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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    31 Dec 2025, 03:05PM

    2025 turns selective on returns: Themes outperform while headline indices stall

    By Anagh Keremutt

    The Nifty 500 rose just 5.5% this year, reflecting uneven earnings growth, valuation concerns, and cautious foreign flows. This seemed like a slow, stagnant year for the stock market, despite strong GDP growth.

    The market however, has moved sharply along selective themes. Investors favoured businesses linked to government spending, financial strength, technology, and reforms. As a result, some thematic indices saw strong gains.

    Money poured into public sector banks, defence manufacturers, and metal companies building infrastructure. New-age themes like electric mobility and consumption also saw a boost.

    Nikhil Khandelwal, MD of Systematix Group, said, “Indian equities are entering 2026 with market performance increasingly driven by earnings growth rather than liquidity. This makes sector selection and company fundamentals far more important than broad index exposure.”

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we break down how specific themes outperformed the broader market and why 2025 became a year where "what" you owned mattered far more than simply "being in" the market.

    Financials lead 2025, thanks to structural strength

    In 2025, the Nifty PSU Bank index rose over 28.3% as public sector banks strengthened their balance sheets and reduced non-performing assets (NPAs).

    NPAs of PSU banks dropped sharply from over 9% in FY21 to around 2.6% by March 2025. Capital levels improved and returns steadily increased. Large banks like State Bank of India now offer good earnings visibility, while mid-sized banks are growing faster. This has built confidence across the sector.

    This trend was also visible in the Financial Services 25/50 index, which rose 18% during the year. The Financial Services 25/50 index makes sure no single company dominates. No stock can be more than 25% of the index, and the top two can’t be more than 50%, so it shows the sector fairly.

    Alongside lenders, financial market infrastructure companies also delivered steady gains. The Nifty Capital Markets index rose about 14.5%, mainly through rising participation. NSE trading accounts crossed 24 crore in November 2025, marking an annual increase of 20%. Individual investors accounted for about 18.8% of NSE’s total market capitalization in Q2FY26. This represents a 22-year peak in retail investor ownership.

    Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities said, "This rally has been underpinned by a surge in equity market participation, record-breaking trading volumes, and a vibrant IPO pipeline." He adds, "As more retail investors joined the markets and F&O activity reached record levels, exchanges, brokers, and investment platforms earned more from transaction fees, margin loans, and other services."

    PSU banks and capital market firms formed two sides of the same engine, one supplying credit to the economy, the other channeling savings into financial assets. This combination made financials a core pillar of thematic outperformance in 2025.

    Defence and metals ride higher domestic demand

    Another driver of returns in 2025 was India’s push toward self-reliance and domestic manufacturing. The Nifty India Defence index rose 15.7% in 2025 as defence spending moved from announcements to actual orders, backed by a record Rs 6.8 lakh crore budget.

    Stock gains were led by Garden Reach Shipbuilders, MTAR Technologies and Bharat Electronics which rose 42.4%, 42% and 34.7%, respectively. Their growth was backed by a combined order book value of over Rs 75,700 crore.

    The Nifty Commodities index gained 14.8% in 2025, driven by a rising cycle in global raw material prices. Unlike previous, more cyclical years, 2025 saw a steady climb as global demand for industrial inputs outpaced supply. 

    The Nifty Metals index led the growth within commodities with a 26.2% surge, reaching record highs in late December. The primary driver was a global copper shortage that pushed prices to an all-time high of $12,960 per ton. 

    Hindustan Copper more than doubled in value with an annual gain of 108%, while National Aluminium and Hindalco rose 48% and 43%, respectively, due to their focus on copper and aluminium for the electric vehicle transition. 

    Discretionary spending jumps as consumers favour premium brands

    Beyond finance and infrastructure, 2025 also marked a visible change in how Indians move and spend.

    The Nifty EV & New Age Automotive index rose about 22.5% in 2025, driven by rapid charging infrastructure expansion and falling battery costs. Policy support and lower ownership expenses boosted the entire value chain, from component manufacturers to vehicle platforms.

    Performance was led by Ashok Leyland in the electric commercial vehicles segment, which rose 62%, Maruti Suzuki which rose sharply within passenger cars, and TVS Motor which stood as the top gainer in the electric two-wheeler segment. Eicher Motors also rose sharply as it scaled EV operations for its first electric Royal Enfield model. 

    The Nifty India New Age Consumption index gained around 17.9%, as urban spending shifted from basic staples to "aspirational" lifestyle brands.

    Select turnarounds drove the rally. Nykaa jumped 65% as profits tripled in Q2FY26, helped by tighter costs and growth in its core beauty business. Telecom also staged a recovery, with Vodafone Idea rising 61% after the government converted a large part of its debt into equity, easing bankruptcy fears and enabling a fresh 5G rollout.

    A Moneycontrol report noted, "Household spending on non-essentials has increased, as higher incomes drive consumers toward premium and discretionary purchases."

    Together, modern mobility and new-age consumption reflected bigger structural changes in the economy. Investors backed companies aligned with these shifts, reinforcing the market’s preference for selective themes.

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    The Baseline
    26 Dec 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 26, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 26, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Fortis Healthcare:

    Thishealthcare company jumped 5.4% in two trading sessions after announcing plans toacquire People Tree Hospital in Bengaluru. Fortis Healthcare is buying the 125-bed multi-speciality hospital for Rs 430 crore through its subsidiary, International Hospital.

    Fortis plans to inject an additional Rs 410 crore over three years to expand the hospital. The deal includes an adjacent 0.8-acre land parcel, enabling the hospital to scale from 125 to over 300 beds. MD & CEO Ashutosh Raghuvanshisaid, “The deal complements the company’s cluster-focused growth strategy in Bengaluru with an overall potential to scale up to over 1,500 beds across seven facilities over the next three years.”

    InQ2FY26, revenue climbed 17.3% YoY, while net profit surged 82.4%, powered by its hospital business. Hospital revenue grew 19.3%, fueled by higher bed occupancy, and now makes up 85% of total revenue. Average revenue per bed also improved, thanks to a better speciality mix and strong oncology performance.

    Looking ahead, Fortis’s expansion strategy focuses on adding beds within its existing strongholds. After adding 550 beds in H1FY26, the companytargets another 400–500 beds in FY26 and 300–400 more in FY27, through existing facility upgrades. Key projects include capacity additions in Gurugram, Noida, and Greater Noida, with a new hospital planned for Lucknow.

    The move earned a "Buy"upgrade from JM Financial, which set a target price of Rs 1,093. The brokerage highlights the hospital's location in a supply-strapped area of North-West Bengaluru, perfectly positioned to capture rising demand. Analysts forecast the hospital's revenue will nearly double to Rs 130 crore by FY27 from Rs 75 crore in FY25. They note that with a second tower operational, its contribution could reach Rs 600 crore and achieve healthy margins by FY32. For Fortis overall, revenue and EBITDA are projected to compound annually at 17% and 26% respectively, through FY28.

    2. Phoenix Mills:

    Thisrealty stock gained 3% last week after ICICI Directreiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a higher target price of Rs 2,210, implying an upside of 19%. The brokerage expects demand at Phoenix Mills’ malls to remain firm during the festive and holiday period. Mall spending is growing at close to 20% a year, supported by higher footfalls. 

    The demand trend is supported by traction across major retail categories such as entertainment, fashion, and jewellery. A gradual shift toward premium brands has improved store performance and overall spending quality. Based on current trends, ICICI Direct expects the company to achieve its double-digit growth guidance for the ongoing financial year. This stable operating performance provides a base for long-term expansion.

    Phoenix Mills plans to scale up its portfolio across retail, offices, and hotels over the coming years. New developments and expansion are expected to drive growth. The company’s balance sheet remains strong, supported by healthy cash flow and low debt. Lease renewals across properties also offer scope for higher rents without significant additional investment.

    Recent financials underline this strength. InQ2FY26, revenue rose 22% YoY to Rs 1,115 crore, driven by a recovery in housing sales. Net profit jumped 39%, aided by new mall ramp-ups and tighter cost control in hotels. Looking ahead, Forecaster estimates revenue to rise about 10% in Q3FY26, with a net profit growth of over 40%.

