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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    01 Feb 2025
    Budget 2025: Huge income tax relief, custom duty cuts, rural economy boost

    Budget 2025: Huge income tax relief, custom duty cuts, rural economy boost

    • A pretty big announcement: Sitharaman says no tax on income up to 12 lakh rupees per annum. Woo!
    • Insurance has got a boost from Sitharaman's announcement of 100% foreign ownership for some firms.
    • Hardware tech players are the biggest sector gainers so far, thanks to custom duty cuts in key components.
    • A boost for India's electronic assembly plants that have been so much in the news the past year. Basic customs duty reduction across electronic products. Dixon Technologies, a key player here, is rising.
    • A much needed boost for trade: India’s model bilateral investment treaty will be updated and revamped, Sitharaman says. 
    • Twitter is talking about the Budget's Bihar focus. 

    #Bihar#Budget2025pic.twitter.com/tQDnSsTIDe

    — Finance Memes (@Qid_Memez) February 1, 2025
    • Indian cities are in crisis, with overwhelmed infrastructure, half-completed flyovers and traffic snarls. Sitharaman announces the 1 trillion rupee “Urban Challenge Fund” for municipalities who come up with projects and financing. They can get 25% federal support. But that is a very small fix in the ongoing problems for cities in governance and finance access.
    • The "Deepseek Effect": Centre of excellence in Artificial Intelligence will be set up for Rs 100 crore. However, qualified talent access across key areas like AI and aviation is a concern. 
    • Air travel in focus: Sitharaman announces that 120 new destinations will be connected for air travel. This is in the midst of a boom in flight travel in the last five years across India, as airport building has surged. New airports will connect 40 million additional passengers in the next 10 years.
    • Textile stocks are rising after Sitharaman announces five year mission for cotton farmers. 
    • An announcement for gig workers at Swiggy, Blinkit, etc: They will get health coverage from the government. 
    • Joke circulating on whatsapp groups yesterday. Income tax announcements are awaited.
    • It's Adani and Ambani who are regularly present in Indian business news, but Sitharaman announces a boost for medium and small businesses. There are over 1 crore MSMEs employing 7.5 crore people. She says, "For micro and small enterprises, credit cover will be increased from Rs 5 crore to Rs 10 crore. For startups, it will be increased to Rs 10 crore. For well-run exporter MSME, term loans of Rs 20 crore will be granted".
    • Amara Raja Energy was already seeing some momentum at market open. The stock is rising as Sitharaman announces focus on EV batteries and solar. 
    • Sitharaman announces loans for 500,000 female entrepreneurs from so-called backward classes. This is expected to drive momentum for self-help groups and smaller entrepreneurs,
    • Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Budget is focusing on farmers and the rural economy, suggesting that the government is focused on bringing down food inflation and addressing rural distress. Her announcements include: 
      • Nafed and NCCF to drive procurement of pulses over the next four years
      • PM Dhan Dhyan Krishi Yojan to benefit, Sitharaman says, over 1.7 crore farmers
      • Agriculture stocks are surging in response
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    The Baseline
    31 Jan 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 31, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 31, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. TVS Motor Company:

    Thistwo-wheeler manufacturer has surged around 7% in the past week after announcing its Q3 results, driven by a 57% YoY rise in electric scooter sales. Cost control measures and stable raw materials prices helped the EBITDA margin improve by 70 bps YoY to a new high of 11.9%.

    TVS reported an operating revenue growth of 10.3% YoY to Rs 9,097 crore in Q3, with net profit growth of 4.2% YoY to Rs 566 crore. While revenue was in line withForecaster estimates, net profit missed by 13%. Besides TVS Credit, rising losses from its subsidiaries, such as Norton Motorcycles and an e-bicycle company, contributed to the shortfall. A flat average selling price of around Rs 75,000, due to minimal price hikes during Q3, also impacted profitability.

    TVSrecorded a 10.1% increase in overall sales on a YoY basis, reaching 12.1 lakh units in Q3, driven by a 22% rise in scooter sales. This surge was supported by the rising market share of scooters (both ICE & electric) in the two-wheeler category, which increased to 40% from 31% a year ago.

    Regarding the demand outlook, CEO K N Radhakrishnansays, “This is the first year I have seen rural (demand) matching or slightly ahead of urban, which is very positive news.” He expects volumes of entry-level 125cc motorcycles and mopeds to improve, driven by a recovery in rural demand supported by high reservoir levels and expectations of a good monsoon this year.

    Axis Securitiesmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating on TVS as sales volume outperformed that of the industry in Q3. The brokerage expects volumes to rise by 13% in FY25, driven by a rural demand recovery and an expanded international presence. It also anticipates the margin to improve as the company recognises PLI benefits from Q4.

    2. Suzlon Energy:

    This heavy electrical equipment hit its 5% upper circuit for three consecutive sessions following the announcement of its Q3FY25 results on January 29. The company’s revenue surged 90.7% YoY to Rs 2,969 crore, driven by higher sales from the WTG (wind turbine generators) and foundry & forging segments. EBITDA margin rose by 90 bps to 16.8% in Q3, while net profit grew 90% to Rs 387 crore. Both revenue and net profit surpassed Trendlyne Forecaster estimates.

    As of January 2024, Suzlon’s order book stood at 5.5 GW. The WTG segment, which contributes the majority of revenue, saw its contribution margin rise by 330 bps YoY to 22.7% in 9MFY25. JP Chalasani, the Group CEO, said, “We’ve always maintained our contribution margin in the high teens. For FY25 and beyond, we expect a steady consolidated margin of slightly over 20%.”

    The company has upgraded its Nacelle manufacturing facilities in Daman and Puducherry, increasing its annual production capacity by 45.2% to 4.5 GW. To expand operations further, it is adding two more production lines at its Ratlam and Jaisalmer facilities. Chalasani expects an annual capex of over Rs 350 crore in the next 2-3 years. 

    Suzlon’s Vice-Chairman and Co-Founder, Girish Tanti, shared his expectations for Budget 2025, emphasising the need for “policy alignment” between wind and solar energy to support industry growth while keeping tariff costs low. He projects India’s wind energy capacity additions at 3.5-4 GW this year, with further growth expected at a CAGR of 42%, reaching 10 GW by FY28.

    Post results, Nuvama upgraded its rating to ‘Buy’ as it expects the firm’s installed capacity to increase by 4.2% to 1.5 GW. It also highlighted the positive impact of Suzlon's acquisition of Renom Energy Services as a key factor driving the company's performance.

    3. United Spirits:

    This breweries & distilleries company has declined by 5.1% over the past week following its Q3FY25 results announcement. The company’s revenue grew 14.4% YoY to Rs 3,433 crore for the quarter but missed Trendlyne's Forecaster estimates by 1.2%. Net profit declined 4.3% YoY to Rs 335 crore due to higher excise duty, employee benefits and depreciation expenses, as well as a Rs 65 crore exceptional charge related to severance costs for a closed unit. EBITDA margins stood at 17.1% during the quarter.

    During the quarter, revenue growth was led by robust consumer demand in the peak festive season and a rapid scale-up in Andhra Pradesh. The company resumed sales in Andhra Pradesh in Q3 after five years, as the state's new liquor policy permitted private retailers to sell spirits. Andhra Pradesh contributed 6.1% to overall revenue in Q3. Hina Nagarajan, the MD and CEO, said, “We anticipate stable demand going forward and remain cautiously optimistic on the demand environment in the short term.” 

    Meanwhile, the Prestige & Above (P&A) segment (which constitutes 90% of the revenue mix) was up 16% YoY, while the Popular segment grew by 10% YoY. 

    The management reiterated its guidance for double-digit revenue growth for its prestige products in FY25, driven by Andhra Pradesh's market recovery and ongoing innovation across the portfolio. United Spirits expanded its portfolio with the launch of X Series, under McDowell's brand, in five key markets, including Maharashtra, Goa, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. The X Series operates in the upper prestige price segment and consists of a premium range of Vodka, Rum, and Gin (priced above Rs 1,000/750 ml). 

