facility in Kundaim, Goa.

  • Landmark Cars is rising as it receives a letter of intent (LoI) from JSW MG Motor India (MGI) to set up new MG Select dealerships in Ahmedabad and Kolkata. The dealerships will be established by its subsidiary, Aeromark Cars, and are expected to be operational by May 2025 with two models, MG Cyberstar and MG M9 EV.

  • One97 Communications (Paytm) declines over 5% as its Q3FY25 contribution margin misses analyst estimates amid higher DLG (default loan guarantee) costs. JM Financial anticipates the impact of DLG costs will normalize, with the contributing margin returning to around 55% (excluding UPI incentives). It believes the company will report PAT profitability next quarter, helped by UPI incentives of Rs 350 crore. The brokerage maintains its 'Buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,250.

  • Vodafone Idea receives a Rs 1,600 crore tax refund as the Supreme Court upholds the Bombay High Court's ruling, dismissing the tax department's appeal due to an unexplained 295-day filing delay.

  • Reliance Power's board of directors appoints Neeraj Parakh as its Chief Executive Officer (CEO) for three years, effective January 20.

  • Jammu & Kashmir Bank's net profit grows 26.2% YoY to Rs 531.5 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue rises 12.6% YoY to Rs 3,448.4 crore, helped by improvements in the treasury, corporate, and retail banking segments. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross NPA declines by 76 bps YoY.

  • CLSA remains cautiously optimistic about the Indian IT sector, forecasting a BFSI-led recovery in 2025. It believes the European auto slowdown presents a significant challenge. The brokerage notes improving deal activity in both large and small deals in H2FY25 and expects a 4.5% YoY growth in managed services, driven by a gradual recovery.

  • Glenmark Pharmaceuticals is rising as it launches its Phytonadione Injectable Emulsion Ampules in the US market, used to treat Vitamin K deficiencies. The ampules are equivalent to Hospira’s Vitamin K1 Injectable Emulsion, with an estimated market size of approximately $19.7 million in the year ending November 2024, according to IQVIA.

  • Oberoi Realty is falling sharply as its net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 4.1% despite surging by 71.7% YoY to Rs 618.4 crore in Q3FY25, helped by lower land, development rights, and construction expenses. Revenue grows 34.5% YoY to Rs 1,460.3 crore, attributed to improvements in the real estate and hospitality segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks with an increasing trend in non-core income.

  • Dixon Technologies (India) is falling as its net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 20.4% despite rising 77.5% YoY to Rs 171.2 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 1.2X YoY to Rs 10,453.7 crore, driven by a 1.9X growth in the mobile and electronics manufacturing services segment during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

  • Zomato falls sharply as its Q3FY25 net profit declines 57.2% YoY to Rs 59 crore due to higher inventory, employee benefits, finance, depreciation & amortisation, advertisement & sales promotion, and delivery & related expenses. However, revenue surges 61.3% YoY to Rs 5,657 crore, driven by improvements in the India food ordering & delivery, hyperpure supplies, quick commerce, and going out segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with expensive valuations according to Trendlyne valuation scores.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 23,389.75 (45, 0.2%), BSE Sensex was trading at 77,261.72 (188.3, 0.2%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,819.60 (10.6, 0.1%).

  • Market breadth is ticking up strongly. Of the 1,944 stocks traded today, 1,386 showed gains, and 524 showed losses.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (369.95, 2.7%), Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. (6,919.15, 2.0%) and Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. (3,823.55, 1.7%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. (15,144.35, -13.8%), Zomato Ltd. (214.55, -10.5%) and Oberoi Realty Ltd. (1,858.05, -7.2%).

Volume Rockets

20 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Global Health Ltd. (1,055.35, 5.4%), Century Plyboards (India) Ltd. (818.65, 3.3%) and Vinati Organics Ltd. (1,745.70, 2.5%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Newgen Software Technologies Ltd. (1,311.35, -16.2%), Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. (15,144.35, -13.8%) and Zomato Ltd. (214.55, -10.5%).

