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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    22 Nov 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 22, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 22, 2024

    1. Hindalco Industries:

    This aluminum products manufacturer has gained 4% over the past week, driven by a surge in aluminum prices. The increase follows China’s proposal to reduce or eliminate export tax rebates on commodities like copper and aluminum starting December 1. This announcement pushed London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices up by 8% to $2,730 per tonne on November 18.

    The Chinese decision seeks to address the oversupply of Chinese aluminum in global markets, a long-standing issue that has caused trade tensions with the US and Europe. Analysts believe it will reduce China’s exports, tighten global supply, and boost prices, benefiting Indian aluminum companies like Hindalco, Vedanta, and National Aluminium Company (NALCO).

    Hindalco posted a 78% YoY increase in net profit to Rs 3,909 crore in Q2FY25, supported by lower power, fuel, and finance costs. Revenue rose 8.5% YoY to Rs 59,278 crore, driven by growth in Novelis, and the upstream, downstream aluminum, and copper segments. Novelis, Hindalco’s US-based subsidiary, reported Q2FY25 revenue of $4.3 billion, with EBITDA at $462 million (-5% YoY). The EBITDA decline was attributed to rising aluminum scrap prices and a loss of $25 million from flood damage at its Sierre, Switzerland plant.

    Hindalco is focusing on Indian upstream projects, including aluminum and copper smelters and an alumina refinery, with a total capex of $4-5 billion over the next 3 to 3.5 years. MD Satish Pai said, "The company will fund this capex through a combination of internal cash and debt, raising $1-1.5 billion over three years. Our capex guidance for this year stands at Rs 6,000 crore, and for next year, we expect it to be around Rs 8,000 crore."

    Post results, Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Hindalco with a target price of Rs 780, indicating a potential upside of 19.6%. The brokerage believes that the ongoing capex in Novelis is expected to position Hindalco as a global leader in the beverage cans and automotive flat rolled products (FRP) segments. However, the cost of production in the aluminum business may rise due to higher coal e-auction premiums and increasing scrap prices, potentially impacting margins in the short term.

    2. PI Industries:

    This agrochemicals company has declined by 3.5% over the past week following the announcement of its Q2FY25 earnings on November 13. PI Industries' revenue grew by 4.9% to Rs 2,221 crore during the quarter, helped by an improvement in the custom synthesis and manufacturing (CSM) segment. However, revenue missed Forecaster estimates by 3.5%. Meanwhile, net profit grew by 5.8% YoY to Rs 508.2 crore, and EBITDA margins were up 220 bps YoY to 28.3%, led by a favourable product mix.

    The company’s domestic and pharma businesses continued to witness subdued demand during the quarter. The management highlighted that delayed and erratic rainfall and pricing pressures on inventories weighed on Kharif seed demand and market sentiment. The pharma business was impacted due to the slow offtake of some of its products. However, the company expects volumes to pick up in H2 and targets revenue of Rs 250-270 crore from the pharma business in FY25. PI Industries’ export segment (which contributes over 78% to the revenue) witnessed healthy growth, with its revenue increasing by 8% YoY during the quarter.

    Going forward, the company expects lower, single-digit (~7-9%) revenue growth for FY25 compared to its earlier guidance of around 15%. Speaking on this, Mayank Singhal, the Managing Director of the company, said, “The global crop protection industry faces challenges due to volatility in agricultural markets, fluctuating commodity prices, destocking trends, pricing pressures, rising inflation, and delayed purchase decisions. Considering the current global industry scenario, we have re-aligned our overall outlook.”

    Following the company’s results, Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on PI Industries with a target price of Rs 5,200. The brokerage has a positive outlook on the company, driven by consistent growth momentum in the CSM business, product launches in the domestic market (six to seven new launches in FY25), and ramping up of the pharma API and CDMO segments.

    3. Britannia Industries:

    This packaged foods company declined by over 2% on 21st November as the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) issued a notice to the company regarding the use of a preservative in a batch of one of its products and prohibited its sale. 

    The company had announced its Q2FY25 result on 11th November. Its net profit declined by 9.5% YoY on the back of rise in raw material and employee expenses, while its revenue rose 5.1% YoY. The company missed the Trendlyne Forecaster estimates for net profit by 11.6% and revenue by 1.6%. It appears in a screener of stocks which are categorised as Expensive Performers  according to DVM scores.

    Q2FY25 was a lacklustre quarter for the company due to weak demand and high food inflation numbers, specially for items like cereals (6.9%), vegetables (42.2%), and refined edible oils (35.7%). The company’s rural market however showed mid to high single digit revenue growth, but the urban market including modern trade and e-commerce delivered slower growth as compared to previous quarters. The FMCG market slowdown was significant in urban metros – it contributed 75% of the overall sector slowdown. The FMCG sector grew by just 4.1% in volume during the September quarter, down from 7.2% during the same period last year. Heavy monsoon rains worsened the slowdown, especially for out-of-home consumption. 

    Varun Berry, vice chairman and managing director of the company, highlighted the company's plans to implement a 4-5% price hike in select SKUs over the next two quarters to combat raw material cost pressures. On price hikes Berry added, “We are very vigilant about competitive pricing actions because we understand that as market leaders, we need to take the lead. However, we do not want to be uncompetitive, and that is something we are keeping an eye on.” He also noted that Britannia has seen a rise in rural distribution where its number of distributors are now over 30,000 and its focus states are performing better. The company has an estimated 33% market share in India's organised biscuits market.. 

    KR Choksey has retained an ‘Accumulate’ rating on Britannia with a target price of Rs 5,601. The brokerage has lowered its FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates by 11.5% and 6.1%, respectively, due to higher-than-expected raw material and employee cost, weaker-than-expected Q2FY25 and heightened competition. However, it also highlights the company’s cost optimization and growth in emerging channels. It expects Revenue, EBITDA, Adj. PAT to grow at CAGR 6.2%, 8.4%, 9.3%, respectively, over FY25-26.

    4. Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL):

    This gas distribution company's shares fell by 23% this week following the government's announcement of a 20% reduction in APM (Administered Price Mechanism) gas allocation. APM is a system designed to regulate prices of essential commodities like petroleum and natural gas in India. The latest reduction, effective November 16, 2024, follows an earlier 21% cut in allocation implemented on October 16.

    GAIL, the nodal agency for domestic gas distribution, has curtailed IGL's supply, which directly impacts its operations in retailing CNG for vehicles and piped cooking gas for households in Delhi and nearby cities. 

    Company Secretary and Compliance Officer Vivek Sahay said, “GAIL has further reduced IGL's gas supply and this reduction is expected to negatively impact the company's profitability." Domestic gas, priced at a government-regulated $6.5 per MMBtu, is significantly cheaper than imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). As of Q1FY25, the raw material composition for IGL consisted of 62% APM gas and 38% RLNG. The reduced allocation forces IGL to rely more on costly imported LNG, driving up input costs. With gas costs forming a substantial part of CNG pricing, this shift is likely to compress IGL's profit margins.

    Looking ahead, the management says that it is focused on balancing supply costs and sustaining profitability. To address the challenge of reduced APM gas allocation which is expected to negatively impact profitability, the company is pursuing long-term contracts to procure gas at prices closer to APM rates. 

    Price hikes for CNG and cooking gas are also expected in the near future. If successful, this approach could help restore margins to previous levels and mitigate the adverse effects of reduced domestic gas supply.

    Trendlyne classifies this stock as a value stock, under radar. Macquarie has upgraded IGL from 'Neutral' to 'Outperform'. However, they have reduced the price target from Rs 480 to Rs 400, which implies a potential upside of 27.9%.

    5. Century Plyboards (India):

    Thisplyboard manufacturer fell by 22.4% over the past month and 6.1% on November 13 after announcing itsQ2FY25 results. Its net profit missedForecaster estimates by 41.9% as it declined 58.7% YoY to Rs 40 crore in Q2FY25. However, its revenue increased 18.7% YoY to Rs 1,183.6 crore, driven by strong volume growth in the plywood and Medium Density Fibre Board (MDF) segments during the quarter.