    Management sounds upbeat. CEO Varun Parwalsaid the company “plans to add 1–2 million square feet of retail space” each year, while retail head Rashmi Sen pointed to a stronger focus on experiential food and beverage offerings. CFO Kailash Gupta noted that the “average cost of debt has been cut by nearly 10%”, improving the company’s ability to fund growth while keeping finances stable.

    3. Aadhar Housing Finance:

    This housing finance company rose 1.3% on December 24 after CEO Rishi Anand said AUM is set to grow 20–22% this year, supported by government stimulus and demand from individuals buying homes to live in, rather than speculative purchases by investors focused on resale or rental. He added that H2 is shaping up better than H1, with momentum improving as the year progresses.

    The company sees disbursement growth of over 20% in Q3. Asset quality remains stable, with gross NPAs guided at around 1.1% for FY26, improving from about 1.4% in H1. Management also said recent rate cuts will be passed on to customers by the end of the quarter, alongside a gradual easing in the cost of funds.

    Anand said, “We see enough demand and balance sheet strength to sustain 20–22% growth over the next three years, which should help us double our AUM in about three and a half years.” 

    Separately, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) on November 7 approved Blackstone’s plan to acquire up to 80.2% stake in Aadhar Housing Finance. Analysts say the move could improve access to capital, strengthen governance, and increase competition as global investors step up exposure to Indian housing finance.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects Aadhar Housing Finance’s net profit to rise 19.6% to Rs 1,091 crore in FY26, with revenue growing 31.2%. The stock appears in a screener of companies with expensive valuations, as its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is above the industry average.

    ICICI Direct has a ‘Buy’ rating on Aadhar Housing Finance with a target price of Rs 600. The brokerage highlights the company’s stable performance and disciplined lending, and expects the company to deliver 20% annual growth despite industry challenges.

    4. Granules India:

    The stock of this pharmaceutical company rose by over 6% in the past week after its board approved a massive fundraising plan. The company aims to raise up to Rs 1,462.5 crore through 2.5 crore convertible warrants priced at Rs 585 each, alongside an additional Rs 300 crore via the issue of 51.3 lakh equity shares to non-promoter investors.

    Adding to the momentum, the company received tentative USFDA approval on December 22 for its Amphetamine tablets, which target attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), a market valued at $172 million. CMD Krishna Prasad Chigurupati noted that this move “strengthens Granules’ US generics portfolio” and underscores their commitment to “complex dosage forms and value-driven healthcare solutions.”

    The company's financial health showed a significant turnaround in Q2, posting a net profit of Rs 120.6 crore compared to a loss of Rs 41.4 crore in the same period last year. This recovery was fueled by strong performance in North America and 7% sequential growth in the formulations business. 

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects its net profit to grow by 7.4% in Q3FY26 as the company continues to invest in R&D and its CDMO segment. The stock appears in a screener of companies that have shown relative outperformance as compared to the industry over the past month.

    Management confirmed that its CDMO platform, which it established through its 2025 acquisition of Senn Chemicals AG, is now fully operational, supported by R&D integration with IIT Hyderabad. The platform is expected to hit profitability by Q4FY26. It also expects 1-2 approvals in controlled substance formulations within 2-3 years.

    ICICI Direct has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 660. The brokerage highlighted the acquisition of Senn Chemicals AG, which has opened new revenue streams in peptide development, though it cautioned that pricing pressures in the US and other regulated markets remain a potential risk.

    5. GE Vernova T&D India (GE T&D): 

    This industrial machinery firm climbed 7.4% over the past week after securing a 2,500-megawatt (MW) power transmission order from AESL Projects. Power Grid Corporation of India estimates the project cost at about Rs 19,000 crore. Under the contract, GE T&D will set up a terminal station to transmit power from Khavda to South Olpad.

    Earlier, on December 17, the company also won a maintenance order from Power Grid to refurbish the 2*500 MW transmission lines at Chandrapur, strengthening its position in high-voltage transmission upgrades. 

    Commenting on opportunities in transmission & distribution, MD & CEO Sandeep Zanzaria said, “The government plans to add up to 136 GW of hydro, pumped storage and conventional capacity by 2035, and nearly 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047.” He noted that every new power plant needs new transmission lines, which creates steady demand for the industry.

    To capitalise on this opportunity, GE T&D plans a Rs 800 crore capex over the next three years. This investment will go towards expanding manufacturing capacity at its Vadodara, Padappai, and Hosur plants to meet rising demand from home and abroad.

    In Q2FY26, the company reported strong operational performance. Revenue rose 40% YoY on improved execution across domestic and export orders, while net profit surged 107%. The sharp profit growth reflected a richer product mix and lower employee costs. Both revenue and profit beat Forecaster estimates by a wide margin.

    Yes Securities initiated coverage on GE T&D with an ‘Add’ rating and a target price of Rs 3,200. The brokerage highlights Europe—now contributing about 35% of revenue—as a key driver of export growth, noting that local equipment suppliers are operating at near-full capacity. It expects transformer capacity additions to remain elevated through FY29. The analysts project revenue and net profit CAGRs of 30% and 39% over FY26-28.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    24 Dec 2025
    Nifty 50 in 2025: A market hit by policy and trade pressures

    Nifty 50 in 2025: A market hit by policy and trade pressures

    By Anagh Keremutt

    The Nifty 50 closed 2025 as one of the most unpredictable years in recent history. What began with optimism around steady growth turned over the months into a stop-start market, that struggled to find direction. By year-end, India lagged global peers, with the index delivering a modest 10.1% return.

    That number doesn’t provide the full picture. There were long stretches this year where the market went nowhere, interrupted by sudden, sharp swings that tested investor patience. Unlike the smoother rallies of the past two years, 2025 felt like a constant tug-of-war between hope and fear.

    Market stress was visible across earnings, valuations, and sentiment. Rajiv Batra of JPMorgan summed it up: “Indian equities were under pressure due to weak earnings, soft consumption, high valuations, trade headwinds and a weaker rupee,” noting that “policymakers are now clearly focused on reviving domestic growth.”

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we track how policy actions, global trade shocks, currency pressure, and earnings trends shaped the Nifty’s volatile journey through 2025—and why the year looks like a reset before a potential recovery.

    An odd marriage: A resilient economy, a hesitant market

    One of the biggest contradictions of 2025 was the gap between the economy and the stock market. While equities struggled, the broader economy held up better than expected. India’s services sector, which now contributes about 55% of total economic activity, played a stabilising role. Even as global trade slowed and manufacturing exports came under pressure, demand for services continued to grow.

    The stock market, however, focused more on what could go wrong than right, given already high valuations. In H1CY25, analysts cut Nifty 50 EPS forecasts due to weak urban spending, banks seeing slower growth due to a high base, and soft global IT demand.

    Valuations added another challenge. Stocks were not cheap enough to attract aggressive buying, but not expensive enough to justify extreme optimism. The result was a market stuck between strong long-term fundamentals and uncomfortable short-term realities.

    RBI rate cuts: support came, but slowly

    Policy support became the market’s main anchor in 2025, especially as global conditions worsened. The Reserve Bank of India took a clear pro-growth stance, cutting interest rates aggressively to support liquidity and confidence. Over the year, the RBI reduced the repo rate by a cumulative 125 basis points, taking it from 6.5% to 5.25% by December.

    The first 25 bps cut in February, the RBI’s first rate reduction in five years, was met with caution. Alongside the rate cut, the central bank also lowered its GDP growth forecast by 20 bps to 6.4%, reinforcing concerns around slowing momentum. As investors focused on tariff-related risks and weaker growth signals, the Nifty slipped instead of rallying.

    A second 25 bps cut in April came amid rising trade tensions, leading to an initial dip before a modest recovery led by banks and real estate stocks. June then marked a turning point. A larger 50 bps cut, along with a clear shift in the RBI’s stance, lifted sentiment. Banking stocks surged to record highs as expectations around credit growth and consumption improved.