Tanla Platforms Ltd. (666.05, 0.9%) was trading at 22.8 times of weekly average. Sunteck Realty Ltd. (493.60, 0.2%) and Dalmia Bharat Ltd. (1,771.20, 1.1%) were trading with volumes 14.2 and 6.6 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

1 stock overperformed with 52 week highs, while 9 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52 week lows.

Stock touching their year highs included - Biocon Ltd. (390.55, -2.7%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Astral Ltd. (1,464.60, -1.3%) and Axis Bank Ltd. (970.20, -1.8%).

16 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Sammaan Capital Ltd. (160.91, 2.1%) and Star Cement Ltd. (214.87, 2.1%). 23 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Zomato Ltd. (214.55, -10.5%) and Oberoi Realty Ltd. (1,858.05, -7.2%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
20 Jan 2025
Market closes higher, ICICI Lombard's net profit grows 67.9% YoY to Rs 724.4 crore in Q3
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 23,344.75 (141.6, 0.6%) , BSE Sensex closed at 77,073.44 (454.1, 0.6%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,809 (128.8, 0.6%). Market breadth is in the green. Of the 2,431 stocks traded today, 1,503 were gainers and 891 were losers.

Nifty 50 closed in the green after rising in the morning session. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 4.2% and closed at 16.4 points. Kotak Mahindra Bank surged as its net profit grew 10% YoY to Rs 3,304.8 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increased 13.9% YoY to Rs 16,050.4 crore, led by improvements in the treasury, corporate, and retail banking segments.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed higher, following the benchmark index. Nifty Private Bank and S&P BSE Telecom Index were among the top index gainers today. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Telecommunications Equipment emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 2.9%.

Asian indices closed higher, except for Korea’s KOSPI and Thailand’s SET, which closed flat. European indices are trading mixed. US index futures are trading flat, indicating a cautious start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures are trading lower as investors expect US President Donald Trump to lift restrictions on Russia's energy sector in exchange for a deal to end the Ukraine-Russia war.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that PTC Industries is in the overbought zone.

  • Newgen Software Technologies' net profit rises 26.5% QoQ to Rs 89 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 2.6% QoQ to Rs 389.5 crore, driven by higher sales in India, Asia-Pacific (APAC), and the United States regions during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

  • Supreme Petrochem's Q3FY25 net profit grows 5.4% YoY to Rs 71.4 crore, helped by inventory destocking. Revenue rises 18.2% YoY to Rs 1,422.7 crore, led by higher production volumes. It features in a screener of stocks with zero promoter pledges.

  • ICICI Lombard General Insurance's net profit grows by 67.9% YoY to Rs 724.4 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 17.6% YoY to Rs 5,882.8 crore during the quarter, driven by higher sales in the fire, marine, health, crop, and motor segments. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing profits every quarter for the past four quarters.

  • Kalyan Jewellers India rises over 5% as Motilal Oswal AMC issues a clarification, denying social media allegations of bribery related to pushing the company’s shares. Kalyan Jewellers clarified during its earnings call last week that there were no IT raids at its office and dismissed the bribery claims.

  • Nazara Technologies is rising as its board of directors approves raising up to Rs 495 crore through a preferential issue of shares at an issue price of Rs 990 per share.

  • Waaree Renewable Technologies is rising as it receives a letter of intent (LoI) for a Rs 277.2 crore project from a leading wind energy company. The order involves engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) work for a 105 megawatt peak capacity ground-mounted solar power project.

  • Motilal Oswal maintains its 'Buy' call on Infosys with a target price of Rs 2,200 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 21.4%. The brokerage believes the company will benefit from increased discretionary spending in FY26. It expects the firm's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 8.5% over FY25-27.

  • Suresh Iyer, Managing Director & CEO of Can Fin Homes, projects a 15% growth in assets under management (AUM) for FY26, with disbursals ranging between Rs 8,500-9,000 crore in FY25 and Rs 12,000 crore in FY26. He highlights that 'e-khata' (a portal used to keep property records) issues in Karnataka impacted the business by approximately Rs 400 crore in Q3FY25 but notes recent improvements in the process.