    The sharp drop in the net profit wasdue to a 25.8% YoY surge in total expenditure, driven by higher raw material costs, especially timber prices which have been rising due to shortages in South India. Additional drivers included a Rs 13 crore forex loss from imported machinery for a new panel plant and increased marketing expenses in the Laminates segment to regain market share and support the new Andhra Pradesh facility.

    During the quarter, the Plywood and Allied Products segment grew 20.9% YoY to Rs 665.2 crore, accounting for 54.5% of the total revenue. Commenting on this segment Sanjay Agarwal, MD and CEO of the companysaid, “We have revised our guidelines for H2 at 12% plus sales growth and EBITDA margins between 12% and 14%”. The company had earlier given a sales guidance of 10% for FY25.

    The management alsoexpects over 10% margins in the MDF segment, which grew 36.4% YoY to Rs 268.4 crore contributing 23.9% of the total revenue, this rise was supported by the new facility in Andhra Pradesh. Agarwal also mentioned that the company aims to achieve market share between 13% to 14% from 8% currently.

    Following the results, BOB Capital Marketsmaintained a ‘Hold’ rating on Century Plyboards with a target price of Rs 725. The brokerage anticipates the company’s EPS to grow at a 14.8% CAGR over FY25-27, with expected CAGRs of 17.6% for revenue and 34.3% for EBITDA during the same period.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    19 Nov 2024
    India’s IPO market struggles in the ongoing stock market correction

    India’s IPO market struggles in the ongoing stock market correction

    By Aditi Priya

    India has seen the highest number of IPOs among Asian countries this year. In the past six months, 46 companies have collectively raised over Rs 97,000 crore via the mainboard IPO route, according to Trendlyne’s IPO dashboard. 

    However, the IPO buzz in India seems to be fading. A performance check of IPOs shows that the listing and post-listing performance in the second half of 2024 has fallen compared to 2023 and the first half of 2024. In the case of IPOs like Hyundai Motors, retail and non-institutional subscription levels have declined, reflecting reduced investor enthusiasm. 

    Moreover, quite a few of the mainboard IPOs (about 42%) of the ongoing quarter have listed at a discount. The average listing gains of the IPOs during this quarter is slightly over 16% compared to average listing gains of 33.8% last quarter. The tepid IPO market appears to be caused by various factors ranging from valuations to market sentiments. 

    Large issue-size IPOs struggle perform post-listing

    On October 15, India saw its biggest IPO ever, with Hyundai Motors India raising Rs 27,870 crore. The world's third-largest automotive original equipment manufacturer (OEM), made its market debut at a 7.2% discount to the issue price. Analysts believe that there were two reasons behind this dull response. First, this was a 100% Offer for Sale (OFS) by the parent company, which did not sit well with retail investors since no fresh funds were being infused into the business. Second, the upper price band for the IPO was set at Rs 1,960, implying a valuation of 26 times the projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY24 and approximately 30 times EPS for FY25, which exceeds the auto industry average P/E ratio of 24x. Market-changing technology is rare in the auto sector, which limits aggressive growth forecasts

    Swiggy's Rs 11,327 crore listing was another highlight, becoming the second-biggest IPO of the year. The food delivery giant made its market debut with a 16.9% premium, but has fallen since listing and is currently trading at a premium of 7.8% over its issue price. The profit booking by investors looking for IPO gains and a high valuation gap (at the time of listing) have contributed to this decline. Additionally, the company has struggled with consistent net losses since its inception. For the fiscal year ending March 31, Swiggy reported a loss of Rs 2,350.24 crore, a reduction from Rs 4,179.30 crore in FY23 and Rs 3,628.89 crore in FY22.

    Cement and construction companies suffer the biggest losses post-listing

    Cement and construction companies, Afcons Infrastructure, Deepak Builders & Engineers and Garuda Construction and Engineering also launched their IPOs this quarter. However, the performance of these listings has been largely disappointing. 

    Deepak Builders & Engineers made its market debut at a 20.2% discount. The poor performance of the IPO can be attributed to a cautious market outlook. In contrast, Garuda Construction & Engineering and Afcons Infrastructure had a more promising start, debuting at a 12.5% premium and 2.4% premium, respectively. However, Garuda’s stock is currently trading at a discount of 12.8%. Despite a strong order book and a diversified project portfolio, Garuda's performance is vulnerable to the cyclical nature of the construction industry and ongoing market volatility, which likely impacted its stock value.

    KRN Heat Exchanger and Waaree Energies are the best-performing IPOs of the ongoing quarter

    Among all the IPOs launched this quarter, KRN Heat Exchangers and Refrigeration and  Waaree Energies stand out for delivering positive returns. The commercial services company got listed at an impressive 117% premium and is currently trading at a premium of 238%. Whereas, Waaree energies, a consumer durables company made a strong debut, listing at a premium of 55.6% and currently trading at an impressive 96.6% premium to its issue price. 

    Waaree is also expanding its global reach by setting up a 3 GW manufacturing facility in the United States to cater to rising international demand for solar energy. In FY24, the company reported the second-highest operating income among domestic solar PV module manufacturers in India. Waaree also reported a 69% year-on-year revenue increase, reaching Rs 11,398 crore, while its profit after tax more than doubled to Rs 1,274 crore. 

    The recent downturn in India's IPO market is part of a broader trend affecting the equity markets. Both the Sensex and Nifty have entered a correction phase, with declines exceeding 10% from their recent highs. This decline has been driven by  continued selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and muted macro numbers. In November alone, FIIs withdrew Rs 22,420.3 crore, contributing to a total outflow of Rs 1.2 lakh crore since Nifty peaked in September. Additionally, rising US bond yields, weak corporate earnings, and ongoing global economic uncertainties have further soured market sentiment.

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    The Baseline
    19 Nov 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 19, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 19, 2024

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    A defensive sector - healthcare - dominates this week’s analyst picks, with three out of five stocks from this space. 

    1. Healthcare Global Enterprises:

    ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this hospital operator with a target price of Rs 600, indicating an upside of 28.3%. Healthcare Global Enterprises (HCG) specializes in establishing and managing hospitals and medical diagnostic services, focusing on advanced cancer treatments. In Q2FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 14% YoY to Rs 553 crore, supported by a 15% rise in its hospitals business. The average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) stood at Rs 45,188, marking a 7% increase.

    HCG’s EBITDA margins stood at 17.3%. The company’s management anticipates margins to gradually improve to around 20% by Q4FY25, supported by higher occupancy rates and an improved payee mix. Analysts Siddhant Khandekar, Shubh Mehta, and Vedant Nilekar highlight that rising margins at new centres and the integration of Vizag Hospital, which holds over 30% market share in Vizag, will drive growth.

    The company is developing two advanced hospitals in North Bangalore and Whitefield, with a combined capacity of 125 beds, expected to be fully operational by early FY26. It plans to expand its total bed capacity to 900 within three years. The analysts project a revenue CAGR of 6.8% and a net profit CAGR of 15.1% for FY25-26.

    2. DOMS Industries:

    Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this stationary products company with a target price of Rs 3,120. This indicates a potential upside of 14.4%. Analysts Preeyam Tolia and Suhanee Shome are positive about the company's growth, highlighting its efforts to diversify its product range. DOMS is expanding into the larger pens category, moving beyond its focus on small pencils, and entering fast-growing sectors like bags, toys, and diapers.

    DOMS has recently acquired a 51.8% stake in Unilcan Healthcare for Rs 55 crore, which makes baby diapers and wet wipes under the ‘Wowper’ brand. The diaper market, valued at $2 billion, is expected to grow to $3 billion in the coming years. The company's distribution network is expected to expand Unilcan’s reach across India, increasing market penetration beyond its current 12-state presence.

    In Q2FY25, the company’s revenue grew by 19.7% YoY to 458 crore, driven by higher average selling prices, expanded distribution, and the integration of the Unilcan portfolio, which added Rs 14.3 crore (3% of sales) over 15 days. Its distribution reached 135,000 outlets, up from 125,000 in Q1FY25, a 10,000-outlet increase. 

