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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    06 Apr 2023
    Screener of the week: Finance sector stocks with high momentum and positive forecaster estimates for Q4FY23

    Screener of the week: Finance sector stocks with high momentum and positive forecaster estimates for Q4FY23

    By Abdullah Shah

    While brokerages are getting squeezed, the overall finance sector is a different story - with multiple stocks analysts are bullish on.

    This screener shows stocks from the banking and finance sector with momentum scores greater than 50, and a strong Q4FY23 result outlook - where estimates for quarterly YoY revenue growth are higher than 10%, and estimates for quarterly net profit growth are more than the previous quarter.

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the banking industry with 12 bank stocks. Major stocks in the screener are Shriram Finance, Karur Vysya Bank, Federal Bank, IDFC First Bank, ICICI Bank and Bank of Baroda.

    Shriram Finance has the highest YoY revenue growth estimates of 71.3% for Q4FY23, according to Trendlyne’s forecaster. The NBFC has a Trendlyne momentum score of 52.7. Over the past quarter, the lender has fallen 4.7%, but has outperformed its industry by 320 bps.

    ICICI Bank has a revenue growth estimate of 29.5% YoY from forecaster for Q4FY23. The bank has a Trendlyne momentum score of 53.4 and has outperformed the banking industry by 5.8 percentage points. 

    You can find more screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    05 Apr 2023
    Analysts' choice: 5 stocks analysts are bullish on

    Analysts' choice: 5 stocks analysts are bullish on

    By Abhiraj Panchal
    1. Rainbow Childrens Medicare: ICICI Direct initiates a ‘Buy’ call on this healthcare facilities company with a target price of Rs 840. This indicates an upside of 13.6%. Analysts Siddhant Khandekar, Kushal Shah and Utkarsh Jain say that the company has expertise in the most case-sensitive healthcare group of pediatric and perinatal care. They believe that it makes the company “a standout player”.  The healthcare company has planned to expand its presence by adding 850 beds across cities in the next four to five years. 

    Khandekar, Shah and Jain say, “The company’s hub and spoke model will aid growth and accessibility for patients.” Rainbow Childrens Medicare also follows a doctor engagement model where most of its core specialists work at the hospitals on a full-time retainer basis, which the analysts believe has led to a high degree of full-time doctor retention. They expect revenues to touch Rs 1,098 crore, showing an improvement of 13% YoY in FY23. 

    1. Embassy Office Parks REIT: ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this REIT with a target price of Rs 425, indicating an upside of 35.3%. The company's board has approved the acquisition of Embassy Business Hub, a property under development, for an enterprise value of Rs 330 crore. The acquisition will be funded through debt at an interest cost of 8.1% per annum. Analyst Adhidev Chattopadhyay expects that the rent from phase 1 will commence in Q1FY25 and phase 2 in Q1FY28, and it will derive an enterprise value of Rs 310 crore at an 8% cap rate for the acquisition, which he believes is value-neutral. 

    The analyst remains cautious as the FY23 Union Budget carried a proposal to make the debt repayment/capital return portion of listed REITs taxable from FY24 and currently, 40% of the NDCF distribution profile for Embassy REIT comes from debt repayment which will become taxable from FY24. He concludes, “there may be some relaxation in the final version of the Budget proposal, with debt repayment not being taxed upfront,” for which we await final clarity. 

    1. HG Infra Engineering: IDBI Cap maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this construction and engineering company with a target price of Rs 1,067. This indicates an upside of 34.8%. Analysts Vishal Periwal and Prachi Kadam visited HG Infra’s Ganga expressway project site and interacted with the execution team and management. HG Infra was awarded the Ganga expressway project in Q1FY23, with a project cost of Rs 4,400 crore. The company scheduled the completion by January 2025 but the analysts say, “it is planning on early completion in 24 months, post which they will be eligible for an early completion bonus of Rs 50 crore.”

    HG Infra has maintained its revenue target of growing 25% and 22% YoY in FY23 and FY24, respectively. The analysts expect margins to be in the range of 15%-16%. According to them, it is also eyeing order inflows of Rs 8,000-10,000 crore in FY24. 

    1. InterGlobe Aviation: Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this airliner with a target price of Rs 2,347. This implies an upside of 23.5%. Analysts Jinesh Joshi and Stuti Beria believe that the company is well-placed to capitalise on India’s rapidly growing aviation market as it has a 56% market share in India. They are also positive about the management’s plans to increase the fleet size to 350, expand the network to 115 destinations and increase carrying capacity by FY24. 