  • Netweb Technologies India's Q3FY25 net profit grows 17.9% QoQ to Rs 30.3 crore. Revenue surges 32.6% QoQ to Rs 335.5 crore, helped by improvements in the high performance computing (HPC), hyperconverged infrastructure (HCI), AI systems, high performance storage (HPS), and space & defence segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with improving net cash flow over the past two years.

  • Jio Financial Services' net profit grows marginally by 0.3% YoY to Rs 294.8 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 6% YoY to Rs 438.4 crore during the quarter, helped by higher gain on fair value changes. It shows up in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding in the past quarter.

  • Hitachi Energy India's board of directors approves raising Rs 4,200 crore by issuing equity shares through a qualified institutional placement (QIP) or other securities.

  • Bajaj Finance enters a partnership with Bharti Airtel to offer its retail financial products on the Airtel Thanks App, with plans for a nationwide expansion to Airtel’s network of stores. Rajeev Jain, MD of Bajaj Finance, highlights the partnership's potential to leverage India’s digital infrastructure for inclusive growth and combine the brands' strengths.

  • Banco Products (India) is rising as its wholly-owned subsidiary, Nederlandse Radiateuren Fabriek (NRF), announces an expansion in Romania by opening a new 18,613 sq m warehouse in Chitila. The facility aims to address growing customer demand in the region and improve operational efficiency to support future growth.

  • One97 Communications is rising as its net loss contracts 5.2% YoY to Rs 208.3 crore in Q3FY25, helped by lower payment processing, marketing & promotional, employee benefits, software, cloud & data centre, and finance costs. However, revenue declines 32.8% YoY to Rs 2,016.5 crore during the quarter. It appears in a screener of stocks with the highest recovery from their 52-week lows.

  • Laxmi Dental's shares debut on the bourses at a 32.8% premium to the issue price of Rs 408. The Rs 698.1 crore IPO received bids for 114.4 times the total shares on offer.

  • United Breweries rises more than 5% as recent discussions reveal that the Telangana government assures the company of a price hike within 30-45 days. The government has plans to clear the outstanding dues in installments over the next 12-13 months. The company has decided to resume its beer supply to Telangana Beverages Corporation (TGBCL), effective immediately.

  • Gland Pharma is rising as it receives an establishment inspection report (EIR) from the US FDA following a good manufacturing practices (GMP) inspection at its Pashamylaram facility in Hyderabad in July 2024, marking the closure of the inspection.

  • Ramkrishna Forgings is rising as its Q3FY25 net profit grows 14.7% YoY to Rs 99.6 crore, helped by inventory destocking and lower depreciation & amortisation expenses. Revenue increases 8.1% YoY to Rs 1,077.4 crore, led by an improvement in the forging components segment. The company's board of directors approves setting up a new casting project with a capacity of 30,000 metric tonnes per annum (MTPA) in Jamshedpur.

  • Kotak Mahindra Bank surges as its net profit grows 10% YoY to Rs 3,304.8 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 13.9% YoY to Rs 16,050.4 crore, led by improvements in the treasury, corporate, and retail banking segments. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross NPA declines by 23 bps YoY.

  • Citi maintains a 'Buy' rating on SBI Life Insurance Co with a target price of Rs 2,100. The brokerage believes the company's strong momentum in its agency and unit-linked insurance plan (ULIP) businesses presents a promising opportunity for long-term investors. It also highlights the firm's solid operational performance. However, it highlights that potential regulatory challenges regarding bancassurance continue to pose risks.

  • RBL Bank is falling as its net profit declines 80.7% YoY to Rs 32.6 crore in Q3FY25. However, revenue increases 10.8% YoY to Rs 3,536.3 crore, driven by improvements in the treasury, wholesale, and retail banking segments during the quarter. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross and net NPAs contract by 20 bps and 27 bps YoY, respectively.

  • Tech Mahindra's Q3FY25 net profit declines by 21.4% QoQ to Rs 983.2 crore. Revenue falls by 3.8% QoQ to Rs 13,302.1 crore due to a reduction in the business process services (BPS) segment. It shows up in a screener of stocks with expensive valuations according to the Trendlyne valuation score.