    For FY25, the management expects revenue growth of over 20% and EBITDA margins of 17-17.5%, down from 18.8% in Q2, due to higher costs of polymers, waxes, and the integration of the lower-margin Unilcan acquisition.

    3. Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences:

    Edelweiss reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this healthcare facilities company with a target price of Rs 630, indicating a potential upside of 11.1%. The company reported a 19% YoY revenue growth to Rs 777.3 crore in Q2FY25, exceeding the Trendlyne Forecaster estimates by 4.8%. Net profit rose by 19% to Rs 121 crore, while EBITDA margins improved by 89 bps to 28.1%. Analysts Ranvir Singh and Pawan Bhatia said “The margins are expected to remain stable for H2FY25, with the ramp-up of newly launched units likely to drive further improvements."

    Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS) has expanded its operations with the launch of its Nashik unit (325 beds) and the newly acquired Queen’s NRI Hospital in Vizag (300 beds) during Q2, increasing its total bed capacity to 4,610. Additionally, the company signed operations and management (O&M) agreements with two hospitals, Kannur (200 beds) and Guntur (200 beds), set to begin operations in Q3FY25. With these O&M hospitals, KIMS' total bed capacity is projected to reach ~5,000 in FY25, up from 3,975 in FY24.

    Singh and Bhatia are optimistic about the upcoming projects in Thane, Bangalore, Srikakulam, and Ongole, expected to commence operations in H2. They note that a 22% YoY growth in average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) during H1 indicates the potential for better-than-expected ARPOB performance for the full year.

    4. Archean Chemical Industries:

    KR Choksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this chemical firm with a target price of Rs 890. This indicates an upside of 31.3%. Archean Chemical Industries’ (ACI) revenue fell 17% YoY in Q2FY25 due to a 19% drop in the industrial salt segment, which accounted for 62% of total sales. The decline was mainly caused by inventory losses worth Rs 40 crore due to a cyclone. Poor road conditions also disrupted logistics, reducing export volumes to 7.5 lakh tonnes, as ACI depends on over 300 trucks for salt transportation.

    The company’s bromine business, however, grew 11% YoY in Q2FY25, with volumes rising to 4,800 MT from 3,400 MT in Q2FY24, supported by steady domestic demand. Analyst Dipak Saha highlights that ACI’s growing bromine derivatives business could help shift its focus from basic commodities to more value-added specialty products, offsetting weaknesses in its core operations.

    ACI targets over 10 lakh tonnes of industrial salt per quarter in H2FY25, recovering from disruptions in H1. The company’s management also aims to produce 20,000 tonnes of bromine in FY25, driven by strong domestic demand and better market conditions, with plans to increase production to 25,000 tonnes in FY26.

    5. Jupiter Life Line Hospitals:

    Anand Rathi initiates its ‘Buy’ rating on this hospital chain with a target price of Rs 1,740, indicating an upside of 16.8%. The company reported a 9% YoY rise in average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) during H1FY25, led by ARPOB at Rs 66,700, Rs 55,000, and Rs 44,700 for its Thane, Pune, and Indore units, respectively. Analysts Himanshu Binani and Rohan Shukla mention “The recent insurance rate revisions at the Pune hospital and new insurance tie-ups at the Indore facility should further enhance ARPOB and occupancy rates.”

    In Q2FY25, Jupiter Lifeline Hospitals reported a 23% YoY increase in revenue to Rs 322.6 crore and a 53% rise in net profit. The results were in-line with the brokerage’s expectations, with revenue surpassing Trendlyne Forecaster estimates by 5.2%, though net profit missed by 1.5%. The growth was driven by higher occupancy across hospitals. Binani and Shukla project 14% revenue and 21% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-27, supported by increasing occupancy at Pune and Indore hospitals.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    15 Nov 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 15, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 15, 2024

    1. Indian Hotels Company:

    This hotels chain has risen by 8.3% over the past week following the announcement of its Q2FY25 earnings on November 7. Indian Hotels’ net profit surged by 3.3x YoY to Rs 554.6 crore in Q2FY25, mainly due to an exceptional gain of Rs 307 crore from the incorporation of Taj SATS as a subsidiary of the company. Taj SATS is a joint venture (JV) between Indian Hotels and Singapore Airport Terminal Services (SATS) specialising in airline and institutional catering. IHCL holds a 51% stake in the JV. 

    Revenue increased by 27.6% YoY to Rs 1,890.2 crore, driven by improvements in the hoteliering and air & institutional catering segments. Revenue beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 8.6%, and was higher than the industry growth of 10.2%. EBITDA margins expanded by 270 basis points to 27.5%. During the quarter, growth was fueled by strong demand, which had slowed in Q1, due to elections and heatwaves. Additional wedding dates also boosted performance.

    The company’s revenue per available room (RevPAR) for Q2FY25 grew by 12% YoY to Rs 7,200, outperforming its industry and competition with a premium of 66%. Occupancy stood at 71% during the quarter, much higher compared to the industry’s 61%. 

    Indian Hotels signed 23 and opened six hotels in Q2FY25; it targets to open 25 new hotels in FY25. Presently, the company's portfolio of hotels stands at 232 operational hotels with 118 new hotels in the pipeline. Going forward, the company targets double-digit revenue growth for FY25. Commenting on this, Puneet Chhatwal, the CEO of the company said, “During the first half, which is the weaker half, we've already achieved 11% YoY revenue growth and hope to deliver on the double-digit promise on a much higher base going forward in Q3 and Q4. With 30% higher wedding dates and an increase in foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) expected in H2, we remain confident of comfortably delivering double-digit revenue growth”.

    Axis Direct has a ‘Buy’ rating on Indian Hotels with a target price of Rs 800. The brokerage believes the increase in FTAs is expected to positively impact ARRs (the company’s average room rate stood at Rs 10,100 during Q2). It has a positive outlook for the overall industry as the steady growth in the Indian middle class and their increased spending power is projected to contribute an additional Rs 5,200 crore annually to the hospitality market.

    2. Eicher Motors:

    This motorcycle producer surged 6.4% on Thursday following the announcement of its Q2 results. Eicher reported a 5.2% YoY revenue growth at Rs 4,617 crore, with net profit increasing by 8.3% YoY to Rs 1,100 crore. Both revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 3.8% and 1.5% respectively.

    In the first half of this fiscal year, Royal Enfield’s market share in the premium segment (greater than 250cc motorcycles) dropped to 7.5% from 8.2% a year ago as the sales volumes came in flat at 4.5 lakh motorcycles. In a bid to gain market share, the company announced its plans to enter into the EV segment with its new sub brand - The Flying Flea.

    Meanwhile, Eicher’s joint venture with Volvo, VECV, has the highest market share in the Light & medium duty (LMD) segment at 36.4%, and contributes over 10% to Eicher Motors’ net profit. VECV saw its market share on a consolidated basis rise from 15.9% a year ago to 18.9%, thanks to volume growth of 6.3%. The LMD buses outperformed other segments, with volume growth of 22.3% YoY in Q2FY25.

    Commenting on the outlook, MD & CEO of Eicher Motors, Siddhartha Lal, said, “The first half has not been so good for the industry because of low government spending on capex and uneven monsoon, but we expect a better second half.” This optimism is reflected in the October sales volume, where the company sold over 1.1 lakh motorcycles, 30% higher than its monthly average of around 80,000.

    Jefferiesmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock as they expect Royal Enfield to be a key beneficiary of the two-wheeler premiumisation trend. They believe that the toughest phase of competition for Eicher Motors is over, as volumes show signs of growth. With a target price of Rs 5,500, the stock has a potential upside of 12.6%. 

    3. Asian Paints:

    This paints company fell by over 12% in the past week. The company declared an underwhelming Q2FY25 result on 9th November. Its net profit fell by 42.4% to Rs 694.6 crore on the back of a rise in cost of raw material, while its revenue fell by 5.1%. The firm missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 6.3% and net profit by 36.8%. The stock appears in a screener for stocks with PE higher than the Industry PE.

