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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    19 Apr 2024
     Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 19, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 19, 2024

    1. Ambuja Cement:

    This cement manufacturer is currently trading near its 52-week high of Rs 640.8. This comes after promoter Adani Group invested an additional Rs 8,339 crore in the company. With this, the Adani family’s total infusion into Ambuja Cement reaches Rs 20,000 crore, via preferential warrants. The group had acquired Switzerland-based Holcim’s 63.1% stake in Ambuja Cements in September 2022. It invested Rs 5,000 crore in October 2022 and Rs 6,661 crore in March 2024. Their stake in Ambuja Cements has now increased to 70.3%. 

    The additional capital from the Adani family will enable Ambuja Cements to fast-track its expansion plans. The cement manufacturer is looking to establish dominance in the cement space, and plans to double its production capacity to 140 million tonnes per annum by FY28. Ajay Kapur, CEO of Ambuja Cements said, "This infusion of funds enables various initiatives including debottlenecking capex, to enhance operational performance and bring efficiencies across resources, supply chain”. 

    Ambuja has expanded its capacity by 15% (9.9 MTPA) in the past year. The majority of capacity expansion was on account of the acquisition of Sanghi Industries (6.1 MTPA) and Asian Concrete & Cements (2.8 MTPA). In addition, Ambuja is doing a brownfield expansion of 12 MTPA. 

    Ambuja Cement’s net profit TTM stands at Rs 3,166.6 crore, up 63.4% YoY, and revenue TTM at 32,231.6 crore. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, the company’s net profit is expected to grow by 47.2% YoY in Q4FY24.  

    Earlier this week, Ambuja Cements signed an agreement to acquire My Home Group's 1.5 MTPA cement grinding unit in Tuticorin, Tamil Nadu for Rs 413.75 crore. This is expected to boost the company’s coastal footprint across southern markets of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 831 (factoring in the equity dilution post-warrant conversion). The brokerage is optimistic about the company’s growth prospects and believes it has the potential to outperform its peers in capacity growth.

    2. Phoenix Mills:

    This realty company achieved an all-time high of Rs 3,265 on Thursday after rising 18.5% in the past month. This rise came after the company reported its business update for Q4 & FY24, which showed a 22% YoY increase in retail consumption in FY24  to Rs 11,327 crore. Global brokerages reiterated their bullish stance on the stock post-update.

    Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its 'Overweight' rating, noting that same-store consumption has surpassed consensus expectations, indicating a revival in growth. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates a 36% YoY revenue growth to Rs 3,589 crore in FY24, with a 42.1% increase in EPS. According to the data released by the Ministry of Statistics, Indian households are spending less on food, and more on discretionary items. This justifies Phoenix’s growth, as 70% of its revenue comes from malls that deal in discretionary items.

    Phoenix Mills aims to expand its office portfolio by 5.1 million square feet near its existing malls in the next three years, boosting its operational office space to 7 million square feet by 2027, a significant increase from the current 2 million square feet.

    Managing Director, Shishir Shrivastava, noted the strong rebound in office space demand, nearing pre-pandemic levels in major cities like Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru, and Chennai, where the company intends to develop office spaces. He emphasized the high demand for quality office space, reflected in low vacancy rates and strong rental trends in grade-A buildings in these cities.

    The Hong Kong-based brokerage CLSA has maintained its outperform rating on the stock and increased its target price to Rs 3403 from the previous target of Rs 2825. This suggests a potential upside of 9% from the current levels.

    3. Ramkrishna Forgings:

    This industrial products manufacturer has risen by 11.9% in the past week after winning two orders. The firm bagged a Rs 270 crore order from the Bharat Heavy Electricals-Titagarh Rail Systems consortium for Vande Bharat train components. It also secured approval to supply powertrain components to the USA’s largest electric passenger vehicle producer.  The company appears in a screener for stocks outperforming the industry over a month.

    In the past week, the company announced a ~9% increase in production capacity to 2,29,150 tonnes per annum, with an investment of around Rs 54.6 crore to cater to the growing customer demand. 

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects Ramkrishna Forgings to report a 37% YoY growth in net profit in FY24 and a revenue increase of 10.3% YoY. Despite what the management calls challenging business conditions, they expect order growth and better capacity utilization (currently at 95.6%). They also estimate a 15-20% growth in volume over the medium term, supported by new client additions. The company has guided for a turnover of Rs 5,600-6,075 crore annually by FY26. 

    “Our ongoing restructuring with arms like ACIL, JMT, MultiTech, and Mal Metalliks will streamline our approach and provide cross-selling opportunities to marquee clientele," says Managing Director Naresh Jalan. 

    Ramkrishna Forgings is in diversification mode, looking to enhance its global presence, expand into non-auto products and electric vehicles. The company has expanded its international customer base and grown its export mix from 30.1% in FY19 to 41.5% in 9MFY24. The approval to supply components for electric vehicles enables its entry into the international electric passenger vehicle segment. The firm’s acquisition of JMT Auto will enhance revenue potential in the oil & gas segment, with an expected turnover of Rs 400-500 crore from JMT Auto in FY26. 

    The company’s acquisition of Multitech Auto is also projected to result in an EBITDA growth of 18% by FY26. The firm has also planned the acquisition of ACIL to extend its reach into the tractors and passenger vehicles segment.

    Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ call on Ramkrishna Forgings on the back of its inorganic growth plan, diversification strategies, and focus on high operating margins.

    4. Angel One: 

    This capital markets stock declined 12.6% in two sessions after opening in the green on Thursday after the company posted its Q4FY24 results. The stock fell due to its EBITDA margin contracting by 7.7 percentage points YoY to 39% during the quarter. The company spent more on client acquisition and technological upgrades to fend off competition from online brokers such as Zerodha, Groww and Upstox.

    Angel One’s net profit increased by 27.4% YoY to Rs 339.9 crore, while revenue rose by 64.4% YoY to Rs 1,357.3 crore on the back of increasing gross client acquisition and average daily turnover (ADTO). Its net profit and revenue beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 13.9% and 48.6%. It appears in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue QoQ for the past three quarters.

    In the company’s business update for Q4FY24, its overall average daily turnover (ADTO) improved by 139.9% YoY to Rs 44.3 lakh crore. Its client base also increased by 61.5% YoY to 2.2 crore, helped by a 123.7% growth in client acquisition. The company’s average daily turnover (ADTO) in the futures & options (F&O) segment also grew by 141.5% YoY. Despite the rise in ADTO, the company’s overall and FnO market share declined 470 bps and 300 bps YoY, respectively, due to increasing competition.

    Speaking on the company’s results, its Chairman and Managing Director, Dinesh Thakkar, said, “Our digital outreach has enabled us to gain clients from tier 1 and 2 cities. We are not yet seeing price pressures or product fatigue in the space, and there are still opportunities for growth. For example, in the cash segment we are among the few players who are not charging customers.”

    Post results, Motilal Oswal retains its ‘Buy’ rating on Angel One with an upgraded target price of Rs 4,200 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 56%. The brokerage believes that the company is well positioned to grow business across client acquisition, orders and MTF book due to its Rs 1,500 crore fundraising. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 20.6% over FY24-26.

    5. Bajaj Auto:

    This 2&3 wheelers manufacturer’s stock declined by 2.4% on Friday after the company posted its Q4FY24 results on Thursday. The firm beat the Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimates for Q4FY24 for revenue by 0.9%, however missed the net profit estimate by 2.6%. For Q4FY24 the company’s net profit rose by 17.9% YoY to Rs 2,011.4 crore, while its revenue rose by 29.9% YoY on the back of 29.1% rise in the automotive segment revenue. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with low debt.

    In Q4FY24 the company reported a 25.5% YoY increase in its total vehicle sales to 3.7 lakh units. The 2-wheeler domestic sales rose by 20% YoY in Q4 to 1.8 lakh units. The company emerged as the largest 125 cc+ player in FY24 where the growth rate was 8X the rest of the industry. In the commercial vehicle segment the company came close to 80% market share for the first time in FY24.

