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Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
12 Mar 2024
Market closes flat, Ion Exchange (India) wins a Rs 120 crore order from Saudi Arabia's Maaden

Nifty 50 closed at 22,335.70 (3.1, 0.0%), BSE Sensex closed at 73,667.96 (165.3, 0.2%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,171.40 (-117.4, -0.6%). Market breadth is sharply down. Of the 2,104 stocks traded today, 242 showed gains, and 1,850 showed losses.

The benchmark Nifty 50 index fell from its day high and closed flat. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 2.6% and closed at 13.6 points. Rail Vikas Nigam bagged two orders worth Rs 532.2 crore from Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Prasaran Nigam and Maharashtra Metro Rail Corp.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the red, underperforming the benchmark index. Nifty Metal and Nifty Media closed sharply below their Monday close.  According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Software & Services emerged as the top-performing sector of the day in a weak market, with a rise of 0.5%.

Major Asian indices trade in the green, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rising over 3%. Major European indices trade higher amid positive global cues. US index futures traded higher, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures trade in the green after rising 0.7% on a volatile day on Monday.

  • Apollo Tyres sees a short buildup in its March 28 future series as its open interest rises 7.1% with a put-call ratio of 0.4.

  • Ion Exchange (India) wins a Rs 120 crore order from Saudi Arabia's Maaden to set up a water treatment plant, including a demineralization plant.

  • PSU banks like Indian Bank, UCO Bank, Bank of Maharashtra and Punjab & Sind Bank plunge more than 3% in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty PSU Bank index are also trading in the red, causing it to fall more than 2%.

  • KNR Constructions receives a Rs 1,163 crore order from the Public Health & Municipal Engineering Department (PHMED), Telangana. The order involves water supply projects in 26 ULBs (urban local bodies) and sewerage projects in four ULBs.

  • Sanghi Industries' promoter Ambuja Cements plans to sell a 2% stake (51.7 lakh shares) in the company in FY24 and another 2% in FY25 to meet SEBI norms.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam bags two orders worth Rs 532.2 crore from Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Prasaran Nigam and Maharashtra Metro Rail Corp. The orders involve constructing eight 132 kV transmission lines in Rajasthan and an elevated metro line in Pune.

  • Popular Vehicles and Services' Rs 601.6 crore IPO gets bids for 0.3X the available 1.4 crore shares on offer on the first day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 0.5X the available 72.8 lakh shares on offer.

  • Century Plyboards (India) appoints Sumant Wattas as Chief Executive Officer, effective April 1, 2024.

  • The International Finance Corporation (IFC) sells its remaining shares (2.4% stake) in Religare Enterprises between January 2 and February 29.

  • HDFC Securities keeps its 'Add' rating on Happiest Minds Technologies with a target price of Rs 935. This indicates a potential upside of 15.8%. The brokerage cites the company's quick recovery in discretionary spending and strategic acquisitions as key drivers for revenue growth. It expects the company's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 16.2% over FY23-26.

  • Rakesh Gangwal, promoter of InterGlobe Aviation, sells a 5.8% stake (around 2.3 crore shares) worth around Rs 6,785.7 crore in the company in a bulk deal on Monday. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley Asia picks up a 0.5% stake in the company.

  • Aurionpro Solutions wins an order worth Rs 100 crore from State Bank of India, for the licensing, implementation and support of iCashpro+, its next-gen cash management and transaction banking platform.

  • LIC's group premium doubles YoY to Rs 14,914.9 crore in February. The total premium for the same period increases by 67.5% YoY to Rs 19,896 crore.

  • Realty stocks like Swan Energy, Prestige Estates Projects, Mahindra Lifespace Developers and Macrotech Developers plunge more than 3% in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Realty are also trading in the red, causing the index to fall more than 3%.

  • Spicejet falls as two Senior Executives, Chief Operating Officer Arun Kashyap and Chief Commercial Officer Shilpa Bhatia, reportedly resign.

