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26 Nov 2025

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 26, 2025

1. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals:

Deven Choksey reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 2,300, an upside of 22.2%. In Q2FY26, net profit jumped 72.3% YoY and revenue climbed 79.9%. One-time income and strong global market performance fueled this growth. Analyst Yogesh Tiwari noted that distributor destocking, linked to a Goods and Services Tax change, temporarily impacted India sales.

Management confirms that India's sales dip came from stock reductions, and emphasised that core demand remains strong. North America delivered a robust quarter, generating Rs 44,656 crore in revenue, boosted by the blood cancer drug ISB-2001 and new injectable products. Europe continued its growth, thanks to the respiratory and dermatology portfolios. Emerging markets showed mixed results amid geopolitical challenges, though Russia stayed stable. Glenmark expects over Rs 8,000 crore in revenue for the second half of FY26, targeting an EBITDA margin of about 23%.

Tiwari anticipates that India sales will normalise from Q3. He foresees North America maintaining momentum with exclusive launches and expects Europe to deliver double-digit growth in the second half. Overall, he projects revenue will grow 15.4% annually and net profit 32% annually from FY26–27.

2. Reliance Industries (RIL):

Motilal Oswal reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating on this energy producer with a target price of Rs 1,765, an upside of 14.6%. Analysts Abhishek Nigam and Aditya Bansal believe the 40-gigawatt-hour (GWh) battery GIGA factory will increase valuations for RIL's new energy business.

Management is focused on delivering Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) solutions with industry-leading lifecycle costs. They are also fast-tracking the commercialisation of sodium-ion battery technology by acquiring UK-based Faradion for GBP 100 million (approx. Rs 1,171.9 crore) to boost production.

Analysts highlight that GIGA factory's output will serve RIL’s own needs, supporting its plan to install 100 GW of renewable power generation capacity. Government incentives like the Viability Gap Funding Scheme, production-linked incentives, and waived interstate transmission system charges for co-located battery energy storage systems (commissioned by June 2028) are expected to drive segment growth.

Nigam and Bansal note that the upcoming Approved List of Battery Manufacturers rules, which mandate in-house battery cell production, will give large players like RIL an advantage. The technical complexity and high cost of these projects could build a competitive advantage that smaller companies cannot cross. They expect RIL to deliver a CAGR of 4.6% in revenue, 11.4% in EBITDA, and 9.7% in net profit over FY26-28.

3. Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL):

Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades this power plant equipment manufacturer to a ‘Buy’ rating, with a higher target price of Rs 329, an upside of 16.3%. BHEL posted solid Q2FY26 results, with net profit surging 3.5 times and revenue jumping 14.8% YoY. Analyst Arun Kailasan highlighted the company’s strong project execution in thermal, hydro, and industrial systems, supported by diversification into renewables, rail transportation, and defence manufacturing.

The management has focused on expanding BHEL’s clean energy and nuclear portfolio, leveraging digital solutions to increase operational efficiency. BHEL plans to add 1630 MW across three projects to boost power generation: the 800 MW Yadadri thermal station (Unit-1), the 660 MW Khurja super-thermal project (Unit-2), and the 170 MW Punatsangchhu-II hydroelectric project (Unit-5).

Kailasan noted that initiatives in EV infrastructure, advanced train protection systems, and aerospace components will drive long-term growth. He added that consistent execution discipline and working capital optimisation will support near-term growth. The analyst expects BHEL to deliver a 29.7% annual revenue growth and a 145.2% annual net profit growth over FY26-27.

4. Ahluwalia Contracts (India):

Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this civil construction company with a target price of Rs 1,085, an upside of 11.4%. The company posted strong Q2FY26 results, with net profit jumping 103.2% YoY and revenue growing 16.5%. Analysts Uttam Kumar Srimal and Shikha Doshi note that a strong order book and improved project execution drove the company's robust growth.

Management expects over Rs 8,000 crore in order inflows, with 50-60% from private-sector projects. Their focus is on private capital expenditure, which offers stronger visibility and scalable opportunities. Analysts believe Ahluwalia Contracts will sustain its current EBITDA margin of 10.9%, led by a large executable order book, including the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus project in Mumbai, and better operating conditions in H2FY26.

Srimal and Doshi note that the company is well-positioned for revenue and net profit growth. A strong, diversified order book, healthy bidding pipeline, steady order inflows, an asset-light operating model, and emerging construction opportunities all support this. They expect Ahluwalia Contracts to deliver 19% annual revenue growth and 34% annual net profit growth over FY26-27.

5. Sansera Engineering:

ICICI Direct retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this auto parts manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 1,930, an upside of 16.2%. Sansera’s net profit jumped 38% in Q2FY26, thanks to lower finance costs and increased other income. Revenue grew 8%, driven by strong performance in aerospace, off-road, and agriculture segments. Products outside internal combustion engines now make up 27% of its sales.

Management highlights steady order flow for tech-agnostic and electric-vehicle components, alongside growing opportunities in the Aerospace-Defence-Semiconductor (ADS) segment. Sansera’s current order book totals around Rs 2,150 crore, with over 60% from international clients. Management expects this order pipeline to drive revenue growth, and aims to scale the high-margin ADS vertical to Rs 300–320 crore in FY26.

Analysts Shashank Kanodia and Bhavish Doshi foresee a steady recovery in Europe and sustained momentum in North America, supported by new program ramp-ups. They also expect improved domestic growth from GST restructuring, which reduces taxes on vehicles and auto components. They project revenue will grow 14% annually from FY26-28, driven by increasing contributions from non-auto and high-margin segments, and expect margins to approach 20% in the medium term.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

24 Nov 2025

Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q2FY26?

By Melissa Koshy

Q2FY26 turned out to be a busy quarter for marquee investors such as RARE Enterprises, Ashish Kacholia, Sunil Singhania, and Vijay Kedia. With the market rebounding, many rebalanced their portfolios — adding a few new names while scaling down earlier bets.

The chart below shows how the portfolio values of major superstars changed during the quarter. Even with fresh additions, overall values dipped slightly as some major holdings were reduced or exited.

Most superstars see a fall in their net worth in Q2FY26

Previously, we focused on the key buys these investors made. Now, we turn to their sells. The chart below shows their biggest sells during this period.

Biggest sells by superstars in Q2FY26

RARE Enterprises: No major selling

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio, currently managed by Rekha Jhunjhunwala and investment firm RARE Enterprises, did not sell any stock in Q2.

However, the portfolio value slipped 1% to Rs 63,500 crore as of November 20. Muted performance in key holdings like Aptech, Sundrop Brands and Valor Estate pulled down the value.

Ashish Kacholia goes on a selling spree in Q2

Ashish Kacholia’s net worth increased 3.1% to Rs 2,859 crore as of November 20, even though he cut stakes in several companies. New additions and increased stakes in other holdings helped offset these reductions.

Kacholia cuts stakes in five companies to below 1%

During the quarter, Kacholia reduced his holding in auto parts & equipment maker Universal Autofoundry from 2.4% in Q1. This is the fourth straight quarter of selling, taking his stake below 1%. The stock has dropped 61.4% in a year, underperforming its industry by 75.4% points.

The marquee investor sold his stake in Awfis Space Solutions, a special consumer services company, to below 1%. The stock shows a bearish momentum, with a Trendlyne momentum score of 34.1. Its share price has fallen by 18.2% in the past year.