    By the time the final 25 bps cut arrived in December, the move was largely priced in. The Nifty barely reacted, ending the year in a cautious phase. Meanwhile, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said India is in a rare “goldilocks” phase, with steady growth and controlled inflation. He added that rates are likely to stay low for longer, and any progress in trade talks—especially with the US—could lift growth by around half a percentage point.

    Global trade shocks tested confidence, and exporters adapted

    Global events remained a constant source of stress for Indian markets in 2025, with trade tensions—especially with the US—frequently unsettling investor confidence. In early April, the US imposed 25% tariffs on Indian goods, triggering a sharp fall in the Nifty. Export-heavy sectors were hit the hardest as investors quickly priced in weaker overseas demand.

    The situation worsened in late August when tariffs were raised to 50% after India continued importing Russian oil. The market reacted sharply, with textiles, gems and jewellery stocks seeing heavy selling. These repeated trade shocks have deepened concerns about India’s export outlook and added to the market’s overall nervousness.

    Currency pressure amplified the impact. The Indian Rupee weakened past Rs 90 to the dollar, making it one of the weakest-performing Asian currencies during this period. While a softer rupee can help exporters, it raises costs for energy imports and foreign debt repayments. Dilip Parmar of HDFC Securities noted that the rupee significantly underperformed regional peers, further weighing on sentiment.

    Yet exporters did not stand still. Companies began shifting focus to alternative markets, and the data reflected this adjustment. Exports to China jumped 31% YoY in September–October, while shipments to Saudi Arabia and parts of Europe also increased. These moves helped cushion some of the damage from US tariffs.

    By December, sentiment improved as talk of a potential US–India trade deal gained traction. The possibility of easing tariffs in exchange for higher Indian purchases of US energy helped calm markets and offered hope that the worst of the trade pressure may be nearing an end.

    Tax relief gives consumption a boost

    Alongside monetary support, fiscal measures played an important role. The Union Budget 2025 raised the personal income tax exemption limit to Rs 12 lakh, putting more money directly into household hands. While broader market reaction was muted on budget day, consumer-focused stocks responded positively in the weeks that followed.

    JP Morgan estimated that the tax relief could add around 0.6% to GDP over time, gradually lifting consumption. The impact became more visible after the rollout of GST 2.0 in September. The tax structure was simplified into two main slabs—5% and 18%—replacing a complex system that businesses had long criticised.

    The immediate effect was seen in consumer durables. Products like air conditioners and large televisions moved from the 28% bracket to the 18% bracket, leading to price cuts of 8–9%. Retailers reported a noticeable jump in footfalls and sales. To offset revenue loss, the government retained a steep 40% tax on luxury items such as premium SUVs.

    Earnings bring a turning point

    After months of uncertainty, October saw a change in the market's tone. The Nifty rose 4.5%, its strongest monthly gain of 2025, not due to policy announcements, but because earnings were better than feared. The steady stream of downgrades slowed, suggesting profits may have finally bottomed out.

    Banks and auto companies led the recovery, reporting stable demand and improved cost control. The results were not spectacular, but they were “less bad” than expected—and that was enough. Motilal Oswal and other brokerages noted that the worst phase of earnings pressure appeared to be behind.

    The October rally did not erase the damage of the year, but it shifted the investor mindset. As 2025 ended, the focus moved away from constant downside risks toward the possibility of a gradual recovery in 2026, making the year look less like a downturn and more like an overdue reset.

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    The Baseline
    23 Dec 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 23, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 23, 2025

    By Abdullah Shah

    1. Vishal Mega Mart:

    Motilal Oswal retains its ‘Buy’ call on this retail store chain with a higher target price of Rs 170 per share, an upside of 24.3%. Despite an 8.2% drop in the stock price last quarter, analysts Aditya Bansal and Avinash Karumanchi see strength in the stock. Vishal Mega Mart benefits from its diverse product mix, budget-friendly starting prices, major contribution from its own brands, and an efficient cost structure. These give it an edge over both offline and online value competitors.

    Management remains confident in achieving double-digit same-store sales growth in FY26, driven by its unique offerings, with around 75% of revenue from its own brands, entry-level pricing, and a loyal customer base. Analysts add that the company's focus on offering premium products helps it capture a larger share of customer spending, particularly during festive seasons.

    Bansal and Karumanchi point out that South India's profitability matches the national average, despite lower sales volume, thanks to strong demand for apparel. Encouraged by this performance, the company plans to open more stores in South India. They project Vishal Mega Mart will achieve a 20% revenue CAGR and a 30% net profit CAGR from FY26-28.

    2. Waaree Energies:

    Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this solar module manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 4,260, an upside of 37.6%. Its share price has fallen 2.8% over the last month and 10.4% over the three months. Waaree's planned $30 million investment in United Solar Holding (USH) drives this recommendation. It grants Waaree access to a 1 lakh tonnes-per-year polysilicon plant in Oman. This supports partial backward integration in its solar supply chain.

    The Oman plant offers cost benefits, lower energy expenses, and favourable trade terms with markets such as the US and India. This will help Waaree meet the 10-gigawatt wafer-ingot demand for its Nagpur facility. Management expects the plant to begin operations soon and reach full capacity within a year. This ensures long-term supply security and reduces reliance on Chinese polysilicon.

    Waaree also added 5.1 gigawatts of module capacity in Gujarat during Q3, strengthening its domestic manufacturing. Analysts Sabri Hazarika and Arya Patel state that the USH investment will enhance scale, integrate the supply chain, and support global expansion. They expect this step to improve margins gradually. They also see Waaree well positioned to profit from rising global solar demand and clearer supply prospects.

    3. Lumax Auto Technologies: 

    ICICI Direct reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this auto parts & equipment producer with a target price of Rs 1,800 per share, an upside of 14.3%. Analysts Shashank Kanodia and Bhavish Doshi see benefits from the company’s strong position in the passenger vehicle (PV) ancillary segment, gains from premium products, and a robust order book.

    Management notes that the PV segment generated 55% of the company’s sales in H1FY26, boosted by the acquisition of PV interior supplier International Automotive Components (IAC) India. Analysts add that this acquisition gave Lumax Auto’s product range a boost, particularly in plastic interior modules. It has also expanded business with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Mahindra & Mahindra.

    With a 40% share of EV platforms in its Rs 1,360 crore order book and increasing content per vehicle, the analysts believe the company is well positioned to profit from volume growth and premiumisation among leading OEMs. Kanodia and Doshi write that GST 2.0 reforms will drive two-wheeler segment growth, led by volume recovery. They expect the company to deliver an 18.1% revenue CAGR and a 30.6% net profit CAGR from FY26-28.

    4. Aditya Infotech: 

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this IT networking equipment manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 1,800 per share, a 15.9% upside. The stock has dropped 6.9% over the past month. Analysts Aniruddha Joshi and Manoj Menon believe Aditya Infotech will continue to gain market share, driven by stronger brand recognition and expanded manufacturing.

    Management highlights increased brand-building investments. This includes expanding CP Plus Galaxy stores, which are their specialised outlets for advanced surveillance products, and more advertising. Analysts add that this brand push is crucial to attract consumers and support premium product offerings. The company's partnership with Qualcomm for AI-enabled video security solutions has differentiated its products and improved customer retention.

    Joshi and Menon believe the company's planned capacity expansion in Kadapa and a new North India manufacturing unit will improve service speed, cut logistics costs, and enable faster market entry. Analysts add that successful partnerships with semiconductor players will boost product performance and long-term cost efficiencies. They expect the company to deliver revenue and net profit CAGRs of 24.3% and 65.2%, respectively, from FY26-28.

    5. Shriram Finance: 

    Axis Direct reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this NBFC, with a target price of Rs 1,125, an upside of 17.5%. Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya and Abhishek Pandya cite MUFG Bank's planned strategic investment as the main driver of this positive outlook. MUFG intends to buy a 20% stake for roughly Rs 841 per share via a preferential allotment. 

    This Rs 39,618 crore deal marks India's largest foreign direct investment in its financial services sector. The capital infusion will strengthen Shriram Finance's fundamentals. It is also expected to fuel faster growth in areas like new commercial vehicles and MSMEs. Management believes the partnership will boost capital reserves, simplify fundraising, and improve governance. MUFG-appointed directors will help guide the company's strategy.