    Joshi and Beria believe that the company is “well placed to strongly benefit from higher capacity deployment, network expansion in domestic as well as international markets, lower crude prices and superior industry cost structure in the current environment.” The analysts add that the management’s plan to increase international destinations will drive market share expansion. They expect the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 40% over FY22-25. 

    1. Dalmia Bharat: Axis Direct keeps its ‘Buy’ rating on this cement manufacturer and raises its target price to Rs 2,260 from Rs 2,120. This indicates an upside of 14.6%. Analysts Uttam Kumar Srimal and Shikha Doshi believe that the company’s strategy to continue exiting from its non-core businesses augurs well, as it can focus solely on its cement business. They are also positive about the firm’s capacity expansion plans, and expect its overall cement capacity to touch 49 metric tonnes per annum in FY24. 

    Srimal and Doshi expect demand for cement to grow at a CAGR of 7-8% over FY22-25 on the back of the increased government capex on infrastructure and housing. They believe “with the commissioning of new capacity and cost optimization measures'', the company will be a major beneficiary of the Centre’s infrastructure push. The analysts estimate the cement manufacturer’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 12% over FY22-25.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    31 Mar 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Bharat Electronics: This public sector defence company has bagged multiple orders worth nearly Rs 16,300 crore in March for the supply of indigenously developed equipment and electronic warfare systems to the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force. These order wins come after the company’s order inflow fell to a two-year low of Rs 3,500 crore during the first nine months of FY23 due to approval delays.

    The company is expected to be a major beneficiary of the Centre’s push for reducing defence imports, as it commands a market share of 37% in the Indian defence sector. According to Geojit BNP Paribas, the company’s order book backlog of Rs 50,116 crore provides strong revenue visibility over the next three years. The company shows up in a screener for stocks with consistently high returns over the past five years. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, the consensus recommendation from 20 analysts is ‘Buy’.

    While the management is optimistic about growth in orders from the defence sector, it plans to diversify into non-defence sectors like healthcare, airports, infrastructure and smart city projects. The firm’s long-term plan is to increase the contribution of its non-defence segment to 25% from 10% of total revenue.

    With the rise in demand for locally manufactured defence systems, the company expects these orders to increase in the coming years. To be able to meet the upcoming requirements, it aims to make five new facilities operational in the next two-three years. It has budgeted a capex of Rs 600 and Rs 600-800 crore for FY23 and FY24 respectively. The management expects revenue to grow in the range of 15-20% in FY24, led by large orders and commissioning of new facilities.

    1. Zydus Lifesciences: This pharmaceutical company reached its 52-week high of Rs 493.2 per share on Wednesday after receiving two US FDA approvals on the same day. The company shows up in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

    Zydus Lifesciences received final approval from the US FDA for its loperamide hydrochloride capsules, used for the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease, on Tuesday. According to IQVIA, the capsule has had an estimated annual sales of $34.7 million in the year ended January 2023 in the US.

    The company received final approval from the US FDA for its levothyroxine sodium injection as well on Tuesday. The capsules, used for the treatment of myxedema coma, will be manufactured at its facility in Jarod, Gujarat.

    However, it’s not all good news for the company. Earlier in the week (on Sunday), the drug manufacturer announced that it had recalled 55,000 bottles of colchicine tablets after it received an out-of-specification (OOS) result during release testing.

    According to Sharekhan, the drug manufacturer stands to gain from strong product launches and volume growth in the US market, as its revenue of Rs 1,925 crore in Q3FY23 contributed to 44% of the total revenues. The brokerage estimates the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 7.5% during FY22-25 and maintains its ‘buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 572. Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates its revenue to rise by 9.9% in FY23.

    1. Allcargo Logistics: This logistics company rose over 2.4% on Tuesday after announcing its plan to acquire a 30% stake in Gati-Kintetsu Express for Rs 406.7 crore. Allcargo will buy shares from KWE Singapore (26% stake) and KWE India (4% stake). Gati-Kintetsu Express is a JV of Allcargo’s group company Gati and Kintetsu World Express. Gati deals in overseas courier services, while KWE is a Japanese freight forwarding company.

    Allcargo has been on an acquisition spree over the past few months. The company had also bought the remaining 38.9% stake from its partner, ACCI, in the contract logistics business at an enterprise value of Rs 373 crore earlier this month.

