Trendlyne Blog: The Baseline, Latest on stock market and finance in India and the world.

09 Jan 2026

Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 9, 2026

1. Tata Motors (TMCV):

Thiscommercial vehicle manufacturer rose 6.4% over two trading sessions after itsbusiness update on January 1. The company reported a sharp rise in December sales, which surged 25% YoY to 42,508 units and climbed nearly 20% from the previous month.

Managementsaid that growth was driven by stronger economic activity rather than temporary factors. MD and CEO Girish Wagh said sales momentum began with the GST 2.0 rollout and the festive season in Q2FY26, and continued into Q3FY26. He added that demand improved after the monsoon, as construction and mining activity picked up, alongside steady demand from core industries and the auto logistics sector.

Looking ahead, Waghsaid, “We expect demand to strengthen in Q4FY26 across most commercial vehicle segments.” He added that “the government’s sustained infrastructure push” should drive demand in 2026.

On November 12, 2025, TMCVlisted on the stock exchanges at a 26% premium following itsdemerger on 1st October fromTata Motors (now Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles). The demerger separates the fast-growing passenger vehicle and electric vehicle businesses from the more stable, cash-generating commercial vehicle (CV) business. The split allows investors to value the two businesses separately.

One keychallenge for TMCV remains the light commercial vehicle (LCV) goods segment, where market share has fallen from around 40% in FY22 to around 28% in H1FY26. Mahindra & Mahindra has expanded aggressively here in pickups and small commercial vehicles.

Facing pressure in the LCV segment, managementexpects a gradual market share recovery, supported by higher retail volumes, new launches, and the full pass-through of GST benefits to customers.

InCred Equities recentlyupgraded the stock to “Add” with a target of Rs 513. The brokerage highlighted improving CV demand, GST-driven cost efficiencies, easing interest rates, and stronger industrial activity as factors that could support small truck demand and help Tata Motors regain market share through FY28.

2. Divi's Laboratories:

This pharma company rose 4.3% last week after Citi set a price target of Rs 9,140, implying an upside of nearly 38%. Citi said 2026 could be an “inflection year” for the company, as growth starts picking up after a slower period. The stock has gained around 12% over the past year.

The brokerage expects Divi’s product pipeline to support growth over the next 12 months. This includes new GLP-1 products for obesity and diabetes that work in a similar way to popular weight-loss medicines such as Zepbound and semaglutide-based drugs, and are expected to be launched in 2026. The company’s ‘generics’ business (producing off-patent drugs) is also expected to bounce back as patents on several major global medicines expire.

Citi noted that quarterly profits may remain uneven due to the nature of Divi’s B2B business. However, the long-term outlook remains positive. The brokerage believes the company’s revenue and EBITDA could triple or even quadruple over FY26-30.

In Q2, Divi’s net profit and revenue beat Forecaster estimates by 15.3% and 4.4%, respectively. The generics segment, which accounts for about 44% of total revenue, continued to grow despite pricing pressure. The company managed this through backward integration, coupled with higher sales volume. Looking ahead, Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects Q4 net profit to rise 3.6% to Rs 615 crore, with revenue growth of 16%.

CEO Kiran Divi said, “We are facing pricing pressure in the generics business, but volumes are stable. Pricing is expected to stabilise over the next few quarters, with backward integration at the Kakinada unit (in Andhra Pradesh) helping manage costs.” He added that FY26 capex will be higher than the earlier guidance of Rs 2,000 crore, with Rs 1,550 crore already spent in H1FY26.

3. Hindalco Industries:

This aluminium company rose over 1% on January 6 after Geojit BNP Paribas upgraded its rating to 'Buy' with a target of Rs 1,034. The brokerage expects strong metal prices and rising domestic demand to support earnings in the coming months.

Geojit said the company is strengthening its downstream business by making finished aluminium and copper products, which earn better margins than raw metal. Higher use of recycled metal is also helping cut costs and reduce earnings swings. This strategy led to a 69% jump in downstream margins in Q2. Rising domestic demand, lower GST, and firm global metal prices further support growth.

Global aluminium and copper prices have risen sharply this year, reaching $2,979 per tonne and $12,466 per tonne, respectively. It’s worth noting here however, that metal prices tend to be volatile, and any pullback in a major market like China could force rapid downward moves. To protect margins amid price volatility, the company has locked in prices for 49% of its Q4FY26 aluminium sales at $2,760 per tonne.

In Q2FY26, Hindalco’s revenue rose 13.5% YoY, driven by its India aluminium business and US-based subsidiary Novelis (industrial aluminum smelting company). Net profit increased 21%, supported by a better mix of higher-value products.

Hindalco’s Aditya Smelter Phase 2 project is expected to add 1.9 lakh tonnes (14% of existing capacity) of aluminium capacity by 2029. The company is also developing three captive coal mines, which are expected to start supplying power from 2026 and help lower energy costs. At Novelis, renewable energy capacity is set to nearly double by the end of the year, reducing operating costs and tariff risks.

On these initiatives, CEO Satish Pai said, “The expansion should deliver healthy returns even if margins soften slightly. The focus remains on keeping net debt below 2x EBITDA while executing the Rs 83,000 crore capex programme through 2029.”

4. Devyani International:

This restaurant stock slid 9.7% over the past week as investors questioned whether the proposed merger with Sapphire Foods India could revive weak demand at existing outlets. Same-store sales declined across KFC and Pizza Hut stores operated by both companies in H1FY26, as intense local competition, aggressive discounting, and shifting consumer preferences have continued to hurt footfalls.

On January 1, Devyani’s board approved the merger of Sapphire Foods with itself. Under the scheme, Sapphire shareholders will receive 177 Devyani shares for every 100 shares held. In addition, Arctic International, a Devyani subsidiary, will acquire an 18.5% stake in Sapphire, consolidating control over the combined business.

As part of the broader transaction, Devyani will also acquire 19 KFC restaurants in Hyderabad for Rs 90 crore and pay a one-time fee of Rs 320 crore to Yum! Brands. This payment covers merger approvals, and grants Devyani rights to operate in new territories. Management expects the consolidation to improve scale and bargaining power across brands and geographies.

Commenting on the merger’s impact, Promoter and Chairman Ravi Kant Jaipuria said, “The merged entity will have more than 3,000 stores globally and an annual turnover of approximately Rs 8,000 crore.” He added that the integration could generate annual cost savings of about Rs 220 crore from the second year onward through efficiencies in procurement, logistics, and overheads.

Motilal Oswal remains constructive on the long-term benefits of the merger and maintains a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 180. It expects the combined entity to accelerate store expansion, lower raw-material costs, and improve operating leverage. The brokerage forecasts revenue growth of about 12% and EBITDA growth of over 15% annually over FY26–28.

Recent financial performance, however, remains mixed. In Q2FY26, Devyani reported revenue growth of 12.6% YoY, aided by new store additions and the acquisition of Sky Gate Hospitality (parent co of Biryani By Kilo, Goila Butter Chicken, and The Bhojan). Yet the company posted a net loss due to elevated operating costs, higher raw-material prices such as cheese and flour, and lower margins from the newly acquired Sky Gate brands.

5. Coal India (CIL):

The stock of this coal & mining company rose by over 4% in the past week after its wholly owned subsidiary, Bharat Coking Coal (BCCL), announced its initial public offer (IPO). The Rs 1,071.1 crore issue, opening on January 9, is a complete offer-for-sale, with Coal India selling a 10% stake, or about 46.6 crore shares. The divestment is expected to generate around Rs 605 crore in profit, translating into a 130% return on investment.