    Rakesh Sharma, Executive Director, said: “We are looking for double-digit volume growth in FY25 if the industry grows at 7-8%. The export business environment remained challenging through the quarter and volumes were down sequentially by 20% MoM, largely because business came to a near standstill in Nigeria on account of election-related unrest, as well as demonetization.” However, retail has bounced back post elections”.

    Bajaj Auto is managing inventory across 96 countries, of which 40 are key markets. Goldman Sachs revised its target price for Bajaj Auto to Rs 9,380 from Rs 8,780 earlier, with a “Neutral” rating. The brokerage raised the target price due to unexpected volume growth, falling EV battery costs, stable raw material prices, rupee depreciation aiding exports, and price adjustments on Pulsar models affecting the export mix.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    17 Apr 2024
    Chart of the week: Family-owned listed firms are top buyers of electoral bonds

    Chart of the week: Family-owned listed firms are top buyers of electoral bonds

    By Satyam Kumar

    The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had introduced the electoral bonds scheme, amid significant controversy, in 2018. This scheme allowed corporate houses and individuals to anonymously donate funds to political parties.

    The BJP had defended the scheme, saying that it  will take out black money from politics. But in February 2024, the Supreme Court of India ruled that political funding cannot be anonymous and ordered the government to discontinue the scheme. The State Bank of India (SBI) was required to release electoral bonds data to the public. The Supreme Court noted that infringement of the Right to Information is not justified to curb black money.

    In this Chart of the Week, let's take a look at how some of the biggest names in the Indian stock market turned out to have invested heavily in electoral bonds until February 2024, when the Supreme Court of India banned it. India's apex court noted that corporate contributions are ‘purely business transactions made with the intent of securing benefits in return’.

    If we take a closer look at the top contributors, all the top donors are family-owned firms looking to pass the leadership baton to their kids. These donations to political parties can help them develop strong relationships with political parties, and in turn cement their dominance in their industries via friendly regulation. This can also act as entry barriers for other smaller players. 

    According to the data released by the Election Commission of India, the Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party received funding of Rs 6,061 crore via electoral bonds. This constitutes 47.5% of the total funds donated.

    Reliance and Adani Group buy bonds through their subsidiaries

    Starting with Qwik Supply Chain, the third-largest donor to political parties using electoral bonds donated Rs 410 crore. Out of the total Rs 410 crore, Rs 375 crore went to the BJP, Rs 25 crore to Shiv Sena, and the remaining Rs 10 crore to the Nationalist Congress Party. According to Press Trust of India, Qwik Supply Chain, registered at Navi Mumbai's Dhirubhai Ambani Knowledge City, has connections to family-owned Reliance Industries. However, a spokesperson for Reliance Industries stated: “Qwik Supply Chain is not a subsidiary of any Reliance entity.” The Reliance Group in August 2023 announced that Isha, Akash and Anant have been appointed to the board of directors at Reliance Industries.

    The Adani Group, which is believed to have close ties with the ruling party, contributed a total of Rs 55.4 crore. This includes donations from ABC India and three subsidiaries of the Welspun Group. According to a press release, the Adani Group holds a 65%  shareholding in Adani Welspun Exploration Ltd through Adani Enterprises. As a family-owned business, Gautam Adani’s two sons, Karan and Jeet Adani hold crucial positions in Adani Group companies.

    Environmental violations main concerns for Sun Pharma and Vedanta

    Family-owned mining company Vedanta has faced criticism for environmental violations across its mining and oil & gas projects in India. The company purchased electoral bonds worth Rs 441 crore. Reports suggest that the company’s electoral bonds buying spree could have been key to the recent weakening of environmental regulations. 

    Of the total 441 crore paid out, more than half went to the BJP, while Rs 125 crore went to the Indian National Congress, Rs 40 crore to Biju Janata Dal, and the rest to other political parties. Anil Agarwal, who was a successor to the company, passed on to him by his father D P Agarwal, has recently said that the company will be run only by professionals. However, his kids still hold high-profile positions in the subsidiaries. 

    Similarly, pharma company Sun Pharmaceutical Industries contributed Rs 32 crore to BJP through electoral bonds, purchased via one of its subsidiaries, Sun Pharma Laboratories. Sun Pharma has also faced allegations of environmental violations. This drug manufacturing company is also mainly family-owned. Aalok Shanghvi, son of Dilip Shanghvi, holds the position of Executive Director in the company.

    Major telecom industry players bought electoral bonds

    Telecom services company Bharti Airtel and its subsidiaries purchased bonds worth Rs 234 crore in total. The Bharti group donated Rs 150 crore to the ruling party through two sets of bonds purchased before and after the government introduced a new law concerning the auction of satellite spectrum. The law allowed the spectrum to be assigned through an administrative order, doing away with the need for competitive auctions. This ultimately benefited Bharti Enterprises, because OneWeb India, a subsidiary of international company Eutelsat OneWeb, with Bharti Enterprises as its majority stakeholder, was the first to meet the prerequisites for spectrum application. 

    This family-owned company has appointed Shravin Mittal, son of Sunil Mittal, as the Managing Director of the family’s investment arm, Bharti Global and Director at Airtel Africa.

    Meanwhile, Aditya Birla Group, led by Kumar Mangalam Birla, donated Rs 556 through Essel Mining and Industries, and other subsidiaries. Many analysts indicated that the company wanted favours from the government related to its debt in the joint venture Vodafone Idea. Coincidentally, shortly after the donation of Rs 100 crore in February 2023, the centre announced the conversion of debt of Rs 16,000 crore into equity, resulting in the Indian government becoming the largest shareholder with a 33% stake in the company.

    Kotak and Torrent’s contributions point to major anti-competitive favours

    The Kotak family group led by Uday Kotak has purchased electoral bonds and donated Rs 60 crore only to the BJP. Uday Kotak was in a dispute with the RBI regarding his stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank, which exceeded the limit set by the central bank, which started in 2013. In December 2018, Kotak Mahindra Bank took the RBI to court over the issue. Thirteen months later, in January 2020, the RBI agreed to a proposal from the private bank in an out-of-court settlement. Infina Capital, a company belonging to the Kotak family group, purchased electoral bonds worth Rs 35 crore in the months leading up to the settlement.

    In April 2021, Infina Capital purchased additional bonds worth Rs 25 crore to support the ruling party. This coincided with the RBI's announcement of fresh guidelines allowing Uday Kotak to continue as the Managing Director and CEO of Kotak Mahindra Bank for another 32 months.

    Torrent Group, led by Samir and Sudhir Mehta purchased bonds worth Rs 184 crore. Torrent Power and Torrent Pharmaceuticals, both listed entities of the Torrent Group, donated Rs 76 crore and Rs 61 crore, respectively, to the BJP. Consequently, the Torrent group received special privileges from the Devendra Fadnavis government in 2019 exempting them from property tax of Rs 285 crore.

    It's apparent that electoral bonds can serve as a means for corporate family entities to gain favors from the government, especially considering the 100% tax benefits associated with donations. 

    India has long had a problem with such crony capitalism - wealth built via close corporate-government ties accounts for 8% of India’s GDP and rising. Practices like electoral bond buying worsen such cronyism further by undermining competition, and entrenching the dominance of these companies.

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    The Baseline
    16 Apr 2024
    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 16, 2024

    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 16, 2024

    By Satyam Kumar

    1. Endurance Technologies:

    Hem Securities reiterates a ‘Buy’ call on this auto parts manufacturer with a target price of Rs 2,219, indicating an upside of 20.8%. Analyst Abhishek Sharda say, “Endurance Technologies has a very strong positioning in the two-wheeler market and it is a very good proxy for the Indian two-wheeler industry.” 

