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01 Apr 2026, 06:07PM

Rising energy costs test India’s growth outlook

“A rare ‘Goldilocks’ phase of high growth and low inflation.” That is how Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra described the Indian economy at the December policy meeting. Interest rates were expected to stay unchanged for an extended period.

That was, of course, before the US and Israel bombed Iran, the Hormuz Strait closed and crude oil prices spiralled up. Goldilocks has run off, as higher prices and a wider trade deficit raise inflation risks and weaken the rupee. Rating agencies now expect the central bank to raise rates in the near term to support the currency.

The surge in oil & gas prices after the Iran conflict is showing up in economic forecasts. Global institutions have started to cut growth estimates for India.

The risk is also in how long higher prices will persist. As the OECD noted, “the breadth and duration of the conflict are very uncertain”.

Forecasts are split in this volatile moment. Some analysts are more optimistic than others, and see domestic demand holding firm and absorbing part of the shock. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at how higher energy costs are changing growth forecasts and what that means for the economy.

Growth forecasts fall as oil shock starts to bite

What began as an energy supply disruption for the world is now visible in forecasts, expenses, and household budgets.

Much of this traces back to the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. India imports about 88% of its crude oil and nearly half of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Around half of its crude and over three-fourths of LPG shipments pass through this route.

Goldman Sachs cut India’s CY26 growth forecast twice after the war in Iran, with a total reduction of 110 basis points (bps) to 5.9%. India’s dependence on imported energy makes it especially vulnerable. When oil prices rise, India spends more on imports, widening the trade deficit. This pushes the rupee lower, making dollar-based imports like oil and other raw materials costlier.

The effect is most visible in spending. A larger share of the country’s income is forced towards essentials, leaving less room for discretionary purchases. Businesses face the same issue. As costs rise, they either increase prices or take a hit to profits. Goldman Sachs now expects inflation in India to rise by 70 bps to 4.6% for CY26.

Goldman Sachs also downgraded Indian equities to ‘marketweight’, flagging it as less attractive than other Asian markets. It cut its 12-month Nifty 50 target by about 14% to 25,300-25,900, expecting earnings downgrades to follow as higher oil prices drive up costs.

The OECD and Nomura both lowered their FY27 growth forecasts by 10 bps to 6.1% and 7.0%, respectively, while ANZ cut its estimate more sharply to a 6.5%-6.8% range.

There is no consensus among these institutions on how to handle the fall in the rupee. Goldman Sachs expects the RBI to actively intervene and stabilize the rupee, raising interest rates by 50 bps. Higher rates can support the rupee by offering better returns on fixed-income assets, attracting foreign investors. While this may help support the currency, it also raises borrowing costs. Credit becomes more expensive, which slows demand across consumption and investment.

In contrast, Standard Chartered supports letting the rupee weaken further. A weaker rupee reduces demand for imports, boosts exports, and narrows the gap between inflows and outflows. Economist Anubhuti Sahay said, “Despite having reserves to cover about 10 months of imports, the rupee may still need to weaken to absorb pressure from imports, a wider deficit, and capital outflows.”

In the meantime, Indian factories are closing as gas shortages hit industrial clusters. In Gujarat, about 98% of engineering firms are shut, while in Maharashtra, around half the units have closed. “All heating furnaces use LPG and, given the shortage and curbs on industrial use, factories have shut,” said Pankaj Chadha, chairman of the Engineering Exports Promotion Council.

IndusInd Bank’s Gaurav Kapur sees a 30 bps hit to India’s GDP growth and warns that weaker consumption could weigh on the recovery. “The government has enough room to cut fuel taxes and soften the impact of higher oil prices, but the hit on the industrial sector will slow growth,” he said.

Some forecasts are optimistic as domestic demand holds steady

Not all forecasts are turning weaker. Some expect growth to hold up, even after the oil shock, as domestic demand remains intact.

The Associated Chambers of Commerce & Industry of India expects growth to stay above 7%. It points to strong factory and services activity, with readings better than most major economies in February 2026. At the same time, it notes that a weaker rupee and higher fuel prices could push prices up in the months ahead.

S&P Global takes a similar view, raising its FY27 growth forecast by 40 bps to 7.1%. It expects consumption, recovery in private investment, and exports to hold up to support growth. It also notes that higher oil prices may not fully reflect in retail prices, as the government is likely to intervene to limit the impact.

Even so, it flags risks from the West Asia conflict. “Downside risks remain, primarily due to renewed geopolitical tensions and persistent trade-related uncertainties,” it said.

Fitch Ratings also raised its FY27 growth forecast by 30 bps to 6.7%, but with a different timeline. It expects growth to remain weak in the first half of FY27 as higher prices drag spending, before improving later as borrowing becomes cheaper and investment picks up.

This uneven recovery reflects how the oil shock is playing out. It is not just about higher prices, but how the pressure builds and spreads across the economy. Domestic demand is holding up for now, but the strain on growth is already visible.

The Baseline

31 Mar 2026, 06:14PM

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - March 31, 2026

By Abdullah Shah

1. Uno Minda:

Axis Direct upgrades this auto parts producer to a ‘Buy’ rating from ‘Hold’, with a target price of Rs 1,260 per share, a 22.1% upside. The impact of the US-Iran war is negative for the company in the short-to-medium term. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising regional instability affect global logistics, raw material costs, and the European market, which is a key export destination for the company. Its stock price declined 13.2% over the past month.

Analyst Sanchit Kumar, however, sees strong long-term growth for the company, driven by new product launches, premiumisation, ongoing capacity expansion, and a robust EV order book. Uno Minda is also well-positioned to profit from stricter safety and acoustic regulations.

As India's top automotive horn maker and second globally, the company benefits from mandated Acoustic Vehicle Alerting Systems (AVAS) in EVs, recently securing orders in the electric passenger vehicle segment. Its airbag joint venture is building a new Rs 280 crore facility in Karnataka to meet the rising demand for vehicle safety features.

Through its 76% stake in the Minda Westport joint venture, the company also makes CNG and LPG kits, profiting directly from the surge in CNG vehicle sales. Kumar believes ongoing investments, a focus on making more parts locally, and strong demand at home will fuel its growth.

2. Power Grid Corp of India:

Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this electric utilities provider, with a target price of Rs 324 per share, an upside of 17.5%. Analysts Vishal Periwal and Shubham Shelar believe Power Grid is perfectly placed to seize India’s massive Rs 15 lakh crore transmission opportunity. This translates to a potential annual order pipeline of Rs 60,000–70,000 crore.

The company is consolidating 19 special purpose vehicles (SPVs) into two, with more mergers planned. Analysts note that this move will streamline governance, improve capital allocation, and boost scalability as Power Grid's asset base grows. Management approved a capex of Rs 37,000 crore for FY27 and Rs 45,000 crore for FY28. They expect further upside from new project wins and strong execution.

Periwal and Shelar say that the company's right-of-way (ROW) challenges have eased. The government introduced a market-linked compensation framework to improve land acquisition. Clearer guidelines have also reduced disputes, and the company has strengthened execution with dedicated ROW teams and specialised expertise. They expect Power Grid to achieve a 9.8% revenue CAGR and a 5.9% net profit CAGR through FY28.