  • Pitti Engineering acquires a 100% stake in Bagadia Chaitra Industries for Rs 124.9 crore. The company also plans to invest Rs 40 crore in Bagadia Chaitra to repay existing debt.

  • ITC declines amid reports that British American Tobacco plans to sell shares worth around $2-3 billion in block deals this week.

  • R K Swamy’s shares debut on the bourses at a 13.2% discount to the issue price of Rs 288. The Rs 423.6 crore IPO has received bids for 25.9 times the total shares on offer.

  • Bharat Highways InvIT’s shares debut on the bourses at a 1.1% premium to the issue price of Rs 100. The Rs 2,500 crore IPO has received bids for 8 times the total shares on offer.

  • HIL rises sharply as its board approves the acquisition of a 100% stake in Crestia Polytech, Topline Industries, Aditya Polytechnic, Sainath Polymers and Aditya Industries for Rs 265 crore.

  • The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) data shows a 10.8% increase in February auto wholesales to 3,70,786 units, driven by positive consumer sentiment and rural market recovery. Two-wheeler wholesales rise 34.6% YoY to 15.2 lakh units and passenger car wholesales improve 8.3% YoY.

  • Aditya Birla Capital rises after announcing the merger of its arm, Aditya Birla Finance, with itself, subject to regulatory approvals.

  • HG Infra Engineering is rising after receiving a letter of award (LoA) from the National Highways Authority of India for an order worth Rs 862.1 crore. The order is for the construction of 4-lane and 6-lane highways in Andhra Pradesh in the next 24 months.

  • Peterhouse Investments India, promoter of Usha Martin, sells a 0.2% stake in the company. It now holds a 5.6% stake.

  • Jupiter Wagons bags and order worth Rs 957 crore from the Ministry of Railways to manufacture and supply 2,237 BOSM wagons.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 22,363.90 (31.3, 0.1%), BSE Sensex was trading at 73,494.20 (-8.4, 0.0%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 20,303.25 (14.5, 0.1%).

  • Market breadth is balanced. Of the 1,858 stocks traded today, 894 were on the uptrend, and 909 went down.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Linde India Ltd. (6,320.25, 7%), Balkrishna Industries Ltd. (2,344.40, 4.4%) and Torrent Power Ltd. (1,198.70, 3.4%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Patanjali Foods Ltd. (1,377.85, -7.3%), UCO Bank (51.65, -6.1%) and Indian Bank (517.90, -5.5%).

Volume Rockets

15 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included HEG Ltd. (1,808.85, 7.9%), Linde India Ltd. (6,320.25, 7%) and Ingersoll-Rand (India) Ltd. (3,699.35, 4.3%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Swan Energy Ltd. (546, -18.5%), Patanjali Foods Ltd. (1,377.85, -7.3%) and Macrotech Developers Ltd. (1,121.05, -5.1%).

IndiaMART InterMESH Ltd. (2,614.65, 2.6%) was trading at 11.5 times of weekly average. Metropolis Healthcare Ltd. (1,632, 0.5%) and United Breweries Ltd. (1,718.25, 1.1%) were trading with volumes 6.1 and 5.7 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

3 stocks overperformed with 52 week highs, while 13 stocks tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (3,242.95, 0.8%), Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd. (8,270.40, 2.1%) and Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. (4,192.25, 1.7%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Atul Ltd. (6,057.65, 0.7%) and La Opala RG Ltd. (318.80, -2.5%).

4 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including HEG Ltd. (1,808.85, 7.9%) and 3M India Ltd. (30,843.20, 2.5%). 16 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd. (81.45, -4.9%) and Equitas Small Finance Bank Ltd. (92.95, -4.1%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch US
Trendlyne Marketwatch US
12 Mar 2024

Markets closed down today . Dow Jones was trading at 38782.20 (-10.3, 0.0%) , S&P 500 was trading at 5119.56 (-1.1, 0.0%) while the broader US Tech Composite was trading at 16038.10 (-1.0, 0.0%)

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Affimed N.V. (5.49, 800%), Power & Digital Infrastructure Acquisition II Corp - Units (1 Ord Class A & 1/2 War) (39.30, 264.9%) and Power & Digital Infrastructure Acquisition II Corp - Ordinary Shares - Class A (35.13, 237.8%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include L Catterton Asia Acquisition Corp - Ordinary Shares - Class A (0, -100%), Frontier Investment Corp - Ordinary Shares - Class A (0, -100%) and Gracell Biotechnologies Inc - ADR (0, -100%).