    Sharda is optimistic about the company due to its strong order wins both in Europe and India. Order wins from India stood at Rs 940 crore in 9MFY24 and orders from Europe were 29 million euro. The analyst expects the orders to peak in FY26. 

    Sharda believes that the company has a diverse revenue profile in terms of geography, products and vehicles. He also believes that it is ready for the trend shift towards electric vehicles. Sharda expects EBITDA margins to improve on the back of improving capacity utilisation. He concludes, “Endurance Technologies will continue to focus on emerging technologies to grow its portfolio through both organic and inorganic routes.”

    2. Coforge:

    Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this IT consulting and software company with a target price of Rs 7,670. This indicates an upside of 42.1%. Analysts at Sharekhan point to the company’s strong order book and large deal pipeline. “The company is well placed to deliver a top quadrant performance in FY25,” they note. Coforge has strong revenue visibility with an order book of $974 million as of Q3FY24 (up 15.8% YoY) to be executed over the next year.

    Analysts are also optimistic as the company plans to raise Rs 3,200 crore from qualified institutional placements (QIP). Coforge intends to use these funds purely for mergers and acquisitions. They expect this to help the company quickly expand into new verticals such as cyber security, data services, and cloud operations. They also expect a sharp uptick in Coforge’s EBITDA margins in Q4FY24 owing to deal ramp-ups. Analysts at Sharekhan expect sales and profit CAGR of 17% and 32% respectively over FY24-26. 

    3. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals:

    KRChoksey maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceutical company with a target price of Rs 1,266, indicating an upside of 21.3%. Analyst Unnati Jadhav is upbeat as the completion of the sale of Glenmark Lifesciences strengthens the balance sheet and earnings prospects of the company. She expects this deal to help Glenmark Pharma to become a ‘brand-led’ organization, with a focus on the core therapeutic areas of dermatology, respiratory, and oncology. She believes the total debt of Rs 4,953 crore will be repaid in FY25 from the proceeds of the deal, which in turn will save finance costs and boost earnings.

    Jadhav is optimistic as the company has shown higher than market growth for the months of January and February 2024 for the India pharma market (IPM). While IPM growth was 9.5% YoY for January 2024, Glenmark Pharma grew 20.2% over the same period. In February 2024, the company reported 11.3% YoY growth vs overall IPM growth of 9.0%. She attributes this to changes in the distribution model involving stock point consolidation and channel inventory rationalization in the domestic business. Going forward, Jadhav expects this move to improve Glenmark’s operating margins and working capital.

    4. Shalby:

    ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this healthcare facilities company with a target price of Rs 320, indicating an upside of 18.7%. Analyst Siddhant Khandekar is upbeat as the company introduced the asset-light franchisee model to expand its hospital business into newer geographies. The company owns 10 multispecialty hospitals and 6 franchisee hospitals with a 2,362 bed capacity. Khandekar expects the company to expand its Shalby Centre for Orthopaedic Excellence (SOCE), an asset-light franchisee model, across India. It has established six such models across the country and expects to add 40 more over the next 4-5 years.

    Khandekar believes that the company is trading at a cheap valuation compared to other PAN-India players. He is optimistic as the headwinds faced in FY24 in Shalby’s implants business look transitory. The company plans to expand its business beyond the US and India to improve profitability going forward. 

    5. Man Infraconstruction:

    Axis Direct initiates a ‘Buy’ call on this construction and engineering company with a target price of Rs 270. This indicates an upside of 28.8%. Analysts Eesha Shah and Preeyam Tolia are optimistic about the company on the back of its healthy project pipeline and strong execution capabilities. 

    Man Infraconstruction has invested Rs 700 crore in real estate projects, covering a portfolio of 4.6 million square feet. The firm also maintains zero level of inventory of completed projects. The firm is expected to generate a revenue of Rs 1,343 crore with a net cash surplus of Rs 350 crore in FY24 (whereas its peer, Brigade Enterprises is expected to generate revenue of Rs 4,200 crore with a net debt of Rs 2,140 crore). The analysts believe that this asset-light model for a real estate developer makes it an attractive company in the segment. 

    The analysts like the company due to its order book and project pipeline. Currently, the firm has 2 million square feet of ongoing projects and 3.7 million square feet of upcoming real estate projects. Its EPC business order book stands at Rs 1,047 crore. 

    Shah and Tolia say that the company exhibits a very low debt book for a real estate developer. They conclude, “Due to its asset-light business model, it can scale up without significant capital pressure, thereby improving the bottom line in coming years.”

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    12 Apr 2024, 06:09PM
     Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 12, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 12, 2024

    1. Godrej Properties:

    This realty company hit its all-time high of Rs 2,791.8 on Tuesday and rose by 11.2% in the past week after it released its Q4 business update. It has risen by 117.5% in the past year, but still underperformed its sector by 18.8% points.

    In Q4FY24, the company’s bookings grew 135% YoY to Rs 9,500 crore and sold 5,331 homes. Its bookings grew 84% YoY to over Rs 22,500 crore in FY24 with sales of 14,310 homes on the back of improving project mix as well as strong volume growth. The management said, “This is the highest ever quarterly and annual sales to date by any publicly listed real estate developer in India.” The firm also exceeded its annual bookings guidance of Rs 14,000 crore.  

    In the past week, Godrej Properties said that it has sold inventory worth Rs 2,690 crore in its Mumbai project, Godrej Reserve. This project has an estimated revenue potential of approx Rs 7,000 crore. Similarly, the firm also sold homes worth over Rs 3,000 crore within three days of the launch of its project Godrej Zenith in Gurugram. 

    Along with its rising bookings, the company’s debt levels are rising as well. Its net debt stands at Rs 6,900 crore. Its debt-to-equity ratio has consistently increased over four consecutive quarters to 0.7 in Q3FY24 from 0.4 in Q4FY23. 

    Trendlyne Forecaster estimates a 25% YoY increase in Godrej Properties’ FY24 profit. HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Accumulate’ rating on Godrej Properties on the back of a strong launch pipeline of 18 million square feet over the next 2-3 years. The brokerage estimates a growth of 15% CAGR in net sales over FY24-26. It believes that the firm will add projects on a replacement basis rather than having lumpy transactions. The company appears in a screener for stocks with recommendations or target price upgrades by brokers.

    2. IIFL Finance:

    This finance company has surged 19.6% in the past week, driven by several positive developments. On April 5, the stock rose 13.2% after its price band limit was revised to 20% from 10%. Additionally, the company received approval from the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) on April 1 to acquire equity shares worth Rs 284.4 crore in the exchange through a secondary market purchase from FIH Mauritius Investments.

    Despite recent gains, Trendlyne’s Technicals indicates that the stock is trading at a discount of 33.7% from its all-time high of Rs 703.4. It fell after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) imposed restrictions on IIFL Finance on March 4, prohibiting it from sanctioning and disbursing gold loans due to ‘material supervisory concerns’.

    This was a significant blow - as of December 31, 2023, gold loans comprised 32% of the total assets under management (AUM) at Rs 24,692 crore for the IIFL Finance Group and 79% of the standalone AUM of IIFL Finance. 

    Following the RBI ban, the company, to ensure enough liquidity raised Rs 500 crore through a non-convertible bond issue on March 20, as part of a larger fundraising plan worth Rs 2,000 crore.

    Managing Director, Nirmal Jain said that, “The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) action on the firm’s gold loan business was attributed to ‘operational issues’ and not governance or ethical problems.” Jain said that the company is implementing corrective measures to reduce discrepancies in the assessment of gold value between branches and audit teams. 

    As of February, Trendlyne’s Forecaster showed a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' on the stock with all six analysts rating it a 'Strong Buy'. However, post the ban, the consensus in April shifted to 'Hold,' with three analysts rating it as 'Strong Buy,' one as 'Hold,' and another as 'Sell.'  With an average target price of Rs 581, IIFL Finance has a potential upside of 34.1%.