    Q2FY25 was weaker than expected for the company due to sustained sluggish demand. The company’s domestic business took a hit as its decorative and home decor segment (which constitutes over 88% of net revenue) saw a 6.7% YoY revenue decline mainly on the back of the price cuts taken last year, and weak consumer sentiment due to heavy rains & floods. The company’s international business remained flat due to currency devaluation in Ethiopia and political unrest in Bangladesh. However, the Middle East and Sri Lanka markets showed strong growth. To counter inflation, the company implemented a price increase of around 1.2% in Q2FY25, but expects to see its full impact in H2FY25.

    Amit Syngle, MD & CEO of the company, noted the weaker performance in metro towns, larger cities, and the B2B market, where Asian Paints holds a 15-20% share. The industrial segment however, performed well. He remains cautious about demand recovery in Q3FY25 due to challenges in urban markets but is optimistic that stronger rural demand and infrastructure spending will drive growth in the second half of the year. Syngle also added, “Our expansion continues strongly, with more retailers opening in urban suburbs and newer towns. We now have nearly 1.67 lakh retail touchpoints, reflecting a robust market footprint.” On FY25 guidance he said, “For H1, we've ended up at about 18.5% EBITDA margin. So we are still within our previously mentioned overall guidance range of 18-20% for FY25. “

    KR Choksey has retained a ‘Hold’ rating on Asian Paints with a target price of Rs 2,566. The brokerage has lowered its FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates by 9.1% and 14.2%, respectively, due to a miss in Q2FY25 estimates and margin pressures from increased competitive intensity. However, it highlights that despite higher costs and margin contraction, the company's focus on innovation, rural demand, and infrastructure spending offers hope for a recovery in the second half of FY25.

    4. Alkem Laboratories:

    This pharma company rose by 1.2% on November 13 after announcing its Q2FY25 results. The company’s net profit grew 11% YoY to Rs 688.6 crore in Q2FY25, driven by inventory destocking, beating Trendlyne Forecaster estimates by 2.8%. However, revenue decreased marginally to Rs 3,414.7 crore due to lower US sales. The company appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding in the last quarter.

    The Q2 revenue was hit by a drop in international sales, which fell by 12.9% YoY to Rs 920 crore. US sales, which contribute 17.7% to total revenue, declined by 25% to Rs 570 crore due to limited new launches, price erosion, and volume decline in existing products. Sales from other international markets, including Latin America, Australia, and Europe, made up 9.5% of total sales. India sales grew by 5.7% YoY, reaching Rs 2,461 crore.

    In H1FY25, the company launched two products and received eight ANDA approvals, bringing the total number of ANDAs filed to 178, with 152 final approvals to date. Alkem has also started operations at its contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) plant in the US, which is expected to drive growth in the medium term. Additionally, it has completed phase 3 clinical trials for the Denosumab drug in the US, which has a global market size of $3.3 billion and is expected to reach $5.1 billion by FY28.

    Speaking after the results, the company’s CEO, Vikas Gupta, said “We have tackled our past supply challenges by improving inventory levels, bringing back orders in the US down from 38% to just 2%. These improvements position us well for stronger US performance in H2.” He also expects mid-single-digit growth in overall revenue and aims for a 100 basis point improvement in margins, targeting around 18.5-19.5% for FY25.

    Post results, Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Neutral’ rating on Alkem with a target price of Rs 5,720, indicating an upside of 3.5%. The brokerage notes that Alkem is refocusing its US generics business by reducing low-margin products and concentrating on products with less competition. Additionally, it is gearing up for CDMO opportunities, expanding its biotech manufacturing capabilities starting from Q4FY25 to Q1FY26.

    5. Relaxo Footwears:

    Thisfootwear manufacturer has fallen 12.9% over the past week following the announcement of itsQ2FY25 results on November 8. Relaxo Footwears net profit has declined 16.9% YoY to Rs 36.7 crore, missing Forecaster estimates by 14.4%. Revenue decreased 5%YoY to Rs 679.4 crore during the quarter.

    The drop in revenue was largely due to weak demand in both general and modern trade channels. In general trade, distributors faced high inventory levels, while Relaxo intentionally reduced e-commerce sales to counter excessive discounting from platforms like Flipkart and Amazon.

    Chairman and Managing Director Ramesh Kumar Dua,said, “During the quarter, the industry witnessed an increase in lower priced, unorganised competition, which led to downtrading by consumers in a high inflation environment.” He also mentioned that the company chose not to lower prices or margins to unsustainable levels, which helped maintain operating margins during the quarter. However, higher depreciation costs impacted the company's net profit.

    Instead of e-commerce sales, the company is expanding its distributor network across the country to improve its retail network. It is strengthening ties with retailers through the "Relaxo Parivaar" app, which serves over 70,000 outlets. For FY25, the company has allocated Rs 100 crore for capex, primarily for molds and machinery, with no plans for new capacity additions this year.

    Looking ahead, the management is anticipating flat volume growth overall for FY25, with a target of 8-10% growth in the Sparx product line. Sparx is a budget footwear line that offers closed footwear at competitive prices, generally lower than competitors. This focus on closed footwear continues to drive its momentum and distribution.

    Post results, Yes Securitiesmaintained its ’Sell’ rating with a target price of Rs 636. The brokerage projects a 4% volume growth CAGR from FY25-27, as the company aims to regain market share. It also expects a 3% annual increase in average selling price during this period due to a better product mix. Margins are expected to return to 14% by FY27. Overall, revenue, EBITDA, and net profit are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 7%, 7%, and 10%, respectively, over FY25-27.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    15 Nov 2024
    Superstar investors turn cautious, shuffle their portfolios | Screener: Stocks in the PE buy zone with high target price upsides

    Superstar investors turn cautious, shuffle their portfolios | Screener: Stocks in the PE buy zone with high target price upsides

    By Tejas MD

    Indian equity markets initially celebrated Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential race, rising 1.1% on Nov 6—only to take a sharp U-turn the next day, falling 1.2% as investors took a closer look at his policy plans, which include aggressive tariffs on imports.  Trump in his first term was a temperamental head of state, and he has already complained about India's trade policies: "India is very big with tariffs". Investors are in wait and watch mode this time around.

    Indian markets have been moody since September 26. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) kicked off a historical selling spree, dragging indices downward. Amid the turbulence, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have emerged as the market’s backbone, stepping in with record-breaking purchases and mitigating the slide.

    But, there are still worrying signs. Inflation has been simmering since July, and may have now boiled over.

    In October, India’s CPI inflation rose 6.21%, surpassing the expected 5.8% due to high food inflation. 

    Indian superstar investors were wary of rising markets and soaring valuations in Q1FY25. And in hindsight, they may have made the right decision. The same caution is visible in Q2, as these investors slowed the pace of investments and sold considerably more than they bought. 

    Which hidden gems did superstar investors bet on? And which sectors are they worried about? 

    In this week’s Analyticks,

    • Superstar investors get picky in their investments
    • Screener: Stocks in the PE buy zone with high durability scores and price upsides

    Let’s dive in.


    Superstar investors shuffle their portfolios, trim stakes

    Superstar investors made strategic portfolio changes in Q2FY25, with selling activity once again outpacing buying.

    Many top superstar investors saw their net worth decline (as of November 11), as recent shareholding data for Q2FY25 came in. The drop is from volatility in key holdings, and strategic selling across multiple companies. 

    Notably, the net worth of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Associates (now managed by Rare Enterprises), Ashish Kacholia, and Dolly Khanna fell by over 10% as of Nov 11.

    Major superstar investors see net worth fall in Q3 after major sells

    Vijay Kedia stands out with a 9.4% net worth increase, driven by strong gains in his top holdings—Tejas Networks and Neuland Laboratories—which rose over 20% in the past month. 

    Dolly Khanna’s portfolio suffered the largest decline, falling 22.3%, as she reduced her stake in several companies, and with her top holding, Chennai Petroleum Corp, experiencing a 31% drop.

    Rare Enterprises also saw its portfolio fall, primarily due to stake reductions. Of the 27 stocks in the portfolio, 17 saw a reduction, with Tata Motors and Baazar Style Retail being the only ones where Jhunjhunwala's stake increased.