    Following the company’s results, Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Neutral’ rating as it expects liquor policies in many states to become more favourable, driving consumer upgrades and increased consumption frequency. It believes United Spirits is well-positioned to capitalise on this large opportunity. Motilal Oswal expects the company’s EBITDA margins to sustain between 17-17.5%.

    4. Laurus Labs:

    This pharmaceutical company rose by 2% on January 24th after announcing its Q3FY25 results. During the quarter, its net profit rose 298.9% YoY to Rs 92.3 crore due to strong 89% YoY growth in Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) sales. Revenue was up 18.9% YoY at Rs 1,424.5 crore. The company’s revenue beat Forecaster estimates by 7.7%, while net profit beat estimates by 43.1%. It appears on screener for stocks with strong momentum.

    The company witnessed strong growth in Q3 on the back of robust demand in its CDMO business. Satyanarayana Chava, Founder & CEO, added, “The CDMO division achieved its highest quarterly sales in the last 8 quarters, nearing Rs 400 crore. Over the first 9 months, the division saw a 33% growth, driven by a ramp up in new assets. The portfolio is shifting towards high-value complex small molecules, and we maintain a positive outlook for the small molecule CDMO industry. We remain committed to our 2025 growth targets, backed by scheduled project deliveries in Q4.”

    On future guidance, Mr. Chava said, "We remain confident in our commitment from the last call to achieve an EBITDA close to 20% for FY25 from the current level of 16.6%, as the growth prospects for Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) are expected to improve, driven by new products."

    The company has entered into a definitive agreement to secure Rs 120 crore in equity investment from Eight Roads Ventures and F-Prime Capital. Additionally, it is investing Rs 40 crore in the joint venture, which is developing a 400KL fermentation facility in Vizag, set to be completed by the end of CY26.

    Motilal Oswal maintains a 'Buy' rating on Laurus Labs as it expects the company’s CDMO business to grow at a 26% CAGR over FY25-27, reaching Rs 2,420 crore, and the non-Antiretroviral (ARV) segment sales to grow at a 29% CAGR over FY25-27, reaching Rs 2,260 crore. The brokerage notes that after six quarters of earnings decline, the company has shown strong financial improvement, estimating a robust 71% earnings CAGR over FY25-27.

    5. Macrotech Developers:

    Thisrealty company rose 11.3% over the past week following the announcement of its Q3results. Its net profit surged 87.6% YoY to Rs 944.4 crore, helped by a tax refund of Rs 228.3 crore, beating forecaster estimates by 47.1%. Revenue grew 40.1% YoY to Rs 4,146.6 crore, driven by an improvement in presales and collections. 

    Macrotech Developers (Lodha)achieved quarterly pre-sales of Rs 4,510 crore, a 32% YoY growth, while collections jumped 66% YoY to Rs 4,290 crore. In Q3FY25, the companylaunched its fifth project in Bangalore with a Gross Development Value (GDV) of Rs 2,800 crore. It also introduced 2.7 million square feet (msf) of space in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and Pune. 

    Abhishek Lodha, MD & CEO of Macrotech Developerssaid, “We have now achieved 90% of our full year target for business development, and in spite of heavy investments in land and business development, our debt has come down by over 15%. At the end of this fiscal year, we expect to meet the presales target of Rs 17,500 crore.” Lodhaaims to generate Rs 500 crore in annual rental income by FY26 and Rs 1,500 crore by FY31.

    For the coming quarter, the companyplans to launch 4.3 msf with a GDV of Rs 7,520 crore across locations such as Alibaug, Vikhroli, Palava, Pune, Bangalore, along with new phases of existing projects in the eastern suburbs of MMR. They are expanding their portfolio beyond entry-level and mid-income housing to include luxury and premium residences. However, the focus will remain on mid-income housing that comprises 60% of their sales.

    Motilal Oswalmaintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this stock with a target price of Rs 1,568. The brokerage expects pre-sales to grow at a 21% CAGR over FY25-26. They estimate revenue of Rs 4,270 crore, EBITDA of Rs 890 crore, and net profit of Rs 330 crore for Q4FY25, driven by upcoming launches and inventory with a ~Rs 7,520 crore GDV.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    30 Jan 2025
    RBI tries to not drop the icecream | Screener: Stocks with FIIs and MFs increasing shareholding

    RBI tries to not drop the icecream | Screener: Stocks with FIIs and MFs increasing shareholding

    By Swapnil Karkare

    India's current Central Bank problem is a bit like the challenge Indian kids face. Indian parents want you to be all three things at once - super smart, good-looking, and socially savvy, ready to jump up and make conversation when neighbour aunty drops in.

    This trinity of skills is of course, near-impossible to achieve (although said parents will always claim that some distant cousin possesses all three).

    Central banks face a similar problem. They have three goals —keep the currency stable, allow free flow of money across borders, and set interest rates to suit the country’s needs. But they can’t achieve all three at once. Economists call this the ‘impossible trinity.’

    India's RBI has historically focused on free money flows and controlling interest rates, while not trying to stabilize the rupee. But in recent years under Shaktikanta Das, it changed course, and worked hard to keep the rupee’s value stable.

    To do this, the central bank sold dollars and bought rupees, which reduced rupee availabilty and artificially boosted its value. As a result, money flow tightened, even as GDP growth slowed.

    Now, it looks like the RBI is shifting focus back to rupee liquidity, instead of controlling the currency's value. It announced this week that it will inject Rs. 600 billion ($18 billion) into the economy to address the worst cash crunch in a decade.

    Like Indian kids, the RBI must make some hard choices. And it has apparently decided to stop trying to control the value of the rupee, and let it depreciate.

    In this week's Analyticks:

    • A tightrope walk for RBI: Under the new RBI governor, the Central Bank is making different choices
    • Screener: Stocks where foreign investors and mutual funds have increased their stake

    A strong dollar is a challenge for emerging markets

    The US economy post-Covid has been stronger than other developed markets, with solid economic growth and low unemployment.But its interest rates have stayed high due to inflation.

    High rates have drawn global investors, who are piling money into US assets. The dollar as a result has strengthened steadily in the last few years.

    A strong dollar has been tough on emerging markets

    Over the past year, emerging market (EM) currencies took a huge hit. The Egyptian Pound lost more than half its value over the last year. Latin American countries such as Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil saw their currencies depreciate 18-30%, while Polish, Thai and Vietnamese currencies depreciated the least (<2%). Following Trump's victory, EM currencies fell by an average of 2-4%.

    When currencies depreciate, imports such as fuel, get expensive, straining budgets. As these countries slip into the red, foreign investors lose confidence and start selling their investments. This further weakens these currencies.

    The RBI kept battling a strong dollar

    Former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian, Josh Felman, and Abhishek Anand say that the RBI changed how it managed the rupee in the last two years. The data for the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) Index, a measure of the rupee’s intrinsic value, showed that before 2022, the rupee moved a lot due to events like the global financial crisis (2008), the taper tantrum (2013), and crises in Turkey and the IL&FS default (2018).

    But since 2022, the rupee became very stable. They compare this stability to the flat cricket pitch at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. This suggests that the RBI has kept the rupee steady, almost pegging it to the US dollar.

    In 2025, 2013 still haunts policymakers

    Whenever EM currencies take a hit, the scars of the 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum’ resurface for policymakers.

    After the 2008 global financial crisis, the US Fed started buying government and corporate bonds through a program called quantitative easing (QE). The objective was simple: By buying bonds, money would flow into the system and lower interest rates.

    In May 2013, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that the Fed might reduce its bond purchases sooner than expected due to improving economic conditions. This meant that the dollar would likely strengthen, and US interest rates would rise.

    The dollar didn't surge, but EM currencies depreciated sharply. Countries like Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey, known at the time as the ‘Fragile Five’, saw their currencies drop by over 10% in just four months. The Fragile Five had high current account deficits (spending more on imports than they earned from exports) and heavy reliance on foreign investments.

    The Indian rupee was hit the hardest, depreciating by 22%, worsening the current account deficit, pushing inflation to double digits, and slowing economic growth. 

    But EMs, including India, took this as a wake-up call. Today, they are better prepared, as highlighted by Nomura.


