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04 Apr 2025

Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 4, 2025

1.Larsen & Toubro:

This construction conglomerate is up 2% over the past month after receiving orders worth over Rs 30,000 crore. In late March, L&T secured its largest order to date, worth over Rs 15,000 crore from QatarEnergy LNG, to establish two offshore complexes.

L&T continues to reduce orderbook risks from domestic fluctuations in recent quarters, with a growing number of orders now coming from international clients. L&T Management has expressed confidence in easily surpassing the 10% order inflow growth target set for FY25, as they anticipate that capital expenditures in India will pick up starting in Q4, supported by a strong international pipeline.Forecaster projects revenue to increase by 18.4% YoY in Q4, with net profit expected to rise by 8%.

The company’s net working capital to sales ratio improved significantly, declining by 390 bps in December 2024, driven by robust customer collections during the quarter. P. Ramakrishnan, Head of Investor Relations, expects the ratio to remain at this level in FY25. The company appears in a screener of stocks that efficiently utilise their capital to enhance return on employed capital.

Thanks to free cash flow generation over the past couple of years, Ramakrishnan says, “The company is stepping up capital allocation into newer business areas like green energy, data centres and semiconductor design.” These initiatives are expected to bear fruit in the company’s upcoming Lakshya plan for FY27-31.

Geojit BNP Paribas maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on L&T. The brokerage anticipates that a strong order pipeline will drive revenue growth at a CAGR of 16% over FY25-27. With a target price of Rs 3,863, the stock has a potential upside of over 18%.

2. Tata Motors:

This car and utility vehicle manufacturer dropped 8.2% in the past week due to concerns over new US tariffs. On April 2, US President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on foreign auto products. Tata Motors is the most affected among Indian automakers as Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) sales in the US contribute over 20% of its revenue.

JLR, the luxury vehicle arm of Tata Motors, contributed most of the company's revenue in FY24. Its wholesale volume in the US increased from 26% in FY24 to 33% in 9MFY25. Analysts estimate a 5-10% drop in JLR’s volume due to US tariffs, which could reduce its earnings per share (EPS) by 15-20%.

JLR’s North America sales grew 48% YoY in Q3FY25. JLR’s CFO Richard Molyneux set a 10% EBIT margin target for Q4FY25 but cautioned that macroeconomic challenges could make it difficult. Recently, Tata Motors’ management reaffirmed its 10% EBIT margin target for Q4 and its plan to be net debt free by FY25.

Tata Motors’ India business reported an 8.4% YoY drop in commercial vehicle (CV) revenue due to weak demand, while passenger vehicle (PV) revenue fell 4.3% YoY in Q3FY25. Shailesh Chandra, MD of Tata Passenger Vehicles and Electric Mobility, said, “We saw 2% growth in 9MFY25 and expect the same for FY25. Demand has been unpredictable, rising in some months and falling in others due to macroeconomic factors.” He added that if economic conditions improve and the budget provides support, the industry could return to 6-7% growth in FY26. Tata Motors, like other auto majors, is facing competition from Chinese players in the international markets and from domestic competitors like M&M and Maruti in the Indian market, as new launches ramp up.

ICICI Securities has a ‘Buy’ rating for the stock with a target price of Rs 831, implying an upside of 35.4%. The brokerage expects Tata Motors' new PV launches and the revamp of its small commercial vehicle (SCV) business to drive growth. It projects a 7.2% revenue CAGR and 19.2% net profit CAGR over FY25-27.

3. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders:

This aerospace & defence company declined by over 7% today. On April 3rd the company’s promoter, the President of India, proposed to sell a total of around 1.9 crore equity shares (4.8% stake) in the firm via an offer for sale (OFS) issue at Rs 2,525 per share.

On April 2nd, the company began production of a Multi-Purpose Vessel (MPV) for M/s Navi Merchants Denmark. Mazagon will design, build and deliver six MPVs at a value of approximately $14 million (approx. Rs 119 crore).

The company’sQ3FY25 results saw net profit rise 28.8% YoY to Rs 807 crore, on the back of declines in raw material and project related costs. Its revenue increased by 30.4%but missed forecaster estimates by 2.2% due to a 9% YoY decline in its order book to Rs 34,800 crore. It appears on the screener for stocks lying in the ‘Sell’ zone.

Morgan Stanley highlighted that naval contracts for submarines and warships involve substantial, long-lead-time projects. The company's strong Q3 profit margins were driven by cost efficiencies on existing, older contracts. However, as new, specifically assigned orders come in, the company will not be able to maintain similar cost efficiency. Consequently, the brokerage believes that profit margins will return to normal levels within approximately 2.5 years, coinciding with the completion of the current order backlog.

Sanjeev Singhal, Chairman & MD of Mazagon Dock, commented on the order book, “ We are executing the existing orders. So the FY25 normalized margin for our industry should be around 12-15% level. Except for the exceptional items like reversal of Liquidated Damages (LDs) and depending upon the D-448 (the acceptance documents for the delivery of ‘Vaghsheer’ submarine) execution, so we don't see much change for the existing orders.”

Geojit BNP Paribas notes that the stock was trading at a 61% premium to its 5 year average last week. Considering this expensive valuation coupled with its likely moderation in earnings growth the brokerage has assigned a ‘Sell’ rating to the stock with a target price of Rs 2,318, based on an expected 24.5x FY27 adjusted EPS.

4. PNB Housing Finance:

Thishousing finance company surged 20.3% over the past month, driven by 202% YoY growth in its affordable-segment loan book to Rs 5,000 crore in FY25 and two upgrades from credit rating agencies.

On March 29,CARE Ratings upgraded the company’s long-term bank facilities to 'CARE AA+' with a 'Stable' outlook, citing stronger asset quality and an improved market position. In reaction, the stock rose 5% on April 1.

Meanwhile,ICRA also upgraded the PNB Housing Finance’s rating to '[ICRA]AA+' with a 'Stable' outlook due to improved asset quality, strong capital resilience, and the stock’s inclusion in the futures and options segment. This upgrade also drove the rise in share price.

InQ3FY25, the company reported a 42.8% YoY increase in net profit, reaching Rs 483.3 crore. A 31% rise in retail disbursements and a 17.5% increase in retail loan assets drove growth. The net NPA improved by 34 basis points YoY, reaching 0.8% in Q3FY25.

Girish Kousgi, MD & CEO,said, “We are confident of achieving our target of a Rs 1 lakh crore retail book by the end of FY27, with the affordable segment contributing 15%, or Rs. 15,000 crore; emerging markets contributing 25%, or Rs. 25,000 crore; and the remaining from the Prime business.”

Management aims to achieve an NIM above 4% and plans to expand into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, growing its network to 500 branches by FY27. It also projects its corporate loan book to reach Rs 7,000-8,000 crore by FY27 and expects the retail loan book to grow by 17-18% annually. Management plans to introduce Loan Against Property (LAP) as a separate segment from FY26.

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on PNB Housing with a target price of Rs 1,160. The brokerage expects retail loan CAGR of approximately 18% by FY27 and projects an improvement in NIM from FY26, driven by lower credit costs and recoveries from previously written-off loans.

5. Shaily Engineering Plastics:

Thisplastics and health products company has nosedived in share price over the past week, falling 20% after ending FY25 on a high note with a year gain of over 250%. The stock has been hit by US President Trump's tariff announcements on Wednesday.

Shaily's relatively new pharma product line has been key to its dramatic growth momentum in the past two years. While revenues for Shaily's consumer and industrial segmentsgrew by 20% and 13% respectively YoY, its pharma segment has been the big outperformer for 9MFY24, growing at 57%. The company appears in a screener of stocks with high TTM EPS growth.

Shaily has ridden the massive growth wave in GLP weight-loss drugs, as a manufacturer of medical pens. The company has built a moat manufacturing insulin pens and auto injector pens (the latter is used to deliver doses of weight loss drugs). These pens are highly regulated, with a long approval process in the US and Europe. Shaily has received the requisite approvals and faces limited competition here.

The management identified this space early on, and the company’s UK R&D center has helped Shaily rapidly ramp up its innovation efforts over the past two years. In February, Managing Director Amit Sanghvi talked about the company's plans to grow aggressively in pen manufacturing, with a focus on auto-injectors. "From having about 35 million capacity right now, we're looking at adding another 50 million to 80 million over a short period of time", he said.

The new tariff regime announced by Trump however, may ruin the party. For Shaily’s clients, 60-70% of end-customers are in the US. Trump's ‘Liberation Day’ announcements are therefore a complicating factor for its business outlook.