  • Indian Hotels Company's net profit grows 28.9% YoY to Rs 582.3 crore in Q3FY25 due to lower finance costs. Revenue increases 29% YoY to Rs 2,533.1 crore, driven by a 40% increase in new businesses during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving ROE over the past two years.

  • Wipro rises sharply as its net profit grows 4.5% QoQ to Rs 3,353.8 crore in Q3FY25, driven by lower inventory, employee benefits, facility, travel, communication, and legal & professional expenses. Revenue increases 0.3% QoQ to Rs 23,322.9 crore, helped by an improvement in the American market. It appears in a screener of stocks with increasing net profit for the past four quarters.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 23,227.60 (24.4, 0.1%), BSE Sensex was trading at 76,829.60 (210.3, 0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,698.75 (18.5, 0.1%).

  • Market breadth is in the green. Of the 2,005 stocks traded today, 1,158 showed gains, and 784 showed losses.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (1,920.50, 9.2%), Wipro Ltd. (300.25, 6.5%) and United Breweries Ltd. (2,060.60, 5.6%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Supreme Industries Ltd. (4,021.90, -4.3%), UNO Minda Ltd. (1,038.55, -4.1%) and Zomato Ltd. (239.75, -3.6%).

Movers and Shakers

16 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd. (82.73, 16.5%), CreditAccess Grameen Ltd. (999.50, 9.7%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (1,920.50, 9.2%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Supreme Industries Ltd. (4,021.90, -4.3%), Bharti Hexacom Ltd. (1,302.35, -1.7%) and Hatsun Agro Products Ltd. (954.80, -1.6%).

United Breweries Ltd. (2,060.60, 5.6%) was trading at 6.9 times of weekly average. RBL Bank Ltd. (158.18, 2.0%) and Sanofi India Ltd. (5,400, -0.7%) were trading with volumes 5.3 and 5.0 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

1 stock took off, crossing 52 week highs, while 7 stocks tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stock touching their year highs included - Biocon Ltd. (401.55, 2.0%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - MRF Ltd. (1,13,502.10, -0.4%) and ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Ltd. (1,0974.40, -2.7%).

18 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd. (82.73, 16.5%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (1,920.50, 9.2%). 5 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Zomato Ltd. (239.75, -3.6%) and Sapphire Foods India Ltd. (314.25, -1.2%).

 
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The Baseline US
19 Jan 2025
2024 was a banner year for the S&P500. Will 2025 be different?

The rise of the S&P 500 index is supposed to reflect the performance of a diversified group of stocks and sectors. But since the 2010s, it's been more like a Big 7 index, with its rise driven by the most powerful, primarily tech companies. In 2024, the Magnificent 7 -Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Tesla - accounted for more than half of the index's gains.

The index has delivered annual returns of approximately 25% in the last two years. If this growth rate holds up, investors could potentially double their dollars every three years by investing in one of the S&P 500 ETFs. According to Trendlyne, returns were even higher for growth or momentum ETFs, some of which delivered over 35% returns in 2024.

But now, analysts are waiting for the other shoe to drop. Valuations have ballooned, especially for the Magnificent 7, while revenues in promising new areas have failed to materialize. Even superstar investorWarren Buffet has increased cash reserves significantly to over $300 billion, around 28% of total assets.

Volatility worries are also turning up in analyst reports. Donald Trump, the incoming US President, with his all-caps social media pronouncements ("TIKTOK IS LESS OF A DANGER TO THE USA THAN META (FACEBOOK!), WHICH IS A TRUE ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE"), and his impulsiveness, makes market watchers nervous. The S&P 500 is trading at a discount of around 3% from its December high, ahead of Trump's swearing in on January 20.

Commenting on long-term treasury yields nearing 5% levels, Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global, said, “80% of the increase in long rates since September has been driven by worries about fiscal policy (under Trump).” The Trump administration is likely to give analysts at least a few sleepless nights this year.

AI was in the driver's seat in 2024. What happens now?

More than 40% of companies in the index mentioned “AI” during earnings calls as they race to stay competitive in this once in a generation technology shift. NVIDIA, a leading player in AI chips, saw its valuation nearly triple in one year.