IXIX-CFD: highs, lows and moving averages

21 stocks outperformed, hitting 52 week highs, Stocks touching their year highs included - WestRock Co (46.43, 1.9%), Marathon Petroleum Corp (181.14, 0.9%), Otis Worldwide Corp (96.29, -1.4%) and DaVita Inc (136.22, 0.8%).

18 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Moderna Inc (113.17, 9.8%) and Estee Lauder Cos., Inc. - Ordinary Shares - Class A (154.38, 3.3%).

4 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Verisk Analytics Inc (237.14, 0.3%) and Coterra Energy Inc (26.45, 0.3%).

117 stocks are currently overbought in RSI including Moderna Inc (113.17, 9.8%), Estee Lauder Cos., Inc. - Ordinary Shares - Class A (154.38, 3.3%) and Las Vegas Sands Corp (52.87, 2.6%).

129 stocks are currently oversold in RSI including Verisk Analytics Inc (237.14, 0.3%) and Coterra Energy Inc (26.45, 0.3%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
11 Mar 2024
Market trades lower, Solar Industries India wins an export order worth Rs 455 crore
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,332.65 (-160.9, -0.7%), BSE Sensex closed at 73,502.64 (-616.8, -0.8%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,288.75 (-146.1, -0.7%). Market breadth is moving down. Of the 2,115 stocks traded today, 308 were on the uptrend, and 1,780 went down.

Indian indices extended the losses from the afternoon session and closed in the red. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose by 2.9% and closed at 14 points. REC signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Rajasthan government to invest Rs 20,000 crore per annum in power and non-power infrastructure segments. The NBFC will invest this amount for the next six years, taking its total investment in the state to Rs 1.2 lakh crore by 2023.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed lower following the benchmark index. Nifty Healthcare closed higher than Thursday’s closing level. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, retailing emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 0.6%. 

Most European indices trade in the red. US indices futures trade lower, indicating a negative start. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it would be appropriate to talk about interest rate cuts only after confirmation that inflation has been under control. The US CPI inflation data for February, due on Tuesday, is expected to show a 0.4% increase.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Godfrey Phillips India, Tata Chemicals, Tata Investment Corp and Rallis India are in the overbought zone.

  • Solar Industries India wins an export order worth Rs 455 crore for supplying items to be used in defence products over the next two years.

  • Alembic Pharmaceuticals is falling as the US FDA concludes its inspection of the company's oncology formulation facility at Panelav with four observations.

  • NBCC (India)'s arm HSCC (India) wins multiple construction orders worth Rs 367.9 crore from Medical Education & Ayush, Maharashtra, and Power Grid Corp India.

  • REC is rising as it reportedly signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the government of Rajasthan to invest Rs 20,000 crore per annum in power and non-power infrastructure segments. The NBFC will invest this amount for the next six years, taking its total investment in the state to Rs 1.2 lakh crore by 2023.

  • Gopal Snacks' Rs 650 lakh IPO gets bids for 9.0X the available 1.2 crore shares on offer on the third day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 4.0X the available 59.4 lakh shares on offer.

  • PNC Infratech bags an order worth Rs 1,174 crore from MP Road Development Corp to construct 40.9 km of the Western Bhopal bypass.

  • Coal India signs an agreement with Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam (RRVUNL) to explore opportunities for securing power supply in Rajasthan. Among the five projects identified, the company's main goal will be to investigate the viability of establishing 4,100 MW of projects through a joint venture company.

  • State Bank of India falls as the Supreme Court dismisses its extension plea and directs the bank to disclose electoral bond details by March 12.

