Trendlyne Blog: The Baseline, Latest on stock market and finance in India and the world.

11 Apr 2025, 05:20PM

Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 11, 2025

1. InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo):

Thisairline company surged 3% over the past week and is trading near its 52-week high after announcing apartnership with French hospitality firm Accor to enter the hospitality sector. Together, IndiGo and Accor will acquire a majority stake in India’s budget hotel chain, Treebo.

The airline adds one new aircraft to its fleet every week, a trend expected to continue until 2030. This expansion is fueled by growing demand, driven by rising middle-class income and the opening of new airports across India. With 65% of the world’s population located within 5-6 hours from India, IndiGo sees significant growth opportunities in international connectivity and is expanding aggressively.

Due to its rapid expansion,Forecaster expects IndiGo to report sales growth in FY25 but anticipates that margins will be negatively impacted on a YoY basis. However, they project that margin and net profit growth will return to a positive trajectory starting in FY26. IndiGo has launched “Strech,” a business class seating option, introduced a loyalty program, and expanded its cargo division to improve its margins. The airline currently offers business class services on three routes and aims to cover thirteen routes by the end of 2025.

InQ3, the airline’s net profit was lower YoY, primarily due to foreign exchange losses on lease liabilities denominated in US dollars. However, when excluding the impact of these forex losses, IndiGo reported a net profit growth of 26% YoY in Q3. To mitigate these losses, CFO Gaurav Negisaid, “We will further enhance our hedging positions, and as we add more international capacity, we expect the natural hedge to also improve.” He believes that expanding international capacity will serve as a “natural hedge” due to cash inflows in the form of US dollars.

According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, 21 analysts have a consensus recommendation of “Buy”, with an average target price of 5,385.Analysts at Motilal Oswal expect IndiGo to benefit from India’s aviation sector's growth and expansion into international destinations.

2. Jubilant Foodworks:

This QSR player has gained over 59.5% from its 52-week low of Rs 429.6. On April 5, Jubilant Foodworks released its business update for Q4FY25, showing a 33.9% YoY increase in revenue at Rs 2,107 crore. The company features in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased shareholding over the past quarter.

Jubilant Foodworks is the master franchise for brands like Domino’s Pizza, Popeyes and Dunkin’ Donuts in India. During the quarter, Domino’s Pizza reported like-for-like or LFL growth of 12.1% YoY. LFL growth stood at 12.5% in the December quarter, driven by improvements in home delivery orders.

The company has risen 61.1% in the past two years, underperforming the broader hotels, restaurant & tourism sector by 41.1% points. Over the past 8–9 quarters, QSR (quick service restaurant) chains have faced pressures due to weak demand and tough market conditions. Delivery remained strong, but dine-in and takeaway slowed down. However, the management highlighted recovery in dine-in sales and expects growth in the coming quarters.

Meanwhile, the company continued to expand its store network in Q4FY25 and opened 52 new Domino’s outlets, taking the total to 2,179 stores in India. Commenting on this, Sameer Khetarpal, the MD and CEO, said, “We plan to add 1,000 new Domino’s and around 150 Popeyes stores over the next three years as demand momentum remains upbeat.”

Analysts highlight that demand for fast-food chains is improving, driven by better affordability and a recovery in dine-in sales. This trend is likely to strengthen in FY26 as discretionary incomes rise following personal income tax cuts.

Motilal Oswal gives a ‘Hold’ rating on Jubilant Foodworks with a target price of Rs 715. The brokerage believes that improving the menu and promotional strategies for dine-in will be key in boosting footfall and orders moving forward.

3. Hindustan Unilever:

This personal products company rose by 5.4% in the past week. On April 8th the company’s demerged entity, Magnum Ice Cream Company, signed an MoU with the Maharashtra government to set up a Global Capability Center (GCC) for its ice cream business in Pune. Maharashtra CM, Devendra Fadnavis, said, “This Rs 900 crore investment will generate over 1,000 jobs and is Unilever’s largest Global Capability Centre (GCC) to date.”

To prepare for the Environment Ministry's April 1st mandate requiring recycled plastic use, the company acquired a 14.3% stake in Lucro Plastecycle Private, a plastic recycling firm, on March 20th. This strategic investment aims to ensure compliance and mitigate potential sales risks within the FMCG sector.

Trendlyne’s forecaster predicts the company's revenue and net profit will decline by 0.7% and 16.3% in Q4FY25. The negative estimates are due to inflationary material prices and flat growth in the previous quarter for the Beauty & Personal Care segment, which is the largest contributor at 36.6% of sales. However, the FMCG sector’s resilience and strong domestic demand have made it a preferred investment amid rising market volatility with Trump’s tariffs and recession fears. It appears on the screener for stocks in the ‘Buy’ zone.

Ritesh Tiwari, Executive Director & CFO of HUL, said, “If commodity prices remain where they are, we expect low single-digit price growth in the near term. With inflationary material prices, we expect to maintain EBITDA at the lower end of 23-24%. Along with our ice cream business demerger we've also entered an agreement to acquire a stake in premium beauty brand ‘Minimalist’, aligning with our strategy to pursue bolt-on acquisitions and strengthen our Beauty & Wellbeing portfolio.”

KR Choksey expects strategic acquisitions and premiumization efforts to support long term growth recovery for HUL. Subsequently, the brokerage has maintained its ‘Accumulate’ rating on the stock. The brokerage has lowered its FY26 & FY27 adjusted EPS estimates by 1.5% and 2% respectively, factoring in the Q3FY25 performance.

4. IRB Infrastructure Developers:

This roads & highways stock rose 5.9% on Tuesday as its toll collections increased 15.8% YoY to Rs 556.8 crore in March. Toll revenue for FY25 jumped 23% YoY to Rs 6,360 crore. The recent decline in Indian markets has helped the stock to feature in a screener of stocks with above-line growth and below-line valuations.

An improvement in the company’s monthly and yearly collections for the IRB MP Expressway, IRB Ahmedabad Vadodara Super Express Tollway, and CG Tollway helped its toll revenue improve in March and FY25.

Speaking on its Q4FY25 update, the company’s Deputy Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Amitabh Murarka, said, “With a strong finish to FY25 and strong growth in toll revenue, we expect the trajectory to continue, driven by budget allocations aimed at boosting consumption and tourism, which will increase traffic on our assets in 12 states."

Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects the company’s net profit to grow by 10.5% YoY to Rs 208.7 crore in Q4FY25. However, revenue is expected to decline by 22.1% YoY to Rs 1,949.8 crore.

In Q3FY25, the stock’s revenue grew by 2.9% YoY to Rs 2,025.4 crore. Meanwhile, its net profit surged by 32.2x to Rs 6,026.1 crore during the quarter, helped by lower road work and site expenses, and fair value gains of Rs 5,804.1 crore from investments made in joint ventures.

Speaking on the order book, Anil Yadav, Director of Investor Relations of the company, stated, “Our total order book now stands at approximately Rs 31,500 crores, with an executable order book of Rs 6,000 crores in the next two years. We expect further growth in the order book, with the government’s push for public-private partnership (PPP) projects gaining momentum and bidding for BOT and TOT projects already underway.”

5 institutional analysts have a consensus recommendation of “Buy”, with an average target price of Rs 63.6 per share, indicating an upside of 39.5%.

5. Sobha:

This Bengaluru-based realty company rose 5.7% on April 8 after announcing its Q4FY25 business update. Sobha’s total sales increased by 22.1% YoY to Rs 1,836 crore, driven by higher volumes from new launches in Bengaluru, which contributed 76.6 % of total sales.

During the quarter, the company sold 15.6 lakh sq ft of area, a 16.3% rise YoY. The average price was Rs 11,781 per sq ft, down 13.8% QoQ due to a higher share of mid-income projects, but it rose 4.5% YoY. Bengaluru alone accounted for Rs 1,406 crore in sales, supported by two project launches, Sobha Madison Heights and Sobha Hamptons. Other regions like Gurgaon, Hyderabad and Tamil Nadu also performed well during the quarter.

Despite a good recent quarter, Sobha’s total sales declined 5.5% YoY for FY25 to Rs 6,277 crore due to a weak H1 impacted by launch delays and slower sales in premium projects. Despite lower sales, the average price rose 22.8% YoY to Rs 13,412 per sq ft, aided by a higher share of own land projects and selective price hikes.

The company missed its FY25 presales guidance of Rs 8,500 crore, to which Jagadish Nangineni, the company's Managing Director, pointed to “the regulatory delay in Sobha Townpark, and the slower pace of sales in some of our projects where the ticket size is large.”

Sobha plans to launch 210 lakh sq ft of residential and 11.9 lakh sq ft of commercial space across 10 cities in the next 4-6 quarters. Management expects to add Greater Noida, Hosur, and Mumbai to its operating locations in the next financial year, expanding its real estate presence to 15 cities.

