147.45 -1.55 (-1.04%)
3.1M NSE+BSE Volume
NSEJun 16, 2021 03:31 PM
The 14 reports from 7 analysts offering long term price targets for Oil India Ltd. have an average target of 112.57. The consensus estimate represents a downside of -23.66% from the last price of 147.45.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2021-03-24||Oil India Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||116.45||140.00||116.45 (26.62%)||Target met||Buy|
Improving realisation and rising production to support gas producers:We expect domestic gas price to have bottomed in 2HFY21 at USD 1.79/mmbtu and increase gradually to USD 2.6/mmbtu in 2HFY22 with the increase in global gas prices. Increasing gas prices and rising Brent crude oil price (already at USD 67/bbl in March 2021 up by 50% over 3QFY21) should aid earnings CAGR of 9-14% over FY21FY23E for ONGC and OIL. ONGC should also benefit from increase in gas production by up to 12mmscmd over FY2125E as production from its KG basin blocks ramp up. We upgrade ONGC and OIL to a BUY from REDUCE. On FY23E PER, ONGC trades at 6.7x and OIL at 3.7x. A reduction in spot LNG price, strong demand growth, and a sharp increase in domestic gas supply should drive gas utilities earnings growth and valuations. We expect the fall in spot LNG price by 80% from the recent peak in Feb 2021 to USD 6.6/mmbtu for May delivery to boost demand growth. We expect 12% CAGR in Indian natural gas demand over FY2123E to drive earnings growth of up to 25% CAGR (FY21FY23E). Further, it should lead to stock price upside potential of over 21-27% for our top picks GAIL, GSPL, and GGL. On FY23E, GAIL, GSPL and GGL are trading at a PER of 6.4-17.8x. By FY22E, operating cash flows should improve by up to 72% YoY, and FCF yield should increase up to 484bps YoY for these three companies.
|2021-02-02||Oil India Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||114.00||124.00||114.00 (29.34%)||Target met||Buy|
reported higher than expected Q3 results with standalone EBITDA of Rs 96.2bn (+45%YoY; PLe 76.9bn) and PAT of Rs49.2bn (+110%YoY; PLe Rs40.5bn). Higher operating profits were due to and forex gains was at Rs66.2bn; 9MFY21 core EBIDTA was Rs166bn vs...
|2020-11-10||Oil India Ltd. +||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||90.50||103.00||90.50 (62.93%)||Target met||Buy|
|2020-11-09||Oil India Ltd. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||91.90||92.00||91.90 (60.45%)||Target met||Buy|
Geojit BNP Paribas
We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock given the expected pickup in fuel demand in the upcoming quarters. Also, current capex plans for petrochemical segment should help improve margins. We revise our target price to Rs. 92 based on SOTP. Strong bottom-line performance despite lower revenue IOCL's Q2FY21 revenue came in at Rs. 115,749cr, a fall of 12.6% YoY, due to reduction in demand for petroleum products post pandemic lockdown. Petroleum Products sales reduced 13.1% YoY to Rs. 110,715cr, due to slow growth of gasoline and gas oil in most...
|2020-08-24||Oil India Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||97.30||99.00||97.30 (51.54%)||Target met||Sell|
J. Kumar Infraprojects: JKIL reported lower losses (at Rs 208 vs Rs 599mn expectation) owing to better execution and cost controls. COVID-19 led to company reporting 25Q low execution. High urban order book exposure (~91%) and labour migration halted execution during first half of 1QFY21. Since then, labour availability has improved from 20% to 60% and sites are seeing execution rampup with near normalisation expected by 3QFY21 (30-40% run rate currently). Whilst order backlog is robust at (4.2x 1-yr trailing revenue), near term execution challenges have sprung up as Metro/Tier-1 cities are the worst impacted due to COVID-19 in terms of labor migration. At 4.9x FY22E EPS, 1HFY21 losses/execution disappointment is already priced in. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Geographic concentration (2) Order conversion within estimated timelines (3) Prolonged monsoon Oil India: Our REDUCE recommendation on Oil India with a price target of INR 99 is premised on (1) a muted crude oil and gas realisation, and (2) lack of production growth for both oil and gas. Despite production cuts from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, we expect oil prices to remain at USD 36/41 per barrel in FY21/22E vs. USD 63/bbl in FY20, given the weak global macros. With no subsidy sharing with OMCs, OIL remains a pure-play on the crude oil price. 1QFY21 EBITDA was in line with estimates; however, OIL reported an after-tax loss of INR 2.5bn (HSIE PAT of INR 327mn), driven by (1) 46% or, INR 1bn higher depreciation than-anticipated, and (2) an exceptional loss of INR 934mn. Kolte Patil Developers:...
