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The Baseline
15 Jul 2022
Five Interesting Stocks Today
  1. MindTree: This mid-tier IT services company’s stock fell nearly 4% on Thursday, despite an over 5% sequential revenue growth on a constant currency basis in Q1FY23. In fact, its revenue in rupee terms rose over 7.5% QoQ to Rs 3,121.1 crore. This is the eighth consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth. Still, its stock took a beating.

What particularly stood out in Mindtree’s Q1FY23 results was the expansion in its EBIT margin by 30 bps QoQ to 19.2%. This is especially commendable in an environment where tier-I IT companies like TCS and HCL Technologies reported a contraction of 190 bps and 100 bps QoQ, respectively in the same quarter. Mindtree’s focus on mining its accounts, especially its top 100 customers aided both revenue growth and margin improvement for the company, according to its management. Basically, Mindtree laid emphasis on extracting more business from its existing clients at reasonable margin levels.

Revenues from North America grew over 8% QoQ (75% of revenue) in Q1FY23. But investors are fretting over a slowdown in the US and other western countries. This led the  Nifty IT index to fall by over 1.5% on Thursday as the US’ 40-year high consumer inflation of 9.1% in June exacerbated fears of a recession due to a likely aggressive rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. Additionally, the IMF cut the country’s GDP growth forecast to 2.3% from 2.9% recently. Investors fear an economic slowdown in the US and Europe will slow client spending on discretionary technology upgrades. Understandably, Mindtree’s management remained cautiously optimistic on the growth outlook for H2FY23.

  1. Delta Corp: This casino company’s stock has been falling since Superstar Rakesh Jhunjhunwala started selling his stake in the company in early June. That month, Jhunjhunwala sold around 3% stake in the company. The stock tanked 10% and hit a 52-week low of Rs 162.1 on June 16. Junjhunwala and his associates currently hold 3.3% stake in the company, down from 6.17% at the beginning of June. What is bemusing investors is that Jhunjhunwala booked profits ahead of the company swinging back into a net profit of Rs 57.1 crore in Q1FY23 against a loss of Rs 28.9 crore in Q1FY22. Its revenues also jumped 2.3X YoY in Q1FY23.

After Jhunjhunwala’s partial exit from the stock, came the news of its subsidiary–Deltatech Gaming– filing a draft prospectus for an IPO. Deltatech Gaming is planning to raise Rs 550 crore through the IPO. The company plans to use the funds to promote organic growth, do business promotions and strengthen its technology. But there is another headwind that investors might have to contend with. The GST Council is pondering over whether to impose a 28% GST on casinos and online gaming. This will impact Delta Corp’s business. For now, the group of ministers mulling over this issue still stand by their 28% GST rate recommendation, but a decision has been deferred.

  1. Aurobindo Pharma (Auro Pharma): This pharmaceutical company withdrew the proposed stake sale of its arm, Eugia Pharma Specialties on Monday, due to valuation differences, according to reports. If the deal had gone through, valued at $3.4-$4 billion, it could have been the largest deal in the injectables businesses in India. Blackstone and Baring PE Asia were the front runners in the proposed deal to buy a stake in Eugia Pharma.

The buyers wanted to split Auro Pharma and spin off the injectables business, Eugia Pharma, into a separately listed company, according to reports. Auro Pharma’s injectables segment, which includes Eugia Pharma, is a major revenue contributor and contributed 26.8% of the total revenue in Q4FY22. Auro Pharma is an export-focused company, deriving over 75% of its revenue from the US and Europe. Given the bleak outlook in the US businesses due to intense competition and weak Q4FY22 results, the company’s stock fell around 42% from its 52-week high and currently trades near its 52-week low.

In FY22, to counter the pricing pressure, the drug maker launched 10 injectable products in the US. According to its FY22 annual report, growing the injectable business continues to be among the top priorities for the company. The management expects the growth momentum in injectables to continue in FY23 despite price erosion on the back of new product launches.

  1. PI Industries: This agrochemical company’s stock rose 10.7% over the past month till Thursday, outperforming the Nifty 50 index by 9.7% and the agrochemical industry by 5.9% over the same period. This rise over the past month is most likely due to brokerages like Prabhudas Lilladher and ICICI Direct expecting the company to outperform its industry in FY23 and also benefit from the monsoon season. According to Prabhudas Lilladher, agrochemical companies are expected to see lower growth and margins due to the later-than-expected monsoon and elevated raw material costs. Companies with high exposure to the domestic market are expected to be the worst hit. However, companies like PI Industries which are export-oriented will be able to offset high input costs, added Prabhudas Lilladher. Exports accounted for 75% of the company’s total revenue in Q4FY22. The positive outlook of brokerages on the company is reflected in this screener with Nifty 500 companies that are brokers’ top picks. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company’s net profit and revenue is expected to grow 20.1% YoY and 18.6% YoY in Q1FY23, respectively.

The management gave a revenue guidance of 18-20% for both its exports and domestic revenues in FY23. The company already has a strong export order book of $1.4 billion and expects to bag more orders in FY23. Favourable crop prices in the international market could lead to robust growth in exports in FY23, according to reports. The company’s export CSM (custom synthesis manufacturing) segment contributes 75% to total revenue, allowing the company to easily pass-on raw material prices. This would allow its margins to remain stable as the impact of the sharp rise in raw material prices will be reduced, the management added. The company also increased its capex to Rs 500 crore for FY23, compared to Rs 320 in FY22. This capex increase comes as it plans to increase its plant capacity by 1.5X this fiscal year. The company also plans to expand into the pharmaceutical sector and non-agro chemical segments, through acquisitions and new product launches in FY23.

