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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    02 May 2025
    Analysts predict the winners and losers in this results season

    Analysts predict the winners and losers in this results season

    By Swapnil Karkare

    It's been foggy days for Q4 results. The results so far aren’t giving us a clear, one-size-fits-all headline. Some sectors are riding strong on demand, while others are battling cost pressures, weak spending and project delays.

    Analyst views are also all over the place. Crisil projects that overall revenue growth for Q4 will be flat at about 5-6%, but that profitability may improve. But Morgan Stanley expects a single-digit decline in profits, hitting a 19-quarter low due to weak revenues and falling margins. 

    This quarter matters more than most. It gives us an early sense of how India Inc. is preparing for FY26 in an uncertain global environment.

    While results so far have been mixed, most results are still not out. So we decided to take a look at what institutional analysts are predicting, with the help of Forecaster. This tells us the numbers Nifty 500 companies are likely to see across revenues, earnings, margins, and capex in this quarter's results.

    The indicators we use here are: Q4 estimated revenue growth (YoY%), Q4 estimated earnings per share growth (YoY%), expected change in EBITDA Margin from Q3FY25 to Q4FY25 (percentage points), and FY25 capex growth (YoY%).

    Let's dive in!

    Revenue winners and losers: Strong numbers look likely for some, with pockets of weaknesses

    This quarter looks like a good one for consumer-focused and manufacturing companies. These businesses could see revenues go up from strong demand and new product lines, while infra, energy, and NBFC players grapple with regulatory issues, cost and execution headwinds.

    Elara Securities expectsconsumer electronics companies to benefit from increased local manufacturing, and consumer durable firms to gain from festive demand. In real estate, top developers are likely to see growth from demand in major cities and premium launches, while smaller players face challenges.

    Among individual companies, Inox Wind is forecast to deliver strong revenue growth thanks to robust sales of its new 3MW wind turbines. Suven Pharma is expected to benefit from rising CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisation) demand and recent acquisitions like Cohance and NJ Bio.

    In electronics, Dixon Technologies continues to be a star player, and should see higher revenues from increased mobile manufacturing, growth in its iSmartu brand, and strong refrigeration sales.

    Sobha in real estate is likely to gain from over 20% higher bookings in Q4, while Bharat Dynamics in defence may grow with the execution of pending MRSAM (Medium Range Surface to Air Missile) orders.

    On the other hand, NBFC revenues may drop due to weak demand, higher credit costs, and stress in microfinance, with net interest margins (NIMs) expected to shrink because of slow rate cuts.Aditya Birla Capital for example, could face topline pressure from regulatory tightening and weak credit growth.

    The energy sector may face revenue pressure due to low crude price realisation and high LNG costs. Gujarat State Petronet may be hit by lower LNG production, costly imports and weak pipeline utilisation. Infra and industrial firms like KNR Constructions, PNC Infratech and Siemens see struggles ahead with project delays and a weaker government capex. 

    EPS (Earnings Per Share) winners and losers: Consumer players shine, while Energy and Auto are under pressure

    HDFC Securities is expecting a profitable quarter for the retail, jewellery and durables sectors, driven by improved consumer sentiment, stable raw material costs and rising temperatures. 

    Sobha is set to benefit from strong bookings, while FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa)’s growing beauty segment and reduced fashion losses are expected to give its profits a boost.

    Another potential winner is Sumitomo Chemical, which should gain from a favourable rabi season, solid exports, and stable costs.

    Post its Gulf exit, healthcare company Aster DM Healthcare could improve profitability through cost optimisation and network expansion. Gujarat Fluorochemicals could benefit from industry tailwinds and recovering refrigerant gas prices.

    On the flip side, Prestige Estates could see earnings pressure due to a high base and project delays. For Manappuram Finance, rising defaults in its microfinance book remain a concern. Meanwhile, Eternal's aggressive push to scale Blinkit might continue to weigh on profitability.

    The revenue headwinds for PNC Infratechand Gujarat State Petronet mentioned earlier are also likely to spill over into its earnings.

    At the sector level, consumer discretionary earnings are expected to rise, led by platforms like Swiggy and Nykaa, as well as jewellery firms gaining from elevated gold prices. 

    In contrast, EPS for the energy sector may fall due to weaker marketing margins and LPG under-recoveries. Similarly, auto could see muted earnings, with pressures from low operating leverage, intense passenger vehicle competition, and rising input costs, especially in natural rubber.

    A margin squeeze comes for everyone

    On the margin front, Q4FY25 is shaping up to be a challenging quarter, with a sequential decline expected across all sectors. Morgan Stanley writes, “Indian corporates' margins are likely to contract for the first time in two years.” 

    However, among the few companies that stand out, DLF could post margin gains from a larger share of high-margin, super-luxury residential projects and robust NRI demand. Balrampur Chini and Triveni Engineering in the sugar sector are also expected to expand margins, supported by higher sugar prices amid lower cane availability and increased ethanol diversion.

    Natco Pharma could see better margins thanks to a favourable business mix between domestic and US markets, while Bharat Dynamics should benefit from strong revenue traction.

    On the red side,Sun TV could suffer from slower FMCG ad spending and a soft theatrical release pipeline. Delays in delivering orders have likely dragged margins for Data Patterns, too. Kansai Nerolac might also see margin compression due to muted demand and intensified competition, while rising operating costs and fewer days in the quarter are expected to impact Airtel's margins.

    Weaker government capex has compressed the margins of industrials like KNR Constructions. These two sectors - telecom and industrials - could report the highest sequential declines in margins this quarter.

    Capex and private sector spending may finally see some pickup

    On the capex front, FY25 is shaping up to be a year of strong private investment across sectors, even as government capex shows signs of slowing. The Ministry of Statistics highlights this trend, noting: “Despite challenges like weak demand, geopolitical tensions, and high borrowing costs, about 30% of firms plan to invest in upgradation in 2024–25, supporting the sharp increase in capex for that year. The slightly lower intended capex for 2025–26, though still above 2023–24 levels, reflects caution after a strong 2024–25”.

    Leading the capex charts is the telecom sector, thanks mainly to Vodafone Idea. The company has rolled out a massive Rs. 50,000–55,000 crore investment plan over the next three years to upgrade its 4G and launch 5G services, out of which Rs. 10,000 crore is set to be spent in FY25 alone. Real estate is another sector making big investment moves, with Brigade and DLF leading the charge through expansion into new regions and a push to complete ongoing projects.

    Among other sectors, IndiGo is focused on expanding its international footprint and upgrading its fleet, while Eternal's Blinkit wants to proliferate its dark stores and warehouses network.

    However, a few companies are hitting the brakes. Inox Wind and Godrej Properties are expected to adopt a more conservative stance, focusing on executing existing projects, managing debt, and optimising cash flows. Similarly, Ramkrishna Forgings and Lemon Tree Hotels are looking to consolidate after recent expansion, while Bikaji Foods plans to prioritise higher utilisation of its current capacity before committing to new investments.

    Across the board, most sectors are leaning toward higher capex in FY25, signalling growing confidence in the business cycle recovery and future demand prospects.

    Some clear signals are emerging

    Q4FY25 is expected to be a quarter of contrasts, with strong revenue momentum in consumer-facing sectors, but margin and earnings pressures for industries linked to energy and autos. On the upside, capex plans are ambitious across key sectors, pointing to long-term growth optimism.

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    The Baseline
    30 Apr 2025
    Upcoming results tracker: Stocks outperforming their industries in Q3 results, with strong Forecaster estimates for Q4

    Upcoming results tracker: Stocks outperforming their industries in Q3 results, with strong Forecaster estimates for Q4

    By Abdullah Shah

    As the Q4FY25 result season is underway, we look at stocks that posted strong results in Q3FY25, where Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects continued growth in Q4FY25. This screener shows stocks outperforming their industries in YoY revenue and net profit growth in Q3FY25, with strong Forecaster estimates for YoY revenue and earnings per share (EPS) growth in Q4FY25

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the heavy electrical equipment, realty, healthcare facilities, pharmaceuticals, and software & services industries. Major stocks in the screener are Signaturglobal (India), Suzlon Energy, Inox Wind, Sobha, Amber Enterprises, Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), and PB Fintech.

