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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    01 Oct 2024, 05:03PM

    Chart of the Week: Direct growth mutual funds deliver bumper returns amid India's market growth

    By Aditi Priya

    Veteran Emerging Markets investor Mark Mobius said on Friday, "We are now in a long-term bull market for India. And I see the Sensex going up to 100,000 probably by the end of the year provided that the measures taken by SEBI do not put a big damper on the market." This bullish outlook on India's equity market has driven the rapid growth of mutual funds. 

    Mutual funds have become an increasingly popular investment option in India, due to their simplicity and diversification. Among the various types, direct mutual funds have become especially popular, particularly direct growth mutual funds. These funds allow investors to bypass intermediaries and brokers, resulting in lower expense ratios compared to regular mutual funds.

    The mutual fund industry is witnessing exceptional growth in assets under management (AUM). According to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), assets managed by the mutual fund industry increased by 40.7% from Rs 46.9 lakh crore in August 2023 to Rs 66 lakh crore in August 2024. The jump in mutual fund assets is also attributable to the increase in Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) contributions. More than 3 crore people have registered for SIP between April and August 2024 and the total number of outstanding SIP accounts has increased by 14.4% to 9.6 crore in August 2024 from 8.4 crore in March 2024. 

    Sridharan Sundaram, Founder of Wealth Ladder Direct,said, “There are two key reasons for this surge in mutual fund assets in the past year. One is that small and mid-caps jumped anywhere between 30-40% in the past year, and the second is the continuous inflow into mutual funds via SIPs to the tune of around Rs 20,000 crore every month.”

    Mutual funds’ performance rebounds after falling in 2022

    In this edition of the chart of the week, we examine the performance of equity mutual funds from three different angles. The first representation, a heatmap, shows the yearly returns of the major mutual fund categories over the past four years. It indicates that equity mutual funds have been doing well over the past two years. However, in 2022, these funds were under pressure due to rising inflation, interest rate hikes, and global conflicts disrupting the global supply chain. 

    In 2021, the lifting of Covid-19 lockdowns helped mutual funds post stellar returns, with small-cap funds leading the way with 63.3% returns. In March 2020, equity mutual funds saw significant declines due to COVID-19-induced lockdowns and economic uncertainty. However, by the end of 2020, there was a remarkable recovery driven by government stimulus measures and liquidity infusion by central banks. Equity mutual funds, particularly multi-cap funds, rebounded strongly, delivering returns of 37.32%.

    Sectoral/thematic funds emerge as top performers based on one-year and five-year return

    If we look at the second chart, sectoral/thematic, particularly infrastructure funds, dominate the top-performing mutual funds over the past year. Bandhan Infrastructure Dir Gr had the highest returns of 75.2% over the past year, while the five year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the fund is 32.9%. Also, certain mid-cap equity mutual funds, like Motilal Oswal Mid Cap Dir Gr, have also been at par with the infrastructure mutual funds, mainly because they offer a balance between growth potential and stability, attracting investors seeking diversification with the chance for higher returns compared to large-cap funds.

    How has performance been over the long term?

    The third chart shows that Quant Small Cap Dir Gr has the highest five-year annualized returns of 49.5%, outperforming the small-cap funds category average by 22 percentage points. Quant Mid Cap Dir Gr returned 38.5% over the past five years, enabling the fund to outperform its category average by 16 percentage points over the same period.

    Within mutual fund houses, Quant Mutual Funds has seen impressive growth in AUM between August 2021 and August 2024. The mid cap fund experienced a remarkable increase of 5,340%, expanding from Rs 172 crore to Rs 9,367 crore. Similarly, the small cap fund's AUM grew by 2,342%, growing from Rs 1,045 crore to Rs 25,534 crore.

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    The Baseline
    27 Sep 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 27, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 27, 2024

    1. Firstsource Solutions:

    Thissoftware & services firm surged 6% on Tuesday after announcing that its arm, Firstsource Solutions UK, had acquired a UK-based customer service company, Ascensos, for Rs 469 crore. Chairman, Sanjiv Goenka, said, “This acquisition will help us expand in the retail segment which is a $28 billion market globally.” On September 16, the company alsoannounced a collaboration with Microsoft to provide digital transformation services using Azure OpenAI services.

    Revenue in Q1 rose 17.1% YoY to Rs 1,793 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 2.1%. While net profit surged 7.4% YoY to Rs 135 crore, it missed estimates by 4.8%. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates revenue growth of 18% on a YoY basis in Q2FY25, with net profit growth of 8.7% YoY. The company appears in ascreener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding in the last quarter.

    The miss in net profit was mainly because of marginal growth in its banking & financial services (BFS) segment, which is around 36% of the total revenue.Revenue mix shows that its healthcare services segment has outperformed other segments over the past year, contributing 36% to the revenue in Q1FY25, compared to 32% a year ago during the same period.

    The healthcare vertical was the best-performing segment in the past quarter with revenue growth of 26% on a YoY basis. MD & CEO, Ritesh Idani,said, “Medicare utilisation has been on the rise in the US, putting pressure on the margins of healthcare insurers.” He highlights that this has led to insurers seeking optimizations in their cost structure, resulting in a stronger deal pipeline for Firstsource.

    ICICI Securitiesmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating on Firstsource, with an upgraded target price of Rs 360, which implies a potential upside of 12.8%. This comes as management forecasts higher annual revenue growth of 11.5% to 13.5% for FY25, which is 8.7% higher growth than their previous guidance. The brokerage is optimistic as the company is diversifying from the BFS segment, and looking forward to broad-based growth in healthcare, communications and other segments.

    2. Vodafone Idea:

    Thistelecom service provider plunged 19.5% on September 19 following the Supreme Court’srejection of its petition seeking a re-evaluation of its adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues. The ruling mandates that the company must pay the full amount of its AGR liabilities, approximately Rs 70,320 crore, as per the Department of Telecommunications (DoT). This adds to the company's existing burden of Rs 1.4 lakh crore in deferred spectrum payment obligations, bringing the total outstanding dues to Rs 2.1 lakh crore.

    The government calculates this amount based on the total revenue of telecom companies, including income from non-telecom activities. The companies contend that this calculation is unfair and that they should be liable only for revenue directly related to telecom services. While Vodafone Idea seeks relief measures, such as the correction of calculation errors and reduction of penalties, the Indian government insists on its position on the full payment of the dues.

    Akshaya Moondra, chief executive officer (CEO) of Vodafone Idea,said, “We've initiated new talks with the government to resolve AGR dues. While a favorable outcome would ease our liability, our long-term plans and revival strategy remain unchanged. This result doesn't affect our cash flows or business plans.” These ongoing discussions with the government are crucial, as a positive outcome could potentially influence how similar AGR dues issues are addressed for other telecom operators within the industry.

    Despite these challenges, on September 22 Vodafone Idea announced adeal worth $3.6 billion (approx. Rs 26,784 crore) with global equipment vendors Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung. This investment, part of the company's three-year capital expenditure plan, aims to expand its 4G population coverage, launch 5G services, and improve network capacity. 

    Goldman Sachsmaintains a 'sell' rating on Vodafone Idea with a target price of Rs 2.5. The brokerage expressed concerns about Vi's ability to raise tariffs to address its free cash flow gap and predicted larger market share gains for competitors like Bharti Airtel and Jio at Vodafone’s expense.

    3. Power Grid Corp:

    This electric utilities company has risen by 5.8% over the past week, and touched a new 52-week high of Rs 366.2 on Wednesday. The rise comes after it secured an order to establish an inter-state transmission system at Khavda Pooling Station 1 (KPS1) and Khavda Pooling Station 3 (KPS3) in Gujarat on a build, own, operate, and transfer (BOOT) basis. In addition, Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Buy’ stance on the company with a target price of Rs 370 per share. This is the highest target in the consensus – the average target from analysts on Power Grid according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster is Rs 328.

    Khavda is the world’s largest renewable energy park, and is expected to significantly contribute to India's target of  achieving 500 GW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2030.

    Analysts predict that the Indian power sector will see significant investments exceeding Rs 40 lakh crore, driven by modernisation, growing energy demand and a transition towards renewable sources. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs notes that the Centre has upgraded the transmission capex estimate to $110 billion and believes Power Grid is poised to benefit from this. The company derives significant revenue (over 98%) from its transmission segment. 