  1. Ceat: This auto tyre company’s stock is rising for four consecutive sessions gaining 9% in the past week. It was also one of the top gainer stocks on Thursday, rising nearly 5% in trade. The company recently launched its ultra-high-performance tyre for the luxury segment. This bodes well for the company as reports suggest luxury car sales are growing in double-digits in 2022. Reports suggest that 17,000 luxury cars were sold in India from January-June in 2022, which is an increase of over 55% from a year ago.

The stock is also rising in anticipation of better Q1FY23 results, which are expected to be released on Wednesday. A report from Nirmal Bang suggests that tyre companies are likely to see single-digit growth in revenue, mostly by 2-4% QoQ because of an increase in OEM (original equipment manufacturing) demand, higher volumes, and price hikes of 2-3% taken in Q1FY23. Also, Nirmal Bang expects that with the increase in two-wheeler demand, OEM sales will go up this quarter. However, margins will still be low in Q1FY23 given commodity cost pressures. As inflation is slightly low and commodity costs have eased, the positive effect on margins is likely to show up in Q2FY23. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates show that revenue is expected to grow 2% in Q1FY23 and the company is likely to report an average net profit of Rs 11.8 crore.

This stock also shows up in the screener where mutual funds decreased their holding in the past month. Although the total change in holdings is marginal (0.2% down), the sentiment from investors largely remains mixed. Trendlyne’s Forecaster shows eight analysts recommend a ‘Buy’ on the stock, while five recommend a ‘Sell’, and three recommend to ‘Hold’ the stock.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movement, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
15 Jul 2022
Market closes higher, HDFC Sec maintains its ‘Add’ rating on Reliance Industries

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 rose over 110 points and closed above the 16,000 mark, with the volatility index, India VIX, falling below 18%. Most European indices traded higher than Thursday’s levels amid mixed global cues. Major Asian indices closed mixed tracking the US indices, which also closed mixed on Thursday. The tech-heavy index, NASDAQ 100, rose 0.3% while the Dow Jones closed 0.5% lower. Investors continue to assess the economic impact of aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal reserve to tame multi-decade high inflation levels. Brent crude oil hovered below $100 per barrel after recovering from its sharp fall on Thursday.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. Nifty Auto and Nifty FMCG closed higher than Thursday’s levels. Nifty IT, which lost about 5% in the last four sessions, closed marginally lower.

Nifty 50closed at 16,049.20 (110.6, 0.7%), BSE Sensexclosed at 53,760.78 (344.6, 0.7%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 13,790.20 (87.6, 0.6%).

Market breadth is balanced. Of the 1,882 stocks traded today, 951 were on the uptick, and 865 were down.

  • ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India, Mahindra Logistics, Thermax, and Home First Finance Company Indiaare trading with higher volumesas compared to Thursday.

  • ACC sees a long build-up in its July 28 future series as its open interest rises 11.9% with put to call ratio of 1.57.

  • Brokerage ICICI Securities maintains 'Hold' rating on Mahindra & Mahindra but raises target price to Rs 1,191 (an upside of 4.6%). The brokerage believes that the recent agreement between the company and British International Investments will not give any technological edge to Mahindra & Mahindra but it will help give the best environmental, social and governance practices other than a long-term investment commitment. It also believes that the only change in the brokerage's previous estimate would be a capex saving of Rs 200 crore in FY24E.

  • LME Copper falls below $7,000/tonne due to a strengthening dollar

  • Stocks like Hinduja Global Solutions, Ceat, Adani Transmission, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, and CCL Products India are in the overbought zone according to the technical indicators relative strength index or RSI and money flow index or MFI.

  • Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) reports its Indian embedded value (IEV) at Rs 5.4 lakh crore as on March 2022 against Rs 95,605 crore in March 2021. The change in value of bonds and government securities because of rising interest rates were factored in while calculating IEV. Also, growth in LIC’s policy sales results in net growth in embedded value of Rs 2,000 crore, according to the management.

  • Adani Enterprises and Adani Transmission hit their life highs of Rs 2,422.9 and Rs 3,015 respectively. Both stocks are rising for three consecutive days.

  • Consumer durables stocks like Titan, Havells India, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Dixon Technologies (India), Whirlpool of India, Bajaj Electricals, among others are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index BSE Consumer Durables is also trading in the green.

  • Federal Bank's Q1FY23 net profit rises 80.8% YoY to Rs 643 crore as net interest earned rises 9% YoY to Rs 3,843 crore. Provisions fall 73.8% YoY to Rs 175.2 crore. The bank's asset quality improves as gross NPAs fall by 84 bps YoY to 2.67% and net NPAs fall by 32 bps YoY to 0.96%.

  • HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Add’ rating on Reliance Industries with a target price of Rs 2,825, indicating an upside of 18.8%. The brokerage believes the recent correction in the company’s stock price due to the levy of the special additional export duty is overdone. It remains positive on the company’s prospects as it expects a recovery in the oil-to-chemical segment led by higher price realisation. With regards to Reliance Jio, it anticipates an improvement in subscriber addition and average revenue per unit. Also, it expects further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses. The brokerage expects the company’s consolidated revenue to grow at a CAGR of 25.1% over FY22-24.

  • Syngene International is trading with more than 31 times its weekly average trading volume. UTI Asset Management Company, Latent View Analytics, PB Fintech, and Aster DM Healthcare are trading at more than five times their weekly average trading volumes.

  • Tata Steel Long Products falls after reporting a net loss of Rs 329.6 crore in Q1FY23 against a profit of Rs 332.7 crore in Q1FY22. This is because of a 94.1% YoY increase in total expenses to Rs 2,489.5 crore. Revenue rose 18.2% YoY to Rs 1,994.2 crore.

  • Auto stocks like Maruti Suzuki India, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Motors, among others are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index Nifty Auto is also trading in the green.

