• Trendlyne logo
  • Markets
  • Alerts
  • F&O
  • MF
  • Reports
  • Screeners
  • Subscribe
  • Superstars
  • Portfolio
  • Watchlist
  • Insider Trades
  • Results
  • Data Downloader
  • Events Calendar
  • What's New
  • Explore
  • FAQs
  • Widgets
More
    Search stocks
    IND USA
    IND
    IND
    IND
    USA
    • Stocks
    • Futures & Options
    • Mutual Funds
    • News
    • Fundamentals
    • Reports
    • Corporate Actions
    • Alerts
    • Shareholding

    The Baseline

    12
    Following
    368
    Stocks Tracked
    49
    Sectors & Interests
    Follow
    Load latest
    logo
    The Baseline
    24 Mar 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. UltraTech Cement: With a capacity of 121.35 metric tonnes per annum (mtpa), thiscement and construction company  has plans to increase its capacity to 153.85 mtpa by FY25/FY26.

    UltraTech Cements reported revenue growth of 19.5% YoY in Q3FY23, but its EBITDA margins declined 33bps YoY. The rise in revenue was led by an increase in volumes, while margins contracted due to the higher cost of raw materials. The price hike undertaken by UltraTech lagged cost increases, and the increase in energy costs adversely impacted the margins of the firm.

    Energy costs (petcoke/coal) have decreased by 30% in CY23.  The benefit of this will start to reflect in Q4FY23. FY24 being an election year, government spending on infra projects is expected to be high. UltraTech might see a jump in volumes due to this. However, in the near term, the company is more focused on volumes and will restrict its price hikes. The stock hasgained 4.27% in the past three trading sessions and shows up in a screener for growth in net profit with an increasing profit margin.

    Geojit BNP Paribas says demand for cement remains strong despite inflationary headwinds led by infrastructure and housing sector initiatives. Furthermore, a drop in raw material costs will enhance the company’s margins. Ultratech’s premium brand positioning, pan-India presence and efficient capacity utilization will aid bottom-line growth.

    1. One97 Communications (Paytm): This internet & software services stock rose 6.9% on Wednesday after Macquarie upgraded its rating to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Underperform’ and revised the target price to Rs 800 from Rs 450 per share. This implies a potential share price upside of 28.4%. During previous broker downgrades, Macquarie was one of the first brokerages to slash Paytm’s target price to Rs 450 and recommendation to ‘Underperform’. However, Macquarie appears to have changed its mind and turned bullish on the stock. The recent upward target price revision has helped Paytm to show up in a screener of stocks with upgraded recommendation or target price in the past three months. The stock is currently trading 245.1% below its issue price of Rs 2,150 per share.

    According to the brokerage, the company has outperformed on the distribution of financial services revenue by a huge margin, while also controlling the overall expenses and charges. This can be observed in its strong operating performance in January-February. The company’s loan disbursement increased by 286% YoY to Rs 8,086 crore, while its gross merchandise value (GMV) witnessed a growth of 41% YoY. Its average monthly transacting users (MTU) also rose 28% YoY in January-February.

    Owing to this strong operational performance, Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates the company’s annual revenue to grow by 37.6% to Rs 7,969 crore and its losses to contract by 21.7% to Rs 1,966.9 crore. However, one thing to keep an eye on is Paytm’s NPA levels on loans, as interest rates continue to increase. 

    1. Phoenix Mills: This realty company has risen 5.8% over the past week on the back of the street’s positive outlook on its prospects. Post the second Covid wave, the company has witnessed a gradual recovery in demand and footfall across its retail, office and commercial spaces. The firm’s mall portfolio is expected to increase to 14 million square feet (msf) by FY27, from 9 msf in March 2023. The realty company aims to add at least one million square feet of retail space every year. By June this year, the company will be adding three more malls to its portfolio of 11 now. According to reports, the management claims leasing occupancy rates across its malls have improved to 94%-99% as retail consumption improves. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with improving cash flow and high durability. 

    Motilal Oswal recently re-initiated its coverage on Phoenix Mills with a ‘Buy’ rating. The brokerage believes that healthy pre-leasing trends across its upcoming malls provide strong near-term visibility on rental growth. It is also especially positive about the firm’s mixed-use strategy, where the company plans to add office spaces on top of or adjacent to its existing and upcoming malls, to improve the blended yield of the assets.

    The company expects a consumption boom in India over the coming quarters and plans to expand into newer urban markets across the country. However, medium-term risks like a slowdown in consumption recovery and lower-than-expected leasing demand can impact the company’s expansion plans.

    1. Anupam Rasayan India: This agrochemicals company rose over 2.5% in trade on Thursday after it signed a letter of intent (LoI) worth $120 million (Rs 984 crore) with a Japanese chemical company. The LoI is for the supply of new-age advance intermediates for life science ingredients over six years. Commenting on the same, Managing Director Anand Desai says, "This LoI demonstrates the company’s ability to work on a niche molecule with Japanese customers, and strengthens the revenue growth visibility in the coming years.” Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates Anupam’s revenue to grow by 28.2% in FY23. 

