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The Baseline
10 Apr 2024
Chart of the week: The biggest wealth destroyers of FY24
By Satyam Kumar

Over the past year, the Indian equity market has seen remarkable growth, highlighted by the Nifty 500 index rising 39.1% in FY24. But as always, the rising tide lifted some boats higher, while others sprung leaks. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we take a look at companies that saw big declines in their share prices, underperforming the index and eating into investors' wealth in FY24.

At the end of FY24, 45 Nifty 500 companies feature in the Wealth Destroyers screener, which looks for negative share price changes in the past year. The chemicals and petrochemicals sector had a difficult year and dominates this list with the highest number (eleven) of wealth destroyers. These include UPL, Navin Fluorine International, Atul and Aether Industries among others. 

Retailing and logistics companies also faced challenges with above-average inflation in FY24, which peaked in July 2023 at 7.4%. However, central banks worldwide are trying to bring inflation down by keeping interest rates higher. Still, rising geopolitical tensions, and crude production cuts by OPEC+ have kept inflation sticky.

Regulatory issues trigger sell-off in Paytm and Rajesh Exports

In the gems and jewellery industry, which rose 78.4% in the past year, Rajesh Exports depreciated by 50.7%. The company is involved in various compliance issues, including instances of missing documents during earnings filings, which were further compounded by declining revenues. Their net profit for Q3FY24 slumped 97% YoY at Rs 12.4 crore. According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, Rajesh Exports fell to a 5-year low at Rs 261 on March 28, 2024.

Similarly, internet software and services company, One97 Communications faced a significant setback following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) directive on January 31. The RBI ordered Paytm Payments Bank to cease banking services due to persistent non-compliance concerns. However, the stock has been stabilizing after its Founder & CEO, Vijay Shekhar Sharma resigned from the Payments Bank board. At the same time, the company also withdrew its nominee and the bank’s future business is to be led by a reconstituted board. The company’s share price has gone down 39.1% in the past quarter.

Weak demand and Chinese competition hurt the chemical industry’s profits

The chemical sector faced continued price pressures in the past year, mainly due to a weak and erratic monsoon. As a result, major agrochemical company UPL posted a net loss of Rs 1,217 crore in Q3FY24, compared to a profit of Rs 1,087 crore in Q3FY23. 

Another contributing factor was a sharp decrease in price realisation, and higher supplies from Chinese competitors as Covid-related restrictions eased. 

Commodity chemicals company, Navin Fluorine International declined due to industry-wide channel destocking and inventory reductions. As a result, the company’s net profit fell 26.8% YoY to Rs 78 crore in Q3FY24. Navin Fluorine’s share price has slumped by 25.8% in the past year. Meanwhile, specialty chemicals company, Atul is down 14% in the past year, with a fall of 15.1% in the past quarter. This company has also witnessed its net profits fall 32.5% YoY in Q3FY24.

Sticky inflation eats into logistics and retail companies' revenue

As inflation in India peaked in 2023, people started paring down their discretionary spending. As demand softened, footwear company Campus Activewear saw its net profit contract 48.4% YoY in Q3FY24 at Rs 24.9 crore. At the same time, Vedant Fashions, also known as Manyavar, witnessed its sales in 9MFY24 increase only marginally to Rs 1,050 crore. However, the company saw its net profit in 9MFY24 fell 25.4% YoY to Rs 320 crore. This ethnic wear manufacturer witnessed its share price fall 24.8% in the past quarter because wedding-related consumption remained muted in FY24, unlike FY23, due to the lower number of wedding dates and the broader impact of consumption slowdown.

Meanwhile, logistics company Allcargo also declined 15.4% in the past year. This is because their net profit in Q3FY24 fell by 93% YoY to Rs 11 crore. This was on the back of significant losses incurred in some of the markets in the US and Germany. The company expects global trade to revive in Q2FY25. 

Edible oils company, Adani Wilmar’s share price slumped after the Hindenburg report came out on January 24 last year, which alleged that the Adani group was manipulating and inflating stock prices. Making matters worse, Wilmar’s net profit in 9MFY24 went down by 76% YoY to Rs 122 crore. The company’s revenue in 9MFY24 decreased 13% YoY to Rs 36,539 crore. This contraction in revenue was mainly due to weak demand in the edible oil segment (contributing 75% to its revenue) and lower product prices.