  • Adani Ports is rising as the company winds a privatisation bid for Israel's Haifa Port, a major trade hub on the Mediterranean coast. It also wins the bid to acquire a 30% stake in Gadot, an Israeli chemical, and logistics group for 4.1 billion Israeli New Shekel (approximately Rs 938.4 crore.)

  • Yes Bank signs a binding term sheet with JC ARC LLC and JC Flowers Asset Reconstruction (together JC Flowers ARC) in relation to the sale of identified stressed loans of the bank worth Rs 48,000 crore. JC Flowers ARC's bid will be the base bid for sale of the stressed loan assets through Swiss Challenge method.

  • Syngene International rises as it inks a 10-year pact with Zoetis to develop a drug that treats osteoarthritis in dogs. This agreement is expected to be worth $500 million for Syngene.

  • Angel One is falling despite its Q1FY23 net profit rising 49.5% YoY to Rs 181.5 crore and revenue rising 44.7% YoY to Rs 669.8 crore. The growth in revenue is driven by the broking services segment growing 45.1% YoY to Rs 684.1 crore. The company’s total client base rises 96.2% YoY and 13% QoQ to 1.04 crore and the operating profit margin grows by 71 bps YoY to 37.6%.

  • Max Healthcare Institute falls as reports suggest that private equity firm KKR & Co, the company's largest shareholder, plans to sell its entire share (27.5%) in the company for Rs 10,000-12,000 crore.

  • Tata Elxsi is rising as its Q1FY23 net profit rises 15.4% QoQ to Rs 184.7 crore and revenue rises 6.5% QoQ to Rs 725.9 crore. Revenue growth is driven by the software development & services segment rising 6.1% QoQ to Rs 710.8 crore, this segment contributes 97.9% to the total revenue of the company. EBITDA margin rises by 30 bps QoQ to 32.8% as revenue increases on the back of higher sales volume.

  • Torrent Power rises as it bags a 300 MW wind power project, to be set up in Karnataka, worth Rs 2,600 crore from Solar Energy Corporation of India. The power purchase agreement is for a period of 25 years.

  • ACC’s Q2CY22 net profit falls 60% YoY to Rs 227.3 crore. The management attributes this to an increase in fuel costs globally and rising cost of power. The company’s fuel costs increase 58% YoY to Rs 1,311.9 crore. EBITDA margin fell 13.1 percentage points to 9.7% in Q2CY22 from 22.8% in Q2CY21. However, net sales rise 15.3% YoY to Rs 4,393.3 crore. Revenue from the cement segment rises 13% to Rs 4,154 crore. Total sales volume for cement is also up 10.5% YoY to 7.56 million tonnes.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include IDBI Bank Ltd. (35.25, 5.22%), Syngene International Ltd. (613.20, 4.37%) and Tata Motors Limited (DVR) (228.20, 4.25%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. (345.50, -4.33%), PB Fintech Ltd. (524.15, -3.81%) and 3M India Ltd. (21,928.35, -3.40%).

Volume Rockets

19 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included ITI Ltd. (120.60, 11.25%), EPL Ltd. (182.40, 7.71%) and Aster DM Healthcare Ltd. (213.45, 7.34%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were PB Fintech Ltd. (524.15, -3.81%), UTI Asset Management Company Ltd. (629.30, -3.47%) and 3M India Ltd. (21,928.35, -3.40%).

Syngene International Ltd. (613.20, 4.37%) was trading at 9.5 times of weekly average. Eris Lifesciences Ltd. (674.60, 1.96%) and Latent View Analytics Ltd. (351.20, 4.55%) were trading with volumes 8.4 and 7.1 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

3 stocks took off, crossing 52-week highs, while 7 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52-week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Adani Transmission Ltd. (2,889.35, 0.01%), Blue Dart Express Ltd. (8,170.50, 0.45%) and Adani Enterprises Ltd. (2,405.25, 0.93%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - HCL Technologies Ltd. (883.15, -2.20%) and MphasiS Ltd. (2,141.55, 1.44%).

12 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Tata Motors Limited (DVR) (228.20, 4.25%) and Galaxy Surfactants Ltd. (3,052.45, 3.45%). 7 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. (209.30, -2.58%) and Garware Technical Fibres Ltd. (3,044.55, -2.06%).

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The Baseline
15 Jul 2022
Good days coming for FMCG? | Stocks with share prices rising ahead of results
A new earnings season for the new financial year has begun. This is a critical quarter for investors: while company CEOs like to paint a pretty picture in their forecasts, the Q1 results will give everyone a dose of reality.

It's already clear that Indian IT is feeling the heat of a global slowdown. This sector was a pandemic star, with soaring IT spending during lockdowns. However, other previously beaten down sectors like FMCG may now see a recovery, giving investors a ray of hope.  

In this week’s Analyticks:

  1. The FMCG sector gets a boost as  commodity prices cool off
  2. Screener: Companies seeing their stock prices rise ahead of Q1 results

Let’s get into it.


The FMCG sector is set to post another weak quarter. But is the worst finally over?

There is a saying that ‘When you hit rock bottom, you can only go up’. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, commodity prices witnessed ‘unprecedented’ levels of inflation, as Hindustan Unilever’s chairman put it.

This meant a hard time for India Inc, but it was the common man who bore the brunt as price increases were seen in virtually every product, from onions to cooking oil. Now, there are some signs of relief. 

Consumer price inflation or CPI fell from peak levels of 7.79% in April 2022 to 7.01% in June 2022. Although the CPI is still above its tolerance levels, the RBI expects inflation levels to gradually ease in H2FY23 (contrast this to the US economy, where CPI for June has hit an eye-watering 9.1%). 

In other good news for India, the southwest monsoon covered the entire country on July 2, six days in advance. According to the India Meteorological Department, between June 1 and July 12, India’s cumulative rainfall was 9% over its long-term average. This definitely bodes well for consumer demand in rural India, whose fortunes depend on a bumper kharif season. 

