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India has seen the highest number of IPOs among Asian countries this year. In the past six months, 46 companies have collectively raised over Rs 97,000 crore via the mainboard IPO route, according to Trendlyne’s IPO dashboard. 

However, the IPO buzz in India seems to be fading. A performance check of IPOs shows that the listing and post-listing performance in the second half of 2024 has fallen compared to 2023 and the first half of 2024. In the case of IPOs like Hyundai Motors, retail and non-institutional subscription levels have declined, reflecting reduced investor enthusiasm. 

Moreover, quite a few of the mainboard IPOs (about 42%) of the ongoing quarter have listed at a discount. The average listing gains of the IPOs during this quarter is slightly over 16% compared to average listing gains of 33.8% last quarter. The tepid IPO market appears to be caused by various factors ranging from valuations to market sentiments. 

Large issue-size IPOs struggle perform post-listing

On October 15, India saw its biggest IPO ever, with Hyundai Motors India raising Rs 27,870 crore. The world's third-largest automotive original equipment manufacturer (OEM), made its market debut at a 7.2% discount to the issue price. Analysts believe that there were two reasons behind this dull response. First, this was a 100% Offer for Sale (OFS) by the parent company, which did not sit well with retail investors since no fresh funds were being infused into the business. Second, the upper price band for the IPO was set at Rs 1,960, implying a valuation of 26 times the projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY24 and approximately 30 times EPS for FY25, which exceeds the auto industry average P/E ratio of 24x. Market-changing technology is rare in the auto sector, which limits aggressive growth forecasts

Swiggy's Rs 11,327 crore listing was another highlight, becoming the second-biggest IPO of the year. The food delivery giant made its market debut with a 16.9% premium, but has fallen since listing and is currently trading at a premium of 7.8% over its issue price. The profit booking by investors looking for IPO gains and a high valuation gap (at the time of listing) have contributed to this decline. Additionally, the company has struggled with consistent net losses since its inception. For the fiscal year ending March 31, Swiggy reported a loss of Rs 2,350.24 crore, a reduction from Rs 4,179.30 crore in FY23 and Rs 3,628.89 crore in FY22.

Cement and construction companies suffer the biggest losses post-listing

Cement and construction companies, Afcons Infrastructure, Deepak Builders & Engineers and Garuda Construction and Engineering also launched their IPOs this quarter. However, the performance of these listings has been largely disappointing. 

Deepak Builders & Engineers made its market debut at a 20.2% discount. The poor performance of the IPO can be attributed to a cautious market outlook. In contrast, Garuda Construction & Engineering and Afcons Infrastructure had a more promising start, debuting at a 12.5% premium and 2.4% premium, respectively. However, Garuda’s stock is currently trading at a discount of 12.8%. Despite a strong order book and a diversified project portfolio, Garuda's performance is vulnerable to the cyclical nature of the construction industry and ongoing market volatility, which likely impacted its stock value.

KRN Heat Exchanger and Waaree Energies are the best-performing IPOs of the ongoing quarter

Among all the IPOs launched this quarter, KRN Heat Exchangers and Refrigeration and  Waaree Energies stand out for delivering positive returns. The commercial services company got listed at an impressive 117% premium and is currently trading at a premium of 238%. Whereas, Waaree energies, a consumer durables company made a strong debut, listing at a premium of 55.6% and currently trading at an impressive 96.6% premium to its issue price. 

Waaree is also expanding its global reach by setting up a 3 GW manufacturing facility in the United States to cater to rising international demand for solar energy. In FY24, the company reported the second-highest operating income among domestic solar PV module manufacturers in India. Waaree also reported a 69% year-on-year revenue increase, reaching Rs 11,398 crore, while its profit after tax more than doubled to Rs 1,274 crore. 

The recent downturn in India's IPO market is part of a broader trend affecting the equity markets. Both the Sensex and Nifty have entered a correction phase, with declines exceeding 10% from their recent highs. This decline has been driven by  continued selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and muted macro numbers. In November alone, FIIs withdrew Rs 22,420.3 crore, contributing to a total outflow of Rs 1.2 lakh crore since Nifty peaked in September. Additionally, rising US bond yields, weak corporate earnings, and ongoing global economic uncertainties have further soured market sentiment.

A defensive sector - healthcare - dominates this week’s analyst picks, with three out of five stocks from this space. 