Monarch Capital is among the brokerages with an accumulate call on Shaily (with a target price of Rs. 1,600). The analysts note that Shaily aims to increase its healthcare segment revenue contribution to 25% by FY27E vs. 18.6% currently.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

03 Apr 2025

Chart of the Week: Drop in multibagger stocks from 157 in FY24 to 18 in FY25

By Omkar Chitnis

As uncertainty jumped across global markets in FY25, Indian stocks turned volatile. In the first half, the Nifty 50 surged 16.98%, and reached a record high of 26,277.3 on 27 September 2024, supported by market momentum and investor enthusiasm. The trend turned in the second half, however, and portfolios turned red as India’s growth disappointed. Foreign investors pulled their money out, as highly valued Indian stocks posted disappointing corporate earnings in Q2 and Q3.

Hard questions about valuation, which always get postponed when markets are on a bull run, cropped up again. This led to an 8.8% decline in the second half of FY25, limiting the index’s overall return to just 5.3% for the overall financial year.

Despite these challenges, the market showed resilience towards the end of FY25. In March 2025, the Nifty 50 rose 6.3%, with early signs of government spending and improving economic indicators. Foreign investors returned as US stocks lost momentum. But Abhishek Jain, Head of Research, Arihant Capital, cautioned, “Investors should moderate their return expectations, as the market is shifting towards a stock-specific phase rather than broad-based rallies.”

In FY25, finding multibagger stocks proved trickier than usual. In FY24, 215 stocks (with market cap of Rs 5,000 crore and above) gave multibagger returns, but in this fiscal year it dropped to just 38. Similarly, among Nifty 500 stocks, 157 gave multibagger returns in FY24, but only 18 managed to do so in FY25.

Jai Balaji Industries, GE Vernova, and Aurionpro Solutions saw the highest returns of 2,031%, 640%, and 650% in FY24 but could not maintain that performance in FY25. Among the top multibaggers in FY24 and FY25, BSE was the only stock to feature in both years, delivering returns of 516% and 122.5%, respectively.

PG Electroplast, Shakti Pumps, V2 Retail, and Shaily Engineering are among the top stocks that outperformed the market trend in FY25. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyze the top multibagger stocks in FY25 and why they beat the market index.

Government incentivesgive defense, energy, and electronics industries a boost

The government’s 'Make in India' push gave electronics, defense, and renewable energy industries momentum in FY25. Increased spending and initiatives like the PLI scheme for white goods and electronics also drove growth in these sectors.

PG Electroplast, the largest supplier of plastic-molded components for the consumer electronics industry, saw its share price rise by over 476% in FY25. Increased demand for electronics, production shifts from China, and PLI benefits for white goods contributed to this growth.

Shakti Pumps, a market leader in solar pumps within the industrial machinery industry, saw a 335% stock gain. The company capitalized on its 40% share in solar PV water pumping systems and government schemes, securing orders of Rs 2,070 crore, including from the Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan state governments under PM-KUSUM for FY25. A QIP and a bonus issue contributed to the stock price jump.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, a leading manufacturer of defense warships and submarines within the defense industry, saw its stock price increase by 179% in FY25. Government orders and increased defense investments expanded its order book to Rs 34,787 crore in Q3FY25, supported by major contracts, including those for ONGC and submarine projects.

Some cyclical stocks rise on better operational and financial performance

Cyclical stocks in FY25 fluctuated due to economic slowdowns, commodity price changes, and supply chain disruptions. Sectors such as power, engineering, automotive, metals, and gold saw higher volatility. But companies like Shaily Engineering and GMR Power outperformed the broader market.

Shaily Engineering, a high-precision engineered plastic products exporter, saw its shares rise by 252% in FY25. Growth was supported by a 94% increase in healthcare sales and a 56% YoY rise in EBITDA. The company expects medical devices to contribute 25% of its revenue within three years.

GMR Power, an electric utilities company, saw its shares rise 160% after securing a Rs 7,593 crore smart meter order, reducing debt, and improving thermal plant efficiency. Asset monetization strengthened liquidity and drove a strong financial turnaround, pushing Q3FY25 operating revenue up 46.1% YoY.

PC Jeweller, a Gems & Jewelry company, rose 150%, driven by a Rs 3,760 crore debt settlement and Rs 646 crore fundraise, strengthening its balance sheet. The company turned profitable in FY25, with net profit surging 174.7% YoY and revenue soaring 1471.8% in Q3FY25.

Expansion and investments lift industrial, healthcare, and consumer stocks

Consumer discretionary spending is increasing, particularly among high-income households, despite inflation and higher interest rates. In response, industries are expanding their production capabilities. This shift has resulted in improved financial performance, positively impacting investors in these companies.

JSW Holdings, the holding company of the JSW Group, saw its share gain 217%, rising to Rs 22,985 in FY25. This growth was driven by investments in EV ventures, a $1.5 billion battery plant, non-ferrous metals, steel, and green energy. Strong Q2 and Q3FY25 performance contributed to the share price growth.

Transformers & Rectifiers, a heavy electrical equipment company, saw its shares rise 184% in FY25. This growth was supported by the energy expansion and a 145% YoY rise in work orders to Rs 3,686 crore by Q3FY25.

Wockhardt, a pharmaceutical firm, soared 154% to an eight-year high after reporting positive clinical results for its cancer drug Zaynich in the US and planning an India launch at an 85-90% discount. The company also reduced pledged shares from 69% to 37% and returned to a Rs 14 crore profit in Q3FY25.

Higher customer engagement boosts retail and telecom stocks

Indian companies have been using discounts and promotions to expand their customer base. A growing focus on digital platforms and personalized services is boosting stock performance for some players in retail and telecom.

V2 Retail Ltd, specializing in fashion retail, saw its shares surge by 300% in FY25. This was backed by a 58% rise in operating revenue, Rs 590.9 crore in Q3FY25, and a 117.2% YoY profit rise to Rs 51 crore. Sales per square foot improved to Rs 1,219 from Rs 1,085, reflecting better space utilization.

Bharti Hexacom, a telecom service company, rose 159.3%. The stock’s initial rise was driven by 'Buy' ratings from brokerage firms. Growth was supported by a higher mobile ARPU, which increased to Rs 241 in Q3FY25 from Rs 200 due to tariff hikes. Net profit grew 23% to Rs 261 crore, while operating revenue rose 25%. Mobile service revenue increased to 25.5%, supported by network expansion.

The Baseline

02 Apr 2025

Former multibaggers: The top ten disappointments of FY25

By Swapnil Karkare

Ever jumped on a trend that didn’t last? It could be a fitness craze (the "five minute workout"), a fashion fad (low-rise jeans - thank god that's over), or even an app (is anyone still using Threads?).

Stocks work the same way. Some rally on hype, only to crash when reality kicks in. A winner today can easily become a loser tomorrow.

As we say goodbye to FY25, we look back at stocks that were multibaggers in FY24 but fell on their faces in FY25.

We used this screener, along with the screener rewind feature, to shortlist Nifty500 stocks that outperformed in FY24 but saw the highest declines (over 25%) in FY25. We focused on the top 10 by market capitalisation.

Here are the ten stocks that went from market darlings to big disappointments.

Let's take a closer look.

Tata Motors (Rose 147% in FY24, fell 32% in FY25)

For several quarters, Tata Motors rode a wave of positive media coverage, after launching its Nexon EV in 2020. In FY24 it achieved its highest-ever revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow. Operational efficiency was up, it was seeing strong demand for JLR and great India sales. It also reduced its net debt from Rs. 43,700 crore to Rs. 16,000 crore.

But the management predicted weakness in H1 FY25 due to dying pent-up demand, rising inventory, elections and the heatwave. Then came Emkay’s downgrade last year. Indian demand slowed, JLR revenue was flat in Europe and China as customers turned to Chinese cars.

Rising competition in India didn't help. Tata Motors saw a marginal revenue increase of just 1.6% YoY in 9MFY25. Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on automobiles has also put pressure on the stock.

CLSA is optimistic due to a potential JLR recovery, EV plans, attractive valuations, and a cyclical rebound in the CV segment. But competition looms from every side, and it's a rocky road.

Indian Overseas Bank (Rose by 184% in FY24, fell by 35% in FY25)

Between July and September 2023, Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) nearly doubled its stock price, marking its best quarter since 2001.

But in September 2024, Goldman Sachs downgraded bigwig PSU bank SBI, citing slower loan growth and rising credit costs, especially in MSME, agricultural, and unsecured portfolios. This sparked negative sentiment across PSU banks. And a broader market correction hit IOB hard.

