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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    03 Feb 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. KPIT Technologies: This IT consulting & software company reached its all-time high of Rs 813 per share on Wednesday after posting strong net profit growth of 20.4% QoQ to Rs 100.5 crore in Q3FY23. Growth from the UK & Europe and rest of the world (ROW) markets aided an improvement in the company’s revenue by 23.2% QoQ to Rs 917.1 crore. As a result, it features in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past eight quarters. Both revenue and net profit beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 4.2% and 5% respectively.

    The rise in revenue in Europe comes after KPIT’s subsidiary, KPIT Technologies GmbH acquired four companies under the Technica Group for a total consideration of Rs 640 crore on September 21, 2022. Additionally, a leading European OEM selected KPIT as its key partner for next-generation electronic control units (ECU) while Renault Group selected KPIT as a strategic technology partner on November 23, 2022.

    As a result, revenue from UK & Europe rose 48.2% QoQ in Q3, despite a broad economic slowdown in the region. Kishor Patil, Co-founder, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Managing Director of the company commented, “Q3FY23 has been better than expectations. Our performance gives us confidence in beating our FY23 growth outlook.”

    The stock ranks high in Trendlyne’s checklist with a score of 78.3%. However, the company has a high trailing twelve-month or TTM PE ratio of 60.4 against the industry PE average of 29.6. Because of the high PE ratio compared to its historical levels, the company features in the PE sell zone.

    1. Britannia Industries: This FMCG stock’s Q3FY23 net profit surged 2.5X YoY to Rs 932.4 crore. The surge in net profit was because of an exceptional gain reported by the company. The gain amounted to Rs 359 crore (net of tax) and was received by selling a stake in Britannia Dairy to Bel SA. As inflation moderated, the company’s operating margin improved by 447 bps YoY to 18.14%. Price hikes also helped in the growth of margins. The management plans to continue with gradual price hikes in the coming quarters. It also expects the partnership with Bel SA to drive sales in the under-penetrated cheese market. Net sales for the company grew 16.2% YoY to Rs 4,101.5 crore on new product launches, growing customer franchise and market share gains.

    The stock was trading near its 52-week high before touching an all-time high of Rs 4,596 in a volatile market today. Removing the exceptional gains from the net profit, Britannia beats Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 21.6%. It shows up in screeners of stocks with increasing revenue and profit for the past two quarters. It also is in a screener of stocks with strong momentum growth.

    Foreign brokerage Jefferies has maintained a ‘Buy’ on the stock as its margin growth beat expectations on low input prices and raw material inventory. It has upgraded its target price by 14.4% to Rs 5,000. ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Add’ rating and expects its revenue CAGR to grow by 13% over FY22-24E. The outlook for the FMCG sector looks good as the Centre’s relief for the middle class in the Union Budget 2023-24 is likely to improve customer demand.

    1. AIA Engineering: This other industrial goods manufacturer’s stock rose 12.4% over the past week till Thursday, on account of its Q3FY23 results beating the street’s expectations. The company’s net profit and revenue beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 64.9% and 5.8%, respectively. Its net profit jumped more than 2.5X YoY to Rs 352.5 crore on the back of higher realisations, strong sales volumes and falling raw material and power & fuel costs. Only freight expenses increased YoY, which the company was able to pass on to its customers.

    Cost declines helped the  EBITDA margin surge by 10.8 percentage points YoY to 29.8%. The firm shows up in a screener for stocks in the PE Buy zone with a high durability score and rising momentum.

    The company’s volume grew by 23% YoY to 71,439 metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) in Q3, led by a 60% growth in the non-mining segment. Its mining segment saw modest growth of 8% YoY in volumes. ICICI Securities expects demand from the mining sector to increase on the back of capacity expansion and elevated commodity prices. It believes AIA Engineering is well-placed to capitalise on this demand growth, given its technologically superior products. ICICI Securities upgraded its rating on the company to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’.

    In anticipation of growing demand, the management said it has planned to expand its installed capacity to 5.2 lakh mtpa from 4.4 lakh mtpa. The company has planned a capex of Rs 300 crore, most of which will be utilised towards capacity expansion. However, the management does acknowledge a risk of volatility in commodity prices.

    1. Data Patterns (India): Thedefence and aerospace solution provider released itsQ3FY23 results on 28th January. Data Patterns’ revenue grew by 2.5x YoY and 26.27% QoQ. On account of better execution, gross margins have expanded 140 bps QoQ while EBITDA margins for Q3FY23 were at 42.2% vs. 35.7% in Q3FY22. The order book at the end of Q3FY23 was Rs 888 crore. The company won orders worth Rs 163 crores in January 2023, which has increased the order backlog to Rs 1,014 crore. Development orders comprised 56% of total order backlog inflows as of Q3FY23. The production segment share was pegged at 38% with 6% from the services segment.

    The management maintained its FY23-25 revenue guidance of 25-30% growth with a gross margin of 65% and EBITDA margin of 40%. The company is confident of winning orders to the tune of Rs 150-200 crore in Q4FY23. The management expects Rs 2,000-3,000 crore worth of orders in the pipeline for the next three to four years. The stock shows up in thescreener for growth in quarterly net profit and increasing profit margin.

    ICICI Securities says Data Patterns has the ability to deliver revenue and PAT CAGR of 29.3% and 28.5% respectively over FY22-25E. However, the stock has run up, limiting further upside given the rich valuations and no room for execution error at such multiples. The brokerage has revised its Buy rating to Hold.