    During Q1FY25, the total value of transmission projects under execution rose sharply to over Rs 1.1 lakh crore from around Rs 50,000 crore in Q1FY24. As a result, the company raised its capex target for FY25 to Rs 18,000 crore.  RK Tyagi, CMD of the company said  “Last time we said that our capex plan is, say, 15,000 crore but we have since added six more projects. The completion schedule for these projects is 18-21 months, so we  have increased the capex target to meet the deadlines”. The company reported a 3.5% YoY increase in net profit to Rs 3,723.9 during Q1FY25, while revenue declined marginally by 0.4% YoY to Rs 11,006.2. 

    Over the past year, Power Grid has risen over 78.6% outperforming the benchmark index Nifty 50 index which has gained around 33.2%. The company is currently trading the Strong Sell Zone, indicating that it is currently trading above its historical PE. 

    4. Bharat Heavy Electricals:

    This heavy electrical equipment manufacturer has risen 11.8% in the past week after receiving a Rs 6,100 crore engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) order from NTPC for an 800 MW unit at the Sipat Supercritical Thermal Power Project in Chhattisgarh. The company appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry over the past week.

    Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) signed an agreement in August worth Rs 11,000 crore with Adani Power and its subsidiary Mahan Energen to set up three 2x800 MW supercritical thermal power projects in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, expected to be completed in 49 to 55 months.

    BHEL has recorded an order inflow of Rs 34,100 crore in FY25 so far and appeared as the lowest bidder for another 3GW project worth Rs 21,000 crore, leading to a bulging order book of Rs 1.6 lakh crore, up from Rs 1.3 lakh crore in FY24. Despite this, there has been no major improvement in delayed orders, with its outstanding order book remaining at Rs 1,35,000 crore as of Q1FY25. Chairman and Managing Director, K. Sadashiv Murthy, mentioned that to ramp up execution, BHEL plans to revise its policies to attract new vendors and re-engage those who had left. This effort, if successful, is expected to help improve gross margins as well, which declined by 32% over the past six years. 

    The company has a 70:30 order distribution ratio, receiving 70-75% of orders from the power segment and 25-30% from the industry segment. In FY24, it secured a Vande Bharat order worth Rs 23,500 crore, partnering with Titagarh Wagons to supply 80 trainsets, of which BHEL's share is Rs 15,000 crore, and it anticipates a rise in orders from this industry segment in the future. Murthy said, "We expect more Vande Bharat orders in the next two to three years and aim for a long-term distribution of 50% from each segment."

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on BHEL, anticipating an order inflow of Rs 80,000 crore in FY25. The brokerage is optimistic about the outlook for coal-based capacity addition from the government and NTPC.

    5. Trent:

    This department stores company rose by over 6% in the past week as it is set to be included in the NIfty 50 on September 30th in the index’s semi-annual rejig. Analysts expect the company to attract a total of $495 million ( Rs 4,141.5 crore) inflows due to this inclusion. In May 2024, the company entered into a joint venture (JV) with Singapore-based MAS Amity for designing, developing and manufacturing intimate apparel and other related products in India.

    For Q1FY25, the company’s net profit had surged by 126.3% YoY to 392.6 crore, while revenue rose by 54.8% YoY, driven by increased footfalls and strong performance across brands, concepts, categories, and channels. The firm beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 7.6%, but missed the net profit estimate by 0.1% due to subdued market sentiment and heightened competitive intensity. The stock appears in a screener for stocks with strong momentum.

    In Q1FY25 the company opened 6 new stores in Westside and added 14 stores in Zudio on a QoQ basis. Trent now operates 228 Westside stores and 559 Zudio stores across 178 cities in India. It has increased the average store area by approximately 16% and 19% YoY, reaching 19,400 sq. ft. for Westside and 9,200 sq. ft. for Zudio. Revenue from Star Bazaar, the company's grocery store brand, grew by 21% YoY to Rs 2,200 crore, primarily driven by a 27% like-for-like (LFL) growth. Zara's revenue increased by 8% YoY, supported by a 15% rise in store count (+3 new stores). Average revenue per Zara store also rose by 3% YoY. 

    Analysts estimate India's retail market size to grow 18% YoY to $4.5 trillion (Rs 37,639.6 crore) by 2030 vs.  $1.4 trillion (Rs 11,710.1 crore) in 2023. Along with this they estimate India's fashion and lifestyle market to be Rs 6.5 lakh crore in 2024, with organized players accounting for 40% of this total. Trent's market share in the organized segment was 4.6% in FY24. Analysts observe that retailer-owned brands have gained significance recently, as they provide shoppers with better value for money while allowing retailers to achieve higher margins. These brands have the potential to evolve into self-sustaining propositions.

    Citi has initiated a ‘Buy’ rating on Trent with a target price of Rs 9,250, citing growth from transformation to a multi-format and commodity player. The brokerage notes the company is utilizing its supply chain and turning around its Star Bazaar business. It believes the company is well-placed to grow its other pilot projects, including MISBU (the company’s fashion brand) and its JV with MAS Amity. The brokerage sees a revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 41/44/56% in FY25-27.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    26 Sep 2024
    Cut-throat competition in India's cement industry | Screener: Stocks with strong revenue estimates for Q2

    Cut-throat competition in India's cement industry | Screener: Stocks with strong revenue estimates for Q2

    By Swapnil Karkare

    On May 15, 2022 - a Sunday - Adani did not have a cement business. On Monday, he was India's second biggest cement player. The announcement by the Adani Group of a massive $10.5 billion deal to buy Swiss company Holcim's India business, changed the industry overnight.

    When India's richest billionaire makes eye contact with a sector, the existing players get nervous. Adani's entry has set off an intense fight between him and the industry leader, Aditya Birla's Ultratech Cement, for market share.

    Over the past several months, the top two players have been busy filling their concrete shopping bags. Ultratech Cement acquired over 50% of India Cements in July 2024. Meanwhile, Ambuja Cements, part of the Adani Group, has fully acquired Penna Cement and is reportedly eyeingITD Cementation. 

    Since 2016, there have been 21 significant deals totalling at least Rs. 1.6 trillion. This surge in acquisitions is rapidly reshaping the sector. While such consolidation excites financial markets, it poses challenges for both the industry players and investors.

    In this week's Analyticks:

    • Adani versus Birla: Growing pains in the Indian cement industry 
    • Screener: Rising stocks with strong Forecaster revenue estimates for Q2FY25 

    Trying to find the shortest route to the top

    The Adani Group is in a hurry. It became the second-largest cement player after it acquired Swiss-based Holcim’s India business, which included Ambuja Cements and ACC. It has also reportedlyset aside $3 billion for more acquisitions. 

    Its production capacity has jumped from 68 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2022 with the Holcim acquisition to 89 mtpa today with the addition of Sanghi Industries and Penna Cement. It plans to reach 140 mtpa by 2028.

    Meanwhile, Ultratech Cement, once known for its organic growth strategy, is also in acquisition mode. In the last few months, it has acquired Burnpur Cement, Kesoram Industries and India Cements. From 115 mtpa, its capacity has reached 155 mtpa today with a target of reaching 200 mtpa by FY27.

    CareEdge Ratings estimates that the top four cement companies’ share of India's capacity has increased from 35% in FY12 to 50% in FY24, with projections to hit 60% soon. Their share in cement demand has jumped from 47% to 65% over the same period. Smaller players have lost ground, and could see their market shares fall further.

    Acquisition fever has South India in focus

    The cement industry is not homogenous; it varies by region. Regional dynamics define pricing as well as market leadership. 

    In South India for instance, the market is more fragmented, with the top five players holding 47% of the market share compared to 83% in the North. The capacity utilisation level is lower (60-65%) than the North (85%). This complicates acquisition strategies.

    However, the competitive landscape has intensified in the last few years as large players seek to expand their market share.

    The acquisition spree is not over yet. Southern companies such as Deccan Cement, Chettinad Cement, MyHome Industries and Bharthi Vicat, holding 9% of India’s capacity, could be prime targets for acquisition, according to an Emkay Securities report. Higher capacities, fragmented markets, and rising cement demand have made the region an attractive hunting ground. 

