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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    05 Jan 2023
    Screener of the week: Stocks delivering consistent returns and growth since the past three years

    Screener of the week: Stocks delivering consistent returns and growth since the past three years

    By Deeksha Janiani

    American martial artist Bruce Lee once said that “long-term consistency trumps short-term intensity”.  The comment about martial arts holds true for stock markets as well. Consistent growth stocks have rewarded investors with higher returns time and again.

    Companies like Varun Beverages and Tube Investments of India have grown their profits at a CAGR of over 30% in the past three fiscal years. They multiplied investors’ wealth at a whopping rate of over 60% between 2019 and 2022 end.

    Varun Beverages has steadily expanded its distribution reach into newer geographies, and added new products to its portfolio. The company also took advantage of the sudden jump in out-of-home consumption post the omicron wave. It more than doubled its profits on a TTM basis and also doubled investors’ money in 2022. 

    Tube Investments has been diversifying its product portfolio away from the auto sector, which is cyclical in nature. The company managed to post robust growth between FY19-FY22, a period of downcycle for the auto space. It staged a successful turnaround of CG Power in FY22, which is now driving its higher growth along with its export markets. 

    PI industries is another player which has benefited from the consistent growth of its export business over the past few years. It also clocked strong revenue growth in the past few quarters on robust volumes. The company was a top industry outperformer in the past year.

    Emerging as the dark horse in the telecom sector, Bharti Airtel staged a smart recovery post the slowdown in FY16-FY19, and returned to the black in FY22. Healthy subscriber addition, market share gain in 4G segment and the robust rise in average revenue per user aided its financial growth. 

    Smallcap capital goods stocks have also surprised investors with their consistent returns and net profit growth in the past three years. These companies benefited from strong order inflows as investments revived in railways, defence, infrastructure, metals and mining, and energy sectors. RHI Magnesita India and Timken India emerged as the fastest growers and wealth compounders within this group.

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    The Baseline
    02 Jan 2023
    Five Analyst Picks with High Upsides

    Five Analyst Picks with High Upsides

    By Suhas Reddy
    1. Gujarat Fluorochemicals: ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this specialty chemicals company with a target price of Rs 4,270. This indicates an upside of 36.6%. Analysts Sanjay Jain and Akash Kumar are positive about the firm’s prospects given its capacity expansion in the fluoropolymers segment. They believe this will expand its presence in new-age industries such as batteries, solar panels and green hydrogen. The analysts also believe the stock is trading at an attractive valuation after a 25% fall “over the past three months, while fundamentals remain robust with opportunities expanding”. They say it is “the most affordable Indian fluorine player by valuations”. 

    Jain and Kumar expect the firm’s fluoropolymers export market to grow exponentially in the coming quarters and margins to improve, given the cheaper cost of production compared to its western peers. The analysts estimate the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 40.5% over FY22-24.  

    1. Chalet Hotels: Prabhudas Lilladher initiates coverage on this hotel chain with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 455. This indicates an upside of 26.9%. Analysts Jinesh Joshi and Stuti Beria believe that the company will be a key benefactor of the “expected recovery in business travel, complemented by an exposure to annuity business that acts as a hedge to the deeply cyclical hospitality industry.”

    The analysts add that the firm’s hotel portfolio is situated in strategic locations of major cities, where threat of new room supply is low and entry barriers are high. Also, its affiliation with global brands like Marriott and Novotel gives it strong pricing power. They believe these advantages will enable the firm to perform well during the upcycle.

    Joshi and Beria see robust room inventory addition in Pune and Hyderabad and a 2.6X increase in the commercial leasable area driving growth in the coming quarters. They expect Chalet Hotels’ net profit to grow at a CAGR of 68% over FY23-25. 

    1. Indraprastha Gas: BOB Capital Markets assumes coverage of this City Gas Distribution firm with a ‘Buy’ rating and target price of Rs 520, which indicates an upside of 24.1%. Analyst Kirtan Mehta is optimistic about the company’s growth prospects on the back of healthy sales volume growth. He believes this growth will be led by stable demand from Delhi and rising demand from new geographic areas. He wrote, “CNG demand is seeing annual growth of 10% in Delhi, 11-12% in Noida, 15% in Ghaziabad, 20% in Muzaffarnagar, 44% in Kanpur, 48% in Rewari, 29% in Karnal, and 24% in Kaithal as per H1FY23 data.” Most new geographical areas are clocking in more than 20% growth on a low base. 

    Mehta also sees margins stabilising on the back of favourable government policies and higher sales volume. He sees the company’s margins returning to historical average levels on the back of the normalisation of gas purchase costs. The analyst expects the firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 37.7% over FY22-24. 