1. Healthcare Global Enterprises:

ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this hospital operator with a target price of Rs 600, indicating an upside of 28.3%. Healthcare Global Enterprises (HCG) specializes in establishing and managing hospitals and medical diagnostic services, focusing on advanced cancer treatments. In Q2FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 14% YoY to Rs 553 crore, supported by a 15% rise in its hospitals business. The average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) stood at Rs 45,188, marking a 7% increase.

HCG’s EBITDA margins stood at 17.3%. The company’s management anticipates margins to gradually improve to around 20% by Q4FY25, supported by higher occupancy rates and an improved payee mix. Analysts Siddhant Khandekar, Shubh Mehta, and Vedant Nilekar highlight that rising margins at new centres and the integration of Vizag Hospital, which holds over 30% market share in Vizag, will drive growth.

The company is developing two advanced hospitals in North Bangalore and Whitefield, with a combined capacity of 125 beds, expected to be fully operational by early FY26. It plans to expand its total bed capacity to 900 within three years. The analysts project a revenue CAGR of 6.8% and a net profit CAGR of 15.1% for FY25-26.

2. DOMS Industries:

Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this stationary products company with a target price of Rs 3,120. This indicates a potential upside of 14.4%. Analysts Preeyam Tolia and Suhanee Shome are positive about the company's growth, highlighting its efforts to diversify its product range. DOMS is expanding into the larger pens category, moving beyond its focus on small pencils, and entering fast-growing sectors like bags, toys, and diapers.

DOMS has recently acquired a 51.8% stake in Unilcan Healthcare for Rs 55 crore, which makes baby diapers and wet wipes under the ‘Wowper’ brand. The diaper market, valued at $2 billion, is expected to grow to $3 billion in the coming years. The company's distribution network is expected to expand Unilcan’s reach across India, increasing market penetration beyond its current 12-state presence.

In Q2FY25, the company’s revenue grew by 19.7% YoY to 458 crore, driven by higher average selling prices, expanded distribution, and the integration of the Unilcan portfolio, which added Rs 14.3 crore (3% of sales) over 15 days. Its distribution reached 135,000 outlets, up from 125,000 in Q1FY25, a 10,000-outlet increase. 

For FY25, the management expects revenue growth of over 20% and EBITDA margins of 17-17.5%, down from 18.8% in Q2, due to higher costs of polymers, waxes, and the integration of the lower-margin Unilcan acquisition.

3. Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences:

Edelweiss reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this healthcare facilities company with a target price of Rs 630, indicating a potential upside of 11.1%. The company reported a 19% YoY revenue growth to Rs 777.3 crore in Q2FY25, exceeding the Trendlyne Forecaster estimates by 4.8%. Net profit rose by 19% to Rs 121 crore, while EBITDA margins improved by 89 bps to 28.1%. Analysts Ranvir Singh and Pawan Bhatia said “The margins are expected to remain stable for H2FY25, with the ramp-up of newly launched units likely to drive further improvements."

Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS) has expanded its operations with the launch of its Nashik unit (325 beds) and the newly acquired Queen’s NRI Hospital in Vizag (300 beds) during Q2, increasing its total bed capacity to 4,610. Additionally, the company signed operations and management (O&M) agreements with two hospitals, Kannur (200 beds) and Guntur (200 beds), set to begin operations in Q3FY25. With these O&M hospitals, KIMS' total bed capacity is projected to reach ~5,000 in FY25, up from 3,975 in FY24.

Singh and Bhatia are optimistic about the upcoming projects in Thane, Bangalore, Srikakulam, and Ongole, expected to commence operations in H2. They note that a 22% YoY growth in average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) during H1 indicates the potential for better-than-expected ARPOB performance for the full year.

4. Archean Chemical Industries:

KR Choksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this chemical firm with a target price of Rs 890. This indicates an upside of 31.3%. Archean Chemical Industries’ (ACI) revenue fell 17% YoY in Q2FY25 due to a 19% drop in the industrial salt segment, which accounted for 62% of total sales. The decline was mainly caused by inventory losses worth Rs 40 crore due to a cyclone. Poor road conditions also disrupted logistics, reducing export volumes to 7.5 lakh tonnes, as ACI depends on over 300 trucks for salt transportation.