Despite ongoing improvements in asset quality and margins, IOB’s high valuation, trading at a 2.7x price-to-book (PB) ratio, second only to HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank at 2.9x, has deterred investors.

New India Assurance (Rose by 139% in FY24, fell by 32% in FY25)

According to HDFC Securities, RBI’s decision to raise risk weights for unsecured lending in 2023, led to a shift in investor interest from banks to insurance companies. Cheaper PSU insurers, some trading below their issue price, became more attractive.

New India Assurance is a market leader in general insurance, with around 45% of premiums coming from the health & personal accident sub-segment.

However, several catastrophic claims in FY24, rising competition from new-age players, and a muted H1FY25 have put the brakes on the company’s growth. Weak Q1FY25 results led FIIs and mutual funds to dump 13 PSU stocks, including New India Assurance.

Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals (Rose by 331% in FY24, fell by 38% in FY25)

Gross refining margins (GRMs) – the difference between the purchase and selling price of petroleum products - is a key growth driver for this oil & gas company. Higher margins mean better profitability for MRPL. Its turnaround between Q2FY23 and Q2FY24 saw MRPL's GRM jump from $-4.5 to $17.1 per barrel, as improved debt-to-equity ratio drove share price gains.

But narrowing discounts on Russian oil and falling petro-product prices as China demand weakened, have caused GRM estimates to fall. That led to a ‘Sell’ call from Motilal Oswal in January last year.

Then, in Q1FY25, MRPL's net profit declined by 93% YoY despite a 10% YoY increase in revenue. Since then, the stock has not recovered.

Ircon International (Rose by 314% in FY24, fell by 29% in FY25)

Government capex has turned railway stocks into multibaggers in recent years. Ircon’s stock had a good run for a few years thanks to strong fundamentals: Between FY18 and FY24, investors noticed as its revenue tripled from around Rs. 4,200 crore to over Rs. 12,800 crore.

The railway construction company was also diversifying into highway contracts and renewable energy, with highways accounting for 16% of operating income in FY24, up from 7% in FY22.

However, stock prices have declined recently due to surprisingly poor results. Domestic revenue fell 16% YoY while order books shrunk by 22% in Q4FY25 due to fewer orders, smaller project sizes, and intense competitive bidding.

According to Prashanth Tapse of Mehta Equities, weak earnings and steep valuations have triggered a sector-wide sell-off. Ircon director Ragini Advani said, “This is a cyclical area where we will need to survive. But growth may not be possible in this time.”

Cyient (Rose by 101% in FY24, fell by 37% in FY25)

Cyient’s share price rise in FY24 was driven by the AI boom, the resilience of Engineering Research and Development (ER&D) companies against macro challenges, a strong revival in the aerospace sector, and cheaper valuations relative to its peers.

Axis Securities recognised Cyient as a strong long-term ER&D player but downgraded it to ‘hold’ after Q1FY25 results, citing Digital, Engineering & Technology (DET) revenue decline, which makes up over two-thirds of its revenue. Motilal Oswal downgraded it to ‘Sell’ after Q3FY25 results, anticipating a weak Q4 and slower FY26 revenue growth.

Swan Energy (Rose by 220% in FY24, fell by 36% in FY25)

Swan Energy operates across sectors like Oil & Gas, Defense, Petrochemicals, Real Estate and Textiles. It acquired Veritas India, transforming it from a petrochemical trading company into a PVC and LPG processing company, and Reliance Naval & Engineering, boosting its defence and shipbuilding vertical.

Between FY22 and FY24, Swan's operating revenue surged 10x, turning losses of Rs. 158 crore into a Rs. 609 crore profit. Its stock price rose from Rs. 192 in April 2022 to Rs. 670 in March 2024, a 3.5x increase. In November 2023, Ventura predicted further growth due to Reliance Naval’s turnaround, Veritas’ transformation, and steady real estate rental income.

But that prediction didn't pan out. Results weakened over the next quarters. The company’s other income rose from Rs. 31 crore in Q2FY25 to Rs. 1,868 crore in Q3FY25, almost at the same level as its operating income due to the divestment of its LNG Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU). Its operating expenses have spiked almost 3X over the last two quarters. Rising operational expenses and inefficiencies have dragged down the stock in the last few months.

Jyothy Labs (Rose by 138% in FY24, fell by 25% in FY25)

This FMCG company has evolved from a single-brand, ‘Ujala’, to fabric care, dishwash, household insecticide, and personal care categories with brands like Henko, Pril and Exo. Its stock price zoomed 20% on 25th July 2023, the day it announced its Q1FY24 results. In that quarter, its sales grew by 15% YoY while its profits doubled.

The company was confident about its growth prospects in FY24 due to lower inflation and improving demand. These results especially surprised the market because overall FMCG sales for the quarter fell by 4-5% YoY, according to retail intelligence firm, Bizom.

Jyothy management changed its tune in the recent quarter, talking about subdued demand because of inflationary pressures and urban slowdown. It is also worried about margins, which fell from 19% in Q2FY25 to 16% in Q3FY25. For the past few quarters, its net profit growth has been slowing down. In the previous quarter, its operating profit contracted by 2% YoY and net profit by 4% YoY. Most segments have recorded declining operating margins.

Birlasoft (Rose by 195% in FY24, fell by 48% in FY25)

Leadership changes under Birlasoft CEO Angan Guha were aimed at bringing about stability and revenue growth. The company has long struggled with a low deal win-to-revenue conversion, and low annuity revenue.

But in August 2023, Nomura highlighted the company’s operational streamlining efforts and projected a 30% upside in stock price. The stock doubled in just six months.

In February 2024, however, the CEO expressed concerns about a weakening demand environment. Following this, the company reported a 2.7% QoQ revenue decline in constant currency terms in Q1FY25 as customers tightened their discretionary spending.

Its Q3FY25 results further disappointed investors with low growth and deal wins. “Revenue is likely to decline further in Q4 due to furlough extensions and client ramp-down. The weak exit rate, along with smaller sized deals, paints a dismal picture for FY26 as well," said Nuvama Institutional Equities.

Jammu & Kashmir Bank (Rose by 194% in FY24, fell by 31% in FY25)

The bank's share price witnessed a remarkable rise from around Rs. 36 in December 2021 to over Rs. 140 in March 2024, driven by a significant turnaround under the leadership of MD and CEO Baldev Prakash. Key factors included improvement in the state of affairs and economy of Jammu & Kashmir along with asset quality, with gross non-performing assets (GNPA) declining from 9.7% in FY21 to 4.1% in December 2024.

However, the stock has faced pressures due to muted growth in 9MFY25, impacted by elections and severe winter conditions. Advances growth has been sluggish during Q3FY25, with net advances growing only 7% YoY, and GNPA reaching 4.08% from 3.95% in Q2. Slower recoveries due to strain on borrowers' repayment capacities have further weighed on investor sentiment. Despite these challenges, the bank expects a substantial improvement in Q4.

You can find the related screener here.

The Baseline

02 Apr 2025

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 02, 2025

By Divyansh Pokharna

1. Affle (India):

Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this internet software firm with a target price of Rs 1,880, indicating an upside of 18.5%. Affle is a digital advertising company that helps brands reach customers via mobile marketing. Analysts note that while the company has no immediate challenges, it’s cautious about possible US tariff hikes that could affect some clients. The company is streamlining its US operations by merging its business units into one entity, to mitigate currency fluctuations and potential tariff risks.

In 9MFY25, the company’s revenue grew 24% YoY, while net profit rose 32%, driven by a 31.9% rise in revenue from converted users. Affle’s management expects over 20% net profit growth in FY25. They also project EBITDA margins to improve to around 23% in the medium term, up from 19.5% in FY24.

Analysts expect Affle to deliver steady and scalable results through client conversions, driving growth over the medium to long term. They project a revenue CAGR of 23.2% over FY25-27.

2. Titagarh Rail Systems:

Geojit BNP Paribas initiates coverage on this commercial vehicles manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,050. This indicates a potential upside of 29.6%. The company’s 9MFY25 revenue rose 2% YoY to Rs 2,862 crore. Net profit increased by 6% to Rs 225 crore, helped by stable demand and cost control.

Analyst Sheen highlights that Titagarh Rail has strong revenue visibility, supported by an order book of Rs 25,333 crore. She notes that the company’s newly introduced verticals, signaling and safety systems, along with shipbuilding & maritime systems, are expected to contribute to revenue from FY26. This growth will be driven by increasing demand for advanced rail systems and maritime solutions.

Sheen notes that the medium-term growth prospects for Titagarh Rail are positive, supported by strong demand for passenger wagons, metro projects, and Vande Bharat production. This is backed by significant order inflows and expanding manufacturing capabilities.