    1. Axis Bank: Motilal Oswal gives a ‘Buy’ call to this bank with a target price of Rs 1,130, indicating an upside of 19.6%. Analysts Nitin Aggarwal and Yash Agarwal say, “Axis Bank has progressed well over the past few years and has strengthened its balance sheet by making it granular, increasing the mix of retail loans and improving its provisioning coverage ratio.” As a result, the analysts believe the bank’s key metrics, such as loan growth, margins and profitability, have improved. 

    They believe that loan growth has witnessed a healthy recovery with 14-18% growth over the past year and expect sustainable loan growth over the medium term on the back of the bank’s focus on rural and semi-urban markets. They say slippages and credit costs should be under control as asset quality issues are now resolved.  They added, “Axis Bank remains focused on building a stronger, consistent, and sustainable franchise.” 

    1. JK Cement: Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this cement manufacturer with a target price of Rs 3,350. This indicates an upside of 13.5%. The cement company’s arm JK Paints and Coatings is set to acquire a 60% controlling stake in Acro Paints for Rs 153 crore. The remaining 40% will be acquired over 12 months. 

    According to analysts Uttam Kumar Srimal and Shikha Doshi, Acro Paints has a wide product portfolio. They believe that the acquisition will provide an opportunity to foray into construction chemicals and waterproofing products, which have a current market size of Rs 5,000+ crore.

    The company aims to achieve a turnover of Rs 400 crore in the next four years and will incur further capex to augment the paint business. Srimal and Doshi expect the paint business to complement and support the growth of the wall putty business as both wall putty and paint businesses have common attributes and influential networks. The analysts view JK Cement as a long-term prospect.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    30 Dec 2022, 04:31PM
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Poonawalla Fincorp: This NBFC stock rose 11.9% over the past week till Thursday on the back of a healthy long-term business outlook. The Chairman of the firm, Adar Poonawalla, believes the NBFC is well-capitalised to grow its assets under management (AUM) to Rs 50,000 crore in the next five years, say reports. The company also sold its housing finance arm, Poonawalla Housing Finance, for Rs 3,900 crore. The management believes this transaction will improve the company’s efficiency as it will increase resource allocation and focus on core segments like retail and small business financing. The company has been deleveraging over the past few quarters, which enabled it to show up in a screener for companies with declining debt.

    Last year, the company was rocked by serious allegations of insider trading. Its Managing Director, Abhay Bhutada, resigned in September 2021 after SEBI barred him from the equity markets for alleged insider trading activities. He was reinstated in February 2022 and SEBI revoked its order in June.

    After acquiring Magma Group in May 2021, the promoters rejigged its operations and management. They also reduced the number of branches to 115 from 300. This led to the company tightening its underwriting framework and write-off policy. It also focused on increasing collections to improve asset quality. According to Motilal Oswal, these changes have led to an improvement in credit rating, thus allowing the NBFC to reprice its liabilities to lower rates and access diversified sources of debt. Over the past year, the firm’s cost of borrowing has fallen 190 bps, the brokerage added.

    1. Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals: This commodity chemicals company fell 22.4% during the week ending December 23 as the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) imposed a fine of Rs 45 lakh on Naresh Ramniklal Mehta and his wife Pallavi Naresh Mehta for insider trading. Because of this sharp drop in share price, the company’s promoter entity, Robust Marketing Services, pledged 5.4 lakh shares (or 0.46% stake) to top up the pledged shares to Bajaj Finance. Currently, the company’s pledged shares stand at 27.7% and it features in a screener of stocks with high promoter stock pledges.

    After the sharp fall in share price, the stock rose 1% on December 15 as its board of directors approved the demerger of its mining chemicals and fertilisers businesses of Smartchem Technologies into Deepak Mining Services and Mahadhan Farm Technologies. This will be followed by the amalgamation of Smartchem Technologies with Mahadhan Farm Technologies. In reaction, the stock has risen over 10% in the past week.

    Sailesh C Mehta, Chairman & Managing Director of the company, had said, “The proposed corporate restructuring shall considerably help create strong independent business platforms within the larger DFPCL brand umbrella, hence enhancing stakeholders' value over time.” The company features in a screener of stocks with improving return on capital employed (RoCE) over the past two years.

    1. Suven Pharmaceuticals: This pharma company’s share price fell over 4.7% on Monday after private equity investor Advent International agreed to acquire a 50.1% stake in it for Rs 6,313 crore from the Jasti family, the promoters of Suven Pharma. But the deal did not excite investors as the stock fell after the analyst conference call. Reports suggest lack of clarity post-acquisition as one of the reasons for the share price fall. However, the share price has been on an uptrend since October and as a result, the company features in a screener of stocks with strong momentum with their prices above short-, medium- and long-term moving averages.