Following the business update, HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, citing its launch pipeline and an improving regulatory environment. They expect presales of Rs 9,000-10,000 crore in FY26, supported by geographical expansion and product diversification.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

10 Apr 2025, 12:31PM

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 10, 2025

By Divyansh Pokharna

The Indian stock market saw declines since April 7, with the Nifty 50 down 2.2%. This came after US President Trump announced a 26% reciprocal tariff on Indian imports on April 2. The fall was part of a broader global sell-off as investors moved to safer assets like US Treasury bonds and gold. On Wednesday, with the US stock and bond market falling, Trump announced a 90 day pause on higher tariffs for most countries while the US negotiates deals.

Despite the volatility, some analysts still see value in a few stocks. Here are five stocks with a ‘Buy’ rating from analysts. Two of them, Hindalco Industries and Prestige Estates, hit new 52-week lows in the week. The other three are down over 20% from their year highs.

1. PTC Industries:

ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this industrial products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 20,070. This indicates an upside of 52.4%. Aeroalloy Technologies (ATL), a unit of PTC Industries, received a long-term order on March 28 from Safran Aircraft Engines to supply seven cast parts for LEAP-1A (Airbus A320neo engines) and LEAP-1B (Boeing 737 Max engines). This order comes as PTC is expanding capacity at its Uttar Pradesh Defence Industrial Corridor.

Analysts Amit Dixit, Mohit Lohia and Pritish Urumka believe this deal could boost PTC’s earnings in the near term. They highlight that ATL is emerging as a key local supplier for Safran to support LEAP engine production, which powers many domestic airline fleets.

Dixit, Lohia, and Urumka expect PTC to add major capacities in 2025. This includes starting a new metal melting unit by April and expanding its casting and forging facilities by the end of the year. They project the company’s revenue to grow at a 104% CAGR over FY25-27.

2. Power Grid Corporation of India:

Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this electric utility company with a target price of Rs 350, indicating an upside potential of 19.2%. In Q3FY25, Power Grid secured 11 transmission projects under the tariff-based competitive bidding (TBCB) framework. The company spent Rs 17,651 crore on capex during 9MFY25. As of December 2024, its order book stood at Rs 1.4 lakh crore.

Analysts believe that the government’s plan to increase renewable energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030, along with the national electricity plan (NEP) investment of Rs 9.2 lakh crore for transmission lines, provides Power Grid with an opportunity to secure inter-state transmission system (ISTS) projects worth Rs 1.9 lakh crore by FY32.

The management is targeting a capitalization of Rs 25,000 crore, with capex guidance of over Rs 28,000 crore by FY26. Analysts expect Power Grid to invest approximately Rs 3.3 lakh crore until FY32, driven by renewable energy capacity additions. They project a 6% CAGR in net profit over FY25- 27.

3. Prestige Estates Projects:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this Bangalore-based realty firm with a target price of Rs 1,725, indicating a potential upside of 59.8%. Prestige Estates Projects (PEPL) has a diverse portfolio covering residential, office, retail, and hospitality segments. The company added 15 million square feet (msf) of new projects in 9MFY25. Analysts Abhishek Lodhiya and Yohan Batliwala highlight that with a launch pipeline of Rs 80,000 crore, PEPL’s presales are expected to grow at a 14% CAGR, reaching Rs 31,500 crore by FY27.

The company is expanding its commercial and hospitality segments, adding 43 msf of commercial space. It expects rental income from this segment to grow at a 53% CAGR and reach Rs 1,950 crore by FY27. In the hospitality segment, analysts expect revenue to rise annually by 20%, based on estimates for about 3,000 hotel rooms, out of a total pipeline of 4,760 rooms planned in the near term.

Lodhiya and Batliwala note that the company’s upcoming launches and strong pipeline are not fully reflected in the current stock price. They estimate PEPL's net asset value (NAV) at Rs 56,900 crore and expect its net profit to grow at a 10.6% CAGR over FY25-27.

4. Hindalco Industries:

Anand Rathi retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this aluminium company with a target price of Rs 800, indicating an upside potential of 41.8%. Analysts Parthiv Jhonsa and Prakhar Khajanchi believe the company’s recent announcements strengthen its long-term growth visibility.

At the 2025 Investor Day, Hindalco announced a $10 billion capex plan covering both Novelis (its subsidiary), and its India operations. Novelis aims to raise its recycled content from 63% to 75%, cut emissions, and improve return on capital. The company reiterated its long-term EBITDA/tonne guidance of over $600, supported by scale, better pricing, and a stronger product mix. Its 6 lakh tonne Bay Minette facility in the US is on track for completion in H2CY26 and is expected to deliver $1,000/tonne EBITDA at peak utilization.

In India, Hindalco plans to increase its aluminium smelting capacity to 15 lakh tonnes from the current 13.5 lakh tonnes and downstream capacity from 4.3 lakh tonnes to 6 lakh tonnes by FY28. It has earmarked Rs 5,200 crore to expand alumina, copper, and specialty alumina capacities.

5. J K Paper:

Geojit BNP Paribas initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this paper manufacturer with a target price of Rs 392. This indicates a potential upside of 25.6%. The company’s Q3FY35 sales volume, however, fell by 6% YoY, and net sales dropped 4.4% YoY to Rs 1,632 crore due to weak domestic demand and increased paper imports.

Analyst Sheen notes that in Q3FY25, JK Paper’s EBITDA margin declined by 1,155 bps to 10.3% due to rising raw material costs and high wood prices. The analyst expects the company’s margins to improve from FY26 onwards, supported by easing raw material costs, increased demand for packaging boards, and a diversified product mix.

Over the past three years, JK Paper has expanded into the packaging business through acquisitions in the corrugated (cardboard containers) packaging segment. The analyst is optimistic that government initiatives, such as import tariffs, agroforestry support, and eco-friendly incentives, will help the company tackle competition, stabilize costs, and improve profitability.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

09 Apr 2025

Tariffs are the only story right now | Screener: Companies with large revenues from the US

The modern American, however worldly-wise, has not really experienced tariffs.

For that, you need to ask an Indian. Let's take televisions, for instance. Most American households had a television in their living rooms by the late 1950s. Americans were watching TV dramas like Mary Kay and Johnny in the 1950s, The Dick Van Dyke Show in the 1960s, The Brady Bunch in the 1970s.

But TVs reached most Indian homes only by the 1980s (a national telecast began in 1982), decades after the US. A big reason for this was Indian tariffs which kept foreign products and new technology out of Indian hands. If you wanted to time travel, you could visit India in the 1980s, a nation stuck in the past - people were driving Premier Padminis (a 1960s car), using Indian made refrigerators, and eating Mars bars and Toblerones only when someone visited from "foreign". Coca Cola aired the iconic "I'd like to buy the world a Coke" ad in 1971, but it got kicked out of India in 1977 and returned only in 1993 (to be fair, the domestic substitute Campa Cola was pretty decent).

So color me surprised that the United States now wants to block itself from the world with the highest tariff rates in a century. US President Trump, after implementing tariffs ranging from 104% on China to 10% on Australia, has promised Americans that they are somehow going to get a lot richer with tariffs.

Not many people are buying the "good for America" claim:

"A huge policy mistake and a tax on American consumers" - Ken Griffin, billionaire investor and Republican megadonor

"Unambiguously stupid" - Jay Hatfield, CEO, Infrastructure Capital Advisors

"You can’t go to the bathroom because who knows what’s going to happen” - Peter Tchir, Strategy Head, Academy Securities

Meanwhile, Apple stores across the US are packed with customers buying the phones before prices go up (estimates put the iPhone price in the US doubling with tariffs). Among the biggest hit stocks are the Magnificent-7 (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft and Tesla), which have lost $1.5 trillion in market value over the past few days.

The tariffs seem perfectly designed to crash American growth, as well as cause a recession in many parts of the global economy. But even in a bad scene, there are relative winners and losers.

In this week's Analyticks:

Tariff chaos: What does the impact on India look like?

Screener: Indian companies with high revenue exposure to the US market

Some countries are better off than others

In human history, trade has been a consistent winner. Global trade has averaged 4% in annual growth since the Mongol invasion in the 12th century. Trump is unlikely to be the one to break this pattern. Still, the damage to global supply chains, even if temporary, is significant.

India's stock market has see-sawed with the tariff announcements, but the trade data points to limited direct exposure. India's US exports account for 2.2% of its GDP. "India has relatively low dependence on the US for exports," Crisil analysts note. Vietnam in comparison, has 23% of its GDP coming from exports to the US, and 9% for Thailand.

A few Indian sectors take the lion's share in our US exports. Capital goods, textiles and pharmaceuticals have substantial shares.

Some sub-industries however, have a disproportionate share of export revenue coming from the US. 38% of India's dairy exports by value go the US, as do 28% of iron and steel products and 22% of agrochemical exports.

It's now a game of relative advantage

One advantage India may have in the new US tariff regime is in the difference in tariff rates. India's level of 26% is lower than what the US has imposed on big exporters like China, Vietnam and Bangladesh. This may drive players to shift operations - from Vietnam to India for Samsung and Nike, and from China to India for Apple.

Supply chains however, take a lot of time to move between countries. Apple still makes around 85% of its iPhones in China, even though it has been expanding production in India since 2017. Much of the equipment and machinery in Apple's Indian factories are still made in China.