    Emerging Markets rise to the dollar challenge

    The past few months have been challenging for many EM central banks, but they've acted quickly. Indonesia and Malaysia for example, asked commodity and state firms to bring overseas earnings back into their countries to boost their currencies. South Korea sold won debt for the first time in 21 years to defend its currency and increase forex reserves. China limited yuan lending in Hong Kong to support its value. Brazil's central bank intervened by selling $21.57 billion in the spot market in December, along with currency swaps and spot auctions. It's hard to say for sure, but there's hope that these measures could help steady these economies.

    And what is the RBI doing?

    Back home, RBI sold a record $81 billion from its reserves since October 2024 as it worked to keep the value of the Indian rupee up. India’s forex reserves stood at $705 billion on September 27, but is now down to $624 billion.

    Since December, the RBI started course-correcting. To address the rising cash crunch in the economy, it cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to allow banks to lend more, and has conducted variable rate repo (VRR) auctions so that banks can borrow more funds from the RBI.

    These measures will pour more money into the system. And when there’s more cash in the system, banks are more willing to offer loans at lower rates. Analysts also believe that this liquidity push means that RBI is getting ready to cut the interest rate.

    2025 is a different story from 2013

    Now that RBI has stopped defending the rupee, the market will likely decide the rupee's value. The rupee could fall as far as 90-95 against the dollar, according to analysts.

    While a falling rupee may make imports more expensive and raise inflation, its a challenge the central bank can handle. Fortunately, India is far healthier in 2025 compared to 2013.


    Screener: Stocks where foreign investors and mutual funds have increased their stake

    FIIs and MFs increase their holdings in banks and NBFCs

    As the shareholding data for Q3FY25 comes in, we look at stocks where foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and mutual funds (MFs) bought the most stakes. This screener shows stocks with the highest FII and MF holding increases in the latest quarter. 

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the banking, capital markets, IT consulting & software, and auto parts & equipment industries. Major stocks featured in the screener are Home First Finance, IDFC First Bank, GE Vernova T&D India, PNB Housing Finance, BSE, Godrej Properties, DOMS Industries, and Amber Enterprises. 

    Home First Finance features in the screener with the highest QoQ growth of 12.3 percentage points in FII holding in Q3FY25, while its MF holding increased by 4.9 percentage points QoQ. This comes after the housing finance company’s promoters, Aether (Mauritius) and True North Fund V LLP, sold a combined 9% stake in the company through the open market in December 2024. Home First's stock price has declined 1.2% over the past year. 

    Notable FIIs that bought the sold shares are Smallcap World Fund Inc (bought a 2.9% stake), Government Pension Fund Global (bought a 2.6% stake), and Goldman Sachs Funds - Goldman Sachs India Equity (bought a 1% stake). The largest MF buyers include Hdfc Mutual Fund - Hdfc Banking And Financial Serv (bought a 4.1% stake).

    GE Vernova T&D India also appears in the screener after FIIs and MFs increased their stake in the company by 5.2 percentage points QoQ and 2.7 percentage points QoQ, respectively in Q3FY25. This industrial machinery stock’s promoters sold an 8.4% stake through an offer for sale (OFS) worth Rs 3,324.9 crore at a floor price of Rs 1,550 per share. This stake sale was likely a profit booking by the promoters after its stock price surged by 152.8% over the past year.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    28 Jan 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 28, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 28, 2025

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Persistent Systems:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this IT consulting firm with a target price of Rs 7,600. This indicates an upside potential of 28.6%. In Q3FY25, the company reported a net profit growth of 14.8% QoQ to Rs 373 crore. Revenue rose 5.5% QoQ to Rs 3,104.9 crore, led by improvements in the banking, financial services & insurance (BFSI), healthcare & life sciences, and hi-tech segments. 

    Analysts Abhishek Pathak, Keval Bhagat, and Tushar Dhonde highlight that the company targets a revenue of $2 billion (~Rs 17,302 crore) by FY27 and $5 billion (~Rs 43,255 crore) by FY31. To achieve this, it plans to strengthen relationships with its top 100 clients, diversify into new areas like private equity, and develop 12-15 growth engines within three main verticals.

    Pathak, Bhagat, and Dhonde expect a growth of 24.2% YoY in revenue, 27.3% YoY in EBIT, and 22.9% YoY in net profit for Q4FY25, with BFSI and Hi-Tech to be the fastest-growing sectors. They also expect a CAGR of 20.1% in sales and 23.4% in net profit over FY25-27.

    2. V2 Retail:

    Edelweiss maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this department stores company with a target price of Rs 2,230. This indicates an upside potential of 25%. In Q3FY25 the company’s net profit rose 1.2X YoY to Rs 51.2 crore. Revenue grew 58.1% YoY to Rs 590.9 crore, driven by higher same-store sales growth and footprint expansion.

    The company added 21 new outlets in the quarter, bringing its total store count to 160 as of Q3. Its retail footprint now covers approximately 17.2 lakh sq ft, a 51% YoY growth. Analyst Palash Kawale highlights that the management plans to open 20-25 more stores in Q4 which will take its FY25 store additions to around 70. He mentions that the company aims to be a national level value retail player in the next 4-5 years, with plans to add 100 stores in FY26 and focusing 80% of these additions in existing states.

    Kawale expects a CAGR of 44.1% in revenue, 54.3% in revenue and 82.1% in net profit over FY25-27 on aggressive store additions, reaching 282 stores by FY27.

    3. Polycab India:

    BOB Capital Markets upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this electrical equipment company with a target price of Rs 8,090. This indicates an upside potential of 42.6%. In Q3FY25 its net profit grew by 10.8% YoY to Rs 457.6 crore. Revenue rose 20.4% YoY to Rs 5,226.1 crore, driven by growth in wires & cables, and fast-moving electrical goods (FMEG). 

    Analyst Arshia Khosla points out that the international business saw a 62% YoY growth, contributing 8.3% to the company’s overall revenue. He notes that the company has introduced project Spring, which sets targets for FY30. These include growing its wires and cables business 1.5X faster than the industry and achieving domestic EBITDA margins of 11-13%. Additionally, it aims to expand international business share to 10% of total sales, helped by capital expenditure of Rs 6,000-8,000 crore over five years.

    Khosla expects revenue to grow at a CAGR of 18.2% and net profit at 22.6% from FY25-27. The stock is in the PE Sell Zone, currently trading above its historical PE.

    4. Karur Vysya Bank:

    Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 325, indicating a potential upside of 44.5%. In Q3FY25, Karur Vysya Bank (KVB) reported a credit growth of 14.6% YoY, driven by growth across most segments. However, its corporate loan book declined by ~5% due to planned reductions in low-yielding loans. Net interest margin (NIM) fell by 29 bps to 4%, mainly due to slower growth in high-yield segments like personal loans (PL), vehicle finance (VF), and microfinance (MFI), along with higher cost of funds (CoF).

    KVB’s gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio improved by 75 bps YoY to 0.8%, thanks to lower gross slippages, higher write-offs, and better recoveries. Analysts Anand Dama, Nikhil Vaishnav, and Kunaal N highlighted that the bank’s MFI book of Rs 350 crore is mostly in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, and has not seen any significant decline in quality. Additionally, the bank is setting aside funds to manage any potential risks to its assets, with a contingency buffer of Rs 100 crore and floating provisions of Rs 75 crore.

    KVB is in the PE Buy Zone, currently trading below its historical PE. Dama, Vaishnav, and Kunaal expect the bank to maintain a return on assets (RoA) of 1.7% and a return on equity (RoE) of 17-18% over FY25-27.

    5. Dalmia Bharat:

    Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this cement products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 2,000. This indicates a potential upside of 10.3%. The company's performance in Q3FY25 was affected by a 2% YoY decline in volume, leading to a 540 bps drop in its EBITDA margin. 

    However, the management expects Dalmia’s cement grinding capacity to increase to 49.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by FY25, up from the current 46.6, which should support volume growth. Analysts Uttam Srimal and Shikha Doshi say, “We expect the company to achieve a 7.5% CAGR in volume growth over FY25-26.”