    Advent has made an offer for an additional 26% of Suven’s shares from public shareholders to comply with Securities and Exchange Board of India’s (SEBI) takeover rules. The promoter stake sale and open offer are priced at Rs 495 per share.

    Advent International has been on an acquisition spree in the Indian pharma space for the past couple of years, starting with the acquisition of RA Chem Pharma in October 2020. After the merger completion, Advent intends to explore the merger of its portfolio company, Cohance Lifesciences, with Suven Pharma to build an end-to-end CDMO (contract development and manufacturing organisation) and merchant API player servicing the pharma and specialty chemical markets. In H1FY23, Suven Pharma derived 52% of its revenue from the CDMO space and 44% from the specialty segment.

    1. Godrej Properties: This realty stock has been in the news almost every other week for buying large land parcels for housing projects. In December, the company bought nearly 103 acres of land in Gurugram and Mumbai. However, investors were not too enthused by these acquisitions and the stock went down 1% in the past week. The stock has been trading nearly 5% down over the month and shows up in a screener of stocks trading below their first support or S1 level.

    So far in FY23, the company has acquired land with a revenue potential of Rs 16,500 crore. This is over and above its guidance of Rs 15,000 crore for FY23. The company’s Executive Chairman, Pirojsha Godrej, says that he is bullish on sales bookings and new land acquisitions, and plans to add more such acquisitions to the bucket by March 2023.

    However, reports suggest that the pace of new launches has been slower in comparison to its peers, and these land acquisitions need to result in better sales or they may affect the debt levels of the company. Jefferies expects Godrej’s debt to be in the range of Rs 300-700 crore for FY23-25. In Q2FY23, Godrej’s net debt stands at Rs 1,365 crore, a rise of 42.8% QoQ. Also, rising interest rates and inflation can affect housing demand in future.

    On the bright side, the company’s Kandivali land acquisition on December 2 shows its improving micro-market selection. The Kandivali project has a revenue potential of Rs 7,000 crore. Trendlyne’s Forecaster also expects Godrej Properties’ operating revenue to grow 37.6% in Q3FY23 from actual operating revenue in Q2FY23. In Q2, it missed the Forecaster estimate by 38.4%.

    1. Mahindra CIE Automotive: This auto parts & equipment stock touched an all-time high of Rs 347.7 on Thursday. The stock is outperforming its sector by 17.6% according to Trendlyne’s relative returns screener. In the past month, the stock rose 18% while rising more than 45.7% in the past six months. Trendlyne scores the company with a durability score of 80 and a momentum score of 70. Durability score indicates strong financials and momentum score talks about the bullish or bearish nature of the stock.

    This comes after the company announced its plans to sell its forgings business in Germany (a wholly owned subsidiary) on December 14. The subsidiary contributed 10% to its consolidated sales but was a loss-making unit. It indicated the challenges faced by its German operations were due to geopolitical conflict and higher energy prices.

    Analysts from ICICI Direct and Motilal Oswal retain their stance on the stock, as the company is making changes in its functioning, and cutting down on loss-making units to improve its profitability. ICICI Direct has increased its target price by 26% to Rs 410. Motilal Oswal also maintains a ‘Buy’ on the stock as it expects new order wins and the current order book will help the stock outperform the domestic auto industry by nearly 10%. The company has a new order pipeline for making certain EV components.

    The company’s current shareholding shows that Mahindra & Mahindra’s stake has reduced to 9.3% from 11.4% earlier. It is no longer a promoter of the company. CIE has a 65.7% stake and is driving the company towards better operational efficiencies. The company overall plans to direct its capex towards India business. It shows up in a screener of companies with low debt.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    29 Dec 2022
    Screener of the week: Top-performing stocks over the past year with high durability score

    Screener of the week: Top-performing stocks over the past year with high durability score

    By Abdullah Shah

    As 2022 comes to an end, we look at financially stocks that gained the most in the year. We use this screener (this is a subscriber screener - get access to this and 500+ others with new year discounts now live on plans).

    The screener finds stocks that have 1) risen over the past year 2) have good Trendlyne durability scores and 3) have high analyst estimates for one-year forward annual revenue growth.

    The screener lists 41 stocks from the Nifty 500 and four from the Nifty 50 index. Major industries in the screener are banks, non-alcoholic beverages, shipping, hotels, and two and three-wheelers. The most notable stocks in the screener are Varun Beverages, Karur Vysya Bank, Great Eastern Shipping, Indian Hotels, Solar Industries India and TVS Motor. 

    Share prices of Karur Vysya Bank and Varun Beverages have increased 140%, the highest among the Nifty 500 stocks in 2022. Karur Vysya Bank’s forecaster estimate for annual revenue growth is at 28.4% YoY, while Varun Beverages is at 46.8% YoY.