Director M.K. Agarwal stated that the IPO proceeds will fund CIL’s Rs 16,000 crore capital expenditure plan for FY26. Following a directive from the Prime Minister's Office, the company aims to list all eight of its subsidiaries by 2030 to improve transparency and unlock asset value.

Operations in the second quarter were challenging, with revenue rising just 0.5% YoY due to an intense monsoon that disrupted mines in Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. Coal production between April and November 2025 reached 453.5 million tonnes, compared to 471 million tonnes in the same period last year.

Looking forward, Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects a significant revenue surge of 18.8% in Q3FY26. This optimistic outlook is supported by a recovery in operational momentum following a weather-disrupted first half. Analysts from Kotak Securities highlight that while production was initially hamstrung by an extended monsoon, offtake volumes have remained remarkably steady through the third quarter. This suggests that end-user demand, particularly from power and steel sectors, has not weakened, even as global commodity cycles fluctuate. The stock appears in a screener of companies with rising net cash flow and cash from operating activity.

Global brokerage firm Jefferies reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on Coal India and raised its target price to Rs 440, citing steady cash flows driven by demand from power and industrial users. It added that the stock remained an attractive defensive bet amid volatile metal prices.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

07 Jan 2026

Don't be boring, unless you are an investor

By Swapnil Karkare

Flashy screens, juicy market gossip, watching the Mumbai skyline from a high-rise office while I juggled phone calls: when I first started work at a stock market brokerage, this was the life I imagined. Movies like The Wolf of Wall Streetmade it look fast and glamorous.

But reality set in soon enough, that this is not what investing is. As my years in the stock market grew, it became clear that this job isn't meant to be exciting. In fact, excitement was usually a warning sign. The movies about the stock market were about as realistic as a Superman film.

The Nobel prize winning economist Paul Samuelson liked to say that investing should be boring. “Investing should be like watching paint dry. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”

Speaking of paint, the Asian Paints stock proves his point. This stock has been a boring compounder for decades. It doesn't double in a month like a crypto coin. But if you'd invested Rs. 10,000 in the stock in 2000 and forgot about it, it would be worth over Rs. 10 lakhs today, excluding dividends.

If 'boring' makes money, why do we chase short term trends and excitement so much?

People are impatient, and the internet has made it worse

Humans aren't built to think about the long-term - we tend to be impulsive creatures. The part of the brain that helps us plan and be patient, the prefrontal cortex, evolved relatively late.

Andy Haldane, the former Executive Director at the Bank of England, has linked this late 'patience breakthrough' to prosperity. He argues that people didn't progress out of just skill or hard work, but because human society as a whole learned to hold off on immediate pleasures, and plan for the future.

But impatience still stalks us every day, and the internet has not helped. We hear buzz about AI or defence stocks, or a smallcap rumour, and we often don't stop to consider before we rejig our portfolios.

Even experienced fund managers face this challenge. Because they have to show results every quarter, they end up chasing what’s hot right now. We say we want long-term wealth, but a small decline causes panic and a short rally feels meaningful.

Based on the math however, such FOMO is bad for you. A popular story about the US brokerage Fidelity suggests that the best investor is the dead investor: in an internal study, Fidelity reportedly found that their best performing investor accounts belonged to people who were dead, or had forgotten their passwords.

Fidelity never publicly confirmed this, but other studies show that investor accounts that trade the most tend to see lower returns than the overall market. Charlie Munger sums it up well: “The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.” Crypto or meme stocks might seem exciting, but sticking to steady options like index funds and long-term picks is what really grows money in the long run.

Beta as a boredom metric

One way to quantify boring investing is to look at a metric like beta, which measures a stock’s volatility compared to the overall market.

A stock with a beta of 2 typically moves at double the volatility of the index, moving 10% when the market moves 5%. A beta of 0.5 means a 2.5% move when the index moves 5%. So low-beta stocks have lower volatility than the index.

These so-called ‘boring’ stocks with low beta tend todeliver steady returns with lower risk. In the US, high-beta stocks gave about 30% more returns than low-beta ones in the last 50 years, but they came with almost triple the risk. After accounting for all that risk, the extra reward isn’t that great. In fact, avoiding the highest beta stocks could have given 5–6% more in returns each year.

I ran a simple beta analysis on Nifty 500 stocks for the past year. Low-beta stocks easily outperformed the high-beta ones in what we all know was a pretty volatile market.

In the past year, stocks with a beta under 1 (and median 0.79) posted positive median returns, whereas those with a beta over 1 (median 1.35) ended up with negative median returns. It contradicts the idea that higher-risk stocks should earn higher returns.

Valuations reinforce this point. Low-beta stocks traded at higher median P/E and P/B multiples. It seems that investors are paying a premium for stable cash flows, and downside protection.

Resisting the urge

For the last couple of years, SEBI has been issuing warnings about how the vast majority of young traders lose money in derivatives trading. But are people listening, when in the age of online trading and finfluencers, stock trading offers an easy dopamine rush? Holding back becomes a deliberate, conscious choice.

I leave you with a sports story: the economist Michael Bar-Eli did a famous analysis in 2009 on the performance of football goalkeepers. Statistically, he found that a goalkeeper's best chance of saving a penalty kick is to stay in the center of the net. This gives them a 33.3% save rate.

But in real life, goalkeepers stay in the center only 6.3% of the time, and dive left or right 94% of the time. Why? Because if they stand still and give up a goal, it looks like they didn't try. Even if they dive and miss, it seems like they "did something."

So next time you get a "trade now" notification, consider how an unnecessary dive can cost you the match.

View all polls show results

The Baseline

07 Jan 2026

India’s electric cars see growth amid tough competition in 2025

By Divyansh Pokharna

For years, India’s electric car market was a small space, where growth was heavily reliant on government subsidies, and a few early adopters willing to take on an unproven product.

In 2025, however, electric cars saw a jump in market share, accounting for 4.6% of all passenger vehicle sales, up from 2.6% in 2024. While still a small slice of the total car market, EVs are growing faster than petrol or diesel cars. It’s still tiny, of course: EVs in China make up over 50% of car sales.

The big story of 2025 however, is why people are buying. EV buyers are now comparing ownership costs, features and daily usability, and not just chasing subsidies. Competition has also increased as existing players expand their EV line-ups.

“EV penetration rose across most segments, except two-wheelers, even as overall vehicle retail demand remained soft,” said FADA president CS Vigneshwar. “This shows EV adoption is moving beyond early buyers into mass consumers and fleets. Continued policy support, accessible financing, and expansion of charging infrastructure will be key to growth in the coming months,” he added.

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at how India’s electric four-wheeler market evolved in 2025.

Buying cars for value, not just subsidies

In 2025, government discounts became less important. FAME-II subsidies for personal electric cars ended in March 2024, with no new scheme for four-wheelers. Instead, the government shifted its support toward manufacturing-linked incentives and building more charging stations.

Despite lower discounts, EV sales have continued to rise in big cities. A segment of buyers, mostly urban families with more than one car, now sees EVs as a smart choice for daily driving. These customers find electric cars cheaper to run and easier to maintain.

This growth is still mostly in big cities, where charging is easier to find. In smaller towns, people remain hesitant due to weak charging infrastructure and higher prices.

New rivals challenge Tata’s market leadership

Tata Motors has been the king of India’s electric cars for years, but its lead shrank in 2025. Over the year, Tata lost about 22 percentage points of its market share as rivals caught up. While its popular models, Nexon EV and Punch EV, still sell well, new buyers are looking at other brands.