  • Media stocks like Sun TV Network, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, PVR Inox, Network18 Media & Investment and Saregama India are falling in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Media index are also trading in the red, causing it to fall more than 2%.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam rises sharply as it bags four orders worth Rs 2,092.3 crore from different clients. The largest order, worth Rs 888.6 crore, involves developing power distribution infrastructure in Himachal Pradesh. The second largest, worth Rs 543 crore, is for the construction of five elevated metro stations in Indore.

  • CLSA maintains its 'Outperform' rating on Maruti Suzuki India with an upgraded target price of Rs 12,890. The brokerage expects the firm's market share to increase and the passenger vehicle segment to revive in FY26. It also foresees a rise in the share of CNG vehicles.

  • Power Grid Corp signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Prasaran Nigam (RRVPNL) to form a joint venture (JV) for the development of an Intra State Transmission System. The JV will undertake projects worth up to Rs 10,000 crore.

  • Hindustan Aeronautics hits its all-time high of Rs 3,428 as the government approves the acquisition of 34 new advanced light helicopters (Dhruv choppers), manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics.

  • Dilip Buildcon receives a Rs 548 crore construction order from the National Highways Authority of India to improve the Thoppur Ghat Section's alignment on the Dharmapuri Salem section of NH44 in Tamil Nadu.

  • B Thiagarajan, MD of Blue Star, expects strong demand during the summer season. He notes that the room air-conditioner (RAC) category is starting to become more of a need than a luxury and hopes to end FY24 strongly. Thiagarajan also anticipates competition to remain high in the RAC space.

  • JM Financial falls as the Securities and Exchange Board of India bars the company from taking new mandates as a lead manager for the public issue of debt securities.

  • Infibeam Avenues reaches a new 52-week high of Rs 42.5 as it launches its new video AI platform, THEIA. THEIA offers organizations video AI analysis for application in areas like traffic management, sports analytics, crowd control, insurance claims, and retail stores.

  • NLC India surges as it signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the government of Rajasthan to form a joint venture (JV) for a 125 MW lignite-based power plant and a 1,000 MW solar power plant. The company expects an investment of Rs 7,000 crore for these projects.

  • Reports suggest that around 2.6 crore shares (6.7% equity) of InterGlobe Aviation, amounting to Rs 7,813 crore, change hands in a large deal. Its promoters are the likely sellers.

  • DB Realty falls despite its board of directors approving the issue of equity shares worth Rs 1,500 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP). The board has set a floor price of Rs 270.9 per share for the issue.

  • HG Infra Engineering wins a Rs 610.1 crore order from the National Highways Authority of India for the construction of a four-lane elevated corridor in Jharkhand.

  • Sagista Realty Advisors, promoter of Sapphire Foods India, sells a 0.4% stake in the company. It now holds a 3.1% stake.

  • Torrent Power rises as it receives a letter of award (LoA) worth Rs 1,540 crore from Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution through an auction. The order involves setting up 306 MW grid-connected solar power projects across 48 locations in Nashik, with the generated power to be procured by the government at Rs 3.1 per kWh.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 22497.70 (4.2, 0.0%) , BSE Sensex was trading at 74145.86 (26.5, 0.0%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 20450.40 (15.6, 0.1%)

  • Market breadth is horizontal. Of the 1922 stocks traded today, 894 were in the positive territory and 939 were negative.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Linde India Ltd. (5,906.80, 5.9%), InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (3,218.55, 3.6%) and Supreme Industries Ltd. (4,027.95, 3.4%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include UCO Bank (55, -4.4%), NMDC Ltd. (228.85, -4.2%) and Vodafone Idea Ltd. (13.75, -3.5%).

Volume Shockers

27 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Godfrey Phillips India Ltd. (3,637.05, 10.3%), Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd. (1,276.10, 8.2%) and KEC International Ltd. (748.40, 6.6%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were PCBL Ltd. (250.25, -6.8%), CreditAccess Grameen Ltd. (1,322.20, -5.3%) and Pfizer Ltd. (4,404.45, -2.7%).

