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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    16 Jan 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 16, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 16, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Premier Energies:

    This electrical equipment maker rose 3.9% on January 12 after announcing a Rs 11,000 crore capex to more than double its solar manufacturing capacity. The company plans to increase annual solar cell capacity to 10.6 gigawatts (GW) from 3.2 GW and module capacity to 11.1 GW from 5.1 GW across its four units.

    As part of this expansion, Premier Energies has started backward integration by making ingots and wafers. In simple terms, ingots are used to make wafers, wafers are used to make cells, and cells are assembled into modules.

    Vinay Rustagi, Chief Business Officer, said, “The expansion is driven by rising demand in India and overseas. We have a domestic order book of Rs 13,000 crore and are fully booked for the next one year.” He added that the company started exporting solar cells to the US in Q3. The US market remains undersupplied on the cell side, and the company is evaluating opportunities for local manufacturing.

    On the same day (January 12), China said it would cancel or sharply reduce tax rebates on several export products, including solar cells, from April 2026. Analysts see this as a positive development for non-Chinese solar manufacturers.

    While Premier Energies has limited export exposure, its peer Waaree Energies is more export-focused and may benefit more from the China policy shift. Over the past six months, Premier Energies has fallen 35.5%, compared with a decline of over 20% in Waaree Energies. Analysts noted that Waaree reported stronger Q2 growth, while Premier’s revenue missed estimates.

    ICICI Securities has a ‘Buy’ rating on Premier Energies, citing its strong balance sheet and ability to generate around Rs 8,000 crore in operating cash flow over the next three years. The brokerage also highlighted Premier’s experience in running solar cell facilities, which it sees as a key edge over peers.

    2. HDFC Asset Management Company:

    Thisasset management company rose over 2% on Wednesday after delivering a strongQ3FY26 performance. Both revenue and net profit grew 20% YoY, beatingForecaster estimates by a healthy margin. Assets under management surged 19% and crossed Rs 9 trillion during the quarter, with equities accounting for about two-thirds of the total, well above the industry average.

    Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) are keeping retail participation high. Monthly SIP inflows hit a record in December, with SIP assets now forming about one-fifth of industry AUM. At the company level, SIP AUM reached Rs 2.2 trillion in Q3, accounting for over 23% of total assets. This highlights the ongoing financialisation of household savings despite relatively muted market returns over the past year.

    MD & CEO Navneet Munot asserts distribution strength as their key differentiator, since HDFC Bank provides the AMC business with significant muscle. Hesays, “Equity market share through the HDFC Bank channel is in the high 20s, compared to about 13% at the industry level.” SIP penetration through this channel is even deeper, driving long-term growth. Munot also pointed to fintech platforms as a growing avenue, with the company building a strong presence as SIP registrations scale across digital channels.

    Beyond mutual funds, alternative platforms are gradually scaling up. PMS assets have crossed Rs 50 billion, while the structured credit AIF achieved a first close with the International Finance Corporation as an anchor investor. Munot said these businesses are being built “with a long-term perspective, where capability building and scale get priority over immediate margins.”

    Deven Chokseyreiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on the firm with a target price of Rs 2,957. The brokerage expects HDFC AMC to sustain high profitability despite regulatory changes to expense ratios, supported by operating leverage, disciplined cost control, and scale benefits. It projects revenue growth of over 15% annually through 2028, with net profit margins remaining comfortably above 70%.

    3. Tata Elxsi:

    The stock of this IT consulting & software company declined by over 4% on January 14 following the release of its Q3FY26 results. The company reported a sharp 45.3% YoY decline in net profit to Rs 108.9 crore, primarily due to higher employee benefit costs. Despite the bottom-line pressure, revenue saw a marginal uptick of 2.1% to Rs 999.5 crore, supported by steady growth in software development and services. The stock features on a screener of companies where promoters are decreasing their shareholding.

    The company’s net profit missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 29.7%. This miss was largely due to a 110 basis-point hit from wage hikes for junior and mid-level staff, alongside one-time provisions of approximately Rs 95.7 crore, related to India's new labour codes, which required increased employee benefit provisions. Despite these bottom-line pressures, the EBITDA margin expanded by 220 basis points sequentially to reach 23.3%, fueled by better workforce utilization. Geographically, growth was steady in the US and Europe, though the Indian market struggled due to weakness among automotive suppliers.

    Tata Elxsi’s growth was driven by the transportation segment, particularly through Software-Defined Vehicle (SDV) deals with global equipment manufacturers. SDVs are vehicles in which software, rather than hardware, controls core functions, enabling remote updates and new digital features. A key milestone was the January 7 partnership with Chinese OEM Autolink, which involves the integration of Tata Elxsi’s AVENIR SDV suite with Autolink’s intelligent cockpit platform.

    The Media and Communications segment saw a minor 0.3% revenue dip due to seasonal furloughs and delayed deals, though demand remains stable. While large contracts are scaling, client decision-making remains slow. CEO Manoj Raghavan expects recovery signs in Media and Healthcare segments by Q4, with a “meaningful turnaround” projected for FY27. 

    Brokerage firm Deven Choksey maintained a ‘Sell’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 5,192. While acknowledging the strong momentum in Transportation, the brokerage noted that recoveries in the Media and Healthcare segments are still dependent on the deal pipeline. Key factors to monitor heading into FY27 include the stability of major clients, the conversion of new media bids, and the company's ability to maintain high utilization and margins.

    4. ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company:

    ICICI Lombard’s stock fell 1.5% last week afterQ3FY26 net profit missedForecaster estimates by 14.4%. The miss was caused by higher claims and operating costs, not weak demand. 

    Gross premiums rose 5.6% YoY, led by motor and health, while net profit increased 13.4% due to higher investment income. Margin pressure came from the core insurance business. The combined ratio rose 130 basis points to 104.2%, meaning the company spent more on claims and expenses than it earned in premiums. Despite this, ICICI Lombard outperformed the industry, where average combined ratios are close to 119%.

    Retail health claims rose after the GST waiver drove a surge in first-time buyers, who typically claim more in the initial months; Yes Securities expects claims to normalise over the next 3–5 quarters. Vehicle sales grew about 19% in Q3, but premium growth lagged due to a shift toward smaller, cheaper cars.

    CEO Sanjeev Mantrisays, “Over the next few quarters, motor growth will be driven by renewals and selective new business rather than headline vehicle sales.” He adds, “In retail health, we will adjust prices and benefits to bring claim costs back to our target of keeping loss ratios below 70%.” A lower loss ratio means fewer claims relative to premiums. CFO Gopal Balachandran notes that, “Motor loss ratios at 66.3% remain within guidance, and retail health loss ratios are improving sequentially.” 

    Yes Securities hasreiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a lower target price of Rs 2,300, implying a 22% upside. The assessment hinges on ICICI Lombard’s execution of pricing and portfolio plans and a normalisation of health claims, supporting profitability that remains stronger than the broader loss-making industry.

    5. Bank of Maharashtra:

    This PSU bank stock rose over the past week to a fresh 52-week high of Rs 67.7 after delivering a strong Q3FY26 performance. Revenue grew 16.4% YoY, supported by healthy growth in deposits and advances, while net profit jumped 23.1%. Lower slippages, provisioning, and employee costs boosted net profit.

    The bank also beat Forecaster estimates in revenue and net profit with a healthy margin. Gross advances expanded 19.6%, driven by sustained demand in retail, vehicle, housing, and gold loans. Agriculture lending recovered after a weak second quarter as the bank pivoted toward investment-linked loans. On the liability side, growth in low-cost CASA and term deposits supported overall deposit mobilisation.