MG Motor India gained ground in the market by offering tech-heavy cars like the ZS EV. It's traction signals less brand-loyal EV buyers, who are more willing to switch if the product provides better value in a similar price range.

Mahindra & Mahindra has also become a serious threat to Tata Motors. By launching new electric SUVs like the XUV 9e and BE 6e, Mahindra has tapped into India's love for big cars.

By mid-2025, the market became a multi-player race. No single company now controls the prices or the trends. This was a big shift from 2021, when Tata controlled over 90% of the EV market, while Mahindra’s share was below 1%.

“We continue to see solid customer interest in our battery electric vehicle (BEV) portfolio. Electric vehicles account for about 8.7% of our overall portfolio,” Mahindra Group CEO Anish Shah said during the company’s Q2FY26 earnings.

Among global brands, Hyundai and Kia have focused on selective premium models to test demand depth, while BYD has strengthened its niche among high-end buyers. Luxury brands like BMW focused on EVs for branding, even as most EV sales and competition happened in the mid-priced segment.

Premium demand sparks a debate over luxury taxes

In 2025, the "budget EV" took a backseat: the hottest segment is now cars priced between Rs 20 - 30 lakh. These buyers are willing to pay more for better software, longer range, and solid warranties.

But this shift toward premium cars has caught the eye of tax officials. A new proposal suggests raising taxes (GST) to 18% for mid-range EVs and a whopping 40% for luxury imports.

Car makers are worried. Tata Motors warned that higher taxes would slow down the shift to clean energy, while BMW said it could ruin the dream of local production. Even Tesla, which is finally opening Indian showrooms, faces a rocky start if these taxes are implemented.

Currently, the market is split: Tata leads with 43% share, followed by MG (24%) and Mahindra (21%). While the luxury segment (Mercedes and BMW) accounts for only 2%, their influence on technology and trends continues to shape the future of Indian roads.

Senior Director and Head of CareEdge Advisory & Research, Tanvi Shah, said, "India is well-positioned to accelerate EV adoption, with a strong pipeline of new model launches. Expanding charging infrastructure and battery localisation under the PLI scheme will support this growth."

The growing problem of low resale value

As the first wave of electric cars hit the used market in 2025, a new problem has appeared: they have lost value very quickly. Unlike petrol cars, used EVs are seeing their resale prices drop sharply.

The biggest concern for used-car buyers is battery health. Since the battery is the most expensive part of the car, people are scared to buy a used one without knowing its condition. Currently, there is no standard way to test a battery's "health." While many makers offer “lifetime” warranties of up to 15 years, these usually apply only to the first owner. If you buy a used EV, that warranty often shrinks significantly.

Technology is also moving so fast that older EVs quickly feel outdated. Newer models offer much faster charging and better range for the same price, making two-year-old cars look like old tech.

Finally, supply chain issues have returned. China’s limits on exporting certain minerals used in batteries caused some stress. While companies like Tata and Mahindra say they have enough stock for now, they are racing to find new suppliers to avoid future production delays.

These challenges, low resale value and supply risks, show that the EV journey in India still has hurdles to clear before it becomes truly mainstream.

The Baseline

06 Jan 2026

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 6, 2026

By Ruchir Sankhla

1. IDFC First Bank:

ICICI Direct upgrades this bank to a ‘Buy’ rating, with a target price of Rs 100, an upside of 18%. This upgrade reflects the bank's steady loan growth and increasing deposits. IDFC First Bank was formed in 2018 through the merger of IDFC and Capital First. Since then, the bank has steadily shifted its focus towards retail lending, which now accounts for 59% of its total loan book.

Loans jumped 19.7% in the first half of FY26, driven by home, vehicle, and business loans. Deposits grew even faster at 23.4%. Over half of these deposits are low-cost savings accounts. Analysts Vishal Narnolia and Parth Chintkindi expect loan growth to continue at 20% annually through FY28, backed by strong deposits and capital.

The bank recently raised Rs 7,500 crore, boosting its capital reserves. This financial cushion gives it the freedom to expand its retail loans, credit cards, and wealth management services without needing more cash soon.

Narnolia and Chintkindi note that profit margins may be tight for now due to changing loan rates and some stress in the microfinance sector. However, they expect a recovery in the second half of FY26.

2. Bank of Baroda:

Emkay retains its ‘Buy’ call on this PSU bank with a higher target price of Rs 350 per share, an upside of 14.7%. Analysts Anand Dama and Nikhil Vaishnav are optimistic, citing the bank’s healthy returns, strong capital buffer, and attractive valuations.

Management expects loan growth of 11–15%, fueled by its retail, MSME, and corporate divisions. Analysts highlight that growth in agriculture and a favourable exchange rate for its overseas business will also help. While growth was slow in Q2FY26, analysts predict a second-half rebound, driven by demand from renewable energy, data centres, and infrastructure projects.

The bank aims to keep its net interest margin stable at 2.8%. Dama and Vaishnav believe this is achievable through updated deposit rates, better loan recoveries, a higher share of the marginal cost of funds-based lending rate portfolio, and tax refunds. They project the bank's net interest income to grow 9.7% and net profit to grow 5.9% annually through FY28.

3. Ajanta Pharma:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 3,145, an upside of 10.6%. Analysts Tushar Manudhane and Eshita Jain note that the company consistently outperforms competitors with its branded generic drugs in India, Asia, and Africa. It is expanding into new regions and adding treatments for chronic conditions, while also strengthening its product range.

In India, the company’s sales team helps it grow 1–2% faster than the overall pharmaceutical market. It focuses on key areas like dermatology, pain management, and gynaecology, making smart acquisitions to bolster its offerings. With 120–150 new products approved each year, its pipeline for future growth remains full.

A new partnership with Biocon to supply the popular weight loss drug semaglutide in 23 countries opens up a major growth opportunity. With few competitors, Ajanta can capture a significant market share. This could add $25–30 million in annual sales by late FY28, with high profit margins of 50–55% driven by low costs.

With Rs 1,000 crore set aside for acquisitions, the company looks ready to buy its way to further growth. Manudhane and Jain project strong annual growth through FY28, forecasting revenue to climb by 11%, and net profit by 16%.

4. Ambuja Cements:

Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this cement manufacturer with a target price of Rs 630 per share, an upside of 11.8%. The stock has dropped 5.4% over the past six months and 2.2% over the quarter. Ambuja Cements’ board approved the merger of its subsidiaries, ACC and Orient Cement, with itself on December 22, 2025.

Analysts Uttam K Srimal and Shikha Doshi believe this merger will make operations more transparent, allow the company to use its factories more effectively, and create a stronger base for future expansion.

Management says the merger will streamline manufacturing and logistics, simplify the corporate structure, and strengthen its finances. This will help the company to improve capital allocation for growth. Analysts note that the move could boost profit margins by over Rs 100 per tonne by cutting costs in sales, branding, and distribution.

Srimal and Doshi highlight that Ambuja Cements’ nationwide presence, cost-cutting, and integration within the Adani group position it well for growth. Strong demand from government infrastructure projects, housing, and private investment have created a favourable market. They forecast annual revenue growth of 15.5% over FY26-27.

5. Shyam Metalics and Energy:

ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this iron & steel manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 1,000, an upside of 20%. Its share price has fallen 14.2% over the past three months and 5.2% over the last six months. The company plans to more than double its revenue by FY31 by expanding capacity and focusing on higher-value products.