    Motilal Oswal reiterated its 'Buy' rating on March 6, estimating that it could take around six months for the RBI to conduct a special audit and resolve its observations. 

    3. Bandhan Bank:

    This bank has fallen by 7.3% over the past week, following an announcement that Chandra Sekhar Ghosh will retire as the MD & CEO after his current tenure ends on July 9, 2024. Investors were taken by surprise, since in November 2023 the bank’s board had approved his reappointment for three years, effective July 10, 2024. As a result of the fall in share price, the bank features in a screener of companies with weak momentum.

    Ghosh has been serving in this position since July 10, 2015. Now, he is expected to  take up a strategic role at the group level. According to reports, an external candidate is likely to replace him as CEO. 

    The retirement comes amid ongoing challenges for the bank, including Covid-related stress in asset quality and a slower recovery than its peers. In addition, Bandhan Bank is currently undergoing a forensic audit by the National Credit Guarantee Trustee Company (NCGTC) for loans worth Rs 23,000 crore (constituting roughly 18% of the total loan book as of Q3FY24), with conclusions expected in 1-2 months.  

    Meanwhile, in Q4FY24, Bandhan Bank’s deposits have grown by 25.1% YoY to Rs 1.4 lakh crore, while its advances rose by 17.8% YoY.  Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the bank’s net profit to grow by 27.5% YoY in Q4FY24. However, analysts are concerned about the uncertainty around management succession and the potential challenges in terms of growth strategy for the bank. The new CEO's transition would take at least six months. 

    According to Nomura, “With leadership now in flux, we see more uncertainties for the franchise”. It has downgraded its rating on the bank to ‘Reduce’ and slashed the target price to Rs 175.

    4. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders:

    This defence stock rose 4% on Monday after it reported a year-on-year annual revenue growth of 20% to almost Rs. 9,400 crore for FY24 (this is an unaudited figure). The stock has gained over 222% in share price over one year.

    China in the news tends to be good for defence companies like Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders. The rising naval threat from China in the Indian Ocean, especially around Sri Lanka and the Maldives, and its sales of submarines to Pakistan and Bangladesh, have drawn the Indian government’s attention.

    Consequently, the Indian defence industry has seen a big boost in government orders over the past year, and has risen 141% overall. The industry is likely to remain bullish in the coming quarters –  the government is considering spending $130 billion over the next six years for fleet modernisation across its armed services. The sector received over $70 billion in the interim budget for 2024-25.

    A substantial amount of India’s spending in this sector is likely to be allocated to submarine and ship manufacturers like Mazagon Dock, as India looks to aggressively boost its naval capabilities. The Indian navy currently has about 140 ships, which is expected to expand to 170-175 ships by 2035. Mazagon Dock has the only shipyard in the country that has built naval destroyers and conventional submarines for the Indian Navy. Its order book is currently 5x its revenue, and Nirmal Bang expects a revenue CAGR of 25% over FY24-26E.

    The company is however, not exactly a value buy at this point. It is trading at relatively high PE compared to historical trends, and has traded below its current PE 80% of the time. Trendlyne’s Forecaster share price target is relatively bearish on Mazagon Dock due to the run up in its share price over the past year. The consensus is Hold, with a target price of Rs. 1857, a downside of 16.7%. 

    5. Exide Industries:

    This auto parts & equipment manufacturer touched a new 52-week high today of Rs 403. Exide Energy Solutions, its wholly owned subsidiary, signed an MOU with Hyundai Motors and Kia, where they plan to collaborate on battery cell development and supply for Hyundai’s Indian EVs. The company also recently acquired a 26% equity stake in “Clean Max Arcadia”, a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV)  incorporated by Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions, a renewable energy firm based out of Mumbai, to promote renewable energy on a long term basis.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company's net profit to grow by 40.2% to Rs 291.3 crore in Q4FY24 while revenue is expected to improve by 15.6% YoY. The firm however missed estimates for Q3FY24 for net profit by 9.4% and revenue by 2.7% due to higher raw material prices during the quarter.

    Factors such as rising demand for personal mobility, a shift in global supply chains and increasing demand for more efficient batteries are acting as long term drivers for the company. Exide is also venturing into manufacturing of Li-On cells in technical collaboration with SVOLT (Chinese collaboration) with a capex outlay of  around Rs 6,000 crore for a 12 GWH capacity. The first phase of 6 GWH is slated to be operational in 2025 with a capex outlay of  around Rs 4,000 crore, and the complete plant in the next 3-4 years.

    Subir Chakraborty, MD & CEO, said: “We are optimistic about the future and are witnessing signs of demand pick-up. Our Lithium-ion cell production is on schedule. We plan to regain our pre-Covid  EBITDA margin levels of 13-14% in the next 1-2 years.”

    ICICI Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ for Exide with a target price of Rs 400, which it hit today. The brokerage notes that with stable raw material prices (lead at ~US$ 2,100/tonne) and operational efficiencies, margins should inch up to 12.5% by FY26.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    10 Apr 2024
    Chart of the week: The biggest wealth destroyers of FY24

    Chart of the week: The biggest wealth destroyers of FY24

    By Satyam Kumar

    Over the past year, the Indian equity market has seen remarkable growth, highlighted by the Nifty 500 index rising 39.1% in FY24. But as always, the rising tide lifted some boats higher, while others sprung leaks. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we take a look at companies that saw big declines in their share prices, underperforming the index and eating into investors' wealth in FY24.

    At the end of FY24, 45 Nifty 500 companies feature in the Wealth Destroyers screener, which looks for negative share price changes in the past year. The chemicals and petrochemicals sector had a difficult year and dominates this list with the highest number (eleven) of wealth destroyers. These include UPL, Navin Fluorine International, Atul and Aether Industries among others. 

    Retailing and logistics companies also faced challenges with above-average inflation in FY24, which peaked in July 2023 at 7.4%. However, central banks worldwide are trying to bring inflation down by keeping interest rates higher. Still, rising geopolitical tensions, and crude production cuts by OPEC+ have kept inflation sticky.

    Regulatory issues trigger sell-off in Paytm and Rajesh Exports

    In the gems and jewellery industry, which rose 78.4% in the past year, Rajesh Exports depreciated by 50.7%. The company is involved in various compliance issues, including instances of missing documents during earnings filings, which were further compounded by declining revenues. Their net profit for Q3FY24 slumped 97% YoY at Rs 12.4 crore. According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, Rajesh Exports fell to a 5-year low at Rs 261 on March 28, 2024.

    Similarly, internet software and services company, One97 Communications faced a significant setback following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) directive on January 31. The RBI ordered Paytm Payments Bank to cease banking services due to persistent non-compliance concerns. However, the stock has been stabilizing after its Founder & CEO, Vijay Shekhar Sharma resigned from the Payments Bank board. At the same time, the company also withdrew its nominee and the bank’s future business is to be led by a reconstituted board. The company’s share price has gone down 39.1% in the past quarter.

    Weak demand and Chinese competition hurt the chemical industry’s profits

    The chemical sector faced continued price pressures in the past year, mainly due to a weak and erratic monsoon. As a result, major agrochemical company UPL posted a net loss of Rs 1,217 crore in Q3FY24, compared to a profit of Rs 1,087 crore in Q3FY23. 

    Another contributing factor was a sharp decrease in price realisation, and higher supplies from Chinese competitors as Covid-related restrictions eased. 

    Commodity chemicals company, Navin Fluorine International declined due to industry-wide channel destocking and inventory reductions. As a result, the company’s net profit fell 26.8% YoY to Rs 78 crore in Q3FY24. Navin Fluorine’s share price has slumped by 25.8% in the past year. Meanwhile, specialty chemicals company, Atul is down 14% in the past year, with a fall of 15.1% in the past quarter. This company has also witnessed its net profits fall 32.5% YoY in Q3FY24.