    1. Indian Hotels Company: This hotel company surged over 8% in trade on Wednesday after it announced strong Q3FY23 results. The Finance Minister’s announcement on the Centre’s support for the tourism industry in the Union Budget also added to the rise. The hotels industry rose over 5% in trade on the same day.

    The company reported its highest-ever net profit of Rs 383 crore, up 403% YoY in Q3. IHCL also posted strong growth in revenues, up 54% YoY to Rs 1,743.5 crore. Its solid performance was driven by robust demand across markets as well as airline catering. As a result, the company features in a screener of companies that saw growth in net profit with an increasing profit margin (QoQ).

    However, the occupancy rate remains below pre-covid levels at 72.1%. On the bright side, the average room rate jumped 25% to Rs 15,456, compared to pre-covid levels, due to a series of price hikes.

    Commenting on the company’s strong performance during the quarter, Puneet Chhatwal, Managing Director & CEO of Indian Hotels, said that the demand outlook for the sector in 2023 remains robust with sporting events such as the hockey and cricket world cup, global events like the ongoing G20, and the increase in inbound travel. In 9MFY23, IHCL has added over 30 hotels to the pipeline and has opened 14 hotels, in addition to strong growth in amã Stays & Trails and Qmin.

    ICICI Securities is positive about the company’s outlook due to its efforts in leveraging its existing brand equity to focus on new business segments. The brokerage upgraded its rating to ‘Buy’ from ‘Add’ and raised the target price to Rs 399 from Rs 366, implying a potential upside of 25.7%.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    03 Feb 2023
    Chart of the week: Centre expects fiscal deficit  to fall to 5.9% of GDP in FY24

    Chart of the week: Centre expects fiscal deficit to fall to 5.9% of GDP in FY24

    By Abdullah Shah

    As global economic growth slows down, India’s GDP growth in FY23 is also expected to slow down to 7% from 8.7% in FY22. GDP growth in FY24 is expected to further reduce, to 6.5%. 

    This is important for India’s Budget as the fiscal deficit is expressed as % of GDP. As the GDP estimate is revised downward, the Centre will have to reduce the expenditure to reduce the fiscal deficit.

    The fiscal deficit as % of GDP rose to a record high of 9.5% in FY21, and Nirmala Sitharaman, the Finance Minister, had committed to reducing it. In line with the guidance, fiscal deficit as a % of GDP fell to 6.4% in FY23. The centre aims to further lower this to 5.9% of the GDP in FY24 and eventually to 4.5% of the GDP by FY25. 

    In order to achieve a lower fiscal deficit in FY24, the government has planned to reduce expenditure on subsidies and pensions while keeping the spending on rural development constant. However, the Centre continues to focus on transport and defence segments as its spending is expected to rise 32.4% and 5.7% in these segments respectively, when compared to FY23 revised estimates. In addition, interest expenditure is also expected to rise 14.8% in FY24. 

    Revised estimates of subsidies for food and fertilisers overshot FY23 budgeted amounts as the government had to boost support via free food grains and fertiliser subsidies amid higher commodity inflation. 

    In FY24, the government has decided to curb the expenditure on subsidies with an estimated spend of Rs 2 lakh crore on food (-31.3%) and Rs 1.8 lakh crore on fertilisers (-22.2%). The estimated expenditure on pensions has also been marginally reduced to Rs 2.3 lakh crore in FY24 from the revised estimates of Rs 2.4 lakh crore in FY23.

    The interest, transport and defence are the segments with the highest estimated expenditure in FY24. These segments contribute to 45.1% of the total estimated expenditure. The Centre has increased the estimated expenditure of interest to Rs 10.8 lakh crore in FY24 from t Rs 9.4 lakh crore in FY23 revised estimates. 

    The rise comes on the back of higher requirements for payment of interest on market loans, discount on Treasury Bills, Central Government securities issued by National Small Savings Fund and state provident funds. 

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    The Baseline
    02 Feb 2023
    Screener of the week: Adani group companies with high pledged shares by promoters

    Screener of the week: Adani group companies with high pledged shares by promoters

    By Abdullah Shah

    As Adani Group stocks rocket downward, we take a look at the implications for their pledged shares by promoters. This screener looks at Adani Group stocks’ promoter holding pledges and annual debt-equity ratio.

    Adani Group has pledged 100% of their stake as promoters of Ambuja Cements. The cement & cement products company has a high forward PE ratio of 50X, which is higher than its current PE. Analysts forecast its profits falling by 20% YoY in FY23. 

    The group has also pledged 25% of their stake in Adani Power. In Q3FY23, the promoters pledged an additional 14.1% of their shares in this electric utilities company. It has the second-highest annual debt-to-equity ratio of 8.9X among listed Adani group companies.

    Adani Transmission has a promoters pledge ratio of 6.6%. The electric utilities company stands a risk of seeing more of its promoter holding being pledged to lenders, as it has fallen over 35% over the past week. 

    Adani Green Energy is also at risk of seeing more promoter pledges due to its recent crash of 36% till January 31. This player has the highest annual debt-to-equity ratio of 43.9 among Adani group companies, and its return on capital (ROCE) is nearly half of its sector average.  

    You can find some popular screenershere.