    The company has been on an uptrend recently, rising around 33% in the past month on the back of a strong outlook. As a result of the uptick in share price, the company features in a screener of stocks  with strong momentum. It has also risen around 56% from its 52-week low of Rs 546.7. Anupam Rasayan has focused on expanding its product portfolio in fluorination chemistry, and plans to launch 14 molecules in the next 12-18 months, and five molecules in Q4FY23. The company also has a robust pipeline of contracts worth Rs 2,620 crore, says KRChoksey.

    In addition, Anupam Rasayan has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) worth Rs 670 crore with the Government of Gujarat to set up three chemical plants, according to media reports. These plants will focus on manufacturing fluorochemicals.

    1. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC): This oil marketing & distribution stock has fallen 1.13% in the past week despite announcing new ventures and improving refining capabilities. On Monday, IOC inked a pact with NTPC’s arm to form a joint venture for setting up a renewable energy power plant to meet IOC’s power requirements. Reports suggest that the transition of energy production from fossil-based systems to renewable energy is a good move, given that demand for petrol and diesel will slowly fall as companies shift to renewable energy sources. This is also in line with IOC’s target to increase its green energy share to 12% by 2030 from the current 9%.

    On Tuesday, IOC’s board gave in-principle approval to prepare a feasibility report to set up a petrochemical complex at Paradip, Odisha. The estimated cost of the project is Rs 61,077 crore. The project in Paradip will help IOC improve its petrochemical intensity (% of crude oil converted to chemicals) and also reduce import dependency.

    IOC’s Chairman Shrikant Madhav Vaida says that the company’s petrochemical intensity is currently at 5%-6%, and it plans to increase it to 10%-12%. He adds that refineries at locations like Panipat and Odisha will see the intensity go as high as 25%. Despite the announcement, the stock fell 1.3% in trade on Tuesday.

    However, it has gained 8.2% in the past three months, thanks to a steady fall in crude prices. ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on the company with a target price of Rs 79.9. It recommends keeping the stop loss at Rs 77.7. Geojit BNP Paribas maintains a ‘Hold’ on the stock and expects effective cost optimization and enhanced utilization to aid earnings in the near term. Trendlyne’s consensus recommendation has 16 analysts recommending a ‘Buy’, 8 suggesting ‘Hold’ and 4 ‘Sell’.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

    1
    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    24 Mar 2023
    When blood isn’t enough: Some family owned companies like the Tata group, are strong performers. Others? Not so much

    When blood isn’t enough: Some family owned companies like the Tata group, are strong performers. Others? Not so much

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    The top three companies by market cap in the US - Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet - were all started by first-generation entrepreneurs. In India however, two of the top three companies by market cap - Reliance and TCS - are part of family conglomerates. This pattern continues as we go down the list of Indian businesses. 

    Tata, Birla and Ambani are well-known names and family-run Indian conglomerates with a significant share of the economy. But do these family-owned businesses do better or worse than average, in financial performance? Do companies whose top management are all in the family, see different outcomes? 

    Here we take a look at India’s largest family-run businesses, and how they perform compared to the overall industry. 

    To do this comparison, we looked at the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE). The ROCE is a ratio used to evaluate a company’s capital efficiency and profitability, is an effective parameter to compare the performance of companies. It helps us understand how good a company is at generating profits from its capital. 

    Investors prefer stocks with stable and rising ROCE (above 20%) over stocks with weak and volatile ROCE (below 10%). Another advantage with the ROCE ratio is that unlike return on equity (ROE), which analyses only profitability on equity, it considers debt along with equity. The companies in focus are capital-intensive and ROCE therefore, offers better insights.

    The chart above depicts the ROCE percentage on the Y-axis. The bubble size is linked to the market cap of the company. Five major companies from each family group have been chosen and analysed.  20% ROCE, which is considered a good ratio, has been highlighted on the chart so that we can see which companies perform better or worse. 

    We also checked how family groups perform as compared to their sector’s average ROCE. 

    Fertilizers, software and services and FMCG are among the sectors with strong ROCE ratios.

    Murugappa Group companies log high ROCE

    Murugappa Group, founded in 1900, has a presence in auto, sugar, fertilizers, etc. The Tamil Nadu based group is headed by M M Murugappan and currently has the fourth generation of the Murugappa family on the board. 

    Most companies in the group, except for Carborundum Universal (18.1%), have very strong returns. Companies with high returns are Cholamandalam Investment & Finance (24.7%), Tube Investments of India (28.6%) and CG Power and Industrial Solutions (43.6%). All three companies have also outperformed their respective sectors by a minimum of 15%. Coromandel International has a high ROCE of 31.1% but did not outperform the fertilizer sector. 

