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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    13 Nov 2025, 02:55PM

    Global indices climb toward record highs, but valuations flash warning signs

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    Global stock markets are racing toward record levels, but not all gains are created equal. From Wall Street to Tokyo and Frankfurt to Mumbai, each market offers a different story.

    Most major global indices are now near their 52-week highs. Their one-year and quarterly performances however, show some differences. The S&P 500 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 have surged on technology and policy tailwinds, while India’s Nifty 500, despite strong economic growth, has posted the weakest one-year return among peers.

    Some markets have lost steam. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Germany’s DAX, though strong over the past year, have flattened recently as growth momentum slowed. 

    The Financial Stability Board (FSB), which monitors global financial risks, recently cautioned that asset prices may be rising faster than fundamentals. FSB Chairman Andrew Bailey said, “Valuations may now be out of step with the uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, leaving markets vulnerable to sudden and disorderly corrections.”

    To make sense of the divergence between markets, we look at global indices through three lenses — their one-year performance, recent quarterly momentum and current P/E ratios. This helps reveal growing, rebounding and overvalued markets. A strong one-year gain can look exciting, but if the recent quarter is flat, it might suggest a slowing rally.

    Tech and policy fuel the market leaders

    The United States has been the heartbeat of the global equity rally. The S&P 500 has risen 14% over the past year and another 7% in the last quarter. This is largely thanks to excitement around artificial intelligence and the outsized performance of a few mega-cap technology firms in the index. The Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100) gained 22% annually and 10% quarterly, as investors doubled down on technology leaders. 

    The ‘Magnificent 7’ — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, and Tesla — together contributed nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s yearly advance, according to recent estimates. 

    Some analysts warn that valuations of big tech have run too far. Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick recently warned of a possible “10–15% drawdown” in global equities due to overheating valuations, suggesting investors remain alert to correction risks.

    Across the Pacific, Japan’s Nikkei 225 has been equally impressive, surging 29% over the past year and 22% in the recent quarter — showing that most of its gains came just in the last few months. 

    The sharp quarterly rise was fueled by a record-breaking rally in technology and export-oriented stocks, with the index posting its best monthly gain in three decades in October. Investors also cheered the election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s new leader, which boosted hopes for fresh government spending and continued monetary support.

    A weak yen added more momentum to the rally by making Japanese exports cheaper abroad, lifting profits for major names like Toyota, Sony, and chip equipment makers. With strong tech momentum, steady policy support, and foreign investors returning, Japan’s market ended the year on a high note, marking one of the world’s biggest rallies.

    Taiwan has followed a similar path. The Taiwan Weighted Index climbed 19% over the past year and 16% in the last quarter, suggesting again that most of its gain came recently. The momentum is largely powered by semiconductor exports and the island’s central role in the global AI chip supply chain.

    Australia’s S&P ASX 200, up 6% annually and 0.2% quarterly, sits mid-pack among global peers. Its performance reflects steady commodity exports and stable financial sector earnings. Iron ore prices have stayed firm, benefiting miners like BHP and Rio Tinto, while strong bank profits have cushioned the index against global volatility. With valuations around 20X earnings, Australian equities appear balanced — neither overheated nor undervalued.

    Markets slowing after a strong year

    Hong Kong and mainland China are moving at different paces. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 29% over the past year and 7% in the last quarter. The rally was driven by Chinese government stimulus and a recovery in tech names like Tencent and Alibaba. However, ongoing problems in the property market have started to dampen investor confidence.

    China’s Shanghai Composite, on the other hand, maintained steadier momentum — rising 16% over the year and 10% in the last quarter. The gains came as policymakers stepped up infrastructure spending and eased credit conditions to support manufacturing and industrial activity. Still, at around 11X earnings, valuations remain low, and investors are cautious about whether these measures can deliver a sustained recovery.

    Germany’s DAX has also delivered strong yearly gains, bouncing back from an energy crisis. But it has been flat in the recent quarter as manufacturing growth slowed. The transition to green energy and rising business costs have also tempered investor enthusiasm. At around 17.5X P/E, the index looks fairly valued, but lacks clear short-term growth drivers.

    In contrast, the UK’s FTSE 100 has been more stable. It posted solid one-year and quarterly gains, reflecting resilience across large-cap sectors such as energy, banking, and mining. With valuations around 19X earnings and proximity to its yearly high, the FTSE 100 appears to be holding its ground better than many of its European neighbors. UK’s weak GDP growth however, may limit the upside.

    India’s steady, high-priced growth

    The Nifty 500 has been the clear laggard among major global indices — up only 5.5% over the past year and 4.6% in the latest quarter. The recent quarterly uptick came after a weak start to 2025, helped by better-than-expected Q2 results, easing inflation, and the government’s GST cuts that boosted consumption and corporate margins.

    Still, the broader one-year performance remains soft due to foreign outflows, tariff pressures, and geopolitical risks. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net sellers in 2025, pulling out nearly Rs 2.6 lakh crore YTD, even as steady SIP-led domestic inflows provided some support to the market. Meanwhile, the US raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, weighing on exports and overall sentiment.

    Cross-border strikes after terror incidents increased risk perception and led to short-term foreign outflows, putting more strain on valuations. Moreover, India missed out on the AI-driven rally that powered developed markets, given its relatively limited exposure to high-growth tech.

    At a lofty 24X PE—one of the highest in the world—valuations have capped returns. Despite this, Goldman Sachs has upgraded India from “neutral” to “overweight,” reversing its October 2024 downgrade.

    Analysts believe the year-long slump in earnings forecasts has now bottomed out, as September-quarter results were stronger than expected. Goldman pointed to growth-friendly measures such as GST cuts, easy liquidity, and RBI rate reductions, adding that “India’s high valuation is now justified by robust domestic investment flows and policy support.

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    The Baseline
    12 Nov 2025, 12:42PM
    Retail investors have driven an IPO boom in 2025

    Retail investors have driven an IPO boom in 2025

    After the 2024 boom in IPOs, investors may have expected a quieter year in 2025, especially as the broader market turned volatile. But the train has not slowed down: companies big and small have continued to line up with their offerings, and investors have been more than willing to buy.

    This year, nearly two-thirds of companies that went public saw listing gains. Even if you closed your eyes and picked an IPO - not exactly a sophisticated strategy - you had a good chance of making a listing profit. 

    A big driver of the momentum in the IPO market? India's retail investors. 

    The rise of the retail investor

    India's families now invest around 5% of their savings into stock market shares and mutual funds. While this sounds tiny, it is up from 2.5% in 2020, a doubling in just five years. Retail interest in IPOs has surged - just 7% of the 300+ IPOs in 2025 got less than 1X subscription of available shares from retail investors.  The median oversubscription from retail investors in the IPO market stands at 7.7X of available shares. The democratization of the IPO market is well underway.

    Some big budget companies went public in 2025, including Tata Capital, LG Electronics, and Groww. Next year, Reliance Jio's listing is among a bumper set that will keep everyone watching the IPO market. 

    India is now the fourth most active IPO destination in the world, and the 300+ listings in 2025 have already raised almost $16 billion. Non-services sectors like general industrials, textiles and construction companies were major players, and around half of the new listings in these sectors held on to their gains over the year.  

    Small is king: Issue sizes are highly skewed towards smaller players

    While India's IPO market is booming, a large percentage of the IPOs - over 70% - are SMEs, and the average issue size is tiny, with a median market cap of around Rs. 249 crore.

    But this fact is not exactly deterring investors. The company with the highest retail oversubscription (of over 1400X) in 2025, Austere Systems, with a market cap of Rs. 15.7 crore and weak financials, has steadily fallen in share price since its listing. IPOs like Citichem India and Fabtech Cleanrooms, with market caps of Rs 17.7 crore and Rs 27.7 crore, were oversubscribed in the retail segment by over 522X and 950X. While Fabtech is sitting on a current gain of 286%, the very low traded volumes and high volatility of these stocks make them risky investments for retail investors. 