    Stocks sold by superstar investors outnumber the new buys

    Overall, superstar investors appear cautious, showing restraint in both new acquisitions and increasing stakes in existing holdings. Top investors trimmed stakes in 91 companies while adding to just 37. 

    Ace investor Sunil Singhania, for instance, refrained from buying new stocks or increasing his stake in any company, instead reducing holdings in 13 out of 22 companies.

    New stakes: Superstars pick financially strong and newly listed companies

    Two major themes come to light when looking into the buy list of superstars – strong financials and newly listed companies. 

    Barring E2E Networks and ASM Technologies, all other companies’ Trendlyne Durability score is in the ‘Good’ category. A high Durability score indicates consistently good financial performance: stable revenues, profits, cash flows and low debt. Newly listed companies that don’t have durability scores are not included in this list.

    Superstar investors are buying rising stocks with good financial health

    20 Microns and POCL Enterprises top the list with a durability score of 90. When overall DVM scores are considered, POCL Enterprises and Emkay Global Financial Services come out on top as they score a ‘Good’ rating across all three metrics, making them both ‘Strong Performers’. Interestingly, these three top-scoring stocks were added by Dolly Khanna to her portfolio in Q2. 

    Even the big investors got sucked into the IPO frenzy in Q2 

    One major theme among the buys is superstar investors picking newly listed companies, as the IPO frenzy continues in India, especially the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) segment. 

    Out of 19 new buys, six are newly listed companies. Only Baazar Style and Stanley Lifestyles were Main Line IPOs among these six newly listed stocks. 

    All six companies listed in the green, with TAC Infosech’s listing gains at 187.3%. But here’s the kicker - four out of these six companies have fallen in the past quarter, with TBI Corn declining 32.7%. Volatility in the market has affected newly listed companies as well. 

    Superstar investors’ new buys in IPOs lag in the past quarter after listing above issue price

    The top performer here is Vijay Kedia’s SME stock, TAC Infosec. This software and services company has risen 47.2% in the volatile past quarter. 

    A focus on performance: Superstar investors sell overvalued, underperforming small and mid-caps

    A major theme across the sell list by superstars is that these stocks are either in the sell zone (trading higher than their historical PEs) or are underperforming the Nifty 50 in the past quarter. 

    Only three companies among the 19 sells are in the PE buy zone - Arvind Fashions (Sold by Akash Bhanshali), Mitsu Chem Plast (sold by Porinju Veliyath) and Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (sold by Dolly Khanna). 

    Most stocks sold by superstar investors trade in PE Sell Zone

    Interestingly, all stocks sold were small or mid-cap companies. In addition, half of the stocks sold have underperformed the benchmark index in the past quarter. 

    Textiles sector dominates the superstar sell list 

    Textiles apparel & accessories and commercial services & supplies sectors dominate the sell list, followed by chemicals & petrochemicals.

    The sells list also includes a loss-making company (negative net profit TTM) - Deepak Spinners. 

    Vijay Kedia’s 2020 bet Tejas Networks stands out 

    When we look at long-term bets by these superstars, Vijay Kedia’s Tejas Networks and Mukul Agrawal's Neuland Labs come out on top. Tejas Networks and Neuland Labs contribute 2.5% and 7.9% of their portfolios respectively. 

    Best performing long-term holdings: Kedia’s Tejas Networks, Mukul Agrawal's Neuland Labs


    Interestingly, high-performing Neuland Labs is Kedia’s third-largest holding as well, leading to a sharp rise in Kedia’s portfolio over the past two years.

    Bhanshali’s Gujarat Fluorochemicals (32% of total holding value) and Khanna’s Chennai Petroleum Corp (22% of total holding value) on the other hand, are lagging since they bought these stocks. However, Bhanshali's net worth has almost tripled in the past two years due to high performance in their other holdings and fresh buys in new stocks. 


    Screener: Stocks in the PE buy zone with high durability scores and target price upsides

    Auto stocks have the highest Forecaster target price upside

    In the current volatile market environment, where the Nifty 50 has fallen 3.4% over the past month, we look at stocks in the buy zone with strong durability and high target price upside. This screener shows technically strong stocks with high durability scores and target price upside.

    Stocks from the automobile & auto components, FMCG, software & services, and cement & construction sectors appear in the screener. The most noticeable stocks in the screener are Signatureglobal (India), Tata Motors, Emami, EIH, Motherson Sumi Wiring India, 3M India, ACC, and Quess Corp.

    Tata Motors has one of the highest Forecaster target price upsides, of 38.6% over the next 12 months. But the stock has declined by 27.6% over the past quarter due to lower retail sales. This cars & utility vehicles company has a good Trendlyne Durability score of 85 and a Piotroski score of 8, indicating still healthy financials. ICICI Direct believes that the company’s healthy margins, return ratios, and low leverage on the balance sheet will help in long-term growth.

    Emami also features in the screener with a Forecaster target price upside of 26.6% over the next 12 months. This personal products company also has a good Trendlyne Durability score of 80 and a Piotroski score of 9. Anand Rathi expects the company’s growth trajectory to continue on the back of a niche product portfolio, leading market position, recovery in rural sales (50-55% of total revenue), improvement in distribution, direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands, and digital ventures. Emami has also struggled in the volatile market, and its price has fallen 17.3% over the past quarter, underperforming the FMCG sector by 8.2 percentage points.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    14 Nov 2024

    Major countries shift right in 2024 elections

    By Aditi Priya

    Elections took place this year in countries representing nearly half of the world’s population. From Taiwan’s January general election to the US presidential race in November, these pivotal votes came amid climate change, inflation, and global economic and geopolitical tensions. Key issues shaping the political landscape include the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts in the Middle East, and trade friction between the US and China, the two largest economies.

    In 2024, there has been a noticeable rise in far-right parties. Right-wing governments often emphasize traditional values, reduced government regulation, and lower immigration. This year saw numerous countries undergo political changes, with new leaders or governments adopting these ideologies. These shifts suggest the rise of policies that challenge the existing global political order.

    Modi and Trump’s wins reflect rising rightward movements in India and the US

    Narendra Modi’s win in the June election secured his third term as Prime Minister, extending the BJP's leadership, but with a smaller majority. The continuity is expected to shape India's economic policies, and its approach to global issues, including climate change and trade. Donald Trump’s recent victory in the US elections highlights that this trend of populist, right-wing leaders winning elections is a global one. These leaders and their parties capitalize on frustrations among working-class voters, particularly of global trade threatening their jobs, and rising immigration. The ongoing cost of living crisis as inflation drove up the price of groceries, also contributed to rising support for far-right movements. Trump's stance on immigration was a central theme in his campaigns, and he has promised that mass deportations will start as soon as he takes office. He’s also committed to ending birthright citizenship, and expanding travel bans.

    According to Mohit Kumar, chief economist at Jefferies, immigration has become a particularly potent election issue in large Western economies grappling with aging populations and labor shortages. The increase in immigration from regions like Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East has helped fill job vacancies, but created a fertile ground for nationalist, populist movements.

    Moody's ratings indicate that India stands to benefit from these shifts in power. The agency highlights that with Trump at the helm, escalating US-China tensions and potential investment restrictions in critical sectors could lead to a redirection of trade and investment. “In the Asia-Pacific, heightened US scrutiny in strategic sectors may prompt a move away from China, potentially weakening its economy and regional growth. In contrast, countries like India and ASEAN nations could gain new opportunities in this evolving landscape,” Moody's stated.

    The European Union which includes countries like Hungary, Slovakia, France, Germany, Austria and Netherlands have also seen right-wing populist parties make strong gains or come to power in recent elections. This shift doesn’t seem to stem directly from factors like high immigration rates or poor economic conditions, but rather from broader geopolitical instability. European voters appear increasingly drawn to alternative approaches, signaling a desire for change.

    Some nations shift left amid global changes

    While voters in most major economies shifted to the right, there are a few countries that moved left. Left-wing governments advocate for greater social and economic equality, often supporting socially liberal ideas and representing socialist or progressive movements.

