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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    24 Jul 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 24, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 24, 2025

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. Polycab India:

    Sharekhan reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this cables and wires (C&W) manufacturer with a target price of Rs 8,000, a 16.9% upside. In Q1FY26, the company posted a 26% YoY revenue growth, driven by strong performance in both the C&W and fast-moving electrical goods (FMEG) segments. Exports rose 24% and made up 5.2% of total revenue, with the management aiming to grow this to 10% by 2030. Net profit grew 49% YoY during the quarter. Both revenue and profit exceeded Forecaster estimates.

    Analysts highlight that the management is optimistic about domestic demand, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and growth in the real estate sector. They expect real estate projects to play a key role in boosting wire sales, as it accounts for about 70% of demand in that segment.

    Polycab’s order book stands at Rs 10,000 crore, with Rs 8,000 crore linked to the Bharat Net project (a government drive to expand broadband in rural areas). Analysts are optimistic as the company plans to bid for more such projects and has stated it faces no working capital concerns for executing them. During the quarter, Polycab spent Rs 410 crore on capex and plans to invest over Rs 6,000 crore in the next five years. It expects these investments to generate returns worth 4 to 5 times the amount spent.

    2. Marico:

    Emkay maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this personal products company with a target price of Rs 810, indicating a 14.6% upside. Analyst Nitin Gupta notes that the company’s short-term performance may be affected by rising copra prices in both India and Indonesia. Over the past six months, copra prices have gone up by about 35% in Indonesia and around 70% in India due to the early arrival of the monsoon.

    Gupta expects current cost pressures to ease as market supplies improve in the coming months, which is in line with the company’s view. He believes margins will recover in H2, helped by stronger volumes and better cost control. This, in turn, is likely to support double-digit growth in earnings.

    For its India business, analysts expect Marico to slightly reduce volumes as copra prices ease in the coming months. The company is expected to stay cautious, since dealing with high-cost inventory in the supply chain is difficult. While Marico usually keeps its prices steady during inflation, the recent sharp rise in copra prices has led to monthly price hikes—adding up to a total increase of about 55% in the last six months.

    3. Astral:

    Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this plastic pipes maker with a target price of Rs 1,680, a 14.1% upside. Analyst Eesha Shah notes that Astral is actively expanding both in India and overseas to tap into new growth opportunities. The company has opened marketing offices in Dubai to target the African and Middle Eastern markets with value-added products. It also plans to launch 12–14 new products from its overseas plants. For FY26, Astral has set a capex target of Rs 250–300 crore.

    Astral’s pipes business saw only single-digit volume growth in FY25, mainly due to fluctuating polymer prices, which fell by 18% during the year, and lower government spending. Its adhesive segment reported a 12% EBITDA margin, down by 120 bps, because of volatility in raw material prices and high operating costs. Looking ahead, the company expects EBITDA margins to improve to around 17–18%.

    Hiranand Savlani, Director & CFO, said, “We’re focused on adding more value-added products—these may not boost volumes much, but they deliver higher margins.”

    Shah expects Astral’s revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% and 25.9%, respectively, over FY26–FY27.

    4. Fine Organic Industries:

    Anand Rathi initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this specialty chemical company, with a target price of Rs 6,400, a 18.7% upside. In FY25, revenue increased by 7.8%, supported by higher exports and strong demand for its chemicals.

    Analyst Nitesh Dhoot notes that in Q3 FY25, the management signed an agreement with the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority (JNPA) to establish a 70 kilo tonnes per annum (ktpa) manufacturing facility in a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Maharashtra to increase exports. The company also plans to establish a unit in South Carolina, US.

    Analysts write that the company's international expansion will strengthen its presence and create new growth opportunities once facilities become operational. They expect the company to generate Rs 900 crore in cash by FY27 and project Fine Organic’s revenue and net profit to grow by 11.6% and 15.6%, respectively, over FY26–28.

    Mukesh Shah, Chairman, notes, “Domestic demand for chemicals is growing at 8–10% CAGR. We expect the Patalganga facility, with a capacity of 10 ktpa, to reach full utilisation by the first half of FY27. We also plan to increase the facility’s capacity over the next 6 to 8 months to meet the rising demand.”

    5. ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this general insurance company with a target price of Rs 2,400, a 25.9% upside. In Q1FY26, the company's revenue rose 14.3% YoY to Rs 6,408 crore, driven by higher growth in auto and health segment premiums. Net profit grew 28.7% to Rs 747 crore, supported by strong investment income.

    Management is prioritising profitability over volume in the auto, business insurance, and retail health insurance segments, and avoiding aggressive pricing. Analysts Prayesh Jain and Nitin Aggarwal note that the company is not expanding in the auto insurance segment due to intense competition. They expect margins to improve in third-party auto insurance if the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) approves the proposed rate hike.

    Analysts note that ICICI Lombard is gaining traction in the retail health segment, supported by product innovation and expanding distribution. They expect the industry to gradually recover in FY26, supported by infrastructure spending and a rebound in auto sales, which could support growth. 

    Management aims to reduce the retail health loss ratio (claims paid to premiums earned) to below 70% this fiscal year, compared to 74.3% in FY25, through improved pricing and product mix. Analysts believe this focus on retail health, along with recovery in the business insurance segment and improved industry pricing, will support growth. They expect 23% profit growth in FY26.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    24 Jul 2025
    China's electric tech is building James Bond cars, and entering new industries

    China's electric tech is building James Bond cars, and entering new industries

    By Swapnil Karkare

    On July 11, the Chinese company Moonshot AI launched a new, cutting-edge AI model, Kimi K2. The scientific journal Naturecalled it ‘another DeepSeek moment’. But it did not get the DeepSeek buzz, and barely anyone in the general public noticed. 

    Many recent China news stories, in fact, haven’t caught much media attention. ByteDance for instance, the makers of TikTok, has quietly beaten Meta to become the world’s largest social media company by revenue in the first quarter of this year. China has also announced that it will spend $8.5 billion to boost new start-ups in AI.

    Governments are watching -- and they are worried. At the G7 summit earlier this month, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbell said that they are looking at how to limit China's economic power. "There are concerns that the G-7 countries are losing influence," he said.

    As China becomes increasingly dominant in tech innovation and trade, countries see their domestic economy and industry is under threat. They may have good reasons to worry. Many sci-fi films - from Bladerunner to Terminator - are based in the US. But the future may very well be Chinese.

    China is getting closer to building a James Bond car

    Remember the cars of the fictional British spy? James Bond has cars with missile launchers and ejector seats, that can even run underwater.

    The new launches at the Shanghai Auto Show this year felt like something out of a Bond flick. For instance, the Nio ET9 can turn into a full-fledged 5D theatre, with shaking seats, moving suspension, and AC that syncs with movie action scenes. I would be very interested to find out what happens to that car while playing a Rohit Shetty film.

    BYD is attracting travel vloggers with inbuilt drone cameras for its cars. Nio’s Onvo L60 has a fridge, while Ora has added thoughtful touches for women like menstrual pain relief and a built-in emergency alert.

    As driving and car-charging tech became standard, automakers are in a race to be different by adding other software with more capabilities. The advantage now is all in the software, which is why such cars are called Software-Defined Vehicles (SDVs). 

    Software-first approach gives Chinese cars the edge

    Consider Xiaomi. It has launched an electric car in 2024 that runs on HyperOS — the same system used in its phones and gadgets. The car becomes just another machine in the company's Mi ecosystem, which also includes robot mops, smart watches and lamps.

    Xiaomi cars pack premium features like a Tesla — LiDAR, 800V charging, air suspension — but keeps prices low by cutting margins. AI tech powers everything from self-driving to real-time defect detection. It’s a software-first car compared to Tesla, which is a car with a tech edge. 

    While Tesla still leads the EV category in the Wards Intelligence rankings for both 2023 and 2024, the leaderboard is shifting fast. In 2023, Tesla was followed by Lucid (US), Rivian (US), Nio (China), and Polestar (Sweden).

    But in 2024, Chinese players Nio, Xiaomi and Xpeng occupied second, third and fourth positions, respectively, pushing Rivian down to fifth. Xiaomi grabbed the third place in its first year making electric vehicles. This is a competitor to fear.

    The Squid Game - survival of the fittest - in the auto sector

    State support and smart engineers have played a big role in China's tech rise. But competition is the X factor here.

    The pressure in China's market is brutal.  Out of nearly 500 new electric vehicle makers in 2018, over 90% have failed, and another 80% are expected to disappear in the next five years. This Darwinian race has left only the most innovative and financially smart companies still standing.