    Dalmia Bharat highlighted that cement prices remained steady in Q3, with its management expecting a slight hike in Q4FY25. However, they ruled out any significant price increases due to heightened competition. To address performance declines, the company aims to reduce costs by Rs 150-200 per tonne over the next two years by improving operating efficiency.

    Srimal and Doshi are optimistic about strong demand from infrastructure development, driven by large-scale projects and affordable housing initiatives. They project revenue to grow at a CAGR of 5% and net profit at 13% over FY25-26.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here

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    The Baseline
    24 Jan 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 24, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 24, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Zomato:

    This internet software & services company has declined by 10.9% over the past week after announcing its Q3FY25 results on January 20. Its net profit declined 57.2% YoY to Rs 59 crore due to investments in expanding Blinkit's store network. The quick commerce (Blinkit) business reported a loss of Rs 103 crore, a 14% increase YoY and nearly doubling QoQ.

    Over the past two quarters, Zomato added 368 new stores (152 in Q2FY25 and 216 in Q3FY25), incurring over Rs 370 crore in capital expenditure. The company's total store count stands at 1,007 as of Q3 FY25. Deepinder Goyal, MD and CEO of the company said, “We will get to our target of 2,000 stores by December 2025, much earlier than our previous guidance of December 2026.” This expansion is expected to increase losses due to the ramp-up time for new stores.

    Akshant Goyal, Chief Financial Officer of the company said, “We do expect the investments in Blinkit to go up. And as a result, the losses will go up in the next one or two quarters.” The management expects Blinkit's profitability to improve once the current phase of aggressive store expansion slows down, which is expected after they reach their 2,000-store target in December 2025.

    Despite the lower profitability, Zomato’s revenue grew by 61.3% YoY to Rs 5,657 crore, driven by higher sales across all its businesses. Its food ordering & delivery business saw a growth of 21.6% YoY, its hyperpure (B2B supplies) business rose 94.5% YoY, and its quick commerce (Blinkit) business surged ~1.2X YoY.

    The company’s going-out segment saw a 2.5X YoY growth in revenue. Commenting on this business, Zomato’s senior executive, Rahul Ganjoo said, “We expect this business to grow at more than 40% YoY at least for the next couple of years.”

    Post results, Motilal Oswal reiterated its “Buy” rating on the stock but lowered the target price to Rs 270 from Rs 320. The brokerage attributed this to reduced profitability caused by higher capital expenditures and increased investments in expanding the dark store network amid intense competition. It expects the company to add 4,000 stores between FY25-30 and achieve a revenue CAGR of 53.3% over FY25-27.

    2. Coforge:

    ThisIT consulting & software firm surged over 12% on Thursday following the announcement of its Q3 results. This rise was fueled by CEO Sudhir Singh’sstatement that “They (Verticals at Coforge) are all not just growing, but they're all growing very robustly.” The company also announced theacquisition of a US-based firm Xceltrait for $17.9 million. This will help Coforge expand its services in the property & casualty insurance industry.

    In Q3, the companyreported QoQ revenue growth of 8.4% at Rs 3,318 crore, with net income up 5% at Rs 268 crore. Revenue beatForecaster estimates by 3.5%, while net profit missed estimates marginally. The firm signed four large deals (over $5 million) in Q3, with a total order intake of $501 million. EBITDA improved by 122 bps sequentially, driven by the improvement in operating efficiency of Cigniti Technologies (Coforge took over operations in July last year).

    Coforgederives 56% of its revenue from the Americas, around 34% from Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) and the rest from other regions. Of its total revenue, around 45% comes from services in banking, finance & insurance. With easing interest rates in the US, the firm witnessed significant traction in its business from the Americas, resulting in a YoY revenue surge of 69.2% from the region.

    Commenting on the operations of Cigniti Technologies, Singhsaid, “Two quarters post-acquisition, EBITDA margin for Cigniti has improved from 12% (in Q1) to 17.3% this quarter, while its revenue growth is also shaping up strongly.” He also highlighted the consolidated revenue growth of 60% over the past two years, reaching $1.6 billion, thanks to the successful integration of Cigniti.

    Singh pointed to a YoY surge of over 40% in the order book executable over the next twelve months, which stood at $1.4 billion at the end of Q3. He expressed confidence in achieving $2 billion in revenue in the medium term, owing to the growth in core and emerging verticals along with the increasing adoption of GenAI to optimise existing services.

    3. Shoppers Stop:

    This department stores company has declined by 5.6% over the past week after announcing its Q3FY25 results on January 15. During the quarter, its net profit rose 41.7% YoY to Rs 52.2 crore due to improved margins in private brands. Revenue was up 12.9% YoY at Rs 1,402 crore. The company’s revenue beat Forecaster estimates by 8.5%, while net profit beat estimates by 54.8%. It appears on screener for stocks where mutual funds have increased shareholding in the past month.

    The company’s management noted mixed demand trends in Q3FY25, with strong like-for-like (LFL) growth in October due to the festive season, followed by a weaker November. They launched several brands, including Kiro, Stila, Prada Beauty, and INTUNE, with the fragrances and perfumes segment standing out, growing by 14%. CEO & MD, Kavindra Mishra, said, “We’ve increased our non-apparel share, particularly in the premium category, growing from 64% to 72%. In Beauty, we’ve opened high-end stores at QuestMall Kolkata, Bangalore T2 Airport, and three Armani stores.”

    On future guidance Mr. Kavindra added, “We expect a solid Q4. At the start of my last call, we mentioned that in H2FY25, we would be aiming for around 5% like-for-like (LFL) sales growth, and we will maintain that forecast for the upcoming quarter. I anticipate six stores will open in Q4. For FY26, we expect to open between 12 and 15 new stores.”

    The company's management has highlighted aggressive store expansion plans for its fast fashion brand, Intune aiming to open 90-100 stores in FY26, with a break-even expected by Q3-Q4FY26. However, HDFC Securities believes its performance has been below expectations. The brokerage notes that expansion has paused due to construction restrictions in Delhi NCR. The company closed 4 department stores and 8 beauty stores in Q4, in contrast with the guidance of opening 6 department stores and 26 Intune stores.

    Motilal Oswal has maintained Shoppers Stop at a ‘Neutral’ rating and raised the target price to Rs 700. The brokerage notes that the company is focusing on the high-growth and margin-accretive Beauty segment. It sees a ~10% EBITDA CAGR for the company over FY25-27.

    4. Pidilite Industries:

    This specialty chemicals company rose over 5.4% on Thursday after announcing its Q3 results. Pidilite Industries’ revenue grew by 8.1% YoY to Rs 3,424.7 crore. The company's net profit increased to Rs 552.4 crore for Q3FY25, an 8.2% YoY rise. Revenue exceeded Trendlyne's forecaster estimates by 0.7%, though net profit fell short by 4.1%. Despite the profit miss, the stock gained momentum due to revenue growth and stable margins.

    Growth in both the consumer & bazaar (C&B) and B2B segments drove performance. C&B, which accounts for nearly 82% of Pidilite's revenue, posted 6.9% YoY revenue growth to Rs 2,670 crore. The B2B segment delivered a 20.8% YoY surge in revenue, contributing Rs 760 crore. 

    Bharat Puri, Managing Director, stated, “Looking ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic about better demand conditions due to the favorable monsoon and increased construction activities.” He added that despite subdued demand across urban and rural areas, Pidilite reported steady progress. Domestic subsidiaries, including Nina Percept, Fevicol Company, and CIPY Polyurethanes, delivered double-digit revenue growth driven by brands like Fevicol, Dr. Fixit, and M-Seal.

    Noting the Q3 performance, Nuvama Wealth Management kept a 'Buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 3,735, indicating an upside potential of over 28.6%. It is positive on the company's outlook, citing optimism for stronger demand. But Motilal Oswal holds a 'Neutral’ view on the stock. The brokerage highlights that the company’s domestic subsidiaries saw double-digit revenue growth and better EBITDA margins. However, due to global economic uncertainty, inflation, and political instability in some countries, its international subsidiaries saw slow sales growth.