    The challenge for retail investors putting money into these IPOs is that these small issues come with higher downside and liquidity risk. These stocks see big intraday swings, and wide bid-ask spreads. Exiting these stocks at peak gains is difficult.

    Average gains have come down in 2025

    While the IPO market has kept its momentum going, the volatility of 2025 has extracted a price. Average listing gains have come down compared to previous years, and is now at its lowest point. This is despite mega IPOs like LG Electronics getting intense subscription interest.  

    The show is only getting bigger

    The crowd is here and the stage is set. The IPO boom is expected to continue in 2026, especially if the broader market stages a recovery, with a US trade deal and better than expected quarterly results for Indian companies.

    But the question of "will the company deliver post its listing date" is not being asked often enough. As the market continues to mature, retail investors should be looking at new issues beyond listing day performance.

    Sector tailwinds and valuation multiples compared to listed peers give investors a good idea of whether their bets have real value. Promoter lock-in periods, and margin trends are other factors. About two-thirds of IPOs this year have been a way for owners to exit. 63% of shares sold in 2025 have been classified as “offers for sale”, rather than “fresh issues”.

    Promoters also often try to time their IPOs with good results, so a higher focus on the overall quality of earnings beyond the most recent quarter and one-off cash flows, is another important factor. With smaller volatile issues dominating the market, investors need to look below the hood at the numbers, to see if the company has fuel to go past its listing momentum. 

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    The Baseline
    12 Nov 2025, 12:11PM
    Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q2FY26?

    Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q2FY26?

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    The second quarter of FY26 marked a recovery for Indian markets. After a shaky start to the year, things improved as global trade tensions eased and inflation dropped to an eight-year low. This boosted investor confidence. The Reserve Bank of India kept interest rates unchanged in August 2025, citing steady growth and rising rural demand.

    Market sentiment has also improved in recent weeks, with progress in US-India trade talks, higher government spending on infrastructure, and stronger manufacturing activity. As companies' margins recovered, investors returned to buying—especially mid-cap stocks, which saw the biggest rebound.

    This positive shift was mirrored in the actions of superstar investors like RARE Enterprises, Ashish Kacholia, Sunil Singhania, and Vijay Kedia who after an abundance of caution in the previous quarter, were actively buying again.

    The chart below highlights how portfolio values of major superstars changed during the quarter. Interestingly, even though these investors added new companies, the total value of their portfolios dipped slightly, as they also sold some existing holdings.

    Each superstar investor's portfolio reflects their unique investing style and sector preferences.

    Sector focus differs among these market leaders—RARE Enterprises has a strong preference for textiles, apparels & accessories, while Ashish Kacholia is focused on general industrial companies. Sunil Singhania favours consumer durables, and Vijay Kedia’s favorite is auto. Dolly Khanna tends to invest more in fertilizer companies, and Porinju Veliyath’s portfolio is led by the software & services sector.

    Vijay Kedia added two new stocks to his portfolio during the second quarter, one of which turned out to be a massive winner — TechD Cybersecurity. Ashish Kacholia also made several new investments, with Jain Resource Recycling emerging as his top performer. Here is a closer look at some of the key investments held by these market veterans.

    Vijay Kedia’s investment in TechD Cybersecurity was a standout, rocketing up 313% after its stock market debut on September 22. Among Kacholia’s picks, Jain Resource Recycling saw a 77.4% gain, followed by strong performances from V-Marc India and Shree Refrigerations. 

    Sunil Singhania’s portfolio also featured a winner with M&B Engineering, which climbed 19.1% during the quarter.

    RARE Enterprises increases its bets on three firms

    The portfolio of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, now managed by Rekha Jhunjhunwala and RARE Enterprises, declined 1.2% to Rs 64,180 crore as of November 10. During the quarter, the fund increased its holdings in two banks — Federal Bank and Canara Bank. Its stake in Federal Bank rose by 0.9% to 2.4%, while its holding in Canara Bank went up by 0.1% to 1.6%.

    Both these banking stocks have recently touched their 52-week highs. The banking sector has been trending upward in the past month, supported by proposed RBI rules that may allow banks to fund mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and attract more foreign investment.

    RARE Enterprises also increased its investment in Titan Company, its largest holding in the portfolio. The fund raised its stake by 0.2% to 5.3%, with the shares now valued at Rs 17,843 crore. Over the past year, Titan’s stock has gained 19.4%, outperforming the gems and jewellery industry by 8.1 percentage points.

    Ashish Kacholia welcomes five new companies, raises stake in two

    Ashish Kacholia’s net worth remained flat at Rs 2,768 crore as of November 10. During the quarter, he added five new companies to his portfolio — three of them newly listed.

    These were Shree Refrigerations, Vikran Engineering, and Jain Resource Recycling, where he holds 3.4%, 1.5%, and 1.1%, respectively. Both Shree Refrigerations and Jain Resource Recycling are trading above their issue prices, while Vikran Engineering is down about 1% from its issue price.

    Kacholia also invested in V-Marc India, a wire & cable manufacturer (2.7% stake), and Pratham EPC Projects, an engineering firm (1.2% stake). Both companies appear in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry price change during the quarter. V-Marc’s stock gained 50.6% over the past year, whereas Pratham EPC’s stock has fallen by over 30%.

    He also raised his stake in Man Industries by 1%, bringing his total ownership to 3%. The steel products maker has risen 21.9% in the past year and scores well on Trendlyne’s checklist with a score of 52.2%.

    Kacholia increased his holding in Vasa Denticity by 0.3%, taking his total stake to 4%. Although the stock declined 7.7% over the past year, it still outperformed its industry average by 9.1%.

    Sunil Singhania makes the most new buys this quarter

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund saw its net worth rise 1.1% to Rs 2,721 crore as of November 10. After a quiet previous quarter, the fund turned very active in Q2, adding six new companies.

    Five of these were newly listed, with Suven Life Sciences being the only exception. His largest new holding was a 6.2% stake in All Time Plastics, whose IPO was oversubscribed 8.3X. The stock now trades 9% above its issue price. Mutual funds have also recently been increasing their holdings in the company.

    Singhania also bought 4% stake in Indogulf Cropsciences, an agrochemical company whose IPO saw a strong 26X subscription but has since dropped 10.2% below its issue price. It appears in a screener of stocks that have outperformed their industry over the past quarter.

    He also invested in Mangal Electrical Industries, Jaro Institute of Technology Management, and M&B Engineering. All three stocks had a flat start after listing, but M&B Engineering has since performed strongly — up 30% from its issue price. The other two stocks have declined in value.

    During the quarter, Sunil Singhania also purchased a 1.3% stake in Suven Life Sciences. The healthcare services company’s stock has jumped 45.3% in the past year, outperforming its industry by 36.8 percentage points. However, the company is yet to turn profitable.

    Vijay Kedia adds two new companies to his portfolio

    Vijay Kedia added two new companies to his portfolio in Q2FY26. As of November 10, his net worth stands at Rs 1,298 crore, down 7.2%. The decline comes as he sold stakes in two companies and saw his biggest holding, Atul Auto, drop 3% over the past month. 

    During the September quarter, Kedia bought a 5.3% stake in TechD Cybersecurity during the September quarter. The IT consulting and software company made its debut at a 90% premium and has continued to surge since then. It also features in a screener of companies with low debt.

    The ace investor also bought a 1% stake in Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services during the quarter. The healthcare facilities company has outperformed its industry by 22.2 percentage points in the last three months. It appears in a screener of companies where FIIs or institutions are increasing their shareholding.