    However, loan growth outpaced deposits, pushing the credit-to-deposit (CD) ratio to 85%. While this signals strong credit demand, it could tighten liquidity and raise funding costs if it continues. Asset quality has improved, with gross NPAs declining by 20 basis points. This helped the bank cut provisions by 13.4%, supporting profitability.

    MD & CEO Nidhu Saxen reiterated confidence in the bank’s operating metrics. “We are confident of sustaining our net interest margin at 3.8%, with a CD ratio of 83–84%,” he said. He added that the focus on low-cost deposits, branch expansion, and deposit refinancing should help protect margins despite tighter liquidity conditions.

    Brokerage Systematix remains positive on the stock and has retained a ‘Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 80, implying an upside of over 20.2%. The brokerage cites strong loan growth, improving asset quality, and benefits from deposit repricing as key drivers.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    15 Jan 2026
    Nifty 50 outlook: Hopes rise for 2026 after a volatile year

    Nifty 50 outlook: Hopes rise for 2026 after a volatile year

    By Anagh Keremutt

    Brokerages are entering 2026 with cautious optimism on Indian equities. The Nifty 50 saw sharp swings last year as foreign investors pulled out, but buying by domestic investors helped limit the damage and kept the market afloat.

    What has changed in 2026 is the earnings picture. Companies have largely stopped cutting profit estimates, which was a major market concern. As Sunil Koul, Head of Equity Strategy at Goldman Sachs, put it, the “year-long earnings downgrade cycle has bottomed out,” suggesting that the worst may be over.

    Still, the choppy 2025 market showed that domestic buying alone cannot drive a rally. Global interest rates, geopolitical stability, foreign investor behaviour and the speed of profit recovery will decide the upside.

    Superstar investor Vijay Kedia said, “2025 reminded investors that markets move in cycles, and expecting consistently high returns every year is unrealistic. The correction was necessary to restore balance. Going ahead, earnings rather than stories will decide which stocks perform in a more selective market.”

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at what brokerages expect from the Nifty 50 by the end of 2026, why their views differ, and how these forecasts compare with what they got right and wrong at the start of 2025.

    Last year’s market sets the tone for 2026

    At the start of 2025, most brokerages forecast the Nifty 50 between the low 26,000s and high 28,000s for the end of the year. Global houses like Goldman Sachs, Citi, Bank of America and Jefferies largely sat around 26,000–27,000, while domestic brokers such as ICICI Direct and Bajaj Broking were more optimistic, calling for levels near 29,000.

    The market ended somewhere in the middle. The Nifty 50 touched a record high of about 26,326 in early December before easing. Conservative forecasts were closer to the actual number, while the bullish calls overshot. For the year, the index gained 2,484.8 points or 10.5%, a decent return but far from a breakout rally.

    The miss was not driven by a crash. There were plenty of reasons why: earnings recovery was slower than expected, and foreign investors remained cautious. Domestic mutual funds absorbed much of the selling but could not fully offset weak global sentiment. 

    Strategists note that domestic flows limited the downside, but did not create the upside. This lesson is shaping 2026 expectations.

    Earnings shape Nifty 50 forecasts for 2026

    In 2025, domestic brokerages were more bullish than global firms and overshot. For 2026, the balance has flipped. Global brokerages are more optimistic, while domestic firms are cautious, shaped by last year’s miss and a sharper focus on earnings.

    Brokerages agree on one point: any gains in 2026 are set to be earnings-led. Most large houses forecast the Nifty 50 ending the year with a 10–15% rise from current levels. Jefferies and Citi are slightly more cautious, while Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Nomura expect the index to reach the upper 28,000s to around 29,300.

    Domestic brokers broadly agree with this range. Kotak targets just above 29,000, while Axis Securities is slightly more conservative. Even the most optimistic projections assume steady progress, not a sharp jump.

    But brokers are no longer counting on big foreign inflows or soaring valuations. Instead, their focus is on earnings, domestic liquidity, and supportive economic conditions.

    Citi describes this as a “Goldilocks” scenario: growth stays strong, inflation is low, and interest rates ease. JP Morgan’s Rajiv Batra adds that “trade deals and earnings recovery could help mid-sized companies benefit from lower borrowing costs and improved sentiment.”

    Yet caution rules. BofA Securities expects markets to inch higher mainly because Indian investors continue to invest, not because stocks are suddenly cheap. Their forecast assumes stable valuations and moderate profit growth. Gains are expected, but not fireworks.

    Optimistic firms such as Kotak Securities, JP Morgan, and Jefferies favour cyclical sectors like real estate, utilities, IT, and telecom, citing improving demand and credit growth. More cautious brokers like Axis Securities and Citi prefer banks, consumption, healthcare and autos, focusing on predictable domestic demand and improving rural trends.

    Why views differ

    Brokerage targets of roughly 28,000 to just over 30,000 reflect different views on three main risks. Kotak and JP Morgan foresee a two-stage improvement in earnings, with modest growth in FY26 followed by stronger momentum in FY27. Others, like Axis and Citi, expect slower progress.

    Global liquidity is another factor. Earlier US rate cuts could bring foreign investors back, while delays may keep inflows weak and cap market gains.

    Finally, a US–India trade deal could boost markets, but most brokers do not assume this in their base forecasts. Nomura illustrates this balance, seeing India’s 2025 underperformance as a correction from stretched valuations. 2026? That will depend on earnings growth and policy stability. It’s back to basics.

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    The Baseline
    15 Jan 2026
    The top five: Analysts pick their winners for Q3

    The top five: Analysts pick their winners for Q3

    By Tejas MD

    Almost immediately after Nifty 50hit an all-time high on January 5, it lost steam and fell for the next five trading sessions. No prizes for guessing why: it was another of Trump’s tariff tantrums, which have effectively become India’s new macro risk index.

    FY26 feels like a tug-of-war between fundamentals on one side and trade threats on the other. The newly arrived US Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, tried to calm everyone's nerves by calling India an “essential partner,” which sparked a brief bounce on Monday. But he was undermined the very next day, when President Trump threatened a 25% tariff on any nation trading with Iran, putting all ongoing trade talks with countries from China to South Korea to India in jeopardy.

    Trump has become a source of intraday volatility that even corporate earnings can’t compete with.

    Call me old-school. The real challenge for me is not the tariff drama, but figuring out which Indian companies will keep their momentum going with strong Q3 numbers. Let’s find out.

    The Q3 frontrunners: Analysts pick their top five

    We shortlist five stocks from the Nifty 500 that are expected to post high revenue and net profit growth YoY and QoQ in Q3FY26 results, according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. These companies have already set the bar high with strong Q2 results.

    The auto sector is looking strong here, with three of five stocks — Maruti Suzuki, Craftsman Automation and CEAT. The other two stocks are Narayana Hrudayalaya and Larsen & Toubro.

    All five stocks have outpaced the Nifty 500 over the past year.

    The stocks in focus have either ‘Good’ or ‘Medium’ scores across the Durability, Valuation, and Momentum categories. 

    Auto demand has been strong, benefiting from GST cuts and a steady stream of new launches. The hospital sector also continues to see healthy traction, with higher occupancies, complex procedures, and new capacity driving growth. Meanwhile, infrastructure companies like L&T are riding the wave of higher government spending on infrastructure projects and the renewable-energy transition. 

    NH spreads its wings with its UK acquisition

    This healthcare provider is seeing impressive growth. High-value cardiac and oncology care, rising per bed revenue and its lean hospital model are set to boost Narayana Hrudayalaya’s Q3 performance.