    Sticky inflation eats into logistics and retail companies' revenue

    As inflation in India peaked in 2023, people started paring down their discretionary spending. As demand softened, footwear company Campus Activewear saw its net profit contract 48.4% YoY in Q3FY24 at Rs 24.9 crore. At the same time, Vedant Fashions, also known as Manyavar, witnessed its sales in 9MFY24 increase only marginally to Rs 1,050 crore. However, the company saw its net profit in 9MFY24 fell 25.4% YoY to Rs 320 crore. This ethnic wear manufacturer witnessed its share price fall 24.8% in the past quarter because wedding-related consumption remained muted in FY24, unlike FY23, due to the lower number of wedding dates and the broader impact of consumption slowdown.

    Meanwhile, logistics company Allcargo also declined 15.4% in the past year. This is because their net profit in Q3FY24 fell by 93% YoY to Rs 11 crore. This was on the back of significant losses incurred in some of the markets in the US and Germany. The company expects global trade to revive in Q2FY25. 

    Edible oils company, Adani Wilmar’s share price slumped after the Hindenburg report came out on January 24 last year, which alleged that the Adani group was manipulating and inflating stock prices. Making matters worse, Wilmar’s net profit in 9MFY24 went down by 76% YoY to Rs 122 crore. The company’s revenue in 9MFY24 decreased 13% YoY to Rs 36,539 crore. This contraction in revenue was mainly due to weak demand in the edible oil segment (contributing 75% to its revenue) and lower product prices.

    A cancelled merger creates major hurdles for Zee Entertainment

    Finally, media company Zee Entertainment has fallen 28.8% in the past year and 46.2% in the past quarter mainly because Sony Group’s India unit called off its proposed merger amid questions around fund diversion and corporate governance.

    Adding to its woes, Reliance Industries entered into a joint venture with Walt Disney on February 28 to merge Viacom18 and Star India. This deal which resulted in a media behemoth worth Rs 70,352 crore, will negatively impact Zee as it would be difficult for the company to scale up its market share. The lesson here is that even in a rising economy and a surging stock market, there are many stumbles – self-inflicted and otherwise. 

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    The Baseline
    05 Apr 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 5, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 5, 2024

    1. Latent View Analytics:

    This data processing services company rose by 8.2% over the past week after it acquired a 70% stake in Indian IT services company Decision Point on March 28 for $39.1 million (approx. Rs 326.3 crore). Decision Point is a leader in business improvement using artificial intelligence (AI), and revenue growth management solutions. The acquisition,Latent View says, will give it a foothold in the retail CPG segment. It will also give access to new clients and geographies. The company appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding in the past month.

    Decision Point will also bring new large clients in the Retail CPG vertical, and in new regions like LatAm, US (its clients are largely US firms and are billed in $) and India. As a higher margin business, Decision Point can play a role in restoring LatentView’s operating margins to its historic levels of 32.1% (stands at 24.4% in FY23). 

    Speaking on the acquisition, the management commented, “Decision Point derives about 8% revenue from Beagle GPT (the GenAI app used by Fortune 500 retail CPG clients), which helps the company have multiple revenue streams. After the integration, the retail CPG segment will become the second largest (20% of revenue by FY25) vertical for the company.”

    Post the acquisition, Anand Rathi Wealth Management maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 630. This indicates a potential upside of 14.6%. The brokerage expects the company to maintain industry-leading growth in Q4FY24, despite the prevailing tough environment, followed by strong growth in FY25 supported by Decision Point’s integration (expected to be completed in Q1FY25).

    2. AU Small Finance Bank:

    This small finance bank has risen by 4.8% in the last two days after releasing its Q4 business update. Its total deposits have risen 26% YoY to Rs 87,182 crore and gross advances grew by 25% YoY to Rs 73,999 crore. 

    The management noted that the macro environment has remained challenging in Q4FY24, due to intense competition among banks to mobilize deposits. However, the expansion in the bank’s business groups, such as urban branch banking (which focuses on the urban market and constitutes 79% of deposits) and swadesh banking (which focuses on the core market and makes up 21% of deposits) have driven deposit growth during the quarter. 

    AU Bank has risen by 12.4% over the past week, outperforming its industry by 8.3%. On Monday, the bank announced the merger with Fincare SFB, after receiving approval from the RBI on March 4. Fincare has previously served a total customer base of approximately 54 lakh across 1,292 branches, with a strong presence in South India. After the merger, AU Bank’s total branch count will reach around 2,334, serving over 1 crore customers. 

    The merger enables AU Bank to expand into new geographical areas, especially in South India. This increased presence will facilitate the distribution of its products and services to a larger customer base, and help strengthen its market position in the south. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, the bank’s revenue is expected to grow by 26% YoY in FY24.

    Motilal Oswal reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 720. This implies an upside of 13.4%. It believes that the overall business of the bank will become more diversified,  gaining presence in high-yielding MFI (micro-finance) and gold loan. 

    3. Tata Technologies:

    This software and services company has surged by 9.9% in the past week following its joint venture (JV) announcement with BMW Group. This partnership involves building a software hub with a 1,000+ workforce to provide the BMW Group with automotive software and digital engineering services. JM Financial estimates that the JV could add 4-5 percent to their bottom line. 

    This collaboration is also expected to diversify the company’s client base, which is currently dominated by Tata group firms that account for approximately 33% of revenue as of Q3FY24.

    Tata Tech’s IPO worth Rs 3,042.5 crore was oversubscribed 69.4 times and debuted with substantial gains of 162.6%. Currently, the stock trades 124.3% above its issue price since November 2023. Price consolidation in the past few months was mainly because of investors cashing in on bumper listing gains.  Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue to grow by 14% YoY in FY24. At the same time, it forecasts its net profit to increase by 12.5% YoY. 

    The share of electric vehicles (EVs) in India's auto sales has surged to 6.4% in 2023 from 1.75% in 2021, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards EVs over the past two years. This suggests that India has crossed the tipping point in mass adoption of EVs, with sales now exceeding 5% of overall auto sales. Tata Technologies, with its extensive expertise in automotive technology, is well-positioned to capitalise on this EV trend.

    CEO, Warren Harris, says "We see very strong tailwinds as the industry pivots towards alternative propulsion systems and connected services." Despite some OEMs suggesting a slowdown in EV sector growth, Harris remains upbeat, believing otherwise from a product engineering perspective. Additionally, he highlighted optimism in the aerospace sector, citing their relationship with Airbus.

    Joindre Capital has initiated a 'Buy' rating on Tata Technologies. They believe that the company's expertise in the engineering, research and development (ER&D) space, along with its long-standing relationships with OEMs worldwide, increasing outsourcing demand, and rising EV adoption will drive growth.

    4. Mahindra & Mahindra

    This cars & utility vehicles manufacturer rose by 4.8% over the past week. The company recently signed an agreement with Volkswagen group, where it will equip its new electric platform INGLO with electric components from Volkswagen´s Modular electric drive matrix (MEB) and unified cells. The company plans to launch five all-electric SUVs on INGLO, starting December 2024.The company also signed an Memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Adani Total Energies E-Mobility to set up EV charging infrastructure across the country. 

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company's net profit to grow by 27.8% to Rs 1,980 crore in Q4FY24 due to its strong PV order book in Q4FY24, while revenue should improve by 6.7% YoY. The firm beat the Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimates for Q3FY24 for net profit by 5.9%, but missed the revenue estimate by 0.3%.

    The company’s total wholesales for FY24 rose by 18.1% YoY to 8.3 lakh units and the passenger vehicles domestic wholesales rose by 12.9% YoY to 40,631 units. But rural demand has been weak, driving YoY declines in  commercial vehicles, 3W and tractor wholesales – these fell 6.1%, 7.3%, 27.8% respectively. 

    However, demand is reportedly strong for its new launches, specially the SUV’s priced above Rs 10-12 lakh. The company is ramping up its SUV production capacity to 49k units per month, from the current 40-42k units. 