3. Sky Gold and Diamonds:

BOB Capital Markets initiates coverage on this small-cap jewellery manufacturer with a ‘Buy’ call and a target price of Rs 494 per share, an upside of 55.2%. The stock fell 11.9% last month. The Israel–Iran war poses a risk, as Middle East exports, about 10% of revenue, face potential shipping delays and higher costs. Analyst Lavita Lasrado still likes the company, pointing to strong growth in its B2B model where Sky Gold supplies gold jewellery to retail chains without owning its stores. This asset-light strategy keeps costs low and allows for efficient expansion.

Management reports that capacity has surged to over 1,000 kg per month, yet utilisation sits at a low 33–46%. This offers significant room for volume growth without major new spending. Sky Gold is also shifting its product mix towards higher-margin items like 18-carat studded and diamond jewellery, which now form about 25% of its offerings. Growth comes from deeper client relationships, new retailer tie-ups, export expansion, and selective acquisitions that strengthen manufacturing capabilities.

Analyst Lavita Lasrado expects revenue to grow at around 37% CAGR over FY26–28, driven by volume ramp-up and new clients. EBITDA margins should improve to around 6.5%, supported by a better product mix and operating leverage. However, the analyst identifies client concentration as a key risk, with a significant share of revenue coming from top customers.

4. Aurobindo Pharma:

Motilal Oswal retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceutical manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 1,500 per share, an upside of 15%. Analysts Tushar Manudhane and Vipul Mehta believe several factors will boost future earnings: scaling up the Penicillin-G (Pen-G) plant, increased external sales of 6-Amino Penicillanic Acid (6-APA), higher demand in the EU, new US product launches, and integrating Lannett (US-based generics manufacturer).

Aurobindo makes 6-APA, which is a key ingredient in antibiotics like amoxicillin, ampicillin, and piperacillin. To support this, the company has set up a Penicillin-G (Pen-G) plant, which started operations in July 2025 and is now gradually increasing output. The 6-APA plant is also expected to reach full capacity in the next 3–4 months.

Manudhane and Mehta add that from the planned 15,000 metric tonnes (MT) of Pen-G, 3,000 MT goes to domestic sales. They use the remaining 12,000 MT of Pen-G to produce 6-APA. By producing these inputs in-house instead of buying them, Aurobindo reduces costs and improves control over its supply chain, giving it an advantage over competitors. They expect the company to achieve a 9% revenue CAGR and a 21% net profit CAGR from FY26-28.

5. Sagility:

ICICI Securities reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this business service provider, with a target price of Rs 66 per share, an upside of 65.2%. AI's growing use in healthcare outsourcing drives this positive outlook. Sagility operates in the US healthcare market, where low outsourcing offers a significant long-term opportunity. High client stickiness, with 97% retention and an 18-year average tenure, ensures steady growth.

Management states AI expands their work, rather than shrinking it. The company is moving from traditional employee-based models to outcome-based pricing, guaranteeing clients cost savings. Sagility uses AI across key areas like claims processing, payment integrity, revenue cycle management, and utilisation management to boost efficiency and cut costs. New growth opportunities exist in medical loss ratio management, appeals, and clinical services, representing a significant $20,000–32,000 crore market.

Analysts Ruchi Mukhija and Seema Nayak expect strong growth, supported by AI-led solutions and expansion into new service areas. EBITDA margins should remain stable at 24–25%. They add that US healthcare demand will keep growing, fueled by the popularity of GLP-1 drugs used for obesity and diabetes, higher healthcare activity and long-term outsourcing growth.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

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The Baseline

27 Mar 2026

Five Interesting Stocks Today - March 27, 2026

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Maruti Suzuki:

This car company rose 2% on March 25 after announcing plans to invest Rs 10,189 crore in a new Gujarat plant with an annual capacity of 2.5 lakh units. The company currently operates at near-full utilisation, with a total capacity of around 25 lakh units.

The new facility will expand capacity by about 10% and help address supply constraints. It will be built in phases, with production expected to begin by 2029. Forecaster expects revenue to grow 18.5% in FY26, while net profit is projected to rise over 10%.

SUVs now account for over half of the passenger vehicle market, and the company’s share in this segment has increased to about 24.5% as of December 2025, up from around 19.5% in FY22. MD and CEO Hisashi Takeuchi said, “We are currently constrained by supply, not demand, and our priority is to scale capacity in line with market growth and exports.”

Exports remain a key growth driver, accounting for about 18% of total sales. The company contributed nearly 46% of India’s passenger vehicle exports in 2025, with export volumes growing over 25% YoY in the first nine months of FY26.

Geopolitical risks remain in the near term. Rising tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns around global trade routes, although the company’s exposure to the region is relatively limited. Senior Executive Rahul Bharti noted, “The Middle East region accounts for about 12.5% of our total exports,” adding that a diversified presence across nearly 100 countries reduces reliance on any single region.

Motilal Oswal reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, with a lower target price of Rs 17,406, indicating that a larger portion of earnings growth is expected over the medium term. Margins have been under pressure due to higher discounts, coupled with rising input costs, but are expected to improve as pricing stabilises and the product mix strengthens.

2. Reliance Industries:

This conglomerate has had a dramatic week. Its stock fell 4.6% on Friday after the government imposed a new export tax levy on refineries selling petrol and diesel, adding to the pressure from the semi-annual Nifty 50 index rebalancing that reduced the stock’s weight. Passive funds are expected to withdraw roughly $25 million from the stock.

The export tax move will squeeze gross refining margins (GRMs), especially as the global crude basket has surged past $100 per barrel due to geopolitical shocks, raising input costs across Reliance’s Jamnagar operations.

Reliance gets the majority of its revenue from its Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) segment, with refined fuel exports contributing over 55% of overall sales. To drive international growth, the company is backing a historic $300 billion oil refinery development at the Port of Brownsville in Texas, as recently announced by US President Donald Trump.

As oil grows volatile, Reliance is expected to focus more on its consumer and green energy businesses. The company is diversifying fast, launching the first phase of its Dhirubhai Ambani Green Energy “Giga Complex”, with an eye on the multi-billion dollar domestic market for solar modules and green hydrogen.

Reliance has also introduced AI cloud services in India through tech partnerships following its massive data center expansion. While these launches are expected to support growth, the green energy rollout is likely to face intense competition from both early mover domestic and global players.

Management is also exploring acquisitions to strengthen its presence in critical mineral and battery technology markets. Chairman Mukesh Ambani says that the company is “actively pursuing targeted strategic partnerships” and prefers deploying internal cash generation toward acquisitions to scale up the new energy business.

Motilal Oswal has stayed bullish on Reliance despite the volatility in the Middle East (although the title of the report, “chaos can be a catalyst”, is not that encouraging). The brokerage expects near-term pressure in the oil segment, but sees new energy rollouts and telecom tariff hikes supporting long-term growth.

3. Natco Pharma:

This pharmaceutical company rose 2.5% on Wednesday after its board approved the demerger of its agrochemicals business into a separate listed entity. Shareholders will receive one share in the new company for every share held, effective October 1, 2026. Management expects the move to sharpen strategic focus and unlock value, especially as the crop health segment has seen strong growth, with revenue rising nearly 90% YoY in the past quarter.