    Large players are pricing to the bottom as they fight for market share

    While demand usually drives up prices, rising competition has disrupted this in cement.The big companies are using aggressive pricing strategies to undercut smaller, regional players. For instance, leading companies have sold cement cheaper by Rs.10-15 a bag to compete with Orient Cement in the South.

    Orient Cement’s management explained how this strategy has hurt them. “We see that their goal is to sweat the asset, and sell more volume in the market. But their aggression in driving volumes is pushing pricing lower, while demand is not robust enough."

    "So the only option for people like us is to either succumb to the pressure of very low pricing and start losing money, literally losing money, or to follow our own strategy and make sure that the business being done is not at a loss”, Deepak Khetrapal, Orient's MD & CEO, saidrecently.

    As a result, smaller companies are facing lower margins, and if their financial position isn’t healthy, they risk becoming acquisition targets.

    Are cement companies overvalued?

    The acquisition wave has inflated valuations for cement players. As the market anticipates more M&As, the large companies are seeing their valuation multiples soar. Stock prices of smaller companies tend to spike even on rumours about potential acquisitions, as seen recently with ITD Cementation. 

    Although most experts are positive about the sector, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities have flagged valuation concerns. Cement is a capex-heavy commodity business, with a low fixed asset turnover ratio (around 1x). A ratio of 1x means that if the company adds Rs. 100 in assets, it generates Rs. 100 in sales. If that ratio is higher, then it can generate more revenue with low investments.

    But the low ratio of cement companies means that capex drags free cash flows (FCF) down, resulting in a low FCF to profit-after-tax (PAT) ratio. Kotak analysts believe that FCF to PAT is a better metric than the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for such sectors. That number suggests the sector is overvalued at 30-40x PE.

    Trendlyne scores do not suggest overvaluation as the scores are still above 30. Larger players are a bit pricey compared to the smaller ones, but they are fundamentally strong.

    Capex plans stay ambitious, thanks to manageable debt

    Despite the buzz around acquisitions, companies are not neglecting organic growth. The industry has plans for an overall capex of Rs. 1.5 trillion in the next 2-3 years, almost 1.4X the amount spent in the last five years.

    Analysts from Crisil note that this expansion will largely be funded through internal resources and operating cash flows, thanks to the healthy balance sheets and low debt levels of these cement firms.

    The focus on both organic growth and acquisitions has made the race to the top a fierce one. It also reflects confidence in India’s economy, as the government’s infra push and a robust real estate market is driving cement demand. India right now, has lots of room to grow.

    The future? Mostly sunny, with some clouds

    Trendlyne forecasts suggest moderate revenue growth for cement companies in FY25. In the first half of this fiscal year, elections and monsoons dampened demand. Higher raw material costs and a weak pricing environment could impact profitability too.

    However, analysts are predicting a demand uptick from Q3 this year, especially as government infrastructure projects kick off after the Diwali festival. Whether this increase in demand will translate into pricing power remains uncertain, amid fierce competition for market share. 

    The cement sector is going through a major transformation. The big companies are on top right now, dictating prices and turning smaller players into acquisition targets. Once the dust settles in a few quarters, the industry will look very different.


    Screener: Rising stocks with strong Forecaster revenue estimates in Q2FY25 

    Forecaster expects construction and cement stocks’ revenue to grow in Q2FY25

    As we enter the last week of Q2FY25, we take a look at stocks that have risen over the past quarter, and where Forecaster expects YoY revenue growth. This screener shows stocks in the cement & construction sector rising over the past quarterwith strong Forecaster estimates for quarterly revenue YoY growth in Q2FY25.

    Stocks from the construction & engineering and cement & cement products industries dominate the screener. Notable stocks in the screener include Capacit’e Infraprojects, ITD Cementation, Kalpataru Projects International, Grasim Industries, Larsen & Toubro, Ahluwalia Contracts (India), Dalmia Bharat, and UltraTech Cement.

    Forecaster expects ITD Cementation’s revenue to grow by 32.6% YoY in Q2FY25. This construction & engineering stock has also risen by 16.8% over the past quarter, after reports emerged that the Adani Group is planning to buy a 46.6% stake in the company for Rs 5,888.7 crore. Analysts at Asit C Mehta Investment Intermediates expect the company’s revenue to grow, driven by the government push in the infrastructure sector, and strong order inflows. The brokerage expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 17% over FY25-26.

    Kalpataru Projects International, another construction & engineering company, shows up in the screener as Forecaster expects its revenue to grow by 17.7% YoY in Q2FY25. Its stock price rose by 12.9% in the last quarter. ICICI Direct believes the company is well positioned for revenue growth owing to its strong order pipeline in the transmission & distribution (T&D), buildings & factories (B&F), and water segments in the domestic market. It expects the company’s T&D business to win orders in the international market. The brokerage anticipates the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 23.5% over FY25-26.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    25 Sep 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - September 25, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - September 25, 2024

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services:

    Edelweiss initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services with a target price of Rs 740, suggesting a 30.4% upside. Analysts Thakur Ranvir Singh and Pawan Bhatia highlight that this healthcare facilities provider aims to increase its bed capacity from 1,605 in Q1FY25 to around 3,000 beds by FY28 through organic and inorganic growth.

    Yatharth Hospital recently acquired a 200-bed hospital in Faridabad and announced expansions in Noida, boosting total capacity to 1,300 beds by FY27. The company plans to acquire one hospital annually and improve occupancy rates, which rose to 61% in Q1FY25. Yatharth's focus on specialty care like oncology and cardiology is expected to increase average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB), while its healthy balance sheet supports expansion plans.

    Singh and Bhatia project a CAGR of 31% in revenue, 30% in EBITDA, and 31% in net profit over FY 25-27. They highlight that the stock trades at 14 times its FY26 EV/EBITDA, about 39% lower than its peers like Max Healthcare, Fortis, and Global Health.

    2. Senco Gold:

    Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this Bengal-based jewellery company with a target price of Rs 1,600, indicating a potential upside of 10.1%. Analysts Devanshu Bansal and Vishal Panjwani say, “We expect a strong pick-up in jewellery retail as recent cooling in gold prices rushed consumers to stores.” They highlight that the firm’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is currently trading at a 45-55% discount to its peers Titan and Kalyan, and ~25% lower than the recent IPO, PN Gadgil.

    Senco plans to expand its footprint in non-eastern regions, focusing on Delhi-NCR and Uttar Pradesh. Bansal and Panjwani anticipate the initial expansion coming from company-owned stores, with plans to transition towards asset-light franchisee stores once the brand is established. They estimate a lower investment of Rs 2 crore in inventory for franchisee-owned, franchisee operated (FOFO) stores, compared to Rs 25 crore for company-owned, company-operated (COCO) stores.

    Senco's revenue per store is lower due to reduced gold consumption in eastern India (200g/wedding compared to 350g in the south). However, it benefits from higher margins on handmade jewellery and lower inventory needs, maintaining a competitive return on capital compared to peers.

    3. Pitti Engineering:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this electrical equipment manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,572, indicating a potential upside of 22.3%. Analysts Sani Vishe and Shivani More note that the company is expanding its production capacities from 56,000 tonnes per annum (TPA) to 90,000 TPA, with plans to reach 100,000 TPA by Jan '25. The company is expanding its Aurangabad facility with new capacity, while closing its lamination operations in Hyderabad. In Hyderabad, it will now focus on machining, while Aurangabad will handle lamination, machining, assemblies, and shaft manufacturing.

    Analyst highlights that the company is upgrading to 4 & 5 Axis computer numerical control machines and importing advanced machinery from Germany and Taiwan. In terms of the value chain, lamination and copper winding each represent 25% of motor manufacturing. Additionally, to reduce logistics costs, it is restructuring operations and building a new manufacturing unit in Hyderabad alongside a large plant in Aurangabad, supporting a multi-year deal with Wabtec.

    Analysts Vishe and More expect the company's revenue, net profit, and EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 36.6%, 42.2%, and 38.6% respectively, over FY 25-26.