3. Suven Pharmaceuticals:

ICICI Securities upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 1,400. This indicates an upside of 27.9%. In February 2024, PE firm Advent acquired a controlling stake in Suven and merged its entity, Cohance, with the company. Cohance makes cancer medicines and also produces a key ingredient used in cancer treatments. Analysts Abdulkader Puranwala and Nisha Shetty expect that the merger with Cohance will increase Suven’s revenue by 138% and its net profit by 108% in FY25.

In December 2024, Suven acquired a 56% stake in NJ Bio for $100 million. Cohance’s acquisition, along with NJ Bio’s capabilities, gives Suven a market opportunity in the antibody drug conjugates (ADC) sector, which has increased from $200 million to $1.4 billion. The company’s acquisition of Sapala Organics also marks its entry into the genetic medicines market.

Puranwala and Shetty expect the revenue share of the acquired entities to rise to 17% (currently at 10% of FY24 revenue) as the business gains momentum in the coming years. The company’s management aims for $1 billion in revenue by FY30, with plans to scale up to $2 billion by FY35.

4. Equitas Small Finance Bank:

BOB Capital Markets initiates coverage on this bank with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 73. This indicates an upside of 28.9%. Equitas Small Finance Bank’s loan book grew at a 22.5% CAGR between FY20-24. Analysts Niraj Jalan and Vijiya Rao note that the bank has shifted focus towards secured portfolios, with secured loans now making up 85.6% of the total (as of December 2024), up from 76.5% in March 2020.

Equitas plans to reduce its microfinance (MFI) portfolio share to single digits, from 14.4% in December 2024. Jalan and Rao project advances to grow at 21% CAGR from FY25-27, mainly driven by the secured loan portfolio.

In 9MFY25, the bank set aside Rs 340 crore in additional provisions, due to stress in its MFI portfolio and to keep its NNPA below 1%, which impacted profitability. Over the past year, the bank’s stock price has fallen by 38.6%.

5. Brigade Enterprises:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this Bengaluru-based realty company with a target price of Rs 1,415, indicating a potential upside of 44.5%. The company has achieved a 36% CAGR in presales from FY20 to FY24.

Brigade’s management aims to develop 15 million square feet (msf) of projects by FY27. Analysts Abhishek Lodhiya and Yohan Batliwala expect that new launches will enhance the company’s pipeline. They project a 24% CAGR in presales growth by FY27, along with a 10% CAGR in the realization of Rs 10,700 per square foot.

In 9MFY25, Brigade Enterprises launched new projects in Bengaluru and Chennai, along with new phases of existing launches, covering 7.5 msf. The company has added 8 msf of land since January 2025 to its portfolio in YTD FY25 and plans to expand in Kerala and enter the Mysuru market by FY26.

Analysts expect the Bengaluru region to contribute 50-80% of Brigade's presales by FY27, and anticipate that the listing of Brigade Hospitality Portfolio (Brigade Hotel Ventures) will create long-term growth opportunities for the company.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

28 Mar 2025

Five Interesting Stocks Today - March 28, 2025

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Hindustan Aeronautics:

This defence company surged 9.4% over the past week as it received the first of 99 engines for the Tejas Mk 1A Fighter Jet after a two-year delay. Analysts view this as a crucial step in allaying execution risks.

Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh emphasizes the urgency of addressing the jet shortage, stating that the Indian Air Force must add up to 40 jets annually. He adds that HAL has committed to produce 24 Tejas jets annually starting next year. Analysts note that production will scale up gradually and reach full capacity by 2030.

With HAL expecting twelve jet engines this year, analysts believe they can deliver ten jets in 2026. Forecaster expects revenue growth to be flat this fiscal year due to supply bottlenecks leading to production delays. However, it expects revenue growth of over 18% in FY26. HAL shows up in a screener of stocks where FIIs/FPIs have increased their shareholding over the past quarter.

HAL currently holds an order book of Rs 1.2 lakh crore. The company is also pursuing contracts for another 97 Tejas jets and 156 light combat helicopters (Prachanda). These contracts are expected to be finalised in the next six months. Thanks to this, management projects an order inflow of Rs 1 lakh crore in FY26, bringing the total order book to Rs 2.2 lakh crore, targeted for execution by 2030.

ICICI Securities upgrades HAL to ‘Buy’ and calls the delivery of the first F-404 jet engine “a monumental milestone.” The brokerage forecasts revenue growth of around 25% over FY26-27, and an EPS CAGR of 39% during the same period. With a target price of Rs 5,000, HAL has a potential upside of around 20%.

2. Bharat Forge:

This forging company has gained 12.6% over the past month, supported by multiple positive developments. On March 27, the company secured an order of over Rs 4,000 crore from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to supply advanced towed artillery gun systems (ATAGS). Earlier this month, Bharat Forge’s subsidiary, Kalyani Powertrain, partnered with Taiwan’s Compal Electronics to manufacture servers in India.

Analysts believe the possibility of higher tariffs from the US remains a key risk for the company’s core business growth in the medium term. Bharat Forge is focusing on expanding its non-auto businesses, such as aerospace, defence, and other industrial sectors. Recently, it also entered an agreement with a European company to set up a new aerospace manufacturing facility. However, analysts note that the uneven pace of order execution in these segments could affect its overall growth.

During Q3FY25, the company’s revenue fell by 10.1% YoY, mainly due to weak performance in its European business and a slowdown in the defence segment. The forgings segment, which contributes 85% to the company’s total revenue, reported an 8.9% decline. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue will remain flat in FY25 and grow by 9.7% in FY26 as investments materialise.

Amit Kalyani, Joint Managing Director and Vice Chairman, said, “For FY26, we expect a capital expenditure of around Rs 300 crore. The capex for our US operations is complete. Going forward, investments will only be in Indian subsidiaries and will not exceed Rs 250 crore.” He also said the company aims to improve its profit margins by 250-300 bps over the next 2-3 years through a better product mix and operating leverage.

Geojit BNP Paribas has downgraded the stock to a ‘Hold’ rating with a target price of 1,302. The brokerage expects steady positive momentum in domestic defence and auto businesses, with overseas operations supporting long-term growth. It also expects the defence order book to grow further, which could help improve profitability.

3. Kalpataru Projects International:

This construction & engineering company has risen by 3.8% over the past week after it received new orders worth Rs 2,366 crore in the transmission & distribution (T&D), and buildings & factories (B&F) businesses in India and overseas on March 25. Kalpataru Projects (KPIL) features in a screener of companies where mutual funds increased shareholding in the past month.

KPIL handles the end-to-end execution of projects in power transmission, water supply, railways, oil & gas, urban mobility, highways, and airports. During March, the company also secured orders worth Rs 2,306 crore across its businesses for projects in India and abroad.

During Q3FY25, KPIL reported a 0.8% YoY increase in net profit at Rs 142 crore. Revenue grew 17.1%, reaching Rs 5,732.5 crore. EBITDA margin stood at 8.4% for the quarter. Sluggish execution in the water business due to delayed collections weighed on overall growth. However, with Rs 1,000 crore infused in 9MFY25 and the Union Budget’s push for 100% tap water coverage, faster collections and execution should boost momentum.

The company’s order book stood at Rs 61,429 crore in Q3, with 38% coming from T&D, 22% from B&F, and 16% from water segments. With these new orders, the company’s order inflow stands at Rs 24,850 crore YTD in FY25, providing strong visibility for improved execution and growth. Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects KPIL’s revenue to grow around 27% YoY in Q4FY25.

Manish Mohnot, MD & CEO, said, “Our T&D order book continues to grow, driven by widening power demand-supply gap, grid upgrades, renewable push, and a focus on improvement of T&D infrastructure. This presents a strong growth opportunity for KPIL”.

Axis Securties maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Kalpataru, and sets a target price of Rs 1,350. The brokerage believes the company is poised to benefit from a robust order book, favourable sectoral tailwinds, improved performance of international subsidiaries, and supportive government initiatives.

4. Mankind Pharma:

This pharmaceutical company rose by over 8% in the past week. On March 12th, the company launched generic versions of Empagliflozin, a diabetes drug in India. This launch was followed by the expiration of the patent for Empagliflozin in India, which led to an opening for domestic pharma companies to launch generic versions of the drug. The estimated market size for Empagliflozin and its combination therapies in India is around Rs 640 crore. Pharmarack data shows the drug's sales volume has grown at a 1% CAGR over the past five years, with a 3% value growth.

Regarding this launch, the company's Vice Chairman & MD, Rajeev Juneja, said, "By assigning two dedicated teams to promote these offerings under separate brands, we aim to enhance market penetration and expand our reach in this competitive segment."