    Domestic hospitals are the main growth engine, with higher surgical throughput and better utilisation lifting margins. The Cayman Islands business is a steady profit maker. But the big milestone is the company’s entry into the UK through the acquisition of Practice Plus Group Hospitals.

    Practice Plus gets around 93% of its revenue from UK’s public health system, NHS. NHS faces long waiting times for surgeries and even regular visits. Considering the backlog, Narayana expects its hospitals to benefit from both NHS contracts and private-pay patients.

    On the analyst call discussing the UK acquisition, Anesh Shetty, Managing Director at Health City Cayman Islands, said, “Private patients pay more than the NHS, so a good mix between the two would be the ideal outcome for us. Our intention is to increase non-NHS sources, and we expect to make good progress on that.” Management also guided to a medium-term ROCE of 20–22% by FY29–30.

    NHS however is a price sensitive market, and risks include domestic pricing regulations, wage inflation, and the challenge of integrating Practice Plus into a labour-tight UK market. Analysts however remain optimistic, citing strong domestic demand and the UK platform as a multi-year growth runway.

    In high gear: Maruti Suzuki sees strong growth in a tough market

    Maruti Suzuki is entering 2026 with solid momentum. Passenger vehicle volumes grew 37.3% YoY in December 2025, driven by strong domestic demand.

    In an increasingly competitive market, this workhorse brand has used its deep distribution network and wide product reach to hold on to its pole position as India’s largest carmaker.

    Indian customers are flocking to SUVs (the bigger and more intimidating the better), and the boom has reshaped the four-wheeler battleground. Tata Motors, Mahindra and Hyundai have scaled up in mid- to premium SUVs and crossovers. This has tightened the battle for market share, even as Maruti dominates in absolute volumes and maintains its strength in hatchbacks and compact cars.

    Analysts say that Maruti’s scale, multi-fuel strategy (petrol, CNG and hybrids) and fresh SUV portfolio should continue to drive volumes into FY26. But it needs to keep up with the competition, and the sector’s gradual shift to EVs.

    Craftsman Auto is cashing in on the capex boom

    Craftsman Automation is a diversified engineering company operating across automotive powertrain components, precision machining, etc. It supplies OEMs for passenger vehicles, tractors, and commercial vehicles.

    Premiumisation in the auto sector has taken off, boosting its margins. There is also higher aluminium content per vehicle, and more local buying of precision components. Craftsman’s vertically integrated casting and machining setup differentiates it from competitors who have outsourced these processes, allowing it to respond quickly to these trends while offering better cost and quality control.

    Srinivasan Ravi, Chairman & Managing Director of Craftsman Automation, said, “We are seeing large commitments from OEMs for new plants across the country. We are going to see the capacity with our existing customers growing around 50% in the next three years.”

    Rubber meets revenue, as CEAT goes premium

    This tyre manufacturer is leaning into premium tyres for SUVs, cars and upmarket two-wheelers, where demand and pricing are stronger than in the mass-market. This shift toward higher-value tyres has improved the company’s mix and helped its margins.

    On the demand side, replacement tyre sales are steady, while OEM orders have improved alongside domestic auto volumes.

    A big tailwind for CEAT has been lower input costs for rubber and crude-derived materials. This has boosted profitability, though management and analysts have both warned that input price softness is cyclical and could worsen as commodity markets turn.

    The competitive backdrop is also evolving, with other tyre-makers also focusing more on premium tyres. Risks for CEAT include raw material volatility, pricing pressure from OEMs and higher freight costs for export markets. CEAT derives around 20% of its revenue from exports. 

    L&T cements its growth story with infra capex and global orders

    Larsen & Toubro (L&T), India's engineering and infrastructure giant, reported strong revenue growth in Q2, with sectors like Hydrocarbon, Precision Engineering, and Heavy Engineering growing fast. International revenues now account for a significant share of the total.

    A key differentiator for L&T is its ability to execute complex, large-ticket contracts across geographies. The company has been more aggressive than its peers in bidding for offshore energy, industrial, and precision engineering projects, positioning itself alongside global EPC players rather than purely domestic contractors.

    Management commentary has highlighted healthy order inflows and sustained bid activity in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. The company continues to guide for steady growth in Q3 and into FY26, backed by a highly visible order book and better execution efficiency.

    Follow the latest Q3 results live here.

    Picture of the week

    We are starting a new section in the newsletter, which is an interesting image we came across during the week.

    This week's photo is of a coffin in Ghana, photographed during the funeral.

    The people of Ghana say that one must "celebrate death as we celebrate life". Their funerals are colorful, loud affairs, and include coffins shaped like pineapples, teapots, and Coca Cola bottles.


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    The Baseline
    09 Jan 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 9, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 9, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Tata Motors (TMCV):

    Thiscommercial vehicle manufacturer rose 6.4% over two trading sessions after itsbusiness update on January 1. The company reported a sharp rise in December sales, which surged 25% YoY to 42,508 units and climbed nearly 20% from the previous month.

    Managementsaid that growth was driven by stronger economic activity rather than temporary factors. MD and CEO Girish Wagh said sales momentum began with the GST 2.0 rollout and the festive season in Q2FY26, and continued into Q3FY26. He added that demand improved after the monsoon, as construction and mining activity picked up, alongside steady demand from core industries and the auto logistics sector.

    Looking ahead, Waghsaid, “We expect demand to strengthen in Q4FY26 across most commercial vehicle segments.” He added that “the government’s sustained infrastructure push” should drive demand in 2026.

    On November 12, 2025, TMCVlisted on the stock exchanges at a 26% premium following itsdemerger on 1st October fromTata Motors (now Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles). The demerger separates the fast-growing passenger vehicle and electric vehicle businesses from the more stable, cash-generating commercial vehicle (CV) business. The split allows investors to value the two businesses separately.

    One keychallenge for TMCV remains the light commercial vehicle (LCV) goods segment, where market share has fallen from around 40% in FY22 to around 28% in H1FY26. Mahindra & Mahindra has expanded aggressively here in pickups and small commercial vehicles.

    Facing pressure in the LCV segment, managementexpects a gradual market share recovery, supported by higher retail volumes, new launches, and the full pass-through of GST benefits to customers.

    InCred Equities recentlyupgraded the stock to “Add” with a target of Rs 513. The brokerage highlighted improving CV demand, GST-driven cost efficiencies, easing interest rates, and stronger industrial activity as factors that could support small truck demand and help Tata Motors regain market share through FY28.

    2. Divi's Laboratories:

    This pharma company rose 4.3% last week after Citi set a price target of Rs 9,140, implying an upside of nearly 38%. Citi said 2026 could be an “inflection year” for the company, as growth starts picking up after a slower period. The stock has gained around 12% over the past year.

    The brokerage expects Divi’s product pipeline to support growth over the next 12 months. This includes new GLP-1 products for obesity and diabetes that work in a similar way to popular weight-loss medicines such as Zepbound and semaglutide-based drugs, and are expected to be launched in 2026. The company’s ‘generics’ business (producing off-patent drugs) is also expected to bounce back as patents on several major global medicines expire.

    Citi noted that quarterly profits may remain uneven due to the nature of Divi’s B2B business. However, the long-term outlook remains positive. The brokerage believes the company’s revenue and EBITDA could triple or even quadruple over FY26-30.

    In Q2, Divi’s net profit and revenue beat Forecaster estimates by 15.3% and 4.4%, respectively. The generics segment, which accounts for about 44% of total revenue, continued to grow despite pricing pressure. The company managed this through backward integration, coupled with higher sales volume. Looking ahead, Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects Q4 net profit to rise 3.6% to Rs 615 crore, with revenue growth of 16%.

