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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    17 Oct 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - October 17, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - October 17, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1.Tata Communications:

    This telecom services provider rose 13.6% last week after announcing Q2FY26 results as well as plans to expand data centre capacity. The company is teaming up with its sister firm, Tata Consultancy Services, on a $6.5 billion investment to add 1 gigawatt of data center capacity.

    As part of this expansion, Tata Communications will handle connectivity and infrastructure support. MD & CEO Amur Lakshminarayanan said, “In India, we saw a growing demand for data centres; we see that in the next five years, data centre capacity will double.” To meet this demand, the company is also investing in AI cloud services and offering powerful computer chips (GPUs) to businesses. Its cloud and security business grew 13% YoY to Rs 469 crore in Q2.

    Despite a 6.5% YoY rise in revenue, the company’s net profit fell 27% in Q2. This was mainly because of higher costs related to network and transmission, which pushed total expenses up 6.8%. However, its core data business, which brings in most of the money, grew by 7%, driven by digital services. Tata Communications aims to increase data revenue to Rs 28,000 crore by FY28, up from Rs 19,300 crore in FY25.

    Lakshminarayanan explained that the company is shifting away from its older network services business, which face pricing and operational challenges. It is now focusing on digital services like cloud connectivity, cybersecurity, and communication platforms to create new revenue streams. 

    CFO Kabir Shakir said that new products like Voice AI (speech-driven customer assistant) and cloud networking are proving popular with customers. He expects these new offerings to boost the company's profitability and margins in the second half of FY26.

    ICICI Securities has a ‘Buy’ rating for the stock with a target price of Rs 2,390. The brokerage says the company’s strong mix of cloud services and network offerings could help it maintain a leading market share. It expects Tata Communications’ revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 8.2% and 51.1% over FY26-27.

    2. Avenue Supermarts (DMart):

    This department stores chain declined 2.7% on October 13 after announcing its Q2FY26 results. Avenue Supermarts’ net profit grew 3.9% YoY to Rs 685 crore, but missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 2.5%.

    During the quarter, revenue increased 15.3% YoY to Rs 16,696 crore, driven by improvements in its foods segment. For DMart, food continued to be the largest contributor to sales at 58%, while general merchandise and apparel made up 22%.

    However, the company continued to face margin pressures, with its EBITDA margin declining by 28 bps to 7.6%. Increased competition in the fast-moving consumer goods sector, rising employee costs, and higher investments in service levels dragged down these margins.

    DMart continues to focus on store expansion. It opened 8 new stores in Q2, taking its total count to 432, and plans to add another 60 stores in FY26. Like-for-like (LFL) sales grew 6.8%, up from 5.5% a year ago. 

    The company's e-commerce business, DMart Ready, is consolidating its operations to focus on large metro areas. Commenting on this, Vikram Dasu, CEO of Avenue E-Commerce, said, “We shut down operations in five smaller cities (Amritsar, Belagavi, Bhilai, Chandigarh, and Ghaziabad) while adding 10 new fulfilment centres in metros.” DMart Ready now operates in 19 cities.

    Analysts noted that growth remained subdued, despite the onset of the festive season early this year (versus Q3 last year). The pressure comes from competition: while DMart’s core strength is still the large, monthly grocery trip, the rise of quick commerce is capturing the smaller, high-frequency "top-up" trips, potentially slowing growth in these high-demand categories.

    Following the company’s earnings announcement, Motilal Oswal reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on the company with a higher target price of Rs 4,770. The brokerage believes DMart's value-driven model and efficient store operations will help it stay competitive over the long term, despite the growing appeal of quick-commerce’s convenience-based approach.

    3. Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA):

    This renewable energy financier surged 3% on Tuesday following its second-quarter results. Revenue climbed 26% YoY, while net profit jumped 42%, fueled by a growing asset base and improving margins. The company appears in a screener of stocks with annual profit growth more than sector profit growth.

    Loans sanctioned in the second quarter jumped 145% compared to last year, while disbursements climbed 81%, reflecting strong demand for green financing. This surge pushed assets under management to over Rs 84,000 crore. Analysts project IREDA’s loan book to grow at a CAGR of 28% over the next two years, crossing Rs 1.2 lakh crore by FY27.

    A strong funding profile underpins this performance. Aided by its AAA credit rating, the company gets about 86% of its funding from domestic investors, keeping borrowing costs around 7.2%. This helped expand the net interest margin by 40 basis points in Q2. The firm also received approval to issue tax-efficient bonds in July this year, a move expected to attract retail investors seeking tax benefits while further reducing funding costs.

    IREDA’s loan book is well diversified across India, lowering regional risk while keeping a 100% focus on renewable energy — from solar and wind to bioenergy and EV infrastructure. The top 20 borrowers account for about 45% of the portfolio, a moderate concentration given the wholesale nature of renewable projects.

    Asset quality continues to strengthen, with both gross and net non-performing assets improving sequentially. Provision costs dropped by 80% compared to a quarter ago after the RBI lowered provisioning norms from 5% to 1.25%, freeing capital to support faster growth.

    ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on IREDA, citing its strong growth prospects, healthy margins, and improving asset quality. The brokerage expects return on assets to remain steady at 1.9% and projects net interest income to grow at a CAGR of 26% through FY27. With the government targeting to double India’s renewable capacity by 2030, IREDA is well-positioned to capitalise on India’s expanding green-finance boom.

    4. Persistent Systems:

    The stock of this IT consulting & software company rose over 7% in the past week. It reported its Q2FY26 results on October 14th. Its net profit surged 45.1% YoY to Rs 471.5 crore, while revenue climbed 23.4% to Rs 3,632.5 crore. This performance was fueled by robust growth across the banking, healthcare, and high-tech divisions.

    The company’s Q2 net profit surpassed the Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimate by 5.5% on the back of strong Annual Contract Value (ACV) and broad-based client growth which was well-spread across North America, Europe, & rest of the world (RoW). Its strategic client mining expanded high-value accounts. The stock features in a screener of companies which have shown relative outperformance versus their peers over the past month.

    Profit margins also saw a healthy expansion this quarter, rising to 16.3%. This was partly due to favourable currency movements and absence of software license costs in certain projects. However, the company is preparing for a near-term margin squeeze, as wage hikes effective from October 1st are expected to impact profits in the next quarter. Management anticipates offsetting a portion of this impact through improved efficiency and offshoring.

    Looking ahead, CEO Sandeep Kalra expressed confidence in the company's long-term vision. He reaffirmed the goal of hitting $2 billion in revenue by FY27 through a mix of organic growth and strategic acquisitions. To reach its more ambitious target of $5 billion by FY31, the company plans to push into new sectors like manufacturing and retail. "We expect our operating margins to improve by 2-3% in the next 2-3 years," he added.

    Brokerage firm Axis Direct remains positive on the company's prospects, maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, though it has slightly lowered its target price to Rs 6,160. The firm praised Persistent’s ability to secure major strategic deals even in a tough economic climate. However, it also cautioned that rising subcontracting costs and currency fluctuations could pose a challenge to operating margins in the future.

    5. Larsen & Toubro (L&T): 

    This construction & engineering company’s stock rose 1.9% over the past week after announcing a series of big order wins across its business segments. The largest order was in the hydrocarbon onshore business, on October 9, worth more than Rs 15,000 crore. The company won the order in a consortium with Consolidated Contractors Group SAL to set up a natural gas liquids (NGL) plant in the Middle East.

    L&T's power transmission & distribution (PT&D) business bagged orders worth Rs 2,500–5,000 crore in the Middle East on October 13. The projects include building a 400 kV substation in the UAE, new 132kV substations in the Middle East, and the construction of 380 kV overhead transmission lines in Saudi Arabia.

    The company’s buildings & factories (B&F) business also won an order worth Rs 5,000-10,000 crore to set up an IT park in Bengaluru with a development area of 59 lakh sq. ft, earlier in the month. The company's strong order book provides visibility for future revenue. In total, L&T reportedly bagged orders worth Rs 62,900 crore in Q2FY26, with a significant portion coming from international markets, particularly the Middle East. 