    Dolly Khanna increases stakes in five companies

    Dolly Khanna’s net worth dropped 16.8% to Rs 475 crore as of November 10, as she sold stakes in nine firms, with her holdings in six of them falling below 1%. She now publicly holds 11 companies and increased her stakes in five of them during the second quarter.

    In Q2, Khanna bought a 1.3% stake in Southern Petrochemicals. She had first invested in the fertilizer company in Q1FY26 with a 1.7% stake. The stock has gained 2.1% in the past three months, outperforming its industry by 10.2 percentage points.

    She also raised her holdings in Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers and Prakash Industries by 0.7% each, taking her stakes to 4% and 2.9%, respectively. This is the fifth consecutive quarter she has increased her stake in Mangalore Chemicals, whose stock has surged 107.7% over the past year.

    Prakash Industries, which makes iron and steel products, appears in a screener of companies where mutual funds have increased their holdings over the past two months. Trendlyne classifies it as a “Strong Performer, Under Radar,” based on its Durability and Valuation scores.

    Khanna also bought a 0.4% stake in Coffee Day Enterprises. The coffee chain operator’s shares have climbed 19% in the past year, outperforming its industry by 25.8 percentage points. Additionally, she slightly increased her stake in GHCL, a commodity chemicals firm, by 0.1%, taking her total holding to 1.2%.

    Porinju Veliyath adds a commodity trading firm to his portfolio

    Porinju Veliyath’s net worth dropped 1.1% to Rs 217 crore. During the September quarter, he added Fratelli Vineyards to his portfolio by purchasing a 1.2% stake in the commodity trading and distribution company.

    The company's share price has fallen by 57.6% over the past year. However, it appears in a screener of companies with consistently high return stocks over five years (up 579.5%).

    In Q2FY26, Porinju also increased his holding in Apollo Sindoori Hotels, taking his stake to 2.3%. The company has a Durability score of 65 and a Valuation score of 51.5, indicating strong fundamentals and affordability. This marks the second consecutive quarter that the veteran investor has raised his stake in the hotel stock.

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    The Baseline
    11 Nov 2025, 05:03PM
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 11, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 11, 2025

    By Abdullah Shah

    1. CCL Products India:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this coffee producer, with a target price of Rs 1,140, an upside of 10.1%. The company delivered a strong Q2FY26 – its revenue surged 52.6% YoY to Rs 1,127 crore, driven by higher volumes across both business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-customer (B2C) segments. Analyst Suhanee Shome believes strong volume growth, strategic capacity expansion, and portfolio diversification into FMCG products will fuel long-term growth.

    The company gained market share across channels and geographies, driving growth in its B2B and B2C segments. Management aims to diversify beyond coffee, leveraging its 1.3-1.4 lakh outlet distribution network to launch new FMCG categories like iced tea and snacks. The analyst notes CCL Products is consolidating its position as a leading player in modern trade and e-commerce, holding double-digit market share pan-India and ranking among the top players in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. 

    Shome expects resilient EBITDA growth, despite cost headwinds, and debt moderation efforts to drive net profit growth. She projects CCL Products will achieve revenue and net profit CAGRs of 23% and 31.4%, respectively, from FY26-28.

    2. Narayana Hrudayalaya (NARH): 

    Prabhudas Lilladher retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this hospital chain, with a target price of Rs 2,000, a 13.7% upside. Analysts Param Desai and Sanketa Kohale note the company trades at a discount to peers due to its greater international exposure and fewer planned Indian bed additions over the next two years.

    NARH signed an agreement to acquire 100% of UK-based Practice Plus Group Hospitals (PPG Hospitals) for GBP 183 million (approximately Rs 2,100 crore). This marks its second major international expansion, following the Cayman Islands. The PPG Hospitals operation includes seven hospitals, three surgical centres and two urgent treatment centres, with a total capacity of around 330 beds. Analysts believe the company’s international business will achieve strong margin growth over the next three years as both Cayman's new unit and PPG Hospitals have the potential to scale up.

    Desai and Kohale highlight the company's plan to drive growth in the Indian market through debottlenecking, refurbishment, improved pricing for government scheme patients, and optimising its bed mix over the next three years. They project NARH will achieve a 13.6% revenue CAGR, 17% EBITDA CAGR, and 19.6% net profit CAGR from FY26-28.

    3. DLF: 

    ICICI Direct retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this realty company with a target price of Rs 1,000, an upside of 30.7%. DLF's Q2FY26 pre-sales jumped 6.3 times YoY to Rs 4,332 crore. A strong response to its first Mumbai project, The Westpark, and continued demand for its luxury project Camellias drove this surge. However, revenue declined 17% because of lower booking recognition. Analysts Ronald Siyoni and Dilip Pandey note DLF achieved Rs 15,750 crore in pre-sales during H1FY26, positioning the company well to meet its annual target.

    Management maintains its FY26 pre-sales guidance of Rs 20,000–22,000 crore and expects collections to improve in H2. It plans Rs 5,000 crore in capital expenditure annually for FY26 and FY27 for rental asset additions and new project launches. DLF's 49 million square feet of commercial rental assets operate at 94% occupancy. The company expects to commission an additional 2.7 million square feet in FY26. 

    Siyoni and Pandey believe DLF is well-placed to sustain growth, given its strong launch pipeline worth Rs 60,200 crore. Upcoming launches include residential projects in Goa and Panchkula, along with new phases of Privana, Westpark, and Hamilton in Gurugram and Mumbai. They expect stable sales momentum, robust cash flows, and steady rental income to drive earnings.

    4. UPL: 

    Anand Rathi upgrades this agrochemicals company to a ‘Buy’ call with a target price of Rs 820, an upside of 9%. UPL posted strong Q2FY26 results, with revenue growing 9.5% YoY, driven by improvements in the Latin American, Indian and North American markets. The company reported a net profit of Rs 553 crore, a turnaround from a Rs 443 crore net loss in Q2FY25, supported by a rich product mix and lower inventory costs. Analyst Himanshu Binani believes a focus on differentiated solutions and new product launches will drive growth and improve margins.

    The analyst notes that robust sales volumes of key molecules like Metribuzin, Metolachlor, and Glufosinate in the US market supported North America's 63% YoY growth. Management maintains its 4-8% revenue growth guidance for FY26. It also increased its EBITDA guidance to 12-16% from 10-14%, focusing on introducing higher-margin products. UPL expects H2FY26 improvement from better weather visibility, higher Rabi planting, and strong demand recovery. 

    Binani adds that ongoing capacity expansion in sustainable solutions and biosciences, alongside management's focus on preventing overstocking, will support medium-term growth. He projects UPL will achieve a revenue CAGR of 7.3% and a net profit CAGR of 67.5% over FY26-28.

    5. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 1,960, an upside of 14.2%. Sun Pharma's net profit grew 2.6% YoY to Rs 3,118 crore in Q2FY26, boosted by lower material costs. Revenue increased 8.9%, as strong demand in India and emerging markets drove growth.

    Management highlights strong global momentum in its innovative medicines business. Key products like Ilumya (for psoriasis) and Odomzo (for skin cancer) performed well. Sun Pharma plans to launch Unloxcyt (for certain cancers) in the US and file for a new psoriatic arthritis indication for Ilumya in H2FY26. The company spent Rs 780 crore on R&D (5.4% of sales), allocating 38% to innovative projects in Q2. It expects R&D costs to stay at the lower end of its 6-8% guidance for FY26. 

    Analysts Tushar Manudhane and Eshita Jain believe Sun Pharma is well-placed to expand its branded and specialty therapies globally. They expect steady growth in India, supported by new product launches and a stronger presence in chronic therapies. The specialty portfolio, including Ilumya, Cequa (for dry eye disease), and Odomzo, is seen as the main driver of long-term growth, with an estimated 11% CAGR.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    07 Nov 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 7, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 7, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Lodha Developers:

    This Mumbai-basedrealty company rose 5.4% over two trading sessions after announcing itsQ2FY26 results on October 30. Net profit increased 86.5% YoY to Rs 788.7 crore, while revenue grew 44.7% to Rs 3,798.5 crore. Both figures beatforecaster estimates, supported by strong presales and collections.