    Signatureglobal (India)’s YoY revenue surged the most, by 193.7% in Q3FY25, while its net profit rose by 1,266.3%.  Strong sales in projects like Titanium SPR, the township projects of Daxin, the City of Colours, and the Twin Towers helped with revenue growth. Trendylne’s Forecaster expects this realty company’s YoY revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to increase by 97.7% and 51.8%, respectively, in Q4FY25. Analysts at Axis Direct believe that the firm will sustain its strong growth momentum on the back of its strategy to capitalise on Gurugram’s urbanisation, new micro-markets in Delhi and a project pipeline of 26.1 million square feet with a gross development value (GDV) of Rs 35,000 crore.

    Inox Wind also shows up in the screener after a YoY revenue and net profit growth of 81% and 18.8% in Q3FY25, driven by an 89% rise in order execution to 189 mega watt (MW). Forecaster expects this heavy electrical equipment company’s YoY revenue and EPS to improve by 158.3% and 616.9% during Q4FY25. Analysts at Systematix Institutional Equities expect the firm to show strong performance, led by improving deliveries of 3MW wind turbine generator (WTG) sets, and better execution. They believe that a pickup in engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) contracts and ramp-up of manufacturing operations will boost execution.

    Amber Enterprises' YoY revenue and net profit grew by 64.8% and 52.2%, respectively, in Q3FY25, helped by strong performance in the consumer durables, electronics, room air conditioner (RAC), and non-RAC segments. Forecaster expects this consumer electronics company’s YoY revenue and EPS to rise by 22% and 47.1%, respectively, in Q4FY25. Analysts at Sharekhan believe that the company is well-positioned to capture the increasing demand from the components (including mobility, electronics, and non-RAC components) ecosystem. Management expects growth in components, new customer additions, and exports in the next 3-4 years.

    Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)’s YoY revenue rose 57.4% in Q3FY25, driven by a 32% and 116% YoY increase in futures and options volumes. The capital markets company posted a net profit of Rs 160 crore in Q3FY25 compared to a net loss of Rs 5.4 crore in Q3FY24, owing to an 86.3% decline in IT and related expenses. Forecaster expects its YoY revenue and EPS to grow by 62% and 88.5%, respectively. Motilal Oswal expects the firm’s top line to grow, driven by new product launches in the futures and options segments, continued volatility in commodity prices, and sustained growth in retail participation in the options market.

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    The Baseline
    29 Apr 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 29, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 29, 2025

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. ICICI Bank:

    KR Choksey maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 1,662. This indicates an upside of 16.2%. In Q4FY25, the bank’s net interest income (NII) grew by 11% YoY to Rs 21,192.9 crore. Advances increased by 13.3%, supported by strong growth in the corporate loan, credit card, and mortgage segments. However, the bank’s current account savings account (CASA) ratio stood at 38.4% for the quarter, slightly lower than 38.9% in Q4FY24.

    The company's management believes that deposit growth will stay strong, helped by improved liquidity in the system. ICICI Bank recently cut its savings account interest rates by 25 bps. Balances up to Rs 50 lakh will now earn 2.75% interest, while higher balances will earn 3.25%. The management expects this will make it easier to pass on lower interest rates and reduce the bank’s cost of raising funds.

    Analyst Ishank Gupta said, “Despite industry-wide credit pressures, the bank kept its asset quality strong, with GNPA at 1.7% and NNPA at 0.4%, helped by careful lending and strong provisions.” He also noted that the bank’s diversified loan portfolio and focus on high-yield segments, like corporate loans and credit cards, provide a foundation for continued profitability.

    2. Home First Finance:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this housing finance company with a target price of Rs 1,500, indicating an upside of 17.7%. The company raised Rs 1,250 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP) in April 2025. Analysts Abhijit Tibrewal, Nitin Aggarwal and Raghav Khemani note that this capital will help Home First expand its business over the next 3–4 years, and strengthen its leadership in the affordable housing finance (AHF) segment.

    Home First Finance has expanded its geographic reach to reduce concentration risk and target emerging markets. It has seen some success, as the share of the top five states in total assets under management (AUM) fell from 78% in FY22 to 69% as of December 2024. The company plans to open 30–40 new branches in FY26, focusing on states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. This expansion aims to capitalise on the growing housing demand in tier 2 and tier 3 cities.

    The company has surpassed Rs 10,000 crore in AUM and is likely to seek a credit rating upgrade after the recent capital raise. A higher credit rating would help reduce its borrowing costs. Tibrewal, Aggarwal, and Khemani project a CAGR of 26% for AUM and 31% for net profit over FY25-27.

    3. Atul:

    Emkay initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this specialty chemicals company with a target price of Rs 8,500. This indicates a potential upside of 25.7%. Atul has invested around Rs 2,000 crore over FY22–24 to expand capacity in existing products, including liquid epoxy resin (LER) and caustic soda. It commissioned a new 50 kilo tonnes per annum (ktpa) LER plant, increasing total LER capacity to 80 ktpa, and also set up a 300 tonnes per day (tpd) caustic soda plant. 

    Additionally, the company has invested in backward integration into key products like mono chloro acetic acid (MCA) to support margin improvement. Analysts Meet Vora and Meet Gada note that 20–40% of existing capacity across various products is still underutilised. They highlight that the new capacities, along with the ramp-up of some underutilised ones, could generate around Rs 25,000–30,000 crore in revenue over the next 2–3 years, driven purely by volume growth.

    Atul’s share price has declined by 11.5% over the past six months. Vora and Gada expect Atul to generate around Rs 2,000 crore in operating cash flow over the next three years. A significant portion of this is likely to be reinvested in growth-related capex, although some of the plans are still being finalised. They project a revenue and net profit CAGR of 15% and 37%, respectively, over FY25–27.

    4. Ujjivan Small Finance:

    Axis Direct initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this microfinance bank with a target price of Rs 49. This indicates a potential upside of 11.6%. Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya and Pranav Nawale highlight that the bank’s collection efficiency (CE) and credit costs have improved QoQ across all states.

    Analysts believe that microfinance loan (MFI) stress is gradually decreasing due to the rise in secured lending products across its key states, including Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. They expect MFI stress to ease by H1FY26, driven by improvements in asset quality.

    The bank’s management is aiming to shift the majority of its portfolio mix towards secured micro mortgage products, such as gold loans and vehicle finance, to balance the portfolio mix and reduce risk. In FY25, the non-MFI portfolio rose by 50% YoY. 

    Vaidya and Nawale expect net interest margins (NIMs) to remain between 8.5-8.8% and return on assets (ROA) to range from 1.9-2.1% by FY27. This outlook is supported by a focus on low-cost CASA deposits and benefits from the ongoing rate-cut cycle.

    5. Tata Consultancy Services:

    Geojit BNP Paribas retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this IT software company with a target price of Rs 3,671, indicating an upside potential of 5.7%. The company’s Q4FY25 revenue rose 5.3% YoY to Rs 64,479 crore, driven by strong traction in emerging markets and deal wins.

    In Q4FY25, TCS’ India revenue grew by 33.1% YoY, driven by increased state government investments in digital platforms for education automation and employability. However, EBITDA declined by 1.1% to Rs. 16,980 crore due to higher employee benefit expenses and increased software license costs. The company’s stock price has dropped by 14% over the past quarter.

    Analyst Vincent notes that the tariff war indirectly impacts IT companies due to supply chain disruptions in sectors such as auto, manufacturing, and retail, and businesses tightening their belts. He believes TCS will address these tariff-related challenges by leveraging AI for IT cost savings and focusing on industry-specific AI and data solutions. It has to be noted however, that ‘AI’ is doing a lot of work for TCS in managing expectations here.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    25 Apr 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 25, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 25, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Dixon Technologies:

    This consumer electronics maker rose over 5.4% on April 22 on reports that Alphabet may shift part of its Pixel smartphone production from Vietnam to India amid potential US tariff hikes. With India bit by lower US tariffs (26% vs. Vietnam’s 46%), it is emerging as a more cost-effective manufacturing hub. Dixon’s subsidiary Padget Electronics currently produces 43,000–45,000 Pixel units a month and is in talks with Foxconn to scale up output.

    This move is part of a broader trend among global tech firms to diversify their manufacturing bases amid rising US-China trade tensions. Dixon is well-positioned to benefit from this shift away from China, as India becomes the preferred destination for component manufacturing.