    Vaidya and Pandya expect lower funding costs, possibly due to a credit rating upgrade. If the deal closes in FY27, Shriram Finance's net worth could nearly double. They foresee a 17% CAGR in assets under management from FY26-28 and margins improving by 80-90 basis points in FY27-28. Although equity dilution might limit return on equity, analysts predict overall returns will rise due to better profitability.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    19 Dec 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 19, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 19, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. 360 One Wam:

    This capital markets company rose 1.5% on December 18 after Motilal Oswal reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a lower target price of Rs 1,350, implying an 18.5% upside. 360 ONE operates in wealth and asset management, catering to high-net-worth individuals (HNIs), ultra-HNIs, family offices, and institutions.

    Motilal Oswal’s view is driven by India’s expanding base of people with fat wallets – the HNI and UHNIs, which benefits 360 ONE. More than 70% of its revenue comes from recurring fees, which provides earnings stability. Its asset management business is expected to grow its AUM to around Rs 1.3 lakh crore by FY28. Overall, the company’s consolidated revenue and net profit are expected to grow at around 21% CAGR through FY28.

    The company’s recent deals have added scale and widened its range of services. The ET Money acquisition in June 2024 brought in about Rs 2,350 crore of assets and strengthened its digital reach. Broking firm B&K Securities, acquired in early 2025, adds roughly Rs 45 crore per quarter in transaction revenue. The UBS Wealth India deal contributed over Rs 5,200 crore in assets and improved access to offshore products.

    The expansion is showing up in the numbers. In Q2FY26, revenue rose 32% YoY to Rs 813 crore, mainly due to higher recurring income. Net profit grew 28%, though margins slipped slightly because of higher technology spending and the impact of recent acquisitions.

    CEO Karan Bhagat said, “We expect net inflows of 10–12% to continue over the next two years, supported by stable markets and higher productivity from new relationship managers. Transaction and brokerage revenue should grow 8–12%, even as the focus shifts to recurring income.” He added that the HNI business is on track to break even by Q3–Q4 next year as client additions and monetisation improve.

    2. Indraprastha Gas (IGL):

    The stock of this non-electrical utilities company climbed over 5% in the past week, driven by an upgrade from global brokerage Nomura, and a new single natural gas transportation tariff announced by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB). Effective January 2026, the new structure caps transportation charges at Rs 54 per MMBtu (metric million British thermal unit() for short distances of up to 300 km, and at Rs 102.9 per MMBtu for longer distances. This change is expected to reduce sourcing costs and help stabilise margins, particularly in markets located further from supply hubs.

    Positive momentum was further supported by global gas prices hitting their lowest levels since March 2024, with Asia spot prices dropping to approximately $9.4 per MMBtu. These lower input costs could directly bolster unit margins if retail prices remain steady.

    Financial performance remained solid, with Q2 revenue rising 8.9% YoY as volumes grew 3.2% to 9.2 million metric standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd). Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects IGL’s revenue to grow by 3.6% in Q3 on the back of tariff rationalisation and lower value added tax (VAT) on domestic gas sourced from Gujarat. The stock appears in a screener of companies which have shown relative outperformance compared to the industry over the past week.

    Management has guided for volume growth of 6-7% for FY26. MD K. K. Chatiwal noted that H1 capex reached Rs 580 crore, with full-year plans of up to Rs 1,400 crore for their PNG infrastructure segment. He mentioned that the company is also looking at “another maybe Rs 700-800 crore” for potential diversification projects.

    Nomura upgraded the stock to a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 230, citing an improving risk-reward profile. The brokerage believes margins will find support from lower taxes and reduced transmission fees, while the completion of operational transitions should allow demand and volume growth to recover.

    3. Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals:

    This household appliances player rose 2.6% on December 18 after Motilal Oswal initiated coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 350 per share. The brokerage sees Crompton transitioning from a traditional electricals manufacturer to a brand-led, innovation-driven consumer company under its Crompton 2.0 strategy.

    The brokerage believes the company's increased investment in advertising and promotions, combined with its focus on strengthening the brand and product portfolio, will be key to its future growth.

    Crompton Greaves reported a mixed picture for its second quarter. Revenue edged up 1% YoY to Rs 1,916 crore, driven by higher sales volumes. However, its net profit took a hit, falling 43% to Rs 71.2 crore due to higher expenses and raw material costs.

    The company's Butterfly appliances business performed well, while its electricals business faced pressures due to cooler than expected weather conditions. Crompton’s acquisition of Butterfly, where it now holds a 75% stake, has significantly strengthened its kitchen appliances portfolio.

    Meanwhile, Crompton’s solar rooftop business has taken off, winning nearly Rs 500 crore in orders and giving the new division strong momentum. The company added that its solar pumps business is growing over 100% YoY, as its domestic market share climbed from 6% to 8%.

    Management is betting big on this solar division, believing it could become the company’s second-largest business over the next few years. CFO Kaleeswaran Arunachalam said, “We are targeting Rs 2,000 crore in revenue from our solar business over the next 18–24 months, supported by recent large contract wins and a focus on expansion.”

    Motilal Oswal expects a dip in earnings this year, mostly due to continued cool weather, but sees a clear path to improving profits and profitability in the medium term. The brokerage estimates a revenue CAGR of about 8% over FY26–28.

    4. Leela Palaces Hotels & Resorts:

    Thishotel chain surged 4.8% on December 16 after ICICI Securitiesinitiated a ‘Buy’ rating, with a 45.7% upside. The brokerage highlighted Leela's position to capitalise on India's shortage of new luxury hotel developments, and a widening demand-supply gap.

    According to HVS Anarock, luxury hotel demand in India is set to soar 13.7% annually between FY26-28, while supply will lag at 8.8%. This supply crunch is expected to boost room rates and occupancy for existing hotels.

    Leela’s portfolio is perfectly positioned to capture this trend. In FY25, the company's average revenue per available room (RevPAR) stood at Rs 15,306, 1.4 times higher than the luxury segment's industry average. The companycurrently operates 14 hotels with 4,090 rooms, blending owned and managed properties.

    A pivotal strategic move came in late 2025 with Leela’s leap onto the global stage. In November, the companyacquired a 25% stake in the Dubai entity that owns Sofitel The Palm for Rs 437 crore. The property is set to be rebranded as a Leela, marking its first international flagship.

    CEO Anuraag Bhatnagar projects major growth andsaid, “With a strong pipeline of over 1,500 rooms, we are well-positioned to capture this opportunity as we target approximately Rs 2,000 crore in EBITDA by FY30.” Leela is investing Rs 654.6 crore in room renovations and plans to surpass 5,000 operational rooms by FY30.

    InQ2FY26, revenue climbed 12% YoY, fueled by higher occupancy and room rates. Owned hotels led this charge with 13% RevPAR growth.

    However, the company's significant concentration risk is weighing on investor sentiment. With over 90% of revenue coming from just five properties, the company is vulnerable to regional disruptions. The stock has also faced headwinds since its debut, trading 5.3% below its June 2 IPO price.

    5. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS):

    This IT consulting & software company’s stock rose 2.8% over the past week after acquiring Coastal Cloud Holdings and delivering positive updates at its Investor Day 2025. On December 11, TCS’ board approved acquiring 100% of US Salesforce consulting firm Coastal Cloud Holdings and its subsidiaries for $700 million (approximately Rs 6,320.2 crore). This follows another acquisition in October of US-based Salesforce firm, ListEngage, for $72.8 million (approximately Rs 657.3 crore). 

    On December 18, TCS discussed its evolution from a digital service provider to an AI-focused technology services provider. The company reported $1.5 billion in annualised AI services revenue, up 16% QoQ. The firm also announced plans to develop a sovereign AI data centre with up to 1 GW capacity, projecting capital expenditures of $6-7 billion over 5-7 years.

    Speaking to analysts, TCS’ MD & CEO, K Krithivasan, said, “We aim to achieve an EBIT margin of 26-28% over the next few years, by shifting our revenue mix towards higher margin services and a focus on delivery execution.”

    However, Motilal Oswal noted that management's higher-margin goals indicate more growth potential than guided.