This helps the FMCG sector, which has been struggling with input costs. In just the past one month, the Nifty FMCG outperformed the Nifty 50 by over 10 percentage points. 

Palm oil, which is a key input for FMCG players like Hindustan Unilever, Godrej Consumer, Britannia and Nestlefell over 35% in price since May 2022. Notably, India imports 95% of its palm oil requirements from countries like Indonesia and Malaysia. Back in May 2022, Indonesia relaxed its export restrictions, which ultimately eased the tight supplies of palm oil. 

Moreover, Brent crude spot prices fell by over 10% from their peak levels of $120/bbl on fears of a global recession. This will especially benefit FMCG players in the form of reduced packaging costs. It’s worth noting however, that oil prices have been very volatile, and may rise again when Chinese lockdowns end.

While the dark clouds over this sector are beginning to clear, Q1FY23 has proved to be yet another challenging quarter. 

FMCG players are in for yet another forgettable quarter

Successive price hikes taken by FMCG companies have impacted consumer demand, especially in rural regions in Q1FY23 as well. Companies like Marico witnessed significant downtrading in their edible oil brand ‘Saffola’ as consumers switched to economy labels like Sunpure and Fortune. Moreover, the company witnessed a 1-2% volume fall for its flagship product ‘Parachute’ despite passing on the benefit of price deflation for copra, a key input, onto consumers. 

On a positive note, Dabur and Godrej Consumer witnessed double-digit revenue growth for their personal care portfolio. Dabur also saw strong traction for its food and beverage vertical as out-of-home consumption resumed in Q1FY23. 

However, input cost pressures will weigh negatively on the gross margins of FMCG players in Q1FY23. Even though the prices of edible oils softened at the end of the quarter, FMCG companies consumed high-cost inventory overall. 

Green shoots of recovery might appear from Q2FY23

FMCG players generally carry two months of inventory and have some forward contracts in place to satisfy consumer demand. Hence, they will see the benefit of lower edible oil prices on their gross margins only from September 2022, according to Edelweiss. Basically, investors will see a real improvement in gross margins somewhere in H2FY23. 

Consensus estimates from Trendlyne’s Forecaster see FMCG players clocking 12%+ net profit growth on an average in FY23. However, these estimates haven’t been revised upwards in the last 60 days as market forces remain cautious of the sustainability of this recent cool-off. 

Notably, the actual cool-off in edible oil prices began only in June 2022, and it is still early to judge if the trend will continue. Crude oil is operating at higher levels despite recent corrections. While ICICIDirect does anticipate further correction in commodity prices in the next 3-6 months backed by interest rate hikes, uncertainty in the macro-economic environment remains. 

However, if commodity prices do head back down to their median levels, FMCG players will be able to pass on this benefit to the consumers. This will then stir-up demand and positively drive companies’ sales volume growth in H2FY23.

According to HUL’s chairman Nitin Paranjpe, the FMCG sector is still nowhere close to its normal health. However, there is a clear signal that better times lie ahead of it with a normal monsoon season on the cards and commodity prices down from their peaks. 


Screener: Banking and Finance stocks see a rise in their prices ahead of results

This screener looks at companies that have seen their stock price rise in the past week, ahead of their results.

The screener has 75 companies from the Nifty 500 and 14 from the Nifty 50. The Banking and Finance sector is especially well-represented,  with companies like HDFC Bank, Angel One, Axis Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, and Federal Bank seeing stock prices rise. 

Angel One rose 7.1% in the past week, ahead of its result release on Thursday. The stock has given returns of 32.5% in the past year, supported by a 2X growth in net profit. This along with good operational numbers released in the past week has put faith in the company for further growth in Q1FY23. 

Hindustan Unilevers stock saw a price rise of 4.1% in the past week with its results releasing next Tuesday. With a YoY net profit growth of 11.1% in FY22, this FMCG major has done well despite it being a tough time for the FMCG sector. 

With Oberoi Realty releasing its results on Friday, the company’s stock saw a rise of 9.7% in the past week despite house sales going down by 15% in Q1FY23. The stock gave healthy returns of 20%+ in the past year while its TTM net profit rose by 40%+ YoY.

You can find some popular screeners here.

Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
14 Jul 2022
Market closes lower, Motilal Oswal maintains ‘Buy’ on HCL Tech

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed lower with the volatility index, India VIX, falling below 18.5%. European stocks traded lower than Wednesday’s levels amid weak global cues. Major Asian indices closed mixed despite the US indices closing in the red on Wednesday. US stocks fell after the US consumer price index or CPI rose 9.1% in June, topping analyst estimates. This sharp rise in inflation could lead to a more aggressive rate hike by the US Federal Reserve at its next meeting. On Wednesday, the tech-heavy index, NASDAQ 100, recovered from its sharp fall and closed marginally lower while the Dow Jones fell 0.7%. Crude oil continued to trade below $100 per barrel amid fears of low demand due to slow economic growth.

Nifty Smallcap 100 closed in the red, following the benchmark index. Nifty Pharma and Nifty Energy closed higher than Wednesday’s levels. Nifty IT closed in the red, following the NASDAQ 100, which closed lower on Wednesday.

Nifty 50 closed at 15,938.65 (-28, -0.2%) , BSE Sensex closed at 53,416.15 (-98, -0.2%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 13,702.65 (-24.3, -0.2%)

Market breadth is in the red. Of the 1,882 stocks traded today, 647 were gainers and 1,181 were losers.

  • Zydus Wellness, Rites, Prism Johnson, and AIA Engineering are trading with higher volumes as compared to Wednesday.

  • United Spirits sees a long build-up in its July 28 future series as its open interest rises 1.3% with put to call ratio of 0.62.