But even as we assess tradeoffs and relative advantages, the fact remains that Trump, the Mad King with his chart of death, can change these numbers around on a whim and upend global markets week to week (he's already gleefully promising more pharma tariffs).

A trade deal here and there could bring tariffs down for some countries. But while markets hate uncertainty, Trump, a veteran of six bankruptcies, looks like someone who is unbothered by chaos.

Screener: Indian companies with high revenue exposure to the US market

IT stocks decline after Trump imposes tariffs on Indian imports

As FY26 kicks off, the Indian equity market is under pressure, witnessing a sharp sell-off. Amid escalating global trade tensions sparked by US tariffs, foreign investors have offloaded Rs 22,770 crore worth of Indian equities, leading to a 4.6% decline in the Nifty 50 index from April 1st. The screener highlights stocks that generate the most revenue from the US market.

The screener primarily consists of stocks from the IT consulting & software, construction & engineering, pharmaceuticals, and auto parts & equipment sectors. Notable stocks featured includeBharat Forge, Birlasoft, Mphasis, Persistent Systems, Hexaware Technologies, LTIMindtree, Bharat Forge, Zensar Technologies, and Welspun Living.

Bharat Forge features in the screener after falling 17.7% over the past week, touching a new 52-week low of Rs 919. The sharp decline comes as the US imposes a 25% tariff on automobiles and auto parts.

In Q3FY25, this industrial products manufacturer derived 74% of its revenue from the US market by supplying parts for Class 8 trucks and OEM parts to automotive companies. The 25% tariff on auto parts increases export costs, reduces demand, impacts revenue, and makes the company less competitive in the US.

In Q3FY25, revenue fell by 10%, and it reported a loss of Rs 19.5 crore due to lower sales of defense products on both a QoQ and YoY basis. On February 19, the company received a letter of intent (LOI) from AM General, USA, to supply advanced artillery cannons to the United States.

Birlasoft also features in the screener after falling 10.6% over the past week. This IT Consulting company derived 86% of its revenue from the US market in Q3FY25. The manufacturing sector and banking and financial services account for 64% of its revenue.

Trump has not imposed tariffs on the Indian IT sector. However, tariffs will likely increase costs for Indian tech’s American customers across sectors, leading them to reduce spending on IT services and postpone discretionary spending. This could extend deal cycles, delay projects, and weaken IT sector growth. A US recession could deepen these impacts further.

In Q3FY25, Birlasoft’s net profit fell 27.3% YoY, while revenue grew slightly by 0.9% YoY, impacted by seasonally weak demand and a drop in net new deals.

You can find more screenershere.

The Baseline

09 Apr 2025

Chart of the week: Gear shift in two-wheeler market: Hero loses ground to Honda & TVS

By Omkar Chitnis

India’s two-wheeler market is caught up in a high-speed race, with a diverse lineup of models competing for the spotlight. Two-wheeler volume grew 30%, reaching 18.7 million units in FY25, up from 13.8 million units in FY13.

Over the past decade, Indian two-wheeler manufacturers have launched new models across all segments to stay competitive. Strategic global collaborations have further fueled innovation, enabling Indian players to bring fresh, premium offerings to consumers.

Hero MotoCorp collaborated with Harley-Davidson to develop the X440 series motorcycles, while TVS partnered with BMW Motorrad to launch premium bikes over 300cc. Similarly, Bajaj Auto joined Triumph Motorcycles to introduce mid-capacity bikes. These partnerships and new launches helped the Indian companies tap the growing demand for mid-capacity and premium bikes.

But the road hasn’t been smooth for Hero. Hero’s pole position has been under threat since 2013, while Honda and TVS Motors are expanding their market presence. Changing consumer preferences, innovative product strategies, and a growing focus on premium motorcycles and electric models are reshaping the industry.

Before Hero and Honda parted ways in 2011, Hero Honda dominated the two-wheeler space with a 68.9% market share. The split created an opportunity for other manufacturers to expand and challenge Hero’s leadership. Today, four major players – Hero MotoCorp, Honda, TVS Motor, and Bajaj Auto – control nearly 80% of the market, and the landscape is shifting fast.

Honda is going after Hero for the top spot. Minoru Kato, Executive Officer at Honda Motor Co., said, “We have launched highly competitive products of all kinds. With the advantage of 6,000 dealers and service networks covering all the geographies of India, we have increased unit sales. Now, the number one position is well within our sight.”

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyze Hero MotoCorp’s declining market share, the rise of its competitors, shifting consumer preferences, and the growth of the electric two-wheeler segment.

Hero’s market share dips amid limited product portfolio

Hero MotoCorp has remained India and the world’s largest two-wheeler manufacturer for 24 years. However, its market share declined from 48% in CY13 to 28% in FY25. The company sold 58.9 lakh two-wheelers in FY25, recording a 5.5% increase from the previous year. Hero's sales growth has been slow, with a 5-year CAGR of just 2.2%. In contrast, TVS sales have grown at a CAGR of 14.2% over the same period.

Hero generates 93% of its revenue from motorcycles, with 80% from just the Splendor and HF Deluxe models. Scooters contribute just 7% to their total revenue. The company faces intense competition from Honda, TVS, and Suzuki.

Hero is mainly recognized as a commuter brand focused on entry-level motorcycles, making it difficult to establish its credibility in the premium segment, priced above Rs 2 lakh. This positioning has restricted its ability to build a strong brand presence for models above 150cc, as its new models accounted for only 7% of sales in the first nine months of FY25.

TVS Motors has strengthened its market position, increasing its share from 13% in FY13 to 17.4% in FY25. Its scooter market share rose from 32% to 46% during the same period.

TVS maintains a balanced revenue mix, generating 49% of its revenue from motorcycles, 38% from scooters, and the rest from mopeds. In motorcycles, new models have significantly contributed to growth. The Apache series and Raider accounted for 70% of total motorcycle sales, while models launched in 9MFY25 accounted for 20% of the segment’s sales.

TVS gained a foothold in the premium segment early by launching multiple variants in the Apache series in 2016. Hero entered this category in Q3FY25 with six premium models, including the Xpulse 200, Xtreme 160R, and Mavrick 440. Honda holds a 25.3% market share, supported by its presence in both the scooter and motorcycle segments.

Peers challenge Hero’s rural presence

Hero remains a dominant player in rural markets due to its affordable, fuel-efficient motorcycles designed for local needs, with over 55% of its sales coming from rural areas. Its commuter motorcycles, including the Splendor, Passion, and HF Deluxe, continue to lead the segment. In FY24, the Splendor held a 26.5% market share among commuter bikes, while the HF Deluxe maintained an 8.3% share.

TVS and Bajaj have also expanded their presence in rural India. TVS increased its rural market share from 15.5% in FY18 to 45% in FY24, driven by entry-level models like Star City, Jupiter, and Radeon, priced between Rs 75,000 and Rs 1 lakh. Bajaj's rural market share rose from 12.7% to 13.9% as it focused on entry-level motorcycles. The company introduced Discover, Platina, CT series, and CNG-powered Freedom 125 for rural buyers.

Honda, on the other hand, generates 70% of its sales from urban areas. The Activa remains the top-selling urban commuter model, contributing 38.8% of Honda’s sales. In FY24, Honda sold four Activa scooters every minute. But over the past decade, Honda has expanded its rural and semi-urban network from 1,950 outlets in 2013 to 6,000 in 2025. This growth, supported by models like the Shine 100 and SP125, strengthened its presence in urban and rural markets.

Royal Enfield leads the shift to premium bikes

A decade ago, the premium motorcycle segment was relatively overlooked. It is now growing rapidly, with more consumers choosing bikes above 250cc for better performance and advanced features. The shift towards aspirational, higher-capacity motorcycles is driven by rising disposable income, a younger demographic, and evolving consumer preferences.

Royal Enfield continues to dominate the premium motorcycle segment. In the 250–700cc category, it holds an 88.2% market share, led by models like the Classic, Meteor, and Himalayan.

Bajaj Auto is expanding in the 350–500 cc category through partnerships with KTM and Triumph, introducing models like the KTM 390 and the Bajaj Dominar 400. Hero MotoCorp entered the premium segment in Q3FY25 with six models, including the Karizma XMR and Mavrick, along with collaborations with Harley-Davidson.

Honda plans to launch three new premium bikes in India next year under the Rebel series through its BigWing network in the 300cc and 500cc segments to compete with Royal Enfield’s dominance in this market.

TVS has also gained traction in the premium segment. Its partnership with BMW Motorrad has increased its motorcycle volume above 310cc, rising from 1.1% of total sales in FY20 to 11.8% in FY24. In the 150–200cc category, TVS holds a 40% market share, led by the Apache series, Ronin, and Commando.

Government push is reshaping the electric two-wheeler segment

India’s electric two-wheeler market grew 33% YoY in CY24 to 19 lakh units. Despite this growth, EVs account for only 5% of total two-wheeler sales. Government initiatives like the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME) scheme and lower GST rates continue to support adoption, especially in rural and semi-urban areas.