The company trades at 11.2x earnings, the lowest amongst its peers. The demerger is expected to improve operational flexibility and enable more focused execution across both businesses. Shareholding data indicates that mutual funds have increased their stake over the past two months.

Natco derives most of its revenue from pharmaceuticals, with export formulations forming the largest share. This segment contributes over 75% of sales, driven by strong performance in Brazil, Canada, and other emerging markets. Growth came despite zero contribution from Revlimid, which was earlier a key earnings driver, indicating improving diversification in the base business.

To drive future growth, the company has launched a generic version of Pomalyst, a multiple myeloma treatment with a $3 billion market in the US. It has also introduced semaglutide in India through partnerships following the patent expiry in March. While these launches are expected to support growth, semaglutide is likely to face intense competition from multiple generic players.

Management is also exploring acquisitions to strengthen its presence in emerging markets. CEO Rajeev Nannapaneni said the company is “actively pursuing 2–3 targets” and prefers deploying cash toward acquisitions to scale the business.

Following the announcement, Geojit BNP Paribas raised its rating on the stock to ‘Accumulate’ with a target price of Rs 1,058. The brokerage expects near-term pressure from the decline in Revlimid but sees new launches and acquisitions supporting long-term growth.

4. Brigade Enterprises:

This realty company jumped 3.9% on March 25after launching Brigade Belvedere. This new residential project in East Bengaluru has revenue potential of over Rs 1,100 crore and boosts the company’s footprint in the city's IT corridor.

Brigade is expanding beyond homes to become a more versatile developer. On March 10, itentered the industrial real estate sector with a 25-acre park in North Bengaluru, a move designed to generate steady rental income. The 2 million sq. ft. project will cater to logistics, manufacturing, and data centres, tapping into high demand near the airport.

The company's diversification continues. Itpartnered with Primus Senior Living on three senior housing projects totalling Rs 750 crore. Brigade is also growing its managed workspace business, adding a 550-seatlease in Hyderabad to reach 1.1 lakh sq. ft. of total leased space there.

Trendlyne’sForecaster predicts revenue will grow 14.4% YoY in Q4FY26. New home launches, solid project execution, and momentum in leasing and hospitality will drive this growth.

Brigade targets 15% annual pre-sales growth through FY27, but hitting this goal depends on getting projects approved on time. Managing Director Pavitra Shankarwarned, “If I don't get the approvals… we may not be able to make that number… as we are seeing a 50/50 contribution from existing and new launches,” highlighting that new launches are crucial for growth.

Looking ahead, the company will invest Rs 3,600 crore to double its hotel rooms by FY30. Shankarnoted, “The Indian hospitality sector continues to see demand outpacing supply.” This segment provides 10% of total revenue and is boosted by rising occupancy and room rates.

Geojit BNP Paribaskeeps its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. It points to a powerful pipeline of 17 million sq. ft. in new launches to fuel growth. The leasing business remains stable, with 93% occupancy and 4.2 million sq. ft. of new commercial space in development. However, the brokerage warns that court cases at its Chennai project are a key risk.

5. Kalpataru Projects International:

This construction & engineering company rose 5.5% on March 25 after it secured orders worth Rs 4,439 crore. The orders include building transmission lines and substation projects across India and overseas markets, adding to its execution pipeline.

The company’s order book stands at around Rs 63,300 crore, which means it already has a large portion of future work in hand. It has secured around Rs 19,500 crore of orders so far in FY26 and remains on track to meet its full-year target, with demand staying strong across segments. Forecaster expects revenue to grow over 23% YoY in FY26, while net profit is projected to surge over 56%.

Executive Director & CEO Manish Mohnot said, “International projects account for around 60-65% of our order book, which helps diversify our business across geographies.” A large part of the order book is also from transmission and buildings segments, which together form about 70% of total orders and typically offer better margins.

In the first nine months of FY26, pre-tax profit margin rose by about 80 bps to 5.3%. This improvement comes as older low-margin projects are completed and a larger share of work shifts to newer orders with better pricing. At the same time, the company is getting paid faster on its projects, which has helped reduce net debt by about 29% to around Rs 2,240 crore.

Anand Rathi reiterated its ‘Buy’ call on the stock with a higher target price of Rs 1,408. The brokerage expects growth to stay strong as execution improves, debt reduces, and a larger share of projects comes from segments that earn higher margins. It also highlighted that most of the order book is already in these higher-margin segments, which gives confidence that profitability can keep improving from here.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

27 Mar 2026

In a volatile market, FPIs pick sectors showing results over promise

By Anagh Keremutt

As volatility soars, the Indian stock market has become a game of musical chairs, where global investors are crowding into a few select sectors before the music stops.

Over the past year, this rotation sped up, as foreign investors favoured stocks and sectors with clear earnings visibility. FPIs sold over Rs 1 lakh crore worth of shares in the first three months of 2026 alone.

A weaker rupee has added to this pressure, with the currency hovering near Rs 94 against the US dollar.

“Fears of a prolonged Israel-US-Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have played a key role,” said Vaqarjaved Khan, Senior Fundamental Analyst at Angel One. He added that “rising US bond yields and profit booking after February’s rally” have further worsened stress in stock markets.

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we break down where foreign money is leaving, and where it is staying put.

FPIs cut exposure to IT and consumer stocks

One factor driving foreign investors away from IT is the disruption caused by Artificial Intelligence. AI is taking over routine tech tasks that Indian IT companies have long handled.

Tools like those developed by Anthropic can now do this work, raising concerns that companies may no longer outsource these tasks to Indian IT firms. This has raised doubts around the sector’s future earnings, with over Rs 89,000 crore in outflows over the past twelve months, making it the most heavily sold sector.

Consumer stocks also took a hit, as urban spending slowed despite income tax reforms.

FMCG names have seen persistent selling through FY26, with outflows crossing Rs 36,000 crore. Consumer durables and services also saw pressure, with roughly Rs 18,800 crore and Rs 14,400 crore in outflows, pointing to a broader slowdown in discretionary demand.

The stress intensified in February 2026 when the government raised GST on stick cigarettes from 28% to 40%, along with higher excise duties. This directly impacted ITC, which carries nearly a 28% weight in the broader consumer index.

Even defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals were not spared. The US increased surprise factory inspections, and in September, President Trump imposed 100% tariffs on Indian patented drugs. With the US accounting for about 31% of exports, these measures triggered outflows of over Rs 28,000 crore.

FPIs turn selective in rate-sensitive sectors

Foreign investors have turned cautious in rate-sensitive sectors. Financial services saw heavy selling through most of 2025 and early 2026, as concerns around slowing earnings and high valuations weighed on investor sentiment.

In telecom, FPIs were counting on a 15% price hike by late 2025 or, at the latest, by FY26. Data remains cheap in India, and usage is among the highest globally. However, the last price increase was in July 2024, leading to slower revenue growth through 2025. As price hikes stalled, foreign investors sold over Rs 10,500 crore within the first three months of 2026, though cumulative inflows still stand at nearly Rs 29,500 crore.

The automobile sector recovered from a slowdown by the second half of FY26, supported by festive demand, GST cuts, and income tax relief. Even then, flows stayed weak, with FPIs selling Rs 6,921 crore, indicating that the recovery has yet to translate into consistent earnings visibility.