    In January, it bought a 75% stake in German cargo consolidator Fair Trade for 12 million euros, according to reports. Speaking to the media about the company’s recent acquisitions, Ravi Jakhar, the Chief Strategy Officer said the acquisitions were in line with the company’s strategy to simplify the organisational structure, enhance its growth in the domestic supply chain, and strengthen its position in key strategic markets.

    Apart from the acquisitions, the company sold 90% of its logistics parks business to private equity firm Blackstone in February. Allcargo will also sell its non-core customs business.

    However, despite a recent rise in its share price, the company is still down 27.3% from its 52-week high of Rs 495 in November 2022. But, it ranks high on Trendlyne’s checklist with a score of 73.9% and shows up in a screener for stocks with high Piotroski scores.

    1. Jindal Stainless: This metals & mining stock rose 4% in early trade on Wednesday after it announced an acquisition of a 49% stake in Indonesia-based Nickel Pig Iron Co. However, it pared the gains and closed 0.2% lower. Jindal Stainless (JSL) plans to invest $157 million (Rs 1,290 crore) over the next two years to build a facility with a production capacity of 2 lakh metric tonnes. The company’s Managing Director Abhyuday Jindal says that not having backward integration for nickel is a big risk for the nation as we face a deficiency in nickel reserves.

    This acquisition will help the company secure the supply of nickel, a critical raw material used in making alloys. Jindal Stainless has a series of other projects lined up. The company has announced an investment of Rs 120 crore to set up rooftop solar projects in Jajpur and Hisar facilities.

    Sector growth looks decent for JSL as Bank of America Securities has given a positive stance for the near term. It expects steel demand to bounce back, resulting in higher prices. It also expects export opportunities to improve as export duty on steel has been scrapped.

    Although the stock has fallen 5% in the past week, it gained 23.4% in the past three months and outperformed its sector by 3.7% in the past month. Jindal Stainless was a multi-bagger stock last year (gaining nearly 199%) but gained only 43.5% this year. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates a 5.7% increase in its annual revenue in FY23.

    1. Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries: Thispharmaceutical giant expects its revenue to take a hit after reporting a ransomware attack on its system in early March. It reported a breach of some files and theft of company and personal data, impacting operations. The firm has isolated its network and started the recovery process. It is also evaluating the expenses for litigation and insurance. The stockfell nearly 3% the following week.

    The firm did a series of acquisitions in Q4FY23, including a 60% stake in Vivaldis Health and Foods for Rs 143 crore in March, US-based Concert Pharmaceuticals for USD 576 million and a minority stake in Agasta Software and Remidio Innovative Solutions.

    Lately, Sun Pharma has been focusing on the domestic market to increase its market share. The US and India each contribute 31% of revenue to the company, while emerging markets contribute 19%. It has nearly 9% share of the pharma market in India. Market share growth coupled with new launches for India formulations have led top-line growth in Q3FY23. Focusing on the global specialty portfolio also led to an increase in the margins. The specialty portfolio contributes nearly 13% of its revenue. The stock shows up in a screener for top Indian exporters among listed companies.

    According to the management, its US portfolio is expected to grow 4.6%, while the India division should rise 7%. Its chronic portfolio is also expected to see strong growth led by new launches.

    ICICI Securities says Sun Pharmaceuticals’ India business will outperform the industry, and global specialty sales will help margin expansion. Meanwhile, profitability will be slightly offset by rising R&D spend.


    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    31 Mar 2023

    Number of multibagger stocks fell sharply over the past one year

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    The Baseline
    30 Mar 2023
    Screener of the week: Best and worst performing sectors in Q4FY23, and their top companies

    Screener of the week: Best and worst performing sectors in Q4FY23, and their top companies

    By Abdullah Shah

    The first few months of 2023 have been anything but positive as the Nifty 500 fell by nearly 8% in the past 90 days. This week, we take a look at the outperforming and underperforming sectors over the past quarter and their best and worst-performing companies. 

    Sectors like food, beverages & tobacco, healthcare equipment and consumer durables have surpassed the Nifty 500, despite a weak quarter for markets. These are defensive sectors which remain stable regardless of the economy, as consumer spending here stays steady. The general industrials sector returned 2.9% in this period, backed by the capex push of the central government. 

    The outperforming screener shows stocks from the top-performing sectors. These are high-growth stocks which outperformed Nifty 500 by over 20% in the past year and by over 10% in the past quarter. Notable stocks in the screener are ITC, Siemens, Varun Beverages, Polycab India and KEI Industries. 

    Sectors like commercial services, utilities, media and retailing were underperformers and fell by over 15% in the past quarter. The utilities sector was dragged down by Adani group stocks, which plunged after Hindenburg’s explosive report on the group’s corporate governance issues. 