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    The Baseline
    01 Feb 2023
    Budget 2023 Live Analysis

    Budget 2023 Live Analysis

    Budget 2023: Winners and Losers

    • Sector/IndustrySector Change 1 YearSector Change 1 YearBudget Impact
      Telecom-1.48%-0.96%Increase in government spending in telecom infrastructure from Rs 3,010 crore in FY23 to Rs 10,400 crore in FY24. However, telecom stocks traded in red as the Centre also increased its non-tax revenue collection target from telecom companies by 30% to Rs 89,469 crore. Telecom Services closed 1% lower in trade today.
      Life Insurance-16.99%-9.2%Life insurance stocks fell more than 9% in trade today after the Centre announced that all income earned from life insurance policies (excluding unit-linked insurance plans) with a premium of above Rs 5 lakh will be taxable. This is applicable post-April 01, 2023. Insurance companies are now worried that high-premium products will face slow demand. Major stocks like SBI Life Insurance, HDFC Life Insurance, Life Insurance Corp and Max Financial fell in trade today.
      Real Estate-8.41%-1.06% Much needed boost for infrastructure development both directly and indirectly. The Finance Minister (FM) has laid out Rs 10,000 crore for urban infrastructure development, with Rs 79,000 crore dedicated to PM Aawas Yojana - a housing development project. FM also specified that infrastructure will be one of the top three priorities. Increased capex will boost growth in these sectors. The index Nifty Realty however pared its gains and closed 0.94% lower in trade today.
      Banking6.68%-0.35%Banking stocks declined post the budget announcement. The budget deficit of 6.4% is higher than historical trends. As government borrowing increases, it sucks liquidity from commercial banks as banks are the biggest market for government bonds. Banks have been reeling with agriculture loans and MSME loans. The government has raised the agriculture loan target to Rs 20 lakh crore. MSME emergency credit line was not fully utilized in FY23. The allocation has been brought down to Rs 14,000 crore from earlier Rs 15,000 crore.
      General Industrials29.8%-1.34% The Centre has raised capex budget by 33% for FY24 with a special focus on railway infrastructure. This may attract higher private investments and start a new capex cycle. This bodes well for the order books of capital goods makers especially those which get business from Indian railways, manufacturing, power generation, defence and construction industries. Stocks in focus: Timken India, Siemens, Rail Vikas Nigam, Cummins, HAL, Bharat Electronics, CG Power, ABB India
      Agrochemicals / fertilizers47.14%-2.67% The majority of fertilizer stocks ended up negative post-budget announcement. The government has cut down the budget allocation of urea subsidy from Rs 1,54,098 crore (revised estimates) for FY23 to Rs 1,31,100 crore in FY24.
      Pharmaceuticals-0.1%-0.33% Indian pharma companies’ reactions to the Union budget unveiling were mixed. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the Centre will encourage the pharma industry to invest in research and development in priority areas. The impact of this on pharma companies will be dependent upon the priority areas or segments that the Centre will decide to focus on. With regard to the allocation to major schemes, the Centre has allocated Rs 1,250 crore (Rs 100 crore in FY23) for the Pharmaceutical department as per FY24 budget estimates.
      Defence49.5%-5.43% All 11 companies in this industry fell post-budget announcement after an early trading session rally despite a 13% increase in the Indian defence budget to Rs 5.94 lakh crore in FY23. This could be due to a less-than-expected increase in the capital outlay, which is mainly used to buy defense equipment. Capital outlay rose only 6.3% YoY to Rs 1.63 lakh crore. A slowdown in capital outlay growth momentum could hurt the order book growth of fast-rising defence companies. However, an already strong order book could help offset this; The focus falls back on the execution of orders going forward.
      FMCG10.64%-0.14% FMCG stocks rose as the Finance Minister announced plans to boost agricultural production. The Centre set an agriculture credit target of Rs 20 lakh crore and has announced various schemes to help farmers, fishermen and agricultural credit societies. However, the FMCG sector lost most of its gains by the end of today’s trade and closed flat. Although a surge in production may ease supply constraints to a certain extent, the focus still remains on cost pressures due to commodity prices still at elevated levels.
      Hotels, Restaurants & Tourism16.85%1.09% Hotel and Tourism stocks rallied in intra-day trade as the Finance Minister announced the promotion of tourism through government programs and public-private partnerships. At a time when demand for travel has almost recovered to pre-Covid levels, this Centre's focus on tourism is likely to push travel demand up in the coming years.
    • The Centre cuts food, fertilizer and fuel subsidy spends by 28% to Rs 3.74 lakh crore (estimated) for FY24.

    • The Centre cuts back spending on rural jobs guarantee schemes in the Union Budget. Also, customs duty has been revised in the import of parts for mobile phone manufacturing, seeds used in lab-grown diamonds, and open cells of TV panels.

      Basic custom duty on crude, glycerine proposed to be reduced to 2.5%

      Extend customs duty cut on imports of parts of mobile phones by 1 yr

      To reduce customs duty on open cells of TV panels to 2.5% pic.twitter.com/y4ftuyyDPK

      — Moneycontrol (@moneycontrolcom) February 1, 2023
    • Finance Minister, in her budget, has extended the date of incorporation for startups to avail tax benefits to March 31, 2024, from March 31, 2023. The FM also proposes the benefit of carrying forward losses on change of shareholding for startups to 10 years of incorporation from the current seven years.

    • Finance Minister proposes to remove the minimum threshold of Rs 10,000 on TDS and increase the rebate limit to Rs 7 lakh per year from Rs 5 lakh.

      Decoding the new income tax regime of Budget 2023!

