Chart of the week: Centre expects fiscal deficit to fall to 5.9% of GDP in FY24

By Abdullah Shah

As global economic growth slows down, India’s GDP growth in FY23 is also expected to slow down to 7% from 8.7% in FY22. GDP growth in FY24 is expected to further reduce, to 6.5%.

This is important for India’s Budget as the fiscal deficit is expressed as % of GDP. As the GDP estimate is revised downward, the Centre will have to reduce the expenditure to reduce the fiscal deficit.

The fiscal deficit as % of GDP rose to a record high of 9.5% in FY21, and Nirmala Sitharaman, the Finance Minister, had committed to reducing it. In line with the guidance, fiscal deficit as a % of GDP fell to 6.4% in FY23. The centre aims to further lower this to 5.9% of the GDP in FY24 and eventually to 4.5% of the GDP by FY25.

In order to achieve a lower fiscal deficit in FY24, the government has planned to reduce expenditure on subsidies and pensions while keeping the spending on rural development constant. However, the Centre continues to focus on transport and defence segments as its spending is expected to rise 32.4% and 5.7% in these segments respectively, when compared to FY23 revised estimates. In addition, interest expenditure is also expected to rise 14.8% in FY24.

Revised estimates of subsidies for food and fertilisers overshot FY23 budgeted amounts as the government had to boost support via free food grains and fertiliser subsidies amid higher commodity inflation.

In FY24, the government has decided to curb the expenditure on subsidies with an estimated spend of Rs 2 lakh crore on food (-31.3%) and Rs 1.8 lakh crore on fertilisers (-22.2%). The estimated expenditure on pensions has also been marginally reduced to Rs 2.3 lakh crore in FY24 from the revised estimates of Rs 2.4 lakh crore in FY23.

The interest, transport and defence are the segments with the highest estimated expenditure in FY24. These segments contribute to 45.1% of the total estimated expenditure. The Centre has increased the estimated expenditure of interest to Rs 10.8 lakh crore in FY24 from t Rs 9.4 lakh crore in FY23 revised estimates.

The rise comes on the back of higher requirements for payment of interest on market loans, discount on Treasury Bills, Central Government securities issued by National Small Savings Fund and state provident funds.