794.10 9.40 (1.20%)
NSEOct 27, 2020 03:31 PM
The 45 reports from 11 analysts offering long term price targets for Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. have an average target of 949.55. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 19.58% from the last price of 794.10.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2020-10-26||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||784.70||1025.00||784.70 (1.20%)||29.08||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Natrol had annual sales of US$157 million (4.8% of consolidated sales) in FY20. Hence, this transaction values the business at 3.5x sales, a compelling deal by any standards. The company will utilise proceeds to reduce debt and other new strategic initiatives. We believe a significant portion of the company's current debt (| 4777 crore as of Q1FY21) is working capital based. Therefore, a major portion of cash generated through this deal is likely be utilised for strategic investments. The sale of this non-core segment is likely to improve focus on new and complex ventures such as biosimilars,...
|2020-10-26||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||794.10||985.00||794.10||24.04||Buy|
Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP) has announced the divestment of Natrol, a whollyowned unit of its US-based subsidiary, for USD550m (~INR40b) as an all-cash deal. Considering Natrol's FY20 sales/PAT at USD157m/USD27m, the deal is attractive at valuation of 3.5x EV/Sales and 20x P/E on FY20 basis....
|2020-09-27||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||800.70||1030.00||800.70 (-0.82%)||29.71||Neutral|
27 September 2020 ARBP's future pipeline comprises differentiated and margin-accretive products in Oncology, Depot Injections, Inhalers, Biosimilars, Vaccines, Topicals, and Patches. Overall it has 6MDIs, 2 Dry Powder Inhalers (DPIs), 14 Biosimilars, 26 Topicals, 8 Transdermals, 3 Depot Injections and 2 Vaccines under development. We expect ARBP to deliver 10% sales CAGR in the US over FY20-22E. While there has been COVID-led slowdown in the EU business, ARBP remains on track to expand its product offerings, adding newer markets and increasing its penetration in existing markets. We expect ARBP to deliver 6% sales CAGR in the EU business over FY20-22E. ARBP has completed the corrective and preventive action (CAPA) at Units 1, 9, and 11/Aurolife and is awaiting feedback from the USFDA on desktop reviews. ARBP should complete the CAPA at Unit 7 soon. Aurobindo Pharma We expect ARBP to deliver 15% earnings CAGR over FY20-22E, led by new launches /increased market share in key markets of the US/EU and lower financial leverage.
|2020-09-22||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Sharekhan||780.20||975.00||780.20 (1.78%)||22.78||Buy|
Aurobindo Pharma Limited (Aurobindo) is witnessing improved traction in its US business, which constitutes around half of overall sales. Aurobindo is one of the few pharmaceutical companies reporting an impressive performance in the US as compared to others, which have been facing challenges. The US business is expected to grow in double digits going ahead. A combination of factors, including a sturdy new product pipeline, easing of pricing pressures, opportunities arising from shortage of products in the US, and an expected recovery in the injectable business would be key drivers for the US business....
|2020-09-07||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Axis Direct||794.05||940.00||794.05 (0.01%)||18.37||Buy|
Aurobindo Pharma Limited (ARBP) manufactures generic pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients. The company's robust product portfolio is spread over 6 major therapeutic/product areas encompassing Antibiotics, Anti-Retroviral, CVS, CNS, Gastroenterological
|2020-08-18||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||856.15||981.00||856.15 (-7.25%)||23.54||Buy|
Geojit BNP Paribas
We remain positive on the stock on account of healthy US formulation business growth, new products launches and strong pipeline. Separately, we believe smooth road ahead as company received EIR status for Hyderabad facility. Hence, we reiterate our BUY rating on the...