    The underperforming screener has stocks from the worst-performing sectors. Companies in this screener are Adani Total Gas and Adani Transmission, which underperformed Nifty 500 by over 50 percentage points. It also includes players like Aditya Birla Fashion, Concor and Sun TV Network.

    You can find some popular screenershere.

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    The Baseline
    29 Mar 2023
    Chart of the week: Facing high cost of funds, NBFCs are passing on rate hikes to their customers

    Chart of the week: Facing high cost of funds, NBFCs are passing on rate hikes to their customers

    By Abdullah Shah

    Interest rate hikes by central banks across the world have put banks under pressure, and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Credit Suisse signal the dangers ahead. 

    SVB bought billions of dollars worth of treasury bonds using customers’ deposits when the interest rate was low. However, as the US Fed increased interest rates aggressively over the past year, the value of these bonds plummeted, causing the bank to sell the bonds at high losses and eventually collapse. 

    This raises the question of how Indian lenders are operating in an environment of rising repo rates.

    In this edition of chart of the week, we take a look at the cost of funds (COF) of Indian non-banking financial companies (NBFC). COF is the interest rate at which a bank borrows money from the central bank and other financial institutions to lend to its customers. The general trend is that the higher the repo rate, the higher the cost of funds for banks. 

    Most NBFCs which witnessed a rise in COF in the past two quarters have been able to maintain their net interest margin (NIM) by increasing customers’ effective interest rates.

    Even though Bajaj Finance’s COF has risen for the past two quarters (a QoQ increase of 30 bps in Q3FY23), the lender managed to keep its NIM at Q2 levels. The company’s assets under management (AUM) improved by 27% YoY to Rs 2.3 lakh crore in the same quarter, while its net interest income (NII) grew by 24% YoY.

    Cholamandalam Investment & Finance’s COF has also increased by 40 bps QoQ to 6.4% in Q3, for the second consecutive quarter since Q1FY23. However, the lender was able to offset this rise by increasing customers’ effective lending rates and a staggered hike in interest rates across its segments. Its loan disbursements increased by 68% YoY to Rs 17,559 crore in Q3FY23.

    Poonawala Fincorp also managed to improve its NIM by 33 bps QoQ in Q3FY23 and loan book by 34.2% YoY to Rs 17,682 crore despite its COF rising 30 bps QoQ to 7.5%. 

    Piramal Enterprises and Muthoot Finance were the only exceptions to this trend as their COF fell 40 bps and 20 bps QoQ respectively in Q3FY23. This is despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiking policy repo rates by 40 bps. Muthoot Finance managed to improve its COF by reducing borrowings from bonds while increasing them from banks and financial institutions.

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    The Baseline
    28 Mar 2023
    Five analyst picks this week

    Five analyst picks this week

    By Suhas Reddy

    1. Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences: Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this healthcare facilities company with a target price of Rs 1,660. This implies an upside of 22.6%. Analysts Param Desai and Sanketa Kohale are optimistic about the company as they expect its occupancy rates, profitability and scalability to rise in the coming quarters. They also see the firm’s plans to expand its operations in Karnataka and Maharashtra as key positives. 

    The analysts expect an operational turnaround and a rise in occupancy rate in KIMS’ Kingsway unit in Nagpur as it plans to add more clinical talent and fill in therapeutic gaps like oncology radiation. They also anticipate the occupancy rate to increase in the firm’s new Sunshine unit in Secunderabad, Telangana.. “The new Sunshine unit will be moved to a new state-of-the-art facility in a prime location by the end of Q1FY24. This would attract clinical talent across other therapies,” they added. Desai and Kohale estimate the hospital chain’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 21.9% over FY22-25.

    1. Shree Cements: ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this cement manufacturer and increases its target price to Rs 29,130 from Rs 27,550. This implies an upside of 15.6%. Analyst Harsh Mittal is positive about the company’s prospects on the back of strong capacity additions and increased demand due to the upcoming general elections. He sees the firm’s plan to increase the share of premium cement sales to 15% from 7% in 12-15 months, as a key positive. 

    He also believes that the company will be able to improve its realisations with the help of cost-saving initiatives such as increased use of alternative fuels. “Consumption cost for alternate fuels is around Rs 1.3-1.5 per kilocalorie (kcal). Shree Cements’ current fuel consumption cost is Rs 2.3 per kcal at its current thermal substitution rate of 4.5%, and the company aims to increase it to 15% in the next 12 months,” he added. 

