Solar Industries India Ltd. share price target

Solar Industries’ (SOIL) Q4FY25 EPS was 5% and 13% ahead of our estimates and consensus, respectively. EBITDA rose 53% YoY to INR 5.4bn. Defence revenue rose 2.2x YoY to INR 4.3bn.

In the current volatile markets, Solar Industries’ (SOIL) stock has outperformed its peers. Its traditional India business continues to be on a stable footing and the exports and overseas segment is also expanding.

We recently hosted the management of Solar Industries (SOIL) for an interaction with investors. Defence and exports & overseas segments could shepherd growth over the next five years.

The Ministry of Defence has inked a contract with Economic Explosive Limited (EEL)- 100% subsidiary of Solar Industries (SOIL) and Munitions India Limited (MIL) for procurement of Area Denial Munition (ADM) Type-1 (DPICM) and High Explosive Pre Fragmented (HEPF) Mk-1 (Enhanced) rockets, respectively, for Pinaka Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) at a total cost of INR 101.4bn.

Solar Industries’ (SOIL) stock has been running sideways due to the delay in the award of the Pinaka order. However, we believe, Street is underestimating the potential of continuous export order inflows (OI) in defence. With an OI of INR 45bn so far in CY24,for a 3–5-year duration, we believe these orders alone potentially form an annual revenue accretion of INR 11–13bn.

Solar Industries (SOIL) has posted its highest-ever quarterly EBITDA, EBITDA margin and defence revenue in Q1FY25. EBITDA rose 39% YoY at INR 4.5bn despite a mere 1% YoY uptick in realisation.

Solar Industries (SOIL) has developed three new explosives: 1) SEBEX-2 with lethality of 2.01x of TNT. 2) SITBEX-1, a solid thermobaric polymer-bonded explosive. 3) SIMEX-4, a new insensitive explosive formulation.

Solar Industries’ (SOIL) Q4FY24 performance was slightly ahead of our estimates. Key points: 1) EBITDA was impacted by hyperinflation and currency depreciation in some overseas geographies

Solar Industries’ (SOIL) Q2FY24 profitability is its best-ever. Key points: 1) EBITDA margin surged to a record 24.9% on better price-cost spread. 2) Explosive volume uptick of 13% YoY. 3) Defence comprised 8% of overall volume. 4) Order book of INR 39.2bn, of which INR10.5bn is for defence.

Solar Industries’ (SOIL) Q1FY24 EBITDA was up 14% YoY (down 9.6% QoQ) at INR3.2bn. Key points: 1) Explosives segment realisation declined, tracking ammonium nitrate prices; 2) explosives volume was up 12.6% YoY, lower than the guidance of 15-20% mainly due to impact of unseasonal rains on housing and infra segment; 3) defence revenue rose 148% YoY to a record INR 1.5bn.

Solar Industries’ (Solar) Q4FY23 consolidated EBITDA of Rs3.6bn (up 36% YoY) was 14% ahead of the street’s estimates. Key points: 1) revenue growth of 47% YoY was aided by robust growth in exports and non-CIL and institutional segments.

Solar Industries’ (Solar) Q3FY23 consolidated EBITDA of Rs3.5bn (up 96% YoY) was ahead of consensus estimates by 17%. Key points: 1) revenue growth of 78% YoY was aided by robust growth in exports and non-CIL & institutional segments; 2) consolidated EBITDA margin was at 19.3%, up 180bps YoY.

Solar Industries’ (Solar) Q3FY23 consolidated EBITDA of Rs3.5bn (up 96% YoY) was ahead of consensus estimates by 17%. Key points: 1) revenue growth of 78% YoY was aided by robust growth in exports and non-CIL & institutional segments; 2) consolidated EBITDA margin was at 19.3%, up 180bps YoY;

Dominant player in explosives, both in India and overseas, focused on expanding its competencies in defence

Solar Industries (Solar) is at an interesting juncture, in our view, given brightening prospects and its upcoming capabilities in defence.

Solar Industries’ (Solar) Q2FY23 consolidated EBITDA of Rs299bn (up 127% YoY) was ahead of street’s estimates by 32%.