According to a Citigroup report on AI, more than half (54%) of the jobs in the finance sector have a high potential for automation. Other sectors with significant automation potential include insurance (48%), energy (43%), capital markets (40%), and travel (38%).

The Mag 7 drove gains for the S&P 500 in 2024. But AI for all its hype, has yet to deliver the money. The 2025 outlook for big tech is less rosy, with rising expenses and little to no return from AI-based services so far. Trendlyne’s Forecaster predicts a modest 7.3% median upside for the Mag 7 in 2025, a notable decline from the median return of over 50% in 2024.

Mag 7’s share of S&P 500 market cap has tripled over the past decade

The winners: semiconductors, healthcare, pharma led industry performance in 2024

Over the past year, semiconductors, electronic equipment, healthcare services, specialty pharma and airlines were the top performers, soaring 70% and more. Semiconductor and electronic equipment companies were fueled by the growing demand for AI applications, 5G networks, and the Internet of Things (IoT), while airline companies benefitted from more travel. Tourists were getting sprayed with water in Barcelona, and the normally mild Japanese were complaining about local transport services being overwhelmed. But tourist traffic kept growing.

Healthcare services and specialty pharma also witnessed strong growth, rising by 73.5% and 70.3%, respectively, over the past year. 

Semiconductors lead with a 93.8% rise, while oil, steel, and discount retailers lag

On the other hand, discount retailers, alcoholic beverages, and steel were among the laggards. Companies like Dollar Tree and Five Below were impacted due to slower consumer spending.

In 2021, the average American over 21 consumed alcohol in an amount equivalent to over 600 standard drinks. But recent state health warnings, and shifts in behavior towards non-alcoholic drinks among younger Americans, is hurting the alcohol industry. Meanwhile, cable/ satellite and steel industries declined by over 13% in the past year.

Analysts predict modest gains for the S&P 500 in 2025

For 2025, the median forecast for S&P hints at a modest outlook, with the index projected to reach 6,600, an 8.2% return. Wells Fargo's high estimate points to a 14% return, while UBS' conservative estimate suggests only a 5% gain. Interestingly, no forecasts predict a negative return for the year. 

Wells Fargo predicts street high S&P 500 target of 7,007 for 2025

Goldman Sachs highlights the correlation between corporate revenue growth and nominal GDP growth, saying, “Corporate revenue growth (at the index level) typically moves in line with nominal GDP growth. Our estimate of 5% sales growth for the S&P 500 is consistent with our forecasts for 2.5% real GDP growth and for inflation to cool to 2.4% by the end of next year.”

The incoming Trump presidency could shake up markets with tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation

From Trump’s inauguration in 2017 to his final day in office, the S&P 500 rose at a CAGR of 13.8%. This was a significant rise even with the pandemic selloff in March 2020, which saw the market’s worst period in decades. Trump’s 2024 re-election can mean more action on tariffs, deportations, deregulation, and tax cuts.

Trump’s 2017 tax cuts increased deficits, with the US trade deficit rising by 41.2% between 2016-2020, the highest since 2008. If Trump's new tax plans are implemented as expected, US debt might rise to 141% of GDP by 2034, compared to 134% without any policy changes. If all his tax promises are fulfilled, debt could increase even more, reaching 150% of GDP.

The stricter immigration rules Trump wants may reduce the labor supply, affecting sectors like hospitality, agriculture, and technology, which rely heavily on foreign labor. Companies reliant on Chinese imports could see a rise in raw material costs with tariffs, which may squeeze profit margins, particularly in the technology, consumer electronics, and manufacturing sectors. But relaxed antitrust regulations may boost mergers, especially in tech, healthcare, and energy.

Trump is promising big changes. The road from promises to policies however, is long and arduous, especially with the thin majorities the Republicans have in the House and Senate.

 
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The Baseline
17 Jan 2025
Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 17, 2025
By Trendlyne Analysis

1. L&T Technology Services:

This IT consulting & software firm surged over 8% on Thursday following the announcement of its Q3 results. Eight large deals secured over the past quarter drove this increase. CEO Amit Chadha further fueled the rise by assuring investors that the company is on track to achieve its $2 billion revenue target in the medium term with an EBIT margin of 17-18%.