    CEO Kiran Divi said, “We are facing pricing pressure in the generics business, but volumes are stable. Pricing is expected to stabilise over the next few quarters, with backward integration at the Kakinada unit helping manage costs.”

    CEO Kiran Divi said, “We are facing pricing pressure in the generics business, but volumes are stable. Pricing is expected to stabilise over the next few quarters, with backward integration at the Kakinada unit (in Andhra Pradesh) helping manage costs.” He added that FY26 capex will be higher than the earlier guidance of Rs 2,000 crore, with Rs 1,550 crore already spent in H1FY26.

    3. Hindalco Industries:

    This aluminium company rose over 1% on January 6 after Geojit BNP Paribas upgraded its rating to 'Buy' with a target of Rs 1,034. The brokerage expects strong metal prices and rising domestic demand to support earnings in the coming months.

    Geojit said the company is strengthening its downstream business by making finished aluminium and copper products, which earn better margins than raw metal. Higher use of recycled metal is also helping cut costs and reduce earnings swings. This strategy led to a 69% jump in downstream margins in Q2. Rising domestic demand, lower GST, and firm global metal prices further support growth.

    Global aluminium and copper prices have risen sharply this year, reaching $2,979 per tonne and $12,466 per tonne, respectively. It’s worth noting here however, that metal prices tend to be volatile, and any pullback in a major market like China could force rapid downward moves. To protect margins amid price volatility, the company has locked in prices for 49% of its Q4FY26 aluminium sales at $2,760 per tonne.

    In Q2FY26, Hindalco’s revenue rose 13.5% YoY, driven by its India aluminium business and US-based subsidiary Novelis (industrial aluminum smelting company). Net profit increased 21%, supported by a better mix of higher-value products. 

    Hindalco’s Aditya Smelter Phase 2 project is expected to add 1.9 lakh tonnes (14% of existing capacity) of aluminium capacity by 2029. The company is also developing three captive coal mines, which are expected to start supplying power from 2026 and help lower energy costs. At Novelis, renewable energy capacity is set to nearly double by the end of the year, reducing operating costs and tariff risks.

    On these initiatives, CEO Satish Pai said, “The expansion should deliver healthy returns even if margins soften slightly. The focus remains on keeping net debt below 2x EBITDA while executing the Rs 83,000 crore capex programme through 2029.”

    4. Devyani International:

    This restaurant stock slid 9.7% over the past week as investors questioned whether the proposed merger with Sapphire Foods India could revive weak demand at existing outlets. Same-store sales declined across KFC and Pizza Hut stores operated by both companies in H1FY26, as intense local competition, aggressive discounting, and shifting consumer preferences have continued to hurt footfalls.

    On January 1, Devyani’s board approved the merger of Sapphire Foods with itself. Under the scheme, Sapphire shareholders will receive 177 Devyani shares for every 100 shares held. In addition, Arctic International, a Devyani subsidiary, will acquire an 18.5% stake in Sapphire, consolidating control over the combined business.

    As part of the broader transaction, Devyani will also acquire 19 KFC restaurants in Hyderabad for Rs 90 crore and pay a one-time fee of Rs 320 crore to Yum! Brands. This payment covers merger approvals, and grants Devyani rights to operate in new territories. Management expects the consolidation to improve scale and bargaining power across brands and geographies.

    Commenting on the merger’s impact, Promoter and Chairman Ravi Kant Jaipuria said, “The merged entity will have more than 3,000 stores globally and an annual turnover of approximately Rs 8,000 crore.” He added that the integration could generate annual cost savings of about Rs 220 crore from the second year onward through efficiencies in procurement, logistics, and overheads.

    Motilal Oswal remains constructive on the long-term benefits of the merger and maintains a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 180. It expects the combined entity to accelerate store expansion, lower raw-material costs, and improve operating leverage. The brokerage forecasts revenue growth of about 12% and EBITDA growth of over 15% annually over FY26–28.

    Recent financial performance, however, remains mixed. In Q2FY26, Devyani reported revenue growth of 12.6% YoY, aided by new store additions and the acquisition of Sky Gate Hospitality (parent co of Biryani By Kilo, Goila Butter Chicken, and The Bhojan). Yet the company posted a net loss due to elevated operating costs, higher raw-material prices such as cheese and flour, and lower margins from the newly acquired Sky Gate brands.

    5. Coal India (CIL):

    The stock of this coal & mining company rose by over 4% in the past week after its wholly owned subsidiary, Bharat Coking Coal (BCCL), announced its initial public offer (IPO). The Rs 1,071.1 crore issue, opening on January 9, is a complete offer-for-sale, with Coal India selling a 10% stake, or about 46.6 crore shares. The divestment is expected to generate around Rs 605 crore in profit, translating into a 130% return on investment.

    Director M.K. Agarwal stated that the IPO proceeds will fund CIL’s Rs 16,000 crore capital expenditure plan for FY26. Following a directive from the Prime Minister's Office, the company aims to list all eight of its subsidiaries by 2030 to improve transparency and unlock asset value.

    Operations in the second quarter were challenging, with revenue rising just 0.5% YoY due to an intense monsoon that disrupted mines in Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. Coal production between April and November 2025 reached 453.5 million tonnes, compared to 471 million tonnes in the same period last year.

    Looking forward, Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects a significant revenue surge of 18.8% in Q3FY26. This optimistic outlook is supported by a recovery in operational momentum following a weather-disrupted first half. Analysts from Kotak Securities highlight that while production was initially hamstrung by an extended monsoon, offtake volumes have remained remarkably steady through the third quarter. This suggests that end-user demand, particularly from power and steel sectors, has not weakened, even as global commodity cycles fluctuate. The stock appears in a screener of companies with rising net cash flow and cash from operating activity.

    Global brokerage firm Jefferies reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on Coal India and raised its target price to Rs 440, citing steady cash flows driven by demand from power and industrial users. It added that the stock remained an attractive defensive bet amid volatile metal prices.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    07 Jan 2026
    Don't be boring, unless you are an investor

    Don't be boring, unless you are an investor

    By Swapnil Karkare

    Flashy screens, juicy market gossip, watching the Mumbai skyline from a high-rise office while I juggled phone calls: when I first started work at a stock market brokerage, this was the life I imagined. Movies like The Wolf of Wall Streetmade it look fast and glamorous.

    But reality set in soon enough, that this is not what investing is. As my years in the stock market grew, it became clear that this job isn't meant to be exciting. In fact, excitement was usually a warning sign. The movies about the stock market were about as realistic as a Superman film.

    The Nobel prize winning economist Paul Samuelson liked to say that investing should be boring. “Investing should be like watching paint dry. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”

    Speaking of paint, the Asian Paints stock proves his point. This stock has been a boring compounder for decades. It doesn't double in a month like a crypto coin. But if you'd invested Rs. 10,000 in the stock in 2000 and forgot about it, it would be worth over Rs. 10 lakhs today, excluding dividends.

    If 'boring' makes money, why do we chase short term trends and excitement so much?



    People are impatient, and the internet has made it worse

    Humans aren't built to think about the long-term - we tend to be impulsive creatures. The part of the brain that helps us plan and be patient, the prefrontal cortex, evolved relatively late.  

    Andy Haldane, the former Executive Director at the Bank of England, has linked this late 'patience breakthrough' to prosperity. He argues that people didn't progress out of just skill or hard work, but because human society as a whole learned to hold off on immediate pleasures, and plan for the future. 

    But impatience still stalks us every day, and the internet has not helped. We hear buzz about AI or defence stocks, or a smallcap rumour, and we often don't stop to consider before we rejig our portfolios.