Real estate is facing a similar gap between demand and reported earnings. Builders can only record revenue once projects are completed and handed over. Godrej Properties saw booking values jump 55% YoY to Rs 8,421 crore in Q3FY26, but revenue fell 17% in the same period.

Lower mortgage rates boosted demand, but rising input costs are cutting into future profits. Aluminum prices are up nearly 24% over the past year, while construction costs have risen 15%. This could squeeze margins by around 5%.

“Developers have absorbed higher costs to protect sales, but if disruptions continue, prices may have to rise and project viability could be affected,” said Keval Valambhia, COO of CREDAI-MCHI.

Investors remained cautious, with nearly Rs 14,500 crore exiting the sector between March 2025 and early March 2026.

Power is running into a different constraint. Capacity has expanded quickly, but transmission gaps have limited how much of that electricity can actually reach consumers, a trend we have discussed earlier. The sector also faced US duties on solar imports before sentiment improved in February 2026. Even so, power recorded net outflows of nearly Rs 16,000 crore over this period, reflecting execution bottlenecks despite strong capacity growth.

Capital flows to sectors with visible growth

If that’s where money is leaving, where is it going?

Heavy manufacturing and capital goods are now the top picks for global investors. Capital goods and metals together brought in about Rs 52,600 crore since last March, making them the biggest drivers of inflows.

Government spending on infrastructure rose 9% to Rs 12.2 lakh crore for FY27. Demand for machinery is improving, with import growth accelerating to 13.4% by the third quarter of FY26. Factory usage levels have risen to 74.8%.

Five-year tax breaks for foreign machinery suppliers and duty cuts on critical minerals are reducing costs and helping companies expand capacity. Policy support and capacity expansion have drawn in over Rs 26,000 crore into capital goods over the past year.

“Valuations in capital goods have eased, which is bringing investors back into the sector,” said U.R. Bhat, co-founder and director at Alphiniti. “The US-India trade deal has also supported this trend,” she added.

Metal producers are benefiting after a prolonged period of cheap Chinese steel imports that had hurt margins. The government imposed anti-dumping duties in December 2025, ranging from $223 to $414 per tonne. This helped India turn into a net exporter in Q3FY26, just as Chinese industrial activity recovered. The sector has seen inflows of over Rs 26,000 crore since March 2025.

Oil & gas attracted strong inflows through most of 2025, supported by domestic demand and improving refining margins. Investors viewed the sector as a play on India’s industrial recovery, with nearly Rs 14,900 crore flowing in between March 2025 and mid-March 2026.

However, this trend reversed sharply in early March 2026. Rising tensions in Iran pushed Brent crude prices close to $120, raising concerns that fuel retailers would have to absorb higher costs. This led to nearly Rs 2,932 crore in outflows in just the first two weeks of March, as investors locked in gains and moved ahead of potential margin pressure.

This shift is playing out across sectors. Foreign capital is backing execution over potential. We are in a highly cautious market, where money is moving only to sectors showing steady, consistent growth.

The Baseline

25 Mar 2026

Between Swiggy and Zomato, Swiggy takes the dark patterns crown

They are two companies with fundamentally nonsensical names, and we use them nearly everyday. People say 'Swiggy it' like they used to say 'Kodak moment'. These two listed companies, Swiggy and Zomato (Eternal), directly compete with each other in food delivery and quick commerce.

Swiggy's management never mentions their competitor by name in their earnings calls. It's a 'Voldemort' situation where they will say "market leader" instead of 'Blinkit/Zomato'. But they know, of course, that they are the runner-up in this space, both financially and in size. Eternal has more users as well as higher value users compared to Swiggy - 62 million annual paying users, with an average order value (AOV) of Rs. 640, while Swiggy has 42 million annual paying users with an AOV of Rs. 450.

Eternal has also maintained positive net profit for several quarters, while Swiggy is reporting significant quarterly losses (over Rs 1,000 crore in the most recent quarter).

Swiggy is in a difficult position financially, playing catch-up to Zomato and Blinkit, while also struggling to become profitable. Perhaps to push up their numbers, they seem to be copying the Zepto playbook of dark patterns on their apps. We take a closer look at some moves that are already getting pushback from its users.

Automatic checkboxes in the app

A significant concern for all players in the delivery and quick commerce space has been low payments to their delivery partners. To offset the problem of weak delivery payouts, all these apps encourage customers to add a delivery tip on orders.

The key here is the difference in behaviour between the two apps, Zomato and Swiggy. On Swiggy, the tip is auto-checked, so that it applies by default to all your future orders.

Users on Swiggy Instamart have also documented MRP differences in items delivered, versus what has been charged by the platform. MRP markups are a well known dark pattern in quick commerce: the company bets on the fact that most users ordering from these apps will not double check the item value against the invoice. This was also a major complaint against Zepto.

Getting a refund from Swiggy even for documented issues is increasingly difficult, thanks to Swiggy's AI bot. The bot often limits options to users, making it difficult to escalate the issue to human agents or the escalation desk.

And speaking of refunds..

The newest dark pattern: zero refunds even on instant cancellation

One of the newest dark patterns Swiggy imposes on its users is its zero refund policy. This has recently emerged as a major point of concern for users.

We noted the behaviour of both the apps on cancellation within one minute, of an order placed on the apps.

When users contact Swiggy about these refunds, they cite "company policy" on charging users the full amount even on immediate order cancellation. This is a new change on the app: Swiggy previously allowed users to cancel with a full refund within one minute of placing their order.

Other users have noted the lack of refunds even when products or restaurant items are out of stock.

The "enshittification" trend in consumer apps

The Canadian writer Cory Doctorow coined the term "enshittification" in November 2022. The term describes how companies gradually degrade their services to their customers in order to maximize short-term profits.

Doctorow described the pattern as follows:

Here is how platforms die: first, they are good to their users; then they abuse their users to make things better for their business customers; finally, they abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves. Then, they die.

Users can very well cancel Swiggy over their cancellation fees. But while journalists and customers can highlight these issues and boycott these apps, long term behavioural change can happen only with regulation, and serious deterrance. This is especially needed for industries that are a duopoly - in the restaurant delivery market for instance, Zomato and Swiggy are the two dominant players.

The action against Zepto however, is not encouraging. The company received just a slap on the wrist in the form of a Rs. 7 lakh fine for deceptive behaviour, ahead of their IPO. The cost to companies for implementing these kinds of extractive fees from consumers is low. Without structured deterrents, companies will keep trying these experiments. Caveat emptor.

The Baseline

24 Mar 2026

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - March 24, 2026

By Ruchir Sankhla

1. V-Guard Industries:

Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades this electrical appliance manufacturer to a ‘Buy’ call, with a target price of Rs 392 per share, an upside of 20.7%. The Israel–Iran war negatively impacts input costs and logistics. V-Guard relies on copper, polymers, and oil derivatives, so rising commodity and freight costs could pressure margins. However, minimal direct sales to the conflict zone protect its revenues and assets.

V-Guard’s Q3FY26 revenue grew 11% YoY. The electricals division led the charge, thanks to higher sales volumes and copper prices. Management predicts a strong Q4, banking on an early summer to boost seasonal demand.