    The United Kingdom also held elections this year, resulting in a victory for the center-left Labour Party after 14 years of Conservative rule. The UK has experienced several years of turbulence, some caused under the Conservative government and some by external factors, that have left many voters feeling pessimistic about the nation's future. The UK's exit from the European Union, followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, severely impacted the economy.

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    The Baseline
    13 Nov 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 13, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 13, 2024

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. CCL Products India:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this tea & coffee company with a target price of Rs 820, indicating an upside potential of 17.6%. In Q2FY25 its net profit grew 21.5% YoY to Rs 74 crore beating Forecaster estimates by 6.3%, while its revenue rose 21.4% to Rs 738.7 crore, driven by  approximately 10% volume growth during the quarter. 

    Analysts Preeyam Tolia and Suhanee Shome note that the domestic business generated Rs 105 crore, with Rs 70 crore from the branded segment; the company aims for Rs 300 crore in branded sales by FY25. Analysts also mention that the company is expanding beyond Southern India into new markets. The Vietnam plant is set to start freeze-dried coffee production by Q3FY25, with high initial utilization, while the Indian plant will begin operations within a month, targeting 30% utilization in year one, 60% in year two, and 80% thereafter.

    Tolia and Shome highlight the company’s steady performance despite fluctuations in coffee prices. They project a net sales CAGR of 21.5% and EBITDA growth of 29.9% for FY25-27, considering the impact of higher coffee prices, increased depreciation, and rising interest costs.

    2. KEC International:

    Sharekhan retains its ‘Buy’ rating on KEC International with a target price of Rs 1,100, indicating an upside of 13.9%. This heavy electrical equipment company reported a net profit growth of 53% YoY to Rs 85.4 crore in Q2FY25, helped by reduced erection & subcontracting and finance costs, while its revenue increased 13.4% YoY to Rs 5,119.9 crore during the quarter.

    Analysts note that the company’s year-to-date order intake jumped 50% YoY to Rs 13,482 crore, mainly from Rs 9,000 crore in Transmission & Distribution (T&D) and Rs 1,350 crore in Railways. Management expects 20% growth in the T&D segment for FY25, supported by faster execution while the Civil segment anticipates 30% growth on a Rs 10,000 crore order backlog. KEC's new aluminum conductor plant, set to start dispatches in November, is expected to enhance competitiveness in T&D.

    Analysts are optimistic about the company’s growth, given its strong order book of around Rs 42,500 crore (including L1). The brokerage forecasts a 16% revenue growth over FY25-27, along with steady margin improvement.

    3. Blue Jet Healthcare:

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceuticals company with a target price of Rs 600, indicating a potential upside of 15.8%. Blue Jet Healthcare reported revenue growth of 16.2% YoY to Rs 220.3 crore in Q2FY25, outperforming Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 10.8%.

    Analysts Sanjesh Jain and Mohit Mishra say, “Rise in revenue was partly impacted by rising goods-in-transit. But this was offset by the strong ramp-up in cardiovascular molecule supplies to innovators.”

    Analysts notes that the contrast media segment fell 11.1% YoY, due to longer European delivery times. However, Blue Jet expects growth in this area by CY25. The company recently started producing a new molecule (product) with an 80 kilolitres (KL) capacity, with invoicing starting in the fourth quarter of FY25. The pharma intermediates (PI)/ active pharmaceuticals ingredients (APIs) segment grew 172.1% YoY, supported by a new facility at Ambernath, and is on track for peak utilization by FY25 end.

    Jain and Mishra expect the company to grow revenue sharply with a good new product pipeline, and expect stable margins over the next two years. They project EBITDA growth of 31.2% in FY25 and 29.9% in FY26.

    4. Endurance Technologies:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on Endurance Technologies with a target price of Rs 2,825, indicating an upside potential of 17.8%. This auto parts and equipment manufacturer reported a net profit growth of 31.3% YoY to Rs 203 crore in Q2FY25. Revenue rose 14.8% to Rs 2.939.2 crore during the quarter. According to Trendlyne’s DVM scores it's a strong performer that is getting expensive.

    Analysts Aniket Mhatre, Amber Shukla and Aniket Desai highlight that the company’s European business also performed well, with revenue increasing by 6.4% YoY to €66.9 million (approximately Rs 600.8 crore). Analysts note order wins in the first half of FY25 totaled Rs 310 crore. Expansion plans include a new alloy wheel plant with a 4.5 million unit capacity, set to launch by September 2025, which will help Endurance increase its two-wheeler (2W) alloy wheel market share to 25%. Management also aims to increase its share of the four-wheeler business from 25% to 45% by FY30. 

    Mhatre, Shukla, and Desai estimate a CAGR of approximately 14% in revenue, 17% in EBITDA, and 24% in PAT for FY25-27, driven by a recovery in key industries, including the domestic 2W and European PV sectors.

    5. Blue Star:

    BOB Capital Markets maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this consumer electronics company with a target price of Rs 2,100, indicating a potential upside of 19.3%. Blue Star’s net profit rose 36.1% YoY to Rs 96.2 crore in Q2FY25. Revenue increased 20.6% YoY to Rs 2,294.5 crore during the quarter. Analyst Arshia Khosla highlights strong performance of the room air conditioner (RAC) segment in H1FY25, RAC volumes grew 53%. The company holds a 13.75% market share in RACs, with 50% of sales through modern retail formats.

    The company is making progress in the commercial AC market, with a Rs 5,000 crore order book, fueled by sectors like data centers and commercial real estate. Blue Star is also expanding internationally, with successful shipments to the US, despite challenges in water cooler production and slowdowns in the European market.

    Khosla expects a CAGR of 19% in revenue and 30% in earnings from FY25-27, driven by strong performance in the electro-mechanical projects (EMP) and unitary cooling products (UCP) segments, cost-saving initiatives, and enhanced operating efficiency.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)




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    The Baseline
    09 Nov 2024
    Multibaggers dominate in a few sectors | Screener: Stocks which have held on to massive gains in a volatile market

    Multibaggers dominate in a few sectors | Screener: Stocks which have held on to massive gains in a volatile market

    What a difference a day makes. On November 4, the US presidential polls were a dead heat. Many experts predicted that Kamala Harris would squeak out a win, while prediction markets were betting on Trump. On election day Donald Trump swept to an easy victory, defeating Democrats even in the historic strongholds of the 'blue wall' states. 

    What does this election result mean for India? A Trump administration would be more pro-market and pro-crypto. Trump, despite claiming to be 'a friend to India', is suspicious of globalization, and has promised a universal tariff of 10% on all US imports, and retaliatory tariffs on India. 

    Still, as many are discovering today, trying to predict the future is a dangerous game. So rather than make predictions,  we look at the past and present. Past and present multibaggers, to be precise.

    In a bull market, many investor portfolios are in the green. But when markets turn volatile, some stocks are better to hanging on to their gains than others.  

    In this week's Analyticks:

    The steady ships: Companies and sectors that are holding on to their gains in a volatile market

    Screener: Multibagger stocks which are rising in the past quarter

    Let's take a closer look.


    As the multibagger count falls, which stocks are holding up? 

    While investors watch the market mood closely, the still-standing Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, has some advice: "Remember that the stock market is a manic-depressive." So amid the shifts that keep happening, we need to look for clear trendlines. 

    A useful marker of market bullishness is the number of multibaggers in the stock universe. As momentum turned positive at the end of 2023, the number of stocks with more than 100% change in share price jumped sharply, peaking in March 2024. 

    The momentum has slowed since then, although the decline has not been steep --  indices after all are still up 27% from September 2023.

    The Nifty500 index however, shows a sharper swing. Gainers had surged by the end of March, but since then  there has been a broad decline. 

    What is interesting are the stocks that have continued to surge. Currently, the big gainers in the Nifty500 are dominated by financial companies like exchanges (BSE, MCX), capital markets players (Motilal Oswal, CDSL, Nuvama Wealth), and funding agencies for the public sector (IREDA, IRFC). Manufacturing companies across industries are also upbeat - from consumer electronics players like Dixon Tech to equipment players like Kaynes Technology. In these sectors, the bullish sentiment has been consistent. 