    The companyadded a new Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) project with a gross development value (GDV) of Rs 2,300 crore in Q2. This brought first-half additions to six projects worth Rs 25,000 crore,meeting its full-year business development guidance in just six months.

    Projects delayed by Environmental Clearance (EC) issues are nowscheduled for the second half of FY26. A Supreme Court approval in August cleared pending projects, which are primarily in Mumbai. 65% of the year's launches in Mumbai, Pune and Bengaluru are consequently planned for H2.

    On the sales outlook, Managing Director Abhishek Lodhasaid, ”Having delivered more than Rs 4,000 crore of presales consecutively for the last 7 quarters, we are now expected to move up towards the run rate in the high 5,000s or low 6,000s.” Management maintains its full-year presales guidance of Rs 21,000 crore.

    The company is expanding beyond its core Mumbai market. Pune and Bengaluru now account for about 30% of total presales. Reflecting on this shift, Lodhasaid, “When we did our IPO about 4.5 years ago, our total sales from non-Mumbai markets were only 3%.” The company also plans to enter the Delhi NCR market, with a pilot launch planned for FY27.

    Following the results, Motilal Oswalmaintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Lodha, citing steady presales, a stronger launch pipeline post-environmental clearance, and rising non-Mumbai contributions. The brokerage’s price target of Rs 1,888 implies an upside of 53.9%.

    2. State Bank of India (SBI):

    This state-owned bank’s stock rose 2.3% over the past week, hitting an all-time high of Rs 971.4 after strong Q2FY26 results. Net profit climbed 6.9% YoY to Rs 21,137.3 crore, beating Forecaster estimates. An exceptional gain of Rs 4,593 crore from selling a 13.2% stake in Yes Bank boosted profits.

    Revenue jumped 7.4% to Rs 1.8 lakh crore, supported by the corporate and retail banking segments. The bank’s net interest income (NII) rose 3.3%, surpassing estimates, driven by loan growth across the small & medium enterprises, agriculture, retail, corporate, and overseas advances segments. Asset quality improved, with gross and net non-performing assets declining by 40 bps and 11 bps, respectively.

    Following the results, SBI Chairman Challa Sreenivasulu Setty offered guidance for the year. "We expect demand for credit to continue in H2FY26," he noted. "Based on the trend, deposits and credit growth of scheduled commercial banks are expected to range from 11-12% during FY26. However, risks persist from volatile global commodity markets and trade disruptions."

    The bank plans to list its subsidiary, SBI Funds Management (SBIFML), through an initial public offering (IPO). SBI will sell a 6.3% stake, while its partner, Amundi India Holding, will divest 3.7%. SBIFML is India’s largest asset management company with assets under management of Rs 12 lakh crore in Q2FY26 and a 15.6% market share. Both companies have initiated the IPO process and expect it to be completed in 2026.

    Post results, Nirmal Bang maintains its ‘Buy’ call on SBI, with a higher target price of Rs 1,195 per share, a 25% upside. The brokerage is confident in the bank’s long-term growth, driven by its leadership positions in corporate and retail banking, healthy liquidity on the balance sheet, and strong asset quality. It expects SBI to deliver an NII and net profit CAGR of over 12% each, over FY26-28.

    3. Tata Consumer Products:

    This tea & coffee player rose 2.8% on November 3, following the announcement of its Q2 results. The company’s net profit grew 11% YoY to Rs 404.5 crore, helped by inventory destocking, lower finance costs, and a Rs 97 crore tax credit. Revenue increased 18% to Rs 4,965.9 crore, led by growth in its India business. The company beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 2.8% and for profit by 10%.

    Tata Consumer's India business continued its momentum (up 18%), achieving its second straight quarter of double-digit growth. The Foods division surged, driven by performance in value-added salts and the Tata Sampann staples brand.

    The Beverages division benefited from falling tea prices. MD & CEO Sunil D’souza said, “Tea prices declined 20% in Q2. Thanks to a good harvest, we anticipate prices to decline further. Coffee prices remained volatile, specifically due to US tariffs making Brazilian coffee costlier. We expect this volatility to subside and prices to normalise over the coming quarter.” The company projects mid-teens revenue growth for its domestic business in FY26, fueled by higher sales volumes, a push toward premium products, and expansion into high-growth segments. 

    EBITDA margins declined to 13.5% during the quarter amid cost pressures from its international and non-branded businesses. Management expects an accelerated margin recovery in H2FY26, targeting ~15% by Q4FY26.

    Meanwhile, the Starbucks alliance showed a strong recovery in Q2FY26 after a brief slowdown in the quick-service restaurant space. The brand delivered 8% revenue growth, achieved positive same-store sales growth (SSSG), and remained EBITDA positive, signalling healthy core operations. Despite temporary disruptions, the brand continued to expand its menu and footprint, adding 7 new locations, bringing its total to 485 stores across 80 cities.

    Motilal Oswal expects Tata Consumer Products to maintain its growth momentum, helped by growth in the core India business on the back of new product launches and volume growth in the tea business. The brokerage has a ‘Buy’ rating on the company with a target price of Rs 1,450.

    4.3M India:

    Thisindustrial machinery maker surged over 19% last week after reporting a 43% YoY rise in net profit to Rs 191 crore inQ2FY26. This performance was fueled by lower costs for raw materials and growth across all its business segments. EBITDA margin jumped 370 bps to 20.2%, helped by a better mix of products sold and more efficient supply chain management. It features in a screener of stocks increasing net profit and profit margin (QoQ).

    The company’s revenue grew 14%, with all segments contributing to this growth. Safety gear demand, higher auto production, infrastructure spending, and new premium consumer products collectively supported the company’s growth.

    To build on this success, the company is increasing its investment in sales and marketing to expand its market presence and support volume growth. MD Ramesh Ramaduraistated that the results reflected disciplined execution and a strong focus on customers, while also acknowledging that the timing of some project orders contributed to the gains.

    Analystsexpect that the healthcare and consumer segments will maintain their double-digit growth, thanks to upcoming festive season demand and increased spending by institutions. The company's profit margins are expected to remain stable as it continues to focus on selling more high-value, premium products.

    Trendlyne classifies the stock as an ‘Expensive Star.’ However, it is considered undervalued based on its current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio and future earnings estimates. The stock has gained over 16% in the last quarter, though its performance over the past year has been flat.

    ICICI Securities hasmaintained its ‘Buy’ rating and raised the target price to Rs 35,700, pointing to its record margins and strength in the safety and industrial segment. The brokerage expects further growth from a recovery in the auto sector and increased infrastructure spending. They project revenue to grow at 11.6% CAGR over FY26-28, while net profit is expected to grow faster at 19.7% CAGR over the same period.

    5. Latent View Analytics:

    The stock of this data processing services company rose over 3% in the past week after it posted strong Q2FY26 results. The company’s net profit grew 11.3% YoY to Rs 44.4 crore. Revenue saw an even bigger jump, rising 19.3%, thanks to strong demand from its banking, financial services, and consumer goods verticals.

    Its Q2 operating revenue surpassed Trendlyne's Forecaster estimate by 1.3%, largely driven by a massive 80% surge in engagement tied to its 'Databricks' data intelligence platform. Management is very optimistic about this area, expecting Databricks-related revenue to grow from $11 million last year to over $19 million this year, with a $50 million target in three years. Its stock features in a screener of companies with no debt.

    Fueled by this momentum, management has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 19-20%. This optimism is built on the strong growth from Databricks and a growing pipeline of Generative AI projects. However, the company is also investing heavily in these same growth areas like AI and local US hiring, which led it to lower its EBITDA margin guidance for the year to 22-23%.