    Speaking on the company’s order inflow, L&T’s Head of Investor Relations, P Ramakrishnan, noted, “We expect our group order inflows and group revenues to grow at 10% and 15% respectively for FY26.” The company expects international projects, particularly in the Middle East's hydrocarbon and energy transition sectors, to be the primary driver of this growth.

    Reflecting this optimism, global brokerage firm Jefferies reiterates its 'Buy' rating on L&T, with a higher target price of Rs 4,125. The brokerage remains bullish on the company, citing its dominant market position, strong execution capabilities, and the government's continued focus on infrastructure development. Jefferies expects L&T's order inflow to remain strong, driven by both domestic and international opportunities.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    16 Oct 2025
    Analysts pick their winners: Five stocks set to shine in Q2FY26

    Analysts pick their winners: Five stocks set to shine in Q2FY26

    By Tejas MD

    Just when you thought it was safe to check your portfolio, Donald Trump reclaimed his title as the market’s main character.

    It was a week of drama. On Friday, his tariff threat against China tanked the markets; by Monday, a breezy assurance of “All will be fine” sent them rallying back. All this played out in the wake of the Nobel Peace Prize announcement, an award everyone except Trump knew he wouldn't win.

    Volatility rules in 2025. Fear gauges like Nifty VIX are surging, and the earnings season promises more twists.

    On the upside, our Diwali discounts are live, giving you access to a subscription that helps you improve your portfolio returns even in a moody market.

    The real challenge now isn't predicting Trump's next tweet, but finding companies that are seeing momentum and likely to post strong results. Let's dig them out. 

    Potential winners from analysts: Five stocks expected to shine in Q2FY26

    As we kick off the Q2FY26 results, we shortlist five stocks from the Nifty 500 that are expected to post high revenue and net profit growth, according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster.

    These companies have already set the bar high with strong results in Q1FY26.

    Auto sector takes the spotlight with two of five stocks

    The spotlight is on the auto sector, with two of the five stocks—Eicher Motors and Endurance Tech — leading the charge. Other stocks include the wires biz Polycab, infra bigwig Larsen & Toubro, and the hotels company Lemon Tree Hotels. 

    All five stocks have outpaced the Nifty 50 over the past quarter and year.

    All five stocks top the benchmark over the past quarter and year

    The stocks in focus have either ‘Good’ or ‘Medium’ scores across the Durability, Valuation, and Momentum categories. Endurance Tech stands out here with high Durability and Momentum scores, with a DVM classification of ‘Strong Performer, Getting Expensive’. 

    Stocks in focus have good Durability scores with strong fundamentals

    Consumption-focused sectors like auto, consumer durables and hotels are expected to see strong results on the back of GST cuts. Rising disposable incomes and festive season tailwinds are fuelling growth. Meanwhile, infra companies like L&T are riding the wave of higher government spending on infra projects, an renewable energy spends.

    Endurance Technologies pumps the accelerator on global EV growth

    Endurance Technologies, a major auto components player in India and Europe, supplies aluminium castings, suspensions, transmissions, braking systems, and battery systems.

    Its revenue driver is India’s two and three-wheeler segments, boosted by new model launches. A rising focus on EV components, combined with the upcoming ABS mandate for two-wheelers, effective from January 2026, is expected to drive growth.

    EV order wins and two-wheeler demand power Endurance Tech’s revenue

    The company has a significant presence in Europe, which now contributes 30% of its revenue. Q1FY26 Europe sales rose 28.5% despite a weak market, driven by the Stöferle acquisition, robust new orders, and electric and hybrid vehicle component sales.

    Tariffs remain a challenge for exports. On Europe’s outlook, Massimo Venuti, CEO of Endurance Overseas, said, “In this moment, it is very difficult to predict the next 18 months. Spain is the only market growing in double digits because of government incentives. Everybody in Germany, France, and Italy is waiting for this incentive, which would be a growth booster.”

    Larsen & Toubro rides the wave on strong global orders

    Larsen & Toubro (L&T), India's engineering and infrastructure giant, reported strong revenue growth in Q1FY26, driven by solid execution across key sectors including Hydrocarbon, Precision Engineering, and Heavy Engineering. International revenues now make up a big portion of total revenue, highlighting L&T's expanding global footprint.

    Strong international order execution to boost L&T’s topline 

    The company recently won a landmark 'ultra-mega' order (Rs 15,000 crore) for the development of a Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) plant and associated infrastructure in the Middle East. 

    Analysts expect revenue and profit to grow YoY and QoQ in Q2FY26, driven by execution in the international order book.

    Lemon Tree Hotels makes lemonade from rising travel demand

    Strong demand from corporate and leisure travel is set to boost Lemon Tree Hotels’ Q2 revenue, driven by new properties, higher occupancy, and rising average room rates.

    Recent additions, including Lemon Tree Suites in Nashik, a 135-room property in Maharashtra, Lemon Tree Premier in Surat, and Keys Lite in Kharar, are expected to boost the company’s presence and revenue in the coming quarters.

    New openings and higher occupancy drive Lemon Tree Hotels’ revenue surge

    Average revenue per available room (RevPAR) rose 19.4% YoY in Q1, while occupancy improved six percentage points to 72.5%. 

    On expanding into villas and the alternate luxury segment, Patanjali G. Keswani, MD, said, “We are in the mid-market. We want to focus on the 2.5-star to 4.5-star segment. That means mid-scale, upper mid-scale, and upscale. The opportunity in India is so big that we do not want to dabble in other areas or pivot our business model.”

    Eicher Motors shifts gears with pricing and GST boost

    Eicher Motors enters Q2FY26 on strong momentum, driven by record-breaking sales and strategic pricing. In September 2025, Royal Enfield posted its highest-ever monthly sales, delivering 1,24,328 motorcycles—a 43% year-on-year rise—boosted by the GST cut on bikes up to 350cc, which lowered taxes from 28% to 18% and spurred demand.

    Eicher Motors rides strong Q2FY26 momentum on record Royal Enfield sales

    However, premium motorcycles above 350cc, including the Himalayan and 650cc models, now attract a 40% GST, raising costs for buyers. Strategic pricing and promotional offers are helping sustain demand in this segment. 

    Speaking about the GST increase for >350cc motorcycles, Eicher Motors Executive Chairman Siddhartha Lal, said, "Lowering GST for less than 350cc will help broaden access, but raising GST for over 350cc would damage a segment vital to India's global edge”. 

    Polycab India: Charging ahead on renewables and export demand

    Polycab India is set for growth in Q2FY26, driven by demand across its segments. The Wires & Cables division, which makes up around 88% of sales, is expected to see momentum from infrastructure development and increased government spending.

    Infrastructure push and renewable trends drive Polycab’s momentum

    The fast-moving electrical goods (FMEG) segment, including solar products, is also growing. On the export front, one-third of Polycab’s shipments go to the US. Recent tariff increases on Chinese products could provide a competitive tailwind, boosting Polycab’s positioning in key markets.

    Analysts remain optimistic. Jefferies has a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target of Rs 8,180 per share, citing the company’s diversified revenue streams and strong market fundamentals. 

    Follow live Q2 results here.

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    The Baseline
    15 Oct 2025

    Rural India is spending more, but household incomes haven’t caught up

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    For nearly three years after the Covid-19 pandemic, people in small towns and villages spent cautiously. Local shops stocked only essentials, many brands saw their rural sales flatten, and even festive spending was muted. But over the past few quarters, that quiet is breaking. Shelves are moving again, and trucks carrying consumer goods are back on the highways.

    At first glance, it looks like a comeback story—the kind every business loves. Rural India, which makes up nearly 60% of the country’s population, is once again driving demand. Big names like Hindustan Unilever, Godrej Consumer Products, Dabur, and Marico are upbeat in their quarterly calls, highlighting strong rural momentum. It’s the first real spark of hope after three muted years.