The company’s bromine business, however, grew 11% YoY in Q2FY25, with volumes rising to 4,800 MT from 3,400 MT in Q2FY24, supported by steady domestic demand. Analyst Dipak Saha highlights that ACI’s growing bromine derivatives business could help shift its focus from basic commodities to more value-added specialty products, offsetting weaknesses in its core operations.

ACI targets over 10 lakh tonnes of industrial salt per quarter in H2FY25, recovering from disruptions in H1. The company’s management also aims to produce 20,000 tonnes of bromine in FY25, driven by strong domestic demand and better market conditions, with plans to increase production to 25,000 tonnes in FY26.

5. Jupiter Life Line Hospitals:

Anand Rathi initiates its ‘Buy’ rating on this hospital chain with a target price of Rs 1,740, indicating an upside of 16.8%. The company reported a 9% YoY rise in average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) during H1FY25, led by ARPOB at Rs 66,700, Rs 55,000, and Rs 44,700 for its Thane, Pune, and Indore units, respectively. Analysts Himanshu Binani and Rohan Shukla mention “The recent insurance rate revisions at the Pune hospital and new insurance tie-ups at the Indore facility should further enhance ARPOB and occupancy rates.”

In Q2FY25, Jupiter Lifeline Hospitals reported a 23% YoY increase in revenue to Rs 322.6 crore and a 53% rise in net profit. The results were in-line with the brokerage’s expectations, with revenue surpassing Trendlyne Forecaster estimates by 5.2%, though net profit missed by 1.5%. The growth was driven by higher occupancy across hospitals. Binani and Shukla project 14% revenue and 21% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-27, supported by increasing occupancy at Pune and Indore hospitals.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

Donald Trump is set to return to the White House. His ‘Agenda 47’ has 20 core promises that aim to “Make America Great Again.” And if you’ve read those, there's one question worth asking — will these ideas steer America’s wealth in the right direction? From the presidential election result, we can conclude that about 51% of voters think so, while the rest aren't on board with Trump and his ideas.

On one hand, Trump says that he will end inflation and make things affordable again, but at the same time, he plans to impose tariffs and cut outsourcing. These promises are contradictory, since bringing everything back to the US will inflate prices. Even with “hugely lucrative” IRA subsidies, BloombergNEF estimates for example, that “US-made solar cells and modules will cost 18.5 cents a watt, compared with 15.6 cents for a product from Southeast Asia.”

Secondly, Trump wants to make America the dominant energy producer in the world (which it already is). He aims to do this by increasing the production of fossil fuels, further accelerating the risk of climate change. All this after America was hit hard by many calamities just this year, like Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which resulted in over $100 billion in damages, according to USA Today. 

In an attempt to answer the query of this gentleman on X (formerly Twitter) and many others like him, I decided to take a closer look at these policies and their impact on the US national debt.

Stretching legs beyond the coverlet

Let me add some context on what could happen if the government does not use its finances responsibly and the debt problem that might result. The national debt is currently at around $36 trillion, which is 1.3 times the GDP as of 2023. The interest payments for this debt stood at 15% of revenue from taxes as of last year and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts it to be around 22% of revenue by 2034.

In a given fiscal year, when a government spends more money than it earns, it runs into a budget deficit. To cover this gap, the government borrows money by selling bonds. The national debt is the accumulation of this borrowing along with the interest owed to investors who purchased these securities.

The CBO projects that by the mid-2030s, all the revenue earned will be required to fund mandatory government spending alone – which is largely Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and interest on debt. At that point, the only way to finance basic functions such as defense, law enforcement, infrastructure, and education would be to borrow more or cut back on discretionary spending.

CBO projects that by 2034, the US will need to borrow more just to pay interest on debt

The runaway debt problem

The public debt level has risen significantly over the past decade. You can blame the financial crisis or pandemic or high inflation and maybe going forward, the tax cuts or natural calamities, but the fact remains that it currently stands at near all-time highs. The forecast laid out by the CATO Institute suggests that even with deficits staying steady for the next 30 years, the total public debt will keep rising, thanks to the accruing interest on the debt.

Public debt of the US to breach WW2 level around 2028

Both Trump and Harris shrugged the debt question off during their campaigns and didn’t bother talking about how they might tackle this. Instead, both candidates were busy unveiling costly new proposals.