  • Bharti Airtel allots 7.1 crore shares on a preferential basis to Google International LLC at an issue price of Rs 734 per share. Total transaction amounts to Rs 5,224.3 crore with Google now holding a 1.2% stake in the company. This is the first allotment of shares by Bharti Airtel for the Rs 7,500-crore fundraising deal signed with Google in January.

  • Stocks like Hinduja Global Solutions, Varun Beverages, Castrol India, and Ceat are in the overbought zone according to the technical indicators relative strength index or RSI and money flow index or MFI.

  • Realty stocks like DLF, Macrotech Developers, Godrej Properties, Oberoi Realty, and Sobha, among others are falling in trade. The broader sectoral index Nifty Realty is also trading in the red.

  • All IT stocks trade in the red. Stocks like Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, Larsen & Toubro Infotech, MindTree and Coforge are down by more than 2%. The broader sectoral index Nifty IT also touches its 52-week low.

  • Oil and Natural Gas Corp, Reliance Industries, Hindustan Oil Exploration, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, among others, rise amid reports of a cut in windfall gains tax and falling crude prices.

  • Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on HCL Technologies despite the company’s net profit falling 8.6% QoQ in Q1FY23. The brokerage remains positive on the company’s prospects given its deep capabilities in infrastructure management services, healthy deal-wins, and robust order pipeline. High exposure to cloud services offers the company resilience during the downtrend in the software industry, the brokerage added. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 13.1% over FY22-24.

  • Sanofi India rises as its board of directors will consider a one-time special interim dividend on July 26.

  • Sanofi Indiais trading with more than 31 times its weekly average trading volume. Orient Electric, ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India, Indoco Remedies, and Hindustan Zinc are trading at more than five times their weekly average trading volumes.

  • India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation eases to 15.18% in June compared to 15.88% in May. This comes after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 7.01% in June 2022 against 7.04% in May 2022.

  • Dabur India to acquire the balance 24% stake in Bangladesh-based Asian Consumer Care for Rs 51 crore. It already holds a 76% stake in the company through its arm Dabur International. It will buy the remaining 24% stake from its joint venture partner Advanced Chemical Industries.

  • Pharma stocks like Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Cipla, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Abbott India, Zydus Lifesciences, Alkem Laboratories, among others are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index Nifty Pharma is also trading in the green.

  • JSW Energy's arm JSW Neo Energy receives an order from Solar Energy Corp of India for setting up a 300 MW wind energy project.

  • Welspun Corp is rising as its associate firm bags a contract to manufacture and supply steel pipes by SWCC. The contract is worth 324 million Saudi riyals (approximately Rs 689.1 crore).

  • Pioneer Investment Fund sells its entire stake (1.27%) in Zydus Wellness for Rs 124 crore in a bulk deal on Wednesday.

  • NHPC gets approval from the Centre to set up a hydroelectric power project in Sawalkot in Jammu and Kashmir worth Rs 973 crore. The project will generate 1,856 MW of power.

  • Hindustan Zinc is rising as its board of directors approves an interim dividend of Rs 21 per equity share, amounting to a total of Rs 8,873.2 crore. The record date is set as July 21.

  • Indian rupee falls for the fourth straight session, to another record low of 79.80 against the US dollar in early trade today.

  • Tata Metaliks is falling as its Q1FY23 net profit declines 98.7% YoY to Rs 1.2 crore as expenses rise, driven by the cost of materials rising 64.2% YoY to Rs 530.9 crore. A drop in domestic steel prices also hurt the company’s profitability. However, its revenue rises 10.5% YoY to Rs 666.4 crore led by an increase in realisation of pig iron and ductile iron pipe by nearly 40% each.

  • Infosys' arm to acquire Denmark-based company BASE life science for 110 million euros in an all-cash deal. This acquisition will help increase Infosys’ expertise in life sciences using digital transformation and also expand its market in Europe. The deal is expected to close in Q2FY23.

  • Mindtree’s Q1FY23 profit falls marginally by 0.3% QoQ to Rs 471.6 crore, however, its EBIT margin is up 30 bps to 19.2%. Revenue increases 7.7% QoQ to Rs 3,121.1 crore with its dollar revenue rising 4% QoQ to $399.3 million. The company’s order book stands at $570 million, up 46.2% QoQ. Employee attrition rises to 24.5% in Q1FY23 compared to 23.8% in Q4FY22.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Adani Transmission Ltd. (2,889.15, 5.80%), Hindustan Zinc Ltd. (283.70, 4.44%) and Petronet LNG Ltd. (225.35, 3.70%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Zomato Ltd. (55.65, -4.63%), Varun Beverages Ltd. (834.80, -4.56%) and Persistent Systems Ltd. (3,172.20, -4.41%).

Volume Rockets

25 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Hindustan Zinc Ltd. (283.70, 4.44%), Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd. (57.20, 4.28%) and Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India Ltd. (1,586.00, 3.79%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Brightcom Group Ltd. (45.95, -4.96%), MindTree Ltd. (2,786.50, -3.93%) and La Opala RG Ltd. (272.45, -2.38%).

Sanofi India Ltd. (6,576.40, 1.18%) was trading at 36.3 times of weekly average. Orient Electric Ltd. (277.90, -1.68%) and ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Ltd. (8,073.55, 1.34%) were trading with volumes 10.7 and 9.9 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

1 stock took off, crossing 52 week highs, while 7 stocks tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stock touching their year highs included - Varun Beverages Ltd. (834.80, -4.56%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - HCL Technologies Ltd. (903.00, -1.61%) and MphasiS Ltd. (2,111.20, -1.67%).

15 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Petronet LNG Ltd. (225.35, 3.70%) and Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd. (65.65, 2.74%). 10 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Canara Bank (209.55, -3.96%) and PCBL Ltd. (111.05, -3.52%).

Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
13 Jul 2022
Market closes lower, Indian rupee hits a new low of Rs 79.67 against the dollar

Trendlyne Analysis

Indian indices closed in the red with the volatility index, India VIX, rising above 18.5%. Nifty 50 fell over 90 points and closed below the 16,000 mark. European indices traded lower despite UK’s gross domestic product or GDP rising 0.5% in May against a 0.2% decline in April. India’s consumer price index or CPI came in at 7.01% in June against 7.04% in May and continues to remain well above the central bank’s upper tolerance level of 6%. The index of industrial production growth rises 19.6% in May as against 7.1% in April led by the manufacturing and power sector.

Most Asian indices closed flat to marginally higher, tracking the US indices futures, which are trading in the green. However, US stocks closed in the red on Tuesday as investors await the crucial inflation print release later today. Brent crude oil futures traded below $100 per barrel after falling 6.8% on Tuesday.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed marginally higher despite the benchmark index closing in the red. Nifty FMCG and Nifty Media closed higher than Tuesday’s levels. Nifty IT closed in the red, tracking the NASDAQ 100, which closed lower on Tuesday.

Markets fell in today's trading. Nifty 50 closed at 15,966.65 (-91.7, -0.6%) , BSE Sensex closed at 53,514.15 (-372.5, -0.7%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 13,726.95 (-52.1, -0.4%)

Market breadth is in the red. Of the 1,884 stocks traded today, 832 were in the positive territory and 992 were negative.

  • Brightcom Group, Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences, Go Fashion (India), and Symphonyare trading with higher volumes as compared to Tuesday.

  • UltraTech Cementsees a long build-up in its July 28 future series as its open interest rises 10.6% with put to call ratio of 0.56.

  • Chemical companies like Clean Science & Technology, SRF, Anupam Rasayan among others are rising as Morgan Stanley sees the current 8-10% correction in Indian chemical equities since June is a buying opportunity, according to reports. The brokerage believes that the chemical companies are seeing some near-term constraints like production outages, material and energy inflation, and a slower increase in capacity. The correction in the broader sector implies headwinds sustain into 2023 presenting a buying opportunity.

  • Mahanagar Gas is rising as it raises retail prices of compressed natural gas (CNG) and piped natural gas (PNG) in Mumbai effective today. The company increases the retail prices of CNG by Rs 4 per kg to Rs 80 per kg and domestic PNG by Rs 3 per standard cubic metre (SCM) to Rs 48.5 per SCM. The city gas distributor attributes the price hikes to rising gas sourcing costs and fall in the rupee against the US dollar.

  • Pharmaceutical companies like Laurus Labs, Aurobindo Pharma, and Granules India, among others, rise. The broader Nifty Pharma index is trading in the green.

  • Indian rupee hits a new lifetime low of Rs 79.67 against the dollar in trade today.

  • Shilpa Medicare is rising as its Bengaluru unit gets a good manufacturing practice certificate from the UK's Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency. The facility will be used to manufacture and test orodispersible films and transdermal systems.

  • Public sector banks like Union Bank of India, Punjab & Sind Bank, Canara Bank, among others rise. The broader Nifty PSU Bank index is trading in the green.

  • ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Cholamandalam Investment and Finance with a target price of Rs 743, indicating an upside of 19.8%. The brokerage remains positive on the company’s prospects given its successful expansion into non-vehicle financing business, wide distribution of branches, and improvements in operational efficiencies through digital initiatives. It expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 19.3% over FY22-24.

  • Zydus Wellness is trading with more than 112 times its weekly average trading volume. KEC International, Shilpa Medicare, BASF India, and Prism Johnson are trading at more than four times their weekly average trading volumes.

  • CARE Ratings is rising as its board of directors will consider a proposal to buy back equity shares on July 20.

  • Nomura cuts its 2023 India GDP growth forecast to 4.7% from its earlier project of 5.4% on persistently high inflation, high imports and slowing growth in exports.

  • FMCG stocks like Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Nestle India, Dabur India, Britannia Industries, Godrej Consumer Products, among others, are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index Nifty FMCG is also trading in the green.

  • Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy is falling as its net loss in Q1FY23 increases by more than 4X YoY to Rs 353.9 crore. The company’s loss widens as the cost of construction materials rises 94.1% YoY to Rs 893.3 crore. However, its revenue marginally grows 1% YoY to Rs 1,206.9 crore on the back of its revenue from the engineering, procurement, and construction segment rising 2.5% YoY to Rs 1,162 crore.

  • Paint stocks like Asian Paints, Berger Paints (India), Kansai Nerolac Paints, Indigo Paints, Shalimar Paints, among others, are rising in trade amid sharp fall in global crude oil prices. Crude prices dropped below $100/ barrel earlier today.

  • Anand Rathi Wealth is rising as its Q1FY23 profit rises 33.6% YoY to Rs 39.7 crore and revenue rises 35% YoY to Rs 131.6 crore. The growth in profit and revenue is driven by the number of active client families rising 17.4% YoY to 7,477 and net flows increasing 395.5% YoY to Rs 1,355 crore. The company’s assets under management grows 15.4% YoY to 32,961 crore.

  • Adani Green Energy’s total operational capacity increases 65% YoY to 5,800 MW. Sale of energy is up 73% YoY to 35,500 lakh units because of capacity addition and performance in solar, wind and hybrid energy portfolios. Wind energy portfolio grew 47% YoY, an 850 bps improvement with 96% plant availability.

  • India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at 7.01% in June 2022 against 7.04% in May 2022. Food and fuel inflation stay elevated at 7.75% and 10.4% respectively, in June 2022. However, food inflation moderated because of a fall in edible oil prices and reduction in supply issues.