    But the story isn’t as simple as it seems. Higher incomes or better farm earnings aren’t powering the current uptick — it’s being driven by falling prices. Disinflation, particularly in food items, has acted like a temporary income boost for rural households. When grocery bills stop rising, every rupee stretches further, and that’s translating into more purchases of soap, cooking oil, and snacks — even without a real rise in wages. 

    In contrast, farm incomes themselves haven’t seen a meaningful increase. Although output has improved following a decent monsoon, crop prices have largely remained flat, leaving farmers with little extra money. Rural families are spending more, but it’s not because they’re making extra money—it’s just that things have become cheaper.

    Meanwhile, household finances are showing stress. Savings have fallen to 13.2% of income from over 16% in September 2024, while the consumption-to-income ratio rose to 65.6% from 60.9%. 

    Gold loan volumes are soaring, and one in five rural families is borrowing from informal, high-interest sources. In short, people are spending more, but they’re doing it by dipping into savings and pledging gold.

    As a report from Zerodha points out, “The surge in rural FMCG sales is more a reflection of disinflationary pressures and rising gold loan volumes than a genuine rise in income levels.”

    So, what’s really happening beneath the surface? In this edition of Chart of the Week, we’ll explore both sides — the reasons rural shelves are moving again, and the deeper cracks that suggest that this might not be the durable recovery it appears to be.

    Why is rural demand moving again?

    The biggest reason for the current rural momentum is disinflation — a sharp drop in price pressures that has eased household budgets. In September 2025, food prices fell 2.3% year-on-year, with vegetable prices plunging over 21%. For families that spend nearly half their income on food, that kind of price relief feels like a pay raise.

    The effect is visible in corporate numbers. During the Q1FY26 results, Hindustan Unilever reported that its rural sales have outpaced urban growth. CEO Ritesh Tiwari summed it up during an earnings call: “Our rural business, about one-third of our sales, is seeing stronger growth than urban markets. Rural disposable incomes were low, but easing food inflation, government support, and good harvests boosted consumption and recovery.”

    Dabur also highlighted that rural sales growth was driven by volume increases, not just price hikes. This is an important distinction because it signals that people are genuinely consuming more.

    The pattern is clear: the recovery is concentrated in smaller, budget-friendly items, not premium products. Rural households haven’t suddenly become wealthier; they are just finding it easier to make every rupee go a little further. Together, cheaper food and stable commodity prices have created a short-term window of relief — at least for now.

    The fragile reality beneath the surface

    The core issue here is that higher farm output hasn’t translated into higher income. While better weather led to bigger harvests, the prices for those crops have remained flat. Mandi prices for staples like wheat have stagnated for months, and wholesale food inflation has contracted since April. Farmers sold more but earned roughly the same, which means there was no significant income boost to fuel a lasting recovery.

    Even the “good monsoon” wasn’t universal; while some regions benefited, others faced trouble. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, for example, have been hit by floods, damaging cotton and maize production. In these areas, a favourable weather forecast turned into a disaster, highlighting agriculture's vulnerability to unpredictable climate events.

    The temporary spike in spending is therefore largely a result of disinflation (falling inflation). While this offered short-term relief, analysts warn it may not last. Around 45% of rural households report that their income has not grown, marking the highest level of income stagnation in over a decade.

    Household finances reveal further signs of fragility. Savings have fallen, borrowing has risen, and more families are turning to gold loans or informal lenders. Gold loans, in particular, are a red flag — they’re quick fixes, not long-term investments. Most people use them to meet short-term expenses, not to build assets.

    Looking ahead, the next few quarters could hold up due to healthy acreage, easier credit, the festive season, and GST cuts on essentials. Staples and entry-level discretionary items may continue moving, but the momentum is highly sensitive. A spike in commodity prices or adverse weather could quickly undo the gains. For businesses counting on a rural boom, a dose of caution is essential

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    The Baseline
    10 Oct 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - October 10, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - October 10, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1.Eternal (Zomato): 

    This internet software & services company hit an all-time high of Rs 349.9 on October 10 after Citi raised its target price from Rs 320 to Rs 395. The increase was largely driven by the strong performance of its quick commerce business, Blinkit. Citi anticipates Blinkit's gross order value (GOV) to jump by 123% in FY26 and 57% the following year, fueled by the rapid addition of dark stores and launches in new cities.

    The upcoming second quarter result is expected to be another strong period for Blinkit, with projections of up to 140% YoY growth in GOV. This growth is partly due to the festive season beginning towards the end of September. The company’s core food delivery business is projected to grow 18% YoY in Q2.

    While Blinkit continues to perform well, competition in the quick commerce sector is heating up. Amazon has expanded its service, Amazon Now, to Mumbai after trial runs in Bengaluru and Delhi. Though Amazon is a new entrant with about 100 stores, it is now competing with established players like Blinkit, which has 1,544 stores, and Swiggy, with 1,062. Analysts see this as a typical phase of market growth where competition helps expand the overall market, and customer loyalty will likely benefit existing companies.

    In a surprising move, Goldman Sachs sold over Rs 924 crore of its shares in Eternal through multiple block deals over the past month. This sale occurred even after its own brokerage arm had recommended the stock with a ‘Buy’ in September, citing the growth potential in the quick commerce unit. The bulk of the shares sold by Goldman Sachs were acquired by Morgan Stanley and BofA Securities Europe.

    Eternal CFO Akshant Goyal said, “By moving most of the quick commerce business from a marketplace to an owned-inventory model over the next 2–3 quarters, we expect EBITDA margins on GOV to improve to 5–6% (from –1.8% currently) and RoCE to cross 40%.”

    Regarding the food delivery business, Goyal has adjusted the growth forecast for FY26 down to 15% from the previous 20% estimate. This cut reflects restaurants offering more discounts to attract customers in a weak demand environment. However, the company aims to return to a growth rate of around 20% in FY27.

    2. Hero MotoCorp:

    This two-wheeler manufacturer rose 1.2% over the past week after September wholesales grew 7.9% YoY to 6.9 lakh units. The strong performance was fueled by a surge in domestic motorcycle and scooter sales, while exports nearly doubled, jumping 94.8% to 39,638 units. The stock features in a screener of stocks with high FII holdings, with a holding of 27.1%.

    A reduction in GST rates from 28% to 18% boosted the company's scooter sales, which jumped 54.4% YoY, while motorcycle wholesales also climbed 4.8%. This tax relief is particularly crucial for Hero, as half its sales come from rural and semi-urban areas. The increased disposable income from the income-tax relief and reduction in prices from the GST cut are expected to revive demand in these key markets.

    Commenting on the strong demand, Ashutosh Varma, Chief Business Officer of the company's India Business Unit, noted, "On the first day of Navratri, the number of customers walking into our showrooms and buying a two-wheeler more than doubled YoY. The sales that were deferred in anticipation of new pricing with GST 2.0 have picked up, and we are getting clear signs of customers’ strong intent to own a new vehicle without delay. Our newly launched festive range of 12 segment-leading models is driving this surge in demand across scooters and motorcycles.”

    A weak Q1FY26 preceded the strong performance in September as Hero MotoCorp’s revenue declined 3.8% YoY due to the company temporarily shutting down four plants for maintenance and to resolve supply chain issues. Meanwhile, net profit jumped 63.1% YoY during the quarter, driven by price hikes, a rich product mix and a one-time income of Rs 629.4 crore from the Ather Energy IPO.

    Post Hero MotoCorp’s September update, Axis Direct retains its ‘Buy’ call with a higher target price of Rs 5,960 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 8.4%. The brokerage points to Hero’s expanding EV portfolio, dominant market share in entry-level motorcycles, and international expansion as key growth drivers. It expects the company to deliver a revenue and net profit CAGR of 7.6% each over FY26-28. 

    3. Max Healthcare Institute:

    Thishealthcare company rose 6.6% on September 6 following achange in government policy. The Union Health Ministry hiked Central Government Health Scheme (CGHS) rates for 2,000 medical procedures—the first revision in nearly a decade. This allows healthcare companies to charge higher prices for services provided to government employees.