    Mittal expects sales volumes to rise, and the firm’s expansion plans are on track. He expects the cement company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 18.3% over FY22-25.

    1. State Bank of India: Motilal Oswal gives a ‘Buy’ call to this bank with a target price of Rs 725, indicating an upside of 43.1%. Following an interactive session with State Bank of India’s Chairman Dinesh Kumar Kharato to discuss the bank’s growth and margin outlook, analysts Nitin Aggarwal and Yash Agarwal say, “The bank’s robust performance has been aided by strong loan growth, margin expansion and lower provisions.” 

    They believe that a high mix of floating loans will continue to aid net interest income and earnings, even though the cost of deposits may increase. According to the analysts, manufacturing, export, renewables, batteries and EV segments are likely to be the key growth drivers for the bank. Aggarwal and Agarwal say, “Asset quality performance remains strong, with consistent improvements in headline asset quality ratios while the restructured book is under control at 0.9%.’

    1. Zydus Lifesciences: Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceutical company with a target price of Rs 572, implying an upside of 18.8%. Analysts at the brokerage believe the company’s growth will be driven by new product launches and volume growth in the US and India. They also expect input and freight costs to stabilise, leading to better profitability. 

    The analysts believe the firm will outperform the Indian pharma market in the long term by penetrating newer geographies, launching new products and improving institutional sales. “The company has one of the largest pipelines of biosimilar products among Indian players, as it has so far launched 14 products in India,” they add. 

    Sharekhan’s analysts anticipate strong demand in the US market on the back of robust product approvals in the recent past. The management is optimistic about maintaining the sales growth momentum in the US, driven by new launches, as well as volume expansion of existing products. The analysts expect the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 12% over FY22-25.

    1. Jyothy Labs: Hem Securities initiates a ‘Buy’ call on this personal products company with a target price of Rs 225. This indicates an upside of 20.9%. In Q3FY23, the company’s profit and revenue have grown 75.4% YoY to Rs 67.4 crore and 15.7% YoY to Rs 627.9 crore respectively. Analyst Chinmay Bhandari says that the company has posted good results in the past few quarters despite input price inflation and slowdown in volume growth. 

    According to Bhandari, brands such as Ujala and Henko continue to register strong growth, while Exo Bar and Pril increase their market share. The analyst believes that falling crude prices will help the company post better margins and points out that the management is trying to increase its distribution network of key brands in newer markets to improve its topline. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    24 Mar 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. UltraTech Cement: With a capacity of 121.35 metric tonnes per annum (mtpa), thiscement and construction company  has plans to increase its capacity to 153.85 mtpa by FY25/FY26.

    UltraTech Cements reported revenue growth of 19.5% YoY in Q3FY23, but its EBITDA margins declined 33bps YoY. The rise in revenue was led by an increase in volumes, while margins contracted due to the higher cost of raw materials. The price hike undertaken by UltraTech lagged cost increases, and the increase in energy costs adversely impacted the margins of the firm.

    Energy costs (petcoke/coal) have decreased by 30% in CY23.  The benefit of this will start to reflect in Q4FY23. FY24 being an election year, government spending on infra projects is expected to be high. UltraTech might see a jump in volumes due to this. However, in the near term, the company is more focused on volumes and will restrict its price hikes. The stock hasgained 4.27% in the past three trading sessions and shows up in a screener for growth in net profit with an increasing profit margin.

    Geojit BNP Paribas says demand for cement remains strong despite inflationary headwinds led by infrastructure and housing sector initiatives. Furthermore, a drop in raw material costs will enhance the company’s margins. Ultratech’s premium brand positioning, pan-India presence and efficient capacity utilization will aid bottom-line growth.

    1. One97 Communications (Paytm): This internet & software services stock rose 6.9% on Wednesday after Macquarie upgraded its rating to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Underperform’ and revised the target price to Rs 800 from Rs 450 per share. This implies a potential share price upside of 28.4%. During previous broker downgrades, Macquarie was one of the first brokerages to slash Paytm’s target price to Rs 450 and recommendation to ‘Underperform’. However, Macquarie appears to have changed its mind and turned bullish on the stock. The recent upward target price revision has helped Paytm to show up in a screener of stocks with upgraded recommendation or target price in the past three months. The stock is currently trading 245.1% below its issue price of Rs 2,150 per share.