    Rajesh Jejurikar, ED & CEO, Auto & Farm Sectors of the firm, said, “ New bookings continue to be healthy at around 50,000 per month and the order backlog stands at around 2.3 lakh units. The rural economy is experiencing challenges, but tractor subsidies have decreased, benefiting the industry. Farm machinery growth is 29%, with a goal of 40% this year. In the urban space there are segments, particularly the rich, where we are seeing increased demand for certain vehicles.”

    ICICI Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ for Mahindra & Mahindra with a target price of Rs 2,225. The brokerage maintains its bullish stance on M&M due to the company's market leadership in the SUV and tractor segments. The brokerage expects sales to grow at 14.2% CAGR in FY23-26E amid 9.4% blended volume CAGR. The adjusted PAT is expected to grow to Rs 11,496 crore by FY26E.

    The brokerage currently values M&M based on Sum Of The Parts (SOTP) at Rs 2,225 (11x FY26E standalone EV/EBITDA and Rs 300 per share value accruing for the Electric PV arm).

    5. Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL):

    This department stores company rose by 15.5% in the past week. The rise came after the company announced a vertical demerger of its Madura Fashion & Lifestyle (MFL) business into a separate listed entity. This move aims to create two growth engines, with distinct plans to create value and allocate capital. Managing Director Ashish Dikshit said, “The restructuring will help the company focus on different strategies for each business segment.”

    MFL’s portfolio consists of lifestyle, casual wear, and sportswear brands like Louis Phillippe, Van Heusen, Allen Solly, Peter England, American Eagle, Forever 21, and Reebok. After the demerger, ABFRL’s portfolio will consist of value retail, ethnic, luxury, and digital brands. The demerger will allow ABFRL to focus on high-growth segments where there are tailwinds from a shift to premiumization, the rise of super-premium and luxury brands, and rapid growth in digital-first brands.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the firm to report a loss of Rs 293.2 crore in Q4FY24 and expects revenue to fall 16.9% YoY. The company reported a net loss of Rs 186.9 crore in Q4FY23. Analysts are cautious due to the company’s rising debt and inefficient working capital management. They believe that any misstep can lead to inventory liquidation-led margin loss or derailed growth. ABFRL also appears in a screener for stocks with low Piotroski scores (companies with weak financials).

    Axis Securities maintains a ‘Hold’ on the company on the back of near-term challenges, such as a slowdown in discretionary spending due to lower demand from tier-2/3/4 cities, a sharp increase in debt, and an increase in ad spending.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    04 Apr 2024

    Chart of the week: Finance, construction stocks among those with the highest analyst growth estimates for FY24

    By Satyam Kumar


    As the financial year ends, investors are eager to see the FY24 report cards of companies. But there are already predictions from analysts of who the top-rankers will be, ahead of the final quarter’s result season.  

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we take a look at the sectors and companies that analysts believe will come out on top. These have the highest growth estimates for revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for FY24.  

    The reference here is this screener of stocks with the highest Trendlyne’s Forecaster growth estimates in annual revenue and EPS in FY24. We have selected stocks with the highest Forecaster estimates from the most dominant sectors.

    Banking and finance sector companies estimated to post strong revenue growth in FY24

    The banking and finance sector has multiple companies with the highest Forecaster estimates for revenue and EPS in FY24. Lending company CreditAccess Grameen caters to low-income households lacking access to formal sources of financing. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates annual revenue growth for FY24 at 43.4% for CreditAccess, with EPS growth of 71.8%. Analysts at ICICI Securities believe that the company’s deeper penetration in rural areas, focus on increasing geographic coverage & diversifying product segments will help growth. In Q3FY24, the company had added 17 new branches, taking its total count to 1,894.

    Two other big winners in this space are capital markets companies such as Angel One and ICICI Securities, which are beneficiaries of the bullishness around the Indian stock market. Angel One is Angel Broking, post its rebranding and an aggressive focus on derivatives. Forecaster estimates Angel One’s annual revenue to increase by 45.2%. At the same time, Forecaster estimates ICICI Securities’ revenue to grow by 42.4% and EPS to rise by 48.1% in FY24.

    Construction stocks’ order book near all-time highs on the back of robust execution

    With their order book near all-time highs, construction companies such as Ahluwalia Contracts, Kalpataru Projects and PSP Projects are benefiting from strong order inflows. This is because of a 33% YoY rise in government spending on infrastructure at Rs 10 lakh crore in FY24 and a strong economy. Forecaster estimates Ahluwalia Contracts’ revenue growth of 33.5% in FY24, with EPS growth of 31.5%. Meanwhile, it estimates Kalpataru Projects’ annual EPS to increase by 50.9%. 

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates PSP Projects to post annual revenue growth of 31.2% in FY24, with EPS growth of 16.1%. The company says it’s confident of achieving a Rs 26 billion revenue target for FY24 with 11-12% EBITDA margins. However, since the start of FY24, it has witnessed increasing debt levels. In Q3FY24, debt stood at Rs 478 crore. With a few projects nearing completion, the company plans to reduce it meaningfully.

    Consumer demand drives growth in the electronics and automobile sector

    Moving to the consumer durables sector, Dixon Technologies is a major beneficiary of the Make in India scheme, with additional support from the government’s production-linked incentive schemes. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates revenue growth for Dixon Technologies at 51.4% YoY in FY24, with EPS growth at 54.7%. Meanwhile, Polycab India is benefitting from growing industrial demand for wires and cables as various real estate projects nears completion. 

    Consumer electronics company Voltas stands to gain from consumer demand, especially in the cooling space, due to extreme weather conditions. At the same time, premiumisation of products has led to better margins. Forecaster estimates Voltas’ FY24 revenue growth at 23.5%, with EPS growth of 62.3%.

    Automobile company Tata Motors witnessed strong demand across all segments in FY24. Forecaster estimates its revenue growth in FY24 at 26.5%, with EPS growth of 1,671%. The significant rise in EPS is mainly due to a jump in sales volumes in its luxury vehicles segment. Also, the margin expansion for Jaguar Land Rover to above 8% in FY24E along with a 50% debt reduction (on a consolidated basis) will help achieve bottom-line growth. In FY23, the company posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 2,414.3 crore, compared to a loss in the previous years. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the revenue growth of auto components companies such as Samvardhana Motherson and UNO Minda at 25.8% and 23.4% respectively in FY24. 

    Healthcare facilities company Max Healthcare witnessed its bed occupancy stabilise at 75% levels in 2024. Motilal Oswal expects average revenue per occupied bed to increase by 8% YoY in FY24. Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue growth at 50.4%, with EPS growth of 20.7%. Meanwhile, Apollo Hospitals currently has bed occupancy above 65%, Forecaster estimates revenue growth of 15.4%, with EPS growth of 20.5% in FY24. On the other hand, leisure facilities company, Wonderla Holidays’ is focusing on enhancing customer experience and adding new parks every 3-4 years to drive growth.

    Strong order book and international orders in general industrials drive growth

    Finally, general industrial companies stand to benefit from a strong order book on the back of domestic as well as international orders. Triveni Turbine witnessed export sales growth of 35% YoY to Rs 190 crore in Q3FY24. The company is seeing a surge in order bookings from the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, Turkey, and the Americas. This has led Forecaster to estimate annual revenue growth of 34.6%, with EPS growth of 40% in FY24. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates Bharat Forge’s revenue to grow at 21.3%, with EPS growth at 87.7% in FY24. 

    Meanwhile, ABB India is witnessing demand from civil construction players engaged in building public infrastructure assets as they are focusing on high-quality products, which is helping margins. Forecaster estimates the company’s annual revenue growth for FY24 at 21.8%, with EPS growth of 17.7%.