In Q3, the company reported sequential revenue growth of 1.8%, reaching Rs 2,687 crore, while net profit rose by 0.9% to Rs 322 crore. The profit remained flat QoQ, primarily due to wage hikes and one-time costs associated with the Intelliswift acquisition. Although revenue for the quarter aligned with Forecaster estimates, net profit fell short of estimates by 3.1%. 

LTTS operates across three segments: mobility, sustainability, and technology, with each segment contributing roughly equal revenue. Over the past quarter, the firm won two large deals in mobility. It also secured two new deals in the sustainability segment. Additionally, it announced three deal wins in the technology segment. 

Regarding future deals, CEO Amit Chadha said, “LTTS is seeing a good number of large deals in the pipeline across all three segments.” He also emphasised that FY26 will outpace FY25 in terms of deal wins. Chadha is confident in the firm's outlook of achieving 10% revenue growth in FY25, including the contribution of Intelliswift.

Post Q3 results, Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on LTTS. Analysts at Sharekhan expect the firm to witness a higher growth trajectory supported by the Intelliswift acquisition, which opens avenues to service three new sectors: retail, fintech, and healthcare. With a target price of Rs 6,500, the stock has a potential upside of over 20%.

2. Biocon:

This biotechnology company has risen by over 6% in the past week and touched a 52-week high of Rs 397.8 today. On January 12th, the company's Malaysian subsidiary received USFDA approval for its insulin units. Motilal Oswal notes that after this approval, all the company’s key biosimilar sites are USFDA-compliant, improving its prospects in the US market. The approval of the Malaysian site opens up commercial opportunities for its ‘B-Aspart’ (synthetic insulin) drug, whose US market size is estimated at $800 million (approximately Rs 6,640 crore).

The company had reported a net loss and a flat revenue in Q2FY25 due to delayed approvals for the US market and increased financial leverage. However, Trendlyne Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue to rise by 9.2% in Q3FY25. HSBC Securities expects an operational turnaround for Biocon driven by multiple catalysts, including its strong pipeline of biosimilars and a recovery in the generics sector, fueled by high-value launches such as generic GLP-1 products (used for weight loss and diabetes treatment). The company also appears on a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

Kedar Upadhye, Chief Financial Officer of the company, discussed the high debt situation in the biologics space, “Net debt in Biologics, which was around Rs 10,800 crore, has now decreased by about Rs 410 crore as of September 30th. Capex for the year is expected to be between Rs 750-830 crore, with half allocated to maintenance and the other half to expanding insulin capacity in Malaysia, driven by strong demand and pricing in global markets.” 

Motilal Oswal has upgraded Biocon to a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 430. The brokerage forecasts a 21% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-27. Given the focus on compliance and the potential business from upcoming products, it has raised the EV/EBITDA multiple for the biologics business to 22x on a 12-month forward basis. Additionally, it notes that timely approval of 'B-Aspart' could offer further upside to biologics sales over FY25-27. It expects Biocon’s potential sales from this product to reach at least $80-100 million (approximately Rs 664 crore to Rs 830 crore).

3. PCBL Chemical:

This petro-products maker has declined by 9.8% over the past week after announcing its Q3FY25 results on January 10. During the quarter, its net profit fell 37.1% YoY to Rs 93.1 crore due to higher material and finance costs, employee benefits and other expenses. Revenue was up 21.3% YoY at Rs 2,010 crore. The company’s net profit missed Forecaster estimates by 7.2%, while revenue missed estimates by 2.3%.

During the December quarter, revenue growth was driven by increased volumes (up 5% YoY at 143,500 MT) and the inclusion of the Aquapharm business. PCBL Chemical acquired Pune-based specialty water chemicals maker Aquapharm Chemicals in January 2024, marking its foray into the global specialty segments including water treatment chemicals and oil & gas chemicals.