Trump is vocal about cutting taxes and aims to deliver large tax cuts for workers and corporations, which might decrease their revenue from tax collections and hence increase their deficits. He’s talked about abolishing the income tax entirely, and funding the government entirely through tariffs.

The effect of all this talk has been yields rising in US 10-year bonds since September ‘24, which means rising borrowing costs for the government. That rate grew steadily with the chances of Trump winning. It's mainly because investors fear that rising budget deficits during the Trump presidency would require funding through increased Treasury issuance.

US 10-year bond yield grew as chances of Trump winning increased

A rocky road ahead

Unfortunately, there’s no easy fix for this debt issue. It will require a mix of spending cuts and higher taxes. The longer we delay, the tougher the solution will get. Moody’s has warned of a potential downgrade if America’s fiscal health deteriorates.

Trump's administration has a challenge ahead - manage the ballooning deficit, but also address long-term issues like healthcare reform, infrastructure spending, and military expenditures

Frankly speaking, nobody can accurately tell you how soon or late this debt issue might turn into a crisis. One way to manage this risk is to invest in the most durable companies that are currently trading at the right valuation and are trending upward. Investors and central banks have also been recently turning to the ultimate defensive investment - gold.

1. Indian Hotels Company:

This hotels chain has risen by 8.3% over the past week following the announcement of its Q2FY25 earnings on November 7. Indian Hotels’ net profit surged by 3.3x YoY to Rs 554.6 crore in Q2FY25, mainly due to an exceptional gain of Rs 307 crore from the incorporation of Taj SATS as a subsidiary of the company. Taj SATS is a joint venture (JV) between Indian Hotels and Singapore Airport Terminal Services (SATS) specialising in airline and institutional catering. IHCL holds a 51% stake in the JV. 

Revenue increased by 27.6% YoY to Rs 1,890.2 crore, driven by improvements in the hoteliering and air & institutional catering segments. Revenue beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 8.6%, and was higher than the industry growth of 10.2%. EBITDA margins expanded by 270 basis points to 27.5%. During the quarter, growth was fueled by strong demand, which had slowed in Q1, due to elections and heatwaves. Additional wedding dates also boosted performance.

The company’s revenue per available room (RevPAR) for Q2FY25 grew by 12% YoY to Rs 7,200, outperforming its industry and competition with a premium of 66%. Occupancy stood at 71% during the quarter, much higher compared to the industry’s 61%. 

Indian Hotels signed 23 and opened six hotels in Q2FY25; it targets to open 25 new hotels in FY25. Presently, the company's portfolio of hotels stands at 232 operational hotels with 118 new hotels in the pipeline. Going forward, the company targets double-digit revenue growth for FY25. Commenting on this, Puneet Chhatwal, the CEO of the company said, “During the first half, which is the weaker half, we've already achieved 11% YoY revenue growth and hope to deliver on the double-digit promise on a much higher base going forward in Q3 and Q4. With 30% higher wedding dates and an increase in foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) expected in H2, we remain confident of comfortably delivering double-digit revenue growth”.

Axis Direct has a ‘Buy’ rating on Indian Hotels with a target price of Rs 800. The brokerage believes the increase in FTAs is expected to positively impact ARRs (the company’s average room rate stood at Rs 10,100 during Q2). It has a positive outlook for the overall industry as the steady growth in the Indian middle class and their increased spending power is projected to contribute an additional Rs 5,200 crore annually to the hospitality market.

2. Eicher Motors:

This motorcycle producer surged 6.4% on Thursday following the announcement of its Q2 results. Eicher reported a 5.2% YoY revenue growth at Rs 4,617 crore, with net profit increasing by 8.3% YoY to Rs 1,100 crore. Both revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 3.8% and 1.5% respectively.

In the first half of this fiscal year, Royal Enfield’s market share in the premium segment (greater than 250cc motorcycles) dropped to 7.5% from 8.2% a year ago as the sales volumes came in flat at 4.5 lakh motorcycles. In a bid to gain market share, the company announced its plans to enter into the EV segment with its new sub brand - The Flying Flea.

Meanwhile, Eicher’s joint venture with Volvo, VECV, has the highest market share in the Light & medium duty (LMD) segment at 36.4%, and contributes over 10% to Eicher Motors’ net profit. VECV saw its market share on a consolidated basis rise from 15.9% a year ago to 18.9%, thanks to volume growth of 6.3%. The LMD buses outperformed other segments, with volume growth of 22.3% YoY in Q2FY25.