    Adani Group struggles in ROCE, Adani Total Gas is the outlier

    Founded by Gautam Adani in 1988 for trading commodities, the Adani Group has over the decades, turned into a multinational conglomerate involving multiple businesses. Their meteoric rise has been attributed to the rapid increase in debt the group has taken on, and their closeness to the current government. However, the recent Adani-Hindenburg row made investors cautious about the group.

    As seen in the chart, four of the top five companies have weak ROCE values and underperform their respective sectors. Adani Total Gas is the only company with a high ROCE of 24.8%, and that has outperformed its sector, utilities (by 12.1%). Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Adani Transmission and Adani Green Energy have ROCE lower than 10%.

    Aditya Birla Group: UltraTech Cement, Aditya Birla Sun Life outperform sector ROCE

    Aditya Birla group, founded by Seth Shiv Narayan Birla in 1857, is currently chaired by Kumar Mangalam Birla. The group is engaged in sectors like metals, cement and telecom. The major five stocks under the Birla Group have ROCE on the lower spectrum. Hindalco and UltraTech Cement have fairly high returns of 15.6% and 14.6% respectively. UltraTech’s ROCE has outperformed the cement and construction sector by 1.8%. 

    Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, which is not in the top five companies in terms of market cap, outperformed its sector with a strong ROCE of 39.4%. 

    Tata Group performs better than its sectors

    Established by Jamsetji Tata in 1868, Tata group is India's largest conglomerate. It is currently looked after by the parent company, Tata Sons. Key people in Tata Sons are Ratan Tata and Natarajan Chandrasekaran, among others. 

    With strong returns, three of the top five companies in the Tata group have outperformed their respective sectors. Tata Consultancy Services, an IT behemoth, has a ROCE of 52.9%, higher than its sector’s 37.6%, which in itself is a strong percentage. Titan and Tata Steel also have high returns of 29.7% and 28.3% respectively, whereas Tata Motors’s is very low at 1.6%. 

    Mahindra Group’s Mahindra Lifespace Developers has negative ROCE

    Mahindra & Mahindra, incorporated as Mahindra & Mohammed in 1945 by Jagdish Chandra Mahindra and Kailash Chandra Mahindra, is currently chaired by Anand Mahindra. Besides auto, the Mahindra group is also engaged in IT and finance businesses. Mahindra & Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services and Mahindra CIE Automotivehave returns above 10% but below 20%. 

    Tech Mahindra has a strong ROCE of 23.5%, yet underperformed the software and services sector by 14.1%. On the other hand, Mahindra Lifespace Developers has a negative ROCE of -4.3%, even though it has a positive ROE of 8.6%. The company logged below zero returns on capital as it had negative EBIT for the past three years. 

    Most stocks from the Godrej Group underperform their sectors 

    Godrej Group was founded by Ardeshir Godrej and Pirojsha Burjorji Godrej in 1897. Its current chairman is Adi Godrej. Only one of the listed companies in the group - Astec Lifesciences - has outperformed its respective sector with strong returns. The other four have returns lower than 20%. The only stock with a high ROCE is Astec Lifesciences (32.1%), a chemicals manufacturer, and it has outperformed its sector by 9.1%. Godrej Agrovet and Godrej Consumer Products come close to the 20% mark with 19.4% and 18.7% respectively.

    Most companies in the Jindal Group have strong returns 

    The Jindal group was founded in 1952 by B C Jindal for the manufacture of steel pipes and pipe fittings. Since then, it has diversified into packaging films, power generation, etc. Most companies under Jindal have strong returns. JSW Steel, Jindal Steel & Power, Jindal Stainless and Jindal Stainless (Hisar) stand at 24.9%, 25%, 34.9% and 32.7% respectively. But only the latter two have outperformed the metal and mining sector (26.9%). JSW Energy has a ROCE of 11.6%.

    Bajaj Group’s Bajaj Auto manages to make the cut above 20%

    Bajaj Group, founded by Jamnalal Bajaj in 1926, is currently headed by Niraj Bajaj, Rahul Bajaj and Madhur Bajaj, among others. The group is involved in automobiles, home appliances, insurance, travel and finance. Three of its top five companies have outperformed their sectors. 

    Bajaj Auto is the only stock that managed to cross the 20% ROCE threshold. It also outperformed the auto sector by 7%. Bajaj Finance (12.4%) and Bajaj Finserv (11.8%) did better than their sectors by 3.9% and 2% respectively. Bajaj Holdings & Investment has a very low ROCE of 0.6%.

    Murugappa Group performs better than other family conglomerates

    Among all the groups in focus, Murugappa Group has performed the best in terms of ROCE with most of its companies logging high returns on capital, and also outperforming their sectors. Among the rest, Tata and Jindal group companies have stronger returns on capital, unlike Birla. Adani, Godrej, Mahindra and Bajaj.

    5
    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    23 Mar 2023
    Screener of the week: Stocks rising in a tough market: High revenue growth estimates, high target price upside and recent broker upgrades

    Screener of the week: Stocks rising in a tough market: High revenue growth estimates, high target price upside and recent broker upgrades

    By Abdullah Shah

    As the financial year comes to an end and the result season approaches, we take a look at stocks that analysts are especially bullish about. These stocks have especially high revenue growth estimates in FY23.