    4. HEG:

    ICICI Direct continues to recommend a ‘Buy’ on this industrial goods company, setting a target price of Rs 2,520, which suggests a possible upside of 3.5%. Analysts Shashank Kanodia and Manisha Kesar note that the company is well-positioned for growth, driven by the global steel industry's transition to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) technology, which reduces carbon emissions by 75% and cuts production costs. EAF’s share in crude steel production (excluding China) is projected to grow from 50% to 55% in the next 3-4 years. 

    The analysts note that the company expects demand recovery by the second half of FY25. The company is also entering the graphite anode business by setting up a 20,000 ton capacity at an investment of Rs 1800 crore, driven by the increasing demand for Li-ion batteries, with production starting in FY27.

    Kanodia and Kesar are optimistic on HEG, driven by the global shift towards the EAF route and expansion-led volume growth. They project a revenue CAGR of 11.8% and an EBITDA CAGR of 35% for FY 25-26.

    5. Transport Corporation of India:

    Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this logistics solutions provider with a target price of Rs 1,400. This indicates an upside of 26.2%. Transport Corporation of India (TCIL) reported a 12.9% YoY growth in daily average e-way bills and a 6.8% YoY increase in FASTag volumes for August 2024. The company’s management anticipates revenue and net profit growth of 10-15% YoY for FY25, aligning with analysts' projections of 10% and 12.5% respectively.

    The company has signed a contract to purchase two cellular container vessels, each with a 7,300 MT capacity, for Rs 324 crore. The delivery is expected in late 2026 or early 2027, with each vessel projected to generate Rs 80 crore in FY28. The analyst expects TCIL to benefit from an improving domestic trade environment from the end of July, thanks to the end of the monsoon and early inventory stocking for the festive season.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    24 Sep 2024

    Chart of the Week: Global interest rate cuts drive markets higher

    By Aditi Priya

    The Indian stock market’s obsession with the US Federal Reserve is a long-standing saga. Every time the Fed meets to announce its domestic macroeconomic data and interest rates, Indian markets and participants closely scrutinize the proceedings amid considerable volatility.

    However, over the past few years, it's not just the US that has adjusted interest rates multiple times. China, the EU, and Japan have also made several changes, impacting the Indian economy whenever significant global shifts in financial flows occur—from increases or decreases in major economies' interest rates.

    The Fed's first rate cut in four years boosts global markets, paves way for potential RBI cuts

    On September 18, the US Federal Reserve delivered what global markets had eagerly anticipated—a substantial rate cut, the first in over four years. The US central bank reduced its benchmark rates by 50 basis points, providing a significant boost to markets worldwide by reducing borrowing costs for global investors. Prior to this, the Fed had been raising rates at an unprecedented pace since March 2022.

    After announcing the rate cut, Fed chair Jerome Powell said in a statement, “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further progress." The current US inflation rate is 2.5%, which is the lowest it's been since February 2021.

    From the perspective of the Indian market, a decreasing interest rate is positive in two key ways:

    Developing economies like India stand to benefit from such rate cuts, as foreign investors are drawn to the high returns the Indian economy offers. With US rates expected to drop by over 200 basis points in the next two years, India is likely to experience sustained foreign capital inflows, driven by investors seeking the country’s robust economic growth. 

    Secondly, the Fed’s move could pave the way for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to implement rate cuts in the coming months. The Fed's rate cut reduces pressure on capital outflows in India and boosts foreign inflows. This can create favorable conditions for the RBI to implement rate cuts by aligning with global trends.

    Japan ends its negative interest rate policy, affecting global investments

    On another front, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently concluded its eight-year policy of negative interest rates. On March 19, 2024, the BOJ raised its benchmark rate to 0.25% from the previous range of 0-0.1%, marking its second rate hike in 17 years. While this increase seems modest, it can have implications for global economies, including India.

    A member of the policy board of BOJ, Junko Nakagawa said, "Given real interest rates are currently very low, we will adjust the degree of monetary support, from the standpoint of achieving our 2% inflation target, if our economic and price forecasts are met.” Japan's consumer inflation accelerated to 3% in August, surpassing the Bank of Japan's 2% target and up from 2.8% in July. This rise was fueled by increased prices for food and household durable goods.

    Japan has been a key source of global capital because of its very low interest rates, which pushed investors to seek higher returns in other countries. A move to positive interest rates, even if small, could lead to Japanese investors bringing their money back home. This could cause them to adjust their investments in places like India, where they've been active in both equity and debt markets. With domestic Japanese investments becoming more attractive, foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) from Japan into India could slow down.

    Indian companies, particularly in sectors such as infrastructure and automobiles, often borrow from international markets, including Japan, due to lower interest rates. A rise in Japanese rates could increase the cost of borrowing for Indian firms, making it more expensive to finance projects and expansions. A hike in Japanese interest rates could also lead to the appreciation of the yen against the Indian rupee. This would make Japanese exports more expensive and Indian imports from Japan pricier, potentially widening India’s trade deficit with Japan. 

    Why has India not cut rates despite global trends?

    India’s inflation in 2023 exceeded the target range of 4-6%, primarily due to rising food prices and supply-side challenges. Although inflation figures have improved in 2024 and are now well within the target range, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its key interest rate at 6.5% to prevent demand-driven inflation from escalating.

    RBI Governor, Shaktikanta Das said, "It is not so much how the inflation is now; we have to look at, for the next six months, for the next one year, what is the outlook on inflation. So I would like to step back and look more carefully at what is the future trajectory of inflation and growth. Based on that, we will make a decision.”

    Moreover, with aggressive rate hikes, in the past 2-3 years, in advanced economies such as the US and EU, cutting rates in India could have led to capital outflows, weakening the rupee. A depreciating rupee would have increased import costs, adding more inflationary pressure to the economy.

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    The Baseline
    20 Sep 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 20, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 20, 2024

    1. REC:

    This public sector NBFC surged 3% on Wednesday after signing non-binding Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) worth Rs 1.1 lakh crore over five years, with various renewable energy developers like Hygenco Green Energies. These agreements cover projects like solar and wind hybrid systems, floating solar plants, ultra mega renewable energy parks, hydroelectric power, and other innovative technologies. 

    REC aims to play a key role in boosting India’s non-fossil-based generation capacity from 200 GW to 500 GW by 2030. With its "Shapath Patra" commitment, REC plans to grow its renewables loan book from the current Rs 42,936 crore to over Rs 3 lakh crore by 2030, increasing the share of renewables from 8% to 30%. Its total loan book is expected to reach Rs 10 lakh crore by 2030.

    In Q1FY25, REC reported a 16.6% increase in consolidated net profit, reaching Rs 3,460.2 crore, driven primarily by higher revenues. This revenue figure beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimate by 4.8%, although net profit fell short of expectations by 2.6%. The loan book continued its steady growth, rising 17% to Rs 5.3 lakh crore compared to Rs 4.5 lakh crore in the same period last year. 

    Vivek Dewangan, MD and Chairman, commented on guidance and projections, "Going forward, we aim to maintain a net interest margin above 3.6% for the next 4-5 years. We also anticipate significant growth in our renewable portfolio, which we expect to account for 30% of our total AUM by 2030, up from the current 8%. This year, we are targeting disbursements of around Rs 1.9 lakh crore."

    UBS Global Research has initiated a 'Buy' call on REC, citing India's expanding renewable energy generation and infrastructure growth. The brokerage has set a target price of Rs 720 per share, indicating a 33% upside from Wednesday's closing price. Despite this positive outlook, the company is trading in the strong sell zone, indicating that it is currently trading above its historical PE.

    2. Hero MotoCorp:

    This two-wheeler manufacturer rose by 3.6% over the past week to touch its all-time high of Rs 6,146 on Wednesday as the company expects increased momentum in the upcoming quarter, driven by the festive season. CEO Niranjan Gupta highlights that the company aims to adjust inventory levels to support growth this festive season. They plan to keep stock within a 4-6 week range to manage increased demand effectively.

    The company is in talks to invest Rs 900 crore in Altigreen Propulsion Labs, an electric three-wheeler startup. This move will put Hero MotoCorp directly in competition with industry leaders Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Auto. The company also holds a 40% stake in electric 2-wheeler company Ather Energy, which recently filed papers for a Rs 312 crore IPO. 