    The brokerage maintained its ‘Buy’ call on TCS, setting a target price of Rs 4,400 per share, a 34.1% upside. The brokerage believes the company’s growth visibility will improve as AI adoption moves from pilot programs to scaled, revenue-generating deployments. It expects the company to deliver a revenue CAGR of 6.7% over FY26-28.

    In Q2FY26, TCS’s revenue grew 2.4% QoQ to Rs 66,666 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 0.7%. Improvements across banking, financial services & insurance, communication, media & technology segments supported revenue growth. However, net profit declined 5.4% due to higher finance, employee benefits, and license expenses.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    18 Dec 2025
    Global aviation is growing, but competition is not

    Global aviation is growing, but competition is not

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    Flying has become a routine event for millions. Planes are full, airports are busy, and most airlines are finally profitable again after years of recovery. Overall, the global aviation industry looks strong.

    But behind these headlines, the industry is seeing some fundamental changes. In many of the largest countries, aviation no longer has a wide field of competitors. Instead, capacity is increasingly concentrated among a handful of large airlines. In some countries, three or four airlines share the skies. In many others, one airline holds a commanding majority share, with another acting as a distant second. 

    This structure matters because of how it is impacting travellers. People catch a lot of flights, but no one actually likes flying. After the stress of airport security checks, where your favourite shampoo is thrown out if it is in the wrong sized bottle, travellers have to deal with tight legroom, uncomfortable seats, and terrible food. 

    Where several strong airlines operate, passengers have choice, and at least some options in quality, legroom, and luggage policies. But when one or two airlines control most of the capacity, choices and safety nets disappear, and even a single operational issue can cause turbulence across the entire system, triggering cancellations, delays, and sudden fare spikes for everyday flyers.

    India experienced this first-hand in December 2025. Operational issues at IndiGo, which carries the majority of domestic passengers, caused widespread cancellations. With no large alternative airline to absorb the shock, passengers were stranded, ticket prices on some routes skyrocketed, and the government had to impose fare caps.

    “IndiGo’s size has grown to the point where operational setbacks pose systemic risk. If IndiGo or Air India gets into trouble, there will be mayhem in Indian aviation. The government needs to reduce jet fuel taxes and encourage more competition,” said Harsh Vardhan, chairman of Starair Consulting.

    Too much flying power, too few players

    Some aviation markets today are so dominated by one or two carriers that little room remains for smaller rivals.

    India is the clearest example. IndiGo and the Air India Group together control nearly all domestic flights. IndiGo’s growth improved domestic connectivity and helped keep fares competitive, yet this dominance also made the system fragile. 

    Policymakers in India have acknowledged this challenge. After the IndiGo fiasco, Civil Aviation Minister K Rammohan Naidu remarked, “We need at least five airlines with around 100 aircraft each, so the country is not dependent on one or two carriers. This is essential to avoid monopoly and duopoly.”

    Australia faces a similar problem. The Qantas Group (Qantas Airlines + Jetstar) and Virgin Australia control almost all domestic travel, with smaller carriers barely registering. Recent reports show that these two airlines control over 98% of domestic traffic, leaving passengers with few alternatives and limited bargaining power.

    Canada presents another version of the problem. Air Canada and WestJet dominate different regions, and limit direct competition on many routes. A 2025 review pointed to high airport fees and regulatory barriers that protect the existing airlines. This has kept fares elevated and reduced passenger choice.

    The UK, while more competitive than these markets, still feels the impact of concentration. EasyJet holds about 47% of total capacity, making it the largest carrier by a wide margin. Rivals like Ryanair and Jet2 provide alternatives, but when major airlines face disruptions, last-minute fares can still rise sharply during peak travel periods.

    More airline companies mean fewer system-wide failures

    Markets with a few strong competitors—rather than just two—handle crises much better.

    The United States is the best example for a non-monopolistic aviation market. Four airlines — American, Delta, United, and Southwest — share most of the market. No single airline dominates completely. This balance prevents system-wide collapse.

    North American carriers are competing by boosting premium offerings, with ~90% of widebodies now having premium economy. They are now fighting for customers based on reliability and comfort, not just the cheapest ticket.

    Brazil fits here better than it appears at first glance. LATAM Brasil is the largest carrier with roughly 38% market share, but it does not control the market outright. GOL Linhas and Azul together ensure no single airline can dictate pricing unchecked. While competition on major routes is not fierce, the presence of three sizable players provides more stability than a two-airline system.

    The UAE represents a different form of oligopoly. Emirates and Etihad dominate the market, but they compete globally rather than just domestically. Emirates is owned by Dubai’s Investment Corporation, alongside flydubai, which serves regional and domestic routes. Etihad is wholly owned by Abu Dhabi’s ADQ sovereign wealth fund.

    State backing provides patient capital and strategic staying power, enabling both carriers to compete aggressively with global hubs like Qatar Airways, Lufthansa, and Turkish Airlines. The mix of a few dominant players, strong state support, and layered domestic competition makes the UAE airline market uniquely competitive.

    When rails outspeed the skies

    Aviation is also more balanced in markets where high-speed rail shares the load.

    China’s airline market appears competitive, but high-speed rail has reshaped travel patterns. For journeys under 800 km, trains are faster and easier than flying. On the Beijing–Shanghai corridor, high-speed rail captured about 34% of airline passengers. This forces airlines to focus on longer routes and limits their pricing power on domestic sectors.

    Japan looks like a classic two-airline market, which usually means high prices. But Japan is different. The Shinkansen bullet train keeps airlines in check. On routes like Tokyo–Osaka, trains carry over 80% of travellers. Airlines have to offer better service and sharper prices just to stay relevant.

    This competition between trains and planes creates a rare result: high reliability and great service without crazy prices. It proves that the best check on an airline monopoly might not be another plane, but a fast train.

    What does this mean for travellers?

    Rising passenger numbers can hide deeper problems in aviation markets. When most flights are controlled by just a few airlines, even minor disruptions affect the entire system. For travellers, this often means higher fares and minimal options when flights are cancelled or delayed.

    Governments are finally taking notice. Fare caps in India and competition reviews in Europe show increasing concern that aviation needs backup options, not just bigger airlines. As travel demand keeps rising, stable air travel will depend on policies that support real competition — through more airlines, easier airport access, and alternatives like high-speed trains.

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    The Baseline
    17 Dec 2025
    Are Indian consumers running out of choices?

    Are Indian consumers running out of choices?

    By Swapnil Karkare

    Early December, usually a great time to travel, became a national nightmare this year across Indian airports. As IndiGo flights across the country were cancelled, the best laid plans fell apart. One student missed an engineering hackathon they were preparing for over the last several months. Many travellers missed exams, weddings, funerals, and long planned for international vacations.  Suitcases disappeared into the black hole IndiGo called the "check-in counter", so people couldn't even just give up and go back home. 

    I escaped the chaos only because I was flying to Siliguri on a different airline, for my sixth wedding anniversary. But I saw the chaos at the terminal. The helpless ground staff stood there absorbing it all, one complaint at a time.

    The silver lining, if we try to find one, is that people have now started talking about monopolies in Indian industry. India has several sectors where market power is concentrating very quickly into a few hands. If we don’t course-correct, it is very likely that the “IndiGo moment” will repeat elsewhere.


    Competition is good, economists say. But the stock market doesn't reward it

    Economists agree that competition in industries lowers prices, improves quality, and gives consumers more power. But investors actually prefer the opposite. The stock market loves companies with a “moat”: businesses that are so dominant, and with such high entry barriers that new players don't stand a chance. Warren Buffett for example, lovesCoca-Cola, Moody’s and Apple, companies that have either absorbed or killed most of their competitors, and are hyper-dominant in their sectors.

    Palantir's Peter Thiel openly says that "competition is for losers". Even the economist Joseph Schumpeter, who gave us the idea of “creative destruction” as new companies replace old ones, eventually concluded that monopolies might be capitalism’s natural end state.

    Consumers want choice, but markets reward dominance.


    India is seeing a concentration of power across sectors

    To measure competition, economists use the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). A score below 1,500 means a competitive economy. Between 1,500 and 2,500 suggests moderate concentration. Anything above 2,500 is monopolistic and sets off alarm bells.