    This approach has killed many entrepreneurial dreams in China, but it has helped the economy and people. China became a net exporter of cars in the last few years, from being a net importer in 2020. And average EV prices in China are down by 14% since 2023. 

    One company, many different industries

    Right now, BYD is busy building the world’s largest battery storage facility of 12.5GWh in Saudi Arabia. It is applying all its EV knowhow to other industries. It is using its signature blade battery across industries to make energy storage systems, and borrowing the lithium iron phosphate chemistry and ceramic insulation tech from its cars.

    Many components used in EVs — like batteries, motors, power electronics, and software — are also used in drones, robots, and home appliances. This modular approach to manufacturing is known as the “Lego block” structure. The knowledge from making smartphones and cars is now being used in drones and AI-driven gadgets. 

    China's electric tech stack is powering new products across the economy

    Electric batteries, motors, power electronics and computing are the main drivers of innovation in China right now. It's being called China’s ‘electric tech stack’.

    Two main aspects have helped them develop this stack. The first is domestic control over the full value chain. From mining lithium, cobalt, and rare earths to refining, battery production, and final assembly, Chinese firms can develop vertical integration faster, fix supply chain bottlenecks, reduce costs and launch products quickly.

    Second is the location. In places like Shenzhen, suppliers, engineers, and factories operate next to each other. Engineers can walk from the design studio to the assembly line, solving problems quickly. Similarly, an EV maker in Shanghai can get all its components in just four hours from Changzhou, a place that handles 31 of the 32 steps in battery production, covering 97% of the value chain.

    It's a bird...it's a car? China's push for a flying economy

    If you can build a car, why not a flying one? Backed by a mature EV supply chain, Chinese companies like Ehang, XPeng, Autoflight, and Geely’s AeroFugia are building eVTOLs (electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles) using the same battery and technology. 

    China is pushing for a low-altitude flying economy, with air taxis, drone deliveries, etc., with a roadmap that includes pilot licenses, aerial tolls, and eVTOL test zones.

    At the centre of it all is DJI, which commands over 70% of the global drone market. With over 2.2 million civilian drones flying across China, their use in warfare has drawn scrutiny. Beijing is also ramping up drone production for defence, including a mosquito-sized surveillance drone that’s light, silent, and controlled via smartphone.

    Are robots going mainstream?

    Unitree's G1 robot, available for online purchase, has recently gone viral online and nicknamed 'Uncle Bot' for its natural movement and behavior. Many Chinese tech players including car makers are leaning into robotics.

    Robotics and electric cars share deep technological overlap — both rely on sensors, batteries, motors, and advanced algorithms. Around 70% of components are interchangeable between these sectors. That’s why automakers like BYD, Xiaomi, SAIC, GAC, XPeng, and Huawei are entering robotics.

    XPeng’s Iron Robot, for instance, uses the navigation systems of autonomous vehicles. GAC Group’s GoMate robot runs on EV battery packs. 

    China has over 230,000 robotics firms, supported by a roadmap to mass-produce humanoid robots and build a $43 billion industry by 2035. XPeng’s chairman urged an EV-style policy support for robots, predicting similar explosive growth. 

    AI investment is much lower in China compared to the US

    AI is poised to be the main computing agent in all applications, products, and services. The government is driving AI investments through labs, data centres, and partnerships with firms like Alibaba and ByteDance. It is going to invest $56 billion out of a total $84–98 billion projected in 2025.

    This is opposite of the US, where almost all investment is private sector-driven. For instance, AI capex by US tech Big 4 (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta) is estimated to be $302 billion in 2025, whereas for China’s Big 4 (Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, and Tencent) it is at $51 billion. Absolute spending in the US is almost six times higher than China. 

    Will this tech stack help China dominate the world?

    China’s manufacturing scale is reshaping global markets. It’s a leader in many areas like batteries, solar panels, rare earth production, drones and robotics. Its dominance gives it geopolitical leverage, as recently seen in the case of rare earths. 

    China-made products are no longer inferior to their Western counterparts in terms of quality and functionality. They are also usually 20–40% cheaper. That forces countries to impose tariffs and curb trade. But that has not stopped innovation in China. 

    For instance, Nvidia was asked not to export chips to China by the US government, creating a shortage of chips in China. Nio, which relied on Nvidia chips earlier, now uses its own ET9 chips. “It’s precisely the shortage of semiconductors that is leading China to develop their own faster,” says Frank Bournois, dean of the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.

    Still, challenges remain. Global firms are diversifying supply chains, while China faces a slowing economy, youth unemployment, ageing demographics, and a post-Covid trust deficit — making global dominance harder. But the Chinese government is ambitious, and so far, its efforts have been paying off.



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    The Baseline
    18 Jul 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 18, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 18, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. AWL Agri Business:

    This FMCG company, formerly known as Adani Wilmar, jumped 6% on Thursday after the Adani Group announced the sale of a 20% stake in the company to Wilmar International. With this stake purchase, Singapore-based Wilmar becomes the majority shareholder in the company. Adani Group plans to exit entirely by selling its remaining 10% stake to “a set of pre-identified” investors.

    In Q1 FY26, the company reported YoY revenue growth of 20%, led by strong pricing in the edible oils segment. However, it missed Forecaster estimates by 5%, mainly due to lower volumes and exit from the government rice export business.

    Higher input costs, especially for palm oil, weighed on profitability. Net profit declined 24% YoY in Q1, and EBITDA margin dropped to 2.1%. Addressing this, MD & CEO Angshu Mallick said, “We expect some improvement in demand starting July, with the onset of the festive season and easing raw material cost pressures, especially in palm.”

    The company operates across three key segments—Edible Oils, Industry Essentials, and Food & FMCG. Although the edible oil segment brings in 80% of revenue, it contributed only 50% to total profit, highlighting its low-margin nature. In contrast, the Industry Essentials segment, which includes castor oil and oleochemicals, delivered 28% of profits from just 13% of sales, aided by near-full capacity utilisation. The Food & FMCG segment also added 21% to profits, despite accounting for only 8% of sales in Q1.

    AWL Agri reported fairly substantial retail expansion, directly reaching customers via 8.7 lakh outlets. It saw 26% YoY growth in rural areas and 11% in urban markets. Mallick expects the Food & FMCG segment to “continue to grow in double digits given the expansion in product pipeline and distribution.” He adds that the company aims to generate Rs 10,000 crore in revenue from this segment by FY27, with rural growth playing a key role. 

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a higher target price of Rs 360. The brokerage is optimistic about the company’s transition from a commodity-driven business to a more stable and profitable FMCG model. However, it also flags volatility in raw material prices and execution risks in scaling the branded food portfolio as potential headwinds.

    2. Allied Blenders & Distillers (ABD):

    This breweries & distilleries company rose by 8.1% over the past week. This surge followed the Maharashtra government's July 15th announcement of plans to issue 328 new wine shop licenses, a move set to increase licensed liquor outlets by 19% (from 1,713). This policy shift, which aims to boost state revenue, is expected to generate an additional Rs 14,000 crore annually in excise revenue. Allied Blenders & Distillers (ABD), having opened its second Maharashtra distillery in January and as India's third-largest Indian made Foreign Liquor (IMFL) company, is set to significantly benefit.

    Despite Maharashtra's growing population, the number of licensed liquor outlets has remained static since the 1970s, leading to just 1.5 shops per lakh people—far below the national average of six. However, implementing changes faces significant challenges due to cultural opposition and bar association protests over hiked excise duties, creating an intense situation for these policy reforms.

    For FY25, the company reported a 6.2% increase in revenue, driven by growth in its Prestige & Above (luxury) portfolio. Trendlyne Forecaster projects a 12.3% revenue growth in FY26, attributing it to the company's focus on expanding reach to other countries and premiumization efforts. The stock has also appeared on a screener of stocks which have outperformed their industry over the past month.

    Alok Gupta, the Managing Director of ABD, expressed confidence in the company's future, stating, "FY26 will be a year of momentum, backed by positive consumer sentiment, stable input costs, and a supportive policy landscape. Growth in the super premium to luxury segment will be driven by rising disposable incomes and demand for experience-based consumption.” The anticipated UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) may also reduce Scotch import duties.

    According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, 5 analysts have a consensus recommendation of “Strong Buy”, with an average target price of Rs 516.6. ICICI Securities projects moderate volume growth of about 3% CAGR for the company's mass premium segment from FY26-27. Realization growth, however, is expected to come from price increases.