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    The Baseline
    02 Apr 2024
    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week

    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    1. Dalmia Bharat:

    BOB Capital Markets upgrades this cement products manufacturer to ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 2,443. This indicates an upside of 22.7%. Analysts Milind Raginwar and Shree Kirloskar say, “Dalmia Bharat is set to tap growth opportunities by consolidating its India presence, and its plans to address shortages by enhancing capacity in its major regions.” They expect the company’s market share to grow in FY25-26. 

    Dalmia Bharat plans to enhance capacity utilisation to 27.1 million tonnes in FY26 from 22.9 million tonnes currently. It also plans to raise cement capacity by 13.3% to 49.5 million tonnes in FY26. The analysts are also optimistic about the company due to its plans to enhance its alternative energy sources. Raginwar and Kirloskar expect these measures to improve EBITDA margin by 4.7% points to 21.7% in FY26.

    Given its healthy margins, focus on calibrated growth and limited balance sheet stress, the analysts believe that Dalmia Bharat is poised for sustained growth.

    2. Birlasoft:

    Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this IT consulting and software company with a target price of Rs 950. This indicates an upside of 24.7%. The analysts at Sharekhan met the company’s management to get an update on its outlook and growth plans. They say, “Birlasoft remains well placed to deliver top-quartile performance, guided by a revamped management, a robust order book and deal ramp-ups.” They believe that the company is witnessing a decent flow of cost take-out deals, which should drive a rebound in new deals after the moderation in Q3FY24.

    With the senior leadership hiring complete, the analysts are positive that the management is focused on agile growth. They say that it is investing in emerging technologies such as generative AI along with scaling up its existing capabilities in Microsoft Azure, AWS, GCP, and Cloud platforms. 

    The analysts expect 15% and 23% CAGR growth in sales and profit respectively, over FY25-26. 

    3. BSE:

    HDFC Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this exchange with a target price of Rs 3,050. This indicates an upside of 12.6%.  Analyst Amit Chandra says, “BSE has attained a 20% and 7% notional and premium market share, respectively, largely driven by the rising popularity of its derivatives contracts.” He is optimistic as the Sensex weekly contract has been a success, and Bankex is gaining strength. The analyst believes that BSE derivatives will continue to grow, with the growth led by the scaling of the Bankex contract, a higher volume of proprietary traders, and greater participation of Foreign Portfolio Investors. 

    Chandra believes that the core settlement guarantee fund (SGF) pool is increasing across exchanges, led by regulatory initiatives to mitigate risk. Also, the settlement costs for BSE are 2.5X that of NSE. The analysts expect SGF and settlement costs to fall gradually as economies of scale come into play. Assuming an 11% market share in premium in FY26, the analyst expects derivatives to contribute 43% of the company’s total revenue. He expects a revenue CAGR of 34% over FY25-26, led by a revival in transaction revenue. 

    4. Sagar Cements:

    Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades this cement products manufacturer to ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 246, indicating an upside of 11.6%. The company’s Q3FY24 revenue grew by 16% YoY, which the analyst Vincent Andrews believes was aided by volume growth of 14% YoY and realisation growth of 2.4% YoY. However, capacity utilisation was lower due to state elections, floods and festivals. The analyst reduces volume guidance for FY24 due to low capacity utilisation but expects an improvement in capacity utilisation over the next financial year.

    Andrews expects margin improvement, supported by a ramp-up in recently acquired units, improvement in the green power mix, and deployment of electric trucks and wheel loaders. He believes that the healthy demand outlook, given the strong government focus on infrastructure along with the company’s consistent focus on lowering costs and improving operational efficiencies, will aid growth and margins. The analyst expects revenue to grow at a 17% CAGR over FY25-26.

    5. South Indian Bank:

    ICICI Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ call on this bank with a target price of Rs 35, indicating an upside of 19.5%. The analyst Vishal Narnolia says, “Post restructuring, the bank now is focused on a five-step strategy to steer its growth and profitability.” According to him, this ‘five-step strategy’ includes a focus on accelerating growth in MSME and retail portfolios, improving branch productivity, and lowering a relatively higher cost-to-income ratio. The other two steps are sourcing new business through partnerships and enhancing compliance architecture.

    Narnolia believes that focusing on MSME and retail loans will improve margins. He also notes that a healthy liabilities franchise, recent capital raising and scope to increase the credit-to-deposit ratio will keep margins steady. He expects advances to grow at 13% CAGR over FY25-26. He concludes, “With business transformation imbibed and new competitive leadership, the current trajectory of business restructuring is expected to continue.”

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    28 Mar 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. ABB India:

    This heavy electrical equipment company has risen 10.9% over the past week, reaching its all-time high of Rs 6,472 today. This comes after UBS upgraded the company’s target price to Rs 7,550, implying an upside of 18.7%. The brokerage has retained its 'Buy' rating. UBS cited high double-digit growth across domestic and export orders from the motion and electrification segments. This is the highest target in the consensus – the average target from analysts on ABB India according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster is Rs. 5,148. 

    ABB India has also risen 16.7% over the past month, outperforming the industry by 3.5%. As a result, it features in a screener of companies with strong momentum.

    In Q3FY24, the heavy equipment manufacturer’s order inflows stood at Rs 3,147 crore, up 35% YoY, taking its order backlog to Rs 8,404 crore. ABB's orders have mostly been short-cycle ones. However, its large orders (longer gestation orders - to be executed in 18-24 months) are gaining momentum. The company is also seeing an improvement in large orders and now represents 15% of the total order book. UBS expects ABB India’s order inflow to grow by 23% during 2023–26E. With a strong order pipeline in place, the focus now falls on the execution of projects.  

    According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, the company’s revenue is expected to grow by 21.8% YoY in FY24. In Q3, it's revenue growth was led by new-tech segments, including electrification, robotics, and industrial automation. 

    Sanjeev Sharma, the Managing Director of ABB India says, “We expect growth to remain healthy given the ongoing capex upturn in India.” He cites potential drivers such as data centres, railways, metros, renewable energy and electronics. 

    2. Amber Enterprises India: 

    This consumer electronics company rose by 5.7% on March 21 after it  announced a 50% joint venture (JV) with Resojet, part of the Hyderabad-based Radiant Group of companies. The JV serves as an entry for Amber Enterprises into the manufacturing of fully automatic top-loading and front-loading washing machines and components. The washing machine industry in India has a market size of $2.4 billion (approximately Rs 20,002 crore) as of CY23. Amber Enterprises will also invest Rs 35 crore in the JV to acquire the 50% stake.

    The stock has risen by 13.5% over the past week, helping it appear in a screener of stocks outperforming their industries over the past quarter. 

    The company also previously expanded its electronics manufacturing services portfolio after its subsidiary, ILJIN Electronics, acquired a 60% stake in Ascent Circuits on January 3. Ascent is an Indian manufacturer of various types of printed circuit boards (PCBs) which are widely used across industries, including in aerospace, defence and consumer electronics.

    After the JV announcement, CLSA has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 4,300 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 17.6%. The brokerage believes that the stock has an attractive entry point due to its 2% decline over the past month on the back of an overall decline in the market. It also states that the company’s attempts to diversify will help its non-RAC (non refrigeration and air conditioning) segment to contribute to 50% of its revenue in the next five years. 

    3. PNC Infratech:

    This road and highway construction company rose by 5.8% in the past week. The price rise comes after the firm received ‘Buy’ calls from analysts. ICICI Direct is optimistic and believes that the company has shown healthy execution and a stable margin trajectory. With asset monetisation done, the brokerage expects that resultant cash will free up capital and drive 10% revenue growth in FY24 and FY25, and 15% in FY26. 

    Under the Vivad se Vishwas scheme, PNC Infratech hopes to receive Rs 766 crore from the authorities for three projects accepted. It recently inked a settlement agreement with the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) to receive Rs 255.4 crore under the scheme. The company has also inked an agreement to sell twelve road projects at approx Rs 9,000 crore. This along with the inflow of cash under the Vivad se Vishwas scheme, will help the company have a cash balance which it can utilize for its growth, going forward. 