Shyam Metalics and Energy recently completed a Rs 9,500 crore capex cycle, tripling its revenue in five years. Now, it is focusing on downstream steel, stainless steel, and aluminium. These products offer much higher profit margins than basic steel, creating more predictable earnings and reducing its reliance on fluctuating commodity prices.

Management projects 16–18% annual revenue growth for the next five years, with profits growing even faster thanks to a better product mix. They expect stainless steel revenue to nearly quadruple. Both aluminium and downstream steel could become Rs 10,000 crore businesses. The company plans to fund these expansions using its own cash.

Analysts Vikash Singh and Mohit Lohia forecast annual revenue growth of 18% and net profit growth of 24% over FY26-28. They believe the company's focus on diverse, high-value metals and smart spending will secure its market position and drive long-term earnings.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

02 Jan 2026

Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 2, 2026

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Dixon Technologies:

This consumer electronics maker fell 3.7% last week after CLSA cut its price target by 16% to Rs 15,800. The brokerage said the company’s near-term outlook looks uncertain due to slowing smartphone sales in India and loss of market share by its key customers. CLSA also expects Dixon’s Q3 revenue to remain flat YoY, raising the risk of a guidance cut in FY26.

The company’s share price has fallen 32% over the past year. Adding to the pressure is the government’s decision to extend IT hardware import norms until December 2026, which allows brands such as Acer, Lenovo, HP, and Asus to continue importing products and reduces the push for local manufacturing. Several other brokerages also flagged that Dixon may struggle to meet its guidance in the coming years, with import rules posing a downside risk to their estimates.

Despite near-term challenges, CLSA remains positive on Dixon’s long-term prospects. The brokerage has kept its FY28 earnings estimates unchanged, noting that a recovery is expected over time. It believes margins could improve through backward integration, especially in the smartphone segment, which remains Dixon’s key revenue driver.

The management, in contrast, appears more optimistic. Director and Group CFO Saurabh Gupta said, “Our exports stood at around Rs 1,600–1,700 crore in FY25. This year, we are looking at a figure closer to Rs 7,000–8,000 crore, and we expect strong growth in the following year as well.” He added that exports will continue to grow, both in absolute terms and as a share of revenue.

Gupta also reiterated Dixon’s revenue target of Rs 1 lakh crore by FY28. He said the company is aiming for around Rs 80,000 crore in FY27, and a growth rate of 30–35% should be enough to reach the target. The company missed its revenue estimates slightly in FY25 and FY24, by around 2%.

The stock appears undervalued based on its current and future earnings. Its current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 50.1 is well below its 5-year average of 146.9. Based on analyst estimates, its forward PE is 64.5, suggesting potential for further upside.

2. Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL):

This oil & gas stock rose over 6% on December 31 as it reportedly partnered with VinFast’s charging arm, V-GREEN, to expand electric-vehicle charging infrastructure across India. Under the collaboration, V-GREEN will leverage HPCL’s nationwide fuel-station network to deploy EV charging points.

Falling crude oil prices added to the positive sentiment. Crude has dropped over 20% in the past year and is now trading below $60 a barrel, improving refining economics for oil marketing companies. Analysts expect it to decline further to $50 a barrel in 2026, as the oil glut worsens amid slowing global demand and rising supply.

This margin tailwind has begun to reflect in earnings. HPCL reported EPS that beat estimates by 28% in Q2, at Rs 18 per share. Forecaster expects earnings to remain strong in the December quarter, projecting a 44% YoY jump in EPS. Higher profitability is also translating into larger shareholder payouts, with dividends expected to more than double this fiscal year.

HPCL is now moving past the peak of its capital-intensive phase. Large projects such as the Visakh refinery upgradation and the Rajasthan refinery–petrochemical complex are nearing completion. As these projects ramp up, more of the company’s capital spend is expected to convert into EBITDA and cash flows. Noting the current debt of Rs 55,808 crore, Kaushal said, “Debt reduction has been a focus for the management team. We guided for a debt-equity ratio of 1.1 for FY26, and we are now confident of taking it below 1 by the end of the year.”

Motilal Oswal maintains a Buy rating on HPCL with a target price of Rs 590, implying an upside of about 18%. The brokerage prefers HPCL among oil marketing companies due to its higher exposure to the marketing segment, improving dividend outlook as capex tapers, and the expected earnings boost from commissioning of multiple mega-projects over the coming year.

3. Titan Company:

Thisgems & jewellery stock rose 3.6% last week after ICICI Directreiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a higher target price of Rs 4,715. The brokerage expects Titan’s revenue and profit to grow at a CAGR of 18% and 23% respectively, over the next three years.

The major driver remains studded jewellery, which now accounts for around 23% of Titan’s jewellery sales. This segment is growing faster than plain gold jewellery. Rising preference for design-led and occasion-based purchases has helped Titan increase the share of studded products, strengthening growth visibility despite volatility in gold prices.

ICICI Direct highlighted Titan’s new brand, ‘beYon’, which offers lab-grown diamonds at 70–80% lower prices than natural ones. These affordable diamonds are attracting a new set of customers, while demand for natural diamonds among affluent buyers remains strong. Diamond jewellery makes up about 15% of India’s jewellery market, while lab-grown diamonds account for less than 1% of total sales. The brokerage expects Titan’s entry to help widen acceptance of lab-grown diamonds and gradually increase the share of studded jewellery.

Titan’sQ2FY26 revenue rose 21% YoY, with most of the growth coming from festive-season demand in its jewellery business. Net profit surged 59%, helped by tighter cost control. Higher sales volumes also improved operating margins, as fixed costs were spread over a larger base.Forecaster estimates revenue to rise about 33% in Q3FY26, with a net profit growth of over 58%.

CEO Ajoy Chawlasaid, “High gold prices are hurting demand at the lower end of the market, as fewer price-sensitive customers are buying. To address this, Titan is pushing gold exchange schemes and lighter, lower-carat designs.” Chawla noted that margins may vary quarter to quarter, but the focus is on EBIT growth over time. He added that future performance will partly depend on gold prices.

4. Zydus Wellness:

Thishealth and nutrition company jumped 7.2% on December 31 after Motilal Oswalinitiated a “buy” call. The brokerage expects Zydus to move from years of slow growth into a stronger phase as the recent acquisitions scale and the core business stabilises. Analysts note that the 2019 acquisition of Heinz India, which was nearly twice Zydus’ size, had previously weighed on profit growth.

Zydus owns popular brands like Sugar Free (sugar substitutes), Glucon-D (glucose powders), Everyuth (skincare), Nutralite (spreads), and Complan (nutritional beverages). But growth from these core products has been seasonal and inconsistent, holding back profits.Buying Naturell adds the RiteBite Max Protein brand to its lineup. This move gives Zydus a foothold in the fast-growing market for protein snacks. This category is less seasonal than its other products, promising more stable revenue and predictable margins.

In August, Zydus went global,buying UK-based Comfort Click for about Rs 2,800 crore. The deal opens doors to the vitamins, minerals, and supplements (VMS) market across the UK, EU, and US, unlocking a new international growth engine.

The VMS market is booming, growing 7–9% annually and is set to hit $50–60 billion by 2030, driven by greater health awareness and the adoption of preventive healthcare. Commenting on the acquisition, CFO Umesh Parikh said, “Whatever acquisition has happened over the past 2 years in the FMCG segment, the likely payback period has always exceeded 8 to 10 years. But here, we are quite optimistic.”