      What do you make of FM Sitharaman's tax tweaks, let us know in comments! #IncomeTax#Tax#BudgetWithMC#Budget2023WithMC#Budget2023#UnionBudget#UnionBudget2023#NirmalaSitharaman#BudgetSession@nsitharamanoffcpic.twitter.com/U9ydiYOlTX

      — Moneycontrol (@moneycontrolcom) February 1, 2023
    • The government has a capex of Rs 35,000 crore for energy transition investment. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman says that battery storage will get viability gap funding. The government also remodels the credit guarantee scheme for MSMEs with an investment of Rs 9,000 crore, reducing the cost of credit by 1 percentage point. This will come into effect from April 1.

    • Finance Minister announces an investment of Rs 75,000 crore for transport infrastructure projects in steel, ports, fertilizer, coal and foodgrain sectors, with Rs 15,000 crore coming from private sources. Iron & Steel/Interm.Products and Fertilizer industries trade in the green.

    • The fiscal deficit for 2022-23 stands at 6.4% of GDP. Finance Minister says that it will fall to 5.9% in 2023-24.

    • The government reduces more than 39,000 compliances and decriminalises more than 3,000 legal provisions to improve the ease of doing business.

    • Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corp and Rail Vikas Nigam rise as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announces Rs 2.4 lakh crore capital outlay for railways.

    • Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman says the Centre’s capital outlay towards infrastructure development rises 33% to Rs 10 lakh crore. She adds that Rs 2.4 lakh crore will be allotted towards railways.

    • Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman says that India's per capita income has grown to Rs 1.97 lakh crore.

      India's per capita income has increased to Rs 1.97 lakh crore, says @nsitharaman#BudgetWithTimes#Budget2023#UnionBudget2023

      Follow LIVE updates: https://t.co/hElUd4KFYbpic.twitter.com/tYqJuCK3pV

      — The Times Of India (@timesofindia) February 1, 2023

    • The Centre is focused on increasing jobs for the youth and enhancing the agriculture sector by bringing modern technologies.

    • The Centre will bear the complete expenditure of Rs 2 lakh crore to ensure Food Security. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman says that agriculture credit will be enhanced to Rs 20 lakh crore.

    • Hotel stocks rise as the Centre announces support for the tourism industry. 

    • Rupee gains 12 paise against the US dollar to Rs 81.76 per dollar in early trade today, ahead of the Union Budget.

      #RupeeCheck | Rupee opens at 81.77/$ Vs Tuesday’s close of 81.92/$ pic.twitter.com/Xa2as8bqyA

      — CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) February 1, 2023

    • Economic Survey reveals that direct income has risen by 26%. The survey also suggests that borrowing costs will continue to remain high as rate tightening cycle may last for a longer period. India’s core sector output has also increased by 7.4% in December 2022.

    • The government's tax revenue is expected to exceed budget estimates by Rs 4 lakh crore on higher income tax and customs duty. The Centre's planned capex for this fiscal year is Rs 7.5 lakh crore, compared to Rs 5.5 lakh crore last fiscal. Industries such as infrastructure, defence and logistics are expected to see a boost in funding.

    • India’s manufacturing PMI falls to a three-month low of 55.4 in January, compared to 57.8 in December 2022. However, the reading remains above 50 for the 19th consecutive time.

      The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) started 2023 on a weak note as output and sales growth slackened, according to a survey by S&P Global.https://t.co/z15XudtDrG

      — Mint (@livemint) February 1, 2023
    • Reports suggest that nominal GDP growth in FY23 will be around 15.4%. The real GDP growth will be around 7% and is likely to come down to 6-6.5% in FY24.

    • The domestic market looks forward to more disposable income for the middle class and a reasonable disinvestment target from the Budget. The market will also focus on the defence, railways and capital goods sectors.

      #BudgetWithCNBCTV18 | What the market wants from #Budget2023 is as important as what the market doesn't want & @_AnujSinghal has both lists in his back pocket!#UnionBudget2023#Budget2023#CNBCTV18Marketpic.twitter.com/Vy3pKOBoEh

      — CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18News) February 1, 2023

    • Minister of State Finance, Pankaj Chaudhary, says that the 2023-24 budget will accommodate the expectations of all sections of society. Pradeep Misra, CMD – REPL, adds that infrastructure spending is likely to go up by 10% of GDP in the upcoming budget. Infrastructure spending will boost employment and generation of capital in the economy.

    • Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the last full budget of this government today. According to Economic Survey, India’s GDP growth is expected to be in the range of 6-6.8% for 2023-24. The Centre also plans to reduce the fiscal deficit and bring it to the level of 5.8-5.9% from 6.4%.

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    The Baseline
    30 Jan 2023
    Five analyst picks this week with upgrades in rating or target price

    Five analyst picks this week with upgrades in rating or target price

    By Suhas Reddy

    This week we take a look at analyst picks that saw an upgrade in their target price or rating from brokerages. 

    1. Jindal Steel and Power: ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this Iron & Steel Intermediate Products manufacturer and raises its target price to Rs 750 from Rs 605, which indicates a revision of 24%. With the new target price, the upside in the stock stands at 31.3%.

    Analysts Amit Dixit, Mohit Lohia and Pritish Urumkar believe the ramp-up in captive thermal coal production and the acquisition of Monnet Power Co’s assets will improve cost efficiencies. They also see an increase in volume due to the company’s logistical advantages and capacity expansion. Although the analysts expect realisations to fall, they see cost efficiencies driving the expansion of margins. 

    The analysts add, “Jindal Steel and Power (JSPL) has been the top performer among mainstream ferrous players with a robust return of 45% in the past 3 months.” They anticipate the company’s growth to be driven by cost efficiencies and volume growth. The analysts expect Jindal Steel’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% over FY22-24. 