    This policy change directly impacts a key revenue stream, as 20% of the company's revenue comes from government patients, with 10% tied to CGHS. Nuvama Institutional Equitiesprojects the rate hike could boost revenue by 5–8%, improve EBITDA by 18%, and expand margins by 350–400 basis points.

    The company's performance is already on the rise. InQ1FY26, revenue and net profit soared by over 30% YoY. This growth was fueled by higher patient volumes, stable revenue per bed, and new hospital contributions. Occupancy rates climbed to a healthy 76%. The outlook is even brighter. Trendlyne’sForecaster predicts a 46.8% profit surge in Q2FY26, driven by 44.8% revenue growth to Rs 2,583 crore. 

    Aggressive expansion underpins this growth. The companyplans to nearly double its capacity from 5,200 to over 10,000 beds by FY29, focusing on Delhi NCR and Mumbai. Chairman Abhay Soiconfirmed the immediate plan: “Our focus remains on commissioning the new bed capacities. We expect to add approximately 1,000 brownfield and 500 greenfield beds in FY26.”

    Motilal Oswal endorses this positive outlook,maintaining its ‘Buy’ rating. The brokerage cites clear earnings potential fueled by ongoing expansion and disciplined capital use. It forecasts annual growth of 21% in revenue, 22% in EBITDA, and 27% in net profit over FY26-27, setting a target price of Rs 1,350.

    4. Delhivery:

    The stock of this warehousing & logistics company rose 7% in the past week after it provided a positive operational update for Q2FY26. The company reported shipping goods worth more than Rs 19,500 crore and processing over 10.4 crore e-commerce and freight shipments, signaling a period of robust growth.

    Delhivery’s performance is drawing attention on the street. Foreign brokerage Macquarie notes the company handled a peak of 6.2 million parcels per day in September, matching its expectations. This suggests Delhivery has scaled operations effectively without compromising quality after its Rs 1,407 crore acquisition of Ecom Express in June, aimed at expanding its nationwide reach.

    The company's Q1FY26 revenue rose by 6.2% YoY, fuelled by double digit growth in the B2C shipment volumes. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates its revenue to grow by 13.6% in Q2, due to rising retention volumes at Ecom express. The stock features in a screener of stocks having strong momentum.

    Looking ahead, Delhivery plans to expand its quick-delivery services to three more cities and increase its number of local fulfillment centers. CEO Sahil Barua is confident that the company's Partial Truckload (PTL) freight division will achieve a healthy operating margin of 16-18%. He expects 20% revenue growth for the PTL division in FY26, driven by expansion into under-served geographies and further penetration into SME and retail segments.

    This positive outlook is echoed by Kotak Securities, which recently upgraded Delhivery’s stock to a ‘Buy’ rating and raised its price target to Rs 565. The brokerage firm highlights the company's stable market share and notes that its current valuation doesn't fully capture the potential of its new business initiatives, which could add even more value for investors.

    5. Kalyan Jewellers India:

    This jewellery retailer has seen its share price climb 4.2% over the past week. The rise followed a strong Q2 business update, where the company reported a 31% YoY jump in revenue.

    Kalyan Jewellers’ India operations witnessed strong growth despite a surge in gold prices, thanks to robust wedding demand and an early start to the festive season. The inclusion of Navratri sales helped cushion the impact of last year’s (Q2FY25) high base, which was caused by a customs duty reduction on gold. Meanwhile, same-store sales grew about 16% during the period, a clear signal of steady consumer demand.

    Gold prices have risen 50% so far this year. However, jewellery retailers noted that higher gold prices also led to a rise in the average ticket size, which offset a marginal decline in the number of buyers. The company’s peer, Titan, also reported healthy revenue growth in Q2FY26, with a 20% YoY increase. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, Kalyan Jewellers' revenue is expected to grow by 22.5% YoY in Q2FY26.

    Meanwhile, the company added 15 new stores in India during the quarter, two in the Middle East, and 15 outlets for its Candere brand. Candere, the company's online-focused brand, continued to expand rapidly, delivering a huge 127% jump in revenue supported by more visitors both in showrooms and online. As of September 30, Kalyan Jewellers’ total store count stood at 436. Executive Director Ramesh Kalyanaraman said, “We are on track to add around 15 more Kalyan showrooms in India before Diwali, encouraged by strong customer traffic across major markets.”

    ICICI Securities upgraded its rating on the company to ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 670. The brokerage expects Kalyan’s sales momentum to remain strong, helped by steady demand even with high gold prices, as well as its accelerating pace of opening new stores. It projects the company’s revenue to grow at a 28% CAGR over FY26-27.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    10 Oct 2025
    Clickbait has come for the Indian stock market

    Clickbait has come for the Indian stock market

    By Swapnil Karkare

    I still remember signing 30-odd pages to open my first demat and trading account. There were so many forms that my signature became an unreadable scrawl by the end. To trade, you had to call your broker for almost everything, because of the complicated processes.

    This wasn’t even that long ago, before you write me off as some uncle grumbling about “the offline days.”

    Today, you can decide to become a trader in the morning and be buying stocks in a few hours. No paperwork, no calls.

    It’s never been easier to buy or sell a stock — whether in the cash or derivatives market. The experience is frictionless. Maybe too frictionless.

    A little friction creates 'thehrav', a small pause which stops you from acting impulsively.

    That pause? It's gone.

    Now, trading apps don’t want calm investors. They want hyperactive ones who are clicking ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ on every tiny market move. In the US, Robinhood was criticised for turning trading into a dopamine game, with digital confetti, flashy alerts, and dark patterns that kept users hooked. Those same patterns are now showing up in Indian apps as well.

    A 2021 study found that India’s top trading platforms use harmful nudges like “Didn’t invest yet? It’s a good day to start” and send users sad emojis if they haven't placed any orders.

    Technology has made markets more accessible, but also more impulsive.


    The Rise of the One Percent and the FIRE Dream

    The so-called “one percent” and “FIRE” (Financially Independent, Retire Early) movements say that without investing in stocks, you’ll never be financially independent or a millionaire.

    These ideas took off during Covid, when stock markets stayed open while everything else closed down, and people discovered the thrill of trading. The bull market that followed made fortunes for many new investors.

    But as investors demanded more information, we got too much of it. To win eyeballs, websites turned to clickbait headlines, dramatic storytelling, and turned every rumor into news.

    What are retail investors reading? Hint: It's not the 1,000 word Economist article.

    Elon Musk tweets, telling people to cancel Netflix.

    Subscriptions drop.
    Stock prices tumble.
    $20 billion vanishes.

    Markets today don’t just move with the fundamentals — they react to headlines, outrage and hot takes. A meme can make money, and a tweet from a big enough handle can trigger massive sell-offs. In this noise, are we really getting the right information? Increasingly, no. We’re getting the most clickable version of the truth.

    An economy that is falling for clickbait

    The clickbait approach was once limited to creators chasing views, but is now baked into mainstream financial media. Every small economic correction becomes “the next 2008 crisis.” Every cautious analyst comment is headlined as a sell signal.

    This exaggeration creates a panic loop of clicks and shares. As a result, videos like “The Stock Market Crash is Your Best Chance to Be a Millionaire”go viral.

    Even professionals aren’t immune. High-frequency trading algorithms now scrape headlines and social media sentiment in real time, giving institutional analysts a similar, panic driven picture. So when the financial media plays up volatility, those headlines can literally create volatility.

    Take Elon Musk’s infamous 2018 tweet: “Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.”

    The market believed him. Tesla’s stock price jumped nearly 10%. Later, the US SEC found there was no concrete deal. Musk paid a $40 million fine and stepped down as chairman.

    Closer home, earlier this year, NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam claimed that India had overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy.

    The internet went wild, and traditional media like The Indian Express reported it at face value. Only later did it clarify that the ranking depended on which metric was used, nominal GDP or PPP.

    But India has been the third largest by PPP since 2009. As usual, the truth arrives late.