    Varun Beverages, the Pepsico franchisee, is planning to focus on the non-beverages segment in the international market. It intends to begin distribution of Lays, Doritos and Cheetos from January 2023 in Morocco. Karur Vysya Bank and Varun Beverages have high Trendlyne durability scores of 60 and 70 respectively.

    Great Eastern Shipping’s share price has also risen 125%. The shipping company’s forecaster estimate for annual revenue growth is impressive, at 68.9% YoY. According to Ventura, the company will benefit from operating leverage from the rise in freight rates, and from the appreciation in the value of its fleet. 

    You can find more screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    27 Dec 2022
    Five analyst picks as India benefits from China plus One

    Five analyst picks as India benefits from China plus One

    By Suhas Reddy
    1. Sheela Foam: ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this foam manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,650. This indicates an upside of 27.4%. Analysts Sanjay Manyal, Hitesh Taunk and Ashwi Bhansali expect the Indian mattresses industry to grow at a CAGR of 12% over FY22-26. They see organised firms like Sheela Foam “gaining market share through new product launches and strong balance sheet conditions”. The analysts are also positive about the company’s plan to capitalise on the China Plus One strategy to increase its exports to US markets. 

    Manyal, Taunk and Bhansali believe the recent order win to supply foam to Indian Railways and the revival in demand for automobiles bode well for the firm’s foam business vertical. The company has planned a capex of Rs 350 crore for the next two years to expand manufacturing capacity by 23%. The analysts anticipate that Sheela Foam’s net profit will grow at a CAGR of 22% over FY22-24.  

    1. NOCIL: Motilal Oswal keeps its ‘Buy’ rating on this specialty chemicals company with a target price of Rs 283, implying an upside of 22.5%. Analysts Swarnendu Bhushan and Rohit Rajendra Thorat believe the company will gain market share in the coming quarters on the back of new product launches and debottlenecking. “NOCIL currently has 5-6% of the global market share in the rubber chemicals space and looks to grow this to a double-digit figure,” they added. The analysts think the company will likely benefit from the China Plus One and Europe Plus One strategies. 

    Bhushan and Thorat write that the management expects the export market to improve, as latex demand has bottomed out. They also expect an improvement in margins on the back of declining commodity costs. The analysts estimate NOCIL’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 16.2% over FY22-24.

    1. Dr. Reddy's Laboratories: Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceutical giant with a target price of Rs 5,460, indicating an upside of 28.5%. Analysts at Sharekhan are positive about the company’s prospects due to robust growth in its US market segment after the launch of gRevlimid in limited quantities. They also write that “the launch will continue to help it grow profitably strong over the next two quarters and continue to gain from the sales of gRevlimid in a limited quantity until FY26''. The firm also launched six new products in the US, they added. 

    The analysts believe Dr. Reddy’s strong product pipeline gives them healthy revenue growth visibility over FY23-25. They add that the company is also banking on the Indian market to drive growth as they plan to launch 15-20 new products. The analysts expect the firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 14.4% over FY22-25.  

    1. Narayana Hrudayalaya: Prabhudas Lilladher maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this multi-speciality hospitals chain with a target price of Rs 920, indicating an upside of 21.5%. Analysts Param Desai and Sanketa Kohale say, “Narayana Hrudayalaya’s profitability across India and Cayman was strong in H1FY23 (up 44% YoY) and we expect this growth momentum to sustain.” 

    Desai and Kohale believe “faster ramp up in the new Cayman unit will be key”. After reopening tourism, Cayman’s business has shown strong growth, and volumes continue to remain healthy. The company’s management is confident of the sustainability of current profitability, and analysts also expect the current quarterly run-rate of $10-12 million EBITDA to sustain.

    The management has guided a capex of Rs 1,000 crore annually in FY23 and FY24. Meanwhile, the analysts say that “the capex spend would be towards its core and high performing regions such as Bangalore, Kolkata and Cayman”, which they say will enhance growth visibility. Desai and Kohale expect an EBITDA CAGR of 22% over FY22-25.

    1. Hindalco Industries: Axis Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ call on this aluminium manufacturer with a target price of Rs 502. This indicates an upside of 13.3%. The production cost of aluminium increased by 20% QoQ in Q2FY23 due to higher energy costs but the management expects ease in coal prices and supply to guide a 2-5% decrease in Q3FY23. The analysts at Axis Direct expect Hindalco’s arm Novelis’ EBITDA per tonne to inch up to $525 by the end of FY23 from $514 in Q2FY23. 

    The management stated that they will pace the growth capex with cash flows to keep net debt/EBITDA within 2.5x at Novelis. The analysts write, “Hindalco is a defensive play backed by stable cash flows and lower operational and financial leverage”. They conclude, “Aluminium is expected to find support from peaking of the US dollar and China easing its Zero Covid policy.”