    1. SBI Life Insurance Co: KRChoksey keeps its ‘Buy’ rating on this Life Insurance company and increases its target price to Rs 1,750 from Rs 1,550, a revision of 12.9%. With the new target price, the upside now stands at 42.7%.

    Analyst Abhishek Agarwal says the company is trading at an attractive valuation. Even though its Q3FY23 results have been a mixed bag, he expects healthy growth in the coming quarters. The renewal business has seen robust growth along with absolute value of new business (VNB), but the VNB margin contracted due to a higher share of Unit Linked Insurance Plan (ULIP). According to the analyst, “The company had been reporting 30%+ margins in the past few quarters but it contracted in Q3FY23 on the back of a higher share of the ULIP segment.” He believes that the strong margin growth in previous quarters will keep the annual margins healthy at 28-30% in FY23.

    Agarwal expects the non-par guaranteed products to continue seeing healthy traction in the coming quarters. He believes that the insurance firm’s net profit will grow at a CAGR of 13.1% over FY22-25.

    1. Canara Bank: Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this PSU Bank and raises its target price to Rs 410 from Rs 300, indicating a revision of 36.7%. The new target price implies an upside of 42.9%. 

    Analysts Nitin Aggarwal and Yash Agarwal remain positive on the company’s prospects as it has posted “strong operating performance supported by healthy traction in loan growth and improvement in asset quality, while margin expansion drove NII.” They add that loan growth is also healthy, led by the corporate, retail and agri segments. The improvement in asset quality, led by lower slippages and higher recoveries are seen as key positives by the analysts.

    They believe, along with this healthy operational performance, margin expansion and lower provisions have aided in improving profitability. The analysts cite higher NII and lower provisions for raising their net profit estimates by 5% for FY23 and FY24 each. They anticipate the bank’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 27.4% over FY23-25. 

    1. Supreme Industries: ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the Plastic Pipes manufacturer and raises its target price to Rs 2,880 from Rs 2,600, implying a revision of 10.8%. The new target price implies an upside of 12.7%.

    Analysts Sanjay Manyal, Hitesh Taunk and Ashwi Bhansali write that the company has posted healthy revenue growth on a YoY basis in Q3FY23, on the back of good volume growth. However, they point out that the margins and net profit are lower YoY but have expanded sequentially. They add that margins will gradually improve as inflation declines.

    The analysts believe the company will be a major beneficiary of the Centre’s flagship scheme, ‘Nal Se Jal’, in the long term. They also expect the mix of value-added products in its portfolio to increase in the coming quarters. The analysts say, “Rising contribution of value-added products in the overall top line (increased from 35% in FY18 to ~38% in FY22) will keep the EBITDA margin elevated.” Manyal, Taunk and Bhansali expect the firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 14.1% over FY22-25. 

    1. LTIMindtree: IDBI Capital upgrades its rating on this IT Consulting & Software stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ and raises its target price to Rs 5,000 from Rs 4,795, implying a revision of 4.3%. The new target price implies an upside of 13.1%.

    Even though the company’s revenue has grown just 1.9% QoQ, analysts Dhevang Bhatt and Dhawal Doshi believe its revenue growth will increase as the merger-related issues iron out. They add, “In terms of synergies, the company is expected to benefit from cross-sell & up-sell opportunities, diversification of portfolio, inorganic growth, end-to-end services, client mining and larger deals.” The analysts also like the IT firm’s focus on winning efficiency deals in legacy and digital, allowing it to save costs.

    The analysts note that the firm's cross-sell opportunities and ability to win large deals allow it to sustain healthy revenue growth in the long term. They also see margins improving in the medium term as supply-side pressures ease and operational efficiencies kick in. They expect the firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 17.7% over FY22-25.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    27 Jan 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Jindal Stainless: This iron & steel company reached its 52-week high of Rs 263.1 per share on Friday last week, ahead of its results on Monday. The stock has risen 22.7% over the past month. Jindal Stainless’ share price rose almost 1% post its Q3 result announcement, despite its net profit declining 27.8% YoY to Rs 314.3 crore in Q3FY23. However, its net profit beat Trendlyne's forecaster estimates by 22.2%, while revenue beat estimates by 8.5%. Its debt to equity ratio fell 80 bps QoQ to 0.53% in Q3. As a result, the company shows up in a screener of stocks with reducing debt.

    According to ICICI Direct, the company has good traction from sectors such as railways, automotive and new generation power plants in the domestic market. Additionally, the withdrawal of export duty is likely to boost premium-range volumes in overseas markets. The brokerage maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on Jindal Stainless with a target price of Rs 300, implying a potential upside of 16.7%.

    Jindal Stainless has a high rank in Trendlyne’s checklist with a score of 69.6% and is in the buy zone as its current PE is lower than its historical values and its sector TTM PE.

    1. Coforge: This software and services company has outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50 index by over 10% in the past week, supported by its strong Q3FY23 results. What impressed investors and analysts is the company's net profit beating Forecaster estimates by over 5%. Coforge’s net profit has been rising QoQ over the past eight quarters. In Q3, its net profit rose 13.5% to Rs 228.2 crores, while revenue increased by 4.9%. The company has also announced an upcoming dividend of Rs 19 per share due on February 2. Despite the recent rise in share price due to strong results, Coforge’s TTM PE ratio is trading below its 3-year average PE ratio and its sector PE ratio.

    During the Q3FY23 earnings call, Coforge’s management raised its FY23 revenue growth guidance by two percentage points to 22%. It also said that the topline growth in FY24 would be around 15% despite the threat of recession in major economies like the US and Europe. This optimism by management is backed by strong deal wins, which stood at $345 million (highest-ever), up 40% YoY. Another positive factor is Coforge’s attrition rate remaining the lowest in the industry at 15.8% in Q3.