    In response to tariffs, China imposed curbs on capital equipment exports used in manufacturing electronic products. Analysts believe these curbs from China will largely impact Apple supplier Foxconn, and Lenovo in India. There are concerns that this move may also hurt Indian players like Dixon, Lava and Micromax. 

    During Q3, Dixon Technologies’ revenue surged 117.2% YoY to Rs 10,063.2 crore, driven by improvements in the mobile (which contributes 89% of the revenue), home appliances, and lighting products segments. Net profit grew 77.5%. Systematix projects a 159% YoY revenue growth for Q4, led by a sharp jump in the mobile segment. The growth was driven by a ramp-up in volumes at Ismartu, in which Dixon acquired a majority stake in July 2024.

    Earlier in April, the Union Cabinet approved a Rs 23,000 crore production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for electronics component manufacturing. Analysts expect the company to be a key beneficiary of the PLI scheme. They believe the company will ramp up its backward integration into display assembly, camera module assembly and mechanical components.

    Meanwhile, on March 27, the company announced a 50:50 joint venture (JV) with Netherlands-based Signify, which owns lighting brands like Philips and EcoLink. The JV aims to manufacture lighting products and accessories in India. Commenting on this, Saurabh Gupta, the CFO, said, “This JV with Signify can drive our lighting segment revenue to Rs 2,000 crore from Rs 800 crore, within the next couple of years”.

    Systematix has a buy rating on Dixon Technologies with a Rs 15,587 target price. The brokerage notes that the company is using its strong manufacturing base to expand into high-growth areas like display modules and IT hardware (laptops, tablets).

    2.HCL Technologies:

    This IT consulting firm rose 9.8% over the past week after announcing its Q4FY25 results. The company’s revenue grew 1.1% QoQ to Rs 30,695 crore in Q4, in line with Forecaster estimates. However, its net profit fell 6.2% QoQ due to higher employee benefits and tax expenses. 

    If we look at the revenue mix, the IT & Business Services segment, accounting for over 74% of the total revenue, witnessed a marginal growth of 0.3% on a QoQ basis. For FY26, HCL Tech has guided for a revenue growth of 2–5%, while aiming to maintain its EBIT margin in the range of 18–19%.

    HCL Tech’s outlook for FY26 looks stronger than its peers, TCS and Infosys. Infosys expects a 0–3% revenue growth this year, while TCS said its FY26 will be better than FY25, but only in terms of international revenue. Analysts say that HCL Tech’s lower-end guidance growth assumes that demand may worsen. The higher end of its guidance depends on a few large deals, which the company expects to close in Q1FY26.

    HCL Tech reported a total contract value (TCV) of $3 billion in new deals during Q4. This includes a major deal in the engineering and R&D segment from a US-based company, focused on AI chips and smart vehicles. MD & CEO, C. Vijayakumar, said, “AI-driven efficiency will lead to clients choosing fewer vendors. While this could put pressure on pricing, we are gaining a larger share of business — 95% of contract renewals came with additional work for us.”

    However, Vijayakumar noted that the impact of tariffs will hit the manufacturing and consumer sectors first, and then spread more widely after about a quarter. Tariffs and de-globalization could increase costs for clients by making hardware, components, and cross-border operations more expensive. As a result, clients may cut IT budgets, delay major projects, or renegotiate existing contracts—shifting toward smaller or short-term contracts. This could impact revenue growth for Indian IT firms.

    Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on HCL Tech with a Rs 1,800 target price, implying an upside of 14.1%. The brokerage believes HCL Tech’s guidance is encouraging, as it puts to rest concerns of a weak FY26. At the upper end of the guidance, HCL Tech is expected to outperform both TCS and Infosys. The brokerage expects an 18.5% EBIT margin in FY26, with further recovery likely in FY27 as growth improves.

    3. HDFC Bank:

    This bank surged to its all-time high of Rs 1,950.7 per share on April 21 as its net profit grew 6.7% YoY to Rs 17,616.1 crore in Q4FY25, helped by higher income and lower provisions. However, revenue declined 8.4% YoY to Rs 77,460 crore due to lower contribution from the treasury segment. It features in a screener of stocks with decreasing provisions.

    The company’s revenue and net profit beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively. Its net interest income rose 10.3% YoY to Rs 32,100 crore, helped by a growth in loan advances in the rural and commercial & rural banking (CRB) segments. 

    Net interest margin (NIM) expanded by 10 bps YoY to 3.5%, led by the bank’s focus on retail deposits and a rise in current account savings account (CASA) deposits. However, the bank's asset quality deteriorated slightly, as its gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) rose by nine basis points (bps) and 10 bps YoY, respectively, during the quarter. 

    The firm’s loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) improved by 790 bps YoY to 96.5% in FY25, helped by deposit growth (14.1% YoY) outpacing credit growth (5.4% YoY). The bank’s LDR surged to 110% after the demerger of HDFC with HDFC Bank in July 2023, compared to 86-87% pre-merger. 

    The management plans to bring the LDR down to pre-merger levels by focusing on increasing deposits compared to loans. Speaking on the bank’s LDR, its Chief Financial Officer, Srinivasan Vaidyanathan, said, “We do expect LDR to fall below the 90% mark in FY27-29. We plan on getting the right kind of deposits at the right price to keep that leadership position and gain market share and deposits.

    Post results, Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on HDFC Bank with a higher target price of Rs 2,250 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 17.1%. The brokerage believes that, with the CD below 100% and the trajectory in line with the bank’s intention to bring it down to pre-merger levels over the medium term, credit growth will improve in FY26 and mirror systemic credit growth.

    4.Waaree Energies:

    Thissolar panel manufacturer surged 15% on April 23 following the announcement of itsQ4FY25 results. Waaree Energies’ net profit grew 34.1% YoY to Rs 618.9 crore, beatingForecaster estimates by 24.7% and revenue increased 36.4% YoY to Rs 4,003.9 crore, driven by a 52.6% YoY surge in production volume of solar modules during the quarter. 

    Waaree Energies is aleading solar manufacturer in India, with a manufacturing capacity of approximately 15 GW, making it the largest in the country. The company has also commissioned a 5.4 GW cell manufacturing facility in Gujarat during FY25, which is also the largest in India.

    In Q4FY25, the companyreported a 1.2X YoY increase in EBITDA, reaching Rs 1,059.6 crore. Management attributed this growth to a sharper decline in raw material prices compared to solar panel prices. Amit Pelkar, CEO of the company,said, “We are confident of achieving our EBITDA guidance for 2026, which is between 5,500 and 6,000 crore.”

    As of March 25, the companyholds an order book worth approximately Rs 47,000 crore, which includes around 25 GW of solar modules and 3.2 GW of engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects. The orders are spread across both domestic and international markets, with about 46% from India and 54% from overseas. A large share of international orders comes from the US.

    The company plans to add 4.8 GW of additional module manufacturing capacity by FY27. In addition, a fully integrated 6 GW facility for ingots, wafers, cells, and modules is scheduled for completion by FY27, with a planned capital expenditure of Rs 9,000 crore.

    The US hasimposed tariffs of up to 3,521% on solar panel imports from Southeast Asian countries, primarily targeting Chinese companies that manufacture there. This affects more than 75% of the US solar module supply, opening the doors for other suppliers to fill the gap. Waaree Energies plans to take advantage of the situation by doubling its Texas manufacturing capacity to 3.2 GW. 

    Jefferies downgraded the stock to ‘Underperform’ even after strong results, pointing to expensive valuations, a shrinking overseas order book, high module inventory in the US, and potential demand slowdown from FY27 amid policy uncertainties.

    5. Just Dial:

    This internet software & services company rose by 6.7% after it announced its Q4FY25 & full year results on April 21. The company’s Q4FY25 net profit rose by 36.2% YoY to Rs 157.6 crore due to lower finance costs and employee benefit expenses. Revenue for the quarter rose by 10% YoY to Rs 397.9 crore on the back of 11.8% YoY rise in Total Traffic (Unique Visitors). The stock appears in a screener for undervalued growth stocks.

    The company beat Trendlyne’s forecaster, Q4FY25 net profit estimate by 17.7%. However, it missed the revenue estimate by 1.2% due to flat growth in paid campaigns. Notably, the company’s employee headcount increased by 2.6% QoQ, mostly on account of hiring in tele-marketing staff and feet-on-street staff (for cold calling).

