Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd. share price forecast

Alternate Stock Idea: Besides Gulf Oil, in our oil & gas coverage we also like IGL. Indraprastha Gas (IGL) is one of India's leading CGD companies, which primarily operates in NCT of Delhi and will benefit from stricter environmental regulations in Delhi. Continued capex, newer areas and CNG...

However, the pace of transition is expected to be gradual with ICE engines remaining dominant in the near to medium term, particularly in India. We hosted the HSIE Autos and Mobility Conference, which was attended by five auto OEMs, five parts suppliers, and three startups, amongst others. The key themes that emerged from the conference were electrification and diversification, as the industry is preparing to diversify beyond combustion engines. OEMs are increasingly investing in EV and hybrid technology while auto parts companies are seeking to de-risk their customer mix by foraying into the non-auto space including defence, aerospace, industrial and renewable segments.

Gulf Oil's raw materials cost (base oil prices) is highly dependent on the movement of crude oil prices. While the rupee has weakened, crude oil prices have fallen sharply compared to Q3CY20, which led to a drop in base oil costs YoY. However, realisation was down | 2/litre to | 146/litre. As a result, gross margins registered a fall of | 4.4/litre YoY to | 70.1/litre. Subsequently, EBITDA was down 7.1% YoY to | 25.3/litre. GOL has hiked prices across segments on account of increase in crude oil prices over past few months. The competition has also increased prices which gives visibility...

Maintain BUY. Gulf Oils 4QFY20 adj. volumes declined ~13% YoY amidst the downturn in the auto industry and COVID-19 impact. However, we expect Gulf Oil to outperform the industry on the back of expansion of its distribution network and improving product/customer mix. The company is expected to gain market share in the PCMO segment as customers shift towards personal mobility.

We reiterate BUY and expect Gulf Oil to outperform industry leader Castrol. However, we believe that the co's performance is now impacted by the slowing industry scenario and moderating growth rates (volumes have declined over Jun-Dec19). We trim down our earnings by ~6% over FY20-22E and reduce our target multiple to 20x (vs. 22x earlier) to factor in the above. Also, the recovery in factory fill volumes is likely to be delayed. Key risk: Faster than expected adoption of EVs. Gulf Oils 3QFY20 adj. volumes declined 2% YoY amidst the downturn in the auto industry. However, EBITDA margin surprised at 18.4% (+260bps YoY) owing to stable input costs. Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 995 based on Dec-21 EPS.

Maintain BUY as (1) Gulf Oil is significantly outgrowing the industry leader Castrol (over FY16-19 Gulf's vols have risen 17% vs. 3% for the latter) and is expected to grow ahead of the industry over FY20-21 (2) New capacities, expanding distribution network and improving product/customer mix will help from hereon and (3) Diversification into the battery segment will drive growth in the medium term. Despite weak macros in 2QFY20, stable input costs and improving realizations (due to changing product mix) has helped Gulf Oil to deliver EBITDA margin of 18% (+90bps YoY, vs. our estimate of 17%). We expect the co to deliver 3x the industry growth as it expands into new segments and ramps up its distribution reach. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 1,145 (@22x Sep-21 EPS).

We reiterate BUY as (1) After significantly outgrowing the industry leader Castrol (over FY16-19 Gulf's vols have risen 17% vs. 3% for the latter), we expect Gulf to grow ahead of the industry over FY20-21. Growth will be driven by increased capacity (new capacity of 150mn KL p.a. in 19), expanding distribution network (~70k retailers vs. 150k for Castrol) and improving product/customer mix (2) Gulf is diversifying its portfolio by entering the battery segment which will drive growth in the medium term (3) The co enjoys robust return ratios with ROEs in excess of 30%. (4) Faster than expected adoption of EVs will be a key risk to our thesis. 1QFY20 operating performance was healthy as EBITDA margins expanded ~120/70bp YoY/QoQ to 17.7% driven by an improved product mix. We expect Gulf Oil to deliver 3-4x the industry growth as the co expands into new segments and ramps up its distribution reach. We have a TP of Rs 1,050 based on 22x FY21 EPS.

Gulf Oil Lubricants reported Q1FY20 results largely in line with our estimates although volume growth was marginally below estimates of 10% and were at 7.5% YoY (core volume growth of 10% in line with estimate). Revenues increased 12.9% to | 440.7 crore, in line with our estimate of | 449.3 crore. EBITDA per litre was at ~| 26.3 per litre (Q1FY19: | 23.5 per litre), above our estimate of | 24.5 per litre on account of a better sales mix. Subsequently, EBITDA during the quarter increased 20.6% YoY to | 77.9 crore, above our...

Volume traction strong, margins expanded. Recommend Accumulate. GOLIL's revenue and profitability were in line with our estimates. Volume in Q1FY20 grew 7.5% YoY. (Core volumes grew 9.8%). While economic factors were slowing down and there was a slowdown in auto sales, GOLIL outperformed the industry in Q1FY19. Sales came from personal mobility, industrial and infrastructure segment. DEO segment had a slowdown due to slowdown in auto sector. Gross margins improved by 280 bps due to better product mix, segment mix, better realisations (retail price hike taken...