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (3,218.55, 3.6%) was trading at 21.4 times of weekly average. Zydus Wellness Ltd. (1,591.90, 0.6%) and Kalpataru Projects International Ltd. (1,107.45, 5.4%) were trading with volumes 13.3 and 11.7 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

31 stocks took off, crossing 52 week highs, while 11 stocks hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Bajaj Auto Ltd. (8,659.40, -2.5%), Bank of Baroda (277.40, -1.5%) and Bharti Airtel Ltd. (1,196.60, -0.3%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - La Opala RG Ltd. (326.90, -2.7%) and Timken India Ltd. (2,565.55, -1.2%).

6 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Supreme Industries Ltd. (4,027.95, 3.4%) and Shoppers Stop Ltd. (770, 2.4%). 14 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including JM Financial Ltd. (79.30, -9.8%) and Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd. (2,700.25, -5.1%).

 
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The Baseline
08 Mar 2024
Five Interesting Stocks Today

1. Oil India:

This oil exploration and production company has risen by 15.3% in the past week, hitting its all-time high of Rs 647 on Wednesday. The surge followed the announcement of a second interim dividend of Rs 8.5 per share for FY24, which will be paid by April 7, 2024. 

In the past month, the company also inked a pact with The Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore to explore opportunities in green hydrogen, including green ammonia/green methanol, and other derivatives. 

In July 2020, Oil India announced plans to triple the capacity of its Numaligarh Refinery (NRL) to 9 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). To date, the project has incurred a capex of Rs 15,000 crore, out of the planned Rs 28,000 crore. 

According to the management, 55-60% of the project is done, with completion expected by July 2025. After the expansion, analysts expect the company’s EBITDA to exceed  Rs 9,000 crore annually, a significant jump from the current annual EBITDA of Rs 5,319 crore.

In Q3FY24, the firm’s revenue increased by 21.8% YoY, while profit grew by 2.8% YoY. Its oil and gas production rose by 6.1% YoY and 2% YoY, respectively. The management has guided oil and gas production to grow at 8% and 26% CAGR respectively over FY24-26, led by increased drilling activities. Managing Director Ranjit Rath said, “Oil India will drill around 60 wells in all its assets in FY25, which is 33.3% higher compared to the 45 wells drilled in FY24.”

Sharekhan has upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’, citing its reasonable valuation. According to analysts, current oil/gas price regulations provide good earnings visibility, while the NRL expansion should create long-term value for the company. Oil India appears in a screener for stocks with analyst rating or target price upgrades in the past month.

2. Tata Motors:

This auto manufacturer rose 3.5% on Tuesday to hit an all-time high of Rs 1,065.6, following board approval to demerge its business into two listed companies. According to a regulatory filing on Monday, the commercial vehicle (CV) business will form one entity, while passenger vehicles (PV), electric vehicles (EV), and luxury cars under the Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) brand will be part of the second company.

In Q3FY24, Tata Motors’ consolidated net profit increased by 137.5% YoY to Rs 7,025 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 46.6%. Its revenue also went up by 25.1% YoY to Rs 1,12,076 crore, beating estimates marginally by 2%. Its EBITDA for the quarter on a consolidated basis stood at 14.3%, a 3.2% YoY increase. JLR was able to post the highest EBITDA margin among the three segments, at 16.2%, up 4.1% YoY. The EBITDA margins for Tata’s CV and PV units were 11.1% and 6.6% respectively.

Tata Motors had a net debt of Rs 29,200 crore at the end of Q3FY24. Its domestic business aims to become debt-free by FY24 end. JLR, with a net debt of Rs 16,600 crore, targets to be net cash positive by the end of FY25. In an exchange filing on Thursday, the company also announced a 2% price hike for its commercial vehicles to offset the impact of inflation on input costs. Post demerger, its CV entity can raise capital to support its electric bus segment.