    3. Computer Age Management Services (CAMS):

    Thismutual fund services company rose 2.9% on July 15 after Motilal Oswalraised its target price to Rs 5,000 and reiterated its ‘buy’ rating. CAMS is a prominent tech services player in the finance space – it handles the back-end operations for mutual funds and also offers digital services in insurance, payments, and investor verification (KYC).

    India’s mutual fund industry hasgrown rapidly, from around Rs 25 lakh crore in mid-2020 to over Rs 74 lakh crore by June 2025, and is projected to cross Rs 130 lakh crore by FY30. As the main registrar that handles about 68% of industry assets, CAMS is likely to benefit from this growth. Higher mutual fund volumes means more transactions, investor accounts, and servicing needs, which would support steady revenue growth across CAMS’ core and allied services.

    InFY25, its revenue grew 25.3% to 1,475.1 crore, while its net profit surged 33% to 470.2 crore. Strong growthcame from its continued leadership in the mutual fund registrar and transfer agent (RTA) segment, a 29% rise in equity assets under management (AUM), and a 51% jump in SIP registrations. CAMS alsoadded three new AMC mandates and its first international MF client, CeyBank Asset Management Company, a Sri Lankan AMC. Non-MF businesses, which contributed 14% of revenue, grew nearly 25%, led by CAMS KRA and CAMSPay.

    While the core RTA business accounts for approximately 87% of its revenue, CAMS continues todiversify into non-MF segments to mitigate concentration risk.

    One of the keychallenges for CAMS is a pricing reset with a major mutual fund client. The company reduced its service fees earlier than planned, as older pricing models based on physical processes no longer made sense in the digital age. This changecaused a Rs 14 crore revenue hit in the Q4 and a 4% drop in the fees CAMS earns from servicing mutual funds.

    Anuj Kumar, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer,said, “About half the pricing impact is already in the books (Q4). The remaining will flow through Q1 and Q2. After that, we expect to return to growth.”

    Motilal Oswal remains positive on the stock, citing strong positioning and steady non-MF growth, but also flagged near-term margin pressure from the repricing impact. The brokerage expects non-MF revenue to grow 21% and MF revenue 9% annually over FY25-27.

    4. Tata Technologies:

    This IT software firm rose over 2% on July 15 as its Q1 FY26 revenue and net profit came in well above Forecaster estimates, despite a QoQ decline. Net profit dropped 9.8% and revenue declined 2.6%, mainly due to slower activity in core services as project ramp-ups were delayed and clients held back on spending. The product segment also saw weak growth because of the typical seasonal slowdown in the first quarter.

    Tata Technologies’ core auto segment was affected by delays in project ramp-ups, especially from North American carmakers. These companies held back on R&D spending after the US announced higher tariffs on auto imports in April. They are now looking at shifting manufacturing operations to the US to avoid the tariffs. Since over 60% of Tata Tech’s revenue comes from the auto sector, this had a notable impact. However, the company saw signs of recovery in the second half of the quarter by closing six new deals, four worth over $10 million (~Rs 86 crore) each and two over $5 million.

    Analysts believe the management's positive outlook comes from a stronger order book at the end of Q1 compared to last year. However, slowing global demand amid rising tariffs remains a concern for the auto segment's growth. Additional pressure from export restrictions of rare earth metal by China is weighing down growth.

    Warren Harris, MD & CEO, said that tariff announcements in April created uncertainty, causing many clients to pause or delay their orders. He mentioned that while customer decisions were initially expected in April, they only came through by late June. This delay makes the company more confident about better performance in Q2 and the rest of the year. However, he added, “We don't anticipate a V-shaped recovery (quick and sharp rebound), in part because of uncertainty due to trade tensions.”

    ICICI Securities has a ‘Sell’ rating on Tata Technologies with a price target of Rs 510. The brokerage expects revenue to decline by 1.5% in FY26, which is in contrast to the management’s aim of double-digit growth. It also pointed out that the stock’s high valuation amid slow recovery in the auto segment remains a key concern.

    5. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals:

    This pharmaceutical company rose 20% to a 52-week high of Rs 2,286.1 on July 11. The rally came after its subsidiary, Ichnos Glenmark Innovation (IGI), signed a licensing agreement with AbbVie for exclusive rights to commercialise its blood cancer drug ISB 2001 (myeloma), with a global market size of $27.5 billion in 2024.

    The drug is currently in phase I trials. AbbVie will further develop, manufacture and market the drug worldwide. IGI will receive an upfront payment of $700 million (Rs 5,850 crore) from AbbVie following regulatory approvals. The company is also eligible to earn up to $1.2 billion (Rs 10,000 crore) from FY27 onwards as the drug reaches sales milestones. IGI will also receive double-digit royalties on sales generated by AbbVie.

    Managing Director, Glenn Saldanha,said, “We plan to transition to an innovation-led business over the next five years in dermatology, respiratory, and oncology segments.” He emphasises that this deal with AbbVie supports the goal of increasing patented medicines revenue to 70% by 2030, up from 60%.

    The company’s revenue rose 6.1% to Rs 13,435.4 crore in FY25, driven by growth in India and the European market, new product launches, and regulatory approvals. The net profit turned positive at Rs 1,047 crore, driven by lower raw material costs and a decline in tax expense, compared to a loss in the previous year.

    Glenmark’s US revenue declined 5.4% in FY25 due to delays in regulatory approvals. Senior General Manager Utkarsh Gandhi expects an uptick in US sales, driven by the launch of respiratory and injectable products. The company expects revenue growth of up to 12% in FY26, supported by product rollouts in Russia, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Southeast Asia regions.

    Post the deal, Motilal Oswalreiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on Glenmark with a target price of Rs 2,430. The brokerage expects that the partnership with AbbVie will drive earnings for Glenmark in domestic and international markets. Over the past two years, Glenmark has strengthened its portfolio in the higher-margin oncology portfolio, which is supporting sales growth. The brokerage projects net profit to grow at a CAGR of 20% over FY26-27.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    17 Jul 2025

    Chart of the Week: Government schemes, high capacity utilisation drive upbeat capex plans

    By Abdullah Shah

    Capex, or capital expenditure, is typically a positive signal, indicating that the company is upbeat about its future and planning its next leg of growth. 

    So capex growth forecasts by analysts are a useful proxy for industry optimism and future growth, and help justify current valuations. 

    After several muted quarters in capex spending, a report by the Union Bank of India says that FY26 looks promising, with both fiscal consolidation and higher capex outlays. Capex in April-May FY26 rose 54% YoY to Rs 2.2 lakh crore (19.7% of the Rs 11.2 lakh crore annual target), indicating frontloaded government spending to boost demand.

    Group CEO of Infomerics Valuation and Ratings, Shubham Jain, said, “India's economy is expected to grow at a rate of 6.3-6.8% in the next 12 to 18 months. This growth will be driven by strong domestic consumption and government-led infrastructure spending.”

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at the most dominant sectors, software & services, general industrials, utilities, and metals & mining, that turn up in a screener of stocks with high Forecaster capex growth estimates. 

    Software & services sector ramps up AI, cloud investments

    15 of the top 100 stocks with the highest capex forecasts are in the software & services sector. Research firm, Gartner estimates the industry to grow 11.1% to $161.5 billion in 2025. 

    The sector has received strong deals in the cloud computing and artificial intelligence segments over the past two years. In 2024, Indian companies spent over $8.5 billion on public cloud services, with forecasts estimating it to reach $13 billion by 2026.

    As of 2024, 65% of Indian IT services firms have integrated AI robotic process automation (RPA) into client offerings, with high demand from banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI), manufacturing, and retail clients. This has prompted the software & services companies to ramp up the development of AI and cloud services, leading to higher capex spends.

    IT consulting & software firms such as MphasiS, Tata Elxsi, Zensar Technologies, and HCL Technologies are among the major contributors to this trend.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates MphasiS’ capex to surge 556.2% in FY26. The company’s deal pipeline consists of 65% deals in the AI segment in Q4FY25, up from 25% in Q4FY24. The management plans to invest in AI to enhance client experience while keeping the cost to serve low. This involves integrating AI directly into business operations, and continuing these investments regardless of the macro environment. 

    Nitin Rakesh, Chief Executive Officer of MphasiS, said, “We will be focused on growing the deal pipeline and total contract value (TCV), with AI-led deals playing a bigger role. We plan to invest in our AI solutions while staying within our target margin band.”

    Internet software company Just Dial has the highest capex growth estimate of 826.1% in the sector, while Tata Elxsi and Zensar Technologies are expected to see a capex growth of 356.9% and 296.6%, respectively. 