A cancelled merger creates major hurdles for Zee Entertainment

Finally, media company Zee Entertainment has fallen 28.8% in the past year and 46.2% in the past quarter mainly because Sony Group’s India unit called off its proposed merger amid questions around fund diversion and corporate governance.

Adding to its woes, Reliance Industries entered into a joint venture with Walt Disney on February 28 to merge Viacom18 and Star India. This deal which resulted in a media behemoth worth Rs 70,352 crore, will negatively impact Zee as it would be difficult for the company to scale up its market share. The lesson here is that even in a rising economy and a surging stock market, there are many stumbles – self-inflicted and otherwise. 

Trendlyne Marketwatch US
Trendlyne Marketwatch US
10 Apr 2024

Markets closed down today . Dow Jones was trading at 38804.03 (12.7, 0.0%) , S&P 500 was trading at 5197.44 (2.3, 0.0%) while the broader US Tech Composite was trading at 16269.89 (10.1, 0.1%)

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Selina Hospitality PLC. (0.10, 150%), Sonic Foundry, Inc. (0.02, 100%) and Moatable Inc - ADR (0.40, 90.5%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include PGT Innovations Inc (0, -100%), MiX Telematics Ltd - ADR (0, -100%) and two - Ordinary Shares - Class A (0, -100%).

IXIX-CFD: highs, lows and moving averages

15 stocks outperformed, hitting 52 week highs, Stocks touching their year highs included - NRG Energy Inc. (72.56, -1.7%), Emerson Electric Co. (114.37, -0.3%), Packaging Corp Of America (189.54, -0.6%) and Alphabet Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class C (157.75, 1.0%).

17 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Palo Alto Networks Inc (278.25, 3.6%) and Revvity Inc. (110.18, 3.5%).

3 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Northrop Grumman Corp. (454.20, -0.5%) and Dollar Tree Inc (127.67, -0.4%).

143 stocks are currently overbought in RSI including Palo Alto Networks Inc (278.25, 3.6%), Revvity Inc. (110.18, 3.5%) and Boston Properties, Inc. (65.41, 3.4%).

150 stocks are currently oversold in RSI including Northrop Grumman Corp. (454.20, -0.5%) and Dollar Tree Inc (127.67, -0.4%).

Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
09 Apr 2024
Market closes flat, Natco Pharma receives a warning letter from US FDA
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,642.75 (-23.6, -0.1%), BSE Sensex closed at 74,683.70 (-58.8, -0.1%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,790.70 (-28.4, -0.1%). Of the 2,058 stocks traded today, 774 were in the positive territory and 1,254 were negative.

Indian indices fell from their day highs and closed flat. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 2.2% and closed at 11.4 points. Sterlite Technologies surged and closed in the green after its board approved a qualified institutional placement (QIP) of Rs 1,000 crore, with a floor price of Rs 119 per share.

Nifty Smallcap 100 closed in the green, while the Nifty Midcap 100 closed lower. Nifty Metal and Nifty Bank closed higher than their Monday close. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Metals & Mining emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 1.8%.

Major Asian indices closed in the green, except for India’s BSE Sensex index closing flat. European indices traded flat or lower amid mixed global cues. US index futures traded flat, indicating a cautious start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures also traded flat after closing lower on a volatile day on Monday.

  • Exide Industries sees a long buildup in its April 25 future series as its open interest rises 28.4% with a put-call ratio of 0.9.

  • Bank of America gives an 'underperform' rating to One97 Communications with a target price of Rs 400. The brokerage expects Paytm to see gradual growth in its lending business.

  • JSW Energy, Carborundum Universal, Cochin Shipyard, and Torrent Poweroutperform their respective industries by more than 14% in the past month.

  • JTL Industries is rising as it acquires a 67% stake in Nabha Steels and Metals for Rs 70 crore. This will enable the company to expand its product portfolio and explore new market segments.

  • Anil Gupta, CMD of KEI Industries, gives revenue guidance of 15–16% and sees EBITDA margins of around 10.5–11% for FY25. He adds that geopolitical issues have not impacted the company's exports and expects exports to grow substantially in FY25 compared to FY24.