“The demerger is a logical progression of the restructuring of the PV and EV businesses done earlier in 2022,” Tata Motors said in a press release. It expects this move to drive faster growth for each business line.

KR Choksey maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on Tata Motors, assigning the CV business an enterprise value of 14 times its EBITDA, at Rs 373 per share. The brokerage expects the PV business to command a premium of Rs 787 per share. With a target price of Rs 1,178, the stock has a potential upside of 13.4%.

3. Bharat Heavy Electricals: 

This heavy electrical equipment manufacturer has risen by 13.2% over the past week after announcing a joint venture (JV) with Coal India and an order win from NTPC. This helps the company appear in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry over the past quarter. 

The JV, formed on February 29, enters into the coal to chemicals business by setting up a coal to ammonium nitrate plant. The JV agreement outlines plans for an ammonium nitrate plant with a capacity of 2,000 tonnes per day, which uses BHEL’s in-house pressurized fluidized bed gasification (PFBG) technology. Coal India will supply the coal and use at least 75% of the ammonium nitrate produced, making it both a supplier and the main client.

BHEL also won an order from NTPC on Monday to set up two 800 MW thermal power plants for the Singrauli thermal power project (Stage-II) in Uttar Pradesh. The order is reportedly worth more than Rs 9,500 crore.

The company, however, posted a net loss of Rs 148.8 crore for the third consecutive quarter in Q3FY24, compared to a net profit in Q3FY23. The loss was due to increasing raw material costs, as well as finance and employee benefit expenses, combined with a weak product mix and a 32% rise in interest costs YoY to Rs 1,900 crore.

On the other hand, revenue increased by 4.6% YoY to Rs 5,273.5 crore during the quarter, owing to improvements in the power and industry segments. But BHEL’s net loss and revenue missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 240.8% and 6.2% respectively. 

Post-results, Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Reduce’ rating on the stock, with a target price of Rs 200 per share. This indicates a potential downside of 22.3%. The brokerage expects the company’s revenue to improve in the long term due to segment diversification, growth in thermal power orders, and expansion in the spares & services business. 

However, profitability is likely to be affected in the near term by its poor order completion rate, high raw material costs, and poor operational efficiency. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 21.8% over FY23-26.

4. Suven Pharmaceuticals: 

This pharma company rose by 9% on March 1 after announcing its merger with Cohance Lifesciences, to strengthen its position in the CDMO (contract development and manufacturing organisation) space. Like Suven, Cohance is a CDMO and API (active pharmaceutical ingredient) manufacturer. The merger is expected to be finalised in the next 12-15 months. 

The merger aims to enhance Suven’s overall capacity to approximately 2,650 kL(kilo litre) and expand product offerings to customers. This move aligns with the company’s goal to set up a billion-dollar CDMO platform. According to Annaswamy Vaidheesh, Executive Chairman, “Together, Cohance and Suven are about 50-60% of our $1 billion goal.”

The merged entity will be a diversified CDMO platform with three business units – Pharma CDMO, Specialty Chem CDMO, and API+ (including formulations). The CDMO segment will make up 56.2% of the business mix, and the API segment will account for 43.8%.

However, Suven’s share price had fallen over 5% post Q3FY24 results. Its net profit dropped by 56.6% YoY due to lower revenue and higher inventory costs. Revenue declined by 36.2% YoY to Rs 234.2 crore as both the specialty chemicals and pharma segments were impacted. According to the management, performance will remain muted for the next few quarters, owing to industry-wide destocking, especially in the specialty chemicals space. 

This is an industry-wide challenge. Specialty chemicals companies have been facing destocking challenges for several quarters, impacting margins and profits. Analysts expect a gradual recovery in demand as destocking runs its course. On the other hand, API manufacturers have seen improvements in recent quarters, thanks to the US generics market’s recovery, moderation in raw material costs, and new product launches. Analysts foresee a 15-17% YoY revenue growth for these companies in 2024, driven by new launches. They also predict volume growth and higher demand for generics and branded products. 