    According to the brokerage, the company has outperformed on the distribution of financial services revenue by a huge margin, while also controlling the overall expenses and charges. This can be observed in its strong operating performance in January-February. The company’s loan disbursement increased by 286% YoY to Rs 8,086 crore, while its gross merchandise value (GMV) witnessed a growth of 41% YoY. Its average monthly transacting users (MTU) also rose 28% YoY in January-February.

    Owing to this strong operational performance, Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates the company’s annual revenue to grow by 37.6% to Rs 7,969 crore and its losses to contract by 21.7% to Rs 1,966.9 crore. However, one thing to keep an eye on is Paytm’s NPA levels on loans, as interest rates continue to increase. 

    1. Phoenix Mills: This realty company has risen 5.8% over the past week on the back of the street’s positive outlook on its prospects. Post the second Covid wave, the company has witnessed a gradual recovery in demand and footfall across its retail, office and commercial spaces. The firm’s mall portfolio is expected to increase to 14 million square feet (msf) by FY27, from 9 msf in March 2023. The realty company aims to add at least one million square feet of retail space every year. By June this year, the company will be adding three more malls to its portfolio of 11 now. According to reports, the management claims leasing occupancy rates across its malls have improved to 94%-99% as retail consumption improves. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with improving cash flow and high durability. 

    Motilal Oswal recently re-initiated its coverage on Phoenix Mills with a ‘Buy’ rating. The brokerage believes that healthy pre-leasing trends across its upcoming malls provide strong near-term visibility on rental growth. It is also especially positive about the firm’s mixed-use strategy, where the company plans to add office spaces on top of or adjacent to its existing and upcoming malls, to improve the blended yield of the assets.

    The company expects a consumption boom in India over the coming quarters and plans to expand into newer urban markets across the country. However, medium-term risks like a slowdown in consumption recovery and lower-than-expected leasing demand can impact the company’s expansion plans.

    1. Anupam Rasayan India: This agrochemicals company rose over 2.5% in trade on Thursday after it signed a letter of intent (LoI) worth $120 million (Rs 984 crore) with a Japanese chemical company. The LoI is for the supply of new-age advance intermediates for life science ingredients over six years. Commenting on the same, Managing Director Anand Desai says, "This LoI demonstrates the company’s ability to work on a niche molecule with Japanese customers, and strengthens the revenue growth visibility in the coming years.” Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates Anupam’s revenue to grow by 28.2% in FY23. 

    The company has been on an uptrend recently, rising around 33% in the past month on the back of a strong outlook. As a result of the uptick in share price, the company features in a screener of stocks  with strong momentum. It has also risen around 56% from its 52-week low of Rs 546.7. Anupam Rasayan has focused on expanding its product portfolio in fluorination chemistry, and plans to launch 14 molecules in the next 12-18 months, and five molecules in Q4FY23. The company also has a robust pipeline of contracts worth Rs 2,620 crore, says KRChoksey.

    In addition, Anupam Rasayan has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) worth Rs 670 crore with the Government of Gujarat to set up three chemical plants, according to media reports. These plants will focus on manufacturing fluorochemicals.

    1. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC): This oil marketing & distribution stock has fallen 1.13% in the past week despite announcing new ventures and improving refining capabilities. On Monday, IOC inked a pact with NTPC’s arm to form a joint venture for setting up a renewable energy power plant to meet IOC’s power requirements. Reports suggest that the transition of energy production from fossil-based systems to renewable energy is a good move, given that demand for petrol and diesel will slowly fall as companies shift to renewable energy sources. This is also in line with IOC’s target to increase its green energy share to 12% by 2030 from the current 9%.

    On Tuesday, IOC’s board gave in-principle approval to prepare a feasibility report to set up a petrochemical complex at Paradip, Odisha. The estimated cost of the project is Rs 61,077 crore. The project in Paradip will help IOC improve its petrochemical intensity (% of crude oil converted to chemicals) and also reduce import dependency.

    IOC’s Chairman Shrikant Madhav Vaida says that the company’s petrochemical intensity is currently at 5%-6%, and it plans to increase it to 10%-12%. He adds that refineries at locations like Panipat and Odisha will see the intensity go as high as 25%. Despite the announcement, the stock fell 1.3% in trade on Tuesday.