    In Q1FY25, the company reported a net profit growth of 47.3% YoY to Rs 1,045.9 crore, but missed Trendlyne Forecaster estimates by 3.7%. Revenue grew 15.4% YoY to Rs 10,218 crore during the quarter, thanks to a recovery in the 125cc segment and the success of the new Xtreme 125 cc model. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving book value per share over the past two years.

    Gupta said, "The positive response to the Xtreme 125cc has prompted us to increase its manufacturing capacity from 25,000 to 40,000 units per month, which we will implement in the next couple of months. We also have new models in the pipeline, including the Destini scooter and Xoom models in 110 cc, 125 cc, and 160 cc capacities."

    Geojit BNP Paribas has a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock as the brokerage anticipates an acceleration in the coming quarters, driven by positive customer sentiment, a favorable monsoon, and the festive season. Additionally, the company's planned product launches in both internal combustion engine (ICE) and EV categories support a positive outlook.

    3. Thermax:

    Thisheavy electrical equipment manufacturer has risen 15.6% over the past week as its wholly-owned subsidiary, Thermax Babcock & Wilcox Energy Solutions, received a repeat order worth Rs 516 crore from Jindal Energy Botswana. This order is for two 550 tonnes per hour (TPH) boilers for a 300 MW energy project in Botswana, Southern Africa.

    InQ1FY25, the company reported operating revenue growth of 13% YoY to Rs 2,184.4 crore but missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 3%. Net profit also nearly doubled on a YoY basis to Rs 116 crore but was 14% below consensus estimates. This estimate miss was mainly due to lower order inflow which led to subdued order book growth. With an order inflow of Rs 2,600 crore, Thermax’s order book grew 2% YoY to Rs 10,700 crore at the end of Q1.

    Managing Director and CEO, Ashish Bhandari,said, “The company is likely to see higher order inflow in FY25 compared to FY24, led by the refining and petrochemicals sector.” He highlights that the company is also venturing into newer segments to boost order book growth, and also aims to grow its chemicals business which currently contributes 7% to the total revenue.

    ICICI Securitiesmaintains a ‘Hold’ rating on Thermax as financials missed estimates in Q1. The brokerage believes that orders from the thermal segment will remain strong over the next few years and give a big boost to Thermax’s order inflow. They forecast the company’s revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 15% and 21.7% respectively.

    4. Delhivery:

    This transportation & logistics company rose by over 3% in the past week as on September 16th, as it entered into a strategic partnership with Team Global Logistics to expand its cross-border services to 120 countries. This collaboration aims to combine Delhivery’s Part Truckload shipping network with Team Global Logistics’ expertise as the country’s largest Less-Than-Container Load (LCL) operator.

    For Q1FY25, the company’s net profit rose by 160.8% YoY to Rs 54.4 crore, while its revenue rose by 12.4% YoY as its express parcel segment revenue grew 6.2% YoY. The firm beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 2.1%, and the net profit estimate by 185.2% as the company recorded a net loss in the previous quarter and in Q1FY24. The stock appears in a screener for stocks where mutual funds have increased shareholding over the past month.

    Analysts report that the company’s Express business’ service-level EBITDA was maintained at 18%, while service EBITDA for the Partial Truckload (PTL) business expanded 100 bps to 3.2%. The company has the largest coverage of  19,000 pin codes across the country. The company is also planning to enter quick commerce, where they plan to create a warehousing and delivery infrastructure for D2C brands and smaller Quality Control (QC) players. 

    In February, Meesho, an e-commerce player, launched a logistics aggregation platform called "Valmo," to consolidate various logistics providers and offer their services to sellers. Unlike other e-commerce firms like Flipkart and Amazon, Meesho does not plan to invest in assets such as trucks and warehouses. When asked by analysts on whether Delhivery will join Valmo, its CEO, Sahil Barua noted that “The incentive for us to unbundle is zero. It is also not in the interest of customers to disintermediate ourselves as the cost curve flattens quickly when you run a parcel-only network.”

    Despite a tough market, management expects PTL revenue to keep growing as the industry shifts toward integrated players. They note that in the US., the top five logistics companies hold a 65% market share in PTL, and they anticipate a similar trend in India. For FY25 the management expects the EBITDA margin of PTL business to improve and approach the express parcel business’ margin of 18% as volume increases.

    ICICI Securities has maintained a “Buy” rating on Delhivery, with a target price of Rs 600. The brokerage values the company at 40x FY26E EV/EBITDA. It adds that the firm is strengthening its leadership position in the express parcel. In the PTL sector, it became profitable at the service EBITDA level starting Q4FY24.

    5. Shyam Metalics and Energy:

    Thisiron & steel/intermediaries products manufacturer rose 3.2% on Monday, hitting an all-time high of Rs 908.9 the next day. This surge followed the company's announcement of theexpansion of its production capabilities with a state-of-the-art Greenfield Cold Rolling Mill (CRM) in Jamuria, West Bengal with a total capital cost of Rs 603 crore.

    The new facility has a capacity of 400,000 tons per year and will produce pre-painted galvalume coils and galvanized iron/steel coils. The mill is located in eastern India, which provides logistical advantages and helps address the region's shortage of color-coated sheet manufacturing units. This expansion will enhance Shyam Metalics' product offerings and manufacturing capabilities.

    The CRM's output will cater to various sectors, including housing, warehousing, and industrial sheds, with a particular focus on affordable housing through initiatives like Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana.

    Brij Bhushan Aggarwal, Vice Chairman and MD of the company,said, “We aim to achieve optimal utilization of the new facility within the next two years, contributing 8% to 10% of the company’s revenue & EBITDA in the years to come.” The expansion will enhance production capabilities, reinforce the company's position as a key supplier of high-quality steel products, and leverage lower production costs and logistical advantages.

    UBSinitiates a ‘Buy’ rating on Shyam Metalics and Energy with a target price of Rs 1,200. The brokerage highlights the company's successful foray into new businesses (aluminum and stainless steel products) as a confirmation of its execution capabilities. They believe the multiple new projects commencing operations in FY25/26 provide strong earnings visibility, while diversification mitigates profitability risk.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    19 Sep 2024
    Singapore has become a major Indian investor | Screener: Rising stocks with growing FII investments

    Singapore has become a major Indian investor | Screener: Rising stocks with growing FII investments

    By Swapnil Karkare

    Singapore, a rich, tiny nation of just 5.8 million people, has long had many Indian connections. It is the only country outside Sri Lanka with Tamil as one of its official languages. The iconic Singaporean fish head curry was invented by a Kerala chef. Our trade links are old: traders on the Singapore island were buying spices, pearls and even elephants from Indian merchants in the 10th century.

    In recent years, this chaddi-buddy relationship has intensified. One sign of this: Singapore Airlines now flies to more destinations in India than anywhere else in the world, with eight cities on its route. PM Modi’s visit to Singapore in early September pushed for a closer partnership around industries like semiconductors, healthcare and manufacturing.

    Singapore now ranks second only to the US among India's foreign institutional investors (FIIs) - as of August 2024, total Indian assets of Singapore-based FIIs crossed Rs. 7.7 trillion, which includes debt, equity and hybrid instruments.

    In this week's Analyticks:

    Best friends?: India and Singapore are tying themselves closer together

    Screener: Rising stocks with FIIs increasing their stakes in the past eight quarters


    India and Singapore find more reasons to work together

    In FY 2024, India exported goods worth $14 billion to Singapore, with petroleum and bituminous products accounting for half of it. Changing demand-supply dynamics in Europe, led India to divert its diesel and jet fuel to Singapore and Australia. This turn increased the share of fuel exports from 37% in FY10 to 49% in FY24.

    On the imports side, India bought goods worth over $21 billion, with electrical machinery the biggest segment. From FY10-24, exports to Singapore grew 5% annually (CAGR) while imports rose by 9%, leaving India with a trade deficit of $7 billion in FY24. Singapore ranks sixth in India’s total trade (exports + imports) while India ranks twelfth in Singapore’s trade.