    Abhishek Bansal, CFO of Just Dial, said, “We had aimed for around 25% margins by year-end but ended up exceeding 29%. This year, we're comfortable with our current margin levels, but our focus will be on accelerating top-line growth. Our advertising budget will remain to be around 2.5% to 3% of the top line at this point of time.”

    Citing weaker recent revenue growth and collections, JM Financial has projected Just Dial's EBITDA margin estimates to grow by 10-90bps for FY26-27, and expects stable margins amid limited revenue growth and flat advertising spend. Nevertheless, JM Financial forecasts Just Dial's core PAT to roughly double to Rs 260 crore by FY27.

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Hold’ rating on Just Dial. The brokerage notes that visibility on potential cash distribution to shareholders and future growth in paid campaign conversions will turn out to be positives for the company. The company has beaten the target price of Rs 968 given by the brokerage.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    24 Apr 2025

    Chart of the week: Top performing PSE stocks over the past 5 years

    By Abdullah Shah

    Over the past five years, Indian Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) delivered high growth, with the Nifty PSE index surging 313.6%. Growth was especially strong in  sectors that aligned well with national priorities, like defence production, renewable energy expansion, and infrastructure expansion.  

    Tapan Doshi, founder of Thoughtful Investors Hub (TIH), notes, "In the last two years, PSU stocks have gone up due to strong performance, government reforms, and a significant capital expenditure push from the government. Stocks from the railways, power utilities, power financiers, defense, shipbuilding, and public sector banks have seen rerating during this period,"

    In this edition of chart of the week, we take a look at the five-year returns and price trends of the Nifty PSE index constituents from 2020 to 2025. 

    2020 was a bad year for Nifty PSE, weighed down by sluggish government spending and muted demand during the nationwide lockdown. However, by 2023, the index had staged a strong comeback (+79.9%), posting its best performance since 2007, powered by a revival in government capex and a surge in order inflows.

    Speaking on the performance of PSEs, Prime Minister Narendra Modi noted, “PSU shares at a time were synonymous with falling prices. But now, in the stock market, their value is rising several times.”

    However, the sector is facing pressure in 2025 due to increased global market volatility, import tariffs imposed by the US and a reduction in government capex in FY26.  Companies like Hindustan Aeronautics and Rail Vikas Nigam have also faced issues with order execution delays. 

    When a 5-year time frame is considered, defence stocks such as Hindustan Aeronautics and Bharat Electronics emerge as the top performers, fueled by higher government capex in the sector and a strong push for domestic manufacturing. 

    Close behind are government-backed railway stocks (Rail Vikas Nigam and Indian Railway Finance Corp), which gained momentum with rising capex and order wins. 

    Energy and power finance stocks (Bharat Heavy Electricals, Power Finance Corp and REC) also saw notable gains, supported by the Centre’s focus on expanding the share of renewable energy and meeting growing power demand.

    'Make in India' push propels defence stocks to new highs

    Defence stocks like Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) and Bharat Electronics (BEL) have given multibagger returns of more than 1,000% in the last five years. Fueling this rally is the Centre’s aggressive push for indigenous defence manufacturing under the ‘Make in India’ initiative. The government has increased its defence capex from Rs 1.2 lakh crore in FY21 to Rs 3.7 lakh crore in FY26. 

    HAL’s stock price surged 1,468.4% in the past five years, with the largest jumps coming in 2022 (109.6%) and 2023 (121.3%). This aerospace & defence stock’s order book stands at Rs 1.3 lakh crore in 9MFY25, 151.6% higher than its order book in FY20. It secured orders worth Rs 55,800 crore during 9MFY25, including contracts for AL 31 FP Engines, SU-30 MKI aircraft, repair and overhaul (ROH) spares, and development (D&D) services.

    BEL’s stock price jumped 1,099% over the past five years, with the government’s focus on self-reliance in defence manufacturing. The aerospace & defence company delivered annual returns ranging from 40% to 85% during 2021-24, led by a 36.8% rise in its order book to Rs 71,100 crore from FY20 to 9MFY25.

    Both HAL and BEL’s stock prices have shown resilience amid recent market volatility, and are slightly up in 2025.

    Railway PSEs surge due to higher government spending

    Rail Vikas Nigam (RNVL) has shown a strong stock performance over the past five years, surging 2,011.9%. The Indian government’s initiatives, like railway electrification and the introduction of the Vande Bharat train, contributed to this growth.? 

    The construction & engineering company’s stock price rose the most in 2023 (166.1%) and 2024 (133.1%), helping to emerge as a multibagger in two straight years. 

    The government increased railway capex from Rs 1.6 lakh crore in FY21 to Rs 2.7 lakh crore in FY26, marking a sharp increase in government orders. RVNL’s order book expanded by 76% from Rs 55,000 crore in FY22 to Rs 96,780 crore in 9MFY25. 

    However, its stock price is down 11.6% in 2025 due to poor market conditions triggered by the US imposing import tariffs. Investors are also concerned about the company’s order execution, given the size of the order book, which is 4.8x of its trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue of Rs 21,303.2 crore.

    Indian Railway Finance Corp (IRFC) also benefited from increased government spending in the railways segment, surging by 408.9% over the past five years. This financial institution is the financing arm of Indian Railways, financing approximately 80% of the Indian Railways’ projects. The company’s assets under management (AUM) have jumped 6.5x, from Rs 70,471 crore in FY20 to Rs 4.6 lakh crore in FY24. 

    Government orders boost power and finance PSEs

    Bharat Heavy Electricals’ (BHEL’s) stock has jumped 952.2% over the past five years, owing to its expansion into the renewable energy and defence segments. However, this heavy electrical equipment company’s price declined by 17.4% in 2020 due to higher demand for renewable energy sources and the company’s reliance on thermal energy projects. 

    BHEL recovered to give strong returns of 64.7% and 144.3%, respectively, in 2021 and 2023, with a modest 33.9% rise in 2022. Its order book expanded by 81.8% from Rs 1.1 lakh crore in FY20 to Rs 2 lakh crore in 9MFY25. This includes orders for solar and hydro power projects, a contract for Vande Bharat trains, and gun mounts for the Indian Navy. 

    REC and Power Finance Corp’s (PFC’s) saw their stock prices soar 542.1% and 526.3%, respectively, over the last five years. The government’s focus on alternative energy production and higher spending on infrastructure development drove share price gains. These financial institutions provide financial assistance to the power, logistics and infrastructure sectors.

    The companies’ shares fell in 2020 due to a halt in projects caused by the COVID-19 lockdown. However, REC and PFC recovered in the following years as their disbursements nearly doubled to Rs 1.6 lakh crore and Rs 1.3 lakh crore, respectively, in FY24, compared to Rs 82,140.8 crore and Rs 67,997, respectively, in FY20.

    Oil India has risen by 604.7% over the past five years, despite the exploration & production company declining by 30% in 2020 after the lockdown lowered oil demand, and caused crude oil prices to fall to $18.8 per barrel. However, the stock recovered in the following years, as the lockdown was lifted and oil prices rebounded. Oil India delivered returns of more than 70% in 2021, 2023 and 2024. The company also secured nine exploration blocks under the Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP) Round IX, expanding its exploration footprint by over 51,000 sq km.

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    The Baseline
    23 Apr 2025
    Knock knock: India has an opportunity amid US policy chaos | Screener: Rising stocks that are FII faves

    Knock knock: India has an opportunity amid US policy chaos | Screener: Rising stocks that are FII faves

    "They have been ripping us off", is what US President Trump said about the rest of the world, when he imposed his trade tariffs on April 2. "Our country won't be laughed at anymore."

    Trump, a master of grievance and complaint, was talking about the world's richest country, which holds a privileged status in the global finance system - since the US dollar is the international reserve currency.

    Over the next few weeks, Trump quickly learned what it meant for the US to be treated like just another country. His tariffs triggered a market meltdown that has threatened the unique status of the US as the investment destination of choice. The dollar fell, and US bonds weakened, increasing the government's borrowing costs. Stocks tanked. Markets only recovered when Trump backed off most of his tariffs - and then fell again last week when he threatened to fire Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve. 

    Foreign investors own about 30% of American investments, which comes to $19 trillion of US equities, and $7 trillion of Treasuries. With his arbitrary policy decisions -- where he posts his plans on social media, and not even his advisers seem to know what is coming next -- Trump threatens the "safe haven" reputation the US has with foreign investors, which the country spent over half a century nurturing.  