    Capital market players  in particular, have continued to outperform the market. Companies like Motilal Oswal, BSE and others are up by double-digit percentages over the past month. A surge in IPOs and inverstor interest in stocks and mutual funds has driven the growth of demat accounts, with an average of 4 million new accounts opening every month. And despite the muted forecasts for GDP, Indian manufacturing is showing signs of a recovery, with players across verticals reporting a jump in order book volumes and a rise in demand. 

    Both trendline and sector specific movements are going to be key for investors in the coming months. While economists and analysts are seeing a slowdown in GDP growth, some sectors will stay resilient, keeping gains strong in the top performers in these segments.


    Screener: Multibagger stocks which are rising in the past quarter

    Quarter winners: Tech, consumer electronics, industrials are among the big gainers

    The Indian equity markets have seen a massive sell-off of Rs 88,267.9 crore by foreign investors in the past month, resulting in the Nifty 50 falling by 3.2% in the same period. In this volatile market, we look at multibagger stocks which have continued their growth. This screener shows multibagger stocks which are rising in the past quarter despite a volatile market.

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the software & services, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, general industrials, banking & finance, and consumer durables sectors. Most notable stocks in the screener are Trent, Oracle Financial Services Software, Dixon Technologies (India), BSE, PB Fintech, Bharti Hexacom, Kalyan Jewellers India, and Siemens. 

    Trent turns up in the screener after rising by 221.6% in the past year. This department stores company has continued this trend in recent months, rising 27.5% in the past quarter after posting positive results in Q1FY25 where its revenue and net profit grew by 54.8% YoY to Rs 4,150.4 crore and 126.3% YoY to Rs 392.6 crore, respectively. 

    The growth in stock price is further supported by new Westside and Zudio store additions in August. The company, which has fallen 5.4% over the past month, is set to release its Q2FY25 results on Thursday with Trendlyne’s Forecaster expecting its revenue and net profit to grow by 42.8% YoY and 102.2% YoY, respectively.

    Investor darling Dixon Technologies (India) has risen 173.7% in the last year. This consumer electronics company’s stock price increased by 23.9% in the past quarter, driven by strong Q2FY25 results. Its revenue grew by 133.2% YoY to Rs 11,528.4 crore on the back of an improvement in the mobile phones, electronic manufacturing services (EMS), home appliances, and lighting products segments. On the other hand, net profit increased by 263.3% YoY to Rs 389.9 crore during the quarter. The company’s stock was also added to the MSCI index on August 13. It also entered memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with HP and Asus on September 9 and September 13, respectively, to manufacture laptops.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    08 Nov 2024, 05:33PM
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 08, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 08, 2024

    1. Larsen & Toubro:

    This construction & engineering company has risen 8.3% since October 30, after reporting its Q2FY25 results on that day and the announcement this week of the acquisition of a 21% stake in E2E Networks for Rs 1,407 crore. Its net profit and revenue grew 13% YoY to Rs 703.6 crore, and 20.1% YoY to Rs 62,655.9 crore during the quarter, respectively. This helped net profit and revenue to beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 1.2% and 5.9% respectively. The company features in a screener of stocks with negative to positive growth in sales and profits with strong price momentum.

    L&T’s revenue rose owing to improvements in infrastructure projects (51.9% of revenue), energy projects (14.2% of revenue), hi-tech manufacturing (3.5% of revenue), IT & technology services (19.2% of revenue), and financial services segments (6.2% of revenue). However, the company’s order inflow fell 10% YoY to Rs 80,045 crore due to a high base and heavy monsoons. 45% of the order inflow was from domestic clients, while international clients contributed 55%. 

    In the earnings call, Larsen & Toubro’s Executive Vice President, P Ramakrishnan said, “With the current order book at Rs 1.5 lakh crore in H1FY25, we expect the order inflow to grow 10% YoY to Rs 3.3 lakh crore in FY25. This will help our group revenues to grow by 15% YoY during the fiscal year.”

    Post the acquisition in E2E Networks, Larsen & Toubro entered a partnership with the company to provide GenAI solutions in India. L&T will utilise E2E’s cloud and AI cloud platform, and its expertise in data center management.

    Post results, ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on L&T with a target price of Rs 4,262 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 16.9%. The brokerage believes the company’s order backlog growth and a pick-up in execution will help to beat its guidance for FY25. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 14.7% over FY25-26.

    2. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise: 

    Thishospital chain surged 6.6% on Thursday following theannouncement of its Q2 results. Apollo reported a 15.6% YoY growth in revenue, at Rs 5,628 crore, with a 62.6% YoY increase in net profit at Rs 379 crore. Both revenue and net profit surpassedForecaster estimates by 1.5% and 5.2%, respectively. JPMorgan has maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock as the results were in line with estimates.

    If we look at therevenue mix, the healthcare services segment, which contributes to more than half of the total revenue, saw a 13.8% YoY growth. This growth was driven by a higher occupancy rate of 73% this quarter, up from 68% last year, along with a 6% increase in average revenue per patient. The company plans to add over 1,700 beds by FY26, with another 1,800 expected in the following 3-4 years.

    Apollo HealthCo, the company’s digital health and pharmacy arm contributing over 40% of the total revenue, grew 17% YoY. This segment turned profitable this quarter, reporting a net profit of Rs 19 crore with an EBITDA margin of 2.3%. In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Managing Director Suneeta Reddy said, “Apollo HealthCo will achieve a 7-8% EBITDA margin over the next three years, following the integration of Keimed.” She also noted that this merger will be EPS accretive, enhancing profitability from the first year.

    Meanwhile, the retail health & diagnostics segment, Apollo Health & Lifestyle Ltd (AHLL), reported a Rs 4.6 crore loss this quarter. Reddyexpects AHLL to reach profitability by the end of this fiscal year. Apollo’s management indicated plans to enter the insurance business to boost overall margins. They highlighted that the license and other related formalities faced a one-quarter delay but expect it to be completed by Q3.

    Post results, Motilal Oswalmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating on Apollo Hospitals, anticipating that its hospital business and Apollo 24/7 (part of Apollo HealthCo) will drive future earnings. They forecast a CAGR of 16% in revenue and 30% in net profit over FY25-27. With a target price of Rs 8,660, the stock presents a potential upside of over 16%.

    3. ABB India:

    This heavy electrical equipment company has fallen by 5.2% over the past week following the announcement of its Q3CY24 results on November 4. ABB India’s net profit grew by 21.4% YoY to Rs 440.5 crore owing to lower raw materials and inventory costs. However, it missed Forecaster estimates by 7.8%. Meanwhile, revenue increased 5.6% YoY to Rs 3,005.1 crore. 

    During the quarter, revenue growth was driven by improvements in the robotics & motion (up 8% YoY) and electrification (11% YoY) segments. However, the process automation segment declined 12% YoY. Analysts highlighted that the company’s performance was below expectations due to lower-than-expected order inflows and execution. They note the quarter was impacted by a shift in the order book mix, with a higher share of long-gestation (to be executed in 18-24 months), large-sized orders. Large orders make up about 25% of the current order book.

    In Q3, ABB India’s order inflow stood at Rs 3,342 crore, up 11% YoY. The electrification segment contributed 53% of the total inflow driven by large orders from the data centre segment for smart power and distribution solutions divisions.

    ABB India’s order backlog as of September 30 stood at Rs 9,995 crore, an increase of 25% YoY, providing revenue visibility for the next few quarters. Commenting on this, T. Sridhar said “We are able to maintain the momentum of orders, comprising of both large as well as base orders, base orders being the maximum”.

    Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on ABB India with a target price of Rs 8,500 crore. The brokerage remains positive on ABB due to its ability to benefit from high growth segments - electrification, data centre, and motion, as well as its wide offerings and deeper penetration network. It projects the company’s revenue and PAT to grow by 15% YoY and 51% YoY, respectively in CY24.

    4. Cipla:

    This pharmaceuticals company rose by 3% over the past week as the company’s manufacturing facility in Goa received a Voluntary Action Indicated (VAI) from USFDA after a routine inspection. Analysts expect that this could speed up the company’s gAbraxane development process. 