    Foreign direct investments shift in Singapore's favour

    The cumulative FDI into India from Mauritius, the top country, stands at $175 billion. Singapore is at $150 billion and surging fast. The declining attractiveness of Mauritius is clearing the way for Singapore to become the top foreign investor in India in a few years.

    Mauritian investments tend to be 'foreign' in name only - many businesses register themselves in Mauritius and operate in India to dodge taxes. Mauritius’ tax haven status has made it a transit point rather than a true source of investment. The infamous 2007 share transfer case of Vodafone, which routed investments through Mauritius, cemented its reputation for tax avoidance. In response, India plugged loopholes in its treaty with Mauritius in April 2017.

    In FY17 and FY18, Mauritius invested $15 billion in India each year. But from FY19 onwards, this has plummeted to an average of $8 billion. Singapore, on the other hand, invested $15 billion annually on average during the FY19-24 period, becoming the top investor based on annual inflows.

    Singapore has become a major FII investor

    Singapore isn’t just shining in FDI. It also ranks second only to the US among top foreign institutional investors (FII). Here as well, Mauritius used to dominate a decade ago, holding 27% of total FII assets in India as of March 2012. Today, its share is close to 5%.

    Besides the Singapore Government, Nalanda Capital and Amansa Capital are the two major Singapore-based funds investing in India. Nalanda’s portfolio value as on June 2024 was $5 billion (Rs. 45k crore) and that of Amansa’s was $2.5 billion (Rs. 21k crore). 

    Which stocks are Singaporean investors buying?

    Nalanda owns shares in 24 companies, and its top investments by holding value include Havells, AIA Engineering, Thermax, Page Industries, Supreme Industries, Info Edge, Berger Paints, MRF, Ratnamani Metals & Tubes, and Amara Raja Energy & Mobility.

    Amansa has invested in 22 companies and top 10 constitutes Trent, SRF, Eicher Motors, Cyient, Bharat Forge, Sundram Fasteners, Intellect Design Arena, V-Mart, Poonawalla Fincorp, and Fortis Healthcare.

    But Singapore’s role in India’s financial markets is beyond private wealth management firms or hedge funds. The government’s involvement is significant. It is the largest FII and the eighth-largest institutional investor in India. 

    The Government of Singapore’s portfolio value was close to $32 billion (Rs. 270k crore) as of June 2024. It has invested in 57 companies. Its top investments include Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, L&T, Infosys, Shriram Finance, M&M and NTPC.

    Apart from the government, which invests through GIC, a sovereign fund of Singapore, two other government agencies manage investments. They are the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the central bank, and Temasek Holdings. 

    The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s portfolio value was over $600 million (Rs. 5k crores). It has invested in 6 companies: Shriram Finance, Max Healthcare, Godrej Properties, Sona BLW Precision Forgings, Affle, and Sapphire Foods.

    Temasek Holdings’ net portfolio value as of March 2024 was $20 billion. Its website and news sources suggest that it holds HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Manipal Health (unlisted), NSE India (unlisted), Schneider ElectricandZomato, to name a few. Last year, it had announced that it would invest $10 billion over the next three years.

    Analysing the Government of Singapore's investments

    The Singapore government’s Indian portfolio has favoured the Banking & Finance sector, making up one-third of its total investments. Other prominent sectors include Oil & Gas, Cement & Construction, Software and Auto.

    Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank have the lion’s share in its portfolio – accounting for 10% each. However, the actual stakes are 1% in Reliance Industries and 2% in HDFC Bank. The highest stakes were in Samhi Hotels and Sapphire Foods, it holds 8% in these companies.

    The Singapore government has increased its shareholding in Sapphire Foods, Max Healthcare, Sona BLW Precision Forgings, Bharti Airtel and M&M in the past year while reducing it in Petronet LNG, Phoenix Mills, Syngene International, Prestige Estates Projects and L&T.

    In the last couple of quarters, the government has also added a few new names to its portfolio, like Data Patterns, Entero Healthcare Solutions, Timken, Apollo Hospitals, Indigo, etc.  These changes reveal a preference towards healthcare, technology, and capital and intermediary goods.


    More investments in the pipeline

    Given its historically strong relationship and the recent investment roadshow in Singapore, India is at a sweet spot in receiving investments. A moneycontrol report notes that Singaporean companies have already committed investments over Rs. 5 trillion (~ $60 billion) in the coming years. The Indian High Commission in Singapore has been working on getting more investments in India's infrastructure, renewable energy, and advanced technology sectors. 

    It will be interesting to see if the sum of all these parts becomes something significant. As Rajat Verma, Head of Institutional Banking at DBS Bank suggests, this partnership could create an international shift, as the industry relationships deepen.


    Screener: Rising stocks over the past year with increasing FII holding in the past eight quarters

    Banking and IT stocks see the highest rise in FII holdings

    As we enter the last couple of weeks of Q2FY25, we take a look at stocks that saw an increase in their foreign institutional investor (FII) holdings during the past two years. This screener shows stocks rising over the past year, where FIIs increased their stake over  the past eight quarters.

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the software & services, banking & finance, automobiles & auto components and general industrials sectors. Major stocks that appear in the screener are Zomato, 360 One Wam, Max Healthcare, PB Fintech, ITC, Computer Age Management Services, Sona BLW Precision Forgings and Max Financial Services.

    Zomato’s FII holding increased the most, by 44.1 percentage points in the past eight quarters, while its stock price also surged by 163.7% over the past year. The Government of Singapore was the largest buyer, acquiring a 2.02% stake in this internet & software services company followed by Camas Investments (bought a 1.9% stake) and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (bought a 1.3% stake). Public holding dropped significantly to 28.6% in June 2024, down from 84.6% in June 2022, suggesting that public investors are likely the primary sellers due to their reduced stake.

    Max Healthcare saw its FII holding rise by 33.7 percentage points in the last two years, the stock has also surged by 62.9% over the past year. The Government of Singapore is the largest buyer in this case as well, acquiring over 6% stake. New World Fund Inc and Monetary Authority of Singapore also bought a 6% and 1.5% stake in this healthcare facilities stock. These shares were sold by public shareholders and DIIs, whose stakes declined from 6.6% to 3.9% and from 19.4% to 15.4%, respectively, between June 2022 and June 2024.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    18 Sep 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - September 18, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - September 18, 2024

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. Pricol:

    Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating for this auto components manufacturer, setting a target price of Rs 600, a potential upside of 22.6%. Pricol currently allocates ~4% of its sales to R&D and has formed key partnerships, including with the Chinese firm TYW for developing e-cockpits and Sibros for telematics, to advance its product offerings. 

    The company anticipates growth in its disc brake segment, where it has won orders from major 2-wheeler OEMs and EV startups, with production set to begin soon. It aims to expand its revenue base to Rs 3,000 crore annually within three years, up from its current Rs 1,200 crore capacity.

    Analysts Chirag Jain, Jaimin Desai, Nandan Pradhan and Omkar Rane highlight that the company will benefit from the growing use of advanced digital displays, such as touchscreens. The cost of these displays has tripled over the past five years and is expected to increase by another 50-60% in the next 2-3 years. Pricol is focused on adding new clients like Honda and Suzuki over the next 18-24 months, which will enhance its performance compared to the industry. The company appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry price change during the quarter.

    2. Ashok Leyland:

    Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this commercial vehicles manufacturer with a target price of Rs 285. This indicates an upside of 20.8%. The analysts are positive about the medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV) industry in H2FY25, expecting improvement over the first half of the year. The analysts say, “The outlook for the MHCV sector is improving as election-related uncertainties have eased, and government infrastructure spending is expected to gradually increase. Also, as the festive season approaches, high freight rates are expected due to rising demand.” 

    Ashok Leyland (ALL) also anticipates growth in the MHCV segment due to a rise in replacement demand. The average age of trucks has increased to 10-11 years, up from the typical 7-8 years, highlighting a need for new vehicles. The growing acceptance of BS-VI trucks is expected to accelerate the replacement of older BS-IV models. The company is also focusing on improving its brand presence and expects a recovery in some of its international markets.

    ALL plans to enhance its product portfolio by introducing six new light commercial vehicles (LCVs) in FY25. The company has seen progress in the bus segment with new orders from state transportation units. The analysts are upbeat about the increase in replacement demand and expect revenue and PAT CAGR of 5.5% and 13% respectively, over FY25-26.