The company announced its Q3FY25 results on January 23. Its net profit had declined by 16.2% YoY to Rs 380.2 crore due to a rise in employee expenses. However, its revenue increased by 23.5% due to strong growth across the domestic, consumer healthcare and export businesses. The company’s revenue beat forecaster estimates by 1% supported by the Bharat Serums and Vaccines (BSV) acquisition in October 2024. It appears on the screener for stocks with annual profit growth higher than sector profit growth.

Ashutosh Dhawan, Chief Financial Officer of Mankind Pharma, said, “Our capex spend for 9MFY25 was Rs 344 crore, accounting for 3.7% of total revenue, in line with our guidance of 4% to 5%. To maintain financial discipline and a healthy leverage ratio, we repaid Rs 3,000 crore of debt in Q3 using proceeds from the QIP. As of the quarter-end, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA stands at 2.2x, and we aim to reduce it to 2x by year-end.”

Geojit BNP Paribas recommended an ‘Accumulate’ rating on Mankind Pharma, anticipating positive fiscal outcomes from the restructuring of BSV's pharmaceutical segment. This acquisition is a major step for the company, positioning it as a potential leader in India’s women’s health and fertility drug market, while also granting access to high-entry barrier products in critical care. The brokerage notes that this deal has increased the company’s overall market share to 4.8%, from 4.4% before the acquisition.

5. Hero MotoCorp:

This two-wheeler manufacturer surged 3.5% over the past week following its March 20 announcement of an investment in the electric three-wheeler segment. The company is acquiring a 32.5% stake in Euler Motors for Rs 525 crore to diversify its portfolio.

Euler Motors builds and sells electric three-wheelers, and recently introduced its first electric commercial four-wheeler. This investment strengthens Hero MotoCorp’s position in the electric three-wheeler segment, where electric vehicles are projected to constitute 35% of total vehicle sales by 2030, up from 7.4% as of 2024.

In Q3, the company’s revenue grew 5.3% YoY to Rs 10,566.3 crore, while net profit rose 1.3% YoY to Rs 1,107.6 crore, beating Forecaster estimates. The growth was driven by an 11.4% rise in retail sales, a 4.7% YoY increase in the average selling price to Rs 69,756 per vehicle, and an increase in revenue from parts, accessories, and merchandise.

Vivek Anand, CFO of the company, said, “For FY25, the guidance we have given is for double-digit revenue growth. Looking at our first nine months performance and at this quarter (fourth), we believe that this (a double-digit revenue growth) will repeat next year also.” The growth is expected to be driven by recovery in rural and urban markets, its 125cc motorcycle lineup expansion, and new product launches. The company’s 125cc segment’s market share has increased from 14% to over 21% as of Q3.

Hero MotoCorp is expanding its premium portfolio with motorcycles like the Xtreme 250R and Xpulse 210 and premium scooters like the Xoom 125 and Xoom 160. The company’s EBITDA per vehicle has surpassed Rs 10,000 following the launch of Hero Premia stores, which focus on higher-value products. Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects the company's revenue to grow 3.3% YoY and its net profit to increase by 20.1% in Q4FY25.

Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and raises target prices to Rs 5,285, citing the company’s focus on core business growth, premium segment expansion, EV investments, and revenue diversification.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

27 Mar 2025

Chart of the Week: Most new-age IT IPOs drop in valuations post listing

By Omkar Chitnis

In 2024, India became the world’s second-largest equity fundraising market after the US, driven by a surge in IPOs. Many new-age companies are listed at high valuations, attracting significant investments from both domestic and foreign investors. Experts predict that 2025 could be a record-breaking year, with IPOs expected to raise over $20 billion.

India's IPO market grew significantly in 2024, raising a record Rs 1.6 lakh crore. Many companies capitalized on investor enthusiasm and positive market sentiment, leading to inflated valuations.

Aggressive marketing by teams pre-IPO, and high brand recognition for some companies - despite being loss-making – garnered high participation even with steep valuations. These companies saw their valuations fell post-listing as the rules of the public market kicked in: regular financial and sales disclosures, closer business scrutiny, and questions from analysts.

These companies discover that the valuation rules of venture capital and public markets are very different. Steptrade Share Service founder Kresha Gupta states, “Many new-age unicorns are 'loss-making' because their valuations are largely driven by market share and consumer dominance. However, retail investors start evaluating the company on the basis of fundamentals like revenue, profit margins, and debt when they go public.”

While some IPOs, like Zomato and PB Fintech, have successfully crossed the bridge into public markets, others such as Swiggy and Ola Electric, have seen significant declines in market value. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyze the valuations of top new-age IT companies before and after their IPOs and explore the factors influencing their current market performance.

Ola and Paytm face valuation decline amid regulatory hurdles

Ola Electric is facing mounting challenges with every news cycle. CEO Bhavish Aggarwal once stated, "Tesla is for the West, Ola for the rest." That quote has not aged well. Once valued at Rs 46,290 crore during its pre-IPO phase, Ola Electric has seen a significant valuation decline since its stock market debut. Since its IPO in August 2024, the company’s stock has fallen by 27.2%.

Ola Electric is grappling with operational inefficiencies, customer-related concerns and a PR debacle. Customer complaints on Ola scooters have ballooned and repair centers have been overwhelmed.

Sales have declined for three consecutive quarters, reducing its market share from 50% in May 2024 to 18% in January 2025. In February 2025, government data showed a market share of 11.4%, while Ola reported 28%, reflecting discrepancies due to sales delays and unregistered scooters, further impacting stock prices.

Falling revenue, delays in product launches and the exit of key executives contributed to the decline in performance, while legal and regulatory challenges have grown.

Paytm, once valued at Rs 1.4 lakh crore during its pre-IPO phase, has seen a sharp decline in valuation since its market debut in November 2021. Initially listed at Rs 1,950 per share, its stock dropped 27.7% on the first day, hitting the lower circuit. Since then, Paytm’s market capitalization has shrunk by nearly two-thirds, falling to Rs 47,000 crore.

The real plunge occurred after the lock-in period ended, with major investors like SoftBank, Alibaba, and Berkshire Hathaway exiting.

In January 2024, the RBI ordered Paytm Payments Bank to cease operations due to regulatory violations, severely impacting its digital payments business. Monthly active users fell from 168 million to 68 million by September 2024. Additionally, rising competition from UPI and private players reduced its market share from 40% in 2018 to 5.5% in 2024, raising concerns about its long-term sustainability.

Swiggy and Nykaa see declining valuations due to margin pressures

Swiggy debuted on the Indian stock market in November 2024 with a pre-IPO valuation of $11.3 billion (~ Rs 96,008 crore), lower than its initial target of $15 billion (~ Rs 1.3 lakh crore). Since then, its stock has declined by 43.2%, erasing nearly Rs 60,000 crore in market capitalization, bringing its current valuation to Rs 78,889 crore.

Swiggy faces rising cash burn, high competition in the quick commerce sector, and a slowdown in its core food delivery business. Operational expenses have surged due to dark store expansion and intense competition - both food delivery and quick commerce being cut-throat markets right now – contributing to increasing net losses.

Similarly, Nykaa, which was valued at Rs 53,204 crore during its pre-IPO stage, saw its market cap rise to Rs 99,481 crore on listing day. However, by March 2025, its valuation dropped to Rs 49,506.4 crore, with the stock falling 57%. Increased competition from Myntra, Ajio, and traditional retailers and higher marketing expenses have negatively impacted its performance.

Financially, Nykaa is struggling with slim margins and inconsistent profitability. To stay competitive, Nykaa is investing heavily in expanding its warehouse network. In the most recent quarter, the company allocated 13% of its capex to expanding its network in the first half of FY26. However, rising costs and intense competition have led to a significant drop in Nykaa's valuation and stock price.

Zomato and Policy Bazaar’s valuations grow, helped by expansion and strong financials

Zomato debuted in 2021 with a Rs 1.1 lakh crore valuation, more than double its pre-IPO valuation of Rs 47,147 crore. Since then, its market capitalization has surged to Rs 2.2 lakh crore. This growth was driven by business expansion, rising demand, and strong investor confidence. Its inclusion in the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 attracted passive investments, which helped push the company’s valuation higher.

Between 2021 and 2025, Zomato’s market share in food delivery grew from 47% to 58%. The acquisition of Blinkit strengthened its presence in quick commerce, and by March 2024, Blinkit turned adjusted EBITDA positive. Expanding dark stores and rising order volumes improved profitability, leading to increased investor interest. Multiple brokerages remained bullish, raising margin and profitability estimates. These factors helped Zomato’s stock deliver a 183% return since its listing.