During Q2, Kacholia reduced his stakes to below 1% in all three companies — construction firm Jyoti Structures, pharma company Acutaas Chemicals, and education technology company NIIT Learning Systems. In Q1FY26, he held 1.4%, 1.2%, and 1.1% stakes in these firms, respectively.

Ashish Kacholia pares stakes in multiple companies in Q2

Kacholia cut a 0.9% stake in plastic products maker Dhabriya Polywood, now holding 5.8%. Trendlyne classifies it as a Strong Performer, Getting Expensive. The company appears in a screener of companies with declining net cash flow.

He sold 0.2% each in Xpro, a container & packaging company, and Brand Concepts, a specialty retail player, now holding 3.9% and 1.5%. Both companies have underperformed their industries in the past year.

He also sold a 0.1% stake each in Sanjivani paranteral and Fineotex Chemical. The pharma company has weak momentum, as suggested by Trendlyne’s Momentum score of 28.8. Meanwhile, the specialty chemicals company has an expensive valuation.

Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund cuts stakes in two firms to below 1%

Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund saw a slight drop in net worth, down 0.2% to Rs 2,687 crore. The reduced stakes in three companies during Q2FY26.

Sunil Singhania cuts stakes in two companies to below 1%

Singhania’s fund reduced its holding in Sarda Energy & Minerals to 1.1% during Q2. This iron & steel products maker fell 14.6% during the quarter and underperformed its industry by 20%. It also appears in a screener where mutual funds decreased their holding.

Abakkus Fund cut its stake in Rupa & Co, an apparel brand, to 4%. The stock is a Falling Comet and appears in a screener of companies with declining net cash flows.

During Q2, the fund also reduced 0.1% stake in Ion Exchange. The company is a Slowing Down Stock per Trendlyne’s DVM. It has fallen 44.4% in the past year, underperforming its industry by 41.7% points.

Vijay Kedia pares stake in two firms

Vijay Kedia’s net worth slipped 8.6% to Rs 1,279 crore as of November 20. During the quarter, he reduced his stake in Affordable Robotic & Automation by 2.5%, now holding 7.4%. Trendlyne marks this SME stock as “weak” due to low Durability, Valuation, and Momentum scores.

It has fallen 65.3% in a year, underperforming its industry by 86% points. The company is also near its 52-week low.

Kedia cuts his stake in Affordable Robotic and Om Infra

The ace investor reduced his stake in Om Infra by 0.5%, bringing it down to 2%. This construction & engineering firm appears in a screener for stocks showing degrowth in both revenue and net profit. It has fallen 20.2% over the past year.

He also made a small reduction in Vaibhav Global during the quarter and now holds 2% in the apparels company.

Dolly Khanna cuts stakes in nine companies during Q2

Dolly Khanna reduced her holdings in nine companies during Q2FY26, including six where her stake fell below 1%. Her net worth fell 19.8% to Rs 456 crore as of November 20.

She trimmed her holding in 20 Microns to below 1% in Q2, after holding 2% last quarter. This coal & mining company is trading in the Sell Zone, meaning it is above its historical PE. It has fallen 14.7% in the past year.

Khanna also reduced her stake in Zuari Industries, Rajshree Sugar & Chemicals, and Polyplex Corp to below 1% during the quarter. She previously held 1.7%, 1.3%, and 1.1% stakes in these companies in Q1. All three have underperformed their industry price change over the past year.

She further lowered her holdings in Sarla Performance Fibers and Talbros Automotive Components to below 1% from 1% each. Talbros fell 6.4%, while Sarla Performance is down 1.7% in the past year. Both stocks have underperformed Nifty 50 and Sensex during the same period.

Dolly Khanna cuts stakes in six companies to below 1%

Dolly also trimmed her stake in Prakash Pipes, an SME plastic pipe maker, by 1.5% to 1.7%. The stock has dropped 46.8% in the past year, underperforming its industry by 51%.

During Q2, she reduced her holdings in Som Distilleries & Breweries by 0.4% to 2.4%. Trendlyne categorises the stock as a Falling Comet due to its bearish Momentum score. Dolly also cut her stake in KCP Sugar & Industries Corp by 0.1%, now holding 1.8%. This SME company also has a low Momentum score.

Additionally, Khanna made minor reductions in Emkay Global Financial Services. She now holds a 2.7% stake in the capital markets company.

Porinju reduces stake in three companies during Q2

Porinju Veliyath’s net worth declined 4.6% to Rs 209 crore as of November 20. During the quarter, he cut his stake in Aurum Proptech by 0.9%, bringing his holding down to 5.7%. The company is considered an Expensive Underperformer. It has been reporting losses since FY22 and posted a loss of Rs 2.8 crore in FY25.

The stock has dropped 22.6% in the past year, underperforming the IT consulting industry by 11.5%. Promoters have also reduced their holding by 2.7% QoQ in Q2.

Porinju Veliyath pares stakes in three firms during Q2

Porinju also lowered his stake in Duroply Industries and Kerala Ayurveda by 0.5% each. He now holds 5.5% and 4.5% in these companies, respectively. Both stocks feature in a screener of companies underperforming their industry price change during the quarter.

Duroply fell 30.3% in the past year, while Kerala Ayurveda gained 28.6%. Despite this, both stocks are down more than 30% from their 52-week highs.

The Baseline

24 Nov 2025

Indian states are having money troubles, as the Centre tightens control over their spending

By Divyansh Pokharna

India’s federal system has long depended on both the Centre and the states working smoothly together. States handle around 60% of public spending — they run schools, hospitals, roads, welfare schemes, and local infrastructure. They prioritize spending based on local needs, and are considered more in sync with what their people need, compared with the Central government in Delhi, which is far from the constituents. But for years, the financial health of the states has been weakening, and recent reports show the problem is getting worse.

States’ debt touched 27.5% of GDP in FY25, far above the widely recommended limit of 20%. This affects how much they can budget for new projects, and future growth. A major turning point came in 2017, when GST was introduced, and states gave up many of their earlier taxing powers. This reduced their ability to raise money independently.

At the same time, routine expenses like salaries, pensions, subsidies, and even “freebies” now consume over 60% of their revenues, leaving far less room for development projects.

Adding to this, the way the Centre transfers money has also changed. More funds come with conditions, limiting how states can spend them. Devendra Pant, Chief Economist at India Ratings & Research, notes, “Because cesses and surcharges are not shared with states, the pool is shrinking — even if the Centre’s tax collections grow, the actual money that comes back to states keeps falling.”

Put simply, states are losing financial freedom, and this affects their ability to function effectively. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at why this is not just a money problem — it affects states’ independence and the historical way India has grown, where both the Centre and the states drive the economy together.

The squeeze begins with GST shifts

The stress on state finances comes from three forces: changes in tax powers after GST, rising day-to-day expenses, and changes in how the Centre shares revenue. The introduction of GST in 2017 was the biggest turning point. Before GST, states could set their own value-added tax (VAT) and sales tax rates. After GST, most of these powers moved to the GST Council.

As a result, combined (Centre + states) revenue from taxes replaced by GST fell from 6.5% of GDP in FY16 to 5.5% in FY25, well below the 15th Finance Commission’s target of 7%. For states alone, these revenues declined from 2.9% of GDP in FY16 to 2.3% in FY21 before recovering again, though this is still short of earlier levels.