    Software products developer Tata Technologies is estimated to increase its capex by 288.2%, while HCL Tech is expected to grow its capex by 199.8% in FY26. Both companies are also investing in AI and cloud computing services.

    PLI push and rising utilisation drive industrial capex upswing

    General industrials is seeing a sharp rise in capital investment. Backed by government initiatives like "Make in India" and PLI schemes, companies are actively setting up and expanding production facilities. A key trend driving this is improving capacity utilisation — existing plants are running closer to their full potential, which justifies further expansion.

    The Economic Survey 2024-25 noted, "Manufacturing is resilient, with capacity utilisation above long-term averages, and private sector investment continues to grow steadily." Reflecting this momentum, 13 out of the top 100 stocks in our screener are from the general industrials sector.

    HEG leads in capex growth estimates with a 418.2% rise expected in FY26, driven by its Rs 1,850 crore graphite anode plant. This electrodes manufacturer expects to maintain or slightly improve utilisation this year. Chairman and CEO Ravi Jhunjhunwala said, “We aim to keep utilisation at 80-85%, compared to an average of 50-60% of our international peers.”

    Electrical equipment firm Hitachi Energy, preparing for India’s major grid expansion (from 400 GW to 900 GW), is putting a large part of its recent QIP funds toward factory upgrades, machinery, and infrastructure. Its FY26 capex is five times what it spent between FY20 and FY25.

    Explosives company Solar Industries’ order book has jumped from Rs 2,600 crore in FY24 to Rs 13,000 crore in FY25. ICICI Securities expects the company to invest Rs 15,000 crore over the next five years as it scales up in defence orders. CEO Manish Nuwal noted, “Solar has signed a Rs 12,700 crore MoU with the Government of Maharashtra to invest in defence and aerospace,” adding that defence revenue will rise to "over 30% from the current 18%" driven by this capex.

    Forecaster projects defence products maker Zen Technologies capex to grow by over 300% in FY26 to Rs 125 crore. However, the company missed the Forecaster estimates sharply for FY25 capex. CEO Ashok Atluri stated, “We’ve allocated Rs 70 crore for the R&D facility and another Rs 5 crore for equipment. We make budgets, but we spend when opportunities come up or when we see a gap in our products.”

    Utilities sector capex surges on Government schemes

    The utilities sector also features in the screener, with eight among the top 100 companies. The government has introduced several schemes to modernise the power distribution infrastructure and increase the share of renewable energy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the ‘Panchamrit’ goals at the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow. 

    Under Panchamrit goals, the government aims to achieve a renewable energy capacity of 500 gigawatt (GW) by 2030, with 50% of the energy requirement being met by renewable energy. 

    Power infrastructure players like JSW Energy, Adani Power, and Techno Electric & Engineering are capitalising on the government’s push to modernise the energy sector. Techno Electric has the highest Forecaster capex growth estimates of 790.7% among utilities stocks in FY26. The company’s Director & CEO, Ankit Saraiya, in an interview with CNBC, announced a $1 billion (~ Rs 8,598 crore) investment plan to set up a total data centre capacity of 250 megawatt (MW) across India by 2030.

    The company plans a capex of Rs 5,000 crore in FY25-26, with half of the capex assigned for smart meters and the remaining shared between expansion of data centres and tariff based competitive bidding (TBCB) power transmission projects.

    Green energy firm ACME Solar Holdings is riding the government capex waves in the renewables sector, with Forecaster estimates capex growth of 308.8% in FY26. The company plans to invest Rs 17,000 crore to expand its renewable energy capacity to 5 GW in FY26. It aims to add new capacities in the hybrid and firm & dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) segments. 

    ACME Solar’s CEO, Nikhil Dhingra, said, “Our growth plan is not only focused on expanding solar capacity but also diversifying the project mix. Our under-construction projects include a mix of solar, wind, FDRE, and hybrid solutions. These projects have a short capex to revenue cycle, ensuring faster accretion of revenue and margin benefits.”

    Forecaster projects JSW Energy’s capex to grow 227.8% in FY26. The company plans an investment of Rs 15,000-18,000 crore during the financial year to increase its renewable energy and energy storage capacity. 

    Adani Power also shows up in the screener with Forecaster estimating a 192.1% increase in capex during FY26. This Adani Group company plans a capex of Rs 13,000 crore to increase its thermal power generation capacity to 30.7 GW by FY30. 

    Metals & mining firms ramp up expansion, eye backward integration

    Six out of the top 100 stocks belong to the metals & mining sector, which is currently witnessing strong capex activity as companies expand existing production and set up new integrated facilities. 

    A key trend across the sector is the shift toward value-added products to boost profit margins. At the same time, companies are looking to cut operational costs through backward integration and better logistics, such as building slurry pipelines to reduce transportation expenses.

    The plan to commission the cold-drawn pipe is driving Maharashtra Seamless’ capex growth estimate of over 1000%. The company, which manufactures steel products, is focusing its Rs 850 crore capex on this project, with machinery already ordered and expected to arrive later this year. Cold-drawn pipes are high-precision pipes used in sectors like oil & gas and automotive. The company expects this expansion to boost its annual turnover by Rs 1,900 crore.

    Mining firm Lloyds Metals & Energy plans to invest around Rs 6,000-6,500 crore in FY26 and over Rs 7,000 crore in FY27. Managing Director Rajesh Gupta said, "The ongoing capex is heavily geared towards backward integration," referring to key projects such as a pipeline to move raw materials more efficiently, a facility to make sponge iron, and its own power plant—all of which are close to completion.

    Non-ferrous metals processor Gravita has planned a Rs 1,500 crore capex through FY28, including Rs 1,000 crore for expanding current operations and Rs 500 crore for entering new areas such as lithium-ion battery recycling, paper, rubber, and steel.

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    The Baseline
    17 Jul 2025
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    The Baseline
    17 Jul 2025
    How much does India need a trade deal with the US? | Screener: Stocks with the biggest US exports

    How much does India need a trade deal with the US? | Screener: Stocks with the biggest US exports

    Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump have something in common: they both like taglines and punchy names. The Big Beautiful Bill, Atmanirbhar, Acche Din, Make America Great Again. So when they got together in February this year, it was inevitable that they would come up with a new catchphrase for the future India US trade relationship - the US-India COMPACT ("Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology").

    Coining the phrase was the easy part. Actually reaching a compact or trade agreement, has turned out to be a bit tricky. From the argument over US exports of "non veg milk" - where American dairy cows are fed meat and blood products - to opening up India's agri sector to genetically modified US crops, there have been many disagreements.

    Combine this with Trump having one hammer for many nails, threatening tariffs for nearly every political issue - like 500% tariffs on India for importing Russian oil - and a trade deal becomes even harder.

    No surprise then that the US, despite promising "90 deals in 90 days" in April, has only been able to strike deals with the UK and smaller countries like Indonesia and Vietnam.  

    Trump has complained that India is “the highest tariffed nation anywhere in the world.” And while this is a man with a tendency to exaggerate ("I'm a very stable genius", anyone?), India does charge high tariff rates, averaging around 12% on imports compared to 6% in Thailand, 5% in Vietnam, 3% in China and 2% in Japan.

    So these two sides both claim unfair demands from the other, but are working to find common ground. How much does this deal matter to India?

    In this week's Analyticks:

    • (Maybe) on the brink of a deal: How much does India need a deal with the US?
    • Screener: Stocks with the highest merchandise exports to the US

    For India, the US is a heavy hitter as a trading partner

    Years ago, a study found that Gujaratis had settled in 129 of the world's 190 countries. There were Gujarati families in Nauru, a Pacific Island country of 9,000 people, and Gujaratis working in the diamond mines of Yellowknife, a distant town in northern Canada. But while many millions of Indians are migrants, settling everywhere from the UK to Botswana to Kuwait, India has policy-wise been an inward looking country. Besides software, our country's industries stayed domestically focused while our rival China pushed its exports across the world. 

    The attitude has changed in recent years, with the government pushing for trade deals with the UK, EU, Australia and other major countries, and providing significant incentives to exporters. Merchandise exports have grown steadily,  but services growth, thanks to software exports, have still outperformed overall. 

    There is little doubt that India got a big export boost after China originated the Covid pandemic, and countries reconsidered their over-dependence on Chinese products. But India has yet to fully take advantage. One notable exception here has been in mobile exports. 

    From Apple phones to HP laptops, a lot of electronics are being increasingly assembled in India instead of China. Nearly 18% of India's total merchandise exports go to the US. And electronics, pharma, textiles are big export segments to the US. 