|2020-08-17||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||KRChoksey||864.35||1027.00||864.35 (-8.13%)||29.33||Buy|
Aurobindo reported Revenue growth of 8.8% YoY (-3.8% QoQ) to INR 59.2 bn, led by the US, & Antiretroviral business. Formulation business grew 9.2% YoY( -4.8% QoQ, ~87% of revenue) while API rose 6.5% YoY (+3.2% QoQ, ~13% of revenue). EBITDA for the quarter rose 9.7% YoY (-4.5% QoQ) to INR 12.6 bn while EBITDA margin expanded 17 bps YoY/ (down 15 bps QoQ) to 21.2% in 1QFY21 (from 21.1% last year). Adj Net Profit rose 20.4% YoY (-6.8% QoQ) to INR 7.8 bn. Adj. Net Profit Margin for the quarter expanded 126 bps YoY to 13.2.0% (down 43 bps QoQ) from 11.9% in 1QFY20. Reported PAT came at INR 7,806 mn (+22.8% YoY, -8.1% QoQ). Investment in Research for the quarter was INR 2.5 bn at 4.3% of revenue. Net organic capex for the quarter was ~USD 49 million. Aurobindo received final approval for 10 ANDAs from USFDA during the quarter....
|2020-08-14||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||879.10||938.00||879.10 (-9.67%)||18.12||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Aurobindo Pharma's (APL) 1QFY21 revenue at Rs59,248mn is down 3.8% QoQ. It is 23% above our estimate and in line with consensus estimate. The Formulations business declined by 4.8% QoQ as the business in Europe and Emerging Markets was down. The decline in these two markets was offset by growth in the US and a strong performance in ARV markets. The US business grew on the back of higher volume in oral solids and dietary supplement portfolio (Natrol), which was offset by a decline in the injectable business. The company expects about 50 new launches in the US in FY21, which may lead to about low single digit growth in the US revenue base. APL has also initiated...
|2020-08-13||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||881.30||1100.00||881.30 (-9.89%)||38.52||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
US key growth driver despite recent compliance upheavals After filing its first ANDA in the US in 2003, the company has come a long way as current ANDA filings are at 604. US revenues have grown from ~US$100 million in 2009 crossing $1.6 billion sales as on 2020. In rupee terms, US sales have grown at 17% CAGR to | 11484 crore in FY16-20. US formulations now constitute 50% of total turnover, up from 30% in FY13. Despite calling off the acquisition of Sandoz' US dermatology and oral solid portfolio, we expect US revenue size to reach | 14925 crore in FY22E at a...
|2020-08-13||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||879.10||1000.00||879.10 (-9.67%)||25.93||Buy|
|2020-08-13||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||864.35||838.00||864.35 (-8.13%)||Target met||Hold|
1QFY21 earnings were in-line with our estimate with sequential decline in revenue and PAT of 4% and 8% respectively. We believe incremental growth would be challenging for US business due to regulatory issue and slowdown in AuroMedics portfolio caused by lower footfalls in hospital. Auromedics (17% of US sales in FY20) declined by 33% in last 2 quarters and outlook remains bleak. Despite FY21E guidance of 45-50 new launches in US, ARBP may lag behind as resolution over multiple plants remains elusive. ARBP also...
|2020-06-16||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||788.95||838.00||788.95 (0.65%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Price fix of 40 formulations by NPPA will not have an impact on listed entities. With the disruption in productions, logistical movement and manpower scarcity, IPM growth declined in first two months of FY21E. The severity of declining trend is visible in 1) acute-heavy portfolios, 2) top premium brands (with alternative cheaper/generic drugs), 3) drugs used in hospital surgeries, 4) secondary therapies like Derma, Opthal, vaccines, stimulants and hormones whose treatment can be delayed. Key listed companies such as Alkem, GlaxoSmithKline, Alembic, FDC, Indoco are to be impacted in...
|2020-06-05||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||744.00||785.00||744.00 (6.73%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Closer to being debt free, preparing for the next leap Aurobindo Pharma's (APL) 4QFY20 revenue at Rs61,584mn is up 4.5% QoQ and 3.1%/3.7% above our/consensus estimates, respectively. The Formulations business grew by 23.5% YoY and 5.8% QoQ, led by strong performance in Europe (up 12% QoQ). Revenue growth came along with gross margin expansion of 300bps (QoQ), which was driven by low cost inventory and higher realizations (aided by USD/Euro appreciation). Net profit stood at Rs8,498mn, which was 31%/19% above our/consensus estimates. Going forward, executing growth on this base in the near...