Over FY15-19, Gulf's volume/ revenue/EBITDA/PAT has grown by 17/19/21/20% vs. market leader Castrol's 3/6/4/4%. Gulf's superior growth is led by increase in capacity (75 to 90mn KL p.a. in FY16 and 150mn KL in FY19), expansion in distribution reach by ~15% p.a. (~70k retailers vs. 150k for Castrol), and improving product and customer (B2C) mix. We reiterate our Buy, as Gulf's growth story is solid led by a focused management. We expect market-share gains to be driven by an expanding distribution network. Short-term weakness, if any should be an add-on opportunity. Our recent meeting with the management of Gulf Oil reinforces our view about the companys industry leading volume growth and superior execution. We expect Gulf to continue to deliver 3-4x industry volume growth and gain market share. Reiterate BUY; TP of Rs 1,052 @ 22x FY21E EPS.

Gulf Oil Lubricant's Q4FY19 numbers were below our estimates on account of a slowdown in volume growth due to weak auto sales numbers. Volume growth in Q4FY19 was at 10% YoY, below our estimate of 14% YoY. Hence, revenue growth was below our estimate of | 448.2 crore and grew 16.8% YoY to | 436.2 crore. EBITDA per litre was at | 24.9 per litre (Q3FY19: | 24 per litre) below our estimate of | 27.5 per litre on account of higher-thanexpected operational expenses and negative operating leverage. Subsequently, EBITDA during the quarter increased 18% YoY to | 74.2 crore, below our estimate of | 85.1 crore. PAT increased 15% YoY at | 47.6...

Volume traction strong, margin to bounce back. Maintain BUY. GOLIL's revenue and profitability were in line with our estimates. Volume in Q4FY19 grew 10% YoY. While economic factors were slowing down and there was a slowdown in auto sales, GOLIL outperformed the industry by 4-5x in Q4FY19. Sales came from personal mobility, industrial and infrastructure segment. DEO segment had a slowdown. Core sales growth for FY19 was 18% YoY, which came from new customers and new segments. GOLIL has taken adequate price hikes of 2-3% each in December,...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Gulf Oil Lubricant's Q3FY19 numbers were above our estimates driven by higher-than-expected YoY volume growth. Revenues...

We have revised our FY20/21E earnings to factor in Gulf's healthy volume trajectory. Maintain BUY with revised TP of Rs 1,037 @ 22x Dec-20E EPS. Gulf Oil Lubricants (GOL) registered healthy volume growth of 20% YoY (34% including a one-off institutional order). Revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew by ~30/18/17% YoY to Rs 4.6/0.7/0.5bn. Gross/EBITDA margins were down by ~500/150bps to 43.3/15.8% on account of low-margin institutional order. Adjusted for this order revenue/EBITDA growth would be ~21/18% with ~30bps margin decline YoY.

We hosted the GOLIL management team Mr Ravi Chawla (MD) and Mr Manish Gangwal (CFO) in Mumbai for investor interaction. Our interaction has reinforced our belief in the management team. According to the management, lubricant business will continue to be driven by distribution,...

We hosted the GOLIL management team Mr Ravi Chawla (MD) and Mr Manish Gangwal (CFO) in Mumbai for investor interaction. Our interaction has reinforced our belief in the management team. According to the management, lubricant business will continue to be driven by distribution,...

We initiate coverage on Gulf Oil Lubricants India (GOLI), with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs1,150 (over 50% upside). We value GOLI at 22x FY21E EPS on the back of 18% EPS CAGR and 30%+ ROE during FY18-21. GOLI recorded a robust 3-year volume CAGR of 12% despite major economy-wide disruptions such as the demonetization and GST. In 1HFY19, core growth accelerated...

Maintain BUY with revised TP of Rs 946 @ 22x Sep-20E EPS Gulf Oil Lubricants (Gulf Oil) 2QFY19 was healthy on operational front. This was led by robust volume growth of 22% (30% including one-off low-margin orders from govt. agencies). Revenue grew by 29%, EBITDA 15% and APAT 13%. RPAT was flat as included Rs 80mn forex loss impact in interest costs.

Volume growth in Q2FY19 was at 30% YoY (core volume growth:22%), above our estimate of 13% YoY. EBITDA/litre was at | 24 per litre (Q2FY18: | 27 per litre) marginally above our estimate of | 23.6/litre. Subsequently, EBITDA during the quarter increased 15.4% YoY to | 71.4 crore, above our estimate of | 61.3 crore PAT remained flattish at | 40.3 crore (our estimate: | 38.3 crore). PAT growth was lower in comparison to EBITDA growth mainly on account of higher interest costs (due to forex losses)...