  • PSU bank stocks like Punjab & Sind Bank, Indian Bank, Union Bank of India and Bank of India are falling in trade. All constituents of Nifty PSU Bank are trading in the red.

  • KRChoksey downgrades Bandhan Bank to ‘Hold’ and lowers the target price to Rs 193. The brokerage believes that the retirement of CS Ghosh as MD & CEO will create ambiguity in the bank’s future strategy.

  • Sterlite Technologies surges as its board approves a qualified institutional placement (QIP) of Rs 1,000 crore, with a floor price of Rs 119 per share.

  • Morgan Stanley maintains its 'Overweight' rating on Tata Motors with a target price of Rs 1,013. The brokerage notes the slowdown in global EV and JLR's Q4 sales. It highlights that a rapid EV transition could have disrupted business severely. However, a slower EV adoption pace would be beneficial for the Free Cash Flow (FCF) outlook and capital return profile of the firm.

  • Natco Pharma falls as it receives a warning letter from US FDA after a current good manufacturing practices inspection at its Kothur manufacturing facility.

  • Ajmera Realty rises to an all-time high of Rs 863 as its Q4FY24 sales jump 104% YoY to Rs 287 crore. The collections for the quarter increase by 91% YoY to Rs 197 crore.

  • Maruti Suzuki India expands its manufacturing capability at the Manesar plant by adding 1,00,000 units. The plant now has a total capacity of 9,00,000 vehicles per annum.

  • Reports suggest that 3.4 crore shares of Axis Bank, amounting to Rs 3,580 crore, change hands in a block deal. Bain Capital is the likely seller in this deal.

  • IRB Infrastructure's toll collection increases 30% YoY to Rs 480.9 crore in March 2024, compared to Rs 370 crore in March 2023.

  • Metal stocks like Hindustan Copper, Steel Authority of India, National Aluminium and Vedanta are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index, Nifty Metal, is also trading in the green.

  • Copthall Mauritius Investment sells a 1.1% stake (around 67 lakh shares) in RBL Bank, amounting to approximately Rs 171 crore, in a bulk deal on Monday. Meanwhile, Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius buys a stake in the company.

  • BSE Sensex crosses the 75,000 mark for the first time, reaching an all-time high of 75,124.3, marking a gain of 381.8 points. The Nifty 50 also hits its record high of 22,768.4 today.
  • Sula Vineyards rises as its revenue increases by 10% YoY to Rs 131.8 crore in Q4FY24. Wine tourism revenue improves 31% YoY. The company also announces the acquisition of N D Wines.

  • SJVN’s arm, SJVN Green Energy, signs a new Joint Venture (JV) agreement with Assam Power Distribution Co to develop renewable energy projects/parks.

  • Dilip Buildcon is rising as it bags an order worth Rs 1,092.5 crore from Haryana Rail Infrastructure Development Corp to construct a 21.1 km long railway line between Prithla and Dhulawat.

  • Gland Pharma declines more than 3% as reports suggest that 90.8 lakh shares (5.5% equity), amounting to Rs 1,590 crore, change hands in a large trade. Nicomac Machinery & RP Advisory Services are the likely sellers in this deal.

  • Mohnish Pabrai sells a 4.5% stake in Sunteck Realty in Q4FY24 and now holds 2.2%. He also cut his stake in Rain Industries to below 1% from 4.4% held in Q3FY24.

  • Strides Pharma Science receives US FDA approval for Fluoxetine tablets, used in treating depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder, some eating disorders, and panic attacks. It has a market size of $23.9 million.

  • Ashish Kacholia cuts his stake in ADF Foods to below 1% in Q4FY24. He held a 1.2% stake in Q3FY24.

  • Godrej Properties' bookings grow 135% YoY to Rs 9,500 crore in Q4FY24 and 84% YoY to over Rs 22,500 crore in FY24.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Hindustan Zinc Ltd. (398.40, 15.7%), Vedanta Ltd. (338, 4.6%) and Godrej Properties Ltd. (2,704.50, 4.5%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Bosch Ltd. (30,067.90, -3.3%), Gland Pharma Ltd. (1,800.35, -3.2%) and Supreme Industries Ltd. (4,183.75, -2.9%).