    This screenerconsists of stocks with high annual revenue growth estimates and target price upside along with price upgrades from brokers over the past three months.

    The screener has 57 stocks from the Nifty 500 and nine stocks from the Nifty 50 index. It is dominated by industries like auto parts & equipment, cement & cement products and other industrial products.

    Major stocks that show up in the screener are Kotak Mahindra Bank, Coromandel International, Vinati Organics, LTIMindtree, Solar Industries India and InterGlobe Aviation.

    According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, LTIMindtree has the highest revenue growth estimates of 109.6% for FY23. This rise in revenue can be attributed to the merger of Mindtree with L&T Infotech, which was completed on November 14, 2022. The stock has an average target price upside of 15%, with five target price upgrades over the past three months.

    InterGlobe Aviation comes in next with a 107.8% estimated growth in revenue for FY23. The airline is planning to start flights to Nairobi, Jakarta and some central Asian destinations and is also waiting for an order of 500 aircraft to be delivered.

    Coromandel International has the highest average target price upside of 39% by brokers with an annual revenue growth estimate of 53.4% in FY23. Brokers estimate this rise in revenue on the back of the seven new products launched by the company in FY23. 

    You can find more screeners here.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    22 Mar 2023
    Chart of the week: Stocks that beat a volatile market to increase their momentum scores

    Chart of the week: Stocks that beat a volatile market to increase their momentum scores

    By Abdullah Shah

    India’s benchmark index, the Nifty 50 has dropped 4.4% over the past month due to weak market sentiment caused by the banking crisis in the US and Europe. Banks like the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in the US and Credit Suisse Bank in Europe have faced a crisis where SVB was forced to shut down, and UBS bought Credit Suisse in the midst of a liquidity crunch for $3.2 billion. 

    However, despite weak market sentiment, some stocks have bucked the trend and risen over the past month, with a jump in their Trendlyne momentum scores signalling rising buying interest.

    This screener shows stocks whose momentum scores are above 50 and have risen sharply compared to the previous month and week.  A stock scoring above 50 is considered to be moving into the bullish zone. Trendlyne’s Momentum Score is calculated for each stock every day based on more than 30 different technical indicators, and helps identify stocks that are bullish or bearish across multiple metrics.

    Many stocks in the rising momentum screener belong to the pharmaceuticals and healthcare facilities industries, as these are considered to be defensive and relatively immune to economic slowdowns.

    Pharmaceuticals and healthcare facilities stocks like Abbott India, Torrent Pharmaceuticals and Max Healthcare have seen their momentum scores improve by 13.9, 10.2 and 14.9 points respectively. This aided Max Healthcare and Torrent Pharma to jump to the good momentum score classification (Trendlyne momentum score > 50) from a medium classification. 

    Oil marketing companies like Bharat Petroleum Corp and paint companies like Berger Paints (India) have been rising since Brent crude price fell below $80 per barrel in December. Drop in crude prices also aids paint stocks as oil is a raw material used to produce paints.

    Bharat Petroleum’s Trendlyne momentum score jumped by 16.3 points over the past month, while Berger Paints’ momentum score rose by 13.8 points over the same period helping the stocks to classify in the good momentum score category. Brent crude prices also hit a 15-month low of $ 70.9 per barrel on Tuesday which could help these stocks to rise further.

    Godrej Consumer Goods’ momentum score improved by 11.3 points to 65.9 over the past 30 days. The stock touched its 52-week high of Rs 964 on Tuesday and is currently trading above all its SMAs. 

    Power Grid Corp has risen 3.4% over the past month aiding the stock’s momentum score jump by 33.6 points. The electric utilities stock rose on the back of four order wins over the past month while also approving a capex of Rs 4,071 crore for expansion in the eastern region and the commission of the transmission system in Kurnool Wind Energy Zone.

    See the full screener here.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    21 Mar 2023
    Five analyst picks this week

    Five analyst picks this week

    By Abhiraj Panchal
    1. Data Patterns (India): ICICI Direct upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ on this defence and aerospace electronics company with a target price of Rs 1,555. This indicates an upside of 10.4%. The company’s board has approved the allotment of 40.97 lakh shares through QIP, at an issue price of Rs 1,220.31 per share, aggregating to Rs 500 crore. Analysts Chirag Shah and Vijay Goel “believe that fundraising for working capital and product development will benefit the company in faster execution of existing contracts, and in bidding for more contracts”.

    The analysts are optimistic as the defence player has strong order inflows with a healthy pipeline of orders worth Rs 2,000-3,000 crore in the next three years. They also expect electronic components used in Indian defence platforms to be sourced locally, instead of from foreign manufacturers, as indigenisation efforts continue.

    Shah and Goel anticipate revenue and profit CAGR of 29.3% and 28.5% respectively over FY22-25.