PB Fintech, the parent company of Policybazaar and Paisabazaar, was valued at Rs 45,187 crore before its IPO. At the time of its listing in November 2021, the company’s valuation was Rs 42,763 crore. Since then, its valuation has increased by nearly 25%, reaching Rs 77,357 crore. The company expanded into personal finance and lending services through Paisabazaar, diversifying its revenue streams.

In FY24, PB Fintech reported a 37% year-on-year increase in insurance premiums, along with a significant rise in new protection premiums, including health and term insurance. Additionally, PB Fintech improved its operating profit margin from -23% in FY23 to -5% in FY24 by implementing cost-reduction measures and focusing on operational efficiency.

The rise in annual renewal income, achieving an 85% margin, has further boosted profitability. To cut risks in unsecured lending, PB Fintech is prioritizing secured loan products like home loans. The company aims to achieve Rs 1,000 crore in net profit by FY27 and is considering a $100 million investment in new ventures

The Baseline

27 Mar 2025

India's EV race is heating up | Screener: Auto stocks with rising momentum and strong Forecaster numbers

By Tejas MD

This month has given investors, who were upset about all the red in their portfolios, some relief. The Nifty 50 snapped its longest losing streak since 1996. The benchmark index is up 6.9% in March and has clawed back all its 2025 losses. The big question is whether we are witnessing the start of a real market recovery or just a temporary bounce.

Siddhartha Khemka, Research Head at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, says that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are again shaping market sentiment. "What is driving the domestic market is the return of FII inflows, after a prolonged selling period. Positive global cues after the US President hinted about flexibility in reciprocal tariffs have also helped," he noted.

Just as FIIs are changing the narrative in the stock market, another industry is seeing a significant transformation—the electric vehicle market. With a record number of EVs set to launch in 2025 and competition heating up, how will carmakers steer through?

In this week’s Analyticks,

The EV battle heats up: Carmakers vie with new models at affordable price points
Screener: Auto stocks with rising momentum, and Forecaster predicting revenue and EPS growth in Q4FY25

Is the Indian EV industry ready for supercharged growth?

The Indian government had set a goal of having 30% of all passenger vehicles be electric by 2030. However, as of 2024, electric vehicles (EVs) make up only 2.4% of total sales. This has increased by just 0.2% every year over the past three years. Honestly, you are more likely to catch birds while fishing than hit 30% by 2030.

Looking at more realistic numbers instead, analysts project that the EV market share will double from 2% to 4% in 2025. 2025 could finally be the year of the EV. Car manufacturers are launching new models, prices are becoming more competitive, and charging stations are expanding rapidly, all of which may change the mind of an Indian consumer who has so far, stuck with the gas guzzlers.

If you plan is to buy an EV this year, you may feel like a kid in a candy store. Of the 28 new car models set to launch in 2025, 18 are EVs. This is a major jump from the four to five EV models launched annually in the past two years. It hints at a tipping point.

Car makers target the hot-selling Rs 10-30 lakh EV segment

Better late than never is Maruti Suzuki's approach, which will finally enter the EV market this year with the e-Vitara. Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, and Mahindra are also gearing up, while foreign automakers are introducing new models across different price segments.

India isn’t immune to the global rise of Chinese EVs. Two Chinese brands, BYD and MG Motors, already sell EVs in India. And MG Motors, which manufactures through a local partnership with the JSW Group, is shaking up the market.

Tata Motors’ EV dominance is fading

Tata Motors had a head start in India's EV market. In October 2021, it had announced a $2 billion investment in its EV business, and its stock surged 21% in a single day. Fast-forward to 2025, and the picture looks very different. Its EV sales have been struggling, with nine out of the last eleven months showing declines compared to the previous year. In February 2025, Tata’s EV sales fell 23% YoY, and its stock is down 27% over the year.

Tata’s EV market share has plunged from 73% in 2023 to 42% in February 2025. The biggest threat? MG Motors.

MG Motors' market share is rising fast

MG has disrupted the market with its Windsor EV, which introduced a Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) model, where you pay for battery usage at Rs 3.5 per km. This more affordable approach has struck a chord with buyers, pushing MG’s market share from 11% in 2023 to 36.5% by early 2025.

SUVs now make up 56% of the market, and while Tata Motors offers EVs in this segment, competitors like Mahindra are competing more effectively in power and design (user discussions on the Tata Nexon online have been quite unflattering).

Upcoming EV launches from Maruti and Mahindra’s aggressive push in the same price range could also put more pressure on Tata Motors' market share.

No EV story is complete of course, without mentioning the heavyweights – BYD and Tesla. BYD imports all its cars from China, and is limited to 2,500 units per model annually unless it commits to local manufacturing. Meanwhile, Tesla is hiring in Mumbai, and hinting at an entry, though high import duties and pricing challenges may limit its impact.

Charging infrastructure in India is the biggest hurdle for buying EVs

For many potential EV buyers, charging infrastructure remains the biggest concern. “Range anxiety” is holding back mass adoption in India.

India currently has just one public charger for every 135 EVs—far below the global average of one charger per six to twenty EVs. This is despite the country doubling its charging stations in FY24.

Over the past five years, more than $450 million has been invested in this sector, with companies like Charge Zone, Tata Power and Statiq leading the charge.

Automakers are also stepping in. Maruti plans to install fast-charging stations at its dealerships every five to ten kilometres in the top 100 cities before launching its first EV.

Maruti also plans to establish over 1,500 EV-enabled service workshops in more than 1,000 cities. Partho Banerjee, senior executive officer of marketing and sales at Maruti Suzuki, said, “When we begin selling the e-Vitara, the ecosystem will be ready. Anyone driving our EV will have no concerns. Range anxiety is a genuine issue. If we resolve these challenges, EV penetration will grow significantly.” Banerjee expects EV sales to grow tenfold in the next six years.

A key player like Maruti prioritizing charging infrastructure helps all buyers, since there is inter-compatibility between charging stations. On February 13, Tata Motors also announced plans to double India's EV charging points by 2027. Fixing the charging infrastructure bottleneck could accelerate EV adoption nationwide.

Screener: Auto stocks with rising momentum, with Forecaster estimating revenue and EPS growth in Q4FY25

Forecaster estimates auto parts & 2/3-wheeler revenue to grow in Q4FY25

As we enter the last week of Q4FY25, we look at the auto stocks where Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates a YoY growth in revenue during the quarter. This screener shows automobiles & auto components stocks with increasing Trendlyne momentum score MoM, where Forecaster expects a YoY growth in revenue and EPS in Q4FY25.

Major stocks in the screener are UNO Minda, Schaeffler India, Eicher Motors, Amara Raja Energy, TVS Motor, Sansera Engineering, and ZF Commercial.

UNO Minda shows up in the screener after its Trendlyne momentum score jumped 18 points MoM to 47.8. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects this auto parts & equipment company’s revenue and EPS to grow by 19.2% YoY and 6.8% YoY in Q4FY25. Analysts at KR Choksey believe that despite a slowdown in commercial vehicle demand, its focus on innovation, capacity expansion, product diversification, and investments in emerging technologies positions it for long-term revenue growth.

Eicher Motors’ Trendlyne momentum score increased by 13.6 points MoM to 64.5. Forecaster expects this ?-wheeler stock’s revenue and EPS to grow by 16.3% YoY and 13.8% YoY, respectively, in Q4FY25. Axis Direct expects the company’s revenue to increase due to strong domestic demand, expansions in Bangladesh, Brazil & Thailand, and new product launches.

You can find some popular screeners here.

The Baseline

25 Mar 2025

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - March 25, 2025

By Divyansh Pokharna

1. Jindal Stainless:

ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this steel manufacturer with a target price of Rs 760. This indicates an upside of 29.2%. Analysts Amit Dixit, Mohit Lohia, and Pritish Urumkar believe the new US tariffs, which apply to all countries, create a level playing field for Jindal Stainless (JSL) to compete in the US market. Additionally, unlike carbon steel players facing a 25% safeguard duty, there is no change in the stainless steel quota for Europe. As a result, they expect the company to maintain its market share in Europe while seeing higher volumes in the US.

The company's 1.2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) greenfield stainless steel plant in Indonesia, developed with an investment of Rs 1,500 crore, is progressing as planned. JSL’s share in the project is Rs 715 crore, while Singapore’s New Yaking is the other partner. Upon completion, JSL’s total stainless steel capacity will expand from 3 MTPA to 4.2 MTPA.