Ola Electric leads the EV segment with a 30% market share and a 1.9% share of the overall two-wheeler market. However, its market share has dropped from 52% in early 2024 to 30% in FY25. Bajaj Auto’s Chetak electric scooter holds a 20% market share, benefiting from the FAME II subsidy, which has helped lower costs and expand its reach.

TVS Motor is the second-largest electric scooter manufacturer, holding a 21% market share. It sold 2.3 lakh iQube in FY25, a 30% year-on-year growth. The company has benefited from the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, which supports the iQube scooter and TVS X production.

Hero MotoCorp entered the EV market in late 2022 and has grown rapidly. Management expects support for its Vida electric scooter under the PLI scheme. Vida’s sales surged 174% year-on-year to 48,673 units in FY25. Additionally, Hero owns a 40% stake in Ather Energy. Its sales rose 20% YoY to 1.3 lakh units in FY25, supported by EMPS 2024 incentives.

In Q3FY25, Honda Motorcycle & Scooter entered the EV segment with its Activa E and QC models. The company plans to introduce 30 electric models globally by 2030, signaling its long-term commitment to the space

The Baseline

04 Apr 2025

Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 4, 2025

By Trendlyne Analysis

1.Larsen & Toubro:

This construction conglomerate is up 2% over the past month after receiving orders worth over Rs 30,000 crore. In late March, L&T secured its largest order to date, worth over Rs 15,000 crore from QatarEnergy LNG, to establish two offshore complexes.

L&T continues to reduce orderbook risks from domestic fluctuations in recent quarters, with a growing number of orders now coming from international clients. L&T Management has expressed confidence in easily surpassing the 10% order inflow growth target set for FY25, as they anticipate that capital expenditures in India will pick up starting in Q4, supported by a strong international pipeline.Forecaster projects revenue to increase by 18.4% YoY in Q4, with net profit expected to rise by 8%.

The company’s net working capital to sales ratio improved significantly, declining by 390 bps in December 2024, driven by robust customer collections during the quarter. P. Ramakrishnan, Head of Investor Relations, expects the ratio to remain at this level in FY25. The company appears in a screener of stocks that efficiently utilise their capital to enhance return on employed capital.

Thanks to free cash flow generation over the past couple of years, Ramakrishnan says, “The company is stepping up capital allocation into newer business areas like green energy, data centres and semiconductor design.” These initiatives are expected to bear fruit in the company’s upcoming Lakshya plan for FY27-31.

Geojit BNP Paribas maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on L&T. The brokerage anticipates that a strong order pipeline will drive revenue growth at a CAGR of 16% over FY25-27. With a target price of Rs 3,863, the stock has a potential upside of over 18%.

2. Tata Motors:

This car and utility vehicle manufacturer dropped 8.2% in the past week due to concerns over new US tariffs. On April 2, US President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on foreign auto products. Tata Motors is the most affected among Indian automakers as Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) sales in the US contribute over 20% of its revenue.

JLR, the luxury vehicle arm of Tata Motors, contributed most of the company's revenue in FY24. Its wholesale volume in the US increased from 26% in FY24 to 33% in 9MFY25. Analysts estimate a 5-10% drop in JLR’s volume due to US tariffs, which could reduce its earnings per share (EPS) by 15-20%.

JLR’s North America sales grew 48% YoY in Q3FY25. JLR’s CFO Richard Molyneux set a 10% EBIT margin target for Q4FY25 but cautioned that macroeconomic challenges could make it difficult. Recently, Tata Motors’ management reaffirmed its 10% EBIT margin target for Q4 and its plan to be net debt free by FY25.

Tata Motors’ India business reported an 8.4% YoY drop in commercial vehicle (CV) revenue due to weak demand, while passenger vehicle (PV) revenue fell 4.3% YoY in Q3FY25. Shailesh Chandra, MD of Tata Passenger Vehicles and Electric Mobility, said, “We saw 2% growth in 9MFY25 and expect the same for FY25. Demand has been unpredictable, rising in some months and falling in others due to macroeconomic factors.” He added that if economic conditions improve and the budget provides support, the industry could return to 6-7% growth in FY26. Tata Motors, like other auto majors, is facing competition from Chinese players in the international markets and from domestic competitors like M&M and Maruti in the Indian market, as new launches ramp up.

ICICI Securities has a ‘Buy’ rating for the stock with a target price of Rs 831, implying an upside of 35.4%. The brokerage expects Tata Motors' new PV launches and the revamp of its small commercial vehicle (SCV) business to drive growth. It projects a 7.2% revenue CAGR and 19.2% net profit CAGR over FY25-27.

3. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders:

This aerospace & defence company declined by over 7% today. On April 3rd the company’s promoter, the President of India, proposed to sell a total of around 1.9 crore equity shares (4.8% stake) in the firm via an offer for sale (OFS) issue at Rs 2,525 per share.

On April 2nd, the company began production of a Multi-Purpose Vessel (MPV) for M/s Navi Merchants Denmark. Mazagon will design, build and deliver six MPVs at a value of approximately $14 million (approx. Rs 119 crore).

The company’sQ3FY25 results saw net profit rise 28.8% YoY to Rs 807 crore, on the back of declines in raw material and project related costs. Its revenue increased by 30.4%but missed forecaster estimates by 2.2% due to a 9% YoY decline in its order book to Rs 34,800 crore. It appears on the screener for stocks lying in the ‘Sell’ zone.

Morgan Stanley highlighted that naval contracts for submarines and warships involve substantial, long-lead-time projects. The company's strong Q3 profit margins were driven by cost efficiencies on existing, older contracts. However, as new, specifically assigned orders come in, the company will not be able to maintain similar cost efficiency. Consequently, the brokerage believes that profit margins will return to normal levels within approximately 2.5 years, coinciding with the completion of the current order backlog.

Sanjeev Singhal, Chairman & MD of Mazagon Dock, commented on the order book, “ We are executing the existing orders. So the FY25 normalized margin for our industry should be around 12-15% level. Except for the exceptional items like reversal of Liquidated Damages (LDs) and depending upon the D-448 (the acceptance documents for the delivery of ‘Vaghsheer’ submarine) execution, so we don't see much change for the existing orders.”

Geojit BNP Paribas notes that the stock was trading at a 61% premium to its 5 year average last week. Considering this expensive valuation coupled with its likely moderation in earnings growth the brokerage has assigned a ‘Sell’ rating to the stock with a target price of Rs 2,318, based on an expected 24.5x FY27 adjusted EPS.

4. PNB Housing Finance:

Thishousing finance company surged 20.3% over the past month, driven by 202% YoY growth in its affordable-segment loan book to Rs 5,000 crore in FY25 and two upgrades from credit rating agencies.

On March 29,CARE Ratings upgraded the company’s long-term bank facilities to 'CARE AA+' with a 'Stable' outlook, citing stronger asset quality and an improved market position. In reaction, the stock rose 5% on April 1.

Meanwhile,ICRA also upgraded the PNB Housing Finance’s rating to '[ICRA]AA+' with a 'Stable' outlook due to improved asset quality, strong capital resilience, and the stock’s inclusion in the futures and options segment. This upgrade also drove the rise in share price.

InQ3FY25, the company reported a 42.8% YoY increase in net profit, reaching Rs 483.3 crore. A 31% rise in retail disbursements and a 17.5% increase in retail loan assets drove growth. The net NPA improved by 34 basis points YoY, reaching 0.8% in Q3FY25.

Girish Kousgi, MD & CEO,said, “We are confident of achieving our target of a Rs 1 lakh crore retail book by the end of FY27, with the affordable segment contributing 15%, or Rs. 15,000 crore; emerging markets contributing 25%, or Rs. 25,000 crore; and the remaining from the Prime business.”

Management aims to achieve an NIM above 4% and plans to expand into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, growing its network to 500 branches by FY27. It also projects its corporate loan book to reach Rs 7,000-8,000 crore by FY27 and expects the retail loan book to grow by 17-18% annually. Management plans to introduce Loan Against Property (LAP) as a separate segment from FY26.

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on PNB Housing with a target price of Rs 1,160. The brokerage expects retail loan CAGR of approximately 18% by FY27 and projects an improvement in NIM from FY26, driven by lower credit costs and recoveries from previously written-off loans.

5. Shaily Engineering Plastics:

Thisplastics and health products company has nosedived in share price over the past week, falling 20% after ending FY25 on a high note with a year gain of over 250%. The stock has been hit by US President Trump's tariff announcements on Wednesday.

Shaily's relatively new pharma product line has been key to its dramatic growth momentum in the past two years. While revenues for Shaily's consumer and industrial segmentsgrew by 20% and 13% respectively YoY, its pharma segment has been the big outperformer for 9MFY24, growing at 57%. The company appears in a screener of stocks with high TTM EPS growth.

Shaily has ridden the massive growth wave in GLP weight-loss drugs, as a manufacturer of medical pens. The company has built a moat manufacturing insulin pens and auto injector pens (the latter is used to deliver doses of weight loss drugs). These pens are highly regulated, with a long approval process in the US and Europe. Shaily has received the requisite approvals and faces limited competition here.

