We build in revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 8/9/10% over FY20-23E (closely tracking APNT) and initiate coverage on the stock with a Sell recommendation and a DCF-based target price of Rs. 460/sh (implying 55x Sep-22 P/E) as there is nothing on the investor table at 66x Sept-22 P/E. RoICs are likely to mean revert to 22% by FY22/23. Berger Paints (BRGR) has gone toe-to-toe with dominant leader APNT over FY10-20 despite the former's higher industrial salience, implying that its decorative biz has outpaced APNTs. Growth has been smartly navigated alongside improving profitability viaaggressive productinnovation/ premiumisation, efficient marketing and distribution expansion (GM/EBITDAM differential has reduced from 856/924bp to 320/560bp over FY10-20). While this narrative will continue, outperformance is unlikely to be as steep over FY20-23, given that (1) BRGR will have to contend with APNT's stepped-up aggression at the bottom of the pyramid and (2) margin levers seem to be missing.

Background: Berger Paints is the second largest decorative paint company in India. The Company operates seven manufacturing facilities spread across India, and four overseas manufacturing facilities. The company has second largest distribution network of ~11,500 active dealers and ~12,000 tinting machines. Berger has a strong presence in East and North India, which accounts for 60% of its distribution network while South & West India accounts for 40% of distribution network. Company derives ~80% of revenue from decorative paints and the rest from industrial paints of which Automotives accounts for 8%, powder coating accounts for 2%...

EBITDA was down 69.8% YoY to Rs. 92cr, with EBITDA margin contracted 790bps YoY to 9.9% due to decline in revenue and higher employee benefit expenses. Subsequently, net profit dragged 91.3% to...

Q1FY21 consolidated revenues fell 46% YoY led by ~48% YoY drop in the revenue of domestic business. However, revenue fall in subsidiaries was limited to ~20% YoY due to topline growth in Bolix Poland (classification of construction works under essential categories), along with consolidation of newly acquired business of STP Ltd. The management expects strong demand revival, going forward, supported by festive demand, easing restriction in urban clusters (drivers of its premium products). Lower operating leverage drags EBITDA margins...

Berger Paints (BRGR) result was below expectations. Revenue on standalone basis declined at a higher rate compared to Asian Paints (APNT) largely due to higher stress in industrial coatings. However, on consolidated basis, Berger outperformed APNT led by (i) strong performance of a subsidiary in Poland (41% international revenue share, 4% PAT margin) led by higher exposure to external insulation and construction projects business which were not subject to lock-down (ii) inclusion of STP LTD revenue (acquired in Nov'19). Gross margin expansion is likely to sustain led by deflationary raw material cost trend. Only 10% of raw material is imported from China, hence no...

Q4FY20 revenue fell ~8% YoY as a fall in domestic revenue was partially arrested by strong revenue growth of subsidiaries (revenue up ~51% YoY) in Poland and Nepal during Q4FY20. Classification of construction works under essential categories helped drive the performance of subsidiaries in the respective regions, along with consolidation of newly acquired business of STP Ltd. We model volume CAGR of ~6% for FY20-22E supported by faster recovery in demand from rural and suburban regions. Benefit of lower raw material prices to drives profitability...

Background: Berger Paints is the second largest decorative paint company in India. The Company operates seven manufacturing facilities spread across India, and four overseas manufacturing facilities. The company has second largest distribution network of ~11,500 active dealers and ~12,000 tinting machines. Berger has a strong presence in East and North India, which accounts for 60% of its distribution network while South & West India accounts for 40% of distribution network. Company derives ~80% of revenue from decorative paints and the rest from industrial paints of which Automotives accounts for 8%, powder coating...

Berger Paints launched various innovative products (WeatherCoat Anti Dustt & Easy Clean) in the decorative paints category through a sharp increase in its R&D; spend. Launch of premium products and favourable input prices drove gross margins up ~250 bps in FY12-19. With crude oil prices likely to remain low, we expect a further expansion in gross margin, thereby leading...