|2020-08-24||Oil India Ltd. +||Sharekhan||97.60||106.00||97.60 (51.08%)||Target met||Hold|
Oil India Limited (Oil India) reported weak Q1FY2021 numbers, clocking a net loss of Rs. 249 crore (as against a net profit of Rs. 625 crore in Q1FY2020) due to: 1) weak oil and gas realisations, declining by 54.1% y-o-y and 29% y-o-y respectively, 2) higher-than-expected operating expenses on account of exploration cost write-off of Rs. 115 crore (versus negative Rs. 1 crore in Q1FY2020) and 3) exceptional expenses of Rs. 93 crore related to control blowout at Baghjan Oilfields and 4) lower-than-expected other income (down 87% q-o-q). Even after adjusting for exceptional expenses, net loss...
|2020-08-22||Oil India Ltd. +||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||97.30||105.00||97.30 (51.54%)||Target met||Sell|
|2020-08-10||Oil India Ltd. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||94.10||96.00||94.10 (56.70%)||Target met||Buy|
Geojit BNP Paribas
Given the pickup in fuel demand post COVID-19 lockdown coupled with IOCL's current capex plans, margins to improve over the long term. Also, the stock is currently available at attractive valuations. We hereby reiterate our BUY rating with a revised TP of Rs. 96 based on SOTP. Topline declines with low fuel demand IOCL recorded revenue of Rs. 88,937cr, a fall of 40.8% YoY, due to nationwide lockdown and lower capacity utilization in April. Petroleum Products sales fell 41.6% YoY to Rs. 85,197cr, due to de-growth of gasoline and gas oil. Petrochemicals fell 27.9%...
|2020-08-04||Oil India Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||95.40||114.00||95.40 (54.56%)||Target met||Buy|
Lower than expected results: IOCL reported lower than expected Q1 results with standalone EBITDA of Rs55.1bn (PLe 150 bn) and PAT of Rs19.1bn (PLe Rs83.1bn). Lower operating profit was due to 1) inventory losses of Rs31.9bn (PLe +Rs17.7bn) and 2) lower than expected GRMs. Q1 EBIDTA adjusted for inventory and forex loss was at Rs86.3bn. For Q1 IOC followed accounting norms to value crude at cost or net realizable value whichever is lower- crude valued at Q1 end was t USD32.6/bbl vs Q4 end price of USD36/bbl. With crude...
|2020-07-01||Oil India Ltd. +||Sharekhan||94.80||115.00||94.80 (55.54%)||Target met||Buy|
Oil India Limited's Q4FY2020 adjusting PAT stood at Rs. 502 crore (down 38.6% y-o-y), which was above our estimate of Rs. 462 crore. The beat was on the account of higher-than-expected other income at Rs. 673 crore (which excludes one-time interest income of Rs. 321 crore on tax refund) and lowerthan-expected DD&A; expenses (down 40.4% y-o-y) partially by weak gas sales volume (down 14.4% y-o-y; down 11.2% q-o-q) and higher operating cost excluding provision (up 44% y-o-y). Oil sales volume at 0.75mmt (down 3.7% y-o-y; up 3% q-o-q) was in-line with our estimates and net oil realisation at $52.2/bbl (down 15.5% y-o-y; down 17.5% q-o-q) was marginally ahead of...
|2020-06-29||Oil India Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||95.65||100.00||95.65 (54.16%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Our TP is INR 100 (6x EV/e Sep-21E standalone earnings and INR 77 from investments).The stock is currently trading at 4.4x FY22 EV/e. Our ADD recommendation on Oil India with a TP of INR 100 is premised on rich OCF yield of 28/36% and divided yield of 3/7% over FY21/22E. We believe the current valuations are contextually low at 3.7x FY22 PER.
|2020-06-29||Oil India Ltd. +||IDBI Capital||95.65||113.00||95.65 (54.16%)||Target met||Buy|
Oil India (OIL) Q4FY20 reported first-time ever negative EBITDA on the back of lower volume and realization. However, due to higher other income and deferred tax writeback OIL reported 51.5% YoY growth in net profit. Revenue was down 16% YoY to Rs26 bn owing to 3.4%/8.3% YoY decline in oil/gas production volume and 15.5%/3.2% drop in oil/gas realization in Q4FY20. We expect oil production to fall by 2% in FY21 and stable in FY22 due to natural decline. Also, gas volume to dip by 5% for FY21 before reaching to FY20 levels in FY22 on the back of Baghjan fire, flood and Covid-19. We forecast crude oil price (Brent) to average to US40/bbl and US$50/bbl in FY21 and FY22 vs US$60.9/bbl in FY20. We value it's core business at Rs55 (4.5x EV/EBITDA) and Rs58 for...