    That old line - in times of crisis comes opportunity - is valid here. While an unpredictable administration hits US growth (Citigroup Global Economist Robert Sockin expectstariffs could drive US GDP growth to zero this year), investors and companies are in search of alternatives.  The IMF now sees China and India  contributing a bigger share of global growth, and it has revised the contribution from the US downward.

    In this week's Analyticks:

    Knock, knock: As trust in US fades, India has an opportunity

    Screener: Stocks outperforming the benchmark index, with FIIs buying stakes in Q4FY25


    Investors look beyond the US, as the Trump effect grips global markets

    In the past three months, US stocks have taken the biggest beating while Indian and Chinese indices rose. The US Mag7, the stars of 2024, plunged.

    Meanwhile, FIIs, which had pulled large amounts out of India in recent months, have recently reversed course, buying $2 billion worth of Indian equities in just the past four sessions. This is being driven by investors diversifying their holdings amid US volatility, and Trump favouring India as among the first countries it wants a trade deal with, even as it freezes China out with 145% tariffs.  

    There are of course, challenges for India in dealing with an unpredictable Trump administration. Still, India shouldn't ignore it when someone  knocks so hard on the door of opportunity, even if the person knocking is a bit erratic.

    The Indian opportunity amid the trade chaos

    India has a lot of catching up to do when it comes to China. China's GDP of $18.5 trillion is 4X India’s, and it has 11% of global trade, to India’s 2.7%. 

    But China's weakening relationship with the US, and the UK and EU searching for new trading partners as the Trump tariffs kick in, give India a chance to sign multiple deals, and pivot from its domestic market to the world. The potential win from such a strategy shift is huge. 

    China has long targeted the $100 trillion global economy for growth while India relies on its $4 trillion domestic market. As a result, India's manufacturing exports have been weak, and local private investment has not taken off.

    India's anxiety around opening up its economy has hurt it considerably for decades. In 2019, it refused to join the RCEP trade agreement — a free trade agreement that includes China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and South East Asia —citing concerns about excessive Chinese imports.  The Peterson Institute projected at the time, that India’s yearly income would increase by $60 billion — around 1.1 percentage points in real GDP gains by 2030 — if it joined the agreement. It has also dragged its feet on FTAs with UK and Europe, because of its reluctance to lower tariffs on its domestic market.

    China's focus on exports has led it to automate its manufacturing plants at high speed, pushing prices even lower. China's new robot powered factories — called 'dark factories' because robots don't need electric lights to work — run 24/7, seven days a week. The focus on world markets has helped China become competitive beyond toys and consumer goods. It has made it hard to beat in cars, chips, and increasingly, AI and robot tech. 

    The risks India faces in being left behind, have never been higher. The US tariff war is a chance for us to fix old, self-damaging habits.  Trump is not incorrect in calling India a "tariff king". Consider the auto sector, a source of his anger. The tariffs India places on imported automobiles go as high as 110%, making most imported vehicles unaffordable to Indians. It is why India imports only 15,000 cars a year, even as it sold 4.3 million passenger vehicles last year.

    Our over-focus on protecting our domestic market has kept us excessively uncompetitive, favouring Indian industrialists over Indian consumers. Our tariff wall suggests a paranoia about our ability to compete with the world, even as we constrain our startups and SMEs with tough local rules. A more relaxed approach would allow India to create an environment similar to what drove China's export growth - by giving consumers more choice, manufacturers more import flexibility, and domestic industries more competition.

    We need to look beyond our local backyard. Trump has now spotlit India as a potentially major trading partner. We should leverage this opportunity amid the chaos to rapidly sign trade deals with the US, UK and Europe. 


    Screener: Stocks outperforming the benchmark index, with FIIs buying stakes in Q4FY25

    FIIs increase stakes in fertilizers and banking stocks

    As the Q4FY25 earnings season gets underway, we take a look at stocks where foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are increasing their holdings. These stocks have strong performance and institutional confidence, despite broader market uncertainty. This screener shows stocks outperforming the Nifty 50 index, where FIIs are buying stakes QoQ in Q4FY25.

    The screener shows stocks from the fertilizers, finance, pharmaceuticals, housing finance, and electric utilities industries. Major companies that show up in the screener are Aptus Value Housing Finance India, AWL Agri Business, Coromandel International, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, Vijaya Diagnostic Centre, Poonawalla Fincorp, UPL and Credit Access Grameen.

    Aptus Value Housing Finance’s FII holding increased 5.9 percentage points QoQ in Q4FY25. This housing finance company is also up 16.7% over the past quarter. Malabar Investment was the largest buyer of a 6% stake in the firm through its funds, Malabar India Fund and Malabar Select Fund. The Forecaster expects its revenue to grow 22.5% YoY in Q4FY25. The company is set to announce its Q4 results on May 1.

    Vijaya Diagnostic Centre also shows up in the screener after FIIs increased their holding by 180 bps QoQ to 19.4% in Q4FY25. The healthcare services provider has risen 8.4% over the past quarter. The most notable buyer of the stock was The Prudential Assurance Company, buying a 1.1% stake. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue to grow by 16.5% YoY in Q4FY25, driven by higher volumes from the radiology and pathology segments.

    You can find more screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    22 Apr 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 22, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 22, 2025

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Indian Hotels Company:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this hotel company with a target price of Rs 950, indicating an upside potential of 13.9%. Analysts Sumant Kumar and Meet Jain highlight that the room addition through management contracts grew 18% CAGR from FY19-24, compared to just 2% for owned hotels.

    The analysts note that Ginger Hotels, run by its subsidiary Roots Corp, has delivered 13% revenue CAGR and 55% EBITDA CAGR over the same period. By FY27, the company plans to add 874 new rooms under the Ginger brand. Overall, Indian Hotels plans to add nearly 8,000 rooms by FY27, with over 85% of these through management contracts. 

    The company is focusing on its premium verticals like The Chambers and Taj SATS, whose contribution to total revenue is projected to rise to 12-14% by FY30 from the current 2%. The company is also increasing its stake in its international and domestic subsidiaries like PIEM Hotels, International Hotel Operating Company BV (IHOCO BV), and Taj Cape Town to gain better control and align them with its growth plan. Kumar and Jain expect the company to clock a CAGR of 18% in revenue, 24% in EBITDA, and 26% in net profit over FY25-27.

    2. Zydus Lifesciences:

    Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 975, an upside of 14.3%. In March, Zydus acquired an 85.6% stake in France-based Amplitude Surgical for Rs 2,430 crore, marking its entry into the med-tech sector with a focus on hip implants. Analysts believe this move will open up new growth opportunities and support the company’s long-term prospects. They also highlight Zydus expanding its nephrology and cardiology segments through organic and inorganic moves.

    In Q3FY25, the company’s revenue grew 17% YoY to Rs 5,269 crore, driven by strong performance in its pharmaceuticals and consumer products segments. EBITDA margin improved by 180 bps to 26.3%. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company’s net profit to rise by 10.7% YoY in Q4FY25, with revenue growth of 17.3%.

    During the December quarter, the company filed 10 abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) and received approval for three new products. Analysts project its revenue to grow at a 4.8% CAGR over FY25-27.

    3. HDFC Life Insurance:

    KR Choksey reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this life insurance firm with a target price of Rs 831, indicating a potential upside of 16%. In Q4FY25, the company’s gross written premium (GWP) grew by 14.8% YoY to over Rs 24,000 crore, thanks to stronger individual and group businesses. The value of new business (VNB) grew by 11.6%, driven by strong growth in annualised premium equivalent (APE or the total annual premium from new policies sold).

    Analyst Ishank Gupta notes that HDFC Life outperformed both the private sector and the overall insurance sector in terms of APE growth, thanks to strong sales efforts. The company anticipates continued growth in coverage plans, with increasing demand for life insurance products in Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 cities.

    Gupta highlighted that HDFC Life expects range-bound margins in the short term due to ongoing investments in sales and technology. However, long-term margins are expected to improve with the success of its technology upgrades under its Project Inspire initiative.

    4. Vishal Mega Mart:

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this department store chain with a target price of Rs 140, indicating an upside potential of 24.3%. Analysts Manoj Menon, Dhiraj Mistry and others highlight the company’s private label strategy in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) segment sets it apart from its competitors and improves footfall. The FMCG segment contributes about 27% of total revenue. 