Volume Rockets

22 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Hindustan Zinc Ltd. (398.40, 15.7%), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (2,097.35, 11.0%) and Sterlite Technologies Ltd. (141.25, 10.9%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Bosch Ltd. (30,067.90, -3.3%), Gland Pharma Ltd. (1,800.35, -3.2%) and Five-Star Business Finance Ltd. (740.40, -2.6%).

Can Fin Homes Ltd. (810.55, 1.5%) was trading at 9.9 times of weekly average. BASF India Ltd. (3,724.25, 2.9%) and KSB Ltd. (4133.15, 3.8%) were trading with volumes 8.0 and 7.5 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

41 stocks hit their 52-week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Ltd. (897.50, 3.3%), BASF India Ltd. (3,724.25, 2.9%) and Bharat Electronics Ltd. (228.15, 2.1%).

6 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Aarti Drugs Ltd. (513.05, 5.3%) and Balaji Amines Ltd. (2,268.35, 4.0%). 4 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Kama Holdings Ltd. (2,690, -2.3%) and Esab India Ltd. (5139.90, -1.3%).

Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
08 Apr 2024
Market closes at an all-time high, Gland Pharma receives US FDA approval for Eribulin Mesylate Injection
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,666.30 (152.6, 0.7%), BSE Sensex closed at 74,742.50 (494.3, 0.7%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,819.10 (104, 0.5%). Of the 2,098 stocks traded today, 899 were gainers and 1,151 were losers.

Indian indices maintained their gains from the afternoon session and closed at all-time highs. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose by 2.4% and closed at 11.6 points. Exide Industries partnered with Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp via its subsidiary Exide Energy Solutions to localise electric vehicle battery production in India.

Nifty Midcap 100 closed flat, while Nifty Smallcap 100 closed higher following the benchmark index closing flat. Nifty Auto and Nifty Realty closed higher than Friday’s closing level. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, automobile and auto components emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 1.6%.

Most European indices trade in the green. US indices futures trade flat, indicating a cautious start. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has stated that the US will not accept Chinese imports decimating new industries. While she did not talk about any new restrictions, she stressed the issue of China's surplus industrial capacity surpassing domestic demand.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Siemens, City Union Bank, Thermax and ABB India are in the overbought zone.

  • NIIT appoints Pankaj Prabhakar Jathar as its Chief Executive Officer, effective July 1, 2024.

  • KRChoksey upgrades its rating on Glenmark Pharmaceuticals to 'Buy' and raises the target price to Rs 1,266 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 22.2%. The brokerage highlights the company’s continued focus on core therapeutic areas such as dermatology, respiratory, and oncology. It forecasts a revenue CAGR of 11.2% for FY23-26E.

  • Gland Pharma receives US FDA approval for Eribulin Mesylate Injection used in the treatment of breast cancer. The product has US sales worth $92 million over the 12 months ending in February 2024.

  • Canara Robeco Mutual Fund sells a 0.7% stake in Vijaya Diagnostic Centre for approx Rs 46 crore in a bulk deal.

  • Realty stocks like DLF, Macrotech Developers, Godrej Properties, and Sunteck Realty are rising in trade. The broader Nifty Realty index touches its 52-week high of 963.8.

  • Jammu & Kashmir Bank is falling despite its total deposits rising by 10.4% YoY to Rs 1.3 lakh crore in Q4FY24. During the quarter, its gross advances increase by 12.7% YoY to Rs 97,072.5 crore

  • Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating on GAIL (India) to 'Overweight' with a target price of Rs 254. The brokerage anticipates the company's market cap to double by 2026 as its significance in India's energy transition grows.

  • Godrej Properties hits its all-time high of Rs 2692 as it sells homes worth Rs 3,000 crore following the recent launch of its project, Godrej Zenith, in Gurugram.

  • Adani Total Gas’ arm Adani Total Energies E-Mobility signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with MG Motor India to set up charging stations at upcoming MG dealerships

  • REC’s loan sanctions rise by 33.7% YoY to Rs 3.6 lakh crore in FY24, of which renewable sanctions grow 6x YoY to Rs 1.4 lakh crore. Its disbursements jump 66.7% YoY to Rs 1.6 lakh crore during the year.