    Even experienced fund managers face this challenge. Because they have to show results every quarter, they end up chasing what’s hot right now. We say we want long-term wealth, but a small decline causes panic and a short rally feels meaningful.

    Based on the math however, such FOMO is bad for you. A popular story about the US brokerage Fidelity suggests that the best investor is the dead investor: in an internal study, Fidelity reportedly found that their best performing investor accounts belonged to people who were dead, or had forgotten their passwords.

    Fidelity never publicly confirmed this, but other studies show that investor accounts that trade the most tend to see lower returns than the overall market. Charlie Munger sums it up well: “The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.” Crypto or meme stocks might seem exciting, but sticking to steady options like index funds and long-term picks is what really grows money in the long run.

    Beta as a boredom metric

    One way to quantify boring investing is to look at a metric like beta, which measures a stock’s volatility compared to the overall market. 

    A stock with a beta of 2 typically moves at double the volatility of the index, moving 10% when the market moves 5%. A beta of 0.5 means a 2.5% move when the index moves 5%. So low-beta stocks have lower volatility than the index.

    These so-called ‘boring’ stocks with low beta tend todeliver steady returns with lower risk. In the US, high-beta stocks gave about 30% more returns than low-beta ones in the last 50 years, but they came with almost triple the risk. After accounting for all that risk, the extra reward isn’t that great. In fact, avoiding the highest beta stocks could have given 5–6% more in returns each year.

    I ran a simple beta analysis on Nifty 500 stocks for the past year. Low-beta stocks easily outperformed the high-beta ones in what we all know was a pretty volatile market.

    In the past year, stocks with a beta under 1 (and median 0.79) posted positive median returns, whereas those with a beta over 1 (median 1.35) ended up with negative median returns. It contradicts the idea that higher-risk stocks should earn higher returns.

    Valuations reinforce this point. Low-beta stocks traded at higher median P/E and P/B multiples. It seems that investors are paying a premium for stable cash flows, and downside protection.



    Resisting the urge

    For the last couple of years, SEBI has been issuing warnings about how the vast majority of young traders lose money in derivatives trading. But are people listening, when in the age of online trading and finfluencers, stock trading offers an easy dopamine rush? Holding back becomes a deliberate, conscious choice.

    I leave you with a sports story: the economist Michael Bar-Eli did a famous analysis in 2009 on the performance of football goalkeepers. Statistically, he found that a goalkeeper's best chance of saving a penalty kick is to stay in the center of the net. This gives them a 33.3% save rate.

    But in real life, goalkeepers stay in the center only 6.3% of the time, and dive left or right 94% of the time. Why? Because if they stand still and give up a goal, it looks like they didn't try. Even if they dive and miss, it seems like they "did something." 

    So next time you get a "trade now" notification, consider how an unnecessary dive can cost you the match.

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    The Baseline
    07 Jan 2026

    India’s electric cars see growth amid tough competition in 2025

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    For years, India’s electric car market was a small space, where growth was heavily reliant on government subsidies, and a few early adopters willing to take on an unproven product. 

    In 2025, however, electric cars saw a jump in market share, accounting for 4.6% of all passenger vehicle sales, up from 2.6% in 2024. While still a small slice of the total car market, EVs are growing faster than petrol or diesel cars. It’s still tiny, of course: EVs in China make up over 50% of car sales.

    The big story of 2025 however, is why people are buying. EV buyers are now comparing ownership costs, features and daily usability, and not just chasing subsidies. Competition has also increased as existing players expand their EV line-ups.

    “EV penetration rose across most segments, except two-wheelers, even as overall vehicle retail demand remained soft,” said FADA president CS Vigneshwar. “This shows EV adoption is moving beyond early buyers into mass consumers and fleets. Continued policy support, accessible financing, and expansion of charging infrastructure will be key to growth in the coming months,” he added.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at how India’s electric four-wheeler market evolved in 2025.

    Buying cars for value, not just subsidies

    In 2025, government discounts became less important. FAME-II subsidies for personal electric cars ended in March 2024, with no new scheme for four-wheelers. Instead, the government shifted its support toward manufacturing-linked incentives and building more charging stations.

    Despite lower discounts, EV sales have continued to rise in big cities. A segment of buyers, mostly urban families with more than one car, now sees EVs as a smart choice for daily driving. These customers find electric cars cheaper to run and easier to maintain.

    This growth is still mostly in big cities, where charging is easier to find. In smaller towns, people remain hesitant due to weak charging infrastructure and higher prices. 

    New rivals challenge Tata’s market leadership

    Tata Motors has been the king of India’s electric cars for years, but its lead shrank in 2025. Over the year, Tata lost about 22 percentage points of its market share as rivals caught up. While its popular models, Nexon EV and Punch EV, still sell well, new buyers are looking at other brands.

    MG Motor India gained ground in the market by offering tech-heavy cars like the ZS EV. It's traction signals less brand-loyal EV buyers, who are more willing to switch if the product provides better value in a similar price range.

    Mahindra & Mahindra has also become a serious threat to Tata Motors. By launching new electric SUVs like the XUV 9e and BE 6e, Mahindra has tapped into India's love for big cars.

    By mid-2025, the market became a multi-player race. No single company now controls the prices or the trends. This was a big shift from 2021, when Tata controlled over 90% of the EV market, while Mahindra’s share was below 1%.

    “We continue to see solid customer interest in our battery electric vehicle (BEV) portfolio. Electric vehicles account for about 8.7% of our overall portfolio,” Mahindra Group CEO Anish Shah said during the company’s Q2FY26 earnings.

    Among global brands, Hyundai and Kia have focused on selective premium models to test demand depth, while BYD has strengthened its niche among high-end buyers. Luxury brands like BMW focused on EVs for branding, even as most EV sales and competition happened in the mid-priced segment. 

    Premium demand sparks a debate over luxury taxes

    In 2025, the "budget EV" took a backseat: the hottest segment is now cars priced between Rs 20 - 30 lakh. These buyers are willing to pay more for better software, longer range, and solid warranties.

    But this shift toward premium cars has caught the eye of tax officials. A new proposal suggests raising taxes (GST) to 18% for mid-range EVs and a whopping 40% for luxury imports.

    Car makers are worried. Tata Motors warned that higher taxes would slow down the shift to clean energy, while BMW said it could ruin the dream of local production. Even Tesla, which is finally opening Indian showrooms, faces a rocky start if these taxes are implemented.

    Currently, the market is split: Tata leads with 43% share, followed by MG (24%) and Mahindra (21%). While the luxury segment (Mercedes and BMW) accounts for only 2%, their influence on technology and trends continues to shape the future of Indian roads.

    Senior Director and Head of CareEdge Advisory & Research, Tanvi Shah, said, "India is well-positioned to accelerate EV adoption, with a strong pipeline of new model launches. Expanding charging infrastructure and battery localisation under the PLI scheme will support this growth."

    The growing problem of low resale value

    As the first wave of electric cars hit the used market in 2025, a new problem has appeared: they have lost value very quickly. Unlike petrol cars, used EVs are seeing their resale prices drop sharply.

    The biggest concern for used-car buyers is battery health. Since the battery is the most expensive part of the car, people are scared to buy a used one without knowing its condition. Currently, there is no standard way to test a battery's "health." While many makers offer “lifetime” warranties of up to 15 years, these usually apply only to the first owner. If you buy a used EV, that warranty often shrinks significantly.

    Technology is also moving so fast that older EVs quickly feel outdated. Newer models offer much faster charging and better range for the same price, making two-year-old cars look like old tech.

    Finally, supply chain issues have returned. China’s limits on exporting certain minerals used in batteries caused some stress. While companies like Tata and Mahindra say they have enough stock for now, they are racing to find new suppliers to avoid future production delays.