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline created a screener Consistent financial performers among …
    27 Dec 2022

    Consistent financial performers among Nifty500 companies

    Stocks that have performed consistently and have strong financial health both short and long term, with some technical momentum
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    The Baseline
    23 Dec 2022
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Shyam Metalics and Energy: This metals and mining company’s share price rose over 9% intraday on Wednesday after it announced the acquisition of Mittal Corp, paving its entry into the stainless steel business. However, on Thursday, the stock settled 2.1% lower following weakness in the market.

    With Mittal Corp’s acquisition, Shyam Metalics aims to expand its existing 8.85 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) production capacity to 14.45 MTPA. With the rise in share price in reaction to the news, the company made it into a screener of stocks with RSI indicating price strength. However, looking at longer-term performance, the stock price has lost over 10% year-to-date. This could be due to the company’s net profit falling YoY for the past two quarters.

    Speaking about the Mittal Corp deal, vice-chairman and managing director Brij Bhusan Agarwal said, “The acquisition cost is about Rs 450 crore and it will enable us to foray into stainless steel and special products, such as defence materials.” The management added that the company plans to further invest Rs 7,500 crore over the next five years to meet organic and inorganic growth plans. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates, Shyam Metalics’ capex is expected to rise 43.6% in FY23 to Rs 1,900 crore.

    This metal company comes under “strong performer, under radar” in Trendlyne’s DVM classification. Strong Performer, Under Radar stocks are companies with high durability and valuation scores (above 50-55) and midrange momentum.

    1. Finolex Industries: This plastic products manufacturer rose 15.8% over the past month, outperforming its industry by 12.2% in the same period. This uptrend comes on the back of rising demand for pipes driven by the irrigation, water supply and sanitation segments amid falling commodity prices. The management expects demand across segments to improve in the coming quarters as raw material costs decline. It believes the firm is well positioned to capitalise on the rise in demand, given its backward integration operations. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with improving RoA over the past two years. It also has a consensus recommendation of a ‘Buy’, according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster.

    In Q2FY23, the firm posted a loss of Rs 95.4 crore due to a fall in PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) resin prices against its high-priced inventory of raw materials and finished goods. The management expects margins to be under pressure in Q3FY23 due to high inventory costs. However, it expects to withstand the pressure given its robust balance sheet and positive cash flows. On the other hand, declining raw material costs led to lower pricing in Q2, which drove the rise in demand. The company’s sales volume rose as the pipes & fittings segment’s volume rose 7% YoY and resin sales volume increased 4% YoY.

    The Indian piping industry is expected to benefit from the Centre increasing allocation toward infrastructure development and various water supply schemes, according to reports. The management is optimistic about the demand environment for pipes due to favourable government policies and initiatives. 

    1. Indian Hotels Company: This hotel company fell over 4% in trade on Wednesday and 8.7% in the past week, taking cues from the broader markets. However, Motilal Oswal is bullish on the company and recommends a  ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 390. The brokerage expects Indian Hotels’ new brands Ama Stays, Qmin and Chambers to scale up rapidly and contribute 26% of the company’s operating profits by FY25. The brokerage adds that the strong demand momentum witnessed in FY22 will continue in the next few years, FY23-25E.

    Recently, Puneet Chhatwal, Managing Director and CEO of Indian Hotels, said the company was well poised to deliver stronger growth in H2FY23 and on track to achieving the targets set under its new strategy. The company launched a new strategy called Ahvaan 2025 in May this year. It aims to build a portfolio of 300 hotels and post a  33% EBITDA margin with 35% EBITDA share contribution from new brands and management contracts by FY25-26.

    ICICI Securities is also positive about the company and retained its ‘Add’ rating. It expects demand momentum to sustain in Q3FY23 as well, with strong leisure and business travel. The company, as a result, features in a screener where brokers upgraded recommendations or target prices in the past three months.

    1. Balrampur Chini Mills: This sugar stock surged more than 3.5% in trade on Tuesday after the central government reduced GST on ethanol to 5% from 18%. This move comes as a boost to the government’s target to double ethanol blending with petrol to 20% by the end of 2023. And sugar companies are not complaining.

    Balrampur Chini rose 11% in the past month alone and shows up in a screener of stocks giving consistently high returns for the past five years. The sugar industry rose 6.2% in the past month. The stock is also showing strong momentum and is trading above its short, medium and long-term averages.

    The good news for sugar stocks does not end here. The Centre is mulling the possibility of increasing the export quota for sugar from January 2023. This will boost earnings for sugar companies in the coming quarters. On Monday, Balrampur Chini Mills also announced the commencement of commercial production of industrial alcohol with an additional capacity of 170 kilolitres per day (KLPD) at the Balrampur unit. The total distillation capacity of the company now stands at 1,050 KLPD. Systematix gives a ‘Buy’ recommendation on the stock, betting that the company will improve its sugarcane yield and increase its ethanol capacity.