Commenting on the outlook, MD & CEO of Eicher Motors, Siddhartha Lal, said, “The first half has not been so good for the industry because of low government spending on capex and uneven monsoon, but we expect a better second half.” This optimism is reflected in the October sales volume, where the company sold over 1.1 lakh motorcycles, 30% higher than its monthly average of around 80,000.

Jefferiesmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock as they expect Royal Enfield to be a key beneficiary of the two-wheeler premiumisation trend. They believe that the toughest phase of competition for Eicher Motors is over, as volumes show signs of growth. With a target price of Rs 5,500, the stock has a potential upside of 12.6%. 

3. Asian Paints:

This paints company fell by over 12% in the past week. The company declared an underwhelming Q2FY25 result on 9th November. Its net profit fell by 42.4% to Rs 694.6 crore on the back of a rise in cost of raw material, while its revenue fell by 5.1%. The firm missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 6.3% and net profit by 36.8%. The stock appears in a screener for stocks with PE higher than the Industry PE.

Q2FY25 was weaker than expected for the company due to sustained sluggish demand. The company’s domestic business took a hit as its decorative and home decor segment (which constitutes over 88% of net revenue) saw a 6.7% YoY revenue decline mainly on the back of the price cuts taken last year, and weak consumer sentiment due to heavy rains & floods. The company’s international business remained flat due to currency devaluation in Ethiopia and political unrest in Bangladesh. However, the Middle East and Sri Lanka markets showed strong growth. To counter inflation, the company implemented a price increase of around 1.2% in Q2FY25, but expects to see its full impact in H2FY25.

Amit Syngle, MD & CEO of the company, noted the weaker performance in metro towns, larger cities, and the B2B market, where Asian Paints holds a 15-20% share. The industrial segment however, performed well. He remains cautious about demand recovery in Q3FY25 due to challenges in urban markets but is optimistic that stronger rural demand and infrastructure spending will drive growth in the second half of the year. Syngle also added, “Our expansion continues strongly, with more retailers opening in urban suburbs and newer towns. We now have nearly 1.67 lakh retail touchpoints, reflecting a robust market footprint.” On FY25 guidance he said, “For H1, we've ended up at about 18.5% EBITDA margin. So we are still within our previously mentioned overall guidance range of 18-20% for FY25. “

KR Choksey has retained a ‘Hold’ rating on Asian Paints with a target price of Rs 2,566. The brokerage has lowered its FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates by 9.1% and 14.2%, respectively, due to a miss in Q2FY25 estimates and margin pressures from increased competitive intensity. However, it highlights that despite higher costs and margin contraction, the company's focus on innovation, rural demand, and infrastructure spending offers hope for a recovery in the second half of FY25.

4. Alkem Laboratories:

This pharma company rose by 1.2% on November 13 after announcing its Q2FY25 results. The company’s net profit grew 11% YoY to Rs 688.6 crore in Q2FY25, driven by inventory destocking, beating Trendlyne Forecaster estimates by 2.8%. However, revenue decreased marginally to Rs 3,414.7 crore due to lower US sales. The company appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding in the last quarter.

The Q2 revenue was hit by a drop in international sales, which fell by 12.9% YoY to Rs 920 crore. US sales, which contribute 17.7% to total revenue, declined by 25% to Rs 570 crore due to limited new launches, price erosion, and volume decline in existing products. Sales from other international markets, including Latin America, Australia, and Europe, made up 9.5% of total sales. India sales grew by 5.7% YoY, reaching Rs 2,461 crore.

In H1FY25, the company launched two products and received eight ANDA approvals, bringing the total number of ANDAs filed to 178, with 152 final approvals to date. Alkem has also started operations at its contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) plant in the US, which is expected to drive growth in the medium term. Additionally, it has completed phase 3 clinical trials for the Denosumab drug in the US, which has a global market size of $3.3 billion and is expected to reach $5.1 billion by FY28.

Speaking after the results, the company’s CEO, Vikas Gupta, said “We have tackled our past supply challenges by improving inventory levels, bringing back orders in the US down from 38% to just 2%. These improvements position us well for stronger US performance in H2.” He also expects mid-single-digit growth in overall revenue and aims for a 100 basis point improvement in margins, targeting around 18.5-19.5% for FY25.