Meanwhile, the cost of running state governments has increased. Salaries, pensions, and subsidies — especially in electricity and agriculture — have steadily reduced the funds available for development.

Adding to the strain, some states spend a lot on popular ‘freebie’ schemes, which are politically attractive but put heavy pressure on their budgets. Bihar’s free electricity scheme of 125 units per month will cost the government over Rs 19,000 crore in FY26. The recent election-time freebies are projected at Rs 33,000 crore, equal to about 13.1% of the state’s revenue expenditure, adding to its debt of about Rs 4.1 lakh crore.

Andhra Pradesh lets women, girls, and transgender people travel free on many state buses, costing nearly Rs 1,940 crore a year. When combined with other welfare and schemes, the state’s outlay rises to nearly Rs 69,400 crore in FY25, absorbing 29.4% of its revenue expenditure.

Karnataka faces similar pressure. Its five guarantee schemes, including free electricity under Gruha Jyothi and free bus travel under Shakti, cost over Rs 53,000 crore in the FY25 budget, taking up around 18% of the state’s revenue expenditure. These programs divert funds from infrastructure, hospitals, roads, and factories — areas that support long-term growth.

Another issue is the Centre’s increasing use of cesses and surcharges to raise revenue, which are not shared with states. Based on FY26 budget estimates, the Centre is projected to collect around 13.8% of its gross tax revenue through these non-shareable levies. Even the International Monetary Fund noted that “the states bear most of the responsibility for delivering essential public services … but raise much less revenue than the Centre.”

GST 2.0 further bites into revenues

Pressure on states increased after the GST 2.0 rate cuts in September 2025. In October 2025, 20 out of 36 states and UTs recorded a drop in GST collections: Himachal Pradesh by 17% YoY, Jharkhand 15%, Uttarakhand 13%, Andhra Pradesh 9%, and Rajasthan 3%.

Analysts estimate the GST changes may cause a revenue shortfall of Rs 40,000–80,000 crore, with states likely to absorb most of the loss. As one Congress MP said, “The states will lose half or more of this, but neither GST nor cess will flow to them.”

In short, reduced tax power, rising fixed costs, and tighter central funding have squeezed states just when they need to spend more on development.

How are budgets being reshaped?

Growing financial stress is changing how states design their budgets. As debt increases, interest payments rise, leaving less room for new investments.

Only three states—Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Odisha—are within the recommended debt limit of 20% of GDP. Many others are far over it, with some exceeding 30-40%. Himachal Pradesh’s debt is close to 40% of GDP, West Bengal is around 38%, and Rajasthan is about 36%. In addition, state guarantees to loss-making public enterprises, especially electricity distribution companies, add further pressure that is not always visible in headline numbers.

This creates a difficult cycle. Weak revenue forces states to borrow more, higher borrowing raises interest payments, and rising interest costs leave even less room for investment. It also puts more pressure on the Centre, since the overall system depends on both sides contributing to economic progress.

To help with this, the Centre introduced the Scheme for Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment (SASCI), which provides long-term, interest-free loans. Between FY21 and August 2025, states received about Rs 4 lakh crore through this program. Initially, most loans were unconditional, but now only 38% of the funds are untied; the rest require states to meet specific reform-linked conditions.

Northeastern states, along with Sikkim and West Bengal, depend heavily on these central loans. Meanwhile, industrial and services-heavy states like Telangana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Karnataka rely on them for less than 10% of their capital spending.

The Reserve Bank of India has also raised the seriousness of the problem, urging states to borrow in a more predictable, planned manner, as total state borrowing is expected to reach a record Rs 12 trillion in FY26.

Rising tensions over resource sharing

As finances tighten, long-standing debates over how national resources are shared have become sharper. The current system, based on factors like income levels and population, aims to balance development needs. But richer states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka argue that the formula returns far less than what they contribute.

For every Rs 100 Maharashtra contributes in direct taxes, it receives only Rs 6.8 back. Karnataka receives Rs 12.5. Lower-income states receive far more than they contribute. Bihar gets roughly Rs 771 back for every Rs 100 of central taxes it contributes, while Uttar Pradesh receives around Rs 293. Rajasthan and several Northeastern states are also major net gainers because they have greater development needs and weaker tax bases.

This imbalance has sparked political tension. In September 2025, the Congress party used a Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report to accuse the Centre of practicing “coercive federalism.” It argued that the jump in state debt from Rs 17.6 lakh crore in 2013 to Rs 83 lakh crore in 2024 shows a deep imbalance in how resources are shared.

The larger risk is clear: if financially stressed states cannot invest in infrastructure and development, regional gaps will widen and the balance of India’s growth model will break, leaving the Centre to carry most of the load

The Baseline

21 Nov 2025

Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 21, 2025

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Indian Hotels Co (IHCL):

Thishotel company rose 2.2% last week as it moved beyond its core hotel business and entered into the wellness space. The companyacquired a 51% stake in Atmantan (Sparsh Infratech), a Pune-based wellness resort, for Rs 240 crore. Sparsh recorded a turnover of Rs 77 crore in FY25, up 19% from last year.

With this deal, IHCL plans to build a wellness platform using Atmantan’s programs and expertise. The idea is to tap rising demand for wellness travel and add a business that earns better margins than regular hotel rooms. According to Jefferies, this step can “improve cross-selling potential and build a cycle-resilient business mix without stressing the balance sheet.”

InQ2FY26, Indian Hotels posted a 15% YoY rise in net profit to Rs 285 crore. Revenue grew 12%, supported by better room rates and higher management fees from its asset-light hotel network. Costs were largely under control, and despite weak air travel and fewer international tourists, the EBITDA margin improved by 90 bps to 30.8%, as average room rates saw a rise.

CEO Puneet Chhatwalsaid bookings for November and December remain strong, adding that the company expects solid growth in the next two quarters. He confirmed the outlook of double-digit revenue growth for FY26, supported by major diplomatic events and a busy wedding season.

CFO Ankur Dalwani guided for capex of over Rs 1,000 crore in FY26 and about Rs 1,200 crore in FY27. He added that the Clarks acquisition — a heritage hotel chain in North India — is likely to “add roughly Rs 100 crore in profits” over the medium term. Management contracts, where the company operates hotels it doesn’t own, continue to deliver margins above 70%.

ICICI Securitiesmaintains a Buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 915, pointing to limited room supply in key markets. Strong room rates, upgraded premium hotels, and rising management fee income are expected to drive a 19.5% profit CAGR. This should take profits to around Rs 4,724 crore over the next three years.

2. Prestige Estates Projects:

Therealty giant jumped 3.2% on November 13 after announcing itsQ2FY26 results. Net profit skyrocketed 124% YoY to Rs 430.3 crore,beating Forecaster estimates. Revenue climbed 5.5%, fueled by steady demand for properties in Bengaluru, NCR, and Mumbai.

“We achieved a record-breaking sales of Rs 18,143 crore in the first half of this financial year, surpassing our entire FY25 sales in just 6 months,"said Executive Director Zayd Noaman. The NCR region alone drove 45% of H1 sales, a major pivot for the Bangalore-centric firm. With old inventory running low, new project launches powered 63% of bookings.