    1. Kalpataru Power Transmissions: Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this electric utilities company with a target price of Rs 695, indicating an upside of 22.3%. “Our interaction with Kalpataru Power Transmission reinstates the positive stance on the company’s capability to accelerate its revenue growth and margin expansion,” say the analysts.

      They believe that the company is a leading player with a strong order book (Rs 46,642 crore, up 46% YoY) as well as fresh orders (surpassed order inflow guidance for FY23), which will lead to improved revenue visibility. 

    They are also positive about the company due to its merger with JMC Projects. The merger is expected to increase the group’s geographical reach and improve its capability to bid for large-size and more complex projects. According to the analysts, the company also expects a decline in debt and improvement in the working capital cycle thanks to better operating performance and monetisation of non-core assets.

    1. PVR: Prabhudas Lilladher retains its ‘Buy’ call on this multiplex company with a target price of Rs 2,096, indicating an upside of 33.1%. Analysts Jinesh Joshi and Stuti Beria expect synergy benefits of Rs 200 crore from the PVR-Inox merger to accrue over the next two years. They expect that the merger will enhance balance sheet strength, enabling rapid expansion into new markets. 

    Joshi and Beria believe that the merged entity will lend a size advantage and improve bargaining power with various stakeholders in the value chain, like film distributors, real estate developers, ad networks and ticket aggregators, resulting in material revenue/cost synergies. 

    The analysts are also positive about PVR and estimate that it will open 155 screens per annum for the next two years after the merger.

    1. LTIMindtree: ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this IT consulting & software company with a target price of Rs 5,651, implying an upside of 21%. Analysts Sumit Jain and Aditi Patil are positive about the company’s prospects on the back of strong cross-selling opportunities and its ability to bag larger deals post-merger. They believe that Larsen & Toubro Infotech (LTI) and Mindtree complement each other and this allows them to scale up operations.

      According to the analysts, “Mindtree is stronger in front-end digital solutions and LTI shines in back-end ERP-related core transformation solutions.” They expect the company’s EBIT margin to improve by 260 bps over FY23-26 to 18.6%, driven by operating leverage with a higher scale of operations and integration-related synergies. 

    Jain and Patil believe that, with their track record of strong management execution, the combined entity’s management is well-equipped to enable industry-leading profit growth in the coming quarters. The analysts expect the firm’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 18.8% over FY22-25.

    1. Tata Motors: Motilal Oswal keeps its ‘Buy’ rating on this automobile manufacturer with a target price of Rs 540, indicating an upside of 31.3%. Analysts Jinesh Gandhi, Amber Shukla and Aniket Desai believe that the Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) brand is on a sustainable growth path and will be one of the key drivers of growth for the company. They add that Tata Motor’s domestic passenger and commercial vehicle business is already on a healthy growth trend. They see the prospects of JLR improving as supply-side pressures subside and demand remains healthy. “As supplies improve, JLR should reach near zero net debt levels by FY25, thanks to improved production, better margins and working capital release,” the analysts say.

    Gandhi, Shukla and Desai believe JLR will firmly position itself as a luxury premium brand as it changes its branding strategy and redefines Jaguar with premium launches in the electric vehicle market in CY25. The analysts expect the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 14.2% over FY23-25. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline created a screener Significant Jump in Momentum …
    20 Mar 2023

    Significant Jump in Momentum Score

    Stocks whose momentum score has risen sharply compared to the previous month and week, and whose score is above 50
    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    20 Mar 2023
    Sovereign Gold Bonds shine brighter than other gold investments

    Sovereign Gold Bonds shine brighter than other gold investments

    By Shreesh Biradar

    Most Indians are familiar with the box of gold jewellery, carefully stored in the Godrej almirah or bank locker. Buying gold is not new for Indian investors –  it is a traditional way to save and provide inheritance. And it is easy to resell - as the writer Ken Alstad noted, “Second hand gold is as good as new.” 

    Over the past 10 years, gold prices increased by a CAGR of 6.49., In just the past six months, it jumped by 9.54%. The recent uncertainty in the financial world and stock markets have increased investments in gold. 

    Gold also acts as an effective hedge against inflation. Central banks tend to buy gold as a protection against high inflation. In CY22, central banks across the globe purchased 673 tonnes of gold – the highest in thepast 55 years. Besides central banks, broader investors are also buying gold, which pushed gold prices to an all-time high in Feb-2023.

    Gold has not disappointed retail investors in terms of returns as its prices have gone up by a CAGR of 12.56% in the past 15 years.

    Five-year rolling returns of physical gold have declined between 2014 and 2019. As investors move towards paper gold like Gold Bees (Started by Reliance Nippon in 2007) and Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGB), the demand for physical gold has decreased over the years. 

    Physical gold performs better than Gold Bees

    Gold Bees are similar to physical gold and are exchange-traded funds. It was first launched in India by Reliance Nippon in April 2007. Gold Bees are backed by physical gold. For every investment made in Gold Bees, ETFs buy a proportionate amount of gold.

