Oil India Ltd. share price target

Revenue increased by 8.0%YoY, due to higher prices and volume growth. However, EBITDA declined by 8.2%YoY

Crude oil production grew 3.8% QoQ to 0.9mmt, while gas production declined 5.9% QoQ to 0.8bcm. Oil price realization improved QoQ to USD77.9/bbl vs. USD62.8/bbl amid West Asia disruption. EBITDA stood at Rs18.2bn, missing est. (PLe Rs21.6bn, BBGe Rs20.0bn, +60.6% YoY, +39.1% QoQ) due to increase in other expenses which included inc forex loss of Rs4.9bn and a write off of Rs2.2bn, higher levies and contract costs. However, PAT stood at Rs17.9bn, beating est. due to high other income (PLe Rs16.5bn, BBGe Rs11.7bn, +12.5% YoY, +121.4% QoQ). Recent revision of royalty rates from 16.7% to 10% by MoPNG is positive for the upstream sector. We continue to remain...

expenses increased to Rs19bn from Rs12.9bn YoY led by Rs5bn of one-off items. Consequently, EBITDA declined to Rs13.1bn (-38.7% YoY, -1.2% QoQ; PLe: Rs15.9bn; BBGe: Rs17.0bn), while PAT came in at Rs8.1bn (-33.8% YoY, -22.6%...

Oil India’s (OINL) 3QFY26 revenue came in line with our estimate at INR49.2b. However, oil/gas sales came in 3%/1% below our estimate at 0.82mmt/0.66bcm. Oil realization was USD62.84/bbl (our estimate of USD62.1/bbl).

Oil India’s (OINL) 2QFY26 revenue came in line with our estimate at INR54.6b. However, oil/gas sales were 4%/2% below our estimate at 0.83mmt/0.66bcm.

Bangladesh. Total other expenditure stood at Rs16.9bn against Rs16bn in Q4FY25 and Rs14.5bn in Q1FY25. Due to the higher other expenditure, EBITDA declined 19% QoQ to Rs16.1bn (Ple Rs24.4bn, BBGe Rs22.8bn) despite only 9%...

Oil India’s (OINL) 4QFY25 revenue came in 7% above our estimate at INR55.2b (flat YoY), as both oil and gas sales stood above our est. Oil realization was USD74.9/bbl (vs our estimate of USD75.9/bbl).

realization and flat gas realization combined with growth in oil sales, sales grew by 2.8% QoQ. However, higher other expenditure led to EBITDA of Rs19.8bn, -7% QoQ (PLe Rs20.9bn, consensus Rs22.7bn). Lower than expected...

OIL India delivered a relatively muted Q3, with a 4%/23% YoY decline in standalone EBITDA/PAT to INR 22.6/INR 12.2bn, missing I-Sec’s estimates of INR 25.9/INR 16.2bn. Higher forex loss, lower other income and marginally lower gas realisations dragged earnings in Q3. Consol.

Oil India clocked Q3FY25 SA EBITDA of Rs21.3bn – a 5% miss, mainly on the 3% revenue miss due to lower realizations, crude sales. SA PAT of Rs12.2bn missed our estimates by 19% on lower Other Income.

Oil India clocked Q2FY25 SA EBITDA of Rs21.8bn – an 11% miss, mainly due to higher provisions and lower-than-expected output.

Less downstream demand due to a maintenance shutdown kept Oil India’s Q2 operational results muted. Ahead, we expect strong volume growth in the oil & gas segment.

Amid weak crude oil prices, the share price of Oil India (OINL) has declined 22% in the last 5 weeks. However, we reiterate our BUY rating on the stock.

At its analyst meet, Oil India (OINL) management reiterated its target of
increasing production from 6.5mmtoe in FY24 to 9mmtoe by FY26. Oil
production is expected to ramp up from 3.4mmt in FY24 to 3.8mmt and
more than 4mmt in FY25/FY26, while gas production is likely to be 5bcm by
FY26.

Oil India’s (OIL)’s adjusted EBITDA/PAT of INR 25.4bn/ INR 20.3bn jumped 8/13% YoY, with FY24 standalone EBITDA/PAT of INR 99/79bn (EBITDA flat YoY/PAT +16% YoY), respectively.