    The Finfluencer effect

    Sandeep Parekh, the Managing Partner of Finsec Law Advisors, said, “Today’s con artists have replaced cold calls and call centres with content creators and clickbait thumbnails.”

    Remember Sadhna Broadcast Limited? Here, SEBI uncovered an orchestrated campaign of circular trading and deceptive YouTube videos, with a scripted price action. It was market manipulation rebranded as ‘financial advice’, thanks to finfluencers. In the Gensol Engineering scandal, some retail investors lost up to 95% of their wealth.

    A CFA Institute survey found that:

    • 17% of investors lost money following influencer advice
    • 59% of Indian finfluencers have brand sponsorships
    •  63% don’t disclose these sponsors

    But not all finfluencers are villains. SEBI data shows that 72% of investors who follow finfluencers said they have profited from these recommendations.

    Still, SEBI has flagged over one lakh instances of misleading or unlawful financial content in just the last 18 months — from stock tips to pump-and-dump schemes. A while ago, SEBI shut down a Telegram channel called Bullrun2017 that recommended micro-cap stocks. In this scam, channel admins bought shares of very small companies, recommended them to their subscribers, and then sold them for a profit. SEBI has raided the offices of multiple such Telegram scams, whose channels had many millions of subscribers. 


    AI doesn't fix the bias

    I recently asked ChatGPT two questions:

    1. Is it the right time to buy defence stocks in India?

    2. Is it the wrong time to buy defence stocks in India?

    When I framed the question positively, the response began with optimism — then moved to risks. When I framed it negatively, it started with risks — then moved to positives.

    Large language models reflect the tone of the user’s question. They are incredibly polite, and start by agreeing with your initial framing. It's built to sound like a good friend who doesn't want to hurt your feelings.

    We live in an era where information isn’t just fast — it’s fragmented, filtered, and often fabricated.

    And now, thanks to AI, it’s personalised.

    What’s “true” depends on who’s scrolling.

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    The Baseline
    09 Oct 2025

    Diamonds in the dust: Who's thriving in a tough Q2 earnings season?

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    The early signals for the Q2FY26 earnings are here. The previous quarter was tough, with company revenues in Q1 growing at their slowest pace in over two years. Sectors like banking and FMCG felt the squeeze from weak margins and sluggish urban consumption.

    Expectations are modest for the second quarter, with profit growth for the Nifty 50likely to be in the single digits. Motilal Oswal points out that the quarter’s growth will be "anchored by oil & gas, metals, telecom, cement, and technology," with most consumer and banking segments seeing headwinds.

    Some analysts have kept the IT services sector in the spotlight, but for the wrong reasons. Growth is likely to stay muted as global clients remain cautious due to economic pressures and the early deflationary effects of AI. While the big IT firms are expected to see slower growth, some mid-tier companies, such as Coforge, might buck the trend. Banks are also preparing for a weaker quarter as the profit margins on loans get thinner due to the RBI’s 100 bps rate cuts this year.

    Despite the muted mood, there are still some bright spots. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at Nifty 500 companies with the highest projected revenue and EPS growth in Q2FY26. All of these companies also have consensus ‘Buy’ or ‘Strong Buy’ ratings. The screener includes names like Max Healthcare and Syrma SGS Technology, which signal where analysts see sustained momentum despite the broader slowdown.

    Exciting growth stories with ‘Strong Buy’ rating

    Even in a quarter with modest expectations, some companies stand out for their strong projected performance. The Forecaster expects them to lead in revenue and EPS growth in Q2FY26, while analysts remain bullish on their prospects this quarter.

    Neuland Laboratories is set for a major comeback. After a sharp 33.4% drop in Q1 revenue, Trenldyne Forecaster now predicts its revenue will jump by 45.6% and EPS by 111.8%. This turnaround is tied to its new production facility in Telangana, which will boost its peptide capacity (chemical production) by over 12 times. CEO Sucheth Davuluri noted the first quarter was “below par” due to weak customer orders, but it “doesn’t change our outlook on the healthy growth” expected over the year.

    Meanwhile, GE Vernova T&D and Schneider Electric Infrastructure are benefiting from India's infrastructure spending and the shift toward green energy. GE T&D has secured large orders, including a Rs 500 crore deal to support the grid integration of renewables. Schneider is seeing strong demand from the expansion of data centres and the broader move towards digitisation. Revenue is projected to rise 42.8%, with EPS estimated at 83.3%, supported by its involvement in AI and networking.

    In the consumer market, Radico Khaitan is banking on the strategy of premiumization. Trendlyne Forecaster expects its revenue to grow by 26.8%, driven by its high-end brands, which already make up nearly half of its sales. As more people turn to premium products, the company expects its profit margins to expand significantly.

    Big bets on expansion, new frontiers

    UltraTech Cement, Max Healthcare, and CG Power are fueling their growth through ambitious expansion plans and investments in high-potential areas. UltraTech, already the world's largest cement producer outside of China, has a production capacity of around 172 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). It is on track to increase its capacity to 200 MTPA by 2026, a year ahead of schedule. Recent acquisitions of other cement businesses will further solidify its top position. Revenue is projected to grow 27.4%, with EPS expected to rise 119.2%.

    In the healthcare sector, Max Healthcare is nearly doubling its bed capacity to 10,000 by 2029. A majority of this expansion will come from upgrading existing facilities, which is a faster way than building new ones. The Forecaster projects its revenue to rise 55.1% in Q2 as the company also aims to increase its revenue per patient by focusing on complex and high-value medical treatments.

    CG Power is venturing into the high-tech world of semiconductors. The company is setting up India's first complete chip assembly and testing facility in Gujarat with a massive Rs 7,600 crore investment, supported by government incentives. At the same time, its main businesses in power systems and railway parts remain strong, with a record order book of nearly Rs 13,000 crore.

    From IT to exchanges: Stocks gaining traction this quarter

    Coforge had a good start to the year, with its revenue growing by 52.8% YoY in Q1. CEO Sudhir Singh noted that a strong order book and the largest-ever addition of new employees have positioned the company for growth. For Q2, revenue is projected to grow 33.4%, with EPS expected to rise 87.3%. Analysts at Sharekhan pointed to Coforge’s executable order book of $1.5 billion (~Rs 13,300 crore) over the next 12 months as a key driver of confidence in its FY26 growth trajectory.

    Syrma SGS Technology saw its revenue dip in the first quarter, but its net profit soared, highlighting better operational management. The company is now moving into manufacturing printed circuit boards (backward integration), which will give it more control over its supply chain and improve profit margins. The company’s management is focusing on high-growth and high-margin areas like industrial automation, electric vehicles, healthcare, and smart meters.

    Meanwhile, BSE is drawing attention ahead of Q2 results, with focus shifting to regulatory changes in derivatives trading. Following a directive from SEBI to streamline trading schedules, from September 1, BSE's weekly contracts now expire on Thursdays, while the NSE has moved its expiry day to Tuesdays. Trendlyne Forecaster expects its revenue to surge 34.8% and EPS by 51% in Q2.

    CEO Sundararaman Ramamurthy highlighted that these efforts are aimed at deepening the derivatives market, and he expects a 3–5% growth in trading volumes for monthly and other non-weekly contracts. He added that despite global challenges, strong participation from domestic investors and ongoing reforms provide confidence in the market's long-term growth.

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    The Baseline
    07 Oct 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - October 7, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - October 7, 2025

    By Abdullah Shah

    1. ACME Solar Holdings:

    Motilal Oswal retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this renewable energy producer, with a target price of Rs 370, an upside of 27.5%. Analysts Abhishek Nigam and Preksha Daga forecast a robust growth trajectory, driven by the company's strong project execution, rising momentum in power purchase agreement (PPA) signings, and expansion in the battery storage business.

    ACME's project pipeline ensures strong revenue visibility as the company plans to grow its installed capacity to 5.5 GW from 2.5 GW by FY28. Analysts note the company is actively bidding for utility-scale projects, with new contract wins being crucial for future earnings. 