    If we compare the price changes of physical gold to net asset value (NAV) of Gold Bees, the former fares better in the longer run. Since the launch of Gold Bees in April 2007, it has given returns of 11.51% CAGR, while physical gold gave 12.56% in the same time period.

    The differential of 1.05% is on account of the expense ratio of ETFs. The churn coupled with storage charges eats away at the returns. Currently, Nippon India ETF Gold Bees have an expense ratio of 0.82%. Their lower returns and inability to be used as collateral limit the value proposition. Hence, Gold Bees are preferred for short-term investments only. 

    Indian retail investors are the driving force behind gold prices – India consumes 25% of the world’s gold production, coming in second after China. India’s gold consumption in CY22 stood at 774 tonnes and it was 1,002 tonnes in China. While lower than the previous year, rising gold prices have limited retail consumption. 

    Higher consumption of gold is an economic concern for India. India is a net importer of gold, India has a greater trade deficit, which shoots up dollar prices. To fill the fiscal deficit caused by the stronger dollar, the government has to borrow more. To combat this problem and limit gold imports, the government introduced a 12% import duty on gold in 2013. The government also introduced sovereign gold bonds (SGBs) to lure away retail investors from physical gold. 

    What are Sovereign Gold Bonds?

    Sovereign Gold Bonds are designed to imitate actual gold in terms of monetary benefits. It moves in accordance with price changes in physical gold. On top of this, the government pays a coupon interest rate of 2.5% per annum (paid semi-annually) on the nominal value of the bond. SGB has a lock-in period of five years and a redemption tenure of eight years. After the lock-in period, investors can sell the bond in the secondary market. SGB is as good as gold but in paper form. It’s like buying gold and earning an extra 2.5% interest on top of it.

    SGBs aim to wean investors off physical gold and reduce the import burden on the Indian economy. It also lets the government borrow at a cheaper rate of 2.5%, which is much lower than the standard rate of 5%-6%. It’s a win-win situation for retail investors and the government.

    Features of Sovereign Gold Bonds over physical gold.

    ·SGBs pay a coupon interest rate of 2.5% (paid semi-annually) per annum on the nominal value.

    ·There are no safety/storage concerns associated with SGBs as it is available in demat and paper forms. 

    ·Its redemption price is based on the average closing price of 999 gold over the previous three business days. The prices published by the India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) are considered for this. This system ensures the purity of gold and eliminates worries over wastage. 

    ·Chances of default are minimal as the bond is backed by the government. 

    ·The bond is issued in multiples of 1 gram and can be traded on the NSE.

    ·The minimum investment prescribed for individuals and Hindu undivided families (HUF) is 1 gram and the maximum is 4 kg. For trusts and charitable institutions, the limit is 20 kg.

    ·Even though the maturity period is eight years, SGBs are redeemable after five years, on every interest payment date.

    ·Capital gains from redemptions are tax-exempted. Gains from the sale of bonds are considered long/short-term capital gains and interest earned is considered under income tax laws.

    ·SGBs can be used as collateral for loans. The loan-to-value will be in line with a normal gold loan. You are not required to pay valuation charges for SGB-backed loans.

    SGBs give better returns than Gold Bees and physical gold

    Indian retail investors find comfort in owning physical gold but SGBs beat it in value proportion. Returns from SGBs have been superior to physical gold and Gold Bees. This is besides the added advantage of zero storage/safety costs and 2.5% interest rate from the government. 

    The chart below compares five-year rolling returns from physical gold, Nippon Gold Bees and SGBs over the past 10 years. Since SGB was only introduced in 2015, we have taken SGB at the same price as gold since April 2007 and added a CAGR of 2.5% YoY. Based on this calculation, the 5-year returns of SGB would have been always higher by 13.14%.

    SGBs have outperformed other gold products over the years and are suitable for long-term investments. Even though Gold Bees have underperformed consistently since its launch, it does not take away its short-term benefits. 

    SGBs, even with their superior returns, have not been able to tame India’s gold consumption. If an investor is looking to ride gold prices along with bank-like interest rates, SGBs clearly stand out. Even parents planning for their children’s marriage could opt for SGBs in the long term as it could be redeemed and bought in physical gold. Or the SGBs can be retained for future growth. 

    1
    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    17 Mar 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. PNC Infratech: This roads and highways company rose 1.5% on Wednesday as it bagged a contract worth Rs 1,260 crore from the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for the construction of the Varanasi-Ranchi-Kolkata highway. The contract is for two years of construction and 15 years of highway operation. However, the stock has fallen 14.3% over the past month despite winning three orders worth Rs 3,264.4 crore in March, as its revenue and net profit missed Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates by 4.1% and 5.5% respectively in Q3FY23. 

    Sharekhan retains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 390, indicating a potential upside of 34.5%. The brokerage believes that the receipt of appointed dates for hybrid annuity model (HAM) projects from NHAI and expected order wins in the near term will lead to higher revenue growth during FY24-25. 