    The Centre’s production target for sugar is 4.1 crore tonnes in 2022-23, which is a 5% increase from the 2021-22 cycle. However, Reuters reported that India’s output for sugar is likely to fall by 7% in the ongoing marketing cycle (the marketing cycle for sugar begins in October). This is because adverse weather conditions may disrupt sugarcane yield. Low output may affect exports and global sugar prices.

    1. JSW Steel: This metal stock rose more than 30% in trade in the past six months and recovered 42% from its 52-week low. The broader index Nifty Metal also surged 38% in the past six months. Metal stocks have been riding high because of a fall in coking coal prices and the removal of export duty on steel.

    Coking coal prices play an important role here as 85% of demand is met through imports and a reduction signals lower costs for the company. In Q2FY23, raw material costs shot up 92.7% YoY to Rs 23,757 crore and the company reported a net loss of Rs 848 crore.

    JSW Steel also recently finished a capacity expansion project at its Dolvi plant. The expansion plans were announced in Q3FY22 and the company was able to complete the project within a year. Also, the integration of Bhushan Power and Steel Company has proved to be beneficial as JSW Steel’s crude steel production rose 16% YoY to 1.69 MTPA in November. The company further plans to expand its capacity to 37 MTPA by FY25, from its current capacity of 27 MTPA. The stock shows up in a screener of stocks with improving RoA, RoE and RoCE in the past two years.

    All this sounds good for JSW Steel, but risks to growth remain. In recent brokerage calls, Nomura and BOB Caps gave ‘Reduce’ and ‘Hold’ ratings for the stock. BOB Caps reduced its target price by 13% to Rs 650. Analysts believe that capacity expansion may be a good move for the company, but demand needs to improve at an equal pace. Hopefully, as China reopens its economy and scraps the ‘Zero Covid Policy’, industrial activity will improve in the coming months, boosting global demand. However, China’s PMI index fell to 48 in November from 49.2 in October (PMI index below 50 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity), and streets are reportedly deserted across major cities as Covid rips through the population. 

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    22 Dec 2022
    Portfolio X-Ray: Ashish Kacholia has an eye for smallcap and midcap winners

    Portfolio X-Ray: Ashish Kacholia has an eye for smallcap and midcap winners

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    Ashish Kacholia is known in the industry for his skill in picking small and midcap winners. He started his career in Prime Securities, and later moved to Edelweiss. He co-founded Hungama Digital with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and now serves as a board member. He started his own company Lucky Securities in 2003. Kacholia holds a Bachelor's degree in Production Engineering and a Master's in Management Studies. 

    Kacholia primarily invests in small-cap and a few mid-cap companies, and has an uncanny eye for finding potential multibagger stocks.  His net worth in Q2FY23 was Rs 1,772 crore, and he publicly holds stakes in 40 stocks, of which 37 are small-cap companies.

    Best-performing companies in Kacholia’s portfolio are Beta Drugs, Safari Industries (India) and Carysil. The price of Beta Drugs has increased 573.4% since he added it to his portfolio in Q4FY19. He currently owns a 5.7% stake in the pharma company. 

    Kacholia bought stakes in  Safari Industries (India) and Carysil in Q4FY20 and Q3FY16 respectively. Their stock prices have also risen by 328.4% and 276.3%respectively since the purchase. The investor booked profits on Mastek (bought in Q2FY19), Vishnu Chemicals (bought in Q3FY16) and Mold-Tek Packaging (bought in Q1FY18) before cutting his stake to below 1% in Q2FY23, as they started to hurt the portfolio holding value. The prices of these companies rose by 271.6%, 353.4% and 191.9% respectively till Q2FY23, since the time of purchase.

    The worst-performing stocks in Kacholia’s portfolio are IOL Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals and  United Drilling Tools. Their prices have fallen by 52.7% and 41.5%respectively since added to the portfolio in Q3FY21 and Q3FY22. He also cut his stake in Kwality Pharmaceuticals to below 1% in Q2FY23 as its price fell 50.8% by the end of the quarter of purchase. 

    Chemicals, consumer durables, textiles among Kacholia’s favourite sectors

    Kacholia’s diversified portfolio has 16.4% investment in the chemicals and petrochemicals sector, aggregating to Rs 300.7 crore. He has invested 14.9% of his portfolio in consumer durables, 13.9% in textiles, apparel and accessories, and 9.4% in general industrials. While commercial services and supplies and pharmaceuticals and biotechnology amounts to 8.3% each, software and services has 7.8%, and diversified consumer services 5% of his portfolio. The least invested sectors are food, beverages and tobacco, banking and finance, FMCG, realty, and hardware technology and equipment with less than 2% each.