Geojit BNP Paribas highlights Suven Pharma’s focus on long-term growth through R&D, capacity expansions, and inorganic growth through mergers & acquisitions. However, it has a ‘Sell’ rating, citing higher valuations and ongoing cyclical headwinds. 

5. Larsen & Toubro: 

This construction & engineering company has risen by 6.7% over the past week, as it announced a couple of major order wins. It recently won an order worth Rs 1,000-2,500 crore from Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) to develop Process Gas Compressor (PGC) modules. Additionally, it has also signed a deal  worth Rs 5,000-10,000 crore with the Ministry of Defence to supply High Power Radars (HPR). 

In Q3FY24, L&T’s net profit grew by 15.5% YoY to Rs 2,947.4 crore and revenue increased by 18.7% YoY on the back of a 27.3% YoY increase in the infrastructure projects segment, and a 24% YoY growth in the energy segment. While the firm beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s revenue estimate by 2.5%, it missed net profit estimate by 14.7% due to cost pressures in legacy projects that are now nearing completion. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

The company had reported a 25% YoY growth in order inflows to Rs 75,990 crore in the quarter, with international orders making up 67% of the total. L&T's management expects to outperform its order inflow guidance of 12% for FY24. Due to robust order prospects, the management has revised its order inflow guidance for the year to 20%.

S.N. Subrahmanyan, Chairman & Managing Director of the firm, said, “Despite global volatility and supply chain constraints, our nine-month order inflow has exceeded the FY23 level, indicating strong performance. Our capex spends are improving in India and the Middle East, despite global macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility.”  

ICICI Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ for L&T with a target price of Rs 4,150. They say “We value L&T at an SOTP-based target price of Rs 4,160 (base business at 30x FY26E EPS) and consider it as the best capex play in the large-cap capital goods space.”

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

 
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The Baseline
08 Mar 2024
Which are the best and worst months for Indian stocks? | Screener: stocks outperforming their sectors
By Tejas MD

The Nifty 50 has been on a dizzying ride. Last week saw yet another record high for the index, and it has hit new all-time highs over the past three weeks.

The Nifty Smallcap 100 on the other hand, has declined for four consecutive weeks. Overall, the Nifty 50 has outperformed both small and mid-cap indices over the past month. This outperformance comes even as the regulator SEBI raised concerns about ‘froth’ building up in small and mid-cap stocks.

In response, the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) swung into action and asked MFs to implement safeguards to protect investors in mid and small-cap funds. This move could impact future fund inflows, and favour large-cap investments going forward. 

Is the Nifty 50 more likely to move up or down in the coming months? One way to figure out the possible direction, is to look at the historical price performance of the Nifty 50 and its sectoral indices. This helps identify the months and quarters usually preferred by investors.

In this week's Analyticks,

  • A dive into share price history: Best and worst performing months and quarters for Nifty 50 and its sectoral indices
  • Screener:Stocks outperforming their sectors with lower current PE ratios

Finding patterns in chaos: Best/worst performing month and quarter for Indian stocks

While it is hard to ‘time’ the market for gains, we can find patterns in how stock markets have performed historically. Trendlyne’s newly launched feature, ‘Share Price History’, helps analyse the daily, monthly and quarterly performance of stocks and indices. 

An analysis of over 18 years of data (2006 to Feb 2024) for the Nifty 50 and Nifty sector indices, reveals interesting trends. April is the best month for most indices with the highest average monthly gains. On the other hand, January and February have historically seen the highest monthly average losses. 

On average, most of the indices closed in the green in 13 out of 18 years in April. Nifty Auto closed higher in 16 of those 18 Aprils.

While February is usually the Nifty 50's worst-performing month, 2024 broke this pattern, as the benchmark index rose 1.2% in February. 

 April tends to be the best month for stocks, and February the worst

What drives these patterns? Why is April often the best-performing month, while February lags behind? To understand this, we explore the quarterly performance of these indices. 