    Government initiatives to resolve PPA deadlocks for 40 GW of renewable projects should unlock significant long-term profit growth across the sector. The company is tapping into new demand drivers, especially in the emerging battery storage segment, with plans to install 3-3.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of capacity by the end of 2025. 

    Nigam and Daga note that management's focus on commissioning new capacity and entry into the battery storage segment will drive profitability. They expect ACME Solar to deliver a revenue and net profit CAGR of 67.3% and 60%, respectively, over FY26-28.

    2. Star Cement:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this cement producer, with a target price of Rs 325, an upside of 24.5%. Analysts Uttam Kumar Srimal and Shikha Doshi believe that the company’s capacity expansion, plant incentives, and strong demand are key growth catalysts, fueled by the government's infrastructure push in the North-East.

    Star Cement commissioned a 3.3 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) clinker grinding unit in Meghalaya. Analysts note that its plans to further boost its total capacity to 11.7 MTPA by FY27 by adding new facilities in Silchar and Jorhat will drive long-term revenue visibility. They add that the Central government's infrastructure focus has increased cement demand in the North-East, where the company holds a 27% market share.

    Star Cement is also expanding into the Rajasthan market to reduce geographical concentration and diversify its operations. Srimal and Doshi expect this to be an additional demand driver, supported by favourable government initiatives. 

    The analysts note that management's focus on increasing sales of premium cement, which grew by 85% YoY in FY25, and cost optimisation will drive net profit growth. They expect Star Cement to deliver a CAGR of 16% for revenue, 31% for EBITDA, and 52% for net profit, respectively, over FY26-27.

    3. Tata Motors:

    Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this vehicle manufacturer with a target price of Rs 750, an upside of 7.4%. Analysts Chirag Jain and Nandan Pradhan see a clear growth path, driven by a strengthening outlook for both passenger (PV) and commercial vehicles (CV), the company’s upcoming demerger, and the strategic acquisition of Iveco Group.

    Management upgraded its FY26-30 CV industry CAGR outlook to 6-8%, anticipating double-digit growth in H2FY26 as consumer demand recovers. Analysts highlight that recent GST cuts will lower operational expenses for fleet operators, boosting the bottom line. The IVECO acquisition is expected to drive EPS growth and generate strong free cash flow, supporting Tata Motors' profitability goals.

    Jain and Pradhan note that Jaguar Land Rover's (JLR) recent tariff headwinds are now resolved following new trade deals between the US and EU/UK. JLR is also set to resume full production after a halt caused by a cyber-attack, although this disruption is expected to lower liquidity temporarily. They add that the company’s PV segment bookings rose 25-30% from early September to the Navratras. The slowing of the post-Covid surge in used car purchases drove demand for small cars.

    4. Pitti Engineering:

    Deven Choksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this small-cap electrical equipment manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,126, an upside of 15.1%. Analysts praise Pitti Engineering’s strong operations and expansion goals following a visit to its Aurangabad facility. The plant, which spans 26 acres, runs at 65-70% utilisation and can surge to 80% to meet peak demand. Management is pushing for greater automation to boost productivity and reduce manual handling, with 12 additional acres reserved for growth.

    Management will invest Rs 150 crore over the next 18-20 months to expand its lamination, machining, and tooling capacity. Analysts believe this move will fortify the company’s 12% domestic market share. Pitti Engineering hopes to keep its leadership position by focusing on premium products and operational excellence.

    Analysts noted the company’s clever use of leftover steel coils for small laminations, a tactic that minimises waste and boosts profit margins. The company is also establishing a new tooling room at its Aurangabad plant, bringing a key function in-house. The current inventory level stands at 45 days, with a goal to reduce this as the business scales.

    5. V-Mart Retail:

    Ventura initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this retail store company with a target price of Rs 1,069, an upside of 30.4%. Analysts see V-Mart as perfectly positioned to capture India’s booming apparel market, which is projected to surge to Rs 10.6 lakh crore by 2027 from Rs 6.8 lakh crore in 2024 at a 16% annual growth rate.

    Favourable economic trends, including GST rate cuts and a strong monsoon, are set to fuel consumer spending, especially in the Tier 2 to Tier 4 cities that form V-Mart’s core market. To capitalise on this, management plans an aggressive retail expansion, growing its network to 660 stores from 510 by FY28. The company will invest over Rs 350 crore to fund new stores and upgrade existing ones.

    Analysts project revenue to climb at a 16.1% annual rate, reaching Rs 5,094 crore by FY28. This growth stems from higher sales volume, steady prices, and increased footfall. The financial outlook looks strong, with EBITDA and net profit projected to grow at 16.6% and 33.7% annually, respectively, hitting Rs 609 crore and Rs 109 crore by FY28.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    03 Oct 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - October 3, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - October 3, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1.Bharat Electronics (BEL): 

    This aerospace & defence company rose 2.4% over the past week after the Indian Army reportedly issued a Rs 30,000 crore tender for the Quick Reaction Surface-to-Air Missile (QRSAM) project on September 29, appointing BEL as the lead integrator. The project covers the procurement of 5-6 regiments of the indigenously developed ‘Anant Shastra’ missile system. This news adds to a strong year for the stock, which has climbed 45.3% over the past year, outperforming the Nifty 50 index.

    The company won orders worth Rs 712 crore on September 16 for IT infrastructure and cybersecurity solutions. It also secured another Rs 1,092 crore in orders for projects like upgrading electronic warfare systems, enhancing the defence network, and supplying tank subsystems. These consistent wins have helped increase the company's order book to over Rs 1 lakh crore.

    BEL’s Q1FY26 revenue grew 3.5% YoY, but missed Forecaster estimates by 8.7% due to order execution delays caused by the geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran, resulting in supply chain issues. However, a favourable project mix supported a 22.6% YoY jump in net profit, beating estimates by 6.2%. 

    Speaking on the company’s order inflow, BEL’s Chairman & Managing Director, Manoj Jain, noted, “We have 4-5 major leads for our drones business, including Archer unmanned aerial vehicles, where big orders are expected. Further opportunities are present in the loitering ammunition, logistics drones and strong traction for anti-drone systems in export markets.”

    Reflecting this optimism, Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintains its 'Buy' rating on BEL with a target price of Rs 490, an upside of 18.7%. The brokerage expects BEL to deliver revenue and net profit CAGRs of 17.8% and 17.4%, respectively, over FY26-28.

    2. Lupin:

    This pharma company jumped over 3% on October 1 following positive news on multiple fronts. The company received US FDA approval for its Rivaroxaban oral suspension, a medication used to treat and prevent blood clots in children. This newly approved drug has estimated annual sales of approximately $11 million (~Rs 98 crore) in the US.

    Adding to the optimism, the Trump administration clarified that the 100% tariff would apply only to branded and patented drugs, not the generic medicines, which make up most Indian exports to the US. Lupin earns about 40% of its revenue from the US. Its revenue from US generics grew 22% YoY to $282 million (~Rs 2,500 crore) in Q1FY26.

    Earlier this week, Lupin’s subsidiary, Nanomi BV, acquired VISUfarma for €190 million (Rs 1,685 crore). This Amsterdam-based eyecare company has a presence in major European countries, including Italy, the UK, Spain, Germany, and France. The move could be beneficial for the company, as countries with trade agreements, like Europe and Japan, are exempted from US tariffs on pharma products.

    CEO Vinita Gupta said the company is considering steps to manage possible tariffs. “We may move a few high-value products to our US manufacturing site if tariffs are imposed. We are also exploring shifting product rights to the US, which may raise some tax costs but will benefit us, especially for high-value products made in India,” she said. Gupta added that a 10–15% tariff in the US should be manageable, but higher tariffs could affect the company’s operations.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates Lupin’s profit to rise 47% in Q2FY26, with revenue growth of 59% to Rs 6,580 crore. The stock appears undervalued based on its current and future earnings. Its current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24.5 is well below its 5-year average of 54.2.