    For the first time in over a decade, India has entered the“highly concentrated”danger zone. The HHI climbed from 1,980 in FY15 to 2,167 in FY20, and has crossed 2,532 in FY25.

    Many Indian sectors now have a few companies with significant market power.  Telecom for example, has become a slugfest between Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio. Aviation has IndiGo and Air India dominating. In steel, four companies control more than half the market. And in cement, the Aditya Birla Group and Adani Group now have more than 50% of the market, and are still acquiring smaller players. 

    The concentration of market power gives companies pricing power, forcing consumers to pay more. It can also quickly reduce product options and quality. 


    This is just the tip of the iceberg

    Few sectors in India show the problem better than aviation. India's domestic airfares were 43% higher in early 2024 than in 2019. In Asia, only Vietnam saw a bigger jump.

    Two decades ago, India had close to ten airlines. Today, IndiGo and Air India control nearly 90% of the market. On many routes, there’s only one choice, usually IndiGo, which makes it the default price setter.

    Airports are also increasingly controlled by just two private players, Adani and GMR, alongside the Airports Authority of India. Adani’s rapid expansion across airports, ports, and even lounges wiped out Dreamfolks’ once-dominant lounge business almost overnight.

    History has a warning for us. The US spent the early 20th century breaking up Standard Oil, regulating railroad barons like Vanderbilt and Gould, and placing utilities under strict oversight. The US government cracked down after these monopolies raised prices, shut out competitors, and held entire regional markets in the US hostage.

    India appears to be learning that lesson now, the hard way.


    A global pattern

    Globally, the pattern right now is 'bigger is better'. In the US, monopolies are making a comeback. Markups — the gap between price and cost —have jumped nearly 3X since the 1980s as industries have consolidated and companies feel free to increase prices. 

    For example, Bayer, Corteva, Syngenta, and BASF dominate global seeds and fertilisers. A few players control pharma generics and vaccines; VisaandMastercard handle 80% of card payments, China’s Alipayand WeChat Pay control 95% of QR payments within China, and even India’s open UPI has created two dominant apps, PhonePe and Google Pay.

    This pattern of fewer players, higher profits and weaker competition is now visible across many industries globally, pointing to more “winner-take-most” markets. We must worry about it as we, the consumers, are the ones paying a hefty price.


    Should India dismantle its giants?

    Former RBI Deputy Governor Viral Acharya has been sounding the alarm on monopolistic markets for years. His research shows that market concentration in India surged after 2015, driven by an industrial strategy favouring “national champions.”

    By 2021, India’s biggest business groups controlled nearly 18% of assets in non-financial sectors, up from 10% in the early 1990s. Meanwhile, the next five largest groups saw their share halve. The dominant companies didn’t just crowd out small players, they squeezed out other large competitors as well.

    One option, Acharya argues, is dismantling such groups where necessary. Recently, former Maharashtra CM Prithviraj Chavan and the President of the Federation of Indian Pilots, Captain C S Randhawa, urged the government to break IndiGo into at least two separate airlines.

    China offers an instructive example. In the 1980s, it split its state airline into six entities. Three major airlines—Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern—emerged. Even today, together they control less than half the market.


    Can India reverse this trend?

    A monopoly, like a weed, is difficult to remove once it's entrenched. Dominant companies will fight, lobby, and pay the media to make their arguments for them. India needs a Competition Commission that can act before market power turns into abuse. The IndiGo episode should be a broader wake-up call.

    Currently, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) intervenes only after abuse such as overpricing, blocking rivals, or distorting markets. In sectors like aviation, digital platforms, logistics, and infrastructure, that often means that they step in too late, after rivals are weakened and consumer choice has already shrunk.

    The solution lies in reform. Some work has already begun. A Standing Committee report submitted in August backs ex-ante rules, stricter scrutiny of acquisitions, faster enforcement, fewer court delays, and a stronger CCI with better funding and expertise. It also calls for reviving a National Competition Policy, so that encouraging competition explicitly shapes government policy across sectors. Now it remains to be seen that if our current billionaire businessmen will let this happen. 

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    The Baseline
    16 Dec 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 16, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 16, 2025

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Maruti Suzuki India: 

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this passenger vehicle manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 18,170 per share, an upside of 11.1%. Analyst Sanchit Karekar expects Maruti Suzuki to grow revenue and profitability, driven by its strong leadership, expanding utility vehicle (UV) portfolio, and improving product mix.

    Management is aiming to expand its domestic market share to 50% from 41% currently, supported by the Victorius SUV launch. They expect to exceed their FY26 export guidance of 4 lakh units, having already exported 2.1 lakh in H1FY26. Exports jumped 42% YoY in Q2FY26, offsetting weaker domestic growth and securing Maruti a 45.4% share in India’s passenger vehicle exports.

    Karekar adds that reduced GST for small passenger vehicles (PV) – dropping to 18% from 28% – will boost demand in this segment. Growth in the small PV and UV segments, plus presence across all powertrains (internal combustion, hybrid, CNG, and electric vehicles), will drive Maruti’s market share growth. He expects Maruti to deliver a 10% revenue CAGR and an 11% net profit CAGR over FY26-28.

    2. Netweb Technologies India: 

    ICICI Securities initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this software company with a target price of Rs 4,110, an upside of 25.3%. This is an AI play – analysts Seema Nayak and Ruchi Mukhija highlight that Netweb is directly benefiting from India’s rising demand for high-end computing in AI, data centres, and advanced research.

    Netweb offers an end-to-end stack in India: system design, manufacturing, installation, and software support. Its fastest-growing segments, high-performance computing (HPC), AI systems, and hyper-converged infrastructure, achieved a strong 77% CAGR from FY22-25, now contributing nearly 90% of quarterly revenue.

    Demand remains strong, driven by increasing AI infrastructure investments and major government projects. Partnerships with global chip leaders like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel have given the company early access to next-gen processors. Government demand drives growth, making up about 43% of revenue, including the IndiaAI Mission and National Supercomputing Mission. 

    Nayak and Mukhija estimate a Rs 2,180 crore revenue opportunity from IndiaAI projects. They expect revenue and net profit to grow almost 60% annually from FY26-FY28, with stable margins. 

    3. Berger Paints (India): 

    Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades this paint company to a ‘Buy’ rating, with a target price of Rs 628, an upside of 16.3%. Analyst Antu Eapan Thomas notes Berger Paints shows early signs of demand recovery after a weak first half, where it was impacted by a long monsoon and stiff competition.

    Q2FY26 revenue rose 1.9% YoY to Rs 2,827.5 crore. Volumes grew 8.8%, indicating steady ground-level demand, despite weak value growth. Profitability declined as EBITDA fell 18.9% YoY to Rs 352 crore, and margins dropped to 12.5%, mainly due to higher costs. Management expects margins to improve in the coming quarters, driven by soft raw material prices and an improving product mix.

    Thomas anticipates a stronger second half, boosted by better weather, festive demand, and the release of postponed re-painting projects. Berger continues expanding its retail reach, opening over 1,600 stores and installing more than 5,500 tinting machines in the first half, targeting 10,000 by year-end. He forecasts an 8.4% revenue CAGR and a 6.3% net profit CAGR over FY26-27.

    4. Sandhar Technologies: 

    Emkay initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this small-cap auto parts manufacturer with a target price of Rs 825, an upside of 49.5%. Analysts Chirag Jain and Nandan Pradhan see the company entering a growth phase after completing a multi-year capacity expansion. Peak capital spending is over; capex will drop to 4.5-5% of revenue from FY26-28, down from 9% during FY21-25.

    Management expects the long capex cycle to conclude by March 2026, with only three projects remaining: Sandhar Components integration, Pune aluminium die-casting, and Pune cabins. The company also rules out aggressive overseas expansion, planning new capacity only as utilisation improves. Its overseas business should break even by Q4. From FY26 onward, profitability is expected to improve, supported by lower capital spending, regular debt repayments, and disciplined working capital management.

    Jain and Pradhan believe smart locks, which generate higher revenue than traditional mechanical locks, will support margin improvement. Sandhar’s EV-related products have already started contributing to revenue in H1FY26 and are expected to grow further. They forecast a 14% revenue CAGR and 20% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-28.