    However, it has gained 8.2% in the past three months, thanks to a steady fall in crude prices. ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on the company with a target price of Rs 79.9. It recommends keeping the stop loss at Rs 77.7. Geojit BNP Paribas maintains a ‘Hold’ on the stock and expects effective cost optimization and enhanced utilization to aid earnings in the near term. Trendlyne’s consensus recommendation has 16 analysts recommending a ‘Buy’, 8 suggesting ‘Hold’ and 4 ‘Sell’.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    24 Mar 2023
    When blood isn’t enough: Some family owned companies like the Tata group, are strong performers. Others? Not so much

    When blood isn’t enough: Some family owned companies like the Tata group, are strong performers. Others? Not so much

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    The top three companies by market cap in the US - Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet - were all started by first-generation entrepreneurs. In India however, two of the top three companies by market cap - Reliance and TCS - are part of family conglomerates. This pattern continues as we go down the list of Indian businesses. 

    Tata, Birla and Ambani are well-known names and family-run Indian conglomerates with a significant share of the economy. But do these family-owned businesses do better or worse than average, in financial performance? Do companies whose top management are all in the family, see different outcomes? 

    Here we take a look at India’s largest family-run businesses, and how they perform compared to the overall industry. 

    To do this comparison, we looked at the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE). The ROCE is a ratio used to evaluate a company’s capital efficiency and profitability, is an effective parameter to compare the performance of companies. It helps us understand how good a company is at generating profits from its capital. 

    Investors prefer stocks with stable and rising ROCE (above 20%) over stocks with weak and volatile ROCE (below 10%). Another advantage with the ROCE ratio is that unlike return on equity (ROE), which analyses only profitability on equity, it considers debt along with equity. The companies in focus are capital-intensive and ROCE therefore, offers better insights.

    The chart above depicts the ROCE percentage on the Y-axis. The bubble size is linked to the market cap of the company. Five major companies from each family group have been chosen and analysed.  20% ROCE, which is considered a good ratio, has been highlighted on the chart so that we can see which companies perform better or worse. 

    We also checked how family groups perform as compared to their sector’s average ROCE. 

    Fertilizers, software and services and FMCG are among the sectors with strong ROCE ratios.

    Murugappa Group companies log high ROCE

    Murugappa Group, founded in 1900, has a presence in auto, sugar, fertilizers, etc. The Tamil Nadu based group is headed by M M Murugappan and currently has the fourth generation of the Murugappa family on the board. 

    Most companies in the group, except for Carborundum Universal (18.1%), have very strong returns. Companies with high returns are Cholamandalam Investment & Finance (24.7%), Tube Investments of India (28.6%) and CG Power and Industrial Solutions (43.6%). All three companies have also outperformed their respective sectors by a minimum of 15%. Coromandel International has a high ROCE of 31.1% but did not outperform the fertilizer sector. 

    Adani Group struggles in ROCE, Adani Total Gas is the outlier

    Founded by Gautam Adani in 1988 for trading commodities, the Adani Group has over the decades, turned into a multinational conglomerate involving multiple businesses. Their meteoric rise has been attributed to the rapid increase in debt the group has taken on, and their closeness to the current government. However, the recent Adani-Hindenburg row made investors cautious about the group.

    As seen in the chart, four of the top five companies have weak ROCE values and underperform their respective sectors. Adani Total Gas is the only company with a high ROCE of 24.8%, and that has outperformed its sector, utilities (by 12.1%). Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Adani Transmission and Adani Green Energy have ROCE lower than 10%.

    Aditya Birla Group: UltraTech Cement, Aditya Birla Sun Life outperform sector ROCE

    Aditya Birla group, founded by Seth Shiv Narayan Birla in 1857, is currently chaired by Kumar Mangalam Birla. The group is engaged in sectors like metals, cement and telecom. The major five stocks under the Birla Group have ROCE on the lower spectrum. Hindalco and UltraTech Cement have fairly high returns of 15.6% and 14.6% respectively. UltraTech’s ROCE has outperformed the cement and construction sector by 1.8%. 

    Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, which is not in the top five companies in terms of market cap, outperformed its sector with a strong ROCE of 39.4%. 

    Tata Group performs better than its sectors

    Established by Jamsetji Tata in 1868, Tata group is India's largest conglomerate. It is currently looked after by the parent company, Tata Sons. Key people in Tata Sons are Ratan Tata and Natarajan Chandrasekaran, among others. 

    With strong returns, three of the top five companies in the Tata group have outperformed their respective sectors. Tata Consultancy Services, an IT behemoth, has a ROCE of 52.9%, higher than its sector’s 37.6%, which in itself is a strong percentage. Titan and Tata Steel also have high returns of 29.7% and 28.3% respectively, whereas Tata Motors’s is very low at 1.6%. 