    In terms of the geo mix, America makes up over half of the company’s Q3 revenue. Notably, growth from this region is only marginally higher at 1.9% QoQ, impacted by furloughs. However, top-line growth is driven by EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) and ROW, which have grown 6.7% and 5% respectively.

    1. IDFC First Bank: This bank stock has not particularly enthused investors, even though its net profit doubled (2.15X YoY) to Rs 605 crore in Q3FY23. However, it beats Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 7.9%. Over the week, the stock has gone down nearly 4% in trade. It fell nearly 3.5% on Wednesday as the market traded lower. However, the stock has grown more than 55% in the past six months as it reports a continuous improvement in its financials. The bank shows up in a screener of undervalued growth stocks.

    IDFC’s net interest income has surged 28% YoY to Rs 3,285 crore in Q3. Asset quality also sees vast improvement, with gross and net NPAs falling 100 bps YoY to 2.96% and 71 bps to 1.03% respectively. It shows up in a screener of stocks with good quarterly growth in recent results. Although provisions increased 15% YoY in Q3, causing the provision coverage ratio (PCR) to rise to 76.6%, the outlook remains positive as PCR on the higher side means that the bank is well buffered against bad assets. The bank’s PCR ratio has improved across all loan books – corporate, retail and commercial.

    Analysts from ICICI Securities and Motilal Oswal recommend the stock with a ‘Hold’ and ‘Buy’ ratings respectively. CLSA has also upgraded its rating to ‘Buy’ from ‘Outperform’. It expects the stock price to rise by 19% in the short to medium term. IDFC is firing on all cylinders with analysts expecting fee income to improve, and credit cost to lower in FY23-24E. Its management expects to achieve credit cost guidance of less than 1.5% for FY23. They also expect loan growth of 25% and maintain a net interest margin of 5.8-6%.

    1. Sona BLW Precision Forgings: This auto parts & equipment manufacturer rose over 5% on Wednesday after announcing its Q3FY23 results. Its net profit has risen 23.9% YoY to Rs 107.1 crore, beating Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates by 13.6%. The company beating the street’s estimates makes investors upbeat about the stock. Its revenue rose 38.6% YoY on the back of robust growth across all its business segments. Given its healthy performance, the stock shows up in a screener for companies with revenue increasing sequentially for the past four quarters. Also, the stock is currently in the PE Buy zone.

    The firm’s robust order book growth has been instrumental in its Q3 performance. Its order book touched 23,800 crore, rising 16.1% QoQ and 35.2% YoY, with new deal wins worth Rs 4,200 crore. During the quarter, Sona BLW won its single largest new order worth Rs 3,350 crore from a global electric vehicle original equipment manufacturer (EV OEM). The project is estimated to be executed in 8-9 years, implying an annual revenue potential of Rs 400 crore, according to ICICI Securities.

    The company’s EBITDA margin expanded by 76 bps YoY to 27.2%, led by a favourable product mix as its Battery Electric Vehicle segment’s contribution to revenue moved up to 26%. The firm aims to increase market share in the high-margin EV segment in the coming quarters, which it believes will improve profitability and revenue growth. ICICI Securities expects Sona BWL’s margins to rise till FY25 due to an increasing mix of EV orders, falling commodity costs, rising scale and benefits from the Production Linked Incentive (PLI)  scheme.

    1. KEI Industries: This electrical stock has increased by 32.79% CAGR in the past five years, beating the broader Nifty 500 index by a huge margin. The stock has risen 1.4% after the Q3FY23 results announcement. KEI industries is among India’s top three wire and cable manufacturers, with a product portfolio ranging from housing wires to Extra High Voltage (EHV) cables. KEI derives 85% of its revenue from cables, 10% from EPC, and 5% from wires.

      In Q3, KEI industries reported 14% revenue growth, led by 20% increase in cable business volume. Its EBITDA margin has expanded 90 bps YoY. The management foresees no immediate impact of ongoing raw material cost volatility and expects channel inventory to remain at normal levels. PAT has grown 26.96% YoY to Rs 1,288 crore and the management guides 18-20% revenue growth in FY23, backed by pending orders to the tune of Rs 3,400 crore. Pending orders also rose by 14% QoQ in Q3FY23.The stock shows up in ascreener for companies that are efficiently managing assets to generate profits.

    Management has guided for a Rs 500 crore plus order book in FY24 with 15% growth in revenue in FY24. The EBITDA margin is expected to be maintained at current levels of 11%. It also sees a capital expenditure to the tune of Rs 250 crore in FY24. Of this, Rs 50 crore is earmarked for brownfield expansion and the rest would be for working capital requirements.

    BOB Capitalsees structural growth drivers for KEI as the margin-accretive retail business scales up and as its core cables and EPC businesses benefit from sectoral tailwinds in the form of increased private and public capex.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    26 Jan 2023
    Screener of the week: PLI beneficiary companies that are rising ahead of the Union Budget

    Screener of the week: PLI beneficiary companies that are rising ahead of the Union Budget

    By Abdullah Shah

    Just days ahead of the Union Budget, we take a look at companies that are benefitting from the government’s PLI scheme. This screener reflects stocks that have risen over the past month ahead of the budget, which are beneficiaries of PLI schemes.