    These challenges, low resale value and supply risks, show that the EV journey in India still has hurdles to clear before it becomes truly mainstream.

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    The Baseline
    06 Jan 2026
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 6, 2026

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 6, 2026

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. IDFC First Bank: 

    ICICI Direct upgrades this bank to a ‘Buy’ rating, with a target price of Rs 100, an upside of 18%. This upgrade reflects the bank's steady loan growth and increasing deposits. IDFC First Bank was formed in 2018 through the merger of IDFC and Capital First. Since then, the bank has steadily shifted its focus towards retail lending, which now accounts for 59% of its total loan book.

    Loans jumped 19.7% in the first half of FY26, driven by home, vehicle, and business loans. Deposits grew even faster at 23.4%. Over half of these deposits are low-cost savings accounts. Analysts Vishal Narnolia and Parth Chintkindi expect loan growth to continue at 20% annually through FY28, backed by strong deposits and capital.

    The bank recently raised Rs 7,500 crore, boosting its capital reserves. This financial cushion gives it the freedom to expand its retail loans, credit cards, and wealth management services without needing more cash soon.

    Narnolia and Chintkindi note that profit margins may be tight for now due to changing loan rates and some stress in the microfinance sector. However, they expect a recovery in the second half of FY26.

    2. Bank of Baroda:

    Emkay retains its ‘Buy’ call on this PSU bank with a higher target price of Rs 350 per share, an upside of 14.7%. Analysts Anand Dama and Nikhil Vaishnav are optimistic, citing the bank’s healthy returns, strong capital buffer, and attractive valuations.

    Management expects loan growth of 11–15%, fueled by its retail, MSME, and corporate divisions. Analysts highlight that growth in agriculture and a favourable exchange rate for its overseas business will also help. While growth was slow in Q2FY26, analysts predict a second-half rebound, driven by demand from renewable energy, data centres, and infrastructure projects.

    The bank aims to keep its net interest margin stable at 2.8%. Dama and Vaishnav believe this is achievable through updated deposit rates, better loan recoveries, a higher share of the marginal cost of funds-based lending rate portfolio, and tax refunds. They project the bank's net interest income to grow 9.7% and net profit to grow 5.9% annually through FY28.

    3. Ajanta Pharma: 

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 3,145, an upside of 10.6%. Analysts Tushar Manudhane and Eshita Jain note that the company consistently outperforms competitors with its branded generic drugs in India, Asia, and Africa. It is expanding into new regions and adding treatments for chronic conditions, while also strengthening its product range.

    In India, the company’s sales team helps it grow 1–2% faster than the overall pharmaceutical market. It focuses on key areas like dermatology, pain management, and gynaecology, making smart acquisitions to bolster its offerings. With 120–150 new products approved each year, its pipeline for future growth remains full.

    A new partnership with Biocon to supply the popular weight loss drug semaglutide in 23 countries opens up a major growth opportunity. With few competitors, Ajanta can capture a significant market share. This could add $25–30 million in annual sales by late FY28, with high profit margins of 50–55% driven by low costs.

    With Rs 1,000 crore set aside for acquisitions, the company looks ready to buy its way to further growth. Manudhane and Jain project strong annual growth through FY28, forecasting revenue to climb by 11%, and net profit by 16%.

    4. Ambuja Cements:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this cement manufacturer with a target price of Rs 630 per share, an upside of 11.8%. The stock has dropped 5.4% over the past six months and 2.2% over the quarter. Ambuja Cements’ board approved the merger of its subsidiaries, ACC and Orient Cement, with itself on December 22, 2025.

    Analysts Uttam K Srimal and Shikha Doshi believe this merger will make operations more transparent, allow the company to use its factories more effectively, and create a stronger base for future expansion.

    Management says the merger will streamline manufacturing and logistics, simplify the corporate structure, and strengthen its finances. This will help the company to improve capital allocation for growth. Analysts note that the move could boost profit margins by over Rs 100 per tonne by cutting costs in sales, branding, and distribution.

    Srimal and Doshi highlight that Ambuja Cements’ nationwide presence, cost-cutting, and integration within the Adani group position it well for growth. Strong demand from government infrastructure projects, housing, and private investment have created a favourable market. They forecast annual revenue growth of 15.5% over FY26-27.

    5. Shyam Metalics and Energy: 

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this iron & steel manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 1,000, an upside of 20%. Its share price has fallen 14.2% over the past three months and 5.2% over the last six months. The company plans to more than double its revenue by FY31 by expanding capacity and focusing on higher-value products.

    Shyam Metalics and Energy recently completed a Rs 9,500 crore capex cycle, tripling its revenue in five years. Now, it is focusing on downstream steel, stainless steel, and aluminium. These products offer much higher profit margins than basic steel, creating more predictable earnings and reducing its reliance on fluctuating commodity prices.

    Management projects 16–18% annual revenue growth for the next five years, with profits growing even faster thanks to a better product mix. They expect stainless steel revenue to nearly quadruple. Both aluminium and downstream steel could become Rs 10,000 crore businesses. The company plans to fund these expansions using its own cash.

    Analysts Vikash Singh and Mohit Lohia forecast annual revenue growth of 18% and net profit growth of 24% over FY26-28. They believe the company's focus on diverse, high-value metals and smart spending will secure its market position and drive long-term earnings.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    02 Jan 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 2, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 2, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Dixon Technologies:

    This consumer electronics maker fell 3.7% last week after CLSA cut its price target by 16% to Rs 15,800. The brokerage said the company’s near-term outlook looks uncertain due to slowing smartphone sales in India and loss of market share by its key customers. CLSA also expects Dixon’s Q3 revenue to remain flat YoY, raising the risk of a guidance cut in FY26.

    The company’s share price has fallen 32% over the past year. Adding to the pressure is the government’s decision to extend IT hardware import norms until December 2026, which allows brands such as Acer, Lenovo, HP, and Asus to continue importing products and reduces the push for local manufacturing. Several other brokerages also flagged that Dixon may struggle to meet its guidance in the coming years, with import rules posing a downside risk to their estimates.

    Despite near-term challenges, CLSA remains positive on Dixon’s long-term prospects. The brokerage has kept its FY28 earnings estimates unchanged, noting that a recovery is expected over time. It believes margins could improve through backward integration, especially in the smartphone segment, which remains Dixon’s key revenue driver.

    The management, in contrast, appears more optimistic. Director and Group CFO Saurabh Gupta said, “Our exports stood at around Rs 1,600–1,700 crore in FY25. This year, we are looking at a figure closer to Rs 7,000–8,000 crore, and we expect strong growth in the following year as well.” He added that exports will continue to grow, both in absolute terms and as a share of revenue.

    Gupta also reiterated Dixon’s revenue target of Rs 1 lakh crore by FY28. He said the company is aiming for around Rs 80,000 crore in FY27, and a growth rate of 30–35% should be enough to reach the target. The company missed its revenue estimates slightly in FY25 and FY24, by around 2%.

    The stock appears undervalued based on its current and future earnings. Its current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 50.1 is well below its 5-year average of 146.9. Based on analyst estimates, its forward PE is 64.5, suggesting potential for further upside.

    2. Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL):

    This oil & gas stock rose over 6% on December 31 as it reportedly partnered with VinFast’s charging arm, V-GREEN, to expand electric-vehicle charging infrastructure across India. Under the collaboration, V-GREEN will leverage HPCL’s nationwide fuel-station network to deploy EV charging points. 