    The company also stands to benefit from the 36% (Rs 2.7 lakh crore) increase in budget allocation for the road and highways segment. The company shows up in a screener of stocks where brokers have upgraded recommendation or target price in the past three months. 

    1. Sona BLW Precision Forgings: This auto parts & equipment company’s stock fell over 6% on Monday as Blackstone offloaded its 20.5% stake (11.9 crore shares) worth Rs 4,917.4 crore in a bulk deal. The shares have been picked up by the Government of Singapore, Societe Generale and HDFC Mutual Fund, among others. In the past week, the stock has fallen 8.6%, underperforming the Nifty 50 index by 4.3% and currently trades near its 52-week low. 

    However, brokerages remain bullish on the stock after the bulk deal, with some expecting a 35%+ upside. On Wednesday, Jefferies initiated coverage on Sona BLW Precision Forgings with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 575. The brokerage believes the company can grow its differential business with a focus on R&D and the Indian cost advantage. It likes Sona's strategy to expand its component portfolio in order to meet the electrification and autonomous trends in the global auto sector. Overseas markets contributed to around 70% of Sona BLW’s total revenue in Q3FY23, with the North American market being a major revenue contributor (45%).

    Another brokerage, CLSA, also maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock but cuts target price to Rs 529 from Rs 599. The brokerage believes that the impact of Blackstone's exit on the company’s future growth will be limited as it maintains a strong order book. In Q3FY23, Sona’s order book has risen 16.1% QoQ to 23,800 crore. 

    1. KPIT Technologies: This IT consulting & software company rose by 8.8% on Wednesday amid high volatility in the market. This positive price movement has helped the company show up in a screener for stocks near their 52-week high with high volumes.

      This uptrend in stock price comes on the back of the company announcing a new deal to expand its partnership with Honda and accelerate its software-defined mobility (SDM) technology. The management says the partnership will have over 2,000 of KPIT’s software & vehicle systems professionals working on Honda’s SDM technology until 2030 and beyond. According to reports, Kishor Patil, the firm’s CEO, says that the deal with Honda is larger than its previous deal with Renault. He adds that the company will be involved in all aspects of future mobility with Honda. 

    In addition to this massive deal win, the company has also posted healthy results in Q3FY23. Its net profit grew 20.4% QoQ and beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 5%. The stock also ranks high on Trendlyne’s checklist with a score of 69.57%.

    Despite the economic downturn in the US and European markets, the management states that the company has not seen any budget cuts from its clients. It won orders with a total contract value of $272 million in Q3FY23. Going forward, KPIT plans to focus on improving the quality of hiring as it expects to win more complex projects in the coming quarters. 

    1. GAIL: Thisutility firm has been bogged down by the erratic supply of LNG since the start of the Russia and Ukraine war. GAIL hadsigned a contract with Russia-backed Gazprom’s subsidiary GMTS Germany to supply 2.5 million tonnes of LNG per year until 2039. However, due to sanctions imposed on Russia, GMTS Germany was acquired by Sefe. Sefe stopped the supply of LNG to GAIL after the war, as it was unable to fulfill the demand in Europe and there was not enough inventory for export. 

    This forced GAIL to purchase LNG from other sources for a higher price. The recent drop in spot LNG prices has caused GAIL to incur Rs 1,100 crore loss on its inventory. Now GAIL is set to receive two shipments from Sefe for the first time since the supply was halted, as the German company has decided to resume supply from its Non-Russia portfolio. 

    GAIL’s top line increased by 37.2% YoY in Q3FY23 but EBITDA declined 93.8%. The EBITDA decline was on account of inventory losses and lower price realisations in hydrocarbons and petrochemicals. GAIL’s investment in capex augurs well with its growth trajectory. GAIL has a planned capex of Rs 6,300 crore in FY23 and Rs 9,500 crore in FY24. The company expects its Urja Ganga pipeline to be completed in Q1FY24. The stock shows up in a screener with increased mutual fund shareholding in the past month.

    ICICI Securities says pickup in gas transmission and petchem volume will drive revenue for the company. Gas trading is also expected to improve with new contracts. The brokerage has revised its ‘Buy’ rating to ‘Hold’.

    1. Mahindra & Mahindra: This automobile stock fell 2.7% in trade on Monday after it sold a 6.1% stake (2.3 crore shares) in Mahindra CIE Automotive, where Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is a promoter. The transaction was worth Rs 823 crore. M&M has been gradually exiting Mahindra CIE Automotive, in line with its earlier plans of exiting non-core asset businesses. Analysts at Sharekhan believe this move to be good for M&M as these funds can be allocated to other structural areas which will determine long-term growth for the company. In the past week, the stock has fallen 9.5%.

    In a similar move, M&M’s Bangladesh subsidiary, Mahindra Bangladesh Private (MBPL), has decided to liquidate the entire business. The stock fell nearly 3% in trade on Tuesday and traded almost flat on Wednesday. MBPL ceased to exist as M&M’s wholly owned subsidiary from March 14. Since March 31, 2022, MBPL had no income from operations and its net worth had reduced to 0.01% of M&M’s net worth. 