    3. PVR Inox:

    Anand Rathi initiates a ‘Buy’ call on this movies & entertainment company with a target price of Rs 2,065, implying a potential upside of 23.2%. Analysts Shobit Singhal and Pranay Shah highlight that franchise movies are increasingly popular with audiences because they are familiar with the stories. The company expects Q3FY25 to surpass the record revenue of its best quarter, Q2FY24, which saw hits like Gadar-2, OMG-2, and Oppenheimer. Upcoming releases such as Pushpa-2, Singham Returns, Joker, and Lord of the Rings are anticipated to drive revenue growth in Q3.

    PVR Inox has a durability score of 45 owing to a net loss in the past few quarters, but may have turnaround potential, backed by its momentum score of 64.2. The company plans to add 110-120 new screens in FY25, including 10-25% using asset-light models, where it earns a management fee of 8-9% of revenue and developers cover 70-80% of costs. The firm also plans to sell properties in Mumbai, Pune, and Vadodara, potentially raising Rs 300-400 crore to help reduce its current debt of Rs 1,700 crore.

    Singhal and Shah expect improved occupancy and ticket rates for PVR Inox, driven by a strong content lineup and a growing number of screens. They believe high-quality content will succeed regardless of budget or star power. But the threat of streaming continues to loom over the stock.

    4. Gulf Oil Lubricants India:

    ICICI Securities retains its ‘Buy’ rating on Gulf Oil Lubricants India with a target price of Rs 1,659, suggesting an upside of 16.5%. Analysts Probal Sen and Hardik Solanki note that this oil marketing & distribution company may dip in volume growth in Q2FY25 due to distributor-level inventory build-up for Adblue (a diesel exhaust fluid) and slower demand in the lubricant business. Despite this, Gulf Oil is on track to achieve 2-2.5 times industry growth over the next two years supported by the company's expanding distribution, new product launches, and brand investments. 

    Analysts Sen and Solanki project an improvement in margins to 13.2%/13.5%/13.5% for FY 25-27, up from the previous estimate of approximately 13.1%, supported by stable crude prices, premium product launches, and new segments. EV investments will provide diversification opportunities, cushioning the company from the internal combustion engine decline and are projected to generate Rs 7-8 billion in future revenues. The company is projected to achieve a 6-7% YoY growth in volumes for core lubricants, with revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 10.1% and 11.1%, respectively, over FY 25-27.

    5. Granules India:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceuticals company with a target price of Rs 680, indicating a potential upside of 24.2%. Analysts Tushar Manudhane, Akash Manish Dobhada and Viraj Shah highlighted recent United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) observations, including issues with equipment cleaning, air filters and non-dedicated equipment. The inspection also found problems with investigating out-of-specification results and managing documentation.

    Analysts say that despite these concerns, the company has a solid regulatory track record with 24 successful USFDA inspections since 2009, including six at the Gagillapur facility. The management is addressing the issues raised by the USFDA and is working to resolve them within the required timeline.

    Manudhane, Dobhada and Shah notes that the company recorded a 10% earnings CAGR over FY19-24. Analysts expect a 36% earnings CAGR over FY25-26 as the company focuses on building a niche pipeline in the oncology space, large volume products, innovative tech-based products and backward integration.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    17 Sep 2024

    Chart of the Week: Both domestic and foreign investors are sitting on hefty gains as Nifty touches new highs

    By Satyam Kumar

    Nifty50 hit an all-time high of 25,446 on Monday as India’s booming markets witnessed the fourth straight month of buying by foreign investors. The recent surge is driven by the likelihood that the US Fed will start the rate-cutting cycle tomorrow, September 18. Markets are rising due to expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) rather than 25 bps as estimated earlier, which will lead to lower interest rates and boost flows into emerging markets.

    Morgan Stanley Composite Index’s (MSCI) gauge of Indian shares is up 24% in 2024, in contrast to a 1.7% drop in a similar gauge for Chinese stocks. This has led to the rising influence of Indian stocks in the MSCI Global Standard Index, also known as the World Index. India currently holds a weightage of around 18%, second only to China, which has a weightage of approximately 25%. This marks a significant increase from levels below 10% at the start of 2021.

    This chart of the week takes a look at FII & DII activity in the equity segment on a monthly basis over the past decade. We have compared the investing preferences of Indian and foreign investors and how they have fared over the past decade.

    FIIs have almost quadrupled their investments in Indian equities over the past decade

    Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) assets under management (AUM) in the equity segment stood at Rs 75.5 lakh crore, up from Rs 19.6 lakh crore at the start of 2015. Between January 2015 and September 2024, FIIs were net buyers in 68 out of 117 months and net sellers in the remaining months. This indicates that FIIs were net buyers in 58% of the total months over the past decade.

    Over the past decade, FII's buy/sell decisions overlapped with positive and negative changes in the Nifty50 in 90 of the total 117 months. This implies that they bought whenever the markets rose and sold whenever the markets took a hit, and that too with an accuracy of 77%. This can be an interesting data point for traders and swing investors in their pursuit of timing the markets better. Another reason for this accuracy can be attributed to their higher stake of over 17% in the Indian equity markets. This results in their higher influence in the equity market, with prices moving in the direction they trade.

    India following the SIP mantra, DIIs were net buyers in 84% of the total months over the past decade

    Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) include entities like mutual funds, pension funds and insurance firms. Over the past decade, DIIs were net buyers in 98 of the total 117 months, while net sellers in the remaining months. On a monthly basis, they were net buyers in the market irrespective of where the market was headed. 

    Central Depository Services’ annual report highlights rising investor confidence in the Indian equity market. This depository company currently has a market share of 76% as of March ‘24 with 11.6 crore investor accounts. This implies that the company has added new investors at a CAGR of more than 25%.  According to data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India, retail investments via SIPs into mutual funds have increased at a CAGR of 24.1% over the past seven years.

    Over the long term, both FIIs and DIIs have gained on their investments, thanks to the economic growth

    According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, the broader equity market index, represented by the Nifty 500 index which consists of the top 500 listed Indian firms, has gained 273.8% over the past 10 years.

    DIIs, even with their strategy of investing in markets consistently, rather than timing their investments like FIIs do, made outstanding returns. This is because India’s economic growth has consistently outperformed in comparison to its peers post-pandemic, highlighted by the GDP growth rate of 8.2% in FY24.

    FIIs, on the other hand, have also gained on their investments significantly over the past years. The payoff has led them to consistently increase India’s weightage in their portfolio in comparison to other emerging market peers like Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, etc. On top of that, foreign investors have witnessed a better risk-reward environment as the rupee has stabilized in comparison to the US dollar over the past few years. 

    Stable political environment boosts investor confidence in the Indian equity market

    FIIs divested over Rs 30,000 crore in the months before the election in June. However, they have re-entered the markets since then with consistent buying in the following months, as the BJP-led NDA alliance formed a government with Narendra Modi re-elected as Prime Minister for a third term.

    In recent years, India has made strides in improving the ease of doing business, with reforms in taxation, labour laws, and corporate governance. This stability has attracted increasing FII inflows, further strengthening the Indian equity market. Initiatives like Make in India, Digital India, and Atmanirbhar Bharat have fueled investments in manufacturing, technology, and innovation, promoting growth and attracting both domestic and foreign investors.

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    The Baseline
    13 Sep 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 13, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 13, 2024

    1. Suzlon Energy:

    This heavy electrical equipment company has surged 9.4% over the past week and touched a new 52-week high of Rs 86 on Thursday. The rise comes after it secured a significant 1,166 MW order from NTPC's arm, NTPC Green Energy, making it the largest wind energy order in India. In addition, Morgan Stanley reiterated its ‘Overweight’ stance on the company after the order win. The brokerage noted this PSU contract as a major milestone for the company, as it was previously not allowed to bid because of its negative net worth.

    The order requires Suzlon to install 370 S144 WTGs (wind turbine generators) with a rated capacity of around 3.2 MW each, which will generate electricity to power 30 lakh households. The project will be executed across three sites in Gujarat and also includes erection and commissioning, as well as operations & maintenance services post?commissioning. With this, the company’s order book nears 5 GW. As of June 2024, the company’s order book stood at 3.8 GW, 5x the FY24 WTG volume of 710MW. 