    Falling crude oil prices added to the positive sentiment. Crude has dropped over 20% in the past year and is now trading below $60 a barrel, improving refining economics for oil marketing companies. Analysts expect it to decline further to $50 a barrel in 2026, as the oil glut worsens amid slowing global demand and rising supply. 

    This margin tailwind has begun to reflect in earnings. HPCL reported EPS that beat estimates by 28% in Q2, at Rs 18 per share. Forecaster expects earnings to remain strong in the December quarter, projecting a 44% YoY jump in EPS. Higher profitability is also translating into larger shareholder payouts, with dividends expected to more than double this fiscal year.

    HPCL is now moving past the peak of its capital-intensive phase. Large projects such as the Visakh refinery upgradation and the Rajasthan refinery–petrochemical complex are nearing completion. As these projects ramp up, more of the company’s capital spend is expected to convert into EBITDA and cash flows. Noting the current debt of Rs 55,808 crore, Kaushal said, “Debt reduction has been a focus for the management team. We guided for a debt-equity ratio of 1.1 for FY26, and we are now confident of taking it below 1 by the end of the year.” 

    Motilal Oswal maintains a Buy rating on HPCL with a target price of Rs 590, implying an upside of about 18%. The brokerage prefers HPCL among oil marketing companies due to its higher exposure to the marketing segment, improving dividend outlook as capex tapers, and the expected earnings boost from commissioning of multiple mega-projects over the coming year.

    3. Titan Company: 

    Thisgems & jewellery stock rose 3.6% last week after ICICI Directreiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a higher target price of Rs 4,715. The brokerage expects Titan’s revenue and profit to grow at a CAGR of 18% and 23% respectively, over the next three years.

    The major driver remains studded jewellery, which now accounts for around 23% of Titan’s jewellery sales. This segment is growing faster than plain gold jewellery. Rising preference for design-led and occasion-based purchases has helped Titan increase the share of studded products, strengthening growth visibility despite volatility in gold prices.

    ICICI Direct highlighted Titan’s new brand, ‘beYon’, which offers lab-grown diamonds at 70–80% lower prices than natural ones. These affordable diamonds are attracting a new set of customers, while demand for natural diamonds among affluent buyers remains strong. Diamond jewellery makes up about 15% of India’s jewellery market, while lab-grown diamonds account for less than 1% of total sales. The brokerage expects Titan’s entry to help widen acceptance of lab-grown diamonds and gradually increase the share of studded jewellery.

    Titan’sQ2FY26 revenue rose 21% YoY, with most of the growth coming from festive-season demand in its jewellery business. Net profit surged 59%, helped by tighter cost control. Higher sales volumes also improved operating margins, as fixed costs were spread over a larger base.Forecaster estimates revenue to rise about 33% in Q3FY26, with a net profit growth of over 58%.

    CEO Ajoy Chawlasaid, “High gold prices are hurting demand at the lower end of the market, as fewer price-sensitive customers are buying. To address this, Titan is pushing gold exchange schemes and lighter, lower-carat designs.” Chawla noted that margins may vary quarter to quarter, but the focus is on EBIT growth over time. He added that future performance will partly depend on gold prices.

    4. Zydus Wellness:

    Thishealth and nutrition company jumped 7.2% on December 31 after Motilal Oswalinitiated a “buy” call. The brokerage expects Zydus to move from years of slow growth into a stronger phase as the recent acquisitions scale and the core business stabilises. Analysts note that the 2019 acquisition of Heinz India, which was nearly twice Zydus’ size, had previously weighed on profit growth.

    Zydus owns popular brands like Sugar Free (sugar substitutes), Glucon-D (glucose powders), Everyuth (skincare), Nutralite (spreads), and Complan (nutritional beverages). But growth from these core products has been seasonal and inconsistent, holding back profits.Buying Naturell adds the RiteBite Max Protein brand to its lineup. This move gives Zydus a foothold in the fast-growing market for protein snacks. This category is less seasonal than its other products, promising more stable revenue and predictable margins.

    In August, Zydus went global,buying UK-based Comfort Click for about Rs 2,800 crore. The deal opens doors to the vitamins, minerals, and supplements (VMS) market across the UK, EU, and US, unlocking a new international growth engine.

    The VMS market is booming, growing 7–9% annually and is set to hit $50–60 billion by 2030, driven by greater health awareness and the adoption of preventive healthcare. Commenting on the acquisition, CFO Umesh Parikh said, “Whatever acquisition has happened over the past 2 years in the FMCG segment, the likely payback period has always exceeded 8 to 10 years. But here, we are quite optimistic.”

    InQ2FY25, revenue rose 31% YoY, yet the company reported a Rs 52.8 crore loss. One-time acquisition fees and higher financing costs caused the loss. Seasonal weakness, monsoon troubles, and GST issues also squeezed margins. However,Trendlyne Forecaster expects its net profit to multiply 4.8 times in Q3.

    Success still depends on solid execution. A large share of revenue comes from weather-sensitive categories, making quarterly performance vulnerable to shorter summers and uneven demand. At the same time, volatile input costs and aggressive competition in health drinks and skincare continue to cap margin recovery.

    5. NTPC:

    This electric utilities stock rose 9.2% over the past week after its board approved a 50:50 joint venture (JV) with EDF Power Solutions India on December 24. The JV will develop pumped storage power plants. Separately, the board also cleared the formation of a wholly owned subsidiary in Mauritius to work on power projects, including floating solar installations.

    NTPC continues to scale up capacity. In H1FY26, installed capacity rose 10% YoY to 83.9 gigawatt (GW). The company is accelerating its renewable push through fresh project awards. Last week alone, NTPC placed orders worth Rs 1,704 crore for renewable energy projects, including the appointment of KPI Green Energy to set up a green hydrogen project and a waste-to-energy plant in Greater Noida.

    Its renewable verticals have also stepped up ordering activity. NTPC Renewable Energy gave solar EPC orders of 400 MW to Vikran Engineering and 250 MW to Solarworld Energy Solutions. Another unit, NTPC Green Energy, awarded Bondada Engineering a contract to build and maintain a 300 MW solar project.

    Outlining the long-term expansion roadmap, Director (Finance) Jaikumar Srinivasan said, “Our current capacity under construction stands at 33 GW. We have revised our capacity addition target to 149 GW from 130 GW by 2032.” He added that this expansion would require an estimated capex of about Rs 7 lakh crore over the period.

    Near-term performance remains mixed, despite the aggressive capacity additions. In Q2FY26, revenue stayed flat at Rs 45,262 crore but came in marginally ahead of Forecaster estimates. Power generation was affected by subdued electricity demand due to a milder summer and extended monsoon conditions. 

    Analysts at Motilal Oswal are cautious of NTPC’s execution capabilities and retained a ‘Neutral’ call with a target price of Rs 370. The firm likes the company's long-term outlook but worries that project execution will fall short of investor expectations, especially at NTPC Green. They expect annual revenue growth of 7.8% and profit growth of 12.6% over FY26-28.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    01 Jan 2026
    Will the smallcap investor run out of patience in 2026?

    Will the smallcap investor run out of patience in 2026?

    Since early 2023, I noticed a lot of people sharing screenshots of their stock market portfolios online, often with double digit gains. There seemed to be lots of genius stock pickers around, many of whom were betting on lesser known midcap and smallcap players.

    But in the last three months of 2024, the Nifty fell 8.4%. And in 2025, the market has remained jumpy and volatile. You don't see those posts about portfolio returns all that much anymore.  Gains for Indian investors flatlined - even as oil prices were near five year lows and India's GDP growth was strong, markets didn't move very much. Reliable multibaggers of 2024 like Dixon Tech and Kalyan Jewellers saw negative returns in 2025. 