    The drug is a chemotherapy treatment for various types of cancer. It was delayed for the past two years and in its recent commentary, the company’s management guided for a further delay till H1FY27 as it waits for further approvals.

    The company declared its Q2FY25 result on 29th October. Its net profit rose by 15.2% to Rs 1,302.5 crore on the back of decline in finance and depreciation expenses, while its revenue rose by 5.7%. The firm beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 0.2% and the net profit estimate by 7.2%. The stock appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased shareholding in the past month.

    In Q2FY25, the company’s revenue grew due to strong double-digit growth in the One Africa segment, emerging markets, and Europe. The One Africa business which includes South Africa, grew by 23.9% YoY on the back of Direct-to-Market (DTM) and Business-to-Business (B2B) categories in North Africa, and opportunistic tender wins, including vaccine tenders. However, the India segment grew by only 4.7% YoY as it witnessed slower seasonal growth.

    Analysts note that currently, only one company—Sandoz(Switzerland), in partnership with Jiangsu Hengrui of China—has launched gAbraxane in the US market, with Cipla set to be the second player. Given the lack of competition in the generic market, they see this as a significant opportunity for Cipla. As a complex oncology product, Cipla has significant moat here and it’s expected to take longer for other players to enter the market. Analysts estimate gAbraxane could represent a $600-800 million opportunity, with Cipla potentially generating $80 million in sales by FY27.

    The company’s CEO Umang Vohra said, “We are on track to achieve our margin guidance for the year, between 24.5-25.5%. The last 12 months have been audit heavy with our facilities of Invagen, Kurkumbh, Patalganga, China and Goa audited. All these facilities have been cleared with either a VAI or NAI.”On the drugs in development stage, he added, “De-risking of generic asthma drug Advair has been progressing as per expectations. We expect to launch it in H1FY26.”

    KR Choksey has retained an ‘Accumulate’ rating on Cipla with a target price of Rs 1,680. The brokerage has increased its FY26 EPS estimate to Rs 62.6 from Rs 60.6 previously. It expects the company’s top-line to grow, especially in high-growth regions like South Africa and emerging markets. The brokerage anticipates a rebound in respiratory products in domestic business and launch of generic drug Advair by H1FY26.

    5. Vedanta:

    This metals stock was flat today, fell over 1.3% in the past week, and rose 5.9% up over the quarter. The company announced better than expected Q2 results that showed a turnaround in performance, reporting a net profit of Rs 5,603 crore for the September quarter as against a loss of Rs 915 crore in the quarter last year. Both the aluminium and oil businesses beat expectations, helping its overall net profit beat estimates by 79%. Weak zinc prices had hurt the business the previous year, 

    Vedanta’s numbers were also helped by lower taxes -  taxes fell to Rs 2,030 crore this quarter, from Rs 9,092 crore in the same quarter last year. Net debt came down as well, falling by around Rs 4,400 crore QoQ to Rs 56,927 crore. This brings its Net Debt/EBITDA ratio to 1.49x, the best level in six quarters. 

    Arun Mishra, the Executive Director of Vedanta, noted that this quarter delivered "our highest-ever first-half EBITDA of Rs 20,639 crore, with 46% growth YoY.” He said that he expected the rest of the year to be strong as well. “We believe the second half numbers will show a further ramp up, as major new projects come online." The cyclical metal business is right now in Vedanta's favour, with both aluminium and zinc prices up globally by double digits in the quarter.

    The consensus from analysts on the stock is a buy.  In a separate press release, the company said that the proposed demerger of its businesses (where it will split its major businesses of zinc, oil, aluminium, power, steel and base metals into six separate listed entities) is on track. The demerger was expected to be completed by the end of FY25. However, the latest press note has mentioned no specific timeline or end date.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    05 Nov 2024

    Chart of the Week: Banks & AMCs beat analyst forecasts in Q2, while OMCs & pharma disappoint

    By Satyam Kumar

    Who doesn’t enjoy surprises? The word makes us think of something pleasing and unexpected. However, when viewed through the lens of an analyst with specific forecasts about a company’s performance, surprises can be negative too, as we’ll explore in this article. 

    If you check the quarterly reports of analysts, available here, it typically begins with an assessment of whether the firm exceeded or missed estimates for revenue, net profit, margins, and other key metrics in their results. These beats and misses significantly impact the company’s share price. In this week’s chart of the week, we’ll look at Trendlyne’s Analyst Estimates dashboard to review companies that either beat or missed forecasted estimates for Q2 FY25.

    Banks shine in Q2, wealth management & related firms outperform

    Most banks reported strong results in Q2, with firms like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank exceeding analyst expectations for revenue and net profit. Improved asset quality and sustained loan growth boosted earnings; deposits however, remain a concern, impacting profitability. Changing savings preferences have driven customers away from deposit accounts, as more and more people buy into the idea of “Mutual Funds sahi hai.” 

    Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks like the Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank, and Union Bank of India outperformed estimates by significant margins. Many PSU banks currently offer strong valuations, with Trendlyne Valuation Scores above 70. This trend aligns with Nifty PSU Bank—an index of 12 government banks—trading at a discount of over 15% from its 52-week high.

    On the contrary, Kotak Mahindra Bank missed its consensus estimates due to higher slippages (bad debt), particularly in the credit card and microfinance segments, impacted by macroeconomic stress and borrower overleveraging. In response to this, traders and investors led Kotak’s share price down by over 4% on the result announcement day, October 21. The RBI's ban on digital customer onboarding by Kotak due to a tech embargo has also slowed growth, especially in new credit cards. A positive development for the bank, however, was the significant growth in deposits, driven by the relaunch of ActivMoney, an alternative to fixed deposits.

    All asset management companies, including HDFC AMC, Nippon Life India, UTI AMC, and Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, surpassed estimates by wide margins, reflecting increased investor confidence in India’s long-term economic growth. Other firms, like CDSL, MCX, and KFIN Technologies, also reported strong results, benefiting from similar trends.

    Consumer electronics, realty and general industrials were a mixed-bag

    The past few years have been favourable for consumer electronics manufacturers in India. Demand continues to rise, driven by rapid advancements in technology, such as the shift from 3G to 4G to 5G and the emergence of generative AI. On the supply side, the government has introduced policies to incentivize local manufacturing of electronic goods, supporting industry growth. 

    Rising disposable incomes have also blurred the line between essential and discretionary products. What was once considered a luxury is now viewed as a norm. Companies like Dixon Technologies and Amber Enterprises exceeded revenue and net profit estimates by significant margins. In contrast, Voltas missed estimates slightly during a seasonally weak quarter, as much of its revenue relies on air-conditioner sales.

    The real estate sector experienced a mixed performance, with both upbeat and downbeat results. DLF, Godrej Properties, and Prestige Estates Projects reported positive Q2 results, while Macrotech Developers, Oberoi Realty, and Phoenix Mills posted weaker-than-expected results. Similarly, in the general industrials sector, companies like BHEL and Jindal Saw exceeded expectations, whereas Grindwell Norton, Suzlon Energy, Supreme Industries, and AIA Engineering underperformed relative to Forecaster estimates.

    OMCs miss estimates on all fronts

    Q2 was a real bummer for oil marketing companies (OMCs) such as Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum. All of these firms missed net profit estimates and saw it decline for another quarter — a negative trend that started in Q2 last year. However, just before this downhill journey, these OMCs had reported all-time high net profits because of cheap Russian crude that India imported last year. Even today, India imports most of its crude oil from Russia (above 40%), but it is not as cheap, creating pressure on their profit margins.

    Meanwhile, in the pharma industry, it feels like the firms were struggling to manage both sides of the scale — one side representing revenue and the other side representing net profit. Pharma bellwethers like Sun Pharmaceutical and Cipla barely managed to meet their revenue consensus, while delivering on higher than expected net income. On the contrary, firms like Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Ajanta Pharma, and Piramal Pharma missed Forecaster's net profit estimates, primarily due to their growth-seeking approach.

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