    The US for example accounts for nearly one third of India's total electronics exports, and nearly 20% in pharma. 

    For these dominant sectors, having lower tariff rates would make India more competitive and boost an existing advantage. A Niti Aayog report published earlier this month, noted that major exporter economies like Canada and China have been slapped with high US tariffs in the range of 30-35%. This already gives India a relative export advantage in 78 products that make up 52% of India’s exports to the US. These include electronics, mineral fuels, apparel, plastics and furniture, worth in total of $1,265 billion.

     The government is eyeing this as a major opportunity, and considering new PLI schemes for these industries, as well as lower setup and electricity costs for manufacturers.

    But a US-India trade deal would supercharge this advantage.

    The last round of India–US trade talks ran from June 26 to July 2. The Indian team is now again back in the US, trying to hammer out a deal. A favourable deal for Indian sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, garments, plastics and chemicals, could dramatically increase exports for domestic manufacturers in these segments, and boost job growth. 

    So while India's ministers like Piyush Goyal have talked tough, saying India won't negotiate on a deadline, everyone is watching a clock that ticks towards August 1, when the tariffs kick in. 


    Screener: Stocks with the highest merchandise exports to the US

    Largest merchandise exporters to the US

    As we move closer to the August 1 deadline set by President Trump for import tariffs to take effect, India is reportedly close to finalising a trade deal. The US is India’s largest export market, with a trade surplus of $41.2 billion generated in FY25. In this screener, we look at stocks with the highest merchandise exports to the US.

    The screener consists of stocks with significant merchandise exports to the US. These stocks come from the pharmaceuticals, auto parts & equipment, gems & jewellery, consumer electronics, agrochemicals, and textiles industries. Major stocks in the screener are Reliance Industries, Titan, Sun Pharma, Hindalco Industries, Samvardhana Motherson International, Dixon Technologies, Glenmark Pharma, PI Industries, and UPL. 

    President Trump warned about imposing a 200% import tariff on Indian pharmaceutical companies on July 9, after giving them 12-18 months to set up manufacturing facilities in the US. The Indian pharma industry generated $9 billion (~ Rs 76,831 crore) in sales from the US. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and Glenmark Pharma were among the largest contributors. Sun Pharma reported a $1.9 billion (~Rs 16,330 crore) revenue from the US in FY25, contributing 30% of the company’s total revenue. Glenmark Pharma generated Rs 3,017.2 crore from the US in the same period, approximately 22.9% of its total revenue.

    The agrochemicals industry also faces potential risks from Trump tariffs. In FY25, the industry generated $5.7 billion (~ Rs 48,978 crore) in revenue from sales to the US. UPL and PI Industries are among the largest exporters of chemicals to the US. UPL generated $728 million (~ Rs 6,060 crore) in sales from the US, contributing to 13% of its total revenue. Meanwhile, PI Industries reported $405 million (~ Rs 3,359 crore), contributing to approximately 42% of its total revenue.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    15 Jul 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 15, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 15, 2025

    By Omkar Chitnis

    1. Ujjivan Small Finance Bank:

    BoB Capital Markets initiates coverage on this bank with a ‘Buy’ and a target price of Rs 59, an 18.8% upside. The bank is focusing on de-risking its balance sheet with a shift towards secured lending. This is reflected in the rising share of secured loan disbursements, to 40% in FY25 from 24% in FY24. 

    Within the unsecured portfolio, the bank has moved towards higher-yielding individual loans (IL), over the past year. Analysts Niraj Jain and Vijaya Rao expect the bank’s advances to grow at a 19% CAGR over FY26–FY27, driven mainly by growth in the secured and IL segments.

    Ujjivan’s asset quality remains better than its peers, with a gross NPA ratio of 2.2% as of March 2025, down 50 bps from the previous quarter. While slippages rose sharply during the year, most of them came from the microfinance (MFI) portfolio. This suggests that the asset quality of the secured, non-MFI portfolio has stayed largely healthy.

    Jain and Rao expect credit costs to improve as stress in the MFI portfolio appears to have peaked. However, they believe credit costs may remain high in H1FY26, with a gradual normalisation expected in the second half. They expect this moderation in credit costs, once it happens, to be a key driver for improvement in the bank’s return metrics.

    2. Gabriel India:

    Anand Rathi initiates coverage on this auto parts company with a ‘Buy’ rating and target price of Rs 1,400, a 28% upside. Analysts Mumuksh Mandlesha and Shagun Beria expect Gabriel’s restructuring plans to merge its private automotive companies into Gabriel, increasing its revenue to Rs 8,100 crore from Rs 4,089 crore in FY26.

    In FY25, its revenue grew by 8.9% to Rs 3,643.3 crore, supported by higher sales in two-wheelers and utility vehicles (UV). Analysts note that the company holds a dominant 70% share in EV automobile suspensions and expect strong growth from its rising passenger vehicle market share. They estimate revenue and net profit to grow by 22% and 53%, respectively, over FY26–27.

    Analysts note that Gabriel has partnered with Inalfa Roof Systems, a supplier of automotive roof systems, to manufacture sunroofs, and expect this partnership to contribute revenue of Rs 10,000 crore by FY29. MD Atul Jagginotes, “The sunroof business is experiencing strong demand, supported by the higher sales of UVs and new vehicle launches. We plan to double sunroof production capacity in the second half of FY26 and expand the product portfolio.”

    3. KEC International:

    Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this heavy electrical equipment firm with a target price of Rs 950, an 8.1% upside. The company has an order book worth over Rs 44,639 crore, with 61% from power transmission and distribution (T&D) and the remaining from other segments. Management expects total order inflows of Rs 30,000 crore during FY26, providing revenue visibility for the next 6 to 8 quarters. The company has guided for 15% revenue growth in FY26.

    KEC International’s EBITDA margin stood at 6.9% in FY25 and is expected to improve going forward, supported by the execution of international T&D projects and other high-margin assignments. Management has guided for margins in the range of 8% to 8.5% in FY26. Analysts Uttam Srimal and Shikha Doshi project margins to further rise to 9% by FY27.

    The stock has declined by 7.5% over the past six months as it has missed revenue estimates for the last two quarters, raising concerns over execution despite a strong order book. However, analysts are positive on KEC International, noting that the government is steadily increasing spending on infrastructure. They project a 55% net profit CAGR over FY26–FY27.

    4. Larsen & Toubro (L&T):

    Ventura initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this construction company with a target price of Rs 4,448, a 27.3% upside. In FY25, revenue increased by 15.3% and profit rose by 15.1%, helped by higher order inflows and strong project execution.

    Analysts note that rising government spending on rural and urban development, along with private spending on capacity expansion, is driving strong order inflows for L&T and supporting its expansion in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. L&T’s order book nearly doubled from FY19 to Rs 5.8 lakh crore in FY25, supported by hydrocarbons, green energy, and power projects. Analysts project the order book to grow to Rs 8.9 lakh crore by FY28.

    For FY26, management aims to achieve an order pipeline of Rs 19 lakh crore—a 57% growth over FY25—supported by new opportunities in the Middle East, where L&T has seen a steady stream of orders, and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) regions. Analysts expect L&T’s revenue and net profit to grow by 13.5% and 20.4%, over FY26–28.

    R. Shankar Raman, CFO, notes, “Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait are key international markets for L&T in terms of order inflow. In FY25, we secured 25% of international orders from the Saudi Arabian market, driven by higher capital expenditures from the governments of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.” He also mentions that for FY26, they aim to achieve 60% of international revenue, up from 50%.

    5. SRF:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating on this specialty chemical company with a target price of Rs 3,700, a 14.7% upside. Analysts Sumant Kumar and Meet Jain note that the company plans to incur capital expenditure (capex) of Rs 2,200–2,300 crore to expand its chemical production capacity, launch three new fluoropolymers, and increase packaging film capacity at its Indore facility.

    Management expects strong performance in FY26, helped by a healthy order book in specialty chemicals, rising exports, and higher polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) sales in the fluorochemicals segment. The speciality chemicals business delivered an 18% CAGR in revenue over the past decade, and management projects 20% growth in FY26, driven by the ramp-up of newly commissioned facilities.