  • Delta Corp posts a profit of Rs 57.1 crore in Q1FY23 compared to a loss of Rs 28.9 crore in Q1FY22. Its revenue rises more than 3X YoY to Rs 250.3 crore led by the casino gaming segment, as the gross revenue from the segment rises 6X YoY to Rs 250.7 crore.

  • Gujarat pollution Control Board revokes its closure order on Deepak Nitrite’s Nandesari plant for three months which is shut after a fire incident in June 2022. The permission is to restart operations at the Nandesari plant, except for the areas affected by the fire.

  • HCL Technologies’ Q1FY23 net profit falls 8.6% QoQ to Rs 3,283 crore with EBIT margins down 1.9 percentage points to 17% because of increase in employee expenses by 3% QoQ to Rs 12,978 crore. However, the company’s revenue rose 3.8% QoQ to Rs 23,464 crore. Its order book stands at $2,054 million, 9.1% down QoQ. Employee attrition rate rises to 23.8% in Q1FY23 from 21.9% in Q4FY22.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include IDBI Bank Ltd. (33.85, 4.64%), Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (559.45, 4.52%) and Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Ltd. (383.85, 4.28%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Adani Green Energy Ltd. (2,104.75, -8.28%), Adani Total Gas Ltd. (2,672.10, -4.48%) and Endurance Technologies Ltd. (1,450.70, -3.92%).

Volume Shockers

20 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included KEC International Ltd. (448.10, 9.56%), Anupam Rasayan India Ltd. (705.55, 7.37%) and Privi Speciality Chemicals Ltd. (1,117.95, 7.21%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy Ltd. (288.90, -6.54%), Supreme Industries Ltd. (1,836.00, -3.57%) and IndusInd Bank Ltd. (819.05, -3.31%).

Zydus Wellness Ltd. (1,563.05, -0.43%) was trading at 115.2 times of weekly average. Rites Ltd. (235.00, 1.34%) and Shilpa Medicare Ltd. (416.95, 5.21%) were trading with volumes 39.0 and 20.5 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

3 stocks hit their 52 week highs, while 2 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Varun Beverages Ltd. (874.70, 2.49%), Adani Total Gas Ltd. (2,672.10, -4.48%) and Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. (3,109.35, 0.87%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - HCL Technologies Ltd. (917.75, -1.08%) and Gland Pharma Ltd. (2,445.65, -1.63%).

15 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including KEC International Ltd. (448.10, 9.56%) and Syngene International Ltd. (592.40, 3.78%). 10 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including VST Industries Ltd. (3,168.10, -4.07%) and Endurance Technologies Ltd. (1,450.70, -3.92%).

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The Baseline
13 Jul 2022
Chart of the week: Lower food inflation brings June CPI below estimates

The world is battling high inflation, and India is no different. After rising to above 7% in May, India’s consumer price inflation print again stayed above that level in June at 7.01%. This is well above the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee’s tolerance limit of 6%. The slight drop in June’s inflation level was due to a fall in edible oil prices. 

Inflation in food and beverages, which has the largest weightage (45.9%) in the CPI basket, fell marginally (28 basis points to 7.56%) as a result of the fall in edible oil prices. As a result CPI as a whole fell marginally MoM in June. 

The other major contributors to CPI like fuel, clothing and footwear, and housing continued to rise. Fuel and lighting inflation rose by more than 10% in June, after dipping to 9.54% in May. This shows that energy costs remain high for consumers. Consumers will be hoping that the recent fall in crude oil prices will ease some of this pain in the coming months. 

Overall however, the June CPI number was slightly lower than the estimated 7.1%. This has led Citigroup and Barclays to project a smaller interest rate hike from RBI in their MPC meet in August, with both predicting a 35 bps increase. 

A Reuters poll ahead of the June CPI data release had economists predicting that inflation will persist into the second half of the year. Once the wholesale price index (WPI), or inflation at factory gate is released later in the week, investors will be able to assess how pervasive this phenomenon might be.

Stocks whose results have been declared for the June quarter - Q1FY23
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
12 Jul 2022
Market closes lower, HDFC Sec maintains its ‘Sell’ rating on Avenue Supermarts

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50fell over 150 points and closed 1% lower amid selling pressure towards the end of the trading session. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose above 18.5%. European stocks followed the global trend and traded lower than Monday’s levels. Major Asian indices closed lower, tracking the US indices, which closed in the red on Monday. US stocks fell as investors await the crucial inflation print release on Wednesday. The tech-heavy index, NASDAQ 100, fell 2.2% while the S&P 500 closed 1.2% lower on Monday. Crude oil fell over concerns about another wave of lockdowns in China as Shanghai discovers first case of Omicron sub-variant.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the red, following the benchmark index. Nifty Pharma and Nifty FMCG closed lower than Monday’s levels. Nifty IT, which fell over 3% on Monday, closed lower tracking the NASDAQ 100, which fell 2.2% on Monday.

Nifty 50closed at 16,058.30 (-157.7, -1.0%), BSE Sensexclosed at 53,886.61 (-508.6, -0.9%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 13,779.00 (-107.9, -0.8%)

Market breadth is in the red. Of the 1,888 stocks traded today, 744 showed gains, and 1,073 showed losses.

  • KEI Industries, ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India, Kalpataru Power Transmissions, and Fortis Healthcare are trading with higher volumes as compared to Monday.

  • MindTree sees a long build-up in its July 28 future series as its open interest rises 10.9% with put to call ratio of 0.59.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam rises in trade after the RVNL-SP Singla Constructions consortium receives a letter of acceptance from National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for the construction of 4 laning of NH-5 from Kaithlighat to Shakral Village in Himachal Pradesh. The total estimated cost of the project is Rs 1,844.77 crore.

  • Stocks like Hinduja Global Solutions, Ceat, Endurance Technologies, and Siemens are in the overbought zone according to the technical indicators relative strength index or RSI and money flow index or MFI.