The management identified this space early on, and the company’s UK R&D center has helped Shaily rapidly ramp up its innovation efforts over the past two years. In February, Managing Director Amit Sanghvi talked about the company's plans to grow aggressively in pen manufacturing, with a focus on auto-injectors. "From having about 35 million capacity right now, we're looking at adding another 50 million to 80 million over a short period of time", he said.

The new tariff regime announced by Trump however, may ruin the party. For Shaily’s clients, 60-70% of end-customers are in the US. Trump's ‘Liberation Day’ announcements are therefore a complicating factor for its business outlook.

Monarch Capital is among the brokerages with an accumulate call on Shaily (with a target price of Rs. 1,600). The analysts note that Shaily aims to increase its healthcare segment revenue contribution to 25% by FY27E vs. 18.6% currently.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

03 Apr 2025

Chart of the Week: Drop in multibagger stocks from 157 in FY24 to 18 in FY25

By Omkar Chitnis

As uncertainty jumped across global markets in FY25, Indian stocks turned volatile. In the first half, the Nifty 50 surged 16.98%, and reached a record high of 26,277.3 on 27 September 2024, supported by market momentum and investor enthusiasm. The trend turned in the second half, however, and portfolios turned red as India’s growth disappointed. Foreign investors pulled their money out, as highly valued Indian stocks posted disappointing corporate earnings in Q2 and Q3.

Hard questions about valuation, which always get postponed when markets are on a bull run, cropped up again. This led to an 8.8% decline in the second half of FY25, limiting the index’s overall return to just 5.3% for the overall financial year.

Despite these challenges, the market showed resilience towards the end of FY25. In March 2025, the Nifty 50 rose 6.3%, with early signs of government spending and improving economic indicators. Foreign investors returned as US stocks lost momentum. But Abhishek Jain, Head of Research, Arihant Capital, cautioned, “Investors should moderate their return expectations, as the market is shifting towards a stock-specific phase rather than broad-based rallies.”

In FY25, finding multibagger stocks proved trickier than usual. In FY24, 215 stocks (with market cap of Rs 5,000 crore and above) gave multibagger returns, but in this fiscal year it dropped to just 38. Similarly, among Nifty 500 stocks, 157 gave multibagger returns in FY24, but only 18 managed to do so in FY25.

Jai Balaji Industries, GE Vernova, and Aurionpro Solutions saw the highest returns of 2,031%, 640%, and 650% in FY24 but could not maintain that performance in FY25. Among the top multibaggers in FY24 and FY25, BSE was the only stock to feature in both years, delivering returns of 516% and 122.5%, respectively.

PG Electroplast, Shakti Pumps, V2 Retail, and Shaily Engineering are among the top stocks that outperformed the market trend in FY25. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyze the top multibagger stocks in FY25 and why they beat the market index.

Government incentivesgive defense, energy, and electronics industries a boost

The government’s 'Make in India' push gave electronics, defense, and renewable energy industries momentum in FY25. Increased spending and initiatives like the PLI scheme for white goods and electronics also drove growth in these sectors.

PG Electroplast, the largest supplier of plastic-molded components for the consumer electronics industry, saw its share price rise by over 476% in FY25. Increased demand for electronics, production shifts from China, and PLI benefits for white goods contributed to this growth.

Shakti Pumps, a market leader in solar pumps within the industrial machinery industry, saw a 335% stock gain. The company capitalized on its 40% share in solar PV water pumping systems and government schemes, securing orders of Rs 2,070 crore, including from the Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan state governments under PM-KUSUM for FY25. A QIP and a bonus issue contributed to the stock price jump.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, a leading manufacturer of defense warships and submarines within the defense industry, saw its stock price increase by 179% in FY25. Government orders and increased defense investments expanded its order book to Rs 34,787 crore in Q3FY25, supported by major contracts, including those for ONGC and submarine projects.

Some cyclical stocks rise on better operational and financial performance

Cyclical stocks in FY25 fluctuated due to economic slowdowns, commodity price changes, and supply chain disruptions. Sectors such as power, engineering, automotive, metals, and gold saw higher volatility. But companies like Shaily Engineering and GMR Power outperformed the broader market.

Shaily Engineering, a high-precision engineered plastic products exporter, saw its shares rise by 252% in FY25. Growth was supported by a 94% increase in healthcare sales and a 56% YoY rise in EBITDA. The company expects medical devices to contribute 25% of its revenue within three years.

GMR Power, an electric utilities company, saw its shares rise 160% after securing a Rs 7,593 crore smart meter order, reducing debt, and improving thermal plant efficiency. Asset monetization strengthened liquidity and drove a strong financial turnaround, pushing Q3FY25 operating revenue up 46.1% YoY.

PC Jeweller, a Gems & Jewelry company, rose 150%, driven by a Rs 3,760 crore debt settlement and Rs 646 crore fundraise, strengthening its balance sheet. The company turned profitable in FY25, with net profit surging 174.7% YoY and revenue soaring 1471.8% in Q3FY25.

Expansion and investments lift industrial, healthcare, and consumer stocks

Consumer discretionary spending is increasing, particularly among high-income households, despite inflation and higher interest rates. In response, industries are expanding their production capabilities. This shift has resulted in improved financial performance, positively impacting investors in these companies.

JSW Holdings, the holding company of the JSW Group, saw its share gain 217%, rising to Rs 22,985 in FY25. This growth was driven by investments in EV ventures, a $1.5 billion battery plant, non-ferrous metals, steel, and green energy. Strong Q2 and Q3FY25 performance contributed to the share price growth.

Transformers & Rectifiers, a heavy electrical equipment company, saw its shares rise 184% in FY25. This growth was supported by the energy expansion and a 145% YoY rise in work orders to Rs 3,686 crore by Q3FY25.

Wockhardt, a pharmaceutical firm, soared 154% to an eight-year high after reporting positive clinical results for its cancer drug Zaynich in the US and planning an India launch at an 85-90% discount. The company also reduced pledged shares from 69% to 37% and returned to a Rs 14 crore profit in Q3FY25.

Higher customer engagement boosts retail and telecom stocks

Indian companies have been using discounts and promotions to expand their customer base. A growing focus on digital platforms and personalized services is boosting stock performance for some players in retail and telecom.

V2 Retail Ltd, specializing in fashion retail, saw its shares surge by 300% in FY25. This was backed by a 58% rise in operating revenue, Rs 590.9 crore in Q3FY25, and a 117.2% YoY profit rise to Rs 51 crore. Sales per square foot improved to Rs 1,219 from Rs 1,085, reflecting better space utilization.

Bharti Hexacom, a telecom service company, rose 159.3%. The stock’s initial rise was driven by 'Buy' ratings from brokerage firms. Growth was supported by a higher mobile ARPU, which increased to Rs 241 in Q3FY25 from Rs 200 due to tariff hikes. Net profit grew 23% to Rs 261 crore, while operating revenue rose 25%. Mobile service revenue increased to 25.5%, supported by network expansion.

The Baseline

02 Apr 2025

Former multibaggers: The top ten disappointments of FY25

By Swapnil Karkare

Ever jumped on a trend that didn’t last? It could be a fitness craze (the "five minute workout"), a fashion fad (low-rise jeans - thank god that's over), or even an app (is anyone still using Threads?).

Stocks work the same way. Some rally on hype, only to crash when reality kicks in. A winner today can easily become a loser tomorrow.

As we say goodbye to FY25, we look back at stocks that were multibaggers in FY24 but fell on their faces in FY25.

We used this screener, along with the screener rewind feature, to shortlist Nifty500 stocks that outperformed in FY24 but saw the highest declines (over 25%) in FY25. We focused on the top 10 by market capitalisation.

Here are the ten stocks that went from market darlings to big disappointments.

Let's take a closer look.

Tata Motors (Rose 147% in FY24, fell 32% in FY25)

For several quarters, Tata Motors rode a wave of positive media coverage, after launching its Nexon EV in 2020. In FY24 it achieved its highest-ever revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow. Operational efficiency was up, it was seeing strong demand for JLR and great India sales. It also reduced its net debt from Rs. 43,700 crore to Rs. 16,000 crore.

But the management predicted weakness in H1 FY25 due to dying pent-up demand, rising inventory, elections and the heatwave. Then came Emkay’s downgrade last year. Indian demand slowed, JLR revenue was flat in Europe and China as customers turned to Chinese cars.

Rising competition in India didn't help. Tata Motors saw a marginal revenue increase of just 1.6% YoY in 9MFY25. Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on automobiles has also put pressure on the stock.

CLSA is optimistic due to a potential JLR recovery, EV plans, attractive valuations, and a cyclical rebound in the CV segment. But competition looms from every side, and it's a rocky road.

Indian Overseas Bank (Rose by 184% in FY24, fell by 35% in FY25)

Between July and September 2023, Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) nearly doubled its stock price, marking its best quarter since 2001.