    The company focuses on selling large pack sizes in its FMCG range, targeting monthly consumption needs of middle-class families. This value-for-money approach has increased store footfalls and helped attract new customers to other categories like general merchandise and apparel. The model replicates to some extent, the highly successful business model of Costco in the US.

    The analysts note that the V-Mart’s private label food products are made by reputed manufacturers, to maintain quality and ensure repeat purchases. As a result, the private label revenue contribution in FMCG has reached nearly 40%, offering better margins compared to its peers. While larger players like DMart and Reliance Retail benefit from scale, V-Mart stands out for its focus on private labels, allowing it to offer better value in a price-sensitive market. 

    5. Kansai Nerolac Paints:

    Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this paint company with a target price of Rs 335. This indicates an upside potential of 24.1%. Analyst Mrunmayee Jogalekar notes that Kansai Nerolac Paints (KNP) holds the top position in India’s automotive and powder coatings market, and the third position in the decorative and general industrial segments.

    The management aims to position KNP as the second-largest player in the Indian paint industry by 2030. The company targets a 10% growth in annual revenue and an EBITDA margin of 18% compared to the current level of 14% in FY24. KNP plans to strengthen its presence in the general industrial and high-performance coatings segments.

    Jogalekar expects KNP’s performance to improve from H2CY25, supported by expectations of a favorable monsoon and reduced competitive pressures. He estimates KNP's revenue to grow at a 9.5% CAGR and net profit to grow at a 15% CAGR over FY25- 27.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    17 Apr 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 17, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 17, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1.Delhivery:

    This transport and logistics company rose by over 15.5% in the past week after announcing the acquisition of Ecom Express for over Rs 1,400 crore. Ecom is the second-largest player in the business-to-consumer (B2C) third-party logistics space after Delhivery. Together, the two companies would hold around 55–60% of the market share.

    The acquisition was a fire sale by Ecom Express. Major clients like Meesho, Reliance, and Flipkart had reportedly cut back or stopped using Ecom’s services. This loss of big customers made it harder for Ecom to keep up with its costs. The company sold its business at nearly half the valuation it was looking at during its now-shelved IPO. 

    Analysts believe Ecom's acquisition will help Delhivery offset the impact of clients like Meesho choosing to insource. Delhivery may also benefit from significant cost savings over the next 12-18 months by using the same facilities, like sorting hubs and delivery centers. However, some analysts do not expect the deal to boost earnings in the near term, as Ecom posted a net loss of Rs 2,600 crore in FY24, likely higher in FY25.

    During the December quarter, the express parcel segment accounted for 63% of the company’s total revenue, while the partial truckload (PTL) segment made up 19%. The express parcel segment’s EBITDA margin dropped by 500 bps to 15.6%, due to higher vehicle rental costs. Sahil Barua, MD & CEO, expects this margin to stabilize at 17-20% in the coming quarters, helped by a shift to locked-in vehicle rental rates and better volumes, which will improve cost efficiency.

    He said, “We are targeting a 25-30% volume growth in the PTL segment and expect margin improvement through better utilization in FY26.” Delhivery plans to open 50 dark stores (local warehouses for online orders) in the top eight cities and expects full-year revenue of Rs 80-100 crore from this initiative.

    Emkay has given a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 400. This indicates an upside of 42.3%. The brokerage expects smooth post-acquisition sales retention and network integration. Emkay projects a revenue growth of 16.3% and a net profit growth of 87.5% annually over FY25-27.

    2. Kaynes Technology India:

    This IoT solution provider for electronic components in the consumer durables sector rose 27% over the past week, as the US temporarily exempted tariffs on the consumer electronics industry. Rising tensions between the US and China is also expected to boost orders for Indian electronics manufacturers.

    Apple's plan to manufacture more iPhones in India has raised expectations of new contracts for manufacturing components and assembly work, adding to Kayne’s positive outlook. 

    Kaynes Technology designs and builds electronics for the automotive, industrial, aerospace, and consumer electronics industries. It plans to enter the manufacturing and assembly of high-density printed circuit boards (PCBs).

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects the company’s revenue to grow by 51.4% YoY to Rs 1,009.8 crore in Q4FY25 and net profit by 42.4% YoY to Rs 115.8 crore.

    However, the company lowered its FY25 revenue target to Rs 2,800 crore from Rs 3,000 crore due to delays in executing Rs 100 crore worth of industrial orders. For FY26, it aims to generate Rs 4,500 crore in revenue with margins above 15%.

    Kaynes Technology is setting up a Rs 3,300 crore semiconductor facility in Gujarat under the India Semiconductor Mission. The investment follows a public-private partnership model, with the Central Government chipping in with 50%, the Gujarat Government 20%, and Kaynes Technology 30%. The plant will have a capacity of 6.3 million chips per day, with pilot production scheduled for June 2025.

    Ramesh Kunhikannan, MD of Kaynes Technology, said, “We expect an annual capex of Rs 200–300 crore in the Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) business to support additional volumes in FY26 and FY27.” He added that exports could contribute 20–25% of revenue, up from the current 10%, and the railway business may see a significant resurgence through the Kavach program.

    Motilal Oswal reiterates a “Buy” rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 6,500. The brokerage notes that the company holds a strong revenue growth momentum, supported by a healthy order book and steady order inflows. It projects a revenue CAGR of 56% and a PAT CAGR of 68% for FY25–27.

    3. Olectra Greentech:

    Thiselectric bus manufacturer has surged 13.9% over the past week, driven by a series of positive developments. On April 11, the company rose 5.8% aftersecuring an order worth Rs 424 crore from the Himachal Road Transport Corporation (HRTC) to supply 297 Electric Buses. 

    On April 16, it gained 4.4% following thenews that the Indian government is set to launch a tender for the procurement of 10,000 electric buses under the PM E-Drive scheme. Convergence Energy Services (CESL) is expected to issue tenders next month for nine cities, with a Rs 3,000 crore subsidy.

    Olectra Greentech’sQ3FY25 revenue rose 50.2% YoY to Rs 517.6 crore, driven by the sale of more buses and the introduction of higher-priced models. Trendlyne’sForecaster projects the company's revenue to grow 62.7% YoY and its net profit to surge 1.1X YoY in FY25 on the back of a strong order book.

    The company’s net order book for electric busesstands at 10,224 units. Olectra Greentech aims to deliver around 2,500 buses in FY26 and is developing a new Greenfield electric vehicle manufacturing facility to meet the increasing demand.

    The new facility is expected to ramp up significantly in the second half of FY26. B. Sharat Chandra, Chief Financial Officer,said, “We have built about 200 units per month, which we are ramping up to about 5,000 units per annum soon. Over a period of one year, we want to ramp up to about 10,000 units.” The second phase of construction, which includes adding robots for automation, is on track and should be finished in the next 3 to 4 months. However, the automation process will take another 6 months to complete.

    Geojit BNP Paribasdowngrades the stock to ‘Accumulate’ rating, citing delays in the execution rate and a slow ramp-up in the order book for the year. The brokerage has also reduced its target price to Rs 1,485 from Rs 2,086.

    4. Transformers & Rectifiers (India):

    This heavy electrical equipment manufacturing company rose by 2.2% in the past week. It announced its Q4FY25 & full year results on April 8. The company’s Q4FY25 net profit jumped 135.8% YoY to Rs 94.2 crore, driven by a strong order book, while revenue rose 32.9%. The company’s management highlighted a sharp rise in order enquiries worth $3 billion (~Rs 25,700.7 crore) in FY25, and reported its highest-ever production at 29,118 MVAs, up from 16,425 MVAs in FY24. The stock also appears in a screener for strong momentum stocks.

    The company missed Trendlyne’s forecaster Q4 revenue estimate by 6.1%, impacted by high exposure to State Electricity Boards (SEBs) which constitute a major chunk of its revenue and are known for late payments. It has also been due to volatility in copper and steel prices amid global trade tensions.

    Chanchal Rajora, CFO at TARIL, said, “Looking ahead at FY26, we are entering the year with a robust unexecuted order book of Rs 5,132 crore and a well-diversified pipeline of inquiries from both domestic and international markets. We are committed to our long-term goal of reaching $1 billion(~Rs 8,555.9 crore) in revenue within the next 3 financial years, and we believe that we are well on track to achieve this vision.”