    5. KEI Industries:

    Thiselectrical equipment maker has risen by 3.5% over the past week after announcing itsQ3FY25 results on January 22. During the quarter, net profit grew by 9.4% YoY to Rs 164.8 crore, but missed Trendlyne’sForecaster estimates by 6%. The company’s EBITDA margin contracted by 80 bps to 10.3% due to higher raw material costs, finance costs, and employee expense benefits. The volatility in copper and aluminum prices also impacted margins. 

    Revenue for KEI Industries’ rose by 19.8% YoY to Rs 2,467 crore, beating estimates by 1.2%. During the quarter, the cables segment, which contributes a majority of the revenue, grew by 26% YoY. The company reported export sales of Rs 301 crore for the quarter, a 6% YoY increase. As of December 2024, KEI’s order bookstands at Rs 3,871 crore.

    CEO & MD Amit Gupta highlights that over the last few months, orders for power cables have slowed due to capacity constraints. However, the company has completed a brownfield capacity expansion at Chinchpada, which aims to resolve these constraints and he expects revenue growth of 19-20% in FY26. Gupta added that the market outlook is favourable and will support the company’s growth expectations.

    The company also plans to invest over Rs 800 crore in greenfield expansion for low tension (LTE) and high tension (HT) cables in Sanand, Gujarat. Guptasays, “We began construction in Sanand in March 2024 and will invest an additional Rs 700 crore in FY26 to complete the project.” He expects a volume CAGR of 19-20% post-completion of the project.

    Post results, Edelweissmaintains its ‘Buy’ rating on KEI with a target price of Rs 5,250. This indicates a potential upside of 23.4%. The brokerage believes the cable and wire industry is in a structural upcycle, driven by strong demand across sectors like power, distribution, and solar. KEI's capex investments, strong margins, and healthy balance sheet are expected to boost performance.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    23 Jan 2025
    Chart of the Week: Indian Rupee reaches record low against the US Dollar

    Chart of the Week: Indian Rupee reaches record low against the US Dollar

    By Aditi Priya

    The Indian Rupee (INR) has been under pressure over the last year, facing both global and domestic economic challenges. The rupee has been hit by  the US Fed’s policy moves,  rising crude oil prices and domestic inflation, depreciating sharply.

    A selloff in Indian assets has led this month to the rupee’s biggest drop in two years. It fell 0.6% to a record low of 86.6 against the US dollar on January 13. Domestically, inflation has also put pressure on the rupee by reducing purchasing power.

    With the new RBI Governor at the helm, reduced intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has added to the pressure. 

    Reduced RBI intervention weakens INR

    One of the primary reasons for the recent, sharp decline is the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy shift under its new governor. The RBI, under new governor Sanjay Malhotra, has opted to let the rupee move more freely, and has limited aggressive actions to stabilize the currency. This is a shift from the previous approach by ex–Governor Shaktikanta Das, who kept tight control over the rupee, only allowing gradual changes in its value.

    Shaktikanta Das served as the RBI Governor from December 2018, managing crises like the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and instability in the non-banking financial sector. The RBI, under his governance, worked to  mitigate rupee volatility. To defend the rupee, the RBI intervened aggressively, utilizing over $60 billion of its foreign exchange reserves in November. The RBI also used dollar-rupee swaps to manage rupee liquidity without affecting the exchange rate.

    However, experts including former RBI Deputy Governor Viral Acharya, have emphasized the importance of allowing some currency volatility to encourage private hedging, as the central bank cannot absorb all risks. 

    The IMF also highlighted that excessive interventions have limited rupee movement, and reclassified India’s exchange rate regime as a ‘stabilized arrangement’ from ‘floating.’ Exporters were also impacted by the central bank’s policy of not allowing the rupee to find its natural level versus the dollar.

    Indian Rupee hits record lows, could fall further

    The INR moved from being one of Asia’s best-performing currencies in 2023 and 2024,  to a significant underperformer in the past quarter. Throughout 2024, the rupee depreciated by 2.8%, starting the year at Rs 83.2 and weakening to Rs 85.6 by December. It is down over 1% so far this year.

    Over the last three years, the INR has gradually weakened against the dollar. In January 2022, the exchange rate stood at approximately Rs 74.5 per USD. By January 2025, the INR had depreciated by nearly 16.2% over this period. Several factors contributed to this decline, including the USD’s strength driven by global economic changes, India’s slowing economic growth, and a widening trade deficit. As a major crude oil importer, fluctuations in global oil prices have also hit India’s import costs and the rupee’s value.

    Rupee’s depreciation comes with significant consequences

    When the rupee depreciates, the cost of importing goods rises, leading to higher prices for imported products and raw materials. This increase in import costs can contribute to overall inflation, affecting consumers and businesses alike. 

    Rising inflation due to a weaker rupee can influence RBI’s monetary policy decisions. The RBI might raise interest rates to control inflation, which makes borrowing costlier and could slow down economic growth. On the other hand, if inflation seems under control, the RBI might decide not to change rates. With the rupee's recent drop in value, there’s speculation that planned interest rate cuts might be postponed.

    A weaker rupee can make Indian exports more competitive by reducing their prices in international markets. This price advantage can boost demand for Indian goods abroad, potentially increasing export volumes. However, the benefits may be limited if key export sectors rely heavily on imported raw materials, as the cost of these imports would also rise with a depreciating rupee, offsetting the advantages gained from lower export prices.

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    The Baseline
    22 Jan 2025
    The rise of the rural consumer is changing FMCG | Screener: FMCG stocks outperforming their industry

    The rise of the rural consumer is changing FMCG | Screener: FMCG stocks outperforming their industry

    By Swapnil Karkare

    One evening, instead of absent-mindedly watching something with an audience rating of 4/10 on Netflix, I scrolled through a list of 2024’s top-grossing Indian movies. One thing stood out: three of the top five films were set in rural India. At the top of the list was Pushpa 2, based in a remote Andhra village. In third place was Stree 2, a horror-comedy that takes place in a small Madhya Pradesh town. Devara, the fifth in the list, is again based in an Andhra Pradesh village. 

     Popular culture is mirroring a shift in India’s consumption story. The latest Grameen Bharat Mahotsav 2025 in New Delhi, held earlier this month, couldn't have been better timed. Discussions focused on rural innovation and sustainable farming. Villages and small cities, often seen as passive participants, are playing a larger part in India's growth narrative, and brands are taking note.

    In this week's Analyticks:

    • Rural revival: A recovery in rural India helps FMCG players, amid an urban slowdown
    • Screener: FMCG stocks outperforming their industry

    A rural resurgence amid the urban gloom

    The quarterly earnings season isn't looking great so far, especially for the consumer sector. In Mumbai and Bangalore's high-street shops, you see more salespeople than customers. FMCG companies admit that the reluctant Indian consumer is hurting their balance sheets.

    Dabur expects its revenue to grow in the low single digits. Analysts estimate single-digit revenue growth for HUL, Britannia, and Nestle. Tata Consumer is expected to deliver healthy revenue growth, but faces margin pressures. 

    Mirae Asset Sharekhan projects a weaker overall consumer goods sector for Q3FY25 due to sluggish urban demand, compounded by inflation and fewer job opportunities. This has forced FMCG companies to focus on rural areas, which have been outgrowing cities for the last three quarters. 

    Rural consumers increase their spends

    Most brands rely on small sachet sizes to penetrate the very price-elastic rural markets. But recently, HULobserved that rural consumers who previously purchased Re. 1 sachets of Clinic Plus shampoo for years, have upgraded to Dove’s Rs. 2 sachets. They are also buying Rs. 10 packs of noodles, chocolates, soaps, and detergents instead of the smaller five rupee ones, according to Kantar’s report. Brand and product preferences are changing, indicating lifestyle upgrades.

    Recent income support schemes rolled out by several Indian states like the Ladki Bahin Yojana have also contributed to a decline in consumption inequality.

    The change is beyond FMCG. Government data shows that spending patterns in rural areas are diversifying. There’s a growing interest in convenience and health products, with an increase in the share of processed food (from 9.6% to 9.8%), vegetables (from 5.4% to 6%), and fruits (from 3.7% to 3.9%) in consumption expenditure in 2023-24 compared to 2022-23.