But in September 2024, Goldman Sachs downgraded bigwig PSU bank SBI, citing slower loan growth and rising credit costs, especially in MSME, agricultural, and unsecured portfolios. This sparked negative sentiment across PSU banks. And a broader market correction hit IOB hard.

Despite ongoing improvements in asset quality and margins, IOB’s high valuation, trading at a 2.7x price-to-book (PB) ratio, second only to HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank at 2.9x, has deterred investors.

New India Assurance (Rose by 139% in FY24, fell by 32% in FY25)

According to HDFC Securities, RBI’s decision to raise risk weights for unsecured lending in 2023, led to a shift in investor interest from banks to insurance companies. Cheaper PSU insurers, some trading below their issue price, became more attractive.

New India Assurance is a market leader in general insurance, with around 45% of premiums coming from the health & personal accident sub-segment.

However, several catastrophic claims in FY24, rising competition from new-age players, and a muted H1FY25 have put the brakes on the company’s growth. Weak Q1FY25 results led FIIs and mutual funds to dump 13 PSU stocks, including New India Assurance.

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals (Rose by 331% in FY24, fell by 38% in FY25)

Gross refining margins (GRMs) – the difference between the purchase and selling price of petroleum products - is a key growth driver for this oil & gas company. Higher margins mean better profitability for MRPL. Its turnaround between Q2FY23 and Q2FY24 saw MRPL's GRM jump from $-4.5 to $17.1 per barrel, as improved debt-to-equity ratio drove share price gains.

But narrowing discounts on Russian oil and falling petro-product prices as China demand weakened, have caused GRM estimates to fall. That led to a ‘Sell’ call from Motilal Oswal in January last year.

Then, in Q1FY25, MRPL's net profit declined by 93% YoY despite a 10% YoY increase in revenue. Since then, the stock has not recovered.

Ircon International (Rose by 314% in FY24, fell by 29% in FY25)

Government capex has turned railway stocks into multibaggers in recent years. Ircon’s stock had a good run for a few years thanks to strong fundamentals: Between FY18 and FY24, investors noticed as its revenue tripled from around Rs. 4,200 crore to over Rs. 12,800 crore.

The railway construction company was also diversifying into highway contracts and renewable energy, with highways accounting for 16% of operating income in FY24, up from 7% in FY22.

However, stock prices have declined recently due to surprisingly poor results. Domestic revenue fell 16% YoY while order books shrunk by 22% in Q4FY25 due to fewer orders, smaller project sizes, and intense competitive bidding.

According to Prashanth Tapse of Mehta Equities, weak earnings and steep valuations have triggered a sector-wide sell-off. Ircon director Ragini Advani said, “This is a cyclical area where we will need to survive. But growth may not be possible in this time.”

Cyient (Rose by 101% in FY24, fell by 37% in FY25)

Cyient’s share price rise in FY24 was driven by the AI boom, the resilience of Engineering Research and Development (ER&D) companies against macro challenges, a strong revival in the aerospace sector, and cheaper valuations relative to its peers.

Axis Securities recognised Cyient as a strong long-term ER&D player but downgraded it to ‘hold’ after Q1FY25 results, citing Digital, Engineering & Technology (DET) revenue decline, which makes up over two-thirds of its revenue. Motilal Oswal downgraded it to ‘Sell’ after Q3FY25 results, anticipating a weak Q4 and slower FY26 revenue growth.

Swan Energy (Rose by 220% in FY24, fell by 36% in FY25)

Swan Energy operates across sectors like Oil & Gas, Defense, Petrochemicals, Real Estate and Textiles. It acquired Veritas India, transforming it from a petrochemical trading company into a PVC and LPG processing company, and Reliance Naval & Engineering, boosting its defence and shipbuilding vertical.

Between FY22 and FY24, Swan's operating revenue surged 10x, turning losses of Rs. 158 crore into a Rs. 609 crore profit. Its stock price rose from Rs. 192 in April 2022 to Rs. 670 in March 2024, a 3.5x increase. In November 2023, Ventura predicted further growth due to Reliance Naval’s turnaround, Veritas’ transformation, and steady real estate rental income.

But that prediction didn't pan out. Results weakened over the next quarters. The company’s other income rose from Rs. 31 crore in Q2FY25 to Rs. 1,868 crore in Q3FY25, almost at the same level as its operating income due to the divestment of its LNG Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU). Its operating expenses have spiked almost 3X over the last two quarters. Rising operational expenses and inefficiencies have dragged down the stock in the last few months.

Jyothy Labs (Rose by 138% in FY24, fell by 25% in FY25)

This FMCG company has evolved from a single-brand, ‘Ujala’, to fabric care, dishwash, household insecticide, and personal care categories with brands like Henko, Pril and Exo. Its stock price zoomed 20% on 25th July 2023, the day it announced its Q1FY24 results. In that quarter, its sales grew by 15% YoY while its profits doubled.

The company was confident about its growth prospects in FY24 due to lower inflation and improving demand. These results especially surprised the market because overall FMCG sales for the quarter fell by 4-5% YoY, according to retail intelligence firm, Bizom.

Jyothy management changed its tune in the recent quarter, talking about subdued demand because of inflationary pressures and urban slowdown. It is also worried about margins, which fell from 19% in Q2FY25 to 16% in Q3FY25. For the past few quarters, its net profit growth has been slowing down. In the previous quarter, its operating profit contracted by 2% YoY and net profit by 4% YoY. Most segments have recorded declining operating margins.

Birlasoft (Rose by 195% in FY24, fell by 48% in FY25)

Leadership changes under Birlasoft CEO Angan Guha were aimed at bringing about stability and revenue growth. The company has long struggled with a low deal win-to-revenue conversion, and low annuity revenue.

But in August 2023, Nomura highlighted the company’s operational streamlining efforts and projected a 30% upside in stock price. The stock doubled in just six months.

In February 2024, however, the CEO expressed concerns about a weakening demand environment. Following this, the company reported a 2.7% QoQ revenue decline in constant currency terms in Q1FY25 as customers tightened their discretionary spending.

Its Q3FY25 results further disappointed investors with low growth and deal wins. “Revenue is likely to decline further in Q4 due to furlough extensions and client ramp-down. The weak exit rate, along with smaller sized deals, paints a dismal picture for FY26 as well," said Nuvama Institutional Equities.

Jammu & Kashmir Bank (Rose by 194% in FY24, fell by 31% in FY25)

The bank's share price witnessed a remarkable rise from around Rs. 36 in December 2021 to over Rs. 140 in March 2024, driven by a significant turnaround under the leadership of MD and CEO Baldev Prakash. Key factors included improvement in the state of affairs and economy of Jammu & Kashmir along with asset quality, with gross non-performing assets (GNPA) declining from 9.7% in FY21 to 4.1% in December 2024.

However, the stock has faced pressures due to muted growth in 9MFY25, impacted by elections and severe winter conditions. Advances growth has been sluggish during Q3FY25, with net advances growing only 7% YoY, and GNPA reaching 4.08% from 3.95% in Q2. Slower recoveries due to strain on borrowers' repayment capacities have further weighed on investor sentiment. Despite these challenges, the bank expects a substantial improvement in Q4.

You can find the related screener here.

The Baseline

02 Apr 2025

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 02, 2025

By Divyansh Pokharna

1. Affle (India):

Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this internet software firm with a target price of Rs 1,880, indicating an upside of 18.5%. Affle is a digital advertising company that helps brands reach customers via mobile marketing. Analysts note that while the company has no immediate challenges, it’s cautious about possible US tariff hikes that could affect some clients. The company is streamlining its US operations by merging its business units into one entity, to mitigate currency fluctuations and potential tariff risks.

In 9MFY25, the company’s revenue grew 24% YoY, while net profit rose 32%, driven by a 31.9% rise in revenue from converted users. Affle’s management expects over 20% net profit growth in FY25. They also project EBITDA margins to improve to around 23% in the medium term, up from 19.5% in FY24.

Analysts expect Affle to deliver steady and scalable results through client conversions, driving growth over the medium to long term. They project a revenue CAGR of 23.2% over FY25-27.

2. Titagarh Rail Systems:

Geojit BNP Paribas initiates coverage on this commercial vehicles manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,050. This indicates a potential upside of 29.6%. The company’s 9MFY25 revenue rose 2% YoY to Rs 2,862 crore. Net profit increased by 6% to Rs 225 crore, helped by stable demand and cost control.

Analyst Sheen highlights that Titagarh Rail has strong revenue visibility, supported by an order book of Rs 25,333 crore. She notes that the company’s newly introduced verticals, signaling and safety systems, along with shipbuilding & maritime systems, are expected to contribute to revenue from FY26. This growth will be driven by increasing demand for advanced rail systems and maritime solutions.

Sheen notes that the medium-term growth prospects for Titagarh Rail are positive, supported by strong demand for passenger wagons, metro projects, and Vande Bharat production. This is backed by significant order inflows and expanding manufacturing capabilities.