    Addressing concerns about US visas, CEO Rajan Sethuraman stated the company is "not very concerned," as it has already secured the visas it needs for the next year. Management also highlighted a strong future pipeline, noting that several small, early-stage projects are expected to scale into multi-million dollar opportunities, in addition to four other large deals worth over $1 million, currently in progress.

    This company's stock has weathered the storm of a volatile global tech sector, dipping over 6% in the last year. However, analysts believe this pullback could be an opportunity, as the stock remains in a P/E ‘Buy’ zone. The average 12-month price target from analysts is Rs 523.7.

    Brokerage firm ICICI Direct remains optimistic, keeping its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock while trimming its price target to Rs 500. The firm believes the company is positioned for future growth as clients increasingly adopt its GenAI and Databricks solutions. However, it also notes that the heavy investments in these same areas will likely put some short-term pressure on profit margins.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    06 Nov 2025

    The banking boom: Rising profits, and a wave of investor confidence

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    India's banking sector is buzzing with excitement. Stock prices for nearly all major banks have climbed over the past month, fueling more investor interest. This upswing is happening because several positive forces are coming together: regulatory easing, global capital inflows, and steady business growth are driving a bright future for the country's lenders.

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the finance ministry are considering new rules that could allow banks to fund mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and attract more foreign investment.

    Sashidhar Jagdishan, MD & CEO of HDFC Bank, commented on the proposed M&A rules, “It’s a very positive step…definitely a win-win. It lets us offer another product as part of our services. Even for customers, I believe that it should reduce the cost of the transaction.”

    In parallel, recent Q2FY26 results have convinced investors that banks are on solid ground. Healthy revenue and profit growth in several lenders, improving deposit flows, and a decline in bad loans are supporting the rally. 

    S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that banks have benefited from recent government reforms, “The outlook for Indian banks is expected to improve in FY26 as margin declines halt and profitability gets a boost.”

    Goldman Sachs also highlighted, “With several capital-easing measures taking effect in 2027, and easier offshore borrowing norms, total private-sector credit growth could accelerate over the next two years.”

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we explore what’s driving the momentum, and how these factors are shaping the next phase of India’s banking story.

    Policy changes and global flows reshape banking

    New rules proposed by the government could transform Indian banking, by allowing banks to finance M&A deals, relax certain lending norms, and increase the limit for foreign ownership in state-run banks. If approved, this would be one of the biggest regulatory shifts in a decade, designed to help Indian banks compete on the world stage.

    Global investors are already taking notice. Over the past few months, Dubai’s Emirates NBD recently bought a 60% share of RBL Bank for about $3 billion (~Rs 2,664 crore). Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp invested $1.6 billion in Yes Bank, and Blackstone took a nearly 10% stake in Federal Bank for $705 million. 

    "If the RBI allows state-run banks to fund high-rated M&A deals, then public sector banks will take market share away from foreign banks who’ve been benefitting from this regulatory gap,” noted Bharat Gupta, founder at Au-RRange Ventures.

    On top of this, there is more money flowing within India's financial system. Ratings agency CRISIL expects deposits to grow strongly in FY26, partly because the RBI’s 100 bps cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut has freed up more cash for banks to use. Lending continues to expand at 11–12% annually, and bad loans are at an all-time low — signalling a healthier balance sheet across the system.

    Another regulatory milestone in progress is the upcoming Expected Credit Loss (ECL) framework, set to be implemented from April 2027. This system will require banks to set aside funds for potential defaults in advance, rather than after they occur. 

    While this may cause a one-time hit of around Rs 60,000 crore to sector profits, it will boost transparency and align Indian banking practices with global standards — strengthening long-term stability.

    The big banks hold their ground

    Among industry giants, the latest quarterly results showed stability, though margins remain under pressure for some. HDFC Bank’s profit grew 11% YoY to Rs 18,641 crore, helped by healthy growth in both loans and deposits. Its share of bad loans also fell to 1.2% from 1.3% a year ago.

    ICICI Bank reported a 5% profit increase to Rs 12,359 crore, thanks to steady demand for loans. However, its growth was held back by investment-related losses and tighter profit margins. Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank also reported modest results, feeling the pinch from higher deposit costs.

    Punjab National Bank’s performance was mostly stable. While its income growth was slow, the bank expects things to improve as it adjusts its deposit rates. The story for the major banks overall, is consistent: steady profits and good loan quality, but slower earnings growth due to pressure on their lending profits.

    Mid-sized banks lead the momentum

    While the large banks provided a steady foundation, the real energy this quarter came from mid-sized lenders. Their skill in growing their business without taking on too much risk has caught the eye of investors.

    Bank of Maharashtra, for instance, saw its profit jump 25% YoY to Rs 1,633 crore in Q2. The core income from its lending business (NII) grew by nearly 16%. Karur Vysya Bank’s profit rose 21%, and its total business crossed the Rs 2 lakh crore milestone. Its ratio of bad loans improved significantly, falling to 0.8% from 1.1% last year.

    IDFC First Bank and DCB Bank also showed strong progress. IDFC First now has over four million credit card users and maintains a CASA ratio above 50%, while DCB Bank continues to grow its lending to SME businesses.

    What makes these banks successful is their approach to growth. While Bank of Maharashtra faced slightly thinner profit margins, its CEO Nidhu Saxena noted that "if there is no rate cut this year, then there would be no further contraction in NIM." This kind of stable profitability, along with fewer bad loans, is making mid-sized banks a key growth engine for the sector.

    Laggards face margin and provisioning pressure

    Not every bank has shared in the recent success. Some are struggling with shrinking profits because they need to set aside more money for risky loans.

    IndusInd Bank reported a loss of Rs 437 crore, a sharp dive from a Rs 1,331 crore profit last year. The bank explained that this was mainly due to money set aside for potential losses (higher provisions) on micro-finance loans. The lender also continues to feel the impact of accounting issues uncovered earlier this year, when irregular entries worth about Rs 2,600 crore came to light.

    Likewise, Bandhan Bank's profit fell by 88% YoY to Rs 112 crore, as it faced ongoing stress in its micro-loan business and started shifting its focus to more secure loans (retail and business lending).

    RBL Bank and Union Bank of India also reported weaker revenue and higher provisioning, although both are retaining retail-led strategies with a view to recovery.

    Bandhan has cut its micro-finance share from 47% to 37% of advances by Q2 and aims to reduce it further to 30-32 % over the next 2-3 years. RBL’s new foreign bank tie-up and Union Bank’s retail expansion plan show that they are positioning for a turnaround.

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    The Baseline
    06 Nov 2025
    Earnings season heats up, and superstar investors are smiling

    Earnings season heats up, and superstar investors are smiling

    By Tejas MD

    Profits areup in Q2 results — out of 267 companies in the Nifty 500that have reported results, 166posted positivenet profit growth. Portfolio trackers are finally giving people something better than red arrows to look at.

    October was thebest monthfor theNifty 50since March. But despite this, the index hasn't been able to break the psychological 26,000 barrier. It tried twice in October, stumbled both times, and now hovers below it, like a batsman stuck on 99 not out.

    Superstar investors like Vijay Kediaare cautiously optimistic, cheering from the sidelines.

    “Indian equities are poised to regain momentum by the end of 2025,”saysSiddhartha Khemka, Head of Wealth Management Research at Motilal Oswal. “Valuations are normalising and earnings are expected to rebound sharply in FY27. The market is setting up for the rally.”

    These are optimistic words, but they come with a reminder to be patient.

    Retail investors often look up tosuperstar investorslike Kedia for clues on when to hold and when to strike.  So here, we take a closer look at how India’s superstar investors are playing the current market — who’s swinging for the fences, who’s holding their ground, and who’s pretending not to care (but definitely does).