Prestige reaffirms its confident outlook for FY26, holding its presales guidance at Rs 27,000 crore, with most of it already secured in H1. The company is also expanding aggressively beyond its home turf, especially in West India. Management is earmarking Rs 8,000–10,000 crore in capex over the next three years to fuel growth in Mumbai and Pune. As part of this strategy, six Mumbai projects are already underway, with nearly 15 more planned for the region. Tariq Ahmed, chief executive officer for West India,said the strategy is to “expand more within Mumbai and explore other cities over time.”

Despite this success, management is hitting the brakes on further price hikes. MD Irfan Razacksaid prices have “reached certain peaks” and raising them could crush demand and affordability. The focus, he noted, has shifted to maintaining sales volume and protecting the bottom line, not chasing higher prices.

Following the results, Axis Directreiterated its ‘Buy’ rating, pointing to a massive Rs 43,000 crore launch pipeline and the company’s clear roadmap for upcoming projects. The brokerage believes this pipeline will power the company to smash its FY26 presales guidance.

3.Jubilant Foodworks:

This QSR player gained 7.3% on November 14 following the announcement of its Q2 results. The company's net profit surged almost threefold to Rs 186 crore, helped by lower finance costs and a one-time gain of Rs 84.7 crore from the sale of a Russian subsidiary.

Jubilant FoodWorks, through its step-down subsidiary Fidesrus BV, sold its 100% stake in Russian unit Pizza Restaurants LLC in July, as part of a strategy to focus on core markets (India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal) and streamline overseas operations.

Meanwhile, revenue grew 18.7% YoY to Rs 2,355.4 crore, driven by new store openings and stronger performance from Domino's India. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past two quarters. During the quarter, Domino’s Pizza reported like-for-like or LFL growth of 9.1%.

Analysts noted that while most fast-food chains faced pressures from muted demand and subdued foot traffic, Jubilant FoodWorks stood out with growth powered by its delivery business. The company also highlighted that strong demand for its premium offerings in Tier-2/3 cities helped offset slower growth in major tech hubs like Hyderabad, Bengaluru, and Gurugram.

Commenting on the company’s performance, MD and CEO Sameer Khetarpal said, “We remain optimistic about our performance in the second half of the year, with our October performance already ahead of plan. We are targeting revenue growth in the mid-teens for the full year, supported by 5-7% growth at our existing stores.” The company also aims to increase its operating profit margin by 200 bps by FY28, driven by making its stores more productive, and reducing losses in its non-Domino's brands.

The company has continued to expand its store network in the second quarter, opening 81 new Domino’s outlets and taking the total to 2,321 stores in India.

HSBC upgraded its rating on Jubilant Foodworks to a ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 660. The brokerage attributes the recent stock correction, strong quality of the company's franchise, ongoing strategic initiatives, and moderating competition as reasons for the upgrade.

4. Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX):

The stock of this capital markets company scaled a fresh 52-week high of Rs 9,975 on November 20, riding the wave of stellar second-quarter results announced earlier in the month. Its net profit surged 41.5% to Rs 156.4 crore compared to last year, fueled by a boom in the futures segment. Revenue also climbed nearly 35%, as sharp price swings in gold and silver drove a flurry of trading activity on the platform.

The company’s Q2 net profit marginally missed Trendlyne's Forecaster estimate by 0.9% due to an increase in employee expenses and subdued participation from Portfolio Management Services (PMS) clients. Its stock features in a screener of companies with no debt.

The exchange saw a massive spike in volume in the quarter, with the average daily turnover for futures jumping 55% and options rising 25%. More people are participating, with active client numbers up 16%. To keep this momentum going, MCX introduced several new products, including new monthly contracts for Silver and Nickel, and options on its Bullion Index. Management confirmed they have a robust pipeline of future products with regulatory approvals already in hand.

CEO Praveena Rai noted a shift in who is trading, pointing out that while domestic mutual funds and large institutional funds are very active, portfolio management services are yet to catch up. Addressing the potential launch of weekly options, she clarified that they are still under evaluation with no set timeline, as the exchange carefully reviews market dynamics and regulations.

Brokerage firm ICICI Direct has assigned a ‘Hold’ rating to the stock with a target price of Rs 10,000. The firm views MCX as a solid play on commodity volatility, particularly in oil and gold. With healthy traction in options trading and a steady stream of new clients and products, analysts expect steady business growth over the long term.

5. Alkem Laboratories:

This pharmaceutical manufacturer’s stock touched a new 52-week high of Rs 5,868 on November 13 after posting strong Q2FY26 results. Net profit grew 11.1% YoY to Rs 765.1 crore, driven by lower raw material expenses and delayed research & development expenses. Revenue jumped 15.7% to Rs 4,104.7 crore, supported by improvements in both domestic and international markets. Both net profit and revenue beat Forecaster estimates by 5.5% and 6.4%, respectively.

Alkem Labs’ six therapies, including anti-infectives, gastrointestinal, and vitamins, minerals & nutrients, outperformed the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM), helping the Indian business (70% of revenue) to grow. Recovery in the US business (19% of revenue) was driven by revenue from the launch of Sacubitril & Valsartan (medication used to treat chronic heart failure), and expansion in the contract development & manufacturing organisation (CDMO) vertical. Meanwhile, strong volume growth in Australia and Germany supported improvement in other international markets.

Following the results, Alkem Labs’ Chief Executive Officer, Vivek Gupta, noted, “We upgrade the US business estimates to mid-single-digit growth from the earlier estimates of 5%, driven by 3-4 potential product launches in H2FY26. The US CDMO plant is also slated to be operational in Q3FY26. We believe that the Indian market will outperform the market growth rate, which is expected to be around 8-8.5%, by 100-150 bps.”

Post results, ICICI Securities maintained its ‘Buy’ call on Alkem Labs, raising its target price to Rs 6,600 per share, a 15.8% upside. The brokerage remains positive on the company, supported by a strong rebound in branded formulations and trade generics, along with better traction in Enzene (Alkem's biotech research arm) and medtech ventures. It expects the company to deliver revenue and EBITDA CAGRs of 11.5% and 14.9%, respectively, over FY26-28.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

The Baseline

20 Nov 2025

Inflation Is near zero. So why Is the RBI not cutting rates?

By Swapnil Karkare

At a mandi in Mandsaur, Madhya Pradesh, Babbu Malvi was trying to sell his onion harvest. He realised his 600 kgs of onions would fetch him just Rs. 1,200. “It doesn’t even cover my travel. I don’t have money left for a beedi,” he said.

Onions make everyone cry: families when prices rise, farmers when they collapse. The price crash is happening across many items, from vegetables to steel and oil. And it has many things driving it.

Food and commodity prices are falling so fast that they’re pushing wholesale and consumer inflation down across the world. India is getting pulled along. In October 2025, consumer price inflation (CPI) rose just 0.25% YoY, a multi-year low. Wholesale price inflation was negative for the third time this year. This has triggered high hopes for December interest rate cut from the RBI.

The problem with inflation is that it can be too high, and also too low. Both can cause different kinds of pain. And India's story of falling prices has several drivers.

Blame it on Beijing?

If you’re looking for a villain, China is happy to volunteer. Years of overcapacity have pushed China into deflation for the third straight year. Chinese customers are also suffering from a crash in property prices, and are not spending. With domestic demand too weak to absorb Chinese production, China has simply exported the problem.