Post results, Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Neutral’ rating on Alkem with a target price of Rs 5,720, indicating an upside of 3.5%. The brokerage notes that Alkem is refocusing its US generics business by reducing low-margin products and concentrating on products with less competition. Additionally, it is gearing up for CDMO opportunities, expanding its biotech manufacturing capabilities starting from Q4FY25 to Q1FY26.

5. Relaxo Footwears:

Thisfootwear manufacturer has fallen 12.9% over the past week following the announcement of itsQ2FY25 results on November 8. Relaxo Footwears net profit has declined 16.9% YoY to Rs 36.7 crore, missing Forecaster estimates by 14.4%. Revenue decreased 5%YoY to Rs 679.4 crore during the quarter.

The drop in revenue was largely due to weak demand in both general and modern trade channels. In general trade, distributors faced high inventory levels, while Relaxo intentionally reduced e-commerce sales to counter excessive discounting from platforms like Flipkart and Amazon.

Chairman and Managing Director Ramesh Kumar Dua,said, “During the quarter, the industry witnessed an increase in lower priced, unorganised competition, which led to downtrading by consumers in a high inflation environment.” He also mentioned that the company chose not to lower prices or margins to unsustainable levels, which helped maintain operating margins during the quarter. However, higher depreciation costs impacted the company's net profit.

Instead of e-commerce sales, the company is expanding its distributor network across the country to improve its retail network. It is strengthening ties with retailers through the "Relaxo Parivaar" app, which serves over 70,000 outlets. For FY25, the company has allocated Rs 100 crore for capex, primarily for molds and machinery, with no plans for new capacity additions this year.

Looking ahead, the management is anticipating flat volume growth overall for FY25, with a target of 8-10% growth in the Sparx product line. Sparx is a budget footwear line that offers closed footwear at competitive prices, generally lower than competitors. This focus on closed footwear continues to drive its momentum and distribution.

Post results, Yes Securitiesmaintained its ’Sell’ rating with a target price of Rs 636. The brokerage projects a 4% volume growth CAGR from FY25-27, as the company aims to regain market share. It also expects a 3% annual increase in average selling price during this period due to a better product mix. Margins are expected to return to 14% by FY27. Overall, revenue, EBITDA, and net profit are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 7%, 7%, and 10%, respectively, over FY25-27.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

Indian equity markets initially celebrated Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential race, rising 1.1% on Nov 6—only to take a sharp U-turn the next day, falling 1.2% as investors took a closer look at his policy plans, which include aggressive tariffs on imports.  Trump in his first term was a temperamental head of state, and he has already complained about India's trade policies: "India is very big with tariffs". Investors are in wait and watch mode this time around.

Indian markets have been moody since September 26. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) kicked off a historical selling spree, dragging indices downward. Amid the turbulence, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have emerged as the market’s backbone, stepping in with record-breaking purchases and mitigating the slide.

But, there are still worrying signs. Inflation has been simmering since July, and may have now boiled over.

In October, India’s CPI inflation rose 6.21%, surpassing the expected 5.8% due to high food inflation. 

Indian superstar investors were wary of rising markets and soaring valuations in Q1FY25. And in hindsight, they may have made the right decision. The same caution is visible in Q2, as these investors slowed the pace of investments and sold considerably more than they bought. 

Which hidden gems did superstar investors bet on? And which sectors are they worried about? 

In this week’s Analyticks,

• Superstar investors get picky in their investments
• Screener: Stocks in the PE buy zone with high durability scores and price upsides

Let’s dive in.

Superstar investors shuffle their portfolios, trim stakes

Superstar investors made strategic portfolio changes in Q2FY25, with selling activity once again outpacing buying.

Many top superstar investors saw their net worth decline (as of November 11), as recent shareholding data for Q2FY25 came in. The drop is from volatility in key holdings, and strategic selling across multiple companies. 

Notably, the net worth of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Associates (now managed by Rare Enterprises), Ashish Kacholia, and Dolly Khanna fell by over 10% as of Nov 11.

Major superstar investors see net worth fall in Q3 after major sells

Vijay Kedia stands out with a 9.4% net worth increase, driven by strong gains in his top holdings—Tejas Networks and Neuland Laboratories—which rose over 20% in the past month. 