    Superstar investors eye a comeback in FY26

    For India’s stock market celebrities, the past year has been a lot like a soap opera, with many ups and downs.

    In September 2024, more than a year ago, markets and superstar portfolios were hitting record highs. But by March this year, FII outflows, weak earnings, and US tariff tantrums had sent portfolios tumbling.

    Now, the market’s mood has flipped again from heartbreak to hopeful, thanks to rising share prices and fresh fund infusions.

    Two big winners this quarter areMukul Agrawal and Sunil Singhania.Both saw double-digit jumps in their holdings, thanks to some sharp stock-picking:

    • Neuland Laboratorieskept Agrawal’s portfolio humming.

    • Sarda Energy & Mineralsadded spark to Singhania’s.

    These two investors also went on a mini shopping spree. Agrawal picked up 10 new companies, while Singhania — who in previous quarters trimmed stakes in 14 companies and bought just one — made five new buys.

    Vijay Kedia joined the action as well, adding stakes in two new companies after several quiet quarters where he only reduced positions.

    Not everyone jumped in, though. Akash Bhanshali and Rakesh Jhunjhunwala & Associates (managed by Rare Enterprises) stayed on the sidelines, waiting for market volatility to ease up before making fresh moves.

    What new stocks are superstar investors betting on?

    Superstar investors collectively bought new stakes in 21 companies in Q2. Only one company—Vikran Engineering—caught the fancy of more than one superstar, with both Mukul Agrawal and Ashish Kacholia picking it up.

    Another clear trend here is that superstars are surfing the IPO wave. Out of those 21 new buys, 13 were newly listed in 2025, with nine debuting just last quarter.

    Among the star attractions was TechD Cybersecurity, among the best-performing IPOs of the past quarter. Vijay Kedia wasted no time in grabbing a piece of it.

    Since these are recently listed companies, many of the new buys in Q2 don’t necessarily have strong valuations or high durability scores.

    Many of these newly listed companies may be short-term picks —"let's see how they do" kind of investments. We’ve seen superstars exit new listings quickly. Ashish Kacholia, for instance, held 4.8% inAwfis Space Solutions in Q1FY25 but has already cut his stake to below 1% this quarter.

    Agrawal has focused on fundamentally strong companies. Among his Q2 buys, N R Agarwal Industries, a commercial services & supplies firm, scores high across Trendlyne’s DVM scores. Agrawal was a top buyer in the previous quarter as well, taking new positions in seven companies.

    A sector catching many eyes? Consumer durables. From air-conditioners to appliances, this category features prominently in multiple superstar portfolios.

    Mukul Agrawal and Ashish Kacholia stay nimble, cutting stakes in Q2

    Among the six superstars tracked, nine stocks saw their holdings cut below 1%. All of these cuts came from Agrawal and Kacholia — both known for their swift, surgical exits when markets turn. Most of these stocks were laggards.

    Jyoti Structures, offloaded by Kacholia, was the biggest underperformer, down over 20% in the quarter. Among the sells, onlyAcutaas Chemicals and Raghav Productivityescaped the red zone.

    Vijay Kedia’s 2019 bet Neuland Labs leads the long-term winners 

    Neuland Labs, the pharma player and a multibagger held by both Vijay Kedia and Mukul Agrawal, stands out as the best-performing long-term bet. However, Kedia beat Agrawal in returns for this stock and is laughing all the way to his demat account, thanks to his timely entry in 2019 when Neuland was trading at lower levels.

    On the other side, Akash’s long-term bet, Sudarshan Chemicals, lags compared to other superstar investors’ long-term performers. His biggest holding, Gujarat Fluorochemicals (30% of his portfolio), has underperformed the benchmark index. But Bhanshali's net worth has almost tripled in the past two years due to high performance in their other holdings and some well-timed stealth buys.

    See the complete list of superstar buys here, and their sells here. 


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    The Baseline
    04 Nov 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 4, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 4, 2025

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Brigade Enterprises:

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this real estate developer with a target price of Rs 1,233, an upside of 21.1%. The company delivered strong Q2FY26 results, with revenue jumping 25.6% and net profit soaring 36.6% YoY. Residential sales bookings climbed 15% YoY to Rs 1,460 crore. Analysts Adhidev Chattopadhyay and Saishwar Ravekar highlight that the company achieved record leasing volumes in its office portfolio, driving revenue growth.

    Management aims for its FY26 sales guidance of Rs 9,000 crore, supported by a robust pipeline of new launches for H2FY26 totalling 7.5 million square feet, with a gross development value exceeding Rs 8,000 crore. A strong deal pipeline offers opportunities across both residential and commercial segments, as the company plans to expand in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Chennai. Over the next 12 months, Brigade holds a pipeline of 11 million square feet of projects across South India.

    Chattopadhyay and Ravekar are positive on the company’s hospitality portfolio, which saw 16% YoY revenue growth and is expected to benefit from expansion plans. The company plans to develop nine new hotels with 1,700 rooms across South India, investing Rs 3,600 crore in capex over FY26-30. They project Brigade to deliver a revenue CAGR of 20.6% and a net profit CAGR of 31.2% over FY26-28.

    2. Transport Corporation of India:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this transportation company with a target price of Rs 1,500, an upside of 26.9%. In Q2FY26, revenue grew 7.5% YoY and net profit increased 5.8%, driven by demand from the automobile, fast-moving consumer goods, and consumer durables sectors. Analysts Alok Deora and Shivam Agarwal highlight that the company’s cargo shipping division, Seaways, remains the largest profit contributor.

    Management expects 10-12% revenue and profit growth in FY26 and sees freight division margins recovering from FY27. The company plans a capex of Rs 450 crore for the financial year for new trucks, cold chain expansion, and two additional rail rakes for sport utility vehicle transport. Freight segment margins is expected to bottom out by the end of FY26 and recover by almost 100 basis points in FY27. The supply chain business has benefited from new contracts and higher multimodal movement.

    Deora and Agarwal expect growth momentum to improve as the company scales its cold chain and supply chain network, increases higher-margin less-than-truckload freight, and adds new rail capacity. Analysts point to long-term policy tailwinds like the Sagarmala programme and the government’s plan to double the waterways' share in logistics by 2030 as key structural positives.

    3. Federal Bank:

    ICICI Direct upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this bank, with a target price of Rs 275, an upside of 15.6%. Analysts Vishal Narnolia and Parth Chintkindi highlight the board’s approval of a Rs 6,197 crore preferential issue of 27.3 crore warrants to Blackstone at Rs 227 per warrant, as the key trigger for the upgrade. On full conversion, Blackstone will own 10% and secure a board seat. 

    Management states that fresh capital offers flexibility to accelerate loan growth, invest in new businesses, and explore inorganic opportunities. The bank continues to guide for loan growth at 1.5–2 times the industry average, led by commercial banking, vehicle finance, and property loans. Margins have recovered, with net interest margin improving 12 bps sequentially to 3.1% in Q2FY26, supported by lower deposit cost and a shift toward mid-yield segments.

    Narnolia and Chintkindi believe the capital infusion strengthens the balance sheet and provides ample headroom for growth and margin expansion. They project margins will trend higher as term deposits reprice and loan growth accelerates. New wealth products and the bank’s non-banking finance subsidiary, FedFina, add upside to revenue by FY27. 

    4. Indus Towers: 

    Emkay upgrades this telecom infrastructure company to a ‘Buy’ call, with a target price of Rs 460, an upside of 17.2%. The company posted strong Q2FY26 results, with revenue growing 10.3% QoQ to Rs 8,357.7 crore, driven by improvements in tenancy and revenue per tenancy. The company added 4,301 towers during the quarter, bringing its total to 2.6 lakh. Analysts Pranav Kshatriya and Aryan Tripathi note that the company achieved growth from record tower additions and improved collections from Vodafone Idea.