Export prices are down 25% since 2022, and China's share in global exports has climbed from 13% in 2018 to 18% today. China's goods-trade surplus with developing Asia has nearly doubled.

India is squarely in the blast radius of this Chinese export juggernaut, where we imported $91B worth of goods from them in the first nine months of 2025, up from $80B last year.

India's imports include electronics, plastics, metals, chemicals, machinery — basically the entire backbone of India’s manufacturing. And prices in these categories are tumbling everywhere you look:

PCs: –12%(Apr–Oct 2025)
PVC:–6%
Organic chemicals: –2%
Man-made fibres:–3%
Pig iron: –12%
Steel bars: –4%
Consumer electronics, appliances, auto components: –2%

When your biggest supplier slashes raw-material prices like this, domestic producers can’t keep up. They’ve asked for protection from the government, and India has responded with anti-dumping investigations on 30+ products, from steel to rubber. But these moves are band-aids that don’t shift wholesale inflation in the short term.

Logan Wright of the Rhodium Group says it bluntly: China’s deflation is systemic. A government stimulus won’t fix it. If India keeps importing from China, goods inflation will stay soft.

China aside, GST rate cuts have also cooled prices. And with food making up 40%+ of CPI, India’s inflation lives and dies by the farm. Right now, the farm sector has benefited from full water reservoirs, a solid monsoon, strong harvests, and stuffed government godowns. But bumper harvests have landed in the middle of a three-year global slide in food, fuel, and metal prices, and 2026 is likely to see a similar trend.

Some of the problem is self-inflicted, by our domestic policies. The Indian government's export bans on staples — wheat, rice, sugar, onions, you name it — keep domestic prices from rising, and also keep farmers poor by preventing them from exporting to more profitable markets. So these products flood the local market and tank prices. It’s the same consumer-first instinct that has stalled the India–US trade deal.

Look at onions: when exports were banned in 2024, wholesale prices in India crashed. In the UAE or Sri Lanka, farmers could’ve earned almost 10X the local rate. During this time, customs busted an onion-smuggling racket where onions were being labelled as grapes and exported, to evade the ban.

Some prices are still rising

Food prices may have dropped 4% YoY, but the rest of our monthly budget hasn’t got the memo. Housing prices have jumped 3%, health is up 4%, while education has risen 4% in the same period. This is core inflation — the slow-moving, stubborn part that excludes food, fuel, and metals. While goods are cooling rapidly, services have stayed expensive.

More and more, India’s inflation now dances to the tune of global commodity prices, not domestic trends. The RBI has limited control over that.

RBI forecasts are missing the mark

This shift towards global factors is also confusing the RBI’s models. Since Feb 2025, the RBI has cut its FY26 inflation forecast by 220 bps — from 4.8% to 2.6%. Even those revised numbers have turned out too high.

This matters, since the RBI sets its interest rates based on expected inflation. But by overestimating inflation for months, it kept interest rates much higher than needed. Emkay economist Madhavi Arora doubts these forecasts are useful anymore. The RBI seems to agree, as Governor Sanjay Malhotra has ordered a full review of the approach.

At these high interest rates, borrowing is expensive, so households and businesses pull back spending. A high repo rate also means that banks prefer parking cash with the RBI rather than lending it out. This has been a big driving factor in the slowdown in private sector capex that the government has been so frustrated about. Credit growth has sunk overall.

The economist Sanjeev Sanyal estimates the economy could save around 200 bps in financing costs with a rate cut, enough to break out of the low-spending loop.

RBI should (probably) be more aggressive

The RBI is facing one of the trickiest rate calls in recent memory. Inflation is near zero, but services inflation is sticky, and global forces like import costs and commodity prices are in the driver’s seat.

Still, with consumer demand still weak and prices likely to remain low, the RBI has room for a cut, and a chance to make up for months of forecasting misfires.

One thing that could slow a conservative Central Bank is if the upcoming GDP numbers blow past expectations. This would give the RBI another excuse to keep pressing the brakes.

As always,

The Trendlyne team

The Baseline

18 Nov 2025

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 18, 2025

By Ruchir Sankhla

1. Apollo Tyres:

ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this tyre manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 605, an upside of 15.7%. The company delivered strong Q2FY26 results, with revenue growing 6.2% YoY to Rs 6,860.8 crore. Analysts Shashank Kanodia and Bhavish Doshi believe that GST 2.0 reforms and expansion in Hungary will boost auto segment volumes, driving revenue growth in the near to medium-term.

Management expresses confidence in navigating industry challenges, focusing on margin expansion and growth plans. The company saw strong performance in the replacement and original equipment manufacturing (OEM) segments, and exports recovered. Analysts believe reducing GST on new tyres (28% to 18%) and tractor tyres (5%) will improve cost competitiveness and boost demand across OEM and aftermarket channels.

Kanodia and Doshi note that passenger car radial (PCR) capacity expansion will finish in FY27. They expect management to ramp up the plant's capacity to meet growing demand, adding that favourable raw material prices and robust replacement market demand will sustain its growth. They project Apollo Tyres to deliver an 8.2% revenue CAGR and a 37.3% net profit CAGR over FY26-27.

2. Tata Steel:

Axis Direct upgrades this steel manufacturer to a ‘Buy’ rating, with a target price of Rs 195, an upside of 13.1%. In Q2FY26, net profit surged 3.7 times YoY to Rs 3,101.8 crore, thanks to lower raw material and finance costs. Revenue increased 8.3%, driven by growth across all regions. Analyst Aditya Welekar highlights that India volumes rose to 5.6 million tonnes (MT) as the Kalinganagar Phase II plant in Odisha continued its ramp-up.

Management expects volume growth to improve as Kalinganagar reaches its full 5 MT capacity by the end of FY26. Additional capacity from the Ludhiana electric arc furnace in FY27 and from the Jamshedpur combi mill will support medium-term growth. The next major expansion involves scaling up Neelachal Ispat Nigam to 5 MT from 1.1 MT.

Welekar notes the company’s cost-cutting program has worked effectively, achieving savings of Rs 5,450 crore in the first half of FY26. He expects volume growth to continue as new capacity comes online, though overall volumes may moderate after FY26 until large expansion projects begin. Sustained cost optimisation and a better product mix will remain key drivers of strong earnings.

3. Biocon:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this biotech company with a target price of Rs 480, an upside of 13.9%. In Q2FY26, the company reported 19.6% YoY revenue growth to Rs 4,295.5 crore, driven by the biosimilars segment, which now accounts for over 60% of total sales. EBITDA rose 22% to Rs 840 crore, due to better operating leverage after adding three new facilities last year.

Analysts Tushar Manudhane and Vipul Mehta note that biosimilars remain the key growth driver, showing strong performance across North America, Europe, and emerging markets, boosted by new launches and market share gains. The generics segment also rebounded with 24% growth, helped by new US and European launches and contributions from facilities capitalised in FY25.

Biocon continues to reduce debt. Management confirms full repayment of the remaining structured debt by January 2026, with lower interest costs starting in H2FY26.

Manudhane and Mehta expect the company to enter a clear scale-up phase. They project 16% revenue growth and 77% net profit growth over FY26–28, supported by stronger biosimilar traction, a broader generics pipeline, and ongoing deleveraging efforts.