    The marquee investor went on a buying spree and added nine new stocks to his portfolio in Q2FY23. He also increased his holdings in 12 companies during the same period. He reduced his holdings in ten companies, of which five were cut to below 1%. In new additions, he bought 5% of Dudigital Global, 3.3% of D-Link (India) and 2.6% of Agarwal Industrial Corp. He also increased his stakes in Hindware Home Innovation and Ador Welding by 1.3% and 1% respectively. Kacholia cut a 0.3% stake in Genesys International Corp and 0.2% in Safari Industries (India) and reduced holdings in Mastek, Mold-Tek Packaging, Vishnu Chemicals, VRL Logistics and Kwality Pharmaceuticals to below 1%. 

    During the recent quarter, Kacholia bought a 2.1% stake in Raghav Productivity Enhancers on November 4, a 1% stake in Likhitha Infrastructure on November 30 and a 0.8% stake in Aditya Vision on December 9. On December 21, he sold a 0.6% stake in D-Link (India) in a bulk deal.

    Kacholia prefers companies with good fundamentals

    Of the 40 companies that Kacholia holds, only one reported a net loss in Q2FY23. Sastasundar Ventures reported a consolidated net loss of Rs 4.9 crore despite a 60.3% rise in consolidated revenue, while the rest had net profit. 

    During Q2FY23, Best Agrolife reported a net profit of Rs 129.8 crore, indicating an increase of 415.4% YoY, while its revenue rose by 115.9% YoY. Agarwal Industrial Corp, Safari Industries (India) and Barbeque-Nation Hospitality reported a YoY rise in net profit by 257.1%, 144.2% and 142.6% respectively, while their revenue increased by 40.4%, 67% and 40.6%. Kacholia cut his stake in Vishnu Chemicals to below 1%, while its profit grew by 111.2% in Q2FY23. Eleven companies in the portfolio reported a YoY fall in net profit, while three reported a YoY fall in revenue. United Drilling Tools, IOL Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals, Carysil and Vaibhav Global are among the companies that reported a fall in net profit.

    From the portfolio, 22 companies outperformed their respective industries over a year and quarter, and 17 companies outperformed over a month. PCBL, Arvind Fashions and La Opala RG are among the companies that outperformed their industries.  

    Sastasundar Ventures announced the highest basic annual EPS of Rs 222.7, followed by Bharat Bijlee (Rs 98.3), Garware Hi-Tech Films (Rs 72), Agarwal Industrial Corp (Rs 51.1) and Best Agrolife (Rs 46).

    While 21% of the stocks in Kacholia’s holdings, like Barbeque-Nation Hospitality, Best Agrolife, Shaily Engineering Plastics and Safari Industries (India) are currently trading in the PE Buy Zone, 27% are trading in the PE Sell Zone. Companies in the Sell Zone include HLE Glasscoat, Vaibhav Global and Fineotex Chemical. Meanwhile, the PE of seven stocks is above their respective sectors, like HLE Glasscoat, Arvind Fashions, Genesys International Corp, Megastar Foods and Shankara Building Products.

    How volatile is Kacholia’s portfolio?

    Over a year, the beta for 20 stocks in Kacholia’s portfolio is below 1 and 16 are greater than 1. However, 29 stocks have a beta lesser than 1 for a quarter. The average beta of the portfolio for a year is 0.94, whereas it is 0.8 for a quarter. 

    The Beta of Ashish Kacholia’s portfolio is lesser than that of the Nifty 50. Even though the volatility is marginally in line with the benchmark index for a year, it is lower over the quarter. We can conclude that Kacholia, despite his preference for smaller companies, may make safer bets while buying stocks. On the valuation side, he currently holds stocks in both the PE Buy and Sell Zones.  

    Overall, the marquee investor looks for companies with strong fundamentals and have the potential to turn into multibagger stocks. He then tends to hold them for a longer period to book higher profits, and rarely panics during downturns.

    4
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    The Baseline
    22 Dec 2022
    Screener of the week: FII favourites among high scoring DVM stocks

    Screener of the week: FII favourites among high scoring DVM stocks

    By Abdullah Shah

    As 2022 comes to a close, we take a look at high scoring DVM stocks that have seen more than a 0.5% rise in their FII holdings in Q2FY23. This screener lists stocks that FIIs bought in significant numbers, which have high durability and momentum scores along with a decent valuation score. 

    It features 24 stocks from Nifty 500 and two stocks from the Nifty 50 index. Industries like banks, construction & engineering, paper & paper products, utilities: non-electrical and defence dominate the screener. Major stocks featured in the screener are Hindustan Aeronautics, City Union Bank, IIFL Finance, JK Paper and Great Eastern Shipping. 