    5. Vedanta:

    ICICI Direct retains its ‘Buy’ call on this aluminium products manufacturer with a higher target price of Rs 650 per share, an upside of 14.1%. Analysts Shashank Kanodia and Manisha Kesari remain positive on Vedanta, citing surging non-ferrous metal prices and expansion in India’s aluminium and zinc segments.

    Management aims for 3.1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) smelting capacity by FY28, supported by debottlenecking the Jharsuguda plant. It also plans to expand alumina capacity to 6 MTPA, driven by commissioning the 1.5 MTPA Lanjigarh plant and developing captive bauxite and coal mines. Analysts believe the company will benefit from rising non-ferrous metal prices, with aluminium and zinc prices increasing 7% and 13% QoQ, respectively.

    Kanodia and Kesari add that its subsidiary, Hindustan Zinc, will benefit from surging silver prices (up 32% QoQ). Hindustan Zinc is India’s largest silver producer, with a refining capacity of 800 MT. Higher silver prices will drive profitability, as silver is a low-cost by-product. Analysts expect Vedanta to deliver a 13.7% revenue CAGR and a 30.7% net profit CAGR over FY26-27.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    12 Dec 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 12, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 12, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Gujarat Fluorochemicals (GFL):

    Thisspecialty chemicals company rose 3.2% last week after the International Finance Corp (IFC) invested about Rs 450 crore (~$50 million) in itssubsidiary, GFCL EV Products. GFL operates in chemicals and specialty materials used in sectors such as oil & gas, electronics, EVs, and green energy.

    The IFC investment will help GFCL EV set up a fully integrated battery materials unit, covering battery chemicals, cathode materials, and binders. This strengthens GFL’s role in the global battery supply chain and expands its presence in India’s battery materials market.

    Deven Chokseyraised GFL’s target price to Rs 3,798, indicating an upside of 9.6%, highlighting the firm’s battery materials business as a key driver. GFL is one of the few non-China integrated producers of LiPF6, a crucial battery ingredient. Plants for these materials have been commissioned, with commercial sales expected from Q4FY26.

    GFL’s growth comes from high-margin fluoropolymers (63% of Q2FY26 revenue), fluorochemicals, and rising demand for R32 refrigerant. InQ2FY26, revenue rose 2% YoY, mainly due to fluoropolymers and higher chloromethane prices. EBITDA margin improved by 525 bps to 30% as the company sold more higher-value grades of fluoropolymers.

    Some hurdles remain, including temporary volume impacts from US tariffs on certain fluoropolymers and the R125 refrigerant. Fluorochemical revenue slipped 15% due to lower R-22 sales, a widely used refrigerant being phased out globally. The battery chemicals business is still pre-revenue and posted an EBITDA loss of Rs 17 crore.

    CEO Bir Kapoor expects the battery chemicals business to break even in FY27. He says, “FY28 should be a major scale-up year as new capacity comes online and customers approve the products”. Business Head Rajiv Rao added that the initial focus will be on exports outside China, leveraging India’s cost advantage in building lithium iron phosphate (LFP) plants.

    2. Suzlon Energy:

    Thiswind energy company jumped 5.7% in three trading sessions after unveiling on December 4plans for three AI-powered wind blade factories to meet surging domestic demand.

    Co-Founder Girish Tantisaid the new units will be strategically placed near project sites to slash logistics costs. Two plants are planned for Gujarat and Karnataka; a third location is being scouted. The facilities will be funded internally, falling within the company’s annual capital expenditure of Rs 500–550 crore. These additions will expand the company’s network to 18 factories, creating India's largest smart wind manufacturing setup. 

    InQ2FY26, its net profit jumped 6.4x YoY to Rs 1,279.4 crore, boosted by a Rs 718.2 crore deferred tax credit. Excluding the tax credit, net profit still soared 179%. Record wind turbine deliveries drove revenue 83.7% higher to Rs 3,897.3 crore. 

    The company entered the second half with a massive 6.2-gigawatt (GW) order book, securing two years of revenue visibility. It aims for a 50:50 split between engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts and equipment-supply (non-EPC) deals by FY28. 

    Group CEO JP Chalasanisaid, "You will start seeing us announcing more and more EPC contracts starting from maybe the Q4." Management projects India will add 6 GW of new wind capacity in FY26 and is confident Suzlon can capture 25% of that market, or 1,500 MW.

    Despite a positive long-term outlook, Suzlon’s stock hasfallen by 21.6% over the past six months. The decline followed the promoter group’s Junesale of around a 1.5% stake, whichadded selling pressure and prompted profit-booking after a 1,277% rally over the past five years. Investors also grewcautious as a large deferred tax credit boosted recent profit growth, while project execution fell short of market expectations.

    Following the announcement, ICICI Securitiesreiterated its ‘Buy’ rating, projecting a 43.3% upside. It cited Suzlon’s strong pipeline, an expected surge in wind installations, and the new blade plants. The brokerage noted these factors provide multi-year execution visibility and justify its Rs 76 target price.

    3. Kalpataru Projects International:

    This construction and engineering company has risen by over 49% from its 52-week low of Rs 786.3. On December 10, it won new orders worth Rs 2,003 crore across its buildings & factories and transmission & distribution segments from clients both in India and overseas.

    With these new orders, the company's YTD order intake stands at around Rs 17,000 crore. The company stated that this large backlog will provide good visibility for sales growth in the coming quarters.

    Kalpataru Projects reported strong results during the second quarter. Profit surged 91% YoY to Rs 240 crore, driven by higher execution and its healthy order book. Revenue grew 32% to Rs 6,528.6 crore during the quarter, thanks to growth across its major business segments.

    Over 40% of Kalpataru's order book is in its transmission & distribution business. Management notes they have a tender pipeline of over Rs 1.5 lakh crore over the next 12 to 18 months. However, its water infrastructure business, which accounts for about 14% of the order book, saw a 6% revenue decline in Q2 due to delayed payments from states such as Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand.

    Meanwhile, the management expects the buildings business to grow by around 20% in FY26, given the healthy outlook for residential and commercial construction, as well as other civil projects.

    Commenting on the outlook, MD & CEO Manish Manod said, “We are on track to achieve revenue growth of over 25%, compared to our earlier guidance of 20% to 25%.” He also projects an order intake of more than Rs 25,000 crore for FY26, considering the strong opportunities in both India and international markets.

    Axis Direct has a ‘Buy’ rating on Kalpataru with a higher target price of Rs 1,475. The brokerage believes the company is well positioned to benefit from its strong order book, favourable trends in the domestic and international transmission and buildings segments, improved performance from its overseas subsidiaries, and supportive government policies.

    4. Whirlpool of India:

    The stock of this consumer electronics company declined by more than 5% over the past week following reports that a major deal had fallen through. Global private equity firm Advent International was in talks to acquire a controlling stake in the company for up to $1 billion, but negotiations reportedly collapsed due to disagreements over valuation.

    Advent had been the frontrunner to buy a 31% stake from the company's US parent, Whirlpool Corporation, a move that would have triggered a mandatory takeover offer. The parent company, looking to pay down debt by restructuring its global assets, planned to reduce its 51% holding to roughly 20% and raise between $550 million and $600 million. However, the deal stalled as Advent reportedly pushed for a lower price, citing headwinds in the Indian market, including stricter product standards and energy-efficiency rules.

    The company's recent financial performance has also been under pressure. Second-quarter net profit dropped 35% YoY to Rs 27.1 crore, missing Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 30.6% as sales of summer products like refrigerators and air conditioners slumped. Consequently, the stock appears on a screener highlighting companies where mutual funds have cut their stakes over the last quarter.

    Highlighting financial pressures, Whirlpool Corporation CFO James W. Peters said, “We experienced incremental costs of tariffs of approximately 250 basis points. While marketing and technology was flat versus the prior year, we have continued to invest in our products and brands. Lastly, currency depreciation associated with the Argentinian peso and Indian rupee resulted in an unfavourable margin impact of 25 basis points.”