    The attitudes of rural consumers are also changing. Lakshmi Venu, director of TAFE, a farm equipment company, adds, "The knowledge asymmetry that used to exist between urban and rural is virtually gone. With cheap accessible data, today the rural customer has access to all the same information as the urban resident."

    Rising income in non-metros drive luxury goods purchases

    Like villages, consumers in tier II and III cities crave upgrades too. Pradeep Bakshi, Voltas’ Managing Director, notes that as per capita income increases in smaller towns, consumers are spending more on luxuries and durable goods.

    Non-metro cities like Ludhiana, Jaipur, Lucknow and Coimbatore are witnessing increased spending power. Ethos, a luxury watch retailer, has launched boutiques in Kochi, Dehradun and Mangaluru. Tata Cliq Luxury reported a growing demand for brands like Louis Vuitton, Gucci, and Rolex in cities like Nagpur, Ajmer, and Aligarh. Non-metros now account for more than half of Tata Cliq Luxury's sales.

    How are brands responding?

    Brands are reaching non-metro consumers in unconventional ways. One example is the decision to launch Pushpa 2’s Hindi trailer in Patna instead of Mumbai.

    FMCG companies are pushing their network into more villages. Daburhas reached 122,000 villages out of the over 6 lakh villages in India, and ITC has boosted its rural stockist network by 1.3 times in two years. Mahindra Logistics’ innovative ‘Direct to Kirana’ model has helped a leading multinational expand its market reach by 30% in non-metro cities. Even Durex is getting in on the action, cleverly targeting rural markets with premium products in smaller, pocket-friendly packs.

    Smaller cities are making their online presence felt, outperforming metros in data consumption. Users in these cities are consuming 38–42 GB per capita per month, compared to Delhi and Mumbai’s 30–34 GB, and streaming platforms and the digital ecosystem are benefiting. Netflix and Amazon are investing in content delivery networks in cities such as Pune, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, and Jaipur.

    Local and blue-collar influencers such as Siraj Bachchan, a mimicry artist, Ankit Baiyanpuria, a Sonipat-based fitness creator, Rajesh Rawani, a truck driver, Santosh Jadhav from Sangli, and Pawan Bisnoi, an electrician-cum-mason from Fatehabad, are becoming prominent. They drive engagement at a fraction of the cost of traditional campaigns. Brands like Swiggy, Asian Paints, True Elements, and Jindal Stainless are collaborating with them, to connect with audiences in ways that big celebrities often can’t.

    A structural improvement in rural consumption?

    The government data shows that monthly spending (including social security benefits) in villages has surged 10% YoY, as against 8.5% YoY in cities, during the August 2023-July 2024 period. The gap between rural and urban spending has narrowed. In 2011-12, urban spending was 84% higher than rural. It’s down to 67% in 2023-24. This signals a more balanced economic landscape. Rural consumption growth has recently outpaced urban across most income categories. 

    It's time to dig deeper

    Rima Bijapurkar, in her book "Liliput Land," challenges the traditional classification of consumers as just urban and rural. She points out that nearly 50% of India’s wealthiest households, reside in rural areas, and run agricultural businesses — busting the myth that wealth is concentrated in metros.

    To truly understand the Indian consumer, Bijapurkar argues for more granular data: insights into income patterns, category-wise GST data, and comprehensive rural surveys. Without this, brands risk oversimplifying a complex and evolving market.

    Of course, one cannot ignore the looming slowdown in the cities. As the government prepares the budget, all eyes are on how it balances the needs of urban and rural residents, and introduces much needed reforms in ease of doing business and in taxation, that have burdened urban India.


    Screener: FMCG stocks outperforming their industries in price change and revenue YoY growthr

    Packaged goods & personal products stocks have high quarter change and revenue growth

    With the Indian markets undergoing a correction, we examine the performance of FMCG stocks over the past quarter. FMCG stocks are classified as defensive stocks, which provide relatively consistent returns and stable earnings regardless of the overall state of the stock market. This screener shows FMCG stocks outperforming their industries in the past quarter and quarterly revenue growth.

    Major stocks appearing in the screener are CIAN Agro Industries & Infrastructure, Polo Queen Industrial & Fintech, Galaxy Cloud Kitchens, Radix Industries (India), Hipolin, Gillette India, Future Consumer, and Gokul Agro Resources. 

    CIAN Agro Industries & Infrastructure features in the screener with the highest YoY revenue growth of 452.5% to Rs 126.4 crore in Q2FY25, outperforming the edible oils industry’s average revenue growth by 439 percentage points. This helped the stock price surge by 126.2% over the past three months, outperforming the industry by 127.1 percentage points. The company’s revenue surged on the back of an increase in the agro and infrastructure divisions. 

    Gillette India is the only large-cap stock in the screener after outperforming the personal products industry price change by 20 percentage points after growing by 8.5% over the past quarter. The company’s revenue grew by 17.1% YoY to Rs 788.9 crore in Q2FY25, beating its industry average revenue growth by 14.8 percentage points. The company’s revenue increased, driven by an improvement in the grooming products segment. 

    You can find some popular screeners here.

    Signing off this week,

    The Trendlyne Team

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    The Baseline
    22 Jan 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 22, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 22, 2025

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. REC:

    Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this public sector NBFC with a target price of Rs 530, indicating a potential upside of 11.2%. REC's management plans to double its assets under management (AUM) to Rs 10 lakh crore by 2030, with renewable energy making up about 30% of its portfolio. The company also aims to capture 20% of the market share in the coal-based power plant business. Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya and Pranav Nawale project an AUM growth of ~18% CAGR over FY25-27.

    REC has managed higher risks from state government-backed entities by relying on government guarantees for timely repayments. Its selective lending strategy and efforts to resolve stressed loans have helped improve asset quality. Vaidya and Nawale say, “We expect slippages to stay under control, leading to a gradual improvement in asset quality. With credit costs remaining in check, we anticipate healthy earnings growth of 14% CAGR over FY25-27.”

    The company’s management expects to maintain net interest margins (NIMs) between 3.5-3.8%, with FY25 NIMs estimated at around 3.6%. The analysts believe that while there may be a slight decline in NIMs, low credit costs will offset this, enabling REC to achieve a stable return on assets (RoA) of 2.5-2.6% and return on equity (RoE) of 20-21% in the medium term.

    2. Bharat Electronics:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this defence equipment manufacturer with a target price of Rs 360, indicating an upside potential of 29.1%. Bharat Electronics (BEL) has grown its overall defence market share to 12.8% in FY24 from ~12% in FY23, driven by government focus on defence indigenization. Analysts Teena Virmani, Prerit Jain, and Harsh Tewaney note that the BEL holds nearly 60% market share in the specialized defense electronics segment.

    The analysts highlight BEL’s strong order book of Rs 74,600 crore as of Q2FY25. They also note that the company is expanding its presence through strategic business units and focusing on increasing exports and non-defense projects in its order book. In FY24, the company filed 146 intellectual property rights (IPRs), including 82 patents, in areas like AI, radars, and embedded systems. During the same period, 161 patents were granted, comprising approvals from some of the FY24 filings as well as applications submitted in previous years, bringing the total number of granted patents to 208.

    Virmani, Jain, and Tewaney project order inflows of Rs 25,000 crore, Rs 32,100 crore, and Rs 38,500 crore for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively. They expect a revenue CAGR of 19% and a net profit CAGR of 20% over the FY25-27. However, the firm is in the PE Sell Zone, currently trading above its historical PE.

    3. HCL Technologies:

    Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this IT consulting firm with a target price of Rs 2,180, indicating an upside of 21%. In Q3FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 3.6% QoQ, reaching Rs 29,890 crore, driven by improvements in the software, engineering research and development (ER&D), and services segments. EBIT margin expanded by 90 bps to 19.5%, surpassing analyst estimates of 19.3%. Net profit increased by 8.4% to Rs 4,591 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates marginally by 0.3%.