    Management plans to leverage Bharti Airtel's market presence to expand its operations in Africa, with roll-out expected within 3-6 months. Analysts believe this expansion in Africa will limit capital misallocation risk and create long-term value. However, consistent currency depreciation and challenges in upstreaming dividends from Africa pose major challenges.

    Kshatriya and Tripathi believe the Supreme Court decision, allowing the government to reconsider Vodafone Idea’s AGR dues reassessment, boosts confidence in Indus Towers' long-term revenue visibility. They project Indus Towers will deliver a revenue CAGR of 7.2% over FY25-27.

    5. NLC India:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this power generation company, with a target price of Rs 310, an upside of 18.3%. In Q2FY26, both power generation and thermal output rose 2% YoY, with total generation at 6,767 megawatts. The plant load factor of the TPS-II expansion rose to 43% from 26% over the past year after modifications. Revenue grew 14%, helped by higher sales from the mining segment. However, net profit declined 26% due to lower other income.

    Management notes that operational performance has stabilised, supported by higher plant load factors and stronger coal output. The company aims to double its mining capacity by 2030 and significantly increase both thermal and renewable power capacity, with renewables projected to grow more than seven times. The company highlights upcoming projects, such as Ghatampur thermal units and battery-storage-linked renewable plants, as key earnings drivers.

    Analysts Aditya Welekar and Darsh Solanki believe this expansion pipeline strengthens long-term earnings visibility. They estimate total capital expenditure of Rs 1.2 lakh crore, which will almost double the company’s equity to Rs 18,320 crore by 2030. Welekar and Solanki believe the commissioning of new thermal, renewable, and mining assets will support sustained growth in both volumes and profitability.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    31 Oct 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - October 31, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - October 31, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC):

    The stock of this oil marketing company rose over 10% in the past week. It announced its Q2FY26 results on October 27, reporting a net profit of Rs 7,817.6 crore, a sharp turnaround from the Rs 169.6 crore loss recorded in the same quarter last year. This impressive swing was driven by better refinery margins, inventory gains, and company-wide cost-cutting.

    The company’s Q2 net profit surpassed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimate by 43.9% on the back of strong gross refining margins, of $10.7 per barrel in the quarter. Its stock appears in a screener of companies which have consistently generated high returns over the past five years.

    Addressing the company's oil sourcing, IOC Chairman A S Sahney confirmed that while the share of Russian crude fell to around 18-19% in the quarter from 22% in the last quarter, the company continues to buy it in full compliance with all sanctions. He delivered some good news on the domestic front, noting that the losses on selling LPG cylinders are expected to fall to just Rs 25 per cylinder in the next quarter, down from Rs 100 in the quarter just ended.

    The company’s future growth appears to be on schedule. Management noted that major expansion projects at its Panipat, Gujarat, and Barauni refineries are all on track to be commissioned by mid-2027. So far this fiscal year, the company has done capex of Rs 15,900 crore on these and other projects, and is on pace to meet its full-year investment target of Rs 33,500 crore.

    Reflecting this positive momentum, brokerage firm Emkay has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and raised its target price to Rs 190. The firm is optimistic about the economic environment supporting IOC's profits, but it also cautions that any wild swings in crude oil prices, currency, or government policy could pose future risks.

    2. Varun Beverages (VBL): 

    This beverage bottler & distributor’s stock jumped 9.1% on October 29 after it posted strong Q3CY25 results. Net profit surged 19.6% YoY to Rs 741.2 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 14.6%, thanks to lower inventory and finance costs.

    Revenue climbed 4.8% YoY to Rs 5,195.8 crore, driven by growth in the carbonated soft drinks (CSD), non-carbonated beverages (NCB) and water segments. Strong international sales offset a weaker performance in India, where prolonged rainfall dampened demand. The company's net realisation per case dipped marginally to Rs 179, as lower-margin water products made up a larger share of international sales.

    Varun Beverages plans to expand into the alcoholic beverages business to capture the rising demand for ready-to-drink (RTD) products. The company signed an agreement with Carlsberg Breweries to package and market its beers in Southern Africa.

    The recent stock jump follows a challenging year in which the share fell 22.4%, hit by a slow winter season and unseasonal rains. A high PE ratio of 72.9 in January, compared to the industry average of 32.7, also raised valuation concerns among investors.

    Looking ahead, Chairman Ravi Jaipuria expects a rebound in the domestic market, noting, "We expect double-digit revenue growth in India if the weather remains favourable. While the extended monsoon impacted consumption, we remain confident in the long-term potential. Our ongoing investments position us well to capture demand recovery in the upcoming season.”

    Following the results, Yes Securities maintained its ‘Buy’ rating, raising its target price to Rs 625 per share, a 33.1% upside. The brokerage points to capacity additions, distribution expansion, and new international opportunities as key drivers for long-term growth, forecasting revenue and net profit to grow at 12.9% and 19.1% annually over FY25-27.

    3. Newgen Software Technologies:

    ThisIT solutions company rose 8.5% over the past week after reporting itsQ2FY26 results. Net profit grew 27% YoY, beating Forecaster estimates by 39%. The growth was driven by ramp-up in project execution and higher share of revenue from international markets. Revenue rose 11% YoY, led by a 22% increase in the US and Asia Pacific regions.

    Newgen’s subscription revenue grew 20%, highlighting a steady shift towards recurring income. About 60% of total revenue now comes from subscriptions and support. Banking and financial services remained the largest segment, contributing 68% to revenue, followed by insurance, healthcare, and government clients.

    Analysts believe that the company's move toward recurring revenue model is improving earnings stability. Growth in software-as-a-service (SaaS) and subscriptions has helped offset weaker traditional license sales, which account for 18% of revenue and have slowed due to delays in large deal closures across India and EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa). Newgen added 15 clients in Q2, mainly in the US, Europe/UK, and Singapore.

    EBITDA margin rose 250 bps to 25.5% during Q2, supported by higher revenue from high-margin SaaS and mature markets, along with AI-driven productivity efforts. Co-founder and Director TS Varadarajansaid, “We are leveraging AI to enhance service delivery and productivity, targeting 20–30% efficiency gains over the next year once we deploy all the tools.” He added that their AI-driven automation and document processing are seeing rising adoption, especially among government and enterprise clients.

    ICICI Direct has a ‘Buy’ rating on Newgen with a target price of Rs 1,180. The brokerage said wage hikes in Q3FY26 may slightly impact margins, but higher SaaS contribution, and efficiency gains from automation and AI should support profitability. It projects Newgen’s revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 15% and 26% over FY26–27.

    4. Navin Fluorine International:

    This commodity chemicals company surged to a new all-time high of Rs 5,839 on October 31 following its Q2 results. The company’s net profit jumped 1.5X YoY to Rs 148.4 crore, helped by lower employee costs. 

    Revenue increased 46% to Rs 758 crore due to strong performance across all its business segments. The company beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 6.7%, and for profit by 42.3%. The management raised its FY26 margin guidance to 28-30%, up from an earlier guidance of 25%.

    Navin Fluorine announced a Rs 236.5 crore capex plan to add 15,000 MTPA (million tonnes per annum) of new production capacity at its Surat facility, specifically for R32 refrigerant gas. This expansion is designed to meet the rising demand from the refrigeration and air conditioning sector, both at home and abroad. 

    The company projects a "better second half" driven by its new production facilities coming online and faster completion of large orders, particularly in its high-profit contract manufacturing business. Commenting on this, CFO Anish Ganatra said, “We expect the business to accelerate its growth and are targeting this division to achieve annual sales of $100 million by FY27, driven by delivering on major long-term contracts."