4. Welspun Corp:

Geojit BNP Paribas maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this iron & steel producer, with a target price of Rs 1,150, an upside of 27.3%. In Q2FY26, the company reported 32.5% YoY revenue growth to Rs 4,373.6 crore. EBITDA rose 48%, and margins improved 140 basis points. Net profit jumped 53.2%, thanks to tighter cost control and improved operational efficiency.

The company’s US subsidiary secured $715 million (over Rs 6,300 crore) in line-pipe orders for natural gas and natural gas liquids projects. These orders offer revenue visibility through FY28 and strengthen the company’s position in the US energy infrastructure chain. Demand in this sector is rising due to new gas projects and growing data centre requirements.

The order book stands at Rs 23,500 crore, providing a multi-year pipeline across domestic and international markets. Analyst Mithun T Joseph states this visibility comes from rising demand for energy transportation systems and steady demand from industrial and water pipeline projects.

Joseph believes Welspun Corp is well-positioned to benefit from global spending in energy infrastructure, its large order book, margin improvement, and a disciplined cost structure. Despite recent investments, the company maintains a healthy balance sheet and improving returns.

5. DOMS Industries:

Prabhudas Lilladher retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this stationary manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 3,085, an upside of 20.8%. The company delivered robust Q2FY26 results, with revenue jumping 23.8% and net profit growing 13.5% YoY. Analysts Jinesh Joshi and Stuti Beria note that healthy volume growth in the stationery segment (91.7% of revenue) amid new product launches across scholastic stationery, kits & combos, and office supplies supported revenue growth.

Management maintains its capex guidance at Rs 2,100-2,250 crore for FY26. This capex funds a 44-acre expansion project, enabling in-house tip production, in a bid to reduce procurement costs and boost margins. Extended monsoons delayed the expansion, but management expects production to start by Q1FY27.

Joshi and Beria add that the company’s focus on capacity expansion in the core stationery business, widening the product basket, and strengthening the distribution network will drive top-line and profitability. They expect DOMS Industries to deliver a 22% revenue CAGR and a 24% net profit CAGR over FY26-28.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

14 Nov 2025

Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 14, 2025

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. InterGlobe Aviation (Indigo):

Thisairline provider rose over 3.5% last week following itsQ2FY26 results. The main trigger was its EBITDA margin, which jumped 480 basis points YoY to 18.7%, supported by firm ticket pricing, lower fuel costs, and tight flight schedules that kept occupancy stable at ~83%.

Revenue grew 9.3% to Rs 18,555 crore. However, the rupee’s fall against the US dollar raised costs on the airline’s $9 billion debt, resulting in a net loss of Rs 2,580 crore. Excluding foreign exchange losses, net profit more than doubled to Rs 104 crore. Per-flight costs are expected to rise slightly as IndiGo adds capacity through damp leases amid grounding of 40 aircraft due to engine issues.

CFO Gaurav Negioutlined plans to expand IndiGo’s self-owned fleet and build an in-house maintenance facility in Bengaluru to reduce costs, with an investment of Rs 1,000 crore planned over the next few years. He also noted that the airline “aims for 12–14% capacity growth in FY26”, with revenue expected to remain steady or see a slight increase.

CEO Pieter Elbers highlighted the airline’s growth ambitions, saying IndiGo will accelerate global expansion. He added the airline will enhance premium services, “deploy A321XLRs for longer routes, and strengthen international connectivity”—all supported by a Rs 53,500 crore cash reserve and a strategic partnership with Asian Airlines in Greece.

ICICI Securitiesmaintains a Buy rating with a Rs 6,680 target, pointing to IndiGo's strong market position with limited flight availability across the market as a key advantage. Strong ticket prices and growth in business class and international routes will remain the key drivers of its profitability.

2. Asian Paints:

Thispaint company rose 11.7% over the past week, hitting a 52-week high of Rs 2,909.9 on November 14 after strongQ2FY26 results. Net profit grew 43% YoY and revenue increased 6.3%, both beatinganalyst estimates. The growth was driven by solid demand in the domestic decorative segment and a recovery across industrial and international markets.

MD and CEO Amit Synglesaid the domestic decorative segment recorded a 10.9% volume increase, despite a prolonged monsoon. “This growth was driven by our ability to generate demand across urban and rural areas through regional activation and strong marketing efforts,” he said, referring to localised promotional campaigns across different markets.

While core coatings and international businesses performed well, the Home Decor segment continued to facechallenges, with revenue declines in most verticals. Syngle acknowledged that this business was “a little bit of a disappointment in terms of how we performed,” adding that the company is putting “a lot of initiatives for the second half of the year to get it in a zone that starts contributing to the core business.” The company is addressing this with network expansion, new product launches for kitchens and wardrobes, and improved tech-led service.

Asian Paints continues toinvest in backward integration projects to improve product differentiation. Its Rs 3,000 crore Vinyl Acetate Monomer–Vinyl Acetate Ethylene (VAM–VAE) project is nearing completion, with operations expected to start in Q1FY27. This project aims to cut input costs by producing these raw materials in-house. For FY26, managementexpects steady demand, helped by the festive and wedding seasons, while a good monsoon should boost rural paint demand by improving farm income and housing activity.

Jefferies hasmaintained its “Buy” rating and raised its price target to Rs 3,300 from Rs 2,900, post result, noting "the King is back" after several weak quarters. The brokerage points to consistent volume growth and market share gains driven by brand and product investments. It added that despite rising competition, Asian Paints’ deep dealer relationships continue to support its dominance.

3. Bharat Forge:

This casting & forgings producer’s stock climbed 5.8% over the past week, hitting a new 52-week high of Rs 1,411 after posting strong Q2FY26 results. Net profit jumped 22.8% YoY to Rs 299.2 crore, driven by a better product mix, inventory reductions, and lower finance costs. Revenue increased 8.9% to Rs 4,085.4 crore, fueled by strong performance in the defence, aerospace, and casting segments.

Both revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 7.6% and 17.4%, respectively. Strong performance in the domestic market supported revenue growth, driven by strong order execution in the defence and high-horsepower engines. However, export revenue (~31% of total revenue) fell 20% due to a slowdown in the North American commercial vehicle market, caused by slow freight growth, weak demand, tariff uncertainty, and inventory destocking.

Addressing US exports, Bharat Forge’s Vice Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Amit Kalyani, noted, “Tariff-related impact during Q2 stood at Rs 24 crore. Overall, we remain hopeful that US tariffs on India will settle down in the near term. We expect Q3 performance to be similar to Q2, with an uptick in Q4 from improved execution in the defence segment, new orders in the aerospace segment and a ramp-up of JS Auto.”

Following the results, HDFC Securities maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Bharat Forge, setting a target price of Rs 1,620, a 16% upside. The brokerage remains positive, citing the long-term potential of the forging business (benefiting from China+1 and Europe+1 strategies) and the defence segment. It expects the company to deliver revenue and net profit CAGRs of 11.9% and 33.6% respectively, over FY26-28.

4.Bajaj Auto:

This 2&3 wheeler manufacturer has gained 1.4% over the past week following the announcement of its Q2 results on November 7. The firm beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 2.2%, and for net profit by 1.2%. Net profit jumped 53% YoY to Rs 2,122 crore, driven by inventory destocking. Revenue grew 19.5%, led by improvements in two-wheeler and commercial vehicle sales.