Dolly Khanna’s portfolio suffered the largest decline, falling 22.3%, as she reduced her stake in several companies, and with her top holding, Chennai Petroleum Corp, experiencing a 31% drop.

Rare Enterprises also saw its portfolio fall, primarily due to stake reductions. Of the 27 stocks in the portfolio, 17 saw a reduction, with Tata Motors and Baazar Style Retail being the only ones where Jhunjhunwala's stake increased.

Stocks sold by superstar investors outnumber the new buys

Overall, superstar investors appear cautious, showing restraint in both new acquisitions and increasing stakes in existing holdings. Top investors trimmed stakes in 91 companies while adding to just 37. 

Ace investor Sunil Singhania, for instance, refrained from buying new stocks or increasing his stake in any company, instead reducing holdings in 13 out of 22 companies.

New stakes: Superstars pick financially strong and newly listed companies

Two major themes come to light when looking into the buy list of superstars – strong financials and newly listed companies. 

Barring E2E Networks and ASM Technologies, all other companies’ Trendlyne Durability score is in the ‘Good’ category. A high Durability score indicates consistently good financial performance: stable revenues, profits, cash flows and low debt. Newly listed companies that don’t have durability scores are not included in this list.

Superstar investors are buying rising stocks with good financial health

20 Microns and POCL Enterprises top the list with a durability score of 90. When overall DVM scores are considered, POCL Enterprises and Emkay Global Financial Services come out on top as they score a ‘Good’ rating across all three metrics, making them both ‘Strong Performers’. Interestingly, these three top-scoring stocks were added by Dolly Khanna to her portfolio in Q2. 

Even the big investors got sucked into the IPO frenzy in Q2 

One major theme among the buys is superstar investors picking newly listed companies, as the IPO frenzy continues in India, especially the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) segment. 

Out of 19 new buys, six are newly listed companies. Only Baazar Style and Stanley Lifestyles were Main Line IPOs among these six newly listed stocks. 

All six companies listed in the green, with TAC Infosech’s listing gains at 187.3%. But here’s the kicker - four out of these six companies have fallen in the past quarter, with TBI Corn declining 32.7%. Volatility in the market has affected newly listed companies as well. 

Superstar investors’ new buys in IPOs lag in the past quarter after listing above issue price

The top performer here is Vijay Kedia’s SME stock, TAC Infosec. This software and services company has risen 47.2% in the volatile past quarter. 

A focus on performance: Superstar investors sell overvalued, underperforming small and mid-caps

A major theme across the sell list by superstars is that these stocks are either in the sell zone (trading higher than their historical PEs) or are underperforming the Nifty 50 in the past quarter. 

Only three companies among the 19 sells are in the PE buy zone - Arvind Fashions (Sold by Akash Bhanshali), Mitsu Chem Plast (sold by Porinju Veliyath) and Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (sold by Dolly Khanna). 

Most stocks sold by superstar investors trade in PE Sell Zone

Interestingly, all stocks sold were small or mid-cap companies. In addition, half of the stocks sold have underperformed the benchmark index in the past quarter. 

Textiles sector dominates the superstar sell list 

Textiles apparel & accessories and commercial services & supplies sectors dominate the sell list, followed by chemicals & petrochemicals.

The sells list also includes a loss-making company (negative net profit TTM) - Deepak Spinners. 

Vijay Kedia’s 2020 bet Tejas Networks stands out 

When we look at long-term bets by these superstars, Vijay Kedia’s Tejas Networks and Mukul Agrawal's Neuland Labs come out on top. Tejas Networks and Neuland Labs contribute 2.5% and 7.9% of their portfolios respectively. 

Best performing long-term holdings: Kedia’s Tejas Networks, Mukul Agrawal's Neuland Labs

Interestingly, high-performing Neuland Labs is Kedia’s third-largest holding as well, leading to a sharp rise in Kedia’s portfolio over the past two years.

Bhanshali’s Gujarat Fluorochemicals (32% of total holding value) and Khanna’s Chennai Petroleum Corp (22% of total holding value) on the other hand, are lagging since they bought these stocks. However, Bhanshali's net worth has almost tripled in the past two years due to high performance in their other holdings and fresh buys in new stocks. 

Screener: Stocks in the PE buy zone with high durability scores and target price upsides

Auto stocks have the highest Forecaster target price upside

In the current volatile market environment, where the Nifty 50 has fallen 3.4% over the past month, we look at stocks in the buy zone with strong durability and high target price upside. This screener shows technically strong stocks with high durability scores and target price upside.