Dixit, Lohia, and Urumkar believe the low capex required for the 1.2 MTPA project in Indonesia will help maintain JSL’s return on equity (RoE) at 16-18% in the near to medium term. They project the company’s revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 12.6% and 14.6%, respectively, over FY25-27.

2. Bajaj Holdings & Investment:

Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this holding company with a target price of Rs 14,346. This indicates an upside potential of 14.6%. Analysts highlight that Bajaj Holdings & Investment (BHIL) holds significant stakes in Bajaj Auto (34.21% stake) and Bajaj Finserv (39.03% stake).

Bajaj Finserv owns Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Allianz General Insurance, and Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance. Recently, Allianz SE has decided to divest its entire 26% stake in Bajaj Allianz Life and Bajaj Allianz General Insurance to Bajaj group companies.

Bajaj Holdings & Investment will acquire a 20% stake in both life insurance and general insurance arms for Rs 18,553 crore, while Bajaj Finserv and Jamnalal Sons will acquire the remaining stake. The deal is expected to close by early FY26. Following the acquisition, the company may explore listing its insurance businesses, potentially unlocking value in the future.

Analysts note that BHIL’s performance depends upon the performance of its key group companies, which ultimately drive its valuations. With most of the key associates performing well, they expect a healthy outlook for all businesses to drive earnings growth, resulting in a healthy dividend income for the holding company.

3. Varun Beverages:

KRChoksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this non-alcoholic beverages company, with a target price of Rs 657, indicating an upside potential of 27%. Analyst Dipak Saha highlights the company's strong CY24 performance was driven by 23.2% volume growth, a better product mix, and strategic acquisitions. Revenue rose 24.7% YoY to Rs 20,008 crore, while net profit increased 25.3% to Rs 2,634 crore.

The company's sales mix was dominated by Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSD), which contributed 74.2% to total sales, followed by packaged water and Juice-Based Drinks (JBD), which accounted for 19.6% and 6.2%, respectively. The company's net capex stood at Rs 4,500 crore, primarily for new plant setups in India and Africa.

Varun Beverages has now become net debt-free after repaying loans using QIP proceeds. Saha mentions that the company has expanded its partnership with PepsiCo, strengthening its snack segment with exclusive Cheetos chips manufacturing and distribution rights in Morocco, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. Additionally, it has increased its footprint in South Africa, Tanzania, and Ghana, further solidifying its presence in the African market.

4. Aurobindo Pharma:

BOB Capital Markets reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 1,451. This indicates a potential upside of 21.4%. Aurobindo’s Eugia Unit 3 operated at over 70% peak capacity in FY24 but dropped to 50% in Q3FY25, leading to US injectable sales hitting an all-time low of $77 million. Analyst Foram Parekh expects capacity utilization to improve to ~65% in Q4 and exceed 70% in FY26, driving US injectable sales recovery to $100-125 million over the next two to three quarters.

The company's Pen-G plant in Andhra Pradesh is currently facing a loss of Rs 60 crore due to a slow ramp-up, and a temporary maintenance shutdown. Its production yield dropped to 170 tonnes per month. Parekh expects this to increase to 350 tonnes per month by the end of March 2025 and 650 tonnes per month in FY26.

Parekh believes increasing market share in the US, higher utilisation at Eugia Unit 3, improved yield at the Pen-G plant, and a strong pipeline of biosimilar products will drive growth. He projects the EBITDA margin to rise from 20.1% in FY24 to 22.4% by FY27.

5. Voltas:

Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this air conditioner manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,710, indicating a potential upside of 20.3%. The company's management notes that the current demand for room air conditioners (RAC) remains strong. Voltas aims to focus on market share by cutting costs instead of raising prices for profitability.

Analysts Sanjeev Singh, Mudit Agarwal, and Abhishek Sheth note that Voltas lost some market share in January 2025. The company is working to regain its position and expects improvements as production at its Chennai plant scales up. The plant is currently operating at 40-45% capacity and is expected to reach full capacity by FY26.

Singh, Agarwal, and Sheth highlighted that from April 2024 to January 2025, the industry grew 30% YoY, while Voltas' RAC volumes increased by 35% YoY. They expect strong demand for room air conditioners during the summer season of CY25 to boost the company’s growth in Q4FY25. Over the past year, the company's share price has risen by 33.5%.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

24 Mar 2025

IPOs This Week: Grand Continent Hotels, Active Infra & Rapid Fleet, Plus Six New Public Issues

By Divyansh Pokharna

The Indian stock market recorded its best weekly gain in over four years, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex rising over 4% last week. The surge was driven by strong domestic investor buying and reduced selling by foreign institutions. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers for the first time in 13 weeks, purchasing equities worth Rs 5,819.1 crore over the week, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought Rs 4,337.9 crore worth of stocks.

FIIs were selling Indian equities earlier this month, but the pace slowed. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investment Services, said, “It can be argued that positive domestic fundamentals like pick up in growth, easing inflation, and a weaker dollar have contributed to the change in FII strategy.”

The mainboard IPO segment has seen no new launches for over a month, but the SME segment remains active. This week, six new SME IPOs are set to open, while three companies will make their market debut, following four listings last week.

Three SME IPOs are set for listing this week

Grand Continent Hotels, a hotels chain, will close its IPO on March 24 and list on the NSE SME platform on March 27. By day 2 of bidding, the IPO remained undersubscribed at 0.5X. In FY24, the company’s revenue grew 86% YoY, while net profit rose 3.9X.

Grand Continent and Active Infra draw HNI bids; Rapid Fleet lags behind

Active Infrastructures and Rapid Fleet Management will close their IPO bidding on March 25 and list on March 28. By the end of day 1, both remained undersubscribed at 0.2x and 0.1x, respectively.

Six SME IPOs to open for subscription this week

Desco Infratech is the first IPO to open this week, with the subscription period from March 24 to 26. The issue size is Rs 30.8 crore, with a price band of Rs 147-150 per share. The IPO is expected to list on the BSE SME platform on April 1.

Desco Infratech and Indentixweb’s net profit more than double in FY24

Other IPOs opening for subscription this week:

ATC Energies System (March 25-27) has an issue size of Rs 63.8 crore, with a price band of Rs 112-118 per share.
Shri Ahimsa Naturals (March 25-27) plans to raise Rs 72.8 crore, with a price band of Rs 113-119 per share.
Indentixweb (March 26-28) aims to raise Rs 16.6 crore via a fresh issue, with a price band of Rs 51-54 per share.
Retaggio Industries (March 27-April 1) has an issue size of Rs 15.5 crore, with a fixed price of Rs 25 per share.
Infonative Solutions (March 28-April 3) is set to raise Rs 24.7 crore, with a price band of Rs 75-79 per share.

Four new companies listed last week; all declined post-listing

PDP Shipping & Projects listed on March 18 at a 19.8% discount to its issue price of Rs 135 and is now trading 31.2% lower.

PDP Shipping and Paradeep Parivahan see weak debuts; others list flat

Paradeep Parivahan debuted on March 24 at a 20% discount. Its IPO was subscribed 1.6 times the total shares on offer. The stock fell further, trading at a 22.4% discount.

Super Iron Foundry and Divine Hira Jewellers listed at their issue prices but have since declined. Super Iron Foundry is now down 14.2%, while Divine Hira Jewellers is trading 5% lower.

What buzzed in the primary market last week?

Edtech company PhysicsWallah has confidentially filed draft papers to raise Rs 4,600 crore through an IPO. The offering includes a fresh issue of shares along with an offer-for-sale (OFS) by existing investors. The company is reportedly targeting a valuation of $2.8 billion.
SEBI has approved the IPOs of LG Electronics India and Innovision. LG Electronics' IPO is completely an offer-for-sale of 10.2 crore equity shares with no fresh issue. Innovision, which provides manpower services and toll plaza management, plans to raise Rs 255 crore through a fresh issue, along with an offer-for-sale of 17.7 lakh shares.
US e-commerce giant Amazon is reportedly considering spinning off its Indian unit and listing it in India. The company is in the early stages of discussions and has engaged with JP Morgan while initiating talks with investment banks in India.
Saatvik Green Energy, a solar photovoltaic module manufacturer, has refiled its draft papers for a Rs 1,150 crore IPO after SEBI returned its earlier documents in February. The offering consists of a fresh issue of shares worth Rs 850 crore and an offer-for-sale of Rs 300 crore by promoters.
SEBI has put the IPO approvals for Hero FinCorp on hold for nearly eight months and HDB Financial Services, an HDFC Bank subsidiary, for four months. The delay is due to concerns that their share sales might not comply with pre-IPO share sale rules.