Bajaj Auto's total vehicle sales grew 6% to 12.9 lakh units in Q2. Executive Director Rakesh Sharma said, “The festive season and recent GST cuts triggered record retail sales, with strong demand for the Pulsar 125cc and 150cc models as customers upgraded.” Looking ahead, the company expects the domestic two-wheeler industry to grow by 6-8% and aims to grow faster than the market in the 125cc+ segment.

Exports were the primary growth driver, surging 13%. The company's international performance was particularly strong, growing 1.5X faster than the industry in key overseas markets. Management expects this momentum to continue, supported by a competitive advantage in markets like Mexico, where Bajaj benefits from lower import tariffs. Total two-wheeler sales for the quarter reached around 11.5 lakh units.

Meanwhile, Bajaj Auto’s electric vehicles business has continued to grow, adding a little over Rs 10,000 crore in revenue in the last two years. Although the company faced supply chain issues (such as a shortage of rare-earth magnets), it expects EV growth to accelerate once these issues ease. It plans to invest Rs 600-700 crore to improve its ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles and expand its EV lineup.

Following the company’s results, ICICI Direct maintained its ‘Buy’ rating with a Rs 10,250 target price. The brokerage believes that a strong export outlook, leadership in the domestic EV market, and a unique pipeline of upcoming products are expected to drive sustained growth for the company.

5. Aurobindo Pharma:

The stock of this pharmaceutical company climbed over 7% in the past week, even as it reported mixed second-quarter results on November 5th. The company’s net profit grew 8.2% YoY to Rs 581.4 crore, powered by strong performance in the European market. However, its total revenue remained flat, held back by a 17% drop in its Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) business and approval delays at a key manufacturing facility, Eugia Unit-III.

The company’s Q2 net profit missed Trendlyne's Forecaster estimate by 3.9% due to increase in employee expenses and muted growth in the US. As an export-driven company, the US is its largest market, making up 44% of all revenue, with Europe following at 30%. This heavy reliance means any slowdown in the US market can have a significant impact. The stock appears in a screener of companies with rising net cash flow and operating cash flow, supported by its expansion into complex areas such as biosimilars.

The clear star of the quarter was the European business, which continued its strong growth streak with an 18% jump in revenue. The company’s CFO, S. Subramanian, stated they are "firmly on track" to hit their €1 billion annual revenue goal from Europe by the end of FY26. Management also expects its injectable drug business to improve, driven by new product launches and a recent acquisition in the US.

Mr. Subramanian added that the company's new oral dosage facility in China is ramping up. The site, which has already received 10 approvals for Europe, is on track to become profitable by the end of the fiscal year, reinforcing its strategic importance to the company's global network.

Looking ahead, brokerage firm ICICI Direct has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 1,375. It believes the current slowdown is temporary and expects the regulatory logjam at its Eugia manufacturing plant to be resolved by the end of FY26. The firm sees the US business recovering in FY27, while noting that Europe has clearly emerged as the company's new growth driver.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

The Baseline

14 Nov 2025

What’s new on Trendlyne: High performing baskets, AI assistants and more

We’ve been busy with some big new launches on Trendlyne, which will make your trading better and easier. Here’s what’s new!

1. Trendlyne Baskets

Three new high-performing baskets have launched on Starfolio, curated for different investing styles.

Momentum 7: for those who love speed and growth, built using our upgraded Momentum score.
Dividend 7: steady set of high-performing, dividend-paying stocks.
Select 5: our signature basket of five standout stocks for long-term investing.

You can explore all three Trendlyne Baskets here.

2. Import your Groww portfolio

No more manual uploads! You can now directly import your Groww portfolio into Trendlyne with a couple of clicks. Track, analyze and manage your holdings seamlessly.

Read the quick FAQ here.

3. Individual Superstar alerts

Follow your favorite superstar, and never miss their next move. You can now set instant alerts for individual or institutional superstars so you follow just your preferred investors.

How to set it up:

A. From the Superstar portfolio section, click Add All Superstar Alerts and then select Individual Superstar Alerts or click on the bell icon in the table.

B. From an Individual superstar page

Click Add Individual Alert, and use the toggle to enable or disable alerts for that superstar (for example, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Associates’s portfolio).

4. Screener: Easy mode

Discover great stocks in seconds! No complex setup needed. Our new easy stock screener lets you filter using fundamental, technical, and comparative parameters in drop down mode, all in one screen.

You can access the Screener Easy Mode using this link.

5. Follow trades by US politicians

Curious what US lawmakers are buying and selling? Trendlyne’s Politician trades feature lets you follow stock trades by political pros like Nancy Pelosi, Tommy Tuberville, Josh Gottheimer, and more.

You can access the Politician Trades using the following link.

6. SmartOptions now supports Zerodha & Upstox

Great news for F&O traders – SmartOptions is now integrated with Zerodha and Upstox. Connect your broker, sync positions, analyze and execute orders directly from SmartOptions.

Manage your connected brokers here.

Broker Connect FAQs here.

7. Ask AI to optimise your strategy

We are really excited about this one. Meet your new AI strategy assistant on the SmartOptions Strategy Builder.

Once you select a strategy, click Ask AI - Optimise Your Strategy and type your query. The AI gives fast, personalized insights for both simple and complex setups.

Here’s what it can do:

Create: Suggests strategy ideas for your market view.
Analyze: Explains risks, Greeks, and break-even points in plain English.
Optimize: Recommends strike, margin, and timing tweaks.
Hedge: Sets risk boundaries and helps you protect positions.

The Baseline

13 Nov 2025

Global indices climb toward record highs, but valuations flash warning signs

By Divyansh Pokharna

Global stock markets are racing toward record levels, but not all gains are created equal. From Wall Street to Tokyo and Frankfurt to Mumbai, each market offers a different story.

Most major global indices are now near their 52-week highs. Their one-year and quarterly performances however, show some differences. The S&P 500 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 have surged on technology and policy tailwinds, while India’s Nifty 500, despite strong economic growth, has posted the weakest one-year return among peers.

Some markets have lost steam. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Germany’s DAX, though strong over the past year, have flattened recently as growth momentum slowed.

The Financial Stability Board (FSB), which monitors global financial risks, recently cautioned that asset prices may be rising faster than fundamentals. FSB Chairman Andrew Bailey said, “Valuations may now be out of step with the uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, leaving markets vulnerable to sudden and disorderly corrections.”

To make sense of the divergence between markets, we look at global indices through three lenses — their one-year performance, recent quarterly momentum and current P/E ratios. This helps reveal growing, rebounding and overvalued markets. A strong one-year gain can look exciting, but if the recent quarter is flat, it might suggest a slowing rally.

Tech and policy fuel the market leaders

The United States has been the heartbeat of the global equity rally. The S&P 500 has risen 14% over the past year and another 7% in the last quarter. This is largely thanks to excitement around artificial intelligence and the outsized performance of a few mega-cap technology firms in the index. The Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100) gained 22% annually and 10% quarterly, as investors doubled down on technology leaders.

The ‘Magnificent 7’ — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, and Tesla — together contributed nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s yearly advance, according to recent estimates.

Some analysts warn that valuations of big tech have run too far. Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick recently warned of a possible “10–15% drawdown” in global equities due to overheating valuations, suggesting investors remain alert to correction risks.