3. Suven Pharmaceuticals:

ICICI Securities upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 1,400. This indicates an upside of 27.9%. In February 2024, PE firm Advent acquired a controlling stake in Suven and merged its entity, Cohance, with the company. Cohance makes cancer medicines and also produces a key ingredient used in cancer treatments. Analysts Abdulkader Puranwala and Nisha Shetty expect that the merger with Cohance will increase Suven’s revenue by 138% and its net profit by 108% in FY25.

In December 2024, Suven acquired a 56% stake in NJ Bio for $100 million. Cohance’s acquisition, along with NJ Bio’s capabilities, gives Suven a market opportunity in the antibody drug conjugates (ADC) sector, which has increased from $200 million to $1.4 billion. The company’s acquisition of Sapala Organics also marks its entry into the genetic medicines market.

Puranwala and Shetty expect the revenue share of the acquired entities to rise to 17% (currently at 10% of FY24 revenue) as the business gains momentum in the coming years. The company’s management aims for $1 billion in revenue by FY30, with plans to scale up to $2 billion by FY35.

4. Equitas Small Finance Bank:

BOB Capital Markets initiates coverage on this bank with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 73. This indicates an upside of 28.9%. Equitas Small Finance Bank’s loan book grew at a 22.5% CAGR between FY20-24. Analysts Niraj Jalan and Vijiya Rao note that the bank has shifted focus towards secured portfolios, with secured loans now making up 85.6% of the total (as of December 2024), up from 76.5% in March 2020.

Equitas plans to reduce its microfinance (MFI) portfolio share to single digits, from 14.4% in December 2024. Jalan and Rao project advances to grow at 21% CAGR from FY25-27, mainly driven by the secured loan portfolio.

In 9MFY25, the bank set aside Rs 340 crore in additional provisions, due to stress in its MFI portfolio and to keep its NNPA below 1%, which impacted profitability. Over the past year, the bank’s stock price has fallen by 38.6%.

5. Brigade Enterprises:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this Bengaluru-based realty company with a target price of Rs 1,415, indicating a potential upside of 44.5%. The company has achieved a 36% CAGR in presales from FY20 to FY24.

Brigade’s management aims to develop 15 million square feet (msf) of projects by FY27. Analysts Abhishek Lodhiya and Yohan Batliwala expect that new launches will enhance the company’s pipeline. They project a 24% CAGR in presales growth by FY27, along with a 10% CAGR in the realization of Rs 10,700 per square foot.

In 9MFY25, Brigade Enterprises launched new projects in Bengaluru and Chennai, along with new phases of existing launches, covering 7.5 msf. The company has added 8 msf of land since January 2025 to its portfolio in YTD FY25 and plans to expand in Kerala and enter the Mysuru market by FY26.

Analysts expect the Bengaluru region to contribute 50-80% of Brigade's presales by FY27, and anticipate that the listing of Brigade Hospitality Portfolio (Brigade Hotel Ventures) will create long-term growth opportunities for the company.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

28 Mar 2025

Five Interesting Stocks Today - March 28, 2025

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Hindustan Aeronautics:

This defence company surged 9.4% over the past week as it received the first of 99 engines for the Tejas Mk 1A Fighter Jet after a two-year delay. Analysts view this as a crucial step in allaying execution risks.

Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh emphasizes the urgency of addressing the jet shortage, stating that the Indian Air Force must add up to 40 jets annually. He adds that HAL has committed to produce 24 Tejas jets annually starting next year. Analysts note that production will scale up gradually and reach full capacity by 2030.

With HAL expecting twelve jet engines this year, analysts believe they can deliver ten jets in 2026. Forecaster expects revenue growth to be flat this fiscal year due to supply bottlenecks leading to production delays. However, it expects revenue growth of over 18% in FY26. HAL shows up in a screener of stocks where FIIs/FPIs have increased their shareholding over the past quarter.

HAL currently holds an order book of Rs 1.2 lakh crore. The company is also pursuing contracts for another 97 Tejas jets and 156 light combat helicopters (Prachanda). These contracts are expected to be finalised in the next six months. Thanks to this, management projects an order inflow of Rs 1 lakh crore in FY26, bringing the total order book to Rs 2.2 lakh crore, targeted for execution by 2030.

ICICI Securities upgrades HAL to ‘Buy’ and calls the delivery of the first F-404 jet engine “a monumental milestone.” The brokerage forecasts revenue growth of around 25% over FY26-27, and an EPS CAGR of 39% during the same period. With a target price of Rs 5,000, HAL has a potential upside of around 20%.

2. Bharat Forge:

This forging company has gained 12.6% over the past month, supported by multiple positive developments. On March 27, the company secured an order of over Rs 4,000 crore from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to supply advanced towed artillery gun systems (ATAGS). Earlier this month, Bharat Forge’s subsidiary, Kalyani Powertrain, partnered with Taiwan’s Compal Electronics to manufacture servers in India.

Analysts believe the possibility of higher tariffs from the US remains a key risk for the company’s core business growth in the medium term. Bharat Forge is focusing on expanding its non-auto businesses, such as aerospace, defence, and other industrial sectors. Recently, it also entered an agreement with a European company to set up a new aerospace manufacturing facility. However, analysts note that the uneven pace of order execution in these segments could affect its overall growth.

During Q3FY25, the company’s revenue fell by 10.1% YoY, mainly due to weak performance in its European business and a slowdown in the defence segment. The forgings segment, which contributes 85% to the company’s total revenue, reported an 8.9% decline. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue will remain flat in FY25 and grow by 9.7% in FY26 as investments materialise.

Amit Kalyani, Joint Managing Director and Vice Chairman, said, “For FY26, we expect a capital expenditure of around Rs 300 crore. The capex for our US operations is complete. Going forward, investments will only be in Indian subsidiaries and will not exceed Rs 250 crore.” He also said the company aims to improve its profit margins by 250-300 bps over the next 2-3 years through a better product mix and operating leverage.

Geojit BNP Paribas has downgraded the stock to a ‘Hold’ rating with a target price of 1,302. The brokerage expects steady positive momentum in domestic defence and auto businesses, with overseas operations supporting long-term growth. It also expects the defence order book to grow further, which could help improve profitability.

3. Kalpataru Projects International:

This construction & engineering company has risen by 3.8% over the past week after it received new orders worth Rs 2,366 crore in the transmission & distribution (T&D), and buildings & factories (B&F) businesses in India and overseas on March 25. Kalpataru Projects (KPIL) features in a screener of companies where mutual funds increased shareholding in the past month.

KPIL handles the end-to-end execution of projects in power transmission, water supply, railways, oil & gas, urban mobility, highways, and airports. During March, the company also secured orders worth Rs 2,306 crore across its businesses for projects in India and abroad.

During Q3FY25, KPIL reported a 0.8% YoY increase in net profit at Rs 142 crore. Revenue grew 17.1%, reaching Rs 5,732.5 crore. EBITDA margin stood at 8.4% for the quarter. Sluggish execution in the water business due to delayed collections weighed on overall growth. However, with Rs 1,000 crore infused in 9MFY25 and the Union Budget’s push for 100% tap water coverage, faster collections and execution should boost momentum.

The company’s order book stood at Rs 61,429 crore in Q3, with 38% coming from T&D, 22% from B&F, and 16% from water segments. With these new orders, the company’s order inflow stands at Rs 24,850 crore YTD in FY25, providing strong visibility for improved execution and growth. Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects KPIL’s revenue to grow around 27% YoY in Q4FY25.

Manish Mohnot, MD & CEO, said, “Our T&D order book continues to grow, driven by widening power demand-supply gap, grid upgrades, renewable push, and a focus on improvement of T&D infrastructure. This presents a strong growth opportunity for KPIL”.

Axis Securties maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Kalpataru, and sets a target price of Rs 1,350. The brokerage believes the company is poised to benefit from a robust order book, favourable sectoral tailwinds, improved performance of international subsidiaries, and supportive government initiatives.

4. Mankind Pharma:

This pharmaceutical company rose by over 8% in the past week. On March 12th, the company launched generic versions of Empagliflozin, a diabetes drug in India. This launch was followed by the expiration of the patent for Empagliflozin in India, which led to an opening for domestic pharma companies to launch generic versions of the drug. The estimated market size for Empagliflozin and its combination therapies in India is around Rs 640 crore. Pharmarack data shows the drug's sales volume has grown at a 1% CAGR over the past five years, with a 3% value growth.

Regarding this launch, the company's Vice Chairman & MD, Rajeev Juneja, said, "By assigning two dedicated teams to promote these offerings under separate brands, we aim to enhance market penetration and expand our reach in this competitive segment."

The company announced its Q3FY25 results on January 23. Its net profit had declined by 16.2% YoY to Rs 380.2 crore due to a rise in employee expenses. However, its revenue increased by 23.5% due to strong growth across the domestic, consumer healthcare and export businesses. The company’s revenue beat forecaster estimates by 1% supported by the Bharat Serums and Vaccines (BSV) acquisition in October 2024. It appears on the screener for stocks with annual profit growth higher than sector profit growth.