    In the past month, PNC Infratech won an order worth Rs 1,174 crore to construct a bypass in Madhya Pradesh. Its current order book stands at Rs 17,380 crore. The company is also targeting order inflows of Rs 12,000 crore in FY25. 

    According to Trendlyne Forecaster, PNC Infratech will report profit growth of 10% YoY in Q4FY24 while revenue will increase by 12% YoY. The company appears in a screener for stocks with consistently highest returns over five years.

    4. Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals:

    This household appliances player has fans in the analyst community, with an estimated upside of 23% on its share price and a consensus of ‘buy’. This is despite the stock seeing a decline in March, falling by over 8%. 

    No one likes a long, hot summer. But it’s good news for a company that sells fans and air coolers. Crompton management has mentioned this weather trend as a positive, and key to demand being strong in the upcoming quarter. It expects the core fan segment to grow in double digits as a result. Another major growth driver is premiumization – Crompton’s premium mix is at just 25%, compared to the industry average of 40%.

    Crompton has faced higher costs due to new changes in energy efficiency rules. It hiked prices by 4-5% in fans over the last few months, which has helped it recover most of the cost increase. And over the long-term, these efficiency rules may work out in its favour – rules are being updated every two years, and the market as a result is increasingly shifting to the organized sector.

    A major drag on Crompton Greaves is Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances. The 2022 acquisition of the kitchen appliances company has not yet been a successful union. Crompton expected BGAL to be EPS accretive by FY24, but the business has underperformed. Revenue was down 6% YoY in Q3FY24, compared to 2% growth for its competitor Sunflame. On the upside, the kitchen industry is growing by double-digits, and Crompton Greaves is restructuring channel sales for BGAL to boost growth.  

    5. KEC International:

    This heavy electrical equipment manufacturer rose by 6.1% over the past week. The company recently won orders worth Rs 2,257 crore across its various businesses which  included new international and domestic orders for its transmission & distribution, oil & gas pipelines, cable verticals, and domestic orders for its civil business.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company's net profit to grow by 6.9X to Rs 203.9 crore in Q4FY24 due to its strong order book and favorable government policies, while revenue is expected to improve by 20.7% YoY. The firm beat the Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimates for Q3FY24 for revenue by 1.2%. However, it missed the net profit estimate by 5% due to challenges in the supply chain and issues around the Red Sea.

    KEC’s year to date (YTD) orders stand at Rs 13,000 crore, in which its transmission & distribution segment contributed to 61% of the total. Its total order book stands at approx Rs 38,000 crore, of which 69% are domestic and the rest 31% are international orders. The company is planning to participate in at least 30-35 renewable transmission tenders, adding another vertical to its business. The management expects execution to pick up going ahead for FY25, with a scale-up in execution in international T&D orders, civil, and oil & gas.

    Vimal Kejriwal, Sr. Vice President of the firm, said, “For Q4, I think that margin guidance looks difficult to achieve today. I don’t say that 7% will become 5%, but there could be some downside depending upon the supply chain part, and whether we are able to get some more supplies or more profitable orders. There will definitely be significant improvement QoQ as interest cost will come down so on the profit before tax (PBT) side, you will see improvement happening.”

    Sharekhan recommends a ‘Buy’ for KEC International with a target price of Rs 850. They say “We expect around 15% revenue growth for FY2024-26E with a sequential improvement in its margins. KEC is trading at a P/E of ~17x its FY2026E EPS, which provides room for upside, given its healthy order backlog and order pipeline and the possibility of margin revival. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised price target (PT) of Rs 850”

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    27 Mar 2024
    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week

    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    1. Varun Beverages:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this non-alcoholic beverages company and Pepsi bottler with a target price of Rs 1,550, indicating an upside of Rs 10.6%. Analysts Preeyam Tolia and Suhanee Shome say, “The company achieved a strong all-round performance, despite a weak and challenging demand environment. It saw a volume growth of 13.9% YoY in  CY23 driven by robust double-digit volume expansion.” 

    The analysts are optimistic about the company’s focus on investment and expansion of manufacturing facilities at Bundi and Jabalpur for juices and value-added dairy products. It is also setting up new plants in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Odisha, which will increase its total capacity by 45%. The company also announced the acquisition of South African-based BevCo. The analysts believe that this acquisition will provide significant synergy benefits along with a market expansion opportunity.

    The analyst expects the company to continue its growth momentum led by expansion in its distribution reach mainly in rural areas with an expected addition of 4-5 lakh outlets per year.

    2. Zydus Lifesciences:

    Sharekhan reiterates a ‘Buy’ call on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 1,100. This indicates an upside of 7.9%. In February, the company’s domestic sales and volumes grew 11.2% YoY and 0.8% YoY, respectively. The analysts note that this growth was driven by key brands like Lipaglyn, Monotax and Amicin. 

    Analysts like Zydus Lifesciences’ move to acquire the Liqmed business, which has 16 products approved in the UK and five new products approved in the US. Liqmeds currently is a profitable business with a small revenue size which is expected to scale up. 

    The analysts say, “Zydus is focusing on specialty products both in India and the US, through its rare and orphan disease portfolio which will aid the firm towards reaching $100 million in the specialty portfolio by FY26.” They expect Zydus Lifesciences’ earnings to grow by 15% CAGR from FY24-26 led by approvals in multiple high-margin businesses like specialty and injectables, leading to double-digit growth in both the US and India.

    3. Granules India:

    ICICI Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ call on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 515, indicating an upside of 18.1%. Analyst Siddhant Khandekar is positive about the company due to its plans to expand its product and therapeutic basket. He says, “The company is focusing more on formulations to drive growth backed by volumes, especially in the US and Europe. It plans to file eight products in the US every year. The analyst likes the firm also due to its backward integration plans with a green technology focus. 

    Khandekar says that despite its recent history of flat revenue growth, Granules India’s margins have improved. He believes that this was a result of 47% YoY growth in formulations to Rs 766 crore, driven by increased volumes in the US across all major products, especially controlled substances. He recommends the call on the back of the company’s compelling risk-reward matrix and its ability to play in its strength areas.

    4. Mahanagar Gas:

    HDFC Securities recommends a ‘Buy’ call on this utilities company with a target price of Rs 1,535. This indicates an upside of 12.8%. Analysts Harshad Katkar, Nilesh Ghuge, Akshay Mane and Prasad Vadnere believe that the company’s recent price correction – due to the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board’s notice on the end of infrastructure exclusivity in Mumbai – is overdone. The analysts say that this notice will not have a material impact on the company’s operations as it would be extremely difficult for any competitor to access significantly cheaper natural gas and set up a new CNG station network at similar costs and locations.

    The analysts are also optimistic about the company due to the recent improvement in new CNG vehicle registrations. New CNG vehicle registrations for February 2024 rose 64% YoY to 6,196 units. They expect the company’s volume growth to accelerate, led by its increased focus on expanding the CNG retail network, its marketing efforts, improvement in CNG vehicle registrations, incremental volume growth from UEPL acquisition, and additional volumes from the industrial segment. They expect a 9% CAGR volume growth over FY24-26.

    5. Prince Pipes & Fittings:

    Geojit BNP Paribas reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this plastic products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 659, indicating an upside of 15.9%. In 9MFY24, the company’s revenue declined by 6.1% YoY, attributed to a drop in realization. However, analyst Anil R believes that going forward, steady real estate sector and plumbing demand will drive volume growth, and he anticipates revenue to grow at an 18.6% CAGR from FY24-26. He expects the margins to remain healthy at 13.4% over FY24-26, supported by lower input prices and a better product mix. 

    Anil R is also optimistic about the company’s acquisition of the Aquel bathware brand. He believes that at peak capacity, the revenue contribution from Aquel would be Rs 120 crore. He concludes, “We anticipate that healthy demand from construction and plumbing, a strong summer, better pricing actions, and stable input prices will drive volumes.”

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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