    Sharekhan has a ‘Buy’ rating on Lupin, pointing to stronger sales in India for diabetes, heart, and respiratory medicines, along with the launch of complex generics and specialty products in the US. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 11% over FY26–27, with margins steady at around 25%.

    3. Poly Medicure:

    Thismedical device manufacturer rose 2.5% on September 25 afterannouncing the acquisition of 100% of Medistream SA, the parent company of the Citieffe Group, for €31 million (approximately Rs 324 crore). The deal marks the company’s strategic entry into the global orthopaedics market.

    Citieffe, an Italian manufacturer, specialises in the orthopaedic trauma and extremities segment, with operations in Italy, the USA, and Mexico. The purchase adds a significant new business line to Poly Medicure’s portfolio, diversifying beyond its core focus on cardiology, critical care, and renal care.

    Rahul Gautam, President of Strategy and Corporate Development,highlighted the market's potential: “Orthopaedics is obviously a large segment in the overall medical devices sector. It's about $61 billion, growing at 3 to 4%. Within that, trauma and extremity is the largest segment at about $12 billion, and it's growing the fastest at about 6 to 7%.”

    This follows the September 3acquisition of the Netherlands-based PendraCare Group for €18.3 million (approximately Rs 188.5 crore). That move was aimed at scaling its global interventional cardiology business. Together, these acquisitions, funded by a ~Rs 1,000 croreQIP in late 2024, strengthen Poly Medicure’s international presence and diversify its revenue streams.

    Financially, the company is on solid ground.Q1FY26 revenue grew 10.8% YoY, while net profit soared 25.7%. This performance was fueled by a 20.1% jump in domestic revenue, credited to strong demand from private hospitals and new product launches. MD Himanshu Baid remainsupbeat: “We continue to remain bullish on the domestic market and reiterate our guidance for revenue growth of 30% for the domestic business for FY26.”

    However, analysts are cautious about the Citieffe Group acquisition. Systematixkept its ‘Hold’ rating, citing fierce competition in the orthopaedics market. While the acquisition is strategically positive for the long term, the company faces near-term hurdles: integrating the new firm, optimising costs, and scaling up in the highly competitive US market. Reflecting this cautious outlook, the brokerage's price target suggests a limited upside of just 5.5% from current levels, despite the company's promising move into high-value orthopaedics.

    4. APL Apollo Tubes:

    The stock of this iron & steel products company closed 2.7% higher on October 1 after it reported positive sales volume growth in Q2FY26. The company's sales volume grew by 7.6% from the previous quarter, hitting over 855,000 tonnes. Its ‘Apollo Structural’ products were the star performer, with sales in that category surging by nearly 20%.

    This positive sales report comes despite management's earlier concerns over US tariffs and a slowdown in government infrastructure spending during the first half of the year. However, Chairman Sanjay Gupta expects a significant turnaround in the coming months, backed by increased government budget allocations for infrastructure. “We are ready with our capacity, product range, and distribution network,” he said, adding that he expects the second half of the year to be much stronger than the first.

    The strong Q2 sales mark a welcome acceleration from the first quarter, when revenue grew by just 3.9% compared to the same period last year due to geopolitical issues and an early monsoon. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates its revenue to grow by 8.4% in Q2, due to expected capacity expansions and demand recovery from railways, aviation, real estate and infrastructure projects. The stock features in a screener of companies which have shown relative outperformance as compared to the industry over the past month.

    Looking at the bigger picture, APL Apollo is in the midst of an ambitious expansion to increase its production capacity from 4.5 to 6.8 million tonnes over the next few years. After the slow start to the year, the company has adjusted its full-year forecast, now expecting sales volume to grow by 10-15%, down from an earlier 15-20% projection.

    Analysts at Geojit BNP Paribas are echoing management’s positive outlook. They see strong growth ahead, driven by the national infrastructure push and rising demand for structural steel. The firm expects a strong recovery in the second half of the year and believes APL Apollo is well-positioned for sustained growth, maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a price target of Rs 1,854.

    5. Premier Energies:

    This electrical equipment maker has risen 2.3% over the past month, driven by new order wins. On September 29, Premier Energies secured two orders worth $20 million (~Rs 177 crore) to supply and install solar power systems in Benin, West Africa. The project also includes installing rooftop solar systems, solar streetlights, and water heaters.

    Earlier in September, the company’s subsidiaries secured orders worth Rs 2,703 crore for supplying solar photovoltaic (PV) modules and cells with a total capacity of 2,059 MW. These recent wins have significantly boosted Premier Energies' order book, which has now reached over Rs 11,000 crore in Q2FY26, up 76.5% YoY. 

    This comes as India's solar sector is set for a transformation, with the government targeting 500 GW of renewable capacity by 2030. Electricity demand is projected to grow 5.8% annually by 2030, with solar energy’s contribution expected to jump from 7.9% to 19.2%. The company plans to boost its solar cell and module manufacturing, tapping into the government’s push for self-reliance in the solar energy sector.

    The company is also expanding into related areas like ingots, wafers, battery storage, and solar inverters. The management expects this to significantly boost revenue, projecting a three-to-four-fold increase over the next two years.

    Premier Energies plans to expand its cell capacity threefold to 10 GW and double its module capacity to 11.1 GW by FY28. Commenting on this, Chief Business Officer Vinay Rustagi said, “We are currently undertaking a Rs 12,500 crore investment over the next three years to indigenise the entire solar value chain in India.”

    Analysts believe this expansion, supported by 10GW of ingot-wafer backward integration and vertical moves into BESS and inverters, positions the firm to benefit from government policies supporting local solar manufacturing. Based on this outlook, Avendus Spark has initiated coverage on Premier Energies with an 'Accumulate' rating and a Rs 1,100 price target.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    03 Oct 2025
    Regulators, from the Fed to SEBI, have become market movers

    Regulators, from the Fed to SEBI, have become market movers

    By Swapnil Karkare

    Ever seen a stunning travel video of a place, only to find out on arriving that it is a crowded mess? That's the "Instagram vs. Reality" trap. The low scenery to people ratio can ruin your vacation.

    After returning from this holiday, I was back to checking my portfolio. Here too, I found that my hopes had crashed into the hard wall of reality. The Fed had cut interest rates by 25 basis points that week — a move that investors like me had hoped would spark a bullish rally. But that didn't happen.

    Instead, inflation warnings, a mixed economic outlook, conflicting opinions among Fed officials about how much more to cut, President Trump complaining loudly about the Fed Chair -- all of this left the market struggling. The S&P 500 dropped by one percent immediately after the rate cut announcement, only to recover during the subsequent press conference. The dominant feeling is of economic uncertainty.

    The Fed's words shake up the market

    The Federal Reserve is now speaking to a market that listens to them more closely than ever before. Harvard University researchers have found that market swings during Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conferences are more than three times higher compared to the Chairs before him. The regulator's words can now move markets as much as corporate earnings or economic data.

    Ask your girlfriend if you are good looking. Then ask your brother. You will probably get very different answers. When it comes to markets, Trump is like the girlfriend, and Powell is like your brother: Trump thinks markets are always doing "great" under his Presidency,  while Powell speaks without any frills. Even when delivering good news (a rate cut, market improvement) he mentions potential bad news that may lie ahead. 

    Powell's press conferences often send markets into a sharp reversal - this is a pattern rarely seen under previous Fed chairs. 

    India's RBI adds to the turmoil

    The trend of markets reacting to every word of the regulator isn't just a US phenomenon. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) faces a similar challenge. Just today, hints of a potential interest rate cut in December sent markets higher. 

    RBI meetings and commentary are now dissected in heavy detail by analysts, so governors have to watch every word. Personalities are also analyzed closely. Under Raghuram Rajan, dovish comments barely moved markets. In contrast, under Shaktikanta Das, dovish messages consistently led to stock market declines.