    Analysts expect SRF's packaging business to benefit from the temporary closure of Jindal Poly’s manufacturing facility in Nashik following a fire outbreak, as well as the increased supply gap in the industry and the ramp-up of its aluminium foil capacity. They estimate SRF’s revenue and net profit to grow by 12% and 16%, respectively, over FY26–27.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    11 Jul 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 11, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 11, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Nuvama Wealth Management:

    Thiscapital markets company plunged 11.2% on July 4 after SEBIbarred US-based Jane Street from trading in Indian markets and seized Rs 4,843 crore over alleged manipulation in index derivatives. Jane Street, a major institutional client of Nuvama, was accused of inflating index prices near markets close to profit from options. While Nuvama was not named in SEBI’s order, the company was reportedly the broker executing Jane Street’s trades. According to analysts, this raised fears that the brokerage could lose asignificant (~40%) share of its institutional trading volumes.

    However, Jane Street reportedly contributed onlyabout 7% to Nuvama’s FY25 revenue. The capital markets segment (institutional equities and investment banking) contributed 26% of total revenue in FY25.

    InFY25, the company’s revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 4.4% and 1.5% respectively. Net profit surged 57.7% to Rs 986 crore, driven by 32% revenue growth, lower cost, and strong performance across wealth, asset, and investment services.

    NWML’s total assets under management (AUM)grew 24% to Rs 4.3 lakh crore in FY25. This growth was supported by strong client inflows in its wealth management business and expansion in its team of relationship managers. Ashish Kehair, MD & CEO,said, “The company targets a net increase of Rs 23,000–24,000 crore in AUM from fresh client inflows in FY26.”

    On July 5, the company rose 3.3% onreports that Private equity firms CVC Capital Partners, Permira, and EQT are in advanced talks with PAG to acquire its controlling 54.8% stake in Nuvama in a deal potentially valued at $1.6 billion.

    Motilal Oswalhas a ‘Buy’ rating, citing strong FY25 results, robust private wealth and capital markets growth, and expects an CAGR of 18% in revenue and 19% in net profit over FY25-27.

    2. Syrma SGS Technology:

    This electrical products company saw its stock hit a 52-week high of Rs 685 on July 11 following the announcement of plans to invest Rs 1,800 crore in a new electronics components manufacturing facility in Andhra Pradesh. In January, the company signed a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with South Korea's Shinhyup Electronics to establish a joint venture for this project.

    Since March, Syrma has been in discussions with the Andhra Pradesh government's Economic Development Board (EDB) for land and financial incentives for its new facility. Syrma SGS is also applying for the Government of India's Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for electronics manufacturing. The new plant is set to start operations by FY27.

    For FY25, the company reported a 19.4% increase in revenue and a significant 58.3% jump in net profit, largely driven by growth in the automotive and industrial sectors. Trendlyne Forecaster projects a 4% MoM revenue growth for the first quarter of FY26, attributing it to the company's focus on higher-margin segments and operational leverage. The stock has also appeared on a screener of stocks that are overbought according to the Money Flow Index (MFI).

    J.S. Gujral, the Managing Director of Syrma SGS, expressed confidence in the company's future, stating, "We expect an EBITDA above 8% and revenue growth of 30–35% in FY26." He acknowledged that the export target of Rs 1,000 crore for FY25 was missed by about Rs 200 crore due to tariff uncertainties and a sluggish economic environment in the European Union. However, based on customer guidance, he anticipates that exports will exceed the Rs 1,000 crore mark in FY26.

    JP Morgan has identified India’s electronic manufacturing services (EMS) sector as a "sunrise sector" and expects Syrma to be the third-fastest growing company within its EMS coverage. The brokerage forecasts the EMS space to deliver 32% compound annual revenue growth over FY26–30, supported by increasing electronics content in products and the government's ‘Make in India’ initiative. Consequently, JP Morgan has initiated coverage on Syrma with an 'Overweight' rating and a target price of Rs 800.

    3. Kotak Mahindra Bank:

    This banking firm’s shares surged 4.4% over the past week following a quarterly business update for Q1 FY26. The bank reported 14% YoY growth in loans and a 14.6% increase in total deposits. Macquarie Research said, “These are better than our expectations and also better than private peers.” Low-cost CASA deposits from current and savings accounts now contribute 41% to the total deposits, a slight decrease from the previous quarter. 

    Higher CASA deposits, and faster repricing of term deposits boosted the bank's net interest margin (NIM) to 4.97% in Q4. However, analysts expect NIMs to come under pressure starting Q1, following the recent RBI rate cut. This is because around 60% of Kotak’s loan book is linked to external benchmarks such as the repo rate. Analysts at Macquarie forecast a 15 bps margin decline in Q1 on a QoQ basis.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects a 7% YoY revenue growth in the first quarter, although it expects higher provisions to eat into the net profit by 3%. As of March 2025, unsecured retail loans made up 10% of the bank's total loans, a slight decrease from the previous year. MD & CEO Ashok Vaswani highlights the bank’s efforts in Q4 “to bring down the retail microfinance book by 33% YoY.”

    Deputy MD Shanti Ekambaram says “The bank will continue to focus on mortgages as it helps retain affluent customers.” During the Q4 earnings call, she highlighted that this approach has led to a rise in value per customer over the past two quarters. House loans and loans against property account for 27% of the total loan book.

    BOB Capital maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the bank with a higher target price of 2,520, which suggests a 13% upside. Analysts highlight Kotak’s healthy credit growth, led by secured loan segments, and high CASA deposits as key drivers of growth.

    4. JSW Infrastructure:

    This port operator rose over 2% on July 8 after announcing the win of a Rs 740 crore port infrastructure project from the Syama Prasad Mookerjee Port Authority. The project includes rebuilding one berth and upgrading two other berths at the Netaji Subhas Dock in Kolkata. This initiative aims to boost the port’s ability to handle container cargo.

    The project supports JSW Infra’s broader strategy to expand its port network under the government’s push to increase the private sector’s role in running and improving ports. The company also mentioned it could begin partial operations even while construction is underway, thanks to steady cargo volumes at the Kolkata port.

    In FY25, the company reported a 9% increase in cargo handled. It now plans to more than double its port capacity to 400 million tonnes per year by FY30. To support this plan, it has allocated a capex of Rs 30,000 crore for port development and an additional Rs 9,000 crore for logistics.

    The company entered the logistics business in FY25 by acquiring a 70% stake in NAVKAR, a rail-linked logistics company, for around Rs 1,000 crore. This deal gave JSW Infra access to important logistics facilities, such as container stations, depots, and licenses to operate freight trains. The logistics division accounted for roughly 10% of JSW Infra's total revenue in FY25.

    Rinkesh Roy, MD & CEO, said, “We are eyeing sizable revenue and profit contributions from our logistics business. We expect logistics revenue to grow by 50% in FY26.” He also said that earnings growth will be supported by the logistics segment and high-margin locations like Fujairah, which earns an EBITDA margin of about 85%. The company expects over 10% cargo volume growth each year until FY28, with higher growth likely only after new capacity becomes operational. 

    Motilal Oswal has a ‘Buy’ rating on JSW Infrastructure with a target price of Rs 370. The brokerage expects the company to benefit from India’s infrastructure expansion and rising demand from third-party cargo clients, despite global challenges. A strong rise in logistics revenue is also expected to help performance, with revenue and profit expected to grow at over 22% annually during FY26–27.

    5. Vedanta:

    Thismining company fell 8% on July 9 aftershort-seller Viceroy Research released a report flagging financial irregularities at its parent firm, Vedanta Resources (VRL), saying it “resembles a Ponzi scheme.” The report mentioned that the entire group structure is “financially unsustainable, operationally compromised, and poses a severe, under-appreciated risk to creditors.”

    It notes that VRL is systematically draining Vedanta to repay its debts and is pressuring Vedanta to borrow more, thereby weakening Vedanta’s financial position.

    The report also cautioned that the entire group is close to going bankrupt and is only staying afloat by constantly borrowing more money, using complicated accounting tricks, and delaying large, hidden payments it owes.

    The Viceroy report said that Vedanta Resources is a "parasite" holding company with no significant operations of its own. It states that VRL’s interest and principal obligations are funded entirely through dividends and “brand fees” extracted from Vedanta, neither of which is sustainable.

    While Viceroy sounds alarm bells, JP Morgan remains optimistic. In a freshnote, it dismissed Viceroy Research’s claims and said it is “not getting distracted” by the report. JP Morgan says that the allegations are a distraction and that Vedanta’s core fundamentals remain strong. The brokerage maintains an “overweight” rating on Vedanta.

    The Viceroy report comes as Vedanta plans to split into five separate listed entities by September 2025. Group Chairman Anil Agarwal launched the plan in 2023 to overhaul the business following an unsuccessfulattempt to take Vedanta private in 2020.

    The company’s net profit rose 253.5% to Rs 14,988 crore in FY25. Revenue grew 7% driven by higher commodity prices and a lower tax rate.