  • BSE-listed companies register a record high market capitalization of Rs 400 lakh crore in nine months, up from Rs 300 lakh crore. Since 2014, market capitalization has jumped by 300%.

  • Aster DM Healthcare rises as its board considers declaring a special dividend on account of the segregation of the GCC business through the sale by its arm, Affinity Holdings.

  • Exide Industries surges as Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp reportedly partner with Exide Energy Solutions to localise electric vehicle battery production in India.

  • Auto stocks like Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Bajaj Auto are rising in trade. The broader Nifty Auto index is also trading in the green, touching its all-time high of Rs 21,980.

  • Voltas reaches a new 52-week high of Rs 1,392 after achieving the sales milestone of 2 million ACs in FY24, marking a volume growth of 35%. The company's volume growth stands at 72% in AC sales during Q4. Analysts attribute this success to Voltas' focus on expanding its geographical reach, increasing penetration in South and East India, and utilizing e-commerce channels.

  • Force Motors rises as its March 2024 domestic wholesales rise 33.8% YoY to 3,248 units, while exports grow almost 4X YoY to 420 units.

  • JSW Steel’s India crude steel production increases by 3% YoY to 6.5 million tonnes in Q4FY24. Capacity utilisation at its Indian operations stands at 93% during the quarter.

  • Muthoot Microfin is rising as its AUM grows 32% YoY to Rs 12,194 crore in FY24. The company’s disbursements also rise 32% YoY to Rs 10,662 crore.

  • Retail sales in the automotive industry rise 3.1% YoY to 21.2 lakh units in March, according to data from the Federation of Automotive Dealers' Association (FADA). Two-wheeler retail sales are up 5.4% YoY, while car sales see a 6% YoY decline. FADA notes that the two-wheeler segment displays resilience amid economic uncertainty.

  • Bandhan Bank is falling as its Managing Director (MD) and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Chandra Shekhar Ghosh is retiring, effective July 9, 2024. Reports suggest that an external candidate may be appointed as the new MD and CEO.

  • Ashish Kacholia sells a 0.2% stake in Vaibhav Global in Q4FY24. He now holds a 1.1% stake in the company.

  • Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's portfolio sells a 0.6% stake in Canara Bank in Q4FY24. It now holds a 1.5% stake in the company.

  • Wipro's Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Managing Director (MD) Thierry Delaporte resigns on Saturday and Srinivas Pallia is appointed as his successor, effective May 31, 2024.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Info Edge (India) Ltd. (6,225.40, 9.7%), FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd. (179.30, 6.4%) and Voltas Ltd. (1,306.85, 6.1%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Bandhan Bank Ltd. (184.95, -6.3%), REC Ltd. (453.50, -3.8%) and Union Bank of India (155, -3.3%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

19 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Exide Industries Ltd. (377.15, 17.2%), Info Edge (India) Ltd. (6,225.40, 9.7%) and PNC Infratech Ltd. (464.30, 8.1%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Bandhan Bank Ltd. (184.95, -6.3%), MphasiS Ltd. (2,454.20, -2.3%) and Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd. (1,348.65, -2.0%).

Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Ltd. (869.05, 7.2%) was trading at 15.3 times of weekly average. Godrej Industries Ltd. (857.30, 5.3%) and Gland Pharma Ltd. (1,859.60, 6.0%) were trading with volumes 11.2 and 7.7 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

49 stocks hit their 52-week highs, while 2 stocks hit their 52-week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - BASF India Ltd. (3,620.65, -0.2%), Indus Towers Ltd. (327.80, 4.4%) and Blue Star Ltd. (1,407.25, 3.2%).

Stocks making new 52-week lows included - Bata India Ltd. (1,346.15, -1.0%) and Dabur India Ltd. (503.05, -1.0%).

11 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Tejas Networks Ltd. (799.25, 4.1%) and IDFC Ltd. (121.45, 3.4%). 6 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Balaji Amines Ltd. (2,182.10, -2.5%) and Esab India Ltd. (5,211, -1.8%).