PCBL’s carbon black segment (which contributes to over 81% of the total revenue) grew by 2% YoY during the quarter. Sales growth was slower compared to Q2FY25 (up 21.5% YoY) due to a drop in realizations amid crude oil price fluctuations. Commenting on this, Raj Gupta, CFO of the company said, “Volatility in crude prices has affected our realizations, as our main raw material is derived from crude. Additionally, a change in product mix during the quarter also impacted our performance”. Meanwhile, the power segment declined by 1.5% YoY during the quarter. 

During Q3FY25, the company commissioned the second and final phase of its 20,000 MTPA (metric tons per annum) specialty chemical capacity at the Mundra Plant in Gujarat, increasing its total installed capacity to 790,000 MTPA. 

Following PCBL’s results announcement, Nuvama lowered its rating to ‘Hold’ with a target price of Rs 397. The brokerage believes PCBL’s long-term growth prospects look promising with business diversification, but high debt levels and a potential turnaround in Aquapharm remain key factors to monitor.

4. Anand Rathi Wealth:

This capital markets company fell 3.5% on January 13 following the announcement of its Q3FY25 results. Anand Rathi Wealth's (ARW) revenue increased by 29.9% YoY to Rs 237 crore, but it missed Trendlyne Forecaster estimates by 2.6%. Net profit grew 33.3% YoY to Rs 77.3 crore for the quarter. The company also declared a 1-for-1 bonus share issue, offering one bonus share for every equity share held.

The firm’s assets under management (AUM) grew by 38.8% to Rs 76,402 crore. Equity mutual funds (MF) made up 55% of the total AUM, up from 52% in Q3FY24, while debt MF accounted for 5%, down from 9%. The company had initially set an AUM guidance of Rs 72,000 crore for the year, but having exceeded this target, management has revised the guidance to Rs 80,000 crore.

The company’s MF AUM stands at Rs 45,875 crore, which accounts for 1.37% of the total market, valued at around Rs 30 lakh crore. Deputy CEO, Feroz Aziz mentioned that the company aims to increase its market share to 4%. He outlined that achieving this target relies on two key factors: attracting funds faster than the industry average and ensuring the company’s portfolio outperforms the average equity MF. He highlighted that ARW’s portfolio, consisting of 14 schemes, has outperformed the Nifty by around 7.5-8% this financial year, which should help achieve the target.

The company added 1,785 new client families over the past year, increasing its total client base to 11,426. While ARW's stock price has declined by 7.3% in the last month, it outperformed its industry by 4%.

Post results, Motilal Oswal maintains its 'Neutral' rating on the stock. The brokerage projects a revenue and AUM CAGR of 26%, and 28% for PAT over FY25-27, supported by the company’s strong cash flow of Rs 890 crore, a return on equity (RoE) above 40%, and a healthy balance sheet. With a target price of Rs 4,200, the stock has a potential upside of 5.7%.

5. Angel One:

This brokerage company has fallen 6.5% over the past week. The stock faced selling pressure after the company reported its lowest quarterly profit increase (8.1% YoY) in Q3FY25 since its 2020 listing, due to stricter regulations in the derivatives market. 

SEBI introduced new rules in October 2024 that limit retail investor participation in Futures & Options (F&O). These changes included raising the minimum contract size, cutting weekly expiries, requiring upfront premium payments, and stopping popular contracts. Angel One reported a 13% QoQ drop in F&O brokerage to Rs 662.7 crore, with the segment contributing 52.5% to the company’s total revenue in Q3FY25.

Angel One’s revenue increased by 19.1% YoY to Rs 1,263.8 crore. The company also announced a dividend of Rs 11 per equity share, totaling Rs 99.3 crore. This represents 35.3% of the consolidated net profit for Q3FY25.

Dinesh Thakkar, Managing Director of Angel One, stated, “Although a few regulations introduced this quarter caused a temporary industry-wide impact, our aggressive client acquisition strategy, along with the normalization of client activity, will fuel renewed growth momentum in the coming quarters.”

Motilal Oswal lowered its target price while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating. The revised target price of Rs 3,200 suggests a potential upside of 28.2% from the current market price. The brokerage says that Angel One has managed to maintain its profitability by changing its pricing to cover the impact of fee transparency regulations.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.