The first quarter (Jan-Mar) is usually the worst-performing, as investors typically sell underperforming assets for tax-loss harvesting, to reduce capital gains taxes owed from selling profitable investments. So It’s not surprising that January and February are the weaker months of a financial year.

Stocks usually record negative returns in Q1 (Jan to Mar) 

But what makes April the best month for stocks? There may be a couple of reasons. First, after a typically weak March quarter, the market is primed for a rebound. Second, the previous financial year ends in March, leaving people with more disposable income to invest again in the new financial year (thanks to bonuses, lesser tax deductions, etc), pushing stock prices higher. 

PSU bank, oil & gas, realty, and auto sectors shine in the past quarter

As FY24 draws to a close, we look at the top four sectoral indices that have risen the most in the past quarter. 

The standout indices for the quarter are Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Oil and Gas, Nifty Realty and Nifty Auto. Each of these recorded gains not just in the past month, but also over the last quarter, six months, and year. 

Nifty PSU Bank rises the most in the past quarter, followed by Nifty Oil & Gas

Improving asset quality drives PSU banks higher, premiumization boosts auto sector

PSU stocks have been in the news lately with their stellar performance over the past year. The Nifty PSU Bank is the top-performing sectoral Nifty index, with a quarterly rise of 38.7%. This surge is partly from public sector banks posting strong Q3FY24 results on the back of higher interest income, lower credit costs, and improved asset quality. The top four performers in this index include Indian Overseas Bank, Punjab & Sind Bank, Punjab National Bank and UCO Bank.

Nifty Oil & Gas comes next, rising by 38% over the quarter. The aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022 led to an increase in gross refining margins (GRMs) to $10.7/barrel, significantly above the long-term average of $5/barrel, as India started to import cheaper Russian crude in large amounts. The top four performers in this index include Oil India, Indian Oil Corp, Castrol India, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp.  


Oil India surges in the past quarter due to rising margin

The realty sector posted an average net profit growth of 201.7% YoY in Q3FY24, with a 21.4% YoY improvement in revenue amid strong customer demand. The top four performers of Nifty Realty include Swan Energy, Sobha, DLF and Godrej Properties. 

Nifty Auto rose 19.7% in the past quarter, also helped by strong Q3FY24 results. The sharp rise in net profit was driven by higher average selling prices, through product premiumization and lower raw material costs. The top four performers in this index include Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Bosch and MRF. 

When long-term performance is looked at, Bajaj Finance (+4,089%), Bajaj Finserv (+2,133.1%), Titan Company (+1,443.3%) and Adani Enterprises (+1,208.7%) come out on top in the Nifty 50. 

Note that as always, historical data provides insight into past performance, but it doesn’t guarantee future returns. 

Screener: Stocks outperforming their sectors with lower current PE ratios

Oil India, Swan Energy lead sector outperformance over the quarter

In this week’s screener, we look at stocks from the five best-performing sectoral Nifty indices (PSU Bank, Oil & Gas, Realty, Auto and Metal) over the past quarter. These stocks have not only outperformed their sectors over the past quarter and year but also have a TTM PE ratio lower than their sector averages.

The dominant sectors in the screener are oil & gas, banking & finance and auto & auto components. Major stocks featured are Oil India, Swan Energy, Indian Oil Corp, Punjab National Bank, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Canara Bank and Oil & Natural Gas Corp.

Oil India leads the pack with a 91% surge over the past quarter, outperforming the oil & gas sector by 59.5 percentage points during the same period. Its PE TTM stands at 11.5, which is lower than the sector’s PE of 22.1. This indicates that the stock is undervalued relative to its peers. The company’s revenue and net profit also increased by 21.8% YoY and 2.7% YoY respectively during Q3FY24.

Swan Energy follows with a 74.4% increase in its stock price over the past three months, outperforming the realty sector by 41.9 percentage points. Its PE TTM is 56.2, lower than its sectors’ PE of 69.9. The company’s revenue and net profit improved 16.1X YoY and 6.8X YoY respectively in Q3FY24. 

You can find more popular screeners here.