    In Q1FY25, Suzlon’s net profit had jumped almost 3X to Rs 302.3 crore, helped by lower finance costs and foreign exchange shifts. Revenue increased by 50.1% YoY to Rs 2,044.4 crore. The wind turbine generator segment (which contributes over 70% to the revenue) grew by 86.3% YoY during the quarter. 

    India's wind energy sector has been witnessing a recovery, due to rising power needs, wind-focused tenders, and growing industrial demand, offering opportunities for domestic players like Suzlon Energy. JP Chalasani, the Group CEO, said, “We anticipate an increase in wind installations in India between 5 to 5.5 GW in FY25, potentially reaching up to 9 GW in future years”.  

    Morgan Stanley believes the large contract from NTPC will enhance Suzlon's earnings visibility for FY26-27. It has a target price of Rs 73, which the stock has already surpassed. The company is trading in the Strong Sell Zone, indicating that it is currently trading above its historical PE.

    2. Divi’s Laboratories:

    This pharmaceutical manufacturer surged 7.4% over the past week after the US House of Representatives approved the Biosecure Act. The bill is yet to be cleared by the US Senate. The legislation bans American firms from partnering with certain Chinese biotech and drug manufacturers over the next eight years, in a bid to prevent the potential misuse of US genomic data. This will prompt a major shift in the pharmaceutical supply chain.

    Analysts expect the introduction of the Act by the US to accelerate the growth of CDMOs (contract development and manufacturing organisations) and CROs (contract research organisations) in India. According to Mordor Intelligence, the contract manufacturing segment is estimated to be worth $22.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $44.6 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 14.7%.

    In Q1FY25, the company reported an 18% YoY revenue growth to Rs 2,197 crore, with net profit rising 20.8% YoY to Rs 430 crore. Exports accounted for about 86% of the revenue, with 70% coming from Europe and the US. The product mix between generics and custom synthesis (contract manufacturing) stood at 51% and 49%, respectively.

    CEO Kiran Divi said, “With the Biosecure Act, we are now seeing more orders for Phase-II and Phase-III molecules than before, along with significant interest on the generic side.” She also highlighted that the company is planning a capacity expansion, with an investment of Rs 650 crore to Rs 700 crore.

    KR Choksey maintains a ‘Hold’ rating on Divi's Laboratories as its Q1 results came in slightly below estimates due to weakness in generic pricing. They expect growth in custom synthesis and new generics to drive margins, and forecast revenue and net profit CAGR of 11% and 23.1%, respectively, over FY25-26.

    3. Tata Steel:

    This iron and steel company jumped 2.4% to Rs 152.4 per share on Thursday after it secured a £500 million (approx. Rs 5,475.1 crore) grant from the UK government to support a £1.25 billion green steel project in Port Talbot, South Wales. The project involves installing an Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) at the Port Talbot steelworks. The EAF will significantly reduce carbon emissions, both for the UK as a whole and for the Port Talbot plant. The project is expected to preserve 5,000 jobs in the UK steel industry that were impacted when operations were halted in July 2024 due to the company’s initiative to transition to green steel production. Tata Steel is offering voluntary redundancy, support packages, and paid retraining programs for affected employees.

    In Q1FY25, the company had reported a 51.4% YoY increase in consolidated net profit, reaching Rs 959.6 crore, as operations in the Netherlands returned to normal levels. The profit growth was also supported by lower expenses and reduced raw material costs. Consolidated total revenue stood at Rs 54,771.4 crore, a 7.9% decline YoY due to subdued steel demand across many regions. Both revenue and net profit fell short of Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 2.7% and 32.2%, respectively.

    The management reported a buildup in working capital during the quarter, mainly driven by stock accumulation in the UK ahead of the closure of heavy-end facilities, as well as seasonal factors in India. Koushik Chatterjee, Executive Director and CFO of Tata Steel said, “We are focused on optimizing working capital. The net debt stands at about Rs. 82,162 crores and our group liquidity remains strong at about Rs. 36,460 crores, which includes about Rs. 10,799 crores of cash and cash equivalents.” 

    BOB Capital Markets maintains a 'Hold' rating on Tata Steel but has raised the target price from Rs 170 to Rs 175, indicating an expected upside of 7%. They believe the stock to be overvalued now, however, they are confident in the company's ability to grow its earnings.

    4. Global Health:

    This healthcare facilities company rose by 3.8% over the past month. However  the company had announced last month that they are set to construct a 500-bed super specialty hospital in Mumbai with a Rs 1,200 crore investment. The project, financed equally by debt and internal funds, is expected to be completed in 3-4 years. In July 2024, the land for the hospital was acquired in Oshiwara through a public auction. Once finished, it will become the second largest private hospital, following the 750-bed Kokilaben Dhirubhai Ambani Hospital & Medical Research Institute (KDAH).

    For Q1FY25, the company’s net profit rose by 4.2% YoY to 106.3 crore, while its revenue rose by 11.1% YoY due to improved traction in matured hospitals. The firm beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 2.1% but missed the net profit estimate by 11.7% due to a flat Average Revenue per Occupied Bed (ARPOB) and a slight increase in occupancies. ARPOB increased to Rs 64,035, up 1.4% YoY, while occupancies improved by 70bps YoY. The low occupancies were primarily due to under-development hospitals. The stock appears in a screener for stocks with broker upgrades.

    Analysts report that the company’s established hospitals are experiencing healthy annual volume growth of 7-8%, with a particularly strong performance over the past 2-3 months. While volume growth might slow after FY26 due to limited bed expansion, opportunities for bed optimization could still boost overall sales and EBITDA for these mature hospitals. The company, with a robust presence in northern and central India, currently has approximately 3,440 beds as of Q1FY25. by the end of FY25. The company’s management aims to grow their capacity to ~5,173 beds over the longer term. Area wise they plan to add 50 beds in Gurugram and Lucknow each, 150 beds in Patna, and 300 beds in Noida by the end of FY25. 

    Motilal Oswal has maintained a “Buy” rating on Global Health, with a target price of Rs 1,380. The brokerage anticipates an 18% earnings CAGR from FY25-26. It notes that, while MEDANTA's ongoing efforts like expanding its operations in Lucknow and Patna, increasing bed capacity, and hiring additional clinical talent may lead to moderate earnings in FY25, robust earnings growth will follow from FY26 onwards.

    5. JSW Infrastructure:

    This port operator rose 7.4% over the past week after it approved a capital expenditure of Rs 2,359 crore for expanding capacity at its Jaigarh and Dharamtar ports. The expansion will boost the company's total cargo-handling capacity from 170 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 400 MTPA by 2030, with Jaigarh's capacity increasing to 70 MTPA and Dharamtar's to 55 MTPA. The Dharamtar port expansion focuses on handling increased cargo volumes from an anchor customer associated with a new 5 MTPA steel plant in Dolvi, Maharashtra.

    JSW Infrastructure acquired a 70.4% stake in Navkar Corp for Rs 1,012 crore during Q1FY25. The company plans to become a complete logistics solutions provider by leveraging Navkar's existing resources, without requiring additional capital expenditure. CFO Lalit Singhvi said, "While the return on capital employed (ROCE) may see a temporary decline due to these investments, we expect it to recover to 18-19% in the long term as asset utilization improves and synergies with other group businesses come into play over the next 2-3 years.”

    The company has outperformed the marine port services industry by 9.5% over the previous quarter. JSW Infra’s volumes grew 9% YoY to 27.8 million tonnes, despite its Dolvi plant shutdown. Singhvi explained that the 9% YoY growth was largely due to new acquisitions that were not part of the business last year. He also expects overall growth to be around 10-12% as the impact of these new assets fully reflects and existing operations continue to grow.

    Jefferies initiates a ‘Buy’ on the firm with a target price of Rs 375, implying a potential upside of 13%. The brokerage believes the company’s recent entry into logistics through Navkar’s acquisition will drive significant growth. It expects JSW Infra's growth over 20% from current levels, with existing volumes showing strong capacity use.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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