    HCL Tech's total contract value (TCV) stood at $2,095 million in Q3FY25, marking a 6% QoQ decline. The company’s management noted that the average duration of signed deals has shortened, leading to moderated TCV. While smaller deals are converting faster, larger deals are taking more time. Analysts believe that HCL Tech is well positioned to deliver growth among Tier-1 IT companies in FY25 and beyond, thanks to its diversified offerings and partnerships with hyperscalers like SAP and ServiceNow.

    The company’s share price dropped by 9.3% over the past month and 4.4% during the previous quarter. However, analysts expect the company to continue its growth in the IT services business, which makes up 89% of its total revenue. They forecast a revenue CAGR of 9% and a net profit CAGR of 12% over FY25-27.

    4. HDFC Life Insurance Company:

    KRChoksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this life insurance company with a target price of Rs 820, indicating an upside potential of 31.4%. In Q3FY25, the company reported a 11.6% YoY growth in gross written premium (GWP) to Rs 17,275 crore, driven by higher contributions from individual and group businesses.

    Analyst Dipak Saha mentions that the market share of the company rose by 70 bps to 10.8%. The number of policies sold increased by 15%, outpacing the private sector’s growth of 9%. He notes that the annuity business is expected to grow due to rising awareness of retirement planning and a growing customer base, along with increased demand for guaranteed income products for post-retirement financial security. 

    In Q3FY25, the value of new business (VNB) grew by 9.1%, driven by a solid increase in annualized premium equivalent (APE). The company aims for double-digit APE growth in FY25, supported by strong seasonal demand in the January-March quarter. 

    Saha expects the annuity and protection businesses to see steady growth, supported by increased demand in tier 2 and tier 3 cities. They expect 15.2% CAGR growth in net premiums, 15.9% in VNB, 23.1% in net profit and 13.8% over FY25-27.

    5. Rainbow Childrens Medicare:

    Prabhudas Lilladher initiates coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating on this healthcare facilities company with a target price of Rs 1,785. This indicates an upside potential of 23.7%. Analysts Param Desai and Sanketa Kohale believe that the company leveraged its first-mover advantage to establish itself as a leader in India’s pediatrics market, offering specialized healthcare services.

    As of Q2FY25, Rainbow Childrens Medicare has 1,523 beds operational out of its total capacity of 1,935 beds. The company plans to add over 380 beds between H2FY25 and FY27 by expanding spokes in Bengaluru and establishing regional hubs in Coimbatore and Rajahmundry. Additionally, the board is exploring mergers and acquisitions in Northeast and West India.

    Desai and Kohale project the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 19% over FY25-27, driven by improvements in FY25, new bed additions, and scaling up of recently launched units.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    17 Jan 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 17, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 17, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. L&T Technology Services:

    This IT consulting & software firm surged over 8% on Thursday following the announcement of its Q3 results. Eight large deals secured over the past quarter drove this increase. CEO Amit Chadha further fueled the rise by assuring investors that the company is on track to achieve its $2 billion revenue target in the medium term with an EBIT margin of 17-18%.

    In Q3, the company reported sequential revenue growth of 1.8%, reaching Rs 2,687 crore, while net profit rose by 0.9% to Rs 322 crore. The profit remained flat QoQ, primarily due to wage hikes and one-time costs associated with the Intelliswift acquisition. Although revenue for the quarter aligned with Forecaster estimates, net profit fell short of estimates by 3.1%. 

    LTTS operates across three segments: mobility, sustainability, and technology, with each segment contributing roughly equal revenue. Over the past quarter, the firm won two large deals in mobility. It also secured two new deals in the sustainability segment. Additionally, it announced three deal wins in the technology segment. 

    Regarding future deals, CEO Amit Chadha said, “LTTS is seeing a good number of large deals in the pipeline across all three segments.” He also emphasised that FY26 will outpace FY25 in terms of deal wins. Chadha is confident in the firm's outlook of achieving 10% revenue growth in FY25, including the contribution of Intelliswift.

    Post Q3 results, Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on LTTS. Analysts at Sharekhan expect the firm to witness a higher growth trajectory supported by the Intelliswift acquisition, which opens avenues to service three new sectors: retail, fintech, and healthcare. With a target price of Rs 6,500, the stock has a potential upside of over 20%.

    2. Biocon:

    This biotechnology company has risen by over 6% in the past week and touched a 52-week high of Rs 397.8 today. On January 12th, the company's Malaysian subsidiary received USFDA approval for its insulin units. Motilal Oswal notes that after this approval, all the company’s key biosimilar sites are USFDA-compliant, improving its prospects in the US market. The approval of the Malaysian site opens up commercial opportunities for its ‘B-Aspart’ (synthetic insulin) drug, whose US market size is estimated at $800 million (approximately Rs 6,640 crore).

    The company had reported a net loss and a flat revenue in Q2FY25 due to delayed approvals for the US market and increased financial leverage. However, Trendlyne Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue to rise by 9.2% in Q3FY25. HSBC Securities expects an operational turnaround for Biocon driven by multiple catalysts, including its strong pipeline of biosimilars and a recovery in the generics sector, fueled by high-value launches such as generic GLP-1 products (used for weight loss and diabetes treatment). The company also appears on a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

    Kedar Upadhye, Chief Financial Officer of the company, discussed the high debt situation in the biologics space, “Net debt in Biologics, which was around Rs 10,800 crore, has now decreased by about Rs 410 crore as of September 30th. Capex for the year is expected to be between Rs 750-830 crore, with half allocated to maintenance and the other half to expanding insulin capacity in Malaysia, driven by strong demand and pricing in global markets.” 

    Motilal Oswal has upgraded Biocon to a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 430. The brokerage forecasts a 21% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-27. Given the focus on compliance and the potential business from upcoming products, it has raised the EV/EBITDA multiple for the biologics business to 22x on a 12-month forward basis. Additionally, it notes that timely approval of 'B-Aspart' could offer further upside to biologics sales over FY25-27. It expects Biocon’s potential sales from this product to reach at least $80-100 million (approximately Rs 664 crore to Rs 830 crore).

    3. PCBL Chemical:

    This petro-products maker has declined by 9.8% over the past week after announcing its Q3FY25 results on January 10. During the quarter, its net profit fell 37.1% YoY to Rs 93.1 crore due to higher material and finance costs, employee benefits and other expenses. Revenue was up 21.3% YoY at Rs 2,010 crore. The company’s net profit missed Forecaster estimates by 7.2%, while revenue missed estimates by 2.3%.

    During the December quarter, revenue growth was driven by increased volumes (up 5% YoY at 143,500 MT) and the inclusion of the Aquapharm business. PCBL Chemical acquired Pune-based specialty water chemicals maker Aquapharm Chemicals in January 2024, marking its foray into the global specialty segments including water treatment chemicals and oil & gas chemicals.

    PCBL’s carbon black segment (which contributes to over 81% of the total revenue) grew by 2% YoY during the quarter. Sales growth was slower compared to Q2FY25 (up 21.5% YoY) due to a drop in realizations amid crude oil price fluctuations. Commenting on this, Raj Gupta, CFO of the company said, “Volatility in crude prices has affected our realizations, as our main raw material is derived from crude. Additionally, a change in product mix during the quarter also impacted our performance”. Meanwhile, the power segment declined by 1.5% YoY during the quarter. 

    During Q3FY25, the company commissioned the second and final phase of its 20,000 MTPA (metric tons per annum) specialty chemical capacity at the Mundra Plant in Gujarat, increasing its total installed capacity to 790,000 MTPA. 

    Following PCBL’s results announcement, Nuvama lowered its rating to ‘Hold’ with a target price of Rs 397. The brokerage believes PCBL’s long-term growth prospects look promising with business diversification, but high debt levels and a potential turnaround in Aquapharm remain key factors to monitor.

    4. Anand Rathi Wealth:

    This capital markets company fell 3.5% on January 13 following the announcement of its Q3FY25 results. Anand Rathi Wealth's (ARW) revenue increased by 29.9% YoY to Rs 237 crore, but it missed Trendlyne Forecaster estimates by 2.6%. Net profit grew 33.3% YoY to Rs 77.3 crore for the quarter. The company also declared a 1-for-1 bonus share issue, offering one bonus share for every equity share held.