InQ2FY25, revenue rose 31% YoY, yet the company reported a Rs 52.8 crore loss. One-time acquisition fees and higher financing costs caused the loss. Seasonal weakness, monsoon troubles, and GST issues also squeezed margins. However,Trendlyne Forecaster expects its net profit to multiply 4.8 times in Q3.

Success still depends on solid execution. A large share of revenue comes from weather-sensitive categories, making quarterly performance vulnerable to shorter summers and uneven demand. At the same time, volatile input costs and aggressive competition in health drinks and skincare continue to cap margin recovery.

5. NTPC:

This electric utilities stock rose 9.2% over the past week after its board approved a 50:50 joint venture (JV) with EDF Power Solutions India on December 24. The JV will develop pumped storage power plants. Separately, the board also cleared the formation of a wholly owned subsidiary in Mauritius to work on power projects, including floating solar installations.

NTPC continues to scale up capacity. In H1FY26, installed capacity rose 10% YoY to 83.9 gigawatt (GW). The company is accelerating its renewable push through fresh project awards. Last week alone, NTPC placed orders worth Rs 1,704 crore for renewable energy projects, including the appointment of KPI Green Energy to set up a green hydrogen project and a waste-to-energy plant in Greater Noida.

Its renewable verticals have also stepped up ordering activity. NTPC Renewable Energy gave solar EPC orders of 400 MW to Vikran Engineering and 250 MW to Solarworld Energy Solutions. Another unit, NTPC Green Energy, awarded Bondada Engineering a contract to build and maintain a 300 MW solar project.

Outlining the long-term expansion roadmap, Director (Finance) Jaikumar Srinivasan said, “Our current capacity under construction stands at 33 GW. We have revised our capacity addition target to 149 GW from 130 GW by 2032.” He added that this expansion would require an estimated capex of about Rs 7 lakh crore over the period.

Near-term performance remains mixed, despite the aggressive capacity additions. In Q2FY26, revenue stayed flat at Rs 45,262 crore but came in marginally ahead of Forecaster estimates. Power generation was affected by subdued electricity demand due to a milder summer and extended monsoon conditions.

Analysts at Motilal Oswal are cautious of NTPC’s execution capabilities and retained a ‘Neutral’ call with a target price of Rs 370. The firm likes the company's long-term outlook but worries that project execution will fall short of investor expectations, especially at NTPC Green. They expect annual revenue growth of 7.8% and profit growth of 12.6% over FY26-28.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

01 Jan 2026

Will the smallcap investor run out of patience in 2026?

Since early 2023, I noticed a lot of people sharing screenshots of their stock market portfolios online, often with double digit gains. There seemed to be lots of genius stock pickers around, many of whom were betting on lesser known midcap and smallcap players.

But in the last three months of 2024, the Nifty fell 8.4%. And in 2025, the market has remained jumpy and volatile. You don't see those posts about portfolio returns all that much anymore. Gains for Indian investors flatlined - even as oil prices were near five year lows and India's GDP growth was strong, markets didn't move very much. Reliable multibaggers of 2024 like Dixon Tech and Kalyan Jewellers saw negative returns in 2025.

Nifty's headline gain for 2025 is 10.5%. And while this may seem like a reasonable performance, it hides some sharp divergences. We look more closely at what changed for investors in 2025.

The economist Ruchir Sharma recently wrote that both stocks and gold have soared in the US stock market, an unusual occurrence (stocks and gold returns don't usually move in sync). This, he argues, happened due to the large amount of stimulus pumped into the economy by the US government post-pandemic. He estimates that around $1.5 trillion of "excess money" is sloshing around, driving asset prices up and fuelling speculation across asset classes.

In India, the major source of money in the stock market in 2025 has come not from a stimulus, but from monthly SIPs being pumped into domestic mutual funds by retail investors.

From Jan to March 2025, the MF industry lost more SIPs than it added, as SIP cancellation rates were higher than new SIPs. Since April however, SIP inflows kept rising, and hit a record of Rs. 29,529 crore in October 2025.

Indian MFs are now sitting on sky-high cash piles. This institutional money is being invested not in expensive smallcaps, but almost exclusively into safer, better valued largecap stocks. This has caused a significant returns gap between Indian indices, hurting retail traders who invested and saw big returns from smallcaps in 2023 and early 2024.

As a result, even as the headline indices held on to returns, a secret crash has been hiding in the Nifty smallcap index, which has declined 5% over the year. Specific themes like Nifty IT have also suffered, while sectors like banking, auto and metal saw double digit returns.

Smallcap investors may soon run out of patience

If smallcaps continue to bleed in 2026, these retail traders may finally lose patience. The current spine of the Indian stock market, SIP inflows, is clearly holding up much better in returns compared to the "get rich quick" mentality of the smallcap trade.

As largecaps delivered gains in a volatile market supported by domestic institutions, we are seeing a different set of winners compared to two years ago. And as speculative bets on smallcaps fail to deliver, such individual retail investors may have to look elsewhere.

Two places that are seeing growth are fixed deposits in banks, and riskier mutual funds. FD balances are growing fast, especially in rural areas. Retail investors fatigued by losing money on high risk bets may also be turning to hybrid and multi asset funds, which saw their AUM (assets under management) grow over 24% in the year till date, while the overall equity category grew by 17%.

Holdings in gold ETFs also more than doubled in 2025, suggesting that retail traders are trying to shield themselves from market volatility.

Overall, the"stock pickers" of the market may have burned their hands a bit in 2025. The reaction to this could be a flight to safety. It may be a while before smallcaps and midcaps become part of the boom again, and for that to happen, the underlying fundamentals would need to change.

The Baseline

31 Dec 2025

2025 turns selective on returns: Themes outperform while headline indices stall

By Anagh Keremutt

The Nifty 500 rose just 5.5% this year, reflecting uneven earnings growth, valuation concerns, and cautious foreign flows. This seemed like a slow, stagnant year for the stock market, despite strong GDP growth.

The market however, has moved sharply along selective themes. Investors favoured businesses linked to government spending, financial strength, technology, and reforms. As a result, some thematic indices saw strong gains.

Money poured into public sector banks, defence manufacturers, and metal companies building infrastructure. New-age themes like electric mobility and consumption also saw a boost.

Nikhil Khandelwal, MD of Systematix Group, said, “Indian equities are entering 2026 with market performance increasingly driven by earnings growth rather than liquidity. This makes sector selection and company fundamentals far more important than broad index exposure.”

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we break down how specific themes outperformed the broader market and why 2025 became a year where "what" you owned mattered far more than simply "being in" the market.

Financials lead 2025, thanks to structural strength

In 2025, the Nifty PSU Bank index rose over 28.3% as public sector banks strengthened their balance sheets and reduced non-performing assets (NPAs).

NPAs of PSU banks dropped sharply from over 9% in FY21 to around 2.6% by March 2025. Capital levels improved and returns steadily increased. Large banks like State Bank of India now offer good earnings visibility, while mid-sized banks are growing faster. This has built confidence across the sector.

This trend was also visible in the Financial Services 25/50 index, which rose 18% during the year. The Financial Services 25/50 index makes sure no single company dominates. No stock can be more than 25% of the index, and the top two can’t be more than 50%, so it shows the sector fairly.

Alongside lenders, financial market infrastructure companies also delivered steady gains. The Nifty Capital Markets index rose about 14.5%, mainly through rising participation. NSE trading accounts crossed 24 crore in November 2025, marking an annual increase of 20%. Individual investors accounted for about 18.8% of NSE’s total market capitalization in Q2FY26. This represents a 22-year peak in retail investor ownership.

Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities said, "This rally has been underpinned by a surge in equity market participation, record-breaking trading volumes, and a vibrant IPO pipeline." He adds, "As more retail investors joined the markets and F&O activity reached record levels, exchanges, brokers, and investment platforms earned more from transaction fees, margin loans, and other services."

PSU banks and capital market firms formed two sides of the same engine, one supplying credit to the economy, the other channeling savings into financial assets. This combination made financials a core pillar of thematic outperformance in 2025.

Defence and metals ride higher domestic demand

Another driver of returns in 2025 was India’s push toward self-reliance and domestic manufacturing. The Nifty India Defence index rose 15.7% in 2025 as defence spending moved from announcements to actual orders, backed by a record Rs 6.8 lakh crore budget.

Stock gains were led by Garden Reach Shipbuilders, MTAR Technologies and Bharat Electronics which rose 42.4%, 42% and 34.7%, respectively. Their growth was backed by a combined order book value of over Rs 75,700 crore.

The Nifty Commodities index gained 14.8% in 2025, driven by a rising cycle in global raw material prices. Unlike previous, more cyclical years, 2025 saw a steady climb as global demand for industrial inputs outpaced supply.

The Nifty Metals index led the growth within commodities with a 26.2% surge, reaching record highs in late December. The primary driver was a global copper shortage that pushed prices to an all-time high of $12,960 per ton.

Hindustan Copper more than doubled in value with an annual gain of 108%, while National Aluminium and Hindalco rose 48% and 43%, respectively, due to their focus on copper and aluminium for the electric vehicle transition.

Discretionary spending jumps as consumers favour premium brands

Beyond finance and infrastructure, 2025 also marked a visible change in how Indians move and spend.

The Nifty EV & New Age Automotive index rose about 22.5% in 2025, driven by rapid charging infrastructure expansion and falling battery costs. Policy support and lower ownership expenses boosted the entire value chain, from component manufacturers to vehicle platforms.

Performance was led by Ashok Leyland in the electric commercial vehicles segment, which rose 62%, Maruti Suzuki which rose sharply within passenger cars, and TVS Motor which stood as the top gainer in the electric two-wheeler segment. Eicher Motors also rose sharply as it scaled EV operations for its first electric Royal Enfield model.

The Nifty India New Age Consumption index gained around 17.9%, as urban spending shifted from basic staples to "aspirational" lifestyle brands.

Select turnarounds drove the rally. Nykaa jumped 65% as profits tripled in Q2FY26, helped by tighter costs and growth in its core beauty business. Telecom also staged a recovery, with Vodafone Idea rising 61% after the government converted a large part of its debt into equity, easing bankruptcy fears and enabling a fresh 5G rollout.

A Moneycontrol report noted, "Household spending on non-essentials has increased, as higher incomes drive consumers toward premium and discretionary purchases."

Together, modern mobility and new-age consumption reflected bigger structural changes in the economy. Investors backed companies aligned with these shifts, reinforcing the market’s preference for selective themes.

The Baseline

26 Dec 2025

Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 26, 2025

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Fortis Healthcare:

Thishealthcare company jumped 5.4% in two trading sessions after announcing plans toacquire People Tree Hospital in Bengaluru. Fortis Healthcare is buying the 125-bed multi-speciality hospital for Rs 430 crore through its subsidiary, International Hospital.

Fortis plans to inject an additional Rs 410 crore over three years to expand the hospital. The deal includes an adjacent 0.8-acre land parcel, enabling the hospital to scale from 125 to over 300 beds. MD & CEO Ashutosh Raghuvanshisaid, “The deal complements the company’s cluster-focused growth strategy in Bengaluru with an overall potential to scale up to over 1,500 beds across seven facilities over the next three years.”

InQ2FY26, revenue climbed 17.3% YoY, while net profit surged 82.4%, powered by its hospital business. Hospital revenue grew 19.3%, fueled by higher bed occupancy, and now makes up 85% of total revenue. Average revenue per bed also improved, thanks to a better speciality mix and strong oncology performance.

Looking ahead, Fortis’s expansion strategy focuses on adding beds within its existing strongholds. After adding 550 beds in H1FY26, the companytargets another 400–500 beds in FY26 and 300–400 more in FY27, through existing facility upgrades. Key projects include capacity additions in Gurugram, Noida, and Greater Noida, with a new hospital planned for Lucknow.

The move earned a "Buy"upgrade from JM Financial, which set a target price of Rs 1,093. The brokerage highlights the hospital's location in a supply-strapped area of North-West Bengaluru, perfectly positioned to capture rising demand. Analysts forecast the hospital's revenue will nearly double to Rs 130 crore by FY27 from Rs 75 crore in FY25. They note that with a second tower operational, its contribution could reach Rs 600 crore and achieve healthy margins by FY32. For Fortis overall, revenue and EBITDA are projected to compound annually at 17% and 26% respectively, through FY28.

2. Phoenix Mills:

Thisrealty stock gained 3% last week after ICICI Directreiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a higher target price of Rs 2,210, implying an upside of 19%. The brokerage expects demand at Phoenix Mills’ malls to remain firm during the festive and holiday period. Mall spending is growing at close to 20% a year, supported by higher footfalls.

The demand trend is supported by traction across major retail categories such as entertainment, fashion, and jewellery. A gradual shift toward premium brands has improved store performance and overall spending quality. Based on current trends, ICICI Direct expects the company to achieve its double-digit growth guidance for the ongoing financial year. This stable operating performance provides a base for long-term expansion.

Phoenix Mills plans to scale up its portfolio across retail, offices, and hotels over the coming years. New developments and expansion are expected to drive growth. The company’s balance sheet remains strong, supported by healthy cash flow and low debt. Lease renewals across properties also offer scope for higher rents without significant additional investment.

Recent financials underline this strength. InQ2FY26, revenue rose 22% YoY to Rs 1,115 crore, driven by a recovery in housing sales. Net profit jumped 39%, aided by new mall ramp-ups and tighter cost control in hotels. Looking ahead, Forecaster estimates revenue to rise about 10% in Q3FY26, with a net profit growth of over 40%.

Management sounds upbeat. CEO Varun Parwalsaid the company “plans to add 1–2 million square feet of retail space” each year, while retail head Rashmi Sen pointed to a stronger focus on experiential food and beverage offerings. CFO Kailash Gupta noted that the “average cost of debt has been cut by nearly 10%”, improving the company’s ability to fund growth while keeping finances stable.

3. Aadhar Housing Finance:

This housing finance company rose 1.3% on December 24 after CEO Rishi Anand said AUM is set to grow 20–22% this year, supported by government stimulus and demand from individuals buying homes to live in, rather than speculative purchases by investors focused on resale or rental. He added that H2 is shaping up better than H1, with momentum improving as the year progresses.

The company sees disbursement growth of over 20% in Q3. Asset quality remains stable, with gross NPAs guided at around 1.1% for FY26, improving from about 1.4% in H1. Management also said recent rate cuts will be passed on to customers by the end of the quarter, alongside a gradual easing in the cost of funds.

Anand said, “We see enough demand and balance sheet strength to sustain 20–22% growth over the next three years, which should help us double our AUM in about three and a half years.”

Separately, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) on November 7 approved Blackstone’s plan to acquire up to 80.2% stake in Aadhar Housing Finance. Analysts say the move could improve access to capital, strengthen governance, and increase competition as global investors step up exposure to Indian housing finance.

Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects Aadhar Housing Finance’s net profit to rise 19.6% to Rs 1,091 crore in FY26, with revenue growing 31.2%. The stock appears in a screener of companies with expensive valuations, as its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is above the industry average.

ICICI Direct has a ‘Buy’ rating on Aadhar Housing Finance with a target price of Rs 600. The brokerage highlights the company’s stable performance and disciplined lending, and expects the company to deliver 20% annual growth despite industry challenges.

4. Granules India:

The stock of this pharmaceutical company rose by over 6% in the past week after its board approved a massive fundraising plan. The company aims to raise up to Rs 1,462.5 crore through 2.5 crore convertible warrants priced at Rs 585 each, alongside an additional Rs 300 crore via the issue of 51.3 lakh equity shares to non-promoter investors.

Adding to the momentum, the company received tentative USFDA approval on December 22 for its Amphetamine tablets, which target attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), a market valued at $172 million. CMD Krishna Prasad Chigurupati noted that this move “strengthens Granules’ US generics portfolio” and underscores their commitment to “complex dosage forms and value-driven healthcare solutions.”

The company's financial health showed a significant turnaround in Q2, posting a net profit of Rs 120.6 crore compared to a loss of Rs 41.4 crore in the same period last year. This recovery was fueled by strong performance in North America and 7% sequential growth in the formulations business.

Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects its net profit to grow by 7.4% in Q3FY26 as the company continues to invest in R&D and its CDMO segment. The stock appears in a screener of companies that have shown relative outperformance as compared to the industry over the past month.

Management confirmed that its CDMO platform, which it established through its 2025 acquisition of Senn Chemicals AG, is now fully operational, supported by R&D integration with IIT Hyderabad. The platform is expected to hit profitability by Q4FY26. It also expects 1-2 approvals in controlled substance formulations within 2-3 years.

ICICI Direct has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 660. The brokerage highlighted the acquisition of Senn Chemicals AG, which has opened new revenue streams in peptide development, though it cautioned that pricing pressures in the US and other regulated markets remain a potential risk.

5. GE Vernova T&D India (GE T&D):

This industrial machinery firm climbed 7.4% over the past week after securing a 2,500-megawatt (MW) power transmission order from AESL Projects. Power Grid Corporation of India estimates the project cost at about Rs 19,000 crore. Under the contract, GE T&D will set up a terminal station to transmit power from Khavda to South Olpad.

Earlier, on December 17, the company also won a maintenance order from Power Grid to refurbish the 2*500 MW transmission lines at Chandrapur, strengthening its position in high-voltage transmission upgrades.

Commenting on opportunities in transmission & distribution, MD & CEO Sandeep Zanzaria said, “The government plans to add up to 136 GW of hydro, pumped storage and conventional capacity by 2035, and nearly 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047.” He noted that every new power plant needs new transmission lines, which creates steady demand for the industry.

To capitalise on this opportunity, GE T&D plans a Rs 800 crore capex over the next three years. This investment will go towards expanding manufacturing capacity at its Vadodara, Padappai, and Hosur plants to meet rising demand from home and abroad.

In Q2FY26, the company reported strong operational performance. Revenue rose 40% YoY on improved execution across domestic and export orders, while net profit surged 107%. The sharp profit growth reflected a richer product mix and lower employee costs. Both revenue and profit beat Forecaster estimates by a wide margin.

Yes Securities initiated coverage on GE T&D with an ‘Add’ rating and a target price of Rs 3,200. The brokerage highlights Europe—now contributing about 35% of revenue—as a key driver of export growth, noting that local equipment suppliers are operating at near-full capacity. It expects transformer capacity additions to remain elevated through FY29. The analysts project revenue and net profit CAGRs of 30% and 39% over FY26-28.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

24 Dec 2025

Nifty 50 in 2025: A market hit by policy and trade pressures

By Anagh Keremutt

The Nifty 50 closed 2025 as one of the most unpredictable years in recent history. What began with optimism around steady growth turned over the months into a stop-start market, that struggled to find direction. By year-end, India lagged global peers, with the index delivering a modest 10.1% return.

That number doesn’t provide the full picture. There were long stretches this year where the market went nowhere, interrupted by sudden, sharp swings that tested investor patience. Unlike the smoother rallies of the past two years, 2025 felt like a constant tug-of-war between hope and fear.

Market stress was visible across earnings, valuations, and sentiment. Rajiv Batra of JPMorgan summed it up: “Indian equities were under pressure due to weak earnings, soft consumption, high valuations, trade headwinds and a weaker rupee,” noting that “policymakers are now clearly focused on reviving domestic growth.”

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we track how policy actions, global trade shocks, currency pressure, and earnings trends shaped the Nifty’s volatile journey through 2025—and why the year looks like a reset before a potential recovery.

An odd marriage: A resilient economy, a hesitant market

One of the biggest contradictions of 2025 was the gap between the economy and the stock market. While equities struggled, the broader economy held up better than expected. India’s services sector, which now contributes about 55% of total economic activity, played a stabilising role. Even as global trade slowed and manufacturing exports came under pressure, demand for services continued to grow.

The stock market, however, focused more on what could go wrong than right, given already high valuations. In H1CY25, analysts cut Nifty 50 EPS forecasts due to weak urban spending, banks seeing slower growth due to a high base, and soft global IT demand.

Valuations added another challenge. Stocks were not cheap enough to attract aggressive buying, but not expensive enough to justify extreme optimism. The result was a market stuck between strong long-term fundamentals and uncomfortable short-term realities.

RBI rate cuts: support came, but slowly

Policy support became the market’s main anchor in 2025, especially as global conditions worsened. The Reserve Bank of India took a clear pro-growth stance, cutting interest rates aggressively to support liquidity and confidence. Over the year, the RBI reduced the repo rate by a cumulative 125 basis points, taking it from 6.5% to 5.25% by December.

The first 25 bps cut in February, the RBI’s first rate reduction in five years, was met with caution. Alongside the rate cut, the central bank also lowered its GDP growth forecast by 20 bps to 6.4%, reinforcing concerns around slowing momentum. As investors focused on tariff-related risks and weaker growth signals, the Nifty slipped instead of rallying.

A second 25 bps cut in April came amid rising trade tensions, leading to an initial dip before a modest recovery led by banks and real estate stocks. June then marked a turning point. A larger 50 bps cut, along with a clear shift in the RBI’s stance, lifted sentiment. Banking stocks surged to record highs as expectations around credit growth and consumption improved.

By the time the final 25 bps cut arrived in December, the move was largely priced in. The Nifty barely reacted, ending the year in a cautious phase. Meanwhile, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said India is in a rare “goldilocks” phase, with steady growth and controlled inflation. He added that rates are likely to stay low for longer, and any progress in trade talks—especially with the US—could lift growth by around half a percentage point.

Global trade shocks tested confidence, and exporters adapted

Global events remained a constant source of stress for Indian markets in 2025, with trade tensions—especially with the US—frequently unsettling investor confidence. In early April, the US imposed 25% tariffs on Indian goods, triggering a sharp fall in the Nifty. Export-heavy sectors were hit the hardest as investors quickly priced in weaker overseas demand.

The situation worsened in late August when tariffs were raised to 50% after India continued importing Russian oil. The market reacted sharply, with textiles, gems and jewellery stocks seeing heavy selling. These repeated trade shocks have deepened concerns about India’s export outlook and added to the market’s overall nervousness.

