By Trendlyne AnalysisThis finance company rose by over 5% on 13th January and touched a 52-week high of Rs 872 today. The surge in its stock price came after the global brokerage Macquarie upgraded its rating on the stock to ‘Outperform’, as it believes that the company's credit card delinquencies have decreased, indicating better lending choices. Over the past 12 months, the company limited credit to borrowers with higher credit scores. The brokerage has also increased the stock's target price to Rs 1,000.
Its Q3FY25 net profit declined by 30.2% YoY to Rs 383.2 crore due to tighter regulations on fee income. Revenue was up by 0.5% YoY, primarily due to marginal growth in interest income. The company’s net profit missed forecaster estimates by 8.7%, due to a slower loan growth. It appears on screener for stocks where FIIs & FPIs are increasing their shareholding.
The company’s Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) slightly decreased to 3.24% during the quarter, down from 3.27% in the previous quarter. However, the gross credit cost rose by 40 bps to 9.4% QoQ.
Regarding the increase in credit costs, the company’s CEO & MD, Abhijit Chakravorty, said, “We are at an inflection point in our credit cycle. As we tighten underwriting, portfolio management, and collections, we expect credit costs to moderate. The speed of this will depend on changes in the unsecured lending ecosystem and the economy.”
According to RBI’s December 2024 data, the company's market share in card spends stood at 15.6%. Girish Budhiraja, Chief Sales & Marketing Officer, stated, "We expect our card spend market share to reach 18-20% in the next 3-4 quarters. We are projecting loan growth of 12-15% over the next 9-12 months. However, our outlook could change in either direction if the credit cost trajectory shifts or the economic mood changes."
Macquarie forecasts a significant decline in the company’s credit costs over the next two quarters, driven by factors like falling interest rates, better liquidity, and potential tax cuts. The brokerage also points out that the RBI's more lenient approach to unsecured loans could be an added boost. However, it has reduced its earnings projections for FY25-27 by 13-15%, reflecting slower growth in loans, net interest income and fee generation.
This aluminum manufacturer has fallen 7.8% in the past week despite beating Forecaster estimates for revenue and net profit in its Q3FY25 results. The decline comes after US President Trump’s move to set a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports without any exemptions. National Aluminium Co’s (NALCO) management noted that these tariffs could put pressure on global aluminum prices, similar to the impact seen in 2018-2020 after similar trade policies during Trump’s first term.
NALCO announced its Q3FY25 results on February 10, reporting a 39% YoY increase in revenue to Rs 4,662 crore, driven by higher sales realisation in alumina and metal. Net profit surged 2.3X YoY to Rs 1,566 crore, thanks to lower employee benefit expenses, material costs, and finance costs. The company appears in a screener of stocks with book value per share improving over the last two years.
Chairman & MD Pratap Singh said, “The alumina price trend of $400/tonne in previous years was breached when prices shot up to $800/t in Q3FY25 due to plant shutdowns in Australia. The prices are now correcting, with spot prices falling to $530/t and possibly declining further to the $450-500/t range.”
Singh also highlighted that analysts should not get too optimistic about the net profit jump – the decline in employee costs that drove profit higher, he noted, was due to a one-time provision for non-executive performance-related pay (PRP). Going forward, annual employee expenses are expected to stay over Rs 2,000 crore.
Speaking about capex, Singh said that NALCO is expanding its alumina refinery, increasing capacity by 1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) from the current 2.1 MTPA. The total capex for this expansion is now Rs 5,677 crore, of which Rs 3,500 crore has already been spent. The refinery is expected to be commissioned by the end of FY26, revised from the earlier target of September 2025.
Axis Direct has a ‘Buy’ rating on this PSU stock with a target price of Rs 220. The brokerage expects strong alumina realisations to drive another good quarter in Q4FY25. However, with spot prices declining, the impact of lower alumina prices may be seen from Q1FY26 onwards. Additional alumina volumes from the ongoing refinery expansion, however, will help offset some of the impact of lower prices on EBITDA in the future.
This internet retail company has declined 3% over the past week following the announcement of its Q3FY25 results. Nykaa’s net profit increased 61.4% YoY to Rs 26.1 crore, but missed Forecaster estimates by 29.6%.
Revenue rose 26.7% YoY to Rs 2,267.2 crore during the quarter, driven by growth in the beauty & personal care (BPC) and fashion segments. The company’s revenue beat estimates marginally by 0.2%.
During the quarter, Nykaa’s GMV (gross merchandise value) grew 25% YoY, driven by strong growth in the BPC segment, which contributes the majority of its revenue and has seen an increasing customer base and festive demand. Meanwhile, Nykaa Cosmetics, Kay Beauty, and Dot & Key continued to drive growth with new launches – the company is pushing its own brands hard, including its wakeup makeup line. The fashion segment grew 8% YoY despite a challenging demand environment and intense competition.