    Nifty's headline gain for 2025 is 10.5%. And while this may seem like a reasonable performance, it hides some sharp divergences. We look more closely at what changed for investors in 2025.   

    The economist Ruchir Sharma recently wrote that both stocks and gold have soared in the US stock market, an unusual occurrence (stocks and gold returns don't usually move in sync). This, he argues, happened due to the large amount of stimulus pumped into the economy by the US government post-pandemic. He estimates that around $1.5 trillion of "excess money" is sloshing around, driving asset prices up and fuelling speculation across asset classes.

    In India, the major source of money in the stock market in 2025 has come not from a stimulus, but from  monthly SIPs being pumped into domestic mutual funds by retail investors.

    From Jan to March 2025, the MF industry lost more SIPs than it added, as SIP cancellation rates were higher than new SIPs. Since April however, SIP inflows kept rising, and hit a record of Rs. 29,529 crore in October 2025.

    Indian MFs are now sitting on sky-high cash piles. This institutional money is being invested not in expensive smallcaps, but almost exclusively into safer, better valued largecap stocks. This has caused a significant returns gap between Indian indices, hurting retail traders who invested and saw big returns from smallcaps in 2023 and early 2024.

    As a result, even as the headline indices held on to returns, a secret crash has been hiding in the Nifty smallcap index, which has declined 5% over the year. Specific themes like Nifty IT have also suffered, while sectors like banking, auto and metal saw double digit returns.

    Smallcap investors may soon run out of patience

    If smallcaps continue to bleed in 2026, these retail traders may finally lose patience. The current spine of the Indian stock market, SIP inflows, is clearly holding up much better in returns compared to the "get rich quick" mentality of the smallcap trade. 

    As largecaps delivered gains in a volatile market supported by domestic institutions, we are seeing a different set of winners compared to two years ago. And as speculative bets on smallcaps fail to deliver, such individual retail investors may have to look elsewhere.

    Two places that are seeing growth are fixed deposits in banks, and riskier mutual funds. FD balances are growing fast, especially in rural areas. Retail investors fatigued by losing money on high risk bets may also be turning to hybrid and multi asset funds, which saw their AUM (assets under management) grow over 24% in the year till date, while the overall equity category grew by 17%.

    Holdings in gold ETFs also more than doubled in 2025, suggesting that retail traders are trying to shield themselves from market volatility. 

    Overall, the"stock pickers" of the market may have burned their hands a bit in 2025. The reaction to this could be a flight to safety. It may be a while before smallcaps and midcaps become part of the boom again, and for that to happen, the underlying fundamentals would need to change. 

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    The Baseline
    31 Dec 2025

    2025 turns selective on returns: Themes outperform while headline indices stall

    By Anagh Keremutt

    The Nifty 500 rose just 5.5% this year, reflecting uneven earnings growth, valuation concerns, and cautious foreign flows. This seemed like a slow, stagnant year for the stock market, despite strong GDP growth.

    The market however, has moved sharply along selective themes. Investors favoured businesses linked to government spending, financial strength, technology, and reforms. As a result, some thematic indices saw strong gains.

    Money poured into public sector banks, defence manufacturers, and metal companies building infrastructure. New-age themes like electric mobility and consumption also saw a boost.

    Nikhil Khandelwal, MD of Systematix Group, said, “Indian equities are entering 2026 with market performance increasingly driven by earnings growth rather than liquidity. This makes sector selection and company fundamentals far more important than broad index exposure.”

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we break down how specific themes outperformed the broader market and why 2025 became a year where "what" you owned mattered far more than simply "being in" the market.

    Financials lead 2025, thanks to structural strength

    In 2025, the Nifty PSU Bank index rose over 28.3% as public sector banks strengthened their balance sheets and reduced non-performing assets (NPAs).

    NPAs of PSU banks dropped sharply from over 9% in FY21 to around 2.6% by March 2025. Capital levels improved and returns steadily increased. Large banks like State Bank of India now offer good earnings visibility, while mid-sized banks are growing faster. This has built confidence across the sector.

    This trend was also visible in the Financial Services 25/50 index, which rose 18% during the year. The Financial Services 25/50 index makes sure no single company dominates. No stock can be more than 25% of the index, and the top two can’t be more than 50%, so it shows the sector fairly.

    Alongside lenders, financial market infrastructure companies also delivered steady gains. The Nifty Capital Markets index rose about 14.5%, mainly through rising participation. NSE trading accounts crossed 24 crore in November 2025, marking an annual increase of 20%. Individual investors accounted for about 18.8% of NSE’s total market capitalization in Q2FY26. This represents a 22-year peak in retail investor ownership.

    Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities said, "This rally has been underpinned by a surge in equity market participation, record-breaking trading volumes, and a vibrant IPO pipeline." He adds, "As more retail investors joined the markets and F&O activity reached record levels, exchanges, brokers, and investment platforms earned more from transaction fees, margin loans, and other services."

    PSU banks and capital market firms formed two sides of the same engine, one supplying credit to the economy, the other channeling savings into financial assets. This combination made financials a core pillar of thematic outperformance in 2025.

    Defence and metals ride higher domestic demand

    Another driver of returns in 2025 was India’s push toward self-reliance and domestic manufacturing. The Nifty India Defence index rose 15.7% in 2025 as defence spending moved from announcements to actual orders, backed by a record Rs 6.8 lakh crore budget.

    Stock gains were led by Garden Reach Shipbuilders, MTAR Technologies and Bharat Electronics which rose 42.4%, 42% and 34.7%, respectively. Their growth was backed by a combined order book value of over Rs 75,700 crore.

    The Nifty Commodities index gained 14.8% in 2025, driven by a rising cycle in global raw material prices. Unlike previous, more cyclical years, 2025 saw a steady climb as global demand for industrial inputs outpaced supply. 

    The Nifty Metals index led the growth within commodities with a 26.2% surge, reaching record highs in late December. The primary driver was a global copper shortage that pushed prices to an all-time high of $12,960 per ton. 

    Hindustan Copper more than doubled in value with an annual gain of 108%, while National Aluminium and Hindalco rose 48% and 43%, respectively, due to their focus on copper and aluminium for the electric vehicle transition. 

    Discretionary spending jumps as consumers favour premium brands

    Beyond finance and infrastructure, 2025 also marked a visible change in how Indians move and spend.

    The Nifty EV & New Age Automotive index rose about 22.5% in 2025, driven by rapid charging infrastructure expansion and falling battery costs. Policy support and lower ownership expenses boosted the entire value chain, from component manufacturers to vehicle platforms.

    Performance was led by Ashok Leyland in the electric commercial vehicles segment, which rose 62%, Maruti Suzuki which rose sharply within passenger cars, and TVS Motor which stood as the top gainer in the electric two-wheeler segment. Eicher Motors also rose sharply as it scaled EV operations for its first electric Royal Enfield model. 

    The Nifty India New Age Consumption index gained around 17.9%, as urban spending shifted from basic staples to "aspirational" lifestyle brands.

    Select turnarounds drove the rally. Nykaa jumped 65% as profits tripled in Q2FY26, helped by tighter costs and growth in its core beauty business. Telecom also staged a recovery, with Vodafone Idea rising 61% after the government converted a large part of its debt into equity, easing bankruptcy fears and enabling a fresh 5G rollout.

    A Moneycontrol report noted, "Household spending on non-essentials has increased, as higher incomes drive consumers toward premium and discretionary purchases."

    Together, modern mobility and new-age consumption reflected bigger structural changes in the economy. Investors backed companies aligned with these shifts, reinforcing the market’s preference for selective themes.

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