    Mr. Rajora added, “In the next 15 months, the company will be spending Rs 550 crore on capex expansions to strengthen its organic as well as backward integration growth, with the target to become 100% backward integrated.” During the year, the company has also started a capacity expansion of 22,000 MVA at its Moraiya facilities, which is expected to be completed by February 2026.”

    Nuvama Institutional Equities highlights that the current industry capacity stands at approximately 0.3 million MVA, while demand is around 0.4 million MVA and is projected to reach 0.7 million MVA by FY29. The brokerage highlights strong domestic and export demand amid tight supply for high-voltage transformer players, driving premium pricing. It sees a major market opportunity and maintains a 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 725.

    5. Poonawalla Fincorp (PFL):

    This non-banking financial company’s (NBFC’s) stock price rose 9.2% over the past week after it expanded its secured lending portfolio with the launch of its gold loan business. The company also plans to open 400 branches in FY26 to strengthen its presence in Tier 2 and 3 cities and foray into different loan segments.

    The company announced another expansion to provide loans to shopkeepers on April 8. This targets small retailers and kirana stores, and includes cash flow, inventory, and customer management services. PFL plans to set up 44 branches across the country.

    Speaking on the company’s expansion plans, its Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Arvind Kapil, said, “We have invested significantly over the last few months in rolling out multiple scalable lending businesses across the secured, unsecured and digital segments. These investments may have a four-quarter gestation period, resulting in low profitability due to high expenses.” 

    In Q3FY25, the company’s net profit declined by 92.9% YoY to Rs 18.7 crore due to higher expenses for new businesses and a higher share of secured loans with low margins. Poonawalla Fincorp reported a 42.2% YoY growth in assets under management (AUM) to Rs 35,550 crore in Q4FY25. 

    In its Q4FY25 results preview, KR Choksey expects Poonawalla Fincorp’s NII to rise 17.8% YoY, driven by strong AUM growth. However, the brokerage expects the lender’s net interest margin (NIM) to remain under pressure due to increasing borrowing costs and a shift in asset mix to lower margin loans. This is a dangerous game for a lender, considering the volatility of incomes for small businesses like kirana shops. It also estimates the firm’s net profit to decline 49.6% YoY during the quarter, caused by higher provisions against potential stress in the new businesses.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    16 Apr 2025
    Top five: Stocks that could outperform in upcoming results | Screener: Stocks with high durability scores, high target prices

    Top five: Stocks that could outperform in upcoming results | Screener: Stocks with high durability scores, high target prices

    By Tejas MD

    Does the tariff policy coming out of the US mean anything anymore? It seems pointless for markets to react to new announcements, since Trump could withdraw some tariffs in the morning and add new ones in the evening.

    Still, global equities got some breathing room after Trump hit pause on the latest round of tariffs. But don’t get too comfortable. US policy has become volatile, and dangers lurk around every corner.

    Fear gauges like the Nifty VIX and S&P 500 VIX have surged since Trump’s "liberation day." And now, with the Q4FY25 earnings season kicking off, there’s potential for more stock market turbulence. Morgan Stanley projects just 3% revenue growth for Nifty 50 companies—a 19-quarter low.

    The real question is: which companies will beat that trend?

    We have identified five stocks with the potential to beat both the overall index, and their industries. One company in the list has a fast-growing vertical that is defying the slowdown. Another has massive new international orders coming in, while a third has a reliable client that keeps on spending. They all have something unique about them.

    In this week’s Analyticks: 

    • Five stocks to watch this results season: Five companies that could deliver high growth 
    • Screener: Stocks rising in the past quarter, with high durability scores and at least 20% target price upsides

    The big winners: Five stocks expected to stand out in upcoming results

    Heading into the Q4FY25 results, we shortlisted five stocks from the Nifty 500 that are predicted to post high revenue and net profit growth YoY and QoQ in Q4FY25, according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. These companies have already set the bar high with strong results in the previous quarter.

    Five stocks across industries have strong revenue and profit forecasts

    All five stocks in the list—KEC International, Mastek, Larsen & Toubro, Endurance Tech, and Hindalco Industries—are from different sectors. While these stocks weakened in the past year due to the market downturn, they’ve outperformed the benchmark index over two years.

    Short-term laggards, long-term winners vs Nifty 50

    Due to the fall, Trendlyne’s Momentum scores for these companies range from neutral to weak. But high Durability and Valuation scores signal that these may be strong, undervalued picks. 

    All stocks in focus have good Durability scores with strong fundamentals

    T&D all the way: One segment becomes the star for KEC International

    Industrials player KEC has got a boost from the Centre's capex push. The big revenue driver here is the company’s transmission and distribution (T&D) segment. In Q3FY25, the T&D business grew 17% YoY, with new orders surging an impressive 119% to Rs 16,000 crore. This momentum is expected to continue in Q4FY25. 

    T&D and civil segment expected to improve KEC’s profitability

    Analysts expect T&D margins to improve in the coming quarters due to a higher mix of T&D orders (54%) in the order book, and strong T&D traction in both domestic and international markets. 

    Golden goose: Mastek eyes 50% growth in UK healthcare in FY26

    This software and services company generates 56% of its revenue from the UK, with a significant portion coming from government contracts, especially with the NHS (National Health Service).

    This is Mastek's golden goose, and has long been a growth driver for the GovTech-focused firm. In Q3FY25, UK revenue rose 13% YoY, helped by a rebound in UK’s overall healthcare spending.

    Mastek’s revenue to rise YoY for the tenth straight quarter

    Expectations for Q4 are positive, with revenue and net profit projected to grow YoY and QoQ. There is however, a word of caution. Recent news about cuts to NHS England’s administration, due to its merger with the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), led to high volatility in Mastek's share price. 

    However, the management is optimistic and is projecting 40-50% revenue growth in UK healthcare next year due to the government’s modernisation commitment, including increased funding and a 10-year health plan. 

    Going vroom: Endurance Tech rides EV momentum, with strong order wins and German expansion

    Automotive component manufacturer Endurance Technologies has operations in India, Italy and Germany. It supplies aluminum castings, suspensions, transmissions, braking, and battery management systems.

    Endurance Tech has been on a good streak. Strong order wins and good execution have led to rising revenue and net profit for the past nine quarters. This trend is expected to continue in Q4FY25. 

    Endurance Tech’s strong order execution to continue in Q4FY25 

    As of Dec'24, the company secured Rs 3,341 crore in new orders from India and €244 million from Europe. 84% of the latter is linked to EVs or hybrids. In India, the EV order backlog stands at Rs 960 crore, including orders from Bajaj Auto.

    The company is expanding its presence in Europe, which contributes to around 23% of the total revenue. In December 2024, Endurance Tech acquired a 60% stake in Stoferle, a German company, for € 37.7 million to strengthen its presence in Germany. However, Trump’s new tariffs have led several European automakers to cut forecasts, which could weigh on demand for Endurance Tech. 

    Super-sized orders. But can it deliver?: QatarEnergy deal powers L&T

    On March 26, this Nifty 50 giant won its largest-ever project—an eye-popping $4 billion order from QatarEnergy LNG. The company’s order book is on the rise. As of Q3FY25, it reached Rs 5.64 trillion, with 58% from domestic projects and the remaining 42% from international markets.

    The infrastructure projects segment continues to anchor growth, posting a 14.7% YoY revenue in Q3 and accounting for nearly half (49.5%) of total revenue in the quarter.

    Analysts expect revenue and profit to grow YoY and QoQ in Q4FY25, driven by strong execution, especially in the international order book.

    Strong order execution in the international segment to drive L&T's revenue

    Despite the surge in new orders, investors are concerned about the company’s ability to execute such a massive order backlog while maintaining profitability. While these large order wins sound impressive, they can sometimes be margin-dilutive. 

    Growth amid uncertainty: Capex-fueled growth for Hindalco, but tariffs cause jitters

    On April 1, this metals and mining company announced a $10 billion capex plan through FY29 to scale production at Hindalco and its US subsidiary Novelis significantly.

    The investment will fund capacity expansions across India's aluminium and copper operations, while Novelis aims to add approximately 800,000 tonnes of aluminium capacity globally by FY27. Following the investor day, brokerages including ICICI Securities, Anand Rathi, and Axis Direct reiterated their ‘Buy’ ratings, citing long-term growth potential.