Recently, Shein, the Chinese low-cost fast-fashion giant, re-entered India through a partnership with Reliance Retail. Falguni Nayar, the CEO, underplayed the threat to Nykaa’s market share, saying, “Fashion is a vast industry. Shein operates in just one segment. With 4,000+ brands and more international players entering the market, no single brand can dominate”.
But analysts think differently, and believe Shein's re-entry into India could disrupt the country’s fashion market. Nykaa’s fashion vertical, which competes with Myntra, Tata Cliq Fashion, and Ajio, is expected to expand its catalogue with new brand partnerships.
Meanwhile, Nykaa continued to expand its retail network, with total stores reaching 221. The company expects to grow its store count to 350 over the next two years.
Following the Nykaa’s earnings announcement, Nuvama maintained its ‘Buy’ rating. The brokerage highlights that competition in fashion remains a concern, but profitability improvements in the eB2B segment are encouraging. It expects Nykaa’s beauty segment to remain a key growth driver.
Thishealthcare facilities company surged 10.7% on February 5 following the announcement of itsQ3FY25 results. During the quarter, the company’s net profit rose 15.6% YoY to Rs 142.9 crore in Q3FY25, while revenue grew 13.3% YoY to Rs 943.4 crore. The growth was driven by higher patient volumes, with a 10% increase in footfalls and a 13% rise in In-Patient Department (IPD) admissions.
The companyreported an Average Revenue Per Occupied Bed (ARPOB) of Rs 61,307, reflecting a marginal 1.2% YoY increase but a 1.3% QoQ decline. Toimprove ARPOB, Medanta is pushing high-value procedures, which contribute to better revenue per patient.
Medanta is also improving its payer mix by reducing dependence on lower-paying government schemes and increasing the proportion of insurance and cash patients. Additionally, the companyplans selective tariff hikes, particularly in facilities like Lucknow and Patna, where prices have remained unchanged for several years.
In Q3 FY25, Medantaadded 34 beds, bringing the total bed additions to 219 for the first nine months of FY25. This has increased the company’s total operational bed capacity to 3,042. The company hassecured a long-term lease for a 110-bed hospital in Ranchi to expand its presence in Jharkhand. Additionally, the 550-bed Noida hospital is set to begin operations within six months.
Pankaj Sahni, Group Chief Executive Officer of the companysaid, “We have roughly 1,000 bed additions planned over the next two years. We also have 3 major Greenfield projects underway, comprising approximately 1,600 beds.” These include projects in Mumbai Oshiwara, Pitampura, and Greater Kailash, which are expected to be completed in the next 3 to 4 years.
Post results, Axis Directmaintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this company, citing optimism about the business recovery, improvements in ARPOB, and capacity expansion. The brokerage expects a CAGR of 21.5% in sales, 18.2% in EBITDA and 18.1% in net profit over FY25-26, with a target price of Rs 1,270 per share.
This financial institution is a value stock, under radar, according to Trendlyne’s DVM score. PFC exhibits high financial strength and is trading at an affordable valuation, demonstrated by its high durability and valuation scores. However, the stock price momentum is weak due to the recent correction in the stock market. Shares of PFC currently trade at a discount of over 35% from its 52-week high.
In Q3, the company reported a revenue growth of 14% and a net profit growth of 23% on a YoY basis. Its consolidated loan book witnessed a 12% YoY growth, driven by disbursements in the renewable and distribution segments. To further expand its renewable portfolio, it entered into an agreement on January 16 with Japan Bank for International Cooperation for a loan of ~Rs 6,500 crore.
Foreign currency borrowing makes up 19% of its total borrowings, of which 95% is hedged against currency fluctuations. The remaining 5% unhedged portfolio has come under risk following the recent depreciation of INR. Chairman and MD Parminder Chopra noted that PFC anticipates a loss of Rs 45 crore for every one-rupee depreciation of INR with respect to USD.
PFC is in the advanced stages of resolving loan defaults totalling around Rs 5,000 crore from the KSK Mahanadi, TRN Energy, and Shiga Energy projects. Once resolved, it expects to release approximately 73% of the allocated provisions—roughly Rs 3,650 crore—which is the capital set aside to cover potential losses should these companies default on their loans.
During the Q3 earnings call, Chopra said, “We expect these provision reversals to provide sufficient cushion against the impact of rupee depreciation.” The resolution of these defaults is expected to improve PFC’s asset quality, potentially lowering its gross non-performing assets (NPAs) from 2.7% at the end of Q3 to below 2%.
Chopra is confident of a strong performance in Q4, driven by disbursements in the renewable portfolio, which will help PFC achieve its guidance of 13-14% annual growth in assets under management for FY25. Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, anticipating a surge in disbursements of 110% YoY in Q4, supported by benign credit costs and the resolution of its stressed assets.
Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.