    Brokerage firm Axis Capital remains bearish, assigning a ‘Sell’ rating with a target price of Rs 897. The brokerage points out that Whirlpool Corp carries a massive gross debt of Rs 57,000 crore. Even if the 31% stake sale goes through, it would cover less than 10% of this debt pile, which is equivalent to just 1.5 years of interest payments. Axis warns that the lingering uncertainty over future ownership could hurt Whirlpool India’s market share and business direction.

    5. Lloyds Metals & Energy:

    This coal & mining stock climbed 7.7% over the past week after its board approved the acquisition of a 50% stake in Nexus Holdco FZCO for $55 million (approximately Rs 495.7 crore). The company will carry out this acquisition through its subsidiary, Lloyds Global Resources FZCO. 

    Nexus holds significant stakes in Surya Mines SARL and eight other companies in the Democratic Republic of Congo. These companies collectively control various mining concessions, including copper, cobalt, lead, and zinc, as well as a copper processing plant in the country.

    The company also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Tata Steel to collaborate on raw material mining, logistics, pellet, and steel-making. The partnership will focus on greenfield steel-making projects, iron ore mining, slurry pipeline infrastructure, pellet-making in iron ore-rich Indian states, and exporting low-carbon iron & steel products. Initially, they will operate mining concessions and associated infrastructure to boost iron ore production in Gadchiroli, Maharashtra.

    In Q2FY26, Lloyds Metals’ revenue surged 152.2% YoY to Rs 3,706.8 crore, driven by higher iron-ore dispatches and the commencement of pellet sales. Revenue also beat Forecaster estimates by 27.9%. Net profit jumped 90%, driven by the commercialisation of the slurry pipeline and improved fixed-cost management. However, the company’s debt surged 75% to Rs 8,000 crore due to delays in capacity expansion in its arm, Thriveni Earthmovers.

    Following the results, Riyaz Shaikh, CFO of Lloyds Metals, noted, “We have lowered our FY26 EBITDA guidance for Thriveni to ~Rs 2,100 crore from Rs 2,800 crore due to delayed capacity ramp-up, with confidence in catching up in H2.”

    FundsIndia maintains its ‘Buy’ call on Lloyds Metals, setting a target price of Rs 1,468 per share, a 14% upside. The brokerage believes the company is poised for long-term growth as its capacity expansions commercialise over the next 2-3 years. It expects Lloyds Metals’ capex to rise to Rs 6,000-6,500 crore from FY27 onwards, supporting its shift from ore sales to an integrated pellet, direct-reduced iron, and steel model.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    11 Dec 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 11, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 11, 2025

    By Abdullah Shah

    1. Coforge: 

    Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this digital services provider, with a target price of Rs 3,000 per share, an upside of 63.7%. Analysts Abhishek Pathak and Keval Bhagat view Coforge as a strong mid-tier player, well-positioned to benefit from vendor consolidation and rising demand for cost-optimisation deals.

    Management highlighted increased client budgets for compliance and risk management due to tightening financial regulations, data protection & privacy laws, and AI governance & ethics. Analysts believe this offers Coforge a resilient, non-discretionary revenue stream. They add that AI-led legacy modernisation and cloud transformation are accelerating enterprise-wide automation. Analysts also note a pivot in the travel technology vertical (23% of revenue), with airlines expected to invest approximately $50 billion in modernisation over the next decade. Coforge’s Aeronova.AI platform enhances its competitive standing in this segment.

    The company plans expansion into the West and Midwest of North America, focusing on hi-tech, retail, consumer packaged goods, and manufacturing verticals. Pathak and Bhagat see Coforge’s strong executable order book and resilient client spending driving long-term growth. They expect a revenue CAGR of 30.2% and a net profit CAGR of 38.7% over FY26-28.

    2. Healthcare Global Enterprises:

    Axis Direct retains its ‘Buy’ call on this healthcare services provider with a target price of Rs 850 per share, an upside of 20.1%. The company’s stock price has shown weakness recently, falling 7.7% over the past month. Analyst Aman Goyal is positive on the stock, owing to strong growth in oncology, management’s confidence in sustaining revenue and profitability, and Rs 290 crore in capex for FY27 expansion.

    Management anticipates 9-10% growth in patient volume and a 4-5% increase in average revenue per patient (ARPP). They expect deeper clinical specialisations, scaling key programs like bone marrow transplant and robotic surgery, better patient journeys, and stronger sales efforts to drive this growth. Analyst notes the company will benefit from improved operating leverage, a better case mix, and a shift from lower-yield institutional business, supporting management’s EBITDA margin guidance of 21-22% over the next 4-5 years. 

    Goyal highlights that Healthcare Global’s Rs 600-700 crore capex over the next 2-3 years will fund brownfield expansions and greenfield acquisitions in key markets. He expects the company to deliver a revenue CAGR of 15.7% and a net profit CAGR of 80.5% over FY26-28.

    3. Union Bank of India: 

    Geojit BNP Paribas reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this public sector bank, with a target price of Rs 188 per share, an upside of 25.1%. The bank’s Q2FY26 net profit rose 3.3% sequentially to Rs 4,249.1 crore. Analyst Sheen G points to an 8.3% drop in gross slippages, along with improved credit underwriting and recovery, as key catalysts for net profit growth.

    The analyst notes that the bank improved its asset quality, with net non-performing assets falling 43 bps YoY to 0.6%, supported by strong provisioning. However, net interest income (NII) declined 2.6% due to slower loan growth and higher deposit costs. Net interest margin also contracted 23 basis points to 2.7%, reflecting deposit repricing and cautious lending in lower-yield segments. 

    Management expects to achieve 9-10% loan growth going forward, driven by an improving loan mix. Sheen highlights that the bank’s 5% loan growth came from strong increases in the retail, agriculture, and MSME segments. The analyst projects a NII CAGR of 7.4% over FY26-27.

    4. SRF: 

    ICICI Securities upgrades this chemical company to a ‘Buy’ rating, with a target price of Rs 3,450, an upside of 17.2%. Over the last six months, the stock has corrected by 4.8%. Analysts Sanjesh Jain and Mohit Mishra expect a broad recovery across SRF’s chemicals portfolio and see a 15–20% upside to current revenue forecasts for refrigerant gases, supported by stronger volumes and stable global prices.

    Management reports strong demand for SRF’s main gas product, R32 (a hydrofluorocarbon), even as the world transitions from older gases. They expect long-term demand to grow as new US rules mandate air conditioners to use newer gases like R454B, which contains R32. Growing data centres in the US and China also add demand. For its R134a gas product, which is used mainly in automobile air-conditioning, analysts cite strong domestic car sales and India’s mandate for air-conditioned cabins in commercial vehicles as key demand drivers. Management also expects the speciality chemicals business to improve in the second half of FY26 with new product production. 

    Jain and Mishra believe SRF will benefit from steady demand, limited competition, and growth in the fluoropolymer market. They project stronger revenue and net profit led by refrigerant gases, and note that demand for hydrofluorocarbon gases remains favourable amid improving industry conditions.

    5. Voltamp Transformers: 

    Emkay maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this transformer manufacturer with a target price of Rs 10,000, an upside of 25.3%. Its share price has fallen 10.9% over the last six months and 29.4% over the past year. Analysts Ashwani Sharma and Abhishek Taparia note that the company holds about a 15% share in the industrial transformer market, supported by a strong presence among private-sector clients. With nearly 85% of its revenue coming from this segment, they view the company’s customer base as both stable and well diversified. 

    Management reports strong inquiries from industrial customers and power utilities as grid expansion accelerates. Order inflows have been robust, growing 37% in FY24, 12% in FY25, and another 37% in the first half of FY26. Demand comes from sectors like metals, mining, infrastructure, and renewable energy. Voltamp currently operates at full capacity of 14,000 megavolt ampere (MVA) and adds another 6,000 MVA in Vadodara by FY27 to support future growth.

    Sharma and Taparia see good opportunities in solar, railways, EV charging, and data centres. While competition might soften margins, they maintain a positive long-term view, backed by strong demand, a Rs 1,400 crore order book, and planned expansion. They expect strong revenue growth but slightly reduced margin expectations due to new industry capacity and potential price pressure.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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