    On a positive note, M&M’s wholesales have gained traction in the past few months. In February, M&M’s passenger vehicles and three-wheeler wholesales went up 10% YoY and 40% YoY respectively. Motilal Oswal suggests that its tractor demand has been intact in FY23 and will likely benefit from high MSP (minimum support prices) and positive agro-economic indicators. However, tractor demand may weaken in FY24, even if the country sees normal monsoons. The El Nino effect may hamper agriculture growth, dampening demand for tractors as it is highly dependent on farmers’ earnings. Despite this, the consensus recommendation from 34 analysts on the stock remains ‘Buy’, while two maintain ‘Hold’ and ‘Sell’. 

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    17 Mar 2023
    Chart of the week: Inflation in India eases a bit, but remains above 6%

    Chart of the week: Inflation in India eases a bit, but remains above 6%

    By Abdullah Shah

    After briefly falling below the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance limit of 6% in November and December 2022, India’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation has pulled above the limit  for two straight months. Even though it fell marginally by 12 bps in February, it still hit 6.44%. 

    Over the past two months, CPI has risen due to a jump in food and fuel prices. In February, CPI inflation was  propelled over 6% from rising costs in the food and beverages segment. The rise in F&B was caused by high cereal and protein prices (up 16.1% YoY). Fuel and light inflation also remained high, rising close to 10% YoY.

    Fuel is a major contributor to CPI, so inflation follows the overall trend in price change of India’s crude oil basket. The Indian crude oil basket consists of sour grade (Oman & Dubai average) and sweet grade (Brent Dated) of crude oil processed in Indian refineries in a ratio of approximately 75 to 25. Though inflation in the fuel and power segment has declined by 90 bps MoM to 9.9%, the crude oil basket price price is higher than December 2022 levels. 

    The marginal MoM fall in CPI in February can be attributed to the fall in vegetable prices, mainly onion, tomato and potato. However, the foods and beverages segment, which has the highest weightage (39.1%), is still facing inflation, due to a sharp jump in cereal prices. 

    Other major contributors to CPI are the housing, and clothing & footwear segments. The housing segment has witnessed a 20 bps MoM rise in inflation to 4.8%, while clothing & footwear inflation continues to decline for four consecutive months.

    With inflation stubbornly above the 6% upper limit, economists believe that another rate hike by the RBI is imminent in April. According to Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, “The worst of inflation is likely behind us. Headline inflation could fall below 6% in March 2023 and towards 5% in the coming months. Also, a 25 bps hike in April by the RBI is almost certain." 

    US consumer price index inflation also remained high in February at 6% YoY, but fell MoM, in line with economists’ expectations. After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other major banks in the past week, analysts are not expecting the US Fed to hike rates in its next meeting. Investors are now waiting for March 22 to see if the US Fed will hike interest rate. Their decision could influence the outcome of RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting in April.

    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    logo
    The Baseline
    16 Mar 2023
    Screener of the week: DVM strategy for Nifty500 delivered 33%+ CAGR

    Screener of the week: DVM strategy for Nifty500 delivered 33%+ CAGR

    By Abdullah Shah

    In this week’s screener, we look at the "high return, high durability" investment strategy. The screener chooses a maximum of five stocks from the Nifty 500 index each quarter with strong financial durability, reasonable valuation and good momentum. 

    The screener currently has stocks like HCL Technologies, Oil India, Hindustan Aeronautics, Zydus Lifesciences and Firstsource Solutions.

    We performed two backtests on the screener to check its past performance. The backtests ran with a quarterly portfolio review frequency (change stocks every quarter) against the benchmark of Nifty 500 from March 2013 to March 2023. 

    The difference between the two backtests was that for one test we considered only Nifty 500 stocks, and all stocks with a market cap of over Rs. 60 crore for the other.

    The backtest with Nifty 500 stocks gave cumulative returns of 1,751.2% over 10 years, with a return CAGR of 33.84%. The average stock return was 14.4%, with a total of 82 winners and 62 losers. Ceat gave the highest returns of 428.8%. The maximum drawdown of the strategy was 30.5% in the September 2022 quarter. 

    The backtest with all stocks beat the Nifty 500 strategy with higher cumulative returns and CAGR. However, this strategy comes with added risks, as its maximum drawdown is higher at 55.6%. It also has a higher number of losers (76) against 86 winners. Choosing all stocks may also include stocks with low delivery volumes. So the Nifty500 universe is more realistic. 

    You can find some popular screenershere

    2
    Copy LinkShare onShare on Share on Share on
     
    more
    loading
    Logo Trendlyne

    Stay ahead of the market

    Company

    PrivacyDisclaimerTerms of Use Contact Us

    Resources

    Blog FAQsStock Market Widgets

    Copyright © 2025 Giskard Datatech Pvt Ltd