    Textile stocks like SVP Global Textiles, Donear Industries and Rajesh Exports are three of the 61 applicants approved under the PLI scheme and have risen the highest over the past month. The government has proposed an expected investment of Rs 19,077 crore from the applicants, with a projected turnover of Rs 1.8 lakh crore and proposed employment of 2.4 lakh. 

    In Metals & mining, Sunflag Iron & Steel and Lloyds Metal & Energy have been approved. While Sunflag Iron & Steel rose 40.3% over the past month, outperforming the sector by 27 percentage points, Lloyds Metal & Energy went up 39.4%, outperforming the sector by 26.1 percentage points.

    Surya Roshni from the general industrials sector has committed an investment of Rs 25.4 crore towards the PLI scheme. The stock has risen 37.1% over the past month, outperforming the sector by 30.7 percentage points. 

    You can find more screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    25 Jan 2023
    Chart of the week: India’s ten highest-paid CEOs

    Chart of the week: India’s ten highest-paid CEOs

    By Abdullah Shah

    Chief Executive Officer (CEO) salaries are a hot topic and closely followed by both investors and analysts. An extremely generous pay package can be routine for an industry, or a red flag for a low-performing company, suggesting corporate governance norms in the business are weak. 

    In this edition of chart of the week, we look at India’s 10 highest-paid CEOs and their remuneration as a percentage of the company’s net profit, according to Trendlyne’s new CEO Salary dashboard. 

    This interactive dashboard on Trendlyne looks at the total remuneration of senior employees (including CEOs and directors) in the industry. The remuneration is inclusive of benefits like ESOPs.

    The IT sector is known for highly paid CEOs and it is reflected in the chart as well. Six of the 10 highest-paid CEOs are from the IT sector. Yashish Dahiya, Chairman, Executive Director and CEO of loss-making PB Fintech (PolicyBazaar), tops the list with a remuneration of Rs 613.8 crore. It constituted 39.6% of the company’s annual revenue in FY22 (keep in mind ESOPs are a big part of remuneration for listed startups, and the value of shares is tied to company performance). The company posted losses during the same period. As per the company’s FY22 annual report, in the scenario of the company incurring losses, Yashish Dahiya is subject to receive ESOP 2020 and 2021 as minimum remuneration. 

    Vinay Vinod Sanghi, Chief Managing Director and CEO of CarTrade Tech, received a remuneration of Rs 176.6 crore, which comes to almost half of the company’s annual revenue in FY22.

    Thierry Delaporte, Managing Director and CEO of Wipro, got Rs 79.8 crore after an increment of 24% in 2022. Salil S Parekh, Managing Director and CEO of Infosys, got a remuneration of Rs 71 crore after four consecutive increments of 327.9%, 1.2%, 188.3% and 43% in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively. Infosys used to be known in the industry for its lower pay scale for management, with the founders arguing that the CEO salary relative to the median employee shouldn’t be too high. That has clearly changed - Parekh is one of the highest paid CEOs in India.

    CP Gurnani, Managing Director and CEO of Tech Mahindra, received Rs 62.7 crore, which constituted 1.1% of the company’s net profit in FY22. He received two increments of 304.5% in 2021 and 335.4% in 2022. Sandeep Kalra, Executive Director and CEO of Persistent Systems, earned Rs 46.9 crore, which was 6.8% of the company’s net profit. 

    Two CEOs from the 2-3 wheeler industry also feature in the top 10 list. Pawan Munjal, Chairman and CEO of Hero MotoCorp, earned a remuneration of Rs 84.4 crore, constituting 3.6% of the company’s profit. Managing Director and CEO of Bajaj Auto, Rajiv Bajaj, received Rs 45.6 crore constituting 0.74% of the company's profit.

    Another notable name in the list is Punit Goenka, Managing Director and CEO of Zee Entertainment Enterprises. He received a remuneration of Rs 41.1 crore, making up 4.3% of the company’s net profit. After taking a pay cut during the Covid pandemic in 2020, he received two increments of 46% in 2021 and 212.2% in 2022.

    You can find more details on the remuneration of CEOs and directors on Tredlyne’s newly launched Salary Dashboard. 

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    The Baseline
    24 Jan 2023
    Five analyst picks this week in the tech sector

    Five analyst picks this week in the tech sector

    By Abhiraj Panchal
    1. Cyient: IDBI Capital maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this IT Consulting & Software company with a target price of Rs 1,045. This implies an upside of 19.6%. In Q3FY23, the firm’s net profit surged 97.2% QoQ to Rs 156 crore and revenue grew 15.9% QoQ.

    Analysts Devang Bhatt and Dhawal Doshi expect the services segment’s revenue to grow 25% YoY in FY23 on the back of organic and inorganic levers. They anticipate “it to be driven by double-digit growth in aerospace, communication, medical, mining, automotive and healthcare business verticals”. The analysts also expect the firm’s cost realisation initiatives to expand margins further in the coming quarters.

    However, Bhatt and Doshi believe Cyient’s margin in FY23 will be impacted by the one-offs in litigation and acquisition-related charges. But they expect the margins in FY24 and FY25 to improve due to the absence of one-off costs and easing of supply-side challenges. The analysts anticipate the IT firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 19.9% over FY22-25.

    1. Wipro: ICICI Direct upgrades its rating to a ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold on this software services company with a target price of Rs 455. This indicates an upside of 12.9%. In Q3FY23, the company reported a 14.8% QoQ growth in net profit to Rs 3,052.9 crore, while its revenue grew by 3.6% QoQ to Rs 23,867.3 crore. According to analysts Sameer Pardikar and Sujay Chavan, “Wipro reported weak Q3 results on the revenue front.”