Ashutosh Dhawan, Chief Financial Officer of Mankind Pharma, said, “Our capex spend for 9MFY25 was Rs 344 crore, accounting for 3.7% of total revenue, in line with our guidance of 4% to 5%. To maintain financial discipline and a healthy leverage ratio, we repaid Rs 3,000 crore of debt in Q3 using proceeds from the QIP. As of the quarter-end, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA stands at 2.2x, and we aim to reduce it to 2x by year-end.”

Geojit BNP Paribas recommended an ‘Accumulate’ rating on Mankind Pharma, anticipating positive fiscal outcomes from the restructuring of BSV's pharmaceutical segment. This acquisition is a major step for the company, positioning it as a potential leader in India’s women’s health and fertility drug market, while also granting access to high-entry barrier products in critical care. The brokerage notes that this deal has increased the company’s overall market share to 4.8%, from 4.4% before the acquisition.

5. Hero MotoCorp:

This two-wheeler manufacturer surged 3.5% over the past week following its March 20 announcement of an investment in the electric three-wheeler segment. The company is acquiring a 32.5% stake in Euler Motors for Rs 525 crore to diversify its portfolio.

Euler Motors builds and sells electric three-wheelers, and recently introduced its first electric commercial four-wheeler. This investment strengthens Hero MotoCorp’s position in the electric three-wheeler segment, where electric vehicles are projected to constitute 35% of total vehicle sales by 2030, up from 7.4% as of 2024.

In Q3, the company’s revenue grew 5.3% YoY to Rs 10,566.3 crore, while net profit rose 1.3% YoY to Rs 1,107.6 crore, beating Forecaster estimates. The growth was driven by an 11.4% rise in retail sales, a 4.7% YoY increase in the average selling price to Rs 69,756 per vehicle, and an increase in revenue from parts, accessories, and merchandise.

Vivek Anand, CFO of the company, said, “For FY25, the guidance we have given is for double-digit revenue growth. Looking at our first nine months performance and at this quarter (fourth), we believe that this (a double-digit revenue growth) will repeat next year also.” The growth is expected to be driven by recovery in rural and urban markets, its 125cc motorcycle lineup expansion, and new product launches. The company’s 125cc segment’s market share has increased from 14% to over 21% as of Q3.

Hero MotoCorp is expanding its premium portfolio with motorcycles like the Xtreme 250R and Xpulse 210 and premium scooters like the Xoom 125 and Xoom 160. The company’s EBITDA per vehicle has surpassed Rs 10,000 following the launch of Hero Premia stores, which focus on higher-value products. Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects the company's revenue to grow 3.3% YoY and its net profit to increase by 20.1% in Q4FY25.

Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and raises target prices to Rs 5,285, citing the company’s focus on core business growth, premium segment expansion, EV investments, and revenue diversification.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

27 Mar 2025

Chart of the Week: Most new-age IT IPOs drop in valuations post listing

By Omkar Chitnis

In 2024, India became the world’s second-largest equity fundraising market after the US, driven by a surge in IPOs. Many new-age companies are listed at high valuations, attracting significant investments from both domestic and foreign investors. Experts predict that 2025 could be a record-breaking year, with IPOs expected to raise over $20 billion.

India's IPO market grew significantly in 2024, raising a record Rs 1.6 lakh crore. Many companies capitalized on investor enthusiasm and positive market sentiment, leading to inflated valuations.

Aggressive marketing by teams pre-IPO, and high brand recognition for some companies - despite being loss-making – garnered high participation even with steep valuations. These companies saw their valuations fell post-listing as the rules of the public market kicked in: regular financial and sales disclosures, closer business scrutiny, and questions from analysts.

These companies discover that the valuation rules of venture capital and public markets are very different. Steptrade Share Service founder Kresha Gupta states, “Many new-age unicorns are 'loss-making' because their valuations are largely driven by market share and consumer dominance. However, retail investors start evaluating the company on the basis of fundamentals like revenue, profit margins, and debt when they go public.”

While some IPOs, like Zomato and PB Fintech, have successfully crossed the bridge into public markets, others such as Swiggy and Ola Electric, have seen significant declines in market value. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyze the valuations of top new-age IT companies before and after their IPOs and explore the factors influencing their current market performance.

Ola and Paytm face valuation decline amid regulatory hurdles

Ola Electric is facing mounting challenges with every news cycle. CEO Bhavish Aggarwal once stated, "Tesla is for the West, Ola for the rest." That quote has not aged well. Once valued at Rs 46,290 crore during its pre-IPO phase, Ola Electric has seen a significant valuation decline since its stock market debut. Since its IPO in August 2024, the company’s stock has fallen by 27.2%.

Ola Electric is grappling with operational inefficiencies, customer-related concerns and a PR debacle. Customer complaints on Ola scooters have ballooned and repair centers have been overwhelmed.

Sales have declined for three consecutive quarters, reducing its market share from 50% in May 2024 to 18% in January 2025. In February 2025, government data showed a market share of 11.4%, while Ola reported 28%, reflecting discrepancies due to sales delays and unregistered scooters, further impacting stock prices.

Falling revenue, delays in product launches and the exit of key executives contributed to the decline in performance, while legal and regulatory challenges have grown.

Paytm, once valued at Rs 1.4 lakh crore during its pre-IPO phase, has seen a sharp decline in valuation since its market debut in November 2021. Initially listed at Rs 1,950 per share, its stock dropped 27.7% on the first day, hitting the lower circuit. Since then, Paytm’s market capitalization has shrunk by nearly two-thirds, falling to Rs 47,000 crore.

The real plunge occurred after the lock-in period ended, with major investors like SoftBank, Alibaba, and Berkshire Hathaway exiting.

In January 2024, the RBI ordered Paytm Payments Bank to cease operations due to regulatory violations, severely impacting its digital payments business. Monthly active users fell from 168 million to 68 million by September 2024. Additionally, rising competition from UPI and private players reduced its market share from 40% in 2018 to 5.5% in 2024, raising concerns about its long-term sustainability.

Swiggy and Nykaa see declining valuations due to margin pressures

Swiggy debuted on the Indian stock market in November 2024 with a pre-IPO valuation of $11.3 billion (~ Rs 96,008 crore), lower than its initial target of $15 billion (~ Rs 1.3 lakh crore). Since then, its stock has declined by 43.2%, erasing nearly Rs 60,000 crore in market capitalization, bringing its current valuation to Rs 78,889 crore.

Swiggy faces rising cash burn, high competition in the quick commerce sector, and a slowdown in its core food delivery business. Operational expenses have surged due to dark store expansion and intense competition - both food delivery and quick commerce being cut-throat markets right now – contributing to increasing net losses.

Similarly, Nykaa, which was valued at Rs 53,204 crore during its pre-IPO stage, saw its market cap rise to Rs 99,481 crore on listing day. However, by March 2025, its valuation dropped to Rs 49,506.4 crore, with the stock falling 57%. Increased competition from Myntra, Ajio, and traditional retailers and higher marketing expenses have negatively impacted its performance.

Financially, Nykaa is struggling with slim margins and inconsistent profitability. To stay competitive, Nykaa is investing heavily in expanding its warehouse network. In the most recent quarter, the company allocated 13% of its capex to expanding its network in the first half of FY26. However, rising costs and intense competition have led to a significant drop in Nykaa's valuation and stock price.

Zomato and Policy Bazaar’s valuations grow, helped by expansion and strong financials

Zomato debuted in 2021 with a Rs 1.1 lakh crore valuation, more than double its pre-IPO valuation of Rs 47,147 crore. Since then, its market capitalization has surged to Rs 2.2 lakh crore. This growth was driven by business expansion, rising demand, and strong investor confidence. Its inclusion in the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 attracted passive investments, which helped push the company’s valuation higher.

Between 2021 and 2025, Zomato’s market share in food delivery grew from 47% to 58%. The acquisition of Blinkit strengthened its presence in quick commerce, and by March 2024, Blinkit turned adjusted EBITDA positive. Expanding dark stores and rising order volumes improved profitability, leading to increased investor interest. Multiple brokerages remained bullish, raising margin and profitability estimates. These factors helped Zomato’s stock deliver a 183% return since its listing.

PB Fintech, the parent company of Policybazaar and Paisabazaar, was valued at Rs 45,187 crore before its IPO. At the time of its listing in November 2021, the company’s valuation was Rs 42,763 crore. Since then, its valuation has increased by nearly 25%, reaching Rs 77,357 crore. The company expanded into personal finance and lending services through Paisabazaar, diversifying its revenue streams.

In FY24, PB Fintech reported a 37% year-on-year increase in insurance premiums, along with a significant rise in new protection premiums, including health and term insurance. Additionally, PB Fintech improved its operating profit margin from -23% in FY23 to -5% in FY24 by implementing cost-reduction measures and focusing on operational efficiency.

The rise in annual renewal income, achieving an 85% margin, has further boosted profitability. To cut risks in unsecured lending, PB Fintech is prioritizing secured loan products like home loans. The company aims to achieve Rs 1,000 crore in net profit by FY27 and is considering a $100 million investment in new ventures