The Baseline

21 Mar 2025

Five Interesting Stocks Today - March 21, 2025

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. BSE:

This exchange stock rose 22% over the past week after UBS initiated coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 5,350. The brokerage anticipates a share price upside of around 12%, believing the market has not fully priced in the shift in trading volumes from NSE.

BSE fueled this rise in trading volume by shifting Sensex’s expiry day from Friday to Tuesday. This change increased its market share from just above 16% in December last year to over 22% in February.

BSE nearly doubled its Q3 revenue and net profit compared to the same period last year. Transaction charges, which form the bulk of its revenue, jumped 157% YoY. Operating expenses rose 86% YoY. This was mainly because of higher contributions to the core settlement guarantee fund – the exchange increased its contribution to the guarantee fund after SEBI introduced a new methodology for computing the minimum corpus requirement.

Discussing growth in the equity segment, MD & CEO Sundararaman R said, “We are working with market participants (discount brokers) to ensure a level playing field so clients can choose the exchange based on the best price for execution.” He emphasised that once fully implemented, this change will give BSE a 50-50 chance of handling retail orders.

Forecaster projects the firm’s revenue to grow by around 50%, driven by market share gains. Net profit is expected to rise four times in Q4 compared to the same period last year. UBS analysts see the company’s mutual fund distribution business as a key growth driver and project a 37% CAGR in revenue over FY25-27.

2. KEC International:

This heavy electrical equipment manufacturer made headlines today after CBI arrested its Deputy General Manager Suman Singh and Power Grid General Manager Uday Kumar for corruption. Kumar was caught taking a Rs 2.5 lakh bribe, while Singh allegedly favoured certain contractors. The FIR names five individuals, including KEC Vice President Jabraj Singh and the company itself.

Despite this, the company has surged by 24.9% over the past week after it received new orders worth Rs 1,267 crore across its businesses on March 15.

KEC International’s transmission and distribution (T&D) business won 800 kV HVDC and 765 kV transmission line orders from Power Grid Corp, and supply of towers, hardware, and poles in the Americas. Its cables business won an order to supply various types of cables and conductors in India and overseas.

During Q3FY25, KEC International reported a 33.8% YoY increase in net profit at Rs 129.6 crore. Revenue grew 6.8%, reaching Rs 5,349.4 crore. EBITDA margin expanded by 85bps to 7%.

The company’s order intake jumped 115.2% to Rs 8,600 crore in Q3, driven by strong growth in the T&D, civil, and renewables segments. YTD inflows now stand at Rs 25,000 crore, boosting revenue visibility. Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects KEC’s revenue to grow by 12.3% YoY in Q4FY25.

Vimal Kejriwal, the MD & CEO, said, “With a solid and diversified order book and L1 (orders where the company is the lowest bidder) of over Rs 41,000 crore, better execution visibility, a stable cost environment, and a robust tender pipeline, we are well positioned for sustained growth in the coming quarters”.

With a strong order pipeline in place, the focus now falls on the execution of projects. KEC International also expects strong T&D opportunities in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi to drive international orders while maintaining a wait-and-watch stance on US orders.

Axis Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on KEC International and sets a target price of Rs 1,040. The brokerage believes the company’s strong order book offers healthy revenue visibility for the next 18-24 months. The government’s focus on T&D and the Jal Jeevan Mission extension till 2028 further support its growth prospects.

3. Steel Authority of India:

This PSU steel manufacturer has gained 8.9% in the past week following two major announcements. Steel Authority of India (SAIL) plans to invest Rs 30,000 crore to double the capacity of its Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP) to 9 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). After the expansion, RSP will produce about 25% of SAIL’s total target of 35 MTPA by 2030.

Meanwhile, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has recommended a 12% safeguard duty on certain steel imports for 200 days, to support domestic producers. This decision follows the US imposing a 25% tariff on steel imports. With US export options becoming limited, major steel-producing countries like China, Japan, and South Korea may look to dump their excess steel into India. This could lead to a surge in imports and put pressure on domestic steel manufacturers. To counter this, the safeguard duty has been proposed.

SAIL’s earnings are highly sensitive to hot rolled coil (HRC) and coking coal prices. The company’s management expects coking coal costs to decline by Rs 1,000/t in Q4FY25 (current Rs 15,0000/t) due to lower imported coal prices. At the same time, HRC prices rose by over Rs 1,100/t (currently Rs 50,000/t) in early March. Higher HRC prices and lower coking coal prices boost profitability.

Meanwhile, the company aims to reduce debt and maintain a stable debt-to-equity (DE) ratio during its expansion. Executive Director of Finance Praveen Nigam said, “Borrowings will be reduced to around Rs 30,500 crore by FY25-end from the current Rs 32,600 crore, aligning with FY24 levels. We expect the DE ratio to remain at 1:1, peaking at 1.2:1 during the expansion phase.”

Axis Securities has upgraded its rating to ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 130. The brokerage noted that capital expenditure for the next phase of expansion will begin in H2FY26 and could peak in FY28-29. They expect steel price spreads (price-cost gap) to drive profitability.

4. Dr. Agarwals Health Care:

Thiseye hospital chain surged 3.9% on March 20 after Motilal Oswalinitiated a ‘Buy’ call with a target price of Rs 510, citing the significant market share shift from unorganized to organized players in the eye care industry.

Dr. Agarwals Health Care (DAHL) has anestimated 25% market share among organized players in FY24. The company provides eye care services, including cataract and refractive surgeries, diagnostics, consultations, and non-surgical treatments. The company also sells optical products such as glasses, contact lenses, and eye care-related pharmaceutical products.

InQ3FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 28.7% YoY to Rs 443.4 crore and its net profit increased 12.7% YoY to Rs 22.3 crore. The growth was driven by an increase in surgical volumes, a shift towards high-end procedures, particularly in cataract surgeries, and a 19.3% YoY increase in patient footfall over 9MFY25. The company added 12 facilities in Q3, with a focus on expanding its reach in underpenetrated regions.

DAHL isactively expanding into underpenetrated regions like North India (Punjab, Jammu) and West India (Maharashtra, Gujarat) while also planning to enter non-core states such as Delhi-NCR, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, and Madhya Pradesh. Adil Agarwal, Director and CEO of the company,said, “In the fourth quarter, we have already launched three new facilities. Looking ahead, in Q4, we are targeting to launch another 8 to 10 additional surgical facilities and seven primary facilities.”

The brokerageexpects a CAGR of 21% in revenue and 23% in EBITDA over FY25-27, reaching Rs 2,490 crore and Rs 690 crore, respectively, driven by growth in surgical volumes and pharmacy revenue.

5. Welspun Corp:

This iron & steel pipes manufacturing company touched a new 52-week high of Rs 856 on 20th March. On March 17th, the company won new orders worth around Rs 2,400 crore for supply of coated pipes for gas pipeline projects in the USA. With these new orders, the company's consolidated order book stands at approx. Rs 20,000 crore, to be executed in FY26-27. On February 24, the company incorporated its new wholly owned subsidiary, Welspun Europe in Spain. The subsidiary will be focusing on all types of conduits and systems for the transport of fluids.

The company announced its Q3FY25 results on February 5. In the quarter, its net profit surged 131.7% YoY to Rs 674.7 crore, fueled by a reduction in raw material costs. However, its revenue decreased by 23.2% due to decline in plastic products segment revenue. The company’s revenue beat forecaster estimates by 12% due to growth in its steel products segment. It appears on the screener for stocks with strong momentum.

Vipul Mathur, Managing Director of Welspun Corp, said, “I would like to emphasize that for the first nine months, our consolidated EBITDA reached Rs 1,356 crore, compared to our full-year FY25 guidance of Rs 1,700 crore. This clearly shows that we are on track to exceed our guidance for the second consecutive year, despite global challenges and concerns. We have a strong order book exceeding Rs 15,000 crore as of Q3, and in line pipes, our combined order book for India and the USA stands at nearly 8,66,000 tons, valued at over Rs 12,000 crore. ”

The company has invested Rs 1,700 crore in Saudi Arabia for an LSAW (Longitudinal Submerged Arc Welding) plant that manufactures large-diameter pipes. Vipul Mathur said, “The main incentive in Saudi Arabia is its market. We're observing strong return ratios, and we're expecting a payback period of no more than three to four years for this investment.”

JM Financial recommended a ‘Buy’ rating on Welspun Corp with a target price of Rs 940, citing robust demand outlook from the US market. The brokerage highlighted that the company’s net debt in Q3FY25 sharply reduced to Rs 100 crore as compared to Rs 530 crore in Q2FY25 on the back of better operational cashflows. It notes that all the company’s projects including Saudi Arabia and US remain on track.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.