The company plans to grow six key categories to over Rs 1,000 crore each in sales. These include its popular Stabilizers, Fans, and Inverters, along with newer areas like Solar Rooftops, Kitchen Appliances, and the Sunflame brand.

Analyst Anil R expects V-Guard to achieve 24% earnings growth from FY26–28. This growth stems from its strong brand, a robust 40–45% market share in stabilizers, increasing adoption of smart fans (now ~25% of fan sales), and new product category expansions. Infrastructure demand and deeper penetration into tier-2/3 markets also support its medium- to long-term prospects.

2. Coforge:

Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this software company, with a target price of Rs 1,880 per share, an upside of 69.4%. The stock has fallen in the past month over worries about its exposure to the travel industry and the Middle East. Analysts Abhishek Pathak and Keval Bhagat believe the stock has already priced in these risks, creating a good buying opportunity backed by a strong order book.

Management reports stable demand across all key verticals, with consistent client spending and a strong deal pipeline. Coforge is capitalising on cross-selling opportunities from recent acquisitions, which support long-term growth. While AI concerns suggest traditional IT outsourcing might see reduced demand, potentially impacting revenue, the $2.4 billion Encora acquisition boosts Coforge’s AI capabilities and North American presence. This positions the company to deliver AI-driven solutions and counter potential disruptions.

Pathak and Bhagat expect Coforge to remain one of the faster-growing mid-cap IT companies, driven by strong deal wins and growth from integrations. They anticipate margins to improve to around 14% over the next two years.

3. Hindalco Industries:

BOB Capital Markets initiates coverage on this aluminium producer with a ‘Buy’ call and a target price of Rs 1,050 per share, an upside of 22.9%. In the short term, the Israel-Iran war will likely hit Hindalco with higher energy and shipping costs, as well as potential raw material shortages. Long-term, strong local demand, efficient Indian plants, and expansion plans will power its earnings growth.

Hindalco is riding a wave of aluminium demand from the infrastructure, auto, and construction industries. Its subsidiary, Novelis, continues to perform well, with steady demand from beverage cans and auto parts. The company targets 3.5–4% long-term demand growth and plans $300 million in cost savings by FY28. It also aims for EBITDA above $600 per tonne, driven by efficiency and US capacity expansion. In copper, Hindalco plans to boost capacity from 521 KTPA to 821 KTPA, supported by strong domestic demand.

Analyst Sukhwinder Singh expects capital expenditure-led expansion in aluminium, alumina, and copper to drive volume growth from FY27. Cost efficiency efforts, including captive coal mines and improved energy sourcing, should reduce power costs over time. Despite higher debt from ongoing investments, leverage remains comfortable. He anticipates that strong demand, capacity expansion, and cost control will support long-term earnings growth. However, investors should keep in mind that the length of the closure of the Hormuz Strait could cause revisions in guidance and capex.

4. APL Apollo Tubes:

Axis Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ rating on this steel tube producer with a target price of Rs 2,170, an upside of 9.9%. The Iran-Israel war negatively impacts the company’s Gulf operations. Its Dubai facility faces potential shipping delays and higher logistics costs, which could slightly hurt margins.

APL Apollo Tubes aims for a total production capacity of 10 million tonnes (MT) by FY30. It plans to achieve this through greenfield projects, de-bottlenecking, and speciality tube expansions, funding these with Rs 1,500 crore in capital expenditure. The company also intends to scale capacity to 8 MT by FY28.

The company delivered a strong Q3FY26 performance, with EBITDA increasing 37% YoY. For 9MFY26, EBITDA per tonne improved to Rs 5,145, thanks to premium product launches and strong Apollo brand positioning. Management expects 20% volume growth in Q4FY26 and FY27. They project EBITDA per tonne will reach Rs 5,500 in FY27–28, driven by cost control, product mix optimization, and a growing share of value-added products.

Analysts Aditya Welekar and Keval Barot highlight that strong brand acceptance, premium positioning, and operational efficiencies prepare APL Apollo for sustained margin expansion and steady volume growth. They note that the company became net-debt-free two years ago and now targets becoming liability-free by maintaining enough cash to match current liabilities.

5. KSB:

ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this pump manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 1,000 per share, an upside of 25.1%. The Israel–Iran war negatively affects KSB, with around 17% of orders exported, mainly to the Middle East. Instability in the region and Strait of Hormuz disruptions could push up freight and energy costs and delay deliveries. However, a strong domestic order book, especially from India's nuclear and solar projects, helps offset these risks.

KSB Pumps had a strong Q3FY26, with revenue climbing 8.7% YoY, thanks to increased pump and valve sales. Management reports a robust Rs 2,585 crore order book, including Rs 1,281 crore from nuclear power projects. The company has begun recognising nuclear project revenue, expecting Rs 100–200 crore in FY26, with more to come as Kaiga and Gorakhpur projects advance. High-margin standard products, aftermarket services, and increasing exports boost profit margins.

Analysts Chirag Shah and Dilip Pandey foresee KSB maintaining steady revenue growth, driven by strong new orders and improving margins. A diverse product range and aftermarket services enhance profitability. They project revenue and net profit will grow at a 13.8% and 14.4% CAGR, respectively, from FY26-27.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

20 Mar 2026

Five Interesting Stocks Today - March 20, 2026

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Va Tech Wabag:

This water technology company rose 2.2% on March 12 after it won a contract worth over Rs 1,000 crore from Chennai's water board. The project will upgrade and run a 45 million litres per day water treatment plant, providing clean water for industrial use.

Two days later, the company landed another deal of over Rs 1,000 crore with the same authority. This Asian Development Bank-funded project will build a city-wide water transmission network.

These wins add to Wabag’s order book of over Rs 16,000 crore, a 15% YoY increase. With a strong pipeline of potential projects worth Rs 15,000-20,000 crore, combined with a 30% success rate in winning them, revenue could grow 15-20% over the next 3-4 years. Desalination, reuse, and industrial projects fueled new orders during 9MFY26.

Trendlyne’s Forecaster predicts strong performance for Q4FY26, with revenue and net profit growing 16% and 52.6%. This growth is expected due to a healthy project pipeline, increasing international business, and a higher share of margin-accretive segments like operations and maintenance.

International projects make up half of Wabag's revenue, but rising tensions in the key Middle East market are a concern. Chairman Rajiv Mittal calmed concerns here, saying, "None of our projects in the region, whether in the construction stage or those that we are operating and maintaining, are affected at the moment. They are far away from American bases."

While regional risks persist, the global push for water security fuels Wabag's outlook. During the Q3 earnings call, Group CFO Skandaprasad Seetharaman had highlighted the company’s broad reach: "While the Middle East and Africa will lead the pack... we are spread across all the emerging markets, whether it is Middle East, Africa, CIS, Southeast Asia and South Asia.”

Despite geopolitical worries, Motilal Oswal maintained its ‘Buy’ rating with a Rs 1,900 price target. The firm noted that Wabag's work continues unaffected by regional conflict because water projects are essential. They expect a CAGR of 17% in revenue and 23% in net profit over FY26–28.

2. Tata Steel:

The stock of this iron and steel products company closed 3.3% higher on March 20 as global brokerages labeled the recent 7–8% decline in steel stocks since February a prime “buying opportunity.” Macquarie Group highlighted that the 12–13% rise in steel prices since mid-December 2025 is now reflecting in margins, with profit per tonne increasing from $260 to around $340, supported by strong domestic demand, higher regional prices, and moderating Chinese output.