    The total contract value for the quarter was $4.3 billion. The analysts think that sustainability of the same in the subsequent quarters will likely provide revenue visibility for FY24. They also believe that Wipro’s decision to change leadership in areas of America, West Asia, Japan and Australia will provide a stimulus to revenue growth in the regions. Pardikar and Chavan remain optimistic about the stock on the back of higher penetration in Europe, client mining and acquisition of new logos.

    1. Infosys: HDFC Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this big-4 IT company with a target price of Rs 1,815, indicating an upside of 18.9%. In Q3FY23, Infosys’ profit grew by 9.4% QoQ to Rs 6,586 crore and its revenue increased by 5.3% to Rs 39,087 crore. Analysts Apurva Prasad, Amit Chandra and Vinesh Vala said that revenue growth was ahead of consensus, supported by higher pass-through revenue, which was linked to integrated deals. The IT company has increased its revenue guidance for Q4FY23 to 16-16.5%. 

    The total contract value for Q3FY23 was $3.3 billion. The analysts are also positive about the company as they expect a recovery in North America and strong traction in the energy & utilities, and manufacturing verticals. Out of the 32 large deals that Infosys won, 25 were from North America. “Acceleration in vendor consolidation and cost take-out deals has led to  growth in its core services (vs historical decline),” they added.

    1. Just Dial: ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this internet technology company with a target price of Rs 750. This indicates an upside of 14.2%. In Q3FY23, the firm’s net profit grew 44.4% QoQ to Rs 75.3 crore, and revenue rose by 7.9% QoQ.

    Analysts Abhisek Banerjee and Heenal Gada believe the stock is trading at an attractive valuation after falling nearly 34% over the past year. They believe this correction in price is an overreaction and are positive on the company as it has beaten their EBIT margin estimates in Q3. Its margin expanded by 400 bps QoQ to 12.3%, beating the analysts’ estimate of 9.4%.

    Banerjee and Gada believe the sustained and sequential improvement in collections indicates an improvement in demand for the firm’s services. They add, “Just Dial has ~26% revenue exposure to the B2B e-commerce segment. We believe this is likely to be the primary growth driver for the company going forward.” The analysts expect the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 100.8% over FY23-25. However, the company’s Trendlyne Durability Score is 45, indicating average financial health - the company has negative net cash flow and weak ROE. 

    1. HCL Technologies: Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this technology company with a target price of Rs 1,270, indicating an upside of 14.6%. For Q3FY23, the company reported a profit of Rs 4,096 crore, a 17.4% QoQ increase, and revenue of Rs 26,960 crore (in line with the brokerage’s estimate), an 8.2% QoQ rise. Analysts Mukul Garg, Prakash Bhanushali and Pritesh Thakkar said, “Strong revenue growth guidance of 16-16.5% YoY in CC terms for services should address investor concerns on the company’s growth.”

    “Despite seasonality and a tough demand environment, HCL maintained its growth momentum in both IT Services, and engineering research and development verticals,” the analysts added. They believe higher exposure to cloud offers a better resilience to its portfolio in the current context, with higher demand for cloud, network, security, and digital workplace services.

    Remaining optimistic, analysts said, “Strong sequential growth within services, robust headcount addition, healthy deal wins, and a solid pipeline indicate an improved outlook.” 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    21 Jan 2023
    Chart of the week: Stocks that saw promoters raise their stake: Did they beat the index?

    Chart of the week: Stocks that saw promoters raise their stake: Did they beat the index?

    By Abdullah Shah

    Investors track promoter holding changes in companies closely. An increase in promoter holding, they argue, reflects the promoter’s confidence in the company, and share purchases by promoters often trigger follow-on buying by retail investors and traders. 

    This week, we look at stocks that have seen the highest increases in promoter holding over the past two years. These companies' promoter holdings also increased QoQ in the past quarter. Out of the 13 Nifty 500 stocks, seven have risen over the same time period while six have beaten the Nifty 50 index. 

    Godrej Agrovet witnessed its promoter holding rise the most among Nifty 500 companies in the past two years. The other agricultural products company’s promoters increased their holding by 4 percentage points to 74.1% over. However, the stock has fallen 16.3% in the same period. Godrej Industries bought 1.1 crore shares ( or 5.6% stake) in the company, taking its holding to 64.9%. 

    Over the past two years, promoters of ACC have increased their holding by 2.2 percentage points to 56.6%. Endeavour Trade And Investment bought 2.2% stake (or 40.6 lakh shares) in the cement & cement products company during. The stock rose 34.3%, beating the Nifty 50 index by 8.7 percentage points.  

    Balrampur Chini Mills saw its promoters increase their holding by 1.2 percentage points to 42.4% over the same period. The sugar stock has risen 123.7%, beating the Nifty 50 by 98.1 percentage points. Vardhman Textiles’s promoter holding also rose 100 bps to 63.9%. Vardhman Holdings bought a 1.1% stake (6.7 crore shares) in the textiles company. The stock has risen 48.3% over the period, beating the Nifty 50 by 22.8 percentage points.

    A few other notable stocks in the screener and chart are Chambal Fertilisers Chemicals, JM Financial, Bajaj Holdings and Investment and Bajaj Auto. A Clearly the companies with the largest increase in promoter holding have not necessarily beaten the Nifty 50 index over the past two years. Promoters generally only increase their holding after being sure that the company will have a strong fundamental performance, but industry dynamics can change (as was the case for two-wheeler company Bajaj Auto) hitting share prices.  

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