|2020-06-29||Oil India Ltd. +||Motilal Oswal||93.65||110.00||93.65 (57.45%)||Target met||Buy|
29 June 2020 OINL recorded impairment of INR12.3b considering the impact on lower crude oil and gas prices and the additional INR5.5b in the KG Basin. This totals to INR17.8b, which has been accounted for in other expenditure. However, we have classified the impairment and write-offs as part of DD&A.; Therefore, our EBIDTA stands at INR6.8b (v/s est. -5% and -38% YoY/QoQ) against EBITDA loss of INR11b reported by the company. Owing to the aforementioned adjustment, DD&A; for the company now stands at INR20.3b (translating to USD26.7/boe). Other income was higher at INR9.9b (INR4.2b in 4QFY20) due to higher dividend and interest income.
|2020-06-25||Oil India Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||94.45||114.00||94.45 (56.11%)||Target met||Buy|
due to weak spot LNG price to make up for weak GRMs. We lower our FY21/22 earnings estimates as we update FY20 actuals. During FY20, core standalone EBIDTA adjusted for inventory and forex loss was healthy at Rs280bn (-10%YoY) despite lower refining margins ($0.08/bbl vs $5.4/bbl in FY19). Sharp drop in crude oil prices dragged down reported FY20 PAT, however, with recovering crude oil prices part of the losses to be...
|2020-02-20||Oil India Ltd. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||113.45||113.45 (29.97%)||Hold|
Geojit BNP Paribas
During the quarter, the company witnessed decline in revenue of 16.0% YoY to Rs. 2,952cr. The revenue was suppressed by both the major segments of the company, Crude Oil and Natural gas, declining 16.2% YoY to Rs. 2,326cr and 12.1% YoY to Rs. 505cr, respectively. Crude oil revenue continued to be impacted by softened prices leading to a drop in price realization to Rs. 4,507/bbl from Rs. 4,805/bbl in Q3FY19. Environmental issues and lower demand led to the decline in Crude oil production by 10.9% YoY to 0.747mmt along with drop in Natural gas production by 4.8% YoY to 0.697bcm. Similarly, Crude oil sales weakened by 10.8% YoY to 0.726mmt and Natural...
|2020-02-11||Oil India Ltd. +||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||136.05||225.00||136.05 (8.38%)||Buy|
|2020-02-11||Oil India Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||136.05||186.00||136.05 (8.38%)||Buy|
We lower our estimates by 2-7% to factor in lower volume growth and realization. OINL stock has underperformed broader index due to weak volume trajectory and concerns of stake divestment by government. Capital allocation risk is also there given investments in Mozambique where returns will be back ended. We maintain Accumulate' with a price target of Rs186...
|2020-02-10||Oil India Ltd. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||130.25||135.00||130.25 (13.21%)||Target met||Buy|
Geojit BNP Paribas
We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock given the sequential recovery in crude prices and expected GRM improvements over the next few quarters, with a revised target price of Rs. 135 based on SOTP. Revenue under pressure as crude prices remain soft In Q3FY20, revenue fell 9.6% YoY to Rs. 144,820cr (+9.4% QoQ) due to low throughput on account of shutdown of refineries for BS-VI upgradation. As a result domestic utilization of pipelines remained at only 88.7% (vs. 92.2% in Q2FY20). Amongst segments, Petrochemical witnessed steep declines of 24.0% YoY to 4,152cr, followed...
|2020-01-31||Oil India Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||123.05||145.00||123.05 (19.83%)||Buy|
Benign crude prices is positive and will support marketing profits. We lower our FY20-22 earnings estimates to factor in lower refining margins. During Q3, core performance for IOCL was weak due to weak refining performance. While benign crude oil prices is likely to support marketing margins in medium term, refining scenario has worsened with muted demand...
|2019-11-19||Oil India Ltd. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||161.25||173.00||161.25 (-8.56%)||Hold|
Geojit BNP Paribas
Q2FY20 standalone revenue dropped 14.2% YoY as crude oil revenue continued to decline 20.5% YoY, offset to some extent due to the increase in natural gas revenue (+27.2% YoY). Crude oil sales volumes declined 4.9% YoY coupled with weak crude oil price realization (-16.5% YoY). However, natural gas production and sales volume increased by 1.8% YoY and 4.3% YoY respectively. EBITDA margin tapered by ~70bps YoY to 38.7%, while EBITDA...