    Following the company’s results, UBS maintained its ‘Buy’ rating with a higher target price of Rs 5,900. The brokerage sees strong medium-term growth potential in its agrochemicals, contract manufacturing, and newer refrigerant products.

    5.Shree Cements:

    Thiscement manufacturer jumped 2.2% on October 29 following strongQ2FY26 results. Net profit skyrocketed, tripling YoY to Rs 308.5 crore, while revenue climbed 17.4% to Rs 4,761.1 crore, fueled by a jump in premium product sales from 15% to 21% of its mix. The companyaims to maintain its premium product share at 20-21% by prioritising higher-margin products rather than pursuing large-volume growth.

    During the quarter, cement sales volumejumped 6.8% YoY to 8.1 million tonnes, decisivelybeating the industry’s 3-5% growth. However, sequential volumes dipped as heavy monsoons in North India stalled construction activity.

    The company's UAE businessposted strong results, driven by robust local demand and higher prices. To capitalise on this momentum, the company is expanding its capacity with a new 3 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) grinding unit and a 0.5 MTPA kiln upgrade. The AED 110 million (~Rs 260 crore) investment will be funded entirely from cash on hand.

    Looking ahead, Shree Cements is targeting a major capacity expansion, boosting production from ~62.8 MTPA to over 80 MTPA by FY28-29. This growth will be fueled by an annual capex of Rs 3,000 crore. MD Neeraj Akhoury confirmed the progress,saying, “The work on the integrated project at Kodla, Karnataka, of 3 million tonnes is in the final stage of completion and expected to be commissioned in Q3FY26.”

    While competitors chase market share, Shree Cement says it is focused on profit over sheer sales volume. This means smart pricing and brand strength rather than just selling more bags. The approach is paying off so far: the company closed its price gap with top rivals to just Rs 15–20 per bag. It also sold more of its premium products and raised overall prices by 9% during the quarter. Akhouryconfirmed that this focus on value is the company's plan for the future.

    Following the results, ICICI Directissued a 'Buy' rating, anticipating accelerating volume growth in H2FY26. The brokerage forecasts CAGR for FY26-28: 11% in revenue, 19% in EBITDA, and 34% in net profit. Profitability will be fueled by a trifecta of factors: higher premium sales, greater use of green power, and lower logistics and fuel costs. 

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    30 Oct 2025

    The thrill fades, but fundamentals improve: Inside India’s selective bull market

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    Just a year ago, investing in India felt like a frenzy. In 2023, trendy sectors like green energy and manufacturing were booming, with many stocks doubling or even tripling in value. Fast forward to 2025, and the party has quieted down. While the market is still moving up, the wild excitement is gone. Rallies are smaller and led by fewer companies, as investors now demand proof of real growth before they buy in.

    So, what changed? After a two-year surge, the market has slowed down and become more cautious. The rapid earnings growth that fueled the boom has slowed in key areas, particularly for smaller manufacturers and mid-sized financial firms. 

    Money isn't flowing as freely either. Foreign investors have become more selective, and local investors are choosing safer bets over exciting new trends.

    This may not be a sign of a downturn, but a transition. Markets often cool off after periods of intense excitement, which helps separate the companies with real, lasting strength from those that were overhyped. 

    This year’s top-performing stocks—like Force Motors, Waaree Energies, and Ather Energy—reflect a new reality. The success is tied to real-world demand for cars, clean energy, and EVs. It’s a clear reminder that while the market’s tone has shifted, the search for genuine growth stories continues—just with a lot more caution than before.

    Samir Arora, Founder of Helios Capital, noted that foreign investors started selling around September 2024, partly due to renewed optimism in the US economy following Donald Trump's political comeback. However, that sentiment soured as he launched trade wars, and unpredictable policies created uncertainty. 

    “Normally, FIIs are buyers, but this time there’s an understandable reason behind their selling,” Arora said. He added that as global allocations shift away from the US, India’s stable growth and policies could draw foreign investors back into its equity markets.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at the best-performing Nifty 500 stocks between November 2024 and October 2025, a period that has seen the market’s pace slow from last year’s (November 2023–October 2024) surge. We also explore what’s changed in investing trends.

    Built in India, rising with consumer demand

    India’s biggest stock gainers of the past year tell a clear story — industrial demand, government support, and changing consumer choices are driving growth.

    The Indian government's ‘Production-Linked Incentive’ (PLI) scheme has been a major boost for the country's modern manufacturers. Solar power company Waaree Energies saw its stock soar as it expanded its production and secured global orders worth nearly Rs 47,000 crore by September 2025. 

    Similarly, Syrma SGS Technology used the PLI for electronics to expand into automotive and industrial parts, backed by an order book of over Rs 5,000 crore as of June 2025. These companies show how Indian manufacturing is shifting from simple assembly to creating high-value products.

    Upgrades to the country's infrastructure also created winners. Force Motors benefited from higher demand for its traveller and trax models used in school transport, tourism, and logistics. It also exited the low-profit tractor business to focus on commercial vehicles. 

    HBL Engineering also benefited, winning large contracts for railway signaling and components, especially for the new Vande Bharat trains.

    Ather Energy’s success points to another big shift: how people in cities are getting around. The electric vehicle maker grabbed investors' attention with its Rizta family scooter, priced around Rs 1.3 lakh, which brought the brand into the affordable segment. By expanding its network and adding affordable models, Ather is showing that Indian EV startups can scale sustainably in a competitive market.

    The quiet winners: how finance and consumers are driving gains

    The comeback of the financial sector has been one of the biggest stories this year. RBL Bank’s rally came after two years of quiet restructuring — its net NPAs dropped to 0.6% as of Q2FY26 from over 2% two years ago, restoring investor faith. The lender also saw steady credit growth in retail and small-business loans while maintaining one of the industry’s highest CASA ratios at 31.9%. L&T Finance saw similar success after shifting its focus almost entirely to retail lending (over 90% of its loan book), a move that investors have rewarded.

    The momentum wasn’t limited to manufacturers. Retailers and lenders saw gains, too. Manappuram Finance grew by expanding beyond gold loans into microfinance and vehicle loans. Vishal Mega Mart, a retail giant, is capturing the growing spending power of smaller towns and rural areas, reporting a rapid increase in sales at its existing stores last year.

    In the pharmaceutical sector, Laurus Labs stood out by successfully pivoting to high-profit contract manufacturing. The company’s contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) segment grew nearly 50% in FY25, offsetting weakness in its generic API business.

    Together, these stories reveal a clear trend: businesses that have improved their fundamentals or have a proven track record of steady consumer demand are outperforming those with exciting but unproven ideas. This signals a new, more mature phase for India's market, where stability and real cash flow are valued.

    Last year’s high-flyers are cooling off after the rush

    Let’s turn the clock back to see what happened to last year’s big market winners—stocks that dominated between November 2023 and October 2024 but have since seen their momentum shift.

    Last year's stock market rally was all about clean energy and industrial transition. Companies like the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) and Inox Wind were huge winners in 2023–24, as the government pushed for more renewable energy. This year, however, both stocks have cooled off. IREDA faced pressure from rising costs, while Inox Wind struggled with project delays.

    Other big winners from 2024, such as Transformers & Rectifiers and Wockhardt, managed to hold their ground but without the same excitement. Transformers & Rectifiers continued to benefit from government projects to modernize the power grid, but faced high material costs. Wockhardt saw a modest recovery as its business in the UK stabilized, but it wasn't enough to repeat its stellar performance from the previous year.

    The one exception was GE Vernova T&D India, which continued its rally, rising 78% this year, thanks to strong demand for power transmission equipment.

    The difference between last year's winners and this year's top performers highlights a shift in the market. As money becomes tighter, investors are choosing businesses like Force Motors, L&T Finance and Waaree Energies that are delivering tangible results. This suggests that India’s bull market is becoming more selective, with investors focusing on companies showing steady results rather than just future potential.

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