    Mahindra Group’s Mahindra Lifespace Developers has negative ROCE

    Mahindra & Mahindra, incorporated as Mahindra & Mohammed in 1945 by Jagdish Chandra Mahindra and Kailash Chandra Mahindra, is currently chaired by Anand Mahindra. Besides auto, the Mahindra group is also engaged in IT and finance businesses. Mahindra & Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services and Mahindra CIE Automotivehave returns above 10% but below 20%. 

    Tech Mahindra has a strong ROCE of 23.5%, yet underperformed the software and services sector by 14.1%. On the other hand, Mahindra Lifespace Developers has a negative ROCE of -4.3%, even though it has a positive ROE of 8.6%. The company logged below zero returns on capital as it had negative EBIT for the past three years. 

    Most stocks from the Godrej Group underperform their sectors 

    Godrej Group was founded by Ardeshir Godrej and Pirojsha Burjorji Godrej in 1897. Its current chairman is Adi Godrej. Only one of the listed companies in the group - Astec Lifesciences - has outperformed its respective sector with strong returns. The other four have returns lower than 20%. The only stock with a high ROCE is Astec Lifesciences (32.1%), a chemicals manufacturer, and it has outperformed its sector by 9.1%. Godrej Agrovet and Godrej Consumer Products come close to the 20% mark with 19.4% and 18.7% respectively.

    Most companies in the Jindal Group have strong returns 

    The Jindal group was founded in 1952 by B C Jindal for the manufacture of steel pipes and pipe fittings. Since then, it has diversified into packaging films, power generation, etc. Most companies under Jindal have strong returns. JSW Steel, Jindal Steel & Power, Jindal Stainless and Jindal Stainless (Hisar) stand at 24.9%, 25%, 34.9% and 32.7% respectively. But only the latter two have outperformed the metal and mining sector (26.9%). JSW Energy has a ROCE of 11.6%.

    Bajaj Group’s Bajaj Auto manages to make the cut above 20%

    Bajaj Group, founded by Jamnalal Bajaj in 1926, is currently headed by Niraj Bajaj, Rahul Bajaj and Madhur Bajaj, among others. The group is involved in automobiles, home appliances, insurance, travel and finance. Three of its top five companies have outperformed their sectors. 

    Bajaj Auto is the only stock that managed to cross the 20% ROCE threshold. It also outperformed the auto sector by 7%. Bajaj Finance (12.4%) and Bajaj Finserv (11.8%) did better than their sectors by 3.9% and 2% respectively. Bajaj Holdings & Investment has a very low ROCE of 0.6%.

    Murugappa Group performs better than other family conglomerates

    Among all the groups in focus, Murugappa Group has performed the best in terms of ROCE with most of its companies logging high returns on capital, and also outperforming their sectors. Among the rest, Tata and Jindal group companies have stronger returns on capital, unlike Birla. Adani, Godrej, Mahindra and Bajaj.

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    The Baseline
    23 Mar 2023
    Screener of the week: Stocks rising in a tough market: High revenue growth estimates, high target price upside and recent broker upgrades

    Screener of the week: Stocks rising in a tough market: High revenue growth estimates, high target price upside and recent broker upgrades

    By Abdullah Shah

    As the financial year comes to an end and the result season approaches, we take a look at stocks that analysts are especially bullish about. These stocks have especially high revenue growth estimates in FY23.

    This screenerconsists of stocks with high annual revenue growth estimates and target price upside along with price upgrades from brokers over the past three months.

    The screener has 57 stocks from the Nifty 500 and nine stocks from the Nifty 50 index. It is dominated by industries like auto parts & equipment, cement & cement products and other industrial products.

    Major stocks that show up in the screener are Kotak Mahindra Bank, Coromandel International, Vinati Organics, LTIMindtree, Solar Industries India and InterGlobe Aviation.

    According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, LTIMindtree has the highest revenue growth estimates of 109.6% for FY23. This rise in revenue can be attributed to the merger of Mindtree with L&T Infotech, which was completed on November 14, 2022. The stock has an average target price upside of 15%, with five target price upgrades over the past three months.

    InterGlobe Aviation comes in next with a 107.8% estimated growth in revenue for FY23. The airline is planning to start flights to Nairobi, Jakarta and some central Asian destinations and is also waiting for an order of 500 aircraft to be delivered.

    Coromandel International has the highest average target price upside of 39% by brokers with an annual revenue growth estimate of 53.4% in FY23. Brokers estimate this rise in revenue on the back of the seven new products launched by the company in FY23. 

    You can find more screeners here.

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