    Since FY22, Vedanta Resources has reduced its debt by 44% to $5 billion. Ajay Goel, Group CFO, notes, “We aim to achieve an investment-grade credit rating and strengthen our financial position. We plan to reduce debt to $3 billion by FY27 through dividends and brand fees from Vedanta, without placing additional strain on the operating company.”

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    10 Jul 2025
    Five winners from analysts: Stocks set to start FY26 with a bang | Screener: Stocks analysts are most bullish on

    Five winners from analysts: Stocks set to start FY26 with a bang | Screener: Stocks analysts are most bullish on

    By Tejas MD

    We are in the week right before the first quarter results of FY26, when hopes are not yet dashed and anything is possible. The market has been stuck in neutral, awaiting early signals on results and the India-US trade deal.

    The deal has been stuck in the "it's almost there" stage for a while now. President Trump said that the India-US trade deal is “close” on July 7, even as the deadline for new tariffs quietly shifted from July 9 to August 1.

    The Indian government has also sent mixed signals. Over the past week, the media quoted anonymous government sources promising a trade deal signing “within 48 hours”, “by 10 pm tonight” and so on. But then Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal confused everyone when he said, “India does not negotiate under deadlines”. 

    The earnings outlook is looking mixed as well. Analysts predictthatNifty 50 companies will post single-digit YoY net profit growth for the first time in nine quarters. 

    But it’s not all gloom and doom. The market is increasingly favouring the selective investor. Some companies in the pharma, telecom, and banking sectors are expected to deliver double-digit profit growth.

    So which stocks are analysts bullish on this Q1?

    In this week’s Analytics,

    • Growth mode on: Five companies to watch this quarter
    • Screener: Stocks with strong bullish forecasts and high upside potential


    Five potential winners from analysts

    As we head into the Q1FY26 results, we shortlist five stocks from the Nifty 500 that are predicted to post high revenue and net profit growth YoY and QoQ in Q1FY26, according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. These companies have already set the bar high with strong results in Q4FY25.

    Five stocks across industries have strong revenue and profit forecasts

    All five stocks, Multi Commodity Exchange, Bharti Airtel, Firstsource Solutions, Lupin and Endurance Technologies, are from different sectors. 

    Only Lupin has underperformed the benchmark index in the past quarter. But over a longer timeframe, all five stocks have outperformed the index by a good margin. 

    Four out of five stocks have at least doubled in the past two years

    These stocks have either ‘Good’ or ‘Medium’ scores across the Durability, Valuation, and Momentum categories. Bharti Airtel stands out with especially high scores and a DVM classification of ‘Strong Performer’. Good Durability and Valuation scores signal that these stocks may be financially strong, undervalued picks. 

    Stocks in focus have good Durability scores with strong fundamentals

    These stocks also benefit from the industries they are in. Pharma, telecom and software are all expected to deliver good results.

    Pharma is gaining from strong US generics sales, new specialty launches, and easing price pressures. Software has been seeing stable deal flows and improved cost control, both good for margins. Telecom has seen recent tariff hikes and steady subscriber growth.

    Trading boost: MCX grows thanks to precious metals, energy, and new launches

    This commodity derivatives exchange holds a near-monopoly in India’s market, with a share of around 98%. 

    The company’s growth engine is its bullion (gold and silver), and energy futures & options. These segments are driving volumes amid rising global volatility. 

    New product launches set to lift MCX’s revenue in Q1FY26

    New product launches such as monthly-expiry gold and silver options, upcoming electricity derivatives, and planned weekly crude futures, are diversifying revenue streams and boosting trading volumes. 

    Praveena Rai, CEO of MCX is bullish about electricity derivatives, saying, “We see significant growth in this space. There is reasonable volatility. There is interest from market participants. And there is also a need for this because India is a huge market when it comes to power.”

    With more participants entering the market, MCX looks well-placed for growth, according to analysts. But increased spending on tech has hit margins in recent quarters. In Q4FY25, total expenses jumped 64% YoY due to higher tech spending. Staff costs also surged 50% YoY, which weighed on margins.

    Growth in high doses: US traction, new launches boost Lupin’s outlook

    Analysts expect this pharmaplayer’s net profit to jump 58.7% YoY in Q1FY26. Complex generics and specialty drugs, which are high-margin segments with low competition, are projected to boost net profit.

    US business is expected to remain the key growth driver, on the back of new launches in complex generics and specialty drugs, including Tolvaptan. In Q4FY25, the US business grew 19% YoY, compared to a 6.9% growth in the domestic market. 

    Lupin banks on complex generics and specialty drugs to fuel growth

    Nilesh Gupta, Lupin’s MD, commented on Lupin's shift in focus, “In FY25, complex generics contribute about 30% of our revenues. Over the next five years, this will account for 49% of revenues. The growth drivers for the business remain new product launches (NPLs), and we have more than 100 NPLs.”

    As global demand for complex generics and biosimilars rises, Lupin is positioning itself to ride this tailwind.

    Strong signals: 5G and broadband gains lift Airtel’s outlook

    Airtel is expected to build on its momentum in FY26 with another strong set of results. The aggressive 4G-to-5G transition, combined with its industry-leading average revenue per user (ARPU) of Rs 245, is set to drive growth. 

    The company has focused on expanding its high-speed network, customer additions and increasing tariffs is boosting growth in its mobile services segment. 

    Gopal Vittal, Airtel’s MD, noted, “Most of the customers who we acquire come via family plans. That means three, two, three, or four family members. They tend to be on different operators, so aggregating them onto our family plans becomes a very important driver of our growth.”

    Fast lane to growth: Airtel rides 5G wave and tariff hikes

    Industry trends, such as the surge in broadband users and the rapid shift to 5G, provide a favourable environment for Airtel's sustained growth.

    Higher gear: EV focus, new orders accelerate Endurance Tech’s growth

    Endurance Technologies has been a key player in the auto component industry in India and Europe, supplying aluminium castings, suspensions, transmissions, braking systems, and battery management systems.

    Its revenue driver is India’s two and three-wheeler segments, supported by new model launches. A growing focus on EV components, combined with the upcoming ABS mandate for two-wheelers, effective from January 2026, is expected to drive growth this FY.

    EV order wins and two-wheeler demand power Endurance Tech’s revenue growth

    Endurance's expansion into the four-wheeler segment, both in India and Europe, is also contributing to the topline. In Europe, it secured €12.4 million in new orders, including major deals from Volkswagen and BMW in the hybrid segment.

    However, tariff escalations continue to be a concern for the company’s export business. 

    Europe's slowing growth is another issue. Massimo Venuti, CEO of Endurance Overseas, said, “In Q4FY25, new car registrations in the European Union dropped by 1.9% YoY, and production of new light vehicles in Europe is expected to decline by over 2% in the 2025 calendar year.”

    Digital edge: AI, 'un-BPO' strategy to boost Firstsource

    This BPO company is on track to post YoY revenue growth for the tenth straight quarter, driven by its “UnBPO” transformation—a shift from traditional outsourcing to a tech-led, 'digital-first' business model.

    The company secured five major deals in Q4, four of which were valued at over $10 million. North America remains a major market for the company, accounting for over 67% of its revenue. 

    BFSI and healthcare to drive Firstsource’s 10th straight YoY revenue gain

    Growth is led by the healthcare, BFSI, and media-tech verticals, with strong traction in GenAI services, claims processing, and digital intake. 

    Regarding deal wins in Q4, Ritesh Idnani, Firstsource’s CEO, said, “We won our largest deal in healthcare this quarter from one of the mid-market health plans in North America. This is also a new logo for us. This is a five-year business process as a service deal for us, with an annual contract value of well over $50 million in steady state”. 


    Screener: Stocks with strong bullish forecasts and high upside potential

    Banks have the highest bullish forecasts and high target upside

    As we approach the Q1FY26 results season, we examine stocks with the highest number of bullish estimates. This screener shows stocks with a high number of bullish forecasts from institutional analysts, and the highest Forecaster estimates 12-month target price upside %.

    The screener includes stocks from banks, cars & utility vehicles, cement & cement products, IT consulting & software, and pharmaceutical industries. 

    Major stocks that appear in the screener are ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, and Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals. 

    HDFC Bank has 38 bullish forecast estimates, with a Forecaster 12-month target price upside of 10.2%. Analysts at Geojit BNP Paribas believe that the bank is well-positioned to capitalise on improving liquidity, strong capital foundation, and enhanced tech capabilities to drive loan growth. They also expect HDFC Bank’s margins to expand, led by favourable asset composition, an improved borrowing mix and lower funding costs. Analysts expect the lender’s net interest income (NII) and net profit CAGR of 7.8% and 7.7% over FY26-27, respectively.