    The change in RBI's direction has also been very visible after the governor's role went from Das to Sanjay Malhotra in December 2024. The RBI’s approach in currency markets changed dramatically, and under the new governor, it has allowed the rupee more flexibility, letting it move within a wider band. This has led to increased day-to-day volatility in the rupee, with daily trading ranges nearly tripling compared to before.

    Market participants, especially corporates, have reacted by ramping up currency hedging to manage this higher volatility. This differs from Shaktikanta Das’ interventionist approach, where the rupee barely budged. The first rate cut in several quarters also came only when Malhotra took charge.  

    So are regulators the new market movers?

    India's securities market regulator, SEBI, also wields significant power over markets, and is more heavy handed compared to the US equivalent, the SEC.

    When SEBI banned Jane Street Capital in July 2025, it triggered a sharp drop in trading volumes and erased over Rs. 12,000 crore in market value for several financial firms.

    SEBI's reforms in the derivatives market also cooled retail participation. Its moves in derivatives have impacted the business models of major brokerages like Zerodha, which is considering shifting away from the discount brokerage approach and charging fees to make up for the loss in F&O revenues. 

    One argument here is that markets and retail participation are changing fast. The regulators have to respond accordingly. As the current SEBI chief, Tuhin Kanta Pandey, says, “volatility is the new normal”.

    Algorithms add fuel to the fire

    Technology is accelerating these market reactions. With automated systems now responsible for over half of all trading, regulatory news triggers instant positive/negative tagging and algorithmic trades, replacing slow human decision making.

    This speed can be dangerous. A simple typo in Lyft’s 2024 earnings report, which mistakenly projected a 500-basis-point profit surge instead of 50, caused trading algorithms to flood the market. The stock shot up 60% in after-hours trading before the error was caught.

    The Financial Stability Board warns that as finance gets faster, regulators must keep pace. A crisis like the Silicon Valley Bank failure, can now spark global financial turmoil as algorithms react before regulators do.

    The transparency paradox

    Communication in an environment like this is a double-edged sword. Being transparent about the risks for example, helps reduce differences between the analysts the regulator is speaking to, but doesn’t necessarily make their predictions more accurate.

    More transparency and detailed briefings can also cause regulatory errors or miscommunication, causing immediate market disruption. “As the speed of risk and information increases, so does the speed at which trust can be won or lost”, says analyst Martin Moloney. 

    Regulatory statements are no longer just commentary—they are driving asset prices and market volatility.

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    The Baseline
    01 Oct 2025

    The high price of protection: A new fee that is holding America's tech future hostage

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    "Like other Trump schemes, this H-1B caper will backfire," wrote billionaire Silicon Valley investor Michael Moritz in the Financial Times. He argued that the new $100K fee for H1B visas shows a poor understanding of what makes US tech successful. Moritz warned that the high fee will simply push companies to move work to other global cities like Istanbul, Poland, or Bengaluru.

    A single, dramatic policy change has challenged the long-held idea that the best talent must go to the US. For years, the H-1B visa has been the golden ticket for foreign workers, especially those from India, and kept the US tech industry at the forefront. Top US CEOs (including Trump supporter Elon Musk) first arrived in the US on the H1B visa and built some of the biggest tech companies in the world. Nearly one in five computer programmers and one in four scientists in the US are foreign-born. This pipeline of talent, crucial to the American economy, is now at serious risk.

    But the H1B program has also been controversial. Companies claim they need it to hire people with specialised skills, but critics argue that it’s often used to bring in cheaper, mid-level workers earning modest salaries. Trump’s new executive order imposes a $100,000 fee on each H-1B worker, with the policy taking full effect in February 2026. For most firms, that price is impossible – only the richest tech giants could afford to bring in foreign talent at such high prices.

    The proposal has split Silicon Valley. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang criticized it, saying, "We want all the brightest minds to come to the US – remember immigration is the foundation of the American Dream." In contrast, Netflix Co-founder Reed Hastings surprisingly supported the fee, calling it a "great solution" that makes sure the H-1B is "used just for very high value jobs" and gets rid of the uncertain lottery system. Interestingly, Netflix has only about 112 H-1B employees, indicating a lower dependence on the program.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we will look at the possible fallout from the new $100,000 H-1B visa fee: how it prices out most talent, forces companies to offshore high-value jobs to India, and threatens to trigger a "reverse brain drain" away from the US.

    New visa costs put most H-1B jobs out of reach

    The new $100K H-1B fee makes the visa impractical for most jobs. Economists say a company would need to pay a salary of about $225,000 over three years to justify the expense. Yet, only about 5% of all H-1B job postings meet that salary level, meaning most applicants simply won’t qualify for the visa.

    The impact is sharpest on big employers. Amazon, one of the largest users of H-1B visas, had just 4% of its 21,600 recent job postings above the $225,000 mark. IT staffing firms are hit even harder. TCS, India’s largest IT company, had no H-1B applications above the break-even point, with an average salary of $89,461. This shows how much they have relied on the mid-level roles that are now unaffordable.

    Before this change, the typical H-1B cost about $10,000. The 10X jump, combined with the uncertainty of the lottery, is expected to cause applications to plummet. Experts believe companies will turn to offshoring or automation instead—signalling that the US is no longer the top destination for much of the world’s skilled talent.

    Adapt and offshore: How Indian IT is navigating the fee hike

    The new H-1B fee affects Indian IT companies in different ways. Many have already adapted to past US visa shocks, cutting H-1B filings by more than 50% in recent years to build a locally integrated workforce. 

    Indian companies have increased local hiring in the US—which now makes up over half of their US workforce—and shifted more work offshore. Together, they have invested over $1 billion in hiring and training staff in the US.

    Still, the fee hike will hurt. The industry's traditional business model relied on a small team of skilled workers in the US to manage massive projects run by teams in India. The H-1B visa was the route for these on-site workers. Although these visa holders comprise a small fraction of the total workforce (around 3-5%), they are needed for winning and managing projects that generate substantial revenue.

    The financial pain won't be immediate, but it is coming. Since the new fee applies only to fresh applications and not renewals, the real burden will be felt from 2027 onward. Analysts expect the hit to be modest for larger firms—about 0.3–1% on earnings per share. Shweta Rajani, head of mutual funds at Anand Rathi Wealth, noted, “Mid-cap IT stocks like Birlasoft and Persistent may see larger effects, but most large-cap companies can offset some costs through offshoring, local hires, or sharing costs with clients.”

    Reverse brain drain: Skilled work moves to India

    The proposed $100,000 H-1B visa fee could accelerate the relocation of high-value jobs to India. Faced with such a high cost of bringing top talent from their Indian offices to the US, major tech companies and global banks are realising it's much cheaper to expand their operations and hire directly in India. For them, it's a straightforward business decision.

    This trend is already in motion. Citigroup, for example, recently moved nearly 1,000 tech jobs to its business centres in India, where it already has about 33,000 employees. Similarly, JPMorgan Chase has over 55,000 employees in India, and Goldman Sachs is also expected to rely more heavily on its Indian operations.

    Ironically, a policy meant to protect American jobs may push even more skilled work out of the US. Analysts warn this could discourage global talent from coming to America, weaken its edge in innovation, and fuel a “reverse brain drain” that strengthens India’s tech ecosystem.

    As former Tech Mahindra CEO CP Gurnani put it: “This (H1-B fee hike) hurts the US more than it hurts Indian companies, which have reduced their H-1B dependence by 60% in the last five years. In contrast, the dependence on H-1Bs has been going up for American counterparts. He also noted that they will do more offshoring, expand global capability centres (GCCs), and increase automation.

    US big tech will also feel the pain. In FY24 ending September, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple together received more approvals than the top seven Indian IT firms combined. That makes them especially vulnerable to the new fee, forcing them to lean more on their Indian GCCs, which are increasingly handling advanced R&D and product development.

    Commenting on how financial giants are reacting, Abizer Diwanji of NeoStart Advisors noted that banks would be "calibrating a new strategy for the global capability centres." He added, “It appears there will be onshoring of jobs to India, adding new functions. However, none will rush decisions while the situation evolves. They will wait for more clarity.”

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