    Hindalco’s Indian business to drive revenue growth in Q4FY25

    In Q3, the company’s aluminium upstream revenue rose 25% YoY, driven by higher average aluminium prices. Downstream aluminium revenue also increased 25% on the back of higher volumes. Analysts anticipate strong performance in Q4, led by strong growth in Indian operations.

    However, shares are down 9.4% in April, impacted by recent tariff-related announcements.

    Novelis, Hindalco’s US subsidiary, is largely insulated from tariffs due to its reliance on aluminium scrap, which isn’t tariffed. However, Hindalco's direct aluminium exports to the US are expected to decline due to the tariffs, which could affect profitability.


    Screener: Stocks rising in the past quarter with high durability scores and 20%+ Forecaster target price upsides

    Forecaster expects banking stocks to rise the most in the next year

    As the Q4 results season kicks off, we look at stocks with the highest upside potential over the next 12 months, according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. This screener shows stocks rising more than 5% in the past quarter with strong durability scores, and where Forecaster sees at least a 20% target price upside.

    The screener consists of stocks from the banking, housing finance, aerospace & defence, construction & engineering, and heavy electrical equipment industries. Major stocks that feature in the screener are NBCC (India), Adani Ports & SEZ, Transformers & Rectifiers (India), Balrampur Chini Mills, Indian Bank, Aadhar Housing, PNB Housing Finance, and Union Bank of India.

    NBCC (India) appears in the screener with the highest Forecaster target price upside of 31.4%. The stock has risen 7.1% over the last quarter, helped by multiple order wins and project sales. Analysts believe the construction and engineering company's consistent growth in infrastructure and residential real estate projects positions it well for long-term growth. They expect NBCC’s order book to expand on the back of continued public sector projects and increasing demand for urban development.

    Transformers & Rectifiers (India) also appears in the screener with a Forecaster target price upside of 25.8%. This heavy electrical equipment company’s stock price increased by 11% over the past quarter, driven by strong Q4FY25 results. Its revenue and net profit grew 33% YoY to Rs 683.4 crore and 135.8% YoY to Rs 94.2 crore during the quarter. Analysts at ICICI Direct are positive about the company due to a strong order book of Rs 5,132 crore and further bid prospects of Rs 22,000 crore. 

    You can find more screeners here.


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    The Baseline
    15 Apr 2025, 04:53PM

    Chart of the week: Capex surge puts order books of railway companies on the fast track

    By Omkar Chitnis

    The Indian railway sector is one of the largest railway networks in the world, and has become a focus of government investment. The centre’s push for long-overdue network expansion and modernization has created new growth opportunities for the sector. 

    In FY26, the Union Budget allocated Rs 2.62 lakh crore to Indian Railways – 22.7% of the total budget, and three times the Rs 0.93 lakh crore allocated in FY16. The goals were expanding freight capacity, modernising infrastructure, and improving safety.

    Is this a new golden age for railway stocks? The increased capex, and the government focus on better railway infrastructure has accelerated growth in railway projects, creating a ripple effect on railway-related stocks, which have seen strong order inflows. 

    The government’s investments in railway and metro projects have driven share price growth in key sectors. Wagon and coach manufacturers such as Titagarh Rail, Texmaco Rail, and Jupiter Wagons won orders for freight wagons, passenger coaches, and metro cars.

    Infrastructure providers like IRCON International and RVNL capitalized on electrification and station upgrade orders, while financing companies like IRFC supported the sector by funding railway projects and infrastructure development.

    Industry experts expect railways to remain a priority, as the government reduces logistics costs and increases freight share. Ashish Modani, Vice President at ICRA, said, “Roads and railways will be the government’s top priorities due to their critical role in lowering logistics costs. Over the years, the rail share in freight transportation has declined, and there’s a strong push to reverse this trend.”

    Despite great returns over 5 years, railway stocks have faced a downturn in 2025, primarily due to weak government spending and negative sentiment in global markets. Concerns over high valuations and delays in order execution have added to the uncertainty. 

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyze railway stocks and their growing order books over the past five years.

    Government spending fuels growth for wagon and coach makers

    In FY26, the government allocated Rs 57,693 crore for 200 Vande Bharat sleeper trains, 100 Amrit Bharat trains, 50 Namo Bharat rapid rail trains, and 17,500 non-AC coaches. These initiatives are creating opportunities for companies in the wagon and coach manufacturing sector.

    Titagarh Rail Systems, Jupiter Wagons, and Texmaco Rail & Engineering collectively control 70% of the Indian wagon manufacturing market. 

    Titagarh Rail Systems, a commercial vehicle industry player specializing in railway wagons, coaches, and metro trains, holds a 30% market share in freight wagon production. Its share price is up 2,100% in the past five years, driven by an order book growing at a CAGR of 62.1%. The company more or less relies on one client, the government – it receives nearly 99% of its orders from the Ministry of Defence and the Railways.

    Between FY19 and FY24, Titagarh’s revenue grew at a CAGR of 19.5%, reaching Rs 3,893 crore. Over the same period, it shifted from a Rs 28.5 crore loss to a profit of Rs 286 crore. 

    Jupiter Wagons generates 80% of its revenue from railway wagons. Its share price has risen  600% in the past five years. As of FY25, the order book stands at Rs 6,320 crore, with 50% coming from government orders. 

    In FY23, the company secured a large order of Rs 58,200 crore from the Ministry of Defence and Railways. Over the last five years, the company’s revenue grew at a CAGR of 76% to Rs 3,641 crore in FY24, and its net profit increased by 30% to Rs 333 crore during the same period. 

    Texmaco operates in freight wagons, rail, and electrical businesses, with a 20% market share in India’s wagon industry. It generates 84% of its revenue from wagons. Over the last five years, its share price has jumped 540%, and the order book has grown at a CAGR of  25.3% to Rs 7,878 crore in FY24. 

    The company derives 80% of its revenue from government projects. Revenue grew at a 13.5% CAGR to Rs 3,503 crore, while profit increased at an 8.4% CAGR to Rs 113 crore from FY19 to FY24.

    BEML manufactures commercial vehicles for mining and construction, along with rail coaches, metro cars, and components for the railway sector. It generates 37.4% of its revenue from rail and metro projects. Its share price is up 440% in the last five years. Over this period, revenue grew at a CAGR of 3.2%, reaching Rs 4,096 crore, while net profit grew at a CAGR of 34.8% to Rs 281.8 crore from FY19 to FY24.

    RVNL and IRCON ride Centre’s railway infra project wave

    The government is expanding railway infrastructure to reduce logistics costs, streamline transportation, and support trade and economic development. In the FY26 budget, the government allocated Rs 32,235 crore for new railway lines.

    RVNL, a Navratna PSU, specializes in railway infrastructure within the Construction & Engineering industry. RVNL’s shares have gained 1,790% over the last five years. The order book stood at Rs 97,000 crore at the end of the December quarter, 4.8 times its trailing 12-month revenue. The company derives 91.3% of its revenue from railway projects, with the rest from metro and national highway projects.

    Its revenue increased from Rs 14,776.26 crore in FY20 to Rs 23,074 crore in FY24, while net profit doubled from Rs 753.32 crore to Rs 1,574 crore over the same period. Government-backed initiatives like railway electrification and the introduction of the Vande Bharat train have driven RVNL’s growth.

    IRCON International operates in the construction and engineering industry, focusing on railways, highways, and bridges. Its shares have risen 250% over the past five years. As of Q3FY25, the company’s order book totals Rs 21,939 crore, with 78% of the revenue from railway projects and the rest from highways.

    IRFC and RailTel drive railway growth through funding and digitisation

    The government is modernizing Indian Railways through investments from financing institutions like IRFC. Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) is a Navratna PSU and a Non-Banking Financial Company. It serves as the financing arm of Indian Railways for large-scale expansion and upgrades. Since its listing in January 2021, IRFC’s share price has jumped 400% to Rs 124.

    IRFC’s asset under management (AUM) has risen 6.5 times, from Rs 70,471 crore in FY20 to Rs 4,64,641 crore in FY24. The NBFC finances around 80% of Indian Railways’ needs. 

    RailTel offers telecom and digital services to Indian Railways, focusing on projects like train communication systems, real-time monitoring, and station upgrades. Since its listing in 2021, the company's share price has increased by 145%, reaching Rs 292. Its order book grew from Rs 4,400 crore in FY21 to Rs 5,280 crore in FY25, with 28% linked to railway contracts.

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