After the government invoked the Essential Commodities Act to divert the majority of gas supply to priority sectors, steelmakers have been facing a shortage of the propane and butane needed for high-margin coated products. To navigate these Middle East-linked supply gaps, Tata Steel is pivoting toward finished, high-value products to protect its bottom line. This shift aims to boost profit margins while reducing the company’s reliance on restricted, volatile fuel imports.

Tata Group Chairman N Chandrasekaran expressed hope that the Iran conflict will not disrupt supply chains. While Tata Steel relies on West Asia for limestone, the company already has a deep inventory and is actively diversifying sources. He admits there might be some minor "fluctuations," but remains confident that a full recovery is around the corner and the supply chain will hold steady.

Corporate streamlining is also in full swing. On March 17, its board approved the merger of its subsidiary, Neelachal Ispat Nigam, into itself to boost efficiency and better utilize its facilities. It also greenlit a $2 billion (Rs 18,488.1 crore) investment in its Singapore-based arm, T Steel Holdings, starting FY27. This capital will support global operations and help manage debt as the company scales.

HSBC maintained a 'Buy' rating on Tata Steel with a higher target price of Rs 250. The brokerage noted that the UK has recently introduced import safeguards, including a 50% tariff and sharply reduced quotas, to support its steel sector amid concerns over global overcapacity. As a result, Tata Steel now benefits from multi-year import protections across its key markets. Tata Steel has substantial exposure to Europe through its major manufacturing operations in the Netherlands and the UK.

3. GAIL:

This utility company fell 6.2% over the past week after an Iranian missile struck Ras Laffan, a key global LNG export hub. With GAIL relying on imports for roughly half of its gas needs, the disruption raises concerns over supply and pricing.

This impact is already visible in recent deals. The company secured LNG cargo from Oman at a steep 95% premium to its usual rates, showing that prices have already started reacting to supply risks. Much of GAIL’s gas is sold under fixed or semi-fixed price contracts, which means sudden spikes in LNG costs cannot always be passed on immediately.

While demand from fertilisers and city gas distribution supports volumes, greater reliance on spot cargoes during tight markets can push up costs quickly. Reflecting these pressures, Forecaster estimates for Q4FY26 net profit have been cut by over 17% over the past 60 days. The stock also appears in a screener of companies with declining profits over the past four quarters.

CFO & Director R.K. Jain said the company looks for the cheapest available gas as it operates in a price-sensitive market. “We evaluate all available options and choose what is most competitive,” he said. He added that GAIL expects to keep earnings from gas sales close to Rs 4,000 crore this year, even if prices remain high, as it looks to stabilise earnings despite margin pressure.

Geojit reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a lower target price of Rs 175. The cut reflects weaker near-term earnings as higher LNG costs have reduced profitability in gas trading and pushed the petrochemical segment into losses. However, the brokerage expects margins to improve once LNG prices ease, with earnings recovery likely to be driven more by cost normalisation than volume growth.

4. Varun Beverages:

Thisbeverage manufacturer rose over 2% on Wednesday after announcing the acquisition of South Africa-based Crickley Dairy for Rs 132 crore. The deal marks its entry into dairy and juice-based beverages, expanding beyond its core carbonated drinks portfolio.

This follows earlier international expansions, including theTwizza acquisition, as the company aims to double its market share in key African markets to 20% by 2027. Partnerships such as its tie-up with Carlsberg for beer distribution further strengthen its presence beyond PepsiCo products.

Despite a weaker-than-usual summer and an early monsoon, the company metForecaster estimates for2025. Forecaster expects revenue and net profit to grow in the mid-teens in 2026. BofA remains positive, citing strong capacity additions and a favourable demand outlook from a hotter-than-usual summer.

Carbonated soft drinks stillcontribute over 70% of total revenue, though diversification is underway, with over a quarter of sales now coming from packaged water and other beverages. International markets contribute about one-third of revenue, with South Africa emerging as a key growth driver. President & Director Raj Gandhi said the region could become a “star territory,” with growth of 80% or more this year.

After investing Rs 4,500 crore in CY25 towards greenfield plants and backward integration, the company is now shifting focus to improving utilisation and driving operating leverage. Chairman Ravi Jaipuriasaid, “In India, we are not looking for any major capex this year… we already have enough capacity.” As new facilities stabilise, higher volumes are expected to support margins and cash generation.

The stock features in ascreener of street favourites with high analyst ratings and over 20% upside potential. Motilal Oswalmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 550, citing its move into a multi-category consumer platform spanning beverages, snacks, dairy, and beer as a key growth driver.

5. Aarti Industries:

This specialty chemicals stock climbed 3.7% on March 12 after the company signed a $150 million (~Rs 1,385 crore) multi-year deal with a global agrochemical firm. Under this contract, Aarti Industries will manufacture and supply a key chemical ingredient used in crop protection.

Earlier this month, Aarti Industries also announced Rs 200–250 crore of investments over the next two years. The company will build a new plant at Dahej in Gujarat to produce its own raw materials. This move allows the firm to control the entire production process and cuts down raw material and freight costs.

However, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has created headwinds. The Middle East remains a vital market for the company's export strategy. This reliance exposes the firm to regional instability and shipping issues.

The region generated about 23% of total revenue in FY25, up from 18% in FY24. During the Q2FY26 earnings call, management had explained that they shifted exports toward the Middle East, Europe, and Africa to offset heavy US tariffs. This shift increased the Middle East's share of total sales. Unfortunately, the war has disrupted vital trade routes in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, causing shipment delays and driving up freight costs.

To support future growth, management raised its FY26 capex target to Rs 1,100 crore from Rs 1,000 crore. The extra funds will primarily help develop the Zone-4 facility, which will produce advanced chemicals for the pharmaceutical and agriculture sectors.

Buoyed by these strong expansion plans, CEO Suyog Kotecha said, “We are confident of achieving our FY28 EBITDA guidance of about Rs 2,000 crore, driven by ongoing cost optimisation, ramp up of existing capacities and phased commissioning of multipurpose plants.”

After the start of the Middle East war, BE Equities remained positive on Aarti Industries, noting that it is well-positioned to benefit from the rising demand for value-added chemical products. However, the brokerage adds that individual outcomes will depend on execution, product mix, and capex discipline.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

20 Mar 2026

Running strait into trouble: the oil shock hits India hard

By Tejas MD

Nifty 50 hasn’t posted a monthly gain since December 2025. Investors continue to wait. Positive events like the Santa rally, the new year and the US trade deal provided brief bumps before fizzling out.

The problem isn’t made in India. The challenge for the market is Trumpian, caused first by his tariffs and then his attack on Iran.

Oil prices have jumped as the bombs fell, and Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz and cutting the world off from oil and gas supplies. As prices head north, Trump has tried multiple ways to calm markets, from claiming that he has already 'won' the war (he hasn't), and demanding that countries send naval escorts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a request that was immediately turned down.

Like a child upset that others are not playing with him, Trump reacted to the mass refusal from allies by saying that the US doesn’t need anyone else's help anyway. Meanwhile, Brent crude has flirted with $119 per barrel, the highest level since 2022.