  • Star Health & Allied Insurance Co rises after announcing its partnership with Common Services Centres (CSC), under the Ministry of Electronics & Information Technology. The purpose of this partnership is to provide over 5 lakh CSCs access to Star Health’s insurance products. The company expects this partnership to increase its penetration into rural India and aid in market share growth.

  • Utility stocks like Adani Green Energy, Adani Power, NLC India, NHPC, and JSW Energy, among others, are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index S&P BSE Utilities is also trading in the green.

  • SpiceJet falls after its Managing Director, Ajay Singh, gets booked over allegations of duping a businessman on the pretext of allotting him company shares, according to reports. The complainant Amit Arora says that Ajay gave a fake depository instruction slip (DIS) of shares worth Rs 10 lakh. The company however denies these allegations and plans to file a defamation case against Amit Arora.

  • NMDC is falling as it cuts prices of lump ore and fines by Rs 500 each. Effective from today it sets the price of lump ore at Rs 3,900 per tonne and fines at Rs 2,810 per tonne. This is the second price cut in two months.

  • ITI is trading with more than 20 times its weekly average trading volume. Symphony, HFCL, Indus Towers, and NOCILare trading at more than three times their weekly average trading volumes.

  • HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Sell’ rating on Avenue Supermarts despite the company’s profit rising more than 6X YoY in Q1FY23. The brokerage sets a target price of Rs 2,700, indicating a downside of 31.5%. It remains negative on the prospects of the company given the intense competition it faces in the industry. The company’s footfalls and sales density remaining below pre-pandemic levels is a key concern for the brokerage.

  • Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea, Reliance Jio and Adani Data Networks to participate in the 5G Spectrum auction, set to commence on July 26.

  • Nomura Singapore buys 12.5 lakh shares (0.6% stake) in BLS International at an average price of Rs 214 per share in a bulk deal on Monday.

  • Ahluwalia Contracts rises after securing a contract of construction work of Amity Campus in Bengaluru worth Rs 150 crore. Total order inflow for the company stands at Rs 863 crore in FY23.

  • Bosch to invest Rs 200 crore in Indian markets over the next five years in building advance technologies and digital mobility space, according to the management. It also plans to support OEMs by building partnerships and becoming a major player in the electrification market space. In its annual meeting held on Monday, the company also hints toward a double-digit growth in FY23.

  • HCL Technologies falls to a new 52-week low of Rs 926 per share ahead of declaring its results today. The stock is falling for three consecutive sessions.

  • Pharma stocks like Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Divi's Laboratories, Cipla, Biocon, Zydus Lifesciences, Alkem Laboratories, Aurobindo Pharma, among others are falling in trade. The broader sectoral index Nifty Pharma is also trading in the red.

  • HFCL rises after receiving purchase orders worth Rs 59.2 crore from a private telecom operator. The order involves the rolling out of the fibre-to-the-home network and long-distance fibre networks in many cities across the country.

  • Indian rupee falls to another record low of 79.57 against the US dollar in early trade as foreign investors pull out up to Rs 4,000 crore from Indian equities in July.

  • Trident falls in trade as its June production volumes fall during the month. Bath linen production is down 23.6% YoY to 3,333 metric tonnes (MT), while bed linen and yarn production are down 30.3% YoY to 1.95 million metres and 14.6% YoY to 9,587 MT, respectively. The company’s paper and chemical division's production volumes also falls, with paper volumes down 1.6% YoY to 12,500 MT and chemicals by 9.8% YoY to 7,673 MT.

  • Advent International partners with Pratik Pota and appoints him as the MD & CEO of its portfolio company ‘Eureka Forbes’. His term is for a period of five years, effective August 16, 2022. Before this, Pratik was the CEO at Jubilant Foodworks and also worked with brands like PepsiCo, Airtel, and Hindustan Unilever.

  • Sunteck Realty’s Q1FY23 bookings rise 89% YoY to Rs 333 crore. The company’s collections increase 66% YoY to Rs 285 crore with a collection efficiency of 86%. The company says that new project launches will drive bookings and cashflows in the coming quarters.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Zomato Ltd. (59.00, 5.17%), Adani Green Energy Ltd. (2,294.75, 3.96%) and Indus Towers Ltd. (221.65, 3.91%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include NMDC Ltd. (103.20, -5.32%), REC Ltd. (124.15, -4.87%) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (234.00, -3.72%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

13 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included ITI Ltd. (114.30, 16.63%), Vakrangee Ltd. (29.80, 13.31%) and Balaji Amines Ltd. (3,106.15, 5.72%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Rites Ltd. (231.90, -3.01%), Symphony Ltd. (876.40, -0.66%) and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. (3,929.70, -0.09%).

Indus Towers Ltd. (221.65, 3.91%) was trading at 6.1 times of weekly average. HFCL Ltd. (65.85, 5.28%) and Adani Green Energy Ltd. (2,294.75, 3.96%) were trading with volumes 5.9 and 4.2 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

4 stocks took off, crossing 52-week highs, while 2 stocks hit their 52-week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Blue Dart Express Ltd. (7,881.65, -2.63%), Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. (204.05, 1.47%) and Adani Total Gas Ltd. (2,797.55, 2.98%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - HCL Technologies Ltd. (927.80, -1.67%) and Gland Pharma Ltd. (2,486.30, -0.40%).

13 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including ITI Ltd. (114.30, 16.63%) and Galaxy Surfactants Ltd. (3,004.25, 3.84%). 12 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Responsive Industries Ltd. (139.65, -2.89%) and Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd. (620.20, -2.80%).

Stocks beating their industry consensus view (Rating Scale: 1 is Strong Buy, 2 is Buy, 3 is Neutral, 4 is Sell, 5 is Strong Sell)