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The Baseline
05 Apr 2024
Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 5, 2024

1. Latent View Analytics:

This data processing services company rose by 8.2% over the past week after it acquired a 70% stake in Indian IT services company Decision Point on March 28 for $39.1 million (approx. Rs 326.3 crore). Decision Point is a leader in business improvement using artificial intelligence (AI), and revenue growth management solutions. The acquisition,Latent View says, will give it a foothold in the retail CPG segment. It will also give access to new clients and geographies. The company appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding in the past month.

Decision Point will also bring new large clients in the Retail CPG vertical, and in new regions like LatAm, US (its clients are largely US firms and are billed in $) and India. As a higher margin business, Decision Point can play a role in restoring LatentView’s operating margins to its historic levels of 32.1% (stands at 24.4% in FY23). 

Speaking on the acquisition, the management commented, “Decision Point derives about 8% revenue from Beagle GPT (the GenAI app used by Fortune 500 retail CPG clients), which helps the company have multiple revenue streams. After the integration, the retail CPG segment will become the second largest (20% of revenue by FY25) vertical for the company.”

Post the acquisition, Anand Rathi Wealth Management maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 630. This indicates a potential upside of 14.6%. The brokerage expects the company to maintain industry-leading growth in Q4FY24, despite the prevailing tough environment, followed by strong growth in FY25 supported by Decision Point’s integration (expected to be completed in Q1FY25).

2. AU Small Finance Bank:

This small finance bank has risen by 4.8% in the last two days after releasing its Q4 business update. Its total deposits have risen 26% YoY to Rs 87,182 crore and gross advances grew by 25% YoY to Rs 73,999 crore. 

The management noted that the macro environment has remained challenging in Q4FY24, due to intense competition among banks to mobilize deposits. However, the expansion in the bank’s business groups, such as urban branch banking (which focuses on the urban market and constitutes 79% of deposits) and swadesh banking (which focuses on the core market and makes up 21% of deposits) have driven deposit growth during the quarter. 

AU Bank has risen by 12.4% over the past week, outperforming its industry by 8.3%. On Monday, the bank announced the merger with Fincare SFB, after receiving approval from the RBI on March 4. Fincare has previously served a total customer base of approximately 54 lakh across 1,292 branches, with a strong presence in South India. After the merger, AU Bank’s total branch count will reach around 2,334, serving over 1 crore customers. 

The merger enables AU Bank to expand into new geographical areas, especially in South India. This increased presence will facilitate the distribution of its products and services to a larger customer base, and help strengthen its market position in the south. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, the bank’s revenue is expected to grow by 26% YoY in FY24.

Motilal Oswal reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 720. This implies an upside of 13.4%. It believes that the overall business of the bank will become more diversified,  gaining presence in high-yielding MFI (micro-finance) and gold loan. 

3. Tata Technologies:

This software and services company has surged by 9.9% in the past week following its joint venture (JV) announcement with BMW Group. This partnership involves building a software hub with a 1,000+ workforce to provide the BMW Group with automotive software and digital engineering services. JM Financial estimates that the JV could add 4-5 percent to their bottom line. 

This collaboration is also expected to diversify the company’s client base, which is currently dominated by Tata group firms that account for approximately 33% of revenue as of Q3FY24.

Tata Tech’s IPO worth Rs 3,042.5 crore was oversubscribed 69.4 times and debuted with substantial gains of 162.6%. Currently, the stock trades 124.3% above its issue price since November 2023. Price consolidation in the past few months was mainly because of investors cashing in on bumper listing gains.  Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue to grow by 14% YoY in FY24. At the same time, it forecasts its net profit to increase by 12.5% YoY. 

The share of electric vehicles (EVs) in India's auto sales has surged to 6.4% in 2023 from 1.75% in 2021, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards EVs over the past two years. This suggests that India has crossed the tipping point in mass adoption of EVs, with sales now exceeding 5% of overall auto sales. Tata Technologies, with its extensive expertise in automotive technology, is well-positioned to capitalise on this EV trend.