Stocks from the automobile & auto components, FMCG, software & services, and cement & construction sectors appear in the screener. The most noticeable stocks in the screener are Signatureglobal (India), Tata Motors, Emami, EIH, Motherson Sumi Wiring India, 3M India, ACC, and Quess Corp.

Tata Motors has one of the highest Forecaster target price upsides, of 38.6% over the next 12 months. But the stock has declined by 27.6% over the past quarter due to lower retail sales. This cars & utility vehicles company has a good Trendlyne Durability score of 85 and a Piotroski score of 8, indicating still healthy financials. ICICI Direct believes that the company’s healthy margins, return ratios, and low leverage on the balance sheet will help in long-term growth.

Emami also features in the screener with a Forecaster target price upside of 26.6% over the next 12 months. This personal products company also has a good Trendlyne Durability score of 80 and a Piotroski score of 9. Anand Rathi expects the company’s growth trajectory to continue on the back of a niche product portfolio, leading market position, recovery in rural sales (50-55% of total revenue), improvement in distribution, direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands, and digital ventures. Emami has also struggled in the volatile market, and its price has fallen 17.3% over the past quarter, underperforming the FMCG sector by 8.2 percentage points.

You can find some popular screeners here.

Elections took place this year in countries representing nearly half of the world’s population. From Taiwan’s January general election to the US presidential race in November, these pivotal votes came amid climate change, inflation, and global economic and geopolitical tensions. Key issues shaping the political landscape include the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts in the Middle East, and trade friction between the US and China, the two largest economies.

In 2024, there has been a noticeable rise in far-right parties. Right-wing governments often emphasize traditional values, reduced government regulation, and lower immigration. This year saw numerous countries undergo political changes, with new leaders or governments adopting these ideologies. These shifts suggest the rise of policies that challenge the existing global political order.

Modi and Trump’s wins reflect rising rightward movements in India and the US

Narendra Modi’s win in the June election secured his third term as Prime Minister, extending the BJP's leadership, but with a smaller majority. The continuity is expected to shape India's economic policies, and its approach to global issues, including climate change and trade. Donald Trump’s recent victory in the US elections highlights that this trend of populist, right-wing leaders winning elections is a global one. These leaders and their parties capitalize on frustrations among working-class voters, particularly of global trade threatening their jobs, and rising immigration. The ongoing cost of living crisis as inflation drove up the price of groceries, also contributed to rising support for far-right movements. Trump's stance on immigration was a central theme in his campaigns, and he has promised that mass deportations will start as soon as he takes office. He’s also committed to ending birthright citizenship, and expanding travel bans.

According to Mohit Kumar, chief economist at Jefferies, immigration has become a particularly potent election issue in large Western economies grappling with aging populations and labor shortages. The increase in immigration from regions like Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East has helped fill job vacancies, but created a fertile ground for nationalist, populist movements.

Moody's ratings indicate that India stands to benefit from these shifts in power. The agency highlights that with Trump at the helm, escalating US-China tensions and potential investment restrictions in critical sectors could lead to a redirection of trade and investment. “In the Asia-Pacific, heightened US scrutiny in strategic sectors may prompt a move away from China, potentially weakening its economy and regional growth. In contrast, countries like India and ASEAN nations could gain new opportunities in this evolving landscape,” Moody's stated.

The European Union which includes countries like Hungary, Slovakia, France, Germany, Austria and Netherlands have also seen right-wing populist parties make strong gains or come to power in recent elections. This shift doesn’t seem to stem directly from factors like high immigration rates or poor economic conditions, but rather from broader geopolitical instability. European voters appear increasingly drawn to alternative approaches, signaling a desire for change.

Some nations shift left amid global changes

While voters in most major economies shifted to the right, there are a few countries that moved left. Left-wing governments advocate for greater social and economic equality, often supporting socially liberal ideas and representing socialist or progressive movements.

The United Kingdom also held elections this year, resulting in a victory for the center-left Labour Party after 14 years of Conservative rule. The UK has experienced several years of turbulence, some caused under the Conservative government and some by external factors, that have left many voters feeling pessimistic about the nation's future. The UK's exit from the European Union, followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, severely impacted the economy.