Across the Pacific, Japan’s Nikkei 225 has been equally impressive, surging 29% over the past year and 22% in the recent quarter — showing that most of its gains came just in the last few months.

The sharp quarterly rise was fueled by a record-breaking rally in technology and export-oriented stocks, with the index posting its best monthly gain in three decades in October. Investors also cheered the election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s new leader, which boosted hopes for fresh government spending and continued monetary support.

A weak yen added more momentum to the rally by making Japanese exports cheaper abroad, lifting profits for major names like Toyota, Sony, and chip equipment makers. With strong tech momentum, steady policy support, and foreign investors returning, Japan’s market ended the year on a high note, marking one of the world’s biggest rallies.

Taiwan has followed a similar path. The Taiwan Weighted Index climbed 19% over the past year and 16% in the last quarter, suggesting again that most of its gain came recently. The momentum is largely powered by semiconductor exports and the island’s central role in the global AI chip supply chain.

Australia’s S&P ASX 200, up 6% annually and 0.2% quarterly, sits mid-pack among global peers. Its performance reflects steady commodity exports and stable financial sector earnings. Iron ore prices have stayed firm, benefiting miners like BHP and Rio Tinto, while strong bank profits have cushioned the index against global volatility. With valuations around 20X earnings, Australian equities appear balanced — neither overheated nor undervalued.

Markets slowing after a strong year

Hong Kong and mainland China are moving at different paces. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 29% over the past year and 7% in the last quarter. The rally was driven by Chinese government stimulus and a recovery in tech names like Tencent and Alibaba. However, ongoing problems in the property market have started to dampen investor confidence.

China’s Shanghai Composite, on the other hand, maintained steadier momentum — rising 16% over the year and 10% in the last quarter. The gains came as policymakers stepped up infrastructure spending and eased credit conditions to support manufacturing and industrial activity. Still, at around 11X earnings, valuations remain low, and investors are cautious about whether these measures can deliver a sustained recovery.

Germany’s DAX has also delivered strong yearly gains, bouncing back from an energy crisis. But it has been flat in the recent quarter as manufacturing growth slowed. The transition to green energy and rising business costs have also tempered investor enthusiasm. At around 17.5X P/E, the index looks fairly valued, but lacks clear short-term growth drivers.

In contrast, the UK’s FTSE 100 has been more stable. It posted solid one-year and quarterly gains, reflecting resilience across large-cap sectors such as energy, banking, and mining. With valuations around 19X earnings and proximity to its yearly high, the FTSE 100 appears to be holding its ground better than many of its European neighbors. UK’s weak GDP growth however, may limit the upside.

India’s steady, high-priced growth

The Nifty 500 has been the clear laggard among major global indices — up only 5.5% over the past year and 4.6% in the latest quarter. The recent quarterly uptick came after a weak start to 2025, helped by better-than-expected Q2 results, easing inflation, and the government’s GST cuts that boosted consumption and corporate margins.

Still, the broader one-year performance remains soft due to foreign outflows, tariff pressures, and geopolitical risks. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net sellers in 2025, pulling out nearly Rs 2.6 lakh crore YTD, even as steady SIP-led domestic inflows provided some support to the market. Meanwhile, the US raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, weighing on exports and overall sentiment.

Cross-border strikes after terror incidents increased risk perception and led to short-term foreign outflows, putting more strain on valuations. Moreover, India missed out on the AI-driven rally that powered developed markets, given its relatively limited exposure to high-growth tech.

At a lofty 24X PE—one of the highest in the world—valuations have capped returns. Despite this, Goldman Sachs has upgraded India from “neutral” to “overweight,” reversing its October 2024 downgrade.

Analysts believe the year-long slump in earnings forecasts has now bottomed out, as September-quarter results were stronger than expected. Goldman pointed to growth-friendly measures such as GST cuts, easy liquidity, and RBI rate reductions, adding that “India’s high valuation is now justified by robust domestic investment flows and policy support.

The Baseline

12 Nov 2025

Retail investors have driven an IPO boom in 2025

After the 2024 boom in IPOs, investors may have expected a quieter year in 2025, especially as the broader market turned volatile. But the train has not slowed down: companies big and small have continued to line up with their offerings, and investors have been more than willing to buy.

This year, nearly two-thirds of companies that went public saw listing gains. Even if you closed your eyes and picked an IPO - not exactly a sophisticated strategy - you had a good chance of making a listing profit.

A big driver of the momentum in the IPO market? India's retail investors.

The rise of the retail investor

India's families now invest around 5% of their savings into stock market shares and mutual funds. While this sounds tiny, it is up from 2.5% in 2020, a doubling in just five years. Retail interest in IPOs has surged - just 7% of the 300+ IPOs in 2025 got less than 1X subscription of available shares from retail investors. The median oversubscription from retail investors in the IPO market stands at 7.7X of available shares. The democratization of the IPO market is well underway.

Some big budget companies went public in 2025, including Tata Capital, LG Electronics, and Groww. Next year, Reliance Jio's listing is among a bumper set that will keep everyone watching the IPO market.

India is now the fourth most active IPO destination in the world, and the 300+ listings in 2025 have already raised almost $16 billion. Non-services sectors like general industrials, textiles and construction companies were major players, and around half of the new listings in these sectors held on to their gains over the year.

Small is king: Issue sizes are highly skewed towards smaller players

While India's IPO market is booming, a large percentage of the IPOs - over 70% - are SMEs, and the average issue size is tiny, with a median market cap of around Rs. 249 crore.

But this fact is not exactly deterring investors. The company with the highest retail oversubscription (of over 1400X) in 2025, Austere Systems, with a market cap of Rs. 15.7 crore and weak financials, has steadily fallen in share price since its listing. IPOs like Citichem India and Fabtech Cleanrooms, with market caps of Rs 17.7 crore and Rs 27.7 crore, were oversubscribed in the retail segment by over 522X and 950X. While Fabtech is sitting on a current gain of 286%, the very low traded volumes and high volatility of these stocks make them risky investments for retail investors.

The challenge for retail investors putting money into these IPOs is that these small issues come with higher downside and liquidity risk. These stocks see big intraday swings, and wide bid-ask spreads. Exiting these stocks at peak gains is difficult.

Average gains have come down in 2025

While the IPO market has kept its momentum going, the volatility of 2025 has extracted a price. Average listing gains have come down compared to previous years, and is now at its lowest point. This is despite mega IPOs like LG Electronics getting intense subscription interest.

The show is only getting bigger

The crowd is here and the stage is set. The IPO boom is expected to continue in 2026, especially if the broader market stages a recovery, with a US trade deal and better than expected quarterly results for Indian companies.

But the question of "will the company deliver post its listing date" is not being asked often enough. As the market continues to mature, retail investors should be looking at new issues beyond listing day performance.

Sector tailwinds and valuation multiples compared to listed peers give investors a good idea of whether their bets have real value. Promoter lock-in periods, and margin trends are other factors. About two-thirds of IPOs this year have been a way for owners to exit. 63% of shares sold in 2025 have been classified as “offers for sale”, rather than “fresh issues”.

Promoters also often try to time their IPOs with good results, so a higher focus on the overall quality of earnings beyond the most recent quarter and one-off cash flows, is another important factor. With smaller volatile issues dominating the market, investors need to look below the hood at the numbers, to see if the company has fuel to go past its listing momentum.