    Mahindra & Mahindra also features in the screener with 35 bullish forecast estimates and Forecaster 12-month target upside of 13%. According to BOB Capital Markets, this cars & utility vehicles company’s automotive and farm equipment sector (FES) segments will grow on the back of healthy monsoons and a strong launch pipeline. The brokerage expects a revenue and net profit CAGR of 13.1% and 17% over FY26-27.

    You can find some popular screeners here.


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    The Baseline
    09 Jul 2025

    All in the family: Bajaj, Murugappa, Mahindra & Tata Group stocks outpace the benchmark 

    By Omkar Chitnis

    'Keiretsu' is a Japanese business structure that describes a network of companies that hold stakes in one another while maintaining close business ties. 

    Family-owned Indian conglomerates, such as the powerhouses Tata, Bajaj, Mahindra and the Murugappa Group, benefit from such a model: they operate across various sectors, cross-sell and share resources within their family companies. These interconnections have provided stability and supported long-term value creation over the past decades. Family businesses like these contribute to 79% of the country’s GDP, according to HSBC Global Private Banking report.

    N Chandrasekaran, Chairman of Tata Sons, sums up this advantage, saying, “The most important thing is what I call ‘group leverage’—the ability of individual operating companies to leverage each other’s strengths and work together to create a force multiplier for the entire group.”

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyse family-owned stocks that have outperformed the index over the past year. Four family group companies appear frequently in this screener, including Murugappa, Mahindra, Tata and Bajaj. 

    Bajaj Group stocks outperform the index on strong AUM growth

    The Bajaj Group has 12 listed companies with a total market value of Rs 8.6 lakh crore, spanning the two- and three-wheeler, finance, housing finance, holding companies, household appliance, and personal products segments. 

    Among these, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Housing Finance and Maharashtra Scooters outperformed the Nifty 50 by 22.9 percentage points, 25.1 percentage points, 67.6 percentage points and 48.3 percentage points, respectively. 

    Bajaj Group’s financial stocks jumped the most over the past year. Bajaj Finserv, the flagship financial services holding company of the group, rose 27.8% in the same period. 

    Bajaj Finserv’s revenue grew 21.2% during FY25 on the back of improvements in annual premium equivalent (APE) and value of new business (VNB). The company’s health insurance business also improved, driven by higher premiums from the motor and retail health insurance segments.

    Bajaj Finance, the lending arm of the Bajaj Group and a subsidiary of Bajaj Finserv, rose by 30% in the same period. Bajaj Finance’s subsidiary, Bajaj Housing Finance, was listed on the bourses in September 2024 and has jumped 72.5% in the past year. 

    Bajaj Finance’s FY25 revenue and net profit increased by 26.8% and 15.1%, respectively. An improvement in assets under management (AUM), net interest income (NII), customer acquisition, and the addition of new locations throughout the year led to a rise in revenue. 

    The company’s Vice Chairman, Rajeev Jain, said, “FY25 was a good year for the company in terms of volumes, AUM growth, customer acquisition, operating efficiency, and pre-provisioning profit. The company booked a record 18.8 million loans and expanded its customer franchise.”

    Maharashtra Scooters (MSL) was the scooter segment of the Bajaj Group before transitioning into a core investment company (CIC) after Bajaj Auto took over scooter manufacturing operations. It has risen 53.2% over the last year. MSL operates as an unregistered CIC, meaning at least 90% of its assets are invested in Bajaj Group entities. As a CIC, the company’s value is directly linked to the performance and dividends of these investments. 

    Murugappa Group stocks gain from strong fertiliser demand

    TheMurugappa Group operates businesses in agriculture,engineering, andfinancial services industries, with nine listed companies. Some of its businesses hold stakes in other group companies, creating cross-holdings that influence profits and business growth. 

    Out of the nine listed stocks of the Murugappa Group, four have outperformed the benchmark index over the past year. Cholamandalam Financial Holdings (CFHL), EID Parry, Coromandel International,andCholamandalam Investment and Finance Company (CIFCL) outperformed it by 37.2, 37.4, 33.7, and 1.3 percentage points, respectively.

    Cholamandalam Financial Holdings (CFHL) is the core investment arm of the Murugappa Group. Over the past year, its shares have risen by 42.2%, supported by the strong performance of its key subsidiary, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company (CIFCL). CFHL holds a 44.3% stake in CIFCL, which allows it to earn regular dividends and benefit directly from CIFCL’s growth.

    In FY25, CIFCL’s revenue grew 35% to Rs 25,845.9 crore, and its profit increased 24.6%, supported by higher vehicle finance disbursements and improved net interest income.

    Ravindra Kundu, MD, said, “We expect disbursements in the vehicle financing segment to grow by 17% in FY26, helped by better performance and capacity utilisation in the small commercial vehicle and light commercial vehicle segments."

    In agri-business, EID Parryowns a 56.1% stake in Coromandel International. This helps Coromandel save costs by using by-products from EID Parry’s sugar factories and lets EID Parry sell its products through Coromandel’s retail stores. 

    EID Parry’s shares surged 42.3% over the past year, supported by government policies on biofuels and diversification into consumer segments. Meanwhile, Coromandel International, which operates in the farm inputs sector, also outperformed, with shares rising 38.6% over the past year, helped by strong fertiliser demand and government subsidies. 

    Mahindra Group stocks rise on expansion plans

    Mahindra Group has companies across industries, including cars & utility vehicles, IT consulting & software, auto parts & equipment, and financial services, among others. 

    Three stocks from the group outperformed the benchmark index, with Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Tech Mahindra, and Swaraj Engines outperforming the index by 4.7, 7, and 40.2 percentage points, respectively.

    M&M is the flagship of the Mahindra group, manufacturing electric vehicles, sports utility vehicles, commercial vehicles, and farm equipment. The company is also a majority stakeholder (52% stake) in Swaraj Engines, which manufactures tractor engines for M&M’s Swaraj division (tractor segment). 

    Tech Mahindra is the IT consulting & software arm of the conglomerate and provides tech support and digital capabilities to Mahindra Group companies alongside a global client base. 

    M&M rose 9.6% over the past year, led by revenue and net profit growing 14.3% and 14.7%, respectively, in FY25. Improvements in sales of cars, tractors, electric three-wheelers, and commercial vehicles helped revenue growth. 

    Swaraj Engines is up 45.2% over the past year, after an 18.5% growth in revenue and a 20.4% increase in net profit in FY25. An increase in demand from the tractors division of M&M, which accounts for 90% of Swaraj Engines' total revenue, contributed to revenue growth. 

    Tech Mahindra’s stock price rose by 11.8% in the last year, supported by its net profit jumping by 80.3% during FY25. Lower employee benefits and sales expenses, along with higher margins due to Project Fortius (Tech Mahindra's three-year plan, launched in April 2024, aimed at achieving a 15% operating margin by FY27), contributed to improved profitability.

    Tata Group stocks rise on business expansion and cross-company support

    Tata Group’s 26 listed companies span across steel, automobiles, IT products, FMCG, and hospitality, with a combined market value of Rs 31.1 lakh crore. Each Tata group company collaborates with others in the group.  

    For instance, Tata Consultancy Services handles IT services for group companies, Indian Hotels purchases vehicles from Tata Motors, Tata Power supplies power to the group’s factories, and Tata Steel supplies steel to Tata Projects for construction activities.

    Over the past year, only two of the 26 listed companies have outperformed the Nifty 50 index. Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) and Titan Company by 15.4 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively.

    The Indian Hotels Company (IHCL), operator of the Taj, Vivanta, and Ginger brands, has seen its share price rise by 20.3% over the past year, driven by 80% occupancy and new hotel openings.

    The company plans to invest Rs 5,000 crore over the next five years to double its hotel count to 700 hotels by FY30, up from its current 381 hotels. Since 2017, it has increased its capital-light inventory model from 26% to 43% in FY24 by reducing dependence on its owned assets. This shift has helped expand its footprint and improve profit margins by 6.8 percentage points over the past three years. 

    Titan Company, known for its watches, saw its share price gain 5.2% over the past year. The company, which began in 1984 as a watch manufacturer with Titan Watches, has since expanded into jewellery, eyewear, fashion accessories, and the ethnic wear segment. In FY25, the Jewellery business contributed 88.6% of its total revenue, while watches and wearables accounted for 7.7%

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