    City Union Bank saw the highest rise of 3.2% QoQ in its FII holdings. Major contributors to this rise were Kotak Funds India Mid Cap Fund and Bank Muscat India Fund. The largest foreign investor of the company is Smallcap World Fund as it holds 4.9% stake. The stock has a high Trendlyne durability score of 65.

    Great Eastern Shipping’s foreign investor holding increased by 1.9% over the past quarter. City of New York Group Trust bought 1.2% stake in the company. Other major foreign institutional investors of the company are Nalanda India Fund and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority with 7.4% and 2.2% stakes respectively. The stock also has a high Trendlyne durability score of 65.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    20 Dec 2022
    Five analyst picks this week

    Five analyst picks this week

    By Abhiraj Panchal
    1. Rites: Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this construction & engineering company with a target price of Rs 405. This implies an upside of 21.9%. The analysts at the brokerage remain positive about the company due to its strong order book, execution capability, clean balance sheet and attractive valuations. 

    The analysts also expect the firm to be a key beneficiary of the Centre’s push towards increasing infrastructure spending. “Being a leading player in the transport consultancy, Rites is expected to be a significant beneficiary of the Indian Railways’ infrastructure push,” they added. Given the higher capex for railways, the company is aggressively trying to bag new consultancy tenders from the metro and high-speed rail projects. 

    The analysts believe the company’s well-diversified order book of Rs 5,950 crore gives revenue visibility for the next two years. They expect Rites’ net profit to grow at a CAGR of 11.7% over FY22-24.  

    1. Bharat Forge: Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this manufacturer of industrial products with a target price of Rs 1,005. This indicates an upside of 14.2%. Analyst Mansi Lall remains optimistic about the firm’s prospects given its diversification into multiple segments such as defence, aerospace, e-mobility and other industrial verticals. 

    She expects the automotive segment in particular to drive growth as there are “multiple growth levers in the domestic & export automotive segment with the cyclical turnaround in the commercial vehicle industry”. Chip shortages are also expected to ease. 

    Lall sees double-digit growth in high-margin non-auto segments such as aerospace and defence. The company has already bagged export orders for its artillery systems and is expected to win huge orders from the Indian Armed Forces, she added. The analyst sees the firm’s defence revenue rising to Rs 1,000 crore in a few years from the current Rs 300-500 crore. She anticipates Bharat Forge’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 18.7% over FY22-25. 

    1. SBI Cards and Payment Services: Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this credit card and payment solutions provider with a target price of Rs 1,000. This indicates an upside of 26.4%. Analysts Nitin Aggarwal and Yash Agarwal arranged an interactive session with Rama Mohan Rao Amara, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of SBI Cards. From this discussion, the analysts understood that the mix of EMI loans has increased and the revolver mix has moderated, while it has been increasing on an absolute basis.

    The analysts said, “SBI Cards has been reporting a modest performance with healthy spends momentum, while higher credit cost and lower margins are dragging earnings.” They expect the revolver mix to increase gradually as spends mature, while near-term margins may continue to remain under pressure as borrowing cost increases further. Aggarwal and Agarwal believe that growth in spends is likely to stay healthy, aiding overall loan growth. They expect a profit CAGR of 41% for FY22-24.

    1. Dalmia Bharat: ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this cement manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,906, indicating an upside of 19.7%. Dalmia Bharat’s arm, Dalmia Cement (Bharat), recently acquired clinker, cement and power plants from Jaiprakash Associates at a capital cost of $73 per tonne (replacement cost of the cement asset is currently at $115-120 per tonne). Analyst Harsh Mittal remains optimistic about the company due to the asset acquisition at a competitive price. 

    Mittal believes that this acquisition will help the cement manufacturer strengthen its presence in Central India. He adds that Dalmia Bharat aims to be a pan-India cement company with a capacity of 75 metric tonnes per annum by FY27 and 110?130 metric tonnes per annum by FY31. The analyst said, “We await the completion of the deal before factoring in the acquired capacity. However, we increase our realisation growth assumption for FY23/FY24, given the healthy price hikes in East and South India during Q3FY23.” 

    1. Carysil: Edelweiss initiates coverage on this small-cap sink and kitchen appliances manufacturer and gives it a ‘Buy’ call with a target price of Rs 784. This indicates an upside of 56.8%. According to the analysts at Edelweiss, Carysil doubled its quartz and steel sink capacity to meet increasing demand. “We believe strategic partnerships with large-scale retailers would sustain the revenue growth momentum in exports,” they added.

    The analysts believe that strong industry tailwinds, high home-improvement spending and demand for aesthetically appealing products globally would continue to drive growth. They expect Carysil’s earnings per share to record a 20% CAGR over FY22-25, led by capacity addition, improved utilisation in quartz/steel sinks and increased penetration in domestic and international markets.  

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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