    The firm’s assets under management (AUM) grew by 38.8% to Rs 76,402 crore. Equity mutual funds (MF) made up 55% of the total AUM, up from 52% in Q3FY24, while debt MF accounted for 5%, down from 9%. The company had initially set an AUM guidance of Rs 72,000 crore for the year, but having exceeded this target, management has revised the guidance to Rs 80,000 crore.

    The company’s MF AUM stands at Rs 45,875 crore, which accounts for 1.37% of the total market, valued at around Rs 30 lakh crore. Deputy CEO, Feroz Aziz mentioned that the company aims to increase its market share to 4%. He outlined that achieving this target relies on two key factors: attracting funds faster than the industry average and ensuring the company’s portfolio outperforms the average equity MF. He highlighted that ARW’s portfolio, consisting of 14 schemes, has outperformed the Nifty by around 7.5-8% this financial year, which should help achieve the target.

    The company added 1,785 new client families over the past year, increasing its total client base to 11,426. While ARW's stock price has declined by 7.3% in the last month, it outperformed its industry by 4%.

    Post results, Motilal Oswal maintains its 'Neutral' rating on the stock. The brokerage projects a revenue and AUM CAGR of 26%, and 28% for PAT over FY25-27, supported by the company’s strong cash flow of Rs 890 crore, a return on equity (RoE) above 40%, and a healthy balance sheet. With a target price of Rs 4,200, the stock has a potential upside of 5.7%.

    5. Angel One:

    This brokerage company has fallen 6.5% over the past week. The stock faced selling pressure after the company reported its lowest quarterly profit increase (8.1% YoY) in Q3FY25 since its 2020 listing, due to stricter regulations in the derivatives market. 

    SEBI introduced new rules in October 2024 that limit retail investor participation in Futures & Options (F&O). These changes included raising the minimum contract size, cutting weekly expiries, requiring upfront premium payments, and stopping popular contracts. Angel One reported a 13% QoQ drop in F&O brokerage to Rs 662.7 crore, with the segment contributing 52.5% to the company’s total revenue in Q3FY25.

    Angel One’s revenue increased by 19.1% YoY to Rs 1,263.8 crore. The company also announced a dividend of Rs 11 per equity share, totaling Rs 99.3 crore. This represents 35.3% of the consolidated net profit for Q3FY25.

    Dinesh Thakkar, Managing Director of Angel One, stated, “Although a few regulations introduced this quarter caused a temporary industry-wide impact, our aggressive client acquisition strategy, along with the normalization of client activity, will fuel renewed growth momentum in the coming quarters.”

    Motilal Oswal lowered its target price while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating. The revised target price of Rs 3,200 suggests a potential upside of 28.2% from the current market price. The brokerage says that Angel One has managed to maintain its profitability by changing its pricing to cover the impact of fee transparency regulations.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    16 Jan 2025

    Chart of the Week: 87 out of 130 industries outperformed the Nifty 50 in 2024

    By Aditi Priya

    2024 was an eventful one for investors. The Nifty 50 and Sensex delivered gains of 8.8% and 8.2%, respectively, while broader markets outperformed. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices rose by more than 20%.

    However, the final quarter gave investors whiplash, with the Nifty 50 declining nearly 12% from its September peak. Disappointing quarter results and high foreign fund outflows in October and November drove markets down. Still, the year ended with positive returns, marking the ninth consecutive year of gains for the Indian equity market. 

    Of the 130 industries tracked on Trendlyne’s industry dashboard, 87 outperformed the Nifty 50 index in 2024. In this Chart of the Week, we highlight the top-performing industries and their major contributors over the past year.

    Manufacturing and industrial sectors see steady growth in 2024

    India's manufacturing and industrial sectors were the stars of 2024. Industries like heavy electrical equipment, consumer electronics, industrial machinery, and other electrical equipment rose over 70% in the past year.

    The manufacturing PMI consistently stayed above the 50-mark, indicating sustained expansion in these industries. Increasing foreign investments, an expanding domestic market, and government initiatives like ‘Make in India’ and ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ drove this growth. 

    Among standout companies in these industries, Siemens (heavy electrical equipment) rose 39.8% over the past year. It also reported strong financial performance over the past 12 months. Its trailing twelve month (TTM) revenue and net profit increased by 38.5% and 13.7%. The surge in demand for electrification and data centers, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), led to high growth.

    Dixon Technologies (consumer electronics) capitalized on the PLI scheme to expand its mobile phone manufacturing segment, boosting its revenue share in this category from 12% in FY20 to 62% in FY24.

    Jyoti CNC, a metal cutting CNC machines manufacturer, launched its IPO in January 2024. The IPO received a strong response from investors, with an overall subscription of 40.5 times. Since its listing, the company has delivered returns of 260.9%. The rally is fueled by the company's strong financial performance, growing order book, and rising global demand for CNC machines, especially in aerospace. Jyoti CNC's total order book reached Rs 4,289.3 crore by the end of Q2FY25.

    Similarly, Waaree Energies, a leading player in the other electrical equipment industry, launched its IPO in October 2024. As India's largest solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer, the IPO saw high demand and was oversubscribed 76.3 times, including 11.3 times by retail investors. Since its debut, the company has delivered impressive returns of over 73.6%. As of September 30, 2024, its order book stood at 20 GW.

    Financial services surged due to strong foreign inflows and increased retail participation

    The banking and finance sector, including industries like exchanges, capital markets, and other financial services, saw notable performance improvements over the past year. 

    In 2024, strong foreign institutional inflows (in seven out of 12 months) and increased retail participation drove India's stock markets to record highs. New demat accounts rose 33% in 2024 compared to 2023, bringing the total to 18.5 crore.

    Top performers from exchanges, capital markets, and other financial services industries include Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange, Motilal Oswal, KFIN Technologies and Central Depository Services (CDSL). 

    BSE shares surged 158.6% in 2024, fueled by its expansion of derivatives offerings and the anticipation of the National Stock Exchange’s (NSE) IPO. SEBI's regulatory changes favoring BSE's weekly Sensex options and strong financial performance also contributed to this growth. BSE’s TTM revenue and net profit grew by 17.1% and 119.3%, respectively.

    CDSL maintained its dominant position with a 73% market share in demat accounts (September 2024). NSE's potential IPO boosted positive sentiment toward market infrastructure firms like CDSL, anticipating benefits from increased market activity.

    Credit rating agency CRISIL's share price rallied by over 41% in 2024 after it acquired a 4% stake in Online PSB Loans (OPL) for Rs 33.3 crore, enhancing its presence in the digital credit infrastructure ecosystem. The company also reported strong financial results over the past year, with a 10.4% TTM net profit increase, and maintained consistent dividend payouts.

    The services sector thrived due to rising demand and increased digital adoption

    The services sector, including industries like hotels, internet software & services, and internet & catalogue retail industries, showed strong performance in 2024. The PMI for the services sector surged to a four-month high of 60.8 in December 2024, up from 58.4 in November, reflecting a strong rise in demand. 

    The hospitality industry benefited from a rebound in travel and tourism, while internet-based services experienced growth due to increased digital adoption and e-commerce activities. Top performers include Indian Hotel Company, Chalet Hotels, Zomato, Swiggy, Brainbees Solutions and PB Fintech.

    Indian Hotels Company's (IHCL) share price surged 75.8% in 2024. The company unveiled its ‘Accelerate 2030’ strategy in November 2024, aiming to double its hotel count and revenue by FY30. This plan includes expanding its portfolio to over 700 hotels, up from 350 in FY24, and increasing consolidated revenue to Rs 15,000 crore. 

    Zomato's share price rose over 74% over the past year as the company reported a 249.4% increase in net profit TTM. In December 2024, Zomato joined India's BSE Sensex index, becoming the first new-age tech company to do so.

    In 2024, Swiggy and Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) launched their IPOs in the Indian market. Both IPOs received significant investor interest and were oversubscribed. Swiggy expanded its quick commerce services via Instamart, aiming for 10-minute grocery deliveries. The company increased warehouse size and cut delivery times, with quick commerce now making up 40% of its food delivery volume since 2020.

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