Decorative business drives modest growth in topline Berger Paints reported Q3FY20 consolidated revenue of Rs. 1,696cr (+4.9% YoY; +6.1% QoQ). The company mainly derives its revenues from Decoratives (~80%) and Industrial paints (~20%). The muted growth in revenue was primarily driven by modest growth in Decorative business on account of late monsoons, early Diwali and general demand conditions. Also, Automotive business continued to be impacted by prolonged slowdown in the automotive sector. On the other hand, Protective coatings business witnessed robust growth during the quarter. As the automobiles sectors...

Background: Berger Paints is the second largest decorative paint company in India. The Company operates seven manufacturing facilities spread across India, and four overseas manufacturing facilities. The company has second largest distribution network of ~11,500 active dealers and ~12,000 tinting machines. Berger has a strong presence in East and North India, which accounts for 60% of its distribution network while South & West India accounts for 40% of distribution network. Company derives ~80% of revenue from decorative paints and the rest from industrial paints of which Automotives accounts for 8%, powder coating...

Better monsoon, government boost in real estate sector & recent fall in crude oil price expected to provide volume growth to the Industry. However, considering the rich valuations, we maintain our REDUCE...

We reiterate our REDUCE rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs. 345 based on 44x FY21E adj. EPS Protective coating, decorative business drive growth in Q1FY20 Q1FY20 revenue came in at Rs. 1,717cr versus Rs. 1,483cr for the same period last year (up 15.7% YoY). The growth was mainly driven by protective coatings business and decorative business owing to the price increase in FY19 and strong volume growth. This growth in volume was driven by aggressive distribution push in tier 2 and tier 3 towns. We expect double digit volume growth to continue in near future, on account of...

Sector: Paints /Mid-Cap | Earnings Update 1QFY20 Background: Berger Paints is the second largest decorative paint company. Company has seven manufacturing facilities spread across India, besides four overseas manufacturing facilities. The company has second largest distribution network of ~11,500 active dealers and ~12,000 tinting machines. Berger has a strong presence in East and North India, which accounts for 60% of its distribution network while South & West India accounts 40% of distribution network. Company derives ~80% of revenue from decorative paints and the rest from industrial paints of which Automotives accounts for 8%, powder coating accounts for 2% and other industries accounts for...

Sector: Paints /Mid-Cap | Earnings Update 4QFY19 Background: Berger Paints is the second largest decorative paint company. Company has seven manufacturing facilities spread across India, besides four overseas manufacturing facilities. The company has second largest distribution network of ~11,500 active dealers and ~12,000 tinting machines. Berger has a strong presence in East and North India, which accounts for 60% of its distribution network while South & West India accounts 40% of distribution network. Company derives ~80% of revenue from decorative paints and the rest from industrial paints of which Automotives accounts for 8%, powder coating accounts for 2% and other industries accounts for 10%. It has strong brands like Berger Silk, Berger Rangoli, Berger Illusions, Berger Weather Coat and Jadoo Enamel....

Berger Paints is the second largest paints company of India headquartered in Kolkata, India. It has 11 strategic manufacturing units and about 170 sales offices.

Margins were below expectations due to the consumption of high-cost inventory, adverse currency movements, and delayed price hikes in Industrial paints. These factors resulted in lower EBITDA and PAT growth of 3-6%, which came in 5-9% below our estimates. Management indicates that this quarter had peak input cost inflation, but margins are expected to improve in 4Q on a softening in crude prices and a stable currency. However, further price hikes are required in industrial paints to fully mitigate input cost inflation. Valuation, at 47x FY20E EPS, already factor in strong growth momentum and margin recovery, and offer limited upsides. We reiterate our Hold rating, with a revised target price...

Berger Paints is the second largest paints company of India headquartered in Kolkata, India.

Berger's Q2FY19 revenues came in line with our estimate but EBITDA and APAT came below. The company posted better performance compared to APL on key counts domestic sales growth ~16% and better volume growth (~15% vs 9%). We believe that the demand in the system is continuously improving and should sustain with better urban and rural demand. As feel good' factor remains with better economic conditions, mainly in the rural markets, improved macros and better monsoon would result in pent-up demand. Being the second largest player in the domestic...

Berger is the second biggest decorative paint company in the country. In Q1FY19, in the decorative segment, Berger reported 15% YoY volume growth. The decorative business constitutes around 80% of Berger's overall business and typically grows at 1.5x the GDP of the country. The current volume growth of...