So what does this oil shock mean for India?

Let’s dive in.

Black gold gets more expensive for everyone

The Iran war has given the Strait of Hormuz instant celebrity status. The narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman carries 20% of the world’s oil. In normal times, the strait is so crowded with ships and boats that it feels like you can walk across the boat decks from one side to the other, "without getting your feet wet".

But right now the strait is nearly empty, after Iran planted mines and threatened to attack any ship that crosses the waterway without approval. India imports 85% of its crude oil, and more than half of it comes through this chokepoint.

India’s oil reserves can cover roughly 45 days of demand, compared to about three months for China and nearly eight months for Japan. So in a prolonged disruption, India runs out of its oil cushion faster than its neighbours.

Oil prices are rising with every day of the conflict

This war is turning out to be an especially expensive one. Analysts estimate that the conflict is adding $3–$6 per barrel per day to crude oil prices. Over a week, that comes to a $15–$30 spike.

The stress is far worse in the physical market. Physical crude is already trading at a premium of over $38 per barrel, which is a clear signal of real supply tightness.

Meanwhile, the futures curve is telling us a story about expectations: near-term contracts are expensive, but December prices are about $20 lower than May, indicating that markets still expect the disruption to be temporary. If that assumption changes, prices could move even higher.

Oil could stabilise around $95–$100 if tensions ease. If disruptions persist with a prolonged conflict, $140–$150 is not unrealistic, and at those levels, global demand destruction begins and shortages start to happen. Jet fuel prices are already soaring, since jet fuel has specific storage requirements and reserves run dry quickly.

The shock doesn’t stop at oil

Gas is the second pressure point for India. Nearly half of India’s gas supply is imported, and Qatar alone, which ships through the Hormuz strait, accounts for about 47% of those imports.

Gas consumption is concentrated in fertilisers and city gas distributors, which means the impact quickly moves from agriculture and industry, to households. The shock becomes visible in everyday life.

Fertilisers are among the most vulnerable. Nitrogen-based fertilisers rely heavily on natural gas, so when gas prices rise, the cost of producing urea and ammonia jumps, pushing up food production costs.

Overall, a 10% increase in crude prices can shave 20–25 basis points off GDP growth and push inflation up by 35–40 basis points, as per an SBI report.

If oil sustains above $100, it could knock off close to a percentage point from GDP growth.

India's weakening currency adds to the pressure. A weaker rupee makes dollar-denominated oil imports more expensive, amplifying the shock across the economy.

Higher oil prices also complicate monetary policy. With inflation risks rising, central banks have less room to cut rates.

Corporate earnings don’t escape this either. If crude remains elevated, earnings growth expectations for FY27 could slip to less than 10%, from the current 12–14% range.

From fuel to food: the ripple effect

Domestic fuel prices haven’t surged yet, as the government has kept retail petrol and diesel prices largely unchanged. Since prices weren’t cut earlier when crude fell, there is some buffer to absorb the shock.

But that buffer comes at a cost. Oil marketing companies like BPCL and HPCL are now caught in a squeeze, with higher priced crude, but limited ability to pass it on. Margins will take a hit, and that’s already visible in their stock prices, which have fallen over 20% in the past month.

Airlines, logistics, cement & construction and transportation also see immediate cost pressures. Fertiliser plants are scaling down or shutting temporarily due to supply constraints. Lower output risks weaker harvests, which can feed directly into food inflation.

The impact is also hitting manufacturing industries. Companies like Hindalco have halted production due to gas shortages.

As oil and oil products flow through the economy, higher costs touch everything, from inflation to interest rates, to corporate earnings and household expenses. A narrow shipping lane thousands of kilometres away is impacting how much you spend right now, almost everywhere.

The Baseline

20 Mar 2026

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - March 20, 2026

By Abdullah Shah

1. Hindustan Copper:

Anand Rathi reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this copper producer with a target price of Rs 650 per share, a 31.8% upside. The Israel-Iran conflict has a neutral to positive impact on operations. Hindustan Copper is India’s sole copper ore miner, holding over 80% of the country's reserves. Its vertically integrated business model serves the domestic market. Geopolitical instability could increase global copper prices, directly boosting the company’s realisations.

Analysts Parthiv Jhonsa and Prakhar Khajanchi remain positive on Hindustan Copper’s medium-term growth, driven by capacity expansion and rising copper prices. Management highlighted expansion plans to reach 4.4 million tonnes (MT) of capacity by the end of FY26, up from 3.5 MT. These estimates included volume from the Kendadih and Kolihan mines; however, regulatory approval delays pushed back operations by a few quarters.

Jhonsa and Khajanchi expect copper price volatility in the near term. However, strong demand from emerging sectors like energy transition, e-mobility, and renewable energy infrastructure should support long-term copper consumption. They expect the company to deliver a revenue CAGR of 58.3% and a net profit CAGR of 83.4% over FY26-28.

2. DOMS Industries:

ICICI Securities upgrades this stationery products manufacturer to a ‘Buy’ call, with a target price of Rs 2,500 per share, an upside of 15.9%. Analysts Aniruddha Joshi and Manan Goyal say the Middle East contributes less than 2% of revenue. So, any disruption has a limited impact, as losses can be offset by domestic sales or export markets.

The key risk is cost, not demand. Polymers and crude-linked inputs make up 40–50% of raw material costs. Rising crude prices could pressure margins in the short-term. However, the company plans price hikes to offset this impact over time, and holds 25–30 days of raw material inventory to manage immediate cost volatility.

Management anticipates 18–20% revenue growth in FY26 with EBITDA margins of 16.5–17.5%. Strong distribution and brand presence drive domestic demand, while the back-to-school season boosts volume. Joshi and Goyal highlight well-diversified exports (14–15% of revenue), which limit concentration risk. US exports (6–7% of exports) have stabilised after tariff issues, with orders coming back. They expect steady US market growth and maintain a positive view, supported by improving export trends.

3. Jupiter Life Line Hospitals (JLHL):

Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this healthcare facilities company, with a target price of Rs 1,600 per share, a 27% upside. Analysts Param Desai and Sanketa Kohale remain constructive, citing strong revenue and net profit growth. This growth comes from ramping up occupancy and expanding capacity.

Management confirmed the company will operationalise its South Pune greenfield hospital by 2028, followed by the Mira-Bhayandar project by 2029. Analysts believe these additions, along with scaling up existing facilities, will strengthen JLHL’s presence in Western India’s high-density markets. They add that limited large corporate hospitals in the Dombivli–Kalyan micro-market, combined with improving infrastructure and strong residential growth, position the unit to capture increasing demand.

Desai and Kohale highlight the Dombivali hospital’s target market: an 18-19 lakh population across the Dombivli–Kalyan–Ulhasnagar corridor in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). This region remains underpenetrated with limited organised tertiary care. Upcoming infrastructure and proximity to Palava city will support strong medium-term demand growth. They expect the firm to deliver revenue and net profit CAGRs of 17.9% and 9.3%, respectively, through FY28.

4. JSW Steel:

Motilal Oswal retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this iron & steel products manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 1,400 per share, an upside of 20%. Analysts Alok Deora and Sonu Upadhyay believe new capacity additions, strong domestic demand, and a rising share of value-added products position the company for revenue growth.

