Transport Corporation of India Ltd. share price forecast
The 12 reports from 4 analysts offering long term price targets
for Transport Corporation of India Ltd. have an average target of 253.00. The consensus estimate
represents an upside of 1.85%
from the last price of 248.40.
Going forward, ease in Covid-19 restrictions, pick in freight operations and festive season, we expect revival in revenue growth. Focus on client addition in E-commerce, pick-up in seaway business, demand from warehousing space, faster adoption of e-way bill and gradual pick-up in Auto sector will drive growth. We remain positive on TCI given its strong presence in warehousing space, multimodal logistics services and supply chain management....
Freight operations saw healthy uptick in volumes (reached 85-90%), in line with the E-Way bill data generation (volumes normalised from September onwards). SCM business surprised with the recovery (2% YoY growth) and numbers touching highs of FY19. TCI saw growth in the e-commerce, FMCG sector along with demand revival in the automotive sector (~80% of SCM). The pick-up in demand was primarily due to festive season and is expected to revive the sector. Seaways also clocked 9% YoY growth with better fleet utilisation, on the back of strong growth in the western sector....
For Q1FY21, both freight and supply chain segments experienced heavy disruptions. While the supply chain segment, which largely caters to the automobile segment, continues to scale up with the sustained revival in the operations and demand for the automobile sector, the freight segment is increasingly seeing its operations normalising (E-way bill data for July showed 80-90% normalisation). The shipping division, similarly, de-grew 14% owing to lower fleet utilisation. Due to the capability to serve diverse sectors in its freight segment, TCI increased exposure to providing logistics...
TCI Express' (TCIEL) revenues were below I-direct estimates but it performed better than our expectation on the profitability front owing to reduction in certain fixed costs mainly due to its asset light model. Revenues for Q1FY21 de-grew 65% YoY to | 89 crore (I-direct estimate: | 102 crore) EBITDA margins fell 930 bps YoY to 2.3%, better than our expectation of loss at the EBITDA level. EBITDA for the quarter de-grew 93% YoY to | 2 crore (I-direct estimate: loss of | 8 crore). The company has been able to lower the fixed cost by negotiating with lessors of its branch premises across...
TCI's performance was hit in the Q4FY20 with the outburst of COVID-19. Despite facing numerous challenges, the company resumed most of the operations in coastal shipping, warehousing & distribution and goods transportation during the lockdown period, in a phased manner. The company said that it is still ascertaining the medium to long term impact of pandemic. Further MD & CMD will forgo 3 month salary. The management expects new trends post COVID-19 like (1) Decline in touchpoints for cargo and reduced inter-state movements using the multimodal transport (2)...
However, management focus on client addition in E-commerce, demand from warehousing space, faster adoption of e-way bill and gradual pick-up in Auto sector will drive growth. We reiterate our positive stance on TCI given its strong presence in...
TCI reported a weak quarter. Revenues declined by 10% YoY driven by sharp decline of 22% YoY in Supply Chain Solution while Seaways/Freight division reported -4%/-1% YoY decline. Freight...
FY20 has been a tough year in terms of revenue growth owing to decline in supply chain solutions (SCS) division revenues due to extended slowdown in auto sector. SCS division revenues declined 9% YoY to | 925 crore. Also the shipping division in spite of addition of a ship grew just 3% owing to lower fleet utilisation. TCI during the lockdown realigned its business and operated its branches, routes to the extent permitted under the various state/central government notifications. Also, post announcement of lockdown, TCI increased exposure to providing logistics services to ecommerce and FMCG sector for transportation of essential goods in line...
Revenue growth in 9MFY20 was slower than usual at ~5% (FY17-19 CAGR of 17%) owing to slower economic growth leading to lower volumes. However, the company expects volume growth to pick up in the next few quarters driven by better traction from large customers and continued addition of new customers from the SME segment. The key positive has been improvement in margins in spite of a tough market scenario. For 9MFY20, the EBITDA margin has improved 70 bps YoY to 11.9%. We expect the company to report a revival in revenue growth from FY21 driven by new...
Revenue growth was flat YoY, as supply chain business was impacted by slowdown in Auto sector. But PAT grew by robust 29% YoY on account of tax cut. EBITDA margins improved by 40bps YoY to 9% on account of lower cost....
Revival in SCS segment key to positive stock performance TCI provides integrated logistics services through multiple modes such as air, road, railways and sea via 900+ IT enabled offices, 4000+ employees with 9000 trucks and trailers in operation and seven ships with a capacity of 91622 DWT and 12 million square feet (msf) of warehouse space. FY20 is expected to deliver mere ~3-4% growth at a blended level vs. 21% and 17% in FY18 and FY19, respectively, led by subdued growth in SCS segment (extended slowdown in the auto sector :~80% of SCS pie). However, with...
Transport Corporation of India (TCI) reported 5% revenue growth. The freight (~46% of standalone revenues) and shipping division (16%) grew 7%, 10%, respectively, whereas supply chain division (39%) remained flat. EBITDA margins improved 36 bps to 9.2%, mainly due to lower operating cost to sales ratio (80.7% vs. 81.1% in Q1FY19). Subsequently, resultant EBITDA, PAT grew 10%, 6%, respectively. The company has adopted IndAS 116 leases standard, which had an insignificant impact on profitability. The management expects demand recovery in forthcoming quarters, helped by factors like stable crude oil prices, moderate inflation with expected...
Revenue grew by 14% YoY, whereas PAT grew by robust 34% YoY. EBITDA grew by 27% YoY, while margins improved by 110bps YoY to 11.1% on account of lower cost. Going forward, e-way bill, higher axle load permit and stabilization of GST is expected to boost logistic players business . Given its strong presence in warehousing space, multimodal logistics services and supply chain management, TCI will be a key beneficiary from revival in the logistics sector. We factor earnings to grow by 18% CAGR over FY19-FY21E. We roll forward to FY21E and value TCI at P/E multiple of 15x with...
Major Central banks led by Fed, BoE and BoJ raised concerns over global growth and hinted at monetary easing. This led to lower yields across the world. US$ too fell as a result. EUR gained after flash PMI data surprised positively. However, oil prices rose by more than 5% after tiff between US and Iran. Domestic yields too fell as RBI minutes hinted at further rate cuts to support growth. INR appreciated. However, Indian equity markets under-performed....