CEO, Warren Harris, says "We see very strong tailwinds as the industry pivots towards alternative propulsion systems and connected services." Despite some OEMs suggesting a slowdown in EV sector growth, Harris remains upbeat, believing otherwise from a product engineering perspective. Additionally, he highlighted optimism in the aerospace sector, citing their relationship with Airbus.

Joindre Capital has initiated a 'Buy' rating on Tata Technologies. They believe that the company's expertise in the engineering, research and development (ER&D) space, along with its long-standing relationships with OEMs worldwide, increasing outsourcing demand, and rising EV adoption will drive growth.

4. Mahindra & Mahindra

This cars & utility vehicles manufacturer rose by 4.8% over the past week. The company recently signed an agreement with Volkswagen group, where it will equip its new electric platform INGLO with electric components from Volkswagen´s Modular electric drive matrix (MEB) and unified cells. The company plans to launch five all-electric SUVs on INGLO, starting December 2024.The company also signed an Memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Adani Total Energies E-Mobility to set up EV charging infrastructure across the country. 

Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company's net profit to grow by 27.8% to Rs 1,980 crore in Q4FY24 due to its strong PV order book in Q4FY24, while revenue should improve by 6.7% YoY. The firm beat the Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimates for Q3FY24 for net profit by 5.9%, but missed the revenue estimate by 0.3%.

The company’s total wholesales for FY24 rose by 18.1% YoY to 8.3 lakh units and the passenger vehicles domestic wholesales rose by 12.9% YoY to 40,631 units. But rural demand has been weak, driving YoY declines in  commercial vehicles, 3W and tractor wholesales – these fell 6.1%, 7.3%, 27.8% respectively. 

However, demand is reportedly strong for its new launches, specially the SUV’s priced above Rs 10-12 lakh. The company is ramping up its SUV production capacity to 49k units per month, from the current 40-42k units. 

Rajesh Jejurikar, ED & CEO, Auto & Farm Sectors of the firm, said, “ New bookings continue to be healthy at around 50,000 per month and the order backlog stands at around 2.3 lakh units. The rural economy is experiencing challenges, but tractor subsidies have decreased, benefiting the industry. Farm machinery growth is 29%, with a goal of 40% this year. In the urban space there are segments, particularly the rich, where we are seeing increased demand for certain vehicles.”

ICICI Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ for Mahindra & Mahindra with a target price of Rs 2,225. The brokerage maintains its bullish stance on M&M due to the company's market leadership in the SUV and tractor segments. The brokerage expects sales to grow at 14.2% CAGR in FY23-26E amid 9.4% blended volume CAGR. The adjusted PAT is expected to grow to Rs 11,496 crore by FY26E.

The brokerage currently values M&M based on Sum Of The Parts (SOTP) at Rs 2,225 (11x FY26E standalone EV/EBITDA and Rs 300 per share value accruing for the Electric PV arm).

5. Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL):

This department stores company rose by 15.5% in the past week. The rise came after the company announced a vertical demerger of its Madura Fashion & Lifestyle (MFL) business into a separate listed entity. This move aims to create two growth engines, with distinct plans to create value and allocate capital. Managing Director Ashish Dikshit said, “The restructuring will help the company focus on different strategies for each business segment.”

MFL’s portfolio consists of lifestyle, casual wear, and sportswear brands like Louis Phillippe, Van Heusen, Allen Solly, Peter England, American Eagle, Forever 21, and Reebok. After the demerger, ABFRL’s portfolio will consist of value retail, ethnic, luxury, and digital brands. The demerger will allow ABFRL to focus on high-growth segments where there are tailwinds from a shift to premiumization, the rise of super-premium and luxury brands, and rapid growth in digital-first brands.

Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the firm to report a loss of Rs 293.2 crore in Q4FY24 and expects revenue to fall 16.9% YoY. The company reported a net loss of Rs 186.9 crore in Q4FY23. Analysts are cautious due to the company’s rising debt and inefficient working capital management. They believe that any misstep can lead to inventory liquidation-led margin loss or derailed growth. ABFRL also appears in a screener for stocks with low Piotroski scores (companies with weak financials).

Axis Securities maintains a ‘Hold’ on the company on the back of near-term challenges, such as a slowdown in discretionary spending due to lower demand from tier-2/3/4 cities, a sharp increase in debt, and an increase in ad spending.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.