Currency pressure amplified the impact. The Indian Rupee weakened past Rs 90 to the dollar, making it one of the weakest-performing Asian currencies during this period. While a softer rupee can help exporters, it raises costs for energy imports and foreign debt repayments. Dilip Parmar of HDFC Securities noted that the rupee significantly underperformed regional peers, further weighing on sentiment.

Yet exporters did not stand still. Companies began shifting focus to alternative markets, and the data reflected this adjustment. Exports to China jumped 31% YoY in September–October, while shipments to Saudi Arabia and parts of Europe also increased. These moves helped cushion some of the damage from US tariffs.

By December, sentiment improved as talk of a potential US–India trade deal gained traction. The possibility of easing tariffs in exchange for higher Indian purchases of US energy helped calm markets and offered hope that the worst of the trade pressure may be nearing an end.

Tax relief gives consumption a boost

Alongside monetary support, fiscal measures played an important role. The Union Budget 2025 raised the personal income tax exemption limit to Rs 12 lakh, putting more money directly into household hands. While broader market reaction was muted on budget day, consumer-focused stocks responded positively in the weeks that followed.

JP Morgan estimated that the tax relief could add around 0.6% to GDP over time, gradually lifting consumption. The impact became more visible after the rollout of GST 2.0 in September. The tax structure was simplified into two main slabs—5% and 18%—replacing a complex system that businesses had long criticised.

The immediate effect was seen in consumer durables. Products like air conditioners and large televisions moved from the 28% bracket to the 18% bracket, leading to price cuts of 8–9%. Retailers reported a noticeable jump in footfalls and sales. To offset revenue loss, the government retained a steep 40% tax on luxury items such as premium SUVs.

Earnings bring a turning point

After months of uncertainty, October saw a change in the market's tone. The Nifty rose 4.5%, its strongest monthly gain of 2025, not due to policy announcements, but because earnings were better than feared. The steady stream of downgrades slowed, suggesting profits may have finally bottomed out.

Banks and auto companies led the recovery, reporting stable demand and improved cost control. The results were not spectacular, but they were “less bad” than expected—and that was enough. Motilal Oswal and other brokerages noted that the worst phase of earnings pressure appeared to be behind.

The October rally did not erase the damage of the year, but it shifted the investor mindset. As 2025 ended, the focus moved away from constant downside risks toward the possibility of a gradual recovery in 2026, making the year look less like a downturn and more like an overdue reset.

The Baseline

23 Dec 2025

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 23, 2025

By Abdullah Shah

1. Vishal Mega Mart:

Motilal Oswal retains its ‘Buy’ call on this retail store chain with a higher target price of Rs 170 per share, an upside of 24.3%. Despite an 8.2% drop in the stock price last quarter, analysts Aditya Bansal and Avinash Karumanchi see strength in the stock. Vishal Mega Mart benefits from its diverse product mix, budget-friendly starting prices, major contribution from its own brands, and an efficient cost structure. These give it an edge over both offline and online value competitors.

Management remains confident in achieving double-digit same-store sales growth in FY26, driven by its unique offerings, with around 75% of revenue from its own brands, entry-level pricing, and a loyal customer base. Analysts add that the company's focus on offering premium products helps it capture a larger share of customer spending, particularly during festive seasons.

Bansal and Karumanchi point out that South India's profitability matches the national average, despite lower sales volume, thanks to strong demand for apparel. Encouraged by this performance, the company plans to open more stores in South India. They project Vishal Mega Mart will achieve a 20% revenue CAGR and a 30% net profit CAGR from FY26-28.

2. Waaree Energies:

Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this solar module manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 4,260, an upside of 37.6%. Its share price has fallen 2.8% over the last month and 10.4% over the three months. Waaree's planned $30 million investment in United Solar Holding (USH) drives this recommendation. It grants Waaree access to a 1 lakh tonnes-per-year polysilicon plant in Oman. This supports partial backward integration in its solar supply chain.

The Oman plant offers cost benefits, lower energy expenses, and favourable trade terms with markets such as the US and India. This will help Waaree meet the 10-gigawatt wafer-ingot demand for its Nagpur facility. Management expects the plant to begin operations soon and reach full capacity within a year. This ensures long-term supply security and reduces reliance on Chinese polysilicon.

Waaree also added 5.1 gigawatts of module capacity in Gujarat during Q3, strengthening its domestic manufacturing. Analysts Sabri Hazarika and Arya Patel state that the USH investment will enhance scale, integrate the supply chain, and support global expansion. They expect this step to improve margins gradually. They also see Waaree well positioned to profit from rising global solar demand and clearer supply prospects.

3. Lumax Auto Technologies:

ICICI Direct reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this auto parts & equipment producer with a target price of Rs 1,800 per share, an upside of 14.3%. Analysts Shashank Kanodia and Bhavish Doshi see benefits from the company’s strong position in the passenger vehicle (PV) ancillary segment, gains from premium products, and a robust order book.

Management notes that the PV segment generated 55% of the company’s sales in H1FY26, boosted by the acquisition of PV interior supplier International Automotive Components (IAC) India. Analysts add that this acquisition gave Lumax Auto’s product range a boost, particularly in plastic interior modules. It has also expanded business with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Mahindra & Mahindra.

With a 40% share of EV platforms in its Rs 1,360 crore order book and increasing content per vehicle, the analysts believe the company is well positioned to profit from volume growth and premiumisation among leading OEMs. Kanodia and Doshi write that GST 2.0 reforms will drive two-wheeler segment growth, led by volume recovery. They expect the company to deliver an 18.1% revenue CAGR and a 30.6% net profit CAGR from FY26-28.

4. Aditya Infotech:

ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this IT networking equipment manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 1,800 per share, a 15.9% upside. The stock has dropped 6.9% over the past month. Analysts Aniruddha Joshi and Manoj Menon believe Aditya Infotech will continue to gain market share, driven by stronger brand recognition and expanded manufacturing.

Management highlights increased brand-building investments. This includes expanding CP Plus Galaxy stores, which are their specialised outlets for advanced surveillance products, and more advertising. Analysts add that this brand push is crucial to attract consumers and support premium product offerings. The company's partnership with Qualcomm for AI-enabled video security solutions has differentiated its products and improved customer retention.

Joshi and Menon believe the company's planned capacity expansion in Kadapa and a new North India manufacturing unit will improve service speed, cut logistics costs, and enable faster market entry. Analysts add that successful partnerships with semiconductor players will boost product performance and long-term cost efficiencies. They expect the company to deliver revenue and net profit CAGRs of 24.3% and 65.2%, respectively, from FY26-28.

5. Shriram Finance:

Axis Direct reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this NBFC, with a target price of Rs 1,125, an upside of 17.5%. Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya and Abhishek Pandya cite MUFG Bank's planned strategic investment as the main driver of this positive outlook. MUFG intends to buy a 20% stake for roughly Rs 841 per share via a preferential allotment.

This Rs 39,618 crore deal marks India's largest foreign direct investment in its financial services sector. The capital infusion will strengthen Shriram Finance's fundamentals. It is also expected to fuel faster growth in areas like new commercial vehicles and MSMEs. Management believes the partnership will boost capital reserves, simplify fundraising, and improve governance. MUFG-appointed directors will help guide the company's strategy.

Vaidya and Pandya expect lower funding costs, possibly due to a credit rating upgrade. If the deal closes in FY27, Shriram Finance's net worth could nearly double. They foresee a 17% CAGR in assets under management from FY26-28 and margins improving by 80-90 basis points in FY27-28. Although equity dilution might limit return on equity, analysts predict overall returns will rise due to better profitability.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

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