Management outlined an ambitious expansion plan, aiming for an overall capacity of 56 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by FY31, with India contributing about 50 MTPA. To achieve this, JSW Steel plans Rs 1 lakh crore in capex over the next 4-5 years. This investment will fund a new steel plant in Odisha, the Dolvi facility expansion, and value-added product portfolio diversification.

Due to Middle East disruptions, JSW Steel is diversifying its sources for coking coal. It acquired domestic blocks in Jharkhand, increased its stake to 30% in Australia’s Illawarra Metallurgical Coal, and will develop the Minas de Revuboè mine in Mozambique.

The company targets securing about 50% of its iron ore from captive sources and roughly 25% of coking coal through owned or long-term assets by FY31. Deora and Upadhyay emphasise that this raw material integration, alongside logistics infrastructure like slurry pipelines and port connectivity, will lower conversion costs and boost net profit. They expect the firm to deliver an 11.2% revenue CAGR and an 85.1% net profit CAGR through FY28.

5. Federal Bank:

Axis Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 290, an upside of 9.6%. The Israel-Iran war poses a slightly negative risk. While the bank has no direct exposure, its 29% reliance on NRI deposits creates potential risk if disruptions affect remittance flows or deposit growth.

Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya and Abhishek Pandya note Q3 saw improved net interest margins (NIMs) from a better loan mix. The bank aims to boost current account and savings account (CASA) deposits. NIMs might face near-term pressure from delayed rate cuts, but should remain stable.

Management expects stable asset quality, projecting credit costs at 55–60 bps for FY26. The bank sees steady loan segment growth and plans to expand its loan book 1.2–1.5 times nominal GDP growth, suggesting roughly 16% growth in FY27. Vaidya and Pandya foresee gradual profitability gains, with return on assets rising to 1.3–1.4% by FY27–28, up from 1.1% in FY26. Better risk-adjusted loan growth, improved margins from a favourable mix, a stronger deposit franchise, and higher fee income will drive this.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

19 Mar 2026

Superstar investors pay the price for crowded bets

By Anagh Keremutt

Global risks are driving Indian markets this year. The Iran conflict has pushed Brent crude oil prices above $112 as of this writing, while countries wrestle for increasingly scarce oil and gas cargoes.This kind of volatility doesn’t spare even the biggest investors, and superstar portfolios are taking hits.

Over the past three months, many superstar investors’ portfolios have come under pressure largely because they were exposed to similar segments of the market. As these pockets weakened, the impact showed up fast. In most cases, just a few stocks drove the decline.

The other problem is that superstar investors also have favourite sectors, and lean towards them. As a result, many portfolios were concentrated in the same areas. When those segments fell, several holdings dropped together. Changes made during Q3FY26, whether additions or exits, did not always reduce this concentration. This increased the downside in several portfolios.

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at what drove the fall in superstar investors’ net worth.

Why portfolio declines widened across investors

The net worth of superstars has been quite volatile, with some falling more sharply than others. Investors who peaked recently have seen smaller drawdowns. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio is down around 7.9%, while Nemish Shah is down about 11.3%.

Those who peaked earlier have seen sharper declines. Vijay Kedia and Premji and Associates are both down close to 47%, while Madhusudan Kela is down over 50%.

The difference comes down to timing and positioning.

Mukul Agrawal maintained an active approach during the December quarter. He acquired new shares in Allcargo Logistics, Hindustan Construction, Sirca Paints, and Sudeep Pharma. He also completely exited his position in Stanley Lifestyles.

However, these decisions failed to address the main risks in his portfolio. About 30% of his portfolio remained tied to Neuland Laboratories, Nuvama Wealth, and ASM Technologies, along with a few other holdings.

In Q3FY26, Neuland’s margins came under pressure due to product mix and higher costs, even as revenue grew. Nuvama saw lower capital markets revenue as volumes softened. ASM Technologies reported strong growth, but the stock corrected as AI disruption concerns dragged tech stocks lower.

Sunil Singhania purchased shares in DCM Shriram Fine Chemicals and DCM Shriram International in the December quarter. Simultaneously, he sold his stakes in TTK Healthcare and Denta Water.

The fall for Singhania came from a few key stocks over the last three months. IIFL Capital, which has over 10% weight in the portfolio, fell around 13% as trading volumes and deal activity weakened.

Mastek and Shriram Pistons, which together hold over 12% weight, also moved lower during the same period. Mastek dropped over 32% as IT stocks fell due to AI concerns, while Shriram Pistons slipped nearly 4%.

Ashish Kacholia added TechEra Engineering and Adcounty Media to his holdings, clearing smaller positions to make room.

Kacholia’s fall was driven by weakness in a few large holdings. Beta Drugs and Safari Industries, which together form about 12% of the portfolio, fell sharply over the last three months. Beta Drugs dropped nearly 31% as growth slowed after a strong run, while Safari Industries fell around 28% due to weaker demand in its luggage business.

High concentration leads to wealth erosion

Akash Bhanshali executed almost no changes to his holdings aside from a minor sale of Amber Enterprises. Nearly 30% of his total money rested entirely in Gujarat Fluorochemicals. This firm produces cooling system gases for global distribution.

Export demand for Gujarat Fluoro softened just as manufacturing costs for these gases rose. This squeezed margins and pushed the stock down 11% over the past three months. Since this single stock formed such a large part of his portfolio, the impact was significant.

Bhanshali lacked other stable investments to balance out this loss. His single-stock strategy worked in a rising market but turned into a drawback when the chemical sector weakened. Allocating too much money to one specific theme increased his overall risk.

Vijay Kedia adopted a different approach but got a similar result. He avoided placing one massive bet as Bhanshali did. Instead, he distributed his money among smaller stocks like Atul Auto, Neuland Laboratories, and Elecon Engineering. On paper, this seemed to be a safe mix of different companies.

However, most of these businesses depend on industrial demand. As the economic environment cooled, these companies faced pressure. This led to a 15% fall in his portfolio since the previous quarter. The mix appeared diversified, but did not protect against a sector slowdown.

Kedia attempted to adjust by acquiring additional shares in Patel Engineering and Om Infra. He also sold his stake in Precision Camshafts to free up cash. These changes provided little relief, as his new additions were also in the construction sector. Patel Engineering subsequently reported a 12% YoY drop in net profit in Q3FY26 as its cost of raw material increased.

True diversification offers better protection

Recent declines show that owning multiple stocks does not ensure safety. Madhusudan Kela experienced a 32% decline in his net worth over the past quarter. He maintained a small group of stocks that shared similar business risks. Attempting to sell these shares in a falling market reduced his returns further.

His decline was sharper because he lacked large, reliable companies to provide stability. Premji and Associates’ portfolio fell 28% over the last three months. However, the decline in their wealth was more gradual. Their investments reside almost entirely in IT giant Wipro, which has faced pressure from rising competition in AI-led tools.

Certain investors navigated the period with lower losses due to careful planning. The Rakesh Jhunjhunwala portfolio maintained relative stability throughout this market phase. Stocks like Titan and Canara Bank anchor this portfolio. These businesses held up even when the overall market weakened.

Superstar investors are not immune to market downturns, and their portfolios can also take a hit. But some boats took on more water.