|2020-06-05||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||744.00||838.00||744.00 (6.73%)||Target met||Accumulate|
We believe regulatory issues are likely to abate in FY21E as CAPA (Corrective and Preventive Actions) have been completed for Unit-I, IX, VII, and XI and ARBP is in continuous discussion with FDA for virtual cGMP audit. We believe successful resolution will lead ARBP to launch 50-60 quality products in FY21E with better realization due to favorable forex. ARBP had received only 22 ANDAs approval in FY20 versus 49 in FY19 and 51 in FY18. The lower approval was on the back of regulatory issues in its two key plants...
|2020-06-04||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||744.00||880.00||744.00 (6.73%)||Target met||Buy|
4 June 2020 Despite slowdown in ANDA approvals due to regulatory hurdles, ARBP delivered better-than-expected earnings on increased market share in existing products. With the VAI classification at Unit-4 and an increasing number of filings from sites under successful compliance, we expect the pace of launches to improve in the US market going forward. Turnaround in Apotex and continuous effort to better margins in the EU business would further boost overall profitability. The API business (12% of sales) was down 17.6% YoY, which dragged down overall growth to some extent. higher other expenses / employee cost (+240bp YoY /+50bp YoY as a percentage of sales), offset by lower R&D; spend (-50bp YoY as a percentage ARBP saw forex loss of INR260m and exceptional cost of INR120m related to 29.7% on revenue growth, better operating margins, and a lower tax rate.
|2020-06-04||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Sharekhan||750.85||840.00||750.85 (5.76%)||Target met||Hold|
Aurobindo Pharma Limited's (Aurobindo's) results for Q4FY2020 were better than estimates. Sales grew in double digits, by 16.4% to Rs. 6,158 crore because of sturdy 23% y-o-y growth in the formulations business. Double-digit growth across all regions drove the formulations segment's revenues. The API segment reported a drop of 17.6% y-o-y. Operating margins at 21.8% expanded by 180 bps y-o-y led by a sharp expansion in gross margins, attributable to favorable mix and benefits of low costs raw material inventory. Operating profit, at Rs. 1,342 crore grew by 26.6% y-o-y. Adjusting for one-offs, PAT stood at Rs 882 crore, rising 41% y-o-y...
|2020-06-04||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||744.00||900.00||744.00 (6.73%)||Target met||Buy|
|2020-05-13||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||HDFC Securities||675.90||14.00||675.90 (17.49%)||Target met||Buy|
We rate Aurobindo Buy with a TP of Rs 790 on a target PER of 14x FY22e EPS, in line with its 5-year hist. avg. Risks: higher erosion in the US; delay in plant resolution (Unit I, IX, XI and VII); slower margin improvement in Apotex business and lower debt reduction. We resume coverage on Aurobindo with a Buy premised on: 1) strong execution track record exhibited by ~530bps increase in prescription share over the past 4 years in US generics; 2) steady progress on a differentiated pipeline should drive long-term earnings sustainability; 3) turnaround of Apotex business will further drive margin expansion of EU business; and 4) strong FCF generation to aid in reducing leverage. The stock has underperformed the sector over the past year by 17%. At 12x FY22e EPS, it trades at a 20% discount to its historical average and 40% discount to the sector.
|2020-04-22||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||642.25||719.00||642.25 (23.64%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Aurobindo Pharma Ltd (APL) has received an EIR for its Unit-IV and the status is classified as VAI. The VAI status puts to rest concerns about the compliance woes at the facility getting aggravated. The stock price reaction (up 19%) was an outcome of valuation rerating and a potential higher earnings growth trajectory. We revise our FY21/FY22 EPS estimates from Rs43.3/Rs44.0 to Rs45.3/Rs47.9, respectively. The VAI removes overhang on the stock: Unit IV is one of the most critical plants from an organic growth perspective and hence the stock was trading at depressed multiples post getting form 483 observations in November 2019. These observations were perceived to be...
|2020-04-21||Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||642.25||770.00||642.25 (23.64%)||Target met||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Whilst four plants continuing to be under USFDA scrutiny [Unit XI has warning letter, Unit VII, Unit I, Unit IX have official action indicated (OAI) status from the USFDA], re-assignment of VAI status for Unit IV despite 14 observations (that too for an injectable plant where cGMP requirements are even more stringent) came in as a huge positive surprise to us. Unit IV is a critical plant for the company, given most of its pending injectables are filed from this plant. Injectable segment is one of the key drivers for the company's future growth and margins. We expect the US injectable...